So how many million barrels a day can we make if we try really really hard with really really expensive oil in short supply? Twould be nice if twas alot.
I agree, human enginuity is mind blowing. Yes I am being fairly pessimistic. I think a pessimistic outlook is good at the current stage because the problem of peak oil is approaching rapidly and I see way way too little being done to prepare for it.
The US government had a study commissioned into the effects of peak oil and what we might do to aleviate them. You can find it here:
Basically he says that unless we start preparing in a serious way 15-20 years before peak oil occurs we are going to have mighty big problems and that if we wait until it happens to do anything we are screwed. Maybe he's just being incredibly pessimistic but the guy makes sense to me.
The future of the car is very bleak given that at the current rate of oil consumption we have enough reserves (optimistically) for 40 years. Even that is irrelevant because oil production will peak over the next few years when demand is soaring in Asia.
Forget about Hydrogen, it's only a means of energy storage not a source. There is no way we could biuld the infrastructure let alone produce enough hydrogen or hydrogen powered vehicles.
Forget about LNG, there's no way we can replace even 5 million barrels of oil equivalent given that natural gas will peak in the next 15 years and North America has peaked already.
Forget about biogas/biodiesel, most of it doesn't even have a positive net energy return.
I would hazard a guess that if we maxed out all the alternative liquid fuels that we could use for air/road transportation we might make up less than 5% of global oil demand. That's a guess, I would be interested in some real numbers.
Don't give me any of that "The markets will automatically react, adjust and allow alternatives to become economically viable" BS. The economic system that we live in depends on growing energy supplies to feed the system so that people can pay the interest on their loans. The energy supply is going to stop growing then start declining and the worlds economies will crash to various degrees: The larger they are, the harder they will fall.
Personally I think hardly anyone will be driving cars in 10 years time.
Dunno what the EU National debt is but I don't think we run a $500 Billion trade deficit and the Euro isn't a reserve currency and you can't buy oil directly with Euros (yet).
Once you see the Euro as a reserve and oil currency you can kiss the US economy goodbye.
All that American debt testifies to the USA's free ticket to creating dollars out of thin air. As long as they aren't spent in the USA they can effectively pay interest in dollars on the dollars it borrows from Asia, Russia, Europe, China and the Middle East.
Once the rest of the world wakes up and starts trying to get out of the dollar for whatever reason (oil peak, war, terror attacks), allllll that cash will flow back to the USA and cause hyperinflation.
Yes, the USA is heading for complete financial collapse taking most of the world with it leaving the EU to emerge as the dominant economic world power.
If you look at history currency systems have only ever lasted about 30 years so we are long overdue for a complete crash since the USA stopped backing the dollar with gold in the 1970s.
It's been a fun last 50 years but the party is almost over !
Oh yeah and getting back to the topic, no software patents in Europe could be an incentive for companies to base in Europe only furtherering the USA's economic decline.
I think when people have problems with skipping music they have either pants sound cards or the driver is pants or a combination of both. I have an Audigy on a Duron 900 and I've not had xmms skip in the 3 (just count them !) years I've been using linux.
For the price an Audigy is an excellent sound card for linux because everything "Just Works" TM. An important part of this is that it does hardware channel mixing as any half decent soundcard should. Most sound cards that come built onto motherboards require software mixing or you're limited to playing 1 channel at once.
So you think people should be held responsible for simply making files available over P2P ? Whoever said that a filename had to be descriptive of the contents.
P2P is completely unregulated and probably makes you fully responsible for what you do with what you download in the disclaimer anyway.
I agree if someone makes something with a nasty payload then they have a degree of responsibility but you can't just obviate all responsibilty from the person who downloaded the thing just because they were ignorant.
It serves people right if they get burnt while trying to do illegal stuff.
If you think about it it for very long you find that you can't solve by sides as each piece can be in more than one position on its side and the side still be correct but other sides incorrect.
If you solve it by layers then you makes sure that each corner/edge piece is correct for its layer with respect to its sides and you can ignore the unsolved layers while you do the current one.
"Use a computer to do it. Its 3 million times faster, can read your mind and do your ironing!"
And the non geeks respond:
"Nah, its too hard, expensive, dangerous and unreliable."
Whereas in this case it seems we can't disuade them from using it.
I wonder how long it would take to label these electronic voting systems as a joke if one were allowed a circumspect examination. Of course you won't be able to get anywhere near them because the developer company will claim security when the only real security is being completely open about it.
At the moment the world consumes 80million barrels a day (mbpd), 20million of those are used by the USA alone who only have 4% of the worlds population !
The USA has oil reserves of 50 billion barrels and at the current rate of usage (which is predicted to rise by at least 1.5% per year) of 7.3 billion per year would exhaust its reserves in 7 years. Consequently the USA currently imports about 30% of its oil from the middle east and another 20% from Africa and elsewhere. 40% of all US oil usage is petrolium based for transportation. Based on this the US oil reserves will run out in about 14 years.
The middle east controls 65% of the worlds oil reserves. Thats 685 billion barrels of the worlds 1050 billion. Saudi Arabia has about 260 billion and has the worlds largest reserves. Iraq, UAE and Kuwait have 97 billion, Iran 90 billion with others making up the rest.
As far as I can make out from Google, experts only expect another 200billion barrels of oil reserves to be discovered at the most. This is only an estimate, not based on known oil wells whose reserves have not been measured but on a guess of "how much oil we don't know about".
At the moment about 10 billion barrels of oil is discovered per year which has been steadily declining since 1965 and based on the current trend is expected to reach 0 by about 2020.
At the current rate of world oil usage (80mbpd), with the current amount of reserves (1050Gb) that would give us 1050b / (365x80m) = 36 years.
China is rapidly becoming the next economic superpower closely followed by India and Pakistan who together constitute over a third of the worlds population. This and many other factors mean that world oil consumption will continue to rise to 120mbpd by 2030 even with conservative predictions.
Consumption is in fact never likely to reach these levels because by 2030 time the worlds reserve levels are likely to be so low that only a 3 or 4 countries will be supplying 90% of the worlds oil. This means that the rate of production will be greatly reduced because the maximum sustained rate of production of 4 countries may only be 40mbpd.
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm
According to this trend that predicts oil production rates will start to fall when we reach 50% usage of all oil that has ever existed, the supply rate of oil will increasingly fail to meet demand as time progresses.
What with the USA invading Iraq obviously to secure the worlds largest oil fields (WMD lol ! Evil Dictator lol !) and establish even more military prescence in the region of the worlds largest oil reserves, I can see major conflicts between the USA, Europe and China, India, Pakistan and Russia with the middle east stuck in the middle as soon as 2020 and definately by 2030. Especially if you bear in mind that the USA spends about $500billion on its military every year and China with the most manpower on earth is rapidly expanding its military program and is the 2nd largest arms spender with a measly $30billion.
Theres alot of talk about "renewable energy" and alternative power sources but oil supplies 40% of the worlds power needs and I'm extremely sceptical that we'll even replace 1% of our power needs with non-oil based power within the next 20 years by wich time it will be too late.
Nothing to worry about but I reckon that the earth will be rather desolate and the population reduced by 2 thirds by 2040 if not earlier.
All these things are great but of no use to me. If I had all these things then I might actually get some work done so I need it to:
1) Crash Constantly 2) Closed source so it can't be fixed 3) The minimum network support required is for worm propogation. 4) Foiled ! IIS unfortunately fits your criteria. 5) The whole point of not being near your computer is not being able to work. 6) Foiled again ! VB is the best !
Now can you see why people don't want to use linux ?
Or don't change kernels often, make a script to make the upgrade quickly and without thinking, get someone else to do it or (gasp) manage your time better.
Slashdot Mirror
So how many million barrels a day can we make if we try really really hard with really really expensive oil in short supply? Twould be nice if twas alot.
I agree, human enginuity is mind blowing. Yes I am being fairly pessimistic. I think a pessimistic outlook is good at the current stage because the problem of peak oil is approaching rapidly and I see way way too little being done to prepare for it.
c h_Report_Proj_Cens.pdf
The US government had a study commissioned into the effects of peak oil and what we might do to aleviate them. You can find it here:
http://www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/The_Hirs
Basically he says that unless we start preparing in a serious way 15-20 years before peak oil occurs we are going to have mighty big problems and that if we wait until it happens to do anything we are screwed. Maybe he's just being incredibly pessimistic but the guy makes sense to me.
The future of the car is very bleak given that at the current rate of oil consumption we have enough reserves (optimistically) for 40 years. Even that is irrelevant because oil production will peak over the next few years when demand is soaring in Asia.
Forget about Hydrogen, it's only a means of energy storage not a source. There is no way we could biuld the infrastructure let alone produce enough hydrogen or hydrogen powered vehicles.
Forget about LNG, there's no way we can replace even 5 million barrels of oil equivalent given that natural gas will peak in the next 15 years and North America has peaked already.
Forget about biogas/biodiesel, most of it doesn't even have a positive net energy return.
I would hazard a guess that if we maxed out all the alternative liquid fuels that we could use for air/road transportation we might make up less than 5% of global oil demand. That's a guess, I would be interested in some real numbers.
Don't give me any of that "The markets will automatically react, adjust and allow alternatives to become economically viable" BS. The economic system that we live in depends on growing energy supplies to feed the system so that people can pay the interest on their loans. The energy supply is going to stop growing then start declining and the worlds economies will crash to various degrees: The larger they are, the harder they will fall.
Personally I think hardly anyone will be driving cars in 10 years time.
US National Debt = $7,147,545,929,573.40
m
Or if you like $7.1 Trillion.
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.ht
Dunno what the EU National debt is but I don't think we run a $500 Billion trade deficit and the Euro isn't a reserve currency and you can't buy oil directly with Euros (yet).
Once you see the Euro as a reserve and oil currency you can kiss the US economy goodbye.
All that American debt testifies to the USA's free ticket to creating dollars out of thin air. As long as they aren't spent in the USA they can effectively pay interest in dollars on the dollars it borrows from Asia, Russia, Europe, China and the Middle East.
Once the rest of the world wakes up and starts trying to get out of the dollar for whatever reason (oil peak, war, terror attacks), allllll that cash will flow back to the USA and cause hyperinflation.
Yes, the USA is heading for complete financial collapse taking most of the world with it leaving the EU to emerge as the dominant economic world power.
If you look at history currency systems have only ever lasted about 30 years so we are long overdue for a complete crash since the USA stopped backing the dollar with gold in the 1970s.
It's been a fun last 50 years but the party is almost over !
Oh yeah and getting back to the topic, no software patents in Europe could be an incentive for companies to base in Europe only furtherering the USA's economic decline.
See if Illegal Art will at least host the latest source tarball. Anything to stick it to Apple.
http://www.illegal-art.org/
"Since the license is non transferable"
In Europe they are transferable. You can even sell your license.
I think when people have problems with skipping music they have either pants sound cards or the driver is pants or a combination of both. I have an Audigy on a Duron 900 and I've not had xmms skip in the 3 (just count them !) years I've been using linux.
For the price an Audigy is an excellent sound card for linux because everything "Just Works" TM. An important part of this is that it does hardware channel mixing as any half decent soundcard should. Most sound cards that come built onto motherboards require software mixing or you're limited to playing 1 channel at once.
ALSA-OSS, SBP2, IEEE 1394 all work perfectly for me in 2.6.4.
"The client will be completely undetectable and unremovable by even the most skilled hacker"
May take a while to invent this. Forever ?
July 13, 2004 Colin Powell declares the EU has "Weapons of mass destruction, without a doubt."
The UK and France have plenty of Nukes so go for it.
Every country that uses MS products should do this to MS.
Goverment: Cough up or we'll ban your products.
MS:Uhhhh, appeal, appeal, appeal, appeal. Damn OK.
In the end all it does is leech money from the US economy.
So you think people should be held responsible for simply making files available over P2P ? Whoever said that a filename had to be descriptive of the contents.
P2P is completely unregulated and probably makes you fully responsible for what you do with what you download in the disclaimer anyway.
I agree if someone makes something with a nasty payload then they have a degree of responsibility but you can't just obviate all responsibilty from the person who downloaded the thing just because they were ignorant.
It serves people right if they get burnt while trying to do illegal stuff.
If I download some random file from kazaa and run it, I'm the only one to blame for what it does.
Its just irony that some of the filenames they used would contain illegal content if they were what they claimed to be.
I would smiply dd the dvds to hdd and write some app or other to get a nice menu system for mounting the disk images and playing them via Xine.
Afaik TV-out works nicely with most radeons under linux, so do some decent mpeg2 cards.
For remote support I can recommend the irman (evation.com) with good support for xine via lirc.
If you think about it it for very long you find that you can't solve by sides as each piece can be in more than one position on its side and the side still be correct but other sides incorrect.
If you solve it by layers then you makes sure that each corner/edge piece is correct for its layer with respect to its sides and you can ignore the unsolved layers while you do the current one.
Is the Lars petrus solution.
Apparently its not the fastest by about 0.5 seconds or so but it takes years to get to that level.
I found it encredibly easy to learn, got under 60 seconds in less than a month.
http://lar5.com/cube/
Exactly, without Peter Jones its just not hhgttg.
You know that, I know that, but its still not the way the "Free World TM" works.
Computer Scientists are usually:
"Use a computer to do it. Its 3 million times faster, can read your mind and do your ironing!"
And the non geeks respond:
"Nah, its too hard, expensive, dangerous and unreliable."
Whereas in this case it seems we can't disuade them from using it.
I wonder how long it would take to label these electronic voting systems as a joke if one were allowed a circumspect examination. Of course you won't be able to get anywhere near them because the developer company will claim security when the only real security is being completely open about it.
Theres no such thing as pirating in China.
It will happen before we run out.
Before we run out the maximum supply rate will drop so there won't be enough to go round thus triggering some sort of crisis.
At the moment the world consumes 80million barrels a day (mbpd), 20million of those are used by the USA alone who only have 4% of the worlds population !
The USA has oil reserves of 50 billion barrels and at the current rate of usage (which is predicted to rise by at least 1.5% per year) of 7.3 billion per year would exhaust its reserves in 7 years. Consequently the USA currently imports about 30% of its oil from the middle east and another 20% from Africa and elsewhere. 40% of all US oil usage is petrolium based for transportation. Based on this the US oil reserves will run out in about 14 years.
The middle east controls 65% of the worlds oil reserves. Thats 685 billion barrels of the worlds 1050 billion. Saudi Arabia has about 260 billion and has the worlds largest reserves. Iraq, UAE and Kuwait have 97 billion, Iran 90 billion with others making up the rest.
As far as I can make out from Google, experts only expect another 200billion barrels of oil reserves to be discovered at the most. This is only an estimate, not based on known oil wells whose reserves have not been measured but on a guess of "how much oil we don't know about".
At the moment about 10 billion barrels of oil is discovered per year which has been steadily declining since 1965 and based on the current trend is expected to reach 0 by about 2020.
At the current rate of world oil usage (80mbpd), with the current amount of reserves (1050Gb) that would give us 1050b / (365x80m) = 36 years.
China is rapidly becoming the next economic superpower closely followed by India and Pakistan who together constitute over a third of the worlds population. This and many other factors mean that world oil consumption will continue to rise to 120mbpd by 2030 even with conservative predictions.
Consumption is in fact never likely to reach these levels because by 2030 time the worlds reserve levels are likely to be so low that only a 3 or 4 countries will be supplying 90% of the worlds oil. This means that the rate of production will be greatly reduced because the maximum sustained rate of production of 4 countries may only be 40mbpd.
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm
According to this trend that predicts oil production rates will start to fall when we reach 50% usage of all oil that has ever existed, the supply rate of oil will increasingly fail to meet demand as time progresses.
What with the USA invading Iraq obviously to secure the worlds largest oil fields (WMD lol ! Evil Dictator lol !) and establish even more military prescence in the region of the worlds largest oil reserves, I can see major conflicts between the USA, Europe and China, India, Pakistan and Russia with the middle east stuck in the middle as soon as 2020 and definately by 2030. Especially if you bear in mind that the USA spends about $500billion on its military every year and China with the most manpower on earth is rapidly expanding its military program and is the 2nd largest arms spender with a measly $30billion.
Theres alot of talk about "renewable energy" and alternative power sources but oil supplies 40% of the worlds power needs and I'm extremely sceptical that we'll even replace 1% of our power needs with non-oil based power within the next 20 years by wich time it will be too late.
Nothing to worry about but I reckon that the earth will be rather desolate and the population reduced by 2 thirds by 2040 if not earlier.
You can mount your iriver hp-120 via scsi disk support and the usb mass storage device driver.
Just like one of those usb flash driver key thingumys.
All these things are great but of no use to me. If I had all these things then I might actually get some work done so I need it to :
1) Crash Constantly
2) Closed source so it can't be fixed
3) The minimum network support required is for worm propogation.
4) Foiled ! IIS unfortunately fits your criteria.
5) The whole point of not being near your computer is not being able to work.
6) Foiled again ! VB is the best !
Now can you see why people don't want to use linux ?
If you don't like it, don't use it ?
Or don't change kernels often, make a script to make the upgrade quickly and without thinking, get someone else to do it or (gasp) manage your time better.