Slashdot Mirror
The 13 Steps to Sony's Demise
An anonymous reader writes "There's an article up over at About.com called, "Nintendo's Role in Sony's Fall." The article discusses a detailed sequence of events, a time-line, that might play out over the next year or two as Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo battle it out. It references the launch of the Xbox 360, Halo 3, the PS3, and the Revolution strategy, as well as Sony's troubles with employee layoffs in 2008 and the PSP. Right or wrong? Who knows, but it's well informed and after 13 steps, the game plays out like this: Microsoft punches, Nintendo dodges, and Sony ends up with a bloody nose."
when it was posted here two weeks ago: http://games.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=05/11/14/ 211252&tid=233&tid=10
I can't see Bill Gates giving anyone a bloody nose. Maybe if Balmer threw a chair at sony....
These pages are so small, the sidebar (the one with the page index) is longer! Shit, you can really overdo it.
Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
The article is more analysis of what's happened in the last year than prediction forward. However, the projections made aren't over the top. I was skeptical when I first started reading (because it seems that everyone wants to jump on the Nintendo trumps Sony bandwagon nowadays) but I think the author did a good job of taking the current state of console gaming and projecting into the future. While I'm sure he's going to be correct when he says that the Revolution will make a good compliment to a 360 or PS3, I don't know what percentage of people actually buy more than one system. I never played enough console games for it to make sense. I'm also a bit skeptical about the 360 price drop / Halo 3 launch. Halo 2 met with lukewarm reception IMO. I haven't even finished the game myself. My cousin (who's 10) told me he doesn't want an Xbox 360 because it's too expensive and isn't worth it for one game. Right. While he might not be telling the truth, I've talked to a lot of people who are going to sit back and wait to see what the PS3 is going to give out versus the Xbox 360. I can tell you that after Halo 2, I'm definitely not looking forward to more in Halo 3. At the same time, I haven't even touched GTA:SA yet either. At a $400 price point, I'm going to have to be mighty impressed before I buy any next-generation console.
Yet more speculative wish-listing from beligerent Nintendo fans. Funny how slashdot always seems to find so much space for the "omg Sony is doomed Nintendo roxor" school of thought.
Sony are in a bad place at this very moment. This is undeniable. Furthermore, this is mainly due to an act of utterly reprehensible greed and stupidity on their part. However, this *will* blow over. A year from now, the public will have completely forgotten that the current DRM issue ever existed.
What people tend to forget when discussing the next generation isn't what's going to change - it's what's going to stay the same. Ultimately, Sony are going into the next round of the console wars with the exact same strengths that gave them such an overwhelming victory during the PS2 era. These include:
- Vast array of third party titles, covering every genre and aimed at every demographic.
- Huge brand recognition with people who don't consider themselves to be gamers, but still like to keep a console around.
- Exclusivity, or early-release deals for the most significant franchises in gaming, including (but not limited to) Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Metal Gear Solid, Grand Theft Auto.
At the same time, Nintendo have not demonstrated that they're prepared to address any of the issues that have rendered the Gamecube so irrelevant over the second half of the current cycle. These include:
- Inability to deliver the quantity of first and second party titles they need to keep gamers interested.
- A dictatorial attitude towards third party developers that serves to keep some of the most important away from the system.
- Very few games which appeal outside of the pre-teen or retro-gamer demographics.
- Serious under-representation in many genres, particularly driving games and RPGs.
All the fancy new controllers in the world aren't going to make the slightest bit of difference to the sales figures until Sony throw away their advantages or Nintendo overcome their disadvantages.
My own predictions as to what will happen? The 360 will make a relatively strong performance, especially with having a Christmas to itself. It won't beat the PS3. It won't even come particularly close. But I think that having a Christmas all to itself and (hopefully) a better RPG presence than the original X-Box will work in its favour. I can see it eventually selling, say, 75 units for every 100 PS3s sold, which would be better for MS than the picture at the end of this round, even if they did manage to take 2nd place in the final straight. The Revolution's only going to continue the slow downward trend out of the mainstream and into niche obscurity that Nintendo have been on for a decade now.
Halo3, along with a 360 price cut, will be too much to overcome in households that can afford only the 360 or the PS3.
One thing that struck me was the end of this ArsTechnica article comparing the next-gen consoles. Ars hammers home the point that Sony, being a content-creator, and Microsoft being only a device-maker, means that Sony will always tend to have more DRM on their system than the XBox does. Now, granted, consoles may not necessarily become the final media player in your living room, but if they're the ones that make it, quixotically, it seems like XBox is the most open way towards that for now.
Sony can not afford to lose this console generation. It would more than likely sink the company firmly into the red. Add into this that you'd have to be a fool to buy the PS3 at launch, and things don't look so rosy for our favorite shitty hardware outsourcing to china at war-with-itself corporation.
Or maybe I'm just bitter that I blew threw 3 PS2s in 3 years.
The key to the enjoyment of pop music is to replace any instance of "love" with "C.H.U.D."
"The system is well designed and performs well, launching the next-generation of gaming consoles."
I don't know about you, but to me, having even 1% of the sold consoles experiencing problem as trivial as PSU overheating, makes the console not well designed and performing well. When you design a piece of hardware, you don't check only if the processors can compute 1+1=2, but also if, you know, you can power on the damn thing.
"Sony, who currently relies on its gaming division to prop up its electronics division, continues to develop the PS3 with more limited resources."
I don't know if the author realizes that Sony also has huge revenues from movies (via Sony Pictures) and music (via "a href="http://www.sonybmg.com/">Sony BMG).
"With a 6-month head start, the Xbox 360 claims the dominant location in households who are unable to afford owning both the PS3 and the Xbox 360."
That's my own interpretation here, but Microsoft might not dominate the market as stated in the article. Microsoft suffers from bad reputation. Even the lamest user know that Windows crashes a lot ("duh! My computer is bugging!"), gamers know that the original Xbox had severe issues (early units couldn't read later games because of a crappy DVD player that could read multi-layer discs), not to mention the above-mentionned defective PSU for the X360.
As far as I know (and I may be wrong), PS2 never suffered any thing of that kind, and Sony has overall a good reputation (since people think they do great electronic device, which is kind of true unless you can afford to spend a few more bucks for higher quality equipment). And no, I'm not an anti-Microsoft. I run Windows XP and I bought a Xbox, kthx.
Yet another Xbox vs Nintendo vs Sony bashfest disguised as news.
How many times must we go through this? Atari vs Intellivision vs Coleco. Atari vs Commodore vs Apple. Apple vs Windows. NES vs Sega. Dreamcast vs PS vs N64. PS2 vs Xbox vs GC.
I'm waiting for the "PS3 controllers cause carpal-tunnel, Revolution causes tennis elbow, Xbox controller is the cure" article. Or "Cold winter nights cured by miraculous Xbox 360 Space Heater."
Bah!
- - - - -
http://www.marachan.com/
This analysis isn't that deep, not even much of a projection. I think that Nintendo may have found the key to competing with less money: innovation. The DS and now the Revolution prove that. Unfortunately, it will be relatively easy for MS/Sony to match the revolution's features by releasing a motion-sensitive controller, and Sony has already offered something amazingly forward thinking with the Eyetoy.
But the PSP and Sony's resources are clearly the problems. Japan's gaming market is cooling off. Square Enix is in a slump. The biggest advancement in this gen of consoles, online games, are better served by the 360. Imagine this: Sony's Everquest works better on Microsoft's "Other Console", the PC, than it does on the PS2. Amazing.
But the most important bit is the PSP. A new hardware launch always kills profit for a while. If Sony doesn't get over the hump and start taking market share from Nintendo in handhelds, the loss in profits and projected revenues will hurt a lot.
Here's what was lacking in the article: the PSP's actual problems.
1. It doesn't come close to competing with the Ipod, which Sony seemed to believe it would.
2. One analog 'stick' in an age of FPS on consoles? This thing can't compete in the U.S.
3. No Square RPGs? No turn-based strategy games? No pet simulator? This thing can't compete in Japan.
4. Portable systems are still children's toys in the U.S. It's too expensive to be a toy, and lacks children's games.
5. With the 360 and PS3 guaranteed to drive spending in home theater setups, this thing has bad timing.
6. Customers can't see it. Everywhere I shop, there is no PSP display. It's hard to be impressed by the screen and games if you can't sample them in person. $250 is too much to spend on faith (for some of us).
Here's what works with the PSP:
1. The movies are actually selling. UMD is the most successfuly media format in terms of speed of adoption: a good sign for the Blu-ray discs Sony wants to push with the PS3.
2. Big Screen.
3. EA's support.
4. Memory prices will continue to fall over time, so eventually this WILL work as a downloadable music player.
5. The "children's toy" label has a chance to change if Sony sticks with this thing long enough.
6. Built-in wifi support means that the zillions of us who have broadband and wireless routers could eventually use this for surfing the web or watching TV/Streaming music, if Sony gets the application right.
Right now, the PSP is 90% potential, 10% reality, 0$ profit. Not the best distraction during a major console upgrade cycle.
A further scenario that isn't mentioned is the relative health of MS. The article mentions that Sony may have problems resulting from its diversification, in that other divisions are currently (and may in the future) draining from Sony's overall financial health. It does not mention, but it should be said, that the same is true of MS. For the most part, MS makes money from Windows and Office, and runs pretty significant losses in other areas. MS has shareholders who may not support continued revenue loss, and despite popular opinion, MS has backed away from certain markets in the past (television being one example).
Also, MS is fighting battles on many fronts, and so it may be vulnerable to the kind of problems that the diverse Sony has as well. The popular mythos is that MS simply outlasts competitors in all areas by relying on its war chest, but if it is stretched too thin in other areas, the 360 may suffer. Think, for example, of the challenge Google and Linux represent to MS as a company. It would seem that MS's first priorities would be to the protection of its valuable assets rather than currently unprofitable ones on the speculation that they will lead to future gains.
MS also has certain (though not very severe) limitations on its flexability due to its monopoly conviction. It is possible that divisions of MS, including the entertainment section, could spin off to avoid these complications, but the resulting company or companies would not have the consolidated MS's resources.
In all of this, it should be noted that Nintendo focuses pretty tightly on one industry, and this may make them more nimble than MS or Sony. Diversification may end up being something of a liability, depending upon how other divisions perform.
Personally, I hope Sony and MS bleed each other dry a bit; having choice in consoles and games is generally a good thing (although in this era of ports it seems to be less of a factor), but both MS and Sony don't need to cement their oligopolic positions even further. That would be detrimental for everyone except them in the long run.
Am I the only one that doesn't understand why everyone is praising the "magnifisciant" XBOX 360 over the other next-gen. As I see it XBox if the only one that doesn't offer me something exceptionnal that would make me buy it.
You have the three folowing, Xbox 360, ps3 and Revolution.
For Ps3 tough it is another cheap computer exclusivly made for game, the Ps2 has offer me an impressive array of different game genre. And many of these genre had a couple of great game. Not to mention that not many of these game were port to comp. I still wait for the same thing from Ps3.
Nintendo current and even next console, on his side is anything but a computer. GC had no online. 4 controler, a lot of coop multiplayer game. It is the perfect console for group entertainement. It also had a lot of exclusive title. Many of relaxing and funny game like mario party and other. So Nintendo was best to socialise physically while playing video game. And I'm still seeing the same public for the Revolution.
On his side, Xbox is only a cheaper computer. It doesn't even drag with a small array of different genre game, and a small array of game I can't already play on my computer. Even their main title Halo is playable on Computer. Xbox was missing variety and as the Xbox 360 just lunch it still miss any variety.
So, If there is one console to fall I can see only the Xboxes serie to do so. Not that I'm expecting this to come for this generation. I do not fear for Playstation and Nintendo for any danger.
As someone who works in the industry I can assure you guys that this isn't just speculation, it's speculation from a GAMER - not a BUSINESSMAN, ANALYST, or any other respectable opinion. About.com doesn't deserve to get all the hits that Slashdot just sent their way, by posting this stuff on Slashdot you're only encouraging other internet companies to also post presumptious crap.
The problem with this guy's prediction is that the XBox never even gained 20% marketshare whereas the PS2 has over 60%. I only took backwards compatibility into consideration for Nintendo, and never even stopped to think that Sony has TRUE backwards compatibility.
Then there's his moronic comment about how Halo 3 is going to squash poor Sony. Halo 2 was supposed to squash poor Sony and all they had to do was release a Slimline PS2 around the time GTA: San Andreas came out. At the time, analysts predicted that Halo 2 would become the top selling game of all time. But, as we all know, San Andreas outsold Halo 2 by leaps and bounds. Furthermore, it's unlikely that Rockstar will release a GTA for the 360 because DVD-9s aren't big enough to contain the streaming world they want on a single disc. The Dreamcast didn't sell well because Sonic, the game that made the Genesis a success, was on it. Nintendo is positioning itself to be the exciting FPS console so it's unlikely that Halo 3 will have the impact this borg believes in. (Not to mention the fact that Halo 2 was a colossal disappointment to gamers)
So, yeah, this guy is an idiot. He never mentioned Blu-ray, he never mentioned MGS4, Tekken, Square-Enix, or any other of Sony's exclusives. He didn't mention that, despite the fact that 360 is already out, more PS3 games are in development than 360 games. This is the most misinformed, misleading article that Slashdot has ever linked to.
Point 10 claims Sony will be funding it's losing electronics division with profits from the gaming division.
Why would Sony keep the electronics department around if it is losing so big? Either they are confident that it will catch up, ensuring short-term outside funding, or they would just sell the department.
Point 11 claims Halo 3 is the best game ever and will let millions of PS2 gamers dump their entire gaming collection, which they could have taken with them on the PS3, only to be able to play Halo 3 on X360. Besides, considering the PS3 will be relatively expensive anyway, why would MS cut the X360's price and lose even more on the box?
Slashdot social media options: AIM, ICQ, Yahoo, Jabber and Mobile Text. Why no MySpace?
... was choosing their locked-in proprietary disc format.
If they had gone with a standard DVD-ROM disc, they would have gotten much more third party support. Third parties don't like having to go through Nintendo for the production of their games, plus the reduced storage of the Nintendo disc makes it harder to do simultaneous releases on all three systems. As a result, the Gmaecube hasn't gotten any GTA3 games, which use all the space on the DVD-ROM.
All opinions expressed herein are my own, and not those of my employers, who are appalled.
Heres my predictions for this next generation (ps it takes a monkey to predict this):
*Xbox 360 will have terrible sales in Japan, Ps3 will beat it by a landslide and Nintendo will follow.
*The revolution controller wont be enough for Nintendo to beat Sony or MS only a few games will use it as advertised still kids and non-regular gamers will go crazy with it.
*Nintendo will keep pleasing fans but alienating third parties and the teen/mature market, the online service will be a success but the lack of mature/third party games will keep the revolution at bay.
*The PSP will eventually have a bigger better game library and act as a ps3 controller , the price will drop and a new version will be announced, still somehow it wont beat Nintendo at the handhelds market.
*Gizmondo and Ngage2 will flop.
*Phantom will never exist, after much talk the project will be cancelled , the producers will end up in criminal investigation sued by their own investors.
*Duke Nukem forever will be released for the x360 and people will be underwhelmed with it still it will sell very well then dissapear, a sequel will be announced and it will take 10 years or so to be released.
*Halo 3 will leave fans disapointed still it will sale a few million copies after a huge marketing campaign. The multiplayer will be amazing though. (although pretty much the same than halo2)
*Ps3 graphics will be EXACTLY the same than those in 360 in most cases, it WONT have a hdd and games will be $10 more expensive, hardcores will still buy it like fresh baked bread. (most ps3 games will use a regular dvd instead of blue ray)
*The ps3 will eventually beat MS in the console wars, the best RPG's and japanese titles will go to it, MS will still have a secure second place Nintendo will keep in third although their profits will be a lot bigger.
*EA will keep creating mostly crappy licensed multiconsole games, although some of them will be relatively good. the next Madden and Tony hawk will be announced.
*MS will announce Blue ray support for their next console, Nintendo will announce HDTV support for their next console and Sony will announce HDD support for their next console.
So pretty much, things will be pretty much the same waythey are now.
Go ahead MOD my day!
More opinions here
Nintendo fanboy discovers keyboard, internet. Now everyone must suffer.
2. The 360 only has a DVD drive in it. Many of today's PS2 and XBox titles already fill a whole DVD, and they have much simpler geometry, textures, and FMV clips than most next-gen games will have. 1080i video has about 6 times as many pixels as standard 480i video, so it's not hard to see how the size of textures and FMV clips would balloon just to keep pace with current-gen technology pixel-for-pixel. Then add in the enhanced geometry and the larger variety of assets that increased resources allow (and demand, even, to have that "next-gen" sheen), and you see how storage space will quickly become an issue. It doesn't matter if Microsoft releases an HD-DVD or Blu-Ray drive for the 360 later on, either -- most publishers won't bother to support it if it doesn't come standard.
3. The PS3 will have a Blu-Ray drive standard. Not only will it hold 6 times as much data as a DVD, but if Blu-Ray becomes the standard for HD video discs (which it certainly seems poised to do), that alone will help push PS3 sales, much like DVD-playing capability helped push PS2 sales. Next-gen consoles are geared toward HD content, so this will be a factor. Potentially a huge one.
4. For a large segment of gamers, XBox Live is not a selling point for the 360. I don't want to have to pay for an extra subscription service in order to play games online. I actually find that concept obscene, and I'm not alone in that opinion. Plus you have all the gamers who can't or just won't play online at all, so that won't impact their buying decision.
The way I see it, the 360 is pretty much only going to appeal to XBox fanboys and uber-hardcore gamers who already buy every system, and neither of those groups undercut Sony's potential market. Assuming the PS3 doesn't massively suck and they don't steal some major Sony franchise, the only way for Microsoft to gain ground at Sony's expense is to get current PS2 owners to pony up for the 360 early on, but then be so satisfied or starved for cash that they don't consider getting a PS3 later.
That level of supreme satisfaction seems unlikely given the huge franchises in Sony's pocket, and the cash angle seems pretty flimsy since it expects that someone who's willing to pay $400 to have a next-gen system right now would be completely unwilling to drop the same amount the following year on a system with some obvious advantages that'll also play all their existing PS2 and PS games.
Sorry, but the author seems disconnected from reality here...