Slashdot Mirror
Bill Gates: Cellphone will Beat iPod
93,000 writes "CNN is running an article featuring Gates' prediction that the iPod is on the way out. From the article: 'As good as Apple may be, I don't believe the success of the iPod is sustainable in the long run.' His prediction for a successor? Mobile phones-- powered by none other than Windows Mobile 5.0, of course."
Well there already are phones that play MP3s, it's just that nobody wants one. I don't want to have to worry about missing a phone call because my cellphone ran out of batteries while I was listening to a Red Dwarf audio book. Until Microsoft starts making Tricorders count me out.
/sarcasm
But I'm sure Apple would be fools not to follow Gates' prediction, after all Microsoft is the leader in innovation.
That's a safe bet...if the IPod remains as it is. There's no chance that the IPod won't morph into something else in the future...
One man's Funny is another man's Offtopic.
I guess that would also include all other forms of portable devices. Cigarette lighters replaced by cell phones, ink pens replaced by cell phones, watches replace by cell phones, etc.
All powered by Microsoft Windows Mobile 5.0.
Has anyone ever done any reseach on how often Bill Gates has been right in his predictions?
"Rocky Rococo, at your cervix!"
What is it with you Bill Gates? Why do you always have to "beat" beat everybody? The history of Mr. Gates is filled with prognostications about how Microsoft with win this and win that and how competitors don't have any idea of what is happening. Rah, rah, rah! Certainly much of this is marketing, but I much prefer companies that just keep their heads down creating the next big thing and then announcing it to everyones surprise. Pre-announcing products by years only serves to generate expectations that more often than not are unmet. Longhorn is how far out of the initial expected delivery date?
Now, as far as his bets on the future of the iPod, like just about everything else Apple has created and Microsoft has copied, the iPod is not stagnant. It's development is ongoing and dynamic, so Microsoft is going to have not not only copy, but out innovate a moving target.
Visit Jonesblog and say hello.
Yea, and that cell phone will be made by Apple
... in a related move, Sony announced today its complete confidence in the Betamax format. Film at 11.
This is my post. There are many others like it. If you don't like what you read here, go try one of the others.
Yeah, it sounds a bit ridiculous, but think about it. People don't like carrying around multiple devices with them, and out of all the portable devices out there, the only one that has emerged as a necessity is the cellphone. These days, most cellphones you can buy have most of the features of the PDAs of yore. Listening to music is a fairly small feature to add to a device.
If you look at Nokia's cell phones, about half of them have cameras. A few years ago, a camera phone would've been pretty rare. I think that's where things are heading with hard drive cell phones, and once you have a hard drive, playing music off of it is pretty simple. Sure, the iPod is fairly entrenched as of right now, but when people's iPods break, they'll already have a device that can play music, making another iPod purchase much less lucrative. As more iPods break than get replaced, these Windows Mobile phones will be waiting to take the MP3 player market away.
I believe there is an excellent chance of the mp3 player and cell phone converging into a single device. There are about 1.7 billion cell phones in use today. That means all those people are already carrying around an electronic device. Give them somethign in the same form factor that also plays music and you've got a winner.
As for the part about them all running Windows, let's just say that remains to be seen.
"I'd rather be a lightning rod than a seismometer." -Ken Kesey
If my windows mobile phone didn't continually crash. Every couple of days the Windows Mobile OS crashes and it won't recognize any button presses. This is particularly annoying as it usually happens when answering calls, and requires pulling the battery out to hard resetting the phone. I originally got the phone because everybody in my office was getting them, and so I didn't have much of a choice. I was skeptical about running Microsoft anything, but I thought, "Hey: Different OS, Different Codebase, maybe it won't be filled with bugs!" Boy, was I wrong!
He does have a point, atleast as I see it. Portable devices seem to be moving in a direction of doing everything, rather than having one dedicated purpose (blackberry is an example of this IMHO) and unless apple starts to put out an appliance that appeals to a wider crowd, I can see them getting pushed out of the market but larger companies. I'm not saying that they'll be microsoft though(or microsoft powered even)
Person Y says technology by company X won't last.
Instead, person Y believes technology made by person Y's company will win long-term!
I'll bet in his next prediction, he'll say that the internet is just a fad..er...wait...
Ignore him...his predictions are merely him using corporate feelgoodspeak in order to try to convince MBAs to follow his product line.
Picture him in a wizards hat and cloak, making dire predictions, selling the cure-all for those ails in his cloak. Kinda suspicious...
Wonder why the iTunes phone isn't out yet?
No carrier wants to touch it. Let people sync their *own* files with their *own* phone?? Unheard of!
They want to charge $2 or more per song that you download to your phone. "Paying for convenience", as it were, or so they say...
I don't have much hope for Win CE 5.0 given problems with earlier versions. One big problem with Windows CE is that each hardware manufacturer customizes it for each device. Ever try getting upgrades to newer Windows CE from the hardware vendor? It doesn't happen unless you trash your existing hardware buy the latest device! Of course you can't just use a Windows CE upgrade for another device because each build is custom to a specific piece of hardware. And trust me you will want to upgrade because Windows CE has a lot of problems.
So much for software being easily updatable. You'd think we'd have progressed beyond having to rewire hardware to do a software update.
Summary: Windows CE = Shit
Too bad for billy boy that the biggest mobile phone manufacturer is pretty deeply attached to symbian..
They can see the end of Windows and Office steaming towards them from a mile off and they want to be able to step aside before it hits them hard.
Deleted
I won't be a fan of Ipods until the play my ogg files (until then, my Rio Karma will do just fine), but Bill Gate's is full of shit.
The Ipod interface is excellent, and with manufacturers producing quad-channel-GSM cell-phones-on-a-chip, Apple is going to have a much easier time adding cell-phone functionality to an Ipod than Microsoft is ever going to have adding an equivelently easy-to-use and satisfying interface to their so-called smart-phones.
I like my Motorola A700 PDA/Phone, but I don't use it to listen to music despite the fact that it is a capable MP3 player. The Ipod and Rio Karma are optimized for music playback--I've yet to see a cell phone that is so optimized without giving up PDA or cell-phone features to do it. I suspect Apple will be the first out with something that does just work, and it will probably be some variation of the Ipod.
The Future of Human Evolution: Autonomy
Remember that this is the same man who thought the Internet was a fad that would go nowhwere, and that MSN was Microsoft's online future.
Very few of his predictions have ever been accurate. I'm surprised that Apple's stock didn't go UP when this bit was published.
Microsoft has tried to do this already with the Smartphone. I have a C500 running Windows Mobile, with a 512MB Mini-SD card. I'm with him that soon we'll have mini hard disks in the phones.
What I don't buy is that people will use it as an iPod replacement. Why? Because it's designed by committee. The headphone jack is on the bottom of the phone. It's 2.5mm so you have to carry around a bulky adaptor.
The phone ships with Media Player 9 as default which sucks. You have to navigate to Media Player to change a song, and if someone rings you have to unplug the headphones. (I guess this wouldn't matter but they provide such shit ones with the one that you have to use your own.
PocketGamer.org - For the gamer on the go!
It's like "Rock Paper Scissors"
"Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival."
--Dr.W.Edwards Deming
Uh guys, he's right. Nokia is releasing their new phone in a few months: 4gb HD, phone, 2mp camera, and with decent battery life (as good as ipod!). Price ~$700. Now, imagine it in a few years. Why would anyone have 3 seperate gadgets, taking up 3 pockets (i only have 1 free pocket anyway), when you could get all 3 together in a tiny little phone for roughly the same price? ...
Pretty soon, your cell-phone, mp3 player, pda/blackberry, and camera will all be in one tiny box. All that'll be left is your desktop computer/server/entertainment system for home, and if you're lucky, your laptop.
Am I missing something?
Gates was saying everyone would switch to Tablet PCs a while ago. I think they had a thing called Passport that was supposed to be wildly successful as well. They're always pushing high powered high priced things in the portable/PDA universe. But sometimes something small and simple (and reliable) like an iPod mini is preferable. It does one thing and does it well.
Cellphones are becoming more and more like swiss army knifes, providing countless number of features - cameras, mp3 players, gaming, email, etc. If cellphones are going to end iPods and other MP3 Players then they should put an end to cameras too in the near future with increasingly efficient resolutions of phonecams.
But in reality that is unlikely. Cameras will have a place in the market, regardless of advances of phonecam technology, because there will always be people, a whole lot of them actually, who would prefer an exclusive camera that doesn't disturb with phone calls while taking a picture. Similarly there will be people who would prefer an MP3 player that doesn't disturb their listening pleasure.
Can we please stop having "a quack said this" on the front page? Bill Gates doesn't have a clue about the industry anymore. When a guy goes "IE is better then Firefox and just as secure if not MORE secure" you know he's an idiot.
It's getting boring to see the same group of people drone on how they will be the best/worst and so on and so forth.
I like muppets.
Actually, I was much more sure of this a few years ago than I am today. I say that because of 2 things.
... selling you expensive monthly service plans. The phones are just a means to an end for them, and you'll always see them crippling functionality if it allows them to charge extra for using a feature the way THEY want you to use it. Think "Jack of all trades, master of none." when you think "all in one cellphones". That's all you're gonna get.
1. Cellphone service still hasn't really come down much in price. Years ago, everyone seemed to think the emergence of more competing services would bring monthly charges way down, but it hasn't really worked out like that. Anyone can buy themselves a music player or even a PDA and get lots of use out of it, out of the box, without subscribing to anything. Cellphones, on the other hand, are useless paperweights as soon as you stop paying for monthly service. You can argue that cellphones are much more of a "necessity" - but that really depends on who YOU are. For quite a few people, they're just a convenience - as they could wait until they got home or to work to make/return their calls.
2. Cellphone makers have been horribly clueless in building a "convergence device" that really meets people's needs. Look at the latest "cream of the crop" PDA/camera/phones, for example. Take the Treo 650. Still so new, you can't even get on through many major carriers like Verizon, but if you do - you find out it's very fragile/breakable, not to mention still almost too large to carry around comfortably. Battery life could be better too, and as a portable music player, it doesn't hold a candle to something like even a first generation iPod. Meanwhile, like most all other camera phones, it takes lousy low-resolution photos. Where's the desirability in that??
I think the truth is, cellphone makers are really only interested in one thing
but "always" is not a very long time. Frankly, the Micro$oft Monopoly has only really existed for a little over a decade, and for that decade, they have had virtually no competition, thus explaining why none of their software has really made any significant improvements in that decade. Now here we are with Tiger out the door and Longhorn a year and a half away. Apple has GAINED 1% market share in the last quarter, and Morgan Stanley forecasts them having 6% by year's end. Granted, these are still pretty insignificant gains until you consider that Apple hasn't gained market share for over twenty years... Eventually, Microsoft is going to have to innovate to stay in.
And let's not forget about missing important calls or dropping calls because a) the phone crashed, b) the phone is too busy playing spyware ads, c) you can't dial because of all the pop-ups, or d) microsoft suddenly thinks you're pirating the windows mobile OS in rom and has disabled your phone until you call the reactivation number.
It must be Windows. It needs half a gig of RAM and a hardware-accelerated graphics card just to run Solitaire.
Talk to any rabid Star Trek fan, and they'll probably start yapping about how the cellphone will eventually morph into the infamous tricorder ,... Then again, even in the Star Trek universe, the equivalent of the modern day cellphone, the Star Trek Communicator , is a separate device worn on the uniform and not in the tricorder.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Amusingly enough, MSN could have been Microsoft's online future. Look at Google, think about Google, wonder whether Microsoft wouldn't like to have that growing chunk of the computer industry for themselves.
Were the GOOG guys to have put more of their stock on the market, or just look to get acquired, do you think they would have been able to find someone to buy them?
And as counterpoint, if Microsoft didn't have such a tough and well-rooted competitor in Linux which gave so much reliable functionality, do you think they would have been able to keep their community happy enough to make MSN effective at choking out their competition before it got as big as GOOG?
Gates' prediction that the Internet would be huge business was not wrong at all. What he was wrong about was Microsoft being able to dominate it as easily as they did the OS market earlier in his career.
My little site.
As to Ipods, whatever Apple's flaws, the marketing of the IPod has been a marvel to see. Apple has managed to brand themselves, and I don't think MS is going to be bashing into that market as easily as they think.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
That's exactly why I think Apple won't be losing ground here anytime soon. Apple excels at design. The Ipod is as popular as it is because it was the first really well designed MP3 player on the market. Even today I'm hard pressed to think of a music player that's on par with the Ipod in size, features, and quality of design.
So imagine doing the convergence that gates is talking about but with Apple's design people running the show. Imagine a device slightly smaller than comparable products with elegant apple design, and an intuitive interface. Dock your phone with your computer and not only does it sync your music but it also syncs your e-mail and address book now. Plust what about using MMS to do limited sharing of music files with your friends?
Computers are mostly functional devices. Style is a minimal concern. With phones though, style is as much a part of it as the function. As long as the phone can answer calls, view e-mail, and have an address book, the rest is just fluff. So I think Microsoft will have quite a fight on their hands.
This sig has been temporarily disconnected or is no longer in service
Hear, hear.
Maybe five years ago, when cell phone popularity was just building up, a woman came up to me on the street and asked me if I wanted a free phone. I told her that I wasn't interested. When she stopped looking at me as if I was mentally deficient, she asked me why.
I replied, "I just don't want to be that accessible. I don't even like to answer the phone when I'm home half the time."
She proceeded, for several seconds, to glare at me as if she had just met the most incomprehensibly retarded person that she had had the pleasure of encountering in her entire life.
She then gave me the spiel about how useful a cell phone would be if I was ever to find myself stranded on the side of the road, my car refusing to start, in the cold Canadian winter.
My response? "In the 22 years I've been alive, I've never found myself in that situation. Paying $20 or more a month to address the unlikelihood of it ever happening seems a little excessive."
She then got a cell phone call and ended the conversation.
Apple and Motorola are working on a cell phone/iPod hybrid. However they're having a hard time getting carriers to sign on. Read about it here.
This is my opinion. To make sure you don't steal it, it's covered by the DMCA.
Hold off until he tries to demo his Magick Alternative and it bursts into flame.
Faith: n. -- That human impulse that drives them to steal appliances when the power goes out
People love the ipod not just of it looks, but also because of its userinterface. A mobile phone is already more complex, and I see people with blackberrys and stuff like that switch back to normal phones just because it is easier to use, and has less bloat. Devices like ipod will stay, just like that people like to buy appliances. Windows will go way out because of its everyway possible use, to big interfaces and tough to find programs.
Disclaimer:
Yes, I use an ipod, the interface could even be easier.
Yes, I use windows, linux (kde) and OS X: They are all bloated. OS X certainly is not the easiest of the three when you want to find a program.
My wife's sketchblog Blob[p]: Gastrono-me
They are morphing into invisibility.
Where can you go from there? Anywhere you want to. You are invisible.
I wouldn't worry about product 'stagnation'.
When the iMac first came out, in 'bondi blue', it didn't look like a box.
The other PC makers couldn't match it. They were stuck with their beige boxes. Then they tried putting colored plastic panels around the same chassis that used to be in those beige boxes.
We have seem the iMac morph twice, the 'football' and the half ball with a scren slung in front of it, and now its just a flat panel on a pedestal. It was obvious what was happening but the PC makers are still selling their boxes.
I'm thinking that the MacMini and the tablet that Apple just patented, using a wireless network to hook up the devices are the future of home computing.
PCs are still stuck in their old chassis, requiring a desk and a chair in a 'work station' and instead Apple is offering invisibility.
If you had to change a house around, which would you rather have, a monolith with a big footprint or something you can't see except for a portable tablet?
I'm not ever going to touch the iPod, iPod Mini and iPod Shuffle. And neither can the PC manufacturers.
Apple 'gets it'.
MSBPodcast.com The opinions expressed here are my own. If you don't like 'em... Think up your own stuff.
So who *is* actually building Windows phones in quantity? Well HP is.. a little tiny bit, but most of the world's Windows phones are manufacturerd by HTC of Taiwan and then just rebadged. Sure.. HTC is doing well, and the HTC Universal certainly rocks.. when it eventually comes out. But for all the squillions that Microsoft has put into this project, they haven't seen an awful lot come out.
Oh yes.. the iPod. Well, on one part we have these "jack of all trades" devices that have a so-so camera, music player, phone and PDA built into one. There's a market for "unified devices". There's also a market for focussed devices that are of a better quality. There's a market for both. Don't forget that Microsoft has been failing to kill off Apple for over twenty years too..
Never email donotemail@WeAreSpammers.com
While I agree that cellphones are sort of the logical target for convergence there are some huge obstacles to overcome. I agree that the iPod's days are numbered in its current form. I think many people would be very happy to just carry one device and a smartphone of some sort seems the ideal candidate. (Personally I prefer best of breed devices linked by Bluetooth but I think I'm in the minority there.) It's already an audio focused device and there are sufficient storage solutions. The main technical obstacles are battery life and a good user interface but those will be overcome in time I think. Of course the iPod is unlikely to remain in its current form unless Steve Jobs & Co have a collective stroke. But the real obstacles are not technical ones but market ones.
Cell phones are not yet a commodity product the same way PCs are. There are at least 3-4 major operating systems, there is no dominant hardware platform, incompatible radio technologies, and the main buyers of cell phones (cellular providers) are far less fragmented and more powerful than any buyer of PCs. It's a very different market. The only way I can see a iPod-replacement-phone taking off is if it if the developer (Palm, MS, Motorola, Nokia, etc) can somehow get the carriers to fight each other for it.
A huge problem with cell phones replacing the iPod is that there is almost zero financial incentive for the cellular providers (Cingular, Verizon, etc) to offer iPod/iTunes functionality on their networks unless they can make money off it. I don't see them being flexible enough to make that happen. They'll want a business like the ringtone business and they'll want it captive so you have to buy it from them. Witness Verizon with their disabled bluetooth functionality on one of their phones. They have no interest in services they can't charge for and are afraid of subsidizing development on a service one of their competitors will benefit from. One of the main reason's the iPod is successful is that you don't have to rely on any third party to use it. You can *choose* to use iTunes, etc but you aren't forced to. This is the exact opposite of how the carriers think.
Another factor is that most phones are subsidized by the providers. Now it's possible someone might produce a device people are willing to buy without subsidizing but I think they can't charge much more than an iPod or Treo. People are obviously willing to carry devices that cost as much as $400-$500US (Treo, some iPods) but if the cost is more than that, I think you are getting outside the sweet spot and most want devices that are much cheaper. It's possible it could happen, I'm just dubious it will happen if the cellular providers have much say in the matter.
Not surprised nothing's happened to you! And get off my damned lawn!!!!
They whose government reduces their essential liberties for temporary security, receive neither liberty nor security.
I think the general consensus amoung you slashdotters here mainly stem from the fact that you're a little behind in cell-phone technology. Over here, cell phones are already starting to eat away at the portable music-player market (this is going strictly from what I see with my friends though, I doubt it'll turn up at market-analysises this soon).
Good music playing phones already exist, and why shouldn't they? Playing music is simple, calling is simple, using sms is simple. There is no general purpose interface, and none of the generalization problems PDA's end up with.
"" How about taking the safety labels off everything, and let the stupidity-problem solve itself? """
At some point in time, the iPod will fade into obscurity but I doubt it will be caused by anything Microsoft makes. They've got one point of domination--Windows and they have severe quality issues.
Any emerging technologies out there for cell phones are going to have to consider several factors if they want to compete and beat the iPod as a music player (or if Apple wants to morph the iPod into a cell-phone):
1) Battery life. With all the stuff these uberwidgets are doing, they are going to have to find a good, stable, non-explosive power source. The iPod or other music players have a dedicated purpose--if you multiply the purposes, multiply the power consumption (probably by an exponent). I'd rather have a separate music player than to chance losing all my juice in my phone.
2) Portability--by that, I mean music can be moved from/to an iPod or computer to/from my new music phone easily. The interface has to be easy to use and it will have to be compatible the dominant music sources. Otherwise it's going to have hell catching up because re-inventing that wheel has not proven to be a match for iTMS. People won't switch products if it's not easy or they feel to heavily invested in or loyal to another product/service.
3) Availability & Pricing. If you can't get one from or working with your provider, it doesn't matter how good the product works or doesn't. [Look how long it took the Treo to get ubiquitous support]. The price dictates availability, too. The market demographic for people who want music and cell phones may not have the disposable income to afford it if it's not priced right. (i.e., cheaper than a nice cell phone + an iPod).
4) Fashion. MS's devices aren't ever as slick looking as Apple's--that will definitely be a factor in its appeal to both vendors and consumers. The "cool" factor enjoyed by the iPod is something Microsoft's money just can't buy. They'll have to compete in quality and design--two areas they don't do well in.
I might know what I'm talkin' about, but then again, this is Slashdot...
The trouble is, all of these features saddle the poor little device with a complexity that will boggle even the veteran cell fan. You have to wade your way through a staggering 583 menu commands, along with far too many pointless "Are you sure?" confirmations, to find them all. Just looking up your own phone number requires eight button presses, for goodness' sake.
No electrons were harmed creating this post, though some may have been subjected to electrical and/or magnetic fields.
From what I understand, we would have many MP3/Phone combinations now if it weren't for the Cell companies like Verizon, and the rest dragging there feet. The phone companies want a share of the $0.99 per song. So, they won't sell phones that have MP3 capabilities without crippling them so you can only put songs on them by transfering them over their network (and charging you for the "feature"). I was looking at a cameraphone sold by verizon. It had a flash card in it. But you couldn't images couldn't be transfered through the flash card to your computer. You had to pay a $3.00/per month fee to transfer the photos via their network to your email address. The salesman said it was because transfering pictures from via the flash card was a security problem, and would make it possible to get viruses on your phone. Yeah right. They want cell phones to work just like the POTS phones, where they charge for every little thing. Honestly, I'm surprised that Verizon doesn't charge for "backlight minutes".
Anyhow, If this way of doing business continues with the phone companies, who in the world would ever use a phone as an MP3 player if you had to pay a monthly fee to use your MP3 player as apposed to freely transfering songs back and forth. I would just carry a second device.
There were rumors that Apple and Motorola had some sort of combo device coming, but the cell companies wouldn't sell it for their network because they didn't get a cut of the song profits.
So really, what Bill says really carries no weight, it is all about the pricing models the telecoms choose to use. Maybe Microsoft will subsudize the windows phone, but but I would still avoid it, just for the sake of keeping my gear free of viruses and BSODs.
Make a cell phone that's as cool and easy to use as the ipod.
..and has tried to release a phone with MP3/AAC/ITunes support in partnership with Nokia.
The major wireless providers have basically shut the phone out of the market by opting not to subsidize them because they want music downloads through their networks as a revenue stream.
It's not as if anyone is caught flat footed by convergence devices. The question is not if they will come about, but how long it takes a good one to make it past all the market barriers.
Eeyore
Using 'PTunes' on my treo 600, I already bring 12 albums of music around and play them using an SD card... And I can play them on my desktop also if I want. As SD and other media get cheaper, this will get easier and easier. I also can listen to shoutcast streams. All that on a tiny little OS like Palm. Why should I worry about Windows on my handheld device when Palm works and will boot up in seconds.
The second thing I noticed in the article was this quote:
"The BlackBerry is great but we're bringing a new approach," he said. "With BlackBerry you need to link to a separate server, and that costs extra. With us, the e-mail function will already be part of the server software."
With Chatter, I get IMAP email pushed in real time to my treo.No extra server needed here either, just a _standard_ IMAP server which supports IDLE, and my treo can get email pushed to it in the background.
> Gates' prediction that the Internet would be huge business was not wrong at all.
Um, no. Gates thought that the internet was a joke, not for the business user. M$ was very late coming out with a browser, because they had no interest until it was almost too late. They scrambled like mad to warp and mutate Mosaic into the non-standards complient bastard IE when it was obvious that the internet was not going away.
jfs
The only thing worse than a Democrat is a Republican.
And he's right that Apple is not positioned for the long haul (ooooh, here come the Apple fanboys). Steve Jobs will be off to make some other neat, shiny thing.
Advice: on VPS providers
I would think that once their competitors are aware of this strategy, they would counteract it simply by not resting in their laurels but instead developing cool new features for their devices so that Microsoft can never catch up to the point where their crappy device is good enough to compete. The biggest danger when competing with Microsoft is that you'll be lulled into a false sense of security by how shitty their revision 1 products inevitably are.
Apple's already experienced this once at the hands of Microsoft -- Windows prior to 3.0 was a joke, 3.0 was just good enough to put a hurtin' on Apple and once Apple got smacked down Windows didn't change appreciably for well over a decade. Oh I know they had NT, but it's not like THAT was ever marketted at the home user.
I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?
Apple, Cray, SGI, Sun, and IBM have joined forces to create the ultimate computing machine. It has a variable dpi LCD monitor with resolutions up to 3840x2160, flawless voice and handwriting recognition. It can replace entire datacenters; play full screen movies and 3D video games at 80fps; playback and record 96 simultaneous tracks of 192kHz, 64-bit audio, including DSP plugins; and hold up to a terabyte of RAM and 30 terabytes of disk. It can fit in your pocket, and it runs quiet and cool.
What's the first question asked at the introductory press release?
"Can it run Windows programs?"
-mkb
Mobile phones-- powered by none other than Windows Mobile 5.0, of course.
Not on my side...
I flat out refuse to use ANY M$ based product.
Besides, I don't want all that crap. When I'm not at my desk, I'm doing something, driving, working, etc. I don't have time to screw around with a stupid device like this. Besides, I'm old and I can't deal with the "Nintendo thumbs" syndrome. I watched my kids operate those tiny little controllers and I hated the damn things. And doing that on a cell phone while I am trying to drive, that phone is going to get zinged out the window!
I want a phone that I can call people on, has a totally dependable battery, has a large send and hang up button, that I F--king can SEE in daylight (I hate my V120T) and get's a good signal everywhere. Screw games, music and text messages, screw notes and all the other nerd-bling.
I just want a phone that I can depend on when I need it and that everyone doesn't want to steal from me.
It's not about Apple or Microsoft or Samsung or Sony or anything to do with design or branding.
The one thing that will set a huge fire on wireless devices will be fast and very cheap networking. Hopefully WiFly will do it. But if not there's other possibilities. It's just a matter of time.
When it does arrive, say like 1Meg bidirectional for twenty bucks a month, everybody will have one and they'll just stream all of their media from their home PC.
But at that point the margins will be too low for either Apple or Microsoft. Instead, the handsets will probably have your telco's logo and be made by the zillion by Golden Gragon Ltd contract mega manufacturers, Shen Zhen China. They won't need more than a tiny bit of local storage since you'll keep everything at home. The rest of it wil just be a few chips and an antennae in a piece of plastic.
The best part is that they'll be all over India and Brazil and the Ukraine just as fast as they hit the US. Globalization isn't all bad.
The trouble is that Gates assumes that everyone else is dumb and he's smart, so no matter what someone else has done, he can start with their ideas and improve upon it. He doesn't take into account that others are doing the same thing, and that by the time the MS version gets out the door the innovator has moved on.
Witness:
At least some journalists are taking notice:
Kevin Fox
I won't be a fan of Ipods until the play my ogg files
http://www.ipodlinux.org/Main_Page
Check back on the iPodlinux project every few weeks, they are working on ogg playback. Once the 4th gen version is out of alpha, ogg can be implemented more easily, due to the more powerful processor.
Why does my post history abruptly stop? I want to laugh at the stupid things I posted as a kid.
Can we please STFU about the 640K thing already, he didn't fucking say it. (see below)
QUESTION: I read in a newspaper that in 1981 you said, ``640K of memory should be enough for anybody.'' What did you mean when you said this? ANSWER: I've said some stupid things and some wrong things, but not that. No one involved in computers would ever say that a certain amount of memory is enough for all time. The need for memory increases as computers get more potent and software gets more powerful. In fact, every couple of years the amount of memory address space needed to run whatever software is mainstream at the time just about doubles. This is well-known. When IBM introduced its PC in 1981, many people attacked Microsoft for its role. These critics said that 8-bit computers, which had 64K of address space, would last forever. They said we were wastefully throwing out great 8-bit programming by moving the world toward 16-bit computers. We at Microsoft disagreed. We knew that even 16-bit computers, which had 640K of available address space, would be adequate for only four or five years. (The IBM PC had 1 megabyte of logical address space. But 384K of this was assigned to special purposes, leaving 640K of memory available. That's where the now-infamous ``640K barrier'' came from.) A few years later, Microsoft was a big fan of Intel's 386 microprocessor chip, which gave computers a 32-bit address space. Modern operating systems can now take advantage of that seemingly vast potential memory. But even 32 bits of address space won't prove adequate as time goes on. Meanwhile, I keep bumping into that silly quotation attributed to me that says 640K of memory is enough. There's never a citation; the quotation just floats like a rumor, repeated again and again.
Top 10 Reasons To Procrastinate
10.
However, the real problem with not having a cell phone is that (in the US, anyway) everyone assumes you have a cell phone, and so fewer and fewer pay phones are available anymore. Your six odd years sans-breakdown aside (don't know the driving age in Canada), there *will* be times when you need to get in touch with someone.
For example, what if you find yourself trapped upside down in your car?
People can't call you on your iPOD.Granted, I'm in the minority, but for me, the cell phone is a neccessary evil, not something I really want. By contrast, portable Music is desirable. In addition, cell phones tend to make really lousy music players. Heck, for the most part, they aren't even very good telephones. When it is on, my Motorola V220 (or whatever) cell phone will transmit nasty buzzing sounds to any speaker within a meter or so. Maybe I'm overly sensitive, but that isn't a feature I'm looking for in a music player. Of course, this seems to be unique to the Motorola. My old Ericson T28 didn't do this.
Today, you can buy a PDA / Cell Phone / Camera. Now I want to buy a PDA / Cell Phone / Camera / MP3 player. In 6 months, I will want a PDA / Cell Phone / Camera / MP3 player / Video game system. Then it will be a PDA / Cell Phone / Camera / MP3 player / Video game / Toaster.
This isn't progress. PCs and TVs are popular partially because you can add new things on to them. But today, to add something to a cell phone requires buying a new cell phone. That aint cheap. Soon, we will need a standardized expandable cell phone so that we can add the drink mixer attachment easily without replacing the whole device.
Until then, I won't waste $1000 to buy the ultimate integrated device, knowing I will need to throw it out very soon.
I agree that everyone assumes you have a cell phone. People always seem quite surprised when I tell them that I don't, especially since I'm a software developer and as such, there's an assumption that I'm up on all the latest technological fads (hey, I run Linux, Mac OS X, and I have an iPod... that's all I can handle for now :D).
Just FYI, driving up here is like the states and decided provincially instead of federally, but typically the age is 16. Regardless, as I have been riding in cars my whole life and have never had one break down in the middle of nowhere before, I think it's safe to conclude that (now, five years after this conversation) 27 years of my life have elapsed without this being a significant event.
And while I recognize that cell phones *can* save lives, I think that the probability that they will save me during my lifetime is low enough that it doesn't offset the cost of the phone and service plan, and the irritation of carrying the thing around and charging the batteries.
I write "CNN is running an article featuring Jobs' prediction that the cell phone is on the way out. From the article: 'As good as mp3 cell phones may be, I don't believe their success is sustainable in the long run.' His prediction for a successor? iPod phones-- powered by none other than embeded Darwin, of course."
If you think of it as "just a phone" then, yes, of course it's going to compare badly size-wise when compared to dedicated phones.
But if you think of it as a PDA with a built-in phone, which is how you should be looking at it, then there's nothing at all wrong with its size at all.
Look at it this way, if it were any smaller then it would be useless as a PDA, right? So what good is making it smaller?
Seriously, I don't have huge hands (I'd describe mine as being of average size) and I find myself looking at most phones, PDAs, etc (not just the Treo range) and wishing the buttons were a little bit bigger: I'd hate to think how unusable these devices would be to a lot of people if they became any smaller and the buttons were to either become smaller still or be less well-spaced out.
Too big and bulky? You're kidding, right?
"Accept that some days you are the pigeon, and some days you are the statue." - David Brent, Wernham Hogg
What people seem to be forgetting is that service providers only want a phone with a music player if they can provide the music.
... Not that there is anything wrong with this, but he is not in it for the music.
Apple and Motorola have already had trouble finding takers for their iTunes capable phones because service providers want to sell music to the customer, rather than have them load it off of their computer. It doesn't gain them a whole lot if you can upload your own music.
Plus they are selling crappy ringtones for $3 or more, so can you imagine what would happen if they sold whole songs? They would have to lower their profitable ringtone price point, or sell songs for an outrageous amount, and I'm guessing on the latter assuming they only let you buy music from them. (And probably charge you for the internet access that you will have to use to browse for songs)
Service providers don't want you to have your own music. You hear people whine about iTunes music store, this would be Cingular Music store. $5 single songs at 64k that are DRM's to only your phone.
And as for Bill Gates, he doesn't care about the music player. He wants you to get the phone for the music player and then be tied to microsoft products to sync it. And since you'll also have Word on your phone, you'll need it on your computer... Excel, Outlook,
Like puzzle games? Warehouse51 for iOS
maybe eventually, but its likely Apple will be the one who developes it. Hell as it is RIGHT NOW Apples cellphone with Motorola is on hold cause they cant do that well.... Gates really does love to hit that pipe still huh?
"Slashdot, where telling the truth is overrated but lying is insightful."
Philips has signed an agreement with Microsoft to integrate Windows Media into its chip designs for set-top boxes, PVRs, HDTV, portable media players, cell phones, the works:
Philips, Microsoft Seal Software Deal
i do believe that mobile phones will merge with all sorts of technologies in the future, may it be mp3s, divx, and what not when minihardrives are added and battery life issues are "solved"..but why would someone specifically buy an all in one super device when there will always be a company that will be better in one or the other technonolgy because they are specialist in only that field (or at least the product they offer)
Why did Apple succeed with the ipod?, i believe because they concentrated on the music lover they segmented their market, created the perfect tool for that segment, keeping this in mind the whole design, technology, etc is based on the profile of the music lover..does a phone maker like nokia have music lovers in mind when they create a communicator? sure they add mp3 support since its a minor addition..but these are two different things and the communicator is aimed at business people so its best for them.
Given the point that apple now rules the portable music market, they didnt start with a million ipods sold, the success came gradually over a period of time where all the marketing and technological efforts of s. jobs settled in, due to the fact that the device had a clear target market. a "all in one device" cant win since nowone can satisfy everyone at once, its not possible...stick with what you know best and go ahead and create synergies but dont try to rule the world, it never works, history has shown that
Sure you aren't thinking of the treo 300? The 600 is actually smaller than the iPod. Got them both sitting next to me; I actually checked.
The 300 was pretty big, though.
Not to mention that in many cases where you'd want to make that emergency call ... you can't get reception! Doh!
Nokia's highend handsets are running SymbianOS 7.0 and mostly their own Series 60 platform. It is not particularly stable and there are odd disparities between particular Nokia models that are supposed to run the same OS. If the OS could be updated OTA (Over-The-Air) it'd sure be neat but this won't be possible for a year or two yet. You have to go to a Nokia service center... My experience with Windows Mobile OS is that it offers pretty much the same stability. I haven't used too many applications created for Windows based handsets, but on Series 60 they are extremely unstable. Also the phones tend to leak a lot of memory and you shouldn't be surprised if you have to restart your brand new Nokia every few days. Sound familiar? Yep, but you cope with it, in the same way that you shrug when Windows decides that blue is the colour of the day. For some reason the "Out of memory. Close some applications and try again." tends to happen when you have the camera trained on some pretty girl :-(
The handset will become the computer and integrate
everything in itself. This I do not doubt and the
industry is preparing for it already.
As far as I could see the PDA has disappeared in Japan. I saw two or three people using them on the subway and that was it. I couldn't find any Palms or PocketPCs on sale, even in Akibahara. I did find a few 4Gb Sharp Zauruses and lots of ebook/edictionary things. But otherwise no PDAs.
Phone use in Japan is unbelievable. Walking down the street you are faced with hordes of people all texting as they walk. Cellphones in use everywhere. Old people, young people, anyone. I have no idea what some of these people were doing. I assume they were all texting but when I looked over people's shoulders I often saw funky looking animations. It's clear that the convergence with the cellphone has already happened, at least in Japan.
Doesn't it make you feel good to know that our freedoms are protected by politicans, lawyers and journalists.
five years ago [...] a woman came up to me
And you still haven't quite gotten over it, have you?
People have been saying that Bill Gates' predictions are often way off. That is not so - you just have to interpret them in the right way.
BillG does not make predictions in order to predict the future - he makes predictions to advance the fortunes of his company.
If you look at his predictions from the point of view "What is the best thing i can say to advance Microsofts fortunes" you will see that he is 100% spot on there every time. His publicity helps Microsoft, which, in turn, bolsters his very own bank account.
MSFT is up by 0.36% today, whereas AAPL is down over 4%. Go figure.