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HD-DVD's Temporary Edge
kukyfrope writes to mention a GameDailyBiz article speculating on the edge HD-DVD will have on Blu-ray in the near future. From the article: "Although Toshiba may take round one, in the long run 'complicating factors may shift the balance.' ABI predicts that by the end of 2006, only about 30 percent of the global hi-def movie player market will be controlled by Blu-ray, but that could quickly change as Sony launches its PlayStation 3 (which has a Blu-ray drive) worldwide this November. '...its large expected sales figures could change the market dominance picture dramatically,' notes ABI."
Isn't the competing standard for next-gen optical storage media named "Blu-Ray", and not "Blue-Ray"?
:%s/Open Source/Free Software/g
YTARY!
Face it. The results of this pissing match will be the same as the results of the DVD pissing match. Everyone's player will support everyone's format. It won't matter what format a disc is recorded in because it will play anywhere.
This whole argument about "oh which technology is better and which one should we root for?" is crap and a smokescreen. The real argument is about who is building an easier remote control and more attractive cases. These are the things that matter to consumers. Points like which format is supported are moot because the machines will eventually support all the formats.
Aren't all these crippled by DRM so we should just dismiss them anyway?
This time around one of them is not backwards compatible (requiring an extra lens that would make players a lot more expensive).
On the other hand, that same one offers a more advanced technology... although probably too soon and too expensive.
We have quite an unpredictable match in front of us, with many variables... provider partnership, manufacturer partnership, success/failure of the PS3, user need for HD, HD-TV penetration...
It's not farfetched to think HD-DVD could be dominant for some time, then Blu-Ray later... or not, if it was perceived as a loser and went belly up.
How many people seriously watched DVDs on a PS2 instead of a real standalone player?
I did and still do. When I left my parents, I took my PS2 along with the rest of my stuff. Living in rented accomodation with no living room meant I had to watch TV on my 15in portable. I had a games console which conveniently doubled up as a DVD player. 4 years later I still see no reason to get a stand alone player while I still have my PS2 and eventually a PS3.
Summation 2
Well, we've seen how the adoption of UMD on the Sony PSP console did wonders for that media format. 8-)
My PS2 was my sole DVD player for the first two years I had it. I finally picked up a standalone unit once the prices dropped below $100.
This guy's the limit!
Geez, yet another "hd-dvd has the lead now, but who knows what will happen in the future, here are my guesses pulled out of my butt" article. Enough, all these stupid articles have absolutely nothing new to add. It's stop for the speculation to stop and time for the players and the consumers to start deciding. It's a waiting game now. Unless anyone actually chimes in with some interesting information (I'll repeat that, INFORMATION), not speculation, not wild-a** guesses, not yet another link to my blog to rack up adsense $$, I think that /. should declare a moritorium on these idiotic articles (not that I expect this to actually occur :( )
Thats not really a fair comparison though. The PSP was a platform that tried to launch its own proprietary format. The PS3 won't have its *own* format of movies, it'll just be the cheapest blu-ray player on the market. Same thing happened with the PS2. People didn't buy DVD movies because they had a PS2, it was the other way around. They bought a PS2 because it was a heck of a DVD player for the price at that point in time.
Han shot first.
I agree with you. The recent 'dumping' of UMD by major studios is a great example of how video game consoles don't drive movie sales.
Most non-technical adults with children have standalone DVD players even though their video game systems play DVDs.
The real factors to watch are affordability, availability of titles, and compatibility with TVs.
Reason, free market capitalism, and individualism
I'm a definite target-demographic for HD DVD.
I don't watch TV, I watch DVDs instead - probably 20+ movies per month via Netflix. I don't have cable/satellite.
I have a HD tv that I've been dying to see HD output on, and have an income level such that I could buy an HD DVD player without really batting an eye financially.
But you know what? Until it seems to be resolved which HD format is going to finally be THE ONE that the market settles on, I'm not buying any hardware. Furthermore, since I'm not buying hardware, I'm not signing up for the Netflix HD-DVD service so I'm (microscopically) reducing immediate demand for HD DVD.
Congratulations you bunch of selfish, greedy, dumbasses. Your pissing match over 'whose format is better' is no doubt causing hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of otherwise early-adopters like myself to wait to spend our cash on your equipment.
BRILLIANT.
-Styopa
My (and many people's) first DVD player was a PS2. My first HD VD player will probably be a PS3.
The mark of a mature person is not creating arbitrary criteria for considering others mature.
I did for a little bit, but the interface/playback was fairly crappy. The XBox had a vastly superior DVD playback/interface (in my opinion) so once I purchased an XBox that became my DVD player. The menu system of the PS2 DVD features were hard to navigate and the default settings (which it always seemed to revert to--there didn't appear to be an option to save custom settings) was less than ideal for playback on my TV. Plus, I felt that that XBox produced a SLIGHTLY better picture and richer sound than the PS2 did for DVDs. Still, IF I decide to get a PS3 then it will definitely be my Blu-Ray disc player (and I have no plans to purchase either a Blu-Ray or an HD-DVD player any time in the next 3 years). But I also have no plans to buy a $500 console any time in the next 3 years either... Nor even a $300 console. Once it gets to $200 or less (and has some good games) then we'll talk--until then: Viva La Revolution!
Read my blog posts on usability.
This article has too many "could"s and nothing solid to convince me that either outcome is possible. It's sort of like the early days of beta/vhs. What I'd like to see is an objective study comparing the different formats.
Nobody cares.
"I reject your reality, and substitute my own!"
I didn't purchase a DVD player until they were below $100 and I still do not own a PS2. The point is that the early adopters of new tech normally are the people that get screwed the hardest. You get bragging rights, but you also have to deal with bugs and high cost. As before, I'll be waiting until the dust settles.
I dont think it is going to matter at all who controls the market because in the next 4 years someone is likely to come out with a dual drive that reads both blu ray and HD-DVD. Id have to say though sony cant be feeling to good if the predictions for there drive's popularity is only 30% of the market. they dont want this to be another betamax and lose another format war that they spent millions on.
First, the PS3 absolutely will drive adoption. PS3 will probably sell 10 million units within two years.
Second, Blu-Ray has already had every major studio but one (Universal I think) commit to releasing content on Blu-Ray. HD-DVD still has three or four studios to convince to support its format.
Besides, Microsoft really likes HD-DVD...what more reason do you need to root for Blu-Ray? ;-)
(As an aside, I thought the fit Microsoft threw when it found out Blu-Ray software was going to be Java was pretty funny...)
Galileo: "The Earth revolves around the Sun!"
Score: -1 100% Flamebait
For me it is really simple. I will buy one when you can get a HD-DVD Blu-Ray all in one player. In the same way that there was DVD+R and DVD-R. In the beginning there were two and now the only ones on sale are multi format.
I know that there are differnt lasers and lenses but so what.
UMDs for the PSP did good, but the problem was that the movie companies were putting out old movies that weren't worth paying $20-30 for. Most people would pay that much for a new movie, but the majority of movies that came out were old ones that you could get on DVD for $6-10 on the sales racks. The Blu-Ray feature is just icing on the cake.
Can I bum a sig?
I think it would be premature to say that either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD is going to be a major player in the market. When the PS2 was released, DVD technology was readily available, and DVDs were a vast improvement over VHS without an exorbitant price difference in media. Both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD seem to be targeted toward the high-tech high-dollar crowd. Buying a new TV is a likely scenario for anyone trailblazing into this new media, and very few people might be willing to do that when they bought a HDTV set a only few years ago. Also, if the PS2 is any indicator of Sony's attention to media detail, the blu-ray player in the PS3 will be a poor substitute for a real Blu-Ray player. If either of the two technologies are to catch-on to the mainstream, either players and media will have to be competetively priced with current DVD technology, or many people will be buying new television sets. Both of these options seem to coincide with either technology taking many years to become dominant, which is paradodical, considering that you need a large portion of people to adopt a technology before it becomes dominant. Maybe companies such as LG will save us the hastle with the creation of a joint Blu-Ray/HD-DVD player.
"Bad times have a scientific value. These are occasions a good learner would not miss." ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson
I do watch DVDs on my PS2. The same could of said of XBox though, how many watch DVDs on that?
Anyway, at the end of the day it is just a marketing tool to shift more SKUs.
/. is good for you.
How many extra pixels will you be able to put on the 15" with the High Defination now?
--
Seriously though, I see the market for the High Defination DVDs as something which is better than normal DVD. The makers are going to be charging premium prices for a while. Not having seen either of these two formats I venture a guess and say in order to see a substantial benefit in quality you are also going to have the other componenant which is a very good television. The people who have these don't mind spending the cash for the stand alones and will do so. Whether the PS3 has the player or not won't increase sales for them.
Now, for the rest of the market--if you are saying that they will buy the PS3 and not the stand alone and reasonably save money, you are correct. However, the person saving money this way, on average, will not have the money for the other expensive toy: the television to view the better effects. My take is that people will buy a BR DVD for a premium price and play it in the PS3 on a regular television and not see much of a difference. When that happens they will ask why am I spending a premium on a BR DVD when I can buy the same for less. And from that PS3 might cause a spike in sales but then it will drop.
Quality Hosting e3 Servers
I wouldn't have any problem whatsoever using the PS3 in a similar way, assuming I had a reason to buy a Bluray player which I don't. In fact I don't see any reason I would wish to play HD-DVD or Bluray even if I had an HD tv. Upsampled DVDs would be perfectly acceptable for most purposes. I do think that Bluray is going to win out eventually.
I should add I've also watched movies on my PSP. Most weeks see me stuck on a train for a 3 journey. I've ripped a few movies onto PSP for such occasions. Got to do something with it...
I'd say the PS2 was the first DVD player for most of my friends. I know its anecdotal, but we were fresh out of college when the PS2 was released, so money was tight, but everyone picked up a PS2. It wasn't till a few years later that people started picking up standalone DVD players.
The majority of people in the states still do not have a HDTV. The majority of content via cable/satellite/air is still standard definition.
Both formats are disadvantaged to the mass populace until HDTV's *themselves* become commonplace.
I'll go with whatever format Apple ends up putting in their laptops. At this point, Blu-Ray is likely to be that format.
For the record, Holographic Versatile Disc sounds quite a bit superior; if only it were ready now. And I hate all that DRM crap -- we'd all benefit if some Asian companies got together and presented an open, extensible, non-DRM media disc. Even if I was stuck buying Chinese, Bollywood, and independent films for the first few years, I'd support it.
He who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me.
As much as folks might be up in arms over the superiority of one format or another, don't forget that there may be a third player in this race: on-line distribution. You can get TV shows off of iTunes now and download them in about 10-20 minutes. How long until movies see a similar distribution that actually works well. Sure they'll have to be higher quality than what iTunes offers for TV but I imagine that a happy medium between size and quality could be met, even for the HD crowd. When there's a decent on-line distribution method, a decent user interface to go with it, and a relatively inexpensive and easy way to get that video onto a TV, then this Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD war will be largely irrelevant.
It really doesn't matter who wins. Either way the average citizen is going to get screwed in the end by the DRM. Sure, hi-def is nice. Not killer, but nice. I know I certainly can tell a difference on my 50" TV, but until there is a way to bypass HDCP copyright protection I know I won't be buying into either scheme.
Now I've been following the articles but I'm not much of a mathematician so I'll have to leave it up to others to work on breaking the encryption. I'm sure it's doable given enough people and a little organization. My plan, on the other hand, is to work on the hardware end. It still is not against the law to take hardware apart and it is obvious that the signal has to get to the screen once it is decoded.
Time is what keeps everything from happening all at once.
Look, HD-DVD is available now, while Blu-ray is still struggling. The Fact that Sony couldn't get the PS3 released with Blu-ray technology now sealed its fate.
Plus, the simple fact is, Sony has never successfully launched a media format. BetaMax, MiniDisc, SuperAudio, UMD, MediaStick, and now BR-DVD you name it, if Sony had a hand it its development, it failed, most of the times miserably.
I think that both next generation DVD's will face serious lack of adoption as there just isn't any pressing need for consumers to upgrade their systems. But of the two formats, Sony doesn't have the reputation for making it work, and HD-DVD will become the next generation standard.
What will mark the success of this format is the first camp to offer a recordable PC drive. If Sony gets a Blu-Ray rewritable DVD drive before an HD-DVD, then I might change my story. But I doubt that will happen considering Sony is still struggling to define the format for read only drives.
I think Sony truthfully delayed the PS3 because they are uncertain if Blu-Ray will succeed. If they can't sell BR-DVD players and BR-DVD movies in the next 6 months, why release the PS3 with the failed Blu-Ray technology.
I have nothing against Sony, and look forward to the PS3, but I think in the long run I would put my money on ANY non-Sony inspired digital media. It just makes common sense.
I haven't thought of anything clever to put here, but then again most of you haven't either.
Exactly right. I would imagine the vast majority of the PS2 owners that intend to purchase the PS3 likely do NOT own a HDTV. The minority of PS2 owners that do own these HDTVs probably can afford and will purchase a stand-alone HD disc-player instead of relying on the PS3's hardware - blu-ray or not.
Myself, I have owned an HDTV for almost a year now and only receive about a dozen channels (HDNET, HD Discovery, HD HBO, Cinemax, Showtime, HD PBS, etc.) - through Digital Broadband Cable and broadcast. I also live downtown in a major metropolitan city. Had at least a dozens channels not been offered in my area, I would NOT have purchased an HDTV for a mere 3 broadcast HDTV channels (ABC, NBC, CBS).
If the PS3 does anything for the HDTV and HD movie market - it will encourage the purchase of a slew of reasonably priced HDTVs. But as far as being a deciding factor of Blu-Ray over HD-DVD, I really don't see it.
I know some people that did. Honestly though, it's a shitty DVD player, and even before the days of the PS2 you could get a refurb DVD player for dirt cheap.
The real question is if Sony will include a remote control for the unit. If so, I imagine more people would use it for movie watching. If it's an after-market accessory, or if you have to use the controller... not so much.
Well I trust Sony so much, I know they will do the right thing and be the winner, just like they have in the past with so many products.
Just like my BetaMax, my Sony Memory Stick, and my Star Wars Galaxies Jedi they destroyed to turn the game over to a 10yr old audience....
Of course I also enjoy the rootkits they make, that is always nice and consumer confidence building.
Sony will do well in Japan, but don't look for it to happen in the US, and the PS3 is not the media transition for Blu-Ray adoption.
I have a PS2, Xbox with DVD remote, and I still watch movies on my Media center PC or my stand alone DVD players, I didn't start buying DVDs because of my PS2 or Xbox... Actually my laptop was the reason I started buying them...
Everyone knows any media format crafted by Sony is doomed to fail. Maybe it's a curse, maybe God's pissed at them, who knows. But the fact remains, Sony formats fail. Always.
Sony still have a chance to retrieve the situation. Either reduce UMDs to a sensible price, e.g. 10. Or kill the format and entirely sell movies, e.g. through an online store. For extra points, they'd produce something akin to iTunes for the purpose and allow users manage their downloads and rip their own movies too. Of course, that assumes Sony has sense which is a highly debateable point.
My first DVD player was a PS2. I used it for about two-and-a-half years, and I'd probably still be using it now if it weren't for the fact that I was given a DVD recorder as a gift. It was sufficient for my needs.
My other processor is big-endian.
At this point it is even a little premature to believe that the PS3 will be coming out in November. The true test of that will be what we see at E3. Right now they don't even have a working compiler that works well with the Cell processor and sometimes are having to go to assembly. Talk about dev time... ouch! The more I find out about Blu-Ray, the more I think Sony may have bitten of more than they can chew. As one poster has already compaired Blu-Ray to the proprioritary format of UMD, it may end up having a similar fate like DVD-RAM did, if it can even get of the ground. Besides, anything most of Hollywood supports, i.e. MPAA, RIAA, is usually not the best thing out there. So I am slanted, this is /.
I eat Karma for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. That's why I don't have any.
it's blu-ray.
If the XBox did ship an HD-DVD version it would do much to level the pitch again. Though Blu-ray would probably still win out. Perhaps Microsoft knows this and will hum and haw until it's all over for HD-DVD. Of course they could go the other way and spoil the PS3 launch with a revamped XBox 360 which includes an HD-DVD drive amongst other things.
How many people seriously watched DVDs on a PS2 instead of a real standalone player?
Plenty. Besides, how many people had a DVD player before the PS2 launched? (1997 vs 2000) Now how many will have an HD DVD player before the PS3 launches...?
HDTV quality would be great, but not if we have to pay $1000s for an HDTV that might not be "compatible" (read, DRM capable), and another premium for a special player. Especially annoying when a $100 computer monitor is more than capable of displaying content at HDTV resolution. Then we get to pay lots more money to "upgrade" our libraries from DVD to a format we may not be able to back up or play at full resolution thanks to all the DRM crap. And we won't be able to skip the commercials. Is any ordinary Joe not going to see these problems? Not after the first ones to try it get burned and word spreads. The studios think we're all that stupid? DVD is good enough. I bet the negatives of DRM and price will more than offset the positives of higher quality video, and this will lose out the way Laserdisc did to VHS.
Intellectual Property is a monopolistic, selfish, and defective concept. It is "tyranny over the mind of man"
We have them to thank for products like UMD format, memory sticks, and the mini-disc.
Go Sony.
You tards.
Got to love Sony advertisement. That's all this was.
I predict that the ongoing arguments over which media will take off will be rendered moot due to neither format gaining ground. I don't think hdtv has the level of penetration necessary for people to justify upgrading their players and replacing their collections. Additionally, unless you're a videophile, the jump from DVD to an HD format isn't nearly as big as the difference in video quality as VHS to DVD, and VHS -> DVD was a revolution. VHS didn't have chapter skipping, you had to rewind tapes, they degraded over time, and they didn't have extras.
Translation:
Three people will have blue ray players, the other seven people who have a hd player will have HD-DVD.
The interest for these seems to hardly be there. I know I won't be buying one any time soon due to all the drm crap they force on you.
Lots of people did.
Its also a question of creating volume sales of Blu-Ray drives and discs via sales of PS3's and its games on the discs that in the long run will make individual drives cheaper to run.
Professor Karmadillo Songs of Science
Apparently, they're planning something and will do a product release in E3 this year. Microsoft Europes marketing executive Chris Lewis recently said in a interview by Der Spiegel(a german paper) to a question if 360's HDDVD-add-on was in the pipeline : "Absolutely, yes. We'll say a little bit more about it at E3. It will give people access to HD DVD.".
5 18,411855,00.html
When they asked how the movies could be viewed without HDMI in x360 he said a mysterious : "All I can say to you is -- there are interesting developments in the pipeline. We will make sure that the HD-DVD-peripheral device will meet all the requirements for consumers to enjoy high-definition DVD playback."
here's the rest of the article : http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1
-- Aniseed the Panda
If the outlook is dim, why is my Sony stock going up like mad? They have other businesses to be sure, but a loss in this arena would sting.
I don't really see myself using either format. Why? Because discs aren't how I consume media anymore. I download everything. I'm just waiting for them to come out with pay services with better quality, and then I'll be buying everything instead of pirating it. But either way, I'm not buying discs anymore. Why would I when they're DRMed to hell and want to bully me into purchacing "compliant" hardware? I'd rather just download the illegal unrestricted content. I do it for DVD-quality now, I'll do it for HD-quality later. Do I care if the pirate versions are recompressed slightly worse? Not really if I don't have to go hunting through a stack of easily scratchable or lost media that I can't transfer to other machines and devices.
If I had to pick one, I'd say HD-DVD. Why? 1. It's out now. 2. Mandatory managed copy vs voluntary managed copy. 3. More advanced codecs than mpeg-2. 4. Lack of regions? Not sure on this last one, but the 360 games have no regions, and I've heard Toshiba is pushing hard to remove the region system from HD-DVD.
Introducing the new Occam Fusion! Now with sqrt(-1) fewer blades!
Recall that if you use a HD-DVD and a non-DRM HDTV, you get a crippled picture. What moron wants to buy a HD-DVD and get 1/4 the resoltuion of Blu-Ray?
The author should be shot. Yes, I mean kill him. Yes, for writing that HD-DVD has some advantage he should be killed...preferably tortured to death.
Andy Out!
The DRM of DVD has been overcome for many years. Why are there still some that even speak of VHS.
Effectively, DVD is the most open (unofficially) high quality media that we have.
Plain VHS is analog so it suffers from obvious quality degredation.
And there are no common DVHS tape drivers for a computer?
besides tape is dead. keep playing your 8 tracks if you want, I guess.
So that I can just ignore all these articles.
As another Slashdot poster said in a previous article, the media machine will make sure the buzz for the new formats will only increase... after all, if everyone's talking about them, they must be worth purchasing, right?
Well, I find this topic deeply uninteresting, and would be that much happier if I could avoid the upcoming flood of BluHD-DVDRay articles (what's this doing under games, anyway?).
And yes, this is the first and last time I'll post complaining about this - I'll ignore the next ones the old-fashioned way, by rolling my eyes and sighing. I can't be the only one who feels this way.
ClutterMe.com - easiest site creation on the Net. Just click and type.
It's Blu-ray (http://www.blu-raydisc.com/)
Nobody but the truely MUST HAVE early adopters who have too much money (and who does, anyway?) will get a HD-Player until either the war is over or players support both formats. Until then, it does not matter whether you are out first.
Imagine someone came up with a console that plays XBox360 and PS3 games (let's ignore for this moment, or forever (your preference), the legal issues around it). What console would you buy? A 360? A PS3? Or the one that plays both?
And what games would you buy? PS3 games? 360 games? Or, if you happen to have a console that does both, the version that's cheaper?
So the "edge" HDDVD has now will, in the long run, be null. As soon as the players that play both (and they WILL come) are out, what matters is which disc costs less.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
- has burner available for my PC $100 & - [HD||BluRay]shrink/decrypter/fab is available for & - [insert chinese company] makes a player for
I have no idea who will win the format war, so I will make no wild guesses on the outcome. I will, however, point out one upside to this format war.
Consumers tend to benefit when there are two major players in a given market, ferociously trying to out-compete each other. Think of the graphics acceleration wars between ATI and nVidia - they have continuously one-upped each other for the past several years, and consumers have seen huge performance increases at ever-decreasing prices. On the other hand, think of markets that lack two major players - the lack of competition leads to increasing prices with stagnating product quality. *cough* M$ *cough*
There are some things not to like about the next-gen DVD war, such as DRM restrictions. However, even though prices of HD-DVD and Blu-Ray players are high, as are prices for the new discs, the prices are probably much lower than they would be without healthy competition.
HD DVD is already selling players (I have already bought one!) and movies are starting to be available.
HD DVD does have good studio support. Read into it, you'll see that most will release to it (except perhaps Sony). There will be tons of great titles to watch regardless.
Blu-Ray's only real advantage was bigger discs - yet they can't manufacture 2 layer discs yet! Now add a "DVD compatibility layer" and you'd need 3 layers to really have 2 for high def, adn I can't manage to do that anytime soon seeing how much trouble they have already. (Not to mention that using recent codecs like H.264 defeated the whole point of Blu-Ray as the movie would fit on a plain old, regular DVD media)
Blu-Ray uses Java. HD DVD will use iHD. That's a huge difference! Blu-Ray will need some hihgly paid expert programmers, will need to license JVMs - which will most likely end up differering and having compatibility problems and what not [mobile phones anyone?] Creating even trivial stuff becomes a complex endeavour. On the other hand, iHD is simple XML based markup (somewhat like HTML), which is something most people know nowadays. It's simple, and will be standard. There's even some simpleexamples already available for you to see. So simple and elegant.
Blu-Ray is way overpriced. HD DVD players are already expensive at 500$ (might be even cheaper by xmas time), but Blu-Ray is twice that, putting it out of reach for most people (too much money for a player). Not to mention that the burnable media pricing is even worse - 60$USD for a blank Blu-Ray disc! That's enough to buy 400 blank generic DVDs at BestBuy on special (over 1.5TB worth), or a fair sized HD. And if anything will help one format willing, it'll be sales. And everybody knows sales are directly related to prices (just look how much 20$ Apex DVD players they're selling!)
Blu-Ray is sony. DRM and Rootkits. Failed proprietary formats. overpriced junk electronics (you just pay for the brand name). No thanks! I'll take M$-based stuff over it as the lesser evil(!)
I can't see the heavily delayed PS3 change the situation that much. The people who usually buy those consoles are gamers (that often don't spend too much time watching movies and rather spend their hard earned money on games instead of movie DVDs). And the PS3 will cost at least as much as a HD DVD player (recently announced at 600 euro in EU). And likely a HUGE portion of PS3 buyers don't even have a HDTV in the first place. The real High Def enthusiasts - those who DO have a HDTV and will buy movies - won't wait for that to get a player (especially seeing how Blu-Ray sucks all around). And if you want to include gaming consoles, there will be a HD DVD drive for the Xbox360 (wait for E3), and there's already like 4.5 millions of those sold.
And HD DVD has managed copy too (movies on my video server, using the touchscreen yay!).
I used to really like Blu-Ray, but it's already lost the battle. They don't have a single advantage anymore - much the inverse. Likely more PCs will ship with HD DVD drives too (except perhaps a handful of Sony VAIOs), especially seeing how MS & Intel are pushing for it.
Blu-Ray will go the way of all the Sony junk: BetaMax, MiniDisc, ATRAC, MemoryStick, UMD, etc.
Look at it this way. A lot of people will have PS3s without an HDTV. When they eventually do upgrade to HDTV they already have an HD movie player. They will play blu-ray discs on the ps3 until upgrading to a dedicated player.
Blu-Ray not only uses AACS which is the same DRM as HD-DVD but also has added proprietary managed content restrictions which Fox asked for. HD-DVD refused to add them which is why no Fox hd-dvd's are being produced and why blu-ray has been so delayed.
I've never purchased a standalone DVD player. I have always and still watch DVDs on my PS2. For one, I don't have space in my TV cabinet to stick another device. Two, my TV isn't great enough to where a more expensive standalone player would make a hill of beans. I'd rather play DVDs on my PS2 than some $20 DVD player from Wal-Mart.
Does God treat us as servants or friends? Check my homepage.
A top-notch ATI or Nvidia GPU now is like US$600. I remember they being much cheaper when Nvidia was the only king in town - or even when 3dfx ruled the game. We had nice improvements in performance and technology, but the price has gone all the way up.
Where is that guy who'd die defending what I had to say when I need him?
The UMD would be a valid comparison if the ONLY way to view blu-ray's would have been through ps3's and nothing else.
Sony is aiming for the blu-ray being much more universal and maintream. Not only will blu-ray run on the ps3 but it will also run on standard setup blu-ray machines made by sony and other companies.
The UMD's weren't supported by other portable viewing machines by Sony or any other companies.
Hmmm... Pie...
I'm going with neither format.
The switch from VHS to DVD was very similar to the switch from Tape to CD.
The switch from DVD to BluRay/HD-DVD will be the same as the switch from CD to DVDAudio... it just ain't going to happen.
Unlike Beta vs. VHS where the physical formats were quite different, with HD DVD vs. Blu-ray Disc the discs are generally the same physical size, and some consumer electronic manufacturers are already saying they'll be producing dual format players.
A better analogy here is the DVD-R vs. DVD+R format war (which, if the "war" was any indicator, the consumer ultimately wins by having the formats competing with eachother on prices). I strongly suspect we'll see a price war on software (that is, HD movies) if both sides in this take it even remotely seriously to try and win consumers over.
The only recent precedent where this didn't work out well is SACD vs. DVD-Audio, and I think that had more to do with low interest in a high-def audio format (sad but true, since I'd have loved DVD-A or SACD to succeed). OTOH, I think the interest in HD movies is significantly higher, so we'll hopefully not see that again. =)
All I know about Bush is I had a good job when Clinton was president.
As much as I consider myself a media freak, I'm still a long way from realizing the potential of the equipment I currently have. I've "pinked" the media room, tweaked the projector and am doing everything I can think of to improve my audio/video experience. About the time the dust settles in this format war I should be ready to integrate a video resolution upgrade.... Hopefully the catfight will be over, players will be sub-$100, and new media releases will be at the same price that current DVDs are.
What, me worry?
Sucks for them but true. If/when someone manages to crack all their layers of protection so people can make easy "backups" of content, that will trump all other advantages one format has over the other.
Yes, sony had a hand in those...
So of the 3 most popular formats used in home video/audio now. The only one sony didn't ahve a hand on at launch is vhs.
Hmmm... Pie...
The first standalone hd players will be from $500 to over $1000. You can get hdtv's starting at under $799. Granted these aren't big screens but still. A respectible 32inch hdtv lcd can be bought around $1000.
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Here's one:
http://www.samsclub.com/shopping/navigate.do?dest
$1500-$1700 for a new game system (if the ps3 is over 700, sony has forfeited the race), hd player, and tv. Or $1500-$2000 for just the tv and a hd player.
Hmmm... Pie...
The HD drive they will show off is apparently external... Which makes sense as adding greatly to the price of the xbox360 after launch would be really odd AND alienate those who bought it early.
Throw in the fact that sony manufactures almost all of the main chips or will soon (they are setting up to manufacture cell without ibm and the graphics chip nvidia designed if the factories aren't already up) and their own drives quite unlike microsoft who has to buy almost all parts of their machine from different vendors including the hd-dvd drive. The cost increase would be too great to justify.
I see the hd-dvd as just another failed console addon. Dev's wont' support it since it will alienate a good deal of the market. For anything to be widely used in a console it has to be part of the hardware at initial launch. Thats why xbox's network took off and the ps2's weren't used at all. More examples can be found when looking at any console (sega, nintendo, older psx ones, etc.)
Hmmm... Pie...