Slashdot Mirror


Satellites Show That Earth Has a Fever

Roland Piquepaille writes "A recent study from NASA says that satellites are acting as thermometers in space. Contrary to meteorological ground stations which measure the air temperature around two meters above the ground, satellites can accurately measure the temperature of the Earth's skin. And this new study, which covers the 18-year period going from 1981 to 1998, shows that the Earth's temperature is rising 0.43C per decade instead of the O.34C found by previous methods. Unfortunately for us, if satellites can more precisely measure this rise of the Earth's temperature, they cannot cure this fever. This overview contains more details and a spectacular image showing the European heat wave of the summer of 2003."

114 of 596 comments (clear)

  1. So? by hackstraw · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Here we go again with the whole "Global Warming" theory. Lets just drop it. Hasn't everyone heard of ice ages? If not take a look here. The last sentence says:
    If "ice age" is used to refer to long, generally cool, intervals during which glaciers advance and retreat, we are still in one today. Our modern climate represents a very short, warm period between glacial advances.
    And all of these ice ages and thaws (global warming if you will) happened without cars, humans, or anything. It just happened, and life went on when it was warm and cold. Can anyone tell me the worst case scenereo if global warming got as bad as its gonna get in the next century or so? (Baring the seas boiling, but I havn't heard any predictions of oceans boiling or anything.) Even some ppl think that cosmic rays cause global warming. Also, you can check out this article that says:
    Between 52 and 57 million years ago, the Earth was relatively warm. Tropical conditions actually extended all the way into the mid-latitudes (around northern Spain or the central United States for example), polar regions experienced temperate climates, and the difference in temperature between the equator and pole was much smaller than it is today. Indeed it was so warm that trees grew in both the Arctic and Antarctic, and alligators lived in Ellesmere Island at 78 degrees North.
    So if the next bad warming experience was as bad as the one 50 some million years ago, it would mean that people would have to move more inshore (there will still be a coast mind you) and we can live further north and south than we can now. Trama. I wish it was beer time!
    1. Re:So? by U.I.D+754625 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I agree, and 18 year study proves nothing for a world and solar system that is 4.55 billion years (plus or minus about 1%).

      --


      //Blessed are they that run around in circles, for they shall be known as wheels.
    2. Re:So? by Tango42 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm inclined to agree with most of your points, but I think the point the environmentalists are trying to make is that the temperature change is much faster now than it has been in the past, rather than it changing more. Things can adapt to slow changes, but fast changes can be more drastic.

      I still don't think we have anything to worry about, personally.

    3. Re:So? by AtariDatacenter · · Score: 3, Informative

      Worst case scenerio?

      Global warming not only increases, but accelerates in a self-feeding reaction that extinguishes all life* on the planet Earth.

      Don't you love worst case scenerios?

      * - Well, any life worth talking about, anyhow. Do we really have to count those microscopic volcanic organisms?

    4. Re:So? by Unnngh! · · Score: 3, Insightful
      True, it proves nothing. That doesn't mean that all the current changes, however, are natural. We definitely have the means to cause large-scale climate changes, means which have not been present on earth in all but the last few of those billions of years.

      So, are we inadvertently changing the climate for the worst? I personally don't think we are (at least not on a large scale), but there's no good way of telling right now. We probably won't know that we are until it's too late enforce negative gains (i.e. stop using so many fossil fuels) and we will have to do something very proactive to make the climate more pallatable for us humans;)

    5. Re:So? by mobiux · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And what the non-environmentalists are saying is that there is probably nothing we can do to stop it. It's a natual cycle on the planet.

      We have to look beyond what our personally kept records are and look into history to see what may be coming our way.

    6. Re:So? by LostCluster · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Global warming most definitely exists as a short-term trend over the last 30 years, as so many different measurements can't all be wrong.

      The next question, however, is whether us humans are really the cause of it... would the Earth still be getting warmer even if we weren't creating manmade polution? It may just be that even if were we able to eliminate all of the anti-ozone polution in the world, the global average temerature might still go up anyway simply because the Sun keeps throwing more energy our way.

      It may be possible that the environmentalists are identifying a real problem, but not proposing a strong enough solution... that we'll actually have to somehow reflect-away a good chunk of sunlight in order to keep the Earth's temperature stable.

    7. Re:So? by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 3, Insightful

      War. Plague. Famine.

      The mass migration you describe is certainly possible, and if temperatures rise enough to melt enough ice tochange coastlines, it's what will happen. Even if the coastlines don't change, there will still be disruptions, and we'll deal with them. Humanity will survive. Life will go on. That's a good thing.

      But millions, perhaps tens or hundreds of millions, maybe even billions, of people will die in the ensuing chaos. You may be sanguine about that; I'm not. I've seen mass movement of refugees on a much smaller scale, and trust me, it ain't pretty.

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
    8. Re:So? by mrdogi · · Score: 2, Informative

      To add a bit to this, I have been told (sorry, don't have any info on details, I'll see if I can find some) that during this period of Earth's rise in global tempratures, Mars is also warming by a similar amount (given that it is farther from the sun, and all that). So, this global warming seems to have very little, if anything, to do with "green house" gases.

    9. Re:So? by U.I.D+754625 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The study is important and needs to continue, but you can't assume a rise in temperature over 2 decades means something bad is happening. I don't think we'll ever have enough data to prove whether we are right or wrong until the damage has been done (or apparently not done).

      --


      //Blessed are they that run around in circles, for they shall be known as wheels.
    10. Re:So? by LS · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I smell a troll.

      I see that you admit at least there is a global warming phenomena. Most scientists finally agree with that. But you question two things:

      1. Whether humans are causing global warming
      2. Whether global warming is a bad thing

      Let's address these two issues:

      1. Do humans cause global warming?

      1600 scientists, include over 100 NOBEL LAUREATES, agree that human activity is causing global warming. I trust them FAR MORE than you:

      http://dieoff.org/page123.htm

      It's obvious that climate has changed on Earth with or without humans, but it's also a known fact that human activity is accelerating climate change in a way different from natural causes

      2. Is global warming a bad thing?

      Here's where the troll part comes in. Do you actually believe the only consequence of global warming is rolling up our pants and walking inland a couple feet? The economy falls apart when the prices go up on oil. What do you think will happen when we are asked to MOVE LOS ANGELES AND NEW YORK INLAND??? What happens when the phytoplankton are no longer able to survive in the ocean water with low salinity? Well, let me tell you that phytoplankton produce most of the oxygen you breath...

      LS

      LS

      --
      There is a fine line between being a cultivated citizen and being someone else's crop. - A. J. Patrick Liszkie
    11. Re:So? by aceat64 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It's not all going to happen at once, the ice won't all melt in 3 seconds sending massive tidal waves at us. The level of the ocean will slowly rise, and we'll slowly move back, no one's going to die from that.

    12. Re:So? by 2marcus · · Score: 2, Informative

      Um. Anti-ozone pollution is _not_ the cause of global warming. Actually, ironically enough, it is the opposite - the ozone hole over the antarctic is one of the reasons that the antarctic has _not_ warmed much over the last 30 years.

      Anyway, yes, there is natural variability. But humans have dumped enough GHGs into the atmosphere that our contribution is an order of magnitude larger than the sun's variation over the last 250 years. http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/spm22-01.pdf page 8, for a reference.

      Finally, some people have proposed putting sunshades in orbit or the equivalent, but it seems like it first we can try to reduce our contribution by controlling some of our emissions.

    13. Re:So? by Dun+Malg · · Score: 4, Insightful
      Humanity will survive. Life will go on. That's a good thing. But millions, perhaps tens or hundreds of millions, maybe even billions, of people will die in the ensuing chaos.

      At a rise of .024 deg C a year, I seriously doubt the flooding and and mass migration will happen in a short enough span to cause "chaos", much less the kind that kills billions..

      --
      If a job's not worth doing, it's not worth doing right.
    14. Re:So? by WormholeFiend · · Score: 3, Insightful

      by that rationale, you can just dismiss humans as a footnote in the solar system's history.

      moreover, the whole "ecological" movement can also be shown as a frivolous endeavour, since at some point in the future, the Sun is going to bake this planet dry, then swallow it and blow apart in a supernova.

      come to think of it, why are we doing all this science crap? why do we go to work?

      nihilist homeless bums are starting to look damn smart now, dont they? //rant

    15. Re:So? by ThosLives · · Score: 5, Insightful
      That doesn't mean that all the current changes, however, are natural.
      Interesting philosophical debate: If humans are a product of nature, and humans do something, shouldn't that still be considered "natural"? If the evolution of a species such as humans is then natural, and that evolution "naturally" results in technology which stresses an ecosystem in strange ways, is that bad? Is it good?

      I think this whole debate is moot until people can decide on how to determine such fundamental things. Saying stuff like "because it will cause certain species to die off" doesn't mean anything in an amoral, evolutionistic world view: is it bad for species to die off?

      I also like to point out for all you who like their statistics: correlation does not imply causality. (For instance: the fact that trees always move when there is wind does not mean that the movement of trees causes wind.) I do not yet think it is possible to set up an experiment to test the relationship between millions of variables and some average global temperature reading. The inertia and chaotic nature of the terrestrial atmospheric system also makes it quite difficult to put into a control system - do you use a PID controller? H-infinity? What *should* the setpoint be? The answer to most of these is "nobody knows".

      *shrug*

      --
      "There are a dozen opinions on a matter until you know the truth. Then there is only one." - CS Lewis (paraprhase)
    16. Re:So? by hikerhat · · Score: 2, Informative
      Your premise is: because the Earth's temperature fluctuates over time humans cannot have an impact on Earth's temperature.

      Your premise is false, so your argument is invalid.

      Then you go and cite a bunch of sources that say that the Earth's temperature fluctuates over time. Duh. We already know that, and it doesn't support your premise at all. You need to cite evidence that human activity doesn't cause the Earth's temperature to change.

      It is true the Earth's temperature fluctuates over time. It is also theorized, and back by strong evidence, that human activity can affect the global climate.

      Finally, you confuse theory with fact. Let's not "just drop it" (funny the way you say it, as though you are member of the community of people who are actually studying this issue). It is a theory, with supporting evidence. You can go ahead and drop it, but I suggest people who actually understand the issue and study it continue to work on it. That's what people do with supported theories. They work on proving or disproving them.

      You should probably take a few basic logic and science classes before posting any more comments to threads dealing with scientific theories. And, given your +4 rating, the moderators should take some of those classes as well.

    17. Re:So? by arivanov · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Nope, that is not the worst case scenario.

      The worst case scenario is that most of tropical Asia and Southern China becomes a desert. As a result you get 2 billion of hungry people on the move which are part of at least three nuclear armed nations (China, India, Pakistan) and are bordering a fourth one (Russia).

      And that is scary...

      --
      Baker's Law: Misery no longer loves company. Nowadays it insists on it
      http://www.sigsegv.cx/
    18. Re:So? by ninjadroid · · Score: 2, Insightful

      1600 scientists, include[sic] over 100 NOBEL LAUREATES, agree that human activity is causing global warming.

      A consensus has nothing to do with science; that's politics. Science is based around proving/disproving a testable hypothesis. Show me the proof of global warming.

    19. Re:So? by Jonboy+X · · Score: 4, Funny

      You call that a worst-case scenario?!?

      No, the *real* worst is that the Earth heats up just enough to be considered a warm, sunny vacation destination by aliens who will spend their recreation time anally probing us with tools devices that are something like a cross between an industrial drill press, a belt sender and a soldering iron.

      Now that's a worst-case scenario...

      --

      "In a 32-bit world, you're a 2-bit user. You've got your own newsgroup, alt.total.loser." -Weird Al
    20. Re:So? by mobiux · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Who's saying it not natural? What scientists?

      They are looking at a couple hundred years of data and trying to explain why something that's been around for 4.3 billion years is suddenly warmer.

      These same scientists would be blaming SUV's for an ice age if it were suddenly getting colder. When it's well know that there are cycles to temperature change on the planet.

      Yeah maybe in the last 18 years it's gone up relatively alot, but who know's in the next 18 years it may average out.

      You gotta look at the bigger picture. Like eons not decades.

    21. Re:So? by pclminion · · Score: 4, Insightful
      Interesting philosophical debate: If humans are a product of nature, and humans do something, shouldn't that still be considered "natural"? If the evolution of a species such as humans is then natural, and that evolution "naturally" results in technology which stresses an ecosystem in strange ways, is that bad? Is it good?

      This is what really gets to me in these debates. Most people are unwilling to view humans as merely a part of the complex biological system that exists on the surface of the planet. I see no logical reason why the human species should be set apart specially from everything else, and no reason to arbitrarily define human actions as "unnatural."

      I think the reason people are unwilling to consider this idea, is that they assume the reason it was brought up in the first place was to justify the trashing of the environment, under the guise that we are simply behaving "naturally." But seriously, that isn't the point. The point is, the Earth must be viewed holistically, as a system of many interacting and not always distinct parts. To think that we, as one small part, can somehow direct our actions in such a way as to favorably control its evolution, is arrogant and mistaken.

      Life and climate are dynamic, chaotic systems. We've all heard of the Butterfly Effect. Even the smallest, insignificant action has profound effects on everything, given enough time. Are these effects good or bad? What causes them to be good or bad? Suppose that we are causing global warming, and in 100 years the world will be a tropical rainforest. All sorts of new species will evolve in the hot jungles of northern Canada. What "right" do we have to alter the Earth's climate, cooling it down, and preventing those species from emerging?

      The fact is, global warming is a problem because it is a problem for humans. I don't think the Earth cares if species die off, and new ones emerge. It is a continual process of trying to come into equilibrium -- except the equilibrium is always shifting because of the billions of outside influences. Except this term "outside influences" is also a misnomer, because there are no truly "outside" influences -- the universe is one big system of cause and effect, and the closer you look at it, the harder it is to make distinctions between any of the parts.

      Does any of this mean that we shouldn't do our best to curb our production of CO2? It depends, first of all, on what the immediate consequences to human civilization would be. Are we going to flood all our coastal cities? If so, it hardly makes sense to argue about whether the decision is "right" or "wrong" -- it's a matter of practicality. But if not... Suppose species are wiped out, migration patterns shift, ecosystems turn to deserts, deserts to to jungles, evolution gets a kick in the pants in general... Can somebody give me a fundamental, justifiable reason why that is "wrong?" Are natural changes only "right" if they are not guided by conscious awareness? Can you provide a justification for such an arbitrary viewpoint?

    22. Re:So? by schon · · Score: 2, Insightful

      would the Earth still be getting warmer even if we weren't creating manmade polution

      It's not just that - even if the earth were still getting warmer without manmade pollution, would it be getting warmer as fast?

      This is what the environmentalists are trying to say - but it keeps getting drowned out by people who don't want to hear it.

    23. Re:So? by Suidae · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I think 'unnatural' things and events are usually those things and events that are caused by human activity, particularly as related to technology.

      Hydroelectric dams are unatural, the Great Wall is unnatural, huge areas of land cultivated with plants of highly uniform genetics are unnatural.

      The fact that a thing is unnatural is not bad by most measures, but good and bad tend to be highly subjective. In the context of the environment good and bad relate mostly to the long-term impact of humanities activities. Bad things are things that disturb the ecology in ways that are not sustainable in the long term, such as reduction in genetic variety and depletion of topsoil.

      These 'bad' things are acceptable in the short term, as long as they are properly managed. Take our current high rate of usage of fossle fuels. Its a bad thing in that it causes things like acid rain and perhaps contributes to global warming by disturbing the carbon cycle. However, the damage is probably not permanent and it was a necessary step to fuel the industrial age. Tempering the progess during that time with economy and efficency might have resulted in a different technological and social outcome. Now that we as a species have reached a new technological level, we may now be able to leave behind the unsustainable technology of the industrial revolution.

      Related to your point about no one fully knowing what variables effect the system in what ways, I agree. That is one of the reasons why it is wise to try to keep our activities as low-impact as we can, and to keep a watch out for possible effects. I don't believe we all need to go live in yerts and become subsistance vegans, but we should make an effort to identify unsustainable resource usage and plan to keep it as short as we can without causing serious economic problems.

    24. Re:So? by schon · · Score: 3, Informative

      At a rise of .024 deg C a year, I seriously doubt the flooding and and mass migration will happen in a short enough span to cause "chaos"

      Really? Do you know the difference in global temperature between the last ice age, and now?

      Approximately 3 degrees celsius.

      How long ago was that?

      10,000 years.

      If the temperature is now changing .042 degrees per year (re-read the article - .42 per decade is .042 per year), that means that it's progessing a couple of orders of magnitude faster than it did in the past.

    25. Re:So? by Uggy · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I think it all boils down to agenda. Nature seems to have an agenda, and that agenda is balance. Stuff eats other stuff. If there is too much prey, more predators are bred. If there is not enough, they die off. The animal and plant kingdom has no ability to look ahead, adapt to coming changes. They only respond and they have no agenda save survival.

      We humans, on the other hand, have our own agenda. For better or worse, our agenda does not at all times mesh well with nature's. We don't just die when there are too many of us.

      And we certainly value comfort at a comparable level to survival *G*.

      --
      Toddlers are the stormtroopers of the Lord of Entropy.
    26. Re:So? by Catbeller · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Nicely done, but semantics are irrelevant.

      The earth's average temperature is rising. Fact.

      There are other facts. The glasiers are melting. Ground formerly that was permafrost in Alaska is melting, dropping entire villages into the ocean. Weather patterns are starting to change consistent with warming. All the measurements we can make show the temperature is climbing.

      Natural or not. It doesn't matter. What matters is the fact that dumping CO2 into the atmosphere is greasing the slide into hell. It doesn't matter if the warming is a "natural", normal turn of events. What matters is that we are abetting it enormously, and we need to stop dumping CO2 in massive quantities into the soup.

      It's the difference between sitting still in a sinking boat, and deciding to start slamming holes into the boat because it's fun and profitable.

      CO2 emmissions need to be reduced far, far more than the Tokyo treaty, the bane of the right, required.

      We're melting. No semantics.

    27. Re:So? by Wildfire+Darkstar · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And you're ignoring the message in favor of dismissing the messenger. The fact of the matter is that there is scientific basis for the global warming argument. Does that mean that global warming is happening? As you suggest, no, it does not. We've only been measuring this in a serious way for two decades, which is far less than a flash in the pan in terms of Earth's geological history. And, certainly, there've been massive climate changes on the planet well before humanity started pumping flurocarbons into the atmospher.

      So, yeah, the "anti-environmentalists" have quite effectively presented the case that global warming might not be happening. Which, don't get mw wrong, is fine and dandy and a voice which should be heard. But, just as we don't have the information to conclusively prove the existence of global warming, we similarly don't have the evidence to disprove it, either. Given this, the message being presented by the (possibly mistaken) environmentalists is still a valid one: taking steps to reduce the factors that might be causing global warming are, at best, going to prevent us from broiling ourselves off of this planet, and, at worst, have little effect at all.

      To put it in other terms, if I decided to go over Niagara Falls in a barrel, I might only get scraped up a bit, or I might die. But, if I don't have to do it in the first place, why put myself at risk? Even if I could promise myself a 99% chance of survival, what's the point at risking that 1% chance of death if I can avoid it?

      --
      Sean Daugherty "I have walked in Eternity -- and Eternity weeps."
    28. Re:So? by Tango42 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Ice cores, former seabeds, current lakebeds. There are ways of finding out the state of the climate before we started keeping records. They're not as reliable, prehaps, but they are still useful.

    29. Re:So? by mrfunnypants · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Very Nice as well, but arbitrary facts with no correlation are irrelevant.

      True the average temperature of the earth is rising, but your argument is not logical in the sense that fact a does not support argument b.

      CO2 emissions cannot be correlated to the increase in the earth's temperature. CO2 emissions and the people who sprout its affect have in no way proven that emissions equal an increase in the Earth's temperature. In fact go to www.pubmed.com and type in Carbon Dioxide Emissions, the scientific community has not proven anything that you blatantly state as being connected to fact a.

      Here is a brief Abstract from a very recent journal publication:

      "Only recently, within a few decades, have we realized that humanity significantly influences the global environment. In the early 1980s, atmospheric measurements confirmed basic concepts developed a decade earlier. These basic concepts showed that human activities were affecting the ozone layer. Later measurements and theoretical analyses have clearly connected observed changes in ozone to human-related increases of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere. As a result of prompt international policy agreements, the combined abundances of ozone-depleting compounds peaked in 1994 and ozone is already beginning a slow path to recovery. A much more difficult problem confronting humanity is the impact of increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on global climate. The processes that connect greenhouse gas emissions to climate are very complex. This complexity has limited our ability to make a definitive projection of future climate change. Nevertheless, the range of projected climate change shows that global warming has the potential to severely impact human welfare and our planet as a whole. This paper evaluates the state of the scientific understanding of the global change issues, their potential impacts, and the relationships of scientific understanding to policy considerations."

      As has been pointed out countless times before,
      correlation does not imply causality, wash and repeat with your argument and others.

      --
      "Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance" -Confucius
    30. Re:So? by BlindRobin · · Score: 3, Interesting

      see pond... see algae bloom see algae bloom kill everything in the pond see algae die out too... all natural people are natural too and with about as much ability to curb their own grwoth as the algae...

    31. Re:So? by Daetrin · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Most people are unwilling to view humans as merely a part of the complex biological system that exists on the surface of the planet. I see no logical reason why the human species should be set apart specially from everything else, and no reason to arbitrarily define human actions as "unnatural."

      What "right" do we have to alter the Earth's climate, cooling it down, and preventing those species from emerging?

      Either we're a part of the natural system as you posit in the first paragraph, and have the "right" to do damn well whatever we please for whatever reason we want, and it's all part of the natural cycle, or we are _not_ part of the natural system and therefore should limit the effect we have on said natural system, so we have every right to try and correct changes we made, because those changes weren't right in the first place. You can't have it both ways.

      The (rational) pro-enviroment side of the argument claims that the changes we're potentially making are taking place far faster than ecosystems can adapt to them. I believe some measurements show that species are daying off at a rate close to that of some of the big extinction events in history. As such it's a bit more than a "kick in the pants" to evolution.

      Will life survive? Probably. There is a amall chance we could screw up things beyond the ability of the ecosystem to recover, but most likely things will pull through in some form or another. However if all that survives are microbes and it takes another billion years for our level of development to emerge again, well, most people would conisder that a bad thing.

      Certainly there's a certain level of practicality in that, there's also a certain level of selfishness in it, but that's fine too. Every species judges that they are better than any species that could possibly replace them. They'll fight to maintain their position in the world, even if they don't realize what they're doing or why they're doing it, because natural selection has seen to it that all species that don't are extinct. Likewise, our ecosystem, as represented by us, is judging ourself better than all possible replacements. Arrogant, perhaps, "natural," definitly.

      --
      This Space Intentionally Left Blank
    32. Re:So? by thrillseeker · · Score: 4, Funny
      And we are the product of a big rock doing that same thing about 65 million years ago. What might come if we get wiped out?

      The copyright on Mickey Mouse would finally expire.

    33. Re:So? by Obfuscant · · Score: 2, Interesting
      The earth's average temperature is rising. Fact.

      Not fact.

      We have pitifully little data about the long-term temperature on this planet. We've only been ON the planet for a relatively short time (in geological terms). We've only been collecting temperature data for a pitifully short fraction of that time. For almost all of the time we've been collecting data, we've collected very sparse samples, and almost always near or in population centers (since people are usually only interested in what temperature is it outside their door, and most people live in population centers.) At best, two hundred years of data is actual temperature data.

      Scientists have been guessing at prior temperatures using all sorts of proxies for real temperature measures. Width of tree rings, concentrations of microscopic animals in ice, etc. Not true temperature measures, only things that might be caused by certain temperatures. (Other things can cause tree ring changes, etc.)

      Now the satellites are telling us we are in deep trouble. Unfortunately, we've only twenty years of this data, and during that 20 years, there have been half a dozen different ways of measuring the temperature -- they don't actually have a thousand mile tall thermometer, after all. Infrared emission, etc, are all used to determine temperature, and the methods used don't give the same answers. So, change the method, change the answer.

      And, as has been pointed out, we are actually in the recovery period from an ice age, so it is natural for the temperature to go up.

      It is ridiculous to think that we can stop the planet from going through its natural cycles, even though human nature wants to make us think we can. We think that the way it is now is the way it has always been and must always be, and that just isn't true.

      If you need an example, look at the Oregon coast. About 40 years ago, a river changed its course and created a hugh sand spit where the outlet of the river used to be (and a river outlet where sand used to be!) People started building their expensive, private resort houses on that spit, and now they are afraid that their spit might be eroded and dissappear. Well, it wasn't there 40 years ago, so it is a good bet that it won't be there in another 40 -- but don't tell them they were idiots for building on a sand spit.

      It's the same thing with "protected species". Some people think "species X was here when I was born, it is a good thing to keep it around forever." Not true. Species come and go. It is a natural result of evolution. Trying to maintain the status quo when Momma Nature doesn't want it that way is like spitting into the wind.

      What matters is the fact that dumping CO2 into the atmosphere is greasing the slide into hell. It doesn't matter if the warming is a "natural", normal turn of events.

      Yeah, the hell with the facts, it's more fun to panic and run in circles being afraid of the world. Yes, it does matter if the way things are happening are natural or not. Well, it doesn't matter to those involved in trying to stop nature, since they are the ones who get the grant money to study the "problem". Profit from pandering fear -- it's a great way to make money!

      We're melting. No semantics.

      Take your fearmongering elsewhere, witch of the west, or you'll get another bucket of water tossed on you.

    34. Re:So? by RedWizzard · · Score: 2, Insightful
      1. Is there anything we can do to reduce the human component in global warming?
      2. Would the impact of these actions be significant in comparison to the natural warming trend?
      The answer to one is almost certainly yes. Reduction of C02 output will definitely slow global warming. There is a secondary question that should be asked along side this one: is there anything we can do to reduce the natural component of global warming?

      The answer to 2 is unknown. It is probably best to err on the side of doing something that may be ineffective.

      The answer to three is almost certainly yes if you look at a long enough time period (e.g. 100-200 years). If predictions for climate change based on current warming trends are correct the economic costs will be higher than anything mankind has faced before.

      What it boils down to is that action now is insurance: we pay a cost now in the hopes that we'll reduce a potentially larger cost in the future. I'm willing to bet that very few Slashdotters aren't covered by some form of insurance so I find it difficult to understand why so many of us are against any action when it comes to climate change.

    35. Re:So? by rblum · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You know, the whole "we don't have long term data" argument doesn't really work.

      We're not talking about temperature per se, we talk about the differential. Temperature is not only rising, according to all evidence, it's rising faster than it ever did - as far as we know.

      Yup, that might be perfectly natural - that doesn't help the people who will die due to climatic changes in the next couple of decades.

      If you just want to sit back, give up, and watch the fireworks, that's fine. Just don't get in the way of those who want to fix things.

      Or are you afraid your lifestyle might suffer?

  2. Satellites Show That Earth Has a Fever... by the+Man+in+Black · · Score: 5, Funny

    ....and the only PRESCRIPTION...is more COWBELL.

    What? I'm the only one that thought that?

  3. A question is raised. (OT) by weeboo0104 · · Score: 2, Funny

    "A recent study from NASA says that satellites are acting as thermometers in space.

    Q) Do you know how to tell the difference between an oral and a rectal thermometer?

    A) By the taste.

    --
    It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men. -Frederick Douglass
    1. Re:A question is raised. (OT) by NorthDude · · Score: 2, Funny

      I feel really sorry for the guy who modded this "informative" :S

      --


      I'd rather be sailing...
  4. Energy content of the wind by Space+cowboy · · Score: 3, Interesting


    If the ground measurements are 0.34 degrees/decade, and the external measurements are 0.43 degrees/decade, then presumably the extra energy is contained within the circulating atmosphere. Certainly this ought to make the global dissipation happen faster (air tends to move more than water and earth (!) and has a fairly good heat-sink at the space boundary, not to mention the poles). I wonder if they've taken that into account.

    On a slightly different note, I've always felt a sense of wonder when thousands of billions of air molecules synchronise their motion and hit you full in the face. I've always thought it ought to have a more poetic name than 'wind', considering the breathtaking nature of the phenomenon. Just a thought :-)

    Simon.

    --
    Physicists get Hadrons!
  5. OH NO THE END IS COMING! by FroMan · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Perhaps we need a sample size of more than 20 years?

    --
    Norris/Palin 2012
    Fact: We deserve leaders who can kick your ass and field dress your carcass.
    1. Re:OH NO THE END IS COMING! by sparkywonderchicken · · Score: 2, Funny

      And the earth is constantly falling towards the sun. Hey, I just found out I'm dying.

  6. To Cure the Fever by Prince+Vegeta+SSJ4 · · Score: 2, Funny
    is a rather complex process. However, not as complex as one might think as the cure is readily available. The complexity comes in the delivery process.
    • Gather 17.5678 million tons of C8-H9-NO2
    • The hard part is distributing it on a global scale at the same instant, maybe coordinating a release in the upper atmosphere by rocket or something?
  7. Earth cycles by marika · · Score: 2, Insightful

    We don't even know the earth enough to really be sure we are the ones causing these events. What if the planet is just due to warm up. Yes we mess a lot with the planet, humans are very good with messing with unlown stuff. There is so much we don't understand yet.

    --
    This is totally insecure, but very convenient.
    1. Re:Earth cycles by Billly+Gates · · Score: 2, Insightful

      During the middle ages and during another time a few thousand years ago, the earth was warmer then today.

      Grapes were grown in winneries in southern Scottland by the 1200's and 1300's. I believe its still too cool today to grow them there but I dont know. Also the Vikings described greenland as a warm place like their native homeland. They wore jackets of course but not heavy ones like the eskimo's.

      If we study history or read the b ible, we know that grains and large grasslands and farms as well as animals like crocodiles and even lions once grew in ancient Egypt and Israel. Today its all dust and desert. It was warmer and wettier in the old days which explained why the empire did so well storing massive food that they would sell to other nations. Whole flocks of birds in which ancient egyptians hunted are now only in wettier parts of Afria. and former cannels and tributaries of the Nile are gone.I currently live in Las Vegas and there is history from a few thousand years ago that Indians hunted goats and wild deer?? Today they are all gone, except for a few deerover 6k feet in elevation in the highest mountain peaks.

      The climate changes all the time. It has got warmer before and cooler.

      However it should be noted that strong cold snaps come as a result of this that last centuries.

      After thewarm 1200's and 1300's, the mini ice age started extremely quickly. It killed the Vikings in Greenland and Iceland, crushed villages in the alps. Caused fammine and froze many people to death. It lessed for awhile but stuck around to this day.

      As soon as grapes grow in scottland then we know we are in trouble. Theory points out that if the polar ice caps melt, they dilute ocean currents, which effect temperature, rain patterns, and also make it much easier for artic air to head south via cold fronts. Warm water keeps or pushes cold air north.

      Infact this may be starting now! I heard though in London plants are coming into bloom 3 weeks earlier then just 30 or 40 years ago by people who track them. So it is warming up. That is almost month ealier. But how much? As soon as Scotts can plant grapes, then we know something might be happening like the mini Ice Age. That is why scientists are scared. The gulf stream is slowing down, and the northeast had the coldest winter on record as result. But that is still subjective. It could be dusturbances underwater which also effect surface currents.

  8. When in doubt... by phaetonic · · Score: 2, Insightful

    use the butterfly theory to explain it.

    1. Re:When in doubt... by Oligonicella · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The "butterfly theory" is right up there with the "holographic univers theory". Utter pap.

  9. they can not cure it nor by the_2nd_coming · · Score: 2, Insightful

    define what is causing it.

    is it nature or is it humans.

    we do not know, all we have is correlational data which is far from proof of anything at all.

    --



    I am the Alpha and the Omega-3
    1. Re:they can not cure it nor by hopemafia · · Score: 2, Interesting

      "is it nature or is it humans"

      Everybody tries to make this distinction, but they all fail to remember that humans are a natural part of the earth's ecosystem. So what if we're capable of altering the climate on a global scale?...that doen't make us alien to nature.
      Any significantly large population will alter it's environment, and we owe our existance to that fact, since it was early populations of photosynthetic organisms that were responsible for our Oxygen rich atmosphere.
      People need to remember that the earth is constantly changing. All the organisms living here either must adapt or become extinct, just like they have for all of time.
      Humans have done more damage trying to stop "natural" changes than the "natural" changes do themselves....just look at all the coastal and riverine engineering we do that ends up backfiring with massive flooding and coastal erosion gone wild.
      Now, before I get flamed by econuts, that doesn't mean we should just trash the place...since we'd basically be killing ourselves. But we can't expect to stop natural processes that have been going on for eons, to "preserve" the earth as it was when we started keeping track of it.

      --
      If God had had a computer it would have taken him 7 months to create the earth...if he even bothered to do it at all.
  10. Come on already by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The one thing I've noticed about Slashdot is that a huge number of users seem dead set against the idea of global warming. Am I the only one who thinks that regardless of the exact status of global warming its reasonable to take steps to reduce emissions and so on?
    Assume global warming is real, and then enviromentally friendly policies are needed.
    Then assume it isn't. Its not like enviromentally friendly policies require you to sacrifice your first born son. We enact them, maybe have fewer SUV's, and live in a slightly cleaner world.
    You don't stand to lose anything by assuming global warming is real and going from there. You stand to lose a lot by ignoring it and having it turn out to be real.

    1. Re:Come on already by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You don't stand to lose anything by assuming global warming is real and going from there.

      Wrong. People stand to lose their lifestyle.

      But isn't it easy to order others to make sacrifices?

    2. Re:Come on already by ChannelX · · Score: 4, Interesting
      So many assumptions in your posting but then again it's on slashdot so that isn't suprising.

      I'll avoid the moronic statement that emissions reduction goals would have no meaningful impact on the environment. There are so many different ways to impact the environment that its just a plain-old-stupid comment to make.

      Now, would you please give evidence, as I'm sure you've thoroughly researched the situation, to provide support for the statement "To really "stop polluting" you would drive the economy to a screeching halt."? I'm curious to see your evidence.

      How about this statement?

      In either case that means lost jobs.

      You mean like the current loss of jobs we've already seen? I suspect that research/development/production of new technologies to help reduce emissions would actually create new jobs. I still don't get why it would cost jobs when there are new opportunities available. This is always the argument I hear against doing anything about our impact on the environment and its a bogus argument.

      So please understand there is no we might as well argument to be made here, its more of a we should'nt unless type of situation.

      Actually its not. There is absolutely no good reason not to start doing something now.


      Unless we are reasonbly sure we are damaging ocean currents and screwing up the climate it makes no sense to certainly RUIN many people well being over it.

      . Many scientists are sure we are screwing up the climate and I'd bet their credentials to say so are far more extensive than yours.

      What is called for is some money and time to conduct real unbiased studies and learn what we can, and to get all the people spewing forth the "bad science" on both sides of this issue to sit down shutup and move over for legitimate study.

      So in your infinite wisdom and knowledge you know that all such studies up to this point are biased and illegitimate. You've read them all?

      --
      My blog: http://jkratz.dyndns.org/~jason/blog/
    3. Re:Come on already by dachshund · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Wrong. People stand to lose their lifestyle.

      Most of our "lifestyle" is still possible with more energy-efficient technology. Inefficient engines don't really add much to my lifestyle.

      And in the process of moving to more efficient tech, we get an economic dividend, as well... Not to mention the defense/political benefits of moving away from a fuel primarily obtained from politically unstable parts of the world.

    4. Re:Come on already by Baki · · Score: 3, Insightful

      People don't want to hear bad news, they don't want to change their comfortable way of life and give up their SUV toys.
      Therefore people keep rationalizing that measurements could be false, or warming is happening but it is not due to human causes etc. etc.

      While I am not yet convinced that the warming has a human cause and am annoyed by those that bluntly claim so while the statistical and scientific evidence cannot proof it yet, I think it is extremely stupid and shortsighted to not act as if it might be true. Yes it is not certain, but there is a good chance that we are seeing an extreme speed of temperature rise which is caused by humans. Just to be sure we should take measures to stop it. It also has some other beneficial side effects such as leaving some oil and wealth for future generations, i.e. just being decent and responsible also for the future of mankind.

      How egoistic and selfish many are. I don't know if this is a typical slashdot thing, or because it is because slashdot is mainly populated by americans and if the general opinion/mentality in the US is such. If I talk about it with people here (in Switzerland or elsewhere in europe) I can hardly find anyone who doubts a human caused greenhouse effect. Some, like me, think it goes too far to claim it as an abolute truth, but almost anyone thinks it might be and thus it is a good idea to behave a bit more responsible and try to reduce CO2 emissions and save some oil for future generations.

    5. Re:Come on already by John+M+Ford · · Score: 2, Insightful
      I do not think you are ignorant. I do not think you are a fool. As a matter of fact,
      I've never studies economics or sociology, so forgive me if I'm an ignorant fool, but its always seemed to me that as long as we are not experiancing large amounts of disease, drought or other reduction in the availability of natural resources, that economic slowdown is more a result of psycology than anything else.
      I agree with you.

      Drought
      Disease
      reduction in availability of natural resources.

      I guess that by our shared criteria, we can rule out psycology.

      John
      --
      I may disagree with what you have to say, but I shall defend, to the death, your right to say it. jya.com/ap.htm
    6. Re:Come on already by Epistax · · Score: 4, Insightful

      A) Do things for the good of everything, possibly at your own expense.
      B) Do things for the good of yourself, possibly at the expense of everything.

      It's perfectly alright to chastise, and excommunicate for (B). It's not alright to do it for any other reason. Most people hit a balancing point in their own life. If being environmentally friendly is beyond your balance, you're an asshole. Not believing there is any problem despite any amount of evidence is B, and pretending to have an argument about it is B and lying about it.

    7. Re:Come on already by John+Starks · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I find it interesting that you insult the parent as having unsubstantiated views and then proceed to express your own unbstantiated views.

      First of all, it is NOT clear that a reduction in emissions would have a significant positive effect on global warming. YOU are the one that must prove that, not the parent. Writing it off as "plain-old-stupid" does nothing to help your case. You are making an assumption that humans have caused the recent global warming, an assumption you must prove or at least support with evidence. Scientists are not "sure we are screwing up the climate," they're merely sure that we have experienced global warming over the past 18 years.

      And we can't just experiment by reducing emissions, etc. like other posters advocate. We WILL lose jobs if we do this. The reasons for this? Reductions in emissions are costly. This increase in cost will result in reduced output, since supply decreases while demand stays the same. The reduced output will force some firms to shut down rather than keep up with the high costs. As a result -- massive layoffs. Yes, there will be some new job openings for new equipment for factories, etc., but the huge increases in cost to all firms will dwarf this.

      Sorry, but your argument does not hold water, polluted or no.

    8. Re:Come on already by shiftless · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If being environmentally friendly is beyond your balance, you're an asshole.

      I daily drive a 70s Cadillac that gets 14 MPG and requires premium fuel, and I run the air conditioner all the time. I removed my catalytic converter and other emissions equipment long ago in favor of a big honkin dual exhaust with Flowmasters. When I change the oil, the old oil is taken to a place where I don't want anything to ever grow again and poured out on the ground (handy weed killer). Same for gasoline or diesel fuel that I use for cleaning parts.

      I don't have my trash picked up. Fuck that, I burn it instead. When I have a ton of shit to burn, especially wet brush, I use an old tire and diesel fuel to get the fire started and burning for days, all the while pouring out huge amounts of black smoke and acrid fumes (and burning green, too- cool stuff).

      My computer and other electrical devices stay running all the time in the house, as well as the air conditioner and other stuff. Fuck energy consumption, I'm gonna live in comfort.

      Yeah, I'm an asshole. What's your point?

    9. Re:Come on already by lavaface · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I can't help but think that humans have the ingenuity to provide current standards of lifestyle and still reduce emissions.

  11. The map of Europe was interesting but... by mobiux · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I am assuming that since the red showed warmer areas, the blue areas would show cooler areas.
    And it looks like most of the rest of Eastern Europe was cooler.

    It seems to me that most people think that it's getting hotter, well, it probably is.
    But I don't think that people realize that they have to take into count mroe than the most recent 200 years of history, that's a pretty small time table for something as old as the earth.

    1. Re:The map of Europe was interesting but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      You know the thing is that Al Gore always backs his warnings up with cold hard data.

      This is something the Republicans need to start doing. They have far more opportunity for education and far more chances to understand the big picture, but it was the Republicans that threw out the antecdotal data that Al Gore didn't know what the fuck he was talking about simply because he gave the speech on the coldest day in the near recorded history.

      One of the things people fail to understand is that Global Warming doesn't mean *EVERYTHING* is getting warmer, but that there are enough of a *GLOBAL* change that it effects local temps.

      What does that mean for all of us? It means wilder temperature fluxuations for the most part. In most of the US, we can actually expect colder winters because of global warming, but also unpredictable weather change. I can remember riding my motorcycle on an 80 degree day a few years ago in the middle of December in the middle of Indianapolis up to Chicago (the trip back, however, wasn't as pleasant). I can also remember a few years back when we were getting snow storms almost up to May.

      This is what Global Warming is going to do. you may never feel the weather being warmer, but it will be warmer and less predictable.

      Oh year, and its also said that according to US military data that was prepared specifically in regards to how the military needs to plan and strategize for future situations that Global Warming if all goes the way their scientists say it will, most of the US's west coast will loose what little natural rain fall it gets in the next 30 to 50 years. The artic starts a meltdown just barely and it ruins the weather patterns over that side. By the same token, Russia is said to actually get MUCH colder -- which the military supposes means that the Russians will then be far more interested in the Middle East than they are today, maybe leading us into another 'cold war' -- and maybe making Russia one of the powerhouses of Europe once again as they continue to hold some of the largest untapped oil reserves out there.

      Antecdotes mean very little. Idiots with their soundbytable (???) sentences deserve to be treated as the idiots they are. I have far more respect for folks like Al Gore than anyone here on this site...

    2. Re:The map of Europe was interesting but... by DR+SoB · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Actually they can tell the temperature of the past 2000-5000 years depending on which scientist you talk too. Tree's have rings which grow with age, and can tell you a lot about the climate of that year, that's one method, another are rocks/lava, the cooling and formation can tell you a lot about the environment and with carbon testing you can tell when the lava formed. There are many other methods as well.

      --
      Mod +5 Drunk
  12. What's wrong with change??? by millahtime · · Score: 2, Insightful

    So, the Earth is getting warmer. Who says change is a bad thing??? Is it bad for the earth to be warmer than it is today??? I would guess not since it has been there before.

    I would assume it's because we humans are resistant to change and like what we know. But we are highly adaptive so, I'm sure we will be fine.

    1. Re:What's wrong with change??? by LostCluster · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Life is adaptive, but even species are not. I kinda think we as humanity want to keep this delaying this meek-inheriting-the-Earth thing as long as possible.

  13. Climate change by Doug+Coulter · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The problem isn't global warming, per se -- some like it hot. The problem could be better described as climate change. Sure the Earth's been through many cycles, but none where we were trying to have a technology-based civilization at the time, with food production concentrated in small areas, and the rest as cities/suburbs. All it would take to create major problems would be a major change in the pattern of rainfall. No one's going to want to tear down, say, New York, just because the climate there is suddenly good for growing crops, while California's went too dry and hot for that. And oak trees take a long time to migrate. Sure, the race will survive, but it might not be with as much fun as it could have been.

  14. Not really correct by Tenebrious1 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    And this new study, which covers the 18-year period going from 1981 to 1998, shows that the Earth's temperature is rising 0.43C per decade instead of the O.34C found by previous methods.

    For those who just skimmed the linked article; the article links to another, which says the satellites can only detect temperature on land, but not over snow covered land. Hmm... seems like a skewed data set to me.

    How do they know that the colder, snow-covered regions aren't getting colder, to balance out the average temperature? Or maybe the oceans are getting cooler which might also brings down the average temperature to what the ground stations recorded.

    Maybe the scientists do know, and this is just a case of bad reporting...

    --
    -- If god wanted me to have a sig, he'd have given me a sense of humor.
    1. Re:Not really correct by maxpublic · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Maybe the scientists do know, and this is just a case of bad reporting...

      It's a case of bad reporting. The loss of ice in both the poles and Greenland is well-documented and goes back more than two decades, with some pretty spectacular and sudden melts or glacier break-aways occuring within the last half-dozen years.

      However, as a number of people have pointed out, there's absolutely zero evidence that this is due to human activity. It could very well be natural, as was the case in human history for both the 'little ice age' and period of abnormal warming during the previous millennium which allowed the Norse to colonize the southern tip of Greenland. Both of these changes were more extreme than the changes we're currently seeing.

      Hell, it could just be due to a tiny increase in our sun's thermal output. Most people don't know that our sun is a VARIABLE star, which means that it's energy output changes on an irregular, unpredictable basis. If the solar output were to increase by less than 1/10th of 1 percent over a sustained period of time, you'd get much the same thing we're seeing today - and since the alteration itself would've happened a couple of centuries back (it takes awhile for minute changes to broad impacts) we wouldn't know about it today, since two centuries ago there was no reliable way to accurately measure solar energy output.

      Max

      --
      My god carries a hammer. Your god died nailed to a tree. Any questions?
    2. Re:Not really correct by danharan · · Score: 4, Insightful
      How do we know that snow-covered regions aren't getting colder, you ask.

      Simple- glaciers are retreating everywhere and polar ice is melting too. This of course changes albedo...

      As for the oceans? They are getting warmer too:
      http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/observe/su rftemp /1996.html

      It is incredible that we are still asking whether warming is actually real.

      [freak-out]IT'S REAL DAMN IT, IT's REAL![/freak-out]

      I can understand people questionning what causes warming, but for chriss' sakes people- it's getting warm down here, and weather patterns have become rather erratic:

      Insurance companies have paid out $91.8 billion in losses from weather-related natural disasters in the 1990s so far, close to four times the weather-related claims handed out during the entire decade of the 1980s. ( worldwatch.org link


      Even without the satelite data, we should know by now that things are changing, and likely not for the better.

      Since I'm commenting... the next stage of uncertainty and doubt is what portion of climate change is caused by humans, with the implication that we shouldn't do anything about it. And the F of FUD, being we'll run the economy.

      Well, none of this is true or relevant. Moving beyond fossil fuels can be good for the economy.
      --
      Information: "I want to be anthropomorphized"
    3. Re:Not really correct by 2marcus · · Score: 2, Insightful


      Given that we receive about 340 W/m2 of solar radiation, and given that the forcing due to human induced greenhouse gas emissions is _already_ 2.4 W/m2 and even if we stabilize CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm it will rise _another_ 3 W/m2, we are going to be effectively adding 1.5% or more to solar luminosity. (Yes, there is some cooling effect due to aerosol emissions, but aerosols are a flow pollutants, GHGs are a stock, which means that the aerosol influence won't grow the same way).

      So if you are sticking by your "1/10th of 1 percent" would make big changes, then you have to admit that we're making HUGE changes.

    4. Re:Not really correct by 2marcus · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Ah, selective quoting.

      I said that _if_ "you are sticking by your '1/10th of 1 percent' would make big changes" _then_ you would have to admit that we are making huge changes. Or are you saying that the sun changing by 1/10th of 1 percent is significant, but humans changing its effective radiation by 1 percent is small? Or are you saying that humans haven't effected the radiation budget of the earth?

      It is quite likely that humans are responsible for much of the last several decades of warming. There have been plenty of attribution studies attribution studies that have shown this statistically. More to the point, if we maintain a business-as-usual path, we are very likely to radically warm the earth over the coming centuries. We can't stop change from happening, but we can take actions that would reduce the rate of the change that we are causing. And yes, we need to balance the costs of emissions controls against the expected value of the environmental benefits we will receive - I believe that economic growth is vital to improving the health, happiness, and well-being of humans, but not without regulation.

      The yahoos who keep going on about not doing anything to reduce emissions until we are absolutely certain about its impact are ignoring the fact that decisions are made under uncertainty all the time. There is certainly enough evidence that we are impacting the earth's climate, and enough basic scientific understanding to know that we will continue to do so, and enough economics understanding to be able to make some guesses about what the right balance of controls are, that we should be at least implementing starter policies (not necessarily Kyoto - I'd prefer a carbon tax, and real scientific investments into fusion and zero-carbon technologies)

      Or we can stick our fingers in our ears and chant mindlessly that "its not happening" and "its not our fault" because, after all, this is a long term problem and who cares if future generations curse us for our short sightedness?

      There is a chance that you are right, maybe we'll luck out, maybe the climate sensitivity will be at the low end of the model results. Are you willing to take the greenhouse gamble for the next generation? I prefer to take the optimal path given our level of understanding rather than saying "maybe nothing will happen so let's do nothing".

      -Marcus

    5. Re:Not really correct by 2marcus · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Um. So, a dyed-in-the-wool moderate takes a position that is at one end of the distribution of all the scientists who work in the field? I assert that you are nowhere near the middle of this argument. Anymore than intelligent design advocates are the "moderate" side in the evolution vs. creationism debate.

      The vast majority of the models out there agree with the "emissions folk" (here I include, in no particular order, the GFDL labs, the PNNL labs, Wigley et al, the AGU, the MIT Joint Program on Climate Change, NOAA, the NAS, the IPCC, Schneider et al, the Hadley Center, etc. etc.). The "no impact" folk on the other hand - Christy, Lindzen, Baliunas, Singer - are a real minority.

    6. Re:Not really correct by Watts+Martin · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I haven't seen anyone credible suggest that we turn back the clock. What I've seen, primarily, is suggestions that we find ways to reduce our impact on our environment. The "global warming skeptics" tend to use language similar to yours, about simple black-vs.-white worldviews... and then go on to paint everyone arguing for restrictions, changes or even just more careful planning as anti-technology neanderthals. This is just as much of an excluded middle fallacy as what the skeptics are accusing the scientists of. (And please notice how frequently we're asked to accept that reports produced by environmental NGOs are tainted because they have an "agenda," but reports produced by industry groups with an unquestionable interest in the specific outcome they always find are good science.)

      According to the EPA (which you'll recall is routinely attacked by the "alarmist environmentalists" for being far too conservative), "There is certainty that human activities are rapidly adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, and that these gases tend to warm our planet"; the IGCC concluded in 2001 that the observed warming trend is "unlikely to be natural in origin." Slashdottians keep fighting a battle which is already over. There are many legitimate questions as to how much we are contributing to the warming trend, but the question of whether human activity is contributing is a done deal. You're right -- there's no point in "wasting energy trying to decide who's to blame," but it does not follow that there is no point in moderating our contributions to that warming trend whether or not we are a primary cause (or even a major contributor).

      The other point that tends to get lost on Slashdot discussions of this topic is that technologists and scientists are providing solutions to these problems, not merely bemoaning them. It is sadly ironic that those promoting new developments in renewable energy, low-impact building techniques and resource conservation practices are, apparently, being so successfully painted as the luddites. This is not about "the evils of technology," this is about keeping up with it.

      If you want us to "prepare for the worst and try our best to ride out the storm," then you should be in agreement with most of those tree-huggin' Nobel Prize winners and "green capitalists" like Amory Lovins. What's blocking us from those preparations aren't the environmentalists and climatologists -- it's the people who have a vested interest in current, higher-pollution methods and products.

      And it doesn't have to be that way. BP Energy's power plants have actually been lower than what the supposedly industry-destroying Kyoto Protocol would have required for over two years now, and they did at no net cost to the company.

      [BP CEO] Browne calls the net economic benefit "a positive surprise -- because it begins to answer the fears expressed by those who believed that the costs of taking precautionary action would be huge and unsustainable." In the United States, these false fears have been fed to the public by the coal industry lobby and by many electric power and oil companies. They back their claims by using the work of economists whose climate policy models assume that only a large energy tax -- the "magic bullet" that Browne decries -- will cut emissions. Not surprisingly, these abstract models project high costs, but they are diametrically opposed to BP's empirical evidence of what works and how much it will cost.

      Look. Could human-affected global warming be a repeat of the Y2K Bug scare, in which, after nothing happened, people derided all the Chicken Littles for believing in impending doom? I certainly hope so! The thing is, we'll never be able to "prove" whether the reason nothing serious happened is because people listened to those Chicken Littles and scrambled like hell to fix problems that could be identified and addressed.

  15. so this... by Pi_0's+don't+shower · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The fact that the parent wasn't modded as "sarcastic" is an affront to /.'s moderation options. In seriousness, there are the 4 million brits who stand to lose their homes, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,120 0272,00.html (Sorry I don't know how to highlight links), and that's just the impact in one place. But I think the importance is that, although we are coming out of an iceage, there is a definite climate change being caused by human impact on the Earth. No, it won't wipe out all life on Earth or even cause us to go extinct, but (in the spirit that Earth day was yesterday) at least consider that we may be messing with things that we cannot control, and may be damaging things that we certainly cannot undo.

    1. Re:so this... by kippy · · Score: 2, Insightful

      In seriousness, there are the 4 million brits who stand to lose their homes,

      God didn't create Holland, the dutch did.

    2. Re:so this... by Rorschach1 · · Score: 2, Funny
      In seriousness, there are the 4 million brits who stand to lose their homes

      On the other hand, as much as 30% of Canada may someday become habitable if this trend continues.

  16. Fever and Agent Smith's golden words by GillBates0 · · Score: 4, Insightful
    According to this medical site:
    The temperature increases for a number of reasons:
    * Chemicals, called cytokines and mediators, are produced in the body in response to an invasion from a microorganism, malignancy, or other intruder.
    * The body is making more macrophages, which are cells that go to combat when intruders are present in the body. These cells actually "eat-up" the invading organism.
    * The body is busily trying to produce natural antibodies, which fight infection. These antibodies will recognize the infection next time it tries to invade.

    Taken together with Agent Smith's insightful words:
    "Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague. And we are... the cure."

    I think the message is clear - Mother Earth is trying to get rid of us.

    --
    An Indian-American Hindu committed to non-violent thought/speech/action alarmed by the global explosion of radical Islam
  17. Just more data by Nurf · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The problem with this is that it really means nothing. It's useful data to have, but with our current state of knowledge, we can't infer anything from it.

    The Earth's weather is a chaotic system. About the only thing you can be sure of is that things will be different tomorrow, compared to today. With a lot more research, we may be able to find strange attractors for some places at certain times, and use them to predict what is going to happen.

    The human concept of "climate" is entirely that: a human concept. Eighteen years of observations is a miniscule speck in the age of this planet, and we can't say with any certainty that any trends in those eighteen years will carry to the next eighteen years. A thousand years of observations falls into the same category - a tiny sample of a big and complex system.

    The Earth's weather changes on many scales: years, decades, centuries, millenia, and more. At each of those scales, there is change. Until we can understand or predict its behaviour across all those scales, we are practising voodoo when we make predictions.

    I have seen arguments and models that predict that the world will heat up dramatically in the next century. I have also seen others that predict that we will be entering a new ice age. The thing is, the models for both predictions are quite reasonable.

    So. We have a little data, and that's all we have. Conclusions may follow in the indeterminate future. Until then we have speculation.

    This is all fine and well, but the part that annoys me is that the media (in general) are treating the speculation as fact, and only covering the speculation that fits their agenda. Please beware!

    --
    ---
  18. I can fix it. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Take 2 asprins and call me in the morning.

  19. Paint everthing white by cyber_rigger · · Score: 3, Funny



    Reflect the sun's energy back into space.

  20. Re:past climates by FlyingOrca · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Because this time we appear to be causing it ourselves, and because the ramifications for our descendents are immensely disruptive and expensive.

    While many otherwise reasonable people seem to like to question the former point, the fact is that the best climate models we have predicted a certain amount of anthropogenic climate forcing. Observations are right in line with those predictions.

    --
    Corruptissima re publica plurimae leges.
  21. Well, actually, by Space+cowboy · · Score: 5, Informative

    Quite apart from the fact that sometimes life didn't go on (which ought to be enough to concern anyone), if you look at how these phenomena manifest, you'll see that it's typically not a linear process. There's normally a critical point over which X happens and below which Y happens. If X is lethal to human life (snowball earth, greenhouse earth) then we'd damn well better hope we stick with Y.

    A case in point is the atlantic conveyer (the 'Gulf Stream' to us Brits). If the conveyer stops, an absolutely massive amount of energy will cease to be delivered to where it currently is. The knock-on effects aren't really model-able, we just don't have the knowledge, but since staggeringly enormous amounts of warmth would cease to be delivered to the UK coastline, you could assume it will get colder, even if you don't know quite how much. To give some perspective, it generates a difference of approximately 20 degrees celcius between points at the same latitude. 20 degrees of delta-T over several hundred billion tons of water is a lot of energy to be dependent on far-easier-to-change salinity level.

    The atlantic conveyer depends on salinity in different parts of the world. If it rains more (in places that it currently rains little) and rains less (in places where it currently rains significantly) the saline levels will change, and the conveyer will be affected - at the critical point, it will simply stop. There's no obvious way we could restart it either. Shifting several hundred billion tons of water is way beyond our capabilities, and restoring the initial conditions may not be sufficient.

    I guess I'm sufficiently worried about the consequences (which we will not be able to counter) to pay some heed to people who try to assess risk under next-to-impossible scientific conditions. I guess, given the potential consequences, that I'm willing to listen more to those who get off their backsides and put some effort into the analysis than people who sit around saying, 'hell we've had ice ages before and we will again'.

    Actually humankind hasn't had ice-ages before, and to suggest we'd just cope is hubris of the highest order. We live in a highly technological society, and yes, given an immense struggle I think we would probably cope, as in 'Western civilisation' would cope. Countless millions would die in poorer, less developed, and simply unluckily-positioned countries as weather systems went out of control. One other thought is that a highly-structured, lean-and-mean (due to commercial pressures, mainly) society is a vulnerable society. If central America were reduced to a desert (unlikely, but possible) then the food chain would break within the US, and other countries would have a hard-enough time to feed their own. 280 million people is a lot of mouths...

    Simon

    --
    Physicists get Hadrons!
    1. Re:Well, actually, by Space+cowboy · · Score: 3, Informative
      Just peachy doesn't really do it justice:

      From a google search


      [However, According to a Discover article:

      "... people all over the world are amazingly similar. Some anthropologists believe that this genetic homogeneity is the result of a "population bottleneck"--that at some time in the past our ancestors went through an event that greatly reduced our numbers and thus our genetic variation. Based on estimates of mutation rates, Penn State geneticist Henry Harpending says the bottleneck happened sometime after ... 100,000 years ago and before a population increase ... around 50,000 years ago. Now archeologist Stan Ambrose of the University of Illinois has linked Harpending's theory with geologic evidence to explain what caused the bottleneck--a giant volcanic eruption. ... Mount Toba in Sumatra blew 800 cubic kilometers of ash into the air--4,000 times as much as Mount St. Helens--the largest volcanic eruption in more than 400 million years. Toba buried most of India under ash and must have darkened skies over a third of the hemisphere for weeks. ... a six-year global volcanic winter ensued, caused by light-reflecting sulfur particles lingering in the atmosphere. Average summer temperatures dropped by 21 degrees at high latitudes, and 75 percent of the Northern Hemisphere's plants may have died. ... A thousand-year ice age began ... caused perhaps by an increasing amount of snow that failed to melt over the summer. This snow cover would have reflected more sunlight off Earth's surface, making the world still colder. The effect on humans, who had been enjoying a relatively warm period, must have been devastating. ... Perhaps only a few thousand people ... survived. ...".]



      If that's 'peachy', I'd sure-as-hell not want to come across anything 'hard'. Granted it's just one view, but then any one person (you and I included) only have one view as well...
      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
    2. Re:Well, actually, by FlyingOrca · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Are you an environmental scientist? Have you read the papers, articles, and books written by those who are, and share the concerns I've outlined?

      I'm not saying those are opposite ends of a spectrum. I'm saying that they are identified possible consequences of climate change; I'm saying that the best science on the subject to date suggests that we are contributing to that change; I'm saying that we should act now on what we strongly suspect while trying to find out more. What's so unreasonable about this one particular aspect of environmental science that Slashdotters don't seem to get it? It's like fundies and evolution.

      --
      Corruptissima re publica plurimae leges.
  22. Riiiight... by Andorion · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Because, you know, one day Los Angeles will be ok, and five, ten years later it'll be submerged.

    What kind of timescale do you think we're talking?

    ~Berj

  23. Re:past climates by millahtime · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Because there's a good chance we're not only causing this change

    Who says we are causing the Earth to heat up??? How do we know it wouldn't have heated up on it's own anyway??? If you study the history of the earth you will learn that the Earth is always changing. It has had hotter and colder times in history. It was fluxuating like this before cars, aersol cans, computers and many other modern inventions. To take a look at a small window of a few years to make a judgement is like a doctor looking in your ear for a knee pain and diagnosing you.

  24. You drive an SUV for jesus? by raygundan · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Perhaps your slightly misguided antagonistic take on the Christian religion might benefit from some time spent reading.

    Be careful, or Jesus might run you over with his Prius. Assuming he's not just a fictional thing some really old authors made up. In which case, this is all there is and screwing it up by polluting will end your afterlifeless life that much quicker. Either way, you're screwed. So be nice.

  25. Hands on ears, shout very loudly by panurge · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Well, that seems to be the general approach here...it's not happening, or it's natural, perhaps the poles are getting colder...nyaah,nyaah, I can't hear you.

    The point is surely not that the Earth gets hotter and colder. I accept that (where I live I can look out the window and see some leftovers from the last glaciation or so.)
    Rather, it is that the heating up is very, very rapid in geological terms. During the 19th Century when the age of the Earth was realised, it was understood that natural processes were very slow. Now they are happening really rather fast, and the satellite data suggests it is faster than previously believed. There has been, in geological terms, a step change in atmospheric carbon dioxide, and a lagging step change in temperature. (as an aside why can't a geek site manage subscript and superscript? Step changes are usually bad news. I have just become a grandfather and I can't help contrasting when I was born into a post-WW2 world rather full of optimism despite McCarthy et al, and my granddaughter being born into a world where accelerating climate change, population migration, hydraulic, food and energy wars may be the norm. A load of /.ers announcing that everything is just fine does nothing for my peace of mind. You are the intelligent people, for the most part. If you aren't taking it seriously, what are the morons doing?

    --
    Panurge has posted for the last time. Thanks for the positive moderations.
  26. Re:past climates by killjoe · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "Who says we are causing the Earth to heat up???"

    The climatologist, physists, chemist, oceonagrophers and geologists. You know, those people with PHDs who have been studying the climate for decades and who have run all kinds of experiments and have made lots of observations.

    I know that you probably know more then all those people combined and are in a better position to make judgement, after all they are probably ignorant liberal elite collage professors who never listen to Bill Oreilly or Rush Limbaugh. So what if you have a PHD and have been stuying the atmosphere all of your adult life. That's just "book learnin". You know better. You have common sense and street smarts.

    --
    evil is as evil does
  27. I know you're joking, but... by SuperBanana · · Score: 2, Informative
    Paint everthing white

    I know you're joking, but parking lots and roads are responsible for altering weather patterns and causing local climate changes. Birds have even adapted to following highways because of the thermals they generate...

  28. The technology behind these satellites... by Van+Halen · · Score: 5, Informative
    I happen to work for a company that manufactures and sells some of these satellite-based temperature sensors to the government. I actually work on the ground processing software for one of them, which has all kinds of neat algorithms for turning raw microwave spectrum measurements into meaningful science data, including surface temperature and air temperature at several different levels of the atmosphere. If anyone is interested in the technology behind them, here are just a few of the sensors used by the US government for these purposes:

    MSU - 1970s era air temperature

    AMSU - next generation of MSU, several are flying on US and European satellites ATMS - next generation AMSU, scheduled for first flight in a few years SSM/T-1 - old 1970s/80s era air temperature sensor, the last one launched in 1999 SSMIS - next generation SSM/T-1 that also combines functions of 2 other older sensors (atmospheric water vapor and a ton of surface data like ice concentration, sea surface wind speed, soil moisture, etc), the first of 5 launched in October of last year CMIS - next generation SSMIS scheduled to fly by the end of the decade

    All of the above are what are known as microwave sounders or radiometers. They look at radiation in specific bands in the microwave region of the spectrum (based on oxygen absorption lines) to infer air temperatures.

    It looks like the study in the article was using MODIS and TOVS data. TOVS consists of some of the above instruments - MSU and AMSU in particular for this application. MODIS is another sensor that doesn't look at the microwave region of the spectrum, so it's out of my area of expertise. Look at the website for more info on that if you're interested. :)

  29. Natural Vs contrived? by phorm · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Indeed, while certain "global warming" factors can be traced to pollution, more concerning is the effect on wildlife of both pollution and over-harvesting

    With respect to changes in the Earth itself, this may be part of a natural pattern, or some core activity which is causing a general increase in the outer skin. I wonder if anyone has done a "deep probe" to see how far these changes are penetrating.

  30. Re:What's the greatest cause of global warming?... by 2marcus · · Score: 2, Informative

    Your link talks about 0.05% increases in solar radiation per decade. Radiative forcing increases due to GHGs are nearly 1% over the last two centuries. Even if the sun has been steadily increasing at the 0.05% rate for 2 centuries, the two trends would be of comparable magnitude - and the human one is accelerating.

    The Sun may be big, but without the magnifying glass it isn't likely to fry the ant...

  31. based on ice core data, we are at a maximum alread by Intraloper · · Score: 2, Interesting

    we are already as warm as we've ever seen for the last 420,000 years. See the Vostok Ice Core data, which is is good agreement with otehr ice core data for as far back as the otehr cores go. We know: 1. CO2 (and other greenhouse gasses) trap heat. 2. CO2 (and other greenhouse gasses) have increased rapidly and dramatically in concentration, from anthropogenic inputs. 3. That would be expected to trap heat. 4. WE are already at a local AND GLOBAL temp max for the last 400,000 years or so. 5. We are warming very, very rapidly from that local and global maximum. Given JUST that, even without the good agreement of the models with obeerved data, it seems almost perverse to argue that humans arent creating a pretty solid upward pressure on temps.

  32. Ozone is ANOTHER issue by Scrameustache · · Score: 2, Insightful

    would the Earth still be getting warmer even if we weren't creating manmade polution? It may just be that even if were we able to eliminate all of the anti-ozone polution in the world, the global average temerature might still go up anyway

    Sigh, the ozone issue and greenhouse gasses that cause global warming are 2 different environmenal issues. They are both atmospheric pollutant issues, but they are not the same.

    Ozone stops ultraviolet rays from reaching the surface, greenhouse gasses stop infrared heat from escaping to space.

    --

    You can't take the sky from me...

  33. We can't wait millenia. by Chris+Burke · · Score: 3, Insightful

    We simply can't wait to collect a geologically significant body of data.

    If pollution is causing unnatural global warming, then we can't wait until said warming is undeniable fact before we act.

    I suggest an experiment: let's attempt to drastically reduce our emissions, as if we were addressing a real global warming problem. Then we can study temperature changes. If the rise in temprature decelerates or reverses, we could reasonably conclude that our pollution was the cause. If not, then we've made our air and water cleaner for no good reason, but at least we'd know!

    --

    The enemies of Democracy are
  34. More satallite data by bm_luethke · · Score: 2, Informative

    Here shows some stallite atmospheric data that shows a cooling trend.

    So, which one to believe is the "true" measure of our global climate?

    --
    ------- Sorry about the spelling, I suffer from two problems. Dyslexia makes it difficult to spell well, lazy makes it
  35. 20 years can be significant by erik_norgaard · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Many people here claim that 20 years is too small a time scale for any maesure that should be compared against a geological time scale.

    It is interesting then that the last ice age enged with a temperature increase of 7 degrees world average over just 20-30 years!

    Certainly the changes observed are small and the time scale is short. But these data are giving us detailed information of this very short period. And that data is added with the less detailed data collected over the last centuries and milleniums.
    This collected set of data is what form the basis of predictions and models about the climate.

    There is evidence that the average temperature has been rising since the industrialization, and that the increase in temperature has been faster in the later years.

    The measurements only serve to reduce the band of errors and inacuracies. Never the less, slashdotters seem to try twist the evidence around in order to arive at a no evidence at all conclusion.

  36. Warming isn't the only concern by microbox · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I still don't think we have anything to worry about, personally...

    I'm not an expert on the North Atlantic Current, but I think it works like this:

    There's a world wide system of ocean currents, the most famous of which is called the North Atlantic Current. They're all inter-related, and the said current brings millions of power stations worth of heat to Europe (each day I think).

    Now the current is driven by a delicate balance of ocean temperature differentials (I think), and flows straight past Newfoundland - accounting for the warm winters, excessive amounts of wind and general crapy weather.

    Now, most of the worlds Icebergs also flow past Newfoundland, since they originate in Greenland. As the iceberg flow increases, there has been measurable decreases in the ocean temperature in a part of the said North Atlantic Current.

    Iceberg flow is increasing... perhaps because of global warming. If the iceberg flow increases to a certain amount, at a particular time of year, then the North Atlantic Current will be reset somehow, and Northern Europe will become as cold as parts of Northern Canada.

    That means permanent snow down to North Germany. Mmmm... just a theory I saw on the discovery channel.

    I think the potential for climate change is only a small reason for reducing car emissions. Environmentalists have done their campaign a disservice by relying on such an easily disputable theory.

    We are affecting the atmosphere at an unprecedented rate. If the world was the size of a basketball, then the atmosphere would be about as thin as a layer of plastic shrink wrap... and it is elementary to life on earth.

    So here's an anecdote about how we're affecting the weather (remember that the plural of anecdote isn't data). When my parent were growing up they hadn't heard of asthma. Today, in some places of the world almost every child suffers from asthma. I think about 20% of children suffer to various degrees in Toronto.

    There was a bad smog day in Toronto, and the emergency rooms at hospitals were filled with children needing treatment. A lot of those children were driven to hospital in SUVs. Screw the environment... do you think that smog might have an impact on human health?

    --

    Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
  37. not so helpful to kick around numbers by Phantom_of_the_Opera · · Score: 2, Informative

    0.024 deg C a year represents a huge amount of energy.
    In the oceans alone, that is about 24 thousand peta-joules of
    energy.

    What does that mean? It's just a number. I don't know the significance of it, but I couldn't dismiss it offhand.

  38. come on down from the hills, uncle jeb by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    "Kyoto so we can actually lower the rate of global warming by 1% which is likely a natural occurance that we are speeding up in an insignifigant way. Most resonobly attainable emmisons reduction goals would have NO MEANINGFUL impact on the enviornment, over just keeping current standards." how about some citations there, jeb. or are we to take it to be gospel becasue you preech it in strong terms? how about this: you come up with some EVIDENCE to support your bizarre claims that go against the clear consensus in the scientific community. then we can talk. "They will be a huge economic burdon. To really "stop polluting" you would drive the economy to a screeching halt." time to go back and study some economics. developing whole new industries based around new methods of generating, distibuting and using power will be a gigantic boon to the economy.

  39. I know the source of the bias... by jdifool · · Score: 2, Interesting
    If only the average /.er could get out of his/her (yes ! her !) parents' basement, then he/she could notice that it's getting hotter and hotter year after year.

    More seriously though, have any of you heard about Blaise Pascal ? He didn't invented French Fries, but come from the same country. This guy just had a revelation once, during a late night studying. The revelation of God.

    To persuade other people to actually give faith into his idea of christianity, he gave us a cunning scientific principle : bet (based on both probabilities and cost of opportunity). If you bet on the existence of God, and if indeed it exists, you are ready for a happy millenar fucking angel chicks. If he doesn't exist, it's all the same. If you refuse to believe, and he does exist, just bring a cooler with you. If he doesn't exist, you're dead the same way.

    The analogy is relevant in the sense that global warming does exist, but the causality with human activities is not proven. Hence the bet. Of course there are a lot of people saying that it would cost us our life standards. Answer : bip ! bullshit. Go on civil nuclear (just catch up your late, Sam !), spend less oil, learn to walk, get out of your fucking basement and take the streetcar.

    Gosh ! Think, before you brain freezes...

    Regards,
    jdif

    --
    Let's overcome our weakness.
  40. 100 Laureates by rumblin'rabbit · · Score: 2, Insightful
    100 Nobel Laureates means very little. How many climatologists are in this number? My guess is few or none. Mostly they will be biologists, physicists, chemists, possibily even economists.

    Now someone with a Nobel prize in physics is going to be a very smart person, but he or she will be no more able to assess claims in climatology than myself.

    1. Re:100 Laureates by RedWizzard · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Now someone with a Nobel prize in physics is going to be a very smart person, but he or she will be no more able to assess claims in climatology than myself.
      You have an extremely high opinion of yourself.
  41. Missing a bunch of data by geomon · · Score: 2, Insightful

    How thick is the crust where these measurements are made? Crustal thicknesses, thus the depth to which solar energy or other radiant source can penetrate, vary considerably throughout a continent - and between different continents.

    How much geologic activity is occurring in the region sampled? Is it active, like the Pacific Rim areas, or is it relatively inactive, like the cratonic regions of the continenets?

    I consider this pretty important information if one is evaluating this kind of data.

    The first-blush inference drawn from the article summary is that mechanisms contributing to global warming (i.e., anthropogenic sources) are driving surface temperatures on the Earth in the same way as air temperatures. No mechanism is described in either the long article from Goddard or from the summary on exactly how surface temperatures could be affected by human activities.

    The Earth's crust varies from one or two kilometers to several kilometers in depth and there is a great deal of geologic activity that is going on all over the planet irrespective of man's presence. While the evidence of global warming continues to point to a strong antropogenic contribution, both article and summary fail to explain how this paticular information is realted to anything .

    --
    "Rocky Rococo, at your cervix!"
  42. The Earth's Got a Fever.... by TSMABob · · Score: 2, Funny

    and the only perscription... is more cowbell!

  43. Right now it is much more than speculation by Intraloper · · Score: 2, Insightful

    And yoe said more than that. You said: "there's absolutely zero evidence that this is due to human activity." That isnt true. Not even close. Right now, there isnt bulletproof, conclusive evidence. But there is a mountain of circumstantioal, mechanistic, theoretical, field-observation, and model-derived evidence in support of anthropogenic causes for at least a good part of observed warming. When you make a dogmatic statement like "there's absolutely zero evidence," please dont come back with nitpicking about how you are being misread.

  44. Heat Wave! by nanojath · · Score: 2, Interesting
    Awright!!! Let's have a crazy flame war about really complicated science that none of us really understand!


    Oh, sorry, did I get here late?...

    --

    It Is the Nature of Information to Transgress Artificial Boundaries

  45. Not to downplay global warming, but... by tuxlove · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Wasn't it back in the late 70's and early 80's that everyone was freaked out about what looked like an upcoming ice age? We just do not have enough historical data to know what a "normal" temperature pattern is. No question that pollution is not good, but we just don't know what effect it's having on global temperatures.

  46. Re:Most disagree on the cause... by admiralh · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I am in the crowd who does not support most global warming theories. Why? Because they are just that, theories. We try to explain how something works, have the audacity to think we can model it, then go along the lines of where the most money is.

    How about that controversial Theory Of Gravity? I mean, why should we support it, because after all it's "just a theory?"

    This rant sounds like something straight out of the mouth of Rush Limbaugh and the other right-wing "there is no problem here" people. Most of these "facts" have been debunked time and time again, but your side always cynically believes that the scientists are looking for a meal ticket rather that solving real problems.

    One side effect of clean energy is more energy consumption and production. This leads to a new pollution which may account for some of what we see, heat. Heat is a standard byproduct of all energy use. As we get more efficient in producing it we consume more... so how long before we stop worrying about what chemicals go into the air and start worrying about the excess heat we push there.

    Most of your post was right-wing claptrap, but this isn't. It is a real problem, and is one of the big concerns about some clean energy technologies such as solar, especially space-based solar. And I'll also agree about the problem with Eastern countries and their pollution. Many in the West would like to have trade based on trade between equals (i.e. don't trade with China until they bring their environmental regulations up to a reasonable level), but the free-trade zealots won't here of it. Buy those cheap Chinese products, and don't worry about the Chinese environment or Chinese greenhouse gases.

    --
    Hopelessly pedantic since 1963.
  47. Climate Change + Extinction by Gunark · · Score: 2, Insightful

    To all those repeating the old mantra "you can't prove that we are causing the warming -- it might be natural".

    Yes, the fact that global warming seems to be correlated with our spewing of CO2 into the atmosphere may be a coincidence. It might all just be part of some natural planetary cycle.

    But add to this the fact that we are currently seeing a mass extinction unlike anything in the last 65 million years, and you've got quite a conspicious coincidence.

    I'm surprised how few anti-warmists (or would it be anti-anti-warmists?) see this.

  48. You're assuming the Little Ice Age was natural? by djeca · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The Medieval Warm Period occurred as Europe was recovering from the collapse of the Roman Empire, resulting in deforestation across Europe as farming communities expanded. The Little Ice Age began around the time the Black Death caused a 40% fall in the population of Europe, and continued as the genocide of the native North American peoples caused massive reforestation over New England.

    Correlation is not causation, of course, but holding up the MWP and LIA as examples of non-anthropogenic climate change events is making an unwarranted assumption.

    Our species has been altering ecosystems on a massive scale for tens of millenia; It'd be pretty amazing if the destruction of Europe's broadleaved forests over the last 10 millenia turned out to have left no trace on the climate record. The same goes for the fire management of the Australian forests, or the turning of China into one vast paddy field. I just don't understand how it is possible to believe that taking things one step further - pumping vast quantities of carbon from under the ground, massively changing the composition of the atmosphere - will magically have no effect at all on the climate.

  49. The solution: by GnrcMan · · Score: 2, Funny

    Okay, if everyone flushes all their asprin and antibiotics down the toilet, maybe we can take care of this...

  50. Self Correcting Phenomenon by Fortress · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I seem to remember global warming described as a self correcting phenomenon. The argument wnet as follows:

    1. Earth warms. Could be due to pollution, increased solar activity or increased volcanic activity.

    2. Ocean evaporation increases. Warmer air and water means easier evaporation.

    3. Increased levels of water vapor in the air leads to increased global cloud cover.

    4. Increased cloud cover raises the Earth's albedo (measure of reflectivity) causing less solar gain.

    5. Less solar gain leads to global cooling trend.

    So the atmosphere seems to be a feedback system, like a thermostat or buffer solution. Note that the reverse happens when the Earth is too cool. Also, the increased ocean evaporation mitigates somewhat the rising sea level due to melting ice caps.

  51. Re:Priorities.... by doom · · Score: 2, Insightful
    And stop picking on SUVs. They may be the vehicle of choice of Yuppie Scum, but modern examples get decent gas milage and thanks to the latest generation cat converters and emissions hardware/software, produce tiny fractions of the noxious crap that used to come out of cars.
    I was going to point out that getting 25mpg when you could get 40mpg hardly counts as decent gas mileage.

    It's also interesting that SUVs don't appear to actually be any safer for the driver, despite being more dangerous for everyone else, not to mention polluting at about double the state-of-the-art.

    But then I realized that you're a total nut-job:

    In some places, the tailpipe emissions from an SUV is cleaner than the ambiant air.
    However, a reasonable person might make the point that SUVs are probably not the biggest problem we've got as far as pollution goes. How about coal power, which still produces about half of the US electrical supply? Electric vehicles will never really be "zero emissions" until we do something about the coal problem.