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Will China Beat the United States Back to the Moon?
MarkWhittington writes "During an address on the space economy to coincide with the fiftieth anniversary of the start of the space age, NASA Administrator Michael Griffin made the assertion that China would beat the United States back to the Moon. 'Americans will not like it, but they will just have to not like it. I think we will see, as we have seen with China's introductory manned space flights so far, we will see again that nations look up to other nations that appear to be at the top of the technical pyramid, and they want to do deals with those nations. It's one of the things that made us the world's greatest economic power. So I think we'll be reinstructed in that lesson in the coming years and I hope that Americans will take that instruction positively and react to it by investing in those things that are the leading edge of what's possible."'"
Get to the moon? They can't even make toys!
But I thought we just shot that first landing in a studio!
Damn conspiracy theorists.
...they've got all our money.
-- http://frobnosticate.com
Cold War ended twenty years ago did it not?
You have to admit, red spaceships are going to be pretty cool.
The thing I'm more interested in is the chance of a private company putting the next person on the Moon. At this point, the only feasible industry is space tourism - there are no fusion reactors for the He-3, after all - but that might be enough. Virgin Galactic are expecting to be doing regular sub-orbital flights within a year or two, soon after that, they or someone else will start of orbital flights. That could be done in 5-10 years, quite easily. Getting from LEO to the Moon is easy compared to getting from the ground to LEO, so I would expect more than a few years for that.
If a private company tries, they could get to the Moon in 10-15 years, by my estimate, which could easily beat the various government projects (even assuming they stay on schedule, which we all know won't happen). The big question is whether or not any company will see the point in trying. I hope they do...
We can still claim a victory, even if our government gets beaten getting back to the moon. All we have to do is be the first nation with a private space industry to land on the moon, that's way cooler than having a government land there. We may need a 'permit to land on the moon,' but can you imagine what sort of permits a private company in China would need to land on the moon?
Demented But Determined.
I don't know if China would really beat us in the back to the moon race, but if it does, it would have a very positive impact on America. After the end of cold war, America has become somewhat lethargic. If this serves to unify behind some kind of scientific goal, it would really be great.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
Mostly only innovating when they're threatened... (see: US manned space program after the Soviets sent someone into Earth orbit)
...and bullying everyone else in the meantime.
US businesses that currently accept chip and PIN/signature
I'd rather see inexpensive skateboard trucks with decent axles than another U.S. moon mission.
Isn't specifying a political party at all redundant?
We got first post! I mean on the moon, not Slashdot.
We went there and there was nothing there. Just pride and Cold War points. Me? Loved it. Still recall watching the launches and Apollo 13 as a youngster. I was so into it as a 6-10 year-old. Definitely made a huge impact on the direction of my life.
While we Slashdotters often mock "If they can put a man on the moon...", there really is something to that. Look at the technology at that time. Look at the mission and the time frame. Amazing stuff. The politicians (mostly) kept their noses out. Even more amazing...
I don't want us to go back on tax bucks. I don't want another stupid political race, this time with China. I want the private sector to make money in space. We went there for the glory, let's go back for cash. I honestly mean it. If there is a return to be made, let's have the private sector do it, and let's give incentives for that.
"If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid." - Epictetus
...we beat China to Iraq. We have to stay focused on what's important, you know.
In general, it is safe and legal to kill your children. -- POSIX Programmer's Guide
"In a carefully stage-managed meeting in Beijing with a senior Chinese official, which, unusually, was open to the media, Thomas Debrowski, Mattel's executive vice-president for worldwide operations, read out a prepared text that played down the role of Chinese factories in the recalls."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/99b42156-683a-11dc-b475-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=9c33700c-4c86-11da-89df-0000779e2340,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F99b42156-683a-11dc-b475-0000779fd2ac%2Cdwp_uuid%3D9c33700c-4c86-11da-89df-0000779e2340.html
So... Who needs who more?
Yeah, China will be on the moon before the USA.
Deleted
In space, lead PROTECTS you!
"Knowledge is the only instrument of production that is not subject to diminishing returns" -Journal of Political Econom
There is always world race for food, resources, and wealth. There always will be. That type of life/death competition is a 'cold war', is it not?
What, is the moon race a "do over"?
We go there in 1969, period, dot.
China beating us back is a false challenge. It would be like if the Soviet Union had landed a man on the moon in September of 1969 and claimed it "beat us back" to the moon because they got there before Apollo 12.
By my calculation, by the time the Chinese make it to the moon for the first time, we'll have already been back to the moon five times. Been there, done that, brought back rocks.
Of course, it's a question who will be the first to get back the sixth time.
Am I part of the core demographic for Swedish Fish?
NASA's budget for 2007 was $16.8 billion. The Google Lunar X-Prize is $0.030 billion with a duration of 5 years. Assuming NASA budget remains approximately the same that means NASA's budget could renewably fund the equivalent of 2800 Google Lunar X-Prizes.
Seastead this.
The question we all need to ask is why do we even need to go back? We're not building moon bases anytime in the near future and extracting resources is way to expensive for the foreseeable future.
Some one please tell me what possible reason we would have for even wanting to waste billions of dollars on another trip to the moon for. It's a big floating rock.
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I think the USA needs to invest big time in nuclear rockets, and at the same time, wrap up its Constellation program.
This is my sig.
They don't have to calculate everything in metric AND our system.
Hope is the currency of fools
All they have to do is go up to the moon and remove the original Apollo lander, the flag, etc., then claim they found nothing there.
Then if they tell their own people they were the first ones on the moon, who could prove otherwise?
You can't send a takedown notice to an already printed newspaper.
Doesn't China have to get to the moon on seven different occasions if they want to beat the US back?
IOU one (1) signature
I do not believe the American public is responsible for the current state of the US space program.
Billion dollar Boondoggles, gross incompetence, mismanagement, lack of Gov't funding, and political posturing.
These are the things that have brought the US space program to ground. The public (I believe) has never lost faith, or given up the dream, however their Gov't did. NASA Administrator Michael Griffin shouldn't be saying that "China is going to beat the US, and the public is going to have to learn and invest better".
He should instead be saying: "I'm sorry that we failed you. I'm sorry that we haven't done a better job with the budgets and responsibilities that we were given." He should be praising companies like Google, or the X-Prize foundation for picking up the ball that the US gov't and NASA dropped.
The rock, the vulture, and the chain
But the West will be on the moon by 2015 with private enterprise. The only way that china will be there sooner than that is to team up with Russia, which is a remote possibility (though it is a possibility). I agree with his comments about America and our technical proweness. Our leaders (both gov and business) have been shipping it foolishly overseas, in particular to china. That is going to come at a VERY high price. The sad thing is that by the time that American fully realize that our feds have cut far too much into research (during reagan's time it was cut in half; in W's time, it was cut again), we will also be in extreme debt (we all ready are) AND have lost the very business that made it possible in the first place.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
Billy-bob sold the Chinese plenty of our hard won missile technology.
That's a lie! He didn't sell it to them, he gave it to them.
The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
Who is going to be better at risk management inherent in technology development: Someone who is spending their own money or someone who is spending other people's money?
Seastead this.
one giant leap for cheaply built products with the sticker saying "Made in Moon"
Apart from Yasuko Nagazumi you mean..
It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.
I assume the OP is talking about humans returning to the moon.
-b.
"... we will see again that nations look up to other nations that appear to be at the top of the technical pyramid..."
The U.S. avoided competing in the race to make a Supersonic Transport airliner. That was a very sensible decision.
There is no need to visit the moon because we already know what is there: Rocks.
Since we already have enough rocks on earth, another race to the moon would be merely a psychological equivalent of a test for penis length.
Hey, a new space race sounds like a great way to drive up the market price of engineers and industrial product, with both the US and Chinese space programs trying to outbid each other for the same Chinese technical staff and factories.
Lacking <sarcasm> tags,
Let's set the location of the 2050 Olympics to Tranquility Base. Any nations who want to participate had better start working out their transportation now. Also, kiss goodbye any existing records in high-jump, long jump, javelin, etc.
Great. Now we have to worry about deadly moon microbes in the pet food and toys.
Leave the gun, take the cannolis.
Just one? Pick your favorite:
* astronomy unfettered by an atmosphere and complexities of zero-G environment
* unlimited vacuum and little concern for pollution for industrial processes
* lots of sunshine for power generation
* tourism
There's longer term, and more altruistic goals as well, like getting our eggs out of one basket.
I'm imagining you looking out at the ocean from the beach, and saying "why go sailing? There's water in my bathtub."
NASA, and the United States in general, can see no benefit in a manned mission to the moon without a specific purpose. Seriously, what would be the point? To show that the U.S. can do it? Well, the U.S. already has, wayback in 1969.
What NASA is more interested in at the moment is the possibility of using the moon as a launching point for missions to Mars; perhaps building a lunar base of some kind and also to explore the moon and Mars using automated methods. Just look at the NASA SBIR (Small Business Innovation Research) requirements http://sbir.gsfc.nasa.gov/SBIR/sbirsttr2007/solicitation/Chapter_912.html and look at the topics. Exploration systems and space operations are a huge topic of interest, far surpassing any need for a current manned mission.
(Disclosure: The author worked recently on a NASA SBIR Grant under the Exploration Systems category.)
...All together now! SING! http://www.rathergood.com/moon_song/
Right now all a trip to the Moon will get us is a bunch of guys walking around looking at stuff that Americans saw over 50 years ago. None of the things you're talking about are going to happen on the moon for at least 20 years (and I think that's a very conservative estimate), especially anything like manufacturing, so why go back now?
There seems to be an awful lot of concern over pushing forward boldly into the future involved in this but the only relevant rationnels for going right now I'm seeing is to beat China at something we've already beaten them at handedly which is just to get some one up there walking around.
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Actually the world is teaming with the International Space station and are very dependant on the Russians. I would think the Russians would jealously guard their payload advantage against Chinese competition.
Strangely Japan seems to be going solo and not trusting the Russians, Chinese or the United States...
Because if we don't start going back now, and working out the kinks in travelling to the Moon, and figuring out the logistics of how to get a support base there, then it'll *always* be another 20 years away?
A moon base has been "20 years away" for as long as I've been alive. We have the technology to do it now, what we don't have is the impetus. And the main reason we don't have the impetus is because nobody's going there. All desire to build a moon base stopped in the 70's, when we stopped going there.
If you believe everything you read, you'd better not read. - Japanese proverb
That's elaborate...
I'd settle for them to send a man into space one - more - time.
It's been - what - 4 years since the last one? And he got back alive right? No accidents to prevent another launch right? Hell we lost 7 people in 2003 and got back in business in 2 years.
Might help if they had follow-up trips to practice basic lunar exploration requirements since (Gemini?), or even a rocket that's capable of lifting an lunar spacecraft, buuuut. Nope. Not a peep since.
Let me know when they have something to show they can do what they're talking about. Sounds like their chatter from back in 1978 or even 1968:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program#Manned_spaceflight_programs
It would be much more useful if we knew how many Library's of Congress that would fund!
If you have something that you dont want anyone to know, maybe you shouldnt be doing it in the first place -Eric Schmidt
I disagree. I think spending money on this right now is like spending money developing micro ships in the 30s when what we should be developing is vacuum tubes, which is to say we're getting ahead of ourselves. We already know we can get to the moon, we've done it plenty of times. When we are closer to being able to actually do something useful there is when we should go back again.
Also, in regards to the 20 years figure for the course of your entire lifetime, there are plenty of Sci-Fi concepts that are like that. Virtually every Sci-Fi movie and TV show out there calls the time line too short for the technology they depict and plenty of "experts" have made the exact same mistakes. Shoot, according to some scientist from decades ago we should have already long ago hit peak oil and should be running out by now.
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...pulled out of you know where. The Chinese have easy, no hassle access to 99% of our best R and D and tech already. They have hard but doable access to 1/2 of the remainder 1%, and are working on the last half via espionage. Between student access and corporate give away access, they have two nations combined expertise to pull from, and that leaves out all the other sources they have, europe in general is giving away the store as well.
This competitive edge, designed and implemented to make western millionaires into billionaires in a very short time frame, and sold/shilled to the middle class west under the illusion that cheap goods for a few years is worth destroying manufacturing for, will result in their becoming the dominant player in the 21st century, space and every place else. It is inevitable now. Nothing will stop it short of global war, and even there they are rapidly catching up in force projection, leapfrogging decades in years, something the DOD and CIA finally admitted to last year in some redacted but accessible studies. By around 2015 or so, they will have the largest economy on the planet, based on actual produced wealth. and rough parity in military force with any western military, and superiority if you count asymmetrical warfare capability.
These studies were presented to congress in the last few years and have been updated, one might have to google a bit, but you can find them. Even if exaggerated somewhat to help insure military budgets, other studies have come up with similar findings.
A hundred years from now, historians will wonder why the western economies allowed such traitorous business leaders and politicians to gut their own nations for personal profit. Or maybe not, given the rate of success and sophistication of mass brainwashing, starting in the corporate government run schools, there might not be much mention of it along with heavy revisionism of events that lead to the "second worlding" of the west.
If you are middle class now and enjoying it, get out of debt as soon as possible and be prepared to live a much more modest and frugal lifestyle soon, so you can enjoy being just "normal" poor and not OMG poverty poor. The big bank/wall street credit boom and sell-off of generations of hard work by the previous generations that fueled cheap goods for a few years is just about over. The only stuff left the business traitors have to sell off is national infrastructure, roads, waterworks, ports, etc, and they are fast tracking that right this second. Again, google is your friend there.
Of course they will. The moon is a military target just like it was in the '60's. Our military is busy spending it's money elseware. The moon and therefore mars are not a priorities in this country.
Cart
To put the $30m prize in perspective, launching the shuttle costs around $450m, and launching a Saturn V cost around $430m in 1967. The prize is likely to be less than 10% of the launch cost. Unlike the suborbital X-Prize, there is no real prospect of commercial exploitation either.
I bet Richard Branson and Virgin Galactic would love to be able to open Galactic Moon Hotel, and Spa. Mining companies would love to be able to mine the moon as well. Some manufacturers would love the low gravity. Inexpensive and routine travel is a holdup, as would be building facilities on the moon as they'd need to be built underground so cosmic rays could be blocked at least partially.
FalconShould there be a Law?
China probably will beat us to the moon and then some. The politicians wont care because it costs too much money. But let the Chinese find a way to start making money off of lunar trips, etc i bet you'll see a change in attitude though it may be too bad.
--- I was far from home, and the spell of the Eastern sea was upon me. -Lovecraft-
This Griffin surely and funding ploy for NASA. The facts suggest China's program is grossly overrated.
Based on the facts how can you conclude that China will get there first? Indeed, it is not clear that they will beat Japan as the leader in Asian spaceflight.
an ill wind that blows no good
Their moon venture will seem so much more inspired than ours when the spaceship comes back home, re-enters the atmosphere, and then transforms into its humanoid form for a graceful, skipping landing.
Considering China has never been to the moon I don't think they can go back.
Their economy is taking hard hits with inflation this month because of the rise of price in raw materials and this is pissing off the people in the countryside. Also their eco-system is so damaged their citizens are essentially dying from asphyxiation and industrial chemicals in the water and surroundings. If they even got astronauts to the moon before the US it still doesn't change the fact that the PRC is currently in dangerous territory concerning the health and well being of their citizens and that can invite disaster.
China surely can build a spaceship much cheaper than the US. With similar success rate, it is more viable, and economically efficient for China to occupy the moon first. Them the US can just take it over like 100 years ago in a land called "new world".
For the first time in decades China's Defense Posture report in (or about) 1992 openly listed the US as an "enemy nation"...
And why did that happen? Why, if that is true, is the U.S. building China by having almost everything made there?
Now is the time for careful thinking. People in the military in both countries, and the arms manufacturers want there to be another arms and violence race. The citizens of both countries will be poorer, and they will live in fear.
Also, although most people consider the moon as close, it is in fact a considerable distance in energy from the earth. The moon is not a good platform for doing things involving the earth, maybe surprisingly. Satellites are more efficient.
Chin's new Apallo missions are going to make history. Their new Satorn V Rocket system will be state of the art.
Two Towers-Two Worlds.One seeks triumphs and freedom for man.The other deems man unworthy and wrecks them.
So you think ever-increasing deficits and devalued currency are the answer?
OK, I know it would probably be some amount of Euros or Yen but that's just so much funnier...
With Chinese pilots like Wang Wei, I think the moon is safe... |-)
Being first and being beaten out for second?
Griffin is just trolling for a patriotic boost.
"Win treats sysadmins better than users. Mac treats users better than sysadmins. Linux treats everyone like sysadmins."
I am sure there are plans for rocket ships that can be found there.
Unless you live in a country that blocks certain web sites.
D'oh! (how do you say that in Chinese?)
This issue is a bit more complicated than you think.
If China makes it there first (or anyone else for that matter) I'm sure they're going to shoot for relatively close to the first moon landing site. It will finally put an end to the question "Did the USA really reach the moon?" If the US makes it first, and they never really did in the 60s, they're going to make it look like they really did and finally be able to say "well, we have proof now!"
If China makes it, you -know- they'll pride themselves in proving that the US didn't make it there after all.
as much as it is a race to see if someone else can become second to get there. Sorry, the gold medal's already claimed, and if the US makes it there again before anyone else, well that doesn't change the order now, does it?
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
I would expect on Slashdot....wait, I am on slashdot "The prospect of China, ruled by a totalitarian regime that asserts its power through force and terror, being the first, perhaps the only country to return to the Moon and access its resources, would be a tragedy of historic dimensions. It would signal the beginning of the end of the United States as a super power and the commencement of the Chinese Century."
So what happens when the Administration is wrong (again) and China loses to a bunch of no-on-has-ever-heard-ofs...?
....
"The Google Lunar X PRIZE calls on entrepreneurs, engineers and visionaries from around the world to return us to the lunar surface and explore this environment for the benefit of all humanity,"
The $30 million prize purse is segmented into a $20 million Grand Prize, a $5 million Second Prize and $5 million in bonus prizes. To win the Grand Prize, a team must successfully soft land a privately funded spacecraft on the Moon, rove on the lunar surface for a minimum of 500 meters, and transmit a specific set of video, images and data back to the Earth. The Grand Prize is $20 million until December 31st 2012;
reference:
http://www.googlelunarxprize.com/lunar/press-release/google-sponsors-lunar-x-prize-to-create-a-space-race-for-a-new-generation
The 21st century will be China's turn to be the world leader. All the talk and excuses we see here from Americans about how they don't care if China does beat us back to the moon is very much like what other countries said as they changed from being 1st rate to 2nd rate. Spain has had its turn, England, and now the U.S. is moving into China's eclipse. And of course we Americans will be able to lie to ourselves for quite a while that we're still the best "where it counts", just like the English and French and Spanish and all the others that were once great.
Seriously. Does it?
What do people expect the Chinese to do? Build a wall around it?
- In 1959, we had no real knowledge of rocketry. The billions that were spent was about learning what worked and more importantly, what did not work.
- In 1959, and in fact, in 1969, there was no market for commercial rocketry. All the sats that we had put up in the sky by 1970, is less than how may go up every year, currently. Now, there are not enough rockets to take on the load.
- Spacex has done 2 shots; the first was a major failure (it went boom). The second was a lot more interesting. The first stage registered an issue prior to launch, so the team drained and refuelded with warmer fuel (and in 20 minutes). They launched. The first stage was a total success. The second stage lost is fuel just at the end due to lack of baffles in the tank. All in all, they are fixing it and expect (hope?) the next flight to have no more issues.
- Spacex will be profitable by 2010 if the next flight works as well as falcon 9. They will have paid off ALL of their development cost by then.
- Bigelow has already launched 2 space stations. Yes, nobody is on them (nor will ever be). By 2009 or 2010, they will launch a 3 man space station. By 2011, they will launch a 6 person space station. By 2013, they will have multiple space stations in orbit. There goal is not to provide for hotels (but they will), but to provide space stations to nations. I expect that they probably extend the ISS with their 3 person unit and then later with the 6 person unit. Why? Because nations will want to take advantage of a an orbiting station. That means that EU, Japan, Brazil, India, Russia, USA, and private enterprise will be able to test equipment and get their launch system perfected.
- Spacex is looking at building a BFR by 2014. If they do, they will have re-invented roughly the same capability that USA had in the 1970 time frame, though this time it should be quite a bit cheaper.
No, this will be easy for companies to be profitable from the git-go.I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
China will get to the moon before we return, BFD ... done did ... so what.
... I hope it is humanity ... not just US, EU, Russia, China ... Corporatist/Militarist.
... time-lines) .... Anyway about 1998: A secret Pentagon report concludes that Hughes Space and Communications, without proper authorization, gave China vital technological assistance crucial to the successful launchings of Chinese ballistic missiles and satellites. The report concluded that Hughes provided a "defense service" to China that violated U.S. rules against helping Beijing make better rockets and missiles. http://www.wisconsinproject.org/
.... Oh, everyone is still looking for the lost Tybee Island nuke ... like it is really still missing in 20 foot deep water and river delta muck.
... the Brits helped some on the project.
The Q&A should be on who will be staying in space and on the moon
December 1998: This is one of many facts about US/EU corporatist/goverment selling/transfering nuclear, rocket, and other technologies to China, Israel (lost Tybee Island nuke
In the NY TIMES of April 4, 1998, Jeff Gerth with Raymond Bonner exposed a manipulation wherein the US government and 2 major American arms companies transferred Ballistic Missile technology to China. As a Grand Jury was investigating whether 2 American companies (Loral Space & Communications and Hughes Electronics) gave China space expertise that significantly advanced Beijing's ballistic missile program, President Clinton approved of this transfer 2 months ago. Clinton undercut a Grand Jury investigation in order to protect what? or whom? Gerth also exposed the huge $2.5 million contribution made by Loral and Hughes to the Democratic Party since 1991. http://www.jonathanpollard.org/1998/040798b.htm
Folks; the above is about the prior Whitehouse residents and USA Corporatist. What is going on these days and for the start of this new millennium is way beyond anything in the last
Anyway, I am damn happy Israel has nukes to protect US/EU
Unaccountable leaders are masters, and unrepresented people are slaves. How do US and EU fare?
I would rather see the money spent on unmanned projects and telescopes that can detect Earth-like planets, and possibly life, around other stars. The science return per money is much higher than manned missions. Until manned missions can support themselves (tourism, mining, etc), let the robots rule.
Table-ized A.I.
The question we all need to ask is why do we even need to go back?
It is far easier to launch craft from the moon than from the earth so if we want to go further afield a moon base would be useful. In addition it would be a great way to test a long term, enclosed ecosystem for support human life. Finally there is all the helium-3 which does not exist on Earth and, if we improve our fusion tech, will make an excellent power source and possibly a rocket fuel...and that is the stuff we know at the moment that we can do there. Who knows what else we might find useful once we set up shop permanently there.
...and all the other developing economies. Why race a country that's already gone to the US. This is mostly a battle to prove who is the best of the fastest growing economies.
As Chinese, I'm happy because of those replies! Not because of China going to the Moon. You know what? After reading some replies, I realize that you guys are so arrogant and blinded. That is exactly the dawn of every empire collase. Chinese had that. But now we learn. British had that. It's too soon that they haven't learnt. Who will be the next? I can smell that. Lol.
what difference does it make if it's chinese people? you'd think an event like this would remind everyone that we're all humans from planet earth..
So we're completely free in the states? Oh yeah, there's that patriot act. That's where all of my freedoms have been going. I guess that murdering 150,000 plus Iraqis and sending thousands of brave young men and women off to their deaths seemed like a good idea, especially with all of that petroleum for the taking. Maybe the genocide of 15 million Native American people wasn't enough. Then there's those rigged elections, spiraling crime rates and unemployment. I'll probably be blacklisted for even writing this. Maybe the U.S should work on fixing it's own problems before blindly criticizing others.
The actions of a nation of idiot managers who never could hack a Science or Engineering degree and have outsourced the jobs of people who did, and it is going to bite the US in the butt when they need so many more of these people to be Americans as competition begins in Space and industry. USA invested the last years and gave away her best technologies for the quick buck in Asia, now its are about to get paid back as Asia rises up and the sun sets on the good old USA. You think Toyota bitch slapping GM is bad? You have no idea what's coming you uneducated idiots! Want to suddenly a create a nation again interested in Science and Engineering , as it was in the late 50's/60's with the space race. Keep dreaming America!
China isn't exacly noted for playing nice with what the rest of the world might want, stet?
What if they do make it back to the moon before anyone else does, and declare that they're taking posession of it?
> You're right, Mattel does need China more than China needs Mattel. Excellent detective work.
China will land a man on the moon before Mattel does.
Yes, they are quite misguided. Face it, the economies are interlocked, and they will stay that way. Eventually capitalism in China will lead to the slow erosion of the Communist government over there, and then we'll really need to watch out because China will really be moving forward then. But they can't do it without the US just as much as the US can't move forward without China. Not if a China-hostile US Government gets its way. The societal mix shown on Firefly will turn out to be the correct interpretation of what will happen. Thankfully that will remain fiction and not prediction, thanks to the fine products of our nation's government contractors and the citizens that benefit from their use.
Twitter supports and protects racists - by smearing their critics with the "Hate Speech" label.
> we will see again that nations look up to other nations that appear to be at the top of the technical pyramid
I think they're 50 years too late. What's next? China inventing the lightbulb and showing it off in Menlo Park?
Sputnik was the first above. That is it. Since that race was lost, then the US kept redefining other race "first man up above" "first landing on the moon" etc... Never mind that in the end they "lost" also for the first habitable space station too if I recall correctly.
C. Sagan : A demon haunted world:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0345409469/
visit randi.org
Keep your yellow mits off of our lifeless orb!
I am very small, utmostly microscopic.
Gee... I wonder when AFRICA and its 'Just like us' niggers will ever get to the moon?
How about making a chip fab plant?
An aeroplane?
A car?
A bicycle?
Anything?
Oh, I forget... the only things blacks are good at is killing each other, and their local wildlife...
Perhaps you'd like to peruse this list before you make any wild claims about Africans not being able to invent anything - warship engines, carbon filaments, communication systems, gas masks, refrigeration systems, the list goes on. Before you claim they were helped by 'white civiization' by being in the United States, how many whites have patented revolutionary inventions in the middle of the Congo? Answers on a postcard, please.
The Congolese savages are right now finishing off the last 700 GORILLAS ON EARTH.
You couldn't be more uninformed if you tried. While there are, admittedly only around 700 mountain gorillas left, you miss out quite spectacularly on a couple of points:
But just keep telling us, Jews, "We're all the same, and you MUST allow millions of third world blacks and Mestizo scum to live next door to you, and to get special preferences in everything - jobs, schooling, prison sentences, etc.etc. Free food for the invaders, while the remaining whites have to work our butts off to pay taxes to support these dysgenic parasites.
According to Immigration statistics, the number of African-born citizens in the United States is around 1.1m, and for South American-born citizens it's around 2.4m. Also, would you like to point out evidence of systematic special treatment for minorities in the justice system? Last I heard, even in the states that haven't slapped down affirmative action it hadn't gone so far as to spread to the courts. Also, name me one government organization set up to give minorities 'special treatment' in education - and no, the UNCF doesn't count, as it's not a government body. Keep trying.
Can any liberal asshole show me which part of this is untrue?
Which part? How about three. Jewish Liberal 1, Slashdot troll 0.
Dealing with lawyers would be a lot less tedious if they all looked like Casey Novak.
With rampant corporate off-shoring driving our young people away from careers in science and technology, it's only a matter of time before we lack the technical know-how to do these things. Of course, NASA could always outsource the work to China...
I grew up in Titusville FL during the space race. My Father worked on the Apollo program. What is sad about this (US v. China/et al in moon race) is that they are projecting almost twice as long to get there now as it origianally took. From Kennedy's speech until July 1969 was just about 7 1/2 - 8 years. No PCs, no Super computers, no composite materials. We have 28 years of accumulated space craft performance data since then. We should be able to go back in 5 years. Modify the old Saturn plans, same for CSM and LEM (Command Service Module and Lunar Excursion Module) build the sobs and light the candle. But the pols won't go for it. It's too important that they investigate steroid usage in baseball and corrupt umpires. Pretty effing sad. BTW, the space program from 1960 through today has been a net win (Profit). When you add up the benefits of that came out of the space program, it's more than paid for itself on many level. Lets go back.
Well said.
Beat the US "back" to the moon? What kind of metric is this? The US beat everyone to the moon, and nothing that China does now short of building a time machine will change that. Revisiting the moon serves no purpose and should certainly not be sponsored by taxpayer money. This is an attempt by the NASA administrator to get funding for a pointless project. Whether this attempt succeeds or not, it demonstrates a flaw in the structure of our government. We need an amendment to the constitution that prohibits the government from sponsoring pointless projects like these. These kinds of decisions should not be left at the discretion of bureaucrats.
As for his claim that "nations look up to other nations that appear to be at the top of the technical pyramid, and they want to do deals with those nations. It's one of the things that made us the world's greatest economic power." Where is the evidence? It makes far more sense that nations want to do deals with those who give them the best deals.
Now, don't quote me on this, but I do believe that China may have long term plans to build a moonbase once it finds a way of being able to get to and from the moon efficiently. One of the ideas proposed for the moonbase was a Mass Driver to make it easier to get cargo etc to earth by propelling it at great speeds. There is, however, one other use for a Mass Driver; Orbital bombardment. Why spend tons and tons of money on nuclear weapons when all you need to do is build a giant Space catapult capable of hurling small asteroids at specific targets on Earth? The US needs to be looking to space to see if it's next attacks are going to come from there. At the moment, the US has a treaty in place with Russia and a few other countries to ensure that someone will not start building weapons in space.
The thought of controlling orbital space from the moon is absurd. If you wanted to control space, you'd do it from space - where there was no need to escape a gravity well and you didn't have to wait for the moon to go somewhere you want. It's not like you can do a lot of weapons building on the moon without pretty much shipping everything from earth anyway.
Not to mention that a fixed emplacement on the moon is far more vulnerable to all sorts of attacks than a moving station in orbit...
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
What does the article mean, "beat the US back to the moon."
Isn't that like the last straggler in a 1000 meter dash saying they are going to beat the winner somehow ?
The US already won that race, the race is over, China can only hope to come in 2nd or 3rd, but NOT FIRST!!
No one mentioned a thing about worker productivity.
You did (indirectly) when you started talking about prices. Productivty has everything to do with what you get for the money you spend... without factoring in worker productivity you cannot really say the Chinese have any kind of price advantage even with supposedly cheaper parts and labor (hey, aren't WE also buying some of our parts from the same sources?).
As others have stated, it's nice that the chinese are close to only being fourty years behind us in space technology. Perhaps when they arrive they can set up a relay for us to make communication from our manned Mars base easier.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
It will be about national prestige. Look, America, Russian, Europe, China, Japan, Brazil, North Korea, Israel, and even South Africa either launch or are seeking to launch within a decade. In addition, we have a large number of private companies that are about to launch (spacex, scaled, armadillo, new shepard; and that is just a few of the companies that are working on solutions). The space stations will be manned by countries that want to make a name for themselves and they will be happy to lease them. In addition, once bigelow is on luna, I am guessing that every nation will be paying for one of their stations (IMHO, by 2015). The question is, will America allow it to go to just anyone?
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
But at what cost? The US essentially moved a sizable chunk their manufacturing carbon and pollution footprint from the 70s and 80s to the PRC and the citizens are paying for it with much shorter life spans, a nearly unrecoverable ecosystem and no real economic benefit since most of the profit is going to the single individuals in power rather than programs or equal sharing to fix the problems the have sewn.
Yes globalization can be good but if you notice the current trends theres going to be alot more of political and social stratification in the coming decades between "east" and "west" if you like it or not and because of how integrated our economies have become we're all gonna take a hit over this problem. Only the Russians like from the previous reply have a real chance due to the vast reserves of raw materials they have.
just my two cents after all.
I disagree. I think spending money on this right now is like spending money developing micro ships in the 30s when what we should be developing is vacuum tubes, which is to say we're getting ahead of ourselves. We already know we can get to the moon, we've done it plenty of times. When we are closer to being able to actually do something useful there is when we should go back again.
I disagree, Transistors could have been built in the 30's. What wasn't available was the knowledge of what one could do with semiconductors.
Also, in regards to the 20 years figure for the course of your entire lifetime, there are plenty of Sci-Fi concepts that are like that. Virtually every Sci-Fi movie and TV show out there calls the time line too short for the technology they depict and plenty of "experts" have made the exact same mistakes. Shoot, according to some scientist from decades ago we should have already long ago hit peak oil and should be running out by now.
Bad analogy. We didn't run out of oil because of several factors: more oil was discovered, new technologies for mining existing oil were discovered, and as oil grows more scarse, demand for it declines. These people would have been right ignoring the prior factors. In comparison, all we know about lunar settlement is that if you don't try, you don't get there.
China is simply telling the whole world, "Look, we're 40 years behind the USA!" Not very impressive IMHO.
Given that the US can't currently go to the Moon, then I suppose that means the US is 40 years behind itself too.I am somewhat doubtful that things will go as planned for anyone going back to the moon or to the moon for the first time (or anywhere else in space for that matter).
;-)
-The US has had an incredibly rocky ride this decade, with a government that, by any measure, is seriously incompetent and more interested in ideology than real goals. I won't get into the massive amounts of American money and lives wasted in the orgy of death and blood that is Iraq, except to say that the US could have built a whole space fleet with that money. I also seriously doubt that NASA is the same organisation that it was back in the 1960s. The bloated bureaucracy that is now NASA has a major problem with its top heavy structure swallowing more funds than the Chinese even needed to get a man in space. NASA also seems to be far less technically competent than it was back then (Columbia, drunk astronauts, love triangles gone south, political intrigues etc). Added to this is the tendency for big US projects (Space Shuttle, F-22 tec to go massively over budget and time)
There will also probably be a very different kind of person in power in the US in 2009, most likely Hilary Clinton or Mitt Romney (I have no idea how realistic this is, maybe Cheney will run and crazy people will vote him in). One of the biggets problems facing the new US government will be to fix the US economy - the gigantic foreign debt - and the political problems of a decade of war and corruption. It is no small task, and given that the export/import imbalance isn't likely to change soon, it might not happen at all.
All this might mean that priorities could very well be switched away from the manned space programme, again.
-Private enterprise, as someone else here put it, has not yet achieved a man in space. The enormous tasks of building man rated rockets and saftey features is something that I don't think private enterprise, no, not even Google, will achieve soon. Keeping people alive and safe in space is something that requires vast amounts of money. Or else, why do you think the Europeans haven't built their own manned space vehicle yet? They have a successful launcher business in Ariane, but have not allocated the funds for manned vehicles yet.
- The Chinese are much maligned here on Slashdot for, mostly, the wrong reasons. They have the commitment, the will, and approach the whole task of manned space flight very cautiously, and they tend to, as far as is known, stick to their goals. Not only that, but the whole "China copied Russian rockets and manned capsules" is way out of line. Neither the rockets, the Long March, nor the capsules, are Russian. The capsule looks like a Soyuz, and has the same basic format, but it is bigger and all the systems are of modern Chinese design. They most likely chose the Soyuz format because it is a known system that works very well. The Chinese might copy the Apollo system for moon landings, who knows. No, Chinese problems lie in their strict state control, which tends to muzzle real problems, massive pollution which might eventually become so bad as to result in social unrest (this has already happened in some cases) and enormous disparity between the poor and the rich in China, which already results in social unrest.
They might even have a communist revolution there.
But if they want, I'm sure the Chinese will otherwise eventually get to the moon.
-The Russians have the technology, the experience, the know-how, and 40 years of continuous manned space flight. They did design and build a manned lunar programme, which, if it hadn't been for the political intrigues of the Soviet System, might very well have gotten there. They could scale the system up for modern requirements, and they would have a head start on anyone but the US. They had a working shuttle, the Buran, which they gave up when the Soviet Union collapsed. They had a massive, working lift system for their shuttle, Energia, whose manufacturer is still in business and could easily restart the programme. They
What's up with the "overrated" mod for my comment? It'd be nice if somebody could just tell me what they disagreed with, instead of just modding me down.
Our flags on the moon, we own it. I say we nuke 'em.
Take all the cash dedicated to going to the moon and invest it in our nation. Social programs, infrastructure, technology, donkey shows, training, etc. Plus: Been there, done that, got the rock.
Yea, we have no plants that manufacture vacuum tubes anymore. So I guess we're just headed back to the stone age, huh? Great logic.
The USA/NASA is focusing on landing on MARS. The moon? Been there done that . . .
Yea, we have no plants that manufacture vacuum tubes anymore. So I guess we're just headed back to the stone age, huh? Great logic.
We have superior replacements for those vacuum tubes. But we can't get back to the Moon.
The USA/NASA is focusing on landing on MARS. The moon? Been there done that . . .
When I hear this, I have to ask, what's next? After we land on Mars and get bored, should we land on Jupiter next? The Sun?
As I see it, the Moon is more valuable right now than sending people to other planets for the simple reason it is a light second from Earth. The Moon can participate directly in Earth's economy. It's easier to put stuff into Earth orbit from the Moon. No matter how you put it, Mars will be months away for a long time.
I agree 100% that the moon offers a lot of value. That's why NASA's plans to reach the moon by 2037 include the first step of returning to the moon by 2020. Sometimes I wish NASA could be tasked with starting programs that bring in revenue (like moon-mining) instead of only spending billions on nothing but interesting science missions.
But as to the question of whether China has caught up to the USA or passed them in the space/moon race? They are just beginning to do what the USA and Russia were doing back in 1969. Private US companies have already put men in space. The USA has space probes that have been operating in space for so long and traveling so fast that they are completely outside solar system. The USA has rovers on Mars that have been operating for over 1300 Martian days. The USA has already landed dozens of men on the moon decades ago.
China's biggest manned space feat so far is keeping 2 men in space for 5 days. The USA and Russia have been doing that several times each year for more than 30 years already. If the USA is in no hurry to get back on the surface of the moon it is likely that they've already been there and now have moved on to more complex and scientifically interesting projects.
Beating the Chi-Coms back to the moon, after we already been there and done thatover 40 years ago, is a ridiculous goal for space exploration. We know all we need to know about that big rock in the sky, and if the Reds want second helpings let'em have it, I say.
-- Jimtown Kelly
The question should be: has the U.S. (or ANY HUMAN for that matter) EVER been to the moon? If so, how did we overcome the issue with the Van Allen radiation belts?
-TheCreditMaster
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Zienia Merton is visibly Asian. She's Anglo-Burmese (let's not mince on details like how pronounced one's facial features). How about the late Marc Zuber (so many uncredited appearances to become a 'Where's Waldo' of sorts)? What of the fellow who played Toshiro Fujita on the epsode Black Sun? MBA certainly had its share of Asians.
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What wasn't available was the knowledge of what one could do with semiconductors.
Exactly my point. We currently don't know how to do anything on the moon that is worth while and/or cost efficient so why bother to go there now? When we have a plan ready to set up a moon base either as a way point for further travel, to extract resources or for anything else you can think up, that's when we should start making trips back. Otherwise all we're doing is walking around and looking at rocks, something we've already done a number of times.
Bad analogy. We didn't run out of oil because of several factors: more oil was discovered, new technologies for mining existing oil were discovered, and as oil grows more scarse, demand for it declines. These people would have been right ignoring the prior factors. In comparison, all we know about lunar settlement is that if you don't try, you don't get there.
You're carrying the analogy too far. My only point with that was to point to another area in which experts have repeatedly made bad time estimates.
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When America finally adapts, there will be a significant percentage of the populace in the K Camps being rendered with municipal waste into fertilizer and synthetic fuels.
Why is it that on the back of every Longhaired Dirtbag [TM] vehicle there is the seemingly mandatory 'Free Tibet' bumper sticker? Communists protesting action of a communist government! What a hoot!
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