Toshiba Execs Declare HD DVD Not Dead Yet

Lucas123 writes "HD DVD proponent Toshiba remains defiant that its format will not succumb to the mounting tsunami of support for Blu-ray Discs. Akio Ozaka, head of Toshiba America Consumer Products, said at CES today that he was surprised by Warner's decision." It should also be noted that the HD DVD group has cancelled many of their meetings at CES.

Comments

It's only MOSTLY dead.

[JustShootMe]

...In-con-CEIV-able.

Re:It's only MOSTLY dead.

[Divebus]

Not dead yet: Toshiba execs standing there with stopwatches saying "Wait for it... wait for it..."

Re:It's only MOSTLY dead.

[xENoLocO]

It's a shame they haven't been like... advertising for it. Compared to Blu-Ray, hardly anyone has even heard of it.

Regardless, I'm holding out until the next big thing (tm).

Re:It's only MOSTLY dead.

[VGPowerlord]

It's official; ComputerWorld now confirms: HD DVD is dying

Yes, but did Netcraft confirm it?

Re:It's only MOSTLY dead.

[Fred_A]

It's a shame they haven't been like... advertising for it. Compared to Blu-Ray, hardly anyone has even heard of it. I know it sounds silly but BluRay has a catchy name and people remember it. HDDVD just looks like a bad day at Scrabble. The naming decisions may be what sealed the fate of both standards.

Re:It's only MOSTLY dead.

[kundziad]

It's funny because I would personally choose HD DVD if I were to judge by names. It gives the impression of being just another rock solid format like CD-R or DVD-RW.

Blu-ray, on the other hand, sounds like just another marketing invention, without any serious consideration of the implications of its widespread usage, etc.

Re:It's only MOSTLY dead.

[Wowsers]

They really did need better marketing. They could rename it HDVD (backed by Microsoft and Windows Vista). That will really help sales.

Re:It's only MOSTLY dead.

[Tony Hoyle]

HDDVD always suffered from brand confusion. Walk into any electronics store and you'll see HDMI upscaling DVD players marketed as 'HD Compatible DVD Play' or even sometimes just 'HD DVD Player'.

Then sitting lonely on a shelf is a Toshiba HD-E1 'HDDVD Player' at £200 - 5 times the cost of all the others - and nobody buys because they assume it's more of the same.

OTOH Bluray is clearly different, so people are more likely to ask questions and consider it to be something different.

Re:It's only MOSTLY dead.

[Wildfire Darkstar]

HD-DVD needs three layers to reach 51 GB. Blu-Ray hits 50 GB at two layers. Both formats are capable of more layers than that, but the demand for that much space is not yet significant enough to justify the investment costs. For what it's worth, however, prototype Blu-Ray discs have been produced with a capacity of up to 200 GB. All of this information is likewise on Wikipedia.

Re:It's only MOSTLY dead.

[blzabub]

Okay, since you are the guy who did this, maybe you could buy a Blu-ray player now and kill that format as well. While I've got you here, maybe you could grab a copy of Windows Vista or did you buy that already?

Re:It's only MOSTLY dead.

[Anonymous Coward]

I know it sounds silly but BluRay has a catchy name and people remember it. HDDVD just looks like a bad day at Scrabble. The naming decisions may be what sealed the fate of both standards.

It's funny how the Slashbots were saying the exact opposite before HD DVD's apparent demise. They were claiming HD DVD would win with Joe Consumer because "HD DVD" sounds like a better DVD, while Blu-ray is "WTF?"

Good to see that conventional "wisdom" is as useless as ever. :)

Re:It's only MOSTLY dead.

[pan0k]

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Re:It's only MOSTLY dead.

[Sancho]

Blu-ray has a lot going for it. Everyone who bought a PS3 assuming that it would be the best console ever got a Blu-ray player. Blu-ray has also been marketed like nobody's business, and it got Disney as a backer.

From a production studio perspective, it has better DRM. HD-DVD DRM was cracked pretty early on, and I bet that caused studio execs to wet their pants. Blu-ray (and BD+) were cracked later, but firsts often matter more.

HD-DVD has... very little to compete with Blu-ray. Independent examinations have shown slight quality differences favoring HD-DVD for films released in both formats, though there's no technical reason that this must be the case. They've also got pricing--HD-DVD players are cheaper than Blu-ray. Generally speaking, though, that's not going to matter much. The studios are going to do what they want, and they want draconian, difficult-to-break DRM.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings...

[flyingfsck]

So watch out when they release classical operas on HD DVD.

Re:It ain't over till the fat lady sings...

[Z00L00K]

Or when the Dead Parrot appears...

"No, no, 'e's uh,...he's resting."

Endless recreations of the Dead Parrot Sketch

[stox]

to follow.

Re:Endless recreations of the Dead Parrot Sketch

[Spudtrooper]

Alternatively:

Toshiba declares that HD-DVD feels happy, would like to go for a walk.

Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[Anonymous Coward]

There are some 10-15 million rabid Sony hating Xbox/Microsoft fans in the US. They will support any 'not Sony format' with a fanatical commitment that is easily mistaken for broad consumer support.

Toshiba fell victim to believing HD-DVD was going to ever be supported by anyone beyond that niche demographic. And it cost hundreds of millions in their losing battle against BluRay.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[Anonymous Coward]

Aren't I allowed to hate *both* MS and Sony?

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[The Analog Kid]

Toshiba should have demanded that the 360 carry an HD-DVD drive standard. The addon carries extra bulk, and if you combine that with the cost of the 360, you might as well have just bought a PS3 instead.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[dabraun]

Toshiba should have demanded that the 360 carry an HD-DVD drive standard. The addon carries extra bulk, and if you combine that with the cost of the 360, you might as well have just bought a PS3 instead.

How would they demand that? Microsoft simply does not care about HD-DVD enough to risk tanking it's game console like Sony did (by forcing the price up for something that doesn't actually help games).

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[Bill, Shooter of Bul]

There are some 10-15 million rabid Sony hating Xbox/Microsoft fans in the US. They will support any 'not Sony format' with a fanatical commitment

If true, that is by far one of the most alarming statistics I have ever read. If large cooperations marketing has succeeded to the point that there are 10 million people that will not buy a company's product regardless of its technical merits and price point, we've reached a truly low point in society.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[beoba]

I like the part where you complain about fanboyism, and then immediately start going into wild speculation about "divx-like lockdowns and timed rentals", then follow that up with complaints of "selective buyouts" that both sides were doing.

Frankly, I'm just glad the whole thing's over, so that hopefully the burners will start getting more common/cheaper.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[beoba]

Unlike taxes, buying Spiderman 3 is not obligatory, so I'm failing to see your point. Care to specify what makes you consider HD-DVD to be a "better win", or are you going to continue sticking to PR-speak?

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[ergo98]

Unlike taxes, buying Spiderman 3 is not obligatory, so I'm failing to see your point.

Buying a Big Mac isn't obligatory, but when I do I pay tax on it. It still is tax.

Blu-ray comes with a significant price premium -- for both technical and licensing reasons -- over HD-DVD. Add the value of combo discs that you can get for HD-DVD, but not Blu-ray, and the average household either has to upgrade wholesale at once (have fun getting a blu-ray player for the SUV), or buy all media twice.

Blu-ray is a much more expensive proposition for exactly the same end result.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[Baumi]

Blu-ray is alive today only because a punch of pimply-faced teens got a PS3 for Christmas, and suddenly believed that they had to defend all things Sony, including the blu-ray format that they happened into by chance. While I own neither a PS3 nor an XBox 360, I find it funny, how the PS3 is usually getting slammed for being too expensive, having no cool exclusive titles and generally not seilling well - however as soon as we're talking about BluRay, it's suddenly supposed to be this Juggernaut driving out the other HD format. Could all the fanboys please decide whether they want to bah it for being a failure or for being too successful?

Adaptive encryption...yeah, expect divx like lock-downs and timed rentals soon enough with blu-ray. Rentals are always timed in some way or other - that's what makes them different from buying. Actually, timed rentals are IMHO pretty much the only valid use for DRM. (Especially when I can download them instead of having to go to ta store or wait for a DVD in the mail.)

Sony trojan horsed the PS3 into households So it goes like this:
1. Add Blu-Ray to console
2. Be a year late to market, more expensive than competition, and overall the worst selling console
3. ???
4. Dominate the HD market!

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[Stormwatch]

Aren't I allowed to hate *both* MS and Sony?

Yes. Buy a Wii (if you can find one).

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[kilgortrout]

Nobody has to buy anything. And most US households will not be buying either blu-ray or hd-dvd. They'll be sticking with plain old dvd for the foreseeable future. People aren't holding back because of perceived format wars. They're holding back because there's not much value for the consumer in HD anything over what's available today.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[timeOday]

Which reminds me, Sony execs must be popping corks and slapping high-fives about now for their decision to build Blu-Ray into the PS3. I still happen to believe putting Blu-Ray into the PS3 was a purely strategic move that hurt PS3 customers by delaying shipment and jacking up the price, but if PS3 sales (though diminished) are what put Blu-Ray over the top, it doesn't really matter, does it? Big bonuses all around for root-kitting, format-pushing, technology-bundling Sony. This victory will make them a stronger company and increase their power to set technology standards, which given their close ties to content producers (they are content producers) is bound to be good for everybody but the customer. I hate it when the bad guys go long and win big.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[Hal_Porter]

yeah, expect divx like lock-downs and timed rentals soon enough with blu-ray. What's wrong with DIVX style lockdowns btw? It seems like there's a market for it.

E.g. Netflix could send out disks which would become unplayable at the end of the rental period so you wouldn't need to return them. As far as I can tell the costs of producing a disk is negligable for DVD and CD and will probably become so for BlueRay and HDVD. So most of the cost is essentially an IP rights license. That implies that you could sell limited duration licenses to people for less than the perpetual one they normally get with a pressed disk.

Actually you could even imagine some sort of equivalent of Flexi singles - i.e. the disk would be manufactured to last for a short period for straight mechanical reasons. Maybe a biodegradeable disk so you can compost it when it expires. I can imagine you'd have a shelf of very cheap time limited movies (a dollar or so) at eye level near the checkouts in supermarkets. Basically the Top 10 best selling DVDs in a disposable format, designed to attract impulse buyers who only want to watch them once.

And it would be up to you whether you bought them/picked them up - I think there will always be a market for pressed disks that don't expire. In fact DIVX shows that maybe that is 100% of the market for DVDs - i.e. people won't buy things with an expiry date, regardless of cost. Mind you, you could make them wholly ad supported and bundle them with newspapers. In the UK newspapers often give away audio CDs - they pay a very small fee to the IP owner for the rights to do it. If you could convince the IP owners that they're giving away only a short license period, maybe you could give away DVDs instead.

But why worry about it? If there is market for time limited movies then you're free to ignore them. And if there isn't a market for them it isn't an issue. And it's odd that the same people who complain that 'the MAFIAA' should be innovating new delivery models rather than litigating tend to complain about things like DIVX, which is an example of them doing exactly that.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[squiggleslash]

That would have destroyed sales of the 360. Microsoft was absolutely right to keep the drive out of the console, it would have pushed prices up with very little net gain for the target demographic. PS3 users have been effectively paying a "Blu-ray tax" thanks to Sony making the opposite decision.

I think Microsoft went too far in its support for HD DVD. If, as seems likely, HD DVD does cease pushed as a mainstream format before the end of the year, I wonder if they'll reconsider the idiotic "secure path" crap they put in Vista, which has been widely blamed for Vista's problems? They put all of this in in the belief that this would help get Hollywood on-side with computer-managed high definition video, and HD-DVD in particular. With Blu-ray not making managed copy compulsory, managed copy is effectively dead, meaning the only thing left as far as Vista's DRM issues go is basic playback. If Microsoft yanked all of this from Vista, would the AACS at least concede to some degree in licensing a few non-secure path Blu-ray playback tools, or would they be content to see Blu-ray effectively illegal to view on post- and pre-Vista based Windows computers?

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[squiggleslash]

I'm pro-HD DVD myself, but this "Sony vs Microsoft" or "Sony vs Toshiba" crap has to end.

Sony was the largest backer of Blu-ray and was involved in its early development. But Blu-ray is a format controlled by a wide consortium of interests, of which Sony is a small player. Blu-ray was designed to appeal to studios, and to some extent, it does more than HD-DVD: Studios want region encoding, they want (however moronic it might be) 1980s software style copy prevention schemes (which, effectively, is what BD+ allows them to do. Make your discs faulty and then write Java code to make the player ignore the faults. Wow. That worked really well back when Woz was building disk drives...), and they don't want to be forced to sell anything other than a disc. HD DVD appealed to consumers. It's designed to be reliable at the expense of the discs being easier to copy. It's not region encoded. And it made managed copy a mandatory feature.

These feature collections have nothing to do with promoting Sony, Microsoft, or Toshiba, and there's pretty much no way any of these three companies could suddenly start dictating terms to the studios if the format they've nailed their colours to succeeds.

So can we stop using Sony as a reason to attack Blu-ray?

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[totally bogus dude]

I think the disparity is probably more an indication of just how few people care about HD formats at the moment. Sure there's enough people to make some noise, but when a "poorly-selling" console is able to "dominate" the market it tells you that the market isn't particularly large. It also suggests that a significant number of people are getting a HD player not because they specifically want one, but because the console they've bought happens to include it.

That's not necessarily a bad marketing / sales strategy though -- if you've already got a Blu-Ray player in your house, why go out and buy an HD-DVD player just to watch HD content? It also gives you a chance to try out HD content to see if it's worth it without having to first buy a player which you might never use again.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[pionzypher]

Perhaps not, but many households have a spare dvd player in the bedroom, kitchen, garage, etc. The kids might have one in their room. His point of the issues with migration is a good one. HD-DVD had one that didn't involve trashing discs because their format was incompatible.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[twistedsymphony]

Since when is the BRD vs HDDVD battle video game related? if I hate Sony AND MS how exactly will a Wii aide me in purchasing a HD movie format? Honestly that's why Toshiba had my support... why Supporting Toshiba somehow makes me an MS fanboy I don't really understand.

Despite how much I like the HD-DVD format more than Blu-Ray Toshiba really needs to just throw in the towel at this point and do the consumer market a favor...

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[BrentH]

While I agree that MS probably didn't want to risk supporting a dead format, I've read more than once about complaint from gamedevelopers that the 360 only supporting DVD places too much constraint on supplying the content they'd like. Games of more than 9GB are not rare these days and the PS3 has an advantage there.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[WK2]

There are some 10-15 million rabid Sony hating Xbox/Microsoft fans in the US. They will support any 'not Sony format' with a fanatical commitment If true, that is by far one of the most alarming statistics I have ever read. If large cooperations marketing has succeeded to the point that there are 10 million people that will not buy a company's product regardless of its technical merits and price point, we've reached a truly low point in society.

Large corporate marketing has succeeded to the point that there are millions of people in the US who will buy a product regardless of it's technical merits and price point. (cue MS jokes) The problem is that nobody is an expert in everything, and sometimes we have to make uninformed decisions.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[irc.goatse.cx troll]

Admittedly to fill up 9GB you're probably talking movies, but it's still not impossible to do it without. Think lengthy complex soundtrack, lots and lots of textures for multiple dissimilar worlds, detailed mapping, redundant sound effects (i.e 5+ different sounds for each 'event' to keep it from getting repetitive, mostly with vocals.)

Then theres also just really huge(as in span) games like the Final Fantasy series. Up the graphics, multiply it by game length..

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[Tony Hoyle]

Not even close...

Bluray $337

HDDVD $299

Or if you're into bundles, Walmart to a PS3 and 15 free disks for $499.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[asc99c]

I think this actually accentuates the differences between the platforms - you comment is very fitting for typical American-style action-oriented games but not for games with a more relaxed playing style as is popular in Japan. It is likely a feature that will be better used and better received in the Japanese market.

Many sports and racing games could benefit from additional space for videos also - I'd happily watch a bit of HD video of the new Nissan GT-R if it was included in Gran Turismo 5.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[MojoStan]

Sony execs must be popping corks and slapping high-fives about now for their decision to build Blu-Ray into the PS3. I still happen to believe putting Blu-Ray into the PS3 was a purely strategic move that hurt PS3 customers by delaying shipment and jacking up the price, but if PS3 sales (though diminished) are what put Blu-Ray over the top, it doesn't really matter, does it? Maybe. I'm not sure, especially if this kills the long-term profitability of Sony's gaming division. The gaming division used to bring in the majority (yes, more than half) of Sony's total operating income. For those that haven't heard, Sony's gaming division lost a staggering Xbox-like ¥232 billion ($1.9 billion) in 2007 (total operating income ¥72 billion/$608 million). At the PS1's peak in 1999, the gaming division's operating income was ¥136 billion (out of ¥339 billion total). At the PS2's peak in 2003, gaming earned ¥113 billion (¥185 billion total).

If Blu-ray becomes the dominant video format (over DVD and downloads), how much income (from sales and licensing) does this bring to Sony? I know Blu-ray is primarily "Sony's format," but there's a lot of "partners" in the Blu-ray Disc Association. Will this Blu-ray related income be worth the loss in gaming income?

Year: Gaming operating income/(loss), total operating income
2007: (¥232 billion), ¥72 billion
2006: 9, 226
2005: 43, 146
2004: 68, 99
2003: 113, 185
2002: 83, 135
2001: (51), 225
2000: 77, 223
1999: 136, 339
1998: 117, 520

Sony's Annual Reports (big freakin' PDF files): http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/ar/Archive.html

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[LordZardoz]

Blu-Ray is a Sony invention, and the primary means by which Sony has promoted the technology was to integrate it into the PS3. The consumer base for videogamers who are willing to spend huge amounts of money is easier to leverage than people who are content with standard DVD. This strategy has not worked out as well as Sony has hoped, since between Blu-Ray and the Cell Processor, the PS3 is a very expensive bit of consumer technology. Never the less, Sony is starting to make some more progress with the PS3 as the price drops, and even the less than hoped for PS3 install base is small, it makes for a much larger Blu-Ray install base than there would be otherwise.

Microsoft has chosen to back HD-DVD, and there is supposed to be an HD-DVD player add on for the Xbox 360. But because it is an add on, there is not a great deal of incentive to buy it.

END COMMUNICATION

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[Gr8Apes]

So can we stop using Sony as a reason to attack Blu-ray? No. It's simply the most effective attack against Bluray, since lots of people understand Sony==rootkit==bad.

Here's the real scoop: Bluray and HDDVD are equivalent from a consumer picture standpoint. There is no effective difference in the quality of the material presented to the consumer. Where they differ greatly is in consumer restrictions, with HDDVD having many fewer restrictions compared to Bluray, and also being far more stable than Bluray. I'm sure we've all heard the reports of the problems of BD/BD+ and playability on players? I wouldn't touch a BD player until there's a guarantee it will play all BD discs, without me having to do squat. Yes, I'm aware that HDDVD also "requires" updates, but so far, in 23 discs, not a single update has been required. BD encourages updates, HDDVD does not.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[samdu]

Blu-ray comes with a significant price premium -- for both technical and licensing reasons -- over HD-DVD.

It is also more expensive because, outside of the PS3, hardware manufacturers aren't subsidizing Blu-Ray. Toshiba has been selling HD DVD players at a loss for some time now. In essence, they were dumping them. And THAT is why they are just about the only ones making HD DVD players. Technology needs to drop in price naturally. There is NO incentive for hardware companies to sell disc players at a loss, as they don't get royalties on the back end like Toshiba does. Toshy squeezed out any chance of real competition on the player front by counting on money from royalties. The other cost differences between Blu-Ray and HD DVD are pretty much insignificant at this point.

Add the value of combo discs that you can get for HD-DVD

Most of the people I've encountered that had HD DVD players HATED the combo discs. They were noticeably more expensive than their Blu-Ray counterparts (when the same title was available on both).

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[samdu]

Then you might want to check out the PS3. Bluetooth controllers, headsets, mice, and keyboards, SATA hard drive, WiFi, USB, Linux installable (instructions in the manual), supports DivX playback and DLNA networking, Ethernet... There's a LOT of "standard" stuff in the PS3. More than Sony has gotten credit for so far. The only thing really remotely "proprietary" in the PS3 is the Blu-Ray drive. And that seems to be making its way to becoming a standard as well.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[CastrTroy]

Yes, but there are limits to working on any system. The PS3 has less usable RAM, the XBox 360 has less disc space, the Wii has less processing power, the computer has the highest limits, but the more you push the limits, the smaller your potential userbase becomes. Smart programmers/designers work within the limits of the system, to produce the best possible product. The dumb programmers/designers sit around and complain that the reason they can't do a good job is because of the limits of the system. If there isn't enough space on the disc, and multiple discs simply can't work due to the nature of your game. Then just compress the sound/video/images(textures) a little more. If the game doesn't look as nice on the XBox 360 as it does on the PS3, then just tell your users why. They should be able to accept that. In the end, the game will still be just as fun, regardless of the fact that the game doesn't look quite as good on one system as on the other. If visual effects are all your game relies on, your game is going to fail. The console that's currently selling the best, is the least powerful. This should go to show, that most people would rather have fun gameplay, and an affordable system, then uber-cool cutting edge graphics.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[Wdomburg]

Why exactly are you comparing two last gen players? The HD-A3 is $179.98, and the Panasonic DMP-BD30K (the only shipping 'final spec' BD standalone) is $414.99. From the announcements at CES it sounds like the gap will be narrowing shortly (with reasonable playerrs running $350 and crap off-brands around $300), but Toshiba still has a significant price advantage.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[gamer4Life]

Big bonuses all around for root-kitting, format-pushing, technology-bundling Sony.

Spoken like a true frothing-from-the-mouth Microsoft fanboy.

Sony has only "pushed" Blu-ray onto the PS3. Some may argue it was needed for the betterment of next-gen games.

Sony has allowed the PS3 users to incorporate standard hard drives, headsets, USB keyboards, Linux onto their system. No root-kitting involved whatsoever.

Were you talking about another product? If so, then it's off-topic, because as we know, Microsoft has done way more harm in forcing proprietary formats and software onto Windows.

Not only that, but they've set some harmful precedents that you fanboys seem to blindingly accept:

- multiple concurrent versions of consoles
- paying for online play
- an unacceptable rate of failure
- tying the console to the Windows platform ...as well as proprietary peripherals all across the board, from keyboards, headsets, wireless, hard drives.

If you really "hate it when the bad guys go long and win big", then you should not be rooting for Microsoft.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[DrXym]

Blu-ray comes with a significant price premium -- for both technical and licensing reasons -- over HD-DVD.

I don't believe that for a second. HD DVD and Blu Ray are so close to each other in terms of their system requirements, their technical specifications and the standards they implement that I doubt there is any significant difference in the cost of either.

If HD DVD appeared cheaper (appeared being the operative word), it is more likely due to Toshiba being the sole provider of HD DVD players while Blu Ray consisting of a consortium of consumer electronics firms. Toshiba can set its prices however it likes including taking a large loss while BDA members are attempting to sell their players for a profit.

I expect that even Sony didn't subsidize its standalone players (though maybe it did with the PS3) for the obvious reason that it doesn't want to hurt BDA members.

Even so, BD players are dropping rapidly. Some are already sub-$300 and chances are they'll be sub $200 before the year is out. Chinese manufacturers will get in on the act to ensure cheap end systems and there are plenty of new models being announced in CES.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic

[ShadowsHawk]

Agreed. I refuse to keep purchasing physical media. I am now told that I can't rip media off the disc because I don't own the media. They also will not replace the disc if it is damaged. They're not getting another dime from me until we regain our rights.

porn is blue ray is it not?

[Anonymous Coward]

..the death of HD-DVD right there.

Re:porn is blue ray is it not?

[JustShootMe]

Red light, blue ray.

Just don't use a blacklight, you'll never know what you'll find.

Re:porn is blue ray is it not?

[pionzypher]

Insightful? Someone wasn't paying attention and got it slightly backwards. Of course that wasn't exactly true either as there are apparently some titles out and more coming.

Re:porn is blue ray is it not?

[hords]

Now Digital Playground is releasing their titles on HD-DVD and Blu-ray. No longer exclusive like the were.

Re:porn is blue ray is it not?

[Aqua OS X]

Optical disk porn is irrelevant, most self respecting geeks masturbate to online porn. If you're watching set-top pornyou're either training for the masturbation olympics, or are too broke to own a computer (and likely too broke to own an HDTV).

Now, if you'll excuse me, I must address a popup window about squirting teens.

Re:porn is blue ray is it not?

[und0]

I'm awaiting for NinjasXXX and then maybe PiratesVsNinjasXXX...

Toshiba

[Moonpie Madness]

The DVD forum has been a bit of a bully, and while Toshiba made more then ten billion dollars through their involvement, I think a lot of companies are ready to try something else.

Blu-ray isn't the end of the world for them, as Japanese businesses are kinda incestuous and Toshiba has its own set of investments. Toshiba will make plenty of money, just not as much as they did last round.

I'm curious how Paramount deals with this. Does their contract (with MS or Toshiba) have an escape clause?

Anyway, HD DVD is done. Toshi can't be overtly honest about it until they get rid of some inventory. I saw a couple of people returning their HD DVD players, presumably from Christmas, to Target tonight. Are these people picking up PS3s? Probably some are. It's not like HD DVD owners should toss their systems, and I actually think they might be in for a pleasant round of super cheap movies and spare players.

And the Xbox 360 might even be helped by this. Think about it, the XBOX is not quiet enough to play a disc movie, at least for a lot of people. But it's just fine for downloads. Microsoft may ramp up and accelerate their download service now that this war is ending, instead of gaming each company against eachother like fools to slow adoption. Ps2 owners are slow adopted, but in my opinion 360 owners are fast adopters, and the console is more internet oriented. These people are much more likely to download movies, and I think the 360 is going to continue to do very well.

Warner did the right thing, and I'm confident there will be much more progress in HD movies. I think these films look much better than DVD, and while DVDs were much more of a revolution in technology, Blu-ray is a real step up that downloads cannot hope to compete with in the US.

We all knew this was going to end, and most of us realized bluray was going to win out. Warner had no leverage to end Blu-ray, so they used their power very effectively. And may have been planning this out. I expect to see Warner's movies all over Microsoft's system. I bet this was well known to MS, and the announcement the two companies have planned has to do with the 360's downloads.

In short, this is going to work out fine for everybody.

Re:Toshiba

[Moonpie Madness]

First, Sony won with minidiscs and won big. It's a hugely profitable format. Like billion dollar profits. In the US, it's not so big.

Second, downloads will not compete with blu-ray in this country. Sadly, there isn't going to be a great adoption of high speed internet for many years even if everything goes perfectly, which it will not. People with 1080p sets will want pictures that are enormous. 10gb minimum. The average home cannot download a movie of that quality very quickly, and the netflix model of distributing movies is much more efficient. Anyway, every expert in this industry is desperate to sell movies in HD capacities. Toshiba, Sony, and many others have spent billions. You think they are all wrong, but I haven't seen any reasons that justify your ideas. You really think every studio will make their entire library open online? And that enough people will download online to pay the kind of money we're talking about? And what about the royalties that the WGA is demanding? I think the studios worry their pie is smaller, and their cut is also smaller, with online distro.

As far as Sony losing in online distribution, I think that's also a bit silly. Sony knows how to sell songs and movies. And it just doesn't take a lot of awesome technology, beyond sheer server strength, to distribute content. If the PS3 continues to outsell the 360, they are going to do fine selling movies online.

But Sony is indeed taking their sweet ass time. They aren't letting the bandwitdh hogs like Home and movie distro out yet, mainly I think to avoid a lot of the problems MS is having with an obviously overwhelmed online service. Today, PS3's free service works well and MS's doesn't. I know that's temporary, but Sony is doing things carefully. You seem to think the Sony online experience executes much worse, but that's just not so. I have both, and usually the PS3 games have more players and less problems. The only problem is that the Ps3 has a very poor game selection. I spend more time playing my 360 because I like the games, but I wish I was on the PS3, which works very well.

I remember when PS3 released. Horribly overpriced with none of the promised games. Sony did that to win the format war. And you have to admit they would not have without this move. They aren't scrambling, they are actually acting methodically. One of your problems, as evidence by your dismissal oof the incredibly successful minidisc, is that you aren't considering the rest of the world. You can actually watch TV shows and more with the PS3, if you go to stores in different countries. Sony is obviously beating the 360 every but NA, and they are wise to do this, because those parts of the world are getting much richer much more quickly than the US. The dollar is slipping, and will continue to for at least some years. The Euro, Pound, Yen, etc, are much more valuable. Sony is killing the 360 where it's much more profitable and where the future is much more profitable.

Given how well things seem to be looking for the PS3, now that the absurdly early launch dearth of games and such is ending, it's hard to imagine that Sony will not be able to sell movies online. What do you think they will have to do to scramble? Sounds like a very easy task.

Re:Toshiba

[Osty]

Second, downloads will not compete with blu-ray in this country. Sadly, there isn't going to be a great adoption of high speed internet for many years even if everything goes perfectly, which it will not. People with 1080p sets will want pictures that are enormous. 10gb minimum. The average home cannot download a movie of that quality very quickly, and the netflix model of distributing movies is much more efficient. Anyway, every expert in this industry is desperate to sell movies in HD capacities. Toshiba, Sony, and many others have spent billions. You think they are all wrong, but I haven't seen any reasons that justify your ideas. You really think every studio will make their entire library open online? And that enough people will download online to pay the kind of money we're talking about? And what about the royalties that the WGA is demanding? I think the studios worry their pie is smaller, and their cut is also smaller, with online distro.

You don't say what country you're referring to in regards to broadband adoption, so I'll just assume you're talking about the US. Here in the States, there's a disconnect between urban/suburban and rural areas with respect to broadband, but that gap is slowly closing with DSL technologies working farther and farther away from COs, long-distance wireless, and fiber rollouts (I grew up in a rural area, and even my parents have broadband now thanks to long-distance wireless from the town 5 miles away). That combined with the fact that much of the population is in urban/suburban areas where broadband is available means that most of the market can get movies online if they were available.

On distribution speed, nothing's ever going to beat the convenience of driving to your local Blockbuster (assuming you have a local movie rental place, anyway) and picking up a disk. That said, I can download a ~5GB 720p movie off of Xbox Live in about a day on my 6mpbs cable line, while Netflix takes two days to get me a new movie (even with a local distribution center, it takes a day to get there and a day to get back), so I can definitely see online distribution taking over the Netflix/Blockbuster Online model. Sure, I'm "only" getting a 720p copy off of Xbox Live, but my TV is 720p and most HD disk material is natively 720p as well so it's not like I'm losing anything. That means it's a race between 1080p as a distribution standard and bandwidth increases allowing me to still download movies in about a day.

And finally, I don't think studios are going to be too concerned over their cut, since online movie distribution generally follows a rental pattern. You pay $5, and you can keep the movie for 2 weeks (some work needs to be done on the current licensing, as Xbox Live has a lame "2 weeks or 24 hours after first play" restriction that is too limiting -- bump the "after first play restriction" to 3 days or even drop it entirely and people will be much happier). Maybe I'm atypical, but I'm not a big movie purchaser. Once I've seen a movie once, that's enough for me. I own maybe a dozen DVDs of movies or TV series that I actually cared to keep, but the vast majority is a one-time-only deal. Given the prevalence of movie rentals, I suspect I'm not alone.

As far as Sony losing in online distribution, I think that's also a bit silly. Sony knows how to sell songs and movies. And it just doesn't take a lot of awesome technology, beyond sheer server strength, to distribute content. If the PS3 continues to outsell the 360, they are going to do fine selling movies online.

I was referring more to the interface and availability rather than raw capacity. As a marketplace, Xbox Live is very appealing because it presents everything to you in a logical way. PSN is more haphazard, acting as a simple web page in the PS3 browser. Unless you're using a mouse and keyboard on your PS3 (which you can, though it's a bit annoying to do so from a couch), the Xbox Live interface is much easier to navigate and

Re:Toshiba

[GweeDo]

"If the PS3 continues to outsell the 360, they are going to do fine selling movies online."

When exactly did the PS3 start outselling the 360? In Nov for example the 360 sold 770k and the PS3 only sold 466K according to NPD. Here is a decent graph of sales over the last year to show that the PS3 worldwide isn't closing the gap.

blueray hd dvd?

[timmarhy]

correct me if i'm wrong but isn't blue ray (i refuse to go with the stupid spelling fad) better on a technical level anyway?

They are both Laserdisc 2.0 anyway

[grapeape]

Wait for CableLabs, Phillips, Comcast, MS and others to announce the future of Tru2way (formerly known as Opencable) at CES this week. Then the war can begin anew. Tru2way is MS's inroad to the US cable systems and will allow their IPTV to be brought stateside, their launch with British Telecom is scheduled for this week as well. All the major cable providers are onboard including Time Warner. This all may just be playing into MS hands after all.

Re:blueray hd dvd?

[T-Bone_142]

From a technical stand point blu-ray is slightly better then HD-DVD, however HD-DVD's are region free. Either way i wont be buying any discs using either of the new formats any time soon. For me DVDs are good enough and i rip all everything to my had drive anyways.

From whence comes salvation? All is quiet.

[SuperKendall]

Form both the Toshiba and Microsoft CES keynotes, not a peep of any news that would have helped HD-DVD much even before Warner took out the wind from their sales and the water they were sailing on. Toshiba hardly mentioned HD-DVD at all (focusing on LCD TV's) and Microsoft didn't mention HD-DVD once! What exactly is the magical force that will keep HD-DVD going past this point - with the media generally declaring HD-DVD dead the consumers will believe that as well, and start not buying HD-DVD products and media in droves. There's already a hint Target is dropping HD-DVD (slipped out by a Phillips executive during a CES keynote).

Paramount and Universal will be doubly screwed now until they come to Blu-Ray - no-one will buy HD-DVD titles in any numbers to speak of, and lots of people may shy away from any SD DVD's until those studios move to Blu-Ray and produce an HD title to buy. I know I had stopped buying DVD's for over a year now, thinking that anything I liked enough to buy could wait for on HD.

Re:blueray hd dvd?

[Anonymous Coward]

I work for a museum, and part of my job is to store photographs and news stories from the present day in a safe archive for potential reference in the future. For now, both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are a long way away from attracting our attention as potential archival storage mediums, but all the same I've been concerned by news that Blu-Ray's data layer is on the under-side of the disc, completely exposed save for a lacquer-like coating of some type. That's different from HD-DVD, which follows the DVD in having the data layer actually sandwiched in the middle of the disc between the plastic top and bottom halves. If that's the case, I wonder if Blu-Ray isn't just another small step towards a throw-away future. The pessimist in me also wonders if there isn't an intentional disinterest in protecting that data layer better, because of course if it degrades over time that just means that, in the case of a movie or video game, the owner is just going to have a buy another copy after some period of time. That's just speculation on my part of course, and the media hasn't been around long enough for any meaningful real-world testing to be done (so far as I know). All the same, I can't see Sony and friends really viewing that possibility as a downside, can you?

The topic

[eebra82]

Toshiba Execs Delay the Death of HD DVD Fixed that for you.

Pissed off consumers

[tekrat]

So, the warranty on some HD-DVD players isn't even over yet, and the format is already being called dead, and there probably won't be any new content released after today.

Nice, so, all the people that spent $$$$ on some HD-DVD player or Xbox attachment are going to be mighty pissed off, as they have once again, fallen into what I call the High-Def money pit, where you have to constantly buy some new gizmo because the holders of the DRM willy nilly decide to change things.

How many TVs were sold as HD-ready, only to not be? How many 720p sets or even 1080i sets still don't have an HDMI connection? And let's not even get into Vista Media Center, or any of the other depricated formats that have lead to technological dead-ends and/or having to re-buy the same media all over again (MLB, anyone?)...

If I had been stupid enough to even join in the HD revolution, I'd be pissed off enough to start suing every company that dropped the ball. I'd start with demanding my money back, and when they refused, I'd start throwing lawyers into the mix.

I can't decide who's going to be marching on corporate america first with torches and pitchforks -- the early-adopters of HD, or those screwed out of TV when we switch to digital in Feb of 2009.

Either way there are going to be some demanding their pound of flesh. I just want to sit back and watch the whole thing -- in regular NTSC of course, because regular TV is good enough when you consider the content available.

TTYL

Re:Pissed off consumers

[aristotle-dude]

Both formats are irrelevant, its easier and cheaper to just download HD content. Who wants to mess around with discs? Do you think you could hook me up with your supplier of 100 MBit or faster internet access for really cheap? I don't think people who are buying 1080p TV's and either have no broadband available in their area or only have access to either Cable or DSL broadband are going to be interested in buying huge HDs to store all of the content, settle for heavily compressed 720p content with limited audio track options or wait for hours for the content to download.

Is that really true?

[zippthorne]

I know they keep saying that, but aren't BluRay disks still essentially 12 cm polycarbonate disks with a reflective layer and a pitted layer?

Is the process really so different that it's easier to build an entire new plant rather than retool an existing DVD plant?

Harder than HD-DVD I can understand, but assuming BRD has won the format war (especially depressing as consumers haven't really had a say yet), I find it hard to believe DVD plants will basically be gutted and replaced as they phase out and BRD phases in.

Cheaper already, and you forget about Deep Color..

[SuperKendall]

Yes, ever so slightly. BUT, it costs more to manufacture

Since many millions more discs have been pressed in Blu-Ray (thanks to PS3 games) the production costs have dropped substantially. And the consumer only sees movie prices which have remained identical between the two formats.

more for the drives

Sony just announced a $200 PC BD-ROM. How much are HD-DVD ROM's again? Scale shows advantage once again.

and it natively supports region locking and other consumer nightmares.

Most titles do not use the region controls, and there are fewer regions than DVD had - which means greater, not lesser, consumer acceptance of the format on region bounds.

Plus, the storage capacity of HD-DVD (the other thing commonly touted as it's inferiority) is more than plenty for 1K HD content,

Not if you also want lossless audio, or have a longer movie with a lot of detail. Then you have to make sacrifices. You've also forgotten that this is the year some systems will start to support Deep Color in HDMI 1.3, and we'll start to see movies support that as well. A greater bit-depth for color requires more space.

You go pick which is more important to you.

As an engineer it has always seemed pretty obvious to me.

And when does that take off

[SuperKendall]

A war fought over cable lines is like Hannibal crossing the alps with elephants. What horrible ground to hold in a pulverizing HD media war.

I mean, another Microsoft cable box attempt? Are they going to give everyone a Surface table for a penny?

War would have ended if HD-DVD shipped in Elite

[SuperKendall]

Toshiba should have demanded that the 360 carry an HD-DVD drive standard.

That move would have won the format war outright.

A little less clear, but I feel just as certain victory would have Microsoft include HD-DVD with the Elite model. That would have been around the time of the Paramount switch, and the momentum of those two moves would have fed off each other to spook people away from Blu-Ray and probably get either Fox or Disney to go neutral in teh same way the Warner move has spooked people off HD-DVD and probably is forcing retailers and consumers to support Blu-Ray exclusively very soon.. It's not like you can really argue at that point it would have made the 360 cost prohibitive since it would only be on the top-line model anyway.

Just as Sony won the format war through costly initial action, so Microsoft helped destroy HD-DVD through penny-pinching inaction. I guess Toshiba should have tried to wire the HD-DVD contract with the Three Laws of HD-DVD media.

Re:War would have ended if HD-DVD shipped in Elite

[MarcoAtWork]

A little less clear, but I feel just as certain victory would have Microsoft include HD-DVD with the Elite model.

why would microsoft care? They came out with a cheaper console, have a lot more market share (and better games) for now, and since hd-dvd has lost I bet they will come out with a blue-ray add-on for the xbox before the end of the year. Sony bet everything on blue-ray, MS just stood on the sidelines and focused on the console and games, without caring too much about the blue-ray/hd-dvd angle, knowing that no matter who won they could come out with an external player without risking being on the losing side.

The new HD-DVD meme. Not easy nor cheap.

[SuperKendall]

Both formats are irrelevant, its easier and cheaper to just download HD content.

Pay attention everyone, this is the new meme that all the cool HD kids are spreading now in some kind of bizarre "Scorched Earth" strategy meant to destroy both formats, after all Sony must die right?

Well lets think about both your arguments:

1) Easier. To play HD content from a disc I just place a disc in a player, and it's playing. To get HD content online I have to decide to buy it from somewhere (and have an internet connection to my system at the TV). Then I have to wait for it to buffer enough to start watching. And then I have to watch a greatly compressed video/audio experience that makes buying a decent HD set a waste. Or I can go for a torrent, and spend days downloading a full quality mvoie only risking many thousands of dollars in fines if a torrent that I must leave up for days on end is discovered. If I downloaded the content legally and want to share it with a friend I can't do that. If I downloaded it legally I load them a hard drive (!). If I have physical media, I just loan them a disc (unless - sweet irony! I have a BD burner and they have a BD-ROM, in which case I can burn a disc).

How was that easier?

2) Cheaper. Yes free is certainly cheap, though of dubious ethical value. Online downloads? Cheap indeed but either they are (a) very cheap and the media expires shortly, or (b) actually rather expensive for the same non-portable highly compressed content I mentioned before. And in the meantime I can rent Blu-Ray discs from Netflix more cheaply than any online service, and probably get them faster than a torrent and cheaper than legal online HD media.

Re:blueray hd dvd?

[Divebus]

correct me if i'm wrong but isn't blue ray (i refuse to go with the stupid spelling fad)...

OK, I'll correct you. It's actually spelled Blu-ray and it's not a fad. Stupid yes, but not a fad.

Re:blueray hd dvd?

[DrEldarion]

That makes HD-DVDs as scratchable as regular DVDs (read: very).

From what I hear, that coating on Blu-ray is very good.

Unskippable crap...

[flyingfsck]

You are forgetting something: If you put a disc in a player, then you have to watch the advertisements, warnings and other crap that you cannot skip or fast forward through. If you download the movie, that crap is either already cut out, or you can skip it very easily on Linux.

Re:Unskippable crap...

[Nursie]

When I torrent a movie, I often get some bullshit Trojan,

You're doing something SERIOUSLY wrong then. Movies don't usually come in executable format, you know.

Unlikely

[Namarrgon]

Toshiba should have demanded that the 360 carry an HD-DVD drive standard.

That move would have won the format war outright.

Doubtful. But it would certainly have subjected the 360 to the same cost and time overruns that the PS3 suffered from.

No-one would argue that much of the 360's current success is due to it launching a year earlier with a cheaper price. Making the HD disc player optional might (in the long run) make it harder for devs to squeeze large games in, but definitely kept the console cheaper and simpler for the so-crucial first couple of years of its life.

As for putting it in the Elite, its sales weren't large enough to make much difference to Toshiba, and increasing the cost would not have helped that. Armchair analysts can call it "penny pinching", but in the world of business, the user always pays in the end. Sony's decision to sacrifice their Playstation brand on the altar of Blu-Ray success has cost them dearly, at least in the short term.

Re:Unlikely

[tbannist]

I think the point was that blue lasers need for both HD-DVD and BluRay drives were hard to get when the PS3 launched, they would have been impossible to supply the number needed to launch the 360 a year earlier with an HD-DVD drive built in. Thus the 360 wouldn't have had a big head start and wouldn't have as many games. If MS had included the HD-DVD drive they'd probably be in last place, instead of second place.

Much of their success is directly attributable to launching early and getting some early bandwagoners on board.

Re:Most Blu-Ray discs region free

[Pofy]

>Most non time-crucial movies (read: movies not yet released
>in the UK) are region free on Blu-Ray as well.

Yes, now they are, when they are "fighting" versus HD DVD. But who knows about the future and when there is only Blu-ray?

>It's more widely understood by studios that region coding is
>not as good for sales, they only use it for regional control now.

So how come most DVD still have region coding?

Toshiba should avenge the HD-DVD by reinventing it

[anandsr]

The only way out for HD-DVD is to concede defeat and open the specification in ways that Hollywood cannot handle. By removing the DRM, and removing any RAND licensing. Allowing anybody to produce HD-DVD devices and disks without obtaining license. Only act as a certification agency.

This will allow cheap HD-DVD devices and disks to be made in China and dumped into the US market. These will be used by people wanting to rip, burn, and trade the BlueRay DVDs available in the market. That would be sweet revenge ;-).

There is a huge market potential for HD-DVD in backups.

-anandsr

open it up

[nguy]

Maybe Toshiba should consider opening up the format completely: no royalties at all for implementing any part of HD DVD, high quality open source implementations under Apache 2, etc.

Of course, it looks to me like disks are pretty much dead anyway; just like there won't be a successor format for the CD, there may not be a successor format to the DVD either.

Welcome to the Betamax theory of CE

[symbolset]

Basically all media come in two formats: A cheap and popular version and a marginally technically better but far more expensive version that hangs on but never holds sway. The better more expensive version always takes the lead early on because early adopters are willing to pay premium prices for quality products. Then the R&D giant behind it leverages the popularity to ramp the licensing cost at just the wrong inflection of the demand curve, driving consumers to the adequate and cheap version until you can't find content in the high quality version any more and Betamax version buyers lose all their investment in quality equipment and content.

It's easy know which version is which because Sony is almost always behind the expensive one.

SCSI, and all the iSAS evolved variants, are examples of the Betamax of hard drives. Notice you can't get one in decent capacity for any price these days?

It's like watching all the Friday the 13th sequels actually. Each time it looks like it's going to be a new movie, and then it's the same movie all over again.

Excellent news

[Weaselmancer]

As soon as there is a definitive loser in the hi-def wars, the loser will drop their prices to next-to-zero to spite the winner. And either disc would make an excellent data storage medium if the price was right.

Black Knight, anyone?

[SanityInAnarchy]

It's just a flesh wound!

good start

[callmetheraven]

Aren't I allowed to hate *both* MS and Sony? Yep! Hate em both! I do! IMHO both formats are DRM-crippled. I say it's "one down, one to go!"

Re:The new HD-DVD meme. Not easy nor cheap.

[peas_n_carrots]

"1) Easier. To play HD content from a disc I just place a disc in a player, and it's playing. To get HD content online I have to decide to buy it from somewhere (and have an internet connection to my system at the TV). Then I have to wait for it to buffer enough to start watching." blah blah ad nauseum

Where exactly does this magical disc appear from? Last I checked, you have to go out and buy or rent one, which means driving out to the store, hoping that they have the particular title you want (in stock or at all). Oh you use Netflix? Let's see, that's 4+ days waiting for the disc to arrive in the mail. A minute of buffering doesn't sound so bad after all.

Broadband in the US is way behind. As it stands now, the streaming video experience isn't ideal. It will improve, as will just about every other technology.

As an HD-DVD developer...

[SanityInAnarchy]

isn't blue ray (i refuse to go with the stupid spelling fad) better on a technical level anyway?

Not really. I thought so too, but in practice, HD-DVD wins. (And I'm not just saying this because of my job; for all I know, our company will be forced into Blu-Ray, or something completely different.)

What Blu-Ray has going for it (other than this latest blow) is capacity and bandwidth, and a ton of empty promises about features which are mostly not implemented. And capacity, at least, was rumored to be about killed by some triple-layer HD-DVD format, which would beat dual-layer Blu-Ray by a gig.

What HD-DVD has (had?) is price and features. Since people are pronouncing the format dead, I think I'm entitled to one last rant -- I am an HD-DVD developer.

So here's how it breaks down: Blu-Ray requires entirely new equipment to press. HD-DVD can modify existing DVD equipment. There have also been (barely) sub-$100 HD-DVD players at some point -- that's yet to happen for Blu-Ray, cheapest I've seen is a $200 drive (not a standalone player).

The price of the discs is mostly irrelevant, as now is really not the time to be buying discs to keep. But I would expect them to be cheaper, and there was also the strange run of dual-format (HD-DVD and standard DVD) discs -- literally two-sided, side A for HD, side B for DVD.

Now, as to the actual technologies... Note that I have not actually seen a Blu-Ray disc play, so all of this is from what I've heard my co-workers say, and I don't remember it incredibly well. But the HD-DVD information should be dead accurate.

To start with, Blu-Ray requires AACS, and supports region coding and something called "BD-Mark". Meanwhile, HD-DVD has optional AACS (though some features are inaccessible to unencrypted discs), and does not support region coding. So even if you hate Microsoft, as a geek, you really want HD-DVD to win, for that reason.

It also supports standard dual-layer DVDs as a medium. Same HD content, good codecs (VC1, h.264, etc), scripting, but if it fits in 9 gigs, you can burn it to a cheaper disc. I don't know if it actually supports single-layer DVDs (though I imagine it does), or CDs (though I doubt it). So, low-capacity all the way up to the proposed triple-layer makes it more flexible than Blu-Ray in terms of disc format.

Blu-Ray is Java. HD-DVD is JavaScript. Having used both languages, I'm amazed anyone would argue for Java, but people do. And it almost seemed logical -- I expected the Java to be faster, but it's not.

Let that sink in a moment. In the actual, real-world use, any Blu-Ray player other than the PS3 is slow as hell with simple menu animations. By "slow as hell", I mean you will actually see it redrawing each frame in blocks, for a tiny menu taking up maybe an eighth of the screen. HD-DVD, on the other hand... Well, I can make it slow, but not that slow. Half-second animations that take up half the screen are, at worst, a little jerky, but never do you see it redrawing in chunks like that.

Now, just guessing, but I suspect that Blu-Ray hands over more control to the Java itself -- that is, it is actual Java code doing those animations. Not so with HD-DVD -- I just tell it to change some property (x, y, width, height, opacity, etc) by some amount over some duration, and let the player handle the rest -- probably with native code, probably a good chunk of it in video hardware.

And, from what I've heard through the grapevine, Warner's actual tech people agree with me -- they'd much rather work with HD-DVD and with JavaScript. So this smells like an executive decision, made for strategic reasons, not technical ones, and certainly not with the consumer in mind.

HD-DVD also has a much stronger base of what's required. Even in those sub-$100 players, you get:

• An ethernet port
• 128 megs of flash
• Picture-in-picture support (muxed into the main video, or downloaded)
• Dynamic rescaling of video (opening "chapter

More than that...

[SanityInAnarchy]

HD-DVD has optional AACS encryption. You can burn an unencrypted HD-DVD, even on a dual-layer standard 9 gig DVD, and it will work. I think it won't let you access network or storage, which makes it not as useful or cool, but technically, the crypto is optional.

HD-DVD is also region-free. There is no option whatsoever for region coding. If you really wanted to, you could release a multi-region, encrypted HD-DVD which adapted based on the default language of the player, or even a GeoIP lookup if they have it plugged in to the Internet.

Blu-ray has mandatory AACS encryption, and the optional BD+, and as far as I know, absolutely no format cheaper than a single-layer Blu-Ray disc (25 gigs). So much for home recording.

Oh, and there are a large number of technical advantages to HD-DVD -- for one, there's a triple-layer disc coming, so it now beats Blu-Ray on capacity. But it's obvious that Warner doesn't care about the technical issues.

Re:blueray hd dvd?

[squiggleslash]

Nope, Blu-ray has more capacity per layer, but the capabilities are poorer from a consumer point of view.

Ironically, Blu-ray and HD-DVD had just caught up in terms of maximum capacity per disc - in the middle of November, HD-DVD adopted a system that increased the maximum capacity of an HD-DVD disc to match Blu-ray's (51G HD-DVD compared to 50G Blu-ray, using three layers and two layers respectively), but to date no discs have been made (well, it's been a month and a half) and no players have been updated to support the three layer format.

HD DVD discs do not need DRM, and do have to support "managed copy" meaning consumers can assume that if they buy an HD-DVD movie, they'll be allowed to (using licensed software) transfer copies to their computer or to a movie jukebox or something similar. HD DVD also has a slightly better sound codec selection, specifically making player support for the lossless Dolby TrueHD format compulsory, allowing studios to master HD DVDs with sound in that format. Not that that's a big thing, I just thought I'd mention it.

With the exception of the above issue of the new three layer discs, the HD-DVD format is more or less finalized, whereas Blu-ray is still in a state of flux. Blu-ray also has some issues, from a consumer point of view, such as the BD+ access control system, which meant some discs last year wouldn't play on some players without firmware updates, and region encoding.

The war might be over, but the battles will go on.

[Pathway]

Well, the fact is, Warner Bros. has decided to make the choice for Blu Ray. So, does this mean that the Format War is over?

Probably.

With nearly everybody exclusively Blu Ray now, I doubt if HD-DVD Can recover from this blow. Personally, I hadn't made a HD Disc Player purchase yet. I haven't yet seen picture quality above and beyond what my DVD player can produce to warrant the upgrade. Maybe if I got a bigger TV, I might see a difference.

I was kind of hoping that HD-DVD would continue to win support and edge out Blu Ray for dominance. HD-DVD seemed up to the task, looked cheaper for the players, and seemed stable. Blu Ray, on the other hand, I've heard nasty things about, like that not all the players will play all Blu Ray discs. Also, I've heard that there is a Blu Ray 2.0 which is in the works, and some of the older 1.x discs may have problems... And the HD-DVD players are cheap, too.

I read somewhere that WB chose Blu Ray because of a recent surge in it's popularity, especialy in December... Uh, can we say Cristmas? Take that number and subtract the number of Playstation 3s sold in the same month. Trust me, Mom and Dad bought that PS3 for Timmy to play games, not to watch Blu Ray DVDs. *sigh*

Oh well. If HD is Dead, a whole bunch of HD-Players are going to be thrown away this year.

--Pathway

Re:Slashdot admins must have all bought BR

[IrquiM]

there's a difference between obsolete and "not being able to run all the extra materials"

Re:Toshiba should avenge the HD-DVD by reinventing

[benzapp]

In your dreams.

If they remove DRM, not a single Hollywood studio will release on the format. It's that simple.

Not just Sony!

[closer2it]

This is *NOT* just a Sony Corporation technology! It's an Association of company's

From wikipedia:

The current 18 board members (as of December 2007) are:
* Apple Inc.
* Dell
* Hewlett Packard
* Hitachi
* LG Electronics
* Mitsubishi Electric
* Panasonic (Matsushita Electric)
* Pioneer Corporation
* Royal Philips Electronics
* Samsung Electronics
* Sharp Corporation
* Sony Corporation
* Sun Microsystems
* TDK Corporation
* Thomson
* Twentieth Century Fox
* Walt Disney Motion Pictures Group / Buena Vista Home Entertainment
* Warner Home Video Inc. (Exclusively as of January 4 2008)

Demographics

[DeanFox]

I think this format war belongs to the 35+ demographic. I was talking with a couple tech savy neighbourhood kids to get a feel for where they were at. Their response? "You buy that shit? Why don't you just download it, that's what we do." They're bypassing this entire nightmare.

$1000 players, $500 HDCP strippers, format "A" vs. format "B", cables, plugs... ad nausium. The generation that matters in the next 10 years are laughing at us 'old' people. They could care less about physical media when on-line on-demand is available.

The warranties haven't even expired on some of these HD-DVD boxes people spent a lot of money on and the format has already been declared dead. My age group is the last generation used to "owning" physical media. For us the format matters. Remove the media as in download on demand, whatever the source, and none of this matters.

I'll wait for several reasons. Least of which, is that either format is moot as is DRM so long as the direction is toward downloading. Cable has on demand viewing, Netflix has started the same thing. I don't think the next 5-10 years is going to be about physical media. Corporations are still battling over a format when it's replacement is available and in use. Things are moving quicker then they have in the past. I declare both formats dead or at least very temporary.

-[d]-

DRM's holy grail

[sm62704]

"I'm not dead!"

"What?"

""Nothing -- here's your nine pence."

"I'm not dead!"

"Here -- he says he's not dead!"

"Yes, he is."

"I'm not!"

"He isn't."

"Well, he will be soon, he's very ill."

"I'm getting better!"

"No, you're not -- you'll be stone dead in a moment."

"h, I can't take him like that -- it's against regulations."

"I don't want to go in the cart!"

"Oh, don't be such a baby."

"I can't take him..."

"I feel fine!"

"Oh, do us a favor..."

"I can't."

"Well, can you hang around a couple of minutes? He won't be long."

"Naaah, I got to go on to SCO's -- they've lost nine today."

"Well, when is your next round?"

"Thursday."

"I think I'll go for a walk."

"You're not fooling anyone y'know. Look, isn't there something you can do?"

"I feel happy... I feel happy.

[whap]"

"Ah, thanks very much."

"Not at all. See you on Thursday."

"Right."

They should choose their friends well

[Ilgaz]

There are some 10-15 million rabid Sony hating Xbox/Microsoft fans in the US. They will support any 'not Sony format' with a fanatical commitment that is easily mistaken for broad consumer support.

Toshiba fell victim to believing HD-DVD was going to ever be supported by anyone beyond that niche demographic. And it cost hundreds of millions in their losing battle against BluRay. HD DVD could be a serious competitor if there wasn't MS and their OS fascist media division wasn't involved. They showed signs of "Windows only" from the start, they could sit and write HD DVD.Framework via XCode to support OS X, they could release a not cheap but working fine Quicktime export plugin for VC-1, they could make Roxio (Adaptec) support HD-DVD recorders on their OS X consumer products, they could help Linux guys sort out basic data recording, they could plug into OS X professional tools like Final Cut suite, AVID suite to support HD-DVD output.

What did they do? All the media industry, using Sony/Apple devices daily saw Windows Vista laptops made by Toshiba supporting HD-DVD. Imagine you are a high end Hollywood technical person using Mac OS X and you don't even have basic data recording capability if you use your Mac. You will choose HD-DVD while you are happily backing up those DV files to BluRay?

For a long time, if you have good money to spare, you can buy a Firewire Blu-Ray recorder from Lacie, install Toast 8 (comes free) and even use BluRay RW on OS X. HD-DVD was basically non existent on anything except Windows.

I really don't get this "Sony hate" anyway. It uses H264, has Java which is totally open now, they sponsored TerraSoft solutions to ship a PS/3 Linux, they use industry standard frameworks like OpenGL on Sony PS3... Just because we hate Sony, we should support MS'es best friend Toshiba and XBox 360 introduced format?

Toshiba should have chosen their friends well. On media industry, you can't dare to mess BOTH Sony and Apple and get successful. You can't get adopted when you are friend of a company which sees everything except Windows doing that "multimedia thing" as a loss. We speak about a company who hated the fact that Linux/FreeBSD/OS X people can happily watch Youtube via Flash technology and decided to kill (!) it with SilverLight.

With current prices, you are shipping $30-$40 , high end 1080P content having audiophile like features, your target demographic is NOT XBox 360 gamers. They will happily download those 720p highly compressed x264 torrents, they will pay $30-$40 for a game they play. Sony made clever choice while they added everything to make PS3 a high end home multimedia/communication central. There are many people who has Ps3 and uses it just like a very high end personal entertainment device rather than gaming. Same for PSP too. I got friends having PSP but only using it as a handheld multimedia device.

Blu-ray won the battle but lost the war

[Anita Coney]

Let's assume that Sony won the DVD-A/SACD battle. After it was over, no consumer gave a rat's ass. Thus the HD audio war was fought for nothing.

I'll go out on a limb here, DVD sales are in the dumps for a reason. The vast majority of people don't watch movies over and over again. Thus, they do not see any value in buying DVDs. If people won't buy cheap DVDs they certainly not going to go out and buy expensive Blu-ray movies, especially when you consider the playback machine costs $400 (USD)!

The future of movies will be streamed. You can call it IPTV or movies on demand, or whatever. But the future of physical media is dead. CDs are dead. DVDs are dying. Blu-ray was dead before the battle even started.

Dead collector

[Thelasko]

Dead Collector: Bring out yer dead! [Hits gong]
Public: Here's one.
Dead Collector: Ninepence.
HD-DVD: I'm not dead!
Dead Collector: What?
Public: Nothing. Here's your ninepence.
HD-DVD: I'm not dead!
Dead Collector: 'Ere, he says he's not dead.
Public: Yes he is.
Public Well, he will be soon, he's very ill.
HD-DVD: I'm getting better!
Public: No you're not, you'll be stone dead in a moment.
Dead Collector: Well, I can't take him like that. It's against regulations.
HD-DVD: I don't want to go on the cart!
Public: Oh, don't be such a baby.
Dead Collector: I can't take him.
HD-DVD: I feel fine!
Public: Well, can't you wait around a couple of minutes, he won't be long.
Dead Collector: No, I promised the Robinsons, they've lost nine today.
Public: Well, when's your next round?
Dead Collector: Thursday.
HD-DVD: I think I'll go for a walk.
Large Man: You're not fooling anyone, you know. Isn't there anything you could do?
HD-DVD: I feel happy. I feel happy.
[The Dead Collector glances up and down the street furtively, then silences the HD-DVD with a whack of his club]
Public: Ah, thanks very much.
Dead Collector: Not at all. See you on Thursday.

Stop the Moderating Madness! Mod Parent Down

[mpapet]

You've also forgotten that this is the year some systems will start to support Deep Color in HDMI 1.3, and we'll start to see movies support that as well

Stop the color madness now. And I mean Right Now. In order to get you to consume DRM equipment, they are selling you a convenient fiction called "Deep Color." HDMI is a Trojan Horse and Deep Color is an absurd lie used to get DRM through the consumers front door.

This is one takes too long to explain and requires some ****actual**** technical knowledge of rendering color digitally. I don't mean color pablum on some well-regarded hdtv forum, because Teco's/Samsung/etc LCD panel engineers aren't hanging around dispelling the marketing myths.

Deep Color is designed to fool everyone, including the geeks because so few people know about rendering digital color. In summary, let's assume the player device can actually send images in some kind of fantastical super-wide-gamut to the display. (which it can't and won't. Ever. ) You still have a display utterly incapable of rendering all of those colors!!

Please recall the display beauty of the 32-bit CRT. The display industry won't ever forget the business disaster that was and that's why you'll never see one again.

Digital output is fully capable of rendering all of the color that a display can render and it is Free from DRM. Which is why it should be the output of choice in any Freedom-loving home in the world. Except it's status as being free from DRM makes it public enemy #1.

Stories like this are extremely harmful. What most of you fail to recognize is you are discussing the noose the media conglomerates will use to overcharge you for their product, limit competition, and ultimately hang you.

Today's lesson: HDMI is how consumers all over the world will submit to total media control.

Re:No technical reason for this.

[SanityInAnarchy]

But there was a lot of setup you had to do to make that happen, some of it involving a network connection to the TV that not a lot of people have.

That is true. But I think there's a valid question of whether it's easy once you do have such a device. And I think that there's a market for cheap set-top boxes there.

You've lost the plot man. I'm talking HD media which even for TV is not going to fit in that 4 GB DVD. And transferring that volume of data is slow for just about anyone in the US right now, and for many many years to come.

Well, let's suppose, for a moment, that it your movie requires the full size of, say, HD-DVD. 30 gigs means on it would take eight 4-gig DVDs, right?

Which means at that quality, it would fit about one episode of Sanctuary.

That's all assuming you do no transcoding. I'd think if you're lending it to your friend, you could afford to do that. After all, if they end up liking it a lot, they can just get it themselves, right?

Two, you 100MBit connection is throttled somewhere around the ISP.

Define "throttled". If you mean the bottleneck due to upstream, well, they are starting to build that, too. They're planning to deliver IPTV over it, so I assume they realize the kind of infrastructure they need.

No question. My question is how soon will media companies get that right? Seems like a long wait to me. It seems likley to take many years.

I'm willing to wait, and in the mean time, I'm willing to support the concept by buying Sanctuary episodes, and any similarly good production I can get in DRM-free, downloadable form.

I agree, for some movies - but that's not a model that can really replace ownership for people, not anytime soon.

Not completely, but I do argue that for most people, most of the time, rentals make more sense.

I've bought DVD's directly from small companies as well, and plan to continue doing so with Blu-Ray.

Except for, you know, the licensing fees to Sony, AACS, and Microsoft. Buying online means, at worst, a licensing fee from MS or Apple for the codec, but arguably, most of it will go to bandwidth.

Re:consumers win

[SanityInAnarchy]

Um, you do know that current HDDVD players can't read that disk and won't be able to even with a firmware upgrade.

Actually, from what I've heard, it will require at most a firmware upgrade. But we don't know that yet.

Bluray on the other hand has 100GB (quad layer) discs which should be compatible with most current players albeit requiring a firmware update.

I don't think we know that, either.

Region coding allows a studio to release the movie on disc in one region while it's still in theaters in another.

I do not believe you're actually defending this.

So what if one region still has it in theaters?

Without it, they usually wait for it to complete its run in theaters

Well, yeah, because they're morons. Doesn't make region coding right or desirable.

But only the players are cheap, movie prices are the same.

So what?

I'm sure I'm not alone in renting most movies anyway.

the persistent storage is required by Profile 1.1 which is now the standard profile. All players which are now being manufactured (new models) must have 256MB of persistent storage.

So early adopters get screwed.

The scripting, I'm assuming you mean HDi, can't really be argued since Bluray went BD-J.

Which, again, was not required.

Internet connection is in Profile 2.0 (along with 1GB persistent storage) and will most likely become the standard profile in about a year.

Which means people will have to code for the lowest common denominator, or risk not working on some players, pissing the early adopters off again -- except "early adopters" now includes everyone rushing out to buy them now, assuming the format war is over.

In other words: They are playing catch-up, technologically.

It's like the Xbox 360 -- developers can't assume you have a hard drive, because some models come without one. Therefore, pretty much all games are forced into supporting running without a hard drive, holding them back.

PS3 games can assume a Blu-Ray disc, so 50 gigs of data, and a hard drive, so 20-60 gigs of storage. Xbox 360 games get a 9 gig DVD, and that's it.

Personally I could care less about internet connectivity but I guess some people like that...

There are actually some pretty exciting things we could do with Internet connectivity -- things we were doing on HD-DVD, but that's probably not happening now.