They're decades away if you were trying to use the tools available to your average corporate Java business app developer who posts things on Slashdot like "AI is nothing more than a buzzword, it'll blow over any day now".
We're a couple weeks away if you look at the state of the art "AI" deep learning algorithms.
Meanwhile Windows 10 not only allows Linux in the same machine it now let's me run pretty much all of my Linux dev tools in Windows, without emulation, side by side my Windows apps in one windowed shell.
For example, the uber car that thought the woman in the road was blowing trash.
That is not correct. To quote the NTSB investigation:
. As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path. At 1.3 seconds before impact, the self-driving system determined that emergency braking was needed to mitigate a collision. According to Uber emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control to reduce the potential for erratic vehicle behavior.
The self driving system identified the woman as a bicycle 25 meters away. It identified the woman as a "Vehicle" even further prior. But the system just wasn't sure where the object was headed exactly. The error wasn't in identification the error was that the vehicle should have begun to slow down in case the cyclist was high out of their mind or suicidal to be able to stop if they walked into traffic.
This is a really hard problem for humans too. When driving around the city I try to judge not just where they are headed but also their degree of sobriety. If they are 'obviously' a crazy\high person or inattentive I begin slowing and assume they will just wander across 5 lanes of high speed traffic with no regard for their own safety. If they look sober and attentive then I assume they are going to frogger their way across when it's safe. If they are a bike courier I try to just leave it up to them assuming they'll weave in and out and as long as I travel in a straight line at a constant speed they'll figure it out on their own.
Why would you assume the aliens will be any less brutal than the 16th century European explorers?
Because 16th century European Explorers were psychopathic religious nut jobs who had very poor understanding of biology. They were also highly incentivized to take things from the natives and conquer them.
If you can travel across interstellar space you have a pretty good understanding that any species that can create such a beacon is "intelligent" and self aware.
And we honestly have nothing of value for them. They without question would have general AI to do slave labor. And robots are wayyyy better laborers than humans. We're expensive and shit workers. There is no way someone would enslave humans to do labor if they had any better alternative.
We have a lot of liquid water but there are easier ways to get H20 than traveling across interstellar distances.
If you can travel across the universe and create general AI then you can almost assuredly answer the questions of consciousness and free will. Presumably the answers were "there is no free will" so they don't believe in God. If you can create an interstellar civilization then presumably you can you aren't all psychopaths. There is a clear evolution of human thought where as a civilization advances they also become more peaceful, more cooperative, less dogmatic and more open. We also generally become more wealthy and wealth eliminates a lot of pressure for violence of "Eat or be Eaten". Once you can travel the stars you presumably have access to nearly limitless energy which means essentially limitless resources.
Oh sure, until that gamble rolls craps, THEN you are done too.
So what you're saying is that a startup company's efforts might fail? Oh no!/s
I would rather work for a company that is taking risks and maybe failing than work for a bureaucratic snail paced organization who eternally releases also-ran knock off products. If you want to collect a safe steady paycheck maintaining a product which is market proven and has a support contract for the next 40 years to fill out your career, that's a fine career path to choose but that's different from trying to launch a brand new category of product before the competition and define the market.
That can be fine. If I offer you $10B in tax write offs if you spend $100B in the state on businesses but only hire one person to oversee that $100B in spending you aren't paying "$10B per job" since theoretically the $100B in other spending is going into local businesses and they will hire people to handle that.
Also you can offer a $10B subsidy and get 0 jobs if you are a tax shelter and stole the $100B in investment from another locality.
That's the problem with subsidies. It's a prisoner's dilemma where a state can "give away" tax revenue it never would have otherwise gotten. So it's revenue positive except for every other state is doing the same thing and screwing over everyone else.
It's already been done before so no real innovation and just needs the right mix of cost cutting.
Probably part of the reason SpaceX is moving into the "Never been done before" category right now. Falcon 9 is a really well executed inexpensive rocket from the 1970s. BFR will cost the Chinese a fortune to copy if even SpaceX can deliver.
Yeah Electron (which by the way also failed to reach orbit on their first attempt like nearly everybody else) I don't think physically *could* be scaled up.
Falcon 1 to Falcon 9 was a straightforward roadmap. There is no way to take Electron's defining feature and scale up without massive inefficiency. You won't be fueling a Merlin class fuel pump with an electric motor anytime soon.
Many magazines are no better. I once wrote a review for a magazine. It was all organized by the product's PR company. I thought that was sketchy. Especially since I consulted for the company that I was reviewing.
I was sure to disclose this to the Magazine's editor. "Hey, just so you know, the person that the PR company found to write a review of their product for you collects a paycheck from said company as well." The editor laughed and said it was fine. I drew the line in the sand at the point where the PR rep offered to write it for me based on my outline.
Most magazines are pretty much just a PR company ghost writing content.
The lead vehicle can be a mine proof MRAP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MRAP). Comfortably seat your squishy fragile humans and then follow along behind a convoy of retrofitted Semi trucks. It's a lot easier to retrofit a semi tractor for semi-autonomy than bomb-proof it. And you need fewer drivers.
Throwing a grenade sized object at a military convoy just to steal some supplies is a pretty poor risk/reward ratio. (Not to mention, good luck hitting all of the cameras with wet mud while it's driving).
And even if you succeed it is still better than you killing a soldier. Supplies are essential, but they're aren't *that* essential.
Probably because of how much slower x86 emulation runs. They still want to pressure developers to recompile their apps for ARM to run optimally.
Considering Microsoft ported Win32 to ARM to make arm recompiles relatively painless the most obvious reason to run x86 emulation is just for old unsupported software.
In practice even Adobe isn't recompiling Photoshop even though they have a running ARM build for ipad which requires far more code refactoring than Windows on ARM.
How may 'incidents' in recent days have been kept out of the headlines?
'Incidents' is the right word for this story. The Camry refused to properly yield and then crashed itself. That's just another Tuesday with humans driving. If anything it demonstrates the need to get that driver off the road and into an autonomous vehicle which doesn't emotionally refuse to submit to the right of way of someone other than themselves.
The only thing I can think of is that you could allow an application "registry access" when you're looking at the requested permissions.
So like a phone says "This application wants access to your GPS location" you might be willing to grant it GPS location but not microphone data. So you could grant a user registry access thinking that it's a one time limited permission of the installer to modify the registry but instead you end up with an application creating an admin level account.
Then again... a keylogger would be way easier to install in the BG.
No, we were more than happy to look forward to Oculus 2.0 and HoloLens 2.0.
But Magic Leap said "we've created this lightfield display that's like nothing you've ever seen!"
And then launched HoloLens v1.1 that we've had for years already. The Segway did the same thing. "This is going to revolutionize transportation. You'll all own a segway in a few years! Hilariously 10 years later electric scooters are insanely popular but only the cheapest most simple implementation imaginable.
"Alexa gets her information from a variety of trusted sources such as IMDb, Accuweather, Yelp, Answers.com, Wikipedia and many others." Nor did it pay those who did:
Or the algorithm is just mirroring existing bias in society.
If you randomly search black men 10x more often than white men you'll end up with 10x more convictions just through the law of averages. Then the data states that "10x as many black men are carrying drugs" per capita since it ignores the all important data of how many searches were performed.
If you interview 1,000 women but only 100 are hired vs 1,000 men and 500 are hired your algorithm will try to mirror those ratios.
Considering that the average hard drive failure failure rate in a given month is around 0.4% that does make 0.01% pretty low. And if you actually lost data you should take this as a wakeup call that you only possibly lost the data and could undelete it as opposed to a hard drive failure which is 40x more likely and almost certainly will be impossible to recover the data from.
It's not like hard drive space is costly these days
Considering how many people are on SSDs, especially over priced Laptop SSDs, these days hard drive space is probably more expensive than it's been in decades.
Thank you for reiterating that they were in second place. Just like the iPhone is in second place for smartphones sold to Android. So clearly it's a colossal failure like the Xbox.:eye roll:
Playstation 3 sold 86 million 360 sold 85 million Wow, another Spectacular failure, narrowly missing last place...
What needs to happen is phone companies need to start policing who they are willing to connect to. If you are AT&T and 90% of your spam calls are coming from XYZTelco's switches then you tell them that they have 30 days to eliminate spam or they will no longer be connected. XYZTelco isn't actually responsible but they will look at the list and tell the switches they connect to "You have 30 days or we'll disconnect you." Rinse and repeat and I guarantee you that the 2nd and 3rd level providers will find a way to ensure their services aren't used for spam real quick when they risk their entire existence being cut-off from access to US major telecoms like AT&T and Verizon.
Our phone system is at a fundamental risk of collapse in the next 12 months. If Spam isn't stopped people are going to kill their phone lines entirely. 90% of calls to our office now are spam.
avoided coming in last place due to Nintendo dumping the GameCube a few months earlier.
Or rephrased by someone other than a 12 year old fanboy troll. "Just barely avoided coming in third place due to Nintendo dumping the GameCube a few months earlier".
When there are really only 3 competitors "Last" is relative. The question is "Did they make money?" If the answer is yes it wasn't a "marketplace failure". iPhone by your metric "barely has avoided last place" thanks to Windows Phone being released.
I had the bunny massacre one year. It was awful. A whole family of baby rabbits was hiding in the grass and I didn't know until I heard Thwump Thwump Thwump. I still feel awful.
I'm not sure either how *robotic* lawn mowers are particularly susceptible to this.
Slashdot Mirror
They're decades away if you were trying to use the tools available to your average corporate Java business app developer who posts things on Slashdot like "AI is nothing more than a buzzword, it'll blow over any day now".
We're a couple weeks away if you look at the state of the art "AI" deep learning algorithms.
Meanwhile Windows 10 not only allows Linux in the same machine it now let's me run pretty much all of my Linux dev tools in Windows, without emulation, side by side my Windows apps in one windowed shell.
For example, the uber car that thought the woman in the road was blowing trash.
That is not correct. To quote the NTSB investigation:
. As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path. At 1.3 seconds before impact, the self-driving system determined that emergency braking was needed to mitigate a collision. According to Uber emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control to reduce the potential for erratic vehicle behavior.
The self driving system identified the woman as a bicycle 25 meters away. It identified the woman as a "Vehicle" even further prior. But the system just wasn't sure where the object was headed exactly. The error wasn't in identification the error was that the vehicle should have begun to slow down in case the cyclist was high out of their mind or suicidal to be able to stop if they walked into traffic.
This is a really hard problem for humans too. When driving around the city I try to judge not just where they are headed but also their degree of sobriety. If they are 'obviously' a crazy\high person or inattentive I begin slowing and assume they will just wander across 5 lanes of high speed traffic with no regard for their own safety. If they look sober and attentive then I assume they are going to frogger their way across when it's safe. If they are a bike courier I try to just leave it up to them assuming they'll weave in and out and as long as I travel in a straight line at a constant speed they'll figure it out on their own.
Why would you assume the aliens will be any less brutal than the 16th century European explorers?
Because 16th century European Explorers were psychopathic religious nut jobs who had very poor understanding of biology. They were also highly incentivized to take things from the natives and conquer them.
If you can travel across interstellar space you have a pretty good understanding that any species that can create such a beacon is "intelligent" and self aware.
And we honestly have nothing of value for them. They without question would have general AI to do slave labor. And robots are wayyyy better laborers than humans. We're expensive and shit workers. There is no way someone would enslave humans to do labor if they had any better alternative.
We have a lot of liquid water but there are easier ways to get H20 than traveling across interstellar distances.
If you can travel across the universe and create general AI then you can almost assuredly answer the questions of consciousness and free will. Presumably the answers were "there is no free will" so they don't believe in God. If you can create an interstellar civilization then presumably you can you aren't all psychopaths. There is a clear evolution of human thought where as a civilization advances they also become more peaceful, more cooperative, less dogmatic and more open. We also generally become more wealthy and wealth eliminates a lot of pressure for violence of "Eat or be Eaten". Once you can travel the stars you presumably have access to nearly limitless energy which means essentially limitless resources.
Oh sure, until that gamble rolls craps, THEN you are done too.
So what you're saying is that a startup company's efforts might fail? Oh no! /s
I would rather work for a company that is taking risks and maybe failing than work for a bureaucratic snail paced organization who eternally releases also-ran knock off products. If you want to collect a safe steady paycheck maintaining a product which is market proven and has a support contract for the next 40 years to fill out your career, that's a fine career path to choose but that's different from trying to launch a brand new category of product before the competition and define the market.
That can be fine. If I offer you $10B in tax write offs if you spend $100B in the state on businesses but only hire one person to oversee that $100B in spending you aren't paying "$10B per job" since theoretically the $100B in other spending is going into local businesses and they will hire people to handle that.
Also you can offer a $10B subsidy and get 0 jobs if you are a tax shelter and stole the $100B in investment from another locality.
That's the problem with subsidies. It's a prisoner's dilemma where a state can "give away" tax revenue it never would have otherwise gotten. So it's revenue positive except for every other state is doing the same thing and screwing over everyone else.
It's already been done before so no real innovation and just needs the right mix of cost cutting.
Probably part of the reason SpaceX is moving into the "Never been done before" category right now. Falcon 9 is a really well executed inexpensive rocket from the 1970s. BFR will cost the Chinese a fortune to copy if even SpaceX can deliver.
Yeah Electron (which by the way also failed to reach orbit on their first attempt like nearly everybody else) I don't think physically *could* be scaled up.
Falcon 1 to Falcon 9 was a straightforward roadmap. There is no way to take Electron's defining feature and scale up without massive inefficiency. You won't be fueling a Merlin class fuel pump with an electric motor anytime soon.
Many magazines are no better. I once wrote a review for a magazine. It was all organized by the product's PR company. I thought that was sketchy. Especially since I consulted for the company that I was reviewing.
I was sure to disclose this to the Magazine's editor. "Hey, just so you know, the person that the PR company found to write a review of their product for you collects a paycheck from said company as well." The editor laughed and said it was fine. I drew the line in the sand at the point where the PR rep offered to write it for me based on my outline.
Most magazines are pretty much just a PR company ghost writing content.
does all they can to prevent updates,
And then are shocked. SHOCKED! when the update they've put off for 6 months eventually installs itself.
Or they could just schedule it for a time that isn't during a presentation.
Cost savings.
The lead vehicle can be a mine proof MRAP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MRAP). Comfortably seat your squishy fragile humans and then follow along behind a convoy of retrofitted Semi trucks. It's a lot easier to retrofit a semi tractor for semi-autonomy than bomb-proof it. And you need fewer drivers.
Throwing a grenade sized object at a military convoy just to steal some supplies is a pretty poor risk/reward ratio. (Not to mention, good luck hitting all of the cameras with wet mud while it's driving).
And even if you succeed it is still better than you killing a soldier. Supplies are essential, but they're aren't *that* essential.
Probably because of how much slower x86 emulation runs. They still want to pressure developers to recompile their apps for ARM to run optimally.
Considering Microsoft ported Win32 to ARM to make arm recompiles relatively painless the most obvious reason to run x86 emulation is just for old unsupported software.
In practice even Adobe isn't recompiling Photoshop even though they have a running ARM build for ipad which requires far more code refactoring than Windows on ARM.
How may 'incidents' in recent days have been kept out of the headlines?
'Incidents' is the right word for this story. The Camry refused to properly yield and then crashed itself. That's just another Tuesday with humans driving. If anything it demonstrates the need to get that driver off the road and into an autonomous vehicle which doesn't emotionally refuse to submit to the right of way of someone other than themselves.
The only thing I can think of is that you could allow an application "registry access" when you're looking at the requested permissions.
So like a phone says "This application wants access to your GPS location" you might be willing to grant it GPS location but not microphone data. So you could grant a user registry access thinking that it's a one time limited permission of the installer to modify the registry but instead you end up with an application creating an admin level account.
Then again... a keylogger would be way easier to install in the BG.
No, we were more than happy to look forward to Oculus 2.0 and HoloLens 2.0.
But Magic Leap said "we've created this lightfield display that's like nothing you've ever seen!"
And then launched HoloLens v1.1 that we've had for years already. The Segway did the same thing. "This is going to revolutionize transportation. You'll all own a segway in a few years! Hilariously 10 years later electric scooters are insanely popular but only the cheapest most simple implementation imaginable.
Also we're blaming them for
"Alexa gets her information from a variety of trusted sources such as IMDb, Accuweather, Yelp, Answers.com, Wikipedia and many others." Nor did it pay those who did:
Amazon owns imdb !
Or the algorithm is just mirroring existing bias in society.
If you randomly search black men 10x more often than white men you'll end up with 10x more convictions just through the law of averages. Then the data states that "10x as many black men are carrying drugs" per capita since it ignores the all important data of how many searches were performed.
If you interview 1,000 women but only 100 are hired vs 1,000 men and 500 are hired your algorithm will try to mirror those ratios.
Considering that the average hard drive failure failure rate in a given month is around 0.4% that does make 0.01% pretty low. And if you actually lost data you should take this as a wakeup call that you only possibly lost the data and could undelete it as opposed to a hard drive failure which is 40x more likely and almost certainly will be impossible to recover the data from.
It's not like hard drive space is costly these days
Considering how many people are on SSDs, especially over priced Laptop SSDs, these days hard drive space is probably more expensive than it's been in decades.
Thank you for reiterating that they were in second place. Just like the iPhone is in second place for smartphones sold to Android. So clearly it's a colossal failure like the Xbox. :eye roll:
Playstation 3 sold 86 million
360 sold 85 million
Wow, another Spectacular failure, narrowly missing last place...
What needs to happen is phone companies need to start policing who they are willing to connect to. If you are AT&T and 90% of your spam calls are coming from XYZTelco's switches then you tell them that they have 30 days to eliminate spam or they will no longer be connected. XYZTelco isn't actually responsible but they will look at the list and tell the switches they connect to "You have 30 days or we'll disconnect you." Rinse and repeat and I guarantee you that the 2nd and 3rd level providers will find a way to ensure their services aren't used for spam real quick when they risk their entire existence being cut-off from access to US major telecoms like AT&T and Verizon.
Our phone system is at a fundamental risk of collapse in the next 12 months. If Spam isn't stopped people are going to kill their phone lines entirely. 90% of calls to our office now are spam.
avoided coming in last place due to Nintendo dumping the GameCube a few months earlier.
Or rephrased by someone other than a 12 year old fanboy troll. "Just barely avoided coming in third place due to Nintendo dumping the GameCube a few months earlier".
When there are really only 3 competitors "Last" is relative. The question is "Did they make money?" If the answer is yes it wasn't a "marketplace failure". iPhone by your metric "barely has avoided last place" thanks to Windows Phone being released.
"You don't have to outrun the bear, just the other guy."
I had the bunny massacre one year. It was awful. A whole family of baby rabbits was hiding in the grass and I didn't know until I heard Thwump Thwump Thwump. I still feel awful.
I'm not sure either how *robotic* lawn mowers are particularly susceptible to this.
How dare Hawaiians file in Hawaii! Don't they know how inconvenient it is to fight a case in their state? /s