1 Million Wiis To Be Sold in U.S. By December

Gamasutra reports on comments by Nintendo's Reggie-Fils Aime, who is claiming the company will have sold 1 Million Wii consoles by December 1st. From the article: "Nintendo's previously stated plans called for the company to ship approximately 4 million consoles globally before the end of 2006. It is not clear whether the new figures stated by Fils-Aime are still in line with these numbers, since no estimate for Japanese or European sales were given. Sony's plans call for 1 million consoles sales in the U.S. by the end of March, 2007. When interviewed by Reuters, Fils-Aime also commented on the potential lifespan of the Wii, suggesting that a four, five or even six year lifespan was 'just about right.'"

Comments

Not to shout "this isn't news but"...

[east coast]

Is there really any question that Wii is going to sell a million units if their available? PS3 would do the same at over twice the price...

Re:Not to shout "this isn't news but"...

[DubbaJ]

That's the point. They're saying the units WILL be available (as opposed to the PS3).

Re:Not to shout "this isn't news but"...

[Fozzyuw]

I agree, however...

four, five or even six year lifespan

I can say I sure hope it's not a 4 year life span! I could live with 6, where is the decline of the systems popularity due to a new system being launched... Unless said new system is 100% backwards compatible again, like the Wii, so I could trade in my Wii and keep the games I love.

Re:Not to shout "this isn't news but"...

[blueZhift]

A million sales won't be a surprise. The fun begins when/if the Wii begins to vastly outnumber the PS3s available. Ramping up really fast will no doubt attract a lot of development that doesn't want to wait around for there to be enough PS3s. This time next year may well tell the tale of who wins this round of console wars.

Re:Not to shout "this isn't news but"...

[Anonymous Coward]

Well, I was under the impression that there were 1 million Wiis available at launch. So this is news to me.

Re:Not to shout "this isn't news but"...

[Anonymous Coward]

Yeah, we just had a giant thread with massive number of people all claiming 1 million+ launch sales for the Wii. So much for that crazy talk. Nintendo can't be anywhere near a million units sold at launch if they are a week and a half away from reaching that target.

Re:Not to shout "this isn't news but"...

[chrismcdirty]

Gamecube had about a 4 year lifespan, I'd say. I love it, but I can't think of any games worth buying that came out in this past year. Maybe someone else can enlighten me.

Re:Not to shout "this isn't news but"...

[brkello]

This does seem to be the best thing that could happen for Nintendo. When a developer see the numbers of Wii sold, they will want to develop for them. More (quality) games will mean more "must-have" titles thus encouraging more sales. I'm still in wait-and-see mode to determine how well the new controller will work (I never buy first rev consumer electronics). But this is a bright start for Nintendo.

Re:Not to shout "this isn't news but"...

[HappySqurriel]

Yeah, we just had a giant thread with massive number of people all claiming 1 million+ launch sales for the Wii. So much for that crazy talk. Nintendo can't be anywhere near a million units sold at launch if they are a week and a half away from reaching that target.

We know that Nintendo has said that they expect to sell (not Ship) 1 Million units before early December; this would mean that Nintendo has either shipped 1 Million units already or expects to meet that number soon (say, this week). Now, it's pretty safe to assume that Nintendo is being pretty conservative on their sales because they have not recieved any confirmation on how many units have been sold so far; they know that it sold well, and is in a virtual sell-out position but don't have exact numbers yet. (You virtually sell out when 90%-95% of your systems have sold so it is unaviable in most places)

Until we have confirmation (from Nintendo or NPD) there is very little that can be said about how many units were sold yesterday; all we can say is there were far more Wii sold than PS3 sold this month.

Re:Not to shout "this isn't news but"...

[Leviance]

The real question is whether little Timmy's mommy and daddy fought the crowds (and their checkbook) for a PS3, or whether they decided to kick back and enjoy the availability of the Wii.

Re:Not to shout "this isn't news but"...

[Psiven]

I think Mario Soccer, in feb, was the last one. Even Zelda on GCN won't get released this year.

Re:Not to shout "this isn't news but"...

[MemoryDragon]

Actually the semi official numbers for the wii for now are worldwide around 600.000 shipped and all sold more or less.... Quite what you can expect for a major console launch. I neither see any problem for the ps3 nor for the wii to sell the first million units, there are enough fanboys and in nintendos case they also got the parents buying a console for their kids for christmas, but 4 mio units can become a problem...

Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Anonymous Coward]

I doubt the PS3 would accomplish this (1 million in sales by December) if the units were available. There has been a lot of news out lately in regards to what a disaster the PS3 is turning out to be for Sony. Here is a listing of a few of the problems reported already:

- Poor backward compatilibity with PS1 and PS2 games (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15712585/)

- Numerous high def upscaling issues including PS3 BluRay movies not appearing in high definition properly (http://loot-ninja.com/2006/11/19/ps3-hd-scaling-i ssues-other-annoyances/)

- A very poor online system, as compared to the Xbox Live System (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/20/arts/20game.htm l)

- No high definition cables ship with the system, you are stuck with a composite cable unless you pay extra (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/20/arts/20game.htm l)

- Poor graphics on side to side game comparison tests: http://www.gamespot.com/ps3/sports/tonyhawksprojec t8/review.html?sid=6161341

- Poor framerates and "tearing" reported on multiple game titles, including Tony Hawk and Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire (http://www.gamespot.com/ps3/sim/gundamworld/revie w.html)

- Poor buggy development tools which make development very hard as compared to other current gen systems (http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=19611&he d=Atari+Founder+Likes+Xbox360%2C+Disses+PS3&sector =Industries&subsector=EntertainmentAndMedia)

- Multiple launch titles cancelled or delayed due to development issues (http://www.gamesarefun.com/news.php?newsid=7200)

With the Xbox 360 already having 7 million units sold worldwide, the Wii approximately 500,000 units, and the PS3 only having sold 200,000 units in North America and 80,000 units in Japan and none in Europe it is hard to see Sony succeeding with the PS3. The PS3 may be the largest disaster yet for Sony this year, with each PS3 losing $306 for Sony (http://www.videogamesblogger.com/2006/11/16/ps3-l oses-up-to-306-per-unit-xbox-360-profits-76-per-sa le.htm) and the PS3 having the lowest attach rate (0.98) in the industry.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[ThosLives]

with each PS3 losing $306 for Sony

You know, I doubt Sony counts this as a "loss" - they probably book it as an "investment".

Think of it like this: if I spend $1000 on stock, I didn't "lose" $1000 - I invested it, with the hopes of getting more than $1000 back at some point in the future, but my returns are not guaranteed, just as Sony's returns are not. If Sony thinks that by spending (cost - revenue) per unit now will get them (cost + returns) later through game licensing, they don't consider it a loss, but a risky investment. It's only a "loss" at the end of the product cycle if (total sales - total cost) is negative when they stop selling.

I would think that any business-savvy folks would recognize this, but apparently the media is portraying this in a very one-sided manner and getting quite a few people to bite on the misinformation (units costing more than sale price is probably a fact - but it isn't a useful fact in and of itself).

That said, I don't know if the PS3 will end up being an investment for a gain or for a loss - and neither does anyone else.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[99BottlesOfBeerInMyF]

Think of it like this: if I spend $1000 on stock, I didn't "lose" $1000 - I invested it, with the hopes of getting more than $1000 back at some point in the future, but my returns are not guaranteed, just as Sony's returns are not.

You're more or less right, but there is a difference. If you invest in stock you get something, stock. You made a purchase that may or may not increase in value. When Sony loses money selling consoles they don't have anything. They have arguable increased their potential of selling games and movies. Thus, it is more like paying for advertising than it is investing in stock. This doesn't mean that the return is less likely, only that what they have purchased is more ephemeral. It also means their expenditure may be more exploitable by individuals who happen to want just that hardware, but who don't want any games or movies.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Chaffar]

- Poor backward compatilibity with PS1 and PS2 games (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15712585/)

Because msnbc is most definitely THE source of unbiased news about the PS3. No question about that.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Apotekaren]

Too bad they will only start making money on the 6th or 7th game they sell(NEW) to the customer.
I can almost understand why Sony wanted to kill the aftermarket for used games. I said almost.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[UbuntuDupe]

there is a difference. If you invest in stock you get something, stock. You made a purchase that may or may not increase in value. When Sony loses money selling consoles they don't have anything. They have arguable increased their potential of selling games and movies.

Well, true, until you realize that the "something" that is stock, is itself just the potential of it having future value -- just like the $306 loss "investment".

IMHO, the difference is that Sony's loss-leader investment is much less likely to earn a positive return :-P

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[redragon]

Yes, it's called a loss-leader. And I don't think it's going to pay dividends.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[planetmn]

You're more or less right, but there is a difference. If you invest in stock you get something, stock. You made a purchase that may or may not increase in value. When Sony loses money selling consoles they don't have anything.

Sony bought a customer.

-dave

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[swanky street]

Kind sir, I most definitely agree with you. PS3 seems like it's set up for a heavy drop down into the shitter. As always, there will be loyal fans of the platform who will buy it out of devotion, screaming and bawling kids who just think it looks cool and will practically tear their parents' hair out to get it, and those who just seem to have too much money and want to "try it out." Such will be the market for this new system. Regretfully, the PS3 seems to be taking the same path downhill that the Dreamcast laid out years ago. Let's cross our fingers and hope for the best, like a severe drop in the system's price :P

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[planetmn]

Because msnbc is most definitely THE source of unbiased news about the PS3. No question about that.

Do you have any evidence of bias? Just because there is a potential conflict of interest doesn't mean that it is acted upon.

-dave

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[99BottlesOfBeerInMyF]

Well, true, until you realize that the "something" that is stock, is itself just the potential of it having future value -- just like the $306 loss "investment".

Stock is not just the potential of something it is part ownership of a company. While a corporation may be a nebulous thing they do have real assets and cash and debts. So buying stock is a lot like buying gold or some other commodity. The value may go up or down or neither, but it is something purchased. This is how it is different from spending money on marketing, which is designed to persuade, but which does not actually buy anything other than potential.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[99BottlesOfBeerInMyF]

Sony bought a customer.

That is one way of looking at it, but in my mind a customer is someone who I'm profiting from, not who is profiting from me. I don't consider charging someone less than I paid for something to make them a customer (lot's or room for disagreement here). When they buy games which provide me a profit, they are a customer, but that is only one possibility when they buy the console. Maybe they're just going to pull the blu-ray drive out and put it in something else.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Total_Wimp]

I doubt the PS3 would accomplish this (1 million in sales by December) if the units were available.

Funny, you gave a lot of URLs for articles that say various negative things about the PS3, but not a single article to bolster your main point, that you believe they would have trouble with sales. On the other hand, Sony had 400k units go out the door in minutes on launch day (Please show me figures if you believe it's lower, because everything I read shows the higher number), with lots of frustrated people paying big bucks on eBay because of very high demand.

I had thought that the Wii was going to be 4 million units strong yesterday. I was impressed that they sold out that many units. As time goes on today, I find out that the true number was much lower. The leisurly sell-out of 500k units actually looks kind of bad for Nintendo in the demand are. Based on the launch day alone, it looks like there was much stonger demand for the PS3.

Once again, say all you want about how bad you think the PS3 is and how great the Wii. you may be wrong and you may be right. But don't try to tell me the Wii is more popular at lauch. Unless you got some cool numbers the rest of us have never seen, it's just fantasy talk. Even if you do have the numbers, you'd be hard pressed to tell me week long lines compare to breezing into the store and haveing no problem getting your box, even though the numbers were closer than everyone thought.

TW

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[UbuntuDupe]

That's a good point, and I wish fewer people would neglect the "ownership value" (e.g., including voting rights) that come with stock when talking about it's value. Still, I wish you wouldn't keep describing stock ownership as "having something", when the difference you were actually trying to highlight was that buying stock gives you ownership rights, while Sony's "investment" gives it no similar right. However, it can still "sell" what it "bought": Sony could sell to someone else the stream of software license revenues that result from such a loss leader, although that would be impractical due to the difficulties in differentiating sales that would vs. would not accrue from selling at a loss.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Anonymous Coward]

Wow, looks like we've got the Xbox360 version of the Sony Troll. The PS3 is out three days and now the 360 Troll is claiming numbers about the attach rate - not exactly a good sample size there...

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[twistedsymphony]

I think the GP's point is that you can buy stock, and if you need/want you can resell it and get your money back give or take what has changed. The Money Sony "spent" on console losses cannot be re-sold, similar to advertising you can't un-advertise something.

You also have to consider that it takes quite a hefty amount of game and accessory sales to make that $300+ back. Licensing for 3rd party titles is about $8 a pop, and Sony has arguably the weakest 1st party support out of the three major players so most of their games sales will be for 3rd party games. Even if you consider accessory markup around the 40-60% area you can only sell so many controllers and AV cables before people don't need to buy any more. Blu-Ray movie licensing is probably nothing compared to that of games. They're probably banking on PS3's helping move the format and thus the players that they can make money on. Unlike Microsoft they don't have an online service that brings in money, they also don't have memory cards to bring in money, or a network adapter accessory, etc.

Thinking about it further this money spend really is more like advertising then anything else. They're just doing what they can to get the console out there, to start the word of mouth and get people interested and excited about it so that when there are more games available and the consoles are easier to track down, and Sony's losses per unit aren't as high, they'll sell more of them. It also boosts word of mouth and desire for the Blu-Ray movies which in turn boost sales of the Blu-Ray players that they can make money on. It almost works to their advantage to have so few units out in the wild because it buys them time to reduce the cost of manufacturing, drives up demand from the short supply and the console is still out there for people as a tangible object.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[RingDev]

I'm curious as to the odds on that investment. I have never owned a console in my life (I'm a PC gamer), but I've lived with a few stoners over the years.

Those guys had pretty much every console that came out. But I don't think they had more than 5-10 games for any of them. I don't know if they are representive of the average consumer, but if they are, Sony would have to expect a $30+ profit per game sold. That seems a bit out of line considering that most of these games will sell between $45-$65. Does anyone have better numbers or knowledge on the subjet?

-Rick

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[brkello]

With the Xbox 360 already having 7 million units sold worldwide, the Wii approximately 500,000 units, and the PS3 only having sold 200,000 units in North America and 80,000 units in Japan and none in Europe it is hard to see Sony succeeding with the PS3.

Did you hack Zonk's computer and steal all his bookmarks?

Seriously though, your statement is jumping the gun here. And mostly comes off as fanboy garbage. Yeah, Sony hasn't sold as many units but it has sold out all of the units it has produced. Ultimately (or obviously), it is the (exclusive) games that matter. It will be a bit of time before the big games hit the PS3. If a release of FFXIII is a flop, then I think you can admit a Sony defeat.

Most of your complaints are things that can be improved with time. All of the issues are mostly overstated by fanboys of other consoles. From all the opinions I have read from unbiased sources (like GI), they seem to be fairly impressed with the system. But it really just comes down to exclusives.

I would like to commend you. I am pretty sure this is a troll/flamebait due to your last comment, but you did link your sources!

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[freeweed]

So they'll make it up on volume?

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Pluvius]

One thing that pops to mind is the fact that Microsoft has been far, far worse about keeping its promises of backwards compatibility than Sony has been thus far. That fact is mentioned nowhere in the article. Of course, the article is not an editorial and thus wouldn't be expected to mention such a thing, but it does reveal the biases of the AC who linked it.

Rob

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Meagermanx]

Microsoft has proven, time and again, that it is out for your best interests.
Why would you even question them?

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[planetmn]

Just look at the whole razor argument. Sell the razor cheap, make the money on the cartridges. Same with consumer printers. The printers are cheap, the ink is expensive. Now, I wouldn't call a $600 video game console cheap (I'm still waiting for used Gamecubes to come down in price), but it's the same theory.

-dave

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[planetmn]

As I posted above in reply to somebody else, it could just be the whole "razor" theory where you sell the razor for cheap, and make your money (hopefully) on the blades. Same has been done in the Inkjet market where the printers are cheap, and they hope to make the profits on ink. I don't know if that is what Sony is doing, but it's possible.

-dave

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[99BottlesOfBeerInMyF]

Just look at the whole razor argument.

I understand what they're doing and it is a reasonable business model. The point I was making, however, is that selling a loss leader is not the same as buying stock, but rather is more like paying for advertising because all you're buying is the potential of customers, not a real asset.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Anonymous Coward]

As I don't own any Sony products and only conceive of buying a PS3 in a year or more (mostly to play the best PS2 games I've missed), I'm no fanboi. But most of what you claim is pretty irrelevant in the broader scheme and in no way determinative, in whole or in part, of Sony failing with the PS3.

"- Poor backward compatilibity with PS1 and PS2 games"

Sony has said various glitches affect about 200 games out of a library of 4000. You can bet the major and popular games are error free. The problem can also probably be solved with a future patch. As a result, I don't see a lot of consumers worrying about this, especially since many of them already have a PS2 handy.

"- Numerous high def upscaling issues including PS3 BluRay movies not appearing in high definition properly"

I believe this only effects certain older TVs and that there are work arounds in those cases.

"- A very poor online system, as compared to the Xbox Live System"

Just like XBox Live or Nintendo's service, Sony's online service is certain to see great improvement over time. The real test for Sony's success will be next Christmas, by which time I'd expect their online service to be pretty good.

"- No high definition cables ship with the system, you are stuck with a composite cable unless you pay extra"

A deal breaker for anyone, especially those have already demonstrated they are willing to pay a little extra for an expensive and pretty TV? I doubt it.

"- Poor graphics on side to side game comparison tests"

If anywhere, you might have a point with this one. Sony is going to have to pull some hot shit out of their arse to justify the cost of the machine. I think escalating the "tech superiority wars" is ultimately bad for gamers and the console market (as does Nintendo, obviously), but that market is also changing. Its no longer about the "console" as a game machine. Soon the consoles will be ubiquitous digital appliances that people freely buy in lieu of a PC. Linux on PS3 and the News/WEather content on the Nintendo Channels merely foreshadows this.

"- Poor framerates and "tearing" reported on multiple game titles, including Tony Hawk and Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire"

While definitely unimpressive for a machine that is supposed to be uber powerful, any console gamer is familiar with the gradual improvement in software quality as developers become more accustomed to the hardware. Perhaps this is less true now than when 3D gaming technology itself was a new paradigm, but I think most still accept it.

"- Poor buggy development tools which make development very hard as compared to other current gen systems"

Correct me if i am wrong but I think Sony has more third-party developers signed than either MS or Nintendo. If you build it, they will come. And again, continued developer support will really only start to take a hit next Christmas if big sales of the console fail to materialize.

"- Multiple launch titles cancelled or delayed due to development issues"

Thats nothing new and certainly not particular to Sony, even as compared to the Wii.

The funny thing is, you didn't raise what I think is the biggest hurdle that Sony has to overcome: the fact that many people are still plenty happy with their PS2 and that the PS3 doesn't offer them any particularly radical reason to upgrade or as an alternative to buying into a second platform.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Hassman]

You do realize that the article linked is a Reuters article. Reuters has nothing to do with MSNBC...kinda like the AP. It just happens to be on MSNBC, which by the way is more NBC than MS.

Say it with me... Think, then post. THINK, then post. I know you can do it.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm surprised that crap like this is getting modded up on Slashdot. Almost every point you made is due to your lack of understanding layered with complete bias.

The "poor backwards compatibility" that you claim happens in about 200 games out of a library of thousands of PS1 and PS2 games. Calling it "poor" is absurd, especially when one considers Xbox360's backwards compatibility.

The "numerous" upscaling issue occurs on older HDTVs.

Which other console ships with a HD cable?

Given the specs, poor graphics and framerate is NOT the result of Sony's hardware. Do you blame the numerous Windows bugs and security problems on hardware, too?

The comment about Sony not being able to sell 1 million units is, to put it bluntly, stupid.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[ThosLives]

I agree that buying stock is not the same as selling a console (at a loss). However, both are valid investements; if you consider selling a loss-leader as "advertisement" then there's no problem; most companies do indeed count advertising as an investment. Also, you don't have to invest in "tangible goods" to be an investment - education also comes to mind as an "intangible" investment...

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[DrXym]

- Poor backward compatilibity with PS1 and PS2 games (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15712585/)

A couple of hundred titles with mostly audio problems out of 8000. How many XBox titles run on the XBox 360? How many Gamecube titles run flawlessly on the Wii? Is there a compatibility database for the Wii?

Numerous high def upscaling issues including PS3 BluRay movies not appearing in high definition properly (http://loot-ninja.com/2006/11/19/ps3-hd-scaling-i ssues-other-annoyances/)

By which you mean problems with extremely old HDTVs supporting 1080i (not even 720p) being treated as 480p (well duh) and an assortment of minor issues that could be corrected by a firmware update. Does the Wii upscale anything? Do existing XBox 360 games upscale to 1080p?

A very poor online system, as compared to the Xbox Live System (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/20/arts/20game.htm l)

Online system is fine and more importantly free.

- No high definition cables ship with the system, you are stuck with a composite cable unless you pay extra (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/20/arts/20game.htm l)

So does the Wii ship with component cables? No it doesn't. Does the XBox 360 ship with component cables? Only in the premium box. Does either the Wii or XBox support HDMI? No they don't. How much would it cost to buy an HDMI cable for a PS3? $6 if buy you online.

Poor graphics on side to side game comparison tests: http://www.gamespot.com/ps3/sports/tonyhawksprojec t8/review.html?sid=6161341

3 words. Blame the developers. I expect Tony Hawk's Project 8 developers just ported the 360 code base ensuring those 6 SPUs spend their time twiddling their thumbs rather than doing much useful. See also Call of Duty 3, Madden etc. Does that mean the console is incapable of more doing more? No it doesn't.

- Poor framerates and "tearing" reported on multiple game titles, including Tony Hawk and Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire (http://www.gamespot.com/ps3/sim/gundamworld/revie w.html)

3 words. Blame the developers. Resistance doesn't tear and has a hell of a lot more going on on screen (and offscreen) than either of those other games. Same with Ridge Racer 7 which runs 60fps at 1080p.

- Poor buggy development tools which make development very hard as compared to other current gen systems (http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=19611&he d=Atari+Founder+Likes+Xbox360%2C+Disses+PS3&sector =Industries&subsector=EntertainmentAndMedia)

Nolan Bushnell's opinion and hearsay, nothing more. And considering that Nolan Bushnell is not a developer and barely involved in the video game industry at all these days it would be interesting to know if he has even clapped eyes on a PS3 SDK let alone used one.

Multiple launch titles cancelled or delayed due to development issues (http://www.gamesarefun.com/news.php?newsid=7200)

Three are delayed by a few months (of which two are multi-console launches) and one is a cancellation. With no reasons specified for any of these yet you blame development issues. But I can think of a more likely reason that EA Sport's NBA Live 07 was canceled - because there are already two NBA games on the PS3 already and both with far more favourable reviews than NBA Live 07 got on the 360.

With the Xbox 360 already having 7 million units sold worldwide,

Wasn't it meant to be something like 10 million by now? Didn't they revise it to be year end? Do you think they stand a chance of making that target?

Wii approximately 500,000 units, and the PS3 only having sold 200,000 units in North America and 80,000 units and none in Europe it is hard to see Sony succeeding with the PS3

How can you claim approximately for the Wii and emphatically state figure

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[norminator]

"- Numerous high def upscaling issues including PS3 BluRay movies not appearing in high definition properly"

I believe this only effects certain older TVs and that there are work arounds in those cases.

Actually, you're thinking of the problem where the games scale down to 480p instead of 1080i. This one is about Blu-Ray movies... The PS3 won't scale Blu-Ray movies down to 720p, and apparently (according to the linked article) the 1080i looks bad, so if you don't have a 1080p display, the movies scale back to 1080i or 480p... 1080p is much less common than 720p, so this affects everyone almost anyone who bought their displays over a year ago, and most people who have bought a display within the last year. The link I posted is to a page that was on Digg... I don't know how accurate it is, but it is a rumored problem, and if it is true, it's serious, and affects most of the HDTV owners out there.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Garse Janacek]

It looks like you're using Sony's worldwide launch numbers, but Nintendo's (completely speculated) U.S. launch numbers. Why?

"Everything you read" says Sony shipped 400,000 -- okay, though there are lots of rumors to the contrary I don't know of documented evidence otherwise -- the main documentation seems to say that there are no verified numbers... but, like many reporters you seem to accept Sony's advance numbers by default (despite widespread reports that shipments were short). On the other hand, no definite numbers are known for Nintendo yet, so you... reject Nintendo's numbers and go with lower numbers you made up. Without even the short shipments rumors as in the PS3 case. Why? Are you aware of even one single store that had fewer than twice as many Wiis as PS3s? Most of the margins seem to be well above that, though of course the dust has not settled yet.

I had thought that the Wii was going to be 4 million units strong yesterday.

Why did you think this? Nintendo never said this. Nintendo said 4 million by the end of the year. It's unreasonable to be disappointed in Nintendo because you misread the press releases.

Based on the launch day alone, it looks like there was much stonger demand for the PS3.

You made up your numbers backing this up, and I'm unclear how you define yesterday as "leisurely"... fewer people shot at/robbed? Okay, I'll give you that, but it seems like most stores were still sold out pretty early in the morning, if not right at opening. If it took longer for the sellout to happen than for the PS3, it seems mostly because there were more units available, and more stores with significant numbers of units, so tracking all of them down took longer. Also, people weren't as worried about shortages, and could afford to be less crazy about getting one.

In any case, as basic econ tells us, in situations of inelastic demand (the hardcore fans), "shorter supply" can have effects that look very similar to "stronger demand," and it's very unclear why you're claiming the latter with no real evidence...

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[clgoh]

The difference is that with a razor or a printer, you must keep on buying blades or ink to use the product.

You can use a console forever with only 1 game...

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[GreyyGuy]

Is it that soon? I thought they made around $10 per game for licensing. Maybe $20 with the new $10 bump in game prices, but still- to make up $240-300, that is selling 12-15 games before they make a profit.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[planetmn]

Yes, but how many people are going to spend $600 on a console to only use on one game?

Slashdot loves to ridicule the decisions of a lot of companies, yet these companies keep earning profits, go figure.

-dave

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[thatguywhoiam]

you forgot: extremely annoying fanboys who can't help but turn it in a big tribal-identity pissing contest.

here's a hint: when you care about what each company makes on each console, you are a fanboy. WHO FUCKING CARES how they make money, thats their problem.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Control Group]

By which you mean problems with extremely old HDTVs supporting 1080i (not even 720p) being treated as 480p (well duh) and an assortment of minor issues that could be corrected by a firmware update. Does the Wii upscale anything? Do existing XBox 360 games upscale to 1080p?

If, by "extremely old," you mean "around 3 years old," then sure. But that isn't really the issue; every other HD outputting device I know of can up/downscale its signal to whatever you tell it to. Why must the PS3 be different? And yes, the 360 does upscale to 1080p.

Online system is fine and more importantly free

The PS2's online system was also free, does that mean it was comparable to Live? Moreover, the console's only been released (if you can call these quantities a release) for four days. I think we've yet to see how the online system fares. What I've read so far indicates that it leaves something to be desired (such as no background downloading, for example).

3 words. Blame the developers.

Fair enough, but at the end of the day, does it really matter who's to blame when the games you paid $60+ for on the console you paid $580+ for don't look good?

Wasn't it meant to be something like 10 million by now?

Yes, it was. Still, million is a hell of a lot more than even 400,000 - and that's if you even begin to believe that Sony actually shipped that many.

Your second point is equally as absurd. Nobody buys a $600 system and only 1 game to go with it ever.

Except for people who buy the system solely to resell it. But yes, those systems will end up in the hands of a gamer eventually, who will (presumably) buy more than one game for it. But when we're talking about launch numbers, the attach rate at launch is significant.

All that being said, I don't think we've anywhere near enough information to call the PS3 a "disaster" yet. I might be willing to call the launch itself a far cry from ideal, but we won't know if the PS3 is a disaster until it really launches - which is looking like circa March '07.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Knuckles]

As I posted above in reply to somebody else, it could just be the whole "razor" theory where you sell the razor for cheap, and make your money (hopefully) on the blades

I totally don't get how one could apply the razor concept to the PS3. The razor concept depend on the idea that the razor is cheap so that people buy it without thinking, and then buy the relatively expensive blades over time without noticing since in absolute terms the blades still don't cost very much and the purchases are spread out over time.

Care to explain to me how this has anything to do with a console that costs USD 500-600 and has games that cost 50-100?

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Amouth]

"Which other console ships with a HD cable?"

humm the premium xbox 360 does..

if i pay 600$ for a damn console give me a damn cable to hook it up.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Total_Wimp]

You made up your numbers backing this up,

This is a cheap shot. I used the post I replied to for the Nintendo numbers and the reported shipped units for the Sony. 400k is what the company reported. It may be less, for example some people have claimed 200k, but if I used those numbers I really would be making them up.

I don't have specific knowledge of either number, so the best I can do is rehash what's been reported to me. Of the Nintendo numbers I do know this; they're smaller than 1 million. That's what the rep said in TFA. If that's 500k or 999K, I couldn't tell you, but if a Nintendo fan-boy says it's 500K, I'm more than willing you use his numbers.

You're right about the economics of the situation, a small, inelastic demand can look like a big demmand if the3 supply is even smaller. However, if the numbers I've heard reported are correct, then the "small" fanbase of PS3 supporters certainly looks more impressive than the Wii fanbase. A 100k difference in units does not explain the leisurely approach of Wii fans compared to PS3 fans. You no more know that the Wii has a large fanbase than you know the PS3 fanbase is small. If they both had small fanbases and both supplies were small, then the Wii's fans were certainly small enough to not look anything at all like huge demand.

But what if the reported numbers are wrong? What if Sony shipped 200K units and Nintendo shipped 800K. That paints a different picture, right? Then show me. Don't make up numbers, but show me some good sources (no, tiny fanboy sites do not count). At least you know my sources. You quoted the 400k yourself and I showed you the 500k. Do me better and you'll have my respect. I'd love to have something closer to real myself. But don't claim I'm making stuff up when your best response is to say some unknown other numbers might be more accurate. If your numbers are better, then show me.

TW

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[poot_rootbeer]

WHO FUCKING CARES how they make money, thats their problem.

If they don't make money on the console, then the console dies prematurely, and your return on investment suffers. Just ask the hundreds of thousands of gamers who bought a Dreamcast in 1999 and 2000, only to watch support for the console dry up in 2001 and 2002 as Sega's losses compounded.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Rallion]

This is more of an anecdote than a source, but I can state with certainty that the Target I work at got 8 PS3's in, as opposed to 51 Wii's. Both lines were full by midnight on launch day. All stores in my area (I've been given approximate numbers for a Walmart and 4 EBGameStops) have very similar ratios and reports. That may or may not be representative, but at least it's hard numbers.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[UbuntuDupe]

I don't.

But I will add this: those numbers are what is required to make up manufacturing costs. That doesn't say anything about pre-manufacturing R&D or marketing, which are not amortized across all consoles in those calculations.

So let's make a conservative estimate: $30 licensing revenue for Sony per game sold. Then you have to sell, on average, 8-10 games per console, NEW. And if you manage that feat, you've still lost the full R&D and marketing costs. And the fewer consoles they sell, the more each would have to buy to cover his "share" of those costs.

I don't see how it can happen, but at the same time, I can't convince myself that they didn't do this calculation in advance.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[ravenshrike]

Poor? Only poor when you don't consider that all of those games were not built using the sony hardware programming guidelines. Every game that WAS programmed thusly, works perfectly well with the PS3.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[dank zappingly]

You doubt that the PS3 would sell out 1 million consoles if they were available? Have you noticed how much they are selling for on ebay? Seems to suggest that demand is far higher than supply maybe. So let's say that the PS3 has sold 300k systems so far. I haven't seen an estimate for the amount sold in North America yet, but that seems reasonable. Now we know that demand is way higher than that because they're selling online for more than the retail price. We're also not talking about demand in Europe and elsewhere because Sony put the kibosh on grey market exporters. I think that any reasonable person would admit that of the 100 million people worldwide who bought the PS2, greater than 1% will be interested in buying the PS3. I don't know if you've been on the internets lately, but it seems like there are more than a million PS3 fanboys just trying to deface the 360 wikipedia entry. So you're saying the free online is "poor" in comparison to the 360? I don't know if I would personally complain about free online play, but to each his own. I would argue that the online PS3 is pretty nice for a free network at launch. Well while we're making comarisons the 360 has poor backwards compatibility compared to the PS3, which has problems with about 2% of the 8000 games in the back catalog. Does the 360 have any problems with High Definition? Last I heard it didn't support HDMI cables and so if your television didn't accept 1080P from components, you don't get true HD. I've read reports of poor graphics, but I believe some sites have noticed that the PS3's graphics were sharper. I think alot of these problems are based on rush jobs by developers, and not based on the strength of the hardware. Say what you will about the launch, it could have gone better, it could have gone worse, but for all the complaining about the system, people are still paying a fortune for it on ebay. The PS3 will have outsold the 360 in Japan by the end of the year(although that's not saying too much). I'll start listening to claims of disaster once people aren't scalping them on the internet for a fortune and they are gathering dust on the store shelves, but right now it is sort of looking more like a success than a failure.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[WillAffleckUW]

I totally don't get how one could apply the razor concept to the PS3. The razor concept depend on the idea that the razor is cheap so that people buy it without thinking, and then buy the relatively expensive blades over time without noticing since in absolute terms the blades still don't cost very much and the purchases are spread out over time.

I can help. Based on the articles in Fortune, it appears Sony intends to make us pay lots of money for DRM-enhanced Music and Movies that we will buy in the Blu-Ray format. Their selling point will be that they have extra video and even mini-game addons for those.

I think it's a very long shot. I remember when I got rid of my BMG Music subscription when I found out they sold unrippable CDs. I paid for the music, I'll be darned if I'll pay just to store it on my (cheap) MP3 player.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[NoodleSlayer]

What are you talking about?

Microsoft wouldn't even talk about Backwards Compatibility on the Xbox 360 until the console was just months away from launch, and even then they said that it would only be the top games, (Halo, Halo 2, Knights of the Old Republic, Fable, etc.) which they did deliver on.

They did say that their goal was to get every game working but they never said it would (or when it would) happen--- unlike Sony who has taunted Microsoft repeatedly over backwards compatibility. It's hubris and hypocrisy at its finest.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[seebs]

Twice as many?

I have heard of no store with more than ten PS3s; most of the ones around here got two or three.

The Target I waited at had 39; the nearest other one had 60. Every WalMart in the area had 20 or more. Every EB and GameStop had however many they did preorders for. Best Buy was runninga round 60 a store. One local Target had 210.

Every last one I have heard of was sold out by about 11AM on Sunday.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Anonymous Coward]

It seems from all the articles I've been reading that there's been a MINIMUM of 3 Wiis for each PS3 that was sold in each store. And I was skiving off work like a pro today reading dozens of forums.

So, if Sony had 400k PS3s in the US for the launch day, there were 1.2m Wiis.

However even Sony said they were "tens of thousands" short. Let's guess they had 320k PS3s. That would mean 960k Wiis, at least.

Basic facts don't like. I have not yet read of a single instance of a store having LESS that 3x the number of Wiis than PS3s shipped to them.

Stick your Sony fanboi head in the sand all you like. The truth is out there.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[timster]

PS3 ebay prices have dropped to around $1000, which isn't exactly spectacular for a console that launched only a few days ago in extremely limited numbers.

1080p is not required for "true HD" and only games with relatively simplistic graphics will ever use it, as the PS3 isn't powerful enough to render complex graphics with lots of effects in 1080p. Of course, only a small proportion of people have 1080p televisions anyway.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Pluvius]

OK, so let's say that Microsoft never promised complete backwards compatibility with the XBox. (Never mind the fact that "They did say that their goal was to get every game working" suggests that they made something very close to a promise.) How does that make the AC's bias against the PS3 any more valid? While the PS3 is compatible with thousands upon thousands of PSX and PS2 games, only having issues with a small fraction of them, the XBox 360 is only compatible with a few hundred XBox games (and even then only if it has a hard drive) and is totally incapable of playing the other thousand. The PS3 is the clear winner here, and Sony would only be hypocritical if it wasn't.

BTW, Phil Harrison said that the PS3 would not be fully compatible with games that did not follow the PS2's Technical Requirements Criteria without patching, and what we've learned since then has borne that out. I haven't found a quote where Sony said that there would be 100% backwards compatibility at launch. I'd say it won't take too long to get there, though, considering how only a year ago there were fears that the PS3 would only be compatible with half of the PS2 library due to the TRC problem. (There might be a couple of games that won't work with the PS3 no matter what, but hey, you can say the same thing about the PS2. Hell, the slim-line PS2 doesn't even play some PS2 games right.)

Rob

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Garse Janacek]

You jumped on the part of my comment questioning your source, but missed a lot of the more important parts.

To repeat my question, have you heard of any store that had fewer than twice as many Wiis as PS3s? "Twice as many" is a very conservative estimate, deliberately so, like other posters have said the more common numbers are 3x and up -- I'm just asking if you know of, or have even heard anyone mention, a single store like that.

I haven't, anyway. And given that, your claim of 400k versus 500k is pretty unlikely.

400k isn't really what Sony reported, as you say, it's what they said they would be shipping beforehand. No one knows how many have shipped, except that a lot of people are saying it was fewer than expected.

Then show me. Don't make up numbers, but show me some good sources (no, tiny fanboy sites do not count)

A lot of my previous post hinged on the fact that there are no numbers yet. It's too early, we have no reliable counts, there are no "good sources," only rumor and relative comparison -- by which, as above, the PS3 isn't looking so great in volume shipped at launch. But, let's see if we can reason a little more.

Accepting for the moment Nintendo's claim that 1 million will be sold in the U.S. by December, which would be less than 2 weeks after launch: it seems very unlikely to me that, say, they shipped 500k (your suggestion, taken from an earlier poster who also didn't know real numbers), and either held back another 500k or can manufacture and ship them within a week and a half. The initial launch was probably the majority of their existing stock, and they're churning them out as fast as they can. Even at the generous estimate of 150k units launched and shipped per week, that suggests about 750-800k at launch, possibly more, for them to make the 1 million target. As for the PS3, starting from 400k, subtract a (lenient) 50k for the many rumored shortages in their final shipments, a 10% Canada penalty since those are North American numbers, not U.S. as with the Wii, and we're down to 315k versus 750k for the U.S. launch.

Now, as I said, those aren't real numbers because there are none yet, but I think it's a lot closer than your estimates, and it's at least closer to the store reports of relative quantities (though if we believe store margins were more like 3-1, which isn't outside the realm of possibility, things get even worse -- but I'm trying to do a conservative count).

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Psiven]

Thats a gre point. I'm a huge ninty fan and am intrigued by the ps3, but honestly I think I might just go score a pstwo and ffxx-whatever and be done with it until 2008.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[MBGMorden]

Ain't that the truth. I bought the Dreamcast on launch day (should have known there was a problem when I strolled into the store at 3:30pm and just picked one up off the shelf). Wonderful system that I found to be just as enjoyable as any of my others (I also have PS2, GC, and Xbox), but it never really reached it's potential.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Total_Wimp]

Some (alot?) of your assumptions make sense. I was just pissed at the assertion that I made stuff up, especially when it was fairly obvious what I was working with.

I hate anecdotal evidence, but it might actually be better in some limited way in this case. Why? Because wild guesses about shipped numbers are almost certainly going to be worse, and if a proper reatio can be guessed, then it doesn't really matter what the total numbers were. I don't know how accurate the 1-2 or better ratios are, but even if you accept 1-3 (I'm not quite ready to accepte 1-5) then all it really proves is that Nintendo has enough fans to buy up the stock. It doesn't say much about how Wii sales will hold up (baring bad experiences, I'd expect "well") and it certainly doesn't say anything at all about the PS3 fanbase. It just says that their were enough buyers for stock on hand.

The evidence does not show at all, for example, that Sony wouldn't have been able to sell just as many units had they been available. Any assertions that Sony couldn't sell a million PS3s is wild speculation. Hell, it's downright guessing. I don't begrudge Wii fans their current success, but saying there's low demand for the PS3 at this point is silly.

TW

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[wizrd_nml]

with each PS3 losing $306 for Sony

How much money does Sony make out of each game sold? $10? $15? To break even they must be assuming that each owner of a PS3 will buy between 20 and 30 games. Is this reasonable? I personally owned a PS2 for 3 years and bought only about 10 games. Does anyone have any stats on this?

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[MemoryDragon]

Besides that Sony has outpriced the PS3 simply in Europe with a targeted price of 700 euros (that is 1000 dollars) people simply wont buy it. But who cares, they missed the christmas season over here already, so the spending budget is lost until december 2007. (First PS3s in March, which is dead season, there the summer money goes towards vacation, so 1000 dollars spending budget again is there in december) Good luck Sony over here in Europe, you will need it!

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[DrXym]

Point taken with the upscaling, and I will double check the 360's abilities, but my understanding was that it couldn't upscale to 1080p. As for old TVs, while I think the PS3 should support them, they really are non-standard to support 1080i only. In Europe TVs tagged as HD Ready have to cope with 720p and 1080i and scale between either mode for themselves.

As for networking, I think it's a bit disingenuous to compare the PS3's networking to the PS2. The PS3 offers live chat (text, audio & video) for nothing, a web browser for nothing, downloadable content such as demos for nothing, buddy lists for nothing, matchmaking for nothing, multiplayer games hosting for nothing (e.g. Resistance). Sure it's a little rough around the edges (e.g. some games are using their own buddy lists, store downloads occur in the foreground and so on) but I really see nothing that can't be incrementally improved. And since its free it really isn't that bad.

On the other points, the main reason for my rebuttal was simply because some AC decided to link to a bunch of negative opinion pieces even though in most cases the stories were simply wrong, fud or applied equally to other consoles.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Anonymous Coward]

i bought an xbox and still havent bought a game for it yet. i'd love to say it was out of malice for MS, but honestly i was too poor to buy games so i rented them, then chips became available so i started pirating

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[macshome]

Just ask the hundreds of thousands of gamers who bought a Dreamcast in 1999 and 2000

Heh, Sega sold 1 million units inside 90 days on the market. I think worldwide sales ended up around 5 million at the end...

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[Knuckles]

I can help. Based on the articles in Fortune, it appears Sony intends to make us pay lots of money for DRM-enhanced Music and Movies that we will buy in the Blu-Ray format. Their selling point will be that they have extra video and even mini-game addons for those.

Thanks, but I know that. But this is more along a business for premium brands (I'm sure there is a buzzword for it). "Sell expensive (but still sold at a loss) and exclusive console to consumers with not-so-common HD TVs and make up loss with expensive and exclusive bluray movies." This still has nothing to do with the razor model as I outlined it above.

Re:Yes but the PS3 is to looking like a disaster

[FictionPimp]

Lets look at local numbers in my town.

Target:
    PS3 - 5 units
    Wii - 60 units
Best Buy:
    PS3 - 12 units
    Wii - 90 units

Who had better availability?

So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[Anonymous Coward]

So much for the Nintendo fans screaming about the Wii selling 1-1.2 million units at launch. Nintendo drastically cut back the number of units just before launch.

Tear up those multi-million lead over the PS3 Nintendo fans were prematurely bragging about. Sony is saying they will have a similar amount by mid-December too.

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[Anonymous Coward]

Yeah no - In my home town there were 3 stores with well over 70 people lined up at each store.
All the EB stores had around 20-40 people lined up too. I am sure Nintendo has sold over a million units already!

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[killmenow]

Parent post brought to you by Sony Employee #3193.

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[Anonymous Coward]

"Parent post brought to you by Sony Employee #3193."

Nope. OP brought to you by REALITY. Everyone be cool and don't go back and read all the wild claims Nintendo fanboys made about the Wii launch numbers in the previous Wii story posted this morning. There are a lot of embarrassed Wii fanboys right now...

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[Anonymous Coward]

Why am I reminded of this?

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[Anonymous Coward]

If you read the article, they say that Sony will have half as many as well. So who exactly is supposed to be laughing here?

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[Anonymous Coward]

Laughing? A few months ago people were claiming Nintendo would have a many millions of unit lead over Sony by the end of 2006. Now that number is down to maybe a million at the end of 2006 assuming both consoles hit their ship numbers. And PS3 production is supposedly ramping up quickly to where they can put out something like a million a month, whereas Nintendo already is at their peak capacity. So as long as sales are supply constrained, Sony will start to rapidly catch up as production moves to full capacity.

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[HappySqurriel]

Did he actually tell us how many units were shipped? Because I didn't see that anywhere ... We did (however) hear that they intended to sell 1 Million by early December; if they had launched with more than 1 Million units already this could be trivially true. The fact is that there are reports of the Wii selling out and I have yet to hear of a store that had more PS3s than Wiis (in fact I have yet to hear of a store that had less than twice as many Wii units as PS3 units).

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[Anonymous Coward]

RTFsummary. 1 million units IN THE U.S. Probably a lot more worldwide, especially in Japan.

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[Anonymous Coward]

And PS3 production is supposedly ramping up quickly to where they can put out something like a million a month, whereas Nintendo already is at their peak capacity.

The PS3 unit predictions keep dropping. First it was going to be four million by the end of the year, then 2 million, now just 1 million. The analysts are predicting a mere 750,000 units by the end of the year. Nintendo has already shipped more units than the PS3 (though we don't know how many), and has now cut their estimates to 2 million by the end of the year.

The point is, the situation is looking glum for both of them. The real question is, are the two of them actually going to meet their targets for Christmas? Because if they don't, they'll miss their biggest opportunity to distribute their consoles. If history is any indicator, it won't matter in January that their production is ramped up. Demand *will* fall. They both may have to wait until next Christmas to get another big shot at the market.

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[Anonymous Coward]

There are a lot of embarrassed Wii fanboys right now...

Well, that beats injured, robbed or dead Sony fanboys.

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[HappySqurriel]

Nintendo has already shipped more units than the PS3 (though we don't know how many), and has now cut their estimates to 2 million by the end of the year

The only numbers Nintendo has ever claimed was 4 Million units sold worldwide by the end of 2006; North America is less than half the market yet Nintendo expects North America to sell half of their anticipated Worldwide numbers, which means either Nintendo is on track or Nintendo is being optimistic.

Re:So Much For The Bogus Launch Numbers

[Rallion]

A few months ago people were claiming Nintendo would have a many millions of unit lead over Sony by the end of 2006. Now that number is down to maybe a million at the end of 2006 assuming both consoles hit their ship numbers.

A single million-console lead, yes -- in the US.

Compare to GameCube

[Pluvius]

That system sold roughly 700K in its first two weeks. Considering the fact that the Gamecube is considerably more popular than the N64 was (thus generating more brand loyalty), going up to 1M would not be an unexpected boost.

Oh, and for the record, the Dreamcast sold about 500K in its first two weeks, and that was outside of the holiday season and limited by supply. As usual, launch figures don't prove much of anything.

Rob

Re:Compare to GameCube

[ink]

The Nintendo 64 sold 32.93 million units, while the GameCube sold 21 million units (and counting, I suppose). This would imply that it wasn't as successful as the '64.

Re:Compare to GameCube

[revlayle]

Not true. The N64 sold (about 32 million) approximately 10 million more units worldwide than the GameCube ever did (about 21-22 million). Also, the N64 sold 500K units in *24 hours* (I have no data to verify if the N64 sold at least another 200K in the following two weeks, however). Yes, this info is easily on Wikipedia - other places too with a bit of research.

Re:Compare to GameCube

[Pluvius]

I said "popular," not "successful." A lot of those N64 sales came relatively soon after launch, when Nintendo was still the 500-pound gorilla in the industry. (I got an N64 myself when it came out; a stupid mistake on my part.) There's also the fact that that generation was a two-system war; the Saturn might as well not even have existed, unlike the XBox.

As for the GameCube, not only was the media a lot better (being both cheaper and more spacious), but it nabbed more big third-party exclusives, like a couple of Resident Evil games (though not RE4, unfortunately for Nintendo) and the Metal Gear Solid remake. Not a lot, but still much more impressive than the weak showing that the N64 put out.

Rob

Re:Compare to GameCube

[Anonymous Coward]

Check gamerankings.com. Out of the top 10 most critically-acclaimed games, three of them are N64 exclusives. The 64 had some very, very good games.
The the cube was more of a disappointment - Wind Waker was a bit dull, Sunshine wasn't as fun as Mario 64, Metroid was OK but somewhat overshadowed by Halo (maybe not deservedly, though I've got to say the Metroid controls were awful). Resi 4 was superb, but the PS2 version had extra content. A bit "meh" all round.

Re:Compare to GameCube

[Pluvius]

You're looking at first-party games, which totally misses the point. People who like Nintendo first-party games enjoyed both the N64 and the GameCube regardless of exactly how good those first-party games were; in other words, first-party games didn't affect the popularity of the two systems much at all. You have to look at the reception of third-party exclusives to determine how popular each system was to the community at large, and the facts are that the GameCube was far better at drawing fans of Capcom, Sega (obviously), Konami, and so forth than the N64 was.

Rob

Re:Compare to GameCube

[Anonymous Coward]

No, the 'fact' isn't that at all; you're just saying that's how it is. A lot more people bought the N64, that's a fact, not speculation, therefore it was more popular than the Gamecube. Your definition of 'popular' is pretty screwed up if you see that any other way.

Re:Compare to GameCube

[Pluvius]

What you're saying is that people who have bought a product always like it, which obviously is not true. By your logic, Enter the Matrix is one of the most popular video games of the past few years.

Rob

Re:Compare to GameCube

[edwdig]

That system sold roughly 700K in its first two weeks. Considering the fact that the Gamecube is considerably more popular than the N64 was (thus generating more brand loyalty), going up to 1M would not be an unexpected boost.

I wouldn't consider the GameCube more popular. It never had a really good run. The N64 and PS1 were pretty close in sales for the first half of the generation until developers got sick of cartridges and left in mass. From there PS1 sales really took off and the N64 dropped off. The GameCube had an ok start, picked up a little steam when Mario, Zelda, and Metroid came out, then just began a slow death.

They Get it...

[Brothernone]

So far so good. It's the day after launch and most Wii owners are still playing or asleep. I like Reggie's idea for this console and any company that thinks 5-6 years is a good console can only be good news. I think the Wii is really is a great possition to sweep the PS3 aside for sales. It's not just the supply train, but the image. So far the ps3 has had nothing but bad publicity about it's launch. It will be interesting to see if they can really provide the number their shooting for.

Re:They Get it...

[Metostopholes]

It's the day after launch and most Wii owners are still playing or asleep

... or at work, reading Wii stories on Slashdot and counting the minutes until they can go home.

*sigh*

Re:They Get it...

[Windwraith]

If I wasn't European I'd REALLY agree with you.

Re:They Get it...

[slacktheplanet]

I was at work, reading about my Wii and telling everyone at work about how awesome it is. I was the only one lucky enough to get one though.

Re:They Get it...

[ShadowsHawk]

Amen to that. And to make matters worse, my wife keeps asking me to play sports with her instead of Zelda solo.

Wrong About Sony Numbers

[RichardMarks]

Sony has stated 400k units were in the initial US launch shipment. And just a day or two ago they stated they have 600k units that are starting to be air shipped to the US at a rate of some 100k a week. The first units of the second wave of PS3s is supposed to be in stores in the next day or two.

That obviously will put the PS3 near one million in the US around the end of December.

Re:Wrong About Sony Numbers

[RichardMarks]

Put the tinfoil hat away. Those numbers come straight from Sony exec interviews over the past week.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/gaming/2006-11-16-ps3 -mania_x.htm

Let's see, Sony announces 600k more PS3s are about to be shipped to the US. eBay PS3 prices drop.

I wonder if there is some sort of connection...

Re:Wrong About Sony Numbers

[Anonymous Coward]

Even if the exec was being honest, what Sony said (from your link) was "...it will airlift up to 600,000 more units by the end of the year, though it hasn't announced where and when"

Unlike what you said in your post, there is no statement that they are airlifting these to the US, or they are shipping 100k a week here. They also say "up to" 600k. So please find us a link that supports what you are saying.

Re:Wrong About Sony Numbers

[RichardMarks]

"Us"??? Some random fanboy posting AC on Slashdot. Who cares what you believe.

Amazon and Target have already received the first restock of PS3s on Saturday and various brick and mortar stores are saying Tuesday or Wednesday is when they are receiving their next batches.

Re:Wrong About Sony Numbers

[Anonymous Coward]

I said "US" as in the United States, not "Us". There is nothing in the statement that says Sony is shipping 600k units to the United States at a rate of 100k a week like you say multiple times.
You also made another statement above about Amazon and Target getting restock. Where are the links for this information? You keep making statements that are unfounded.

A good statement is factual and founded in reality. For example I can say that the PS3 has an attach rate of 0.98 and I can follow a statement like that with a supporting link: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid= 21062

Re:Wrong About Sony Numbers

[aesiamun]

Do you have a source for these numbers? I haven't heard this.

Re:Wrong About Sony Numbers

[Guppy06]

"Sony has stated 400k units were in the initial US launch shipment."

Sony statements have a long history of being out-of-touch with reality.

Whatever the case, whether you're right or Reggie Fils-Amie is right, hard-and-fast numbers won't be available from either company before the end of the year.

Re:Wrong About Sony Numbers

[MeanderingMind]

Not exactly straight, there's no statement to the effect of the rate in which these PS3s will be received, where or when.

What he did was take the 6 weeks left in the year and assume we'd get the 600k PS3s evenly across those weeks. While possible, this isn't a stated fact.

Assuming they all come stateside and ignoring reports that were were actually less than 400k PS3s at launch:

400k units at launch + 200k units (100k/week * 2 weeks) = 600k units

That's not really close to 1 million by December 1st.

If we assume that both Nintendo and Sony meet their goals this year, the whole argument is moot anyway. Sony will have 2 million systems distributed across NA and Japan, while Nintendo will have 4 million across the world. The only reason any of this is important is the potential for Sony or Nintendo (though perhaps the former is more likely than the latter) to fall behind in production.

Re:Wrong About Sony Numbers

[stanleyfog]

Exec speak != truth. You'd be wise to learn that. You put forward the best image you can and hope what the public will see will align with what you said. I know MANY Sears Holdings stores didn't receive the console. We've got signs up in these stores that essentially say Sony overestimated what they had and failed to deliver. The above doesn't really matter though, it'll be about what the public wants. Will parents/geeks drive all around town daily hoping to get one of the 4-5 units that might come in on a truck? Will they be willing to fork over $600-800 dollars for hardware and games? Will they hand over the plastic knowing what the reviewers say? Sony has had a TON of bad publicity in about every segment of their brands this year, I can't imagine they'll honestly sell a mil come Jan. Poor PR due to low numbers + loss on hardware + poor revenue on the slim software launch = bad move. If they'd waited till after x-mas for release they'd probably made more money, gained better publicity, and shipped a greater software lineup. No one in their right mind can claim the Nov launch will provide a positive revenue number (and in no way a profit). They sure didn't make Nintendo look bad either, and MS blitzed retail with sharp displays and special prices. Ah well, thats my 2.

Re:Wrong About Sony Numbers

[Rallion]

Because Sony NEVER lies!

I don't believe they managed to hit 400k for a moment. For one thing, not a single store that I'm aware of received the promised number of units. For another, the number of Wii units available in stores was way higher -- around here, at LEAST five times higher. If we assume that they've shipped close to a million units, and that my region is representative, that implies that the real number of PS3's that exist in reality is closer to 200k.

And in regards to the 100k new units a week...I just have my doubts that they can ramp up production that fast. It's not impossible, I suppose, but they've supposedly had tons of fabrication problems so far and I doubt they're all over with.

Time will tell.

And about this: "The first units of the second wave of PS3s is supposed to be in stores in the next day or two." Who says? I know that the second-largest retail chain in the country, Target, hasn't heard a damn thing about any new shipments coming in. As far as I know (and I asked) Walmart doesn't know either.

2007 System Launch - a Spectator Sport

[Frostclaw]

It will be very interesting to sit back and watch how the PS3 and Wii fare.

The limited supply of PS3 systems and the vast reports of scalpers buying up systems for sale on eBay don't give a clear indication of the overall consumer acceptance of the product. It will take a bit yet to see how that pans out.

The Wii sales are interesting too though. I honestly did not expect that system to sell out so quickly.

I don't think the launch for either system will be indicative of their long term success. There are a few great exclusives in the works for the PS3 which will make it a must have for me once the price drops. The Wii looks like fun, so I think I may pick one up after Christmas.

Re:2007 System Launch - a Spectator Sport

[Anonymous Coward]

The Wii sales are interesting too though. I honestly did not expect that system to sell out so quickly.

Are you serious? You have the geeks on slashdot hyping it up, the hipsters love it, non-traditional gamers can appreciate it, and it's at a low enough price point that most all of them can afford it.

That adds up to a large number of people, possibly larger than the hardcore gamer market the PS3 is targeting.

Gamers

[Chayak]

You're always going to have people willing to camp out for a week (one wonders if they have a life...) to get a console that's beside the point as they are the minority. The real base of a system forms when everyone else gets a chance to own the consoles. Here the price of the PS3 is going to hurt it as Mom and Dad will be hesitant to pay or kids save up that much money for just the console when they could buy a Wii and nearly all the launch titles for the same cost.

Hmm

[gregtron]

If supplies are going to be so limited, I guess I'd better get my whompin' stick and head on down to the forming lines...

The still-unanswered question

[Control Group]

This, unfortunately, doesn't answer my most pressing question - when can we expect a restock?

As someone who elected not to stand in line Saturday night, I don't have my Wii yet, and this depresses me. I keep hearing rumors that there should be more in stores before this Friday, but they're all completely unsubstantiated.

So consider this an open letter (or at least, an open comment among dozens to a category-specific post on a blog that comprises an insignificant percentage of Nintendo's fan base) to Nintendo: when will there be more? When can I get my hot little hands on a Wii?

Re:The still-unanswered question

[Anonymous Coward]

When can I get my hot little hands on a Wii?

oh I can help you with that!

*unzips pants*

Re:The still-unanswered question

[Turn-X Alphonse]

If you think you're depressed over not owning a wii I suggest you look up the meaning of depression.

Re:The still-unanswered question

[Control Group]

I suggest you look up the meanings of "exaggeration," "poetic license," and "dramatic effect."

Re:The still-unanswered question

[Anonymous Coward]

My local Best Buy says their next Wii selling date is 26 Nov.

Re:The still-unanswered question

[G-funk]

Perhaps you should. There's a difference between "Depression" meaning "sadness, dent, or low pressure zone" and "Clinical Depression (tm)" Meaning "My life didn't turn out the way I thought it would, please drug me"

Re:The still-unanswered question

[Turken]

At my local wal-mart, they're expecting more units early this week. I got this info from one of the sales guys in electronics who was rather dissapointed that he had to work the launch instead of waiting to buy one himself, so he has both the means and motive to find out when the next batch will be coming in.

Re:The still-unanswered question

[Anonymous Coward]

If you think you're depressed over not owning a wii I suggest you look up the meaning of depression.

Tom Cruise posts on Slashdot?

No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do.

Re:The still-unanswered question

[seebs]

Target claims to be expecting them weekly, WalMart said a couple times a week.

Nintendo has made it pretty clear that they are serious about producing boxes for people, so I'm pretty optimistic that you will be able to find one soon.

Re:The still-unanswered question

[Anonymous Coward]

Wow. Too bad they don't have medication against being an ignorant douche.

I'd buy one...

[flitty]

If i could find one. Target= line clear around the building at 7:00 am when i drove by. You sony trolls are rediculous, fuzzy math and believing what every PR person at sony says to get a million units by mid december? I heard they only launched 200,000, also, i doubt they'll meet 100,000 every week, it took them 3 months to make 200,000-400,000. Even if you are right and 1 million ps3's by mid december, so? What games do you plan to play on the thing? RFoM? Enjoy.

Re:Yes but the PS3 has sucky games

[WillAffleckUW]

Additionally, all the game reviewers (justly) savaged the PS3 games - except for Resistance: Fall of Man, they are so lame as to want to make you barf.

Can't say I blame them - after sitting thru the reviews, I'd be angry at the quality of the release games for the PS3.

Not the same on the Nintendo Wii side - so far, all the games are great! Zelda - well, it's Zelda - my son and his friend were jazzed, but I never really was into that game. But it works well. They still have to master the jumping on pillars thing.

Rayman's Raving Rabbids is everyone's favorite - it's just plain FUN! Plus, those bunnies can dance! If you hate dancing, well, you might not like it, but otherwise this is the gem of release day.

Excite Truck is cool. Glad we got it.

And the bundled Wii Sports is amazing! Boxing tires you out, Golf is cool, Bowling takes a bit to get used to (hint - line up with the sensor bar), and the others are good too.

I think they'll make it

[alexwcovington]

I wasn't sure about the Wii when I was waiting in line, but after playing with one I can definitely say that Nintendo has a good shot at #2, if not #1 in North America this time around. But Nintendo has got to get the third-party support to make it happen.

Re:Not to shout, but dev costs for the Wii

[WillAffleckUW]

A million sales won't be a surprise. The fun begins when/if the Wii begins to vastly outnumber the PS3s available. Ramping up really fast will no doubt attract a lot of development that doesn't want to wait around for there to be enough PS3s.

Additionally, it's only $2000 for a dev kit for the Wii, but $20,000 for a dev kit for either the PS3 or the xBox360. I can see developing fun games in a small shop for the Wii on a lark - or even a hobby (ok, I'm not poor) - but $20K? This will probably result in a lot more ports to the Wii than you'd expect - not just because 95 percent of game developers seem to be buying Wii consoles for themselves - but also because it's a new mode of play.

I'd love to play the Lego Star Wars II version of the Wii, with my Wii-mote humming when I use it as a light saber, or pinging when I use it as a phase pistol! Plus, I can see doing force moves with the nunchuk!

Irrelevant, score me one

[botbotbot]

anyone else notice the "19 of 18 comments" link to this thread? //amy.

Re:Yes but the PS3, is it an investment?

[WillAffleckUW]

Too bad they will only start making money on the 6th or 7th game they sell(NEW) to the customer.

Actually, it's $240 loss for the 20GB version, and $306 for the 60GB version, not to mention the loss for those people converting them into Linux servers ....

At that price point, they'd have to sell 6 games for the 20GB, and 8 for the 60GB version, just to break even.

Sony might want to rethink that. Nintendo makes a profit on the console itself, plus I bought three games already, which are only $50 instead of $60 for the PS3 versions, but it's still profit city from the getgo.

Re:Bowling doesn't use the sensor bar

[Anonymous Coward]

Bowling takes a bit to get used to (hint - line up with the sensor bar)

That's a terrible hint. For the record I regularly bowl over 200 in Wii Sports' Bowling so I do know what I'm talking about.

None of the Wii Sports games use the sensor bar. It is only used when you are selecting things from menus; even then you can still use the control pad as an alternate. Don't believe me? Try covering up the sensor bar or bowling from another room. It still works the same.

A better (read: useful) tip is to watch your timing on releasing the B button when bowling. You want to release just as your Mii is bringing the ball back up.

And defective by the droves...

[MrPerfekt]

Apparently, the firmware update is rendering the online portion of the system busted for many people. Mine is one of the affected units.

See http://forums.nintendo.com/nintendo/board/message? board.id=internet&message.id=2729 for more.

I waited 12 hours in line for the system so I'm disappointed by this and the fact that there are no component cables to be found (gotta order them online, joy). But the control scheme doesn't suck which can't be changed and is why I bought the system. Overall, another new tech snafu but I'm not really surprised.

Re:And defective by the droves...

[WillAffleckUW]

Oh, so that's why it took so long once we hooked up the wireless.

I just figured it browned out from all the people who bought the system and registered it the same day, as opposed to the usually resold PS3.

I also heard from some friends that they had problems with their controllers picking up who was Player 1 and who was Player 2 at the beginning (first player presses two buttons then second player presses two buttons). But it works like a dream once you get that done.

Ours works fine, but could be because we stored our Mii avatars on the remotes.

Re:And defective by the droves...

[Anonymous Coward]

"I just figured it browned out from all the people who bought the system and registered it the same day, as opposed to the usually resold PS3."

Uh, better watch the smack talk, there are more Wii's on eBay than PS3s...

Re:And defective by the droves...

[NotthatFrankie]

The component cables will be found in stores soon (EB games employee says they'll be recieving some tuesday). And I expect the firmware thing to be resolved soon. I'm not the one suffering, though.

What I did find slightly annoying was the fact that they didn't have all the features ready by launch. No browser (it being free was one the reason I got a Wii early), no news and no weather. Bummer. But I'm sure it won't matter down the road.

Re:And defective by the droves...

[Anonymous Coward]

You waited in line twelve hours to browse the Internet, and when you finally got in you went to SLASHDOT?

Re:Yes but the PS3, is it an investment?

[sqlrob]

You've got it backwards. It $306 for 20, $240 for 60

she said score...

[Anonymous Coward]

eh heh heh heh...

lol ;)

Back-order? Direct-order?

[j741]

O.K. so they're sold out and Nintendo says more are coming. Great. But I don't want to spend the next few weeks driving around from store to store looking for one. I'd rather just go to Nintendo's website and order one directly and wait until it is available and ships to me without any hassle. But no, there's no way that I can see to order directly from Nintendo. Instead, a consumer MUST use a local retail outlet. Unfortunately, none of the outlets I visited are taking any orders. If they're out of stock, that's it. No other option. This sucks. Why cant they do some kind of 'pay now and we'll send it to you when it's here' ordering process.

Re:Yes but the PS3, is it an investment?

[WillAffleckUW]

Are you serious? Oh, so they lose more on the base machine ...

Thanks!

Re:The still-unanswered question, where r they?

[WillAffleckUW]

This, unfortunately, doesn't answer my most pressing question - when can we expect a restock?

I talked to a lot of different stores, and most of them seemed to indicate monday afternoon is the earliest a restock could happen.

Costco won't even be selling their bundle (Wii, controller, Wii Sports, Excite Truck, Zelda) until Tuesday.

Fred Meyer should restock by Tuesday morning.

I think the EBX guys said something similar.

Sears said something like Tuesday.

So, if you missed out on getting one at midnight Saturday (we were 6th out of the store with ours, plus Zelda, Rayman's Raving Rabbids (cool!)), just check by on Tuesday. We have a controller to pick up ourselves (already got Excite Truck and the 2nd nunchuk).

The Long Game

[GodInHell]

(no pun intended)

You can't tell by initial launch statistics what will happen to a game system. Expectations were low for the PS1 so its modest early sales were a great success, but by the time the PS2 came out every little problem was "the sony killer!."

Hyperbole aside, all three of the major players have a good entry in this round of the "console wars" and victory will almost certainly come down to who has the better killer-apps.

Halo 3 for the win!

-GiH

Re:The Long Game

[Odin_Tiger]

Halo 3 for the win!

20-year back-library of proven titles + innovative new games based on wiimote control scheme for the win!

Re:Bowling doesn't use the sensor bar

[WillAffleckUW]

So, you're saying I curve because I release the ball to late?

Oh. I thought it was my bowling form.

Hint to everyone: clear off a large portion of space to play the games in, or you'll whack people a bit.

I'll try it on Turkey Day.

Meanwhile, 12408 PS3 systems on sale on eBay.

[Animats]

12408 PS3 systems on sale on eBay. And 20574 Wii systems. Way too many. Many of those speculators are going to lose money.

Actual selling prices on eBay are around $350 for the Wii and $750-$800 for the base PS3 today. That's today; there have been significant drops since yesterday. There are still many excessive "buy it now" prices on auctions, and high reserve prices, but those are just asking prices, and are meaningless. Those auctions fail, while the lower priced ones end in a transaction. "Reserve reduced" is now showing for many auctions.

Prices are dropping faster than they did for the Xbox 360.

Re:Meanwhile, 12408 PS3 systems on sale on eBay.

[lpangelrob]

I agree; it's been interesting watching prices on transactions on eBay today.

The morning started with Wiis going at a certain range; $350-$450. Presentation matters, since apparently giant red text makes more people bite. Bigger bites if you managed to grab a component cable at the same store.

Reserves generally aren't being met at $380 sometimes. With a margin of $70-$170 (assuming you bought at $280 after taxes) and shrinking fairly quickly, it would be a good idea to just cash in and be rid of your Wii as soon as you can.

I highly doubt a Wii on eBay will be selling for less than retail anytime soon, but a lot of participants probably would equate a $20-$50 margin as a loss.

Re:Meanwhile, 12408 PS3 systems on sale on eBay.

[ad0gg]

Supply and demand. No one wants a wii. I'd only buy a wii for base price and only to play zelda, the other games suck from reading the reviews, only other worth getting is madden. Of course ps3 doesn't have a good launch lineup either and looking at the reviews, worse than the wii's lineup. I guess i'll buy a 360 which actually has decent games to play(gears of wars is getting great reviews), wait till next year to decide whether or not to buy a wii or a ps3 depending what games they come out with.

Re:Meanwhile, 12408 PS3 systems on sale on eBay.

[Control Group]

Supply and demand. No one wants a wii.

That's simply not a conclusion you can draw from the information the GP presented. The fact that Wii prices are dropping doesn't necessarily indicate anything about demand or supply, it only tells you something about the intersection of quantity demanded and quantity supplied.

By your argument, if Sony shipped and sold 10 million units at launch, so the prices on ebay auctions weren't significantly higher than MSRP, the conclusion would be "no one wants a PS3." When, in fact, selling out 10 million consoles at launch would be an unprecedented statement that 10 million people wanted a PS3.

Really, the only relevant conclusion you can draw from the ebay prices at this point is that quantity demanded for the Wii exceeded quantity supplied for the Wii less than quantity demanded for the PS3 exceeded quantity supplied for the PS3. Which could easily be explained by there being anywhere from 2 to 5 times as many Wiis available at launch as PS3s, depending on who you ask. Drawing any conclusions about the absolute demand for either console at this point based on this information is simply bad thinking.

Re:Meanwhile, 12408 PS3 systems on sale on eBay.

[MeanderingMind]

If there's one thing I've learned from ebay and later the AH in WoW, it's that flooding a market depreciates value like nothing else. You could drag the Wii behind a manure truck and someone would pay full price if it was the only one on there, but when there are 20k availible there just isn't any sense that "If I don't buy this here and now I won't be able to get one".

Too many people saw the profits that were made on the 360 and got greedy. The result is obviously not worth quitting a job over.

Re:Meanwhile, 12408 PS3 systems on sale on eBay.

[ad0gg]

But you forget history, Microsoft sold 900k 360s from nov to dec. Yet the prices on ebay didn't drop till march. Some how i think i'll able find a wii in the store by christmas and nintendo has 1 million allocated to north america for the holiday season, only 10% supply difference.

Re:Meanwhile, 12408 PS3 systems on sale on eBay.

[Anonymous Coward]

I think the only thing conclusions we can draw so far are that a) there are a lot more Wiis and they have been selling rapidly, and b) you are a fucktard.

Re:Meanwhile, 12408 PS3 systems on sale on eBay.

[MemoryDragon]

Basic math... if you have n units of a console in fluctuation then you basically get an average of m percent into the resale channels. Not lets assume that the percentage of the units being pushed into resale channels being dependend on the i want to keep it value... Now we have about 3-4 times the delivered units of wii compared to ps3s, and only slightly 40% more absolute units on ebay. Starting from this assumption the relative percentage of resold wii is much less. But lets assume the truth, a lot of ps3s simply were bought due to get rich quick reasons why a lot of wii were bought because people actually wanted to play the games. I assume the wii is quite popular, contrary to the conclusions of the original poster. You can also see that at the number of games being sold additionally!

Re:Meanwhile, 12408 PS3 systems on sale on eBay.

[Anonymous Coward]

The taxes, thats what I keep forgetting! They aren't included in the RRP in the US because they vary state to state.

I was wondering why it was so hard to get one at RRP.

(Sorry, this may seem like a Captain Obvious statement, but here in Australia the GST is included in prices)

Re: Are they defective or just console war smack?

[WillAffleckUW]

Uh, better watch the smack talk, there are more Wii's on eBay than PS3s...

Yeah, but that's cause there were five times as many Wii consoles sold on release day.

Unlike the PS3 lines, where National Public Radio couldn't find more than 5 percent of people who had pre-ordered consoles that hadn't sold them or put them up for auction, most of the people in line to get the Wii consoles intended to play them.

And spent until today doing just that.

It was on the radio yesterday morning.

How long will you be playing these games?

[jchenx]

I haven't picked up a Wii yet (had no intentions of camping overnight for a console), but probably will later this year, primarily just for Zelda.

That said, I've been reading a lot of reviews for these games (Zelda, Excite Truck, and Wii Sports in particular), and it's generally only Zelda that has gotten the big thumbs up. The other two are fun, but it's questionable how long you'll be playing them. One of my biggest concerns is that some of the first Wii games are going to be like the first DS games ... interesting for a little bit, since it uses a new play-mechanic, but ultimately stale in the long run.

Are you finding this to be true? I wonder if it depends on the audience as well. If you're a hardcore gamer, then no doubt games like Excite Truck and Wii Sports are not going to hold your attention very long. But if you're a casual gamer, which is who Nintendo is now targeting, those games might be good enough for you. And hardcore gamers will still have titles like Zelda: Twilight Princess to obsess over.

If it's anything like the DS, it's probably going to take a few months before developers really "get it" in terms of how to use the Wii-mote properly. Already reviews are starting to show that some games (Red Steel in particular) do it badly, while other games do a better job.

Re:How long will you be playing these games?

[WillAffleckUW]

Don't count out Rayman's Raving Rabbids - that's the most fun of all the games I've played!

Oh, and we tried a GameCube game and stuck in two of the GameCube controllers and it was sweet. Graphics were better, load times super fast, and absolutely no probs.

I'm very happy with the games. As to using the Wii-mote - when I did the Wii Age Test, it made me play Tennis - hadn't played the game yet - and I was able to hit more than half of the volleys right off the bat. Same with the Baseball test - I was hitting the ball way more than I'd expect when I'd never used the controller before that day, or the game.

I heard a lot of the PS3 games aren't very PS3-like, more like old-style PS2 or xBox360 games.

Your mileage may vary, of course.

Re:How long will you be playing these games?

[jchenx]

Yeah, I've heard lots of good things about Rayman, might have to at least give it a rental (assuming Wii games will be available in Blockbuster sometime).

As for backwards compatibility, I don't have a GC (it's the only Nintendo generation that I "skipped", although I do have a ton of GBA and DS games), so that doesn't really matter to me. I am, though, interested in seeing how the Virtual Console fares.

Re:How long will you be playing these games?

[buffer-overflowed]

The VC games I've downloaded so far are perfectly emulated, they play precisely like the originals do. The genesis ones in particular impress me, because I've yet to find a really good genesis emulator that doesn't do odd things in full-screen mode on my TV(for some reason the refresh rates on the emulators I've tried and my TV do *NOT* get along).

Only issue/annoyance is it doesn't autoshift the aspect ratio on your TV, so you have to do that by hand. And the selection is pretty limited atm... no Dungeon Explorer or Gunstar Heroes yet. Supposedly more games coming this weekend though.

The other annoyance is that I can't frickin' find a classic controller anywhere. Everything Wii is in short supply.

Also, you may want to nab a few of the better gamecube games. There were some good ones, and you can find em dirt cheap in the used sections of stores these days.

Re:How long will you be playing these games?

[Anonymous Coward]

If you don't have a GC then backwards compatibility is a much bigger deal! If you had one, you'd have played all the good cube games. But, not owning a cube, you probably haven't - this means that when you get a Wii you also get the ability to play Mario Sunshine, Pikmin, Rogue Squadron 2 and Metroid Prime. More than enough excellent games to keep you busy if good Wii games aren't coming out as fast as you'd like.

Of course, a real cube only costs $50 anyway.

Re:How long will you be playing these games?

[cowscows]

Wii sports is tons of fun, although I probably won't be playing it for hours at a time two years from now. My girlfriend and I played it for about 4 hours on Sunday, and I'm sore as all hell now. Good times though. She loves it, a non-gaming friend who tried it for 10 minutes thought it was awesome, and I've enjoyed it as well. The bowling game is probably the most complete, because bowling is fairly straightforwards. There's a bowling mini-game where more pins are added each frame, and I can't get enough of that. Like others have noted, the boxing game is less responsive and that annoys me. The girlfriend really liked it however. It has a dodging mini-game that was really fun though (and really tiring). The rest of the sports games are fun, but shallow. All of them show some great potential for more dedicated and flushed out versions of each particular sport. Someone will make a great Wii golfing game eventually.

Excite truck seemed just ok to me, but I'm not the hugest racing game fan. The girlfriend really enjoys it, and informed me that she was planning on spending most of her morning playing it since she gets to go into work late today. We have, so far, been unable to find a second controller, but I'm anticipating that Excite Truck will be a better multi-player than single player experience.

I have mixed feelings on Red Steel. Running around in the game with an Uzi, pointing exactly where you want to shoot and having the controller vibrate as you fire feels much better to me than analog sticks ever had. The sword fighting doesn't work so well, I could do without it. It's a weird mix of mimicing your movements vs. preset animations and it just doesn't feel right. I'm only an hour or so into the game, but I've been entertained for the most part. The AI isn't great, and the graphics aren't great, but I've still had fun with it. It's good enough that I believe that we'll see some great FPS's for the Wii. High hopes for Metroid.

I haven't opened Zelda yet, because it's going to be a serious time investment. Doesn't look like I'll be disappointed there.

Re:How long will you be playing these games?

[jchenx]

The thought of going back through some GC games is tempting. I'm not a platformer fan, so I wouldn't really care for Mario Sunshine or some of the other platformers. But I am interested in FF: Crystal Chronicles and Wind Waker.

That said, I also have a 360 and PS2 and there are more than enough titles still on those platforms to keep me occupied, so in reality, I'll probably never get around to GC titles. But Twilight Princess alone makes me want a Wii.

Re:How long will you be playing these games?

[buffer-overflowed]

Also Metroid Prime 1/2, RE4(if you don't have the PS2 version), and Eternal Darkness(if you don't mind the rather dated graphics) are top-notch.

Well, the longer you wait, the cheaper the console gets and the more games get released for it. More games also start flowing into the used pipeline. It'll also become available and you might be able to find component cables.

I still had a *huge* backlog on the DS/PS2 when I nabbed my Wii, but I'm justifying it to myself by saying that Zelda is Awesome, the multiplayer stuff is a blast, christmas is coming up and I'll be traveling, so I can work through the DS backlog then, and at least I'm set for almost all of next summer. If by some miracle, I clear through my backlog before next year, I'll probably finally pick up my own 360. PS3 will be 2008 at the earliest(and hopefully they have PS2 adapters by then, so I can play custom controller games on the thing).

Sigh.

Re: Are they defective or just console war smack?

[Pluvius]

Has anyone called you a Nintendo astroturfer yet?

Cuz, you know, it's pretty obvious.

Rob

Mod Parrent UP

[HappySqurriel]

I'd mod you up if I had points ...

RTFsummary. 1 million units IN THE U.S. Probably a lot more worldwide, especially in Japan.

The fact is that most people have claimed "1 Million Units in North America" and this is specifically about the US. The Wii was Launched in North America on Sunday with approximately 10% of the systems going to Canada; in order for 1 Million units to be sold in the United States at this ration 1.11 Million units would have to be sold in North America. If you assumed 1 Million units shipped up front, with 100,000 each following week (all of which sold out) it would be sometime in your third shipment (second restock) that you'd break 1 Million units sold in the United States; completely on track with his statement.

Re:Mod Parrent UP

[Pluvius]

Excellent deduction, except for the fact that that's not what Nintendo said.

"Nintendo of America president Reggie Fils-Aime has stated that he expects the company will have sold 1 million units in the Americas by early December and 2 million by the second week in January."
[Emphasis added.]

Zonk just screwed up the /. headline is all.

Rob

Re: Are they defective or just console war smack?

[Hitto]

Oh, come on, like Nintendo needs them. Oh, yeah, I forgot, everytime Nintendo is mentioned on /., someone needs to say "ZONK ZONK ZONKED" to sound like a rebel.

How about you? Do you work for Sony? I hear your company's got some baaaaad press, right now...

Re:Back-order? Direct-order?

[LKM]

I'd rather just go to Nintendo's website and order one directly and wait until it is available and ships to me without any hassle

Console manufacturers need the stores' support. They won't compete with them. If Nintendo opened an online store, stores would stock less games and consoles and give them less shelf space. People going to the stores would perceive Nintendo to be the smaller brand and would buy other consoles instead.

Am I allowed to answer?

[HTH NE1]

from the like-our-shiny-new-icon? dept.

Yes. Nice Wiicon.

Re:Am I allowed to answer?

[Drinking Bleach]

Why is /. still using GIF though? The pictures nice, but ugh, GIF is so obsolete. I could compile my browser GIF-less if it weren't for slashdot :(

Re-affirming 5yr cycle

[gmezero]

I just keep pointing this out so it sticks in people's minds and helps scuttle the FUD and speculation when Nintendo is going to release this or that system down the line.

It was nice to see Reggie actually put some back-handed validation onto a 30 year trend.

Re:Back-order? Direct-order?

[Garse Janacek]

This sucks. Why cant they do some kind of 'pay now and we'll send it to you when it's here' ordering process.

Look, this seems to be really bothering you, so I'm willing to help you out: just pay me now, and don't worry about it. I'll send it to you when it's here.

Re:Yes but the PS3, is it an investment?

[Amouth]

the sad part is your way off.. sony makes 8$ per copy of 3rd party games.. at a 306$ loss they need 38.25 3rd party games sales to break even.. i don't know anyone with that many games for one consol..

they are hopeing to make it up with movies.. trying to make blue ray have a a foot hold in the home.. i don't know how much they make per disk on that.. but it better be alot or this is going to really sting

Re:Yes but the PS3, is it an investment?

[WillAffleckUW]

the sad part is your way off.. sony makes 8$ per copy of 3rd party games.. at a 306$ loss they need 38.25 3rd party games sales to break even.. i don't know anyone with that many games for one consol..

Wow. Now, that is bad. No wonder they paid so much for all those ads on TV, MTV, etc.

6 year lifespan

[Kelbear]

Don't get me wrong, I love the Wii for its controls. But I hate the weak graphics. I like gameplay, but I'm not going to pretend that graphics don't matter. I'd rather have both. I understand that they're focused on the controller this generation and that's great.

But I was hoping that the following generation would come in 4 years and would maintain the fun controls while packing in some respectable power behind it. I sure hope I won't have to wait 6 years for the Wii's sequel.

Re:6 year lifespan

[MeanderingMind]

I have an HDTV, an Xbox 360 and a Wii. I don't have a component cable for the Wii (yet) but honestly the difference isn't "weak". It is a noticable difference to be sure, but the Wii's graphics are excellent even though they are not as good as the 360 or the PS3.

It reminds me of the difference between the PS2 and the Xbox/GC's graphics. There was a noticable difference, but it didn't stop the PS2 from having a greater market share.

I'd assume that the difference is even less noticable if you had an SDTV.

Re:6 year lifespan

[Rallion]

I sure hope I won't have to wait 6 years for the Wii's sequel.

You probably won't. It's in Nintendo's best interest to overstate the lifespan of their consoles.

Re:6 year lifespan

[trdrstv]

As with Sony. They said they want 10 years from the PS3... they also said that of the PS2...

Re:6 year lifespan

[DarkJC]

I'm going to have to say that I think you're making them a bit better than they are. I had a PS3 and Wii hooked up to the same TV here, and Zelda, while still good in its own right as a Zelda title, couldn't compare to anything the PS3 pumped out of it. The leap is much bigger than PS2 -> GC/Xbox, and I think in a few years the gap is going to widen even more.

Re:6 year lifespan

[Anonymous Coward]

Also note that the zelda game is a GameCube port, so I don't think we can really say it is indicative of the graphics power of the wii. Such as the fact it only needs to make about a 1/4 the resolution of the PS3/360 with the same level of effects. Also, the gpus probably aren't that far apart in power, while the Wii cpu is non-squential. on the other hand I have no numbers to quote here, making this conjecture at best, and blant turfing at worst.

Re: Are they defective or just console war smack?

[MeanderingMind]

Facts usually are.

Re: Are they defective or just console war smack?

[Pluvius]

Yes, a fact that he "heard on the radio" with no citation or supporting evidence given whatsoever. A fact that also disingenuously refers to "the PS3 lines" even though the statistic given is based on pre-orders.

Rob

And what's the Wii total

[dosboot]

How many Wii's have been sold anyways?

Re:And what's the Wii total

[MemoryDragon]

Inofficial numbers on the net speak about roughly 600.000 worldwide so far... But it is released so far only in japan and the USA... It pretty much is sold out, every unit produced is sold!

Re: Are they defective or just console war smack?

[a_nonamiss]

I can second this. I heard it on NPR yesterday as well. No, I can't tell you the exact time, who said it, which reporter conducted the interview, but I did hear it.

Re:Yes but the PS3, is it an investment?

[MobileTatsu-NJG]

"the sad part is your way off.. sony makes 8$ per copy of 3rd party games.. at a 306$ loss they need 38.25 3rd party games sales to break even.. i don't know anyone with that many games for one consol.."

Well, it's not as bad as that.

a.) They make a killing on controllers and accesories. (Cables, too.)

b.) The price of the PS3 will go down. They may not break even within the first 500k, but over time the actual loss amount will be lower. (It'll eventually make a profit.)

c.) If micro-transactions ever take off, they'll generate revenue from that, too. But I'll admit I'm scraping the bottom of the barrel, there.

Re:Bowling doesn't use the sensor bar

[AvitarX]

Lining up with the sensor bar helped by game, but not because of the bar itself.

The car is centered on my TV, when I played not dead center I would move the Wiimote towards the screen adding a curve to towards the screen (left) to all my shots.

Re: Are they defective or just console war smack?

[Leviance]

Article: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?story Id=6512617&ft=2&f=1095

Re:Bowling doesn't use the sensor bar

[WillAffleckUW]

Ahh. So I was correct. I think I was doing the same thing, for the same reasons.

So, the moral of the story is trust what works (lining up with the sensor bar, which you already centered above or below the TV), and don't worry about why it works (due to your actual form).

Re:Yes but the PS3, is it an investment?

[Maxwell]

for those who don't get it (not sure on parent sarcasm, but I have heard this statement before that they 'lose more on the high end machines')

It costs sony ~ $34 more to make a premium machine. They charge $100 more for it.

So, yes, they lose more on the base machine as they 'make' an additional ~$66 on the high end ones.

somewhat on topic: I played the WII, X360, PS3 side by side for several hours yesterday. The Wii graphic looks like the PS/2, and I found the controller tiring/annoying - Zelda was tricky to get the hang of and I am not sure the game play was any better with the double controller setup. I was not able to throw a knife at the bunny (not sure on the game- a seris of carnival games) and we passed the controller around and most of us just gave up on it. General impressions were similar to mine : this looks old and is hard to use. (No wonder it is so cheap - it doesn't look or play any better than the PS/2) All consoles were on LCD panels and the Wii looked truly awful - like using an analog VGA card and a LCD panel on your computer. The X360 and PS3 looked similar, very sharp, but I liked the PS3 controller better. This was at the Wii launch party, so don't blame me if the Wii's weren't set up properly.

Fav game was motostorm (PS3). The desert rally section looked a lot like Rally of the Rim (a real rally race) Very impressive. NBA07 on PS3 looked too real - come on guys the floor is not *that* shiny. RR7 same issue, cars don't stay that shiny on the streets for very long, and whats with the weird trailing effects? Tony Hawk had the most unlifelike falls ever, your body flys through the air and and then hovers above the ground in a heap. Its weird and it happens in a semi-slow motion thing too, like they thought it would be cool. Uhm, forget the rest.

Will probably replace the DVD player with a PS3 in the spring.

JON

Re:Back-order? Direct-order?

[patternmatch]

Why cant they do some kind of 'pay now and we'll send it to you when it's here' ordering process.

Yes, if only there were some way to order a Wii online and have it shipped to you when it's in stock...

Re: Are they defective or just console war smack?

[WillAffleckUW]

Yes, a fact that he "heard on the radio" with no citation or supporting evidence given whatsoever. A fact that also disingenuously refers to "the PS3 lines" even though the statistic given is based on pre-orders.

I heard it on KUOW, the local NPR station. I can't remember what "show" it was, I was waking up at 9 after having been up until 3 playing the Wii. It was a national NPR news feed. The reference to lines was also from coverage on CNN. I also watched G4 on cable for game-day and release coverage, from The Show, from that review thing with Adam whoever and whatshername, and some other thing they do. I also checked Comcast's On Demand G4 game reviews and cheats they posted Saturday.

So I don't like wasting my time posting links. Sue me. If the truth hurts, deal with it. But don't blame me. I'm not the media.

Re:Is the PS3 a Hinderberg or a Party Balloon?

[WillAffleckUW]

This is more of an anecdote than a source, but I can state with certainty that the Target I work at got 8 PS3's in, as opposed to 51 Wii's. Both lines were full by midnight on launch day. All stores in my area (I've been given approximate numbers for a Walmart and 4 EBGameStops) have very similar ratios and reports. That may or may not be representative, but at least it's hard numbers.

Another actual anecdote, the Fred Meyer near my place had signs and verbally said they had 70 Wii consoles and 3 PS3 consoles on their respective launch days.

Look, maybe there are secret hidden supplies of PS3 hiding in warehouses. We don't know about that. We're just the buying public, and from our perspective, it looks like there are a lot more Wii's on the ground than there are PS3's. Why? Everything I've read in the Wall Street Journal and Fortune seems to say it's because Sony has a supply shortage at the manufacturing end, whereas Nintendo doesn't.

Is it true? Beats me. But a lot more people lined up and were happy and got Wii consoles than lined up and went home angry at not getting a PS3. That's got to hurt from a marketing perspective.

And think of those of us who bought one. We've already told all our relatives to buy Wii games for our kid(s). That demand won't be there for a PS3 sitting in someone's broomcloset or stuck on Ebay.

Re:Yes but the PS3, is it an investment?

[DDLKermit007]

Ummm...Sony doesn't get the full $50 from the sale. They get maybe $10-$15 off of each game. Last gen they were getting about $6 off each game. It takes a whooooole lot more than 6 games for them to break even.

Wait til the XBOX 360 Discounting Hits

[goatpunch]

Then the PS3 will really start hurting. Future Shop in Canada had a 1-day special to celebrate the release of the PS3; the XBOX 360 Pro with over CAD$200 of games (Ghost Recon AW, Arcade, Gears of War, Ridge Racer 6) for CAD$449. Even if you only wanted GOW from that lot, that would work out at US$330 for the 'Pro' version- half the price of a PS3 and about a game more than the Wii.

Still a bad idea...

[Inoshiro]

"Sony bought a customer."

For $304, I'd damn well better buy 15 games at $59.99 USD for them to break even, let alone for them to actually make back a decent return on their dollars. Or am I supposed to go ahead and buy around 10 games at $59.99 USD and then make up the other $100 in microtransactions somehow?

(I'm assuming Sony makes $20 out of the $59.99, and the rest is retailer + distributor + publisher + developer overhead).

Re:Yes but the PS3, is it an investment?

[modeless]

No, they are hoping to make it up two years from now when the PS3 is still selling like hotcakes but it costs $400 less to make. But in order for that to happen, they need good games. And for good games to be released two years from now, they need to already be in development. But for people to start developing games, they need to know there will be a market to sell them. So Sony has to start selling PS3s now, no matter what the cost, to produce a market for the games that will drive PS3 purchases years from now when it's finally profitable to sell them.

1 Million Wiis To Be Sold....

[Dannon]

But I hear there are only 50 Wiis to leave your lover....

Re:Yes but the PS3, is it an investment?

[Amouth]

sounds like the chicken and egg problem.. i hope they can make it work for them.. but for right now i am glad i don't have stock in sony.. don't get me wrong.. i think teh ps3 is way over priced and i don't like how they did alot of suff.. but to be honest the more types of consoles out there the better off we all are.

Re: Sony bought a customer.

[trdrstv]

in my mind a customer is someone who I'm profiting from, not who is profiting from me.

Though they are not mutually exclusive, Sony IS profiting off you as a consumer by you buying their machine. This comes in the way of you buying the games, accessories, movies, etc... as previously stated. They are selling 'Mind share' "I had positive experiances with Sony Brand TV, so I'll check out their surround sound systems..."

Another thing you are buying with a PS3 (or any other console for that matter) is DRM. You're buying vendor lock-in. Virtually everything you buy to compliment that system puts money back into Sony's pockets. That to them is an investment.

Re:Buy a customer for the long haul.

[trdrstv]

"For $304, I'd damn well better buy 15 games at $59.99 USD for them to break even, let alone for them to actually make back"

At launch that's crazy, but over 5-6 years over a console's life (or 10 as Sony hopes for the PS3) it is very conceivable. Don't forget about extra controllers, Hi-def cables, eye toys, etc...

If you own a PS2, count how many games you ever bought new . You could have traded them in or what not, but every one new sold gives them money; Any 1st party games they get more money, Every controller, every memory card, the network adapter for the original PS2, The Hard drive, and the most obvious 'should have been in the machine to begin with' Multi-tap. How many people bought PS1's and upgraded to the PS2? How many PS2 owners will upgrade to the PS3? You are also buying Brand Loyalty.

At launch they don't make money. They have high start up costs, R&D, advertising, etc... They are in it for 4+ years per console and over that time they can make money (provided they grow their userbase enough).

Re: Sony bought a customer.

[99BottlesOfBeerInMyF]

Sony IS profiting off you as a consumer by you buying their machine. This comes in the way of you buying the games, accessories, movies, etc... as previously stated.

This is false. They potentially benefit from people who buy their machines but there is nothing inherent in buying a PS3 that forces me to buy games, accessories, etc. They benefit from my buying these add ons. In losing money selling me a console they are counting on me buying those other products, which is why this is akin to marketing. They spent money for potential benefits, not necessarily real benefits.

Another thing you are buying with a PS3 (or any other console for that matter) is DRM. You're buying vendor lock-in.

So if I go buy a PS3 and disassemble it for the laser and other components I've bought DRM and vendor lock in? Nope. Again, these are potential benefits to Sony, not ones inherent in the purchase.

False News?

[LKM]

GoNintendo/CNet have different news:

Nintendo will bring approximately 2 million Wii game consoles to the U.S. by the end of the year, a wave of machines that could help the company gain ground in the console wars.

All 2 million aren't in the U.S. right now. However, Nintendo plans to restock U.S. distributors and retailers on a weekly basis, according to the company. The console will next launch in Japan on December 2 and in Europe on December 8. Earlier this month, Nintendo said it would ship around 400,000 consoles into Japan this year.

In all, 4 million will ship this year.

Of the three console makers, Nintendo so far seems to have done the most thorough job in getting retailers and distributors stocked. The $250 Wii console, which went on sale over the weekend, was available in several retail outlets. Some early buyers are selling consoles on eBay, but generally current bidding is in the $300 to $400 range with games and extras.

Re: Semantics.

[trdrstv]

Not 100% of those will be tied to future purchases. Some just smash them on camera, mod them into Grills or whatever, but they are the minority of purchases. Sony is selling the machine mearly as a gateway for you to buy more of their products.

Whether that is investment on their part, or marketing (or if marketing is considered an investment), really is a matter of semantics.

Re: Are they defective or just console war smack?

[jchenx]

Ahh, a fellow KUOW listener. If it's at 9 AM, then it's Weekday with Steve Scher. I don't think, though, he had a show regarding the PS3, so it may have been one of the hourly news reports.

That said, a few game sites (Kotaku and Joystiq) also did some non-scientific polling and they had similar findings. The vast majority of people in line were eBay sellers.

Re: Are they defective or just console war smack?

[WillAffleckUW]

Think it was the hourly NPR news report, maybe Maura Liason (sp?)

All I know is what I see and hear.

Stats won't be published until after Black Friday (this Friday), and those don't normally come out until Dec. 15th (you can get advance numbers on 12/12 I think, but you have to pay for them).