The Inquisition didn't officially end until the 1800s. It turned Spain from the richest, most powerful nation in the world to a nothing, has been state. It caused many of its most educated and skilled to flee.. What else? A lot..
Might doesn't make right. Intimidation doesn't make global warming stop. Stupidity doesn't bring back innovation when its been silenced. Milking monopolies and intellectual property doesn't substitute for creation of new wealth.
The GOP may be able to maintain control of the US. They may be able to suppress our dealing with these things, even as people die from the natural disasters..skin cancer..pollution, etc. caused by their brain-dead greed-centric policies..
But the WORLD and its ideas and economic vitality will just route itself around (US, or other) censorship... don't you think?
It would be nice if China had some kind of realization when their astronauts are up in space, flying around the Earth, looking down on a fragile ball, without any borders visible on the 'map' - that we are all one people, one race, one world.. a very fragile and exceedingly precious world.. here in our tiny, five mile thick zone of comfort, balanced between a world that is very very cold (space) and one that is very very hot.. (magma)
But instead, the Chinese that I have spoken to don't see this as some kind of triumph for mankind and instead, see it as 'catching up with America' - a continuation of what has become a national obsession.. Of course, they are catching up with America in 1963.. (which was catching up to the then-USSR a year earlier) but...
Ultimately, I think its a good thing.. The space cooperation between the US and the USSR was clearly, in retrospect a BIG thing in improving the relations between our two countries.. It may have saved us from a nuclear war during those years..
Now I'm praying that we don't end up in one in the 21st century.. Seems like both China and the US are currently ruled by the same kinds of idiots.. the kind that doesnt mind seeing millions of people die if its good for profits..
But.. any scientist could tell them.. IT WONT BE..
As Einstein said "We can't tell you what weapons World War III will be fought with, but we can tell you that World War IV, IF THERE IS ONE will be fought with sticks an arrows..
If we live to see it.. if the human race survives..
I'm really glad that you (and others like you) seem to be tackling this aspect of the corporate unaccountability problem. I'll be checking your web site out. What do you think of the movement to end corporate personhood? There is a lot of evidence that the priginal Santa Clara decision that gave personhood to corporations was never made as such, but was written into the record by an overly-enthusiastic clerk, Bancroft, who had a vested interest in corporate personhood.. (he had been a lawyer for the railroad companies, who were the pharma/oil corps of his day)
Actually, my experience was a lot like yours.. I was doing well until around two years ago, but I'm struggling again now..
I don't think my experience is that atypical.. The powers that be are getting their revenge on those Internet geeks for screwing up their plans for global domination..
Seriously. The Internet changed everything, and they want to make us pay..
In the 70s (and I met Steve then, when I was in high school, and he was selling his computer kit to 'telephone enthusiasts') and like us, he was in the right place at the right time.. with the right product...
But its all changed..
These days, millions of Americans who are forced to drop out of (or who never attend) college because of money find it really hard to get decent jobs (read - jobs with health insurance and retirement benefits) nomatter how skilled they are...
The US is now more economically stratified than western european countries, including the uk, canada and australia/new zealand
we need open source education.. some kind of accredited open internet university for people who cant afford the rich kids colleges.. or who don't want to go into debt for 20 years...
Why cant the open source community get behind an open source college?
"Humans have a low tolerance for being robots, especially those who can think well enough to be useful in an office. So, you left out a cost of not automating: After a year, Jenny gets tired of being a robot at your company and gets a job being a robot somewhere else. That way she is at least able to experience a change of environment. The cost of finding and hiring and training another Jenny is $6,000. That's another big reason automation software pays for itself.
But, as they say on those late-night pushy commercials, that's not all. Jenny's manager supervises her and 5 others like her. It's a serious pain to manage 5 humans who are largely being asked to be robots. So, there is high turnover among managers, too, when there is low machine automation.
Another huge factor is inelastic resources. You may want Jenny to accomplish more than is possible for one person without automation. You may not have enough office space for another Jenny, or enough human resources to train another person. You may not be able to find someone who can truly replace Jenny, who is very loyal and knowledgeable about the myriad of details in running a business. The problems associated with inelastic resources can get very expensive. "
I don't see the necessity of keeping all these people around when they clearly aren't necessary.. If the technology can do it, who needs the warm bodies?
Clearly, businesses are not in the business of providing jobs.. they are in the business of transacting business.. With the lowest costs possible.. which means the highest efficiency..
An ideal small or medium-sized business would not have any employees, just the owner/programmer...
The World Wide Web has enabled a huge increase in productivity in many businesses by enabling them to, in a sense, be open 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and by making the browsing and ordering process something which could be done remotely, without involving a salesperson.
Actually, I see all business to business interactions as being definable by rules sets..
Even bidding and haggling can be defined algorithmically.. as can the process of recognition.. vision.. OCR is one example..
The really interesting stuff is being done with fuzzy logic.. but ultimately, any decision tree that can be defined in a finite way can be automated..
For example, the fields of medicine and even law are being put into expert systems that promise to make medical and legal services much more affordable..
A good example of systems like that are tax programs.. they calculate your taxes based on your answers to interview questions..
Even computer software can be dsigned like that.. Its coming!;)
The 21st century will be the century in which humankind is freed from drudge work...
Many US startup companies are doing all their research in India and are only hiring management in the US. CEOs, etc.
So India will get a lot of those 'US' grants, through subcontracting and direct offshoring..
Does anyone know what the situation is for US programmers working in India?
Can US citizens work there? I would like to stay employed in my field, but there is so little in the US. Do they have anything like our H1B program except working there, for Americans?
It appears that India is where those jobs have gone..
The real reason that the US government wants to push nuclear is because its centralized and makes a lot of money for their corporate contributors, just like oil does.
But nuclear power plants, like it or not, produce lots of highly radioactive nuclear waste, and more importantly, they become HIGHLY risky targets of terrorism.
Despite what the government would like you to believe, NO nuclear plant currently being operated could withstand a direct hit on its containment vessel by a jet airliner, like the ones that hit the WTC in 2001. Think of the implications for America on something like a direct hit on Indian Point (20 miles N. of NYC on Hudson River) or Three Mile Island. The health implications for literally tens of millions of people and the financial cost to this nation would be staggering. Also, real estate values for a huge area would crumble, causing many, many loans to be called in. (home insurance policies typically have exemptions for acts of war and nuclear radiation, so they would not pay any costs associated with a nuclear reactors meltdown) This would bankrupt millions of families..as well as making them homeless..
NO, WE SHOULD NOT BUILD ANY *MORE* NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS ANYWHERE NEAR POPULATED AREAS..
On the other hand, we are not that far away from being able to make solar energy much more efficiently. The amount of solar energy that falls on a given amount of space is really quite substantial. Current photovoltaic cells only use a tiny amount of it. If we made this a national priority we could make ourselves independent of the oil producing nations within 20 years.. Given the *inevitability* of our oil costs continuing to rise over that time, its a no brainer..
Unfortunately, we have a leadership who are so beholden to the energy industry that they will do almost anything to obfuscate the true issues and prevent this from happening..
What do you expect from a President and Vice President who still have a huge vested interest (you dont want to know how much conflict of interest - they had to change the laws..) in the oil industry..
So, you, no, we, will pay, and pay, and pay...:(
The will of the people has spoken!
Flat tax will be 45-60% - its a BIG MISTAKE
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The Jobs Crunch
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There is an analysis of the so-called "flat tax" at Citizens for Tax justice (www.ctj.org)
The Economic Policy Instuitute (http://www.epinet.org) has also analyzed the consumption tax.
Basically, in order to preserve the current level of government spending, it would need to be 45-60% It would represent a huge tax cut for the rich, since they consume a much smaller percentage of their income. It would shift most of the tax burden to the middle class.
Its a huge mistake..
The Republicans hidden agenda is to decimate the middle class..
See this article: Hidden Agenda- The convention trumpets compassion, but the real Bush agenda is clear: Use tax policy to starve the government even more.
It appears that the Selective Service system is gearing up for a new national draft, probably to be next spring. This draft is for both men and women from 18-25 but people with computer or medical training will probably be required to register them (and any new skills they acquire in these areas) until they turn 35. For more on this, see http://www.sss.gov/perfplan_fy2004.html
The Republicans are trying to pin the blame on the Democrats, but according to an Utne Reader article this month it is the Bush adminstration that is quietly pushing for this.. ETA is sometime in early 2005 The relevant bills are HR163 and S89.
There is also quite a bit on the resumption of the draft in Bush's "National Security Strategy" report dated Sept 20, 2002
The SSS is quietly pushing to finish filling local draft boards with members so that they will be ready to make status decisions quickly - in the case of a national emergency - an event like war, requiring an immediate resumption of the draft.
The Selective Service system is designed to provide hundreds of thousands of inductees to the DOD on very short notice..
The chances are the new draft will include both men and women and there will not be deferments for college.
Here is the description of the program from the PDF brocure for prospective board members.
"The Mission of the Selective Service is to provide manpower to the Department of Defense for military service in the event of a national emergency declared by the Congress or the President; implement an Alternative Service Program for registrants classified as conscientious objectors; and, maintain a program to conscript health care personnel when directed.
The all-volunteer armed force, instituted in 1973, was never intended to stand alone in time of emergency. In the event of conflict, the armed forces will be quickly augmented by the National Guard and the Reserves. If necessary, the Selective Service System will be mobilized to direct registrants to the Military Entrance Processing Stations (MEPS) around the country."
Again, there is more info on the web, see
http://www.sss.gov/perfplan_fy2004.html
So, it makes sense to make the overtime threshold 32 hrs/week, rather than eliminate overtime, because it won't make any difference in the long run anyway, (re- jobs being lost to business process automation) and in the short term it will create millions of jobs. The Black bill in 1933 passed the Senate and almost was made law, but we traded the FLSA for it. Now, with this change in the overtime laws, it seems like the social contract needs re-evaluation.
The real culprit is increased productivity.. Robots will eventually be doing most non-creative jobs, so we should be concentrating on keeping the creative jobs here in the US. Once they go overseas, they wont come back.. We need immigration because of the falling birth rate.
Otherwise, because Social security is a Ponzi scheme, we will have to raise taxes on the rich, and they will never allow that.
"Well yes, as I have maintained in the past, outsourcing does not present a strategic long term concern for the US. Sure, there are certain jobs that shall be relocated or executed from remote locations, but even if one looks at the current trends - anything that remotely involves creativity or innovation is not going anywhere"
I think that this statement contains several assumptions that we need to look at critically. I think you will see that if we depend on this kind of thinking to set policy, we are fucked. It's an arrogant statement without basis in fact or history.. And this has been said many times before in failing empires.. It is never true..
First, I should explain that movements to 'outsource' jobs historically have come after economic increaases in productivity that have empowered middle class workers and especially, skilled craftsmen/women (yesterday's 'programmers') Basically, its driven by greed. Productivity increases should be shared, but instead, the upper management prefers to keep them all themselves. So, in a sense, the explosion in offshoring is the executive management's revenge for the salary increases many of us extracted from them in the late 90s. (Also, where do the designers and creators come from? They have to work their way up to that point. How will they do it if the bulk of entry-level jobs have dissapeared? It won't happen. Most people will never enter the field. Those who are midway will be forced to leave it for more renumerative work elsewhere, if they can find it - doubtful, at that point..because most service jobs - the ones that cant move overseas..will be automated by then..)
But they are also making another assumption they shouldn't. That they will be able to, after training these offshore workers, be able to remain as the middlemen offering their services to others, and making a princely, easy profit off of them. That wont happen. What will happen is that those jobs and technologies will leave the US, never to return. All because of greed.
Basically, the loss of technical jobs is creating a vicious circle. People are less drawn to technical careers, (to put it mildly) and this creates a 'shortage of skilled workers' that sends the innovators in technology elsewhere to start companies and build equity.. Like Spain, Holland and England before them, the US will lose its 'empire' to other, more innovative countries if we dont stop this hemmorhaging of technical investment now..
But it may already be too late.. Those of us who like working in technology may eventually be forced to move where the jobs are.. or do something else..something boring and nonproductive.. Its our loss. If the US government turns into an inflexible corrupt protector of the status-quo - the monopolies and monied interests.. intelligent people without extensive investments or inherited wealth would be well advised to go elsewhere.. The inward-looking government will be all-consumed with erecting barriers to their success here.. Head for the frontier.. Since you cant go to America, there must be another frontier somewhere.. China, Asia, Canada, Europe, Australia..New Zealand???? Look for places where innovation is rewarded..appropriately.. The offshorers wont care at that point.. they have already made their money.. now their main obsession is preserving it... Preserving the status quo.. Fighting creativity.. At least thats how I see them.. Look at the DMCA, the RIAA, wage stagnation, the loss of privacy in the workplace (like Foucaults Panopticon), the financial scandals on Wall Street..the 401k scam, massively inflated real-estate prices masking salary stagnation, cronyism and corruption..the shifting of the tax burden away from the rich and onto the (shrinking) middle class and poor.. The signs of the collapse of an impending bubble are all there..
It's a natural result of the lessening clout that American workers have in the global marketplace due to the commoditization and standardization of formerly high-value skills. The next step is the automation of these jobs. Then people won't need to complain. They won't be employed. You can't unionize workers who don't exist! It's the new Taylorism.
If you ask me, the current government in China is simply driven by lust for power, and especially GREED.
The Bush administration won't really hold them to task because if the BushCo folks had their way, the US would be just like China. (no environmental regulations, no unions, no corporate taxes, precious little civil rights, no freedom of the press or speech, limitless government secrecy, high corporate profits...)
The whole Communism thing is just a front.. Karl Marx cultists are really not that different than Adam Smith cultists when you get down to it.
I'm reminded of similar situations throughout history, when empires got lazy and decided to 'outsource' the 'dirty work' to others and simply make money off them..
It's a common thing that they do before they fall..
What is happening here is that given a green light to, by Washington, the corporate interests are becoming too greedy. They don't want to allocate too much of 'their' profits to the *people who actually create the wealth*. Instead, they want to play the middleman. The problem with this scenario is that the skills leave the US. Eventually, the loss becomes irreplaceable, because the loss of low and middle tier jobs leads to the loss of upper tier jobs as well. But they wont admit that because they are just in it for the short term profit.. Its a symptom of the way corporations are structured.
History teaches us that in situations like this, it's only a matter of time before the producers and consumers of tech products and services look to eliminate the middlemen.. - basically, US.
Can the US remain a first tier nation, if it only has second tier technology? - NO
You can run 802.11b over fairly long distances given the right kind of equipment. I'd suggest two 24 dbi parabolic dishes at each end of the link. Can you get line of sight to the Slashdot offices, even if they are a long distance away?
Alternatively, there may be local providers who would give you fixed wireless. (again, over a spread-spectrum based radio link) Around here in the Bay Area there are several. They can set somebody up with a T1 link for quite reasonable damages.
If you are not line of sight, there is the possibility of using a passive repreater in the middle. (two high gain antennas connected together) Think about it!
Is that people in the US will gradually desert high-tech because (since we are a captive jobforce who cannot simply 'go where the jobs are' anymore) there are no jobs there anymore. Its not just the 'low-skilled' programming jobs that we are losing. We are also losing the higher-paying *research* and project management jobs. That is a critical, overwhelmingly stupid mistake.
I hear college students debating this all of the time. For example, suddenly, computer science, and to a lesser extent, ALL of the sciences, are now considered almost majors 'for losers' because of the dearth of jobs in those areas. This is bad news because high-tech, more than anything else, *creates* wealth and value. Real wealth.
So, when you think about it, most US students now, instead of going into fields that create wealth, hope to go into fields where they will not create any wealth, they will simply move money, energy or materials around, like Enron. This is very bad. And if you follow the Republicans logic, this lack of skilled people, is only reason to move more jobs overseas. So it becomes an accelerating vicious circle very quickly.
Think about the long-term effects of this change. If the rank-and-file high-tech jobs move overseas (and this has already happened) the research jobs will as well (this is now happening) and sooner or later, probably sooner, there will be a crash and the net result will be a readjustment (in the form of a crash in the dollar's value) that will result in the US losing all of its wealth and becoming a sort of bannana republic - with many bitter, poor people and a few smiling billionaires. This outcome is becoming increasingly likely, unless we aggressively act to keep high-tech jobs here and make them pay well. All of them.
The other side of the coin on IT offshoring is that very real people
like us in other lands get a chance to get jobs when otherwise they
wouldnt. These people have lives and families too and it is presumptuous
of us to think that somehow we have a right to all domestic jobs..
Its a complex situation..
This interview is with Sunny Zhou, an IT student in Dalian, China
It's from a blog at
http://www.sinosplice.com/~dezza/
(I have no connection to these people..)
Real Chinese Interviews #2:
Sunny Zhou
Name: (Zhou Yue) / Sunny Zhou
Hometown: Dongfeng (population: 500,000), Jilin Province
Age:21, born in the year of the Dog, 1982
Education: Sophmore-Class of 2005, Information Technology major, Neusoft
Institute of Technology
About Sunny Zhou:
Sunny is another one of my star students. She is a very keen student of
English and although often shy at times in conversational situations,
she is still very enthusiastic. Before she was in my class, Sunny wasn't
enthusiastic about learning English but since September she has been
very interested in all things English. This is one of the reasons why I
love to teach English in China, because of great students and friends
like Sunny.
RCI: Describe yourself.
Sunny: I am a Chinese college student. Last year I received the school's
admission. In college, I am learning IT and Business Management. I like
this major so I came to Dalian and learn last year. My mom has supplied
me from when I was born until now. I am ashamed of this. 18 years old is
an adult in China. But I can't get independence and I must use my mom's
money. But in China most of the person as young as me the same as me.
All my schoolmates do like this.
RCI: What are your hobbies?
Sunny: After school, I often surf the internet. Most of the websites are
about music and IT.I often read blogs, both English and Chinese. I am
interested in what people real think in their real life. I like my
foreign teacher's blog best. From reading his blog I can know what his
thinking when he living in mainland in China and read the native English
articles can improve my English reading skill. Very fun to do. Most of
the day off I was in the room and surfing on the internet. Sometime I
went to the seaside or Xinghai Square. Dalian is a beautiful city to
visit.
RCI: As a college student, do you have an optimistic or pessimistic view
of the job market after you graduate?
Sunny: Now I don't think I can find a job easily after I graduate. China
has so many undergraduate students every year. Last year there were two
million six hundred thousand undergraduate students of all kinds of
callings. And every year the colleges enlarge the number of recruit
students. I don't know when I graduate what will be the situation and
what kind of the person does the job market need. Competition is very
severe in China. Because China has so many people. I think IT is a hot
calling now, that's why I choose to learn it. I think IT has a bright
future. Maybe the undergraduate students learning IT can find a job
easily then other ones in China. I think in the future the world is an
internet world so IT is very important. Whatever the situation is, I
think as an undergraduate student I must be good at one skill at least.
I hope to be able to write HTML, JavaScript, make FLASH, ERP, CRM, etc.
The IT industry is changing everyday so I must study hard, follow the
steps, or else I will be washed away.
RCI: Do you like to study English? Why or why not.
Sunny: Now I really like to study English. Why do I say this? Because I
studied English for passing all kinds of exams at last. But why I am
interesting in it and I know if I can speak pretty good English I can
get a job easier than the other people who can't in China. English is
more important than before. When I met Derrick (my foreign teacher) I
learned what is the real English. I can learn something in the oral
English class that isn't in Chinese-teacher taught grammar English
class. That's why I like English especially ora
North Korea has the worst human rights situation on Earth. Its as if Orwells 1984 has come to life.. its comparable to the 1930s in Russia under Stalin. NK desperately needs to be opened to the outside world, but Kim Jong Il, the narcissistic despot who rules NK, will never allow that because it would expose his web of lies. The result is that millions of people have starved to death and millions more have died in concentration camps.
Check out some of the resources linked from freenorthkorea.net's home page. North Korea is by far the strangest place on Earth
Slashdot Mirror
But I'm getting it..
The Inquisition didn't officially end until the 1800s. It turned Spain from the richest, most powerful nation in the world to a nothing, has been state. It caused many of its most educated and skilled to flee.. What else? A lot..
Might doesn't make right. Intimidation doesn't make global warming stop. Stupidity doesn't bring back innovation when its been silenced. Milking monopolies and intellectual property doesn't substitute for creation of new wealth.
The GOP may be able to maintain control of the US. They may be able to suppress our dealing with these things, even as people die from the natural disasters..skin cancer..pollution, etc. caused by their brain-dead greed-centric policies..
But the WORLD and its ideas and economic vitality will just route itself around (US, or other) censorship... don't you think?
It would be nice if China had some kind of realization when their astronauts are up in space, flying around the Earth, looking down on a fragile ball, without any borders visible on the 'map' - that we are all one people, one race, one world.. a very fragile and exceedingly precious world.. here in our tiny, five mile thick zone of comfort, balanced between a world that is very very cold (space) and one that is very very hot.. (magma)
But instead, the Chinese that I have spoken to don't see this as some kind of triumph for mankind and instead, see it as 'catching up with America' - a continuation of what has become a national obsession.. Of course, they are catching up with America in 1963.. (which was catching up to the then-USSR a year earlier) but...
Ultimately, I think its a good thing.. The space cooperation between the US and the USSR was clearly, in retrospect a BIG thing in improving the relations between our two countries.. It may have saved us from a nuclear war during those years..
Now I'm praying that we don't end up in one in the 21st century.. Seems like both China and the US are currently ruled by the same kinds of idiots.. the kind that doesnt mind seeing millions of people die if its good for profits..
But.. any scientist could tell them.. IT WONT BE..
As Einstein said "We can't tell you what weapons World War III will be fought with, but we can tell you that World War IV, IF THERE IS ONE will be fought with sticks an arrows..
If we live to see it.. if the human race survives..
Just say NO..
I'm really glad that you (and others like you) seem to be tackling this aspect of the corporate unaccountability problem. I'll be checking your web site out. What do you think of the movement to end corporate personhood? There is a lot of evidence that the priginal Santa Clara decision that gave personhood to corporations was never made as such, but was written into the record by an overly-enthusiastic clerk, Bancroft, who had a vested interest in corporate personhood.. (he had been a lawyer for the railroad companies, who were the pharma /oil corps of his day)
For more, see http://poclad.org/ and http://reclaimdemocracy.org/
But watch out - evaporating lots of chlorinated water releases chloroform-related gasses..
Also, swamp coolers dont work in high humidity - for obvious reasons..
Perhaps a Peltier device might work better?
Thats what my next personal cooler project is going to be based on..
And it was a different time..
...
Actually, my experience was a lot like yours.. I was doing well until around two years ago, but I'm struggling again now..
I don't think my experience is that atypical.. The powers that be are getting their revenge on those Internet geeks for screwing up their plans for global domination..
Seriously. The Internet changed everything, and they want to make us pay..
In the 70s (and I met Steve then, when I was in high school, and he was selling his computer kit to 'telephone enthusiasts') and like us, he was in the right place at the right time.. with the right product...
But its all changed..
These days, millions of Americans who are forced to drop out of (or who never attend) college because of money find it really hard to get decent jobs (read - jobs with health insurance and retirement benefits) nomatter how skilled they are...
The US is now more economically stratified than western european countries, including the uk, canada and australia/new zealand
we need open source education.. some kind of accredited open internet university for people who cant afford the rich kids colleges.. or who don't want to go into debt for 20 years
Why cant the open source community get behind an open source college?
Its an idea whose time has come..
"Humans have a low tolerance for being robots, especially those who can think well enough to be useful in an office. So, you left out a cost of not automating: After a year, Jenny gets tired of being a robot at your company and gets a job being a robot somewhere else. That way she is at least able to experience a change of environment. The cost of finding and hiring and training another Jenny is $6,000. That's another big reason automation software pays for itself.
But, as they say on those late-night pushy commercials, that's not all. Jenny's manager supervises her and 5 others like her. It's a serious pain to manage 5 humans who are largely being asked to be robots. So, there is high turnover among managers, too, when there is low machine automation.
Another huge factor is inelastic resources. You may want Jenny to accomplish more than is possible for one person without automation. You may not have enough office space for another Jenny, or enough human resources to train another person. You may not be able to find someone who can truly replace Jenny, who is very loyal and knowledgeable about the myriad of details in running a business. The problems associated with inelastic resources can get very expensive.
"
I don't see the necessity of keeping all these people around when they clearly aren't necessary.. If the technology can do it, who needs the warm bodies?
Clearly, businesses are not in the business of providing jobs.. they are in the business of transacting business.. With the lowest costs possible.. which means the highest efficiency..
An ideal small or medium-sized business would not have any employees, just the owner/programmer...
Social welfare is not their responsibility...
The World Wide Web has enabled a huge increase in productivity in many businesses by enabling them to, in a sense, be open 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and by making the browsing and ordering process something which could be done remotely, without involving a salesperson.
;)
Actually, I see all business to business interactions as being definable by rules sets..
Even bidding and haggling can be defined algorithmically.. as can the process of recognition.. vision.. OCR is one example..
The really interesting stuff is being done with fuzzy logic.. but ultimately, any decision tree that can be defined in a finite way can be automated..
For example, the fields of medicine and even law are being put into expert systems that promise to make medical and legal services much more affordable..
A good example of systems like that are tax programs.. they calculate your taxes based on your answers to interview questions..
Even computer software can be dsigned like that.. Its coming!
The 21st century will be the century in which humankind is freed from drudge work...
Many US startup companies are doing all their research in India and are only hiring management in the US. CEOs, etc.
So India will get a lot of those 'US' grants, through subcontracting and direct offshoring..
Does anyone know what the situation is for US programmers working in India?
Can US citizens work there? I would like to stay employed in my field, but there is so little in the US. Do they have anything like our H1B program except working there, for Americans?
It appears that India is where those jobs have gone..
The real reason that the US government wants to push nuclear is because its centralized and makes a lot of money for their corporate contributors, just like oil does.
:(
But nuclear power plants, like it or not, produce lots of highly radioactive nuclear waste, and more importantly, they become HIGHLY risky targets of terrorism.
Despite what the government would like you to believe, NO nuclear plant currently being operated could withstand a direct hit on its containment vessel by a jet airliner, like the ones that hit the WTC in 2001. Think of the implications for America on something like a direct hit on Indian Point (20 miles N. of NYC on Hudson River) or Three Mile Island. The health implications for literally tens of millions of people and the financial cost to this nation would be staggering. Also, real estate values for a huge area would crumble, causing many, many loans to be called in. (home insurance policies typically have exemptions for acts of war and nuclear radiation, so they would not pay any costs associated with a nuclear reactors meltdown) This would bankrupt millions of families..as well as making them homeless..
NO, WE SHOULD NOT BUILD ANY *MORE* NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS ANYWHERE NEAR POPULATED AREAS..
On the other hand, we are not that far away from being able to make solar energy much more efficiently. The amount of solar energy that falls on a given amount of space is really quite substantial. Current photovoltaic cells only use a tiny amount of it. If we made this a national priority we could make ourselves independent of the oil producing nations within 20 years.. Given the *inevitability* of our oil costs continuing to rise over that time, its a no brainer..
Unfortunately, we have a leadership who are so beholden to the energy industry that they will do almost anything to obfuscate the true issues and prevent this from happening..
What do you expect from a President and Vice President who still have a huge vested interest (you dont want to know how much conflict of interest - they had to change the laws..) in the oil industry..
So, you, no, we, will pay, and pay, and pay...
The will of the people has spoken!
There is an analysis of the so-called "flat tax" at Citizens for Tax justice (www.ctj.org)
t &n ame=ViewWeb&articleId=8449
http://www.itepnet.org/sale0904.pdf
The Economic Policy Instuitute (http://www.epinet.org) has also analyzed the consumption tax.
Basically, in order to preserve the current level of government spending, it would need to be 45-60% It would represent a huge tax cut for the rich, since they consume a much smaller percentage of their income. It would shift most of the tax burden to the middle class.
Its a huge mistake..
The Republicans hidden agenda is to decimate the middle class..
See this article:
Hidden Agenda- The convention trumpets compassion, but the real Bush agenda is clear: Use tax policy to starve the government even more.
http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=roo
The Republicans are trying to pin the blame on the Democrats, but according to an Utne Reader article this month it is the Bush adminstration that is quietly pushing for this.. ETA is sometime in early 2005 The relevant bills are HR163 and S89.
There is also quite a bit on the resumption of the draft in Bush's "National Security Strategy" report dated Sept 20, 2002
The SSS is quietly pushing to finish filling local draft boards with members so that they will be ready to make status decisions quickly - in the case of a national emergency - an event like war, requiring an immediate resumption of the draft.
The Selective Service system is designed to provide hundreds of thousands of inductees to the DOD on very short notice..
The chances are the new draft will include both men and women and there will not be deferments for college.
Here is the description of the program from the PDF brocure for prospective board members.
"The Mission of the Selective Service is to provide manpower to the Department of Defense for military service in the event of a national emergency declared by the Congress or the President; implement an Alternative Service Program for registrants classified as conscientious objectors; and, maintain a program to conscript health care personnel when directed.
The all-volunteer armed force, instituted in 1973, was never intended to stand alone in time of emergency. In the event of conflict, the armed forces will be quickly augmented by the National Guard and the Reserves. If necessary, the Selective Service System will be mobilized to direct registrants to the Military Entrance Processing Stations (MEPS) around the country. "
Again, there is more info on the web, see http://www.sss.gov/perfplan_fy2004.html
So, it makes sense to make the overtime threshold 32 hrs/week, rather than eliminate overtime, because it won't make any difference in the long run anyway, (re- jobs being lost to business process automation) and in the short term it will create millions of jobs. The Black bill in 1933 passed the Senate and almost was made law, but we traded the FLSA for it. Now, with this change in the overtime laws, it seems like the social contract needs re-evaluation.
The real culprit is increased productivity.. Robots will eventually be doing most non-creative jobs, so we should be concentrating on keeping the creative jobs here in the US. Once they go overseas, they wont come back.. We need immigration because of the falling birth rate.
Otherwise, because Social security is a Ponzi scheme, we will have to raise taxes on the rich, and they will never allow that.
"Well yes, as I have maintained in the past, outsourcing does not present a strategic long term concern for the US. Sure, there are certain jobs that shall be relocated or executed from remote locations, but even if one looks at the current trends - anything that remotely involves creativity or innovation is not going anywhere"
I think that this statement contains several assumptions that we need to look at critically. I think you will see that if we depend on this kind of thinking to set policy, we are fucked. It's an arrogant statement without basis in fact or history.. And this has been said many times before in failing empires.. It is never true..
First, I should explain that movements to 'outsource' jobs historically have come after
economic increaases in productivity that have empowered middle class workers and especially, skilled craftsmen/women (yesterday's 'programmers') Basically, its driven by greed. Productivity increases should be shared, but instead, the upper management prefers to keep them all themselves. So, in a sense, the explosion in offshoring is the executive management's revenge for the salary increases many of us extracted from them in the late 90s. (Also, where do the designers and creators come from? They have to work their way up to that point. How will they do it if the bulk of entry-level jobs have dissapeared? It won't happen. Most people will never enter the field. Those who are midway will be forced to leave it for more renumerative work elsewhere, if they can find it - doubtful, at that point..because most service jobs - the ones that cant move overseas..will be automated by then..)
But they are also making another assumption they shouldn't. That they will be able to, after training these offshore workers, be able to remain as the middlemen offering their services to others, and making a princely, easy profit off of them. That wont happen. What will happen is that those jobs and technologies will leave the US, never to return. All because of greed.
Basically, the loss of technical jobs is creating a vicious circle. People are less drawn to technical careers, (to put it mildly) and this creates a 'shortage of skilled workers' that sends the innovators in technology elsewhere to start companies and build equity.. Like Spain, Holland and England before them, the US will lose its 'empire' to other, more innovative countries if we dont stop this hemmorhaging of technical investment now..
But it may already be too late.. Those of us who like working in technology may eventually be forced to move where the jobs are.. or do something else..something boring and nonproductive.. Its our loss. If the US government turns into an inflexible corrupt protector of the status-quo - the monopolies and monied interests.. intelligent people without extensive investments or inherited wealth would be well advised to go elsewhere.. The inward-looking government will be all-consumed with erecting barriers to their success here.. Head for the frontier.. Since you cant go to America, there must be another frontier somewhere.. China, Asia, Canada, Europe, Australia..New Zealand???? Look for places where innovation is rewarded..appropriately.. The offshorers wont care at that point.. they have already made their money.. now their main obsession is preserving it... Preserving the status quo.. Fighting creativity.. At least thats how I see them.. Look at the DMCA, the RIAA, wage stagnation, the loss of privacy in the workplace (like Foucaults Panopticon), the financial scandals on Wall Street..the 401k scam, massively inflated real-estate prices masking salary stagnation, cronyism and corruption..the shifting of the tax burden away from the rich and onto the (shrinking) middle class and poor.. The signs of the collapse of an impending bubble are all there..
Thats economics 101 Its already begun..
CTJ.org has some pretty interesting statistics on taxation here in the US.
Check it out.
And it's running out...
You might want to think about starting your own multinational corporation if you want to make real money.
This stuff is happening everywhere.
It's a natural result of the lessening clout that American workers have in the global marketplace due to the commoditization and standardization of formerly high-value skills. The next step is the automation of these jobs. Then people won't need to complain. They won't be employed. You can't unionize workers who don't exist! It's the new Taylorism.
If you ask me, the current government in China is simply driven by lust for power, and especially GREED.
The Bush administration won't really hold them to task because if the BushCo folks had their way, the US would be just like China. (no environmental regulations, no unions, no corporate taxes, precious little civil rights, no freedom of the press or speech, limitless government secrecy, high corporate profits...)
The whole Communism thing is just a front.. Karl Marx cultists are really not that different than Adam Smith cultists when you get down to it.
I'm reminded of similar situations throughout history, when empires got lazy and decided to 'outsource' the 'dirty work' to others and simply make money off them..
It's a common thing that they do before they fall..
What is happening here is that given a green light to, by Washington, the corporate interests are becoming too greedy. They don't want to allocate too much of 'their' profits to the *people who actually create the wealth*. Instead, they want to play the middleman. The problem with this scenario is that the skills leave the US. Eventually, the loss becomes irreplaceable, because the loss of low and middle tier jobs leads to the loss of upper tier jobs as well. But they wont admit that because they are just in it for the short term profit.. Its a symptom of the way corporations are structured.
History teaches us that in situations like this, it's only a matter of time before the producers and consumers of tech products and services look to eliminate the middlemen.. - basically, US.
Can the US remain a first tier nation, if it only has second tier technology? - NO
Anyway, thats my cut on this...
Alternatively, there may be local providers who would give you fixed wireless. (again, over a spread-spectrum based radio link) Around here in the Bay Area there are several. They can set somebody up with a T1 link for quite reasonable damages.
If you are not line of sight, there is the possibility of using a passive repreater in the middle. (two high gain antennas connected together) Think about it!
So, when you think about it, most US students now, instead of going into fields that create wealth, hope to go into fields where they will not create any wealth, they will simply move money, energy or materials around, like Enron. This is very bad. And if you follow the Republicans logic, this lack of skilled people, is only reason to move more jobs overseas. So it becomes an accelerating vicious circle very quickly.
Think about the long-term effects of this change. If the rank-and-file high-tech jobs move overseas (and this has already happened) the research jobs will as well (this is now happening) and sooner or later, probably sooner, there will be a crash and the net result will be a readjustment (in the form of a crash in the dollar's value) that will result in the US losing all of its wealth and becoming a sort of bannana republic - with many bitter, poor people and a few smiling billionaires. This outcome is becoming increasingly likely, unless we aggressively act to keep high-tech jobs here and make them pay well. All of them.
Otherwise, it's
>>>>>>Game Over.
Performance is quite a bit better than that old Linux code, and NetBSD's pkgsrc package system is pretty slick..
Its a complex situation.. This interview is with Sunny Zhou, an IT student in Dalian, China It's from a blog at http://www.sinosplice.com/~dezza/ (I have no connection to these people..)
Real Chinese Interviews #2: Sunny Zhou
Name: (Zhou Yue) / Sunny Zhou Hometown: Dongfeng (population: 500,000), Jilin Province Age:21, born in the year of the Dog, 1982 Education: Sophmore-Class of 2005, Information Technology major, Neusoft Institute of Technology
About Sunny Zhou:
Sunny is another one of my star students. She is a very keen student of English and although often shy at times in conversational situations, she is still very enthusiastic. Before she was in my class, Sunny wasn't enthusiastic about learning English but since September she has been very interested in all things English. This is one of the reasons why I love to teach English in China, because of great students and friends like Sunny.
RCI: Describe yourself.
Sunny: I am a Chinese college student. Last year I received the school's admission. In college, I am learning IT and Business Management. I like this major so I came to Dalian and learn last year. My mom has supplied me from when I was born until now. I am ashamed of this. 18 years old is an adult in China. But I can't get independence and I must use my mom's money. But in China most of the person as young as me the same as me. All my schoolmates do like this.
RCI: What are your hobbies?
Sunny: After school, I often surf the internet. Most of the websites are about music and IT.I often read blogs, both English and Chinese. I am interested in what people real think in their real life. I like my foreign teacher's blog best. From reading his blog I can know what his thinking when he living in mainland in China and read the native English articles can improve my English reading skill. Very fun to do. Most of the day off I was in the room and surfing on the internet. Sometime I went to the seaside or Xinghai Square. Dalian is a beautiful city to visit.
RCI: As a college student, do you have an optimistic or pessimistic view of the job market after you graduate?
Sunny: Now I don't think I can find a job easily after I graduate. China has so many undergraduate students every year. Last year there were two million six hundred thousand undergraduate students of all kinds of callings. And every year the colleges enlarge the number of recruit students. I don't know when I graduate what will be the situation and what kind of the person does the job market need. Competition is very severe in China. Because China has so many people. I think IT is a hot calling now, that's why I choose to learn it. I think IT has a bright future. Maybe the undergraduate students learning IT can find a job easily then other ones in China. I think in the future the world is an internet world so IT is very important. Whatever the situation is, I think as an undergraduate student I must be good at one skill at least. I hope to be able to write HTML, JavaScript, make FLASH, ERP, CRM, etc. The IT industry is changing everyday so I must study hard, follow the steps, or else I will be washed away.
RCI: Do you like to study English? Why or why not.
Sunny: Now I really like to study English. Why do I say this? Because I studied English for passing all kinds of exams at last. But why I am interesting in it and I know if I can speak pretty good English I can get a job easier than the other people who can't in China. English is more important than before. When I met Derrick (my foreign teacher) I learned what is the real English. I can learn something in the oral English class that isn't in Chinese-teacher taught grammar English class. That's why I like English especially ora
I'll ask them.. It's just one of the default Movable Type templates..not much more..
North Korea has the worst human rights situation on Earth. Its as if Orwells 1984 has come to life.. its comparable to the 1930s in Russia under Stalin. NK desperately needs to be opened to the outside world, but Kim Jong Il, the narcissistic despot who rules NK, will never allow that because it would expose his web of lies. The result is that millions of people have starved to death and millions more have died in concentration camps.
Check out some of the resources linked from freenorthkorea.net's home page. North Korea is by far the strangest place on Earth