From the comments on the photos: "That's amazing! How did you do it?" - in what sense can his achievement be called amazing? My Nokia N91 is now 3 years old, pretty much fit for the junk yard, and has done this with no hacks required or extra charges from the operator from day 1. And my father's Nokia phones have done this almost a decade ago. Seems to me the real source for amazement are the "features" Apple has implemented. But I guess having an "amazing" interface is worth the price?
How is this stopping fighting? It's quite the opposite - this may have an effect on the perception the U.S. public holds about the "security" services you have. Oh, and it's not that I think that people employed as spies or policemen outside the U.S. are in any way competent. Yours are just particularly arrogant, obnoxious and, unfortunately, powerful.
Yes, this wasn't his point (though it was an argument he made for his case, though a very very bad one), but I think the old geezer is missing the reason why the young whippersnappers are better than him in RTSes: they practice. The koreans who excel in Starcraft aren't 14 nor full of testosterone - they practice. Seems like the kids are doing 3 clicks a second? Try figuring out the keyboard commands, and you might get why. If you can't be bothered to learn how to play a new game, whether it's bowling or Total Annihilation, you won't get to see the finer nuances of strategy in that game. And even more case in point - once you've played a game like Starcraft enough, the way you think about it becomes similar to the way he describes chess masters thinking about their game.
The article is written by a clueless engineer-journalist who thinks game theory and Survivor design have anything to do with video games. Think again. The whole point of game theory is that you have more than 1 person interacting strategically, it has nothing to do with how to make Quake or World of Warcraft fun. And as is seen very often on Slashdot, just because you're fairly smart and can write code or design electronics or study micro-organisms, you don't have a clue about anything else.
Oh, one more thing: there is no "mandatory minimum" sample size. A sample of 70 (or even 1) is just as accurate in the sense of unbiasedness as a sample of 700. You get to choose the sample size depending on how accurate you want the confidence intervals or statistical tests to be (and how much money you want to put in the survey).
However, you state that the sample size for the men of "700 is quite small (too small for accuracy)". Please cite your authority on this. Without knowing the specifics of the survey design, it is not possible for me to determine, with the techniques I know, whether the minimum sample size should be 70, 700, or 7,000.
The normal distribution approximation we get from the CLT isn't "very good" with a sample size of 700. This has nothing to do with survey design. You may also want to know that the original point isn't to attack the survey as such, but the parent post.
In more detail, the purpose of this particular study is to provide an estimate of the probability of a randomly picked individual having one of the particular properties we are interested in, for example whether or not that individual has done computer troubleshooting. Some data is then gathered - the numbers of the survey. This is the only place where the survey methods are in any way relevant: they have to have a random sample, or the following becomes invalid. Now, an assumption is made that the previously mentioned property follows the Bernoulli distribution (binary variable). It can then be shown that the relative frequency of the observed individuals with the property is indeed the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the single parameter in the Bernoulli distribution, the probability of a randomly picked individual having the property. This of course can then be interpreted as the relative amount of individuals in the population that have the property. As to the accuracy, because of the CLT, we can infer that this estimator follows the normal distribution, and can then form confidence intervals. And the width of these confidence intervals (the accuracy of the estimator) is dependent on the sample size. So there, there's my authority.
It may bear mentioning that no, I'm not a statistician either, but an economist. But really, this is kids stuff, introductory statistics. Well ok, maximum likelihood estimation isn't, but the rest is, especially the part about confidence intervals.
Statistical inference is not dependent on the "size" of the sample space - it is equally valid to infer things from data that may get values from an infinite, uncountable set as it is to do similar inferences from a population that only has 3 possible values, thanks to the central limit theorem. Furthermore, sample size and the "size" of the sample space have no connection. For the purposes of inference, a sample is either large enough or not, but it doesn't matter in the least if the population from which the sample is drawn is enormous in comparison. This is why for example opinion polls are valid with just a few thousand respondents: regardless of whether the U.S. has 3 or 300 million inhabitants who have a relevant opinion, 3000 is enough to form confidence intervals of very good accuracy.
In this particular case, it is completely irrelevant whether the 2 samples are even close to being the same size. While 700 is quite small (too small for accuracy), it has no connection to the other sample at all. The only thing that can then be said about the 2 inferences is that the one about women is almost certainly quite a bit more accurate.
I'm fairly sure that's the rationale given by the Nazis too. Oh, and endanger Americans and allies? So now American lives are worth more than other people? I guess we non-americans will just start torturing you then, since that's the accepted policy.
It just occurred to me that the true goal shouldn't be showing the world as "Gordon" (or whoever) sees it with motion blur and all, but to create a real environment, where _our_ eyes create the motion blur. Now that would be realism.
Seriously, try to get a floppy drive, even one that isn't in perfect condition, just here in a western society, then imagine how hard it'll be to get them in someplace like India. Just because lots of them were made and used 25 years ago doesn't mean that they are still available now. Here in Finland I sure as hell can't find one, none of the larger computer hardware stores have any, there aren't any for auction and so on. What makes you think that there would be any in India?
And before you reply that all the used drives from here are taken there, think for a moment. What company would do that, and just how large is the profit of gathering, shipping and retailing such items to indeed quite poor people?
As for the software, I bet that there is an even smaller supply of such programs that would be usable on floppies back there. Again, where's the profit of selling Ms-Dos 3.0 to poor Indians, especially when even the Indians prefer 2k or XP? And as for downloading WordPerfect, try looking for one. There isn't one anywhere, except on the Underdogs, and I bet the Indians aren't using that. No, I am quite certain that the Indians are using warezed copies of 2k and XP bought for $2 at the street corner, simply because finding an older program is impossible.
Seriously, this isn't like the market for used cars or whatever, 10+ years old hardware and software isn't reused by some poor people, instead it's taken to a landfill. You just don't seem to realize the costs associated with getting the old stuff to a viable user. It's more like the case of telecommunications in the third world: landlines aren't being installed, everybody gets a cell phone instead. But I bet you think that the old landlines Americans and Europeans have used will be sold to the Indians?
Oh, one more thing:
Floppy drive: infinite, not available on the market
Win2k: $2, bought from a pirate
Average salary: $450
Because floppies and floppy drives aren't manufactured anymore. Not to mention that you can't fit a single application on a floppy that's in any way modern. I bet that an old WordPerfect or a Ms-Dos 3.0 copy on a floppy would be harder and more expensive for the Indians to obtain than a dvd drive and win2k.
(And yes you do need to prove one or the other, and make your proof solid so no one can come up with arguments to it, otherwise it is just a theory not scientific fact)
Umm, there are no such things as scientific facts beyond the theory, except in logic, philosophy and mathematics. Science is mostly unprovable because of the way logical induction works. And besides, even if something is called a "theory" doesn't mean that it's something completely ephemeral and without any relevance or that it doesn't match the observed world very well. For instance, the theory of evolution is just that, a theory, and cannot be proved in any logically binding way. Yet it explains a lot of the phenomena we have observed, and after some revisions hasn't yet been falsified.
Yeah, it's everywhere now. Let's just see about tomorrow's HS, if they aren't running the story or if it's just something very short then something is happening there.
I'm not saying there's a conspiracy, I'm saying that somebody took the news item _off the list_, for whatever reasons, while other, older news items from yesterday were left there. One possibility is that the police wanted it out. And what comes to the other reports none of the truly big media sources like HS, Aamulehti, or MTV3 have mentioned it anywhere accessible, but I have to admit the Iltasanomat story is fairly big. Please note that all the other sites/papers mentioned are still fairly small or specialized.
I guess you can point me to these mentions in whatever media there is. Because I sure as hell haven't seen anything, and I think I've looked really hard for them.
Well, the item sure as hell wasn't available on the list yesterday, and I still can't figure a way to get to it except using the search specifically for it. I bet you've seen the pictures of the list when it still was there, but if you checked the same list later, there was no link, somebody took it out. Same thing goes for tekstitv, it was there for a while. And I'd really like to hear about these "major news sources", maybe you're referring to quality sites like gamebase.fi?
What's completely, utterly amazing that there hasn't been a single mention of the incident in the news of any of the tv channels, nor anything in the major papers either. For a while there was a short item on the site of Helsingin Sanomat (the largest paper in Finland) but that was taken away after an hour or so. Makes you suspect that the police might actually be controlling any reporting on the subject? Guess that's it for truly independent mass media in Finland.
PeerGuardian helps in the fashion that it blocks all the _HUNDREDS_ of incoming connections the finnish police and various trade organizations have been trying. Yes, on my computer.
Also, there's a rumor going about that the finnish police have actually made backdoors into a lot of peoples computers by infecting the torrents that were available on finreactor. Quite illegal, if true. That's it for the ethics of the police I guess.
I guess I didn't mention CO2 emissions separately. But sure, go ahead and claim ownership in somebody else's country, as long as you let them do the same. Although I think you're going to lose when the Chinese vote that all American regulations will be thrown away.
Slashdot Mirror
Do I get one for posting in this thread?
From the comments on the photos: "That's amazing! How did you do it?" - in what sense can his achievement be called amazing? My Nokia N91 is now 3 years old, pretty much fit for the junk yard, and has done this with no hacks required or extra charges from the operator from day 1. And my father's Nokia phones have done this almost a decade ago. Seems to me the real source for amazement are the "features" Apple has implemented. But I guess having an "amazing" interface is worth the price?
How is this stopping fighting? It's quite the opposite - this may have an effect on the perception the U.S. public holds about the "security" services you have. Oh, and it's not that I think that people employed as spies or policemen outside the U.S. are in any way competent. Yours are just particularly arrogant, obnoxious and, unfortunately, powerful.
Yes, this wasn't his point (though it was an argument he made for his case, though a very very bad one), but I think the old geezer is missing the reason why the young whippersnappers are better than him in RTSes: they practice. The koreans who excel in Starcraft aren't 14 nor full of testosterone - they practice. Seems like the kids are doing 3 clicks a second? Try figuring out the keyboard commands, and you might get why. If you can't be bothered to learn how to play a new game, whether it's bowling or Total Annihilation, you won't get to see the finer nuances of strategy in that game. And even more case in point - once you've played a game like Starcraft enough, the way you think about it becomes similar to the way he describes chess masters thinking about their game.
Oh, and Civ isn't an RTS.
I'd say your post is a case study of what I was talking about. Unfortunately you and most of the people reading probably won't figure out why.
The article is written by a clueless engineer-journalist who thinks game theory and Survivor design have anything to do with video games. Think again. The whole point of game theory is that you have more than 1 person interacting strategically, it has nothing to do with how to make Quake or World of Warcraft fun. And as is seen very often on Slashdot, just because you're fairly smart and can write code or design electronics or study micro-organisms, you don't have a clue about anything else.
Oh, one more thing: there is no "mandatory minimum" sample size. A sample of 70 (or even 1) is just as accurate in the sense of unbiasedness as a sample of 700. You get to choose the sample size depending on how accurate you want the confidence intervals or statistical tests to be (and how much money you want to put in the survey).
In more detail, the purpose of this particular study is to provide an estimate of the probability of a randomly picked individual having one of the particular properties we are interested in, for example whether or not that individual has done computer troubleshooting. Some data is then gathered - the numbers of the survey. This is the only place where the survey methods are in any way relevant: they have to have a random sample, or the following becomes invalid. Now, an assumption is made that the previously mentioned property follows the Bernoulli distribution (binary variable). It can then be shown that the relative frequency of the observed individuals with the property is indeed the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the single parameter in the Bernoulli distribution, the probability of a randomly picked individual having the property. This of course can then be interpreted as the relative amount of individuals in the population that have the property. As to the accuracy, because of the CLT, we can infer that this estimator follows the normal distribution, and can then form confidence intervals. And the width of these confidence intervals (the accuracy of the estimator) is dependent on the sample size. So there, there's my authority.
It may bear mentioning that no, I'm not a statistician either, but an economist. But really, this is kids stuff, introductory statistics. Well ok, maximum likelihood estimation isn't, but the rest is, especially the part about confidence intervals.
Statistical inference is not dependent on the "size" of the sample space - it is equally valid to infer things from data that may get values from an infinite, uncountable set as it is to do similar inferences from a population that only has 3 possible values, thanks to the central limit theorem. Furthermore, sample size and the "size" of the sample space have no connection. For the purposes of inference, a sample is either large enough or not, but it doesn't matter in the least if the population from which the sample is drawn is enormous in comparison. This is why for example opinion polls are valid with just a few thousand respondents: regardless of whether the U.S. has 3 or 300 million inhabitants who have a relevant opinion, 3000 is enough to form confidence intervals of very good accuracy.
In this particular case, it is completely irrelevant whether the 2 samples are even close to being the same size. While 700 is quite small (too small for accuracy), it has no connection to the other sample at all. The only thing that can then be said about the 2 inferences is that the one about women is almost certainly quite a bit more accurate.
I'm fairly sure that's the rationale given by the Nazis too. Oh, and endanger Americans and allies? So now American lives are worth more than other people? I guess we non-americans will just start torturing you then, since that's the accepted policy.
/could
//you
///please
////leave
/////the
//////slashes
///////on
////////fark?
Apparently I have too few characters per line. Hope this helps.
I really do look like a middle aged dad/geek- regardless of my #insert cool tech gadget here#
Ever considered that it's not regardless, it's because?
Please take a second class in theoretical economics. Our models are quite a bit more complex than you seem to think.
How is the the fact that the police know who you are equivalent to the fact that you're a suspect?
It just occurred to me that the true goal shouldn't be showing the world as "Gordon" (or whoever) sees it with motion blur and all, but to create a real environment, where _our_ eyes create the motion blur. Now that would be realism.
Seriously, try to get a floppy drive, even one that isn't in perfect condition, just here in a western society, then imagine how hard it'll be to get them in someplace like India. Just because lots of them were made and used 25 years ago doesn't mean that they are still available now. Here in Finland I sure as hell can't find one, none of the larger computer hardware stores have any, there aren't any for auction and so on. What makes you think that there would be any in India?
And before you reply that all the used drives from here are taken there, think for a moment. What company would do that, and just how large is the profit of gathering, shipping and retailing such items to indeed quite poor people?
As for the software, I bet that there is an even smaller supply of such programs that would be usable on floppies back there. Again, where's the profit of selling Ms-Dos 3.0 to poor Indians, especially when even the Indians prefer 2k or XP? And as for downloading WordPerfect, try looking for one. There isn't one anywhere, except on the Underdogs, and I bet the Indians aren't using that. No, I am quite certain that the Indians are using warezed copies of 2k and XP bought for $2 at the street corner, simply because finding an older program is impossible.
Seriously, this isn't like the market for used cars or whatever, 10+ years old hardware and software isn't reused by some poor people, instead it's taken to a landfill. You just don't seem to realize the costs associated with getting the old stuff to a viable user. It's more like the case of telecommunications in the third world: landlines aren't being installed, everybody gets a cell phone instead. But I bet you think that the old landlines Americans and Europeans have used will be sold to the Indians?
Oh, one more thing:
Floppy drive: infinite, not available on the market
Win2k: $2, bought from a pirate
Average salary: $450
Yeah, get real.
Because floppies and floppy drives aren't manufactured anymore. Not to mention that you can't fit a single application on a floppy that's in any way modern. I bet that an old WordPerfect or a Ms-Dos 3.0 copy on a floppy would be harder and more expensive for the Indians to obtain than a dvd drive and win2k.
(And yes you do need to prove one or the other, and make your proof solid so no one can come up with arguments to it, otherwise it is just a theory not scientific fact)
Umm, there are no such things as scientific facts beyond the theory, except in logic, philosophy and mathematics. Science is mostly unprovable because of the way logical induction works. And besides, even if something is called a "theory" doesn't mean that it's something completely ephemeral and without any relevance or that it doesn't match the observed world very well. For instance, the theory of evolution is just that, a theory, and cannot be proved in any logically binding way. Yet it explains a lot of the phenomena we have observed, and after some revisions hasn't yet been falsified.
Yeah, it's everywhere now. Let's just see about tomorrow's HS, if they aren't running the story or if it's just something very short then something is happening there.
I'm not saying there's a conspiracy, I'm saying that somebody took the news item _off the list_, for whatever reasons, while other, older news items from yesterday were left there. One possibility is that the police wanted it out. And what comes to the other reports none of the truly big media sources like HS, Aamulehti, or MTV3 have mentioned it anywhere accessible, but I have to admit the Iltasanomat story is fairly big. Please note that all the other sites/papers mentioned are still fairly small or specialized.
I guess you can point me to these mentions in whatever media there is. Because I sure as hell haven't seen anything, and I think I've looked really hard for them.
Well, the item sure as hell wasn't available on the list yesterday, and I still can't figure a way to get to it except using the search specifically for it. I bet you've seen the pictures of the list when it still was there, but if you checked the same list later, there was no link, somebody took it out. Same thing goes for tekstitv, it was there for a while. And I'd really like to hear about these "major news sources", maybe you're referring to quality sites like gamebase.fi?
What's completely, utterly amazing that there hasn't been a single mention of the incident in the news of any of the tv channels, nor anything in the major papers either. For a while there was a short item on the site of Helsingin Sanomat (the largest paper in Finland) but that was taken away after an hour or so. Makes you suspect that the police might actually be controlling any reporting on the subject? Guess that's it for truly independent mass media in Finland.
PeerGuardian helps in the fashion that it blocks all the _HUNDREDS_ of incoming connections the finnish police and various trade organizations have been trying. Yes, on my computer.
Also, there's a rumor going about that the finnish police have actually made backdoors into a lot of peoples computers by infecting the torrents that were available on finreactor. Quite illegal, if true. That's it for the ethics of the police I guess.
I guess I didn't mention CO2 emissions separately. But sure, go ahead and claim ownership in somebody else's country, as long as you let them do the same. Although I think you're going to lose when the Chinese vote that all American regulations will be thrown away.