The October 10 New Yorker magazine has a nice companion piece to this story, "The Zombie Hunters: On the trail of cyberextortionists" by Evan Ratliff. The article describes the tactics of the extortionists and those who track them down or thwart their attacks. Probably nothing new to the/. crowd, but a good read nonetheless. Here's a link.
I'm playing it now on my Phantom, which is right next to my DVD playing Dreamcast, and SNES with the Playstation CDROM expansion! It's great and well worth the $80! Huh, what NDA? Oh, never mind...
IANAL, but I think the GPL protects Linux rather than hurts it. Without the GPL, there probably would not be the free and open Linux we see today. It would likely be just another struggling proprietary OS destined to disappear once its owner was bought out or went bankrupt or just gave up on it (see OS/2). I really don't care if giant corporations adopt Linux or not, I just want a good tool that helps me get work done and helps me have fun on occasion as well.
The fact that Linux is free and open means, almost by definition, that it cannot have "success" in the usual sense. It cannot be easily sold shrinkwrapped for profit. And it cannot be closed up to thwart competitors either. By the same measure, it also means that it cannot fail either, for there will always be someone for whom it is the right tool at the right time even if MegaCorp Inc. can't make a dime off of it. The GPL makes this possible. Linux isn't going to die anytime soon, but it probably isn't going to be the OS of your grandma either, that is until it's widely used in cell phones, but that's another story!
I guess this is some more proof that the OpenOffice.org team is doing a good job and Microsoft is feeling the heat. They aren't in any immediate danger of big losses, but long term they will be in better shape by supporting widely adopted open formats/standards. Afterall, they won the office suite war years ago, supporting things like pdf (and opendocument eventually) is not going to cost them customers. It will help them keep them along with the bundling deals they now enjoy with the major PC manufacturers. This is the same as money from the tobacco industry going into stop smoking campaigns, it really isn't going to put big tobacco out of business because people pick up smoking for nonrational reasons and then are ensnared by a powerful addiction. Most large organizations are hooked on Office already, giving them pdf export helps keep many from even thinking about dropping it cold turkey for something like OO.org.
I for one just got tired Windows. As more and more of what I do with my computer is web based and doesn't require Windows, I decided to throw in a new hard drive and install Ubuntu. Now Windows is used for games and a few apps that I need to run from time to time. As alternatives like Linux mature, Microsoft is going to have its hands full keeping customers who want to cut costs and get more out of their computers. Licensing deals that drive customers away are not going to help them in the long run.
Heh heh, that would be a surprise and it would certainly explain some of the delays in releasing FFXII. That game has been practically MIA for quite some time now. If it were to become a PS3 launch title exclusive, it would move some consoles. But how unoriginal that would be. A real surprise would be if Sony announced that they were buying Square-Enix and it would stick it to Microsoft and Nintendo simultaneously by forever making the Japanese RPG giant a Sony company.
The big surprise will be that Sony will provide low interest financing for the purchase of new Playstation 3s and two games! Low low rates, and everyone leaves with a PS3 regardless of income! Bad credit? No problem! No job? Now problem! Everyone plays!
Seriously, I'm expecting that first, the PS3 release date in Japan is going to slip into Fall 2006. Not having playable demos at TGS says to me that there is no way they'll have good solid games ready by Spring. As for their surprise, I'm going with a new version of the popular Eye Toy being part of the basic PS3 bundle and perhaps being touted as an intrinsic part of the PS3 experience.
As others have already posted, the p2p scene is only going to be pushed further underground now. Laws and lawsuits are not going to stop the swapping of copyright protected materials and of course the commercial pirates won't be stopped either. That being said, I think that p2p will disappear from the political landscape because anyone with a high profile service is going to be sued out of existence right away, leaving only the largely invisible underground.
Out of sight is out of mind! *AA will declare victory since there's no point in chasing ghosts (as long as they keep quiet). And the politicians will also declare victory since there is no political hay to be made railing against something that's largely invisible and too technical for ordinary folks to care about. So if everyone is patient, the game will soon be over and those in the know can return to their regularly scheduled filesharing, legal and otherwise.
What I had in mind was using the existing buttons like the remotes you often find in hotel rooms. For this you just need buttons for next and previous channel and more volume and less volume. The D-pad alone is good enough for this. If you want to get fancy without making it too complicated, the remote could have a channel jump feature where if you hold the button down in one direction or the other it would skip through the channels quickly. The key thing is to keep it simple.
Okay okay, it looks like a remote control, but can you actually control the TV with it? Seriously, I think that is a feature that would complete the set. The more I think about it, the better I like this new controller and really want to see the games. So if a person can just pick this up, turn the TV on with it, adjust the volume and channel, turn on the Revolution, and play, that would be perfect! Wow, imagine that people start using this as their primary remote, then they'd always be a click away from playing a game. You know, that's where Nintendo might be going with this. Gaming becomes as casual as using a TV remote.
The real test of any model is what happens to it when pushed to the extremes. In the past, the console hardware has usually been a loss leader. The console manufacturer takes a loss on the hardware but makes it up on the royalties paid to them by game publishers on each copy of a game sold. But what are the limits of this? A large console loss means they have to ask for bigger royalties. Asking for larger royalties will scare off potential 3rd parties which is particularly bad if you are not the market leader. This is made worst by the reputedly much higher development cost associated with the next gen consoles like the 360. Finally, if all of these increased costs are passed on to the consumer, it usually means fewer sales. At some point, the gap simply cannot be filled and the console maker never sees a profit.
Right now, it looks like both Microsoft and Sony are in the same boat. Sony has an advantage being the current market leader. But Sony's manufacturing costs are likely similar to Microsoft's so I would guess that they will want a bigger cut from publishers who may balk at this. The old model seems strained in this bigger is better mode. It seems that Microsoft and Sony are being lured upon the rocks by the now ancient siren's song of the home media convergence device. They are hoping that people will buy their boxes for things other than games, like downloadable movies and online shopping, etc... Honestly, I just don't see this happening. But even that doesn't make any sense if you are selling the hardware at a loss. So maybe Nintendo really is on the right track by focusing on affordability and innovative gameplay that doesn't depend on pushing more and more polygons on the screen.
All I can say is congratulations to BitTorrent! As far as my own use of it is concerned, it's the best thing to come along since FTP, so I'm happy to see Bram and company hitting the big time with some major VC cash (plus $10 of my own, hee hee). Besides, he's got a kid to support, and I know that isn't cheap!
While it will take more than days, I think that Microsoft will eventually come around and support OpenDocument. There's no technical reason that they cannot and Microsoft can't afford to let big customers get away. Once large companies and governments realize that they can get along just fine without Microsoft products, it will be even harder to get them back on the crack, so to speak. So I wouldn't be surprised if there are already betas running in Microsoft somewhere that support OpenDocument and they run on the Microsoft Linux Distro too!
Anyway, in the end, the customer is always right. So Microsoft will come around if OpenDocument gets any kind of real traction.
This could actually be a winning strategy if RIAA decided to jump right in a create a complete Digital Parenting Companion. This package would do it all, detect and remove spyware, "illegal" digital downloads, and porn. It would also include a virus scanner and firewall with an easy to use interface with lots of instructional video clips. They could also package a fun to view DVD with shows aimed and younger kids teaching them the evils of illegal media downloads. Heck, maybe RIAA should buy AOL before Mr. Gates gets his hands on it! A soft sell approach might well pay some big dividends for RIAA as they educate the public and direct them to legal sources of digital media complete with that oh so tasty DRM that everyone's talkin' about!
Practically speaking I guess this means we should all stay away from questionable (*cough*pr0n*cough*) sites for a few days. Seriously, we all know where these exploits are likely to show up first...
Coming out on Nov 22 is actually pretty good timing. The weekend after Thanksgiving is generally one of the biggest shopping days in the U.S.. So with smart marketing, they should move a fair number of Xbox 360s just on the wave of shopping. The two questions I would have are, what new games will be available, and what current popular Xbox titles will run on it?
If they do well enough, Xbox 360 will be considered the hot item of the holiday season and sell even better. As always though, the games will tell the tale.
Before the tinfoil hatters come out, and blame the ??AA or the Government, think: when was the last time you watched one of those old Star Trek episodes you taped 15 years ago "in case you ever wanted to watch them again"?
Absolutely. I finally decided to reclaim all of the space those old tapes were taking up and started buying DVD boxed sets. As long as TiVo remains easy to use for most people and doesn't become too expensive, most people won't care about DRM. The question is, will the content owners get so greedy that they impose more and more restrictive DRM? That's the deal breaker, and right now I'm not convinced that the media giants are smart enough to realize this. They still seem intent on forcing people to pay everytime you watch a show or play a song. That's the kind of thinking that will make pirates of us all.
Lately Microsoft seems determined to offer multiple versions of their products which on the surface could lead to some market confusion. But in the end, no matter what MS does, they cannot really change how Windows is usually being bought and installed. Windows is not ice cream! Most people are going to get Vista preinstalled on new PCs which means that whatever Dell or HP decides to bundle with their main packages is going to be what people get. Corporations are probably not going to bite on Vista at all. Heck, many corps are still running Windows 2000 because it meets their needs. Vista isn't going to change that.
For all of its warts, once Windows 2000 came out, MS had released an OS that for the most part has proven itself to be good enough. So it's really hard to see how they're going to move Vista copies at all beyond the preload channel, especially if they get crazy with the pricing.
I for one have no plans to upgrade to Vista. I'd love to move away from Windows altogether, but gaming and certain development projects require that I keep it. And I don't really see anything being offered in Vista that would be worth the time and expense to upgrade. Now if upgrades to the Ultimate Edition were $19.95, I might consider it, but that just isn't going to happen now is it?
This initiative is really about saving Windows. People aren't going to buy a new home PC in order to run the latest version of Microsoft Office, but they might if there are games they want and cannot mentally justify buying a games console, afterall a PC can do more than just play games, right? So when Jane buys that PC at Best Buy and a bunch of games (and Quicken of course), Microsoft gets its cut of the action via the copy of Windows that is preinstalled on the new PC.
Granted, PC sales these days don't compare to console sales, but MS needs to keep Windows in play. And if they do a good job with their XNA development platform, they can keep games coming from the PC to the Xbox 360. In a sense, Microsoft really needs to keep the PC out there as a viable game platform to farm new talent and properties. Games are also a strong hedge for them against defections to Macintosh or Linux for most PC users.
A few years ago I got an interview with Microsoft and on the whole it very interesting. They flew me out to Redmond and footed the bill for everything. I didn't get the job, but I did meet some interesting people and on the whole had a good time. Next time ESR, go talk to them first and then refuse. Freebies don't pop up everyday you know!;)
Ironically, the patching truly is for the sake of the children. After this controversy it all seems pretty apparent that a significant portion of sales of GTA are for/by people under the age of 17. Otherwise it really doesn't make any economic sense to go to the trouble and expense of patching and rereleasing the game, a game that has already sold millions of copies. People old enough to play this game are old enough to order the AO version online or find a retailer who carries it even if WalMart doesn't. Heck, I saw a copy of the old unpatched PS2 version at the Virgin Megastore in Chicago just the other day. So patching it just makes it "safe" for WalMart to carry again and sell to 12 year old Johnny or his mom. Mo money for R* and mo money for the Waltons. Life is good again...
Heh heh, silly rabbit, tricks are for kids! The consumer is not going to bite on $60 games. Look at what happened to DVD movies which were quite expensive initially but now run $20 and less for many titles, even some new releases. The only DVDs that get a premium market are specialty items like Anime, and even those are mercilessly marked down after a few months. We're talking about entertainment here! So unless these next generation games are going to come to my house and blow me, forget about $60. I'll wait for the mark downs or go without.
If they don't follow up with more interesting games then the foot may be planted firmly in the mouth. I bought a PSP a couple of weeks ago and so far I'm pretty happy with it playing Lumines, Wipeout Pure, and tooling around with the web browser, but I really want to see some really interesting stuff before the year is out. What I'd really like to see in the near term is Flash support for the browser which would suddenly make thousands of web games potentially playable on the PSP. I wonder if Sony is actually afraid of that?
In any case, it looks like the UK launch has gone pretty well for Sony. But they'd better not rest because quite honestly, the DS has the better stable of games right now.
Slashdot Mirror
The October 10 New Yorker magazine has a nice companion piece to this story, "The Zombie Hunters: On the trail of cyberextortionists" by Evan Ratliff. The article describes the tactics of the extortionists and those who track them down or thwart their attacks. Probably nothing new to the /. crowd, but a good read nonetheless. Here's a link.
1 010fa_fact
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/05
I'm playing it now on my Phantom, which is right next to my DVD playing Dreamcast, and SNES with the Playstation CDROM expansion! It's great and well worth the $80! Huh, what NDA? Oh, never mind...
IANAL, but I think the GPL protects Linux rather than hurts it. Without the GPL, there probably would not be the free and open Linux we see today. It would likely be just another struggling proprietary OS destined to disappear once its owner was bought out or went bankrupt or just gave up on it (see OS/2). I really don't care if giant corporations adopt Linux or not, I just want a good tool that helps me get work done and helps me have fun on occasion as well.
The fact that Linux is free and open means, almost by definition, that it cannot have "success" in the usual sense. It cannot be easily sold shrinkwrapped for profit. And it cannot be closed up to thwart competitors either. By the same measure, it also means that it cannot fail either, for there will always be someone for whom it is the right tool at the right time even if MegaCorp Inc. can't make a dime off of it. The GPL makes this possible. Linux isn't going to die anytime soon, but it probably isn't going to be the OS of your grandma either, that is until it's widely used in cell phones, but that's another story!
I guess this is some more proof that the OpenOffice.org team is doing a good job and Microsoft is feeling the heat. They aren't in any immediate danger of big losses, but long term they will be in better shape by supporting widely adopted open formats/standards. Afterall, they won the office suite war years ago, supporting things like pdf (and opendocument eventually) is not going to cost them customers. It will help them keep them along with the bundling deals they now enjoy with the major PC manufacturers. This is the same as money from the tobacco industry going into stop smoking campaigns, it really isn't going to put big tobacco out of business because people pick up smoking for nonrational reasons and then are ensnared by a powerful addiction. Most large organizations are hooked on Office already, giving them pdf export helps keep many from even thinking about dropping it cold turkey for something like OO.org.
I for one just got tired Windows. As more and more of what I do with my computer is web based and doesn't require Windows, I decided to throw in a new hard drive and install Ubuntu. Now Windows is used for games and a few apps that I need to run from time to time. As alternatives like Linux mature, Microsoft is going to have its hands full keeping customers who want to cut costs and get more out of their computers. Licensing deals that drive customers away are not going to help them in the long run.
Heh heh, that would be a surprise and it would certainly explain some of the delays in releasing FFXII. That game has been practically MIA for quite some time now. If it were to become a PS3 launch title exclusive, it would move some consoles. But how unoriginal that would be. A real surprise would be if Sony announced that they were buying Square-Enix and it would stick it to Microsoft and Nintendo simultaneously by forever making the Japanese RPG giant a Sony company.
The big surprise will be that Sony will provide low interest financing for the purchase of new Playstation 3s and two games! Low low rates, and everyone leaves with a PS3 regardless of income! Bad credit? No problem! No job? Now problem! Everyone plays!
Seriously, I'm expecting that first, the PS3 release date in Japan is going to slip into Fall 2006. Not having playable demos at TGS says to me that there is no way they'll have good solid games ready by Spring. As for their surprise, I'm going with a new version of the popular Eye Toy being part of the basic PS3 bundle and perhaps being touted as an intrinsic part of the PS3 experience.
As others have already posted, the p2p scene is only going to be pushed further underground now. Laws and lawsuits are not going to stop the swapping of copyright protected materials and of course the commercial pirates won't be stopped either. That being said, I think that p2p will disappear from the political landscape because anyone with a high profile service is going to be sued out of existence right away, leaving only the largely invisible underground.
Out of sight is out of mind! *AA will declare victory since there's no point in chasing ghosts (as long as they keep quiet). And the politicians will also declare victory since there is no political hay to be made railing against something that's largely invisible and too technical for ordinary folks to care about. So if everyone is patient, the game will soon be over and those in the know can return to their regularly scheduled filesharing, legal and otherwise.
What I had in mind was using the existing buttons like the remotes you often find in hotel rooms. For this you just need buttons for next and previous channel and more volume and less volume. The D-pad alone is good enough for this. If you want to get fancy without making it too complicated, the remote could have a channel jump feature where if you hold the button down in one direction or the other it would skip through the channels quickly. The key thing is to keep it simple.
Okay okay, it looks like a remote control, but can you actually control the TV with it? Seriously, I think that is a feature that would complete the set. The more I think about it, the better I like this new controller and really want to see the games. So if a person can just pick this up, turn the TV on with it, adjust the volume and channel, turn on the Revolution, and play, that would be perfect! Wow, imagine that people start using this as their primary remote, then they'd always be a click away from playing a game. You know, that's where Nintendo might be going with this. Gaming becomes as casual as using a TV remote.
The real test of any model is what happens to it when pushed to the extremes. In the past, the console hardware has usually been a loss leader. The console manufacturer takes a loss on the hardware but makes it up on the royalties paid to them by game publishers on each copy of a game sold. But what are the limits of this? A large console loss means they have to ask for bigger royalties. Asking for larger royalties will scare off potential 3rd parties which is particularly bad if you are not the market leader. This is made worst by the reputedly much higher development cost associated with the next gen consoles like the 360. Finally, if all of these increased costs are passed on to the consumer, it usually means fewer sales. At some point, the gap simply cannot be filled and the console maker never sees a profit.
Right now, it looks like both Microsoft and Sony are in the same boat. Sony has an advantage being the current market leader. But Sony's manufacturing costs are likely similar to Microsoft's so I would guess that they will want a bigger cut from publishers who may balk at this. The old model seems strained in this bigger is better mode. It seems that Microsoft and Sony are being lured upon the rocks by the now ancient siren's song of the home media convergence device. They are hoping that people will buy their boxes for things other than games, like downloadable movies and online shopping, etc... Honestly, I just don't see this happening. But even that doesn't make any sense if you are selling the hardware at a loss. So maybe Nintendo really is on the right track by focusing on affordability and innovative gameplay that doesn't depend on pushing more and more polygons on the screen.
All I can say is congratulations to BitTorrent! As far as my own use of it is concerned, it's the best thing to come along since FTP, so I'm happy to see Bram and company hitting the big time with some major VC cash (plus $10 of my own, hee hee). Besides, he's got a kid to support, and I know that isn't cheap!
While it will take more than days, I think that Microsoft will eventually come around and support OpenDocument. There's no technical reason that they cannot and Microsoft can't afford to let big customers get away. Once large companies and governments realize that they can get along just fine without Microsoft products, it will be even harder to get them back on the crack, so to speak. So I wouldn't be surprised if there are already betas running in Microsoft somewhere that support OpenDocument and they run on the Microsoft Linux Distro too!
Anyway, in the end, the customer is always right. So Microsoft will come around if OpenDocument gets any kind of real traction.
This could actually be a winning strategy if RIAA decided to jump right in a create a complete Digital Parenting Companion. This package would do it all, detect and remove spyware, "illegal" digital downloads, and porn. It would also include a virus scanner and firewall with an easy to use interface with lots of instructional video clips. They could also package a fun to view DVD with shows aimed and younger kids teaching them the evils of illegal media downloads. Heck, maybe RIAA should buy AOL before Mr. Gates gets his hands on it! A soft sell approach might well pay some big dividends for RIAA as they educate the public and direct them to legal sources of digital media complete with that oh so tasty DRM that everyone's talkin' about!
Cool! I guess you could call this Death Star v0.001. In a couple of millenia we'll be ready to rule the galaxy!!!!!
Now someone explain to me how this helps us now with Iraq, North Korea, Iran, suicide bombers...
Practically speaking I guess this means we should all stay away from questionable (*cough*pr0n*cough*) sites for a few days. Seriously, we all know where these exploits are likely to show up first...
Coming out on Nov 22 is actually pretty good timing. The weekend after Thanksgiving is generally one of the biggest shopping days in the U.S.. So with smart marketing, they should move a fair number of Xbox 360s just on the wave of shopping. The two questions I would have are, what new games will be available, and what current popular Xbox titles will run on it?
If they do well enough, Xbox 360 will be considered the hot item of the holiday season and sell even better. As always though, the games will tell the tale.
Before the tinfoil hatters come out, and blame the ??AA or the Government, think: when was the last time you watched one of those old Star Trek episodes you taped 15 years ago "in case you ever wanted to watch them again"?
Absolutely. I finally decided to reclaim all of the space those old tapes were taking up and started buying DVD boxed sets. As long as TiVo remains easy to use for most people and doesn't become too expensive, most people won't care about DRM. The question is, will the content owners get so greedy that they impose more and more restrictive DRM? That's the deal breaker, and right now I'm not convinced that the media giants are smart enough to realize this. They still seem intent on forcing people to pay everytime you watch a show or play a song. That's the kind of thinking that will make pirates of us all.
Hmmm, just more proof that trying to give new products meaningful names is a pain. Might as well just make stuff up like Yahoo, or Goo...never mind...
Lately Microsoft seems determined to offer multiple versions of their products which on the surface could lead to some market confusion. But in the end, no matter what MS does, they cannot really change how Windows is usually being bought and installed. Windows is not ice cream! Most people are going to get Vista preinstalled on new PCs which means that whatever Dell or HP decides to bundle with their main packages is going to be what people get. Corporations are probably not going to bite on Vista at all. Heck, many corps are still running Windows 2000 because it meets their needs. Vista isn't going to change that.
For all of its warts, once Windows 2000 came out, MS had released an OS that for the most part has proven itself to be good enough. So it's really hard to see how they're going to move Vista copies at all beyond the preload channel, especially if they get crazy with the pricing.
I for one have no plans to upgrade to Vista. I'd love to move away from Windows altogether, but gaming and certain development projects require that I keep it. And I don't really see anything being offered in Vista that would be worth the time and expense to upgrade. Now if upgrades to the Ultimate Edition were $19.95, I might consider it, but that just isn't going to happen now is it?
This initiative is really about saving Windows. People aren't going to buy a new home PC in order to run the latest version of Microsoft Office, but they might if there are games they want and cannot mentally justify buying a games console, afterall a PC can do more than just play games, right? So when Jane buys that PC at Best Buy and a bunch of games (and Quicken of course), Microsoft gets its cut of the action via the copy of Windows that is preinstalled on the new PC.
Granted, PC sales these days don't compare to console sales, but MS needs to keep Windows in play. And if they do a good job with their XNA development platform, they can keep games coming from the PC to the Xbox 360. In a sense, Microsoft really needs to keep the PC out there as a viable game platform to farm new talent and properties. Games are also a strong hedge for them against defections to Macintosh or Linux for most PC users.
A few years ago I got an interview with Microsoft and on the whole it very interesting. They flew me out to Redmond and footed the bill for everything. I didn't get the job, but I did meet some interesting people and on the whole had a good time. Next time ESR, go talk to them first and then refuse. Freebies don't pop up everyday you know! ;)
Ironically, the patching truly is for the sake of the children. After this controversy it all seems pretty apparent that a significant portion of sales of GTA are for/by people under the age of 17. Otherwise it really doesn't make any economic sense to go to the trouble and expense of patching and rereleasing the game, a game that has already sold millions of copies. People old enough to play this game are old enough to order the AO version online or find a retailer who carries it even if WalMart doesn't. Heck, I saw a copy of the old unpatched PS2 version at the Virgin Megastore in Chicago just the other day. So patching it just makes it "safe" for WalMart to carry again and sell to 12 year old Johnny or his mom. Mo money for R* and mo money for the Waltons. Life is good again...
Heh heh, silly rabbit, tricks are for kids! The consumer is not going to bite on $60 games. Look at what happened to DVD movies which were quite expensive initially but now run $20 and less for many titles, even some new releases. The only DVDs that get a premium market are specialty items like Anime, and even those are mercilessly marked down after a few months. We're talking about entertainment here! So unless these next generation games are going to come to my house and blow me, forget about $60. I'll wait for the mark downs or go without.
If they don't follow up with more interesting games then the foot may be planted firmly in the mouth. I bought a PSP a couple of weeks ago and so far I'm pretty happy with it playing Lumines, Wipeout Pure, and tooling around with the web browser, but I really want to see some really interesting stuff before the year is out. What I'd really like to see in the near term is Flash support for the browser which would suddenly make thousands of web games potentially playable on the PSP. I wonder if Sony is actually afraid of that?
In any case, it looks like the UK launch has gone pretty well for Sony. But they'd better not rest because quite honestly, the DS has the better stable of games right now.