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Putting The Fiber Glut In Historical Perspective

securitas writes: "This editorial over at the New York Times makes a good case for the optical network buildout being an essential infrastructure project like the railroads, telegraph lines and interstate highways were of previous generations. These projects stimulated new inventions and applications and helped build a great nation. So if you lost a ton on JDS Uniphase, Ciena, Corning, Nortel and the rest, rest easy that you have helped build the future and inspire innovation."

31 of 95 comments (clear)

  1. porn :o) by mgebbers · · Score: 5, Funny

    rest easy that you have helped build the future and inspire innovation. 'in the porn industry' got cut off :o(

  2. Without NYT Registration by dazed-n-confused · · Score: 5, Informative

    As always, the archives have the story without requiring NYT registration and login.

    Q: could Slashcode be modified to transpose these URLs automatically?

  3. Broadband infrastucture will run TV by Max+Romantschuk · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Late last month Digital TV was launched in Finland. Billions of Finnish Marks had been spent on building a next-generation TV network for digital TV.

    Now it seems this standard is already on it's way out, and to top it all off, the consumer products needed to actually watch digital TV aren't really available yet...

    Just imagine how much better off we could have been if all that money had been spent on a broadband infrastructure for transporting any data, including TV. ARGH.

    --
    .: Max Romantschuk :: http://max.romantschuk.fi/
    1. Re:Broadband infrastucture will run TV by Rogerborg · · Score: 3, Informative
      • Late last month Digital TV was launched in Finland [...] , the consumer products needed to actually watch digital TV aren't really available yet

      Similar in the UK. The gubmint claims that it's a top priority to make the UK a world leader in broadband access, then does... nothing. No tax breaks, no investment, no intervention, nothing. "The regulator will decide. We have complete faith in their judgement." So, we ask the regulator what they're doing, and the answer if (of course): "The market will decide. We're reactive, not proactive. That's gubmint policy!"

      So, the incumbent monopoly decides that the market is just fine the way it is and staggers blindly on, screwing up DSL, blocking local loop unbundling, and basically making the whole thing more trouble than it's worth for both competitors and Joe Public. At last count, the entire UK has less than 100 local loop lines unbundled from the incumbent monopoly, and potential competitors are just shrugging their shoulders and walking away from the whole deal.

      The cable companies have indeed crippled themselves to put in a competing network (competing with the huge, taxpayer funded one that the monopoly telco was gifted when it was privatised). They then piss away yet more money undercutting the telco monopoly for broadband access, all the while putting on the happy face and relying on the (non-existent, IMHO) holy grail of selling content on the back of broadband, rather than charging realistic, sustainable amount for access and letting us find and create our own content. Idiots. They rightly deserve to get reamed, I'm just glad to be hitching a ride as they go down in flames.

      The digital TV companies provided a profitable service that people actually want (channels! more! more!) but are now tacking on proprietary interactive services (read: shopping), crippled walled garden web browsing (read: shopping) and L4M3-0-W1Z email on top, producing a sort of clunky circa 1992 experience. Takeup has been (their words) "disappointing". No shit, Sherlock.

      Meanwhile, the real tax payer money goes (via the license funded BBC) towards... widescreen. Not to broadband, or interactive digital services, but to producing 16/9 widescreen content. Apparently this is what we want. Not better quality content, just wiiiiiiiiiider content.

      All this time, the gubmint keeps on with the "all is well" message, claiming that they are on target to get all government services online by 2005. When pressed, they admit that "online" covers non-written access, including the web, but also including... the telephone.

      Yes, switched on &ltstrike>broadband&lt/strike> widescreen UK is bravely dragging itself into the 20th century. Yay us!

      --
      If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
    2. Re:Broadband infrastucture will run TV by stripes · · Score: 3, Informative
      Just imagine how much better off we could have been if all that money had been spent on a broadband infrastructure for transporting any data, including TV.

      Maybe, but a network built for TV can take a lot of short cuts that a generic data network can't. So a TV style network will be a lot less expensive then a generic data network (and also less useful).

      The TV network can assume that there are a small number of transmitters, and a large number of listeners, and that the listeners don't need to ACK traffic. So something like a T3 (about 45Mbits/sec) could transmit about 30 channels (assuming 1.5Mbit/sec of MPEG2 data) to any number of listeners. You can set up the network as a tree and get full use of the bandwidth from the head end out to the listeners with very very little back channel (for ordering Pay Per View, or you can do that fully out of band).

      A generic data network wouldn't be able to assume a single source point for all the traffic, so they can't be built like a giant tree. They have to be built like more of a web. Much more costly. Of corse it is more useful as well, but not everyone is willing to pay extra money to be able to do more then just watch TV.

    3. Re:Broadband infrastucture will run TV by stripes · · Score: 2
      It's true that a TV network is more effective at transmitting TV (obviously), but I still think that money would have been better spent on a next-generation IP based network.

      Well, the problem is it is a lot of money. I don't know enough about building a CATV network (I know a lot more about building big IP networks), but it could cost more then ten times as much to build a data network to carry TV then it would to build a TV network.

      Since I don't have any use for a CATV network (I have a dish), the CATV network isn't worth one tenth the price of an IP network to me. However I expect most people would rather pay $30 a month for TV over a CATV network then $300 for TV over an IP network. In fact I would rather have a smaller IP network so I could pay more like $100 to $150...

      Of corse there is the chance to design a IP network with traffic shaping and multicast allowed only for some senders. Then you might come closer to the cost of a CATV network, but it will be a pretty bad IP network, and still cost more then a CATV network.

      There are a lot of technical problems, but spending money on a proprietary system compared to taking a little more risk and planning in the long run seems an awful waste... I have to pay tax for this in any case!

      In the USA most places grant a cable company a ten (or longer) year monopoly in exchange for part of the take. It gets us kind of crappy CATV (no competition), and expensive service (again, no competition). However for people that don't care about the CATV, it is totally free. In fact it is a slight negative tax.

      In a very few parts of the USA no monopoly is granted, or a very limited number of providers (say, two) are allowed. They tend to have better service, and cheeper. The local government doesn't get as much of the take though. Even though I don't have CATV I think that's a better method. I might not even have a dish if CATV were cheaper and better...

  4. Fiber Glut by DavidBerg · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The glut of fiber tends to be more in the metro space. I really don't see the middle of Iowa with a ton of fiber. What this does is give the opportunity for metro buildouts. It's going to be the battle of the cities verus the towns all over again.

    Personally, I can't wait to have my own 100mb connection to the net.

    dave

    1. Re:Fiber Glut by GreyPoopon · · Score: 3, Insightful
      The glut of fiber tends to be more in the metro space. I really don't see the middle of Iowa with a ton of fiber.


      This is true, but my guess is that one the places where this dark fiber is going to be used eventually is in subscription-based streaming audio and video. And if you think where the most likely place for something like "Online Blockbuster" to set itself up, you'll see that a big city (with lots of customers close by) is the most logical starting point.


      Connectivity, bandwidth and service almost always find their way to the rural areas last. It's a trade off when choosing a place to live: In the middle of the city with honking cars and lots of people and a choice between DSL, Cable and Sat; or a nice house with some land in the quiet country and nothing but 56K dialup that might give you 41K if you're lucky. It was a hard choice, but I opted for the quiet country and 56K dialup. But I hear that someday we might actually have cable modem!! :)

      --

      GreyPoopon
      --
      Why is it I can write insightful comments but can't come up with a clever signature?

    2. Re:Fiber Glut by stripes · · Score: 3, Interesting
      The glut of fiber tends to be more in the metro space. I really don't see the middle of Iowa with a ton of fiber. What this does is give the opportunity for metro buildouts. It's going to be the battle of the cities verus the towns all over again

      Two things

      1. All that fiber from NY to LA has to get through those big flat mostly empty states in the middle of the USA somehow. While I don't think Iowa has been a big winner, I think Kansas is (at least for AT&T and WCOM's networks). Also if you want to keep latancy low to LA and NY, but only want one server location, the center of the country isn't so bad. Real estate is cheep there even.
      2. The glut of fiber seems to be long distance, so not in NY, but from NY to other big cities. Getting fiber to a downtown NY location is still non-trivial (easier then ten years ago though).
      Personally, I can't wait to have my own 100mb connection to the net

      Me neither. I fact I can't wait to trade up my crappy IDSL back in for something more like 256Mbits/sec like I use to have.

    3. Re:Fiber Glut by cosmic_0x526179 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      >The glut of fiber tends to be more in the metro space. I really don't see the middle of Iowa with a ton of fiber.

      Where I live, north Florida, my best connect speed is 26K pots. No DSL, No ISDN, No Cable, No 56K. About 10 miles from my place is a Level-3 light-regen facility. They have 12 1.25" ID ducts in the ground (3 or 4 of which I believe have fiber in them). Rumor has it, there is cage space available over there (I have not verified this yet). Hmmm 10 miles away... hmmm 802.11b... hmmm I wonder if they would sell me a DS-1 and be partial to hosting a short tower... hmmm.

      Cosmic Ray
      "another one, not like the other one"

      --
      This msg is brought to you by the letter 'W'.. for Worthless Wuss
    4. Re:Fiber Glut by djweis · · Score: 2

      And you would be wrong. You can run fiber all the way across Iowa for what it would cost you to go a few miles through Manhattan or LA. It seems like every time I head out on a 2 lane highway there is a crew burying 4-6 fiber conduits. Figure out how much bandwidth you can fit into a 1" or 2" pipe.

  5. Minor nit-picking by mnassri · · Score: 2, Informative

    I hate to be a stickler, but the comment about "if you lost a ton on JDS Uniphase, Ciena, Corning, Nortel and the rest, rest easy that you have helped build the future and inspire innovation" has no relevance to building the fiber infrastructure.

    The only time these companies would have benefited from your investment was when they offered primary and/or secondary IPOs. After that, buying their stock only raises the value of the stock for the people who own it (mainly executives, institutions, and joe public).

    1. Re:Minor nit-picking by PhilHibbs · · Score: 2

      But inflating the stock of FCC A will boost the IPO value of FCC B, so if you bought in to A you helped B.

  6. Long Haul fiber by Papa+Legba · · Score: 5, Informative

    Unfortunatly the glut is in long haul fiber, not local fiber. The most exspensive part of any connetion is what is called the last mile. This is the connection between your house and the nearest switching station. The reason for this is simple, Age. In most places the copper in the ground has been their since the 1950's and in some cases longer. It is of different specs than are ideal and is corroding.

    The problem with replacing it is that you have to get so many permits and studies just to replace one section of line that it is not feasable to do so. When congress de-regulated the phone industry they forced the local telco to give this last mile to the public domain. Any carrier can provide service over that mile of copper wire, be it DSL , POTS (Plain old telephone service), or long distance. This causes the eminent maintainer (the local telco) not to be interested at all in replacing any of it. Why replace it for other people? Monopolies are bad, but it does help to have someone who are directly responsible for maintaining a service.

    Free peice of advice for the day BTW. If you have a 56K modem it really helps to reduce the number of analogue to digital conversion (56K can only stand one) If you are having signal problems call and have caller ID added to your list of services for a month. This forces the telco to move you from older equipment to the new digital equipment they are installing. This will provide better signal to you. After the month cancel the service, they won't bother to switch you back and you will keep the performance increase.

    --
    Papa Legba come and open the gate
  7. FYI by NTSwerver · · Score: 3, Informative

    I know it's nothing special, but probably worth knowing - In my frustration at having to log-in to the NYTimes to read articles, I just tried guessing my way in, and guess what? I was successful on the 2nd attempt:

    Login: password

    Password: password

    --
    -----------------------
    Moderator's essentials
    1. Re:FYI by Saint+Aardvark · · Score: 2
      This also works:

      UID: 12345678
      Password: 12345678

      Enjoy!

  8. Re:High speed homes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny
    How is your typical email using, instant chat inDUHvidual going to need boradband?

    I can't imagine what a fully rounded member of society with interests outside the technological circlejerk might do with a broadband internet. I've certainly noticed that my father has hated having it installed, and has never used it to author articles on World War I aviation in magazines around the world. I've also noticed that my mother hasn't moved to telecommuting a couple of times a week, giving her no end of stress relief by cutting out the daily commute.

    Now riddle me this: what use does a loser, no-life geek have for broadband? After all, they can't talk to people, both because they have nothing to say and because everyone hates them; they can't use it for music, video or literature as their tiny little rail-guided tech-obsessed minds are incapable of appreciating the beauty and unpredictability of art; and they certainly can't use it for any sort of creative endeavour as all their life has been dedicated to a soulless cul-de-sac leaving them creatively dead. The only thing I can think of is porn, which these dweebs are in desperate need of in lieu of real women.

  9. Fiber Glut? by Darth+Paul · · Score: 5, Funny
    I don't get it.

    OK, I understand how my daily All-Bran helps with "stimulating new inventions". And "Inspire innovation"? Fair enough, it's happened to me a few times. But "helped build a great nation"?

    Wow. I'm gonna have another breakfast.

    1. Re:Fiber Glut? by camusflage · · Score: 3, Funny

      I believe it was Vint Cerf who once said that "Fiber to the home used to mean Raisin Bran."

      --
      The truth about Scientology, Xenu, and you: Operation Clambake
  10. Re:Eh? by Jonathan · · Score: 2

    Perhaps I'm being thick here, but isn't it kind of obvious that any available bandwidth will be used up eventually? How can we have "too much" fiber?

    Well, the question is not whether it will be used up eventually, but whether it it will be used up before technological innovation makes the current infrastructure obsolete.

  11. Not really by ErikZ · · Score: 2


    I don't think this is like the railroad system at all. When they built those railroads, you could actually buy a train ticket and USE them. I'm curious as to how anyone could use the Dark fiber that we now have a glut of.

    Without the equipment on both sides lighting it up, dark fiber is useless.

    --
    Democrats or Republicans. They are both taking us to the same place and they are not afraid of us anymore.
  12. Railroad bubble -- fiber bubble by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative
    Read about the railroad bubble in England in the 19th century.

    'Investing in railroad companies (RC) cannot be wrong,
    because they are the future'.
    • So everybody invests in RC stock to make a fast buck
    • RC stock prices are going through the roof.
    • Railroad company IPOs are the hit.
    • But sorry to say that many RC never make money during operation.
    • RC stock bubble finally bursts.
    • A lot of RC go broke.
    • People demand that those guilty of seducement are punished


    What about replacing RC with FCC (fiber cable company)?

    Go to your local Amazon store and read and enjoy The Devil Takes the Hindmost.
  13. NYT Account by 2dor!2d · · Score: 2, Informative

    here's an account we should all be able to use.

    cowboyneal2001
    cowboyneal2001

    --
    A one banana problem.
  14. Excellent advice by Futurepower(tm) · · Score: 2, Informative


    Another tip: If your connection is slow, try taking other devices off the telephone line.

    Sometimes old phones or answering machines have an electrical component called a capacitor placed across the telephone line even when the phone is not being used. This will limit the speed of your connection. Just unplug the telephone or answering machine or bell or other device to test.

    --
    Bush's education improvements were
  15. Re:High speed homes by anonymous+moderator · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The tech isn't allways there...

    Voyager Point is a new suburb of Sydney (and not a great distance out compared to some suburbs), with hundreds of new homes full of young couples, where each home is worth a bare minimum of AU$400k. The perfect market! Yet not an inch of fibre in sight! Oh, and adsl isn't available either, anywhere in the suburb. More satelite dishes than any suburb I've seen is oz.

    Perhaps they (the telcos) seem to have given up on new fibre broadband.

  16. A small issue of profits... by sphealey · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The problem being that while the railroads were and still are vital to the economic development of North America, by some measures no railroad in NA has ever earned a return on investment. Even the best-managed roads today (e.g. Norfolk Southern) are barely turning an operating profit. And the harder they try, the more money they lose.

    Which, come to think of it, sounds pretty much like the situation in the data communications business right at the moment. The only difference being that since investors are a lot faster to pull the trigger on businesses that they perceive as having poor future returns, the telecomm companies will probably never get the chance to establish themselves that the railroads had 1860-1920.

    So what happens when all the money pulls out, and all the telecomm providers (except the RBOCs) collapse?

    sPh

  17. Nortel and the Rest... by AnyLoveIsGoodLove · · Score: 2, Funny
    I lost half my office. Most of my friends are gone..


    My stock options are worthless...


    The stock price lost 90%.....



    BUT I Believe in Nortel...Great company in a bad time. Amazing technology.

    --
    "It's technical in a psychometric kind a way" -- C. Parish
  18. Indeed, an interesting parallel... by Pig+Hogger · · Score: 4, Interesting
    When I got interested by railroads, and got about reading about their histories and hanging around with railroaders, I realized that the railroads had solved more than 100 years ago the very same networking problems faced by computers during the last 30 years.


    When you have to operate a business (running trains) over a vast territory, you have to have reliable, foolproof and positive communication to synchronize the operations of all those trains.


    Proper communications were essential to avoid those dreaded "cornfield meets" (head-on collisions).


    Railroad signalling also has been a cutting-edge environment too; signal interlocking plants (where complex railroad junctions are controlled) have been from the start crude mechanical computers, where conflicting train routes are avoided by mechanical (then electric and now computerized - but with extremely wierd and exotic kinds of technologies) computers, all to boost safety.


    Actually, 100 years ago, railroads were the high-tech industry, and it is striking to see the parallels between the railroads 100 years ago, and the computer/internet scene today...

  19. Re:Wait a minute here, isn't rail not so important by sphealey · · Score: 2

    "I mean with the mass production of cars and trucks; how much do we even need rail?"

    During the 1970's, shippers in North America tried to switch everything over to trucks.

    Sometime in the 1980's, two things happened: (a) railroads improved their efficiency (b) someone did some simple division and realized that for shipments over x miles (I forget exactly, but it is around 500), transport by rail has about 1/20 the cost of transport by truck.

    So since 1990, about 90% of long distance, inter-city tranport again moves by rail (not to mention coal and the Panama Canal bypass, which are separate issues).

    Most of the small sidetracks and short lines are gone, though, giving the impression that there is less rail than in the past. In terms of tonnage, not true.

    sPh

  20. Re:Wait a minute here, isn't rail not so important by dbrower · · Score: 2
    rail is vital for bulk, non-time critical items. For things where time matters, trucks rule. You can get coast-to-coast in 3 days with a truck, which is hard to get by rail by the time you take it to the railhead and pick it up. Trucking is cheaper now that it has ever been, due to low fuel prices and rate deregulation. If you want the best of all worlds, you ship intermodal, with: containers ship->truck->rail->your dock. Hail Malcom McLean, inventor of the container.


    -dB

    --
    "It if was easy to do, we'd find someone cheaper than you to do it."
  21. yes and no - but mostly no by arete · · Score: 2

    First off, as another poster mentioned, generally inflated stock values help the next company's IPO in that sector.

    The upward trend of price makes people willing to work for (very little + stock options); and until you have the big price drop they normally keep working there. This can save a company a lot of money.

    It makes it easy for them to buyout other companies in a stock swap. CSCO did this so successfully they're getting sued.

    There are intangibles too, it generally makes it easier to push around your suppliers and buyers the bigger and more important they think you are... so, for instance, you can demand Net/30 and pay on Net/120. And people want to go with your product, because you're so successful and your stock price indicates you're going to be around for the long haul... false, of course, but it works.

    --
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