Slashdot Mirror
Sim Epidemic
Dotnaught writes "Scientific American has an intriguing story about EpiSims, an outbreak simulator. Designed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), it deals with a social networking of a different sort: 'To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann. She has short brushes with family members during breakfast and then with other commuters or carpoolers on her way to work. Depending on her job, she might meet dozens of people at work, with each encounter having a different duration, proximity and purpose.'"
I read an article in Popular Science a few months ago while waiting in the dentist office about a similar program developed by CERN. The main difference was that it was text based instead graphical. The coolest thing I saw about it was that they used it to re-enact the spread of the bubonic plaguge which killed so many people years ago. I think they were developing it for WHO and the associated organizations.
Be better in bed. Wikiafterdark!
Some more amusing ways to torture my Sims.
For a minute there, I thought this article was going to be about how millions of teenage girls are displaying frightening symptoms: siting inside all day instead of socializing, playing computer games all day, turning away from reality. I guess the Sims has the power to turn girls into guys. But that's not what this is about...
Something that understands why I am always blamed for spreading the Flu!
A friend of mine works with the WHO which has solicited many different people to do work like this for them. In light of all the terrorism talk and threats of bio-terrorism, we've had talks on this. Different universities etc. The problem with it is that no model is able to conform to historical records of various outbreaks well enough across the board to develop policy on. One model is highly based on an aids breakout of the 1980s or an asian flu epidemic, and the model fits well to it. But when the model is applied to different epidemics they don't work out. There are just so many factors differing by area, culture etc. Think close knit community vs big city. Also the way things are transmitted. You would have to have a different model for each scenario which is very difficult/costly. Until we can predict everything going into a situation these models aren't very useful.
Models working with more people is definitely a step forward, but just an improvement.
WikiAfterDark.com It's a sex wiki, go now!
Before I RTFA'd, I thought that people like Evangeline might have some problems coming up.
theres no torrent link?
When you're afraid to download music illegally in your own home, then the terrorists have won!
This type of thing may be good in the AIDs in Africa research that is going on. Being uncircumcised is big factor in the transmition of AIDs in Africa, and this technology may be used to predict where the next AIDs outbreak may occur.
s ed +aids+africa&btnG=Google+Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=uncircumci
I've always wanted an "Ebola" Mod for my Sims 2
I see that your link has been blocked by the CIA (presumably). Devious, and faster than I would have expected.
Chaos theory.
A decibel - a RELATIONSHIP between two values of POWER http://arts.ucsc.edu/EMS/Music/tech_background/TE-
It'll be like those films with outbreaks where you see the spread of red across the world.... maybe...
A copy of The Sims 2 ?
Child mutilation is not funny.
Especially for you.
To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann....
Of course, this is slashdot. If Ann was a slashdotter, her epidemiology would consist only of contact between Ann and her parents, at the dinner table, during the approximately 45 minutes per day that Ann leaves the cellar.
Perhaps it should read something like:
To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, one must not be a slashdotter. Imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann....
I have no problem with your religion until you decide it's reason to deprive others of the truth.
...until we see pestilence-riddled EpiSims characters featured on Mtv2 video mods?
Just keep watching Numb3rs then! I'm sure one of these weeks CBS will have the equation all figured out to solve ALL these types of problems. Everything is #'s!
Sounds a little like the Zombie Infection Simulator.
A tool like this could be adapted for some other fascinating uses:
Marketing (particularly the viral type)
Political meme simulation
Catching terrorists and other criminals through investigating their social linkage
Pharmacological demand forecasting
All technology has alternate uses - some good, some not...
You can't talk about Wikipedia's flaws on Wikipedia
So when will the SimEpidemic game be available from EA?
Things you think are in the Constitution, but are not.
Can one make a mod for Sims out of that? pleeease?
But still! At least be a little more inclusive. I feel excluded :(
*whimpers in a corner*
Zombie Simulator!
I was playing around with this zombie simulator about a week ago.
http://kevan.org/proce55ing/zombies/
Very similar idea. Watch how an infection spreads throughout a population. Be sure to check out the variations on the bottom of the page. There is one that lets you fight back with nukes, too.
I say why spend valuable research dollars studying real infections when we can have a ZOMBIE simulator for free? =)
Am I the only one that thinks we need a good pandemic to wipe out a lot of the population?
Am I the only one that thinks it's ridiculous for society to plunder untold millions..billions..trillions on keeping people who should be dead alive?
Am I the only one that believes that when I get to the point where I need 500 different medications to continue living my worthless life that I should probably be dead?
Am I the only one that believes that survival of the fittest is a good thing?
Am I the only one that believes that nature will find a way to fight back at some point no matter what when things are out of balance as they are now?
what I call a SIMplex! Badum bum!
Can I use this to figure out how best to spread my next cold to friends, family, and co-workers so I don't have to suffer alone?
-S
--- What parts of "shall make no law", "shall not be infringed", and "shall not be violated" don't you understand?
I was really hoping this article was going to be about some diseas which was wiping "The Sims" off the face off the planet... just my luck.
No smoking sigs indoors.
I read the headline as "Sin Epidemic." I was hoping I would catch it...
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a real useful invention.
We need to focus more on how to control a zombie outbreak.
That's all *I* really want to know.
This is going to be reposted as Epidemic Sim- watch for it!
Is there a version out there for us hand-of-God-wannabes to simulate outbreaks of dysentery in a highly-populated area? *splat*
Google is spamming slashdot now!! Google has turned into the bad guys!!
/retards
quick! start posting "google sux0r5" posts!
... till they come out with the "gay bathhouse" mod pack.
___
It's the end of my comment as I know it and I feel fine.
If I were a terrorist and wanted to start off a really good plague with something new, nasty, and specially engineered, I always thought handing out a few infected 20 dollar bills at various interstate highway Burger Kings or MacDonalds would be very effective.
Every car that comes after you becomes a new vector! And heading all over the place!
After all, it is basically a "WHO's on first" post.
___
It's the end of my comment as I know it and I feel fine.
Noone else seems to have asked the most important question of all. Where can we download it?
You have a few issues that you have to consider in any given model:
;-)
1) Vectors (i.e. sexually transmitted/blood-based infections like AIDS will behave differently than airborn-short-distance illnesses like SARS). This
2) Contagious exposure time: Ebola will be far less dangerous than HIV because it is much more quickly progressing.
These parameters will change the outcomes of the simulation.
A simulated epidemic, not an epidemic of simulations
LedgerSMB: Open source Accounting/ERP
http://www.ccs.lanl.gov/ccs5/apps/epid.shtmlp ://episims.lanl.gov/
htt
The ______ Agenda
The parent post was very funny, and should be moderated thusly, but it's definetely not insightful.
If your a moderator, please give yourself a slap upside the head. Thanks.
First off, here's a link to the EpiSims site at Los Alamos National Labs. They have a neat (250 meg) video showing smallprox propagation, as well as several graphs.
Here's a link to the general web page at LANL for Dynamic Simulation Science, which also includes information on things like simulation of transportation networks.
A google scholar search turns up a few interesting-looking research papers:
Structural and Algorithmic Aspects of Massive Social Networks (Eubank et al, 2004)
Understanding Large-Scale Social and Infrastructure Networks: ASimulation-Based Approach (Barrett et al)
BioWar: A City-Scale Multi-Agent Network Model of Weaponized Biological Attacks
Isn't this the new expansion that just came out for Sims 2?
So we can all play EpiSims!
19.35 - You are in your parents basement. It's very dark. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.
'up'
19.40 - You are in your parents hall. You hear voices to the east.
'east'
19.45 - The room is full of people. You are likely to catch the plague.
'mingle'
19.50 - Your aunt kisses you.
'use handkerchief'
19.55 - You feel dizzy
'South'
20.00 - You are in the kitchen. You have caught the plague. You feel very hot.
'South'
20.05 - You are in the garden. You are dead.
Lars T.
To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck
I've been seeing this all over the place. You wan't us to boycott them, tell us what they did!
Give us the dirt, man!
And this is why government but have the power to lock up anyone without trial. ;)
I am sorry for having spread this addictive agent to you if you haven't been previously exposed.....
T.J. Schmitz - the man, the myth, the legend - o
Rather, it means that when /.'ers rule the earth, they are usually constructing a simulation.
3 74250
r s=12&minturns=200
To me at least the whole project reminds me of another, which has free software to construct even better simulations (multiple viruses at once) - and it allows you to rule the earth at the same time!
See
http://pubserver.freeciv.org/viewgame.phtml?game=
for an example, and
http://pubserver.freeciv.org/query.phtml?minplaye
for a couple more.
The real cause for concern is not Ann, the typical adult, but Bob, the traveling salesman. Bob comes into contact with hundreds of people spread across a wide area. Bob can give the infection to client sin remote sites and airline passengers. Worse, Bob will give the disease to hotel and airline workers (who spread it to other "Bob"s that travel).
The connectivity of people lies on a 2-D spectrum of distance and numerousity. Highly connected, highly-travelled people will play a much greater role in spreading the disease than typically-connected, less mobile people. Given the incubation delay and delays in reporting of an epidemic, the Bobs of the world will have done their damage long before the government realizes the danger and closes the airports.
Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do.
Wow. It reads like an article in Scientific American or something.
Oh wait. Nevermind.
Geez, seriously though, the people who write the articles seem to get off on making it as dry and long-winded as they can. TRANSIM this and TRANSIM that...blah blah blah. Do these people not read their own stuff?
Nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
Dude, what does mine say?
Sweet, what does mine say?
Dude! What does mine say?
Sweet!! What does mine say?
Dude!! What does mine say?
Sweet!!! What does mine say?
#hostfile 0.0.0.0 primidi.com 0.0.0.0 www.primidi.com 0.0.0.0 radio.weblogs.com
The current simulator has a model of Portland in it. A mod for San Francisco is an obvious next step.
It seems like simulations like these should parallelize nicely, and be ideal for a distributed computing project -- Epidemic@home, anyone? It'd be very interesting to watch running, and would help educate people about how diseases are spread. Of course, you'd probably also want to limit the amount of data conveyed to single users, to keep it from being too useful to "Bad People."
Just think of all the fab bubonic plaque carrier tattoos you can adorn your Sim with, while learning useful skills like Retch and Die and Group Infection Hug.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --