Why would you ever want your creative ideas to become _part_ of the OS? IMO the ideal OS should be 100% transparent and you never know of its existance. It would facilitate the seamless transport of information, ideas, and media. Beyond perfect natural voice recognition, I don't see any potential evolution of the OS as significant.
we can't see motion faster than around 25-30fps, but this is referring to motion in the real world which is not a 'snapshot' like in a video game. motion in the real world is more like how a film camera takes pictures, the object in motion appears more blurry the faster it is moving. whereas on a computer in a video game we are seeing snapshots of everything still in time, nothing is motion blurred, so you can see much finer FPS, well over 60fps.
refresh rates trigger different sensors in our eyes, rods and cones. you will observe that you can see flashing or strobing effects much better in your periphial vision than straight on. i can instantly see the different between 60,75,100 hz refresh rates on CRTs after looking at them for so long.
VGA at 3" -> a pixel every.095mm, "a human can resolve distances of about 0.93 millimeters at a distance of one meter" wikipedia, 1000 /.93 *.095 = 102mm
So any farther than 10cm (3.9") from the display and you cant see the full detail of the image displayed. I guess it will work.
Charter flights 1) use more fuel. 2) cost twice as much or more. 3) are more risky. 4) are much slower.
Just imagine if all flight was moved to charter flights, you would have 1) an energy crises 2) magnitudes more accidents 3) am impossible traffic system to control. Instead of waiting in line in the terminal, you would be waiting on the runway for 2 hours to take off.
Trains are not the answer either, our country is too spread out for it to be feasible, this is not Europe, Japan, or England. Trains are defintely needed in larger cities such as LA, but they cannot come close to replacing the airline system.
This country needs an entirely new method of mass transportation. Figure it out and you will be richer than Gates. Its too bad we didn't spend the 300B on research for teleporters, its probably a lot harder to hijack a teleporter!
Making a keyboard without any parts that were manufactured or assembled outside of the USA, is this even possible? What about a whole computer? How much do you think it would cost?
I agree that its FUD. But, the logger doesn't need to know your typing cadence. For example, say it stores the last 20 characters, then over the next X characters it sends out that data in the form of delays. By slightly buffering the X characters and sending them out in an even flow, encoding the delay for the 20 characters within.
I don't see how you can get around the other delays though, OS, memory, buffer, and CPU delays should all be neglible, but the TCP delays are going to blow your packet delaying away unless you have a really fast connection, honestly I don't see this working over the internet.
There are also some insights in "Chris Crawford on Game Design" as well, but I think you will find "The Art of Interactive Design" more closely relating to your question.
As for a solution, Chris has been working on that for the last 15 years or so. He has a free engine out you can play around with to create interactive stories, but it uses a new language which has kind of a steep learning curve, but it is very powerful once you know it.
For games to take the next step in interactivity we will require a complete change in mindset of what a game is, and people just aren't ready for that, yet...
I don't think I have ever enjoyed browsing a site that has exclusively used flash. One of the biggest benefits of HTML is a standardization of GUI controls, with flash that goes right out the window. The only flash sites I have seen that are not totally annoying and worthless are from car manufacturers, they have huge budgets to spend on design and development of their sites, even then they are substandard to HTML sites in usability.
Most of the examples given are highly influenced by outside advertising and trends, of course they are going exhibit long tails because they are driven by mass media and a huge blitz of advertising when any given movie, show, song, book, or album is released. The only example cited that is most independant of mass marketing is youtube, and of course it exhibits a long tail because of its own indexing system. If youtube didn't have most popular indexes to go from and only served you random videos the tail would be much shorter.
An analysis of the 5.1 million videos uploaded to the site as of July 25 shows that the top 10% best-played of them made up 79% of the 7.56 billion total plays, with the top 20% making up 89%."
A tail will exist for everything, in any given subset of objects the better ones are going to be used/viewed/accessed more often. Since everything is bound by the 4th dimension of time, new objects will be more popular than old, at least when looked at in the 4th dimension.
Unless you are a criminal, who cares if all these things are spying on you. You can't do anything but complain about it, so just go on and live your life and have fun. Be happy you are lucky enough to live in the USA and not Russia where you have wait in line for toilet paper, or China where you have to be rationed toilet paper, or Iran where there is no toilet paper! God Bless Toilet Pap... oh I mean, America! Oh yeah we aren't doing that anymore, Happy America Everyone!
If the Virtual Console is based on a subscription rather than a pay per software model it will blow away XBOX live. I would gladly buy a Wii and $10/month subscription to play any NES/SNES/N64 game ever made. If people have to buy them though it will never take off. Nintendos true power is its huge arsenal of IP, which can be immediately leveraged by its even bigger back catalog of iconic mega hit games. Virtual Console could easily be the device that unites a nostalgic era of 80s gamers and their kids.
"Evidently the study highlighted three different pricing structures. The first was a subscription based package that would enable users to rent and play any game they wanted for $14.99 per month. Meanwhile, NES titles were listed for approximately $2.99 and N64 titles for a more expensive $19.99. These numbers are naturally neither finalized nor confirmed by Nintendo itself. " - http://wii.ign.com/articles/680/680846p1.html
People only ride a train if it is better than driving. In 99% of the country, it isn't. Only when it costs $100/day to park your car in NYC does riding a train start to pay off, then you have to worry about getting mugged and sitting in someones urine. You shouldn't be surprised that people will pay a lot for that safety, and if it ruins the environment, oh well. Just look at LA, you wait 2 hours in traffic to go 1 mile, and those people would rather bang their heads against their steering wheel all day, than suck it up and sit in a train for 20 minutes, and spend the rest of their time with their families.
The only city I have ever been in that puts the environment before the people is the Denver, CO area, they have more laws against polution, housing, and urban sprawl than any where else in the US I have seen.
So having a monopoly flush most of our money down the toilet is ok as long as 1% of it is going to a pie in sky research lab? Anyone today with enough smarts to come up with 'the next big thing' can easily support themselves and devote 90% of their life to a project if they choose to do so.
We will have far fewer great discoveries and inventions compared to the past century for a very simple reason, all of the stuff capable of being invented and discovered by one person has mostly passed. It now takes a huge team of specialized skills just to make an incremental improvement over a past invention, let alone discovering something totally new and breakthrough. The knowledge needed to make a great discovery spans many fields, and is impossible for one person to master, of course there are always exceptions, like Al Gore;)
yeah I figured that was the biggest error in my guess. even with a 10^6 correction it would still take 3-15 million Blue Gene supercomputers to simulate the human brain in real time, which is quite astounding. looking at specific problems in the guess is futile though, as our understanding of the brain and its working are laughably simple. regardless the guess does give us a rough idea of what it would take to simulate the brain with a simple artificial neuron model.
since a 'calculation' for one artificial neuron mostly involves a summation of weights, we can view one total step as 2 X the number of synapses we wish to analyze. or 200 - 1000 trillion calculations for one step. by step i mean summing all inputs and pushing the result to an output for each neuron. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_neuron
using the fastest computer in the world 1 step would only take around 1 - 5 seconds, not counting storing all of that information. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Gene
so how fast do we think? well i couldn't find anything on this so lets get a quick estimate. the average neuron is.1m in length.1 / c = 3.3x10^-10 or 333 picoseconds. now lets add in some delay for the chemicals in the neurons to do their thing, this is probably much slower than the electrical impulse, so lets say 3.3 nanoseconds.
so assuming our computers could network instantly, and store the data used instantly, we would need 3-15 trillion Blue Gene supercomputers to simulate the human brain in real time. or if we are using pentium 4s we would only need 21-105 trillion pentium 4s.
man thats a lot of cpus.
number of computers in the world: ~300 million http://www.aneki.com/computers.html guess at average FLOPs per computer: 40 GFLOPs total FLOPs of worlds personal computers: 1.2 PFLOPs time to calculate one brain step if all computers in the world were networked:.2 -.8 seconds
using moores law, when will a single computer be fast enough to simulate the human brain in real time? 200-1000 trillion calculations per step = ~600 trillion every 3.3ns = 181x10^18 or 181exeFLOPs 181exaFLOPS / 40GFLOPS = 2^n, n=32 32*18mo = 48 years based on personal computer technology
or 28 years based on supercomputer technology
of course a real neural network will contain highly parallel processing and using a specific chip design we will probably be able to simulate a brain much sooner, perhaps in the order of 10-20 years.
"It carried photos of Bigelow employees and insects that scientists hope to study to determine how well they survive the flight."
After a critical accident leading to the ship being sucked into a wormhole, gaint insect humaniods that look like Bigelow return and use his fortune to free all insect kind...
Geez, with a title like that I was expecting at least a rough estimate by some tech know it all on the breakdown of each widget that goes into the ipod. Thank you, please come again!
seriously, you would get a VGA touchscreen, 620mhz cpu, a library of several thousand apps, you could hack it to run linux if you wanted, and would only cost you about $200-400.
Slashdot Mirror
Why would you ever want your creative ideas to become _part_ of the OS? IMO the ideal OS should be 100% transparent and you never know of its existance. It would facilitate the seamless transport of information, ideas, and media. Beyond perfect natural voice recognition, I don't see any potential evolution of the OS as significant.
you can also add about 5 stupid memory stick formats that no one uses except sony and their buddies.
Does Dell and Apple pay for this or Sony?
http://www.pornotube.com/
Waves goodbye to your bandwidth.
we can't see motion faster than around 25-30fps, but this is referring to motion in the real world which is not a 'snapshot' like in a video game. motion in the real world is more like how a film camera takes pictures, the object in motion appears more blurry the faster it is moving. whereas on a computer in a video game we are seeing snapshots of everything still in time, nothing is motion blurred, so you can see much finer FPS, well over 60fps.
refresh rates trigger different sensors in our eyes, rods and cones. you will observe that you can see flashing or strobing effects much better in your periphial vision than straight on. i can instantly see the different between 60,75,100 hz refresh rates on CRTs after looking at them for so long.
VGA at 3" -> a pixel every .095mm, "a human can resolve distances of about 0.93 millimeters at a distance of one meter" wikipedia, 1000 / .93 * .095 = 102mm
So any farther than 10cm (3.9") from the display and you cant see the full detail of the image displayed. I guess it will work.
Charter flights
v etaxchart/taxchart.html
1) use more fuel.
2) cost twice as much or more.
3) are more risky.
4) are much slower.
Just imagine if all flight was moved to charter flights, you would have 1) an energy crises 2) magnitudes more accidents 3) am impossible traffic system to control. Instead of waiting in line in the terminal, you would be waiting on the runway for 2 hours to take off.
Trains are not the answer either, our country is too spread out for it to be feasible, this is not Europe, Japan, or England. Trains are defintely needed in larger cities such as LA, but they cannot come close to replacing the airline system.
This country needs an entirely new method of mass transportation. Figure it out and you will be richer than Gates. Its too bad we didn't spend the 300B on research for teleporters, its probably a lot harder to hijack a teleporter!
http://nationalpriorities.org/auxiliary/interacti
Simply move your datacenter up the mountain, farther North, or perhaps underground.
Making a keyboard without any parts that were manufactured or assembled outside of the USA, is this even possible? What about a whole computer? How much do you think it would cost?
I agree that its FUD. But, the logger doesn't need to know your typing cadence. For example, say it stores the last 20 characters, then over the next X characters it sends out that data in the form of delays. By slightly buffering the X characters and sending them out in an even flow, encoding the delay for the 20 characters within.
I don't see how you can get around the other delays though, OS, memory, buffer, and CPU delays should all be neglible, but the TCP delays are going to blow your packet delaying away unless you have a really fast connection, honestly I don't see this working over the internet.
Your answer lies within the following book:3 47914-4633758?v=glance&n=283155
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1886411840/102-6
There are also some insights in "Chris Crawford on Game Design" as well, but I think you will find "The Art of Interactive Design" more closely relating to your question.
As for a solution, Chris has been working on that for the last 15 years or so. He has a free engine out you can play around with to create interactive stories, but it uses a new language which has kind of a steep learning curve, but it is very powerful once you know it.
For games to take the next step in interactivity we will require a complete change in mindset of what a game is, and people just aren't ready for that, yet...
Maybe they should license Steam for their next release of 'interactive brown textures'. Perhaps its not piracy hurting id game sales.
I don't think I have ever enjoyed browsing a site that has exclusively used flash. One of the biggest benefits of HTML is a standardization of GUI controls, with flash that goes right out the window. The only flash sites I have seen that are not totally annoying and worthless are from car manufacturers, they have huge budgets to spend on design and development of their sites, even then they are substandard to HTML sites in usability.
http://www.useit.com/alertbox/20001029.html
http://www.webpagesthatsuck.com/main.html
http://dack.com/web/flash_evil.html
Most of the examples given are highly influenced by outside advertising and trends, of course they are going exhibit long tails because they are driven by mass media and a huge blitz of advertising when any given movie, show, song, book, or album is released. The only example cited that is most independant of mass marketing is youtube, and of course it exhibits a long tail because of its own indexing system. If youtube didn't have most popular indexes to go from and only served you random videos the tail would be much shorter.
An analysis of the 5.1 million videos uploaded to the site as of July 25 shows that the top 10% best-played of them made up 79% of the 7.56 billion total plays, with the top 20% making up 89%."
A tail will exist for everything, in any given subset of objects the better ones are going to be used/viewed/accessed more often. Since everything is bound by the 4th dimension of time, new objects will be more popular than old, at least when looked at in the 4th dimension.
Unless you are a criminal, who cares if all these things are spying on you. You can't do anything but complain about it, so just go on and live your life and have fun. Be happy you are lucky enough to live in the USA and not Russia where you have wait in line for toilet paper, or China where you have to be rationed toilet paper, or Iran where there is no toilet paper! God Bless Toilet Pap... oh I mean, America! Oh yeah we aren't doing that anymore, Happy America Everyone!
If the Virtual Console is based on a subscription rather than a pay per software model it will blow away XBOX live. I would gladly buy a Wii and $10/month subscription to play any NES/SNES/N64 game ever made. If people have to buy them though it will never take off. Nintendos true power is its huge arsenal of IP, which can be immediately leveraged by its even bigger back catalog of iconic mega hit games. Virtual Console could easily be the device that unites a nostalgic era of 80s gamers and their kids.
"Evidently the study highlighted three different pricing structures. The first was a subscription based package that would enable users to rent and play any game they wanted for $14.99 per month. Meanwhile, NES titles were listed for approximately $2.99 and N64 titles for a more expensive $19.99. These numbers are naturally neither finalized nor confirmed by Nintendo itself. " - http://wii.ign.com/articles/680/680846p1.html
People only ride a train if it is better than driving. In 99% of the country, it isn't. Only when it costs $100/day to park your car in NYC does riding a train start to pay off, then you have to worry about getting mugged and sitting in someones urine. You shouldn't be surprised that people will pay a lot for that safety, and if it ruins the environment, oh well. Just look at LA, you wait 2 hours in traffic to go 1 mile, and those people would rather bang their heads against their steering wheel all day, than suck it up and sit in a train for 20 minutes, and spend the rest of their time with their families.
The only city I have ever been in that puts the environment before the people is the Denver, CO area, they have more laws against polution, housing, and urban sprawl than any where else in the US I have seen.
So having a monopoly flush most of our money down the toilet is ok as long as 1% of it is going to a pie in sky research lab? Anyone today with enough smarts to come up with 'the next big thing' can easily support themselves and devote 90% of their life to a project if they choose to do so.
;)
We will have far fewer great discoveries and inventions compared to the past century for a very simple reason, all of the stuff capable of being invented and discovered by one person has mostly passed. It now takes a huge team of specialized skills just to make an incremental improvement over a past invention, let alone discovering something totally new and breakthrough. The knowledge needed to make a great discovery spans many fields, and is impossible for one person to master, of course there are always exceptions, like Al Gore
yeah I figured that was the biggest error in my guess. even with a 10^6 correction it would still take 3-15 million Blue Gene supercomputers to simulate the human brain in real time, which is quite astounding. looking at specific problems in the guess is futile though, as our understanding of the brain and its working are laughably simple. regardless the guess does give us a rough idea of what it would take to simulate the brain with a simple artificial neuron model.
well the article is so short its not possible to comment on their implementation. so here are some calculations i did to amuse myself.
l iye2.shtml
? i=2795
.1m in length .1 / c = 3.3x10^-10 or 333 picoseconds. now lets add in some delay for the chemicals in the neurons to do their thing, this is probably much slower than the electrical impulse, so lets say 3.3 nanoseconds.
.2 - .8 seconds
number of neurons in the brain: 100 billion
http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2002/AniciaNdabaha
transistor count per CPU: ~300 million
http://www.anandtech.com/cpuchipsets/showdoc.aspx
average synaptic connections per neuron: 7000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuron
total number of synapses: 100 to 500 trillion
since a 'calculation' for one artificial neuron mostly involves a summation of weights, we can view one total step as 2 X the number of synapses we wish to analyze. or 200 - 1000 trillion calculations for one step. by step i mean summing all inputs and pushing the result to an output for each neuron.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_neuron
fastest computer in the world FLOPs: 280 trillion
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Gene
pentium 4 FLOPs: 40 GFLOP
using the fastest computer in the world 1 step would only take around 1 - 5 seconds, not counting storing all of that information.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Gene
so how fast do we think? well i couldn't find anything on this so lets get a quick estimate. the average neuron is
so assuming our computers could network instantly, and store the data used instantly, we would need 3-15 trillion Blue Gene supercomputers to simulate the human brain in real time. or if we are using pentium 4s we would only need 21-105 trillion pentium 4s.
man thats a lot of cpus.
number of computers in the world: ~300 million
http://www.aneki.com/computers.html
guess at average FLOPs per computer: 40 GFLOPs
total FLOPs of worlds personal computers: 1.2 PFLOPs
time to calculate one brain step if all computers in the world were networked:
using moores law, when will a single computer be fast enough to simulate the human brain in real time?
200-1000 trillion calculations per step = ~600 trillion every 3.3ns = 181x10^18 or 181exeFLOPs
181exaFLOPS / 40GFLOPS = 2^n, n=32
32*18mo = 48 years based on personal computer technology
or 28 years based on supercomputer technology
of course a real neural network will contain highly parallel processing and using a specific chip design we will probably be able to simulate a brain much sooner, perhaps in the order of 10-20 years.
"It carried photos of Bigelow employees and insects that scientists hope to study to determine how well they survive the flight."
After a critical accident leading to the ship being sucked into a wormhole, gaint insect humaniods that look like Bigelow return and use his fortune to free all insect kind...
"If he was gone two hours (flying at the speed of light), by the time he returned the world would be over."
Wouldn't he return in 2 hours?
"Unless you're playing Grand Theft Auto or watching HDTV"
Yeah, who does that these days? Grand Theft Whosit? Destroy all home computers!
Geez, with a title like that I was expecting at least a rough estimate by some tech know it all on the breakdown of each widget that goes into the ipod. Thank you, please come again!
seriously, you would get a VGA touchscreen, 620mhz cpu, a library of several thousand apps, you could hack it to run linux if you wanted, and would only cost you about $200-400.