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User: Inflatable+Hippo

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  1. Re:Quantifying the randomness on Fooled by Randomness · · Score: 1

    I have to agree with all the points you make, but bringing things (in a desperate attempt to not be marked off-topic) back to randomness, we frequently have insufficient or worse, useless/wrong information about systems.

    Referring back to the tree example, yes knowing what species of tree it was would help you predict it's longevity, so would an understanding of the soil type, local environmental laws, climate, aspect etc. etc.

    Where do you stop? How much would this data/knowledge actually improve your guess?

    I find that the 95% of lasting >x/39 is at least a good starting point that can be refined up or down as knowledge increases.

    Often in life we are trying to evaluate comparative risks of things we have a poor understanding of.

    For example I often apply it to the life of theories and assertions (however "proven" they're deemed by "experts").

    Say (as so often happens) a food that humans have been eating for decades/centuries is suddenly flagged as a dangerous (like fried foods are suddenly a lethal carcinogen), how much should I trust the longevity of that belief?

    Alternatively suppose a new "wonder non fattening oil" or G.M. wheat appears on my breakfast table, how much should I trust the assertion that it's safe?

    I'm not a biochemist but I at least have a way of approaching the problem. I'm free to refine my odds as people drop dead around me - or not.

    How I relate the CONSEQUENCES to the RISK is, as you imply, a matter of judgement.

    However, the God of Randomness only takes short vacations from my life, so far, statistically speaking...

  2. Quantifying the randomness on Fooled by Randomness · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Fantastic sounding book, I've ordered it.

    I've long since been a believer in the "largely random" nature of the world and this puts me in mind of a wonderful piece of "research" I came across in New Scientist a few years ago.

    It cut through a lot of bullshit to ask the question:

    "can you predict the longevity of a system or state if you know almost nothing about it"?

    i.e. life's pretty random and bothering to analyse the details will only get you so far :-)

    So how can we address, from a probabalistic standpoint, questions like:
    "How long will the pyramids stand"?
    "How long before my bank goes bust"?
    "How long before we're hit by an asteroid"?

    The reasoning went like this:

    Take any "thing"/"system" etc. with a finite existance and ask the question:

    "With a 95% certainty, how much time does it have left"?

    For the sake of argument lets say you plant a tree, and you know nothing about trees.

    Ten years later you come back and the tree is still alive and so you ask the above question about the tree.

    Well, the tree is clearly alive but you don't know where "now" is in it's lifespan.

    From a purely probabalistic point of view you've got a 50% chance that "now" is the middle half of it's life, i.e. you're not in the 25% of it's "youth" or the 25% of it's old age. So thats a 50% chance that it's had 75% of it's life already (middle age + youth).

    Turning this into an equation, if:
    x = current age
    y = total age
    p = probability

    then: (it helps with a diagram)
    x = py + (y-py)/2
    or, rearranging to solve for y:
    y = 2x/(p+1)

    Going back to our tree then, if it's 10 years old
    it's got:
    95% chance of making it to 10.26 years
    50% chance of making it to 13.33 years

    The magic figure I keep in my head is that if you know NOTHING about something, you've got a 95% chance that it will last 1/39th as long again.

    I find this little nugget invaluable when considering how much to spend on insurance or investments - cos I know/care NOTHING about them.

    After all, why bother with the details, life is random :-)

  3. Re:tsk tsk... on Linux to Power Most Motorola Phones · · Score: 2, Interesting

    > I'm all for Linux but I'd have to say this is just a marketing strategy. Motorola is desperate.

    And so they're not sitting on their laurels and making safe "me too" decisions that don't differentiate their products from their rivals. Good.

    I was at CeBit last year as a phone application developer and I spoke at length (or tried to) to all the major handset manufacturers about various issues to do with application distribution and certification.

    Of the three (Sony/Ericsson, Nokia, Motorola) I found the Motorola guys very open and genuinely helpful. They understood that they had to get developers on board and genuinely seemed interested in how they could help. That kind of stuff makes an impression, here I am singing there praises after all.

    The other two companies stands were just the usual "look at our shiny stuff" kind of thin and the staff were there to give out badges and look cool. This was during the "trade only" so it's not like they were busy.

    So this news doesn't suprise me at all, it shows they've still got the same attitude I saw last year. It's fantastic news for developers, we get a stable tool chain and stable OS from the off.

    Compare this the state of WindowsCE/PocketPC/Stinker, PalmOS 3.x/4.x/5.x (with Palm or handspring variant libs) etc. I'm no Symbian developer so I can't comment on that but the other "two" (feels more like 7 or 8) OSs are a nightmare when it comes to getting reliable GPRS connections to stay up and work reliably. Kind of useful in a phone don't you think?

    So... Pleased am I.

  4. Distributed computing... on Microsoft Applies For .NET Patent · · Score: 1

    ... goes way back.

    In the 80s I worked for a company (Inmos) that made parallel/distributed compute nodes (Transputers).

    Believe me, every conceivable means of distributing work around a network of "compute resources" has been thought of, written up and implemented before the web existed.

    Prior art fills the shelves of every good university library.

  5. Re:Hoax on TiVo switches off UK sales · · Score: 1

    Fair point - it looks like the service is continuing.

    However, it comes to the same thing in the end.

    I went to comet to try and buy a Tivo on Sunday. They told me they'd run out and no replacement was expected.

    If Tivo arn't getting any new customers then any rate of churn is going to see their subscription income dwindle to zero in short order.

    And they'll shut it down.

  6. The Wider View on TiVo switches off UK sales · · Score: 4, Informative

    The withdrawl of tivo from the UK is in part related to the wider mess that is UK terrestrial broadcasting, and there's a bunch of stuff going on that anyone outside the UK wouldn't be expected to know, leave now if you don't care.

    There are theoretically 5 analogue terrestrial channels in the UK, and in many places only 4.

    There is also no single widely available cable network either and if you do have access, it's typically a local monopoly and it's pretty expensive - typically £20-30/month for a descent package.

    The Sky (satellite) service is polular but also expensive.

    Several years ago a digital terrestrial service was launched and failed miserably and with much fanfare. This has recently been re-launched as entirely an entirely free-to-view service and looks set to succeed.

    Now as you can see, we have a real mess of technologies here and if a company such as Tivo wants to sell a premium recorder product they've got a problem. Their marked is spread across satellite, and a multiplicity of analogue/digital terrestrial and cable formats.

    What decoders do they build into their device?

    1. Sky which re-transmits all of the (good) free-to-view channels have their own HD based recorder.

    2. People with only terrestrial analogue are happy with VCRs

    3. The cable market is fragmented technologically.

    4. Digital terrestrial is a new but very small market.

    So they gave up, and I don't blame them - it's a mess.

    B.T.W. Pace have a digital terrestrial HD recorder which might be interesting but it was due before Christmas and there's still no sign.

    Wow I'm boring.

  7. Consider Apple... on Rise of the 'Consumer' Linux Distribution · · Score: 5, Insightful

    and what they've done with OS-X on BSD.

    That level of quality, reliability and integration is a tremendous achievement for Apple. However, it's a fairly large organisation that cross-subsidises its software costs with sales of hardware, unlike most of the linux disto companies - so far.

    If RedHat, MandrakeSoft, Lindows or whoever could produce a product with this level of finish I'd buy it in a heartbeat and bear the susbscrition costs with joy.

    Apple have at least shown what can be done and raised the bar quite significantly.

    I'm optimistic that, bit by bit, the better linux distros will at least catch up.

    But in the meantime here I am, wallet out and still waiting...

  8. We made something *like* these as a kid. on Potato Bazookas · · Score: 1

    Far less sophisticated, but we got >>200M out of them!

    We used scaffolding poles - 6ft hardened metal tubes. We'd hammer one end flat (difficult!) to crimp it - finished.

    Then we'd balance it on a log, throw in a banger (British name for a small one shot fire cracker - illegal now) down the tube and throw apples, rocks, gravel, lunch, anything down afterwards.

    To this day I can still remember sending salvoes of unripe fruit hurtling into the stratosphere.

    Disgraceful :-)

  9. Evidence will be revealed to the U.N... on Potato Bazookas · · Score: 1, Funny

    ... That Iraq has been openly farming potato crops.

  10. So where's the Nintendo phone? on Bluetooth, GSM, and Gameboy · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Nintendo have been pushed into 3rd place in the console market, how long before they start slipping in the handheld market too?

    The majority of people demonstrably are willing to only carry one piece of electronics around with them, and the phone is clearly it. That's why over the last 18 months more and more of the functions that used to be separate have been folded into the phone.

    Witness products from Nokia, Motorola and Ericsson that combine phone, camera, walkman, PDA etc. into their phones in various combinations.

    I've long expected Nintendo to announce their own phone or establish an alliance with one of the big phone handset manufacturers, but I haven't heard anything as yet.

    They'd better hurry if they don't want to miss the boat, assuming they haven't already.

  11. Wouldn't it be better if... on First HDD MPEG4 Video Camcorder · · Score: 4, Interesting

    ... the camera were a small wireless capture device and the recording device could be left on your belt or in a bag with it's own monster batteries? Hell it could be your laptop.

    That way the device in your hand has no moving parts, cost less and it would be easy to upgrade the storage separately.

  12. Why will this work? on Six Giant Music Retailers Will Try Online Sales Together · · Score: 1

    1. When I *BUY* music I want to *GET* something and I don't think I'm alone in this. Many studies have shown that people like physical artifacts, something you can poke with a stick and say: "that's mine"!

    2. The duplication and shipping costs of sending me a CD are as nothing to the overheads (and profits) of the music industry itself, so I assume that I'm not going to save a great deal of money buying the music data rather than a disc.

    3. Even if they did deep and sell it cheap they'll only undermine their own dwindling CD sales.

    It just seems like they want to hasten their own demise.

  13. Stopping Spam on Using gzip As A Spam Filter · · Score: 4, Insightful

    > stupid filtering isnt gonna get you rid of spam... go complain at spammers upstream providers...

    Filters only work to a limited extend, and so might shutting down the spammers, if it were possible.

    But neither is going to solve this problem.

    The only solution I can think of is wide-spread adoption of PGP (or equivalent) aware mailers and certification of mail.

    The problem with mail addresses is that you have no control over their spread. If I give one to a company it'll usually leak out in the end and it's open season on my inbox.

    However if "genuine" mail is certified and mailers use certification validity as a filtering critera then it simplifies the game hugely.

    Your mailer can spot the people you've genuinely given your address to, and naturally "distrust" uncertified (effectively anonymous) mail or mail whos certificate has been revoked or is unknown to you.

    The "only" things standing in the way of this are:

    1. Slow adoption of certification/encryption in mass market mailers. Usually poor or missing.
    2. Cost/diffiulty of getting a valid certificate (e.g. with Verisign).
    3. The pain of typing a password every time you send a mail.
    4. It only works if everyone joins in.

    But nothing's for free and this strikes at the heart of emails useability.

    I'm continually suprised by the lack of certification use at least by large corporations and governments, but I suppose it removes plausible deniability :-)

  14. Re:Last unspoilt place on Earth on South Pole to Get Highway · · Score: 1

    Just watched koyaanisqatsi with my 3.5 year old son.

    Got past 20 minutes of mind numbingly beautiful scenery followed by some scenes of strip mine blasting and atomic tests.

    Two minutes later:

    "Want more 'splosions Daddy... What gets `sploded next"?

    The planet is doomed.

  15. Cross Compilation on The Future of Java? · · Score: 1

    I've considered doing this on several occasions, but always bailed when it comes to outputting class files.

    It's far easier to use Java as the output of your "compiler" and then let javac do the hard work for you.

    It's also a lot easier to debug too.

    With a little effort the auto-generated code can be pretty readable and sensibly relate back to the original "code".

    You get to the same place in the end though, and probably quicker (from a development time perspective).

    I used to use this lovely thing called MetaTool (from AT&T) for this sort of stuff but now there's tools like javacc that I think are free and, of course, written in java.

  16. Sweeney Todds Cartridge Refills on Produce Organs...From Printer · · Score: 0, Funny

    Refills don't have to cost an arm and a leg!

    Well, not your arms and legs personally...

  17. Eeeeeeuuuuu! on Produce Organs...From Printer · · Score: 3, Funny

    > Apparently the work is a first step towards printing complex tissues or even entire organs.

    Imagine clearing out the jams in your flesh jet...

  18. Re:I don't get it on Cloned Cat Not a 'Carbon Copy' · · Score: 1

    This did actually happen to someone I went to school with.

    A new employee joined a different department in a company I worked for. He looked really familiar and his name rang a bell.

    I kept thinking that he looked really like someone I went to school with. If only his hair were a different colour.

    Eventually I went and spoke to him and it turned out it was the same guy. He did volunteer that his hair had changed colour as an adult but didn't say why.

  19. Re:not 'totally harmless to humans' on U.S. Air Force Developing Microwave Weapon · · Score: 1, Funny

    > people with pacemakers, or anyone nearby on life support or similar would still be affected.

    Not on the "defrost" setting.

  20. Re:I don't get it on Cloned Cat Not a 'Carbon Copy' · · Score: 5, Funny

    > I am genetically identical today to how I was yesterday, but I expect I'll do loads of different stuff.

    We change a great deal over time. For example I was blond and blue eyed until I was two and now I'm grey/green eyed and dark haired (what's left of it)

    My mother asked a Nurse about this at the time (1960's) and was told that changes like this are quite normal over time.

    This did confuse my mother somewhat since it happened to me over a period of 5 minutes when I was left outside a shop with our dog.

  21. Re:Datatag, "antitheft" transponders on Michelin to Include RFID Transmitter in Every Tire · · Score: 1

    And here they are:

    DataTag

  22. Datatag, "antitheft" transponders on Michelin to Include RFID Transmitter in Every Tire · · Score: 1

    I have owned several motorbikes and have peppered them all with RFIDs with my own fair hands.

    The product is called "DataTag" and consists of a pack of differing sized/shaped chips and glue/tools to fit them.

    Most of them were small plastic "asprins" that you could cover in glue and then drop into a hole in the frame, insert into the wheel etc.

    My favorite though was a transparent "matchstick" that came with a syringe style applicator to insert into the seat foam, it was totally invisible once fitted.

    The hand scanners cost arout £600 5 years ago, and are probably much cheaper now.

    It did occur to me at the time how easy it would be to "tag" something or someone else.

    As it turned out I was proved right but in a different context. An article in a UK paper had a case of an interesting "practical joke": An employee in a shop "borrowed" an item of a co-workers clothing (possibly jeans) and carefully stitched in security tag in the hem.

    Everytime he went in or out of the shop (and many others) all the alarms went off. How aggravationg is that?!?!

  23. Re:Some Points on Effectiveness on Michelin to Include RFID Transmitter in Every Tire · · Score: 1

    > First, I've never heard of police cars being equipped with live OCR equipment.

    Here in the UK they're in use. Various motorways are being monitored from fixed scanners. There are also active projects looking at automating the extraction of number plate data from speed cameras. Speed cameras are also moving from off-line photo-chemical film devices to fully electronic on-line devices.

    Roll all this up with the RFIDs in the tyres (and chassis drivers shoes, watch, fillings, lunch etc) and bingo.

  24. What's in a name: JamCracker on F'd Companies · · Score: 5, Funny

    > Here's Kaplan's contemplation on the value of domain name Wapit.com (now defunct)...

    Some of these names are ludicrous arn't they? I remember reading lists of these names copyrighted (or whatever) by "branding" specialists just waiting for some fine 200 year old company to come along for a corporate comb-over.

    I specifically remember seeing the name "JamCracker" and thinking, good grief, the picture that paints in my head is just not to be shared!

    However, somone ponied up: Jamcracker, Inc. - Managed IT Solutions

    I'm sure they're lovely people but suddenly I'm not hungry...

  25. Re:Once again on Peephole Displays · · Score: 1

    > ... the porn industry leads the way in video display technologies!

    Yep, gambling just needs the basic low bit rate comms infrastructure.