AdAge Predicts Tivo will Fail

geddes writes "Under the obnoxious headline More U.S. Homes have Outhouses then TiVos, Advertising Age has published an article with a few good points: 1) Tivo/ReplayTV/UltimateTV aren't making any money and their growth is declining. 2) Cable and Satellite TV services are slowly rolling out PVR on thier own boxes. So 3) PVR will become a standard feature for most television users but become as unbranded as programmable VCRs."

Comments

Brand recognition

[Duds]

True, there will soon be as many Tivo brands as you care to name.

But people will still call them "Tivo"s.

It's like in the UK, every vacumn cleaner is usually referred to as a "hoover". Or in the US "Xerox".

You cannot buy that brand recognition. Assuming Tivo themselves don't screw up, they will have a healthy share of the PVR industry for a decade or more.

Re:Brand recognition

[Zerbey]

Our Xerox eats paper, so I guess you could says it cleans, to a point. Does a pretty good job of shredding also.

Re:Brand recognition

[Anonymous Coward]

I have never called my vaccuum cleaner "Xerox".

Re:Brand recognition

[Penguinoflight]

Since when did Xerox start making vacumn cleaners?

Re:Brand recognition

[jocks]

The counter to that is the "Dyson" in the UK, it became an object of desire amongst UK housewives and broke the brand loyalty to "Hoover".

In these days of recession people tend to start looking a bit more closely at what they are paying for. Brand name or not, if it is not good people will not buy it.

Re:Brand recognition

[glesga_kiss]

But they still call it a "Hoover"... ;-) It's used for both the noun and verb forms of the word. I've never heard anyone here say that they are going to "Dyson" or "vacuum" their floor, it's always "hoover".

I disagree with your point on brand names, the majority of people will favour a brand name over an unknown brand with similar features. All that money spent on advertising had a purpose...

Re:Brand recognition

[Traicovn]

They may have brand name recognition, and they may be a 'household name' but does that mean that they are going to be around forever?
Picks up tha magic 8 ball... signs point to no

The article states that already Tivo/Replay TV are licensing their products. It is very likely that eventually you will find companies that are trying to meet bottom line prices and will buy PVR from whomever can give them the lowest price. That's business. Tivo and the like companies will most likely become more of a software company than a 'hardware' company, especially with the advent of digital cable boxes and satellite boxes in so many homes. Many people will prefer one box that does everything. I honestly won't be surprised if we see television sets soon with PVR embedded into them (does anyone know if this has been done yet?), say within 3 years. Most cable companies are going digital, and to access all the 'great digital features' you have to have an addressable digital cable box, cable companies will gladly install software that will get people to use their product, especially if they think they can charge an extra monthly charge, or use charge, or even simply offer it as a feature and insert a few extra advertisements at the beginning of the program.
A quick summary. Tivo may still be around, but they might have a much weaker hardware division, or none at all. They may also have to diversify to stay around... (diversify, I had to use a buzzword ;) )

Re:Brand recognition

[DaytonCIM]

It's like in the UK, every vacumn cleaner is usually referred to as a "hoover". Or in the US "Xerox".

True. But not every vacuum cleaner in a UK house is a Hoover and certainly not every US office copier is a Xerox.

Branding is good, but consumers purchasing your product and you making a profit is much better.

Re:Brand recognition

[Atilla]

here's a million dollar idea - convert old xeroxes to asswipe dispensers...

then you could say "i really had to take a legal-size shit this morning".

Re:Brand recognition

[Schnapple]

It's like in the UK, every vacumn cleaner is usually referred to as a "hoover".

I guess it doesn't really matter if Tivo goes the way of the dodo, but it's kinda like the Aladdin Corporation, they didn't fight the infringement battle over their "Thermos" brand, and now Thermos is pretty much accepted as a term instead of a trademarked brand.

Re:Brand recognition

[Schnapple]

I have to cite it as the same as a TiVo for them to understand.

Reminds me of when I got my Handspring Visor (the old black one - still use it).

Me: "I got a new Visor."
Them: "A what?"
Me: "A Handspring Visor."
Them: "A Handspring Who?"
Me: "A Vis-err, Palm Pilot"
Them: "OOOhhh..."

Worked for Coke and Kleenex.

Re:Brand recognition

[Croaker]

Uh, no other company would be stupid enough to try to use the name "TiVO" without paying for it, just like no company is going to market facial tissues as Kleenex(tm), even though most people use it as a generic term for that product. It's a no-brainer of a court case for the infringed company's lawyers to win. Companies just aren't that dumb.

What TiVO *can* do is use the patents it has to strong arm other companies that try to enter the PVR market. Between them and Sonic Blue, I think they basically own the concept of PVRs patent-wise (oblig. rant against patents omitted).

My guess? TiVO will get bought out by some big player... Sony, Philips, or perhaps even Microsoft once its business position slips enough and the shareholders of the comp[any want to cash out.

Re:Brand recognition

[glesga_kiss]

Obligatory Simpson's reference:

Homer
\noun\

1. American bonehead
2. Pull a Homer - to succeed despite idiocy

Can't think of any other real world names though. Frankly, I think we've gotten lazy in naming things, most of the time an acronym is used. What ever happened to inventing new words?

Re:Brand recognition

[Sivar]

I believe he was referring to "making a photocopy" as "Xeroxing", just didn't mention the photocopy part. "Xerox" is both a verb and a noun in the U.S. :)

Re:Brand recognition

[Martin S.]

...they still call it a "Hoover"...

This also used to be the case in the UK, but it has decreased a lot in he last few years. The Hoover company screwed up a free flight offer to New York and the fallout was massive. Hoover never recovered.

Dyson have taken their crown have actually succeeded in making the vacuum cleaner something of a fashion statement, and so a lot a people now 'Dyson'.

AIH we 'vax' in our house.

Re:Brand recognition

[mblase]

It's like in the UK, every vacumn cleaner is usually referred to as a "hoover". Or in the US "Xerox". You cannot buy that brand recognition

Speaking only for myself, my hoover is made by Eureka, I xerox papers on a Canon copier and my favorite kleenex are have a Puffs logo on the box.

Brand recognition is great to have, but it's not nearly the same thing as money.

Re:Brand recognition

[tenman]

Yeah, brand loyalty flies out the window, when another company offers me a comprable product when I subsrcibe to their service. I got a DishNetwork PVR, and now I have no need to pay ~$300 for a few extra features. Also, the unit I have doesn't cost me a monthly programming fee.

have a coke, a smile, and a nice day.

Re:Brand recognition

[frovingslosh]

It's not really an issue of what it's called. PVR is good enough for me, although I expect marketing will come up with something better.The important issue to me is if I can buy the thing at a reasonable cost and then use it without paying a monthly fee. That is something I hate about Tivo and a reason I'll never own one (and I'm not about to give the an excessive amount of cash up front for a lifetime subscription and then wonder how long their lifetime will be). The nice thing about the growth of the PRV options is that certainly someone will, if they haven't already, make one that doesn't need a monthly subscription fee to use it. Hopefully it will be a decent unit and that company will get rich by sellinh product, not by locking in customers to subscriptions.

Re:Brand recognition

[mpe]

But nothing sucks like an Electrolux.

Vax actually tried to use "nothing sucks like a Vax" upsetting DEC in the process.

Re:Brand recognition

[shayne321]

Reminds me of when I got my Handspring Visor (the old black one - still use it).

I go through the same thing when my (non-technical) friends come over and see me pause the TV.. They're like "How did you do that?", and I just answer, "Oh, I've got Tivo", even though I actually have a Microsoft ultimate TV receiver[1].. It's both easier to SAY Tivo, and there's less chance I'll have to explain what it is.

I even use it as a verb.. Friend asks: "Did you see South Park last night?", I respond: "No, I tivo'd it but haven't watched it yet". It's easier than saying "I had my Microsoft Ultimate TV PVR record it".

Shayne

[1] Before anyone starts a rant about how "d000d, t1v0 1s m0r3 l33t", or "why do you have a microsoft receiver? microsoft's evil!", let me just say that I've owned both, after my tivo-integrated directv receiver died, no one had them in stock and if I wanted a PVR enabled directv receiver, microsoft UTV was my only option. When the series II directivo's (as they're unofficially known - officially they'll be the Hughes DirecTV Receiver with Tivo Service) come out, I'll be switching back to tivo.

Just like cable decoders

[Ars-Fartsica]

PVRs will obviously be subsumed into the TV unit itself...TiVo can only hope to save itself through a superior UI and programming service that it maybe can sell to cable providers.

Re:Just like cable decoders

[Darth_Foo]

TiVo HAS already sold it to DirecTV. My TiVo service is now billed as DIRECTV DVR. Advertising materials are now calling it "DirecTV Digital Video Recording service powered by TiVo" or some such nonsense. My Series I combo boxes still have TiVo logos on the front! Can't change that with a line on the billing statement. Don't know about the new Series2 satellite receiver/DVR combos, though.

Re:Just like cable decoders

[Call Me Black Cloud]

Just like VCRs and DVDs! err...

Maybe it's not "obviously"...

Re:Just like cable decoders

[Schnapple]

PVRs will obviously be subsumed into the TV unit itself

Am I the only one that sees this as either a bad thing or something that won't catch on in the way people are implying? I like having everything separated into components and I generally see people who prefer TV/VCR combos as less sophisticated. Plus there's the whole bit of having to take the entire thing in when the VCR breaks. Plus, its not like VCR's are in every TV, so what makes them think the PVR will make it in?

Of course, TiVO, being a small shit, is easier to target by the TV networks. How will the TV networks sue all the TV makers? That's like all the tire manufacturers suing all the car makers - chicken/egg thing again.

Re:Just like cable decoders

[sckeener]

oh my goodness, can you imagine an 50"+ HDTV/VCR combo? or a 50"+HDTV/PVR?

Customer:ah hello, my TV died.
Support:Can you be more specific? What's on the screen?
Customer: Something that says ACME bios....
Support: Ok, can I get your address? We are going to need to send Big Brutus over to bring your TV in for repairs.

Re:Just like cable decoders

[Galvatron]

Not for a long time. So long as PVRs continue to be upgraded, having it integrated into the TV is a bad idea. The only way to expand the hard drive would be to take the whole tv into the shop, and that really doesn't make sense. Maybe 15+ years from now, when the technology's fully mature, but not anytime soon.

Not only that!

[Penguinoflight]

Another news site has just found that more outhouses have tivos than homes!

No, outhouses then TiVOs

[Adam Rightmann]

It's a fairly simple technology progression, once households have progressed to outhouses, indoor plumbing, electricity, cable TV and TiVOs aren't far behind.

Except..

[Enry]

Except for the fact that AT&T broadband and DirectTV are already rebranding Tivo for their set top boxes. There aren't any real competitors yet aside from ReplayTV.

Ooh...but I like the list of related articles:

"Without advertising, we will damage this country"
"72.3% of Tivo viewers skip commercials"

Then again, this is like MSFT reporting that Linux is pretty much dead.

Re:Except..

[GregGardner]

Actually Dish Network has it's own home brew PVR that is fairly popular. They pretty much give away the lower-end one for free if you sign up with them. And you can get a more souped up one (dual tuner, more hard disk space) for roughly the price of a regular Tivo and it doesn't have the monthly recurring Tivo cost. The software and UI pale in comparison to the Tivo, but supposedly they have a decent market share (as far as PVRs go).

As said on here many times, though, Tivo is now licensing their software to folks like AT&T and DirecTV, so you will soon be getting a "DirecTV DVR powered by Tivo" instead of a "Tivo". It's a win-win for both sides and will most likely keep Tivo afloat.

Re:Except..

[pivo]

Advertisers just need to figure out how to grab one's attention at higher speeds...

Next Up: Slow-motion adds with subtitles that play at normal speed while fast-forwarding.

Re:Except..

[GregGardner]

I think you're a bit confused on the facts. I'm not an expert on the subject of UltimateTV or Dish Networks PVR, so I might be confused, too, but this is how I understand it.

The first roll out of a PVR/DVR for Dish Network was called a Dishplayer. It was co-created along with WebTV (owned by Microsoft) and had a little WebTV logo on it. The software was notoriously buggy and lost programs/forgot to record programs, etc.

So then Dish Network decided to create their own PVR without the "help" of Microsoft and released the Dish PVR 501 (and now there is a 508 with more disk space).

Meanwhile, Microsoft took their Dishplayer code and took out a lot of the bugs (maybe started over from scratch), and created UltimateTV which worked with DirecTV's system and had dual tuner, but didn't capture much market share. Microsoft ultimately disbanded the UltimateTV group and filtered most of its people into the Xbox group and hope to release some XBox/UltimateTV beast in the future.

A bit later (and a year later than was advertised) Dish Networks released it's next generation PVR, the 721 which supposedly runs on a Linux box (like Tivo) and has cool new features like dual tuner (which both UltimateTV and the DirecTV/Tivo boxes already had). This box from what I hear has even different software than the Dishplayer or the 501 series.

Dish Network has announced their next-next-generation PVR, the 921 which has all the features of the 721, but can record HDTV. They claim this beast will come out in 2003, but most people aren't holding their breath based on the release on the 721, most people aren't expecting this box to be released until 2004 most likely.

So in fact I wasn't referring to only the Dishplayer, I was referring to all generations of the Dish Network PVRs and as far as I know, none of them run UltimateTV software. I believe the only thing close to that is the Dishplayer that ran some WebTV code and that WebTV code was the predecessor for UltimateTV which was a completely seperate Microsoft product.

Like I said, I am not an expert, feel free to correct any of my points if it suits you.

Re:Except..

[GregGardner]

Yeah, the DirecTV/Tivo combo boxes have been around for almost 2 years, but are not only known as DirecTV/Tivo combo boxes, but I believe Tivo footed the bill for some of the hardware manufacturing costs (along with Sony or Phillips or whichever consumer electronics company made the box), like they do with the regular Tivo standalones.

The new DirecTV/Tivo combo boxes are Series 2 boxes (they have USB ports on them) and are officially called "DirecTV PVR powered by Tivo". Note the "powered by", less emphasis on the Tivo. They are expected to be out in stores any day now and are only manufactured by Hughes (DirecTV). When you have a problem with these machines, you call DirecTV, not Tivo. Prevously with the Series1 if you had a problem and you called DirecTV, they would tell you to call Tivo. Little differences, but basically the new DirecTV DVRs are just DirecTV licensing the Tivo software and running most of the show.

Re:Except..

[shayne321]

Next Up: Slow-motion adds with subtitles that play at normal speed while fast-forwarding.

Heh, they're going to have to get REALLY good to figure out how to grab my attention during the 1 1/2 seconds of each commercial I see when hitting my 30-second-skip button to fly by a 2-minute commercial break.

/me cackles madly

Seriously though, I think you'll see more paid-for product placement (like the heavy tie-ins with SprintPCS and Toyota for Push, Nevada), and "Show-X brought to you by Brand-Y", as is the case with most things on PBS, and the fox season premier of 24 presented commercial-free by Ford.

Shayne

bah

[jtdennis]

"The stock of TiVo, meanwhile, is down 95% from 2000; its star has faded on Wall Street even as it's risen on Madison Avenue"

Give me one tech stock that's near what it was in 2000. I notice the article doesn't say a thing about whether Tivo has actually made money or is making money right now. As it is, they're getting $12/month from me and I'm looking to add another Tivo soon.

Re:bah

[Andy_w715]

"Give me one tech stock that's near what it was in 2000." Juno

TiVo's problem

[ibmhack]

The public at large doesn't understand or know about it! The techies 'get it' but most people view it as a hideously expensive VCR without understanding how much better it is!

Re:TiVo's problem

[Enry]

On the one hand, you have people who say "I don't watch TV", when what they mean to say is "I don't watch CRAPPY TV". There's a lot of good shows on that are on at times when people normally wouldn't watch them. I can't stay up late to watch all of Adult Swim on Cartoon Network, so I have my Tivo record it and I can watch it the next day.

On the other, Tivo does have a problem with explaining how it works. It's a lot more than saying "it's a really good VCR!". That's where
the existing user base comes in, as it's a lot easier to show someone how it works and what it does than listen to the PFY at BestBuy practically reading off the sales sheet and not know anything more about it.

Re:TiVo's problem

[Ed Avis]

TiVo's problem is surely their attempt to follow a subscription-based model rather than just selling boxes. It might have been better to manufacture PVRs, sell them at a reasonable price (which is still far above what they cost to manufacture, given the price drops in components over the past few years) and when the market peters out, just retire gracefully and return the profits to shareholders.

Trying to build up a base of paying subscribers may look good on the company's accounts, but shareholders are surely not under any illusions that these subscribers are guaranteed to stay around forever. Meanwhile potential customers (like me) stay away from TiVo because we don't want to pay a subscription for something (TV listings) which is available for free anyway, and the box will become useless once TiVo goes bust or discontinues service. The idea of PVRs is bound to take off, but you can't take that to mean that any particular company will survive.

Just sell the damn things like toasters, pocket the money, and stop making them when it becomes unprofitable. That's all there is to it.

Re:TiVo's problem

[RedX]

Yeah, TiVo really found themselves in a very narrow market. Without appealing to the general public, TiVo just grabs techies who are too lazy to put together their own box, which is fairly simple. Plus monthly rates are too high

While I'll agree that TiVo does have a fairly narrow market, it's not nearly as narrow as you say. And the narrowness of the market can mostly be overcome through marketing. Take it from a techie that has been building PC's for friends and family for years, I'd always recommend TiVo over any home-built DVR box. I've owned TiVo for 3 years and did actually experiment with a self-built box. You just can't match TiVo unless you sink over $1k into hardware. I even had one of those MS Media Center PC's for a month in their beta program, and after using it for a couple of days, it collected dust while I continued to use my 2 TiVo's daily.

Re:TiVo's problem

[Penguinoflight]

That's not what sells TiVos man, TiVos sell because you can skip commercials, and record stuff when you're gone. I dont watch TV, so no point in making a TiVo here, but Russel Pavileck has, he wrote an article for infoworld a while back.

Re:TiVo's problem

[mikerich]

Tivo needs to go to Europe,

Over here in the UK, TiVo has a real battle to get any market share thanks to BSkyB's own PVR - which is endlessly advertised on - BSkyB.

The Sky box is superior in some ways to the current TiVO box in the UK - it has twin tuners and can record Dolby 5:1, but it looses out on the software and build quality.

Unfortunately I think TiVo have pretty much given up on the UK, I haven't seen a print advert in almost a year and the few retailers that are stocking the boxes have them hidden in corners gathering dust.

Best wishes,
Mike.

Re:TiVo's problem

[Penguinoflight]

Well, you're totally off-base to say $1k to match a tivo. Any cheap athlon will do for the processing power, get a what, 40gb hd, and a cheap radeon, and you've got a box for ~$300, and you dont have to pay monthly fees. Sure, it will take a lot of work to get everything working smoothly, but $12/month will cost you over $600 in 5 years.

Re:TiVo's problem

[j-jahnke]

ReplayTV's model is to sell the device not the subscription. Which of the two (TiVo or ReplayTV) is doing better?

Re:TiVo's problem

[Ondo]

Just sell the damn things like toasters, pocket the money, and stop making them when it becomes unprofitable. That's all there is to it.

If they stop providing the TV listings when they stop making the boxes because it became unprofitable they would piss off a lot of their former customers. When your providing a continual service a monthly fee makes a lot of sense.

If you don't want to pay the monthly fee, you don't have to. You can either use the box without it knowing when shows are on, and just set it to record things manually (which it's pretty good at - you can have recordings that repeat every week, or every weekday), or you can just pay a flat fee once to get a lifetime subscription to their service. I believe when we got the box it was $10 a month or $200 once.

Re:TiVo's problem

[Enry]

It's hard to describe, but I guess I'll give the advantages of Tivo over an analog VCR:

30 hr capacity (or more)
On screen guide with info for two weeks
Season pass (record all instances of a show, with a number of options like only new shows, etc.)
Thumbs Up/Down of shows, used to record 'extra' shows.
Notification of change in lineup (new or deleted channels, change in number of a channel, etc.)
Immediate access (no rewind)
Record and play at the same time

Re:TiVo's problem

[Ed Avis]

Yeah I meant their business plan from the beginning should have been to sell boxes and not get involved with listings feeds. Although I think I see the flaw now - where else do the listings come from? You'd think that TV channels would broadcast an EPG (electronic programme guide) alongside every one of their channels. It looks like this is unfortunately not yet the case in all of TiVo's markets.

I didn't know you could use the box without a subscription, I'll consider getting one in that case. (Although even the biggest hard disk cannot compete for storage capacity with a huge stack of VHS tapes; I sometimes backlog up to two months' TV viewing.) I wonder if it has PDC support (Programme Delivery Control; an signal sent by the broadcaster at the time programmes start and stop, since they may not run exactly to timetable).

Re:TiVo's problem

[Deven]

It's not that simple. To do what TiVo does, and do it well, they really need a large number of users to support the infrastructure. Since standalone boxes have ongoing costs associated with providing the service, a subscription model makes sense.

ReplayTV tried to just sell boxes as their model; it hasn't worked well. They had to charge $650 when TiVo was charging $400. Guess who picked up more customers faster?

Arguably, the DirecTV combo units don't really provide a service from TiVo, since they leverage the guide data already being sent over the satellite. (However, I believe this data has been enhanced for the TiVo.) On the other hand, the subscription price for the DirecTV units has been reduced to $5/month, which is the same as the "mirroring" charge to have a second receiver on your DirecTV account. Since the DirecTV receivers with TiVo have two tuners, you get the second tuner free, and pay the $5/month for TiVo service instead, so it's a wash.

If you have two combo boxes, you only pay the extra $5/month for a second receiver, not another $5/month for the TiVo service -- the "mirroring" charge covers mirroring the TiVo service as well. I have a combo box with lifetime service (which is no longer offered for combo boxes), and my $5/month mirroring charge gives my second combo box the benefit of lifetime server, as long as both remain on the same account.

Meanwhile, the price of service has increased to $13/month for standalone boxes, but that's not so unreasonable, considering that maintaining the infrastructure for all those boxes to dial in with modems is quite expensive, not even counting the cost of preparing the data and updating software.

Ultimately, if TiVo can get over a million subscribers, they should be profitable by that point. Right now, they're more than halfway to that target, and still losing money, but it was part of their business plan from day one. You'll probably see TiVo turn a profit by 2004 or 2005.

As for what shareholders think, I am a shareholder, as well as a customer, and I don't have a problem with their subscription model. Most of the subscribers will stick around indefinitely, once they've got the hardware. TiVo is very good at what they do, and it's a killer product. It's just hard to market because the true value of the product is hard to convey. TiVo's greatest asset is word-of-mouth from their enormously loyal, extremely satisfied customers. Meanwhile, I'm going to buy as much TiVo stock as I can afford while it's still cheap.

One more thing -- if buying a subscription offends you so much, why don't you just buy the box and spend the extra $250 for lifetime service? Then you don't have to pay the subscription cost, and you can treat it as if you bought it at the combined cost.

You can't get lifetime service with the DirecTV models anymore, but so what? You get a second tuner in the combo box for the same monthly cost as a second standalone DirecTV receiver would cost you, so if effect it doesn't cost anything. More importantly, the combo boxes record directly from the satellite with 100% perfect recording quality, because you watch the EXACT same stream of MPEG2 bits live as you do when you play back a recording. Better yet, it's also much more efficient in disk space usage. The combo boxes thus have better recording quality than "Best" mode on the standalones, while using similar amounts of disk space as the "Basic" mode on standalones, which is said to be roughly the quality of VHS EP (6-hour) mode. The only real downside to the combo boxes is that you can't record from other video sources, only DirecTV. But with DirecTV's improved local coverage, that may not be an issue for you.

If you already have DirecTV and only watch the satellite, the "DirecTV receiver with TiVo" combo box is a no-brainer. If you use cable, it might be worth switching to DirecTV for the advantages. If not, you can buy a standalone (with lifetime service if you don't like subscriptions).

Regardless, if you like TV, get a TiVo -- preferably the DirecTV combo version. It's worth it. You'll never watch TV the same way again, and you'll wonder how you ever lived without it. And that is why I bought the stock; very few products have such an impact. My wife hated the idea of getting a TiVo (more gadgets) and it took 3 months to convince her to let me buy it. Within a few weeks, she was no longer mad about it, and within a couple months, she was extolling the TiVo's virtues to everyone she could. She had her mind made up to hate it, and it still won her over. If TiVo can do that, they can do anything! ;-)

Re:TiVo's problem

[Corporate Drone]

Reasonable points, except that:

• as others have pointed out, you're under no obligation to buy the service

• you're buying more than the listings -- having the service means that the TiVo can pick and choose when to record for you (you only want new episodes of The Practice? cool .. you want every episode of Friends that NBC runs this year? ok...)

• and, there's a healthy TiVo hacker community, which, if not explicitly supported by TiVo, is at least openly tolerated. Since the TiVo is Linux-based, folks have (1) added TiVo's to their home computer networks, (2) created add-on functionality (on-screen Caller ID, web-based remote programming access to the TiVo, mail, etc) and (3) produced HOWTO guides to upgrading TiVo disk capacity.

I'd say that the community, although smallish, is quite vibrant!

disclaimer: I'm not affiliated with TiVo, other than being a satisfied owner of an AT&T Series 2 Tivo ...

Re:TiVo's problem

[erpbridge]

I disagree. Of those, the biggest selling point is Season Passes. You no longer have to worry about complex VCR programming, week after week, especially when the airing date or time changes. Better yet, you don't have to keep spending money on VHS tapes at all.

I know that I'm going on vacation to relatives for a few weeks at Christmas. Yes, they have TV at their house (no Tivo). However, they don't have the same viewing preferences as I do (I like Sci-Fi, they like Westerns, football, and Elvis). I don't have to worry, though, because my Tivo at home will catch all the episodes I miss. Try doing that with a VCR, especially with about 15-20 hours of content.

Of course, I'll be watching TV for a while, at my leisure, after I get back, but you'd be doing the same with a VCR.

Re:TiVo's problem

[anonymous loser]

Why is this insightful? Tivo are not only making money by selling subscriptions, they are also licensing their technology to companies (Philips and Sony, for example) who sell the hardware. They basically incur ZERO costs licensing the technology (other than legal fees, I guess) whereas the manufacturers have to worry about startup and production costs.

Also, the Tivo service is NOT something you can get for free by looking the listings up on TVGuide.com. It does a lot more than just matching up the listings to what you want to record, it also figures out what you like to watch, and recommends shows that maybe you haven't heard of by (anonymously) collecting the viewing habits of others like you, and correlating the data. Personally I really like this service, as although I sometimes get some whacky programming (I don't speak Spanish, but my Tivo sometimes thinks I do) I also get many shows which I never would have watched otherwise, but which turn out to be shows I really enjoy.

Re:TiVo's problem

[McSpew]

as others have pointed out, you're under no obligation to buy the service

This is incorrect. Any TiVo device that shipped with the 2.0 or newer software installed requires service activation in order to function at all. Specifically, the first models to ship with 2.0 software were DirecTV-integrated units, but standalone boxes shipping with 2.0 or newer also require activation of the service.

...TiVo hacker community, which, if not explicitly supported by TiVo, is at least openly tolerated.

Second-generation TiVos are significantly less hacker-friendly than were first-generation units. Series 2 TiVos refuse to run code that hasn't been signed by TiVo, including custom kernels.

That said, I still love my TiVo and you can have it when you pry it from my cold, dead fingers. I'll probably pick up a Series 2 DirecTV-integrated model soon. I've personally bought two TiVos as gifts for friends and family and rave about TiVo to anybody who'll listen.

Perhaps an article in Advertising Age is predisposed to predicting the doom of devices that can render TV commercials obsolete.

Re:TiVo's problem

[Ed Avis]

I think that fundamentally, I object to the idea of the thing having a modem :-P. It would be far better if no expensive 'infrastructure' were needed at all - I don't have to pay for an infrastructure to use my oldstyle VCR or microwave oven, so why do it for hard disk video recorders?

I'm sure the money that TV networks get by restricting access to their listings is piddling at best. It would make much more sense for an EPG to be broadcast alongside each channel, then anyone could make tivos without the need for banks of modems and technicians to keep it all running.

Re:TiVo's problem

[McSpew]

Actually, for first-generation TiVos, TiVo did incur costs for every unit sold. They were subsidizing the production costs of the units in order to quickly generate a large subscriber base. This proved to be a bad long-term business model, although it did help seed the market with a decent sized core of early adopters before they abandoned it. Second-generation TiVos (Series 2 TiVos) are not subsidized.

While Sony has indeed spent big dollars to license TiVo's code for custom Sony products, Philips has abandoned TiVo. TiVo is actively working to license its code to other consumer electronics manufacturers, but in the meantime, the Series 2 standalone TiVos you can buy at Best Buy are TiVo-branded devices.

The new DirecTV-integrated models that should be out this month will be HNS (Hughes Network Systems)-branded devices. HNS is DirecTV's house brand. There may eventually be other brands, but that's not a given at this point. DirecTV has completely taken over the marketing and billing for DirecTV-integrated services, which is why the monthly cost has dropped to $4.99 (or free with some DirecTV packages).

Re:TiVo's problem

[Pii]

I'm curious... Where is the evidence that subscription models don't or won't work?

Back in the day, cable TV was introduced to serve people in mountainous regions, or outlying areas where TV reception was problematic. Then they found that people were willing to pay for something that was previously free, assuming it provided some measurable benefit (Cable offerred more channels, and premium programming), so they began to offer cable TV service in areas where reception was not a problem. Satellite providers do the same thing.

The fact is, most people are willing to pay recurring charges for a unique or desirable service. Shareholders know this.

Tivo's problem is not their model... It's a failure to deliver the message. There are still too many people out there that don't know what a Tivo is, or how it would benefit them.

You erroneously describe Tivo's service as providing TV listings, which you already get for free. Certainly, the listings are part of it, but the real service is not the listings. It's what the box does with those listings, behind the scenes, without user intervention.

• Can you VCR arbitrarily decide whether or not to record a show in a given timeslot based on whether or not the show is a first run, or a repeat?
• Does your VCR know to reprogram itself on schedule changes?
• Does your VCR have a 35+ hour long tape that never needs changing?
• Does it overwrite previously recorded programs based on your preferences?
• Can it choose additional programming based on the genres that you have expressed an interest in?

Tivo does all of this, and more. Unfortunately, the message when delievered in commercials focusses on Tivo's ability to pause live TV, which is nice, particularly for sporting events, but it's hardly the feature I'd focus on were it my product to market.

In addition to doing all of this, and more, it does it all well, using an interface that children can utilize.

This is what the monthly subscription buys, and for people that hear the full message, instead of just the TV commercial, it's a pretty compelling service.

As for the box becoming useless if Tivo goes under, don't bet on it. The underground community has already solved this problem, but has not made the hack generally available, because they don't want to do anything that may harm Tivo's revenue stream, nor do they want to damage the relationship that Tivo has with the hacker community.

If Tivo went under, people would be able to use their boxes just like they do today, using freely available guide listings obtained over the Internet (Just like all you would-be hackers that always say "Just build your own tivo." Yeah, I'm sure it'll be great.).

As we've discussed in numerous other Tivo threads, Tivo is trying to extricate itself from the set-top box market. They are transitioning from a box maker to a technology company, licensing their software to third parties so that the DVR function can be integrated into other people's products. Other have already mentioned AT&T and DirecTV. Tivo software will no doubt find it's way into other cable boxes, and most likely it will be integrated directly into TVs themselves.

Digital content makes this transition very easy. It reduces the costs of the functionality dramatically, as the need for MPEG encoding hardware will evaporate. Instead of encoding the picture, it will simply record the digital stream, just as occurs in the DirecTV / Tivo Combo boxes. Hardware costs will continue to fall.

If none of that holds any appeal to you, then by all means, continue to sit it out on the sidelines, and enjoy crappy programming on someone else's schedule.

Re:TiVo's problem

[Ed Avis]

Once you have rich enough TV listings data, the TiVo software features you describe are pretty trivial. Maybe enough to merit a $29 shrinkware package from the computer shop, but certainly not a monthly subscription. I can appreciate they're very useful, and if you enjoy watching TV you may get $10/month worth of benefit from them, but to me as a programmer it seems rather a rip-off. I'd rather have the listings data in a parsable format and write tortuous Perl scripts to choose what to watch.

Re:TiVo's problem

[jedidiah]

Then you've got the possibility of TiVo upgrades. They've gotten to the point where any ninny can install one. Of course they're more expensive than a bare drive. However, the entire task is reduced to the complexity of replacing toilet bowl hardware.

Any weekend plumber can have a 300 hour TiVo if they're willing to shell out the bux.

Also, I agree that Season Passes are the killer app for a PVR. The same goes for Wishlists (which are the same basic idea).

Re:TiVo's problem

[jedidiah]

PVR's record by name, not time. It keeps track of when programs are on and can ADAPT as showtimes change. Create a global wishlist and you can even record by actor or director. You can even create your own "Top 10" list so if shows conflict, the PVR can sort things out for you.

You set it up ONCE for each individual show, director, actor or keyword. No dinkering is required when your favorite show is about to change networks and it comes on a different time each week on random days between midnight and 4am.

Plus, you can have a 300 HOUR PVR.

You can pre-record EVERYTHING you watch and fast forward through ALL commercials.

Although, I would love to be able to upgrade the CPU...

Re:TiVo's problem

[jedidiah]

They should have sold to cable companies, not individuals. Cable companies already have local monopolies. Tivo could have easily had any monthly service cost passed onto consumers without consumers even noticing. Tivo should have targeted their devices as an enhancement to local cable service and offered integrated cable decoders.

Re:TiVo's problem

[jedidiah]

A PVR is driven by data that changes every week. How do you propose to get someone to feed you data every week for free? Do you expect to get the print version of TV Guide gratis? If not, why do you think that a PVR subscription is any less legitimate.

The device WILL function on it's own like a regular VCR if you are too cheap to pay for the program guide.

Re:TiVo's problem

[jedidiah]

The PVR DOES MORE. It's not just a VCR with a hard drive inside.

Re:TiVo's problem

[Deven]

I think that fundamentally, I object to the idea of the thing having a modem :-P. It would be far better if no expensive 'infrastructure' were needed at all - I don't have to pay for an infrastructure to use my oldstyle VCR or microwave oven, so why do it for hard disk video recorders?

Because it needs to send and receive data from the "mothership", and your microwave doesn't. If you're a hacker, you can add an Ethernet card to some TiVo models and have it use your existing Internet connection and local network to call home instead of using the modem. There are rumors that this may even be officially supported someday with the Series 2 models, using USBEthernet adapters...

I'm sure the money that TV networks get by restricting access to their listings is piddling at best. It would make much more sense for an EPG to be broadcast alongside each channel, then anyone could make tivos without the need for banks of modems and technicians to keep it all running.

Restricted or not, you still need to get that data onto the box. You also need to download software upgrades, and upload usage and debugging data. That's why the infrastructure is needed.

The DirecTV models do get their guide data over the satellite, by the way. But they still need to call home for the other reasons.

Re:TiVo's problem

[Ed Avis]

Why does it need to upload usage and debugging data? And why should I pay a monthly subscription for the privilege of doing that? Software upgrades, well, perhaps: but many other appliances have software too, and they don't require a subscription.

An Ethernet port and all that stuff is great. But it needs to be optional. You should be able to plug the box in, have it get the EPG data from broadcasts, and start using it. All these wonderful software features like tracking the shows you prefer are very handy, but no justification for paying a monthly fee. You might as well say that use of MS Word requires regular payments to Microsoft to keep the ability to open your Word documents, er, wait...

Re:TiVo's problem

[Ondo]

Yeah I meant their business plan from the beginning should have been to sell boxes and not get involved with listings feeds. Although I think I see the flaw now - where else do the listings come from? You'd think that TV channels would broadcast an EPG (electronic programme guide) alongside every one of their channels. It looks like this is unfortunately not yet the case in all of TiVo's markets.

It would have been nice if they had made the listings something that they didn't try to make a profit on and supported getting the data from another source if available. The DirecTV version at least should have been able to get data from their service.

I didn't know you could use the box without a subscription, I'll consider getting one in that case. (Although even the biggest hard disk cannot compete for storage capacity with a huge stack of VHS tapes; I sometimes backlog up to two months' TV viewing.)

Fortunately TiVos and VCRs are not mutually exclusive. :) Personally I have my VCR record shows I may want to watch again, like Buffy. TiVo makes it fairly easy to edit out the commercials when I do so, which is nice.

I wonder if it has PDC support (Programme Delivery Control; an signal sent by the broadcaster at the time programmes start and stop, since they may not run exactly to timetable).

Not to my knowledge.

Re:TiVo's problem

[sacherjj]

Except the smart TiVo owners just pay $250 for lifetime service (for the unit). I don't know about you, but a 60 hours TiVo is $300. At my billing rates, $250 is 2.5 hours. It would take me MUCH LONGER than 2.5 hours to get the software on my PC hacked setup to work with whatever guide data I found.

Re:TiVo's problem

[sacherjj]

Add in the fact that you don't have to worry about the tape that you watched part of, but not all, so you can't use it to record other things. As soon as you delete any program, the space is available for recording, unlike partially used VHS tapes.

The Wishlist feature is also incredible. Set it up with a few of your favorite actors and show type of "Talk Show" and it will record whenever they are on Leno or Letterman, or whatever. You didn't realize that they were going to be, it just recorded the shows for you.

A TiVo is like the Matrix. No one can tell you what it is, you have to experience it for yourself.

Re:TiVo's problem

[Penguinoflight]

Yeah, unless you were actually good enough to get $100/hour :-)

Re:TiVo's problem

[Corporate Drone]

yes, but following activation (and the first month's $10), you're on your own, if you wish.?!

and, if i recall correctly, i saw a post on the tivo community board, in which a guy detailed how to get into the series 2.

and, yeah, i agree... the Advert Age article smacks of "oh, those damn horseless carriages!" ludditism (sp?) ...

Re:TiVo's problem

[Deven]

Why does it need to upload usage and debugging data?

It doesn't need to. By default, it uploads anonymous usage data for aggregate analysis -- for example, that's how they were able to tell that the Britney Spears Pepsi commercial was the most-watched Superbowl commercial this year. They don't collect personally-identifiable information without explicit permission. (If you have a software problem they need to debug, or you want to be a beta tester, they'll ask such permission.)

And if it really bothers you to be tracked even anonymously, you can opt out of that too. Personally, I decided it was fine to gather the anonymous data -- if they can tell the networks what shows are popular, or help advertisers craft more entertaining commercials, I'm all for it. Perhaps someday millions of TiVo owners will provide much more accurate information than the few Nielsen households who currently wield far too much influence...

And why should I pay a monthly subscription for the privilege of doing that? Software upgrades, well, perhaps: but many other appliances have software too, and they don't require a subscription.

They also don't get automatic software updates, in most cases. The DirecTivo update to enable the second tuner effectively doubled the value of the box, but it didn't cost any extra.

Realize that TiVo can't afford to pay engineers to write all this great software, and then just give it away. That's a guaranteed path to business failure, which means no more software. They can take a loss now, and some business risk, for the promise of future revenue. That's exactly what they've been doing.

When you buy a TiVo off the shelf, you've paid nothing for the valuable software on it. Instead, they seek to be paid for the software as part of the subscription fee. In years past, TiVo subsidized the hardware (to keep the sticker price down), and thus took a loss for every TiVo that was sold. This loss also had to be recouped from the subscription fee. (Cost reductions in the Series 2 have eliminated the hardware subsidy, as far as I know.)

Without the TiVo software, a TiVo box is little more than a custom Linux system. And while there's free Linux PVR software out there, it's not even in the same league with TiVo's software. If you could just buy the TiVo box without software, and buy the TiVo software for it off the shelf for another $250, would that be somehow less objectionable to you?

Listen, nobody likes to pay extra monthly fees. But they have a business to run, and they have to pay their costs and try to make a profit. They're doing a great job; I want them to stay in business. I won't begrudge them charging what they must to do so. I get a lot of value from my TiVo's. Ultimately, it's a small price to pay, and I'm glad that paying a lot more upfront is not the only option.

An Ethernet port and all that stuff is great. But it needs to be optional. You should be able to plug the box in, have it get the EPG data from broadcasts, and start using it. All these wonderful software features like tracking the shows you prefer are very handy, but no justification for paying a monthly fee. You might as well say that use of MS Word requires regular payments to Microsoft to keep the ability to open your Word documents, er, wait...

Microsoft would love to have a subscription model for their software, but it doesn't go over well. But their "upgrade treadmill" tends to be even worse. At least TiVo is honest about wanting to derive a steady revenue stream as long as you're steadily receiving value from their product. They provide additional value by releasing new software updates without additional charge. Things could be worse.

Bear in mind that with UltimateTV, Microsoft never offered the option of lifetime service -- it was $9.95/month, forever. TiVo offered lifetime service from the start, and still offers it on standalone models. It's no longer offered for DirecTV models, but I strongly suspect that DirecTV insisted on discontinuing lifetime service as an option -- their business model is heavily subscription-based. But they lowered the monthly cost,and given the mirroring charges, it's really not a bad deal at all.

You seem to be offended to be asked to pay for something that doesn't seem to be costing TiVo enough to justify what you're paying. You're ignoring the value of the software itself, which is really the key component of the system in the first place. Do you really expect TiVo to put that much work into the software and then just give it away for free? Or would you rather be paying hundreds of dollars more to buy the product in the first place?

Subscriptions are somewhat unpalatable, but the alternatives aren't necessarily much better...

Re:TiVo's problem

[Ed Avis]

It's up to TiVo if they want to have a business model where they lose money on the boxes (or at least undercharge) with the hope of getting subscription money. They certainly don't owe me anything.

But my choice is to stay away from such pricing models. I'd far rather they charged a decent price for the box with its software, enough to pay their programmers, and then left it at that. Charge a decent price for a decent product, then it's mine and I don't need to subscribe to keep using it (or to get 'updates' of dubious value; consider that TiVo can remotely disable your ability to skip advertisements or do anything else they want).

Re:TiVo's problem

[jedidiah]

PVR boxes act just like a VCR if you don't pay for the listings service. You can verify this by disconnecting one for awhile.

Your "problem" still boils down to the expectation of getting something for nothing.

Re:TiVo's problem

[Deven]

The risks inherent in their business model are not your concern. But they provide sufficient value for the subscribers to justify charging them -- they're not just extorting money because they can. The subscribers are getting something for their money. Ask around. You probably won't find many TiVo owners who got rid of the box after a couple months or canceled the service because it wasn't worth it to them. What does that tell you?

If TiVo folded all of their costs into the product, it would be very difficult to reach the mass market. And as a niche market, they'd have to charge far more money. They charge $250 extra for lifetime service now, based on a business plan that demands they obtain a million or more customers to break even. Imagine if TiVo couldn't count on getting that many customers? It would be a niche market product, for which they would probably have to charge $2,000 or more, just to cover their engineering costs to develop the product. Would that really be better?

Instead, they're trying to keep it as affordable as possible, and using a subscription model is part of how they're doing it. People dislike to pay subscriptions when they can avoid it, but if they value the product/service enough, they'll do it anyhow.

There's no lack of perceived value in TiVo's service to their customers. There's some difficultly conveying the value to potential customers, however. This won't kill the product, but it does slow the rate of adoption, at least for now. If we ever reach the point where the perceived value is well-understood by the general public, you can expect PVR sales to skyrocket. Even now, TiVo has had a faster adoption rate so far than the VCR did, or CD players, or the Internet. Give it time, it'll become ubiquitous. Mark my words!

Re:TiVo's problem

[gpinzone]

Well, TV Guide and Yahoo!'s TV Listings are free on the Internet. You could come up with a way to parse out the listings from those web pages with a home brew PVR. Of course, if TV Guide gets wind of the program, there will be a constant and never ending battle between the hackers and webmasters to modify the listings enough to break the feature.

Re:TiVo's problem

[Deven]

I agree, they deserve to be paid for it - once.

If you buy the lifetime service, then you are paying only once. That's still an option on the standalone models.

Lifetime service is no longer offered on DirecTV models. I imagine DirecTV insisted on doing away with it, since their service is subscription-oriented. So you technically don't have the option to buy a new DirecTV model and not pay a TiVo subscription indefinitely.

However, I don't think that really matters. You can only use the DirecTV models with DirecTV service anyhow, so you're already locking yourself in there. You get the ability to tune to two different channels at once and record both -- ignoring the hardware cost of 2 DirecTV receivers and 2 VCRs, just having 2 normal receivers on your account would cost you an extra $5/month for the "mirroring" charge to be able to tune 2 channels. DirecTV receivers with TiVo, despite being dual-tuner, count as one receiver to DirecTV.

So you can get the capability to tune a second channel for an extra $5/month either way -- with normal DirecTV receivers, it's a mirroring charge; with the TiVo combo receivers, it's a TiVo subscription charge. To be able to record 2 DirecTV channels at once (for overlapping programs), you'd need to pay an extra $5/month regardless, and the TiVo gives you so much more.

Money is fungible; does it really matter what the description on the line item is? The TiVo solution is cheaper than pairing 2 DirecTV receivers with 2 VCRs. No, it doesn't give you the ability to equip 2 TVs in the house like separate DirecTV receivers can, but it has plenty of other advantages. Even without being able to buy the lifetime service anymore for DirecTV units, it still doesn't seem like you're getting cheated, considering the costs of the alternative.

(To be honest, I'm surprised DirecTV doesn't charge a mirroring charge for the second tuner, just because they could get away with it!)

Control

[Cire]

While I like Tivo, if they fail or not is really not a big thing. Companies fail all the time, even ones we think (or we thought) would be really cool. Think transmeta, or Segway.

The problem is who controls the content? Will cable companies remove features, like the ability to skip ahead 30 which they feels gives users the ability to skip commercials? Probably. Given the choice between pleasing consumers, or pleasing advertisers and shareholders (which they're leagally bound to do!) the companies always stay with the advertisers.

Cire

Re:Control

[Fourier]

While I like Tivo, if they fail or not is really not a big thing.

You don't own a TiVo, do you?

Re:Control

[Greedo]

Will cable companies remove features, like the ability to skip ahead 30 which they feels gives users the ability to skip commercials? Probably. Given the choice between pleasing consumers, or pleasing advertisers and shareholders (which they're leagally bound to do!) the companies always stay with the advertisers.

And therein is the biggest problem in the media industry: content providers are too lazy to adapt to changes in technology, so they fight innovation to maintain the status quo.

Record companies and file sharing. Cable companies and PVRs. Et cetera.

I own a PVR (not a TiVO, but a higher-end satellite receiver with PVR built-in). It's fan-frickin-tastic. My VCR has been collecting dust for the last year and a half.

And yes, I skip msot commercials. But why do I skip them? 'Cause most of them suck.

There are commercials, however, that I do watch. And often rewind and watch again. And call my wife over to watch with me. These are the funny, intelligent, clever or bizarre commercials. Like the IKEA lamp. Like one for Tourette's syndrome. . Like the Mini and Nissan ones (just 'cause those songs are infectious).

If companies just made better commericals, I don't think people would skip them as much. They skip them because they are boring ... and they are everywhere.

At some point (and we've probably reached it), advertizing becomes so ubiquitous that it stops working. People tune it out. Advertisers think the solution is to put up more ads, in more places, in unexpected places. It's only going to piss people off more.

The solution is to make better ads. Why don't they realize this?

Re:Control

[Lumpy]

The solution is to make better ads. Why don't they realize this?

I can answer this... where I work we shove Advertising at you... lots of it... and we make the Ad's too... (please dont punish me... I hate Ad's too)

The quality of the Ad is on the top of the mind of the producers and writers.. they want it to be fantastic, catchy, and make you want to watch it.. The customer (person the Ad is for) and the sales people want something shoved out the door for as little money as possible.

the only thing the sales department cares about is the customer feeling good about signing a $1.2Mill contract for 30 networks over the next year... and the customer will choke on a charge for another $1.2 Mill for the Ad production... so we throw one together for next to nothing and that get's on the air.

Re:Control

[timeOday]

And yes, I skip msot commercials. But why do I skip them? 'Cause most of them suck.

I have a homebrew (linux) pvr, and I skip all the commercials, too. Why? Because they're a waste of time and I don't want to watch them. I don't think I'll ever want to watch them, for the most part.

But you know what? Increasingly, a lot of the better shows are on HBO, which doesn't have commercials anyways. Nothing to fast-forward.

So long as I'm paying a hefty fee for cable access each month, I will continue to fast-forward guilt-free. Frankly I don't care if a lot of the channels go out of business. I'd rather my subscription dollars supported a smaller number of higher quality, commercial-free channels.

Re:Control

[Greedo]

I didn't mean to offend all you advertising producers. I, too, have friends who create ads, and what you say is absolutely correct: the creative teams often want to create catchy/funny/smart/intelligent ads.

The clients, on the other hand, want something cheap (as in inexpensive). Since it's their money, they usually get it, and it is usually cheap (as in crap).

So, the message to those companies too cheap (as in miserly) to want quality ads from your creative teams: screw you, your commercials deserve to be zapped.

My ire should've been more directed towards the companies that require ads, not those that produce them. Which is what I was trying to say. Honest! :)

Re:Control

[marct22]

The thing I hate about commercials (other than most suck) is they are so loud! I swear I have to keep turning the volume up and down, so, now I just fast-forward past them, thanks to TiVo!

I considered buying a TiVo

[Inthewire]

When I read about 'em I thought it was a great idea - trap the shows you want to watch, batch them, sit down and watch the whole lot of them when I felt like it. Then reality set it. I despise television. I don't even own one. So having a TiVo would do me no good.

Of course it'll become un-branded

[Lupulack]

Everything useful eventually becomes brand-less.

Take PC's , they used to be called IBM compatibles. But now they're just so DAMNED handy and ubiquitous that now nobody REALLY cares what the brand is.

Comparing outhouses to Tivo?

[Alcohol Fueled]

Umm.. Isn't that a little weird, comparing a little cramped place to take a squat in to a thing to record TV shows on? Sure, there may be more homes with outhouses, but do they really want the outhouse? Probably not. Everyone would LOVE to have a bathroom from MTV Cribs in their house, but they can't. More people probably want a Tivo, but maybe can't afford it, (I don't know the price, so let me be.. ;). Besides, I would think Tivo, or something like it, could be around for a while. Not everyone can be at home to watch their favorite TV shows, and want a way to record them other then low quality VHS tapes.

However...

[toupsie]

More U.S. Homes have Outhouses then TiVos,

More Slashdot Editors and Users have Tivos than know how to write a grammatically correct sentence.

Re:However...

[0x0d0a]

And you capitalized "Editors" and "Users" for what reason?

Of course it will fail

[RedWolves2]

When you have to pay $13 a month to receive the channel listing through TiVo when you already get them through your cable box it is not worth it. Replay TV has a free monthly service but you pay outragous prices to get it.

I would much rather get it from my cable company for $10 extra a month and no upfront costs. Even if the features aren't as good as TiVos.

Re:Of course it will fail

[cmeans]

Now that DirecTV has assumed control over combo TiVo/DirecTv Receivers, the monthly price is down to less than $6. And I believe it's free if you get their Total Choice programming...

As for the upfront costs...it only cost me $99 to get a Dual LNB Dish, DirecTiVo and Installation. Sounds good to me!

Re:Of course it will fail

[mosch]

I have tivo, and I've bought tivos for a number of friends as gifts. Every single unit I've purchased either has a lifetime subscription (purchased for prices ranging from $100 to $250), or has no subscription cost at all (DirecTiVo on a system that has the premium package).

As far as TiVo from your cable company goes, there are a number of such services available from companies like nCube, and don't expect them to sell for $10/mo, because storing everything at the headend means bandwidth limitations greatly restrict the number of people who can use this service, so it'll be expensive, and probably be billed at rates similar to impulse pay-per-view movies.

More likely is that more cable companies will follow the lead of DirecTV and AT&T, and create settop boxes that license TiVo's technology, so TiVo will prosper, even if they're selling less hardware direct to the consumer.

Re:Of course it will fail

[tswinzig]

I would much rather get it from my cable company for $10 extra a month and no upfront costs.

Me too... I like the idea of the digital cable box being integrated with the PVR.

Even if the features aren't as good as TiVos.

That depends on how good the PVR is. I'll keep my TiVo if it sucks, which is unfortunately what I've read in usenet regarding the TimeWarner digital cable PVR being released soon. :-(

Re:Of course it will fail

[damiangerous]

Replay TV has a free monthly service but you pay outragous prices to get it.

Hmm...you have to pay outrageous prices to get a free service. Does that make any sense to you? Did you stop to think that maybe the service is "free" because you pay for it up front? You can do that with TiVo too if you want, $250 for the lifetime of the box. BTW, the TiVo service is far more than "channel listings."

Re:Of course it will fail

[jeanlo]

I have one of these digital cable box where most of the tv guide features are accessible through a screen that hides the stuff you are currently watching. I always hated it. It could take me 5 minutes to find out what other concurrent shows are of interest to me or what is showing next.

With tivo series2, the menu comes up instantaneously, I find stuff really quickly, and what I'm watching is still visible behind the menu. For me that's one of the neat features that came with my tivo. In addition to all the rest.

Re:Of course it will fail

[cmeans]

I got my deal through American Satellite. I was there a few days ago for a friend, and it looks like that deal is no longer there...the comprable deal looks to be about $199 now...which still isn't bad as far as I'm concerned.

Click here to go straight to the appropriate page for Combo units. Note: They do have combo Series 2 TiVo units now, but I don't have any experience with them and their prices are higher.

Re:Of course it will fail

[quistas]

That American Satellite deal is for a refurb Phillips unit. I bought the deal, and got:

- dead access card
- refurb Tivo died
- American Satellite took over a week to get me a replacement unit (after promising me to ship it 3-day)
- various issues with programming not being turned on
- now my Tivo says "your service has been cancelled!"

It's been almost a month since I ordered the deal and I haven't gotten to use Tivo since. As much as it pains me, I honestly recommend people go to their local Giant Box of Crappy Salespeople and buy their setup there. Faster returns and problem-solving.

--q

Re:Of course it will fail

[cmeans]

The $169 "deal" has a referbed unit, however, I talked about the $199 deal which is for a new unit.

I'm sad that you had a bad experience, but that can just as easily happen when you get a unit from a local store...it's just a little easier to return.

A week is not a long time to get a replacement for a internet bought product...even with 3-day shipping, some companies still need a day or two at their end. I'm not making excuses for AmericanSatellite, it's just not that unusual.

My latest bad luck was with the Installation Sub-contractor. They did a terrible job, complained all the time, and charged me about $500 for the additional work they had to do... My previous two Installation experiences were wonderful... YMMV.

Re:Of course it will fail

[cmeans]

Two clicks from the main page:

http://www.directv.com/DTVAPP/imagine/TIVOPricing. jsp

It's free with the Total Choice PREMIER package...

Death of TiVo, film at 11...

[xTK-421x]

Another week, another article proclaiming the death of TiVo. Notice how it's posted by a magazine focused on advertising? Of course they want TiVo to fail, it provides the means for skipping all their boring advertisements.

Will TiVo fail? Possibly. Will it become useless? No. Due to their open architecture, people can and already have hacked the TV guide info, and if/when the day comes they go under, hackers will be able to take up the call and keep the service going.

I hope that day doesn't come, since this well designed hardware and software.

Re:Death of TiVo, film at 11...

[marauder404]

Just because it's written by such an article, doesn't mean that they're exhibiting bias. They may have an interest in its outcome, but I don't see anything in the article that suggests that it is distorting or otherwise mis-representing the truth. Yes, TiVo is great. Yes, TiVo is hurting as a company. Yes, it could quite possibly sale. They're presenting an analysis but it doesn't seem to be unfounded. Neither this article nor this article seem to be biased.

Re:Death of TiVo, film at 11...

[marauder404]

Ugh, I don't know what happened ... Corrected text follows.

Just because it's written by such a magazine, doesn't mean that they're exhibiting bias. They may have an interest in its outcome, but I don't see anything in the article that suggests that it is distorting or otherwise mis-representing the truth. Yes, TiVo is great. Yes, TiVo is hurting as a company. Yes, it could quite possibly fail. They're presenting an analysis but it doesn't seem to be unfounded. Neither this article nor this article seem to be biased.

Re:Death of TiVo, film at 11...

[sydlexic]

yes. but tivo and replaytv have the all-important patents. the fact that PVR features are being rolled into cable and sattelite services only means more royalties are headed their way. in the worst-case scenario, they will become IP companies instead of hardware suppliers. but I'll bet they stay in the software side of the business. as it stands, directtv and others are using tivo under the hood.

I agree

[Jack Wagner]

But not for the reasons they are pointing out.

Quite frankly since the PC is a commodity and and priced at very low levels so anyone with any technical saavy can build their own TiVo with a copy of Gnu/RedHat, some Radio Shack cabling and some common open source software tools. I've personally built prototypes of these units for a large client who shall remain nameless and I was able to come in under $200. Plus it's all open and non-propretary and thus I can charge my client to go back and make any mods they want as they go forward to the next level in the future.

I'm generally not a big fan of open source and anit-capitalist solutions but this is the perfect one where "The Shoe Fits" as it were.

Warmest regards,
--Jack

Re:I agree

[Call Me Black Cloud]

Brilliant! I'm forwarding on your instructions to my 75 year old mother...she's been wanting a TiVo.

Your obvious knack for user friendliness has made me want to hire you, however, your domain name can't be resolved. I guess I'll have to find someone else to take us to the "next level".

Re:I agree

[Ciannait]

When you can also write some neat front-end software for it that provides for all of the TiVo features (too many to name here), and can still bring it under $200, I'll think about it. But only if I don't have to be a sysadmin to use it. I'm a sysadmin enough at work; I want my PVR to not require an intimate knowledge of the command-line.

Oh, and don't forget to package it in a nice little black (or silver) box that fits within my entertainment center.

We won't even get into DirecTiVo here. Mmm, Dolby Digital.

Re:I agree

[mosch]

I'd be interested in seeing how you split out the costs of your "TiVo". I can believe your $200 figure only if you ignore the costs of software development, maintainance, an automatic update system, a usable remote control, a case that fits into a standard A/V system (physically, and visually), system setup time, high-quality audio/video input and output, high-quality encoding/decoding, customer support, ability to control a cable or satellite receiver via IR or Serial, a reliable source of guide data, and the ability to record by things other than channel/time.

Call me cynical, but I don't believe for a second that you can satisfy all the above requirements for a $200/box flat fee.

Re:I agree

[mickwd]

"I'm generally not a big fan of open source and anit-capitalist solutions....."

Except where I make money from them !!!

Not sure

[ekrout]

I, for one, am not quite sure at what point the following capabilities will be included with all standard cable television subscriptions.

- Auto recording of your shows while you're away, allowing you to watch TV at your convenience (just tell Tivo you like TechTV and it'll archive every episode automagically)

- Ability to pause live TV and play them back time-delayed when you return (great for bathroom and junk food breaks whenever you need one)

Yes, maybe a decade or so down the road these will be commonplace, but for the next 7 years, I wouldn't ditch my Tivo

Unconvincing

[crumbz]

Despite the relatively low market penetration, I am a bit suspicious as to the motives behind this story. Doesn't AdAge have a vested interest in seeing devices such as TiVo fail? This article has a decent analysis of the financial aspect behind the subscription model, but nary a word about the impact on advertisers from the loss of revenue due to skipping commercials? Poor jornalism, this should be filed under op-ed for ad-execs and the major networks.

All the more better.

[gabbarsingh]

TiVO uses Linux on a custom PowerPC chip fabricated by IBM that includes MPEG-2 encode/decode on the chip and the source is available from TiVO website. When the cable/satellite companies start building PVRs into their boxes, what OS do you think they will use - Windows Embedded? Perhaps QNX but most certainly Linux. More Linux jobs, hooray for Open Source!

Too bad that TiVO may not be able to recover their investment or may have to morph into a PVR system software developer/consultant. But their name will live forever has the few OpenSource ventures that 'changed the world'. And that ain't so bad.

Re:Cable box-tivo will fail too

[cdrudge]

Oh do you really think that if Democrats held some/all of the power that everything in the world would be find and dandy. World hunger would disappear. Terrorism would vanish. Cable companies would magically offer 10,000 different stations all in 10Megabit/sec clarity using 10.8 Digital SuperOctaQuadraphoic surround sound for 2.99 a year?

No matter who is in office you are going to have the same problems. The democrats bow down to big business just as much as any other party. If they were in power, the cable companies would just "pressure" them the exact same way they do now. Power corrupts. Don't make this into a political pissing match when it has noting to do with politics.

But the providers are rolling out "their own"...

[the_rev_matt]

I don't know about others, but DirectTV is not rolling out "their own", they are partnering with... Tivo.

Maybe people just like crapping outside more

[truth_revealed]

The article was written by AdAge. They hate such PVR devices. It's bad for the advertising business.
TiVo allows you to fast forward over ads, although legal pressure prevented TiVo from skipping ads altogether.

Predicting or causing?

[Anonvmous Coward]

Okay, so they're saying people shouldn't buy Tivo because people are going to stop buying Tivo. Aren't they causing people to stop buying Tivo by telling people Tivo will fail because people aren't going to buy it?

Anybody can make anything sound bad by lining up the negatives.

patents

[fishlet]

I'm assuming Tivo doesn't own a patent on their TV recording technology. This will be good for us in the long run but bad for them because as soon as something becomes a commodity, it's hard to make a buck off it. If they were smarter, I think they would have patented the thing (or bought the patent from whoever owns it) and licensed it out for zero to little cash until a large market for such devices arises. Then charge a reasonable rate for a proven/valuable technology.

Re:patents

[Zathrus]

I'm assuming Tivo doesn't own a patent on their TV recording technology

You'd be assuming very, very wrong. Not that any searching would have told you this. Nope.

These are just the three most recently granted patents. TiVo has others. Between TiVo and Replay pretty much every function and capability of a PVR is patented.

Of course it will fail (I love it)

[SquirrelCrack]

Every time I think a product is really cool it fails, and if I think it sucks it ends up dominating the market...

I loved my Amiga....

hated AOL...

I should hire out as a consultant :)

Re:Grammar?

[binaryDigit]

I think they're referring to the methane powered TiVOs.

They Wish

[4of12]

If you consider

1. the source of the story and
2. that many TiVo users enjoy skipping through advertisements and
3. that advertising forms the bread and butter livelihood of the readers of that particular periodical,

then the bent of that story is fairly predictable.

DirecTivo has been re-branded "DirecTV PVR"

[K8Fan]

I have a DirecTivo, and love it. I couldn't imagine life without it. Recently, I got a letter from DirecTV that from now on, my DirecTivo service was going to be referred to as "DirecTV PVR" and the monthly charge was going to be cut in half.

OK. The service hasn't changed. It's still Tivo software and interface. The monthly cost is half of what it was. The only down side is it records more "Special Preview" nonsense from DirecTV. Tivo still gets paid, and DirecTV has more reason to sell this great technology. What's the problem supposed to be?

Re:DirecTivo has been re-branded "DirecTV PVR"

[Scryber]

What he said.

The Tivo/DirectTV partnership means that Tivo should be around as long as DirecTV is. Not that that is a sure thing (hear about the near extortion by the NFL for next year's Direct Ticket licen$ing?), but I can't believe that Satellite TV won't exist even in today's pro-cable-monoply climate.

Furthermore, that "Special Preview" promotional stuff exists on a portion of your hard drive separate from your recorded programs so it doesn't "take up any space." So like you say, what's the problem?

And in other news buggy whip manufacturers predict

[eudaemon]

And in other news buggy whip manufacturers predict a strong comeback in
2003.

Of course adworld hates the Tivo, it is the best way to circumvent their revenue model.

There are probably less Bentley automobiles and Lear Jets than outhouses too... is anyone
predicting their imminent doom?

Tivos are a luxury item that threaten the status quo, what's funny is adworld feels the need to
denounce them now when market penetration is so
light... methinks they doth protest too much.

Word of mouth

[gamartin]

TiVo is an example where word-of-mouth should be working. Whenever we have friends over they're curious about the TiVo, but they don't really understand why it's good. We let them test drive it, and invariably they go away impressed; sometimes it's pausing live TV when the phone rings, sometimes it's looking at "Now Showing" and seeing your favorite shows waiting for you to watch, sometimes it's looking through the Season Pass Manager or the search for programs features or the suggestions or the interactive program guide. Regardless, TiVo presents an impressive package and our friends go away impressed.

We have DirecTV with TiVo integrated; the integrated package really is nice and simple. My wife is anti-TV and anti-technology, but she loves TiVo because it makes the small amount of TV she does watch simpler and more flexible. We find the service easily worth $10/month (and the price recently went down).

People at TiVo must be scratching their heads since they have such a great product and people just don't get it; word-of-mouth and trying it out seem to be the only ways people get it.

Re:Word of mouth

[Zathrus]

TiVo is an example where word-of-mouth should be working.

Actually, TiVo is an example of where word-of-mouth is working.

The problem is that nobody has figured out how to market to Joe Consumer... the advertising campaigns have been magnificant failures. But everyone who tries one becomes a convert, and proselytizes them to anyone that shows even vague interest.

I've personally gotten both of my sisters and one of my friends to buy TiVos. I may have convinced a contractor who did some work on my house. And a coworker keeps talking about getting one. It's not an easy sell though (the main concerns are cost and company viability), but once they do buy one they swear it's the greatest thing since sliced bread.

It really does change how you watch TV... and contrary to the naysayers, there is good TV out there to be watched. It just may not be on at times that's convienent for you to watch it at. Will you watch more TV? Maybe. Or you may watch less. But you'll watch it only when you want to and in ways you want. Being able to skip commercials is nice. Being able to flip back 6 seconds to hear the line you missed is better. Not having to sit in front of the TV at 8pm, or worry about if the VCR has enough tape, is the best.

Great... there I go trying to convert the unfaithful again. And here I thought I was an atheist.

Media Bias

[michael_lacy]

Advertising Age published this article. Tivo et al allow people to stop watching stupid advertisements. If advertisements become irrelevant, than Advertising Age becomes irrelevant. Therefore it is in AA's best interest to try to convince people that technologies such as Tivo are failing so that fewer people will buy them. It's market manipulation plain and simple.

Can TiVo be profitable?

[unfortunateson]

Here's their revenue stream * Licensing to DirecTV and others of a very smooth technology and a very nice layout of their remote (could use a few more buttons for when I use my DVD, etc.) * Quick bux from lifetime subscribers, but that's killing the golden goose * Slow bux from monthly subscribers (can DirecTiVos even get a lifetime sub?) * Paid downloaded commercials -- wouldn't be so bad if I could wipe 'em from the main window once I'd seen 'em * Fees from "Click here to record" on commercials -- rarely seen these days. I think only NBC uses it. Given that some VCRs have 30-sec skip, some TV's have 'mute for 30 sec' mode, the adsellers should have little to complain about TiVo specifically. And since I TiVo many programs without commercials (Rough Science to Sopranos), it doesn't apply at all! Advertisers should learn one thing: grab me quick in the first few seconds, and I might watch the whole commercial, or display really really cool stuff in the last few seconds and I might back up. ABC has had advertising in the margins during the "Next Week On" segments for years. And if you TiVo users out there don't know already: Select-Play-Select-3-0-Select for 30-sec skip mode on the SkipToEnd button. Every software upgrade nukes that setting, so it's good to memorize.

Licence

[codemonkey_uk]

In the UK BSKYB have licensed the TiVo technology to make their Sky+ boxes. So TiVo are alive an well as long as BSKYB is alive and well, and seeing as BSKYB is the dominant satellite television network in the UK, I'd say that in the medium to long term, TiVo is pretty save as a company, if not a consumer unit.

Re:Licence

[Andy Smith]

In the UK BSKYB have licensed the TiVo technology to make their Sky+ boxes.

Sorry but you're wrong. Sky+ boxes use NDS technology, not TiVo. There are many differences, the main one being that TiVo records video/audio data as an MPEG file which can then be played back, whereas Sky+ records the actual satellite bitstream and then decodes on playback.

What might have confused you (gah that sounds awful, sorry, don't mean to be rude!) is that BSkyB does some of the marketing for TiVo in the UK and also handles customer service.

Re:Licence

[AndyS]

Doesn't seem that way. Sky+ doesn't seem anything like a TIVO. It appears to me that Sky care too much about their crummy interface.

(my mum has Sky, I have a TiVo)

Re:Licence

[radish]

Nope, Sky+ is nothing to do with Tivo (other than being an inferior knockoff of course!). Forget Sky+, get yourself a real Tivo for £99!

Re:Licence

[Quikah]

Standalone TiVo encodes to mpeg. The satelite TiVo (like DirectTV model in US) records the sat bitstream directly. So it can do both.

Re:Licence

[jgerry]

There are many differences, the main one being that TiVo records video/audio data as an MPEG file which can then be played back, whereas Sky+ records the actual satellite bitstream and then decodes on playback.

Some TiVos do exactly that: The ones with DirecTV tuners built right in. They used to be called DirecTiVos but now they're something like "DirecTV with PVR built in".

I have one, it rocks, records 2 bitstreams at the same time (2 channels) while watching either one or a third show that you've previously recorded. Can't be beat!

Re:Licence

[Andy Smith]

Thanks for the info, I didn't know that. I'm still pretty sure that Sky+ uses NDS (because it definitely used to and I haven't heard different) but I didn't know any TiVo-based systems recorded the bitstream. Actually I didn't even know there were any TiVo-based systems apart from TiVo so I guess I'm outta the loop! :-)

This just in

[0xdeadbeef]

More people have sex with animals than read "Advertising Age". What this means for ad-copy writers has not yet been determined.

If the VCR is being replaced by DVD as ABC said

[wytcld]

If the VCR is being replaced by DVD as ABC said on the news last night, then a "Tivo" becomes the obvious thing to have once there's no more VCR in cluttering your space. Half the point of a VCR - playing rentals - has gone away now that half the households have DVD. The other half is better filled by Tivo than VCR, especially since the DVD has us spoiled for digital "quality."

Obligatory Slashdot vacuum joke

[sirinek]

The only thing Microsoft could make that wouldnt suck would be a vacuum clearner. It would blow.

siri

Where are the generic PVRs?

[Animats]

Why aren't there cheap generic PVRs yet? This should have happened by now. Integrating a PVR into a DVD player would provide a nice value-added feature.

Or is there something in the DVD agreement that prohibits this?

Re:Where are the generic PVRs?

[swb]

Panasonic has a 40GB model with a DVD recorder that lets you record to/from the DVD and the HD with VCR-like functionality. But its $1k.

And as the Tivo zealots continually remind me, it's not the recording capabilities of Tivo that are so great, its the guide and other advanced recording options of the service that make it worthwhile.

Even without the DVD player/recorder integration, you'd think that an HDD-based recorder with VCR-type functionality wouldn't be too tough to make, although I have a hard time seeing it selling for less than $300 -- maybe closer to $500.

I own three TiVos

[wboatman]

Well two working, and one for parts, and I have to agree that Tivo (the company) is the walking dead.

I declined to buy lifetime subscriptions to their service since I didn't expect them to be around that long, and it was the lifetime of the individual TiVo box. There is a reason I have a TiVo that is just for parts.

Both of the working ones have web access, network cards, and two huge drives. I plan to add the 4 drive adapter in the near future.

It was a cool idea. But with several open source projects to build a PVR out of commodity parts, and the potential to tie several homebuilt ones together in a PVR cluster, I really don't see what TiVo has to offer to the people that are most likely to buy a TiVo. Especially since you can get TV guide information with any of the ATI TV tuner cards.

It is a shame that TiVo (the company) got to spend all of that money showing people what could be done, only to be trampled by all of the cable box and satellite decoder manufacturers running out to implement the "TiVo" idea.

Such is life.

The Reason Why

[Kettleboy]

Maybe the magazine/author had an axe to grind but the fact is, Tivo and ReplayTV has never had a very large market penetration. In fact, I don't personally know of any one who owns either one.

I think the reason is simply price. I would love to be able to use the features of these 2 products, pause live tv, skip commericals on playback, very easy recording of tv shows. But the truth is, this type of convenience is not worth the $400, $500, $600, or more that they charge for the unit. That's in addition to the monthly fee.

For approximately the same amount of money, I can take my whole family camping every weekend thru the summer and have a lot more fun!

Also, I don't think it helped ReplayTV when their units began requiring broadband access in order to download the program guide and software updates. Most people in the country still don't have broadband access.

Re:The Reason Why

[AtariDatacenter]

I'm debating whether you've listed a number of reasons, or you've set up a straw man to knock down. Unless TiVos have gone up significantly in price, they should be available well under that $400 mark you gave. Looking at eBay's *completed* auctions, for example, the vast majority are well under $400. Just a quick scan and I saw 30 hour units for $200.

ReplayTV is a power-user unit and shouldn't even be considered.

But you're right in that they (Ad Age) probably had an axe to grind. And that they (TiVo) don't have good market pentration. But the large majority of people blame it not on the price, but on the education (marketing) of what the device actually does.

Re:The Reason Why

[drinkypoo]

Werd to that, I know one guy with a tivo and he loves it. He didn't even have a TV (except a monitor and a VCR) before tivo; Now he has a big screen. TV wasn't a priority for him before tivo because it was a pain in the ass, so he spent his money elsewhere. But the cost is prohibitive.

One assumes that eventually PVR-on-my-PC, whether it's windows, linux, or macos, will become as good as a dedicated box like tivo. After all, operating systems are giving much more thought these days to realtime priorities, high-resolution timers, and better multitasking, not to mention that all major home operating systems now do SMP (okay, so you need winxp pro... big deal, it's just like home) so that's a nice feature, and NT has forced affinity so you could dedicate a processor to your PVR app if you really needed to; which you don't.

Also television is going digital and it's just one step from there to TV-on-demand; DOCSIS cable already provides enough bandwidth for basically any quality video stream you can bother with. The problem is actually still at the server end, meaning how do you provide that many streams at once. But still, I think pay per view is going to end up becoming video on demand in the relatively near future. All the pieces are there.

Re:The Reason Why

[Moofie]

One nit to pick. I bet you'll find an amazing correlation between PVR owners and broadband subscribers.

Just because right now both are niche markets, doesn't mean that those markets aren't viable.

Re:The Reason Why

[mpe]

I think the reason is simply price. I would love to be able to use the features of these 2 products, pause live tv, skip commericals on playback, very easy recording of tv shows. But the truth is, this type of convenience is not worth the $400, $500, $600, or more that they charge for the unit. That's in addition to the monthly fee.

VCRs were hugely expensive 20 odd years ago. Though what proportion of the VCR market does JVC have now...

Re:The Reason Why

[fmaxwell]

I don't need super advanced TV watching features. You guys need to get out more.. :)

No, you need to get out more. I set up a season pass for any show that interests me and that's it. I tell it that, for instance, I want all first run episodes of Enterprise and it finds them -- whenever they are on, regardless of the channel. Or I can tell it to record anything with "Apollo" in the description. Ever. On any channel. I can then go out in my boat, on my motorcycle, or even on vacation. When I return, all the stuff I want is there. I don't have to change, label, or rewind tapes. I don't have to manually search every week for any show that might interest me on 100 channels. I'm not limited to three hours of tolerable quality video -- I have 96 hours of satellite quality video.

Geez, that's all TiVo is! A hard drive hooked up to a cable tuner with some TV guide software.

Will your setup let you pause live TV using a remote control while you get the phone? Will it let you pick programs to record by description? Will it record programs you might like based on what you watch and record? Will it have a slick, polished interace like a TiVo? Will it automatically delete older programs to make room for newer ones? Will it put save-until dates on programs it records?

Not worth hundreds of dollars to me.

What are you? A cashier at McDonalds? The things cost $300. How many hours are you willing to work for $300?

Hoover marketing

[T-Kir]

That was one of the best advertising campaigns ever... i.e. shopper goes into a store and asks to see the range of 'Hoovers' on offer rather than 'Vacuum Cleaners'.

Ever since Mr. Dyson got rejected (when designing the Dyson) by Hoover, and then when he was successful (Hoover and other companies 'magically' come up with thier own cyclone system) with the Dyson, he bans anyone using the term 'Hoovering' in his presense... who can blame him!

Although I've tried changing the term Hoovering to Dysoning when I help my parents when cleaning the Pub, which hasn't caught on too well... but we've had ours for four years and it is still going strong, the replacement parts we needed were the handle and the bumper (which got too many bumps). When they sent us a warranty renewal form, they still grant us the ability to get a new one if our one needs replacing!

Wow, to think this thread started off on the TiVO subject. I wouldn't have thought us geeks could be so interested in vacuum cleaners... but we need to reiterate just how strong the suction is on these modern cleaners, just in case any cheap thrill ideas (think Austin Powers and his 'personal' collection) turn out to become below waist lipo(and sausage) suction jobs! Careful now!

Re:Cable box-tivo will fail too

[dup_account]

but things like patents and copyrights discourage competition. The name of the game is to gain as much market share as possible and then do whatever is cheapest to keep that share.

If you really believe that (let's say AOL just to avoid flaming) AOL has innovated as much as it would have in the face of real competition, you just kidding yourself and have a limited imagination. It's only now that other providers are starting to eat into AOL share that they are getting back on the innovation wagon. And it's only because the other provider has deep pockets that they can afford to toss money at the issue (If quality matter, they would have been gone a lonnnng time ago).

3 Steps...

[toupsie]

1. It wasn't a message. It was an article posting.
2. I'm married so I already got the lady.
3. Profit!

Re:Cable box-tivo will fail too

[pivo]

You're forgetting that the desire to make money doesn't drive innovation. Innovation only occurs when there's competition, and competition tends to die when large companies have too much say in government, which is what happens when Republicans are in charge. Look at big business' contributions to each party to see which party they think will benefit them the most. Big business contributed $60M to the recent Republican US election runs, four to five times the amount received by Democrats. The bigger the business the less they'll be interested in innovation since they'll be more eager to maintain control of their market. It's easier to control your market by shutting out competition than by innovating.

As an example look at the phone company. Before the Bell breakup they made plenty of money and produced probably nothing innovative, at least nothing that benefited the consumer. Innovation requires a push from government in the form of anti-monopolistic policies.

Tivos in Outhouses?

[mgs1000]

But the question we really want answered is "How many outhouses have Tivos?"

Tivo owns patents on nearly ALL PVR technology.

[Viewsonic]

The only way Tivo will "lose" is if PVRs become illegal, or no one uses them. Neither of which will happen.

Then can have my TiVO...

[Spittoon]

...when they pry it from my cold, dead hand.

Re:Then can have my TiVO...

[orichter]

P.S. I plan to be burried in a heated coffin. :)

Blinking 12:00

[jmoriarty]

It was the Tivo UI that really made my decision between Tivo and ReplayTV. I saw a new

Re:Blinking 12:00

[jmoriarty]

Let me try this again, thanks to a pesky coworker sitting on my keyboard.

The Tivo UI is what set Tivo apart from ReplayTV. It was easy to use and versatile! This article about a grandmother who fell in love with Tivo after getting it from her children should go into the Tivo advertising campaign.

People still get stuck programming their VCRs, exactly because it is a generic technology with no room for innovation. Tivo adds that interactive layer where useability actually makes a difference, and is the driving reason their customer satisfaction is through the roof.

Tivo may morph and evolve, but I can never see it becoming a generic device like a VCR.

TIVO owns nearly all PVR patents..They will make$$

[Viewsonic]

As the cable providers try to introduce their own PVRs, they will have to pay Tivo directly to do it. Like MicroSoft and their Ultimate TV, they will have to license it all from Tivo.

Tivo simply not superior

[ohboy-sleep]

OK, hear me out. I'm just not getting the whole "TiVo is da bomb and if you're still using VCRs then you're human refuse" tone. It's not just from these posts but in general.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but there is a limit to the amount of space you can store programs on a TiVo. What happens if I want to see an episode of Alias I recorded three weeks ago, or the Laverne & Shirley christmas episode I caught on Nick at Nite last year, or "All You Need is Cash" I happened to catch five years ago?** I'm pretty much stuck.

While the commercial skip feature is nice, it's not so much better than the fast forward button to warrant an additional expense. (Plus as an added bonus you can pop in an old tape from several years back. Commercials make fun nostalgia.)

Plus with a VCR, I can tell my friend, "Hey I missed Buffy last night, did you tape it?". Again, I could be wrong, but I don't know if TiVo offers such a feature.

And one argument I've seen in like half-a-dozen posts is how "bulky" VCRs are. Is 3 square feet of shelf space really that precious?

Now I'm not saying Tivos are bad. I'm just stating VCRs are good too.

** Feel free to make fun of my recording choices :)

Re:Tivo simply not superior

[Cro Magnon]

Tivo doesn't really REPLACE the VCR, due to it's limited storage, but you can save Tivo'd programs to the VCR for permanent archives. And Tivo's a lot easier than fumbling for tapes.

Re:Tivo simply not superior

[Overzeetop]

I got one for my wife for her birthday a year and a half ago. The way we use it is almost never advertised, and can't be done on a VCR or any PC-PVR product I'm aware of:

We follow just a couple of prime time series - The West Wing is our fav. Tivo is set to record only the first-run episodes. I think tonight may be the first time in a year that we've "caught up" with the series and may watch it live.

My wife likes certain history/info topics (ancient Egypt, ghost stories, and the Civil War for examples). TiVo is set to record these as "suggestions." There's always something on she really likes to watch.

It's worth the subscription price to never have to worry about setting the recording schedule. It's just effortless to watch the small % of broadcast TV we like. Nobody else offers that (though with a better central database, a PC-PVR could probably be programmed...by my wife would never do it).

I though about cancelling when the subscription went up to $13, but we just get too much out of it.

Re:Tivo simply not superior

[Zathrus]

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but there is a limit to the amount of space you can store programs on a TiVo.

Yes... and there's a limit to how much space on a VCR tape too. Or your computer's hard drive. TiVos are upgradable (and if you don't feel comfortable doing it yourself, there are companies that will do it for you now and give you a warrantee on their work and/or the unit). We have two TiVos. They came with 30 GB HDs, and we could store about 24 hours of video on them in medium resolution. We did occasionally run into problems with space, since a couple week vacation could cause older programs to be deleted.

I upgraded both with 80G drives, giving them 110G total and roughly 100 hours of video. I have never had anything deleted before I could watch it now. I have programs that are over 6 months old on my TiVo still. My wife has stuff over a year old (or maybe we finally dumped it to tape, I don't recall). Heck, I still have 6+ pages of "Suggestions" recorded by the TiVo, which is over half the storage space.

And if I ever wanted to dump something to tape, then I can - TiVo has a "Record to VCR" feature that makes this easy. But I'd be more likely to rip the video out to my PC and store it on SVCD or something. Which you can't do very easily with a VCR.

Plus with a VCR, I can tell my friend, "Hey I missed Buffy last night, did you tape it?". Again, I could be wrong, but I don't know if TiVo offers such a feature

I can, and have, dumped stuff to tape from my TiVo for friends that missed something - even friends with a TiVo. With Replay you can just send them the episode via Internet. You can, theoretically, do the same with TiVo, but it's not officially supported or condoned.

Yes, that means you'll need a VCR too. I have to dig mine up and pray it still works when I actually need it.

While the commercial skip feature is nice, it's not so much better than the fast forward button to warrant an additional expense

Commercial skipping is really one of the lesser features of PVRs... it's hard for people to get this, but it's true. I'd be deeply annoyed if it wasn't there of course. The real feature is that a TiVo frees you from having to watch TV except when you want to. You don't have to worry about when shows are on - TiVo takes care of it. You don't have to worry about having enough tape in the VCR - the HD records more than any tape. You don't have to label tapes because TiVo has the program guide data already. Watching something live? Phone rings? No problem, hit pause. Or maybe you missed that last line - hit 6 second rewind. And everything's instant.

About the best comparison I can give you is how much better CDs are compared to tapes. Instant access, cleaner, faster, better.

Bad shows on during YOUR viewing period you mean.

[Viewsonic]

All the good shows are generally on at bizarre hours when people dont have the time to watch them, or are at work, or just are too busy in general. Tivo has made TV worthwhile again, with it, you weed out those shows you "dispise" .. You'll NEVER see them again! EVER ! How cool is that? To me it sounds like TIVO is your holy grail. I had basic cable because when I watched TV nothing was on. It was all crap. A friend got a Tivo and I liked how it grabbed Sienfeld at the odd hours .. I got my own, and now I have full DIGITAL cable, with 6 HBOs, and my Tivo is OVERFLOWING with documentries, great comedy skits, and some really fantastic movies on Independent Film Channel! TV *rocks*, but only with a TIVO.

Commentary

[dup_account]

1) Gee, an advertising magazine saying that a product that allows skipping advertising is going to fail. There's a surprise.

2) If you don't own Tivo, you don't understand. I have a DirectTv/Tivo system. I can record two things at once, program wish lists, record something after it starts (I'm watching it, decide the wife would like it, so tell it to record the whole program). it records stuff in free space, based on what I watch, some of which I actually watch.

They DO own all the patents on PVR technology...

[Viewsonic]

Why do you think every PVR device (DirectTV, UltimateTV, Replay, etc etc) all PAY Tivo for use of their patents?

If PVR become standard like VCR...

[lp_bugman]

"3) PVR will become a standard feature for most television users but become as unbranded as programmable VCRs." Even on that case You will still need a central company that creates and broadcasts the service and indexing to all the PVR's enabled systems... That company will be most likely TiVo: Since tivo: Only makes money fro the service not from the hardware, unlike other PVR's. Rememver TiVo is a service provider that can modify it's target market if the environment changes.

Another happy dishnetwork customer

[Matey-O]

Their low end unit, including installation of a _third_ dish (to get the sat that'll carry the bulk of thier HDTV programming) cost me $200.

That's for the 501 model...(up to 30 hour recording capacity), but there AREN'T ANY 501's anymore. They give you the 508 which has a 80gb drive good for about 60 hours of recording.

I don't have a thumbsup/thunmbs down button, but that MAY not be a bad thing. We're watching more TV now than we did before getting the PVR AND it's stuff we want to watch.

You skip less Ads than you think

[Matey-O]

Not only do you STILL see parts of the Ads. I'm finding that I still watch the commercials I want to. (mmmmm 4 disk Lord of the Rings DVD - November 12th) Further, it's easy to forget you're watching something pre-recorded and you end up watching the commercials anyway.

It doesn't dull that crack-whore-rapid-fire hitting of the +30 seconds button when you're watchin live T.V. though.

They may be right

[Jahf]

The assumption that TiVo as it is known now will go away is quite possibly true if my case is indicative. I do believe that the name "TiVo" will stick for awhile, and perhaps the company will make some money from selling it, but otherwise ...

I bought a TiVo about 6 months ago. I'd known about them for a long time, but just didn't feel the features I wanted (HDTV/component signal primarily) were there so I kept waiting. I finally found a display model at Sears for $60 with 20 hour capacity and picked it up and hacked in a bigger drive.

I chose not to do a lifetime activation because I wasn't 100% sure I would keep this unit for long enough for it to be economical.

Turns out I was probably right ... we moved to a small community not long ago that is serviced by an independent cable retailer. Most of the TiVo listings were off by 3 hours (pacific network schedules versus eastern network schedules).

I didn't think it would be that big of a deal, but TiVo only lets you get 3 channels adjusted at a time due to a limitation in their ticketing system. It's been 2+ months and I still have 2 channels left with bad schedules. Without a decent schedule, TiVo is almost worthless.

I investigated the satellite options and have decided to wait another 6-12 months. At that time it looks pretty solid that the satellite companies will have an HDTV PVR option. It might even be an option sooner but I'm not banking on it. At that point I will gladly give up my TiVo.

It's just not worth the bad quality recordings (which are more the fault of the local cable company, but suck nonetheless), missed programs (TiVo and the cable company are equally at fault here) and the inability to use my HDTV (again, equally both are at fault).

Once I have a PVR that is scheduled by the same company (satellite) that actually programs the broadcasts, I doubt I will have programming issues, either. Plus, it sounds like the satellite PVRs record the data stream directly meaning a virtually perfect recording.

We don't use more than 20-30 hours of recording unless we are heading out on vacation, so going HDTV should not dent my PVR storage as badly as the folks who archive lots of programs. Plus, more than half of the storage we use is for my wife's ancient Law & Order, ER and Trading Spaces, so maybe I won't mind more strict recording limitations ;)

I love the idea of TiVo, and I don't -wish- them to go away, but in my case brand loyalty is nowhere near as big a force as all the detriments with the current model.

I think this will happen to TiVo...

[MtViewGuy]

...They will be bought out by Sony Corporation.

It's not a far-fetched idea. After all, Sony makes TiVo boxes, licensed the technology for Sony-branded PVR boxes sold in Japan and Sony has openly supported Linux, the OS behind TiVo.

I think TiVo will really thrive with Sony's powerful engineering and technical resources, especially since Sony is one of the most powerful brand names on this planet, period.

You don't have to pay a monthly fee

[nosilA]

You are paying for the program guide, not the unit. Yes, TiVo makes the majority of its profits off the subscriptions, but it is not losing money on the units themselves.

Now, without the program guide, you lose most of the features that make TiVo great, but it's still a functional PVR, and at about the minimum cost you could make such a device for.

And the program guide has to cost money, because it costs TiVo a lot of money to prepare the information, provide dial-in phone lines, and fend off the Gemstar patent lawsuits.

-Alison

Tivo, hardware vs. software company

[Andy Dodd]

Other than the reference design, TiVo IS more of a software than a hardware company. All of the TiVo PVRs are made by either Phillips or Sony.

TiVo wouldn't care if someone started giving away TiVo boxes, as long as they were still selling their service, which is their revenue stream.

Most obvious thing wrong with this article: It states that the inclusion of PVR features will be the downfall of TiVo/ReplayTV.

Um, how? DishPVR = rebranded ReplayTV
DirectTV's PVR system used to be known as DirecTiVo - It's no longer called that, but it's still a TiVo system that TiVo is making money off of.

Re:Tivo, hardware vs. software company

[DmitriA]

Um, how? DishPVR = rebranded ReplayTV

No, Dish makes their own PVR boxes and develops their own software for it. The only exception to that would be their earliest PVR product called the DishPlayer which they developed in conjunction with Microsoft, but it has been plagued with a ton of bugs and slow update cycles and they have stayed clear of these types of partnerships ever since (preferring to develop everything in-house)

Re:Tivo, hardware vs. software company

[sacherjj]

Other than the reference design, TiVo IS more of a software than a hardware company. All of the TiVo PVRs are made by either Phillips or Sony.

While I agree with your comment that TiVo is more of a software than a hardware company, you should know that Series 2 60 and 80 Gig TiVos are in fact produced by TiVo. Philips has not produced a Series 2 device (and will not be). AT&T are the only other company that has produced a Series 2 device. Sony will most likely do so.

$300, no subscription

[nosilA]

The 60-hour Series 2 TiVo is $350 - $50 rebate from Best Buy, and probably any other electronics store. Without the subscription, you can still pause live TV, and record shows if you know the date and time. You lose the option to do season pass, thumbs up/down, suggestions, etc, but you do have better than VCR functionality anyway.

-Alison

Bzzt, wrong!

[Andy Dodd]

Dish Network doesn't have its own home brew PVR.

Dish Network has rebranded ReplayTV.

Which renders the article incorrect, since both Dish (ReplayTV) and DirecTV's (TiVo) offerings are rebrands of the companies the article says will fail because of these satellite PVRs...

Shocking...

[aallan]

An advertising journal predicts that a piece of technology that lets you skip ads will fail? Well I'm shocked, deeply shocked I must say... its not as if they have an axe to grind, is it?

Al.

Re:They DO own all the patents on PVR technology..

[jgerry]

Why do you think every PVR device (DirectTV, UltimateTV, Replay, etc etc) all PAY Tivo for use of their patents?

Could you provide some data/links to prove this? I am not at all sure that it's true.

Re:Some cable companies are rolling their own

[mosch]

Time Warner isn't writing that software, they're just customizing an interface to other software. If it's basic PVR functionality, then it's using Keen Personal Media's product, if it's the advanced version (where you can record programs by name and such), then it's by Metabyte. Either way, it's not an inexpensive cable box, a box such as your describing has a cost of somewhere in the neighborhood of $350 to $500 per unit, in volume.

For better or for worse, the costs are being offset by revenue generated by targetted advertising (the SA8000 PVR stuff can do personalized ad insertion), and selling your viewing habits. If you'd prefer to pay $10/mo forever in order to receive targetted advertisements, that's your decision, though I tend to think that a one-time $250 payment is a much, much better deal.

Film at 11?

[sulli]

Fuck that, I'll TiVo it and watch it in the morning.

Main Reason = Service Fees

[falser]

The only reason that I haven't bought Tivo is because of the service fee, and the absurd cost of Tivo if you get an unlimited service that is tied to the box, and not to the customer.

I've got WAY too many bills to pay per month already - phone, cell phone, TV, electricity, water, gas, isp, insurance, gym. I simply will not add another $15/mo just to add extra features to my TV watching abilities.

On top of that Tivo lost me as a potential customer because they have decided not take the leap into the 21st century.

1) If they had added a network interface to the boxes, and used the internet to do the scheduling updates rather than using an expensive phoneline service. That drops the cost of the service to near zero. Also the network capabilities could add a web interface, and backing up of recorded shows.

2) Build a DVD/CD burner into the box, and allow you to burn shows to disc and play them back on a computer etc. DVD burners and media are getting cheaper, so this is feasible.

Until ANY box can do these things for an affordable cost I'm staying away. I dislike being bound and gagged while watching a closed circuit box.

Uh, no I'm not

[GregGardner]

I'm sorry, but I believe that you are wrong. Can you post some proof that the Dish Network has a rebranded ReplayTV?

Everything that I've ever heard about the various instances of the Dish Network PVR (the first Dishplayers, then the 501/508 series, and now the 721 series, which I believe all run different software) said that Dish did the software themselves. Searching on SonicBlue's site (parent company of ReplayTV) shows no hits having anything to do with Dish Network except that their standalone unit works with cable, DirecTV or Dish Networks. You would think that that would be something they would at least mention on their website.

freevo

[tenman]

forget hardware for a moment, It's not all about the hardware. Matter of fact, I have two 800Mhz PC's with WinTV capture cards, Linux, and Freevo. These work in the place of Tivo, and offer me the ability to play with the underlying linux distro without voiding anything. I would never buy a TiVo. I will get the PVR with my satallite system, but for now, I just use my Freevo Boxes... I know that /. has run a story on them... check the hardware lists out. It's easy to build and sweet to run.

The key passage...

[CommieLib]

...the business model -- subsidizing manufacturers and relying on subscriptions for profits -- was not viable.

Why not? People view PVR as an applicance, like a DVD player, not as a service, like satellite TV. I don't have one, though I would really like one. The reason? I don't want or need any additional guides, services, or communication with a server. I just want a hard drive that plays back video in real time.

This business model is a dancing bear type of deal...it's amazing that the bear can dance at all, let alone well. Eventually, this stuff will get standardized enough that the price will fall to a profitable level and all of this subscription B.S. will fall to the wayside.

Tivo could market itself alot better.

[kstumpf]

One of Tivo's problems, to me, is that they really don't have any clue how to market themselves. Most people I know have heard of Tivo, but think its just a VCR with a hard disk. Once people see what Tivo can really do, theyre floored. Obviously, Tivo needs to do a better job of showing people what they can do.

They don't need commercials that say "Tivo will change the way you watch TV", they need commercials that show the thing in action.

I just ordered a Tivo-capable DirecTV receiver yesterday. I got the receiver for $197 through DirecTV, and the installation and dual-LNB dish are free.

Statistics!

[tchdab1]

More U.S outhouses have moons on the door than copies of AdAge in them.

I have a question about Tivo/PVRs...

[krinsh]

that I hope gets answered before someone mods it down:

I have digital cable (cheaper than regular cable since we get the cable internet too). Of course, 2 days before I get the job two hours from home we decide to spend $2 more for the 'whole shebang' - all the extra 'premium' channels and whatnot - which I just got for the anime' on the Action network.

My question is am I going to be able to set this thing up to record those channels (on the scheduler, not just by pressing "record this now!")? I know you can record your PPV if you wire the thing after the digital box and whatnot; but I don't do a lot of A/V stuff so I'm curious. If it's in the PVR's manual; just let me know - it's the only thing I am getting for Christmas this year so I'd like to know what I'm getting into...!

Re:I have a question about Tivo/PVRs...

[tfoss]

Simple answer, yes. Only possible issue is if your digital cable box is rare or whacked.

-Ted

Re:I have a question about Tivo/PVRs...

[krinsh]

Thanks tfos that will be something for me to play with come this holiday.

"If you don't have a Tivo you don't understand."

[raygundan]

You are absolutely right about that. Like the half million posters who have pointed out that the Tivo isn't much better than a VCR, can't save stuff forever, and can't loan shows to your friends-- I didn't think they were worth the price at all, and had no intention of spending money on one.

Then I put my name into a drawing a couple of years ago on a whim and won a 14-hour Tivo, which they promptly shipped to my house.

I didn't even have cable TV.

Two weeks later, I was hooked. I have tried and tried to explain how useful, intuitive, time-saving, choice-expanding, and powerful these things are to people, but it doesn't work. Nobody wants one until they've had a chance to fiddle with mine in person for an hour or so, and then they end up buying one. As an example, at the company I am currently consulting for, everyone with a cubicle adjacent to mine has purchased one since I started here a month back, and it's spreading to the next ones.

Tivo has their marketing work cut out for them. Personally, I think they should have more of these giveaways with their old stock-- I'll bet every one of the old 14-hour units they gave away in that contest has come back 10-fold in new customers.

I realize that no one else is going to believe me either, but I hope that somebody will read this and give one an extended test-drive before they decide they're not worth it. Also worth noting-- Tivos have the highest girlfriend-approval rating of any piece of home-theatre equipment you can acquire. One of the guys in the adjacent cubes didn't think his wife would let him buy one, but he borrowed one to show her, and she then insisted that he buy the largest one available.

Integrated PVRs == DRM!

[NewtonsLaw]

The biggest problem with integrating the PVR into TV sets is that you can almost guarantee such devices will include powerful DRM capabilities.

As I pointed out in my daily column, the arrival of totally digital TV will see us relinquishing control of our VCR and television set to broadcasters.

If Fox, CBS, NBC or whoever don't want you to record a program, they'll simply enable and disable that function at will -- the button on your remote simply won't work unless they allow it.

Remember who makes many of the TV sets we buy -- Sony and many others who are also content creators with a vested interest in protecting and limiting your ability to copy their intellectual property.

If the PVR is integral to your TV set then it becomes a much harder task to circumvent or ignore any of the draconian DRM that broadcasters might decide to inflict on us.

Oh sure, there'll eventually be a few mod-chips available to help in this process -- but the stand-alone PVR manufactured by indviduals or "offshore" companies who care more about market share than enforcing DRM will be a more common option.

Re:Some cable companies are rolling their own

[jedidiah]

You don't have to worry about the HD lasting forever. You can buy a 3rd party replacement HD when the original goes belly up. A motherboard failure might be an issue though...

Numbers

[Mignon]

I think the author of this article should be a little more careful when throwing numbers around. According to the AdAge article, More U.S. homes have outhouses (671,000) than TiVos (504,000 to 514,000).

According to Crain Communication, AdAge has a circulation of 70,900 paid subscribers.

I'd be more worried about the future of AdAge than of TiVo.

Price? What did VCRs cost?

[fmaxwell]

In fact, I don't personally know of any one who owns either one.

I know several people that do. So much for anecdotal evidence.

I think the reason is simply price. I would love to be able to use the features of these 2 products, pause live tv, skip commericals on playback, very easy recording of tv shows. But the truth is, this type of convenience is not worth the $400, $500, $600, or more that they charge for the unit. That's in addition to the monthly fee.

First, a 60 hour TiVo unit is $300 at Best Buy (after $50 rebate). Second, for years, VCRs cost more than a TiVo does now and they constantly grew in popularity for time-shifting television shows -- despite being less convenient, less reliable, having a much smaller capacity, and producing video of lower quality.

For approximately the same amount of money, I can take my whole family camping every weekend thru the summer and have a lot more fun!

So why not do both. And when you come home from your camping trips, the shows you enjoy will be waiting for you.

I will never understand how people prioritize things. I remember talking to someone who is a smoker, with a habit that probably costs him around $2,000 per year, and he told me that TiVo was too expensive. I see other people who spend a fortune for large projection televisions and then channel surf for hours desperately looking for something to watch -- rather than just buying a TiVo and watching what they want when they want to. Why would someone sit through ten minutes of commercials in every hour of programming that they see. Isn't their time worth anything to them? And the purpose of TV is to entertain. Commercials and an inability to watch what I want when I want detract from the entertainment value.

In closing, I think that it's a good deal for the money.

What is the projected lifetime of the Tivo HD?

[swb]

I'm on the cusp of buying one, but what's holding me back is the monthly service fee. I know I can buy a box lifetime subscription, but the box has to last at *least* two years for this to be worthwhile.

My biggest worry is the HDD going south. Yes, I know I can replace it, although I'd rather not have to (added cost, complexity, etc).

I'm suspecting that I'd use the Tivo for more of a smart VCR (season pass, wish list) than for the pause-live-tv functions.

Re:What is the projected lifetime of the Tivo HD?

[mosch]

the lifetime subscription extends to a repaired version of the same unit.

back in the days when TiVos were a little bit hit or miss I had one go south on me within the first week, and there was no problem getting the lifetime subscription I had purchased transferred to the replacement unit. It seems that TiVo is pretty fair about these things.

Re:What is the projected lifetime of the Tivo HD?

[swb]

I'm not (really) worried about them not honoring a repaired unit, but I'm worried about my total out of pocket for Tivo going beyond the $600 it already will be for the service and the device within at least two years.

It's a neat service and a neat device, but a blown HDD could push it into $1k land total real fast..

Re:What is the projected lifetime of the Tivo HD?

[jedidiah]

Actually, a blown drive would end up being a significant enhancement. Besides, if you're that worried about the hardware failing just do the month-to-month TiVo service instead. Then you don't have hundreds of $$$ sunk into a service you can't use anymore.

Plus, a drive replacement is only going to be expensive if you get it ready made. Otherwise, the drive replacement could be dirt cheap.

This is exactly right.

[tlambert]

This is exactly right.

By doing this, they are attempting to take the natural market for VCR's as durable goods, and convert them to a subscription-based market, when the people making up the market really don't want to be converted.

The reason this will not fail with the satellite and cable boxes is that, when the digital video recorder is integrated there, the incremental value can be cost-amortized over an existing subscription model: it's an already tolerant market, and the incremental value of the recorder will end up raising overall costs, as it becomes a feature checkbox item between competing service providers.

A similar problem exists for Hotmail: their "captive audience" for their up-sell attempts consists entirely of "the set of people who will not pay money for web email". I expect Hotmail to stay around for the ulterior motives ("Got a Hotmail login? Then you've got a Microsoft Passport!"), but I don't ever expect it to be a money maker instead of a loss-leader.

Maybe an example more apropo this forum would be the Microsoft attempt to convert OS users to a su
scription model (also doomed to failure, unless they can leverage their monopoly to force the change... and it may -- thankfully -- be to late for that).

-- Terry

"Infrastructure" my arse; it's a VCR.

[tlambert]

"Infrastructure" my arse; it's a VCR.

Just because you *can* tie it into a subscription service that forces ads down your throat doesn't mean you *should*.

If they just sell it as "a better VCR", they would be fine.

Yeah, the "TV Guide" feature is nice. But I have lived this long with my analog VCR without that feature, I'm probably going to be able to survive until Thursday.

Most likely, TiVO will die, when DVD-RW replaces VCRs, while TiVO is futzing around trying to generate a revenue stream other than "unit sales".

Remember VOIP? Do you own an IP Telephone? No? But you're a *nerd*! If a *nerd* won't buy one, what chance have you got to sell it to people with lives!?!

Let's try a point of view experiment:

You're a small business; you're in the market for a new PBX, because you've outgrown your old one, or you want a couple of features that your business needs to improve.

Do you buy into IP telephony?

Or would you buy a "digital PBX" instead?

Surprise! They're the same thing, only in the second case, I'm not trying to sell you end-to-end service to endpoints that don't exist yet... I'm just setting you up to sell that later, when they do.

-- Terry

Re:"Infrastructure" my arse; it's a VCR.

[Deven]

"Infrastructure" my arse; it's a VCR.

They outsource the dialups to UUnet, but it's still a costly infrastruction that needs to be paid for.

As for the "it's a VCR" comment, that's exactly the misconception that makes it difficult to market the TiVo. TiVo owners know better; prospective customers usually do not. That's why the market penetration has been relatively slow, moreso than the subscription costs.

Just because you *can* tie it into a subscription service that forces ads down your throat doesn't mean you *should*.

The alternative is to build all the costs in upfront, as ReplayTV did, which would drive up the sticker price several hundred dollars. Then we'd be hearing everyone bitching about how it costs too much...

If they just sell it as "a better VCR", they would be fine.

It's not just a "better VCR", and until you understand that, you'll never see the true value it provides. For several years, I considered it to just be a "better VCR". It sounded cool to have a digital VCR, especially based on Linux, but ultimately, it just didn't sell me. That's just not reason enough to buy it.

It took many conversations with a TiVo-owning friend over several weeks before I could truly understand what it was all about, at which point I realized this wasn't just a better VCR. I really wanted it, once I understood, but it took 3 months to convince my wife to let me buy it -- in her mind it was just one more gadget to clutter the house. 2 months after we bought it, my wife was extolling the virtues of TiVo to everyone she could -- after she started out determined to hate the thing for invading her house!

By calling it a "better VCR", it's clear that you just don't get it. Neither did I at first. It's very hard to really get it, without actually living with a TiVo for a few weeks and getting used to it. Then you wonder how you ever lived without it.

The whole is much, much greater than the sum of its parts. On the surface, the TiVo just looks like a digital VCR with a built in program guide. However, it's the way these elements are smoothly integrated into one system that really makes the difference -- it fundamentally changes the way you watch TV.

You stop worrying about when your favorite shows are on; it just records them and you watch them at your convenience, not when the network executives dictate. If the phone rings, you just pause the TV and answer it, without missing anything. You never have to suffer the "200 channels but nothing's on" syndrome, because there's always something there worth watching. You stop watching live TV almost entirely, because it's more convenient to be able to fast-forward through commercials and watch your shows in any order.

TiVo changes your TV viewing habits in a way that VCRs never could. There's no hassle, no effort. You record everything you're interested in, not just those things that are so important that you mustn't miss them. It's the ultimate timeshifting device, and a VCR can't even come close.

It's truly a compelling product, which is why I'm sure it will be successful and profitable in the end. However, it's hard to convey the value in a few words -- you really have to experience it to fully understand what all the hype is about.

You know, after I bought a TiVo and came to understand what it was all about, those cryptic early TiVo commercials finally made sense to me. But they never did the job of making me want to buy the product. That took an evangelist who spent several hours convincing me, plus a lot of research on my own.

Yeah, the "TV Guide" feature is nice. But I have lived this long with my analog VCR without that feature, I'm probably going to be able to survive until Thursday.

Sure, you'll survive. Luckily for you, ignorance is bliss -- because you don't understand what TiVo is all about, you don't realize what you're missing. You don't realize the degree to which you've become a slave to your TV until you're released from that bondage. If you've never tasted freedom, it's no surprise that you aren't yearning for it.

Most likely, TiVO will die, when DVD-RW replaces VCRs, while TiVO is futzing around trying to generate a revenue stream other than "unit sales".

Nope, because what the TiVo does is completely different. Perhaps traditional VCRs will give way to DVD-RW someday, but not TiVo. They don't even belong in the same product category. TiVo was right to call it a "PVR", not a "digital VCR".

Remember VOIP? Do you own an IP Telephone? No? But you're a *nerd*! If a *nerd* won't buy one, what chance have you got to sell it to people with lives!?!

It's the people who have lives who benefit most from TiVo. This is a product that appeals to everyone that likes to watch TV... once they finally understand what it's all about. Getting them to understand is the hard part!

Your VOIP vs. digital PBX example is irrelevant. TiVo isn't trying to sell you a product that will be useless until everyone buys in. They're selling a product that can improve your quality of life, and it works now.

It's way more than a VCR

[McSpew]

Okay, repeat after me:

TiVo is to VCRs what microwave ovens are to campfires.

Does your campfire have a "popcorn" button? Does it automatically rotate your food? Does it have adjustable power levels? No? My microwave does.

• VCRs can't automatically record everything you watch into a 30 minute endless loop tape that you can rewind while watching live TV to see something and then have it continue to record live TV while you're doing that so you can fast-forward back to live action.
• VCRs can't figure out when your favorite TV show got preempted for a stupid self-congratulatory awards show.
• VCRs can't tell when your favorite show is a "very special" double-length episode.
• VCRs can't figure out when your favorite show got moved to a new night, or the network decided to show it twice a week because another show in another important time slot bombed and got canceled.
• VCRs can't search for and record anything that contains Pierce Brosnan, Rebecca Romijn-Stamos, John Wayne, Clint Eastwood, Arnold Schwarzenegger or Vin Diesel.
• VCRs can't search for and record anything you want about SCUBA diving, cooking, auto repair or whatever.
• VCRs can't automatically find you a blank space on a tape when it's time to record something.
• VCRs can't allow you to start watching a show they're already recording from the beginning before they're done recording it.
• VCRs can't automatically erase old tapes when you need the space to record a new show.
• VCRs can't be told not to record re-runs.
• VCRs don't have fast-forward overshoot compensation.

Well, that's about all I can think of off the top of my head. Maybe somebody else would like to pick up the clue bat and administer some more clue to you.

Re:Price? What did VCRs cost?

[fmaxwell]

They grew in popularity when the price dropped. Even at $300, it's still lots more expensive than a vcr.

I maintain a collection of magazines that goes back several decades. I just grabbed the Feb. 1990 issue of Stereo Review and went to the 6th Avenue Electronics ad and looked up a few VCR prices for low to mid-line VCRs:

Panasonic PV-4960: $416
JVC HRD-620U: $316
JVC HRD-840U: $466
Mitusbishi HS-51U: $496
Sony SLV-353: $396

VCRs were damned popular by 1990, so I think that blows your argument about the price being too high out of the water.

Being able to automatically skip commercials versus pressing a fast forward button is not worth the difference in price to me, and apparently to lots of other people as well

It's obvious that you don't understand what TiVo does. Here are some challenges:

1. Go on vacation for a couple of weeks and set up your VCR to record 10 hours or more of video in your absence.
2. Using your VCR, watch live TV, get a phone call, pause the TV, and then continue watching the show after you hang up five minutes later.
3. Set up your VCR so that it only records first run episodes of your favorite shows -- no repeats.
4. Program your VCR so that it will record the next showing of Apollo 13, regardless of the channel, date, or time that it comes on.
5. Program your VCR to record any television program that has the word "NASA" in its description.

Comparing TiVo to a VCR is like comparing a Big Wheel is to a Mercedes.

Because it would then cost twice as much! For twice as much, I could take my kids to Disney World for a weekend. If I asked my kids if they want a fancy vcr or a trip to Disney World, what do you think they would pick?

Your kids might prefer cake to broccoli if given the choice. That's why you don't give them that choice. If I had kids, I would rather that they always have a selection of quality programming from The Discovery Channel, The History Channel, and National Geographic than that they spend a weekend immersed in the crass commercialization of Disney World. I would rather that they be able to skip commercials rather than be a captive audience for Mattel, Toys-R-Us, and every other bottom-feeder that advertises during childrens' programs. As to the "fancy VCR" comment, I think you need to learn a bit more about what TiVo can do.

Most people don't have unlimited funds or time.

$300 is not a lot of money to improve your family's quality of life. I used to spend that much on audio components when I was a kid working retail in the mall 20 years ago. And if your time is so limited, why would you be adverse to something that would save so much of it?

Most people spend their excess money and time on activites that are fun for them. You seem to be a person that would give TV a high "fun factor" rating and are willing to spend lots of your excess money and time persuing this "hobby".

Quite the opposite. I want to spend less time watching TV and, when I do watch, have play-on-demand, quality programming available. I do not want to spend my time "channel surfing", seeing whatever crap might happen to be on. I don't want to waste time watching commercials. Nor do I want to spend hours paging through the TV Guide, programming VCRs, and handling tapes.

And maybe that's the problem TiVo has: It's aimed at an audience that values their time and convenience more than does the average consumer.

"What about the CHILDREN?"

[fmaxwell]

Finally, I can think of little I would rather not do than camp with your family every weekend for the summer.

What child would not relish the thought of spending every weekend with his/her overly clingy parents in a tent? Think about the popularity he/she will enjoy after regaling the class about the every-weekend family camping trips! Imagine the fun they will have answering questions about "bad touching" when the suspicious social worker, alerted by the teacher, starts asking about the camping trips that were scheduled for every weekend of the summer.

Oh yes, a world of joy awaits these kids.

Its already happened at DirecTV

[gad_zuki!]

I have a dual tuner "directivo" with DirecTv and my Tivo has little or nothing to do with the current Tivo service. DT now sends the Tivo its programming schedule through a nightly broadcast instead of my Tivo calling uunet and downloading it. In fact, DT is now collecting the data Tivo would collect on me if I didn't opt-out. Yeah, I need to opt-out again, but that's a minor inconvienence. Not to mentiont I'm paying 5.95 a month for "Tivo" service while everyone else pays 13.95 (12.95?).

As others have pointed out, Tivo is a software company and its good software. As long as they don't price themselves out of this new market then they probably have a long and profitable life ahead of them. I'd pay extra for the TivOS and from what I've seen from the tuner boxes DT sells for its service they couldn't make a good, easy to navigate interface to save their lives.

What part of "a better VCR" didn't you understand?

[tlambert]

What part of "a better VCR" didn't you understand?

Yeah, it's a better VCR. So sell it as "a better VCR", instead of trying to pretend it's the next best thing to multilevel marketing for converting a one time sale into a continuing revnue stream (or, less politely, "boning people for money on a monthly basis").

Lets look at your list:

o Items 2,3,4,5,6, and 10 are "TV Guide features".
o Items 1,7,8,9,11 are "Digital VCR features".

So as far as "infrastructure" goes, you have... "a TV Guide web site". I'm sorry, but it just doesn't cost that much to provide a "TV Guide web site". Television stations would probably give you the information for free, just to get you to watch them, if you would only provide them a method (e.g. XML) and a way to use the same data for display purposes on the web site itself. Worst case, cut a deal with TVGuide.com.

TiVO's mistake is that they are trying to (to put it in IBM-ese or Microsoft-ese) "Establish [grunt!] an ongoing [grunt!] customer [grunt!] relationship [grunt!]" (I seem to have dropped my pen; can you bend over and pick it up so you can sign this service contract so you can actually use the hardware you thought you owned outright? Thanks...).

-- Terry

Re:Price? What did VCRs cost?

[fmaxwell]

Actually, I do. I also know what ReplayTV does.

Then why do you insist on focusing solely on the ability to skip commercials ("Being able to automatically skip commercials versus pressing a fast forward button is not worth the difference in price to me")?

I would also be willing to buy either one. Except, that price thing keeps getting in the way...

I could better understand that when you thought that TiVos were "$400, $500, $600", but they are $300 for a brand-new 60 hour unit (and a lot less for a used one). As I said before, I used to spend that much for stereo components in 1979 when I was a teenager working in a retail store in a mall for minimum wage.

Actually, you were the one who began comparing the vcr to the Tivo/ReplayTV units. I just continued with it.

I compared prices of VCRs to TiVo units. I refuted your argument that TiVo units are overly expensive by showing that VCRs were significantly more expensive at the time that they soared in popularity -- despite being so much more limited.

Even if you had not said you had no kids, it would be very obvious from this comment. I am sure all the other parents in this forums got a lot of amusement from this.

While it may be obvious to you that I don't have kids, it is even more obvious to me that I'd do a better job raising kids than you do -- despite your sanctimonous attitude of superiority.

Just try making a 7-year-old kid sit thru documentarys[sic] on these 3 channnels. Then tell the kid, he/she can never watch cartoons. Next explain to this child why Disney World is an evil empire and he/ she will never go there. Good Luck!.

You seem to feel that there are two extremes between which a parent must choose:

1. Indulge your child's every whim
2. Refuse to let them ever do anything that they want while forcing them to watch documentaries aimed at adults

Were you even aware that The Discovery Channel produces Discovery Kids aimed at children? Did you know that National Geographic produces educational shows for kids? Did you know that The History Channel has many shows appropriate for children? Or were you at an amusement park stuffing cotton candy into your kid when those shows were on? I never went to Disney World and never wanted to. My parents took me places like The Smithsonian Air & Space Museum and Natural History Museum. They bought me books about science. When I was in elementary school, I was excited about the Apollo missions and put together a scrapbook of newspaper clippings about them. I remember the excitement of getting a microscope, telescope, and electronics set -- in addition to the now long-forgotten plastic toys. I was more interested in dinosaurs and rockets than in seeing some adult dressed up as an 8-foot tall mouse. (And I did not claim that children should never watch cartoons. In fact, I pointed out that a TiVo could let them skip the myriad ads aimed at children during such shows.)

There is more to raising a child than amusing them. Part of a parent's responsibility is to educate their children and nurture interests in science, history, and the arts. There is a balance one must strike between entertaining the child and educating them. If you can't afford a TiVo and a trip to Disney World, then buy the TiVo and take the kid to a local carnival. Your child will benefit much more from year-round access to intelligent, educational kids' shows than from a vacation to Disney World.

You're right. However, my family's quality of life is not related in any way to the quality of TV viewing we do.

That's very sad. With all of the intelligent, high-quality, entertaining, and educational programming available, it's really a shame that you'd sooner take your kids to Disney World. If your attitude is commonplace, it would explain a lot about falling science test scores.

My time is too precious to channel surf through infomercials, soap operas, and Spanish-language game shows. I don't want to waste my time watching commercials. I do not want to have to choose between taking a phone call or watching a program that I want to see. When I take time to watch TV, I want to choose a quality program that the TiVo has recorded rather than see whatever dreck happens to be on at that time. I don't want to waste my time programming VCRs, swapping tapes, labelling them, reading television guides, and all of that other pre-TiVo idiocy. Technology is there to improve my life and save my time and I'm glad to let it do so.

Re:Price? What did VCRs cost?

[fmaxwell]

You seem to be really upset.

Not really. Just a little annoyed.

My original comment was related to why Tvio and ReplayTV do not have market penetration. My opinion was that the price is too high.

And I said that it was not, showing that VCRs, despite their more limited features, had better market penetration at higher price points. I also pointed out that your estimates of the price for a TiVo unit were between 33% and 100% higher than the actual price. Rather than address that, you elected to make comments about your perceptions of my lifestyle claiming that I "spend lots of [my] excess money and time" watching TV.

In response, you have attacked me, the way I raise my kids, the way I spend my free time

Please. You attacked me with claims that "TV watching" was some all-consuming "hobby" for me. You implied that I was a dolt who did nothing but sit around watching TV all day and that you were somehow morally and intellectually superior because of your wholesome family activities. You then went on to proclaim how laughable it was for me to suggest sitting down with a child and watching an educational program (rather than taking them to Disney World).

You will also note that I became decidedly mor "hostile" after you decided to mark me as a "foe" for daring to disagree with you.

and (in another post) insinuated that the only reason I take my kids camping is for incestious purposes.

That is untrue. In my mean-spirited brand of humor, I suggested that a school counselor might become suspicious of "bad touching" if a family camped together every single weekend. I never once claimed or implied that you were actually engaged in any type of sexual behavior with your child.

Maybe you should take the rest of the day off?

You'll be happy to know that I have nothing at all scheduled for the day. So we can spend quality time together!

Remember, God loves you.

So, you don't think I'm on his Slashdot foe list?

I guess they'll "brilliantly" go bankrupt...

[tlambert]

I guess they'll "brilliantly" go bankrupt, then, from selling something that's so much not what people to expect it to be that it have an over 3 month sales cycle (e.g. your wife).

Look; without the umbilical back to them through UUnet dialup, what functionality do you lose?

You're obviously an early adopter, despite needing the purchase approval to buy the thing. Your wife probably "saves" you from a lot of new technology. But as an early adopter, you probably also have an Internet connection and don't need a seperate umbilical.

Your claims are also a little grandiose... in fact, you can't record everything; you are limited in the number of simultaneous channels by the number of tuners you have available.

Rather than positioning the thing as a product they want to sell to consumers, they need to position it as one that consumers want to buy.

Large sales do not come from "push", they come from creating "pull" in the market.

Maybe TiVO should think about hiring Guy Kawasaki as a marketing consultant: his ideas in this area worked for Apple.

-- Terry

Re:I guess they'll "brilliantly" go bankrupt...

[Deven]

I guess they'll "brilliantly" go bankrupt, then, from selling something that's so much not what people to expect it to be that it have an over 3 month sales cycle (e.g. your wife).

My wife is probably not representative of the market as a whole. I already have so much electronic equipment in the house that she tends to be very opposed to introducing more into the house, since it's just clutter to her. She hated the idea of the TiVo because it represented just that much more clutter in the house.

Once she got used to having it, she loves it, and wonders how we ever get along without it. When a product can win over someone who starts out dead set against it, that's a pretty strong endorsement.

Put another way, TiVo's Wife Acceptance Factor (WAF) is quite high -- once they get it.

Look; without the umbilical back to them through UUnet dialup, what functionality do you lose?

In principle, the DirecTV model could function indefinitely from the satellite alone. The standalone would quickly run out of guide data.

However, in practice, the software has a builtin time bomb to disable most of the advanced features if too much time passes without reaching TiVo's servers. (Something like a month or three.) The older 1.x standalone models could operate in a limited-functionality mode with manual recordings without service, which was optional. Newer models require the service, and say so on the box.

Should TiVo collapse as a company, representatives have promised that they would release a magic code to disable that authorization check to enable the TiVo's to continue to function without being able to reach the TiVo service. (The standalone models would still run out of guide data, but someone would probably step up to feed it data another way.) I believe TiVo would probably follow through on this promise if the death of the company were imminent.

You're obviously an early adopter, despite needing the purchase approval to buy the thing. Your wife probably "saves" you from a lot of new technology. But as an early adopter, you probably also have an Internet connection and don't need a seperate umbilical.

I'm not one of the earliest adopters. Yes, I have an Internet connection (I've been using the Internet for 15 years), DirecTV, TiVo, and a DVD player. However, each of these technologies was available for years before I got around to buying it. I tend to be ahead of the mainstream, but I usually wait to see how badly the real early adopters get burned before buying in myself.

Your claims are also a little grandiose... in fact, you can't record everything; you are limited in the number of simultaneous channels by the number of tuners you have available.

What I said was that you "record everything you're interested in", not that you record every channel. Obviously, the number of tuners limits the number of overlapping programs you can record, but you can always buy additional TiVo units to increase the capacity. I have 2 DirecTV units, with 4 tuners between them. That's usually enough for me, and I record many shows. For some people, one tuner would be sufficient. It depends on the person.

Don't distort my words. I never said "record everything" in an unqualified manner like that. I meant that you tend to end up recording most of the programs that you watch, rather than watching most programs live and recording a few, as people do with VCR's. It's a fundamental difference in the way you approach television.

Rather than positioning the thing as a product they want to sell to consumers, they need to position it as one that consumers want to buy.

Well, they've tried. But it's not enough to have the right message (you want this, for all these reasons). For marketing to be effective, it must be able to communicate that message to prospective customers. TiVo actually has a very compelling message that really resonates with people, but it seems to be damn near impossible to communicate that message successfully with traditional marketing techniques. The people who "get" the ads are the ones who've already gotten the message, not the ones they need to reach yet.

Large sales do not come from "push", they come from creating "pull" in the market.

Because of the difficulting communicating their message, this won't happen overnight. However, it is happening, through word-of-mouth advertising mostly. Eventually, after hearing their friends rave about their TiVo's long enough, people will tend to decide that there must be something to this TiVo thing that they're just missing (which is true) and give it a try. Then they become hooked and start raving to their friends.

Ultimately, this is very effective, but it's also slow right now. It takes a long time to convince people still because relatively few people are talking about it, and it seems to have marginal value, on the surface. However, someday it will reach a critical mass where "everyone" seems to be talking about TiVo, and buying PVR's, and suddenly the demand will explode because it'll be the new trendy thing, like DVD players are now.

Maybe TiVO should think about hiring Guy Kawasaki as a marketing consultant: his ideas in this area worked for Apple.

I don't know. I'm not familiar with him.

If I were running TiVo, I'd stop running TV ads entirely now. Their brand name is sufficiently known to be nearly synonymous with the PVR industry, almost dangerously so. (Think Kleenex or Xerox.) Instead, they should team up with DirecTV to promote TiVo and DirecTV together by giving away as many DirecTV receivers with TiVo as possible to many celebrities, pundits, reporters, TV personalities, etc. Give them the boxes and the service for free. They'll end up talking about it, and it will be worth more to them than all the TV ads combined. (They're already doing this to some degree, but they could probably do a lot more if they used the money that would otherwise would be spent on traditional advertising...)

Basically, TiVo is an excellent product with a tremendously satisfied, loyal, enthusiastic and vocal user base, and a compelling message that resonates strongly with most people, once they finally get it. Word-of-mouth advertising will take care of the rest. It's only a matter of time.

The only real danger is that TiVo's cash could run out before they reach a cashflow breakeven point -- but they've done a remarkable job of cutting their costs, increasing their revenues, and finding additional investors, despite the state of tech stocks in the last 2 years. They've survived this long, and I believe they'll make it to the breakeven point. This issue should be resolved in the next year or two, one way or the other.

Assuming TiVo survives as a company, I believe they'll be very profitable down the road, even if that means 10-20 years from now. That's okay, I have faith in them. Meanwhile, I'll buy as much of their stock as I can, while it's still fairly cheap...

TiVO *still* doesn't "get it"

[tlambert]

Look.

I understand that you are an enthusiatic fan of the company, but that's not going to save them.

The fact that you have a lot of equipment already, and claim you aren't an early adopter, is part of what makes you an early adopter. When you refer to "Wife Acceptance Factor", then you are an early adopter.

"Promise to release a magic code"

This is totally bogus. I'm sorry to be blunt, but it is. The idea that they will be solvent enough to run a server that can be contacted for warehoused units which are sold 3 years down the road, well, that's just not going to happen.

The main problem is that this is teathered technology, and teathered technology sucks: it has value only so long as the company that built it remains actively solvent.

Look at what happened to all the Riccochet users; there's still a repeater near my house, still drawing power from the municipal street-lighting grid, because no one came out to take the thing down. My taxes are paying for it to suck electricit, and not provide any useful service to anyone, because there's an umbilical involved.

I find it incredibly alarming that there is public acceptance of technological artifacts that turn into lumps of junk when their mothership crashes, and which don't even have the decency to rot away soon after they fall into disuse.

I'd have a lot more confidence in "the TiVO answer" to the problem if it automatically went into that mode after a prolonged period of bing unable to contact the mothership, and it took an action by the user to get it to contact the mothership again, later. Instead, it's another "beamed power" device, which quits functioning entirely.

"record anything you're interested in"

This implies at least two tuners, and probably three. Television programming is intentionally adversarial between highly rated shows; first-run episodes of "The Practice" are never scheduled to run against "Carlton Sheets" or "Ron Popeil" infomercials: it just doesn't happen. The shows people want to watch are on in opposition to each other, and so are the shows people *don't* want to watch.

The technology has to be aware of the environment in which it operates; largely, it isn't.

"TiVO has a very compelling message"

A 'very compelling message' is one which you do not have to work to communicate, because your customers will do the work for you.

Your argument in this regard is a "Build it, and they will come" argument. It's the classical bogus technologist argument that thinks if you build something cool, everyone will want it. In reality, they've built something with a high "geek factor", which fails to be a "whole product".

The deficiencies in the product that they've addressed so far in order to *try* to make it into a whole product, are all based on the idea of additional revenue... that they are offering a service, which has value, instead of making up for a deficiency in the product model that makes the product unusable without it.

Then they try to go to a subscription model, in order to turn the pain into a recurring revenue stream, to make their investors happy, instead of trying to make their customers into evangelists.

Here is the proof in the pudding: how many people have purchsed a TiVO due solely to your wife's evangelism of the product? I.e. she did not have an early adopter maniac (e.g. you) propping up her argument to the person.

I'm willing to bet that this number is zero, or that your wife is abnormally tolerant of new things, having been immunized by you.

As far as "they just need to find their market" goes... they've had 5 years to do that, and they haven't done it yet.

The bottom line is that they need to change what they are selling.

I've been in the same boat, working for a company that wasn't willing to change what they were selling, and which then tried to milk a subscription model as a revenue source, and all the while, doing it with an incomplete product. It's hard to watch someone else make the same mistake.

-- Terry

Re:TiVO *still* doesn't "get it"

[Deven]

I understand that you are an enthusiatic fan of the company, but that's not going to save them.

Why should it? I'm just one customer/stockholder. I never claimed that I would be their salvation.

The fact that you have a lot of equipment already, and claim you aren't an early adopter, is part of what makes you an early adopter. When you refer to "Wife Acceptance Factor", then you are an early adopter.

I didn't deny being an early adopter. What I said was that I'm not one of the earliest adopters. Yes, compared to the mainstream, I'm an early adopter in computers, electronics and technology. However, there are plenty of really early adopters who jump long before I'm willing to. So yes, you could call me an early adopter, but it's all relative. Someone I consider a "real" early adopter jumps on new technologies almost immediately, instead of waiting for years as I often do. (Granted, sometimes I wait so long mostly for financial reasons.) You could call me a "late early adopter", I guess. I'm earlier than the mainstream, but late among early adopters.

And regardless of where the "Wife Acceptance Factor" terminology originates (I think I picked it up from Slashdot, actually), I believe that it represents (to some degree) a metric of mainstream acceptability, as many geeks have wives with more mainstream viewpoints...

"Promise to release a magic code"

This is totally bogus. I'm sorry to be blunt, but it is. The idea that they will be solvent enough to run a server that can be contacted for warehoused units which are sold 3 years down the road, well, that's just not going to happen.

I'm not suggesting that they could continue to run a server after going under. I got the impression that the "magic code" was probably a top-secret backdoor code that could be entered by the user to disable the authorization checks. But that's just a guess. I don't really know.

Obviously, there's no certainty at all that such a promise would be carried out -- many things could change in the process of going bankrupt. Users might well be left out in the cold by the company, but I'm glad that they've at least said that they don't want that to happen to their customers.

Anyhow, I'm not too concerned about it. If TiVo fails and users are stuck, someone will jump in. Maybe it will be a hacker, finding another solution. (As I understand it, some of them know already how to do it.) Maybe it will be another company, charging for the same service (either reverse-engineered or purchased from a defunct TiVo's assets). With over half a million users already out there, someone will address the problem, if it should ever arise. I'm not willing to lose sleep over it.

The main problem is that this is teathered technology, and teathered technology sucks: it has value only so long as the company that built it remains actively solvent.

True enough. And I'm not thrilled with tethered technology either. I've accepted it as a "necessary evil" in this case. It's a calculated risk, just as buying a DirecTV receiver is. I'm just as tethered by DirecTV as TiVo. I can't readily switch to another satellite or cable provider; all my investment in DirecTV equipment would become useless. I'm not happy with this, but I've decided to overlook it.

I'd have a lot more confidence in "the TiVO answer" to the problem if it automatically went into that mode after a prolonged period of bing unable to contact the mothership, and it took an action by the user to get it to contact the mothership again, later. Instead, it's another "beamed power" device, which quits functioning entirely.

How realistic is that? It's trivial to create a "prolonged period of being unable to contact the mothership" -- leave the phone line unplugged. How could they get people to pay for their subscriptions if they could just wait long enough for the requirement to vanish on its own?

This implies at least two tuners, and probably three. Television programming is intentionally adversarial between highly rated shows; first-run episodes of "The Practice" are never scheduled to run against "Carlton Sheets" or "Ron Popeil" infomercials: it just doesn't happen. The shows people want to watch are on in opposition to each other, and so are the shows people *don't* want to watch.

I find this network practice reprehensible and shortsighted, but you're right, it's typical. But then, that's part of why I have two DirecTV receivers with TiVo. That gives me 4 tuners, which is enough to resolve most (but not all) conflicts. On the other hand, my coworker in the next cube loves Friends, but hardly watches anything else. For her, one tuner would be plenty. It all depends on your interests.

If I were running a network, I would run fewer shows (there's too much crap already), but show them several times a week -- probably once or twice in prime time, at least twice during the day, and a couple times in the middle of the night, including reruns from the previous week. Reruns on companion networks ("repurposing") also fits in nicely here. This is the sort of thing HBO does -- instead of trying to force viewers to pick which popular show to watch, give them ample opportunity to see all the ones they want. There was no reason to move Survivor to 8:00 PM on Thursday night to see if it could beat Friends.

I would also avoid moving shows around the schedule. Some of the most popular shows (like ER) have never moved from their timeslot, while others (Quantum Leap, Mad About You, and many others) were obviously hurt badly by schedule hopping. Of course, with my TiVo, I personally don't care much anymore. :-) Networks need to learn that people are creatures of habit, and a popular show doesn't drag viewers to another night like a leash. More often, it loses viewers and makes it very difficult for new viewers to find the show as well. How many ratings drops and cancellations were preceded by rampant schedule changes?

The technology has to be aware of the environment in which it operates; largely, it isn't.

I don't know what you mean by this.

A 'very compelling message' is one which you do not have to work to communicate, because your customers will do the work for you.

I'd argue that the customers are doing the work for TiVo, through word-of-mouth advertising. However, it's slow going. The message is compelling, but it's not easy to communicate. The only reason existing customers try so hard to communicate it anyhow is because it's so compelling. They want their friends and neighbors to benefit from the PVR as they do. But it takes a long time to convince people, at least right now. If the message wasn't so compelling, existing users would just give up and not worry about their friends missing out on this wonderful technology...

Your argument in this regard is a "Build it, and they will come" argument. It's the classical bogus technologist argument that thinks if you build something cool, everyone will want it. In reality, they've built something with a high "geek factor", which fails to be a "whole product".

In what way does it fail to be a "whole product"? What does that statement even mean?

The "geek factor" here is that it's digital, uses hard drives instead of videotapes, and runs on Linux. As a geek, I thought it was cool for those reasons, but that wasn't reason enough for me to buy it, unless I had money to burn to buy it as a cool geek toy.

I only decided to buy it after I finally understood the benefits it offered me as a television viewer, not as a geek. These benefits are of mainstream appeal, and very compelling. But they're very hard to communicate, because they sound like "cool geek toy" arguments to those who don't "get it". It's hard to really understand without experiencing it firsthand for a few weeks.

The deficiencies in the product that they've addressed so far in order to *try* to make it into a whole product, are all based on the idea of additional revenue... that they are offering a service, which has value, instead of making up for a deficiency in the product model that makes the product unusable without it.

I'd ascribe that to trying to address deficiencies in the marketing. As I've said, many times, the value of the product (or "service", whatever) is real and present, but very difficult to communicate. TiVo's marketing department has an unenviable task -- communicating a message which is nearly impossible to communicate. They try, but it's a steep uphill battle.

The product isn't lacking; it's just hard to market.

Then they try to go to a subscription model, in order to turn the pain into a recurring revenue stream, to make their investors happy, instead of trying to make their customers into evangelists.

Their subscription model wasn't a desperate attempt to recoup revenue from a failing product. They've used the model since day one. Moreover, they've always offered lifetime service, with a goal of having 50% of their customers sign up for lifetime service -- so some of their cash would be upfront, and some would be ongoing. They raised the price of the lifetime service from $200 to $250 because the option was too popular. About 60% were buying lifetime service, so they raised the price to try to bring it down to 50%.

It's true that they no longer offer lifetime service for DirecTV models, but I'm sure DirecTV insisted on discontinuing it. DirecTV has been taking a much more active role in their partnership; as I understand it, DirecTV just took over customer support completely and is now marketing the units as "DirecTV DVR" systems, dropping the TiVo brand name on the new Series 2 models...

Here is the proof in the pudding: how many people have purchsed a TiVO due solely to your wife's evangelism of the product? I.e. she did not have an early adopter maniac (e.g. you) propping up her argument to the person.

I don't know of any yet, but several of her friends, and even contractors working on the house, have taken a serious interest in TiVo, due to her evangelism alone. (It's possible that there have been some sales as a result; I wouldn't necessarily know.)

And keep in mind that even as an "early adopter maniac", it took (literally) weeks for a friend of mine with TiVo (another "early adopter maniac") to convince me to buy it. And I'd presumably be predisposed to buy into his arguments, right?

I'm willing to bet that this number is zero, or that your wife is abnormally tolerant of new things, having been immunized by you.

In other words, you refuse to consider the possibility that you're wrong. Either this piece of data would confirm your preconceived notions, or you've already got an excuse in mind for why it should be inapplicable.

If you really want to prove your point, why don't you go buy a TiVo (preferably a DirecTV model) somewhere with a 30-day return privilege? Keep it and use it for the 30 days. If it's not compelling, return it at the end of that time. Whether you keep it or not, you'll probably better understand the message that TiVo evangelists are trying to convey. And if you keep it, having argued so much against it, that would truly be evidence that TiVo's got something!

As far as "they just need to find their market" goes... they've had 5 years to do that, and they haven't done it yet.

What, now there's a time limit to establish a market? If the number of customers had levelled off, and was now dropping, I'd say you're right, that the market just isn't there or at least isn't a mainstream market. But that's not what's happening. TiVo's customer base continues to grow every year, and there's no sign of that growth abating. The market is there, even if market penetration is slow.

If they're successful, what does it matter if it's an overnight success or one built over the course of years? (I'd argue that the latter probably has more staying power anyhow -- overnight success sometimes becomes yesterday's fad.)

The bottom line is that they need to change what they are selling.

You certainly haven't justified this bold claim. They are selling something that works, and makes their customers very happy. That doesn't sound like a losing formula. No, it doesn't garner instant mainstream acceptance, but is that really indispensible?

I've been in the same boat, working for a company that wasn't willing to change what they were selling, and which then tried to milk a subscription model as a revenue source, and all the while, doing it with an incomplete product. It's hard to watch someone else make the same mistake.

If you want to convince me that TiVo has a half-assed product and is trying to compensate by squeezing customers for subscription revenue, you'll have to do better than this. I use the products every day, and you obviously don't. They work great. Yes, I can come up with ideas to improve them, but nothing's perfect. The product does everything they claim, and I don't really care whether they call it a "service". It works.

You can continue to argue from ignorance, but why should I give those arguments more weight than my own experience as an actual user of the product?

[P.S. If you stop using your +1 bonus, so will I. I'm not sure anyone else is still interested in reading this debate anyhow.]

Re:TiVo's problem (OT)

[erpbridge]

AAAAAHHHH!

I've seen SciFi westerns (Star Trek: Original Series had one call Spectre of the Gun, which was a re-creation of Showdown at OK Corrall.

I've seen Sci-Fi football (Starship Troopers had a football game in it, set about 150 years in the future.)

I've seen SciFi Elvis (Quantum Leap: Sam leapt into Elvis in one of the last few episodes.)

But never one that combined the three. Of course, Quantum Leap touched on each topic at least once (yes, Sam leapt into a football player once, and he played a Doc out on a ranch in the west once)