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Mono is still dead, just as I predicted in 2006 and re-iterated in 2009.

http://realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=he_s_still_dead_jim

Dead.
DOA.

I posted my first Meme Graph and reference here on Slashdot back in 2006.
What comes next?
We go from measurement to manipulation.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=meme_theory

Diffraction is my term for measuring how well a new meme captures more bandwdith. In a Quality-Of-Service network, bandwidth always has contention and grabbing more bandwidth is difficult. If you understand how to grab bandwidth through meme patterns, you can propagate your information ahead of others.

Flex versus Silverlight meme from three months ago, although I first ran this graph one year ago for a client deciding on technology direction...

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=flex_vs_silverlight

Rate-of-growth for Flex and Silverlight is almost the same and Flex maintains a comfortable lead.

"a government gone feral"

I argue that it's an inevitable outcome of ecological diversification of information and the Internet. It's not just occurring in the United States. The internet is "speciating", evolving differentiation in order to limit infectious memes.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=global_differentiation

Is our government nuts?
Well, yes.
But that's a separate issue.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=ipv6_revisited

It makes no matter to me but it looks like IPv6 is finally taking off. I wouldn't bet against it.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=ipv6_revisited

I posted this a few months ago. IPv6 is finally broken out of its false trend lines of the past few years so it looks like it's finally moving towards a mainstream technology.

As I noted five weeks ago, the IPv6 meme shows significant change almost one year ago. There's substantially greater chatter about IPv6 and the rate of change is up.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=ipv6_revisited

You guys are finally catching up to me.

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/theory101/index.jsp

Here's the mechanism for Naomi Klein's "Shock Doctrine"....

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/theory101/diffraction.jsp

You can determine patient zero entry points, periods of susceptibility, etc, through simple keyword counts and some semantic analysis.

You guys are finally catching up to me.

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/theory101/index.jsp

Here's the mechanism for Naomi Klein's "Shock Doctrine"....

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/theory101/diffraction.jsp

You can determine patient zero entry points, periods of susceptibility, etc, through simple keyword counts and some semantic analysis.

I originally redicted Mono's demise in Dec, 2005 (reconfirmed in Jan, 2006), well before Neil McAllister and received quite a bit of jeering and obnoxious commentary -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=mono_meme_update_mono_still

However, as we all know now, it has indeed been dead for the past 2 1/2 years and it will stay dead. Check out the relative trend strength for Mono versus Silverlight or Ruby.

http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q=linux+mono,+silverlight,+ruby&l=

He's still dead, Jim.

Keyword graphs show the story...

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=zune_meme_rerun

Microsoft entered a market nearing its growth inflection point with a marginal product. They thought they could win through hype and Microsoft branding.

Microsoft Vista is failing for similar reasons.

There's good evidence that the rate of Internet growth has peaked and is now declining. There were several signs about eighteen months ago when I made this prediction...

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=internet_state_change

Netcraft rate of change in host growth could be a good proxy for overall growth, too...

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=internet_inflection_point_microsoft

I say the Internet inflected in Winter of 2007 and the after-effects are just now showing up in employment and revenue figures. Marginal companies will have increasing difficulty in making money, which is possibly why the newpapers are finally starting to fail en mass.

There's good evidence that the rate of Internet growth has peaked and is now declining. There were several signs about eighteen months ago when I made this prediction...

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=internet_state_change

Netcraft rate of change in host growth could be a good proxy for overall growth, too...

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=internet_inflection_point_microsoft

I say the Internet inflected in Winter of 2007 and the after-effects are just now showing up in employment and revenue figures. Marginal companies will have increasing difficulty in making money, which is possibly why the newpapers are finally starting to fail en mass.

The Internet has entered a long-term inflection point.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=internet_inflection_point_microsoft

Network traffic for many major sites began shrinking or slowing in growth 1-2 years ago.
The negative growth in e-commerce sales was not an anomaly.

China, Australia and now Italy are moving towards Internet censorship. In 2006, at Defcon 14, I predicted that the Internet would move towards greater memetic differentiation to prevent widescale manipulation, that is, the ability to influence audiences would be dialed down to smaller and more local groups.

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/about/Defcon14.ppt

I wasn't sure of how it would happen, the mechanism which would start up but I know think "national security" is it.
Here's an experiment I conducted last month along with a brief commentary.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=gaming_calculatedrisk2

After execution, I was surprised at how many foreign government hits I got, many of them associated with national security. I wouldn't underestimate what's happening. There are serious economic and cultural forces at work and self-preservation is involved.

China, Australia and now Italy are moving towards Internet censorship. In 2006, at Defcon 14, I predicted that the Internet would move towards greater memetic differentiation to prevent widescale manipulation, that is, the ability to influence audiences would be dialed down to smaller and more local groups.

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/about/Defcon14.ppt

I wasn't sure of how it would happen, the mechanism which would start up but I know think "national security" is it.
Here's an experiment I conducted last month along with a brief commentary.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=gaming_calculatedrisk2

After execution, I was surprised at how many foreign government hits I got, many of them associated with national security. I wouldn't underestimate what's happening. There are serious economic and cultural forces at work and self-preservation is involved.

I posted models of it almost three years ago.

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/dailymeme/2005/Aug/coughcoldDejanews.png

Web searches are co-incidental indicators.

Want to see something that Google hasn't shown you?

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=sars_versus_avian_flu_meme

It's quite likely that the Internet retains knowledge and alters its behavior over time. Compare the group reaction time between the SARS and avian flu viruses.

I posted models of it almost three years ago.

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/dailymeme/2005/Aug/coughcoldDejanews.png

Web searches are co-incidental indicators.

Want to see something that Google hasn't shown you?

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=sars_versus_avian_flu_meme

It's quite likely that the Internet retains knowledge and alters its behavior over time. Compare the group reaction time between the SARS and avian flu viruses.

From earlier this year, in response to the "Wikipedia Falling Apart" rumors ...

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=wikipedia_meme

Wikipedia probably entered its growth inflection point in early 2006.
The current turmoil is due to a state change towards a declining rate of growth.

Currently, Facebook possesses an *unknown* tactical advantage in opposition to Google's *unknown* willingness to commit strategic resources and influence. But once Facebook's advantage is quantifiable, I suspect that Google will guesstimate and commit enough resources to win the battle. The odds are good that Facebook's growth rate of change will hit an inflection point in the next few months. These user complaints are a direct result of Facebook trying to push a tactical advantage for strategic gain.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=social_networking_meme

Once Facebook hits an inflection point, its scope of influence is bounded, i.e. predictable.

Facebook needs to change the game to increase their chances of winning. At this point, I give them a 50/50 chance. There's power in coalitions (see IBM's strategy with Eclipse, Sun's strategy with Java & JCP).

If I owned Facebook, I'd redo the Facebook API by combining some of the ideas of OpenSocial, then build a coalition along the lines of the Java Community Process to manage it, abdicating 49% of the power and responsibility to other companies. If Facebook does that now, they can leverage their current development community and possibly force Google's hand. If they wait, the true extent of their power will eventually be revealed and challenged.

Currently, Facebook possesses an *unknown* tactical advantage in opposition to Google's *unknown* willingness to commit strategic resources and influence. But once Facebook's advantage is quantifiable, I suspect that Google will guesstimate and commit enough resources to win the battle. The odds are good that Facebook's growth rate of change will hit an inflection point in the next few months. These user complaints are a direct result of Facebook trying to push a tactical advantage for strategic gain.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=social_networking_meme

Once Facebook hits an inflection point, its scope of influence is bounded, i.e. predictable.

Facebook needs to change the game to increase their chances of winning.
At this point, I give them a 50/50 chance.
There's power in coalitions (see IBM's strategy with Eclipse, Sun's strategy with Java & JCP).

If I owned Facebook, I'd redo the Facebook API by combining some of the ideas of OpenSocial, then build a coalition along the lines of the Java Community Process to manage it, abdicating 49% of the power and responsibility to other companies. If Facebook does that now, they can leverage their current development community and possibly force Google's hand. If they wait, the true extent of their power will eventually be revealed and challenged.

This was predictable based on strategic considerations of the cost of information versus the cost of privacy. I predicted it almost two years ago.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=cost_of_information_versus_cost

"As the cost of information falls, it becomes increasingly harder to control who knows what. The foundation of successful conspiracies is the control of critical information by small, selected groups of individuals.... an increasingly difficult strategy in an era of cheap, easy access to information."

Social networking is peaking in growth, ergo it's entering a consolidation phase. Google's OpenSocial APi release is a brilliant counter-strategy (for once). FaceBook's API was a good gamble into a peaking market but I think Google has outdone them.

My prediction on FaceBook's growth rate BEFORE the Google OpenSocial API release.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=social_networking_meme

The "War On the Unexpected" is a natural consequence of a society that's differentiating in all directions. It's an economic consequence. It's not just national security, the job market has the same effect. We're well into a period of risk adversity.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=the_cultural_diffusion_resurrected

I posted this in Sept, 2006, although I floated the concept a year before at Defcon, and originally when I was an instructor at ITT in 1997.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=evolution_of_the_it_market

"The IT Market can be considered, in gestalt, as being an S-curve market with the year 2000-2001 ( the Dot Com Crash ) as its inflection point...

"But in the post-Crash world, profit margins on mass-produced products have fallen. Niche markets with high profit margins are sought after, but many companies still upgrade legacy products for decreasing profit margins (Oracle, Microsoft come to mind). The IT market is still in a slow-motion shakeout period, but I suspect that few IT workers believe it"

I've posted this before and I suppose few people believe it but rate of growth in the social networking sites has TOPPED OUT. Growth is declining. Once a product passes through its growth inflection point, its potential changes from "infinite" to "bounded".

The boundaries for $$$ in social networking have been roughly established over the past 18 months. Maybe somebody at Microsoft actually has MBA knowledge, did the numbers and figured this out instead buying into hype.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=social_networking_meme_verified

Of course, what do I know? I'm just an old guy that doesn't bother memorizing java syntax anymore.

The growth rate of the Wikipedia Meme peaked out 18 months ago. I sincerely doubt that it was due to its lack of credibility but simply a manifestation of peak in general Internet growth. The inflection points in growth for several trends (social networking, craiglist, wikipedia, etc) are almost concurrent, indicating that rate of growth of the user-based Internet peaked in 2006.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=wikipedia_meme

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=internet_state_change

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=internet_state_change_part_ii

The growth rate of the Wikipedia Meme peaked out 18 months ago. I sincerely doubt that it was due to its lack of credibility but simply a manifestation of peak in general Internet growth. The inflection points in growth for several trends (social networking, craiglist, wikipedia, etc) are almost concurrent, indicating that rate of growth of the user-based Internet peaked in 2006.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=wikipedia_meme

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=internet_state_change

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=internet_state_change_part_ii

The growth rate of the Wikipedia Meme peaked out 18 months ago. I sincerely doubt that it was due to its lack of credibility but simply a manifestation of peak in general Internet growth. The inflection points in growth for several trends (social networking, craiglist, wikipedia, etc) are almost concurrent, indicating that rate of growth of the user-based Internet peaked in 2006.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=wikipedia_meme

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=internet_state_change

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=internet_state_change_part_ii

Real-life example of click fraud detected through a moderately unusual method -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/Weblog?catname=%2FClickFraud

The rate of growth for most of the social networking sites peaked in late 2006, almost a year ago. The referenced article is a reverberation of the inflection point.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=social_networking_meme_verified

I predicted MySpace's peak in growth early in 2006, almost coincident to when it occurred. The introduction of Facebook's third party API is a sign of an industry entering a consolidated and standardization phase.

I extrapolated problems at IBM based on mythical man-month methodology and my personal experience with IBM's Business partners during the past three years. I'm surprised that I hit so close to the mark. My extrapolations from two months ago -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=crosscutting_information_domains

"Now let's examine IBM and IBM's Businss Partner strategies. IBM Tool Certifications play a *major* role in IBM's project assignments to Business Partners. In other words, the strategy is moving in the opposite direction from what needs to happen if we want higher success rates for increasingly complex projects.

A larger slice of that finite worker domain knowledge is focused on vocational abilities, not on business knowledge. And it appears that IBM has shifted their own internal strategies towards increasingly specialized workers, so that more workers are involved on a given project, but for less time and work.

That's just can't work right over an increasing scale of complexity and project size, since it multiplies communcation costs at an exponential rate."

IBM appears to be winning because they did the appserver better than Weblogic. This graph is a little old but still relevant -

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/miner/java/AppServers Dejanews.png

I've been a Websphere bigot for the past seven years but cost issues moved me into the JBoss space this year and I've got to say...

I can see serious issues with IBM's profit margins in the near future.

As predicted in October, 2006, based on keyword rate-of-change, Zune is a flop.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=zune_meme_rerun

I believe the Microsoft attempted a viral marketing / meme manipulation scheme over the Internet, but I can't prove it. It's getting harder and harder to "advertise", partly because of the flood of information from the IT age, partly due to increasing resistence to memetic propagation.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=zune_meme_successful_prediction_so

As predicted in October, 2006, based on keyword rate-of-change, Zune is a flop.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=zune_meme_rerun

I believe the Microsoft attempted a viral marketing / meme manipulation scheme over the Internet, but I can't prove it. It's getting harder and harder to "advertise", partly because of the flood of information from the IT age, partly due to increasing resistence to memetic propagation.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=zune_meme_successful_prediction_so

I told y'all that Mono was dead over a year ago.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =mono_meme_update_mono_still

Yup.
"He's still dead, Jim."

I told you Mono was over a year ago!

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =mono_meme_update_mono_still

Yup.
He's still dead, Jim.

Wikipedia's problems, like Yahoo's, were predictable in that their growth rate has passed through an inflection point and is slowing...

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =wikipedia_meme

In fact, it's quite possible that we've reached a general inflection point in the IT market. Check out the search engine growth rate...

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=search_engine_comparison

Wikipedia's problems, like Yahoo's, were predictable in that their growth rate has passed through an inflection point and is slowing...

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =wikipedia_meme

In fact, it's quite possible that we've reached a general inflection point in the IT market. Check out the search engine growth rate...

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=search_engine_comparison

It's quite likely that Wikipedia passed through its growth inflection point in 2006. Here's the graphs. Nielson's blogpulse still shows growth, but it's a shorter term measure and may be more indicative of the current controversy than long-term growth rate.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =wikipedia_meme

Remember, the inflection point is the point of maximum growth, maximum exposure and often maximum hysteria.

My (admittedly dicey) prediction from eight months ago, that Blu-Ray would become the clear standard within one year, based on keyword analysis Dejanews.com -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=blu_ray_vs_hd_dvd

I wrote this last month. It's nice to see the topic on Slashdot. America has become a culture of deception but most Americans trick themselves into not believing their own lack of integrity. That's why the USA is running $1 trillion trade deficits and $1 trillion federal deficits. There's absolutely NO intention of honoring debts.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =state_of_affairs

I just quit participating. I sold my house, I paid off everything, I sit at my parent's house and play pool now. With twenty years of solid IT experience, I should have a real position, but it's all about paranoia and politics, lying to companies, lying to women. Nobody wants honesty.

So I'll sit here and play pool and take it easy.

The 40% figure is close to my own experience since the Dotcom Crash. I don't classify it as "lying", though, but as "deceit". And I've learned to be far more critical in evaluating new job positions. My latest experiences in December -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =dicey_projects

"The stats at www.w3schools.com are not representative of what most people are using, they represent what Web developers and other technically inclined people are using. Think about who visits www.w3schools.com."

So post stats from somewhere else. At least I left a reference, as opposed to the parent which didn't leave a reference.

And here's a question, how many bots ID themselves as IE?

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =the_traffic_generator

--
BMO

Yahoo's traffic has been dropping steadily for almost two years now There's a finite amount of attention span out there.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =search_engine_comparison

Yes, it's another bubble which can ultimately be traced back to fiat money even if Google's stock can't see that its growth inflection point has passed and competition (such as specialized, differentiated engines) is growing. I've been testing out http://www.hakia.com/ and it is occasionally closer to what I'm searching for than Google.

MySpace meme has peaked -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=myspace_meme_successful_prediction_update

Social Networking meme has peaked -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=social_networking_meme_verified

Search Engine meme has peaked -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =search_engine_comparison

Information has a finite value.
It may not be measurable, but it is finite.

Yes, it's another bubble which can ultimately be traced back to fiat money even if Google's stock can't see that its growth inflection point has passed and competition (such as specialized, differentiated engines) is growing. I've been testing out http://www.hakia.com/ and it is occasionally closer to what I'm searching for than Google.

MySpace meme has peaked -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=myspace_meme_successful_prediction_update

Social Networking meme has peaked -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=social_networking_meme_verified

Search Engine meme has peaked -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =search_engine_comparison

Information has a finite value.
It may not be measurable, but it is finite.

Yes, it's another bubble which can ultimately be traced back to fiat money even if Google's stock can't see that its growth inflection point has passed and competition (such as specialized, differentiated engines) is growing. I've been testing out http://www.hakia.com/ and it is occasionally closer to what I'm searching for than Google.

MySpace meme has peaked -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=myspace_meme_successful_prediction_update

Social Networking meme has peaked -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=social_networking_meme_verified

Search Engine meme has peaked -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =search_engine_comparison

Information has a finite value.
It may not be measurable, but it is finite.

Delphi's demise was quite predictable with simple datamining techniques.

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/miner/technology/delp hiDejanews.png

I was the subject of a great deal of hostility from the Delphi community when I posted this prediction back in 1999. I loved Delphi, it was the best tool I've ever used but you'd think that "rational engineers" could distinguish between personal feelings and market forces.

There was clearly demand for a cross-platform version but Borland waited too long and java ate the window of opportunity.

A series of entries, logs & graphics about how I detected suspicious network traffic. I'm hoping to expand it into a Defcon 15 submission on click fraud.

http://www.realmeme.com/click