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What Lies Ahead For Linux

An anonymous reader writes "Here's an interview with Stacey Quandt, a Linux and open source industry analyst. She explains why she feels Linux will overtake Windows as the number one operating system within the next three years." There's some interesting tidbits on what it takes to be an industry analyst as well, and some looking back to when most analysts were unaware of Linux.

87 of 456 comments (clear)

  1. What she really said by tverbeek · · Score: 5, Informative
    She explains why she feels Linux will overtake Windows as the number one operating system within the next three years.

    Nice out-of-context hyperbole. She was referring to shipments of new boxes in the server market. In terms of desktop market share, she says that mere parity would take "a long time", and she's looking forward to a modest 10% share (essentially changing from a "fringe" player to a commonly-supported niche player) as a significant milestone.

    --
    http://alternatives.rzero.com/
    1. Re:What she really said by ScottGant · · Score: 5, Funny

      a Linux and open source industry analyst. She explains why she feels Linux will overtake Windows as the number one operating system within the next three years

      Wow, what a revelation! Here's some more:

      1. A Mac and OSX industry analyst explains why they feel Macintosh will overtake Windows.

      2. A FreeBSD industry analyst explains why they feel BSD will overtake Windows.

      3. An Amiga fan in his basement explains why they feel the Amiga will overtake Windows.

      4. A slide-rule professor in a bunker on the island of Midway still thinks the war with Japan is still happening...how he got on this list I don't know....

      --

      "Music is everybody's possession. It's only publishers who think that people own it." - John Lennon.
    2. Re:What she really said by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Funny, generally when Giga or any other research group comes on about Windows, they get shot down. When they come on about Linux, hey, it's gospel!

    3. Re:What she really said by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Well, we have a pretty good feeling that the research group hasn't been paid off by a linux corportation, as opposed to all the "studies" paid for by Microsoft.

      Not to say there isn't some financial push to linux, but it's certainly not to the same degree as seen in the MS world.

    4. Re:What she really said by DAldredge · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Why? RHAT has between 250,000,000 and 600,000,000 USD in the bank. IF they wanted to rent a research group, they could.

    5. Re:What she really said by patmc · · Score: 2, Funny
      ...open source would be nice but I'll be very happy with fully supported binaries.

      You can have that today, it is called Windows.

    6. Re:What she really said by Frizzle+Fry · · Score: 3, Funny
      Well, we have a pretty good feeling that the research group hasn't been paid off by a linux corportation

      I also always trust the unbiased, non-financially-motivated information on www-1.ibm.com/linux.
      --
      I'd rather be lucky than good.
    7. Re:What she really said by Halfbaked+Plan · · Score: 4, Interesting

      let them buy their 256MB-Intel-WinXP machines from Dell.

      Not sure what you're implying there. I would be scared to run a 'Modern Linux Desktop' on an Intel machine with a mere 256MB of RAM.

      I use FVWM on Slackware 9.1 instead, on my older hardware. But I know that the 'average user' will require much more.

      In addition to this: I can and do run Office 2000, on Windows 95, on an aging Toshiba 486 laptop that only has 32 megs of RAM. It works pretty darn well for writing and spreadsheets. I know for a fact that I could NEVER get acceptable performance with that machine running Linux with OpenOffice.

      It would run Linux fine with FVWM (it boots NetBSD-current with FVWM instead) but not with the 'desktop' power (I prefer command-line power thankyou, and XTerms are great for running shells out of) that most people expect today. But it's good enough to run Windows 95 and MS Office quite acceptably.

      I want good drivers for my aging software, and as Linux has marched ahead as a platform for closed-source drivers for bleeding edge hardware, and as a server platform, it's partially abandoned most of the 'desktop' hardware I own.

      Which is almost entirely 'legacy' hardware, I will concede. But Linux used to be a cool platform to run on older hardware. Now I find myself having to pare back on what I install, as I know modern KDE or Gnome would suck on my mere PIII-500 desktop machine with only 768M of RAM.

      A bunch of us used to run Linux on 486s with 16 megs of RAM. Netscape, and all that. It worked pretty good.

      Sorry for seeming reactionary.

      --
      resigned
    8. Re:What she really said by Deraj+DeZine · · Score: 2, Funny

      Funny, yes, insightful? I don't think so.

      1. I've never seen a Mac or OS X proponent claim that Macs will be more popular than Windows. If that happened, they couldn't be the elitest jerks they enjoy being.

      2. BSD is dying, right? ;) Although I seriously have never heard a FreeBSD fan claim that any BSD will dominate the desktop.

      3. Some Amiga users actually believe that Amiga has overtaken Windows. They also think that they can fly and enjoy spending their time musing about the animated colors that adorn their walls while their friend takes another hit from the bong that they pooled their money to purchase.

      4. What's a slide-rule professor? For that matter, what's a slide-rule? I enjoyed Mortal Kombat by Midway though, so your props are deserved. They're actually a US company, by the way, even though they developed for Nintendo.

      --
      True story.
    9. Re:What she really said by superpulpsicle · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I totally agree. NO ONE will take over windows in the next 10 years. For every great feature that comes out of the competitor OS, M$ will just steal it. They got bigger and fatter lawyers.

      Linux will never come close unless it can find that directX alternative.

    10. Re:What she really said by BlackHawk-666 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Why not roll your own Linux using the help from the guys at Linux from Scratch. The guide is fantastic and easy to follow. Additionally, you could try rolling a cut down version that fits on a floppy or a mini-cd using the cut down glibc libraries. Linux will still run on very humble hardware, but maybe you shouldn't be expecting a generic desktop install which is meant to be easy for end users to also be ultra lightweight.

      --
      All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
    11. Re:What she really said by Moraelin · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Dunno about him, but _I_ have better things to do with my time than compiling and rolling together my own Linux distro. Gentoo (since it's also in the news today) and its _primitive_ stone-age install was already enough of a waste of my time. I really _don't_ want to get any more extreme than that, thank ye very much.

      And in fact, I'll say that this is _the_ problem with Linux. It's made by people who have nothing to do with their time, for people who have nothing to do with their time.

      To get back on topic: It may well eventually overtake Windows, but that's when a whole different lot of people get into the act. People who don't thing "whoa, this is sooo cool... I dug through their sources and for a week, and read the newsgroups for 4 hours a day, and I figured it out. I'm sooo l333t." Instead it will take people who think "fsck it, I don't have time for this crap. I just want to press a button or two and have this configured, tested and running. I want it to do the repetitive menial tasks (like selecting the initial mirror in Gentoo) automatically, not make me do that through a text mode browser and command line. And if it knows that I'll also need to configure XYZ next, then it should jolly well do that for me, not expect me to manually launch yet another command line utility. And I want it to bloody remember my choices, so it doesn't make me configure the exact same DSL connection _again_ half an hour later."

      I.e., people with the exact opposite mentality than whoever came with the Gentoo install. _Then_ Linux will be ready for Joe Average.

      --
      A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
    12. Re:What she really said by westlake · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Especially considering DMCA & the looming spectre of DRM.

      Forget the DMCA for a moment.
      DRM is something businesses want to use internally and home users need to legitimately access media content from the major providers. TurboLinux may or may not succeed commercially, but it at least has some anchorage in reality.

  2. Some issues worth further discussion. by rkz · · Score: 2, Interesting
    Stability is a bare minimum. It took Microsoft a while to bring Windows up to some semblance of stability, but they have a lot of developers and vendors to bring into line with their product.

    I still favor Linux over Windows when it comes to stability, but there are several other facets of the Windows operation system and Microsoft philosophy that turn me (and likely other Slashdotters) off. First, security. I don't like my browser or mail client doing things I'm not explicitly aware of. I cannot use Windows with a clear conscience because of IE's and Outlook's persistent security failures. Add in IIS for Windows incarnations with IIS installed an running. This is compounded by the fact that these pieces of software cannot be uninstalled. I don't really care about the monopoly angle with the bundling of IE/Outlook. Linux distros "bundle" similar items if not more which I like. The difference is that if someone finds a bug in Mozilla that puts me or my network at risk, I can wipe it clean from my hard drive and fall back on alternative software packages.

    Cost is another obvious difference, but one that I think will eventually catch up to Microsoft more than any antitrust case or business practice. It's evolution, baby. The personal computer is still a wonderful, versatile thing. I use it to write, program, listen to music, watch movies, capture/edit/burn digital video, and game. But it isn't a new concept on which a business can build on and dominate market share any more. There are a growing number of open source software projects that meet or even exceed their commercial competitors capabilities. OpenOffice, Mozilla, and Apache to name a few. There's three software projects right there that are relevant to the corporate world's preoccupation with information technology.

    Commercial software that meets a need or niche that open source solutions cannot fill is going the way of the dinosaurs. They had their chance, but it's not the way I see software evolving. Why depend on a single commercial source for solutions when you can support a core group of developers in producing a piece of software that everyone can benefit from?

    I don't so much find Windows to be inferior. It's just that Linux and the canon of open source software built upon it make so much more sense financially, socially, and from an engineering standpoint.

    1. Re:Some issues worth further discussion. by The_Quinn · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Maybe I'm a minority, but I use MS Windows XP at home to listen to music, watch DVDs, play games, surf the web, and (very infrequently) be productive. I download every security patch and always scan downloads. And my system has always been rock solid stable, and I've never had any kind of security breach (I use Norton Internet Security, too). Yes I payed a couple hundred for all the software (more for each game) but it's been worth it to me. And P.S. I love Linux - I develop Linux apps for a living.

    2. Re:Some issues worth further discussion. by lindec · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I agree with you that stability is a minimum, but it depends on if you are discussing servers or desktops. In being a stable, a server has accomplished a big part of it's requirements. The desktop is a completely different ballgame. Linux on the desktop is a very popular /. topic, and everyone always wonders: "will this be our year." It's been a long time coming, but I still think we have some distance to cover. Linux is very powerful and very stable, and pretty user friendly these days. It is not yet ready in terms of program installation, especially when we are talking about Joe Sixpack. From my experiences with friends and family, the "average" user has little or no knowledge of the command prompt and no desire to learn to use it. It has to be so easy that the user can click on a program and have it installed. There are solutions that are getting close, such as RPM and APT, but there is still some ground to cover. This isn't necessarily the biggest or most important problem with Linux on the desktop... I have seen many articulate and thoughtful discussions on this subject before. It is my honest belief that Open Source will have it's day, as many users are already switching to Firefox and Thunderbird among other things. Linux's day will come, but it will still take some time and honest, constructive criticism.

      Damn... right when I got my karma up....

    3. Re:Some issues worth further discussion. by Johnathon_Dough · · Score: 5, Insightful
      There are solutions that are getting close, such as RPM and APT...

      I think one hurdle Linux deveopers need to get past is their naming. Acronyms, abreviations, and random letter groupings culled from what the app does is not "user friendly".

      "huh? Where is the install wizard?"
      "oh, well you use RPM to get it."
      "wha? What does how fast my motor is going have to do with installing my Video watcher thing?"

      ...many users are already switching to Firefox and Thunderbird among other things.

      Maybe because they are names. And they come with a nice clickable installer. If they were called fbrsr and mrd, and required a full build from source on Windows, how much do you think their user base would grow?

      I am relatively computer literate, but if I have a choice between something that needs building from source, and a nice installer, well, computer savvy or not, I am also lazy.

      --
      If you are one in a million, then there are six thousand people who are just like you.
    4. Re:Some issues worth further discussion. by zangdesign · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I think a lot of the decision on which system (politics aside) comes down to whether or not you want to futz around with the OS or not.

      I use Windows, also, and have found it to be very stable - but then again, I also don't experiment a lot with software, having figured out which stuff works for me AND I don't try to push the bleeding edge on hardware.

      Windows is very stable, now. In common desktop usage, I daresay it can be as stable as Linux.

      I used Linux for a while, but it lacked a lot of the software I needed to get my design work done.

      --
      To celebrate the occasion of my 1000th post, I will post no more forever on Slashdot. Goodbye.
    5. Re:Some issues worth further discussion. by Dalcius · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm in agreement, but a few points:

      1) Stability is a big part, and I don't want to put words into your mouth, but other facets cannot be ignored. Performance. Ease of maintenance (service interruptions? reboot?). Remote administration. Batch-administration. Security. Lack of bloat (see Performance and Security as well). Available server applications. And lack of preparation or unique application training to accomplish these things. It's my personal observation that Linux beats out Windows in every area.

      2) As far as I can see, most realistic people think Linux will take another 3-5 years to hit 10% on the desktop, including big Linux figures.

      3) Administration is still the killer for Joe-user, but for companies with an IT department this isn't an issue. Considering Linux's put-your-home-and-usr-directories-on-NFS ability and how easy it is to mirror a box (no unaccessable 'files' on the filesystem), a company can roll out Linux without admin hassles. I honestly think this will be where it starts. People will use it at work and take it home (for work reasons or personal reasons). Companies will demand hardware support, user base will grow, and the snowball feeds itself. :)

      Cheers

      --
      ~Dalcius
      Rome wasn't burnt in a day.
    6. Re:Some issues worth further discussion. by Frizzle+Fry · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You're not in the minority, you're in the vast majority. It's just that most people in your position don't have any reason to discuss it. They just happily go about using their computer and having it work.

      --
      I'd rather be lucky than good.
    7. Re:Some issues worth further discussion. by reverius · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Package "foo" has a nice installer for both RPM and APT, and it works over the internet! You don't even have to go to foo's website to download the installer.

      For RPM, you just type in "urpmi foo".

      For APT, you just type in "apt-get install foo".

      That's a lot easier and faster than having to run an installation program that you had to download, then click through a bunch of boxes asking you where you want the files, which options you want installed, whether you want Japanese documentation, and if you don't mind if foo installs Gator and Alexa and the Google toolbar to "make your life easier"...

    8. Re:Some issues worth further discussion. by Halfbaked+Plan · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I cannot use Windows with a clear conscience because of IE's and Outlook's persistent security failures.

      So use Mozilla and Eudora when you're stuck on a Windows platform. Why do you pose it like you're forced to use IE and Outlook if you run Windows. You're not. I wasn't, before I switched to NetBSD with Mozilla, and Sylpheed.

      --
      resigned
    9. Re:Some issues worth further discussion. by tftp · · Score: 4, Interesting
      For RPM, you just type in...

      An average computer user today does not type. Well, you can expect him to type a letter in a wordprocessor. But that letter comes from his head, and is easy to read. Computer commands do not come from his memory (as opposed to you, me and other computer professionals), and so he would need to ask, in this order:

      1. Do I need to click on desktop before I start typing your command, or I can do it right in the Internet Explorer?
      2. Where is that Command Prompt you are talking about? I see no prompt on the screen! (say your thanks to MS for burying the cmd.exe shortcut two levels deep.)
      3. Ok, I see this black window. But none of what you say I should type are words, how do I type them? (Answer: character by character, checking every one of them.)
      4. This thing is telling me something! How do I understand what it is?
      5. There is no "Finish" button to click!

      In other words, the consumer is now totally GUI oriented, and only UNIX heads still remember what a command prompt is.

    10. Re:Some issues worth further discussion. by CustomDesigned · · Score: 4, Interesting
      So use the gui interface to the package manager. RPM has Ximian Redcarpet, and GnoRPM, and Up2date, and Redhat Network (and Yum and probably some more).

      Note that Redcarpet, Up2date, RHN (and probably others) do auto-dependency like APT-GET.

      I used the Redcarpet GUI when I first started with Ximian. It was very helpful and almost magic for a newbie. After a few months, I got 'rug' - the command line version (called 'rc' at the time). It was so much more flexible and efficient, I have never used the GUI since. For example, instead of paging through package listings with blearly eyes, I can just list them to a file with rug, and search the list with vim.

      I started out my Dad on the GUI, and although he is no unix head, once familiar with the concepts, he found the 'rug' command line version much more efficient as well.

      So my point is that you need both. I always recommend providing a solid scriptable command line interface first because it gives you the most bang for the buck (or hour). But then, a good GUI helps sell the program to new users by looking pretty and inviting and by helping to visualize concepts used by the program.

    11. Re:Some issues worth further discussion. by FuzzyBad-Mofo · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Having been forced to work with Windoze XP lately, (I run Linux 2.6.5 at home) I can say with authority that Windoze is inferior. (Warning: rant follows)

      It doesn't have a remotely useable shell (which, despite what GUI fanatics may say, is still the most effecient interface available), it doesn't have useable virtual desktops (yes I know about the Powertoy virtual desktop POS that puts all tasks on the same desktop), application control is lacking (*how* many times must I kill Homesite before it acks the kill signal?!), and it can't copy and paste worth shit! (what, I have to touch the keyboard?!).

      And for the record, this is not simply a troll, but my actual eXPerience. So be it! Long live Free software.

    12. Re:Some issues worth further discussion. by Dionysus · · Score: 2, Insightful

      the consumer is now totally GUI oriented, and only UNIX heads still remember what a command prompt is

      And still Microsoft thought it necessary to create a much stronger commandline interface for Longhorn...

      --
      Je ne parle pas francais.
    13. Re:Some issues worth further discussion. by silicon+not+in+the+v · · Score: 3, Insightful

      When people say software installation is not easy, don't spit back the trite, unhelpful answer, "Just type [apt/emerge/urpmi/...] package_name" That's generally not what they're talking about.

      I've been looking at and reading about Linux for a while and recently begun using it, and I've already found several programs I want to use that are not in any packages. They just come in source, and I don't know how to compile/install source code yet. I have asked on Slashdot before if there is a graphical front-end for compiling programs from source, but haven't seen any answers yet. It would be nice to have a program where I can select the .tar.bz2 file and tell it to install.

      If I have to run gcc manually or something to compile it, how do you know which compile options to use?

      I've found no problems with packages--they do install and uninstall easier than Windows programs, but there needs to be an easier way to install non-packaged stuff. I don't think package dependencies are much of an issue on any of the several distros I have tried now.

      --
      We may experience some slight turbulence and then...explode. -Capt. Mal Reynolds
  3. She? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Did they include some pictures... it, uh... helps me with my advocacy. Oh, they did. h0t!

  4. 1998 called by The+Bungi · · Score: 5, Funny

    He wants his headline back.

    1. Re:1998 called by benchbri · · Score: 5, Funny

      1998 called again, and this time left a message; they want their joke format back

  5. Hmm... That's strange by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    I thought the Slashdot editors would have caught this mistake when they read the article...

    Oh. Nevermind. ;-)

    1. Re:Hmm... That's strange by AhBeeDoi · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Perhaps, the pom-poms they were waving obscured their vision. I'm all for the success of Linux as a desktop alternative, but not at the expense of the truth.

  6. I was going to say by Ymiris · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I would doubt anyone would agree with the statement that Linux could overtake windows in 3 years, it will take a lot longer and more team work from the linux people to make this happen, not to mention Linux better start getting the support of gamers who can drive the sales of OS purchases.

    --
    **It runs through my veins like radioactive rubber pants! Do not deny my veins!**
    1. Re:I was going to say by thryllkill · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You said:
      "I would doubt anyone would agree with the statement that Linux could overtake windows in 3 years, it will take a lot longer and more team work from the linux people to make this happen, not to mention Linux better start getting the support of gamers who can drive the sales of OS purchases."

      She said:
      "Within the next three years I believe Linux will overtake Windows as the number one operating system based on new server shipments."

      Her statement has nothing to do with gamers, desktops, or OS sales. It has to do with pre-installed Operating Systems on server sales. TWO VERY DIFFERENT THINGS

      I hate to sound like an ass, cause I would love to see Linux becoming a good gaming platform (as in most games available for it, please no links to Winex, it is neat and all, but come on lets be honest, it's not as good as something written natively. Plus ATI drivers suck, no matter how good your compatibility layer is) but I do not think that the kernel devels really care about games or OS sales (except maybe RH and Suse/Novell). It is a labor of love for the independant ones, and for the ones employed at IBM it's about putting out a great product to sell SERVERS!

      --

      Note to self: No more arguing with the faithful.

  7. Analysts by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Analysts exist solely to pimp products for vendors. When an XYZ Analyst tells you that XYZ is going to take over the world in 3 years, you can safely ignore it. That holds true whether XYZ==Push Technology or XYZ==Linux.

  8. Convicted Monopolist by blunte · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I like that name. That's a very clear title for Microsoft. It definitely would get the attention of someone undecided about MS vs Linux.

    "Well, you could buy OS and related products from a convicted monopolist, or you could get these open source products (and buy professional support) from these (_list_) vendors."

    --
    .sigs are for post^Hers.
  9. A better question by Safety+Cap · · Score: 3, Interesting
    Linux will overtake Windows as the number one operating system within the next three years.

    How many years before the server/desktop OS becomes irrelevant? The apps make the platform valuable, not the OS.

    --
    Yeah, right.
    1. Re:A better question by bonch · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Welcome to the value of Mono and .NET.

  10. what it takes by SuperBanana · · Score: 5, Insightful
    There's some interesting tidbits on what it takes to be an industry analyst as well

    Anyone who has read more than 2-3 reports from the "big boys" like Gartner can easily answer that one. Not much, save zero morals/integrity.

    I worked for a company which dealt exclusively with whitepapers written by the big analyst houses. The reports were widely known to be staggeringly poor, often blatantly wrong. It was hardly surprising that they were a royal pain in the ass to deal with on a technical level; getting them to use FTP to upload their content was nearly impossible. IT industry experts who can't figure out FTP. Special.

    I've seen numerous comments here on /., on stories about both pro and anti linux analyst reports, talking about how much of a joke these companies are. Most of the analyst groups do huge amounts of "commissioned analysis", which is then passed off as being legitimate, unbiased analysis- when it is nothing of the sort.

    Analyst groups have turned into little more than for-hire technical marketing (the computer industry's version of "military intelligence") who spew out documents just technical enough to impress/confuse the top brass.

    1. Re:what it takes by Ryandav · · Score: 2, Insightful

      say what you will about the analysts.

      all over-generalizations are wrong.

      Some of what they say HAS to be right, as it says in the interview, you don't make it long by making lots of mistakes. you have to get it right, most of the time. and every time that it counts.

      the reason, you might notice if you read the article, that she is quoted in a media source and then later introduced to Linus, Perens, et al is because she holds POWER. she has a position of advising the people who spend _very_ large sums of money. And when they ask for some fancy high-priced advice, this is who they call. they don't poll the head of IT, they dont ask the people answering the phones, and they sure as hell don't get Commander Taco to post up an article and see what Slashdot readers think....

      they call this lady. and other people like her. so remember who gets paid to give their opinion for a living, and who spends their freetime cruising a website for geeks making posts about "industry analysts".

      --
      Check my Go-related blog for beginners: DGD
    2. Re:what it takes by 0x0d0a · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Ya?

      NASA operates a serious marketing engine now (not that I can blame them, since they keep getting their money taken away if they don't) -- all those "beautiful pictures of cosmic objects" are usually a bunch of radiation grabbed from somewhere up in the X-ray range that are then rammed through a mapping program, enhanced and composited, and finally fed to Photoshop or whatever image manipulation program until they look really pretty. The glowing swaths of orange breaking into seas of purple fog and stuff like that, the sort of thing that sci-fi authors sometimes get romantic about, is little more than a tribute to the artistic ability of the folks at NASA. Real astronomy isn't all that exciting or pretty, even if it is scientifically significant and an impressive body of work.

      It's hard to get people to donate money for worthy causes like the EFF without engaging in scare tactics. People are pretty lethargic.

      Mass media is a wonderful example of marketing -- the newspaper is trying to make news exciting so that they can sell subscripts, hold close enough to the truth so that readers will continue to be able to treat the paper as unvarnished truth, and the newspaper's sources are providing information in such a manner as to promote their own agenda.

      Research, IT, organizations in companies market themselves to the head honchos for budget. Each individual person is trying to sell themselves to move up on the ladder.

      Everything involves marketing these days (well, I guess it always did, but mass media improved the payoff of spending effort on good marketing). It's kinda depressing, but it's kinda hard to motivate people without taking advantage of quirks of the psyche.

  11. What Lies Ahead for Linux... by timecop · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Oh no.
    Linux has been "overtaking windows in the next 3 years" for at least the last 6 years,
    probably more. Don't get me wrong. I'm all for running Linux on some non-critical servers.
    But on desktop it's a freaking joke. I mean, you still can't play multiple sounds in Linux
    at the same time (unless you use a laggy userland daemon that takes a second to unpause your mp3,
    or buy a "supported" audio card with hardware mixing). For some reason Linus has a problem with
    putting kernel audio mixer (something Windows had since Win98 (and probably '95 but I'm not too sure))
    into kernel-mode, so now all "desktop linux" users are stuck with playing one audio stream at a time.
    Even FreeBSD, a much less "desktop" oriented OS (at least it isn't claiming to be "the windows killer"
    on the desktop every few months), has kernel audio mixing support since like 5.x-CURRENT. So this
    was one tiny nitpick about audio, something people on "desktop" will probably need sooner or later.
    How about video? Windows supports almost every known video card out of the box, while to get any kind
    of decent graphics in Linux you need to buy a "supported" video card. How many "corporate desktops"
    you know of that run on exotic "custom ordered" hardware? They all use precanned HP/Dell/Whatever
    desktops with generic onboard video and audio. Unless Linux will automatically without *any* problems
    installs on this class of hardware, forget using it for corporate desktops.

    And to sum this up, I guess the real reason Linux isn't going to be overtaking anything "in the next
    3 years", is the group mentality of Linux users in general. There are literally hundreds of half-assed
    "distributions" of Linux. And new ones seem to be popping up at an amazing speed. Compare that to
    the *BSD family, where there is only one "distribution" for each flavor (FreeBSD, NetBSD, OpenBSD) and
    once you know one, you should have no problems migrating to any other *BSD family. In Linux, every
    distribution seems to want to invent their own packaging system, configuration system, etc etc.
    People, this is not how you win users. You win users by creating a standard, easy to use system.
    Forget the 100's of distributions. Create a single standard and make everyone use it. Then, only then
    you might have some chance at a "desktop OS".

    1. Re:What Lies Ahead for Linux... by AsnFkr · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Dude, of course you need "supported" hardware to run Linux. Most of the hardware is created with the mind set that it will be used on Windows based machines because it holds the market share. Out of the zillions of different hardware configurations out there I'd have to say the developers for Linux are doing a really awesome job at keeping up with supporting new hardware that comes out. There is no way they can write drivers for EVERYTHING without vendor support...which won't come until Linux has a larger market share..(ahem..chicken or egg?). As far as your grip about sound...I have run Creative SB16's, Live!, and Audigys along with a nforce2 based audio chipset without a problem. Perhaps you don't know how to use tools that are at your disposal properly.

    2. Re:What Lies Ahead for Linux... by trewornan · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Forget the 100's of distributions.


      We have two major desktops: KDE and Gnome (as well as the window managers) - the result is competition between them and they feed of each others advances and ideas. We have mozilla, konqueror and galeon - same result. Kopete and Gaim, Evolution and Kmail, etc and etc, all stengthen each other.


      This pattern is repeated all over the OSS environment . . . you have completely missed the truth: diversity is *good* not bad.

    3. Re:What Lies Ahead for Linux... by 13Echo · · Score: 2, Informative

      Linux has "kernel audio mixing support" if your hardware supports it. Stop buying cheapo DirectX audio chips that rely on software mixers and you won't have a problem. Your crappy integrated i810 has problems for a reason.

      Also, I can't think of any video chips these days that aren't supported. Everything from ATI/nVidia/PowerVR/S3/Intel/etc., has some 3D support through either opensource or closed drivers. Hell, even the SGI Volari chips have Linux drivers. Talk about obscure.

    4. Re:What Lies Ahead for Linux... by Brandybuck · · Score: 5, Informative

      Windows supports almost every known video card out of the box

      Actually, Windows supports very little video hardware out of the box. The last three video cards I had required me to install the manufacturer provided drivers in order to get out of VGA mode.

      --
      Don't blame me, I didn't vote for either of them!
    5. Re:What Lies Ahead for Linux... by MeNeXT · · Score: 2, Insightful
      That's what Apple said when IBM published the specs to the hardware. Which user in his right mind would want to open up the box and change the components. Now my father in law who is a doid in computers, changes his video card.



      I have been doing more with my system than I would be able to if I was running windows. Blood is not my thing, so most games produced today FOR THE pc do not intrest me. I have Nintendo and Playstation and they are fine for gaming.



      I have a P166 as my firewall, my webserver and my mail server. I have my kids computer. I have a laptop. I have my main computer. They are upgraded on a regular basis. Now if I wished to acomplish this on windows I would have to give up almost a years salary, and how many nights patching and downloading anti virus. I did that for my employer and it just is brain dead. What is missing? What is windows offering that you cant find in Linux? Drivers? Drivers? They don't always work in Windows. How many people here have never had trouble with a driver on Windows?


      Linux is harder to use because you have more choices. How many cars can you choose from? Choice is good.



      How many desktops run Linux? I would say over 3%. How do I know? Because all the systems which I have are counted as 1. I only buy 1 copy. Where do they get their 3%? From sales. How many people only load one system with their CD? I don't know, but I know that I am not the only one. How did Linux acomplish this when other comercial systems failed, ie Be, NeXT, O/S2.....? Choice. Choice. Choice. CHOICE. Linux will not pass Windows in 3 years but it's allready passed apple acording to some estimates. It sure as hell giving Windows a run for it's money..../RANT

      --
      DRM? No thanks, I'll just get it somewhere else...
  12. Too Optimistic by Nerd+With+Nalgene · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I went into reading this article skeptical because of the "3 years to taking over the world" comment.
    I realized, of course, that it was really talking about "new server shipments". However, I came out of reading it still skeptical because this "analyst" undoubtedly has such a huge personal stake in telling people that linux will take over the world. If linux died tomorrow, she would be out of a job. What do you think her analysis is going to be?

    --


    "as if nothing were solid...and that would be the end of the world, not fire and brimstone, but goo."--Rand
  13. Re:Why do I care what she thinks? by rokzy · · Score: 2, Funny

    well, once upon this time there was this guy who said "I don't have a physics background, I process patent applications..."

  14. Servers - maybe, Desktop - not ready by Uninen · · Score: 2, Informative

    She's saying that for desktop "the timeframe is more like the next two years". I just don't see this happening. There's too many usability issues with Linux desktop today.

    I really would like to see some serious co-operation with KDE and GNOME teams, for example, to get their software working more uniform way, and more importantly - to get OS developers realize that they need to focus more on usability and some common interface guidelines instead of just adding new features on every new release.

  15. Re:Don't expect it everywhere by Strudelkugel · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Servers, on the other hand, should be linux's play ground

    I used to think that, but after doing some work with Win2003, I'm not so sure.

    --
    Imagine how much harder physics would be if electrons had feelings! -Feynman, maybe
  16. Linux's evolutionary struggle to the top... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Microsoft is an "unstoppable" mega-corporation. Any legitimate competition is crushed by the might of Microsoft. Try to develop a for-profit operating system to compete with Windows and you'll get crushed. Try and develop a for-profit word-processor to compete with Word and you'll get crushed. Microsoft has reached the top of the food chain.

    Legitimate for-profit companies cannot compete against Microsoft. Due to this fact, "free" software, such as Linux and Open-Office, has bubbled to the surface as the only possible contender in the evolutionary struggle against Microsoft. Providing "free" software is the only way to possibly compete against Microsoft. There would not have been a need for "free" software if Microsoft had not crushed all possible means of fair competition.

    This lack of competition also hurts Microsoft because: a competitor, in general, only needs to be better than his next closest rival. If there are no close competitors then Microsoft does not need to improve. If it does not improve it will stagnate, whither, and die. It will be overrun by the weeds of small "free" software projects just waiting to get out from underneath the shadow of the mighty giant Microsoft.

  17. Re:Why do I care what she thinks? by mrklin · · Score: 3, Insightful
    Don't be ignorant.

    My majors were chemistry and Asian Studies in college. Am I working in a chemical factory in Asia now? No. Am I a geek reading Slashdot at work and replying to you? Hell yeah!

    If you cannot go beyond judging a book by its covers, you should not be judging.

  18. not only desktop share by dkode · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Probably blow my good karma with this, but oh well

    I agree with everyone that Linux has become more usable and more security oriented(depending on the admin), but the bottom line is that as far as corporations and windows in the workplace goes, I doubt linux will grab a significant user base because of some basic reasons:

    1. Alot of corporations will cling to windows because 99.9% of their userbase is on windows right now. They realize that there is cheaper alternatives out there (linux) but they rather stay with what they are using because it will cause less headaches for the IT dept. and operations as a whole will run smoother without messing with the OS that they are using.

    2. Users in the workplace are comfortable with windows because it is what they know. Applications are not quite as cryptic and windows is truly a morons operating system which is what the vast majority of users in the workplace are.

    3. The cost of hiring systems administrators is pretty close of linux vs. windows, but the cost of deploying software and the simplification that microsoft has deployed in this area is still untouched.

    again, my argument is staged more to linux in the workplace and not in the end users hands which is probably where linux has more potential to grow.

    prepare to see this posting get modded all over the place :)

    --

    Those who trade in their freedom for security, deserve neither.
  19. Re:Slashdot editors are stupid by NiceGeek · · Score: 2, Informative

    Ok...I'm calling it either flamebait or ignorance. You do realize that the stuff in quotes is from the submitter right?

  20. Re:Why do I care what she thinks? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    While this person is certainly a moron, I think that if you judge CS-worthiness on whether it was a person's major in school, you're doing much of the free software community great discredit. The fact of the matter is, most CS-majors couldn't code their way out of a wet paper bag -- much less solve a problem elegantly. CS majors are like art majors, you know: just because you studied the technique doesn't mean you have the talent. Talent is something you are born with, and is grown by love of a subject. Not by university classes and a desire to benefit financially from what you erroneously thought would be a hot field when you graduated.

    Sadly, most CS majors are like this.

    Further, many of the most brilliantly savvy computer people I've met studied other stuff in school. Only stupid people excel at only one thing.

  21. Nobody but Slashdotters care about that by bonch · · Score: 4, Insightful

    What people will care about is, "Can this run my digital camera? Can I run the Sims on this? No? Oh. Convicted monopolist? I don't care, I don't use my computer that much anyway. I just want to play games and use my camera..."

    1. Re:Nobody but Slashdotters care about that by N1KO · · Score: 2, Funny

      I'm guessing that means the PS3 will be the one to take over windows' market share whenever it comes out.

    2. Re:Nobody but Slashdotters care about that by bluGill · · Score: 2, Interesting

      That problem is self solving. If Linux had 90% market share everything would work with linux, while Windows users would complain that nothing supports there system. In other words the situation Macs re in today. (they support nearly everything, but the exceptions are common enough and very annoying.

      Best would be the situation like the early 80s when all the good programs had versions for the APPLE II, Atari, C=64, and IBM PC. Or at least some combonation of the above, supporting all was rare, but most companies supported more than one. And that in the days when we didn't have a single command to re-compile, the source was re-written for each. (often in assembly) There were exceptions of course, but they just prove the rule.

    3. Re:Nobody but Slashdotters care about that by dtfinch · · Score: 3, Informative

      Just to test that, today I plugged one of my digital cameras (Concord EasyToo) into my pc running Suse Linux 9.0 for the first time, having never used a camera with Linux ever before. It detected the camera immediately, and automatically placed a camera icon on my desktop for me to browse the photos.

  22. MS: Bigger isn't better by argoff · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The USSR, the plantation system, the railroad barrons, the oil barrons, the shipping tycoons.

    Alot of times people have this misconception that something can be too big, too huge, too much talent and resources behind it to fall from greatness. This isn't true. How many times have we herd that "MS won't let it happen" ... Well the fact is, MS's isn't competing against an opperating system, they are competing against a superior paradigm - and their half trillion market cap is nothing compaired to the yearly output of global industry. If they don't go with the flow, they will get squissed like a bug. like it or not.

  23. Are you kidding? That's the tip of the iceberg by bonch · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Anyone remember that study put out that showed Linux was the most-breached OS on the Internet? The headline was magically changed to "Most Attacked" on the Internet.

    Or that big headline breathlessly declaring that "Microsoft Violates Human Rights In China," because the oppressive Chinese government uses Windows. Never mind that China has its own custom Linux distribution, and Red Hat changed flags to sell there. But we never got an "OSS Violates Human Rights" article.

    Or when a new user-ran executable mail attachment worm comes out, and the headline is "New Microsoft Hole" (real article).

    Before I'm accused of being a Microsoft lackey, I use Gentoo and FreeBSD 5.2.1, and I think Linux is fun to play with, but yes, I do switch to Windows to get things done. I even use it to code PHP and SQL using Dreamweaver MX 2004. Just saying I use whatever gets the job done, be it Linux, BSD, or Windows.

    What bugs me is that Taco says Slashdot is his hobby site, completely ignoring that it declares itself as "news" and has become the bastion for geek tech opinion on the Internet. A lot of newbies come here and form their worldview based entirely on Slashdot headlines, hence the foaming-at-the-mouth anti-"M$" and "file sharing is free advertising" zealots. To ignore the influence of this website (it takes out entire sites just by posting their links!) and continue to post misleading articles, often rife with falsehoods, typos, and duplicates, is just silly. But then again, here I am reading it.

  24. Microsoft made me do it...thank goodness. by acousticiris · · Score: 5, Interesting

    This is pretty simple to sum up in my mind. Although my desktop is still running windows at work, at home I rarely see it.

    But when asked the question why I have moved to Open Office from Microsoft Office, and why I have moved to Linux from Windows, what is the answer?
    It's mostly about rights and freedom. I'm not yet willing to admit that I am a full out FSF supporter, though I have been a supporter of the Open Source movement. Microsoft's licensing tactics (and not just theirs but the general tactics of many other folks have led me as far away from proprietary "treat-the-custer-as-a-theif" software as I can possibly get.
    Linux is great, and it has been an incredible learning experience (I've honestly never felt so dumb sitting in front of a command prompt as I did during my first Gentoo installation).

    I was never a *NIX user. I never had any desire to run anything other than Windows because I was happy with the product.

    But they forced me to look elsewhere, and when I did I learned what I was missing.
    So IMO, what lies ahead for linux is more users...and I don't believe that is limited to the server. From the desktop side, the strides that have been made in KDE and GNOME in the last couple of revisions have made them dramatically nicer to work with. From the server side...not having to have a GUI running on a server is quite a bit more efficient.

    Back in the day I remeber Microsoft recommending you change the screen saver to the black screen instead of one of those OpenGL screen savers on your Windows NT SQL server because the screen saver would bury your processor. I couldn't help but think why do I have this huge GUI running on what is supposed to resemble a somewhat powerful database server?!!

    --
    "God is dead!" - Nietzsche
    "Nietzsche is dead!" - God
  25. Analysts are often wrong by wshwe · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Industry analysts are often wrong. If they were on target all of the time they wouldn't give out advice. They'd instead make a killing on the stock market.

  26. Earliest citation for "linux overtaking windows" by Twid · · Score: 5, Interesting
    Since you can sort by date on groups.google.com, I went looking for the earliest quote on "linux overtaking windows". Here you go!

    link

    There was an interesting editorial in one of the workstation 'zines a few months ago. If I remember correctly, their observation was that in 1996, UNIX workstations sold about 700,000 units, NT boxes sold about 250,000 units, and Linux PCs sold about 100,000 units. However, they projected that in 1997, the final figures would be UNIX workstations: 750,000, NT workstations: 1 million, and Linux PC's: about 500,000. On which growth curve, Linux overtakes the entire UNIX workstation market in number of units sold some time in 1998, and by late '98 is nipping at NT's heels -- possibly overtaking NT, if NT 5.0 is delayed any further (snort).


    Replace "NT" with "Longhorn" and change the dates and it still works!!! :) :) :)

    --
    - "When you want something with all your heart, the entire universe conspires to give it to you" -Paulo Coelho
  27. That's right, we said lies. by DonnyCarcharo · · Score: 2, Funny

    What Lies Ahead For Linux!

    This punctuation brought to you by your friends at Microsoft.

    --
    -- Don Carcharo
  28. After a few years... by jpsowin · · Score: 2, Funny

    After a few years of every seeing the infamous "Linux on the desktop in ___ years!" every couple weeks, I start to read these stories like this:

    Here's an interview with Stacey Quandt, a Linux and open source industry analyst. She explains why she feels Linux will overtake Windows--blah blah blah blah--skip to next story

    Okay, I even add: Linux on the desktop? Haven't they used OS X yet? ;)

  29. As an ex-analyst... by LinuxParanoid · · Score: 4, Insightful

    As an ex-analyst who moved back to software development, I would add a few other things for my fellow Slashdotters:

    1) If you want to be an good analyst, you need to be able to write English; preferrably fairly easily and fairly well. Speaking skills can be learned on the job. Overcoming writers block probably can't.

    2) Tech skills can give an analyst an important filter and BS detector which can be a competitive advantage versus other analysts. However, ability to communicate with techies does not pay off. Techies aren't spending thousands of dollars for insight. Managers are. Ability to communicate with management and market the value of the service you provide is the paramount skill for an analyst.

    3) In my view, the important milestones that lie ahead for Linux all have to do with success as a database server. That's where the most critical business data is, that's where the money is, and if a company trusts their data to Linux, what will they not trust Linux for? It's also a technology space that's complementary to Linux's existing strengths in webservers and web services, and it plays well to Linux's developer (not end-user)-orientation while avoiding the desktop usability and UI-training issues where Linux continues to play catch-up. In terms of specific milestones, I would track the percentage of applications being deployed in Fortune 500 with Linux hosting the database. And I would track the growth of applications employing open source databases. A Linux firmly entrenched as a database platform is a Linux not easily dislodged by Microsoft-induced desktop trendiness. Witness the billions upon billions continually invested in mainframes and AS/400 if you doubt me.

    4) I'm personally agnostic about whether Linux will ever make headway on the desktop. If pressed for a conclusion, I confess that I doubt it, although if I was afraid of the Linux advocate hordes, I might couch it like Stacy did: "potential for a lot of innovation"... "a lot of potential for Linux to become a much stronger play there"... "next milestone to look for is when Linux takes 10% of the market" ... "In that time we'll see tremendous growth" ...'"Tremendous" means that we're going to see it move from being a fringe market..." I suppose I agree with Stacy about her actual conclusions, but the phrasing struck me as being about as optimistically phrased as one could expect given the underlying statements about Linux on the desktop.

    More constructively, in terms of adding to that 'desktop milestone' analysis, another milestone to watch for is when Linux desktop developers spend more time trying to understand how the Mac OS X guys tackle the usability problem than they spend trying to copy the Windows approach blindly in the techy details while missing the bigger picture.

    I used to get paid 20k... now I'll settle for 2 karma. Ah the price of doing what you love... ;-)

    --LP

  30. Re:Don't expect it everywhere by yuri+benjamin · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Easy-to-use for joe-idiot is whatever he learns first - after that everything else is hard because it's different from what he learned first.

    I've seen plenty of complete first-time computer users totally confused by the windows interface.

    --
    You make the mistake of thinking you can educate the fundamental stupidity out of people. You can't.
  31. Re:depends. by Frizzle+Fry · · Score: 2, Informative
    Longhorn's interface pisses people off too much, and they crave a more traditional interface

    Do you really think there's any chance that longhorn won't give you the option of using the traditional interface? XP not only has the "classic" theme to look like older versions of windows, but still has progman.exe (the program manager from win 3.1).
    --
    I'd rather be lucky than good.
  32. Re:Don't expect it everywhere by zulux · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I used to think that, but after doing some work with Win2003, I'm not so sure.

    Win2003 is ok. It's just a version of Windows that sucks 20% less.

    My main problem with Win2003 is that ther'es hardly any upgrade path.

    With *nix you can grow as you need to from Linux to FreeBSD to Solaris to IRIX to AIX.

    Hell, Linux has it's own upgrade path - Linux on ARM -> Linux on Intel -> Linux on PowerPC -> Linux on Sparc -> Linux on POWER5/6 etc.

    With Windows, once you outgrow your 4 way Intel box - you're screwed. (We'll there Windows Advanced Server - but from what I've seen, its a bitch to keep running and the hardware it runs on sucks)

    --

    Moneyed corporations, non-working 'poor' and criminal prisoners are turning productive citizens into tax-slaves.

  33. Interesting, but... by Axel2001 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    How long have Linux buffs been saying that "In a few years, Linux will overtake Windows..."

    It's a noble goal, and it would be awesome if it happened. But the reality is that, overtaking Windows is a goal that 1) Is fairly unrealistic in the short-term, and 2) Is fairly pointless.

    Why would you want Linux to become the "normal" OS? I always thought that one of the main advantages of using Linux was because it was different. Something unique and that a lot of people haven't even heard of.

    Linux is becoming commercialized. All the press about Linux now comes from companies who want to sell their wares, not give them away.

    Maybe I want to compile my kernel to get support for sound. Maybe I want to manually edit my X config files, bypassing all warnings about my monitor bursting into flames. Maybe, just maybe I like that sort of thing... and I don't want it to be dumbed down to be like Windows, I don't want it to ride the golden cow god of popularity all the way to the bank, and replace the image of a Bill Gates as the borg with Tux as the icehouse penguin.

    1. Re:Interesting, but... by tmbg37 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      But you see, you are forgetting the beauty of Linux. Even if someday Linux does become a desktop OS like Windows, you will still be free to choose a more nerdy distribution. Even today you can choose between easy distros (Fedora, Mandrake, Ark, etc) and more advanced distros (Slak, Debian, Gentoo, etc.)

      --
      This comment was thought up very late at night and does not necessarily reflect my views at a more reasonable hour.
    2. Re:Interesting, but... by SuiteSisterMary · · Score: 2, Funny

      Actually, I found the best way to get monitor information was to download the Windows driver, crack it open in notepad, and crib them....

      --
      Vintage computer games and RPG books available. Email me if you're interested.
  34. I respectfully disagree by krray · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Here's why against your arguments:

    1. One of these Blaster type worms will come along. AV software won't catch it while it migrates through web servers (and then clients using IE), also via Outlook, and of course the direct connections. Login ... reformat. When entire chunks of companies are looking at nothing but the BIOS info they'll SERIOUSLY re-think the whole matter.

    1b. Another real option (based on Microsoft's history of code writing) is that one of these updates that comes along -- which EVERYBODY is trying to install quick and fast ... will completely trash the system leaving you staring at nothing but ... BIOS.

    2. OO or WordPerfect (for Linux) sure don't seem cryptic to any of my users. Click File, Open, ... Sure, the need for better GUI based configuration routines are being worked on and coming. I will say there is nothing like coding for Linux sitting in front of OS X. :)

    3. Have you deployed large scale software roll outs for Linux? Or patched hundreds of systems that needed it due to, oh my gosh, a flaw that was found (and typically fixed if it is serious within 24 hours)? I've done it for Windows, Linux, and OS X. OS X wins hands down (GUI or command line is trivial to deal with), Linux can easily be made to work "magic" ... while Windows will sometimes work, sometimes won't. Some Windows applications won't work right, or at all. Heck, some Windows patches require you to run around manually rebooting problem systems -- I've seen 1/10th the headaches dealing with NBM systems.

    May you be modded up ... and watch as business WILL roll with Linux ... and care to bet what the home users follow with? I can't count how many Linux distro CD's I've sent home with people who's 95 or Me box did this or that and won't work right anymore... One of the reasons Microsoft made it to the top was BECAUSE of the pirating going on. Ssshhhh, here, take it. It'll be OK. Well ... we, the geeks, FUCKED IT UP. We, the geeks, WILL fix it. The best part? It's not illegal this time...as Microsoft is pinching their users with activation keys and phoning home.

  35. Re:Don't expect it everywhere by ameoba · · Score: 2, Flamebait

    It's a sad day when a comment that essentially says "I like windows" without an explaination gets modded up Slashdot.

    --
    my sig's at the bottom of the page.
  36. The way forward machine to April 29th, 2007 by SquierStrat · · Score: 2, Funny

    Wow, slashdot has a new story saying how an analyst thinks linux will over take windows in the next 3 days.

    Come on folks, I LOVE linux, but haven't we heard this song and dance before?

    --
    Derek Greene
  37. I propose a test! by GoClick · · Score: 2, Interesting

    We will take some random people in the following magnitudes and administer an OS test to see who's really king. Now I agree that Windows has a greater advantage because of market share, HOWEVER that's the real world and the one we play in.

    30, 9th graders selected at random
    30, Fresh high school grads
    60, members of the general population
    30, persons age 30-60
    30, persons age 60+
    30 small business _owners_ not in IT

    FYI this is 210 people.

    We will have them attempt the following tasks Using the latest versions of
    WindowsXP,
    RedHat,
    Linspire
    OS X

    Participants will be timed and rewarded with a prize if they succeed in their tasks, say a candy bar (to simulate a work environment where they would get money)

    There will be two tasks to do 1/2 of each group will do each

    The first half will have to complete the tasks without any documentation other than what is provided standard ON SCREEN.

    The second half with a full printed manual including screen shots and detailed step by step instructions

    Our tests will be

    Install the OS (I realize this isn't realistic cause every Mac already comes with it but it'll have to do)
    Create 5 users
    Log in as one of the users and complete the following tasks
    Write a complex document with some formatting and colors and save it as a HTML document
    configure e-mail and send that HTML document to someone
    make a spread sheet and save it to a location and upload it to a website

    Users will have to find and install all the software to do these things either durring the OS install or from the Internet, they can make 2 phone calls durring the test

    Then we'll see what OS is really easiest and fastest and cheapest, we'll assume these people all cost $0.002 per second... Meaning that the commercial OSes already start with quite an expensive handicap.

    I'm sure with some more time and thought one could make this more fair but I personally expect OSX (Followed by Linspire) to win the on screen only event by a wide margin even considering the heavy price tag of the OS (we'll just assume a PC that costs as much G4 to level the feild) Most of us have seen a newbie use OS X and it's almost like they know what their doing..... For the well documented test I would expect Linspire to win followed by RedHat.

    Now test could be expanded to setting up a small office network typical to a small business, I once again expect OS X to clean up

    1. Re:I propose a test! by corsec67 · · Score: 2, Insightful
      I am sorry but your test is already biased against windows, and not due to how you calculate money:

      Create 5 users

      Log in as one of the users and complete the following tasks

      that would be good, but not very feasable in windows. Realistically, it would be great if people did that when they install the OS, but realistically it doesn't, and especially if the OS came with the computer.

      --
      If I have nothing to hide, don't search me
  38. Re:What idiot modded this up? by Halfbaked+Plan · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Linux is killing proprietary Unix and people cheer it on. Just look at the Sun article from today.

    It's also strong in webspace, at least the webspace that represents throwaway home pages on the Internet. Linux and Apache aren't making that much headway for corporate Intranets. And that's the space where money is spent, at least for web servers.

    Linux is commodifying the Unix-like software market in ways that will drive it into becoming a captive semi-proprietary OS in the places where there is funding. So it'll the same as a Solaris or AIX box in a few years.

    Except you'll be able to get the source code of the particular kernel fork you're running. Except the layers people interact with, similar to the situation with MacOS X.

    To the degree that 'desktop Linux' can become a success, it will be to the degree that it can be made proprietary, highly designed, polished and sold by a single vendor. The traditional Unix vendors did the same thing a deacade ago. Nothing new here.

    --
    resigned
  39. Best quote ever by 0x0d0a · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Because analysts tend to play the role of pundit they can come across as insightful or just plain idiotic. [note: fixed typo on "plain"]

    Best quote ever. Darn, it's refreshing to find an honest, non-pompous analyst.

    Yes, one thing. I go to a lot of events where I can be the only woman in the room with a bunch of guys, and that's fine. I have no issues with that, really, except that I just think that more diversity in the Linux ecosystem is always good. I think it is great that Pamela Jones created Groklaw. It would be great to see more women developers involved too- there are a few, but seeing more of them would actually be better. The growth of Linux in India, Brazil, China and other countries may foster an increase of women in the community. I think that's probably one of the things that, if I could effect any change, it would be to encourage more women to enter the Linux ecosystem.

    That is actually a facinating point.

    I've tended to find that as a very rough, general rule, women tend to do a better job of getting along with people than men, and take longer to get angry. If I had a choice between a male or female manager, and was choosing only based on ability to get people to work together and only with knowledge of the gender, I'd probably pick the female manager.

    This is especially true for the open-source world, where nobody is *made* to work together. Communities form around how well people deal with each other and work together.

    My guess as to why there are few female developers comes down to drive. This isn't that there aren't driven females, but there is a difference in the psychology here. I was reading an article (listed on fark and Metafilter) on why many fields of science generally have breakthroughs done by relatively young people -- developments and interest in work for the sake of work and glory fall off after a certain point. The article drew a link between drive to impress females and the attempt to rack up accomplishments under ones name. (I got a kick out of this, and it stuck in my head -- apparently, my subconscious has been trying hard to improve my sex life by convincing me to code up new algorithms). Anyway, point is that there's at least some research evidence for the male personality being an easier fit for OSS.

    Linus' claim for support of "a law to get geeks laid" could have been OSS's undoing. :-)

  40. Nepotism fuelld career progression by BillsPetMonkey · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Giga management didn't see a linear progression from call center staff to future IT analyst. In fact several times Giga management took pains to emphasize that moving from the call center to work as a research associate with a senior analyst was not a sure thing. Six months into the job a vice Giga president and senior analyst asked me to give him the right of first refusal to become his research associate.

    So, one day she was a call center staff with a redundant degree in Mandarin. The next day, *ging* she's an IT Analyst. I'm sure there are CS graduates who would be very interested in how that happened.

    Hmmm. I think we're not getting the full picture there. Any relatives / "associates" in the company by any chance?

    --
    "It's not your information. It's information about you" - John Ford, Vice President, Equifax
  41. Who Cares??? by pandrijeczko · · Score: 3, Interesting
    Do we keep having to have constant reference to this non-existent competition between Windows & Linux?

    Knowledgeable users will choose the best software for a specific job they need to do and the best knowledgeable users are those that take the time to investigate both Windows, Linux & other OSes as providing the possible solutions to computing problems that they need to overcome.

    It is more important to focus our attention on Open Source software to ensure that the scourge of proprietary formats is wiped from the face of our planet. There is nothing wrong with using commercial software as long as there is an interoperability with Open Source software such that everyone can exchange the data they want to with any people that they need to.

    I fully accept that there are security issues in Windows just as much as there are learning curve concerns with Linux.

    But the Windows community should embrace Open Source software much more readily than it currently does - for example, Mozilla/Firefox should now be the number one browser because it is free, available on most platforms, and conforms to the HTML standard much more than IE has ever done and will do.

    Furthermore, we should all stop being hypocrites. If we are not prepared to pay the going rates for commercial software then we should all actively seek to use (and better) the Open Source alternatives. It is wrong to sit back and wait for OpenOffice.org (for example) to reach 100% compatibility with MS Office while using an illegal copy of MS Office - instead, we should use OOO with equal passion and give our opinions (and time) to the OOO developers to ensure that the product (and others) go in the direction that we need them to go.

    It's now the time where we should all grow up a little and take some responsibility for ourselves and how run our computers. MS exists because there is a demand for their products and, if you don't like their products or the way they do things, the best way to get them to change is not give them your money... it's that simple.

    I still use Windows 2000 and MS Office because I quite like both as products and because my place of work provides both as tools to me - however, I use Linux more because I've worked hard to learn it and am fortunate to work in a company that embraces Linux also. Going forwards, I will strive to migrate fully to Linux because I personally loathe MS's business strategy and will never pay them (or anyone else) money to access the data and information I already own due to proprietary format licenses.

    But in the mean time, I have both work and leisure activities to do on my computers and I am not going to make either harder purely because media pundits believe every computer user is on one or the other side of a non-existent Windows v Linux war.

    Be aware of some of the dangers of commercial software, sure, but otherwise use what's best for the job you need to do - as a result, you will be more efficient and find your computing experiences much more fun.

    --
    Gentoo Linux - another day, another USE flag.
  42. Copy and paste in Windows using the mouse by mrchaotica · · Score: 2, Funny
    Who says you have to use the keyboard to copy and paste in Windows? All you have to do is
    1. highlight the text
    2. right click
    3. select "copy" from the context menu
    4. click to move the cursor to where you want to paste
    5. right click
    6. select "paste" from the context menu
    It's obvious that that's just as easy as highlighting and middle-clicking, now isn't it?!
    --

    "[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz

  43. Re:What a load of out-of-context-crap by incandescant · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "Can they possibly turn this site into any more of a pro-linux rag? Is it at all possible? I guess we'll just have to wait and see... "

    <grr>
    If it bothers you that much just stop pointing your browser at /.

    It really bugs me all the people who moan about /.'s articles yet still come and read them and take the time to comment

    </grr>

    --
    FOSS is the Future
  44. dangerous forecasts by moojin · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Does forecasting that Linux will overtake Windows in 3 years buy the Linux / Open Source movement anything? Will this forecast only bring negative sentiment from the I.T. industry if it is untrue (after 3 years) or if too many of these forecasts are made?

    I'm personally getting tired of all these forecasts that say Linux will overtake Windows. Not because I do not believe that they will come true, but because people have been making these types of forecasts for quite a while and at least half of the time they do not come true. I am positive that Linux will overtake Windows someday in the future. I do not know when, but either way I will be happy when it happens.

    After two years of active advocacy, my company has decided to start a Linux Pilot Program. Yes, the tide is coming in.

    Andrew

    --
    Why did I lurk so long before registering for a Slashdot account? I could have had a Slashdot ID of less than 100000.
  45. test by Dogbert2 · · Score: 2, Funny

    i'm just testing to see if the reply feature works