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Financial Analyst Calls Second Life a Pyramid Scheme

Petey_Alchemist writes "Silicon Valley gossip rag Valleywag is carrying a story about Second Life being a new spin on the old pyramid scheme. The article, which consists mostly of selections from the report of financial consultant Randolph Harrison, suggests that not only are most people deceived about the amount of money they can make in Second Life, but also about how easily they can withdraw it. It says 'Like the paid promotion infomercials that run on CNBC, sadly SecondLife is a giant magnet for the desperate, uninformed, easily victimized. Its promises of wealth readily ensnare those who can least afford to lose their money or lives to such scam in exactly the same way that real estate investor seminars convince divorcees with low FICO scores to buy houses sight unseen with no money down.'"

334 comments

  1. Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by ArsenneLupin · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ... or any other thing that may give money to the lucky?

    1. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by FleshMuppet · · Score: 5, Insightful
      ... or any other thing that may give money to the lucky?

      No, because the value of a company's stock is based on real assets, liabilities, and income: all of which are easily translatable to real money, and which commonly pay cash dividends. This is commonly referred to as liquidity- the ability to transform whatever type of investment one has made into actual cash. The article asserts that transferring money from Second Life 'assets' to real-world cash is much more difficult than people are being made to believe, and that the only way to make money is to pass off those 'assets' to some other sucker.

    2. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by PrvtBurrito · · Score: 3, Informative

      No. First the stock market is guided by US and International law. Second, much like copyrights and IP, they too are also protected by law. Second life property and currency has no more value than selling property on the moon. Finally, the stock market does not only give money to the lucky, the past 80 years have shown that, over time, it gives money to everyone.

      --
      Laboratree - Scientific collaboration based on OpenSocial.
    3. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Cinnamon+Whirl · · Score: 0

      Surely its only a pyramid scheme if it guarantees a return?
      The stock market, or "any other thing that may give money to the lucky" is legal, because it is sustainable due to losses other people make, and are fully aware of.

    4. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by ArsenneLupin · · Score: 2, Insightful

      No, because the value of a company's stock is based on real assets, liabilities, and That would be the so-called "book value". However, many healthy companies are worth much more that their assets...

      income: This is a more realistic source of value. Value is based on income versus risk. However, even here, many companies are/were tremendously overvalued (no way the company's income (even future income) could justify the share price), especially during the period before the bubble burst...

      ...the only way to make money is to pass off those 'assets' to some other sucker. ... as is the case with most shares as well (yes, some companies do have share buyback programs, but these are the exception, rather than the rule...).

      Liquidity of the stock is usually the result of having enough "suckers" around to be interested in the assets.

    5. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by CreatureComfort · · Score: 4, Informative


      Except that if you rely on luck for your stock picking, you really need to get out of the market. No, really. Day traders and the ignorant make the jobs of real investors much more difficult. Not impossible, and really not even less profitable, just more difficult.

      On the other hand, if you do your research, long term investing in well run businesses with good financials has far less risk and higher return than almost anything else you can do with your money.

      --
      "Unheard of means only it's undreamed of yet,
      Impossible means not yet done." ~~ Julia Ecklar
    6. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Marillion · · Score: 1

      Second life is too unregulated. Also the stock market has a goal of developing wealth for the investor. The same isn't true of second life. Second life has a very high overhead for infrastructure (sims) and they have other economic forces that make ridiculous things like camping chairs profitable for their owners.

      --
      This is a boring sig
    7. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by nelsonal · · Score: 1

      The wealth of the stock market comes in part (for most companies) from dividends which changes a zero sum game to a postitive sum game, less directly but equally positive, share repurchases also infuse new money into the markets.

      --
      Degaussing scares the bad magnetism out of the monitor and fills it with good karma.
    8. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Mr.+Slippery · · Score: 2, Insightful
      No, because the value of a company's stock is based on real assets, liabilities, and income: all of which are easily translatable to real money, and which commonly pay cash dividends.

      Not for a long time. Most do not pay dividends, and their value has little relation to any actual assets a company might have.

      Stocks are like baseball cards: pieces of paper with collector's value.

      --
      Tom Swiss | the infamous tms | my blog
      You cannot wash away blood with blood
    9. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by JeffSh · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The US Dollar isn't based on anything other than trust now - fiat money. What makes second life, or any other currency, any different?

      Currency gets its value thanks to simple acceptance.

    10. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      Day traders and the ignorant make the jobs of real investors much more difficult.
      Day trading is gambling; therefore it should be illegal everywhere gambling is illegal. Even worse: You know all those penny stock spam mails you get? They won't stop until day trading becomes illegal.

      Tell your congress person that you think day trading should be illegal. Maybe if this gets decent moderation at least one person will do just that and this post won't have been in vain.

      <gollum>We hateses the nasty, dirty spam. We hateses it!</gollum>
    11. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by FleshMuppet · · Score: 5, Informative

      Okay, I realize that you are simply making snide comments about the value of traditional investment vehicles, and that I might be feeding a troll here, but I am simply explaining the argument the analyst takes in the article, which you seem to not have read or are ignoring altogether. It does not matter what you think of the stock market, etcetera. The analyst has stated clear, identifiable criteria that differentiate the stock market and what they regard as a market in Second Life. You can dismiss the value of trading ownership in a company, but that doesn't change the fact that it is different than what the analyst claims is happening in Second Life.

      Roughly speaking, a Ponzi scheme is one in which the perpetrators make false claims in order to lure investors. Once they have some investors coming in, they begin to pay back the earliest investors in order to create hype and garner more investors. People make money in ponzi schemes, but only by being at the top of the pyramid. What separates a Ponzi scheme from an actual market is that in an actual market, the items being traded have value outside of the system itself, and that access to liquidity is therefore available at levels other than the top. The article claims that because cash exchanges and the corresponding exchange rates are controlled by the people at the 'top', they are the only people with the ability to achieve substantial liquidity, and therefore, to make any money. This is why they say it resembles a Ponzi scheme more than an actual market.

      That would be the so-called "book value". However, many healthy companies are worth much more that their assets...
      This is a more realistic source of value. Value is based on income versus risk. However, even here, many companies are/were tremendously overvalued (no way the company's income (even future income) could justify the share price), especially during the period before the bubble burst...

      Differences in valuation and perception are what make the stock market work, and why people make and loose money speculating in the market (and in other markets and industries as well). You can pay too much for anything, be it a stock, a pig, a bushel of corn, or necklace with fake diamonds you find on ebay. That doesn't make the market a pyramid, because those things have value outside of the market itself, and can be transfered independently of the market place. On the other hand, in a pyramind scheme, the items traded generally have all of their value because of the scheme itself, not because of their value to the outside world, and access to liquidity is not independent of the people who sold you the item.

      ... as is the case with most shares as well (yes, some companies do have share buyback programs, but these are the exception, rather than the rule...).

      This is simply false. Shareholders not only control the company, determine who gets serves on the board, and other items of fiscal policy, but they have very well-defined avenues of legal recourse. Not only that, but the company itself has no control over the valuation of its stock other than how it presents its performance to the outside world. Which once again, is strictly regulated. Once again, you may have issue with the way that the stock market works, but it is clearly different than the way that a pyramid scheme operates. TFA claims that all access to valuation is controlled (and manipulated) by the people at the top to their financial gain, and the detriment of others, and you can make snide comments about how the stock market operates, but it does clearly operate in a manner different than that of a Ponzi scheme.

    12. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by RattFink · · Score: 1
      What makes second life, or any other currency, any different?

      Two things,

      1. The US has a fricking huge military to back it up. While it's certainly not self sustaining now it really doesn't need to be. But if it ever came to the point where they had to be, leveraging the military it could just take what it needs to become that. Second life on the other hand is largely at the whim of their suppliers. If their power company suddenly decides that they don't want to serve them any more they are SOL and the economy collapses. Disgruntled employee destroy a single database the economy collapses.
      2. The US dollar has 70 or so year track record of being accepted regardless of it's age of the money or the owner's citizenship. I really doubt that my money will will still be in Second life the time I played it for 2 months in 2003.
      --
      "I don't necessarily agree with everything I say." - Marshall McLuhan
    13. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by mumblestheclown · · Score: 5, Insightful
      Day traders and the ignorant make the jobs of real investors much more difficult.

      Arguably the dumbest 'smart' statement I've seen on slashdot in a while. The reality is that without day traders and the ignorant, things like heuristic trading schemes set up by large investment banks would be far less profitable. Real investors LOVE day traders and the ignorant, as they are the ones who are giving them money.

    14. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by vertinox · · Score: 1

      Except that if you rely on luck for your stock picking, you really need to get out of the market. No, really. Day traders and the ignorant make the jobs of real investors much more difficult. Not impossible, and really not even less profitable, just more difficult.

      Except that is how the market works now. Apple's stock just dropped like a rock right after they announced their quarterly earnings and they have the highest earning yet. What gives!

      Of course... Apple tends to follow a general pattern in which it spikes right after Steve gives a keynote, but what if Steve dies or gets booted from the company?

      I'm sure it would devastate the stock price and that is pure luck of the matter unless you happen to be in the know of Steve's condition.

      Sure it sucks for long term investors, but the vampires are out in force on the stock market with pump and dump schemes and hardly anyone holds on to long term investments anymore in the technology center.*

      *Except for Google and Oil companies.... My suggestion for long term is to buy IRBT when the robot bubble hits around 2010 ;)

      --
      "I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
      -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
    15. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by UbuntuDupe · · Score: 5, Informative

      On the other hand, if you do your research, long term investing in well run businesses with good financials has far less risk and higher return than almost anything else you can do with your money.

      Actually, that's about as wasteful as day trading. Don't bother figuring out which company is good or bad. Other people are already doing that in an attempt to appropriate value the stocks. It's not enough to know which businesses are good; you have to know which ones are good relative to the price their stock is selling for, which is a much, much, much more difficult problem.

      The alternative? Buy an index fund. They simply track the relevant broad market (large cap, small cap, foreign, bond, whatever). They don't have to pay for research and they don't rely on a manager's hunches.

      No, this isn't sarcasm. Anyone not trying to sell you on a manager's stock picking ability will tell you the exact same thing. Slate has a great series going on now detailing this: see here.

    16. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      No, because the value of a company's stock is based on real assets, liabilities, and income: all of which are easily translatable to real money, and which commonly pay cash dividends.

      Thats right. And thats also why I'm putting all my money in Enron!!!! Errr....umm.....you know what...nevermind.

    17. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by KDR_11k · · Score: 1

      Now let's apply that to a downloadable content service that uses DRM to prevent resale.

      Also, don't you have to pass real assets onto some sucker to get your money, too?

      --
      Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
    18. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by UbuntuDupe · · Score: 3, Informative

      This is an important issue that's kept my attention. How do I know my dollar will keep any value? Why do people value dollars? I've spent a lot of time researching this question, and quite frankly, monetary theory will drive anyone insane because of the intricacies involved in thinking about money. There's no limit to the number of crank theories about money (social credit, Freigeld, bimetallism, gold bugs) that it's hard to even know if the Federal Reserve is not itself based on a shoddy theory.

      You are correct in at least one respect: if you ask anyone why they accept dollars as payment, they answer is always: "because other people will take it as payment". But isn't this fundamentally a house of cards? ("I thought you were watching the kids." "But I thought you were watching the kids!") With no *separate* reason to value them, we're forever exposed to the risk of the value quickly evaporating (cf. hyperinflation).

      However, based on what I've learned about the Fed, large financial institutions expect it to sell its assets for dollars if the dollar drops too low, in effect, propping it up that way. It's like this: let's say I get investors to give me 100 silver ounces and I issue them 100 notes redeemable for a silver ounce (ozAg). But then, let's assume I suspend convertibility on demand. Can the notes still have value? Yes, if people expect me to buy them back. Let's say on the market, merchants start demanding more than one note for an ozAg. Well, then I can dump my ozAg's on the market at the prevailing price. If the price of an ozAg on the market stubbornly refuses to return to exactly one note, then I can buy back all the notes, and keep the extra silver as a profit. And merchants won't let that happen.

      So yes, it's possible for dollars to have value, even if they're "unbacked" like in the above, as long as people expect the central bank to do what's necessary to keep its value up. Once that stops ... well, then we're screwed.

    19. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by h2g2bob · · Score: 1

      Tell that to SCO

    20. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Hassman · · Score: 1

      Stocks are like baseball cards: pieces of paper with collector's value.

      ...said the man who doesn't understand the stock market or how it drives the economy, and how the economy drives the market.
      --
      -Mark
      Dovie'andi se tovya sagain.
    21. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Svartalf · · Score: 1
      No, because the value of a company's stock is based on real assets, liabilities, and income: all of which are easily translatable to real money, and which commonly pay cash dividends.


      Heh. That's RICH.

      Stock valuation might be based on that if you're talking IBM or GE, but unless it's one of the stocks on QQQ or one of the NYSE blue chips, you're not investing against that- and the valuation is based on a lot of things utterly unrelated to the things you mention. Working the stock market (or any securities market, for that matter...) you're purely gambling on the valuation going up (Going long...) or going down (Shorting a stock...). And Second Life is a LOT like the Stock Market- a lot more than you think. In fact, most of the money in the stock market is made precisely the way you describe making money out of Second Life or in playing games like Arbitrage right at the moment.
      --
      I am not merely a "consumer" or a "taxpayer". I am a Citizen of the State of Texas
    22. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by tentimestwenty · · Score: 0, Troll

      Roughly speaking, a Ponzi scheme is one in which the perpetrators make false claims in order to lure investors. Once they have some investors coming in, they begin to pay back the earliest investors in order to create hype and garner more investors. People make money in ponzi schemes, but only by being at the top of the pyramid. So, you mean like the stock market?
    23. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by MicktheMech · · Score: 2, Interesting

      This is absolutely false. The stock markets (at least in developed countries) are efficient, so the share price is a good estimate of the company's value. There are many ways to value a company, it's more an art than a science. However, it's generally agreed that the value is the sum of discounted future cash flows. So, while income and book value do contribute to the estimation of those cash flows they aren't the only drivers behind share price. The price a stock is trading at is then basically an average of analysts' estimates of the company's value.

      If a company is not paying dividends there will still be future cash flows, since every company will eventually either start paying dividends or it will be bought out. Assuming the company is earning a reasonable return on retained earnings (i.e. the market rate), shareholders should theoretically be indifferent whether the company pays dividends now since that cash will be as valuable to them when they get it as it is today.

    24. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by ArsenneLupin · · Score: 2

      Okay, I realize that you are simply making snide comments about the value of traditional investment vehicles,

      Well put. Actually, I was just trying to make a first post. Of course, once the people took that FP seriously, it was very hard to resist the temptation and run with it... ;-)

      ... in the article, which you seem to not have read or are ignoring altogether. Well, if I had read the article, I would have been unable to get FP.

      That being said...:

      Roughly speaking, a Ponzi scheme is one in which the perpetrators make false claims in order to lure investors. Well, that also happens in the stock market, see the recent article about spam-based pump & dump schemes.

      This is simply false. Shareholders not only control the company, determine who gets serves on the board, ... Correction: majority shareholders control the company. Small-time investors are out of luck most of the time. And yes, the larger investors are in a perfect position to fleece the smaller ones.

      ...but they have very well-defined avenues of legal recourse. True. However this only sticks for the most blatant cases of abuse (cooking the books, etc.).

      Not only that, but the company itself has no control over the valuation of its stock other than how it presents its performance to the outside world. If it has a stock-buyback program, it does.
    25. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by rlp · · Score: 4, Insightful

      >> Roughly speaking, a Ponzi scheme is one in which the perpetrators make false claims in
      >> order to lure investors. Once they have some investors coming in, they begin to pay back
      >> the earliest investors in order to create hype and garner more investors. People make
      >> money in ponzi schemes, but only by being at the top of the pyramid.

      > So, you mean like the stock market?

      No, more like 'Social Security'.

      --
      [Insert pithy quote here]
    26. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by SerpentMage · · Score: 1

      Ah yes pump and dump, hate those that do not allow the "real investor to make money". Come on give me a break. The stock market is about speculation.

      Also remember that the stock market is not about past earnings, but future earnings. It is about expectations.

      Now regarding Apple here are the details:

      * The Apple stock has been riding high and some took profit.
      * Apple is making record earnings, but only in iPods.
      * Computer sales slacked and underperformed meaning that Apple is largely a one trick pony show.

      Many were not happy that Apple is not more diverse. And this makes sense because iPods are increasingly under attack and thus Apple will have a harder time making future earnings. The iPhone is viewed by many as an over-priced, under-powered phone that cannot stand the competition from say Sony-Ericsson, Nokia, or Samsung.

      As an investor I would not be bullish on Apple, but rather quite bearish because I am thinking Steve Jobs luck is coming to an end. Though then again I am one of those what you call vampires...

      --

      "You can't make a race horse of a pig"
      "No," said Samuel, "but you can make very fast pig"
    27. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by TheWizardOfCheese · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The US Dollar isn't based on anything other than trust now - fiat money. What makes second life, or any other currency, any different?

      What are you talking about? Neither the article nor the post you replied to said anything about the value of the US dollar. The point is that if there were really a market for exchanging SSL and USD, as claimed, then there would be some price that represents the relative value of these two commodities that is "simply accepted", in your parlance. It doesn't matter what these values are "based on."

      You cannot hit the bid in signficant quantities, but you can lift the ask in any volume you like - showing that this "market" is a scam.
      --

      "The good reader is a rarer swan than the good writer."
    28. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by loafing_oaf · · Score: 1

      Doesn't the stock market need a healthy supply of gambling fools? The kind of people who buy or sell based on snippits in the morning news are the only reason the market moves. They're the ones that provide opportunities for the rest of us to buy undervalued shares, right?

      --
      Always someone has power over you. The thing to consider is this: Is the power good, or bad?
    29. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by archeopterix · · Score: 2, Informative
      So, you mean like the stock market?
      Yeah, like the stock market, only for all the people involved, not only the uneducated who decide to buy stock because it has grown 30 percent last month or because their barber told them to.
    30. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "No, because the value of a company's stock is based on real assets, liabilities, and income"
      In an ideal world the above would be correct, funny things is ideal world and real world have little to do with each other.

      Many stocks are based on perceived (or more accuratly hyped) value not real. Best example would be the dot com bubble

    31. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Socguy · · Score: 1
      Yes, but the author is claiming that this is a hybrid; a Ponzi scheme cloaked by a legitimate virtual world. Most all the in-game transactions are legitimate (albeit often risky) but only the top few can extract any real world profits in a large scale, reliable way. For the rest, no matter your in-game success, the in-game markets react and wipe out your value before you can extract any meaningful sum of real world dollars from the game. As for the people understanding: this article was written by a financial analyst and he was fooled; he had lots of in-game success then tried all sorts of things to get his money back out and finally discovered that he couldn't do it. If someone who makes their living from the financial sector is deceived, what chance do the rest of us have?

      ..."any other thing that may give money to the lucky" is legal, because it is sustainable due to losses other people make, and are fully aware of. Can't be true; even in a pyramid scheme everybody goes into it knowing that if they can't get anyone to follow they stand to lose their 'investment'. It's not enough to know that you may lose your shirt; if you win, you have to be able to collect everyone elses' shirts.
    32. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You really are dense aren't you? spam-based pump and dump schemes are not a problem with the market, they are a problem with people abusing the market. It is a case where the scammer spams to get people to purchase more of the stock, hence raising its value. Once the stock is high, the scammer(s) will dump their stock and make money at the expense of the spammed individuals. This sort of scheme was going on long before the internet and spam.

      As for shareholders interest in a company, there are ways to have an influence and it is not just through voting rights. They can also speak with their money and refuse to purchase more stock or sell stock. If smaller investors did this in big enough ways, they could make quite an impact. Companies that rely on consumers to create income can also be hurt by refusing to purchase their items, and this is something a disgruntled shareholder could do and with work induce others to do. Is it easy? No, but it is quite possible.

      There are also far more things then "cooking the books" that can get a company into trouble and it doesn't take much to do it. The SEC monitors the markets in the US and checks for any sort of suspicious trading. You can get into some serious trouble for insider trading (Martha Stewart comes to mind). Abuse of the system is not taken lightly. Backdating options, also a bad one. I really think you should read up more on the stock market.

      You mention stock buy-back. This is actually somewhat regulated as well, in large part to prevent abuse of the system. In all honesty, this probably has very little affect on the actual price of an individual stock and is fairly rare. Almost to the point that the GP is right. The only real affect on valuation of the stock is the performance shown to the outside world. Which brings me back to "cooking the books". Again, this isn't a market problem, it is people abusing the market.

    33. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by inviolet · · Score: 4, Insightful
      The US Dollar isn't based on anything other than trust now - fiat money. What makes second life, or any other currency, any different?

      True enough -- but it is trust in something that has a certain reliability. Anyone who accepts US dollars in exchange for real goods is trusting that the US government will behave a certain way. That's a reasonable article of trust -- it is not the act of faith that some imply it is.

      Trusting the government of Weimar Germany to behave similarly would be an unjustified act of faith.

      Same for US treasury bonds. The buyer of such bonds is trusting that the US government will not default on the necessary collection of taxes and repayment of mature bonds, and that the US economy will not crash bad enough to be unable to make such payments. That too is a justifiable act of trust.

      Of course we all disagree over just how justifiable that trust is. The world's collective estimation of our trustworthiness is expressed in the interest rate that bonds fetch on the open market. Trustworthy countries get to pay lower interest rates on their bonds; risky countries pay higher interest rates... just like any consumer loan.

      --
      FATMOUSE + YOU = FATMOUSE
    34. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Imsdal · · Score: 1
      Doesn't the stock market need a healthy supply of gambling fools? The kind of people who buy or sell based on snippits in the morning news are the only reason the market moves. They're the ones that provide opportunities for the rest of us to buy undervalued shares, right?

      Almost correct. The stock market need the gambling fools to trade, because that generates the fees they live off ("they" now being the stock exchanges and the investment bankers and brokers, not "the market", which is everyone).

      Roughly half the money from retail investors that feed the bankers come from trading, clearing and settlement fees. The other half come from "management fees" for mutual funds. As other posters have pointed out, buying and holding index funds is incredibly much better, at least in the medium and long run.

      Stock markets work, and they fulfil a very important role in modern society. Unfortunately, they also feed a lot of people who really doesn't add value to their clients ("Where are the customers' yachts?"). Even so, the net value is clearly positive.

    35. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by El+Cabri · · Score: 1, Insightful

      If it was the US military credibility that was reflected in the value of the US dollar, then right now it would take a thousand bucks to buy you a can of peanut butter. There is no reality in a world where the US would use force to secure the supplies that it currently imports and pays for in dollars. Currently the US military is not even capable of holding together Iraq, a purveyor of a fraction of its oil needs. Talk about coercing all the nations that have a trade excedent vis-a-vis the US to continue supplying our way of life for free, or in exchange of notoriously worthless greenish pieces of paper. There is by the way no unipolarity in force when big nations' fundamental interests are threatened : there are 7 to 10 nuclear powers on this earth, and many others could happen in short notice, like Japan or Germany, who run huge trade surpluses with the US.

      Quite the contrary : what holds the US dollar afloat is the vested interest of foreign nations in form of the value of the massive reserves of this currency that they hold. If the US dollar would be worthless, then these reserves would be worthless. If only the US political will would matter, then these reserves would be voided, since they constitue a huge IOU from the US to these nations that is going to be leveraged in the future. So it is the very sovereignty of these nations that gives value to the US currency.

      Think about what happens when you buy your first house : you get a house even though you can pay only a fraction of its value. The very reason that this can happen is that the people who can make it happen know that they can take the house away from you if you don't make good on the contract that binds you at that moment (your mortgage). If they know that you own such an arsenal as to make it impossible to take the house back from you, they wouldn't give you the house in the first place.

    36. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by vrmlguy · · Score: 1
      So yes, it's possible for dollars to have value, [...] as long as people expect the central bank to do what's necessary to keep its value up.

      Actually, it's quite possible for dollars to have value, even in the complete absence of a central bank. See this article: http://www.mises.org/fullstory.aspx?control=1595

      --
      Nothing for 6-digit uids?
    37. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by homer_s · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The problem goes back to something having inherent value vs some thing that does not have inherent value.
      In a barter system, there is no question of valuation because whatever you are bartering (wheat for beef) has value to you. You don't care if the market for wheat collapses the next day, because the wheat has inherent value to you.

      The problem is that bartering does not work for the number of products (and services) people want. So, you need a product to *represent* value - gold, silver, cigarrates, money, etc. It is important to understand that this product does not need to have inherent value - it only represents value.

      Say we agree that plain white paper will be the mechanism by which value will be represented. The problem is that while some people work hard to create products with inherent value, I might just print plain white paper. This does two things:
      1. I get to make 'money' without working as hard as you, which is not a problem in itself.
      2. I dilute the value of plain white paper thereby indirectly stealing from you (this is called inflation).

      This is why gold or any other rare commodity is a good currency (but not perfect like barter). I just cannot do make tons of gold and dilute the value - I have to do real work to mine the gold. The moment someone figures out a way to create tons of gold, it will not be a good currency.

      The problem with fiat money is that the govt. can print it (or rearrange electrons) at will and steal money from you indirectly. The financial institutions (who you say will 'prop up' the dollar) always want more money pumped created so they can lend it out and make more money.

    38. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Whoever modded that comment troll MUST read Milton Friedman.

    39. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by j-pimp · · Score: 1

      Day trading is gambling; therefore it should be illegal everywhere gambling is illegal. Even worse: You know all those penny stock spam mails you get? They won't stop until day trading becomes illegal.

      Ok so I can't sell a stock I bought the same day? What if I honestly intended to hold onto it, but its value happened to collapse later that day due to some scandal coming to light. I can't profit by predicting human behavior accurately? How is day trading any more or less like gambling than long term investing or starting a business?

      Daytrading involves guessing at the future market value of a stock based on predicted announcements, well established patterns of human behavior in regards to the stock market and the ability to be able to buy and sell large amounts of stock quickly. Long term trading places more emphasis on auctual financials, but is still dealing with the same fiat value of part of a company.

      Like gambling, the stock market involves guessing at a system where you have imperfect information and limited control of the outcome. However, this is no different for day trading or long term investing.

      Now there are many stupid investors out there, as there are many bad programmers. However, they must be granted self determination and be allowed to cause harm to themselves. When they realize there stupidity, they can then educatre themselves.

      --
      --- Justin Dearing http://www.justaprogrammer.net/ We're just programmers.
    40. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by KDR_11k · · Score: 1

      Second life property equates to server space or instances of copyrighted material.

      --
      Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
    41. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by brkello · · Score: 1

      That and the US dollar is backed by the US Government and its financial institutions. I have a lot more faith in that than in Second Life...which only seems good for generating hype.

      --
      Support a great indie game: http://www.abaddon360.com
    42. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by UbuntuDupe · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I actually used to agree with all of that 100%, but over time, I've had to re-evaluate it based on new perspectives, so maybe you can help satisfy my concerns.

      It's true that the Fed can print money without having extra assets to back it up, thus devaluing it. But as long as people *expect* this to happen, interest rates will be such that by holding your money in a money market account, it will grow and erase this effect, right?

      And again, I'm not trying to justify government control of the money supply. I'm just saying: is what you're describing really one of the impacts of fiat currency?

      The financial institutions (who you say will 'prop up' the dollar) always want more money pumped created so they can lend it out and make more money.

      Well, I was saying the Fed, not financial institutions in general, does this. And it does it by having real assets to back the money. If its value falls farther than justified by the Fed's holdings, they can sell assets to restore its price. But the *expectation* that it will do this typcially suffices to prevent excessive inflation.

      Moreover, I'm not sure financial institutions care one way or the other. They care about profit. Having more money to lend doesn't necessarily help them; keep in mind they have to pay more interest to depositors.

      Finally, if the risk-free interest rate really does persistently stay below the "true" inflation rate, can't that be arbitraged away? Say, someone holds a basket of commodities that are "really" inflating instead of lending it out. That should keep the risk-free rate above inflation, yes yes?

      I will agree with you that most of the "problems" with a gold standard are due more to stupid decisions people make while on a gold standard (fixed mortgages with no pre-payment option, anyone?), but I think you could say the same thing about fiat currency!

    43. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by tkrotchko · · Score: 1

      "What makes second life, or any other currency, any different?"

      Go down to your local 7-11 with second life money and let me know how that works out buying a slurpee and chili dog...

      --
      You were mistaken. Which is odd, since memory shouldn't be a problem for you
    44. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by CreatureComfort · · Score: 0, Flamebait


      Wrong. Well, partially.

      Day traders and the ignorant lead to a much higher volatility, lower medium term predictability, and valuations that have no backing in reality in the market. The only people that make money off of day traders are other day traders, like large banks and trading firms that use heuristic schemes. To make money off the day traders you must either 1) rely on luck, or 2) be able to invest such large amounts that getting in on a small swing in the direction you are betting nets big profits, even if you miss the peak in the swing. But either way it is much more of a gamble than a good long term investing strategy based on real viability and growth of a company. Day trading is almost by definition gambling. You buy or sell a stock betting on which way you think a large amount of investment money is going to move based on short term announcements. You are basically trying to guess how other people are going to react. It can be very profitable, that is why the large firms are getting into it, and in a much more comprehensive way than you average small investor, but it is still risky.

      Real investors look at the market cap, business conditions, income and expense trends, etc. of a company to help determine if it is going to have growth over a longer time span. As one of the other replies to my parent post pointed out, Apple stock is high volatility in daily trading due mainly to day traders and the ignorant. Investors, myself included, pay almost no attention to the daily, or even hourly, swings based on whether Steve Jobs said this, or some analyst said that. Now speculations on Jobs SEC investigation and possible ouster, and both the immediate and long term effects they might have on the company's profitability and growth are of extreme interest to real investors. I still haven't decided if I'm going to sell AAPL, or not, but I am in no way going to base my decision on today's market swings, even though many day traders, including large firms, may make or lose a bundle on them before market close. Of course, that not to say that when I do decide to buy a stock, I'll try to do so on downswing, or sell it on an upswing, but the basic decision on what to buy or sell is based on a lot longer time frame. Almost all of my stocks I keep for a minimum of six months, and most I've had for over 5 years.

      --
      "Unheard of means only it's undreamed of yet,
      Impossible means not yet done." ~~ Julia Ecklar
    45. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by zrobotics · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "The financial institutions (who you say will 'prop up' the dollar) always want more money pumped created so they can lend it out and make more money"

      This is pretty much flat-out untrue. Financial institutions (e.g. banks) don't wait for the government to print more money so they can lend it out. While the U.S. government does print new money, most of the 'new' money that enters the economy is created by banks. Average Joe decides to buy a house, so he goes to the bank. The bank loans him money, and Joe buys his house. Wham! New money. That money didn't exist before, the bank just gave him money drawn from other people's accounts. So, while the bank is out this amount of money until Joe repays his loan, the bank doesn't tell the account holders that their money isn't in the bank, they need to wait for Joe's loan to be repaid. The bank simple hands them money out of the hard currency it has on hand. This effect is much more significant when banks loan large amounts of money to investors/corporations to create new businesses or expand existing ones. So, while the government does create some new money each year, most of the new dollars pumped into the economy come from banks.

    46. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by hazem · · Score: 1

      ...said the man who doesn't understand the stock market or how it drives the economy, and how the economy drives the market.

      So please explain how "pump and dump" (http://it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/01/21/20 29210) via spam will increase a company's stock value.

      Did the spam somehow suddenly increase the value of the company's assets, liabiliies, and income?
      Look at Enron. The day before the scandal happened the stock value was high. Not much after, it was worth less than a dollar. Did the actual value of the company's assets change in that short period? If the later price is "correct" then why was the price so high for so long? If the former price, then why did it drop so much?

      The crash of the Thai Bhat is similar... but without an underlying scandal.

      The financial markets, for all their high-paid analysts and smart people, are really fickle, ruled by the whim and fancy of investors and by herd mentality.

    47. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by homer_s · · Score: 1

      Wham!New money. That money didn't exist before, the bank just gave him money drawn from other people's accounts.

      So which is it - new money or money that existed before in other people's accounts?

      I did not say 'Banks *need* new money created by the govt. to lend it' - they can and do lend out prev existing money. But, they do lend out money by borrowing it from the Fed (which creates it out of thin air) and that is much easier to get than competing for people's wealth in the open market.

    48. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by mattpalmer1086 · · Score: 1

      Almost. Banks don't lend money out of the hard cash they hold. In fact, depending on what the central banks allow, they can lend out, say, 10 times the amount of the "hard cash" they have on deposit. As you say, this creates money in the economy (most of which is paid back with interest through value generated elsewhere in the economy).

    49. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by CreatureComfort · · Score: 1


      I actually agree almost completely with you. The research I mention is precisely to determine which companies are good relative to the price their stock is selling for and which of the ones I own are now over valued and need to be let go. And yes, it is a much, much more difficult problem, especially since most of the "value" in a company these days is based on future expectations, not in real world, hard assets, but it is not an impossible task.

      Also, Index funds are great. I have a large percentage of my portfolio in various ones, both domestic and foreign, but I do keep a percentage for individual company investing based on companies that I believe are going to do very well, even if their broader market may not look so good.

      --
      "Unheard of means only it's undreamed of yet,
      Impossible means not yet done." ~~ Julia Ecklar
    50. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by hazem · · Score: 1

      If a company is not paying dividends there will still be future cash flows, since every company will eventually either start paying dividends or it will be bought out.

      Most businesses end in bankruptcy. Once creditors are paid and assets are liquidated, the cash flow to investors is pretty negligible.

    51. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by FallLine · · Score: 1
      Not for a long time. Most do not pay dividends, and their value has little relation to any actual assets a company might have.
      Most people aren't buying companies for their assets. A contract cleaning company, for instance, may have virtually no virtually assets what to speak of, but may well have 300M/year in earnings. What most investors care about are future (discounted) cash flows. You may think that certain stocks are over-valued, but that is a wholly different debate.

      In any event, I would not want a company that I've invested in to pay dividends if they could re-invest that money at a higher rate of return than what I could otherwise obtain in the market (especially after taxes are taken into account). Most small cap, mid cap, and even many large cap firms can re-invest most of their earnings at a higher rate of return (relative to its risk).

      Stocks are like baseball cards: pieces of paper with collector's value.
      Everything is like baseball cards--there is no store of value that guarantees that you'll be able to buy a full basket of goods tomorrow. This is particularly true with US dollars and other currencies (we no longer have a "gold standard" or anything like it). A pound of gold 10 years from now may buy 1/2 as much bread as it did today. Ok, so perhaps you might argue that there is some inherent store of value if you own, say, a brick of gold (you could pound it into jewellery for family, use it for fillings, etc... pretty crummy), but its relative value is far from assured. The biggest difference is in the levels of volatility and liquidity.

      What's more, the same argument can be made for most stocks. If I own 10% of Microsoft's common stock, then I own 3.5 billion dollars in cash at least (last I checked), 10% of their IP (whatever that might be worth), cash flow from contracts, etc. These are real values. Of course, if I purchased Microsoft's stock today I'd be paying a very significant premium for its percieved value in the future... but the same is basically true of every investment (albeit to a lesser degree). If you buy a plot of land, you are paying a premium for the lands' future value whether you know it or not...you're not just buying it for yourself and that's it. Ultimately you want to sell it. Even if you're hoping to, say, grow crops on the land, something bad could happen several years down the road....
    52. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by ChronosWS · · Score: 1

      About the same as going down there and buying one with currency from Austria. Which tells you absolutely nothing.

    53. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by c6gunner · · Score: 1
      If it was the US military credibility that was reflected in the value of the US dollar, then right now it would take a thousand bucks to buy you a can of peanut butter. There is no reality in a world where the US would use force to secure the supplies that it currently imports and pays for in dollars. Currently the US military is not even capable of holding together Iraq, a purveyor of a fraction of its oil needs.
      Don't be silly. No politician is afraid that some foreign military is going to come in and "hold together" their country for them. The threat from a military comes from it's ability to destroy, not re-build. And if you or anyone else thinks that the US mil has lost it's ability to destroy...well, we must not be living in the same world.
    54. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by JeffSh · · Score: 1

      Thank you for your thoughtful posts, they were very interesting and informative.

      -Jeff

    55. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by nine-times · · Score: 1
      The US Dollar isn't based on anything other than trust now... What makes second life [currency] any different?

      I think you answered your own question: trust. It's something that Second Life money doesn't have.

      People trust US currency and will take it in exchange for goods and services. Most people do not trust Second Life money/goods/services, and will not exchange real money, goods, or services for those.

      Oh, yes, I do know that you can exchange Second Life money for real money, but you can't take your Second Life money down the street to your real-life store and spend it. You can't just exchange Second Life money at airports and hotels. Essentially, if you ignore the fact that Second Life is a fake place-- that still makes its money, at most, on par with Disney dollars.

      Or lets give another example: let's say I instituted new "nine-times dollars", which were hand-drawn by me, and allowed my kids to use that money to "buy" things from me. If they wanted a candy bar, that would cost 1 nine-times dollar. Let's say I even instituted an "exchange rate" within my house where 75 US cents = 1 nine-times dollar. OK, that's great. Now, is that "real money"? I'd say no.

      And yes, it is largely an issue of trust, but it still results in it being impractical for private individuals to go around making up money.

    56. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      Ok so I can't sell a stock I bought the same day?
      Feel free, but I think stocks should represent *actual* ownership of a company, for good and for bad. Just because you sold your interest in the company should not transfer liability for impropriety that occurred during your ownership. If the company is found guilty of crime X while you owned 1000 shares, you should be responsible for serving 1000 shares worth of the collective jail time assigned to the executives, board members and share owners. And if you sold it after learning of the crime and you didn't disclose that information, it should be an additional felony charge: fraud.
    57. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by FallLine · · Score: 4, Insightful
      So please explain how "pump and dump" (http://it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/01/21/20 29210) via spam will increase a company's stock value.

      Did the spam somehow suddenly increase the value of the company's assets, liabiliies, and income?
      Uh, these pump and dump schemes that the spammers orchestrated all targeted OTC/Pink Sheet stocks. In other words, the average price per share was only about 60 cents and the average number of shares traded in a day was only about 2K-3K. In other words, in a given day only about $1800 was trading hands with these stocks. All these spammers need to do is convince a very small number of unsophisticated people, a couple dozen tops or just %.001 of their spam recipients, to drive the stock price up. They could never work these in more expensive and non-thinly traded stocks. Similar scams are conducted all the time with physical goods and services as well.

      Look at Enron. The day before the scandal happened the stock value was high. Not much after, it was worth less than a dollar. Did the actual value of the company's assets change in that short period? If the later price is "correct" then why was the price so high for so long? If the former price, then why did it drop so much?
      Investors can be stupid and investors can be lied to. That does not make the entire pursuit worthless, nor does it mean that we have a better system. Hwang Woo-suk, the Korean scientist the forged his stem cell work, was payed very well, given a lot of funding, published in major journals, given academic support, and more.... up until the revelation that he was forging his work. So does this mean science is bad? No. It means that people are people and any human system is bound to have liars, frauds, crooks, etc. The trick is to pursue them to keep the great majority honest.

      The financial markets, for all their high-paid analysts and smart people, are really fickle, ruled by the whim and fancy of investors and by herd mentality.
      I wouldn't completely disagree with you here, but all institutions have the same kind of problems as they're staffed by people. We don't have a better alternative. It's better to allow people to under and over-react than to not allow them to react at all. In general the market prices things fairly efficiently -- the fact that it is very hard to beat the market consistently demonstrates this fact.
    58. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Snowmit · · Score: 2, Funny

      Yeah, like the stock market, only for all the people involved, not only the uneducated who decide to buy stock because it has grown 30 percent last month or because their barber told them to.

      But... my barber is wealthy...

      --
      I have a lot of opinions about Cyborgs and Architects
    59. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by homer_s · · Score: 1

      It's true that the Fed can print money without having extra assets to back it up, thus devaluing it. But as long as people *expect* this to happen, interest rates will be such that by holding your money in a money market account, it will grow and erase this effect, right?

      I think it is fair to reduce the question to 'so what if the purchasing power of a dollar halves; as long as everyone has twice the dollars'.

      Well, could you possibly have had twice the dollars without the purchasing power halving? (or the same amount of dollars that buys twice more)? You are looking at the final result and saying "well, everything was a wash" without considering that people might have been better off without inflation eating into their wealth.

      Here are three scenarios (the second one is what you are reffering to):

      1.The total wealth in a system is X and it is being represented by $10. Each dollar represents X/10 "value".
      The govt prints $10 and the wealth stays at X; each dollar now represents X/20 "value".
      This is inflation,etc,etc..

      2.The total wealth in a system is X and it is being represented by $10. Each dollar represents X/10 "value".
      New wealth of X is created
      The govt prints $10; each dollar now represents 2X/20 == X/10 "value".
      Yay, there is no effect from inflation!! Everything has been factored in.

      3.The total wealth in a system is X and it is being represented by $10. Each dollar represents X/10 "value".
      New wealth of X is created
      The govt DOES NOT print $10; each dollar now represents 2X/10 = X/5 "value".
      The currency reflects the increase in wealth and people's purchasing power is increased.

      My point was that (3) is the correct way things should work and apart from barter, the only way to get to 3 is through a gold currency.

      If you get a chance, read how the roman emperors (Diocletian for one) reduced the % of silver in their coins and how that created inflation - that will make it easier to understand what inflation is (it is not a rise in prices as every "economist" says) - it is and always was a govt phenomenon.

    60. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by El+Cabri · · Score: 2

      And after we have "destroyed", as you say (are you 13 years old or 12 ?), how exactly is it that we get our iPods/beamers/cheap clothes ? I mean to produce these things you need factories, a functionning society, shipping routes, etc... So we're back to what I've said : we get cheap imports willingly produced and shipped by foreign nations, not out of fear that we would misbehave, but out of conviction that we won't (or that we cannot)

    61. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by UbuntuDupe · · Score: 1

      Okay, but how do you know that printing the money puts you in 1) rather than 2)? And how do you know that not printing money would lead to 3)? Before you balk at the idea of a rigidly fixed money supply with increasing total wealth not increasing the value of a dollar, think about it this way:

      If the number of gold dollars in existence becomes small relative to the instances of exchange, it becomes inconvenient to use it as money. (Think about what it would be like in the extreme case where, e.g., someone will ONLY accept rare baseball cards as payment.) That diminishes the network effect that makes something valuable as money, which in turn decreases the premium attaching to it due to its additional use as money. Thus, the money falls in value just the same relative to total wealth and people start trading in, e.g. tungsten.

      So it's not obvious to me why you'd have the increasing wealth along with increasing dollar value (scenario 3).

    62. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by element-o.p. · · Score: 1
      No, because the value of a company's stock is based on real assets, liabilities, and income: all of which are easily translatable to real money, and which commonly pay cash dividends.

      Can you say "dot com bust" :P

      A lot of those stocks were highly valued even though the only "assets" they had were vaporware.
      --
      MCSE? No, sir...I don't do Windows. Yes, I am an idealist. What's your point?
    63. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by alienmole · · Score: 1
      The moment someone figures out a way to create tons of gold, it will not be a good currency.

      That depends on whether the person who figures it out decides to reveal his discovery, or carefully profit from it instead.

      Oops, I've said too much...

    64. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by localman · · Score: 1

      the items being traded have value outside of the system itself

      But do stocks have value "outside the system itself"? Where is "outside the system" of the stock market? I own stock, and I don't doubt that it is part of our functioning economy, but if I walk out of our economy, and try to pass off my paperwork to people who don't take part in our economy, they wouldn't be any more valuable than second-life items. And yes, regulation and legal recourse. Early on I think the idea of owning part of the company was important, but it is rarely the liquidity of a company that drives prices today. I think the stock market works simply because it is so well agreed upon and it spans such a large number of people that there practially is no "outside the system". It's not a real Ponzi scheme, per se, but somehing is weird because the price is dictated by the belief that someone in the future will pay more for the item than you will now, and if you follow that through it is circular, isn't it?

      Cheers.

    65. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by alienmole · · Score: 1

      Hahaha. Luckily, Anonymous Cowards don't make the rules. A major purpose of companies is to legally shield owners from such liabilities. What you're really saying is that you don't think companies should exist, that everything should be partnerships.

    66. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by mstahl · · Score: 1

      You're writing under the assumption that a legal distinction between ordinary short-term investment and "day trading" can easily be made. I'm not so sure that's reasonable.

    67. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by node+3 · · Score: 1
      No, because the value of a company's stock is based on real assets, liabilities, and income
      No, it's not. It's based on what people will pay for the stock. Those things might help mitigate the risk (at worst, if the company completely folds, you *might* get some of that money back via selling off the company), but you aren't guaranteed to be able to recover even 1 cent of the money you put into the stock.

      The stock market is a pyramid scheme, although I'd have gone further and said money itself is a pyramid scheme. It's only valuable so long as people keep pretending it is. Paper money has very little inherent value.

      Although up to this point, we've been playing loose with the term "pyramid scheme". The problem with a pyramid scheme is that no wealth is created, it's just transferred. That's why the people at the bottom get screwed. That happens in the real economy, as well. The difference is that in the real economy, wealth *is* created, and the people at the bottom aren't *completely* screwed, but do get to keep some small portion of the wealth they create.

      The same is true of Second Life. There, people create wealth. I'm not familiar with the mechanics of the Second Life economy, but so long as goods (virtual, I assume, but perhaps people buy physical things via Second Life?) and services are provided, wealth is created, and the less like a pyramid scheme it is.

      I have no idea how hard it is to convert Linden Dollars into US Dollars, but even if it's impossible, that alone isn't what makes something a pyramid scheme.
    68. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by UbuntuDupe · · Score: 1

      I don't believe in banning day trading, but let me take a stab at it:

      A person is day trading iff he buys and then sells a stock or bond within a month, more than three times in a 12-month period. Since a long-term investor will rarely see a reason to "change course" so quickly three times in a year, this captures all people we'd consider day traders and only has a very small fraction of false positives on long-term investors.

    69. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Brickwall · · Score: 1
      Not for a long time. Most do not pay dividends, and their value has little relation to any actual assets a company might have.

      Er, if you take the time to read the business page of any reasonable newspaper, you will see a column on the stock page marked "Yield", which is the value of the dividend divided by the stock's current price, and from a quick glance I'd say 70% of the stocks have a figure listed. Some are quite small, admittedly, and I was looking at the Toronto Exchange; figures on the Nasdaq would probably be lower. But I believe a fair number of stocks on the NYSE pay dividends.

      --
      What was once true, is no longer so
    70. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by homer_s · · Score: 1

      Okay, but how do you know that printing the money puts you in 1) rather than 2)?

      I don't claim that - fiat money could lead to 1 or 2 or a scenario where wealth is lost due to war, famine, etc. Inflation does not reduce the total wealth in the system - it just transfers it arbitrarily to some beneficiary.

      And how do you know that not printing money would lead to 3)?

      I guess I should have had a 4:
      4.The total wealth in a system is X and it is being represented by $10. Each dollar represents X/10 "value".
      New wealth of X is NOTcreated
      The govt DOES NOT print $10; each dollar now represents X/10 = X/10 "value".
      The currency reflects the same wealth and people's purchasing power remains the same - which is correct because they did not create any wealth.

      and a 5:
      5.The total wealth in a system is X and it is being represented by $10. Each dollar represents X/10 "value".
      Due to war, natural disaster,etc X/2 wealth is destroyed.
      The govt DOES NOT print $10; each dollar now represents X/20 "value".
      The currency reflects the lost wealth and people's purchasing power goes down - which is correct because they lost wealth.

      Before you balk at the idea of a rigidly fixed money supply with increasing total wealth not increasing the value of a dollar
      It is not the "value" of a gold/silver/tungsten dollar that is the point - it is the value they represent.

      If the number of gold dollars in existence becomes small relative to the instances of exchange, it becomes inconvenient to use it as money. (Think about what it would be like in the extreme case where, e.g., someone will ONLY accept rare baseball cards as payment.) That diminishes the network effect that makes something valuable as money, which in turn decreases the premium attaching to it due to its additional use as money. Thus, the money falls in value just the same relative to total wealth and people start trading in, e.g. tungsten.

      That is the reason I said that barter is the perfect (but impractical system) with gold being the next best thing. This is also the reason everyone talks of a 'gold standard' and not a 'diamond standard' or a 'platinum standard'.
      The assumption (validated by centuries of experience) is that the production of gold, its properties, etc make it unique to be used as a currency.

      But assume that happens - I have all my wealth in gold, but due to its impracticality, everyone now trades in tungsten. Well, I made a bad decision in storing all my wealth as gold so now I lose a little bit (or a lot) of my wealth and transfer it to tungsten. But atleast I had control over it - if I had used better judgement, I could have avoided it. But in the case of fiat money, I don't have that choice - it is imposed on me with the threat of force.

    71. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by bogjobber · · Score: 1

      The difference is that the US dollar is backed by a much larger, more trustworthy organization. It is used as the de facto currency for a large percentage of the world. It is based on actual, tangible assets and production. Its value is not easily manipulated by a small group of people. It can be exchanged for other forms of currency or hard goods extremely quickly and without hassle.

    72. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by jcr · · Score: 1

      Day trading is gambling; therefore it should be illegal everywhere gambling is illegal.

      Well, thank goodness you're not in charge!

      When I go to sell shares that I've held for a period that people like you think is long enough to be morally acceptable, who do you think will buy them? Eliminate the day traders, and there's a lot less people to offer to buy or sell the shares I want to move. The more potential counterparties to every proposed transaction, the more liquidity is available in the market.

      Oh, and FYI: trading can be a gamble or it can be a wise investment over ANY time period. What makes the difference is whether you know anything about the company you're buying or selling shares in, or are just listening to the pundits in the echo chamber.

      -jcr

      --
      The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
    73. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just how do you plan on making a FP as a reply?

    74. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Pray tell, whence does the stock market take the money?

      Also only companies will hold shares for 80 years. Current advice is to invest in shares as soon as you can afford it which is roughly at age 30-35 when you find that there's some money left after paying all bills. Current advice is to sell when you retire in order to turn the shares into something more solid. That would be at age 60-65. 30-year brackets where share indices fell can be found.

    75. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Dutch+Gun · · Score: 1

      I'm not so sure... Any business-person worth his/her salt would gladly accept foreign payments given a significant demand from customers, although they might charge above a normal exchange rate to make up for the convenient of having to exchange the money. Stores near the Canadian/US border typically accept both US and Canadian currency (regardless of which side of the border they are on). There simply has to be enough demand for the exchange service, combined with a general trust of the economic stability of the currency's backer.

      http://www.smallbusinessbranding.com/647/us-pizza- franchise-accepts-payment-in-pesos-from-spanish-pa trons/

      My guess is that this is news because of the current illegal immigration debate. This kind of thing is already pretty common along our norther border.

      --
      Irony: Agile development has too much intertia to be abandoned now.
    76. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by JasonKChapman · · Score: 1
      No, because the value of a company's stock is based on real assets, liabilities, and income

      That's only true at liquidation time. At any other time, the value of a company's stock is equal to its price: whatever the market is willing to pay for it. For the most part, that makes the stock market roughly equivalent to betting on the horses.

      --
      Sorry, I'm a writer. That makes you raw material.
    77. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by HomelessInLaJolla · · Score: 1

      > Roughly speaking, a Ponzi scheme is one in which the perpetrators make false claims in order to lure investors

      Social security? Unemployment? Car insurance? Casinos?

      --
      the NPG electrode was replaced with carbon blac
    78. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by ArsenneLupin · · Score: 1

      Just how do you plan on making a FP as a reply? I was talking about the root post of this thread of course, you numbnut. Which is indeed FP.
    79. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by WNight · · Score: 1

      It would be hard to beat the stock market if valuations were random as well.

      You know Dilbert on gift-certificates? "You exchange your money for something like money, but not money. It can't be used as many places, expires, etc"

      Stocks are to ownership of company value, what gift-certificates are to ownership of a product. Strictly theoretical.

      Until you've sold your share and have something tangible, it's only a promise to pay something at a later date. Unfortunately, your IOU is just one of millions, and in there with company debts, preferred IOUs, etc to be paid out. It's likely to be worth a lot less than you think all of a sudden.

      If instead you actually went to a company, totaled up their assets, bought a 10% share in these assets (with forced buyout, etc) you would then own 10% of these, and would get this off the top if the company went belly up. Your 10% stock ownership though would put you in a huge pool all fighting for the each-other's money. You'd be lucky to get a tenth of the pre-bankruptcy value.

      You can get rich in stocks, and baseball cards. To imply that this must prove their objective value is silly. Don't invest in a stock, invest in the market's valuation of a stock and keep an eye on your assumptions.

    80. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Estanislao+Mart�nez · · Score: 1

      Not for a long time. Most do not pay dividends, and their value has little relation to any actual assets a company might have.

      You are right about one thing: the value of a stock is not based on the value of the actual dividends it pays out. The whole point of the stock market is to finance economic growth, where "economic growth" means something like "people can now obtain goods and services that they couldn't obtain before." Thus, the valuation of a company is based on the expectation that it will be able to take part in such growth; i.e., the expectation that the company will in future make it possible for people to obtain goods they could not obtain before, either by making some goods cheaper than they are now, or by making new valuable goods that didn't exist before.

      Ponzi schemes and pyramids are set apart by the fact that they have zero chance of producing any economic growth; the wealth that goes into them is exactly the wealth that will come out of them, but in different pockets. The stock market allows you to profit from future economic growth in exchange for bearing the risk that the economic growth won't in fact occur.

    81. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      Eh. Yeah, we're definitely living on different planets. Let's start again:

      Hi I'm from Earth. Where are you from?

    82. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by hackingbear · · Score: 1

      although I'd have gone further and said money itself is a pyramid scheme. Absolutely agree! So please send in all your money! Human beings don't need truth, they need pretension.
    83. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by RattFink · · Score: 1
      If it was the US military credibility that was reflected in the value of the US dollar, then right now it would take a thousand bucks to buy you a can of peanut butter. There is no reality in a world where the US would use force to secure the supplies that it currently imports and pays for in dollars. Currently the US military is not even capable of holding together Iraq, a purveyor of a fraction of its oil needs.

      Regardless of the accuracy of the military having low credibility (which is shortsighted at best) you are comparing it to a computer game manufacturer with no military. Can it happen? Absolutely the reason it is not happening or have happened is that the US values the cooperation and trade with it's neighbors more then the short term gain of natural resources. Iraq could be fixed in a month if the government suddenly stopped caring about the people of the country and acted with an any means necessary mentality. Seriously how effective could car-bombs be if all of the cities were carpet bombed? The problem is we don't want that blood on our hands, which is a good thing if you ask me.

      --
      "I don't necessarily agree with everything I say." - Marshall McLuhan
    84. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Mr2001 · · Score: 1

      Also, don't you have to pass real assets onto some sucker to get your money, too? Depends on what you mean by "sucker". If someone is buying your assets just because they hope to resell them later at a higher price--to someone else who will also be buying them just to resell them at a higher price--then they're likely a sucker. Collectibles markets are full of suckers - remember Beanie Babies? You might buy a case of dolls for $10 each, expecting that someone will buy them for $20 each next month, but in the end they're still just dolls, and eventually the fact that most people have no use for dolls will catch up with you.

      But in most markets, the people buying your assets are doing it because they value the assets themselves, not because they hope to pass them on to someone else. You're not a sucker if you buy a sandwich because you're hungry, or a car because you need to drive somewhere.
      --
      Visual IRC: Fast. Powerful. Free.
    85. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by FallLine · · Score: 1
      It would be hard to beat the stock market if valuations were random as well.
      Valuations are not random. Clearly investors prefer revenue growth and earnings growth. If you were able to out predict actual performance (earnings/revenues) more accurately than the market over the long run, you would make a killing (presuming you have the funds and can diversify sufficiently). If it were totally random, we wouldn't need to make things like trading on insider information illegal.

      Stocks are to ownership of company value, what gift-certificates are to ownership of a product. Strictly theoretical.
      So is your paycheck and the cash in your wallet.

      Until you've sold your share and have something tangible, it's only a promise to pay something at a later date. Unfortunately, your IOU is just one of millions, and in there with company debts, preferred IOUs, etc to be paid out. It's likely to be worth a lot less than you think all of a sudden.
      All investments have some degree of risk involved if you ever plan on being able to exchange it for something else (e.g., cash) in the future. PERIOD. Yes, if certain companies were to be forced to cease operations the shareholders would have zero net equity, but this is not true of all stocks. It is more likely to happen with a stock (more risk), but you're not totally safe even if your park your money in a S&L account (or munipal bond... or even a t-bill -- though very unlikely to default).

      If instead you actually went to a company, totaled up their assets, bought a 10% share in these assets (with forced buyout, etc) you would then own 10% of these, and would get this off the top if the company went belly up. Your 10% stock ownership though would put you in a huge pool all fighting for the each-other's money. You'd be lucky to get a tenth of the pre-bankruptcy value.
      You can compute the actual value of your equity stake with a reasonable degree of accuracy. If you own 10% of the equity in a company with all common stock and no debt, then you do, in fact, own roughly 10% of the assets (and may actually be worth more once you've computed in IP, etc). I would be very happy to buy 10% of Microsoft's stock today for 3.5 billion even if the market value was there or lower (though I would not buy it at its current price). Yes, if you own 10% of a company with high debt, then actually own less than 10% of the assets and possibly even zilch. However, this value can be determined with some degree of accuracy if you know how to read the statements properly.

      You can get rich in stocks, and baseball cards. To imply that this must prove their objective value is silly. Don't invest in a stock, invest in the market's valuation of a stock and keep an eye on your assumptions.
      I'm not suggesting that you totally ignore the market, far from it. This same advice applies to any investment you would make though. If you're buying gold, you need to take into account the market value to unless your sole intent is to melt it down and make jewelry out of it (and even then....). The price you pay when you buy it factors in a certain speculative value and the price when you want to sell will as well. Of course the risk is higher with equity, but so is the potential/average payout. There is no such thing as absolutely no risk.

    86. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by FlipperPA · · Score: 1

      What a bunch of bologna. I have a hunch that Valleywag just consistently writes about Second Life to increase their page views so they get more for their advertising!

      Here's a more realistic rebuttal from an actual journalist, Mark Wallace:

      http://www.3pointd.com/20070124/sl-economy-not-qui te-examined-by-critic/

      Also, as the husband in the couple on the clip being shown on CNBC, I can say it's not a paid for informercial in any way. We were contact by Dan Leon of CNBC, they came to our house, and recorded our clip. Second Life obviously has a lot of buzz around it right now (yes, probably too much!), and CNBC is simply doing what's right for their ratings.

      Regards,

      -FlipperPA (last name in SL: Peregrine)

    87. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by anthony_dipierro · · Score: 1
      It's not enough to know which businesses are good; you have to know which ones are good relative to the price their stock is selling for, which is a much, much, much more difficult problem.

      The way I see it, it's actually easier. You don't have to waste time looking at financial reports and listening to conference calls, you just pick a stock that's unpopular for irrational reasons.

      The alternative? Buy an index fund.

      Here's another alternative - just randomly pick stuff. Index funds are too easily manipulated. When it is announced that a new stock is going to be added to an index, people go and buy up that stock, causing the index fund to pay a higher price.

      But you need the diversification? Eight stocks cut your risk by 81%. If you have the money and/or the time to invest in 8 stocks, there's little point in bothering with an index fund. Maybe if you want to invest in foreign issues, as they're expensive for the average person to invest in directly.

      Be sure to look into DRIPs and other direct investment programs too. DRIPs enable you to automatically invest dividends so you really can just buy it and forget about it; and direct investment programs can cut your commissions to zero in some cases.

    88. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by anthony_dipierro · · Score: 1
      A person is day trading iff he buys and then sells a stock or bond within a month, more than three times in a 12-month period. Since a long-term investor will rarely see a reason to "change course" so quickly three times in a year, this captures all people we'd consider day traders and only has a very small fraction of false positives on long-term investors.

      The SEC is a bit more lenient, but go figure, they've already defined a "pattern day trader". "A day trade is the purchase and sale (or short sale and purchase) of the same security on the same day in a single account." "If you day trade 4 or more times in 5 business days within a single account, you are a Pattern Day Trader." "Day Trading Accounts must maintain a minimum equity of $25,000."

      And no, I don't believe in banning day trading either. In fact, I once had my account designated as a pattern day trading account. Nowadays I tend to hold stocks a lot longer. I invest in companies pretty much solely for their long-term prospects (with long term meaning essentially forever), though I'm willing to dump them very quickly in a number of situations (if I believe I mis-evaluated them, if I find something better, if I want to take a tax loss, if I need to withdraw funds).

    89. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by patio11 · · Score: 1

      [quote]The US Dollar isn't based on anything other than trust now - fiat money. What makes second life, or any other currency, any different?[/quote]

      There is no structural difference between getting an IOU from a meth addict and buying a T-bill, but that doesn't mean they're exactly the same. Evaluating the true worth of fiat money* requires evaluating how much you trust the fiating body. There is also the wrinkle that dollars are widely distributed across the globe and often backed by a physical artifact. Linden dollars, on the other hand, are concentrated in a single data center and if it were to get hit by a meteor tomorrow, well, I hope they were better at running offsite backups than they were at guarding their assembled credit card information. You also can't crash the real world and make it impossible for people to spend dollars by writing a grey goo script, and that is, what, a monthly occurrence in Second Life?

      * Incidentally, to all folks who think returning to the gold standard is the answer to all our problems: as long as you have a government, all money will be fiat money, whether it is backed by a promised equivalence to a commodity or no. The reason? Governments can *break* their promises, and when they do guess who has the guns. And if you posit a worldwide catastrophic financial crash like a lot of survivalists do, promises wouldn't be worth a fig anyway. After a certain point you have to take things on faith. That knocking on your door doesn't have a gun hidden behind him ready to blow your head off. The bank down the street isn't going to collapse in the morning. The government is not going to suddenly start dishonoring T-bills. The United States will not break up in civil war. Could they all happen? Yeah, but if you act under the assumption they're going to happen you'll lead a fairly poor life.

    90. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by labnet · · Score: 1

      Hmmm. I think the parent poster is correct, in that the Banks create the money out of thin air. (fractional banking)
      Most countries have certain ratios that a bank must have assets backing loans.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Required_reserve_rati o

      That's why banks are VERY paranoid about short term runs on their money, as short term they are illiquid.
      Long term one hopes their assets secured against loans makes their balance sheet healthy; but with the proliferion of private equity, hedge funds, etc most people acknowledge that the global financial machine is extremely complex. So complex, as to not know how fragile or robust it is.
      Personally, I think asset inflation (private housing mainly inmost western countries), USA's huge debt (one day bond holders around the world will want their capital as well as interest) and medicare/aid liabilities, and private equities game of musical chairs (ie who is the last one holding the debt bag) are biggest problems facing the global economy.

      --
      46137
    91. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by WNight · · Score: 1

      Very few companies aren't in debt, it's inefficient to be sitting on a lot of money. That 10% of the assets will very rarely be worth the price you paid for 10% of the stock. When a company is this asset-rich it's an obvious buy, so the market corrects for capitalizations that are less than assets by the price rising. This means your average investor is very unlikely to find a stock that would be worth much after the bankruptcy of the parent company.

      You are right that there's risk everywhere, but usually there's just the risk that you might be stuck with something someone else wants. If you ignore being upside-down on a mortgage after the price drops, there's no real problem - you've still got the land. However, if your company tanks, your stock might get you nothing. Not just something nobody wants at that price, but nothing.

      There's a place for stock, as the way to capitalize large industry. But there's a downside, price manipulation is rampant. Stocks make money for some people, but on average an owner will lose in the long run while the market as a whole manages to climb.

      It's a risk I take, but in limited ways. Even if I loved a stock and was sure it was going to win (perpetual motion machine) I keep in mind that the current price can vary overnight on essentially no real change. Apple could announce the imminent release of the PerpetualMac "soon" and the price could flop. Of course, that's mostly not a bad thing but still important in the sense of liquidity, if not eventual price.

    92. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by KDR_11k · · Score: 1

      What if they value the virtual stuff sold in Second Life? AFAIK many people don't join the game to profit, many just buy the stuff they like because they think it's worth it.

      --
      Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
    93. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by FallLine · · Score: 1

      Very few companies aren't in debt, it's inefficient to be sitting on a lot of money.

      Almost all companies have very positive net equity and, if they don't, that usually suggests that the lenders have tremendous confidence in the company's continuing operations. What's more, you fail to acknowledge that many assets are non-cash-equivalents that generate revenue (i.e., real estate, bank loans, etc). What's more, few companies keep cash per se, they have it invested in short term / highly liquid assets which generate interest and/or appreciate. While cash and cash equivalents are non-optimal investments, many companies justifiably keep a good chunk of cash&equivalents on hand so that they can quickly acquire companies/technology/assets without having to leverage themselves further.

      That 10% of the assets will very rarely be worth the price you paid for 10% of the stock. When a company is this asset-rich it's an obvious buy, so the market corrects for capitalizations that are less than assets by the price rising. This means your average investor is very unlikely to find a stock that would be worth much after the bankruptcy of the parent company.

      You're missing the point. The real market value of the companies net assets are not why investors buy stocks, they buy them for their future cash flows. Without these, there'd be no reason to buy the stock at its supposed liquidation value. What it does do it help set some floor on market price. Furthermore, you'd be wrong to buy stocks just based on price/book ratio (even discounted) as these stocks tend to under-perform the market.

      You are right that there's risk everywhere, but usually there's just the risk that you might be stuck with something someone else wants. If you ignore being upside-down on a mortgage after the price drops, there's no real problem - you've still got the land. However, if your company tanks, your stock might get you nothing. Not just something nobody wants at that price, but nothing.

      Nonsense. Most people aren't just buying for the property to live there forever; they want and need the asset to at least hold its value. Still owning your land if you're upside down isn't going to do you a lot of good if you want to move, build a bigger house, take out a loan to send your kids to college, pay medical bills, start a business, etc. Also, the land itself has some "risk", there could be a lein on your land (that you don't know about), pollution, fire, the neighboor could turn into a ghetto, the government could decide to build a freeway next to your house, etc.

      Furthermore, people that don't live beyond their means need to put their money somewhere else after they've bought their house. If you want to save to pay for your kids' education, retirement, medical expenses, and other misc. expenses then you're going to have to find somewhere else to park your money: all of these expose you some degree of risk and merely saying that you can hold onto them is nonsense -- it won't pay the bills.

      There's a place for stock, as the way to capitalize large industry.

      Uh, stocks capitalize virtually all businesses, not just "large industry." (And even those few significant companies that aren't incorporated, i.e., sole proprietorships and partnerships, face the same kind of risks with respect to business risks, lenders, etc.) While startups, for instance, usually aren't listed on public stock exchanges, almost all of them (that really have a path to growth) are incorporated and have several groups of shareholders. If your beef is with public markets, you still can't just say it is only relevant to "large" industry as most early investors depend, whether directly or indirectly, on being able to sell to a public market to provide them liquidity and many startups depend on the infusion of cash from public equity markets to spur growth.

    94. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Mr.+Slippery · · Score: 1
      But I believe a fair number of stocks on the NYSE pay dividends.

      Can't speak to what happens in Canada, but in the U.S. around 45% of stocks pay dividends:

      In the broader market among all companies with at least $100-million in market value, about 45 percent pay a dividend, up from 39 percent six years ago, according to Zacks research. The larger the company, the more likely it is to pay a dividend.

      Less than half. Thus, most stocks do not pay dividends. (This is not even including many "micro-cap" or "nano-cap" stocks below $100 million; given the trend that smaller companies are less likely to pay dividends, including these would bring the average down even more.)

      --
      Tom Swiss | the infamous tms | my blog
      You cannot wash away blood with blood
    95. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by Cro+Magnon · · Score: 1
      Or lets give another example: let's say I instituted new "nine-times dollars", which were hand-drawn by me, and allowed my kids to use that money to "buy" things from me. If they wanted a candy bar, that would cost 1 nine-times dollar. Let's say I even instituted an "exchange rate" within my house where 75 US cents = 1 nine-times dollar. OK, that's great. Now, is that "real money"? I'd say no.


      I'd say, it depends. It certainly could be "real money" - as long as all transactions took place within your house. The problem is, you or your family couldn't leave the house and go to the nearest Quik-Trip and pay for that candy bar in "nine-times dollars". In contrast, American money is accepted world wide. It's not any more "real" than your money, but it's backed by the "full faith and credit" of the most powerful nation on earth, while your "currency" is backed by the resources of one /. poster.

      --
      Slow down, cowboy! It has been 4 hours since you last posted. You must wait another few hours.
    96. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by nine-times · · Score: 1
      The problem is, you or your family couldn't leave the house and go to the nearest Quik-Trip and pay for that candy bar in "nine-times dollars". In contrast, American money is accepted world wide... [snip]...it's backed by the "full faith and credit" of the most powerful nation on earth, while your "currency" is backed by the resources of one /. poster.

      My points exactly. Money is only "real" when it's valuable, and the only way money is valuable is if it's trusted and backed by someone with the resources to pay what you're claiming the money is worth.

    97. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by WNight · · Score: 1

      I understand that there's risk in everything, but different risks. You're looking at a house as an asset, realize that it's also a roof. It may be decomposable into house_price - house_maintenance + rental_savings, and thus be comparable to stocks, but it's unlikely to go away simply through being owned, whereas a stock will.

      Sure, for an investor, this all balanced out, that isn't your house so it's just income and expense. Just like those aren't your personal company assets, it's just a share of the books. So what's 'just another investment' for you isn't 'roof + investment' so trading one for the other doesn't work for someone who isn't in a position to rent out the house (ie, living in another).

      I'm not saying stocks are random, really. I'm just saying that they're so different that almost all other types of investments that to the average Joe, they might as well be. If you just buy stocks that look good on any one metric you will lose money to more efficient and smarter players. You might play an index position, but that's just more stock to cover for the liabilities of stock...

      You're playing the market in a general upward time. What if you invested in a DOW index fund in 1965 and wanted to cash out 20 years later? Or 1930 to 1990... See what I mean? I have friends buying $150k condos now worth $250 who think they're investment geniuses, even though they couldn't handle their mortgage if the interest rate climbs. They tell me how great real-estate is, as if it has no flaws. Nobody who owned through the 20% interest rates would ever say such a generic statement.

      Stocks are neat, but only as far as they go... Ditto real-estate, etc.

    98. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by FallLine · · Score: 1

      I understand that there's risk in everything, but different risks. You're looking at a house as an asset, realize that it's also a roof. It may be decomposable into house_price - house_maintenance + rental_savings, and thus be comparable to stocks, but it's unlikely to go away simply through being owned, whereas a stock will.

      My point is that you're overstating your case. The risk in housing in general is not as small as you'd like to think. Unless you assume that the individual is just buying the absolute minimum property/house they need to survive or that they couldn't have used those excess funds (by buying more house than they "need", making improvements, etc) better and that they never will need to sell the house to retire or cover other expenses, they are taking a very real risk. Most people in the US, at least, aren't so poor that they can only afford the minimum amount of shelter: they need somewhere else to invest their funds and much of that ends up in their house (which is more than they really "need") and necessarily in other places (e.g, t-bills, bank, bonds, various funds, etc). While I'd agree that there is greater volatility in stocks and a greater chance of losing your shirt, it'd be stupid to look housing as a relatively zero risk investment once you've gotten past a certain level of necessity (you also need to look at house pricing... sometimes you can buy too soon or in the wrong area and pay too big a premium).

      I'm not saying stocks are random, really. I'm just saying that they're so different that almost all other types of investments that to the average Joe, they might as well be.

      There is certainly more risk in equities than in most other investments, but you're stopping "other investments" at the someone's only and presumably very basic house so the apparent difference to you is much larger than it is in reality. Most people in the developed world can save and want to be able to cover costs from their savings eventually, so they need to invest somewhere so that they can spend later without losing out to inflation (at bare minimum) and hopefully appreciate. Almost none of these investments have such substantial inherent value that the average investor wouldn't need to worry if the market actually crashed. Having a roof over your head is important, but it alone won't pay for your education, retirement, taxes, etc.

      If you just buy stocks that look good on any one metric you will lose money to more efficient and smarter players. You might play an index position, but that's just more stock to cover for the liabilities of stock...

      I wouldn't say it's a certainty that you'd lose money, but you'd likely miss out on better investments. A decent index fund or mutual fund is more than just 1 more stock; they offer a great deal of diversification which dramatically reduces your risk and increases your liquidity.

      You're playing the market in a general upward time. What if you invested in a DOW index fund in 1965 and wanted to cash out 20 years later? Or 1930 to 1990... See what I mean?

      I'm not just talking about myself, but my parents and grandparents who have seen both boom and bust (although I did pretty well between 2000 & 2003). It'd be silly to invest wholly in an index that tries to mirror the DOW because of the lack of diversification (just 30 stocks and the way it is weighted).

      As for your examples, they're not illustrative of your presumed point.

      If you had invested in an index that mirrors the DJIA between 1930 and 1990 (a relative low), your investment would still have appreciated by roughly 1000% . In other words, if you had invested 10K in 1930, it would have been worth roughly 100K in 1990 and you would have received about 100K in dividends (avg dividend yield ~4-5%). What's more, if you had re-invested that cash back into the DJIA, those payouts would have been worth

    99. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by WNight · · Score: 1

      My point is that you're overstating your case.

      I don't mean to, as much as to point out what seems to be your overstatement.

      I also do mean "publicly traded stock markets and related media frenzy" when I say "Stocks", as it is what I feel most people would refer to as the "Stock Market".

      I'm advocating a balanced point of view (portfolio). Most people shouldn't have all their money in stocks, just like they shouldn't have have all their net worth invested in their home (especially with higher end and more expensive housing). However, I also think most of the population would be silly not to have any money invested in the stock market (provided they do it intelligently).

      I think we're largely in agreement about our personal finances. But when I see people say things like "people would be silly to not be invested (somewhat) in stock" I start imagining the people for whom this means buying Apple because they announce a cool product.

      Stock payouts are quite volatile, many people go home with $0, or less. In housing you're likely to be able to recoup some of your purchase price, but are unlikely (in the long term) to make much. In stock you're more likely to make more, but more likely to lose it as well.

      If you expect "normal" volatility (if you have a TV, it still works just as well even if it's now half the cost - ditto your house) in the stock market then you're going to invest badly, almost guaranteed. Stocks have devices (index funds, hedges, etc) to avoid any piece of risk you wish but these aren't half as obvious as "possession is 9/10ths of the law". Even if you go upside down on your mortgage and are stuck with your crappy house for twenty years, you've still got a roof. If you invest in stocks in the way that 99% of people would (and aren't discouraged from by the other players) you will lose.

      Fiscally they're about the same. Emotionally, losing your home is probably worse.

      If they're took out a large loan with a floating interest rate, then they're insane.

      What do you think is supporting the huge boom in real-estate prices? They aren't producing much more money via rent... Cheap mortgages let anyone into the game and loose credit standards (as if this wasn't the goal) let people adopt way too much debt.

      When I bought (2004, way too late, but still ended up well) I paid 100k and got a mortgage on aprox 2/3 at a very nice line-of-credit interest rate (with 1-month lock-in). I sold at 145k 18 months later, that guy had almost twice my mortgage on a similar salary, without the backup of another wage earner available, and in a market with rapidly climbing interest rates. My only complaint is that I don't hold his mortgage.

      This is everywhere, and this is the level of investment savvy people are bringing to stocks.

      I've read a few hundred articles on corporate value, stock, most of Wikipedia on finance, etc, and I'm still a total newb to trying to value a company, let alone the market forces surrounding it. To suggest that the average Joe try this is inviting their scalping, like taking them to a high-stakes poker game.

    100. Re:Can't the same be said about the stockmarket? by FallLine · · Score: 1

      I also do mean "publicly traded stock markets and related media frenzy" when I say "Stocks", as it is what I feel most people would refer to as the "Stock Market".

      Well I'm referring primarily to public equities. "The stock market" can refer also to the trading of bonds (debt) which can further confuse the discussion.

      But when I see people say things like "people would be silly to not be invested (somewhat) in stock" I start imagining the people for whom this means buying Apple because they announce a cool product.

      This is definitely not what I mean when I refer to the stock market. Many millions of Americans, for instance, are invested in public equities through mutual and pension funds. These tend to be pretty good investments and they don't require a tremendous level of sophistication to use properly (it mainly just involves choosing the right funds and the right balance of them relative to your liquidty needs/risk tolerance). Most of the funds invested in the market are invested responsibily (either by institutional investors, professional money/fund managers, or sophisticated/wealthy individuals). The day trader types that respond purely to the latest press releases certainly do exist, but they're bit players in the grand scheme of things (especially post-bubble).

      Stock payouts are quite volatile, many people go home with $0, or less. In housing you're likely to be able to recoup some of your purchase price, but are unlikely (in the long term) to make much. In stock you're more likely to make more, but more likely to lose it as well.

      I agree that public equities are significantly more volatile than other investments, but if you diversify within them properly the odds of losing your shirt is close to zero (it would basically require a total market collapse... in which case everyone would have major problems). The biggest problem is short-term liquidity. If you need cash to pay the bills, then you may be forced to sell when the market is down and thus lose out. Of course, real estate isn't really very liquid either; the bank barely pays above inflation; CDs aren't much better;... if you want a decent rate of return you're going to expose yourself to some risk.

      Even if you go upside down on your mortgage and are stuck with your crappy house for twenty years, you've still got a roof. If you invest in stocks in the way that 99% of people would (and aren't discouraged from by the other players) you will lose.

      Only if all you're looking for is a roof. However, many people see their house as several year long investment (just look at your friends) and they play similarly speculative games whether they're aware of it or not. In fact, I'd argue that more people these days are taking significantly greater risks with their housing investments than they are in the stock market (which is worse, in many ways, because it's totally undiversified). The difference is that most people intuitively understand that there is risk on the stock market, whereas millions of people see real estate as a "safe investment" (having only seen the housing market in their area go up and up and up).

      What do you think is supporting the huge boom in real-estate prices? They aren't producing much more money via rent... Cheap mortgages let anyone into the game and loose credit standards (as if this wasn't the goal) let people adopt way too much debt.

      Most mortages aren't based on floating interest rates. Low fixed interest rates and readily available credit have fueled the boom, but so have rising house prices. It is a feedback loop. Rapid appreciation has made taking out loans for housing very attractive for consumers (they see it as an investment that pays off quickly) and, as long house pricing remains relatively stable or grows, the banks have little risk exposure. The general

  2. You mean like First Life? by jesuscyborg · · Score: 2, Informative

    Sounds a lot like the promises of becoming rich in real life that few actually obtain due to those pesky land barons^W^Wcorporations.

    1. Re:You mean like First Life? by ArsenneLupin · · Score: 1

      I know you shot for First Life, but looks like I was faster. Nia, nia!

    2. Re:You mean like First Life? by $RANDOMLUSER · · Score: 1

      Yeah, it's a lot like First Life. Most people are simply trying to exchange their time/labor (virtual or real) for stuff they perceive they want, while a few have figured out how to game the system and win big. So yeah, it's a lot like First Life.

      --
      No folly is more costly than the folly of intolerant idealism. - Winston Churchill
  3. WoW! by Kirin+Fenrir · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I've known World of Warcraft was a money-sink from day one. So this guy is saying MMO's cost money? I know Second Life has no monthly fee, but come on...a pyramid scheme?

    It's not easy to make money in your First Life either, therefore, real-life must be a pyramid scheme. Damn you, God, you sly bastard!

    --
    Caffeine is my anti-drug!

    Duranin - A NWN2 Roleplaying Persistent World
    1. Re:WoW! by Bert64 · · Score: 1

      Real life is exactly a pyramid scheme too, all the money gradually filters upwards to the top 5% of people who are filthy rich. Those who are filthy rich will remain so, while those who are not never will be.

      --
      http://spamdecoy.net - free throwaway anonymous email - avoid spam!
    2. Re:WoW! by ciggieposeur · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Though I know where you're coming from (having read The Screwing of the Average Man many years ago), you might get further traction if you pick your numbers more carefully.

      The bottom edge of the top 5% sorted by income isn't obscene -- I think that is somewhere around $300-$500K USD per year. It's hard to dismiss the value of a $500K CEO whose wheeling and dealing keeps two hundred other people employed at $40K+ each -- that's $500K propping up $8 million in salaries.

      Now, the bottom edge of the top 1% is getting there -- I believe that is near $1-$3 million. At $1 million you're talking near $500 per hour or $8 per minute. That means it costs a Fortune 500 company $50 every time a VP takes a piss.

      The trick is to get the IRS figures and find good values to delineate the range between "making a lot of money by producing a lot of value for others" and "making so much it literally is obscene". I used to have the numbers handy back when I liked to argue about things, but I've forgotten them now.

    3. Re:WoW! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Did you even RTFA?

      What he's saying is that Second Life is not a valid economy. Its creator is apparently pushing it as one, but it's nearly impossible to liquidate your in-game assets. Sounds about right to me.

    4. Re:WoW! by pimp0r · · Score: 1

      And is there a reason that CEO can't live comfortably with 100K instead? Does he have some form of god-power that entitles him to make 10x the amount he expects others to be satisfied with? Most of these people also get rewarded even if they run the company into the ground and have to be removed. ( Some even use that as an exit-strategy, and miraculously get hired as an advisor/consultant/whatever at another company run by their buddies )

  4. But it's a pyramid scheme with... by KDan · · Score: 4, Funny

    BDSM and Virtual Sex...

    Daniel

    --
    Carpe Diem
  5. Now on computers! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    "SecondLife is a giant magnet for the desperate, uninformed, easily victimized. Its promises of wealth readily ensnare those who can least afford to lose their money"

    In other words: there's a sucker born every minute. This is nothing more than the same thing we've been seeing for decades now. Take an old concept, tack on "using a computer." and it somehow seems new and interesting. People get suckered. Now they're getting suckered with computers. So what?

    1. Re:Now on computers! by udderly · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "SecondLife is a giant magnet for the desperate, uninformed, easily victimized. Its promises of wealth readily ensnare those who can least afford to lose their money" Just like the lottery.
    2. Re:Now on computers! by Imsdal · · Score: 1
      Just like the lottery.

      No, the (state) lotteries are far worse. They are more heavily advertised, they are designed specifically to allure to poor people and they do fool many, many more people. State lotteries are nothing but a terrible (but shockingly effective) tax on people with poor math skills. This correlates pretty well with just plain poor people, unsurprisingly.

    3. Re:Now on computers! by j-beda · · Score: 1
      State lotteries are nothing but a terrible (but shockingly effective) tax on people with poor math skills.
      Unfortunately, they do not seem to be terribly effective, if one takes into account the costs associated with gamboling addiction that the state ends up paying, and the way that the "profits" from the state sponsored gamboling tend to be used in the budgeting process. States that spend those profits on specific items (such as education) no not seem to fund those items as well as states that use regular revenue for those items for example.

      If by "effective" you mean "effective at extracting the money from the person", then they do seem to be doing that fairly well.

    4. Re:Now on computers! by udderly · · Score: 1

      You mean like they advertise in a neighboring state, "you can't win if you don't play!"

    5. Re:Now on computers! by MrPinstripeCom · · Score: 2, Funny

      Hey! I won the UK lottery 173 times last year, and I NEVER EVEN BOUGHT A TICKET.....So NEENER NEENER NEENER. My Nigerian friend also needs help with his investing, so he MIGHT be the one buying me all those UK lottery tickets......Regardless, I gave 'em all my banking information, and I'll have the money any day now.

      What we need is a Ponzi Scheme WITHIN second life....I'm going to start offering real estate acquisition courses and start offering all the second life citizens with poor credit financial security in the future.

      Then I'm going to take all their fake fake money, and steal it.

      and buy more lottery tickets.

    6. Re:Now on computers! by Raenex · · Score: 1
      State lotteries are nothing but a terrible (but shockingly effective) tax on people with poor math skills.

      Not totally true. As an example, my mother spends way too much on state lotteries, and she's an accountant with a college degree. She should definitely know better, but I believe it's just an addiction, like cigarettes or anything else. I've also heard lots of stories of well-to-do people gambling their money away. I agree, though, that in general it hurts the lower class more.

  6. One born every minute... by Zeek40 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I'm sorry, buy if you consider investing in virtual property in a Video Game a good idea, you have absolutely no business managing your own funds. You'd probably be better off investing in a pyramid scheme ( aside from the fact that they're illegal ). At least most pyramid schemes have some sort of actual product that moves around, rather than just a collection of bits on some hard drive somewhere.

    1. Re:One born every minute... by kylben · · Score: 1

      So can we assume you don't work as a programmer? Afterall, nobody that writes software produces any product whatsoever, just "a collection of bits on a hard drive somewhere". SL is a game, it is entertainment, and the content of the game is created mostly by the users. Those who produce a better entertainment experience make some money. Those who just want a better entertainment experience pay money for that. It's no different than what Sid Meiers does, except that the work is distributed.

      --
      Insightful and funny are really the same thing, except one has a punch line.
    2. Re:One born every minute... by Half+a+dent · · Score: 1

      Ahh, but investing in virtual property and selling it for a profit...

      If someone is willing to pay for it then it is a commodity, regardless of if it is virtual or physical - just think of sales of IP.

    3. Re:One born every minute... by GuyFawkes · · Score: 1

      The united states dollar, along with the united kingdom pound, and most other currencies, is no more than virtual money, with as much true innate value as linden dollars or any other virtual money.

      we live in a fiat economy, the chinese discarded it a thousand years ago, the problems they had then are rearing their ugly heads yet again, with the same end result, more than likely.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_currency

      --
      http://slashdot.org/~GuyFawkes/journal
    4. Re:One born every minute... by Half+a+dent · · Score: 1

      "we live in a fiat economy"

      Is the smallest unit of currency a Fiat Uno?

    5. Re:One born every minute... by Zeek40 · · Score: 1

      Actually, I am a programmer. I write battle simulation software for the Army. I create a product. That product has value. That product is NOT something that i would invest money in and expect a return on, because the product can't be expected to increase in value without more effort being put into it. You seem to misunderstand the difference between an item having value and an item being a good investment, which was the focus of my argument. A brand new Porche certainly has value, but is not a good investment, because in the future it is unlikely that its value will increase without significant effort on my part ( and according to my paycheck, that effort has value as well). In the same way, the "collection of bits on a harddrive somewhere" may have value, but it is unlikeley to increase its value without continued effort on my part, making it a bad investment.

    6. Re:One born every minute... by El+Torico · · Score: 1
      If someone is willing to pay for it then it is a commodity, regardless of if it is virtual or physical - just think of sales of IP.

      That is correct, but some objects have little or no intrinsic value, because they have no utility. In the city of Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India in the 19th century, there was heavy speculation on a currency that was printed by no bank or government. Its value mushroomed and then collapsed. The Tulip Bulb Mania of 1630s Holland is another case. At least the tulips were pretty, which is more than I can say about Second Life. Web 2.0 will be followed by Bust 2.0.

      --
      In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is usually crucified.
    7. Re:One born every minute... by Z0mb1eman · · Score: 1

      >So can we assume you don't work as a programmer? Afterall, nobody that writes software produces any product whatsoever, just "a collection of bits on a hard drive somewhere".

      Except a programmer usually works in an environment with well-defined and stable social and economical rules. They have reasonable certainty that, if there is demand for their product, they will be able to sell it on a market with an enforced system (however imperfect) that protects their ability to do so.

      As long as you treat Second Life as entertainment, it's all good (in the same way that gambling is entertainment - I'm usually not entertained by losing my own money, but that's personal bias). When someone starts treating Second Life as a way of making money - as the article and the grandparent are discussing - you have a problem.

      Chances are you don't invest your money in unstable third-world countries. Corruption means that the rules - such as they are - are usually not enforced. The system is pretty much an unknown unless you're actually running it. Laws and economic situation might change rapidly. In the worst cases, the government might collapse entirely, or decide to seize all your money.

      From my point of view, something like Second Life is even worse than the above. You have no certainty that Second Life will still be around in a year (how is that NOT like a pyramid scheme?). The rules are set and enforced by Linden Labs, whose stated purpose is to make money off you, not to serve your best interests.

      It's a great environment to scam people... or a great environment to be scammed in. None of this matters if you only treat it as a game, yes, but as soon as you start treating it as more, those are the only two outcomes I see.

      --
      ClutterMe.com - easiest site creation on the Net. Just click and type.
    8. Re:One born every minute... by mikael · · Score: 1

      More likely a smart car. Or even a LEGO model.

      --
      Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
    9. Re:One born every minute... by _KiTA_ · · Score: 1

      I'm sorry, buy if you consider investing in virtual property in a Video Game a good idea, you have absolutely no business managing your own funds.

      What about people who pay $10,000+ for a cleverly worded domain name?

    10. Re:One born every minute... by rizole · · Score: 1

      At least most pyramid schemes have some sort of actual product that moves around, rather than just a collection of bits on some hard drive somewhere.

      You mean like my music collection?

    11. Re:One born every minute... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The point about making money in Second Life is to make it... and then get it out into a stable system,regulated, insured and legally responsible system (i.e. real banks dealing in dollars, sterling... whatever). Idiots who put their money in Second Life banks deserve to lose it.

    12. Re:One born every minute... by Bryansix · · Score: 1

      I agree with you that investing in Second Life is not the best investment in most cases but I take issue with your reasoning. You say that it is a dumb idea because it's "just a collection of bits on some hard drive somewhere". The thing is in this day and age many companies make money selling a collection of bits on some hard drive somewhere. Look at Stock Digital Photography. That has real market value. Look at Hosting companies. They are just selling you the opportunity to have a collection of bits on a hard drive. Both of these businesses are well rooted in market demand for their products and services. That is what differentiates Second Life from any other investment. The liquidity is the difference because demand for objects in Second Life is no where near demand for other products or services.

    13. Re:One born every minute... by Sporkinum · · Score: 1

      ""we live in a fiat economy"
      Is the smallest unit of currency a Fiat Uno?"

      Actually, half of an Uno is a Cinquecento.

      --
      "He's lost in a 'floyd hole"
    14. Re:One born every minute... by necro2607 · · Score: 1

      "At least most pyramid schemes have some sort of actual product that moves around, rather than just a collection of bits on some hard drive somewhere."

      The bits making your computer operable aren't considered actual product of any sort? I wonder how software companies can charge hundreds of dollars for their software??! It must be a pyramid scheme, selling off bits and bytes for exorbitant prices!

      BTW, if people will pay money for something, it has value regardless of what it is. Spend a few minutes and search eBay for "warcraft" or "ultima" and you'll see that there are people on there making a huge amount of money selling bits (items, characters, gold, all entirely just a collection of bits on some hard drive somewhere) to unsuspecting victims of these illegal pyramid schemes!

    15. Re:One born every minute... by Zeek40 · · Score: 1
      1. You don't actually own any of the "property" in any of the games. Just an example from the Second life EULA:
        You acknowledge that the Service presently includes a component of in-world fictional currency ("Currency" or "Linden Dollars" or "L$"), which constitutes a limited license right to use a feature of our product when, as, and if allowed by Linden Lab. Linden Lab may charge fees for the right to use Linden Dollars, or may distribute Linden Dollars without charge, in its sole discretion. Regardless of terminology used, Linden Dollars represent a limited license right governed solely under the terms of this Agreement, and are not redeemable for any sum of money or monetary value from Linden Lab at any time. You agree that Linden Lab has the absolute right to manage, regulate, control, modify and/or eliminate such Currency as it sees fit in its sole discretion, in any general or specific case, and that Linden Lab will have no liability to you based on its exercise of such right.
        To make it short and simple for you: you can't cash it out if they don't let you, and they can create and destroy the currency at will. I know a similar provision exists in the WoW and most other MMORPG EULA's.
      2. I'm talking about 'ownership' of a bit of data used within a software system, you're talking about a full fledged, standalone software application, they're two different things.
      3. Just because something has value doesn't make it a good investment. A case of beer has value (espicially to me), but it is NOT a good investment as it's value is very unlikely to increase over time ( even if you don't drink it).
    16. Re:One born every minute... by flackrum · · Score: 1

      /me slaps you off your high horse. My father left the carpentry business due to back problems. He now takes care of his two young daughters at home while building virtual products within Second Life. He owns land to accommodate his 1) entertainment venue of choice and 2) his humble and casual business venture. He pays USD to maintain his ownership of the virtual land, which could be considered an investment. Honestly though, he'd be spending money either way. It's his entertainment. The interesting part is that he makes plenty of profit (I'll have to ask what he nets monthly). He recently purchased a new media center PC with dual widescreen LCDs, with plenty to spare from his SL business. So who's really being duped here? The guy (with barely any technical know-how) who's enjoying the entertainment of a virtual world while making real cash profit as a stay-at-home father with very little risk OR the dick who considers him part of some pyramid scheme, incapable of managing his own funds? (Disclaimer: I have no business in SL, I just spend USD to get what I want)

    17. Re:One born every minute... by Z0mb1eman · · Score: 1

      Which is pretty close to the definition of a pyramid scheme, no?

      --
      ClutterMe.com - easiest site creation on the Net. Just click and type.
    18. Re:One born every minute... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Only if you have a very odd definition of pyramid scheme. I'm just pointing out that the people offering banking services in SL are very shady indeed, and only fools use them. The rest of Second Life is a mixture of people making money perfectly legitimately (by selling their skills, be they sex, scripting, artists, desigers etc etc etc), and the scam artists who infect any commercial environment.

    19. Re:One born every minute... by Qzukk · · Score: 1

      I'm talking about 'ownership' of a bit of data used within a software system, you're talking about a full fledged, standalone software application, they're two different things.

      There's no such thing as a "standalone" software application, it also exists within a system, just like everything else in the universe. Just like second life could turn off their server at any time, Microsoft could update windows to refuse to run your software application at any time, and then where would your investment be (maybe on a vacation to Korea)?

      --
      If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
  7. Just like first life.... by BVis · · Score: 4, Interesting

    there are people who will seek to take advantage of others for financial gain. It's generally referred to as "capitalism." Those same people who are deceived by con artists in Second Life are the people who watch the infomercials on late-night TV that have the guy with seventeen mansions and a 25 foot speedboat and hot and cold running girls, etc. and believe what they're saying.

    The same adage works in both worlds: "If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is."

    I've spent considerable time in SL, and have spent a grand total of $20 in my time there. I've made small amounts of in-world cash through various jobs. I tune out the scammers in SL just like i do in RL.

    Anyone that gets scammed like this (in either world) deserves to be parted from their money. Anything we can do to make stupidity painful (or at least expensive) is OK in my book.

    --
    Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.
    1. Re:Just like first life.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "It's generally referred to as 'capitalism' [by socialists]."

    2. Re:Just like first life.... by kalirion · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Anyone that gets scammed like this (in either world) deserves to be parted from their money. Anything we can do to make stupidity painful (or at least expensive) is OK in my book.

      You must just love it when grandmas who have only just discovered the internet lose their life savings to PRESIDENT UBUNTA OF NIGERIA.

    3. Re:Just like first life.... by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 1
      there are people who will seek to take advantage of others for financial gain. It's generally referred to as "capitalism."

      It would appear on the surface that Capitalism will inevitably lead to a highly oppressive society where rich people rule over large masses of poor people. But it is not true. Proven scientifically.

      Robert Axelrod of Univ of Mich, showed, based on simulations of Prisoner's Dilemma problems, how cooperation emerges due to purely selfish reasons. He showed that nice, forgiving, non-envious strategies lead to prosperity, when nastiness is consistently punished. He showed later how enclaves of cooperation can form even in highly nasty selfish societies and how they can overhelm the oppressive selfish nasty behaviour. He also showed that the fundamental tit-for-tat strategy is not an Evolutionarily Stable Strategy, once the nastiness has been reduced to zero. Then this strategy is no different from purely altruistic strategy. Once pure altruism, where nastiness is not punished at all, emerges in the population, it allows a foothold for nasty strategies. So you cant just equate Capitalism with nastiness and selfishness. Capitalism and enlightened self interest will always lead to cooperation and mutual benefit.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tit_for_tat

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Axelrod

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    4. Re:Just like first life.... by BVis · · Score: 1

      Did anyone warn Grandma about anything before she started using the Internet?

      If not, well, there's your problem. The stupid is not located within Grandma, it's located within anyone that allowed Grandma within 15 feet of a computer with Internet connectivity before educating her (or at least attempting to.)

      Again, conventional wisdom applies.. "If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is." I would hope that someone with grandchildren would at least be familiar with the concept.

      --
      Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.
    5. Re:Just like first life.... by BVis · · Score: 1

      Point. I'll qualify that to say "people who take advantage of others or of circumstances for financial gain."

      So long as greed and materialism exist, socialism can't work. And I don't see those going away any time soon.

      Wait, why am I reasoning with an AC? Seems like anytime anyone suggests replacing greed with altruism someone screams "socialist."

      --
      Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.
    6. Re:Just like first life.... by kobaz · · Score: 4, Interesting

      You must just love it when grandmas who have only just discovered the internet lose their life savings to PRESIDENT UBUNTA OF NIGERIA.

      [rhetorical]Why does the internet have anything to do with this?[/rhetorical]

      If grandma received a letter in the mail from the PRESIDENT UBUNTA OF NIGERIA what are the odds of the scam working? I would say it's less likely to work with snail mail based on purely nothing other than I think that since the internet is much more convenient and "magical". It's almost effortless to for people to just click reply and think, well, it can't hurt.

      A previous landlord of mine, who I figured was quite intelligent (he did have a phd in geology and was a professor) received a friendly note from our friends in Nigeria. He mentioned it to me and I explained to him how the scams work in detail. He said he was going to try seeing what he can get out of it, since some guy from "Canada" (since it's not Nigeria it's okay right?) had contacted him. Four checks came in with the sum of about 100k, he cashed them. I told him to not do anything at all, don't send these guys money, ever. Few weeks later he stopped by my place and said: "I'm sorry, but, you were right, I'm in the hole 300k. I've made arrangements with the bank to start repaying the money". The bank actually managed to recover all of it eventually (he had wired some people money and then the Nigerians withdrew even more). I can't believe he was actually thinking about just paying the bank back over 40 years.

      I really don't know if it's just pure stupidity or not.

      --

      The goal of computer science is to build something that will last at least until we've finished building it.
    7. Re:Just like first life.... by Jussi+K.+Kojootti · · Score: 1
      It would appear on the surface that Capitalism will inevitably lead to a highly oppressive society where rich people rule over large masses of poor people. But it is not true. Proven scientifically.
      That may be. The problem is that it's not proven in practice -- or can you point to a pure unregulated economy that actually works?
    8. Re:Just like first life.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What we do know is that general prosperity was much better in the USA and Europe as well, when those countries were largely unregulated. If you got screwed, you could still sue; after all there have been laws against bad things for millenia. There's nothing in capitalism that lets you hurt other people without punishment. Well, there is now, and it's called corrupt government influenced by big business lobby groups. Get the government out (restrict its power), and things will get better.

      Upward mobility (i.e. working-class people rising up to middle class) was much better as well in the past. It has gotten real bad by now.

      The last several decades, with increasing regulation everywhere, with increasing government involvement (like, every other buck goes through government now, instead of circulating in the actual productive *economy*), things have deteriorated extremely. We are seeing many problems that societies didn't have that much decades ago. And no, it's not violent cartoons on TV, it's not video games, and it's not evil capitalism that's to blame. The system is simply screwed up.

    9. Re:Just like first life.... by jidar · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Ah. Blaming the victim.
      Blaming the victim is trait that has become more common in the average American. Most educated people would agree that this common sentiment is not a good trait to have, and many say it's a sign of our increasing callous attitudes and selfishness, but what is the cause?

      It has been proposed that one cause of victim-blaming is the "Just World Hypothesis". People who believe that the world has to be fair, may find it hard or impossible to accept a situation in which a person is unfairly and badly hurt for no cause or reason. This leads to a sense that, somehow, the victim must have surely done 'something' to deserve their fate. Another theory entails the need to protect one's own sense of invulnerability. This inspires people to believe that bad things to those who deserve or provoke it (Schneider et. al., 1994). This is a way of feeling safer. If the potential victim avoids the behaviours of the past victims then they themselves will remain safe and feel less vulnerable.

      Supporters of this view (once referred to as "Job's comforters") must perforce accept that to do otherwise would require them to give up their belief in a just world, and require them to believe in a world where bad things -- such as poverty, rape, starvation, and murder -- can happen to good people for no good reason. The cognitive dissonance in doing this becomes too great, and results in victim-blaming.

      So BVis, what do you think is wrong with you that makes you think this way?

      --
      Sigs are awesome huh?
    10. Re:Just like first life.... by BVis · · Score: 2, Insightful

      This isn't blaming the victim. It's asking people to be responsible for themselves and their loved ones.

      The world isn't fair. Once you accept that and take steps to be responsible for your own safety and your own actions, you'll do a lot better.

      --
      Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.
    11. Re:Just like first life.... by Azghoul · · Score: 1

      Replacing greed with altruism is great - the other poster offered links to Wiki about it. Replacing gree with "altruism by force" is socialist. :)

    12. Re:Just like first life.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      there are people who will seek to take advantage of others for financial gain. It's generally referred to as "capitalism."

      No, capitalism is where the means of production are privately owned. To say that this is where people get ripped off is like saying "A non-fasicst state is one where people drink a lot of vodak and drive around killing one another"

    13. Re:Just like first life.... by SpecTheIntro · · Score: 0
      there are people who will seek to take advantage of others for financial gain. It's generally referred to as "capitalism."

      And you got modded +5. Jesus Christ. I lose more faith in slashdot every day.

    14. Re:Just like first life.... by drsquare · · Score: 1

      If she's been alive for eighty years yet lacks the basic common sense to not send her life savings to a person she's never met in Nigeria, then she must have lived a very sheltered life.

    15. Re:Just like first life.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No one can point to any pure unregulated market economy period. Similarly, no one can't point to a pure communist economy either. Real life abhors purity, to the dismay of ideologues everywhere.

      (Although, they should be somewhat grateful, as this also gives them an excuse that applies in every situation. Anytime applying ideology X appears to fail, you can simply argue that you didn't do enough of X.)

    16. Re:Just like first life.... by Imsdal · · Score: 1
      Blaming the victim is trait that has become more common in the average American.

      This isn't even remotely true, as a staggering amount of bizzare, yet successful, law suits will tell you. I'd argue very strongly that the opposite is true.

      Pouring hot coffee on your lap while driving? Not your fault. Being raped by some creep you met on MySpace? Clearly MySpace is the one to blame. Some punk shoots some other punk? Clearly violent video games are to blame.

    17. Re:Just like first life.... by sesshomaru · · Score: 1
      Also, scamming people (or killing people, as in a war) is a lot easier if you think that the people you are scamming (or helping your company to scam) deserve to be scammed.

      Think of how badly the employees of things like State Lotteries and Credit Card Companies would feel if they didn't believe that the suckers deserve it.

      --
      "MIT betrayed all of its basic principles."
    18. Re:Just like first life.... by Rydia · · Score: 1

      Altruism = awesome
      Force = awesome

      Ergo, altruism by force = SUPER AWESOME

    19. Re:Just like first life.... by Rydia · · Score: 1

      The sentiment is just as common as yours. Most people joke about the McDonalds thing, even though the woman sustained severe burns and McD's kept their coffee at an unsafe (courts warned them before) temperature.

      As for rape cases, as someone with experience in prosecution I can gaurantee you that the vast majority of people blame the victim, unless the assault was something particularly random or heinous. It's almost sickening, the degree to which people make excuses for "nice" (ie, not extremely violent and/or pedophilic) rapists.

    20. Re:Just like first life.... by rizole · · Score: 1

      Doesn't he make some kind of operating system?

    21. Re:Just like first life.... by jadavis · · Score: 1

      So long as greed and materialism exist, socialism can't work.

      More like: ever since economies were too complicated and dynamic for a small group to understand and solve, socialism couldn't work.

      --
      Social scientists are inspired by theories; scientists are humbled by facts.
    22. Re:Just like first life.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Pouring hot coffee on your lap while driving?
      It is when the cup melts because the coffee is too hot....

    23. Re:Just like first life.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      The problem with your Nigeria example is this: the victim isn't a victim in as much they were willfully turning a blind eye to potentially becoming con-artist/criminal, too.

      The poverty in Africa is well known, as are the known links of money laundering to terrorism. Did the victim stop to verify that they were not aiding and abeting a terrorist operation or a totaltarian regime? If they had done ever the smallest amount of research, they would have been made aware that it really was a scam.

      The SIN, the FAULT, the CRIME the 'victim' is commiting is turning a blind eye to the reality of the world and that, if it wasn't a scam, that they could have potentially been participating in a crime.

      The 'victim' in this case isn't so much different from the hardware store owner who makes a fortune from a sale of fertalizer to the person who requested to purchase enough to 'blow up a large federal building.'

    24. Re:Just like first life.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Anyone that gets scammed like this (in either world) deserves to be parted from their money. Anything we can do to make stupidity painful (or at least expensive) is OK in my book."

      You better throw out your book.

    25. Re:Just like first life.... by jidar · · Score: 1

      Right. Now go around to the people you know and ask them how many agree with those lawsuits.
      I'd wager you get more that think it's stupid than otherwise. A quick check in the immediate area around my office found 5 against
      votes and not one for vote.

      While what you are referring to is constantly in the news, the average persons views are often not reflected by what's happening on television.

      --
      Sigs are awesome huh?
    26. Re:Just like first life.... by aug24 · · Score: 1

      Don't be an arse.

      Pretty much everyone who loses money to 419ers is a white businessman. Not to mention that they all know they're doing something naughty.

      First rule of the con: make the mark think they are breaking the law but tempt them so much they do it anyway.

      Justin.

      --
      You're only jealous cos the little penguins are talking to me.
    27. Re:Just like first life.... by mfrank · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Read "The Jungle" by Upton Sinclair. Very early 1900's were pretty friggin' unregulated capitalism. It takes place in the meat packing district (of Chicago, I think) and the publication of this novel pretty much led to the establishment of the Food and Drug Administration. The last chapter has the main character attending a Communist Party meeting and "seeing the light" (Sinclair was a major league commie).

      Purely unregulated economies dont' work. But there's more to a society than the economy.

    28. Re:Just like first life.... by Sargeant+Slaughter · · Score: 1

      So BVis, what do you think is wrong with you that makes you think this way?

      I took the original post to say that these people are not victims. Rather than placing their money in a 401K or bank account, they want to make "easy money" and usually get burned. In my experience, I have found that old people and immigrants (english as a second language) are expecially vulnerable to these schemes, but that doesn't mean anyone is forcing them to pay up. They just need to be smarter with their money. Notice that these two groups are also the most likely to gamble regularly...

      So Jidar, what do you think is wrong with you that makes you think BV is "victim blaming?"

      Maybe you have spent too much time placing people in "containers" (Webster et. al, any year) based on your preconceptions, rather than actually thinking critically about the point they are trying to make.

      --
      I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand. -Confucius
    29. Re:Just like first life.... by PhiRatE · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Man. What complete crap.

      You're not wrong, in the sense that there are plenty of people who suffer from that "Just World" problem. But using it as a method to attack anyone who judges another at fault for failing to apply even the most basic thought to a a significant action does not require that you subscribe to the Just World hypothesis.

      People who subscribe to that will blame another for what essentially constitute random accidents - a car hits yours when you had right of way - why didn't you do a defensive driving course? people are idiots you know!

      However it's not the same thing to find fault with someone who, due to their own failure to apply common sense to a significant action, suffers loss (not the same as requiring common sense for an everyday action, attention is not always available).

      It is also not the same to find fault with someone in the abstract, vs a particular person. Ie, to say that in general, those scammed by 911 mails should have known better, that the entire thing is both too dodgy and too good to be true, is not the same as berating your grandmother because it happened to her.

      People are always more willing to deliver an objective assessment in the abstract, when it actually happens to your lovely old grandmother who spent years in Nigeria in her youth helping their education system the cause-and-effect of judgement suspension is easier to follow and natural sympathy for a member of your tribe comes into play.

      The tragedy is that people with a strong belief that you are correct result in a less resilient population. Believers who end up in politics attempt to create a legal environment based on the idea that people cannot be trusted to think, a self-perpetuating cycle once it gets bad enough - if you don't normally have to think while going about your day to day activities, it becomes harder and harder to blame you for not thinking when anything unusual happens, so more and more things have to be regulated to the point where it is impossible to come to harm no matter how stupid the action.

      Not only is such an environment unsustainable (at least given our current technology level), it is severely counter-productive. Safety is easiest to apply to a narrow range of possibilities, and thus laws are made which subsequently restrict peoples ability to act in an intelligent, but uncommon manner, resulting in heavy efficiency losses overall.

      So jidar, why are you mis-representing the views of people in order to make yourself feel superior, and why are you screwing up my society?

      --
      You can't win a fight.
    30. Re:Just like first life.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What we do know is that general prosperity was much better in the USA and Europe as well, when those countries were largely unregulated.

      Utter drivel that is completely unsupported by even the dubious of historians. You've never had it better than you have today -- particularly if you live in Europe, where we don't let you die just because you can't afford to pay medical bills.

    31. Re:Just like first life.... by rblum · · Score: 1

      No, it's actually called "taking responsibility". If you fall for a Nigeria scam, that is YOUR fault. Nobody forced you to participate, you *chose* to because you were greedy. Part of a Nigeria scam is that you help somebody else to break the law.

      Poverty, rape, starvation and murder usually have *unwilling* participants.

      Notice the difference there?

    32. Re:Just like first life.... by dcam · · Score: 1

      Blame the victim goes with the libertarian thinking that is so popular in the US.

      --
      meh
    33. Re:Just like first life.... by haystor · · Score: 1

      How do you know they don't work? The creation of the FDA stopped any private solution from happening. The book was published, the public became informed and the government stopped put a halt on the free market.

      You can't say it doesn't work because it had a problem and then wasn't allowed a chance to correct that problem through market forces.

      Apparently the market was working though. People were perfectly willing to pay for meat of unknown quality. They got what they paid for. The public just wasn't concerned with the origin or quality of the meat they were paying for. To retroactively apply our current values in meat-picking to a previous market is wrong. There just wasn't a value placed on the origin of the meat until after the book.

      --
      t
    34. Re:Just like first life.... by CokeBear · · Score: 1

      Certainly there was a value placed on higher-quality meat. Part of the problem is that pure capitalism imposes no penalty for deception. If the meat packers lie about the origins of the meat or the processing method used, their deception is very profitable for them, and the long term health of the population suffers. (The same could be said for several modern industries. There is still very little penalty for misleading marketing, and in fact the fastest route to getting rich quick in the USA seems to be deceptive advertising and marketing bullshit; hence the preponderance of snake oil infomercials that pollute our airwaves.)

      --
      Reality has a liberal bias
  8. Probably more like Vegas than pushy realitors by antifoidulus · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Some will go in desperately believing that it will make them a lot of money then wind up losing a ton, some will be smart and/or lucky and go in and make a lot of money, and most will go in with the expecation that they will enjoy themselves, if they make some money great, if they lose it it sucks but they know that going in and set aside a small amount for that purpose. And of course, the house, aka Linden Labs, always winds up a winner.

  9. Second Life? by EveryNickIsTaken · · Score: 5, Interesting
    I'm beginning to think that some media conglomerates must hold a stake in Second Life, and that's why we keep reading/hearing "news" on it.

    Compared to other online communities or games, Second Life is miniscule.

    "...only are most people deceived about the amount of money they can make in Second Life, but also about how easily they can withdraw it."

    Yeah. Right. The reason people start playing Second Life is because their First Life is boring or sucks. Not because they "heard how much money they can make off it."

    1. Re:Second Life? by cybermage · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Not because they "heard how much money they can make off it."

      I think that you are right about the majority of people using Second Life, but I personally know people who do Second Life for a living.

      There are people who hear stories about making money from Second Life and pick it up for that reason, but I think the point that the article fails to get is that it is not the creators of the game saying it.

    2. Re:Second Life? by jalefkowit · · Score: 1
      I'm beginning to think that some media conglomerates must hold a stake in Second Life, and that's why we keep reading/hearing "news" on it.

      It's more due to the fact that Linden Lab (the company behind Second Life) hired a really good PR agency that packaged the story up with a bow for reporters.

    3. Re:Second Life? by HorsePunchKid · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I'm beginning to think that some media conglomerates must hold a stake in Second Life, and that's why we keep reading/hearing "news" on it. You may be on to something...
      --
      Steven N. Severinghaus
    4. Re:Second Life? by gclef · · Score: 1

      Nah, I suspect they heard about it from the flying penises. Anything that has those must be a real internet mover and shaker.

    5. Re:Second Life? by IamTheRealMike · · Score: 1

      Valleywag seems to be mounting a 1-man crusade against Second Life right now. They either generate or publicise pretty much any negative news about it they can. As to the rest of the news industry, well, journos like to talk about it because it's basically unique and the idea is a bit sci-fi.

    6. Re:Second Life? by nine-times · · Score: 1

      Yeah. Right. The reason people start playing Second Life is because their First Life is boring or sucks. Not because they "heard how much money they can make off it."

      You must not have any friends prone to get-rich-quick schemes.

    7. Re:Second Life? by pokemonkiller · · Score: 0

      Spot on! I don't know that Second Life does much of ANY marketing. We hear most about Second Life though the media. Case in point, my 65 year old father called me up on the phone to tell me about a news report he had seen moments prior on TV about a game [Second Life] in which you can setup shop and sell virtual goods.

  10. Deceived by whom? by Rob+T+Firefly · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I've only recently started playing this game, and me getting into it had nothing to do with any hype about perceived money-making opportunities. I had seen some friends playing, and seen some screenshots and things, and was mildly interested. When the client went OSS I respected that move enough to dissolve my last bit of resistance and try it out myself, and it turns out I enjoy it so far.

    Never in the game's help files or the blogs I read did it talk about using this thing as some huge income-generator. It's a game, and I find it pretty good at being a game. If on the other hand I wanted to work and make money I'd get another job.

    This "OMG MONEYS!" hype seems to be confined the more sensationalist news outlets which I don't really take as gospel, and some third-party stuff. From my own short experience playing the game the actual financial rewards appear, just as in real life, to come to the people with the skill, time, and wherwithal to put into making stuff other people want to buy.

    So who is doing any deceiving here?

    1. Re:Deceived by whom? by cowscows · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Exactly. There are some people who've had the mixture of talent, time, and luck with SL, and have managed to make some money through the game. For many of those people, as their SL bank account grew, so did their ego. And so they make a big deal about themselves, it gets picked up by some of the media because it's kind of a strange story, and some lazy people with free time think they can maybe get in on that action.

      These people are only fooling themselves, making money in SL requires time and effort just like in real life. If you want it to provide income, you're going to have to treat it like a job. A job in a bizarre and very unpredictable economy, but still a job.

      The really sucky part about this whole phenomena is that as these people gain publicity, their clout with the SL developers grows, and so the whole setup starts shifting in the favor of those who treat it as a job, at the expense of the majority, who treat it as some sort of a game. Linden Labs needs to be very careful with how they balance those two sides, because if all the "gamers" leave, then the bottom of the economy falls out, and all those virtual moguls won't be able to save SL.

      --

      One time I threw a brick at a duck.

    2. Re:Deceived by whom? by jandrese · · Score: 1

      Frankly, in SL I think you're doing pretty good if you make enough money to pay your tier (basically rent on your land), and that's an absolutely pathetic amount of money you need to make if you put your stipend towards your tier.

      I think the article misses the point that people put actual value into virtual items. Heck, the entire online porn industry is built on this (all you get are some bits that happen to represent naughty images with no resale value). The thing is that they're only focusing on land prices, because that's the only area in SL were the money involved isn't tiny, but in reality outside of the land barons nobody makes money on the land. It's the kind of business you get into only if you're willing to invest tens of thousands of dollars into buying islands and breaking them up for resale. Like most SL articles, this one is stupid.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    3. Re:Deceived by whom? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting
      How about FORTUNE? And you know, those columnists have an uncomfortably close relationship with SL to be reporting on it anyway, let alone with super-saturated level of hyperbole like that. Two of the quoted experts in the above article are current or former Fortune columnists, a fact only half disclosed.
      Says Mark Anderson, author of the Strategic News Service newsletter [undisclosed: and an occasional FORTUNE columnist]: "In two years I think Second Life will be huge, probably as large as the entire gaming community is today."
      The other FORTUNE columnist quoted in the article is now a SL investor (and if Mark Anderson isn't, why not? If he really believes what he's saying there). It looks to me like a gaggle of FORTUNE columnists invest in SL and then one wrote the above hype, quoting the others. How is that ok?
  11. Pyramid Schemes of FUD by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Financial consultant Randolph Harrison climbed the Pyramid of FUD and made it at least to the Slashdot frontpage.

    Later he was seen falling down the Pyramid of FUD swinging his fist at the loss of attention and was heard cursing the whole world and capitalism as "Pyramid Scheme".

    It isn't known if he will make it ever again to the top of the Pyramid of FUD where he might join CNN again for "Rumble in FUD" with the most important news and most expensive watches at the wrists of presenters.

  12. Crap by shirizaki · · Score: 1

    Second life is full of peoepl trying to stela my monies!!!!

    Quick, someone make a Thrid Life!

    --
    In Soviet Russia, dots slash you!
  13. What happened to fun? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    I play Second Life for fun. I just happen to sell stuff that I make to pay for a subscription. Investing a lot in a game as if it were a business is lame, IMO.

  14. Ads by Cutie+Pi · · Score: 4, Funny

    I love the ads that go along with this article:

    Get a (Second) Life
    Live out your virtual dreams with this official guide to Second Life!
    www.amazon.com

    Want a Easy $9000 a Week?
    Not MLM and No Selling Fully Automated and Get Paid Daily
    www.MillionaireSuccessCourse.com

  15. Load of junk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I make $1500 US a month from Second Life, whilst the ease of making money is definately overstated it has nothing in common with a pyramid scheme and it is very easy to withdraw your money (Not so much if you are trying to withdraw less than $50 due to the fees involved). This article talks about "banks", which no real business should be touching as the are run by residents and are unofficial and unapproved. This is the equivalent of giving your gold to another player in World Of Warcraft who tries to make you interest off it through loaning it to other players.

    He also seems to have no grasp of how the currency exchange system works, either you sell automatically at the lowest asking price or price it yourself. Trying to buy and sell currency is worthless due to the fees involved and the relative stability of the market.

    Any actual SL business will sell content to people, then cash this out on the official currency market every so often. It's really not hard to make a few dollars with no overheads. He does have a point on the circular nature of the market though, there are very few money sinks and the market is only healthy due to the fact new users are constantly joining.

    1. Re:Load of junk by UbuntuDupe · · Score: 1

      This article talks about "banks", which no real business should be touching as the are run by residents and are unofficial and unapproved.

      Back in '03 when I played SL, I started an in-game "bank". I held people's money over the end of their week so that it looked like they were poor and the system would give them more in-game currency. (It always refills you up to a certain level.) I didn't pay interest, but at one point I considered doing it to build trust.

    2. Re:Load of junk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > there are very few money sinks and the market is only healthy due to the fact new users are constantly joining.

      = pyramid.

      A lot a people here are missing the point of TFA. This guy is a trader trying to make money off an opportunity (just as a few years ago he was probably making side bets on the points spread until the regulators clamped down on it with disclosure rules for real market participants). He doesn't give a damn about the gaming aspect, because he's not the least bit interested in entertainment value - that's not his motivation.

      And his view is that SL isn't a real market and any gains are illusory. The only real money involved is being lost by the poor suckers^H^H^H^H^H^H^Hplayers who don't know any better. And he's implying that SL is possibly breaking the law.

      He's convinced me.

    3. Re:Load of junk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > the market is only healthy due to the fact new users are constantly joining.

      This is exactly what we call a pyramid scheme.

    4. Re:Load of junk by roman_mir · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The 'goods' that are sold within SL have no value in real life, which makes the SL a closed system, which sustains itself only due to the new users who are constantly joining as you yourself stated. It is a pyramid scheme.

    5. Re:Load of junk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Value is what people percieve it to be. People value characters and items in WoW but value makes a lot more sense in SL where skill, talent and effort are required to make a high quality item.

      How is it like a pyramid scheme in any way? I said the current market stability is only due to growth, it more or less functions like a real currency apart from being virtual. Currently there are enough people joining that the value of the currency is increasing despite a lot more being created (printed) than being bought. Linden Lab is the Government, they print money, hand some out as welfare and let the rest be purchased in exchange for other currency (real dollars) then some is removed and destroyed through charges (taxes). If people stopped joining they would have to increase taxes to sustain the value, it would be less profitable for residents but it's not going to crash or disappear.

      I am not an economist but I don't see this being much different to a real currency if there was just one official Government sanctioned back you have to keep your money in.

    6. Re:Load of junk by thelost · · Score: 1

      The 'goods' that are sold on earth have no value in the greater galaxy, which makes real life a closed system, which sustains itself only due to the new people who are constantly being born as you yourself stated. It is a pyramid scheme.

      see what I did there?

      --
      Promote Charity on Myspace, Show Your Colours!
    7. Re:Load of junk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Electronic goods (3D models, textures, web site design, etc) also have no value in "real life" -- other then the value pegged on them by the people that want them.

      "Gold" in World of Warcraft has no value, yet people often pay real world money for it.

      Digital photography is nothing but a bunch of no value bits, yet people pay hundreds of dollars for portraits every year.

      The biggest problem that many modern day analysts and economists have, is that they were trained during the days before the "information age" really took off. And they have difficulty placing value in any item that does not have a physical representation that they can pickup, and feel with their bare hands. They have trouble grasping the value of goods that exist merely as little electrons running around the internet and stored in your computer.

    8. Re:Load of junk by pimpimpim · · Score: 1

      Nice theory, but it doesn't seem to hold up in practice. Truth is, secondlife is just run and supported by a single company. As soon as the company gets bankrupt, everything is gone. Even the skills you got in creating new stuff in secondlife will be useless. I sure hope that you in your first life are not dependent on one single company!

      --
      molmod.com - computing tips from a molecular modeling
    9. Re:Load of junk by roman_mir · · Score: 1

      We are talking about this planet and the people on it and the market that is based on this planet and not in the galaxy far away. Your argument is pointless.

    10. Re:Load of junk by roman_mir · · Score: 1

      Most of the real world (over 99% of it) does not see any value in SL 'goods', thus your argument is misguided.

    11. Re:Load of junk by roman_mir · · Score: 1

      We are talking about a closed economical system. Value of SL 'goods' does not translate into real value for people who are not in SL. Most people are not in SL and the rest of us, who are not in SL do not see any value in those 'goods'.

      SL is a pyramid scheme, you'll understand that when you are left with a bunch of pretty avatars, which will be worth precisely zip.

      By the way value and cost are different things, value of clean air is very high, but the cost is nothing. Value of gold is high and the cost is high because of scarcity of this useful metal. Value is linked to perception and cost is linked to supply/demand issues.

    12. Re:Load of junk by PhilipMckrack · · Score: 1
      Not really. He makes virtual goods and sells them. What he can make is only limited by his creativity. There is no "skilling up" in this game, it is a glorified 3d chat room. The skills he gets are learning a scripting language and probably some photoshop skills, most definetly things he can take with him. Someone with little creativity buys the items because they want their avatar to look cool or do something it can't normally do. He cashes out. When second life goes under he still has his cash. The person that bought it is out, but probably no more than in any other online game that they buy stuff in. Not everybody is going to make money playing this game, but most people aren't looking to make money. They only want to have a nice game/chat room to spend their time in. They are paying for entertainment.

      Lets try another analogy and see if this one holds up. When you buy a dvd player from Sony you get something that you can use for entertainment. When you buy land (to build a house on, I'm not talking about huge amounts that cost lots of real life dollars) or clothes or whatever on second life you are getting something that you can use for entertainment. In x number of years when your dvd player croaks you have nothing left. You have to buy another one. In x number of years when second life shuts down you have nothing left. You have to buy another game.

      Holding land as an investment is an incredibly risky thing to do. Making stuff if you are creative and good at it is not nearly as risky since you don't have cash tied up in it only time. Really no more risky than making any software product. Thinking of this game as an investment opportunity is poor judgement.

      I sure hope that you in your first life are not dependent on one single company!


      What do you think happens when Enron goes bankrupt? There are lots of people that depend on one company for income. When that company goes kaput, they find a new job.
    13. Re:Load of junk by SydShamino · · Score: 1

      No, but from his analogy, we are all dependent on the earth, and when it goes, everything is gone. Even the skills I got while pursuing my career will be useless.

      --
      It doesn't hurt to be nice.
    14. Re:Load of junk by Redwing · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The "goods" that are sold at the iTunes Store have no value outside of mp3 players, which makes iTunes a closed system. It is a pyramid scheme. /sarcasm

      Who says entertainment has no value?

      --
      Raisinettes are my raison d'etre
    15. Re:Load of junk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      entertainment value is still a real world value, and we have whole industries devoted to making money from it.

      Now if the people are buying items in SL because of the percieved real economic value then your point is valid, but I am presuming that is not the case. It is still "a game", and therefore has real entertainment value.

  16. Seriously by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The entire economy is a pyramid scheme if you think anout it. Look at the pyramid on the dollar not that it is necessarily evidence, but most things with money turn into a pyramid structure. The lottery is just one example, but even a corporation hsa the few at the top. It just becomes a matter of degree after that and whether there is a minimum that those on the bottom can expect.

  17. Be Worried About Taxes by cybermage · · Score: 1, Insightful

    The pyramid scheme statement, in my opinion, would only be accurate if the game producers were using it as an enticement to get people to join the game, but they're not.

    The press does seem to have some kind of fascination about people making money off it, as they should, but for the wrong reason.

    What I think the industry should be more focused on is not the dashed dreams of people hoping to make money in these virtual universes and failing but those who succeed in making money.

    If you can turn around and sell virtual items for real cash, there is an argument to be made that receipt of those virtual items could be a taxable event. Be very afraid about how close we are getting to having to spell out the magic items we've received in WoW and their disposition as part of our income taxes.

    Sound nuts? Hardly!

  18. Deskwork by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The first lines of the article clearly shows that its deskwork of someone who has never even bothered to try the game.

    quote first line:
    "Linden Lab's virtual world -- a much-hyped online amusement arcade of cartoon porn, avatars of IBM executives and frog bands"

    What a judgmental idiot!

  19. Problems by Fist!+Of!+Death! · · Score: 2, Funny

    Hey I am still having problems running First Life. I mean the resolution and refresh rate I am getting is AWESOME, but maintenence on my avatar is disturbingly difficult. It takes weeks to modify the look of my avatar (many users have reported a similar problem), and all my support queries to the Developer seem to be piped to /dev/null.

    And not ONE cheat code has surfaced yet. I ask you!

    --
    Nothing witty
    1. Re:Problems by kalirion · · Score: 1

      You're doing it all wrong. Why worry about the appearance of your avatar? The real appeal of First Life is the minigames (like Second Life).

    2. Re:Problems by Fist!+Of!+Death! · · Score: 1

      But they are just crappy implementations one layer up the stack! We need more flexibility damnit! I want the source code for the physics engine, THAT's what I want!

      --
      Nothing witty
    3. Re:Problems by Rob+T+Firefly · · Score: 1

      My main gripe is the freaking gold farmers. Also, I'm still waiting for a bot I can use for the dull grinding bits.

    4. Re:Problems by Dogtanian · · Score: 1

      First Life is a pyramid scheme too... some people tell us that our actions within it have benefits outside this life, but I see no proof. And to make it worthwhile for ourselves, we end up taking actions that tend to lead to the creation of a new generation of people within First Life, and so on ad infinitum.

      Bleh!

      --
      "Slashdot - News and Chat Sites Deviant". (Click "homepage" link above for details).
    5. Re:Problems by Fist!+Of!+Death! · · Score: 1

      Hang on. Are you telling me I can't cash out my First Life dollars whenever I want to? Geee-zuz!
      Extending that logic, there are a few elite at the top of the FL pyramid scheme that are syphoning out FL dollars whenever they want to. Wonder what it all buys in the end?

      --
      Nothing witty
  20. Well.. by argStyopa · · Score: 4, Interesting

    ...I'm NOT a fan of Second Life - I think it's feeble, clumsy, laggy, antiquated in every technological way, and pointless - but even I draw the line at calling it a pyramid scheme.

    That's just silly. If anything, it's closer to a pure meritocracy than anything - there are some stunningly creative people in there (apparently with LOTS more time than me). There are a lot of things I'd be interested in exploring DESPITE the horrendous lag and 1992 graphics. Hopefully these creative people can sell their work for Linden$ and turn that into cash based on market forces.

    At some point, people have to be responsible for their own actions. It's 'caveat emptor' for the computer world, which itself is capitalist Darwinism that is essentially no different than any OTHER non-computer capitalist mechanism.

    If I enter 2nd Life with no knowledge of what I'm doing, and expect to "make ton$$$ of money!", I'm probably going to waste my time (and if I'm stupid enough to spend real money, I'll lose that too). How is this ANY different than if I buy a franchise restaurant without knowing anything about the business, or start day-trading stocks knowing NOTHING about the market? In every case, my ignorance will cause me to make mistakes (at best) or even be exploited by more savvy actors (at worst) but either way, the ending will not be happy for me.

    In that sense, 2nd life is no different than the real world.

    --
    -Styopa
    1. Re:Well.. by Aladrin · · Score: 1

      The article writer only used the term 'pyramid scheme' for the effect he knew it'd have. Those are 'evil' and he's trying to make SL out to be evil by association.

      It's not like a pyramid scheme in any way shape or form.

      I have my own reasons for hating Linden Labs (customer service, especially) but call it like it is.

      --
      "If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; But if you really make them think, they'll hate you." - DM
  21. SL economy is not a traditional economy by bitkari · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I think a lot of people have failed to realise some things about the economy of Second Life. Unlike our real-world economy, the world of SL doesn't have the same economic limits and drives that we're used to. If we do look at what's really going on there, we can see how things might change in our "real" economy in the future - and I don't just mean trying to do the same old "real" stuff virtually:

    • Apart from land (the price of which is set by Linden Labs), there is no real scarcity. If I want something (anything!), I can make it myself.
    • In the world you have no needs. You don't need any food to eat, you don't even need a place to live.
    • While it is described as a "game", there is no real game in SL. As such there is no struggle to gain resources to achieve game success.

    Now, the only real reason for any money in this game is for people to be able to buy items from other people that have created. However, if this system were to be abandoned in favour of, say, a FOSS-like model, people would simply make things that they enjoy creating, freely distribute them and likewise obtain items that they like from others without need for any financial exchange whatsoever. There certainly are many people already in SL who just give their creations freely without seeking any real payment other than a simple "thanks".

    There is no reason that this shouldn't happen other than we're quite used to dealing with a capitalist system based on scarcity. If we ever hope to grow beyond our current real-world economics, it's certainly worth trying to experiment with alternative systems virtually.



    1. Re:SL economy is not a traditional economy by vadim_t · · Score: 4, Interesting

      SL has scarcity of a kind. Boxes in SL are everywhere. Custom made things are scarce.

      People in SL won't abandon the economy for a "FOSS approach", and I say that as an OSS advocate myself.

      The thing is that no real cash would actually make SL a less impressive place. Let's suppose you want for whatever reason to look like your RL self. Right now you can hire an artist who will tell you what sort of photos they want of you, and will then create textures and clothes in the right shape. They get cash, and you get to look like yourself.

      On the other hand, who will bother with that in a pure "FOSS" environment? It's tedious work. The same way, OSS does badly in areas like accounting packages. Working on the kernel is interesting. Writing code for dealing with some obscure tax regulation is boring. Making some random guy's nose look just right is boring.

      Yes, people can and do release all sorts of things for free. Say, avatars. But who wants to be cybergoth #12342? All of them would look exactly the same. If you want to look unique there are only two things you can do: make it yourself (which is hard unless you're skilled), or get somebody else to make it. And so far we haven't come up with a better way to motivate people to make custom stuff than paying them for it.

    2. Re:SL economy is not a traditional economy by bitkari · · Score: 1

      Sure, I take the point that personal services using specialist skills are indeed limited in SL.

      The valued use of these services does happen, but unless you have a serious "thing" for cybersex or an insatiable penchant for novelty hats, most of your day-to-day SLing will rely on general commodity items that need not be scarce in this virtual world.

      When commodities are traded in the real world, there is a value put on them according to supply and demand. Having an unlimited supply of commodity items in a virtual world disrupts this process. Looking at our own real-world economy, we can see examples of this ability to supply near unlimited quantities of items already - and this is likely to increase in the future. I would suggest that we do seriously look at alternative economies now if we are to make the most (for everyone!) of what is to come.

    3. Re:SL economy is not a traditional economy by mstahl · · Score: 1

      I sincerely doubt the grandparent post was implying that custom work like creating a personalized avatar should follow a FOSS model. That's not even how it works in the OSS world (I'm an OSS developer). Custom open-source development happens all the time *and* people (myself included) get paid to do it, because we wouldn't do it otherwise.

      I think what the grandparent post was saying, actually, is that there exists no scarcity in Second Life except for artificially-imposed scarcity (land, custom items, etc.). Were I to sit down and make some object in SL, I could duplicate it millions of times at no extra cost to myself or those who purchase (or simply pick up) a copy of it. The effort required to produce an item in SL could be said to have value, but that value decreases with every copy made, because each copy doesn't require any more effort or material to produce. So, only by artificially creating scarcity (say, by only producing 100 of your item) can you have a supply/demand relationship that makes any sense at all.

    4. Re:SL economy is not a traditional economy by hughperkins · · Score: 1

      In a FOSS environment, customization services works.

      An avatar that looks like you is only valuable to you, everyone else wants to look like themself.

  22. Bullshit by vadim_t · · Score: 5, Informative

    It's very possible to make money in SL. But of course taking it as a stock market is stupid. What sells in SL is services.

    SL is simply an environment capable of connecting buyer to seller. You provide a service: drawing a custom picture, making a custom script, building something, the buyer provides the cash. This way of doing things simply CAN'T be a pyramid scheme.

    Banking in SL is stupid - that I can agree with. People in SL simply aren't patient enough to handle a sane interest rate. Most people work with amounts like $5 USD, which they consider significant. Only maybe 1% of all people in SL works with amounts of money where a 5% interest would amount to something. So SL banks offer really insane interests, possibly operating as a Ponzi scheme. I haven't used any SL banks, but my feeling is that they're very unreliable.

    Calling all of the SL economy a pyramid scheme is bullshit though. If you act as a scripter/artist/builder for hire you can make some money without problems. Build something pretty, put it on sale, and if people buy it, you get cash.

    Now, indeed, you won't get rich in SL very easily. Earning say, $10 or $20 in SL is easy. Earning something approaching a real income is very, very hard. It'll take dedication, an impressive quality (there's tons of competition), selling things much below what they'd cost in the real world (meaning, what you get per hour of scripting is probably noticeably below what you can get per hour of coding in your country). Through all of it, you'll have to be your own programmer, marketing department and businessman, because involving any more people makes it even less profitable. Through all of that you have to contend with that everything in SL is intangible. With no materials other than perhaps hosting costs for things that require external servers, anything you offer for cash, somebody else could offer for free.

    Now, despite all this, I'll say that selling things in SL can be a very nice experience, despite the low income you get from it. At least for me personally having something I made byself get used by several hundred people and personally hearing feedback gives a much nicer feeling than being a faceless drone in a corporation, even though the corporation pays a lot better.

    1. Re:Bullshit by jafuser · · Score: 1

      The main problem with banks in SL is that there's no legitimate way for them to make money. They can't give out loans because there is no collateral. You could take out a loan, cash it out to US$, stop playing SL on that account, and create a new one.

      One might suggest having them hold land as collateral, but if the bank takes control of the land, then they would have to pay Linden Lab the tier fees on the land, which will almost certainly be more expensive than what they get back in interest on the loan.

      --
      Please consider making an automatic monthly recurring donation to the EFF
  23. Wait a minute, lets break this down. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    >"Silicon Valley gossip rag Valleywag is carrying a story about Second Life being a new >spin on the old pyramid scheme.

    um ... ok?

    > The article, which consists mostly of selections from the report of financial consultant >Randolph Harrison

    ok, never heard of him ...
    >, suggests that not only are most people deceived about the amount of money they can make >in Second Life, but also about how easily they can withdraw it.

    Its like anything else, to make money you have to work or have a product that people want to buy in sl. It's really no more, no less complex in sl than in rl.

    The secondlife.com website explains _exactly_ how to "withdraw" the money by means of bank transfer, credit card or paypal. anybody who knows how to use a paypal account should have no misconception as to how easy or difficult this process is.

    >It says 'Like the paid
    >promotion infomercials that run on CNBC, sadly SecondLife is a giant magnet for the >desperate, uninformed, easily victimized. Its promises of wealth readily ensnare those who >can least afford to lose their money or lives to such scam in exactly the same way that >real estate investor seminars convince divorcees with low FICO scores to buy houses sight >unseen with no money down.'"

    SecondLife is a giant magnet for _people_. That _people_ in society today generally happen to be desperate, uninformed and easily victimized is not the fault of SecondLife or infomercials for that matter.

    Secondlife and infomercials aren't really comparable either. if anything SecondLife could be compared to having a TV. what you choose to watch on TV, likewise what you choose to take part in with secondlife, is really up to you.

    To put things into perspective a little. SecondLife is only really available to Literate English Speaking Adults who own State of the art computer systems connected to the Internet via some Broadband connection. Hardly a descriptive profile of desperate, uninformed, easily victimized individuals, wouldn't you say?

    Well then again, this _is_ ./ NO I did not rtfa

  24. Read the Article? by Zelos · · Score: 1

    I read the article, not sure I understand it properly (not that that generally seems to stop a lot of people commenting) It seems to be suggesting that SL is a pyramid scheme because the only way to get your in-game profits out of the game into US dollars is to sell your Linden Dollars to someone. However, as most of the money is controlled by Linden, unless there are lots of people willing to buy Linden Dollars, it's very hard to sell them. So in order to make money, you'd have to have a constant stream of people joining the game and buying Linden dollars, which makes it look like a pyramid scheme. Does that seem an accurate summary?

    1. Re:Read the Article? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      More like: He read some articles about how you can make real money in Second Life, tried to play it like a stock market, found out that he didn't earn any money that way, and concluded that it's like a pyramid scheme because he didn't get money by doing nothing. A pyramid scheme is about tricking people into believing that they can get money for nothing, and since that's what he believed, it must have been a pyramid scheme.

    2. Re:Read the Article? by osu-neko · · Score: 1

      Not really. Actually, a better summary would be this: we made virtual dollars from virtual investments, but when we tried to cash out, the exchange ate our profits so we ended up not making more than we put in. Because we couldn't make more money than we put in, it's a pyramid scheme.

      If boiled down to this, it seems like stupid logic, that's because it is. This whole article was clearly written by someone entirely clueless.

      It is in fact very easy to make money in SL. But you can't do it by investing, at least not yet. (If you try, you're likely to run into actual Ponzi schemes like (allegedly) Ginko Bank). You actually have to create things and sell them, or sell your services. If all you put into the game is money, you won't get any more out than you put in. Sorry.

      --
      "Convictions are more dangerous enemies of truth than lies."
  25. You shouldn't PLAY to make money by hajo · · Score: 1

    Second life has gotten hyped about its money making opportunities. STUPID! It's a friggin game.
    Investing in virtual real estate at the mercy of another company that can make limitless amounts of it: STUPID!
    However, hangliding, getting a cool outfit for your avatar, and chatting with friends that look better there than in real life: PRICELESS!

    And NO: It is NOT a pyramid scheme. It totally does not qualify under the legal definitions of a pyramid scheme. It's entertainment. Don't expect to get rich of it. (In general work and things that make you money are not necessarily pleasant; That is why you get paid. If it were all fun and games you'd have to pay your boss!)

    Hajo

    --
    Hajo Monogamy: Belief so strong that millions of people end perfectly good relationships in order to start a new one.
  26. Banks? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    He put money into the game, and in a bank, and then expected to earn more than in real life? He honestly thought he could earn money in second life, just by putting money in? Without doing anything?

    Second Life is not some kind of magic money maker. To make money you need to work for it. Build stuff. Not just stuff, but good stuff. Better than the stuff you get for free. Or become a prostitute (paid for cybersex), I'm sure there are enough lonely guys playing that you can earn some money that way.

    And for the rest of us, Second Life isn't about money. I started with a free account, and I still have no money, but I'm having fun. More fun than if I had been playing World of (some old RTS game). For me, it's a social place, and a place where I can play around with building and scripting things (much easier than Blender). Maybe someday I'll be good enough to make stuff I can sell, but that's not why I'm playing.

  27. KoL Addiction by kahei · · Score: 1


    Ha! Tell me about it!

    I am a victim of Kingdom of Loathing addiction. It's a web-based MMORPG in which you pick a class like Turtle Tamer or Seal Clubber and fight a variety of foes to gain items and skills. Sound familiar, huh? Well KoL takes it to a whole new level of abject, life-destroying addiction:

    -- Real-world buying and selling. KoL gear routinely reaches 15 or, for the rarest items, even 30 dollars on ebay! Just trying to keep up with high-level characters can result in a second mortgage or even involuntary organ donation.

    -- Time sink. You start with 40 -- count them, 40! -- turns a day, and with skill that can easily become as much as 200. That means 200 page views, taking maybe as much as 40-45 minutes a day! True, use of scripting can reduce that to more like 5 minutes but even so it's enough to drain your whole life away!

    -- Vicious competition. Every time you reach a certain level you are encouraged to start your character again from square one. That means hardly any characters are consistently stronger or weaker than others -- resulting in a mad endless scramble for levels, or at least confusion.

    -- Griefers. Optional PvP combat not only allows stronger players to win imaginary flowers from weaker ones, it can even result in a rude message from the victor appearing at the top of your screen -- thus crushing the souls of new players and convincing them that they must play ever harder to catch up!

    -- Haiku. Channels such as #haiku, locations such as the Haiku Dungeon and unhelpful, mean-spirited clans such as my own Haiku Vikings spread a cold, rigid, and uncompromising doctrine of 17-syllabled communication, locking victims even further into the cult mindset.

    These are just SOME of the ways in which KoL gets its claws into you and destroys your life! Ban KoL now! If only I'd played Second Life or WoW or Everquest... but alas, it's too late... now back to KoL for a gruelling 10 minutes of hitting yetis with a duck on a string... or is it the other way round...

    But seriously, KoL shows that multiplayer online games don't _have_ to have a ripoff/addiction element.

    --
    Whence? Hence. Whither? Thither.
  28. It's a game! by Thumper_SVX · · Score: 3, Interesting

    It's not a game in the classical sense that there's a goal to be accomplished, scores and so forth... but it is nonetheless a game.

    I got into SL a few months back mostly out of curiosity. I didn't buy into the hype being generated by the media and checked it out because I was intrigued (as I have always been) at the concept of virtual realities. I was always a big fan of Gibson and the Cyberpunk novels in general and so I already had a "primer" in the thoughts behind virtual worlds.

    Now, SL is not perfect. Not by a long shot. It's sometimes laggy, crash prone and buggy... but it IS enjoyable. I have friends I made through SL whom I probably would never have met in RL. I used to get on IRC a lot about a decade ago, and this provides similar interaction in my opinion. I enjoyed IRC because at the time I lived in East London, and getting on IRC provided me a way of meeting and communicating with people all over the world. Although now I've not logged into IRC in 7 or 8 years some of those same people are still my friends, and they were instrumental in helping me when I decided to move to the US 10 years ago. I don't predict I'm going to make another similar move, but SL provides me with the same sense of community I got back then.

    Now, as far as the pyramid scheme thing goes... please! Take a look through secondlife.com (the official site). Although the idea of selling your creations or renting property is discussed, it's not plastered on the main page "Make Massive $$$$$$ Now" or something like that. Linden Labs for all their faults are selling SL as what it is; a virtual world, a community and a creativity tool. If you are creative enough and good enough with the built-in building tools, then you can sell your wares to others and make a little cash. I know some people who do this and make enough in-world L$ to "shop" occasionally. Sometimes they even make enough that they can "own" a small plot of land and have their monthly fees covered by their sales. I have never known anyone personally who makes a massive profit. In that regard, it's more like real-life... if you have a marketable skill (avatar building or building models of ships, houses, furniture etc.) and know how to market it properly you can make some in-world money. If not, you won't. It's that simple. There are no more huge opportunities to make "phat cash" in SL than there are in real life. The only advantage of SL is that it's still a relatively untapped market if you're creative enough.

    Hell, I make some L$ in-world by creating real art. I draw, sometimes ink and paint... then I upload a texture and map it onto a simple prim with a nice frame... voila... one saleable item that people will buy to hang in their property. I don't make much, but I cover expenses... and I get to keep the original :) Plus I get kudos from friends who check out my store when I create a new piece... or comments (positive or negative) depending. I like that... it's communal. I don't expect to get rich from it... in fact I doubt I'll ever have to worry about withdrawing L$ from SL so I can't speak to how easy it is to withdraw.

    The media has created the pyramid scheme, not SL... and certainly not the majority of the denizens of that virtual world. They're the ones selling the idea that you can get rich quick in SL... Linden I don't think has ever claimed that. Oh, and the SL "millionaires"? Have you seen the exchange rate of L$ to USD? An SL "millionaire" probably has as much in their "bank account" (read that as SL account) in real world $ as I do in my bank account. I am not rich... in fact there are months I juggle bills like everyone else. Plus, I have to note that there were probably more scams being thrown at me in IRC 10 years ago than I have seen in SL. It's just the media ignored IRC because it wasn't "cool" to be geeky back then. The same things have happened... they just have an extra coat of polish and eye-candy.

  29. I sold my virtual booty for $500L by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    How many games allow you to do that?

  30. Tulips anyone? by BillGatesLoveChild · · Score: 1

    Does anyone know anyone who has had a *bad* experience (as in, lost money) with Second Life?

    All I hear about in the popular press is Anshe Chung, Anshe Chung, Anshe Chung. These give you the distinct impression there's millions to be made, easily. If anyone has experience to the contrary, lets hear it...

    1. Re:Tulips anyone? by Pym · · Score: 1

      I've had a SL account for little over a year now, and know a few people who are making in the four and five figures a year profit from it (mostly land). My impression is that unless you're actually doing a scam, it's very time consuming to make a lot of money. People join thinking that just because it's a game, and it has a real money output if they make enough in-game, it must be less work and time than it would be to make money in the real world. I'm seeing that that just isn't true. Most of the big earners I know end up spending huge amounts of time tending their business, so it's far from get-rich-quick.

      Me, I keep out of the earning part of the game. Like any entertainment, you should spend only what you think the entertainment is worth. The whole idea of it becoming so important because of earnings seems... I got a full time job already!

  31. Nothing to see here, move along... by itwerx · · Score: 1

    Having just read both of TFAs I really have to question the sanity of the author - it's a goddamned game! You could replace "Second Life" in that article with ANY role playing game all the way back to the original Red Book (Blue Book? whatever) paper editions of D&D.

    1. Re:Nothing to see here, move along... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Perfectly sane. The keyword is "arbitrage". It translates in the real world as "free money" (seriously).

      His scheme was:

      1. Exchange USD to SLL (linden dollars)
      2. Muck around a bit
      3. Game the "banks" in SL to get a better interest rate on SSL than he would in the real world on USD
      4. Exchange SLL back to USD
      5. Profit! (an ambition of many here on /. over the years)

      He's just explaining why it doesn't work. He then goes on to make the very socially useful/responsible observation that a lot of very vulnerable people could get hurt (if only through lost time better spent in real world jobs) through this, while benefiting a very small number of people "at the top of the pyramid"

      Great article IMO, very thoughtful and he's pointed something out that probably needs wider attention. These virtual worlds are unregulated currently and real people can (will) get hurt for real.

    2. Re:Nothing to see here, move along... by itwerx · · Score: 1

      The keyword is "arbitrage". It translates in the real world as "free money" (seriously).

      In that respect I suppose his article is pretty much correct, it's just extremely old news and not at all specific to Second Life. Not to mention he seems to cast aspersions without regard to who is really saying what.

  32. Poor Judgement costs money by DLG · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I have had a second life account for over a year. I have some typical number of Lindon dollars. I have never bought more. I have never spent any. I have no real understanding of the economy, except that if I want to import a graphic image into the system it costs money, so I don't.

    I am sure I am missing out, but lots of people have GIVEN me things that I assume cost someone money at some point. That of course dilutes the value of the investment. The pay back probably involves social status, similar to potlatch societies where whomever gives away more is the 'wealthiest'.

    Clearly the actual issue is how to convert ANY of that into real value, in a way that economists can equate either directly or analogously to real world value, such as income or return on investment.

    What this article does most effectively is highlight the lack of support for predictable commerce. The same is true in countries with unregulated financial systems, and the factors of anonymous commerce, no legal system, and essentially no reliable contract, means that the only commerce that is effective for most people involves commerce in which there is a low stake, which means that actual use and accumulation of wealth is both hindered, and less valuable.

    This is a vending machine economy. Its based on a million players putting in a quarter in a slot machine, or buy a new outfit, face, body etc... Things that are specifically part of the online environment (playing with toys or enhancing your visual representation)...

    -----

    Second Life really is more interesting because it is the equivalent of a Graphical MUSH where all the users have the ability to create items. I can create any number of items, and give them away or clone them. A good item may be worth something but since any good item can be reverse engineered and distributed at no cost, there is little value to developing quality code except for social praise. Real designers and coders actually can earn good livings in the 'FIRST WORLD' so most of what you see is toys made by people for fun, which makes alot of sense.

    -----

    Last but not least, its a crappy environment for real development. It is harder to output text in any meaningful format. Thats an intentional crippling to force people who want to create content to have to pay to input graphics, rather than write code to actually draw graphics. Pretty regressive considering the direction of the web, which enables REAL commerce and has created a good amount of wealth.

    ------

    When SecondLife stops being a scam, and supports real internet technology and openness, perhaps it will also draw the kind of mindshare that will create real value and an honest marketplace, but that is a different economic model. For now, its mostly a place to play john and whore and part of that means paying, and if that happens to let your one dollar turn into 250, then the game seems more exciting. If a grown woman and parent of two actually believes that earning 185 dollars a month for being a whore and a mule for money laundering is good money, then I guess thats what she deems herself worth. Hard to argue with that sort of capitalism.

  33. and this is different from real life... how? by oohshiny · · Score: 1

    How is this different from real life? Computers, stock options, stocks, homes, cars, home appliances, etc. are all sold with the promise that they save/make people lots of money, and they rarely deliver. Lots of people in real life have dreams of being their own boss and becoming independent, and they keep buying stuff supposedly allowing them to do it, but few ever make it. Financially prudent living involves purchasing very little, in real life or Second Life.

    Proper pyramid schemes also require more than broken promises of financial wealth, they require a very specific pattern of payment and recruitment, something that doesn't apply to Second Life's business model. Second Life may be a waste of money and it may make false promises of financial riches, but it's not a pyramid scheme.

    FWIW, Second Life does have pyramid schemes. They are actually--get this--pyramids that take your money and redistribute it.

    1. Re:and this is different from real life... how? by analog_line · · Score: 1

      Financially prudent living involves purchasing very little, in real life or Second Life.

      Not necessarily. Purchasing fewer luxuries is part of financially prudent living, but in business and personal life, I see way too many people stepping over dollars to pick up dimes. Paying for improvements in various efficiencies, most notably energy efficiency, which will directly translate to cost savings, often involves purchasing a significant amount of things.

    2. Re:and this is different from real life... how? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Paying for improvements in various efficiencies, most notably energy efficiency, which will directly translate to cost savings, often involves purchasing a significant amount of things.

      If you're spending enough on energy to be able to save a lot, you're using too much energy to begin with.

    3. Re:and this is different from real life... how? by analog_line · · Score: 1

      Right, so only the entire population of the United States would save a lot of money. You're right, nothing to see.

  34. I don't know much about the game... by brennanw · · Score: 1

    ... but isn't the economy supposed to be a secondary part of it? I thought it was basically a graphical MUSH -- i.e., you create your avatar, wander around and build stuff. Isn't the "virtual economy that translates into the real world" just a secondary feature that seems to be taking on a life of its own?

    If that's the case, I can't really consider it a pyramid scheme because that wouldn't be the primary selling point of the game. If it *is* the primary selling point of the game then the author's argument is a lot more compelling to me.

    --
    Eviscerati.Org: All Hail the Eviscerati
  35. Yes and you would be right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful
    The simple truth is that the more money you have the more easily you can make more money. So the people at the top of the scheme rake in all of it and the bottom still struggle.

    Another observation on the falsity of the economic trading system (because it isn't just stocks and shares we really mean is it when talking about stockmarkets) is how can there be more wealth than there are goods? At any moment whilst the cash machine of the super rich operates the wealth is greatly more valued than the sum of the real goods at its foundation.

    I suppose if the super rich all more or less simultaneously attempted to spend their money hyper mega super inflation would hit and only they would be able to afford anything which would rationalise the value in my previous paragraph.

    Meanwhile they don't have to do that because slowly over time they owned a bigger and bigger percentage of everything anyway but can't afford to rock the boat too much or they would have to grow there own food. Farming being the one of the most important jobs on my short list of most important jobs which doesn't include president, property tycoon or evil monopolist.

  36. Yes and no by bytesex · · Score: 2, Insightful

    But there seems to be a very vague understanding of what is a pyramid scheme among the /. crowd. A pyramid scheme is not just plain old deception, nor is any pyramid scheme illegal. A pyramid scheme is a market that can only go up because the amount of participants increases. Given a growing population, the housing market is an example of a pyramid scheme (that is, if you assume that nobody ever fixes up their house, or that houses don't automatically degenerate, but if you do that, and you get in early, then you're bound to win). The stock market in the nineties was a bit pyramid-like (it went up largely because the amount of players increased dramatically, and they all needed stock - any stock). I suppose 2nd life does generate value of its own (people are meeting other people, for example), so it's not entirely a pyramid scheme, at least.

    --
    Religion is what happens when nature strikes and groupthink goes wrong.
    1. Re:Yes and no by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      if it's unintentional (stock market, housing market, second life market - tbd) it might well be a pyramid, but it's not a "scheme".

  37. Mod parent funny by Brunellus · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    It's amusing that a statement like this can be treated with dead seriousness on /. Is this because geeks have an aversion to markets?

    1. Re:Mod parent funny by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Is this because geeks have an aversion to markets?

      No, it's because some of us have the ability to remember. (*cough* Enron Worldcom Global Crossing *cough*)

  38. Profit!! by Soulshift · · Score: 1

    Am I the only one thinking: Step 1: Openly deride Second Life a pyramid scheme. Step 2: Wait for the Linden Dollar to exchange rate to fall due to people dumping their L$. Step 3: Buy large amounts of L$. Step 4: ??? Step 5: Profit!!

    --
    node-def: a tactical hacking sim. Now in open beta.
  39. Why shouldn't he? by Rix · · Score: 1

    If they managed to make off with the money, why shouldn't he be on the hook for it?

    1. Re:Why shouldn't he? by kobaz · · Score: 1

      My point wasn't that he shouldn't be held responsible. My point was he was not thinking of even trying to fight to get this fixed.

      --

      The goal of computer science is to build something that will last at least until we've finished building it.
  40. The Linden is just another fiat currency. by gd23ka · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The first sentence of the Wikipedia article on "Fiat Currency" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_currency) reads:

    "In economics, fiat currency or fiat money is money that enjoys legal tender status derived from a declaratory fiat or an authoritative order of the government."

    It should read: Fiat currency is money that is backed by the trust in the promise that goods will be delivered in exchange.
    Neither the Euro nor the "modern" Federal Reserve Dollar are backed up by anything but promises, they are fiat currencies.
    What's more, the dollar is given out by a _private corporation_: "The Federal Reserve".

    If you give it enough tought you will find that the Linden has no more and no less substance than the US dollar. The only real
    difference between the two is that the USD is backed by a bunch of exceedingly tougher thugs who may or may not suffer the
    Linden.

    1. Re:The Linden is just another fiat currency. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      here is a difference between linden dollars and US dollars that anyone can understand.

      Linden dollars are not legal tender. You dont have to accept linden dollars as payment for a good/service. You do have to accept US dollars, in the US.

      Linden dollars are as good as monopoly money, or canadian tire money for those familiar. The currency is controlled by one entity that doesnt have the good of the public in mind.

  41. Other Pyramid Schemes by Skevin · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Real Estate must be a pyramid scheme because every time land changes hands, it's usually because the previous owner is selling it for more than he bought it for, never mind when each owner has developed the property some more.

    My stock shares of Coca Cola must be a pyramid scheme because (accounting for inflation) I paid more for them than the person before me, and he paid more for them than the person before him.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (12560.56 at last glance) must be a pyramid scheme because it represents people selling stocks for more than they bought it for. It's going to crash, I tell you.

    Scientific research might be a pyramid scheme because many successive discoveries rely on knowledge gleaned from past discoveries.

    Why is it that insufficiently educated journalists can point to value-added commodities with accusations of the P-word for the sake of sensationalism? Has it ever occurred to them that "Pyramid Schemes" are neither illegal nor unethical as long as something of value changes hands, and especially if that particular something can be developed or improved? It becomes morally wrong when that something in question changes hands with an artificially inflated price that does not properly demonstrate its commensurate worth. Whitewater could be thought of as an illegal pyramid scheme. Ponzi's operation was an illegal pyramid. "Make Money Fast!" was an unethical pyramid, albeit not illegal.

    There are many legitimate operations that can be thought of as a pyramid scheme, but if one starts thinking of them that way, please refrain from thinking the P-word is a bad thing.

    Solomon Chang

    --
    "Twice half-assed makes an ass whole." --Solomon K. Chang
    1. Re:Other Pyramid Schemes by pixelite · · Score: 1

      Aren't you one of the so called 'land barons' in second life that every new
      person in second life aspires to become?

      Or are you some other chang, not related to the in game chang?

      im just curious.

      --
      >>Sig under construction
    2. Re:Other Pyramid Schemes by nine-times · · Score: 1

      Whitewater could be thought of as an illegal pyramid scheme.

      Ummm..... Whitewater was illegal. Several people were found guilty of fraud. Just because Bill Clinton was never shown to have knowledge about the illegal activities doesn't mean that there weren't illegal activities.

      Also, no one is claiming that simply selling something for more than you bought it is a pyramid scheme. A pyramid scheme is a particular model where a constant influx of new investors are necessary in order to pay off older investors because the "business" in question doesn't actually generate any wealth.

    3. Re:Other Pyramid Schemes by alienmole · · Score: 2, Informative

      "A pyramid scheme is a non-sustainable business model that involves the exchange of money primarily for enrolling other people into the scheme, usually without any product or service being delivered." So no, none of the things you mention are pyramid schemes.

      The article's point is not that the economy within SL is a pyramid scheme itself, but rather that "withdrawing money from the Benchmark-backed virtual world is about as hard as cashing out of a pyramid scheme". In particular, he's referring to the alleged $220m "GDP" of SL, most of which is almost certainly not convertible to real dollars.

    4. Re:Other Pyramid Schemes by dreddnott · · Score: 1

      Oh my goodness. You're thinking of Anshe Chung, which is the name of Ailin Graef's avatar on Second Life.

      Solomon Chang is a MySQL-certified DBA.

      Want to sell your Slashdot UID? ;)

      --
      I may make you feel, but I can't make you think.
    5. Re:Other Pyramid Schemes by indigoid · · Score: 2, Funny

      Want to sell your Slashdot UID? ;)

      you must be new here!

      --
      P-plate adventurer
    6. Re:Other Pyramid Schemes by pixelite · · Score: 1

      Not really interested in selling my UID but maybe i can be persuaded with the appropriate offer...

      --
      >>Sig under construction
  42. What people don't know about the US Dollar... by Svartalf · · Score: 1

    While it's not backed by gold or silver, it IS backed by a commodity's valuation...

    Stop and think about what one thing that everyone in the "first world" countries want that is a natural resource...
    That one thing can only be bought with ONE currency. You can't buy it in Euros, Francs, etc.- only in US Dollars.

    Once you realize this, many of the things that the US does and have done over the years snap into clarity.

    --
    I am not merely a "consumer" or a "taxpayer". I am a Citizen of the State of Texas
    1. Re:What people don't know about the US Dollar... by qbzzt · · Score: 1

      A currency that is backed by a commodity is one that is pegged in value to that commodity. If there is a bank that commits to take a $20 bill and give me an ounce of gold, then the USD is gold backed. If there is a gold merchant you would gave given me an ounce of gold for $250 in 2000 and would give me one for $650 today, and does not commit to any future exchange rate, then the dollar is not backed by gold.

      Similarly, since the cost of a barrel of oil varies and nobody commits to a future price beyond a year or so, the dollar is not backed by oil. The fact that oil producers decided to accept dollars is irrelevant - they can change their mind tomorrow.

      --
      -- Support a free market in the field of government
    2. Re:What people don't know about the US Dollar... by DarenN · · Score: 2, Informative

      That used to be true, but not any more! Now it can be bought in Dollars AND Euro

      --
      Rational thought is the only true freedom
  43. Examples of a Pyramid scheme by UncleGizmo · · Score: 1

    The author makes some interesting [and I believe, valid] points. However, the implication is that [by calling it "pyramid" and "Ponzi" scheme], there is something either illegal or at the least, unethical going on.

    Call me libertarian, but I'm having a hard time seeing how this is any different in concept from banking in the real world, albeit much higher risk -- you get a small rate of return, the banks take a cut by using the combined saved money of their customers as assets to invest and reap higher rates. Same thing happens if you're rich enough to invest in someone's hedge fund [or buy alpacas, for that matter]. It also seems to me that investing real money in a virtual world that is completely unregulated is a high-risk investment with low potential returns [seeing as how there is no recourse for collecting on successful arbitrage]. Caveat emptor, no surprise there.

    Perhaps it wasn't explained clearly enough to me, but the concept of a pyramid or Ponzi scheme requires that investors recruit others to invest, then taking a cut themselves, as the money moves up the chain. Repeated ad nauseum, the farther down the chain investors are, the more they lose until the entire thing collapses. The other element for it to be this type of scheme [in the illegal sense] is that there is nothing being traded per se of value in a Ponzi scheme -- the thing that makes it work is the churn of the money. I guess we could argue whether the assets within the game = something of value, but that's a different point entirely.

    --
    Who put this thing together? Me, that's who.
  44. Oblig by GeePrime · · Score: 1

    This isn't one of those crazy pyramid schemes...Our symbol, is the rhombus!

  45. Warning: small novelette ahead by mentatultima · · Score: 2, Informative

    The problem is that they are "investing money" into lindens and hoping the exchange rate changes. Linden Labs as specifically "pegged" the linden to the dollar. I track it and it usually has been consist to about 1000L for abojut $4/US. Lindens are strictly controlled, it is not easy to just make large amounts of linens, ( I know I have tried :) ). Most of this is planned, they hired an economist to help control the economy. Linden labs makes $.30 US on each buy and about 3.5% on each sale. Sales of lindens tend to act as stocks, meaning you put in a sell order and wait for some to bid on the lindens. buys are typically much faster though.

    There is one example of linden dumping to control linden prices, quote: "In the second half of September we sold L$20,117,994 to prevent rapid appreciation of the L$. " . http://blog.secondlife.com/2006/10/03/linden-dolla r-economy-update-2/ it is on there blogs.

    From the website (https://secure-web4.secondlife.com/currency/descr ibe-transaction-fees.php): Fees for Buying L$ You will be charged a fixed fee of $0.30 per transaction regardless of the amount of L$ you purchase.

    Fees for Selling L$ Sellers of currency pay a fee of 3.5% per transaction. Proceeds will be credited to your US$ account balance.

    Yes there are limits to trading, unless you apply for higher limits:
    https://secure-web4.secondlife.com/currency/descri be-limits.php

    So if you read the article, he was trying to do currency trading on a pegged currency, not the greatest idea. He got the same amount going in as going out minus the trasnaction fees, gee go figure.

    And if you want to look at the economic statistics: http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy_stats.php Which also lists the sources and sinks, most of the money made by linden labs is from transaction fees, tier fees (fees for owning land or islands), and membership fees.

    Linen exchange market data: http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy-market.php More useful economic statistics: http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy-graphs.php

    Another interesting thing is that lindens are not produced, except by "allowances" given to residents and non-residents weekly. In WOW (world of warcraft) the server producers more gold when creatures are killed. Hence the lindens in Sl are an artifical scarcity, which is what all real world currencies are.

    Not everything is sunshine and roses though:

    There are some problems with the economy though:

    1. land prices have gone out the roof. It is nearly impossible to buy land without spending around $100US worth of lindens. land prices for purchase vary between 17L and more per M. How and what you can build on the land depends on the conventant or contract for the land and how much land you own. For the covenants, think home owners association. Plus for private islands you may not actually own the land, and if the island owner does not pay up his tier fees then the island itself may go into remiss.

      Yes, you can get equivilent work much cheaper in SL by paying in lindens. Although the prices needed for contracted services have been going up steadily. I have had several friends in SL quit doing contracting because it does not pay enough for the effort even corporate sponsorship. I do know of some contracting companies that make enough to survive on though.

      Problems with stability during the updates, this can be especially painful as shops cannot sell when SL is down, and sometimes products break during updates or on rare occassions inventory disappears during updates.

      Land values going down or becoming unusable due

  46. Banks have to build trust by clawsoon · · Score: 2, Interesting
    It turns out that inside the game, counterparty risk is tremendous. In fact, entire banks will suddenly disappear. Or banks will simply renege on obligations without recourse.

    This is not a sign of a pyramid scheme, it's a sign of underdeveloped institutions. It happens in most societies which are first developing banks and stock markets. (Shouldn't a finance writer remember John Law and the Banque Générale?)

    Banking institutions develop in roughly three stages.

    First there's the banks-disappearing stage (John Law et al), where fabulous returns are promised, but half the time you never see your money again. Europe went through this stage in the early 1700s.

    Then there's the Neoclassical stage: Banks build impressive buildings to let people know that they plan to be around for a long time, and to give the impression that they have been around for a long time. This stage arrived in China in the 1920s, when governments weren't stable enough to provide client protection, so banks had to give the impression that they could shoulder the burden all on their own. An impressive building and serious/professional bank managers/tellers help maintain the impression, which is critical if people who got burned in the first stage are going to be convinced to bring their money out from under their mattresses. (Banks built in the 1930s in small-town America have much the same look.)

    Finally, there's the government regulation/deposit protection stage. Banks can tuck themselves into the corner beside the Starbucks and the tellers can chew bubble gum, because we know that the government will, most of the time, enforce regulations needed to keep our deposits safe. We don't need the impressive facades anymore, because we trust the institutions.

    It sounds like Second Life is still at the first stage. Over time, if the economy continues to develop, expect the Neoclassical stage to develop. Certain players, or groups of players, will build up a reputation for dependability; they will enhance that reputation with professional presentation. Will they build banks with fluted Corinthian columns? Maybe not, but they'll have something equivalent.

    Interestingly, these trades tended to net returns of right around 4%, which was the prevailing dollar deposit rate.
    This is not a pyramid scheme. This is an apparent arbitrage opportunity that turned out not to be an actual arbitrage opportunity, but, rather, a fairly conservative, boring investment.
  47. Get a First Life by Hugo+Graffiti · · Score: 1

    Check this out, quite funny.

  48. The Front Page by Petersko · · Score: 1

    " Although the idea of selling your creations or renting property is discussed, it's not plastered on the main page "Make Massive $$$$$$ Now" or something like that."

    Well... from the front page:

    US$ Spent Last 24h: $1,017,876

    1. Re:The Front Page by Thumper_SVX · · Score: 1

      Heh... OK... I concede that!

      However, if an individual is actually dumb enough to believe that a million dollars in 24 hours actually could be channelled to their own account, then they deserve to be scammed. The simple fact is that the amount spent could be subscription fees, land sales / purchases... not to mention donations and so forth. Yes, you can theoretically carve yourself out a piece of that pie, but aren't you doing the exact same thing every time you play the lottery? Hell, every time you go to work you're doing that too.

      Personally, I don't see that on the front page as a "draw" as such. I never did... I personally just find it an interesting point of trivia... kind of like the summaries my email server produces of "x number of emails in the last 24 hours, y Gb transferred, z spam mails identified" etc. If someone sees these numbers and thinks "All that money should be going into my pocket. I'll sign up right now and go take it!" then quite frankly they deserve everything they get from then on because they failed to adequately research the opportunities and risks.

      I still think my main point stands, though; SL is no more of a pyramid scheme than Email, Usenet, IM, IRC, etc. It's a tool that yes, people can use to facilitate a pyramid scheme... but it is not in itself a pyramid scheme. At least not from my perspective.

  49. How to they handle IP in SL? by maillemaker · · Score: 1

    So I'm curious, then, having not "played" Second Life. If anyone can make anything in the game, what prevents people from copying other people's things? If the answer is "nothing", why are people able to sell things they make?

    --
    A work that expires before its copyright never enters the public domain and thus enjoys eternal copyright protection.
    1. Re:How to they handle IP in SL? by vadim_t · · Score: 1

      There's the "copybot", which can duplicate objects. But it can only duplicate what you see. This means that scripts, contents of objects, etc can't be duplicated automatically.

        Simple objects (avatars, buildings) are vulnerable to this, but many others aren't. For example vehicles consist of a shape which you can duplicate, and a set of scripts that makes it move that you can't. So you could copy the vehicle's shape but that wouldn't work as a vehicle, so you'd have to script it. Depending on what the scripts do, it could be a lot easier to just buy it.

      Duplication by hand is difficult. Some things you can buy in-world are complex, with thousands of lines of code tuned over a long time for a particular purpose.

      Sure, IF you're a coder, and IF you have a lot of time, you could spend say, 2 weeks remaking something. But that thing sells for maybe $10. Is it worth your time as a programmer to spend 70 hours of work to avoid buying a $10 item?

      The same way, in the real world I could grow my own potatoes. But most people don't, for the simple reason that often buying stuff from somebody else who dedicates to it on a large scale is much easier and cheaper than doing it yourself.

    2. Re:How to they handle IP in SL? by PhilipMckrack · · Score: 1

      When objects are created there are flags available that let you set limits on your creation. You can make it copy or no-copy. You can make it so the person you sell it to cannot give it away, you can make it so they can give it away one time only if it's a reseller, or you can make it so it can be given away endlessly. You can also make it not able to be modified so people have to use what you sell them and they can't tailor it do whatever they want.

      Say you make a 1969 Chevy Camaro convertable. It's an incredibly detailed object and probably took weeks if not months to create. You are more than likely going to mark it up as no-copy, non-modifyable, and no trade. Anyone who wants one has to buy it from you and they can't ever give it or sell it to anyone else. If someone else were to make one, that's out of your control, but considering the time and effort involved it is highly unlikely. Most people skilled and dedicated enough to make an object that complex would be working on something not already in the game.

      There are lots and lots of free, copyable objects on Second Life, but most of the really complex items are not sold that way.

  50. What has Valley Wag got against SL? by cruachan · · Score: 1

    Because every article they do on it seems to consist of nothing more than setting up Straw Men and knocking them down. SL is a social game with pretensions - at core basically IRC plus a 3D environment so there's more to do and talk about with friends then simply hang on channels. I've never met anyone stupid enough to invest in SL in the way their 'Financial Advisor' suggests and it's difficult to imagine anyone with more than half a brain who would do.

    There may be business opportunities in SL on RL scales, but they are rare. Many more people are content to play at running a business in SL and make money on SL scales, and if that's how you have fun who's to say it's wrong? Even the 'escorts' who charge only one or two USD an hour can hardly be doing it for a living.

    SL could develop into something more interesting (and if you code the scripting language, LSL, whist broken in places is sufficiently powerful to be really rather fun) or it may not. Anyone who plays SL at this point who isn't primarily adopting a "I'll have fun a see where it leads" attitude is an idiot, but equally it'd be wrong to insist there's no potential there at all.

    Case in point, myself and a friend are trying to develop something in LSL that we think could have potential and wide appeal using RL development standards (most stuff coded in SL is hobbyist level). If by an amazing longshot it succeeds and I make significant RL money then great, if it succeeds less so and makes significant SL money (i.e. a few hundred $ in RL) then equally great, and it it fails then no problem - I'm only investing the amount of time I would be playing another game anyway, and I'll have made a lot of friends and had a lot of fun in the process.

  51. Legitimate profit from Second Life by TenMinJoe · · Score: 2, Informative

    My sister works in Second Life. She has a job, paying real money (UK pounds, not Linden dollars) with a real, bricks and mortar design agency, and every day she goes to work in their real office, sits at her desk, logs in to SL, takes her avatar to work inside their virtual office, and gets to work.

    Her company is paid by e.g. bands or designer clothing brands to create a "Second Life Presence" for them inside "the grid". It's a lot like hiring a web designer to build a web site - you hire a Second Life design company to build you a virtual tropical island, or whatever. People come to your virtual island, maybe you have virtual examples of your virtual products there, they like them, they buy them in real life... profit!

    This seems like an entirely legitimate and mutually beneficial arrangement for all concerned; Second Life definitely can be used to make real money without scamming anyone. That's not to say it's not ALSO scamming people, of course.

    1. Re:Legitimate profit from Second Life by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think the whole point of the article, if you had actually read it, is that the whole game *system* is rigged -- eg the transformation between Linden Dollars and real-world cash. The fact that you can't do big transactions on LindeX since it is an auction system (so not a real currency exchange institution) and you need to go through third-parties which will rip you off any sensible profit you'll try to make is what we are talking about.

      In a few words: wouldn't your sister make more money for the same work in the real world? Or maybe, for any work?

  52. Yes, But How Many Pyramid Schemes Let You by aquatone282 · · Score: 1

    . . . attack other members with flying penises?

    --
    What?
  53. Star Trek Holodeck anyone? by master_p · · Score: 1

    It's good we haven't had holodecks yet, because they will totally mess up society. Everyone will be in one, living their phantasies, with lots of virtual sex, of course.

    1. Re:Star Trek Holodeck anyone? by geminidomino · · Score: 1

      It's good we haven't had holodecks yet, because they will totally mess up society. Everyone will be in one, living their phantasies, with lots of virtual sex, of course. Comment #1: The word is spelled "Fantasy." You play too many RPGs. ;) PS was truly an awesome series.

      comment #2: Just think of the blossoming "Holodeck Cleaning" industry!
  54. but after all the hype....? by crivens · · Score: 1

    This would be somewhat interesting if Second Life was actually decent. I played for ten minutes and was shocked to find a stuttering, laggy, visually stunted piece of junk. Ok so I'm being overly critical, but after all the hype....?

  55. Looks like a High Yield Investment Program by Animats · · Score: 1

    That's fascinating.

    The reason the author calls it a Ponzi scheme is that it strongly resembles the scam known as a High Yield Investment Program. These schemes make it very difficult to get money out, so that, while the customer's investment appears to be increasing, it can't actually be converted to some other form of value. And in the end, the "HYIP" always goes bust. That seems to be exactly what high-interest "in-game banks" are doing.

    The other problem is that the currency trading market in Second Life only trades about $40,000 per day. So if you try to sell $10,000 worth of SLL, the market moves too much. There's insufficient liquidity for trading.

    1. Re:Looks like a High Yield Investment Program by GigsVT · · Score: 1

      Daily volume is more like $185,000 USD per day on LindeX. That's only one exchange, the other exchanges do at least $10,000 a day too.

      Selling $10,000 USD in Lindens... I can do that in an hour or two if you want competitive rates, or immediate if you are ok selling against the market buys (on the other side of the spread). It wouldn't even cause a breakout, there's generally about 20 million lindens within 10 of the spread... at most it would move the market a point or two.

      In short, you are completely wrong.

      --
      I've had enough abrasive sigs. Kittens are cute and fuzzy.
    2. Re:Looks like a High Yield Investment Program by Animats · · Score: 1

      Today's volume on LindX is L$38,744,689. Todays average exchange rate is L$269.0276 / US$1.00, or US$144,030. So there's some hope of moving US$10,000. But it's going to affect the rate some.

    3. Re:Looks like a High Yield Investment Program by GigsVT · · Score: 1

      There's 10 million sitting on the limit buy side of the spread. A market sell of up to $36,000 USD wouldn't move the market at all.

      Not even one point.

      --
      I've had enough abrasive sigs. Kittens are cute and fuzzy.
  56. Re: are you sure? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    I make $1500 US a month from Second Life
    Ahem. We're not talking about prostitution.

    p.s. Amusingly, my verification word is girlish. (http://images.slashdot.org/hc/50/518f650c1fa6.jpg )
  57. Should have kept reading those wikipedia articles by A+Name+Similar+to+Di · · Score: 1

    What's more, the dollar is given out by a _private corporation_: "The Federal Reserve".

    I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "given out", if you walk into the federal reserve, they certainly aren't handing out currency. However, I take issue with naming them a "private corporation". From the wikipedia article: "The Federal Reserve System is a quasi-governmental banking system composed of (1) a presidentially-appointed Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C.; (2) the Federal Open Market Committee; ...." and from the related article on the FOMC: "the Federal Reserve System, is charged under U.S. law with overseeing open market operations in the United States, and is the principal tool of US national monetary policy".

    A quasi government operation with presidentially appointed members and charged by U.S. law is /not/ something I would go around portraying as a "private corporation". The fed is rather a very unique and different beast. The chief reason why the Fed is /not/ strictly a part of the government has more to do with the long running problems where politicians and governments tampered with monetary policy and created large monetary economic problems. In 1951 independence was granted to the Fed for similar reasons and the Fed has remained independent for these same reasons. A politically independent entity is important to the integrity of a currency for both domestic and foreign investors. Great, so we're on the same page, the fed isn't really a private corporation... it's a unique entity.

    Now, is the Linden a Fait currency? I'll agree that the USD and the Linden are the same when it comes to conceptually gasping currency, but they differ widely in terms of backers /and/ credibility. The US Government isn't just a bunch of thugs (as you called them) backing their currency, they are also a credible backer so far as they attempt to stabilize the value of their currency. It is this stability (due to monetary policy, the rather permanent nature of the US Government, etc) that makes it important to others.

    So while the Linden may fit the criteria of a fixed exchange rate currency, I would not compare it to the USD. The Linden does not have an independent central bank (as the US and most western countries do), does not have a transparent or credible means (at least that I can find) of backing their currency.

    I think the more interesting question is what if there was a classic "bank run" in Second Life? Could Linden pay up? The US banks are FDIC insured.

  58. Ah.... by Snowmit · · Score: 1

    THERE's the backlash.

    Hello Backlash, we've been waiting for you!

    --
    I have a lot of opinions about Cyborgs and Architects
  59. ETF, ftw by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I completely agree about index funds, I'm really amazed more people haven't caught on yet - you can pick whatever you want to track, it's so easy. They're a simple way to make money off major trends which are a lot easier to predict than individual company performance. For example, I put a chunk of money into an emerging markets ETF because based on my research it seemed like emerging markets would see a lot of growth. It didn't matter which specific companies the ETF tracked, to recreate the same effect I would of had to do weeks of research on hundreds of foreign companies. Of course emerging markets have grown tremendously and should for at least a few more years (compare EEM or VWO to QQQQ or SPY). I'm shifting into nanotech for the next "high risk" play once I pull some profits out later this year, they've got ETFs which track nanotech stocks now so it's easy.

    1. Re:ETF, ftw by UbuntuDupe · · Score: 1

      Er, AC, when you start to time sectors and chase short-term returns like that, you're drifting away from index investing and into active management, defeating the purpose of an index fund. (ETF's are index funds that trade as regular stocks, for those who didn't know.)

    2. Re:ETF, ftw by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm not chasing shot-term returns, sorry to give that impression. I was talking about multi-year investments; to use the example of the emerging market ETF shares I own - besides pulling a bit out to dump into a nanotech ETF, that money is sitting there for many more years. Unless something fundamental changes, the dollar isn't going to strengthen and the developing nations will keep up their tremendous growth, it would be stupid to pull out. I imagine you could make money chasing short-term returns in ETFs to the same extent as you could with stocks, I actually expect to see some declines over the next three to six months so if I wanted to get more active I'd probably pull out soon and then get back in during the decline. Really I try to think of ETFs more along the lines of a mutual fund than a normal stock. I figure out where the big trends are and then allocate money into the ETFs which best capture the benefits. It seems to work a hell of a lot better than wasting time researching a bunch of individual companies, but then maybe I'm biased since I put so much money into emerging markets and they have been outperforming everything the entire time.

    3. Re:ETF, ftw by Estanislao+Mart�nez · · Score: 1

      I bet you would have invested in the railroads in the mid 19th century, and aviation and electronics in the mid-20th. And lost money, like most everybody else who did.

      It doesn't matter if something's going to be the next hot technology if the stocks are overvalued. If you want to cash in into such sectors, you need to get into the act at a point well before the companies go IPO.

    4. Re:ETF, ftw by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0


      We're talking about ETFs here, there isn't any IPO.

      Do you really think nanotech is going to be overvalued in the next 6 months or so relative to where it will be in a few years? Or that emerging markets are going to crash before I cash out in another 5 years or so?

      Also, I'd take issue with your example of investing in aviation or electronics in the mid 20th, assuming an ETF which tracked either sector existed then and I did invest in them I'd be crazy rich today (assuming I held for the long-term, which is generally my inclination). Now if I invested in specific companies which have died during that time period I would of lost my money, but ETFs represent a large basket of stocks. A single company isn't going to wipe out the value so the hypothetical mid-20th century ETFs would struggle through any major hits like that. The issue here is the timespan you hold on to the investment, going back to emerging markets - if I buy $10K of VWO today and hold it for 10 years the only thing that will lose me money is if something catastrophic happens which effects the entire sector. The risk is not in any single one company, it's in the entire sector. The benefit is there too, so the question is only how much growth will we see in emerging markets and how accurately will VWO track that growth. Yes, past performance does not guarantee future returns blah blah blah - but the fact is the trend is always upward. Unless you pull out on a big down-turn or invest in specific companies which die, you're going to make some degree of profit.

      Personally, I've put my money down on emerging markets continue their growth for at least five more years and on a nanotech bubble sometime within the next decade (probably no sooner than 3 years from now though, which is why I'm not in a rush to get into that ETF). This seems like a hell of a lot easier and less risky strategy than trying to hunt the next big thing and get in before an IPO. I'm not running a VC firm here, I'm just playing beat the market with a bit of my savings.

  60. "It's just a game" by Karganeth · · Score: 1

    I know, playing a game to make money is ridiculous. Imagine if someone played a game such as basketball, football or even soccer to make money! That'd be absurd. Oh, wait...

    The same concept applies to virtual games (yes, they are still games), allowing them to be a profitable practise.

  61. Obligatory... by ruiner13 · · Score: 1

    Why don't people try getting a first life?

    --

    today is spelling optional day.

  62. Not a closed system. by Xoltri · · Score: 1

    I'm not sure why people are calling this a closed system. I personally played Second Life for a total of an hour before I decided I didn't like it, but I have played and made money in Asheron's Call (Microsoft/Turbine) and Anarchy Online was my job for 6 months and I made about 10,000US playing it exclusively for profit. The reason why I do not see this as a closed system is because the people putting money into it are taking something out...entertainment. And while that is not a tangible item it is still just as valuable in a videogame as it is in real life. You don't leave with anything after a movie or a trip to a casino, how is that different?

    --
    -Xoltri
    1. Re:Not a closed system. by GigsVT · · Score: 1

      If you joined SL thinking you were "playing a game", it's no wonder you quit after an hour. It's not a game, as you found out. It's more like a 3D web. If that doesn't appeal to you then so be it.

      --
      I've had enough abrasive sigs. Kittens are cute and fuzzy.
  63. Great sig by alienmole · · Score: 1
    public void Ballmer(Developers developers) throws Chair
    ROFL. So clever!
    1. Re:Great sig by rkanodia · · Score: 1

      Shouldn't he return a ceo, and not void?

    2. Re:Great sig by alienmole · · Score: 1

      I took the "void" as being a comment on maybe his morals or the content of his personality.

    3. Re:Great sig by alienmole · · Score: 1

      ...or alternatively, you give him developers and he gives back nothing. IOW, he chews up developers (and doesn't even spit them out!)

  64. A rebuttal by Erbo · · Score: 1
    For a counterbalancing opinion, make sure and read this post on Second Life Insider by Tateru Nino, SL Mentor, journalist, and all-around superwoman. Some excerpts:
    In fact, as hype pieces go, this one is nonpareil. It takes the SL hype, and exaggerates it to a point not even the media believes, then compares it to outdated circumstances in a vague and unverifiable report allegedly (but apparently actually not) made when the Second Life economy was less than a tenth of its current size. Way to compare Buicks to boysenberries there, boys. Apples and oranges are virtual clones by comparison.

    [...]

    Some of it will certainly give you a laugh if you're familiar with Second Life's economic and exchange system as it stands. Further, if you read closely, you'll see nothing to suggest that Harrison has even ever logged into Second Life and experienced any of the things he is talking about. There's enough misconception in his opening paragraphs to suggest that he hasn't done so and that he hasn't any hard data to back it all up. In fact judging by the evasiveness used when reference to exchanges, it's even possible that there isn't any.

    [...]

    Best of all, Harrison claims to have done this study six months ago prompted by "given the fact SL was supposedly producing virtual millionaires." -- Of course there were no virtual millionaires in Second Life then -- Anshe [Chung]'s so very recently made the grade (Harrison takes the time to call Anshe a whore before he's done). Harrison's piece looks like just a manufactured controversy piece (or, perhaps, he is just very easily confused by numbers and simple economic matters).

    Given their track record, Valleywag appears to have a very strong anti-SL bias, and that may have caused them to overreach here. Not that I'm claiming it's that easy to make money in SL--heaven knows I haven't figured out the trick yet--but the picture's not nearly as bleak as the ValleyWag people make out.

    (The way to go to make money, as in RL, seems to be real estate. With the increasing population of SL, demand is high; one land management company I deal with is planning to bring 4 whole "sims," or a bit over 250,000 square meters, of new land online per month to try and meet the demand--and, when they preannounce a new sim, it's almost always sold out before it even comes online.)

    --
    Be who you are...and be it in style!
  65. Re:Should have kept reading those wikipedia articl by gd23ka · · Score: 1

    Giving a private corporation special powers by the way of law is nothing new under the
    sun and a continuing trend as privatized law enforcement and private prison corporations
    etc. come to mind. I see nothing unique about that kind of entity.

    Looking at the WP-article and what you cited from it you most have overlooked this interesting
    paragraph, right after you stop citing it says:

    "Federal Reserve Banks are nominally "owned" by private "member banks" (in that each member bank owns n
    nonnegotiable shares of stock in its regional Federal Reserve Bank; see below). In Lewis v. United States,
    [2], the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit stated that "the Reserve Banks are not federal
    instrumentalities for purposes of the FTCA [the Federal Tort Claims Act], but are independent, privately owned
    and locally controlled corporations." The opinion also stated that "the Reserve Banks have properly been held
    to be federal instrumentalities for some purposes." [1]

    I would contest the quotation marks around the "owned" even just because those shares can not be sold.

    And coming to a close and speaking of thugs, the original stockholders in the Federal Reserve Banks were the
    Rockefellers, JP Morgan, Rothschilds, the Lazard Freres, Schoellkopf, Kuhn-Loeb, the Warburgs, the Lehman Brothers
    and Goldman Sachs, in other words the same people who financed all major wars since the French Revolution.

    Without question, people to be trusted to do whatever in their power towards your best interests.

    "I think the more interesting question is what if there was a classic "bank run" in Second Life? Could Linden pay up? The US banks are FDIC insured."

    They'll reimburse you with virtual land or other virtual goods. Buzzing clouds of electron charge is what they have a
    virtually unlimited supply of.

  66. Permissions can be locked down in SL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    As far as I can tell, permissions can be locked down in SL. You can set objects so you are not allowed to copy them - pick them up and move them, modify them. You could make a cool tree/ motorbike / house but you can set permissions so I can't copy the tree and put it in my area, can't sit on your motorbike, can't copy and paste your house.

    Objects with functionality - say a noticeboard that allows me to type notices into it - can be given permissions and opened to a limited degree that you the constructor decide. You can sell me a noticeboard that allows me to type my own messages in it, i.e. a noticeboard that I can use in my space, but you can set the object and its associated scripts so I can't make further copies, modify the item, or look at the scripts driving the object: I can't buy one noticeboard from you then improve upon the scripting, you can close this off from me.

    My choice is to learn to script and build my own objects using the inworld scripting language, or deciding whether it is better to pay you for object I desire.

  67. Not a closed system by mattr · · Score: 1

    I see claims in this thread that SL is a closed system depending on new members joining and therefore a pyramid scheme.

    Perhaps the company running SL needs new members to buy land but SL as an environment I think fits none of the above claims.

    The goods in SL can connect to the Internet outside of the game. For example you can stream music from your own web server to a radio in the game.

    I am currently designing a product to sell in-game that has real value to people not just entertainment and I know there are people who want it.

    I won't say anything else since I want to be first with this specific product but believe there will be more and more of this.. which should make SL superior to other communities despite what I hear about inferior clients for now.

    Funny though, when I signed up I was supposed to get free Lindens (money) but the signup broke (hit the back button doh) and lost the money. Haven't bought any land or anything else yet though have spent over $50 in paying Internet cafes to use their machines to access (which I want to break that habit, it's silly). I think it is more about my not liking credit cards, since if the cafe I am in right now said I could buy some nice land for $50 I would plop the money down.

    So I directly refute your FUD claim that goods sold in SL have no value, and that SL is a closed system. I also believe that it could be greatly improved. They are adding mono (open source .Net) to it now too, and you will begin to see I think more interesting connections to technologies not currently in-game.
    I just saw an alpha of something that uses Google sketchup. If it becomes easy to import 3D models then you will see a lot more advertising and links to the outside world. Not necessarily good but we'll see.

    I have no idea about how the company that runs SL makes money but it is naive to imagine that people are constantly quitting and that most users are newbies. I find that is not true either.

    As for pyramid scheme, let's not be dumb. The idea for something like SL goes back a long time (think snowcrash, etc.) and has little to do with a pyramid scheme. Also there are things that look like some kind of scheme but are not. Take OSS for example. Do you get more out of it than you put in?

    There is only one real problem with SL so far that I have seen. It is overwhelmingly full of nasty (okay let's say mature) content. I couldn't recommend a kid to use it because of that, though maybe the open source client will quickly be changed to allow a lock on that. If you search for places or events it is mostly casinos, sex this and that, make money quick, etc. I also see no policing, for example I experimented with one to see if I could make money on a questionnaire thing to buy some land and not actually use my own cash. After answering oodles and oodles of questions I discovered it requires you to actually buy things.

    Another problem perhaps is that I am a bit worried about privacy. On the other hand now that the client is open source, perhaps it will become possible to create encrypted channels.

    Anyway it will get better and some people will lose money. For example I saw a new mall and talked to the owner about getting space. I think $300/week for a small space is just crazy.

    But if it turns out to really become relevant to the world (and not just experimentally as it is now) you will have to eat your words. Incidentally I just saw two requests for commercial bids from NASA for programming simulations of current projects. I think you ought to study SL a bit before putting it down as a scam. It certainly is not a closed system, and while it has room for improvement, it has enough options now with open clients that it can grow. Big companies are interested in it so it has a certain critical mass. I have not spent a ton of time in SL and find its scripting documentation to suck, but I do not see a reason to call it a pyramid scheme.

    I think one other problem though is that land is too expensive,

    1. Re:Not a closed system by Petey_Alchemist · · Score: 1

      "it is naive to imagine that people are constantly quitting and that most users are newbies. I find that is not true either."

      Actually, Linden Lab has admitted that only one out of every six new users ever logs on again after the first time. And as for most users being newbies: the population, while inflated, has gone from about 500,000 to 2.5 million in four months. How is that not a newbie rush?

    2. Re:Not a closed system by mattr · · Score: 1

      I see, thanks for the data. To me this all means...
      1. 1/6 staying is bad. It indicates a big barrier to entry that needs to be lowered (say by providing a web client instead of requiring a big install, or by making it easier to get around and find people/interesting things which isn't easy yet). On the other hand, it also means there is a ton of room to grow.
      2. Many new entries is a positive sign, unless there is some sinister data I don't know about that would normally be called effective PR or a growth curve.
      3. You can say it's a newbie rush but the term "newbie" is slanted and you could just as well say they have made a breakthrough and now have to roll out more services quickly and help get people to add commercial content faster. Wasn't there a post about AOL joining?
      4. As for the overall context of this thread, this does not mean it is a pyramid scheme at all, simply that SL is enjoying lots of new entries at the moment, and has a lot of work to do.
      5. In addition I wouldn't say it depends on newbies but rather that the temporary statistic is that most people have joined in the past 4 months. And at what point do they stop being newbies? Isn't 4 months online not a newbie anymore for a community like this?
      6. I say temporary because obviously an exponential trend in new members is unsustainable. Either most people will no longer be newbies, and a stable membership will exist at some point due to improved content and services, or for some reason the current 2.9 million users will dry up and Linden won't be able to pay their bills. I'd need to see more info on what's happened to the 1 million people who logged in over the past 2 months. I see 20,000 people online now at about 9pm EST on Thursday which doesn't sound too great.. and I wonder where they all are. I think they need more transparency about that. Is that 20,000 developers building great stuff or 20,000 newbies bumbling around?

    3. Re:Not a closed system by Petey_Alchemist · · Score: 1

      1. 1/6 staying is bad. It indicates a big barrier to entry that needs to be lowered (say by providing a web client instead of requiring a big install, or by making it easier to get around and find people/interesting things which isn't easy yet). On the other hand, it also means there is a ton of room to grow.

      It also means that the current technology is terrible. Terrible. Forget web client. You need a mainframe. 2. Many new entries is a positive sign, unless there is some sinister data I don't know about that would normally be called effective PR or a growth curve.

      Yes, there is. Try this article.

      4. As for the overall context of this thread, this does not mean it is a pyramid scheme at all, simply that SL is enjoying lots of new entries at the moment, and has a lot of work to do.

      Wrong. Because as even the most diehard SL fans have pointed out, much of the attraction of Second Life is pure hyperbole.

      5. In addition I wouldn't say it depends on newbies but rather that the temporary statistic is that most people have joined in the past 4 months. And at what point do they stop being newbies? Isn't 4 months online not a newbie anymore for a community like this?

      See the shirkly link. Those numbers are incredibly inflated even BEFORE you consider the 1/6 return ratio. Plus they don't include alternate accounts. A better explanation for what happened is that the news media reported on Second Life, people decided to sign up in droves, hated it, and never came back. Look, if the New York Times featured www.randomtoysite.com on their front page it would have more than a few million visitors from that coverage that day. If the site sucked, and most never bought anything, it would drop off the page. With SL, the site sucked, and most never bought anything, but it CONTINUES to be news.

      6. I say temporary because obviously an exponential trend in new members is unsustainable. Either most people will no longer be newbies, and a stable membership will exist at some point due to improved content and services, or for some reason the current 2.9 million users will dry up and Linden won't be able to pay their bills. I'd need to see more info on what's happened to the 1 million people who logged in over the past 2 months. I see 20,000 people online now at about 9pm EST on Thursday which doesn't sound too great.. and I wonder where they all are. I think they need more transparency about that. Is that 20,000 developers building great stuff or 20,000 newbies bumbling around?

      FYI, 20000 concurrent users is the most they've ever had online, and it completely destroys the game in terms of lag. It's almost literally unplayable. It's a lot of newbies, and it's a lot of people playing a dark, seedy side of the game that no one ever reports on.

    4. Re:Not a closed system by mattr · · Score: 1

      Dear Chris,

      Thanks for your careful replies. I read the Clay Shirky article, the comments to it, and your own article Something Awful. From someone who has never been to one of those sex clubs in SL you mention I can say that Harry Potter video is pretty gross!

      Anyway, I understand a little better the accusations of collusion by the media, soft or outright bent figures from SL, and what Clay and you are saying.

      I would like to concede/reply to your comments from the thread.

      Tech is terrible - perhaps though if it started 3 years ago, lets you build/program your own world, and has a real ecommerce system I'd say you need to compare it to another system that has that. Graphically, sure it sucks compared to more advanced games (I don't have much experience on giant rpg sites lately though so will take your word for it). By web client I meant that it would be useful to have a way for people to see a facet of SL without a full client, i.e. sit in on an SL discussion or post messages/update objects easily. Actually I only really see SL in the long term as being an ecommerce and scripted objects platform that other worlds and the web can plug into. One problem is that Lindens are not IIRC tied to a real world currency, so I wouldn't necessarily want to get paid in Lindens instead of by PayPal right now. If they don't fix that I think they are in major trouble.

      As for sinister figures, I concede whatever you and Shirky are saying however personally I was only looking at 20,000 concurrent users, which seemed a lot to me, and not the quoted 1 million+ which seemed pretty iffy. I would really like to see what the figures are with gambling and explicit content filtered out.

      There are perhaps two things to consider, which is that this could conceivably be like the often quoted porn driving vhs sales thing, since it seems that industry has a lot of money and is always trying new technology. By this I mean that if SL has only 20,000 concurrent users and most are either customers or developers of "vice" content, SL has a very limited time to build on that and the press to get itself straightened out. If AOL people really are coming to SL that could save them, conceivably (though it is too hard I think to use right now). Personally I'm more interested in what some schools and manufacturers (IBM? Car manufacturers?) are thinking of doing in SL or elsewhere. I don't particularly care for SL over any other world, but think even 20,000 people, and the works that people have abandoned in SL, might be critical mass. Don't know. I often see small groups of people when I look at places, but it doesn't seem like a lot. I'm personally more interested in how big a market there might be for something I could build and sell in SL, and maybe there isn't one really. The statistics Linden Labs shows about ongoing transactions suggests that somebody is making money, I wonder what that is all about. Mainly SL seems really empty so maybe it is waiting for some other company to come along and do it better. There are some things I find interesting in it, like the way the surf relaxes me, but the difficulty of actually finding people or worthwhile content is so hard I think most people must quit. I found a couple of inscrutable games, and had a couple of nice conversations with people, but I expect most people like me don't want to spend money on SL and so are limited to wandering, wandering , wandering. Not much of a second life eh?

  68. OOPS! by UbuntuDupe · · Score: 1

    Sorry, I missed that you were talking about short-term investors. I should take my own sig's advice...

    Still, who distinguishes day-traders from short-term investors *who buy stocks*?

    1. Re:OOPS! by mstahl · · Score: 1

      See? It's hard to do.

      Even saying that a law followed your definition, the burden would still be on the plaintiff in a case to prove that a defendant was, in fact, "day trading" and not "investing in the short term". I don't think your definition is bad as a definition, but it could become very bad as a law. When codified by lawmakers, these things have a tendency to become more volatile than originally intended.

      While we're on the topic, who would bring day-trading charges on someone? Maybe that's what you just asked in your post....

  69. What is value? by doomy · · Score: 1
    I think old time economists do not understand what value means. A good definition for "value" of an item could be had from Heinlein's book, "For Us, The Living" (probably his first book written but last to be published":


    "Can you define value?"

    "Well, perhaps not. I seem to know what it means."

    "Marx defined it as a measure of the number of work-hours required to produce a given article. His definition was meaningless in the real world, and he ran into all sorts of difficulties, which he tried to avoid by patching the definition. But the definition was wrong and his beautiful, monumental, logical structure was invalid. He was important only as an agitator against social injustice and he contributed more error than truth to the art of economics. He made a similar mistake in assuming that a man lives in his belly rather than in his head. Animals do, but not men. They must serve their bellies, it is true, but aside from that, their motives may have nothing to do with economic considerations. Consequently Marx's Economic Determinism was not valid. But I've digressed again. Value in economics is a relationship between an individual and a thing or a service. It is a personal relationship which expresses how much a particular individual desires a thing or a service. Economic value of a thing or a service approximates the average of the summation of the personal values placed on the thing or service by the individuals who constitute the consuming public. Value plus purchasing power in the hands of the consuming public constitutes effective demand. Price is a function of supply and demand. Value may be expressed in dollars and cents through this complex functional relationship, but value is not price, and is not a measure of work-hours, it is a word used to express the desire of an individual to possess a thing or a service. I am not giving the word a new definition; I am simply stating explicitly the observed fact that such is what people mean when they speak of value. Sale takes place when the value to the prospective buyer is greater than the value to the owner. Note the difference between Marx's idea of value and that which I have expressed. Marx attempts to measure value by the amount of labor expended. Yet it is an obvious fact in the real world that an inefficient, careless, or unimaginative worker can slave for hours to produce an article practically worthless, that the public won't buy, valueless. An intelligent skillful inventive worker may turn out in a short time an article that the public will snap up at once at a high price. Which has the greater value?


    In this regard, the items in SecondLife, to me personally do have value, but I understand someone outside SL would not see the value in SL goods, as they would consider things to have value only when they can touch and see it.

    I attribute value in SL, to things that were created artistically, with a quality greater than than just a bunch of primites put together. You can see how much time and effort was put into such works and how they came from talented people.

    I've bought stuff in SL just based on how it would amuse me, how it would entertain me, how it would make my SL experience better. I think this is the reason why we buy things in our everyday life as well. SL is no different from that.

    For example, my girl friend spends more time and money on SL than me. The things she buys in SL has value to her cause it enriches her gaming experience and entertains her. It's no different than buying a dress or outfit real life, or buying a pair of designer shoes, or cds.

    Having said that, I do feel there are pyramid schemes within SL. For example there are banks in SL with investment returns of 180%. These are mostly Ponzi schemes much like what existed in Eve Online. And only someone really desperate would invest in them.
    --
    ...free your source and the rest would follow...
    1. Re:What is value? by Jesrad · · Score: 1

      Thank you for injecting some intelligence in here. Sound economics are as rare in Slashdot as sensible IT decisions are in accounting.

      --
      Maybe we deserve this world ?
  70. Did this guy even look at the website? by MattGWU · · Score: 1

    The average player, by default, can't push too much money around. For businesses and currency traders, you can request tiered levels of increased limits. How, otherwise, would these 'top of the pyramid' land barons pay for a couple dozen islands a month tier, if they couldn't reasonably get a dozen or two K a month out?

    Looking at the withdrawl/outgoing maximums for each class:
    Resident class: $5,000/month
    Business class (Level 4 of 4): $30,000/day or $320,000/month
    Enterprise class (Level 4): $60,000/day or $1,280,000/month
    Currency Trader (Level 4): $40,000/day or $1,280,000/month

    These arrangements aren't automatic, so take a request to The Lindens to get cleared for. Obviously too much work for our author, for whom *looking at the webpage* was either too much effort, or too damaging to his case.

    --
    "These people look deep within my soul and assign me a number based on the order in which I joined" --Homer re:
  71. This just in: Shopping Malls are Pyramid Schemes! by osu-neko · · Score: 1

    I went to the mall with $100. By the end of the day, all I had were some clothes and pretty trinkets. I was completely unable to cash out more money than I put it. Therefore, the mall must be a pyramid scheme!

    --
    "Convictions are more dangerous enemies of truth than lies."
  72. Re:Should have kept reading those wikipedia articl by A+Name+Similar+to+Di · · Score: 1

    Giving a private corporation special powers by the way of law is nothing new under the sun and a continuing trend as privatized law enforcement and private prison corporations etc. come to mind. I see nothing unique about that kind of entity.

    And how many of those private corporations were a part of the government for decades beforehand? Look, I'm not quite sure if you're willfully turning a blind eye to the obvious differences between the fed and other private corporations or what, but I'd challenge you to name me one of those private corporations, I'll quickly point out just how greatly it differs from the fed for you.

    But how about we cut away from the wiki article, let's go check the Fed:

    Who owns the Federal Reserve?

    The Federal Reserve System is not "owned" by anyone and is not a private, profit-making institution. Instead, it is an independent entity within the government, having both public purposes and private aspects.
    (Emphasis mine)

    and again in the same FAQ

    The twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks, which were established by Congress as the operating arms of the nation's central banking system, are organized much like private corporations--possibly leading to some confusion about "ownership." For example, the Reserve Banks issue shares of stock to member banks. However, owning Reserve Bank stock is quite different from owning stock in a private company. The Reserve Banks are not operated for profit, and ownership of a certain amount of stock is, by law, a condition of membership in the System. The stock may not be sold, traded, or pledged as security for a loan; dividends are, by law, 6 percent per year.

    Back to you...
    Without question, people to be trusted to do whatever in their power towards your best interests.

    Just to fill you in a little more, the board acts based on the members. Most of the voting federal reserve banks actually support a team of research economists. For example the Chicago Fed hires a number of economists who regularly turn out publications. These economists make an informed decision based on their opinion of what is best for the long term economic growth of the country. These interests do /NOT/ necessarily fall in line with what the stockholders would like to see happen.

    Believe it or not, this is a well documented system that is frequently audited and questioned by congress. This system is /not/ out to further the interests of the stock holders, member banks, or the US politicians.

    This really isn't tin-foil hat time, you can read the minutes of the meeting. Part of the power of the USD is the ability to attract foreign investment. So really, you don't even have to trust me or trust the Fed, but if you trust greedy corporations to be greedy, then consider how they are reluctant to invest in countries which have poor monetary policy compared to the willingness to invest in the US. The stark contrast will illustrate that this system isn't just a "have faith in it" scheme, it's a system that greedy corporations have enough belief in to dump billions of dollars.

  73. What is FICO? by Michael+Woodhams · · Score: 1

    Nothing suitable comes up from acronymfinder.

    --
    Quattuor res in hoc mundo sanctae sunt: libri, liberi, libertas et liberalitas.
    1. Re:What is FICO? by danzona · · Score: 1

      A very popular credit ranking in the US was developed by Fair Isaac & Co (FICO) and is generally used when applying for a home mortgage.

  74. Stock markets finance companies that have the potential of providing goods and services that were not available before; in a growing economy, the stock market produces long-term gains in the aggregate, because the companies that it finances create wealth.

    Pyramid schemes, on the other hand, don't create any wealth; they just redistribute existing wealth.

  75. No more a house of cards than society itself. by Estanislao+Mart�nez · · Score: 1

    You are correct in at least one respect: if you ask anyone why they accept dollars as payment, they answer is always: "because other people will take it as payment". But isn't this fundamentally a house of cards?

    No more so than the expectation that all English speakers around you will continue to take the word "dog" to mean canis familiaris. In other words: what you're dealing with here is a complex social situation, and a breakdown is well within the realm of possibility. Ultimately, value is not a property of an object, but rather, a relation between people and objects; and people are social beings.

    1. Re:No more a house of cards than society itself. by UbuntuDupe · · Score: 1

      The social situation regarding English is different from money. The problem I cited with money was that its value depends (almost) entirely on others still being willing to accept it. The only other value is as paper.

      Is English like this? No. Even if everyone else in the entire world quit speaking English tomorrow, knowing English would still retain significant value for me:

      -I can still read all the notes I have written for myself, and all previously written English records in existence.
      -I can still write new notes to myself and read them.
      -I can still teach English to others (perhaps those who don't yet know a language).
      -I can still teach the underlying concepts in English to those using languages that don't have them. Ex: encoding verbal sounds from a 26-character set and their meanings from a vocabulary.

      My point was that US dollars don't have this separate value. Gold, on the other hand, has significant uses even when not money. If I'm stuck holding gold when it stops being used as currency, I can salvage most of its value by selling it to e.g. a research university in exchange for whatever the new currency is.

  76. Nope. by Estanislao+Mart�nez · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The 'goods' that are sold within SL have no value in real life, which makes the SL a closed system, which sustains itself only due to the new users who are constantly joining as you yourself stated. It is a pyramid scheme.

    You're assuming an untenable boundary between the "real" and the "virtual" here. If people are paying real money to obtain those goods, they certainly have a real value.

    There are plenty of business models that rely on more money coming in constantly for an indefinite amount of time. For example, the food industry. What's missing from this argument is a condition that's critical for something to be a pyramid: it must rely on an unsustainable continuous inflow of new money. There is no reason in principle that forbids that from happening in the Second Life case; if the demand for Second Life goods can be sustained indefinitely, then it's no different than any other commodity.

    If you read TFA and think about it, you'll notice that the "pyramid" claim is the least precise and careful claim made in it. The real smoking gun, to my mind, is the claim that Second Life currency is controlled by a cartel that accepts real money in exchange for virtual money, and then puts in a price structure designed to do two things: (a) keep the said virtual money from being converted back to real money, and (b) prevent other people with big pockets to come in and compete with them. They certainly earn short-term interest on the real money that people trade into their pockets; TFA notes that the penalties they were looking at for big trades closely matched short-term interest rates, which supports the hypothesis that these penalties are, essentially, the cartel's way of charging you for the interest they projected to earn on the real money they're trade you back.

  77. Re:Problems--you think YOU have problems? by DrVomact · · Score: 1

    You're lucky! I got stuck with the Beta version, and the pre-natal EULA ("Do you want to be born? Please click 'Yes' or 'No') obligates me to play until my avatar dies. Due to one of the many bugs in this crappy game, I just take lots of damage, but never quite die. I have to grind experience at this thing called a "job" to make enough in-game money to feed my avatar and its "dependents". (Don't get me started on in-game "marriage".) The only things I can kill are rodents or the occasional deer, and all they ever drop are turds. I still haven't figured out for sure how to tell the NPCs from the PCs, and if you make a mistake you get put in prison and maybe killed! No joke! (Actually, this would be an option...except for the non-death bug.) They've got a pretty good raid going in the "Iraq" zone, where you get to kill anything you want--but the uber players get all the good loot. I'm sure glad they have these in-game forums to whine on.

    --
    Great men are almost always bad men--Lord Acton's Corollary
  78. People are the values by hackingbear · · Score: 1
    Not matter what it is, stocks, lands, houses, gold, slahdot.org website, google.com or Second Life virtual lands. If it attracts large number of people around it and then it has values. Before that, it is pretty much a pyramid scheme when you are asked to put money in it.

    The exchange of the stuff is gambling, regardless its underlying value.

  79. SL not Pyramid by Gilzors · · Score: 2, Funny

    Of course it's not a pyramid. I've noticed a distinct lack of mummies!

  80. People who are dumb DESERVE! by stupidpuppy · · Score: 1

    I love, love, LOVE this slashdot meme.

    People who leave their computers unsecured deserve to get hacked.

    People who get taken in by con men deserve to get scammed.

    I have a question : do girls who wear skimpy clothes deserve to be raped? Does a black guy who whistles at a white woman deserve to get killed?

    Here's one for you : you're an idiot, and for that travesty, you deserve nothing bad to happen to you! You deserve the same love and respect as any other human being!

    Although the forum abuse -- you definitely had coming.

    1. Re:People who are dumb DESERVE! by BVis · · Score: 1
      People who leave their computers unsecured deserve to get hacked.
      No, nobody deserves to get hacked. But that doesn't mean people don't have a responsibility to secure their systems.

      People who get taken in by con men deserve to get scammed.
      See above. Last I had heard, common sense hadn't been abolished yet.

      I have a question : do girls who wear skimpy clothes deserve to be raped? Does a black guy who whistles at a white woman deserve to get killed?
      No, and no.

      Here's one for you : you're an idiot, and for that travesty, you deserve nothing bad to happen to you! You deserve the same love and respect as any other human being!
      Well, one of us is an idiot, anyway.

      --
      Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.
  81. In other words... by maillemaker · · Score: 1

    DRM works.

    By hiding the "code" that drives the objects, making them, in essence, uncopyable, there is scarcity that can be capitlized upon.

    As soon as duplication becomes effortless, the motivation to spend $10 for the item goes away.

    --
    A work that expires before its copyright never enters the public domain and thus enjoys eternal copyright protection.
  82. Another classic example by maillemaker · · Score: 1

    This is yet another classic example of why content creators want DRM so badly. No one wants to go to the effort to create the content for free.

    --
    A work that expires before its copyright never enters the public domain and thus enjoys eternal copyright protection.
  83. Experiences Re:SL economy by Randym · · Score: 1
    If I want something (anything!), I can make it myself.

    The trick to making money in SL is sell *experiences*, not objects. Experiences are unique to the avatar experiencing them, and can be re-experienced.

    How many clothes have you bought in SL? vs. How many times have you played Tringo? I rest my case.

    --
    DNA is a Turing machine. You, however, being dynamic and emergent, are not.
  84. Banks are bogus but not the in-game economy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The in-game banks that arose and pretty much fell in Second Life flat out were pyramid schemes. The "interest" was based on money from all those other people putting money in the bank, not loans or anything. Oh, and one of the Second Life banks, the dude running the bank cashed out like $150,000 (or a more impressive L$35,000,000) and skipped out of SL 8-).

              On the other hand, the base economy for SL is based on reality.. someone with a free account isn't paying LL anything.. there's some "money trees" in SL to get a bit of cash for the first week or two depending on the tree, so if you want to "make free money" or whatever you might get L$100-200 which is like US $0.50-0.75. After that (unless you're already making in game currency...) to have any in-game cash, people pay $9.95/month.. the L$300/week you get in game amounts to about US $4.51 a month at current exchange rate. The other $5.44 goes to Linden. I doubt this alone would pay for a grid as big as they probably have. But, there's fees for new islands (since creating new land directly invovles Linden pluging extra machines into their cluster..), some kind of monthly island fee for islands and land tax on the mainland. For smaller parcles, you usually pay rent, to someone who owns a larger block of land. Those fees pay for maintenance and power. Oh, and of course if you want extra L$ for something you directly pay Linden some dollars. If Linden has the L$ completely US $ backed (which I think is likely..) they would have it in an actual bank, and can get interest back without any pyramid schemes 8-).