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Will China Beat the United States Back to the Moon?
MarkWhittington writes "During an address on the space economy to coincide with the fiftieth anniversary of the start of the space age, NASA Administrator Michael Griffin made the assertion that China would beat the United States back to the Moon. 'Americans will not like it, but they will just have to not like it. I think we will see, as we have seen with China's introductory manned space flights so far, we will see again that nations look up to other nations that appear to be at the top of the technical pyramid, and they want to do deals with those nations. It's one of the things that made us the world's greatest economic power. So I think we'll be reinstructed in that lesson in the coming years and I hope that Americans will take that instruction positively and react to it by investing in those things that are the leading edge of what's possible."'"
Get to the moon? They can't even make toys!
But I thought we just shot that first landing in a studio!
Damn conspiracy theorists.
...they've got all our money.
-- http://frobnosticate.com
Cold War ended twenty years ago did it not?
You have to admit, red spaceships are going to be pretty cool.
The thing I'm more interested in is the chance of a private company putting the next person on the Moon. At this point, the only feasible industry is space tourism - there are no fusion reactors for the He-3, after all - but that might be enough. Virgin Galactic are expecting to be doing regular sub-orbital flights within a year or two, soon after that, they or someone else will start of orbital flights. That could be done in 5-10 years, quite easily. Getting from LEO to the Moon is easy compared to getting from the ground to LEO, so I would expect more than a few years for that.
If a private company tries, they could get to the Moon in 10-15 years, by my estimate, which could easily beat the various government projects (even assuming they stay on schedule, which we all know won't happen). The big question is whether or not any company will see the point in trying. I hope they do...
We can still claim a victory, even if our government gets beaten getting back to the moon. All we have to do is be the first nation with a private space industry to land on the moon, that's way cooler than having a government land there. We may need a 'permit to land on the moon,' but can you imagine what sort of permits a private company in China would need to land on the moon?
Demented But Determined.
I don't know if China would really beat us in the back to the moon race, but if it does, it would have a very positive impact on America. After the end of cold war, America has become somewhat lethargic. If this serves to unify behind some kind of scientific goal, it would really be great.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
Mostly only innovating when they're threatened... (see: US manned space program after the Soviets sent someone into Earth orbit)
...and bullying everyone else in the meantime.
US businesses that currently accept chip and PIN/signature
We got first post! I mean on the moon, not Slashdot.
We went there and there was nothing there. Just pride and Cold War points. Me? Loved it. Still recall watching the launches and Apollo 13 as a youngster. I was so into it as a 6-10 year-old. Definitely made a huge impact on the direction of my life.
While we Slashdotters often mock "If they can put a man on the moon...", there really is something to that. Look at the technology at that time. Look at the mission and the time frame. Amazing stuff. The politicians (mostly) kept their noses out. Even more amazing...
I don't want us to go back on tax bucks. I don't want another stupid political race, this time with China. I want the private sector to make money in space. We went there for the glory, let's go back for cash. I honestly mean it. If there is a return to be made, let's have the private sector do it, and let's give incentives for that.
"If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid." - Epictetus
"In a carefully stage-managed meeting in Beijing with a senior Chinese official, which, unusually, was open to the media, Thomas Debrowski, Mattel's executive vice-president for worldwide operations, read out a prepared text that played down the role of Chinese factories in the recalls."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/99b42156-683a-11dc-b475-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=9c33700c-4c86-11da-89df-0000779e2340,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F99b42156-683a-11dc-b475-0000779fd2ac%2Cdwp_uuid%3D9c33700c-4c86-11da-89df-0000779e2340.html
So... Who needs who more?
Yeah, China will be on the moon before the USA.
Deleted
In space, lead PROTECTS you!
"Knowledge is the only instrument of production that is not subject to diminishing returns" -Journal of Political Econom
What, is the moon race a "do over"?
We go there in 1969, period, dot.
China beating us back is a false challenge. It would be like if the Soviet Union had landed a man on the moon in September of 1969 and claimed it "beat us back" to the moon because they got there before Apollo 12.
By my calculation, by the time the Chinese make it to the moon for the first time, we'll have already been back to the moon five times. Been there, done that, brought back rocks.
Of course, it's a question who will be the first to get back the sixth time.
Am I part of the core demographic for Swedish Fish?
NASA's budget for 2007 was $16.8 billion. The Google Lunar X-Prize is $0.030 billion with a duration of 5 years. Assuming NASA budget remains approximately the same that means NASA's budget could renewably fund the equivalent of 2800 Google Lunar X-Prizes.
Seastead this.
The question we all need to ask is why do we even need to go back? We're not building moon bases anytime in the near future and extracting resources is way to expensive for the foreseeable future.
Some one please tell me what possible reason we would have for even wanting to waste billions of dollars on another trip to the moon for. It's a big floating rock.
I ignore Anonymous Coward posts. If you want to discuss something, that's awesome. Log in.
I think the USA needs to invest big time in nuclear rockets, and at the same time, wrap up its Constellation program.
This is my sig.
They don't have to calculate everything in metric AND our system.
Hope is the currency of fools
All they have to do is go up to the moon and remove the original Apollo lander, the flag, etc., then claim they found nothing there.
Then if they tell their own people they were the first ones on the moon, who could prove otherwise?
You can't send a takedown notice to an already printed newspaper.
Doesn't China have to get to the moon on seven different occasions if they want to beat the US back?
IOU one (1) signature
But the West will be on the moon by 2015 with private enterprise. The only way that china will be there sooner than that is to team up with Russia, which is a remote possibility (though it is a possibility). I agree with his comments about America and our technical proweness. Our leaders (both gov and business) have been shipping it foolishly overseas, in particular to china. That is going to come at a VERY high price. The sad thing is that by the time that American fully realize that our feds have cut far too much into research (during reagan's time it was cut in half; in W's time, it was cut again), we will also be in extreme debt (we all ready are) AND have lost the very business that made it possible in the first place.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
Who is going to be better at risk management inherent in technology development: Someone who is spending their own money or someone who is spending other people's money?
Seastead this.
Apart from Yasuko Nagazumi you mean..
It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.
Great point and great post.
We've been there, done that.
It's time for some other country to take their turn at coughing up the money and effort to do some outer space exploration and research for the "benefit of all".
Let's set the location of the 2050 Olympics to Tranquility Base. Any nations who want to participate had better start working out their transportation now. Also, kiss goodbye any existing records in high-jump, long jump, javelin, etc.
Great. Now we have to worry about deadly moon microbes in the pet food and toys.
Leave the gun, take the cannolis.
Just one? Pick your favorite:
* astronomy unfettered by an atmosphere and complexities of zero-G environment
* unlimited vacuum and little concern for pollution for industrial processes
* lots of sunshine for power generation
* tourism
There's longer term, and more altruistic goals as well, like getting our eggs out of one basket.
I'm imagining you looking out at the ocean from the beach, and saying "why go sailing? There's water in my bathtub."
NASA, and the United States in general, can see no benefit in a manned mission to the moon without a specific purpose. Seriously, what would be the point? To show that the U.S. can do it? Well, the U.S. already has, wayback in 1969.
What NASA is more interested in at the moment is the possibility of using the moon as a launching point for missions to Mars; perhaps building a lunar base of some kind and also to explore the moon and Mars using automated methods. Just look at the NASA SBIR (Small Business Innovation Research) requirements http://sbir.gsfc.nasa.gov/SBIR/sbirsttr2007/solicitation/Chapter_912.html and look at the topics. Exploration systems and space operations are a huge topic of interest, far surpassing any need for a current manned mission.
(Disclosure: The author worked recently on a NASA SBIR Grant under the Exploration Systems category.)
Except you need to think about the military situation. However controls the moon will control the space around Earth. Without control of space, and near-Earth-orbit, much of the US's military might just vanishes.
Goodbye GPS. Goodbye launch-detection-systems. Goodbye spy satellites.
There's also a lot you can do with rocks. For starters you can throw them. Go read some Heinlein.
"Software is too expensive to build cheaply"
...All together now! SING! http://www.rathergood.com/moon_song/
...pulled out of you know where. The Chinese have easy, no hassle access to 99% of our best R and D and tech already. They have hard but doable access to 1/2 of the remainder 1%, and are working on the last half via espionage. Between student access and corporate give away access, they have two nations combined expertise to pull from, and that leaves out all the other sources they have, europe in general is giving away the store as well.
This competitive edge, designed and implemented to make western millionaires into billionaires in a very short time frame, and sold/shilled to the middle class west under the illusion that cheap goods for a few years is worth destroying manufacturing for, will result in their becoming the dominant player in the 21st century, space and every place else. It is inevitable now. Nothing will stop it short of global war, and even there they are rapidly catching up in force projection, leapfrogging decades in years, something the DOD and CIA finally admitted to last year in some redacted but accessible studies. By around 2015 or so, they will have the largest economy on the planet, based on actual produced wealth. and rough parity in military force with any western military, and superiority if you count asymmetrical warfare capability.
These studies were presented to congress in the last few years and have been updated, one might have to google a bit, but you can find them. Even if exaggerated somewhat to help insure military budgets, other studies have come up with similar findings.
A hundred years from now, historians will wonder why the western economies allowed such traitorous business leaders and politicians to gut their own nations for personal profit. Or maybe not, given the rate of success and sophistication of mass brainwashing, starting in the corporate government run schools, there might not be much mention of it along with heavy revisionism of events that lead to the "second worlding" of the west.
If you are middle class now and enjoying it, get out of debt as soon as possible and be prepared to live a much more modest and frugal lifestyle soon, so you can enjoy being just "normal" poor and not OMG poverty poor. The big bank/wall street credit boom and sell-off of generations of hard work by the previous generations that fueled cheap goods for a few years is just about over. The only stuff left the business traitors have to sell off is national infrastructure, roads, waterworks, ports, etc, and they are fast tracking that right this second. Again, google is your friend there.
This Griffin surely and funding ploy for NASA. The facts suggest China's program is grossly overrated.
Based on the facts how can you conclude that China will get there first? Indeed, it is not clear that they will beat Japan as the leader in Asian spaceflight.
an ill wind that blows no good
Being first and being beaten out for second?
Griffin is just trolling for a patriotic boost.
"Win treats sysadmins better than users. Mac treats users better than sysadmins. Linux treats everyone like sysadmins."
The 21st century will be China's turn to be the world leader. All the talk and excuses we see here from Americans about how they don't care if China does beat us back to the moon is very much like what other countries said as they changed from being 1st rate to 2nd rate. Spain has had its turn, England, and now the U.S. is moving into China's eclipse. And of course we Americans will be able to lie to ourselves for quite a while that we're still the best "where it counts", just like the English and French and Spanish and all the others that were once great.
- In 1959, we had no real knowledge of rocketry. The billions that were spent was about learning what worked and more importantly, what did not work.
- In 1959, and in fact, in 1969, there was no market for commercial rocketry. All the sats that we had put up in the sky by 1970, is less than how may go up every year, currently. Now, there are not enough rockets to take on the load.
- Spacex has done 2 shots; the first was a major failure (it went boom). The second was a lot more interesting. The first stage registered an issue prior to launch, so the team drained and refuelded with warmer fuel (and in 20 minutes). They launched. The first stage was a total success. The second stage lost is fuel just at the end due to lack of baffles in the tank. All in all, they are fixing it and expect (hope?) the next flight to have no more issues.
- Spacex will be profitable by 2010 if the next flight works as well as falcon 9. They will have paid off ALL of their development cost by then.
- Bigelow has already launched 2 space stations. Yes, nobody is on them (nor will ever be). By 2009 or 2010, they will launch a 3 man space station. By 2011, they will launch a 6 person space station. By 2013, they will have multiple space stations in orbit. There goal is not to provide for hotels (but they will), but to provide space stations to nations. I expect that they probably extend the ISS with their 3 person unit and then later with the 6 person unit. Why? Because nations will want to take advantage of a an orbiting station. That means that EU, Japan, Brazil, India, Russia, USA, and private enterprise will be able to test equipment and get their launch system perfected.
- Spacex is looking at building a BFR by 2014. If they do, they will have re-invented roughly the same capability that USA had in the 1970 time frame, though this time it should be quite a bit cheaper.
No, this will be easy for companies to be profitable from the git-go.I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
The budget request for FY 2008 (which starts in two weeks) was for a little over $M703 - about 23.5 times the Google prize.
We're all born with nothing.
If you die in debt, you're ahead.
As Chinese, I'm happy because of those replies! Not because of China going to the Moon. You know what? After reading some replies, I realize that you guys are so arrogant and blinded. That is exactly the dawn of every empire collase. Chinese had that. But now we learn. British had that. It's too soon that they haven't learnt. Who will be the next? I can smell that. Lol.