The Odds at Macworld

Moby Cock writes "Jason O'Grady has posted the odds on what is to be announced at the Macworld Expo beginning next week. Coming in at 100:1 is OS X 10.5 and even money on a new and sexy Intel Mac Minis and iBooks. Gentlemen, start your credit cards."

Comments

The odds?

[sczimme]

If this guy is there, I would say the "odds" are well represented.

Re:The odds?

[John Harrison]

Once he stated that he thinks there will be a firmware upgarde to the iPod nano to support video I figured he was out to lunch. The 5G iPod has a hardware video decoder. You aren't going to be able to update your nano's software and get the same thing.

"start you credit cards"

[Pope]

OK, pal, sure.

I predict no 10.5, no Intel machines releases, nothing major. Just a bumped Mini.

Re:"start you credit cards"

[falcon5768]

considering there is a story just today with a quote by Jobs saying there would be some major releases. I would think your wrong.

Nah....

[millerjl]

Apple will announce the release of a 3 button mouse after they realized what a hit they had with their 2 button model...

Re:Nah....

[iotaborg]

Where have you been? The 'Mighty Mouse' has 4 'buttons' already.

Re:Nah....

[theAtomicFireball]

Sad thing is, all Mac software assumes one button so those extra buttons will be doing pretty much nothing the next few... decades or so...

*Buzz* Thanks for playing.

OS X has supported multiple buttons and scroll wheels natively since its very first release, as the OS's event architecture was originally designed to accommodate Next's three-button mouse. Apple continued to develop the multi-button support under OS X despite shipping a single-button mouse. Most OS X applications (Cocoa, Carbon, and even Java) have always automatically taken advantage of the OS-level support for scroll wheels and right-clicking for basic tasks (e.g. copy, cut, paste) without doing anything, plus OS X developers routinely add additional contextual menus and other types of support for modern mice. I don't know a single OS X developer who routinely uses a single button mouse, and I've met a good number of them. On top of that, I believe that the Mighty Mouse's buttons are fully customizable in the System Preferences (not sure on that - I still use an old Logitech mouse on my Mac)

OS X applications never require a multi-button mouse, but they almost universally support them.

Re:Nah....

[Jeremi]

Where have you been? The 'Mighty Mouse' has 4 'buttons' already

In my experience, the 'Mighty Mouse' is difficult to use as a two-button mouse, because if you have a finger resting on the "left-button region" of the mouse, tapping on the "right-button region" gets interpreted as left-clicking rather than right-clicking. In order to successfully do a right-click, you have to remember to lift your finger off of the left-button region first, which is really unintuitive and annoying.

Have other people noticed this problem also, or am I doing something wrong?

Re:Nah....

[Jeff DeMaagd]

It's true. It doesn't work well with right-handed use. Still, for having the easiest scroll ball, having the easiest side scrolling, and the easiest middle button of any scroll mouse, I think it still wins, just not as large of a margin as it should.

The side buttons are kind of worthless though, given how much force it takes to activate.

check with the lawyers

[User 956]

You can always tell which rumors are true by the rapid-fire Apple lawsuits to the websites responsible.

Re:check with the lawyers

[DavidLeblond]

Yup! Because the Asteroid rumors were spot on! :P

iLife '06 comes in at 10:1

[carou]

Personally I'd have said this was a dead certain - all the previous versions have come in at MacWorld with an annual release cycle. Surely the only question is what new features will be in it?

• Front Row?
  
• New program providing PVR functionality?
  
• Blogging tool? - actually no, that should go in .Mac instead.
  
• Backup moved from .Mac to iLife?
  
• Finance program or tax calculator?
  

Re:iLife '06 comes in at 10:1

[ronanbear]

At 50:1 for an x86 PB I'd put $30-$40 on one and that way I could afford one to buy one straightaway. I don't think those odds are realistic. With iLife 06 being good value at 10:1 a $5 bet would more than pay for the PB bet even if there weren't PBs.

Re:iLife '06 comes in at 10:1

[Anonymous Coward]

Front Row

An interesting thing about Front Row is that it is installed into /System, which makes it likely that it will become a standard part of the OS in due time (Probably 10.5), and not part of iLife. There really isn't any reason not to, as it doesn't add much functionality on it's own, and is basically pointless without the remote.

Re:iLife '06 comes in at 10:1

[Moby Cock]

I'd like to see what Apple could produce in this area.

As would I, however, in the meantime, perhaps this may interest you.

Price increases for iTunes

[hsmith]

I have no problem paying $.99 for a song, but i will pay no more. This happens and I will be looking other places for my music for my iPod. They have to pay none of the traditional distribution costs of CD's, so they shouldn't even be the price they are now. you want to be greedy, i'll look elsewhere.

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[jocknerd]

Well considering that it wouldn't be Apple's choice to raise the prices, I would think it might be pretty hard to find lower prices from legitimate online stores.

Personally, I don't care if the prices go to a tiered structure. I don't buy the "hits" so the songs I'd purchase would probably come out cheaper than $.99.

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[JWW]

I would have to agree with you. The music industry is looking INSANELY greedy with this move. I hope Apple holds out and holds their feet to the fire.

My prediction: If Apple goes to $ 1.99 for popular songs (read all but a small token number of the songs on the sight), allofmp3.com will begin to become an _enourmous_ hit (think Napster at its height). The RIAA is going to absolutely freak out and do everything in their power to shut them down. The funny thing is that that sight is bringing true market dynamics to selling music online (along with giving customers what they want, no DRM crap), but as much as they _say_ they are capitalists, the RIAA is just a price fixing oligarchy.

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[SteeldrivingJon]

The music industry would, I'm sure, like to have a tiered structure set up like so:

Tier 1: Music you don't buy: $.49
Tier 2: Music you do buy: $2.99

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[frankthechicken]

Now that would be a great business plan, charging people for things they don't buy.

Now, how to market it.

Obviously the RIAA's attempt has been less than satisfactory.

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[jone1941]

Try emusic.com (look it's not even a referral link just the url). I like it so much I don't even care about the referral bonus for me! Seriously, even at the cheapest plan ($10/month) you get 40 tracks which is about $3/album depending on the number of tracks. It's largely independent labels so you aren't buying into the BS being shoved down the MTV/Radio tunnel of crap. Oh yeah and you get more tracks per $ with bigger plans and discounts on yearly purchases. God I should just get a job working for them.

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[croddy]

As I understand it, under Russian law, internet distribution of audio recordings is viewed as we would view cable television -- it's a transmission, not a copy. If you've secured broadcast rights (and they have), then you can transmit audio recordings over a network cable.

Musicians obtain the vast majority of their income from live performances. Recordings serve the same purpose as radio play -- to promote performances. AllofMP3 does not represent a market failure.

There was music before there were records or radios. Selling copies of pre-recorded music is a very recent phenomenon for this art form. The disappearance of substantial cash flow from record sales will not harm our musical culture.

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[Narcissus]

Just because they're not paying the creators, doesn't mean it's not legal. They say they have the money put aside, ready for when the various publishers register for it (as required by Russian law).

I've never seen a site that says "yep, allofmp3.com is illegal". In fact, I've never seen a music or RIAA rep say that, which is pretty unusual.

Firstly, I would say that the music industry guys WON'T register as required, as they DON'T want to provide legitimacy to the site. With the site running from Russia, and the apparent rules over there that let this site be set up in the first place, you can see that they are unable to force a particular pricing model, right? No, you have to register for the money that is required, without any ability to influence pricing.

Surely they don't want to make this site legitimate, when they legally have no way of controlling it (only benefit from it).

Just to address those people that say "well, they should be sending the money to the companies, instead of waiting for them to ask": when someone goes on government provided welfare (that is, when there is a law that provides financial recourse for your situation), is it the government's job to make sure they know who needs it and just send it directly?

Again, if someone can show me (a half believable) link that says "yep, allofmp3.com is illegal" I'll accept that, but until then, I have to believe that Russian law permits this...

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[grub]

Now that would be a great business plan, charging people for things they don't buy.

Cable TV networks charge you for things you don't watch. In order for me to get The Space Channel (in .CA) my cableco's package also included crap like The Golf Channel and StarTV (entertainment news). Screw 'em, cancelled cable and download the odd show I want to watch.

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[utexaspunk]

dude. i have to be a pedant- the word is site, not sight.

sight = vision.
site = location.

as in, "we have an on-site admin" or "can you send someone out to the job site to check on this?". while there are many sights to be seen at various sites on the web, one does not go to a websight, but to a website.

got it? kthxbye.

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[Luscious868]

I have no problem paying $.99 for a song, but i will pay no more. This happens and I will be looking other places for my music for my iPod. They have to pay none of the traditional distribution costs of CD's, so they shouldn't even be the price they are now. you want to be greedy, i'll look elsewhere.

I'd totally buy into it if they also drastically lowered the price of less popular tracks. I don't listen to top 40 crap anyway. Go ahead and jack the price of Jessica Simpson tracks up by two or three times what they cost today just as long as you lower the prices of the less popular tracks by the same scale. You'd be doing us all a favor.

Of course we all know that's not how it would happen. If the RIAA had their way the popular tracks would be "raised slightly" to $3.00 a track and less popular tracks would "drop drastically" to $0.95 a track.

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[NDPTAL85]

The only problem with eMusic is that the MTV/Radio tunnel of crap is the stuff most people, myself included, want. All I could find on eMusic was no-name...crap that I had never heard of and am not interested in. All the POPULAR music is on iTunes or Rhapsody. I gave eMusic a shot and it would be a great service if they had you know stuff people actually want.

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[C0vardeAn0nim0]

allofmp3.com is not illegal in russia, that's why RIAA bought a resolution on the american senate on an atempt to bully russia into passing some sort of DMCA. here.

now let the "soviet russia" jokes begin.

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[djdavetrouble]

I'll never buy anything transcoded to a lossy format. Apple has been ready to deliver full quality audio for some time (ALAC, apple lossless audio codec), but I am sure the labels are adamantly against _THAT_

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[HTH NE1]

Tier 1: Music you don't buy: $.49
Tier 2: Music you do buy: $2.99

Imagine if this were literally true: the prices you see are prices pitched to you individually based on their profile of you and your purchasing history. If your history shows you buy everything put out by a particular artist, those titles are pitched at higher prices to extract more money from your obsession-compulsion. Others may pay more or less.

It is technically feasible today: pricing not for what the market will bear but what each individual will.

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[Narcissus]

Actually, I do believe that they have the money put aside, as I have not seen any reason why they wouldn't.

Now assuming they have the money put aside, as is required by Russian law, is it my fault that the recording companies haven't registered for the money?

No. In fact, if I were a recording artist, I'd be hounding my manager and anyone else that would listen to get their arses in to gear and sort it out because it's their fault that I wasn't getting my money.

Like I said in another post: if I were able to get government welfare but hadn't registered for it, whose fault is that? Mine, pure and simple. The money's there and the government is willing to give it to me, but I need to register for it to claim it.

I kind of look at it this way: if the money wasn't there, why haven't the record companies applied for it then told EVERYONE that it's not there? I mean, in one fell swoop, that would bring the whole reputation of the site down.

Again, it's no-ones fault but the record companies if they can't either:
a) register for the money and get it; or
b) register for the money, find out it's not there and yell it from the hilltops that it's a ripoff site.

Like I said: that would once and for all tell the world about the truth of that site.

Instead, they sit there. Why aren't their artists complaining, forcing them to do what allofmp3.com says they need to do, just so that everyone can know the truth?

I think (and will continue to do so until shown otherwise) that they WILL NOT register because they KNOW that it's all above board, and they DO NOT want to legitimise that site. Pure and simple.

Naturally, saying "obviously it's a fake because they don't give any money out" is also pure and simple. But in the end, they've shown their hand: "this is what you need to do to get your money". Why is NO-ONE willing to call their bluff?

It's just not as simple as saying "it's a fraud".

Just for the record, I don't buy from allofmp3.com. I don't buy from iTunes and I don't download music illegally.

My entire music collection was either bought on CD or from independent sites such as eMusic and Magnatune.

I just can't see how anyone can say "it's obvious that it's a scam" when it's so easy for the recording industry to jump through a few hoops and say "yes, it is a scam."

Why has no-one tried to claim their money?

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[Narcissus]

This is exactly my point, but we all can't have it both ways.

People complain "but it's taking money away from the artists". I say "no, it's the artists' managers and so on who are taking the money away from the artists, as they're frightened of admitting that it's a legal form of distribution, while still having no way to limit that distribution".

The record companies are stuck between a rock and a hard place in that that is their exact situation: they either take the money and have no control or don't take the money and screw their artists.

I'm sure they'll take the second option, but that doesn't automatically mean that allofmp3.com is the baddie. If you owed me $100, offered it to me and I don't take it, no-one would point at you and say "man, you're an arsehole, not paying back that money". No, they point at me and say "you moron, why didn't you take the money?"

But for some reason when it comes to record companies and allofmp3.com, most people in this whole offtopic debate keep doing the former...

Re:Price increases for iTunes

[ktakki]

Musicians obtain the vast majority of their income from live performances. Recordings serve the same purpose as radio play -- to promote performances.

I see this falsehood repeated so often, especially when P2P is the subject. Having spent twenty years in the music industry, I can say with assurance that both of the above sentences are completely backwards.

In 2003, US gross numbers for live music totalled $2 billion. That same year, recorded music grossed $12 billion.

Most touring acts are lucky to break even. The exceptions are the top tier acts (U2, Rolling Stones) that can get $300/seat, and jam bands like Phish and the Dead who can count on their fans attending more than one show per tour and who have a low overhead (e.g., no flashy video walls). Losing money on a tour is so common that many bands' lawyers and accountants set up a shell corporation for the duration of the tour just to shelter the bands' assets from their creditors.

There are so many people getting paid during a tour, so many hands out waiting for their cut: the owner of the club/hockey arena/stadium/muddy field, the promoter, the insurance agency, the ad agency, the hired security goons, the (union) riggers who fly the lights and PA speakers, the people who lease the PA, the people who lease the van/semi/bus, the people who drive the van/semi/bus, roadies, techies, caterers, your manager, your agent, your lawyer, your accountant, and the person who stays behind at your house to make sure your rent is paid, your bills are paid, your plants are watered, and your cat doesn't die of loneliness and starvation. Don't forget your per diem on the road, meals on the road, and a place with a hot shower and a soft bed waiting for you at 3AM when your day is over. Touring is an exercise in logistics that makes Operation Desert Storm look like a picnic at the beach.

Bands tour in support of their record. That's why many recording contracts allow for label support of a tour once the recording is released. Not the other way around.

Finally, there are many acts that don't tour or stopped touring altogether. XTC rarely played live because Andy Partridge had stage fright. The Beatles played their last show in 1966 and kept releasing records for nearly four years, getting filthy rich in the process.

k.

Gentlemen, start you credit cards.

[mynickwastaken]

I have a colleague which likes almost everything coming from Apple.
In the last time I have the impression that he is working, here in our company, for nothing.
I told him, that would be much easier, to talk with the payroll, so that they send his salary directly to Apple.

Stupid odds

[Anonymous Coward]

Where the hell are the odds for overblown hype?

The irony

[drsmithy]

From TFA:

Apple has recruited a bunch of former Sony VAIO engineers for the project and the PowerBook successor is rumored to be 20-25 percent thinner.

Oh, man, that's gotta hurt the Mac zealots even more than the switch to intel. Apple hiring *PC laptop designers* to build the next Powerbook.

Re:The irony

[Anonymous Coward]

Nothing new. Sony designed the PB100.

Re:The irony

[bodgit]

Oh, man, that's gotta hurt the Mac zealots even more than the switch to intel. Apple hiring *PC laptop designers* to build the next Powerbook.

Why? Who do you think makes the laptops for Apple? The same OEMs that make all of the PC laptops, that's who.

Re:The irony

[ThaFooz]

Oh, man, that's gotta hurt the Mac zealots even more than the switch to intel. Apple hiring *PC laptop designers* to build the next Powerbook.

I think Mac zelots (arguably myself included) are more enamored with the OS than the hardware. My gripe with PC manufactures out there is a lot of shoddy support, bottom-of-the-barrel parts, and bulky/ugly laptop design and only a handfull of gems.

Re:The irony

[Andy_R]

Manufacture != Design

Re:The irony

[dracken]

Actually the Mac zealots were won over when Steve announced "we are moving to intel chips, iNTEL wink wink you know what I mean ?"

Re:The irony

[gnasher719]

''Nothing can come good from offering an ultra thin laptop.

The thinner it is, the more suspectible it is to braking. ''

Absolutely. I always slow down very gently when I have one in my car. It is so susceptible to braking, I suspect it would break if I brake too hard.

Re:The irony

[jcr]

Oh, man, that's gotta hurt the Mac zealots even more than the switch to intel.

As it happens, the intel announcement was taken with very little complaint in the Mac community. I went up to the SF apple store the day after the keynote last year, and it was business as usual. One sales associate there told me about one fanboy he pretty much needed to talk down from a ledge, but that was about it.

Apple hiring *PC laptop designers* to build the next Powerbook.

Want to talk pain? Imagine being one of those Sony designers, doing all that fine electronic and mechanical work, and having the quality of the product still be limited by Microsoft. At Apple, they'll be able to specify better materials, because there's actually enough margin to support it. Viao notebooks are cleverly designed, but the economics of the PC world means they have to be flimsy.

-jcr

Re:The irony

[Tim Browse]

The original Vaio laptop was supposed to be a Macintosh, too, but Apple told them to get lost, so they made PC laptops instead.

Which makes the hiring of Vaio engineers (if true, of course) all the more amusing.

Upcoming products

[pieterh]

1. Improved video iPod with larger horizontal screen
2. More tie-ins with TV producers

Who cares about the pro users?

[SteeldrivingJon]

O'Grady writes :"Hopefully it'll be the PowerBook nano I've been dreaming of. Unfortunately, it's not likely as the pro software (Final Cut, Creative Suite, etc.) isn't universal binary yet. Rosetta emulation isn't fun folks. Odds: 50-1."

So, basically, he's saying that because a certain segment of the userbase will be waiting a little while, EVERYONE should wait?

If Apple doesn't ship Intel Powerbooks now, these users are going to be waiting, because they certainly aren't going to buy G4 powerbooks unless they absolutely have to. If Apple does ship Intel Powerbooks now, these users are going to be waiting for their apps to be shipped as Universal binaries.

So, given that these customers are ogoing to be waiting either way, why shouldn't Apple get hardware on the market to serve the customers who *can* buy now? Customers for whom XCode is their main app, not Photoshop or Final Cut.

Re:Who cares about the pro users?

[SteeldrivingJon]

It's not like this wouldn't be known up-front. Further, I would expect the very fact that so much runs, and so well, that any apps not ready yet won't be given much weight. And, they'd be shipping early.

Do you honestly think Apple is going to sit on their hands until Adobe gets their act together and ships?

Re:Who cares about the pro users?

[ivan256]

So, given that these customers are ogoing to be waiting either way, why shouldn't Apple get hardware on the market to serve the customers who *can* buy now?

Because unlike every other laptop vendor out there, Apple is all about the full experience, not just the box. If Apple did what you're describing, why wouldn't people just go buy a Dell, or a Sony instead? It's the same hardware for the most part now...

If they want to keep their premium rep, they can't ship the new hardware until *all* of the new software is ready.

Re:Who cares about the pro users?

[cosmo7]

Historically,

Apple switches to 32-bit clean 68K: Adobe promptly updates Photoshop
Apple switches to System 7.0: Adobe promptly updates Photoshop
Apple starts using 68040: Adobe promptly updates Photoshop
Apple switches to PowerPC: Adobe promptly updates Photoshop
Apple starts using SMP: Adobe promptly updates Photoshop
Apple switches to OS X: Adobe promptly updates Photoshop

So except for these events you're correct. If you want a laggard, try Quark.

Re:Who cares about the pro users?

[SteeldrivingJon]

"How many teens are buying 30" apple displays and $1500 video cards to play Quake? Few. Quite a few professional graphic designers and videographers are!"

And (Mac, Unix, Java) developers, scientists and, well, people who like good technology and can afford to splurge.

It's been widely noted how common OS X laptops have become at technical conferences and get-togethers. Those people are all potential happy purchasers of Intel Powerbooks, who would probably not be satisfied with an iBook (for one thing, iBooks don't have DVI out.)

The Mac user world is not divided up between graphic/sound pros and teenagers. Graphics, video, and sound pros are not the only customers buying Powerbooks, with everyone else buying iBooks.

I work for a huge global consulting company, which is Windows-oriented, but I spotted one manager-level employee at the Philly office who preferred to use a 17" Powerbook, even though he also had to lug around a Windows laptop for occasional use.

This seems to be news to a lot of people: Powerbooks are not the exclusive territory of graphics/video/sound pros.

They forgot the..

[majest!k]

Odds that Steve Jobs won't wear black:

999999999-1

Re:They forgot the..

[antifoidulus]

What about the odds that Steve Jobs will announce he is in fact the second coming of Christ? Could you worship a black turtleneck wearing savior?

Re:They forgot the..

[pete-classic]

Wow, are you confused about mathematical symbols.

You could have said 1 in 999999999, or 999999999 to 1, or 999999999:1, or even 999999999/1. You can use words and the word ratio with a hyphen, like "big-tiny ratio", and I guess you could extend this to nine hundred and ninety nine million, nine hundred and ninety nine thousand, nine hundred and ninety nine-one ratio, but that's just crazy.

Incidentally, what you said really means 999999998 to 1. Hell, maybe that's what you meant, which would lead me to believe you have a whole other set of problems!

Of course, I have problems of my own. Notably I have way too much time on my hands!

-Peter

My breakdown...

[csoto]

10. OS 10.5 - not gonna happen. Apple is focused on Rosetta/Xcode QA for Mac OS X86. Whatever works well gets ported to 10.5 (think of 10.4 as the beta for X86)

9. X86 Powerbook - Could be. I would bet on this one.

8. iWork '06 - Could be. Who cares? I really like iWork '05. Pages is a treat, and Keynote is indespensible for me. But if they are working on a spreadsheet, yeah, this is the time to release it.

7. iLive '06 - Unless it adds things similar to Front Row, I don't see that it needs anything more than bug fixes. I wouldn't bet on it.

6. BT remote - Definitely going to be some kind of Front Row remote. Bluetooth? Probably. All new Macs have it, for several months now.

5. iTunes price increases - Not gonna happen. Steve knows this market. The market will not ignore him, no matter how greedy they are. Too much money is being made.

4. AirPort Ultra - Neat idea, but I won't bet on it. I would buy one, though :)

3. 1GB iPod Nano - Don't think so. The shuffle fills this space, but that's not big enough for the Nano's market segment.

2. X86 Mac Mini - I'd bet on this. I might even buy one for my parents. Their old IBM suck ass.

1. Widescreen X86 iBook - This one is obviously going to happen, but probably not now. Apple will drop 4:3 format entirely, as will the rest of the world (showing they are, as always, technology leaders). They just won't cannibalize Powerbook sales with iBooks until they have milked it long enough.

Re:My breakdown...

[antifoidulus]

It will be interesting to see whether or not Apple will update the powerbook or iBook first. Obviously the powerbook needs a serious upgrading, although I love the powerbook that I bought in May of last year, if I didn't get $400 off due to a very generous campus promotion, I would have never bought it. The machine is way too underpowered compared to the competetion.
That being said, the switch over to Intel is obviously going to be a big one and the chances for serious bugs is still high even with a lot of testing. Apple could try rolling out the mini/iBooks first to test the waters, knowing that pro customers make up a lot of Apple's revenues and are much less tolerant of bugs than say consumers.
Regardless, twenty-aught-six should be an interesting year for Apple!

Re:My breakdown...

[BenjyD]

But if they upgrade the iBooks first, won't they be significantly more powerful than the Powerbooks for a while. Assuming Apple is going for a new Pentium M of some kind, that is.

Re:My breakdown...

[Glock27]

Yonah will be slow enough already. The vast, VAST majority of Mac software will be emulated for 2006 and will be slower than current Apple laptops.

I've seen this incorrect information in more than one place. It's not emulation, it's on-the-fly translation. It is not painfully slow, and some of that software will run substantially faster on the new notebooks than on the old G4s.

Native x86 software, of course, will be faster still.

I'm getting an Intel Powerbook as soon as I'm reasonably sure there aren't design/manufacturing issues.

Yonah is hot, power hungry, 32bit, and has pathetic floating point performance.

Not one of these points is correct. Nice job.

Re:My breakdown...

[Dr. Spork]

One thing you can bet on is that 10.5 will be released simultaneously with their first Intel-based machine. You'd be crazy to bet that the latter can happen before the former. What would it run? There won't be a 10.4X86....

Re:My breakdown...

[MojoStan]

Am I the only one who thinks that apple will just release a non-yonah based ibook.?

No, me too. I think we are the only two.

I mean they want to have differentiation between the consumer and pro models. Why not release the ibook with "similar" specs to the current powerbooks with celeron or lowend pentium m processors? This will prevent major cannabalization of the current powerbook lines and allow them to release the yonah based powerbooks as the pro model they really are.

There will be a single single-core version of Yonah at launch and this might be a good candidate for the iBook (with PowerBooks being dual-core). However, at $209, the single-core Yonah seems a bit expensive for a "low end" notebook. In a few months, Intel will likely release Celeron M CPUs based on the Yonah core (single core), but with a lower FSB (533MHz vs 667Mhz) and less L2 cache (1MB vs 2MB). These would be way too late for a MacWorld announcement.

I think there's a very good chance that the current Dothan-based Celeron M will be used in the new iBooks (and maybe Mac minis) that are expected at MacWorld. Based on the current Pentium M core (but with lower FSB and L2 cache), the Celeron M is cheap, fast, and runs cool.

The current Celeron M does lack SSE3 support and many people think SSE3 will be required for the new Intel Macs. However, I think this assumption might be false and is based on the fact that the Dev Kit version of OS X for Intel requires SSE3 (the Dev Kit CPU has SSE3). Since the Dev Kit version was only intended to be used on one CPU, and SSE3 is off by default in XCode, I suspect that SSE2 will be enough for the official release of OS X on Intel.

Re:My breakdown...

[toddestan]

Apple's had widescreen laptops for years. I think your parent post was saying they'd be the first to drop 4:3 entirely. Hence the world "entirely" contained therein.

Except that they would not be first. I checked a random PC laptop vender (Sony) and they don't have any non-widescreen models at the moment. Sorry.

I predict

[Zog The Undeniable]

It will be white and the name will begin with "i".

I'm sure they'll keep flogging the iPod cash cow; maybe an iPod portable DVD player?

Re:I predict

[93 Escort Wagon]

Shouldn't that have been "iPredict"?

How will we know?

[tcoady]

According to macrumors.com there will be a blackout:

Thank you for your email. A replay will be available on http://www.apple.com/quicktime/mac.html, but there are no plans for live streaming.

new and sexy Intel Mac Minis and iBooks

[digitaldc]

Does this mean if I buy one I will get laid for certain?

Re:new and sexy Intel Mac Minis and iBooks

[sqrt(2)]

Not for certain, but I'd give you 3.1x10^8 to 1.

Intel Integrated Graphics

[Anonymous Coward]

I'd bet a wad of cash that, assuming they're introduced at MacWorld, both the new Mac Mini and iBook will sport Intel Integrated graphics.

I know game performance isn't exactly up to snuff on the Mac but I certainly don't think such a move would help the matter.

Re:Intel Integrated Graphics

[Glock27]

I doubt that, only because I don't think the integrated graphics would be adequate for Tiger's eye candy.

Your doubts are unfounded, the demo Jobs gave at the Intel announcement WWDC were all on a desktop box with integrated graphics - identical to all the x86 development boxes that've been sent out.

MacworldExpo.com is hosted on several Windows 2003

[Mr. Kimba]

Just wanted to throw that into the mix. Useless info, with humor

http://toolbar.netcraft.com/site_report?url=http:/ /macworldexpo.com

Inconsistencies...

[djrogers]

Yes, a sexy new Intel based mac mini seems likely, but in light of that why are they only giving 10:1 odds on an iLife/Frontrow upgrade? It seems the new mini would be the perfect platform to add PVR functionality to, but with no upgrades/additions to iLife, it seems the new minis would move from a killer living room appliance to a minor curiousity...

"Journalism"

[mblase]

How will we know?

Major and minor Mac news sites like Macintouch and MacNN always have someone in the audience blogging the Apple presentation in real time. Lately Apple's been blocking wi-fi connections during the presentation, but you still get the information immediately after it's over.

Re:Probably not...

[Chucker23N]

O'Grady is, as always, full of crap. The iPod nano has no video compression/decompression chip as the iPod with video does, and the PortalPlayer chipset it comes with doesn't do real-time decoding of H.264. Supplying such a feature via firmware is impossible.

Re:A great technological marvel

[rjstanford]

I'd be happy if it was offered as a two-button mouse on the powerbook, personally. Everything else is easy enough to swap out - and I could even see keeping it to one-button on the iSeries. But I'd like a two-button on my next OSX laptop.

BT Mighty Mouse

[HogGeek]

Personally, I'm hoping for a BT Mighty Mouse.

He doesn't bring that up, or do most think it is so insignifigant, that it doesn't rate being mentioned.

Huh?

[macwhizkid]

Interesting speculation, but a lot of it just doesn't quite add up.

-The AirPort "Ultra" would "be able to stream video to your TV - in High Definition". Where is all this HD content coming from? Not from the iTMS, not from DVDs. Assuming this AirPort is running 802.11g, streaming HD content is iffy at best. Apple is known for making things easy. I don't see how this could possibly fly as a consumer product. Maybe in another year or two, with faster WiFi and more HD content.

-Jason reckons that the Intel PowerBooks won't be released because (despite all the engineering done) not all the pro software is written yet for Intel, and Rosetta emulation just isn't fun. But then his #1 prediction is for Intel iBooks? Doesn't make sense to me.

-Why are iLife & iWork updates so unlikely (10% and 4% odds, respectively)? Unless Apple is just willing to let this software die (unlikely given relations with Microsoft), this is practically a given. Maybe not until summer, but the odds of an announcement or mention are more likely on the order of 50% - 75%, IMO.

Sorry, I'm just not buying it. Guess I'll wait until next week to find out for sure.

Re:Jobs is the Anti Buddha

[SteeldrivingJon]

". I wonder if he tries to reconcile this in some consumerist branch of Buddhism."

Buddhism has a tenet known as "right livelihood", and for a layman selling consumer products doesn't violate it. Things like being a butcher, or selling intoxicants, or selling weapons would, but not the selling of computers, regardless of how pre-expo rumors can have a seemingly intoxicating effect on Mac fans.

Technically, it's the users doing it to themselves.

I'm holding out for

[metamatic]

Mac OS X 10.6 Liger.

Known for its skills in magic.

Re:Jobs is the Anti Buddha

[paiute]

The Buddha would tell us that anyone who goes on about Buddhaism for more than two sentences is to be ignored because they do not get it.

And since they're former Sony...

[doublem]

Since we're talking about former SONY engineers, the new laptops will also be riddled with even MORE DRM and a few rootkits thrown in for good measure.

SpeedBump's Mini wishlist

[SpeedBump0619]

Here's hoping that the new Mac Minis, whenever they arrive, have a few specific improvements:

1) Optical Audio (we want surround sound!)
2) Better DVD playback software (for a UI centered company like Apple, "DVD Player" program blows donkey wang)
3) RF receiver (for my kick ass universal remote, or maybe Apple can make a bluetooth+RF remote)
4) Better support for my TV (having to use VNC to set it up is beyond most people)

I've been using a Mac Mini as my entertainment hub for a while now (almost a year), and its great. DVDs, AVI and WM files, ITunes though my stereo, internet surfing on my HD TV, flash, movie previews, games; the list goes on and on. Its quiet, low power, wakes quickly, and does what I want it to do.

Oh, and can you guys please make it so I can autohide the menu bar? You know, like the dock can do.

Re:SpeedBump's Mini wishlist

[Richard W.M. Jones]

Better DVD playback software (for a UI centered company like Apple, "DVD Player" program blows donkey wang)

A DVD player which doesn't moan about regions and doesn't prevent you from skipping would be a good start. I know about VLC and MPlayer OS X, but they don't work well on all DVDs. I have Region 1 DVDs which I can't even play on my Mac, but which work fine on my Linux box. This isn't the way it's supposed to be ...

Rich.

Re:SpeedBump's Mini wishlist

[Whatchamacallit]

The region issue and unskippable portions have to due with the DVD standard to which the DVD Player 'complies'. The content creator puts those lockdowns in there. i.e. MPIAA, production studio, etc. There are ways around those features but then you are breaking the law... Apple has to comply to those features or they will loose their ability to distribute the DVD player at all (they license the codes to unlock DVD's). DVDJon wrote DeCSS so he could simply 'play' DVD's under Linux with a side effect that you can also copy the DVD. DeCSS makes it possible to unlock a DVD without the authorized license codes. Therefore, it bypasses the DVD standard controls. DeCSS is included in most Linux systems so that's why it works so well for you.

Why the "Replace Tivo" hardon?

[Viewsonic]

I dont understand this. Tivo right now, works perfect. It is the iPod of DVRs. The only way this will be replaced by Apple is if Apple releases a machine that can do CableCard HDTV recordings - And do it as simple and elegantly as Tivo can. We have a problem here, for this sort of recording, people will be wanting 500 gig or so of space. I hardly think you're going to be sticking this much space in a Mac Mini.

I just dont think Apple is going to make a DVR to actually compete with Tivo. Let alone "defeat it in one fell swoop!!#!11111!!!".

Might they make DVR software for say, college kids and such? With a little dongle for cable input? Sure. But this would hardly make any waves in the DVR market.

Re:Why the "Replace Tivo" hardon?

[Kitsune78]

Umm, not going to try to "convert" you, but I want to point out that a phone line hasn't been required for almost two years. In fact, my Tivos have never been on a phone line, and I wouldn't even know if the modems didn't work.

Well my friend that works at Apple says...

[BMonger]

We all know about the U2 branded iPod... you've drooled over the Harry Potter laser engraved iPod... 2006 brings you a new revolution in branding.

The Flying Spaghetti Monster iPod. This iPod includes a non-removable case for your iPod made out of durable foam latex. A respectable amount of "noodly appendages" keep the iPod off your desk and floating mysteriously in the air. This can be had for you and your loved ones for the price of... $599, $100 of which is donated directly to the beer volcano.

That sound you hear?

[TCQuad]

I don't buy the "hits" so the songs I'd purchase would probably come out cheaper than $.99.

That sound you hear in the background is thousands of executives worldwide laughing at your naiveté.

Apple Cell Phone

[CmdrPorno]

It may be 6 months or 6 years until Apple makes a cell phone, but I know only that I want one and that I will buy it.

An old catchprase

[Mercano]

It can be said about a woman looking for a date at an engineering school or next Apple keynote: "The odds are good but the goods are odd."

The one sure thing

[Geoff]

The one sure thing is that, whatever he announces at MacWorld, Steve Jobs will made it seem like the most amazing development in the history of computing, and the Apple Store site will be bogged down with orders.

Geoff

Noooooooo!

[sootman]

Apple's productivity suite will get upgrades to Pages and Keynote with the possible addition of a modern Office-killing spreadsheet application (rumored to be called "Numbers" or "Sheets"). If it reads and writes Excel files the Apple spreadsheet will be the final nail is Microsoft Office's coffin. Microsoft will waste no time in announcing the end of support for Office for the Mac if this happens.

And then Apple can kiss all of its corporate sales goodbye. Nope, not gonna happen. Maybe a light-duty, somewhat-compatible spreadsheet for people to make little lists with, but Apple knows it will lose more in corporate hardware sales than it can ever make back with their little $99-a-pop suite.

Besides, if there's one thing we have learned, it's that 100% compatibility with MS Office file formats is impossible. Can OOo do it? Can Quark or InDesign perfectly import Word docs? Hell, do MS Office for Mac and Win perfectly read each others' files? No, no, and no.

Re:Noooooooo!

[Goo.cc]

You're right, although I would like to see Apple support the OpenDocument format with the Pages application and TextEdit.

Re:Noooooooo!

[NardofDoom]

Hell. Microsoft's own software doesn't import everything correctly.

Awh shucks, well if it makes you feel better

[SmallFurryCreature]

Don't worry, all those Mac clowns are wrong. The real OS is linux. Feel better now? Now I am off to an extended lunch as gentoo does an essential emerge that is ensure to take the whole working day if I can find the right nice settings.

• Mac users don't produce because they are to busy worrying about scratches.
• Linux package users don't produce because they are to busy sorting out the latest dependency nightmare.
• Linux portage users will start producing right after this compile.
• Windows users don't produce because the last porn page they visited rooted their machine. Or put another way. Everyone is productive on your windows machine.

Wich can only lead to the conclusion that all the real work is being done on OS/2.

Pointless Macworld Story

[shotgunefx]

The last time I was at a Mac World was in the early 90s in Boston when I was a teen. I was supposed to be giving out free subscriptions to macworld magazine or something, but ended up mainly talking to Julie Strain and some other Penthouse Pets that were there promoting some Penthouse VCDs and the programmers of it. :)

Some executive from Microsoft coming over and hanging out too. With the programmers, basically talking about some info John Carmack posted on Worldnet BBS about using Eigenvectors for color quantization of video to 256 colors. A great excuse to spend some time in their booth ;)

When Carmack came up, of course so did Wolfenstein. I remember the MS guy talking about how it gave him motion sickness. LOL

I was suprised by the sheer amount of porn there. They had one porn booth that was enclosed in a curtain with the hardcore stuff. There were so many dudes in there, when you walked by, you could see their shapes presses against the curtains. Like in the movies when the ghouls start coming out of the wall.

Damn that's creepy. Last place I'm going to watch porn is pressed against 20 other dudes.

What I want...

[Cadre]

Backup moved from .Mac to iLife?

I'd like to see them open up the .Mac XMLRPC schema so it'd be easier for users to roll their own .Mac.

Ah heck, lets just list a couple of things I'd like to see (which are completely unrelated to iLife):

• Tabbed chat in iChat
• Single-system image or some type of tightly coupled clustering with NUMA
• Option to share podcast playlist in iTunes (right now, all playlists appear 'cept for the podcast one to users over Bonjour)
• Ability to force iSync to do "Last name, first name" on Motorola v550s (and any other Motorola phone)
• pf instead of ipfw
• OpenVPN support in the Internet Connect.app

Okay, I'm done... for now.

Quicken for mac

[JerkBoB]

Quicken for Mac is awful.

I'm glad to know I'm not alone in this sentiment. I tried migrating from Quicken 2005 for Windows (running in VMWare) to Quicken for Mac 2006 and it was a disaster. Migration issues aside, when I managed to get enough imported to start using it, it crashed left and right. Intuit's "support" consisted of a painful java-based chat with some ESL monkey who was totally unhelpful...

Now I'm working on getting my money back and figuring out some other way to get my wife involved with the finances.

Apple (aka. Steve Jobs)

[Savage-Rabbit]

Apple will announce the release of a 3 button mouse after they realized what a hit they had with their 2 button model...

Actually the mightymouse only has one button and it looks and works just like the old single button mice. The trick is that depending on which finger you press down on the single button with you get a left or right click functionality and the trackball on top of it doubles as a third button. This is a typical Apple (aka. Steve Jobs) solution:

Fact #1: Official Apple policy is that a user only needs one mouse button.
Fact #2: Unfortunately experience has shown that it is better to have more mouse buttons.
Fact #3: Since we are talking aboute Apple (aka. Steve Jobs) it is not an option to back down on Fact #1.

Ergo: Design a mouse that has a single button that works like two buttons and has a trackball built in instead of a scroll-wheel giving 2d scrollingcapability. This has the dual effect of adding a little novelty to a new product and most importantly it enables Apple (aka. Steve Jobs) to save face by not having to back down on Fact #1.

It never ceases to amaze me how Apple continually seems to succeed in coming up with gadgets that sell like hotcakes but that really are only redesigns or recombinations of already existing ideas. Both the iPod and the Mighty Mouse really just combinine two old ideas into a new one. I have seen mice with builtin trackballs before but no design that was quite as elegant as the mightly mouse. Similarly the iPod is nothing new either, the inovation is really to marry an MP3 player with an obscene amount of storage space and package it in an elegant and ergonomically well designed package. Both these are, surprisingly enough, ideas that nobody had thought of even if they had been bloody obvious for years.

Re:Apple (aka. Steve Jobs)

[GlassHeart]

It never ceases to amaze me how Apple continually seems to succeed in coming up with gadgets that sell like hotcakes but that really are only redesigns or recombinations of already existing ideas.

To put it bluntly, that's just because your expectation of what sort of innovation a good product should contain is abnormally high. All Dell ever seems to do is make things cheaper. All monitor manufacturers seem to do is to make bigger monitors with better resolutions. All printer manufacturers seem to do is to print smaller dots faster. The thing is, at some point the incremental improvements cross a threshold of usability and become hits. For example, once we got 1024x768 monitors and 300 dpi printers, the computer became a viable tool for desktop publishing. Similarly, my 128 MB Rio MP3 player was a mere toy, but once somebody found a way to hold hundreds or thousands of songs, the product was a very different gadget. We can't all be inventing revolutions like zippers and velcro every year, you know.

Re:Apple (aka. Steve Jobs)

[Have Blue]

No, the innovation with the iPod was not only to greatly increase all the technical specs of the player (not just storage space but transfer speed- Firewire was so much better than USB at the time there was simply no comparison) but to give the player a really well-thought-out interface (the wheel) and marry it with the best media management program they could get (iTunes). iTunes, the iPod, and the ITMS were all designed simultaneously as part of a single Apple initiative and had always been intended to work together.

Re:A great technological marvel

[Yahweh Doesn't Exist]

I have never seen a laptop that had two hardware buttons and was comfortable to use.

the best solution is something like SideTrack which lets you use your trackpad as up to 5 buttons and 2 scrollbars.

plus the design of only *needing* 1 buttons is great.

We're definitely getting Intel Macs.

[GFLPraxis]

Check ThinkSecret- they're almost always right, and cite reliable sources (the same ones that leaked the iPod Photo and Mac Mini originally) that we'll have an Intel iBook and Mini.

Re:Jobs is the Anti Buddha

[dr.badass]

Curious how Jobs being buddhist, he is responsible for such slavering of desire (according to the above, amongst the 'ignorant') in the products he works to create

I think you're misreading Buddhism. The Desire and Ignorance spoken of in the passage you quoted are personal in scope. One quenches his own desire, destroys his own ignorance, and thus (eventually) relieves his own suffering.

The desire for the product exists in the individual consumer, who is his own responsibility. Do people really blame Steve Jobs for somehow forcing them to desire things? If you're "suffering" from desire for an iPod, that's your own damn problem.

That said, it is wrong conduct to scheme and pursue gain for it's own sake, and one could argue that these are unavoidable for the CEO of a large corporation, but I suppose that's up to the adherent to decide.

Hm it seems doubtful Apple products are actually the path to spiritual awakening.

Who ever claimed they were?

Bah, humbug!!

[Savage-Rabbit]

I have a colleague which likes almost everything coming from Apple.
In the last time I have the impression that he is working, here in our company, for nothing.
I told him, that would be much easier, to talk with the payroll, so that they send his salary directly to Apple.

I could say the same thing about most of my colleagues and their expensive jeeps. There is no way I would ever get into that much debt because of a dispensable luxury like a car I only buy used ones and drive them until they fall apart out of fright when somebody honks at me at a traffic light. Now a (Apple) computer on the other hand, hmmmm... yes, that dispensable luxury I will endulge in because:

1. I earn my living of *nix based computers and runnign a *nix on the desktop helps me to avoid being reminded that Windows XP even exists.
2. I could run Linux but OS.X runs perfectly out of the box and getting mundane crap to work is usually much less hassle.
3. Most of the really worth while Linux software ports easily to OS.X.
4. With what I save on car loan payments I can afford buying high end computers.

Screw 10.5

[EvilTwinSkippy]

I just want 10.4 to stop crapping out as a Domain controller. We are rebooting our domain controller and file servers so often management is actually having me put together a proposal to migrate back to Linux. For those of you not in the Know, 10.4 server has a nasty bug that locks of the server when a particular sequence of events occur, usually during replication. (Which on an active Windows Domain happens every few minutes.) Apple has acknowledged the problem and a fix has been "any day now" ever since Tiger was released.

Firewire and iLife

[payndz]

From TFA:

Don't be surprised if this IBook is the first to ship without a FireWire port.

Which instantly eliminates one of the big USPs of the whole iLife suite - that you can import, edit and burn your own movies. Without Firewire, how are you supposed to get the data off your digital camcorder? (Do many camcorders support USB 2.0 yet?) And what about all those people (like me) who have their data backed up on Firewire external drives? What are they supposed to do, transfer it on Zip discs when they upgrade?

Hell, Apple invented Firewire, so it's not like they have to pay a per-unit royalty to have one somewhere on the machine.

Re:Apple

[Stormwatch]

They're going to polish up the Apple logo a little bit and call it a re-design.

Apple's logo is cool, but maybe a bit too sober. I think they could add some color to it, maybe if they used colored stripes, it would... oh, wait.

Re:How about giving putting a DVD-R in the iBook

[toddestan]

Dude. Sneaker Net is obsolete. Fucking transfer your data over the network. Or put the iBook in target disk mode and get on with life.

Those are just work arounds.

Fact is, this is how Apple works. They like to dangle a carrot in front of your face (The $999 iBook, the Shuffle) to get you interested. But the thing is, they cripple the low end models so they can try to upsell you to the higher end models. And they like to carefully set their price points so that the next model up is "just a bit more".

On the PC side of things, the manufacturers can't pull that crap. If Sony decided they weren't going to put a DVD burner in their lower end models to try to sell more high end models, everyone would just go and buy a Compaq/HP/IBM/Dell/Acer/Gateway/EMachines/Toshiba/ ??? instead. And to someone who puts togther their own PCs with exactly what I want, Apple's way of doing things really seems bizarre at times and can really be a turn off.