Razor Blade Games?
Oxygen99 writes "There's a story on the BBC News website regarding the financial impact on game developers of the next generation of consoles. The article states that while the cost of producing games increases exponentially as new technology comes online, consumer prices stay approximately the same, leading to an unsustainable financial environment for many small developers. With many small development teams already hurting from the crippling costs of development for the X-Box, GameCube and PlayStation 2, what happens when the X-Box2 or Playstation 3 arrives? Are the days of small scale game development over? Will we ever see a new Jeff Minter? Will the games industry go down the route of the razor manufacturers where consoles are almost given away with the games?"
When economic pressures like this get built up, that provides an opportunity for someone to deliver a solution to some of these problems that reduces cost and/or time of development. For example, rather than producing Hollywood-caliber graphics on a custom basis for each game, perhaps that function is better served by standalone companies that create characters and associated animations that game developers can license for use.
Bottom line is that the demand side will determine what happens here - if the market can sustain higher prices for games, the current trend could continue for a while. If a big-budget game flops dramatically, however, you'll see a restructuring of the process that could result in a major shakeout within the industry...
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Smaller shops will likely continue to innovate, especially in new markets like cell phones and PDAs, where compactness of code and short development cycles pay off quickly. You will not likely see Doom XXVIII on your Samsung NPH-3500 phone, but you might just see Bookworm coming soon.
Don't be fooled into thinking that consoles and PC are - forgive the pun - the only game in town.
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I see the game industry moving along much the same path as the movie industry did. Today, independent films are still made, movie enthusiasts support them, and they are a great way for individuals or small groups to get noticed and get on large projects that make real money.
I am hoping that moviegoers are getting saturated by the overly formulaic movies they're being given, and will shift the focus back to smaller budget films that are more original. But I don't see anything fundamentally wrong with the movie biz right now. For those that crave original, small-budget films, there's no shortage of them.
All video game consoles are sold at loss. The business is already exactly like the razor blade business.
In Soviet Russia, I ruled you
Just look at printers. You can purchase a new printer for nearly the same cost or sometimes LESS then purchasing new ink cart.
EA David Gardner -"... but the consumers have proven that actually what they want is fun."
To me this is good news for gamers. True, it will result in a lot of lowest common denominator crap. But this analogy suggests a lot of positive aspects as well. For one, I personally happen to like blockbuster movies, and I'm glad that the market is such that someone can justify spending $300 mio or so on the LOTR trilogy (to name just one example).
At the same time, there is space for the little guy in the film industry to some extent. Innovative filmmakers can still make a name for themselves on a superlow budget (e.g. Clerks. In my view this applies even more to the gaming world, where a clever idea can be a huge hit without requiring dozens of programmers and designers to implement (consider Tetris).
Anything that makes really stunning high-budget output possible is more than fine by me.
Peer Pressure
Should develop smaller games. For every Grand Theft Auto 3, there's a Tetris.
The Big Hollywood style productions can be handled by the huge companies, while the smaller companies can do innovative things like games that actually have gameplay value as opposed to eyecandy value.
Gameplay value is timeless and largely not driven by technology. If need be, license the high end graphics from someone else rather than reinvent the wheel. But someone should be working on making games playable, re-playable, and fun.
A prime area for small-time, moderate budget development? AI. *Good* AI, that learns and adapts, for example, is something I'd like to see. AI that gets lazy and complacent and forgets sometimes, for that human feel, and to prevent things from getting too difficult.
You see? You see? Your stupid minds! Stupid! Stupid!
things get bigger and more complex and so do the development environments. the big get bigger in this scenerio--for a while. there's almost always a new development--ie *nix--to bring things back to earth. in the end a good idea can overcome the cost of easy development.
!(^((ri)|(mp))aa$)
Why do video game prices have to go up because the the technology is improving? Computers have consistently become more complex, but their prices have been going down. The number of people playing video games is also going up quite rapidly, resulting in more customers for video game companies. Maybe they have to do more development, but that is the same for all new technologies. If video game companies are losing money, it's because of nothing but a crappy business model.
(I think that the answer to this factoid observation is self-evident, but I'll post it anyway.)
The costs of developing large-scale games only affects the developers of large-scale games. As noted abundantly by others, such games tend to fit certain well-defined genres: RTS, MMORPG, FPS, RPG... indeed, the whole reason we even have and know these acronyms is because the styles of games have become extraordinarily pigeonholed.
That's not necessarily a bad thing. Take Medal of Honor: Allied Assault - the game only works because gamers have been trained to go along with the scripting and accept the monolithic linearity of the missions. If you do, however, you get a pretty grand experience.
But the point is this: A few game niches have become so overproduced that independent developers can't hope to compete - but the rest of the market is wide open.
And what a wide-scale market that is! How many genres have barely been tapped, or not yet invented? How do you even classify something like Popcap's Insaniquarium? Or PaRappa the Rapper, or Dance Dance Revolution? Those are pretty easy games to design and develop, and they're fiercely fun. Window dressing is extra - but for these innovative games, window dressing is secondary to gameplay. (What a novel concept!)
Bottom line: Independent developers should not mimic Electronic Arts and try to compete in these highly stylized, overbudgeted affairs. But there's plenty of untapped gaming out there, just waiting for someone with a smidge of vision and a touch of imagination. Go get 'em, guys!
David Stein, Esq.
Computer over. Virus = very yes.
Oh, who am I kidding? Anything released to the console market without 3D graphics, genuine B-list actors providing the voiceovers, and 16.7 zillion colors is doomed to failure.
DecafJedi
DecafJedi
my weblog: apropos of something
rather than producing Hollywood-caliber graphics on a custom basis for each game, perhaps that function is better served by standalone companies that create characters and associated animations that game developers can license for use.
Licensing characters with animations? Movie license games are rarely[1] good games. Capcom and Virgin tried the licensed-character route in the 1990s, borrowing characters from cel-animated movies published by the company we love to hate. The games (such as Chip 'n Dale's Rescue Rangers, Aladdin, Pinocchio, The Lion King, etc) turned out way too one-dimensional to have any replay value. Or just read the reviews for Enter The Matrix.
[1] There is of course the occasional exception such as Goldeneye for Nintendo 64.
Will I retire or break 10K?
What is needed is for game developers to stop throwing money into the photorealistic hole. Anime is a perfectly acceptable graphic style designed for mass production. By reducing the amount of "detail" using artisitic license you can focus more on game play, scripts, and quality assurance.
"Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival."
--Dr.W.Edwards Deming
I've been programming for many many years on many different platforms, I'm an expert in C and x86 assembly and I've done a lot of stuff with OpenGL and a good amount with DirectX not to mention being proficient in just about any area of programming you could think of. The problem is that a game engine like DOOM 3 is not a stand-alone work. It is rather the evolution of the first DOOM engine through all the iterations of Quake. I could write the first DOOM engine. I could probably even write something like Quake 2. But as a small developer, I cannot possibly break into this market when I'm competing with people who are evolving and reusing code that they've had for years. They just keep making it a little better. I can't do that because I don't have years and years of succesful 3d projects to draw from and improve upon.
No small developer can jump 6 levels of technology to get to the current state-of-the-art and compete with large developing firms. Programming, like everything, is an iterative process; so as games get larger(code-size) and more complex with more and better technology packed into them, it will be harder and harder for small developers to break in the market. Most of them end up buying a decent 3d engine from someone else. And with faster graphics cards and games like Warcraft 3 and PlanetSide, all games are beginning to rely on evolved technology. A small developer's game (whether its an FPS or an RTS or an MMORPG) can't compete with the beauty and speed of a large company's engine that has been revised and rewritten and composed of a multitude of high speed algorithms and computing tricks that have been drawn from a large code base. Which relegates us all to the realm of shareware...or, on the bright side, perhaps open source community projects.
Those of us who are older may have a slightly different point of view though. The only games that I play regularly now are years old, Grand Prix Legends, Red Baron 3D, Age of Empires. Throw in a bit of replay of Grim Fandango. Not to mention the classics like Asteroids.
None of these require the latest screaming system to play, yet they all still represent the Best of Class.
I havn't purchased a game in years, not becasue of cost. Not because of lack of interest. Simply because I haven't been presented with a game superiour to those I already play.
It wouldn't take much to grab a few hundred more bucks out of my pocket, but the latest gee whiz bang twist to the same tired old formula isn't going to do it for me.
Give me games instead of technology and I'll buy them.
KFG
Look at the old Atari days.
More salient than you might think.
Atari's weakness was that it did not control the games publishers. There was no quality control, consumers were discouraged, and in the end the entire market suffered. When Nintendo and Sega started to reinvent the games console market the first thing they did was to strictly control who was publishing what for their systems.
My biggest problem with this change is that games are getting too short. If I don't finish a story-oriented game, the real reason is that the game has suddenly become extremely difficult for no good reason and frustrating, not because I lack the patience to finish it.
Solutions will arrive automatically. Thankfully we've already seen the start of this via Middleware - software by a third party which is hired/loaned and used for development. PS2 and Xbox have successfully helped build an entire middleware community and a new source of revenue. Now small bedroom programmers can either be responsible for middleware or the "end game" software.
Let us not lament- Sony is the current market leader and also happens to be the only manufacterer who opened up their console for easy programming (anyone remember the Sony Yazoo (or whatever it was called) for the PSX - a home development system) and is also selling Linux kits without a free cease and desist letter to anyone who uses linux on their PSX.
There's still space out there for bedroom developers, it's just that bedroom developers are changing!
Frogmanalien
The only thing that saves us from the bureaucracy is its inefficiency (Eugene McCarthy)
One thing I am noticing is that games today are, getting way too complex with regards to graphics, geometry, lighting, etc. It takes a TON of time and money to design, build, texture, test, and finalize these worlds. "What's your point you ask?" - Its this: That the gameplay isn't THAT much different today than it was say 5 years ago (exept with AI development), and quite frankly I don't play the game for the eye candy (although that enhances my experience while playing).
Game enjoyment is all about challenge, goal accomplishment, and interaction with AI in the computer. These are paramount elements, and these costs can be normalized to fairly predictable levels. The eye candy is on the list but not that near the top for me, and yet game developers sink huge dollars into this.
I really don't "enjoy" Quake III or UnrealTournament2003 any more than Quake II or UnrealTournament1999 except where BOT AI is concerned. This is because the GAMEPLAY has improved because of AI development, not because a building is made of 3000 objects instead of 500.
Does anyone else feel this way??
Is the juice worth the sqeeze?
Ok, so I'm having a large reaction to what I feel is a change in the balance of power.
1. It started with small unknown developers writing games for the PC.
2. The small unknown developers become giants.
3. The consoles allow the giants to sell more games to people who don't understand computers.
4. The giant can no longer afford to develop PC games because they need to put all their development into consoles.
5. Nobody buys anything but consoles and console games because that is the only thing the developers program for.
The end...PC gaming DOA.
What I generally dislike about consoles...
1. Doesn't allow mouse control.
2. Doesn't have high-resolution > 1024x768. And even if it did, that doesn't mean much to people who don't have HDTV.
3. You are locked into the game...no modding.
4. You can't always freely connect with other large groups over the net without using a system that was developed to monitor your gameplay...like Microsoft's.
5. How about setting up a 32 player server with a console?
6. Ever try to backup your console game CD?
7. Can you upgrade you console system without throwing out the entire box?
8. Why do you say consoles are easier? PC game interfaces are exactly the same (on screen configuration and controls)?
9. Consoles are sold separately from PCs. An investment in a console is not an investment in my PC. Why would I do that?
The end.
++more.
Nintendo should be confronting this by going around to independent developers that look good and dropping a development kit in their laps. The idea that they attach strings to funding for already-sequelled games as long as they crank them out quick is stupid, and if that's Nintendo's idea of innovation the GameCube will be the last Nintendo system I ever buy.
Now, if they had made it more of an RPG, with an action component
Hmmm... possibly like the Mana engine... smells good.
and extended the universe with a new story, THEN it might have been interesting.
For one thing, Disney might have dictated terms to Virgin that prohibited writing new story lines because any new story lines might conflict with the direction Disney wanted to take the characters in The Lion King II: Simba's Pride.
Better would have been to do like Rare did in Goldeneye for N64: missions inspired by the movie, with more depth in each mission than was explored in the movie, and a couple extra missions that might as well have been "deleted scenes" in the movie. Completely linear levels where the player dies instantly if he leaves the track, such as if he jumps off the ostrich in the "Can't Wait to Be King" mission of The Lion King for Super NES, are a Bad Thing.
Will I retire or break 10K?
I think garage developers are far from finished.
There's a gigantic mass of untapped territory out there. All it takes is creativity. As John Carmack himself mentioned, big companies have trouble breaking away from molds. They produce "lock-in" conditions for themselves, being forced to run the same old games and formulae time and time again.
Games, like anything else, exist on a fitness landscape. Games like the shooters are searching for pinnacles, ever higher, in one very narrow area.
If id software broke away from their formula and tried something new, they'd then be duking it out with smaller developers, or houses with some money but without a huge popular name, like CDV/Fireglow (Divine Divinity, Sudden Strike)
Much of the bottleneck for small developers is art. Textures and models. These are hard to do, even for talented and skilled specialist artists.
I think a solution here is one that's fallen almost totally by the wayside in the last few years, and that's proceduralism. In other words, draw textures and models, as much as possible, procedurally-- as the insightful guy above said, parametric models are starting, and I think that's a way of coding that's going to revolutionize the way things are done.
Also, buildings, dungeons, plants, city maps... all these things can be done as L-systems or as other types of grammars. It's not impossible, it just takes a little bit "more work" right up front, and the things get tons easier. Like so many other programming tasks. And then you have almost endless replay, until you see to the bottom of what the system can do.
Id and Blizzard may not be around forever. They may be the SirTechs and the Broderbunds and the Beagle Brothers of today, to be supplanted tomorrow by hungrier smaller companies.
Intolerance for ambiguity is the mark of the authoritarian personality.
They can't afford to produce for the console? Well, earn your stripes in the world of pc games. Once you can make money there, you can license the stuff for the consoles and move on.
This really doesn't seem like the end of the world.
"it is not in anybodies interest in the market for amateurs to flood the market with sub-standard crap."
Heaven forbid the market makes that decision. I feel better knowing Sony saves me the thinking.
I think you forgetting a great market that moved away from this kind of mentality and has not collapsed under a pile of crap games: the pc game market. Sure, they have crap games out there. But they don't survive. The good games become popular and the companies that make them produce more games. The setup of the pc game market does not prevent a 15 year old super coding genious from producing the Next Great Thing in his basement while still allowing for large companies like Blizzard et. al. to produce greate and not so greate games in mass. The console world can take a page from the pc game market and let the consumers decide what is a good game and what is a bad game.
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