Little Demand Yet For Silverlight Developers
ericatcw writes "At its Mix08 Web development conference, Microsoft said that its Silverlight rich Internet application platform is downloaded and installed an average of 1.5 million times every day; Microsoft has a goal of 200 million installs by midyear. But Silverlight is at the beginning of a long slog towards gaining traction. Computerworld did a quick analysis of job listings at nine popular career sites and found that an average of 41 times more ads mentioned Adobe's Flash than mentioned Silverlight. As expected only 6 months after Silverlight's introduction, the number of programming books carried on Amazon.com was also heavily skewed in favor of Flash."
Why should I, as a Flash developer / animator, move to a less stable, less well-known, less-compatible platform from one that is stable, has many developers, is cross-platform (mostly), and can do, if I'm reading right, everything the other claims to be able to do already?
Not that I am a Flash developer (at least, I haven't been for a while), it's just a hypothetical.
I think the answer for Microsoft is "because we need you to help us create another hook to keep people on Windows." Linux beta, eh? I'll believe it when I see it.
It's better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.
- E. Debs
NewsFlash!! Brand new technology has less presence in market compared to entrenched, established technology!
Holy Cow! Stop the presses! This is big news!
Freakin' Troll of a story if I've ever seen one.
Here, let me fix that for you
Little Demand Yet For Silverlight
There! that's better.
"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it." - K
Like me, many of these 1.5 million are people who where breifly confused into thinking they needed silverlight in order to access the microsoft site. I took advantage of their dreamspark initiative, and encountered a 'you need to install silverlight' message. Turns out this was for a small silverlight animation, nothing to do with the main content.
Since then I've not been back. Nor would I intentionally seek to develop for that platform. Why bother? There's javascript and flash already.
Of course there isn't much demand yet: it's still a beta technology! Moreover, the technical evangelists don't seem to be in agreement if Silverlight is toolkit for building media applications to compete with Flash/YouTube or if this is a toolset for building line-of-business applications (ala Java Applets, only without the hideous UI and slow performance). I personally believe that Silverlight will only be a big thing if it is positioned as something for building line-of-business apps and marketed as the perfect hybrid between the power of a desktop app with the convenience of install/update of a web app.
I think they are generally looking in the wrong places. I never really found CareerBuilder or Monster to be all that useful when job hunting.
Check out ericatcw's previous Slashdot stories:
"Google Apps Slow to Replace Competition"
"Firefox Struggling to Compete as Corporate Browser"
Hell of a coincidence that they're all pro-Microsoft.
It's better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.
- E. Debs
..there seems to be little demand for the programming language I invented the other day while I had the flu, and a frightening lack of instructional books on Amazon for it. That's a real shame, because after some chicken soup and a good night's sleep I no longer remember how the goddamned thing works, and was really looking forward to cookbooking it.
Slashdot Burying Stories About Slashdot Media Owned
It also doesn't help that Silverlight is BARELY just making it onto peoples machines and they are already releasing betas of Silverlight 2.0
You can't expect people to jump onboard if your product is a moving target. No one wants to be left in the dust.
"When life gives you lemons, don't make lemonade. Make life take the lemons back!" -- Cave Johnson
How is that even possible? Only geeks, I would think, know about it. Not everyone who knows about it wants it. And Not everybody who wants it has Windows to even be able to run it. How can that subset maintain 1.5 x 10^6 a day??
"Thanks for all the money you paid to us. We've used it to buy off ISO among other things" -Microsoft
Silverlight and flash are two evil things on the web.
Time after time, I download the software, and run the installer, only to have NOTHING HAPPEN.
Either that, or the plugin does not install into all my browsers, just the dominant one for that OS - it installs into IE, and Safari, but not Firefox on either platform.
What good is this type of thing anyway? Sure it provides a framework for fewer roundtrips to the server, but if it doesn't work, you're right back where you started.
Frustrating.
I suspect many developers have been waiting for 2.0 as the "real" Silverlight. It feels to me like 1.0 was mostly a stake in the ground to make it clear that MS is trying for the same market as Flex etc - but it wasn't enough to build proper applications.
2.0 should (if it lives up to hype/expectations) be much more useful.
Given that beta 1 has only just been released, it's not at all surprising that there isn't a lot of demand for developers in the marketplace yet, nor books available.
Stupid choice of metrics. There are more Windows 3.11 books at my local library than there are Vista books. So there must be more demand for Windows 3.11.
How many books were on the shelf six months after Flash was released? How about job postings? Compare those numbers with Silverlight if you must use a stupid metric like this.
Troll article.
I'm still a bit concerned about the supposed cross-platform-ness. Is the Javascript file Silverlight.js still used to initialize the Silverlight object in Silverlight 2? If that is the case it will never be truly cross-platform.
If you aren't running one of the platforms supported by Microsoft (Windows (IE, Firefox) and Mac OS X (Firefox, Safari)) you will get redirected to http://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkID=92800 (or similar), regardless if you have a Silverlight compatible plugin installed. Using the Silverlight.js file is the defacto standard way of initializing Silverlight, at least in previous releases.
It will be the responsibility to each web-developer to update their copy of Silverlight.js in order to get Silverlight to run on other platforms than the ones directly supported by Microsoft. This will never happen, except perhaps for a small portion that are Moonlight enthusiasts.
Of those millions, how many are like me and have downloaded and installed Silverlight, but can not make it work? When I browse to a Silverlight page, it just says that I need to install Silverlight. So I uninstall it, redownload, and reinstall. Nothing changed. I believe this is in IE and Firefox.
However, sadly, there are lots .net jobs.
Microsoft's clone of Java.
So maybe in a couple years there will be demand for Microsoft's clone of Flash.
kdawson. What a surprise!
It's time to realise that Abble's products are the biggest abomination these days. Just say NO to the dumb iAbble way!!
I'm not preaching that Silverlight holds the answers, or anything remotely like that. But in MANY people's opinions, Flash technology has really "dropped the ball" when it comes to keeping up with the times.
When I first remembered it gaining in popularity, people were simply fascinated by the new-found ability to make web sites look more sophisticated and polished. You could do photo-realistic animations with your menus, have 3D fonts moving about the screen without having to render them ahead of time, trying to scale/size them for the page you were going to paste them in, etc.
In the present, most people take a "been there, seen that" attitude towards Flash-heavy web pages. They look for the "skip" button as soon as one opens up, because they know the real "content" isn't going to be found in waiting for the bar graph to finish loading to 100% completion, only to hear some techno music playing behind a big video with the corporate logo spinning around. The places where I see Flash used today tend to be interactive games, such as the children's games developed for sites like pbskids.org or nickjr.com.
In this arena, Flash may still be "king" - but it sure isn't giving a stable experience! I have a 5 year old, so I know! She loves playing the mini-games on these web sites, but I'm constantly hearing, "Dad!! Help! It stopped working!", only to go over to the PC and find it frozen up, or the arrow keys unresponsive in the game. Usually, I have to refresh the whole thing, losing her position in the game. Sometimes, the whole browser has to be closed and restarted.
It's even worse if you're not using the "preferred platform" of a Windows box running Internet Explorer 7.
Adobe long ago dropped support for their Flash player for classic MacOS, for example. Sure, it's an "outdated" platform, but an awful lot of old iMac G3's and G4's are still out there being used as "kid's computers", so this is a place where a current Flash player would still get a lot of use! They still have no Flash player developed for Apple's iPhone either, and that's an example of a NEW device they should have been on top of from the start.
They're certainly making a great case for themselves that somebody ELSE needs to come along with a competing product!
Must be all the desperate people taking Vista quiz to win a polo shirt...
http://www.microsoft.com/australia/vistafacts/fact.aspx
Ya I had to look it up.
Oh, that's not the web.
Microsoft is not the web.
Why would I down load Silverlight to see some MS page.
Anyway, I am Betting it will not work on my KDE desktop.
M$ tends to expect you to run there OS...
So its not the interoperable thus is not the web.
MS get a life.
Here at SD West this week there have been a handful of talks about Silverlight, but nothing about Flash. I guess that's because Silverlight is new and everyone already knows how to do Flash.
what else would you expect 6 mos after release?
next you'll be telling me that almost 3 mos after winter solstice the days are still getting longer but still not as long as they will be when summer solstice occurs...
why does this crap make it on slashdot? Ericatw should be banned from submitting posts after yet another crappost.
Why anyone would expect silverlight to work well with anything but the "preferred platform" of a Windows box running Internet Explorer is beyond me. No, not in the first 2-3 years, but when there is any kind of market saturation. How long before any support for Mac or linux is limited (or any FF plugins for it, for that matter), if not dropped. Granted, I haven't found the fabled linux support at all, but even if it comes, Microsoft has an interest in making it less functional/stable/usable for any non MS platforms, the same would be true of any mac version. Even a community driven version will be broken because MS won't really tell of all the changes to their "new" update/upgrade. You can argue, but MS has already shown a propensity for this behavior in the past. Many, many times.
A technology that requires you to be running Windows (there is a nod towards delivering a Linux runtime at some point) and inside a browser.
In comparison, you have a Adobe's Flash runtime which pretty much permeates the browser 'sphere', the release of AIR which completely discards the browser (which is a hugely significant for business), and Flex which can be considered a mature development environment seeing as they've now hit version 3. Adobe have also committed to not use anything other than Flash 9 for the Flex SDK until at least version 4. So we are talking about a 4 year stable build environment and Flash is always built backwards compatible.
I really can't see why a business would choose Silverlight as a delivery technology. There are too many OSs out there to bet everybody I want to deliver my apps to are running Windows.
I will evaluate Silverlight when I can see it as *cross-platform* and not a *cross-browser* solution. Until that day arrives I'll poke it with a stick to see all the sparkly bits, but I'm not investing my time on a single platform technology. I realise the same could be said for AIR, however they already are in Beta for Linux, and I believe they are testing OS X as well. I don't see any of this type of effort coming out of Microsoft.
Now if Adobe could commit to releasing AIR for PDAs/Mobiles at some point, then I think we may have complete ownage.
Leverage the monopoly and wait til success arrives.
If it does not happen too quickly, start paying for a quicker uptake.
Success using this simple technique has been quite good for Microsoft. Failures are all but guaranteed when they can't find a way to leverage the marketshare of Windows.
This silverlight software is all about the Windows desktop, is their response to Adobes position such that they are also pre-installed on close to 100% of the computer which are pre-installed with Microsoft Windows. Couple that distribution capability with the Adobe Flash/Flex capabilities to tie into backend services for a very rich client experience and Adobe is as much of a threat to Microsoft as Netscape once was.
BTW, Microsoft is out purchasing uptake for Silverlight at this moment. We've already heard about the US Library of Congress deal and there's a few more I can't recall specifically. Oh and with web pages so often relying on a plugin feature like Flash, I think Microsoft figured out that they no long need to keep proprietary HTML extensions in the browser to lock in developers to Windows, they have the above formula and Silverlight. Another nice lockin technology. IMO.
LoB
"Anyone who stands out in the middle of a road looks like roadkill to me." --Linus
Seriously.
"God fights on the side with the best artillery." - Napoleon, Marshal of France - speaking truth to power
OK I confess I don't really pay attention to Flash and I thought that Silverlight was a competitor to Flash. But now there seams to be a legion of competing software development platforms that do things I didn't think people did with Flash. So if Flash is for making things like that "Badger, Badger, Badger, Snake!" Animation (the last thing I remember seeing in Flash). Is Silverlight another animation application? And how are all of these things related to Adobe's Flex and Air?
Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Now I get to hear that dev on the Silverlight team bitch loudly about this all morning long...
Yup. Reminds me of the early web pag days remember, when a 'site' had a 'Entry tunnel' and a 'Exit tunnel'.
And everyone just bookmarked the important 'site' page that had the relavent info?
Same thing, except these days when a site informs me "Flash is Required to View this Site"
I backspace to Google and find a 'Less Stupid' company.
Oh look, theres another BRILLIANT idea for Google....they could mark site 'Flash Only' in the summary, then I could avoid them all together.
They Live, We Sleep
The company that my brother is currently working for, the Fawlty Towers of the software industry, have decided to go with silverlight. I think the CTO read an article about it in a magazine. Not the first change of technology direction, but however. 1) You can't get developers with experience 2) You can't get contractors with experience 3) You can't get good books. 4) You can't get libraries. Remind you of c# when it came out ? The power and money of the Borg may well be enough to make a success of it..... Remember, they can put it on the vast majority of PCs in the world. You still have to download flash. Watch this spa ce.
http://davesboat.blogspot.com/
Had to check JavaFX Script out of curiosity: it does register on the top employment sites, but at an order of magnitude smaller than Silverlight.
org.slashdot.post.SignatureNotFoundException: ewg
Microsoft's not invented here syndrome, flash style.
So, an obscure Microsoft-centric platform isn't getting attention from developers?
Maybe it is because Web developers want to write applications that can be used on a wide variety of hardware and software platforms. Probably because the people who are PAYING said developers want that.
Just a thought.
I'm probably going to get trolled for this, but here goes. As long as there's people using Visual Studio, there will be a demand for Silverlight Apps. I'll have to give credit to Microsoft when it comes to Visual Studio's ability to integrate lots of different technologies in one easy-to-use platform. I hate Microsoft as much as the next person, but my least painful experience with them was using Visual Studio back in school. As soon as they integrate this stuff into Visual Studio (maybe VS 2008 already has this?), people will start using it.
Only reason its downloaded would be the update feature.
members are seeing something, your seeing an ad
http://www.microsoft-watch.com/content/web_services_browser/what_3_million_buys_silverlight.html
Silverlight does not work with Linux, and offers only limited support for Mac. But the US Library of Congress took a $3 bribe from msft to force the US to only use msft products. If you want access to public documents, you have to use microsoft - nothing else will work.
Clearly msft will force this standard on everybody, just like msft will force OOXML on everybody. Once Silverlight is deployed everywhere, developers will start supporting it.
The only thing I see in Silverlight is yet another attempt to create a platform that ties people to Windows. Sure there is currently an OS X port and a Linux port in the works, but how long will the non-Windows implementations be maintained once Silverlight is entrenched throughout the web?
It is no different then Microsoft discontinuing Windows Media Player for OS X. The ports are there now to entice us into accepting the platform. Once every one is dependent on it the ports for alternative platforms will fall behind and receive little maintenance. Once they've fallen sufficiently behind, to the point of incompatibility with the Windows implementation, they will be silently dropped.
Microsoft has a track record of this kind of behavior. I see no reason why Silverlight will be any different then any of their past endeavors. I for one don't trust them with the web. Silverlight will never be installed on any of my computers, period.
Sure, Flash support has been less then perfect on non-Windows platforms, but at least its not developed by a monopolistic operating system vendor with a hidden agenda and a long history of vendor lock-in technologies.
In the mean time, any site that requires Silverlight will soon be receiving hits from me at their competitors site.
I seem to remember that Silverlight was unveiled around the same times that Steve Ballmer ran his mouth off about all of those mystery patents that linux was infringing upon. I really think that this ended up turning off the audience that they were trying to engage.
When you compare that Silver light is a 6 months old beta vs a 10 year old app of course the market will have many many more flash jobs than Silverlight. I'm almost astounded that its as little as 41 I would expect it to be nearer 100. As for browser penetration Silverlight isn't there yet which is why theres not a lot of demand but 1.5 Million a day is a much faster up take than flash.
...Amazon confirms it.
That's pretty much what this article is saying, and yet it got past the same editors who would happily mod a similar comment into oblivion.
I am always leery of anything Microsoft claims.
The "downloads" may in fact be automated requests and the downloader may not even be aware of his download.
MSBPodcast.com The opinions expressed here are my own. If you don't like 'em... Think up your own stuff.
I'm surprised there is any demand yet considering its not even out. The 2.0 beta 1 version was just released a few days ago, which is the version that the developers are really excited about since you can build silverlight apps in managed code. I'm not sure why people are already writing off silverlight.
As a programmer who has done both Java and .NET development I can say that .NET is not a clone of Java. Sure there is some overlap, but they are largely different. I don't think people understand the purpose and strength of .NET/Mono in open source development and in development in general. I keep seeing people talk as if it is an alternative to Java. The design goal of the Java language was to provide a single language that could run on any hardware that had a JVM ("Build once, run anywhere"). The .NET Framework on the other hand is about multiple languages targeting the same platform/runtime. The real power of the platform is that one developer in one part of the world can write libraries and frameworks in one language, and then a developer on the other side of the world can use/extend those libraries/frameworks with another language. That bit is not that visible right now because VB.NET and C#.NET look similar and there is are very few idioms that don't exist in both languages. There are other .NET languages coming down the pipe (F# for example) which look drastically different than C# which will allow developers to solve problems using a drastically different mindset, but the code will still run on the CLR and will be able to be used/extended by other developers using other languages.
To expostulate, if you have a computer with a Pentium 4 or newer CPU, as a Flash developer you can use the high performance Papervision 3D, or if you want max details, there is Away3D, and then the original Sandy. When you say "sufficiently advanced" that's a very subjective term, as some of the websites using these 3D API's are quite advanced compared to other websites built in a different technology, such as Java or Microsoft's Silverlight. If you had said "sufficiently advanced" and compared it to something like 3D done by modern computer games or a video game console such as the Sony Playstation 2, then yes, Flash is still a ways off, but these 3D engines for Flash 9 combined with the JIT compiling that Actionscript 3 uses, is what I would call sufficiently advanced compared to Actionscript 2 (interpreted), for example.
Just because you get modded "insightful" on Slashdot doesn't mean you actually are in real life.
that is flash and silverlight and... SVG! (with JavaScript :)
THere were no Flash books when flash came out for years. I remember using Flash ver 2 and there was no such flash books. Flash is in version what? 9? 10? now.
Sliverlight just came out, I would expect lots of books until version 4 or 5
Is a scripting language fully integrated in the Java environment and JVM. No more clunky 2nd and 3rd languages and glue.
Supposedly this platform will be Flash-interoberable before Silverlight, Android, or iPhone SDK.
I don't mean this as a flame or anything but I think we are going the wrong way about all this anyways. The only reason Flash and now Silverlight exists is to cover the need for a UI experience HTML cannot provide.
IMHO, HTML (XML, and anything else ending with ML) have done their jobs. Now we are at the point adding more features to it is making it overly complicated so we need to say goodbye and create a new simpler markup language that allows for these rich UI features instead of stuffing more tags into HTML.
We need a new standard with new browsers and all. We could use the opportunity to patent it by a non-profit and license for free to anyone who wants to implement it. The only restriction should be not adding any "extensions" to it (to prevent embrace, extend, extinguish tactics).
HTML is obsolete. It's time for a new, simpler and richer markup language.
The parent is essentially correct about Ballmer's offhand remarks about getting Silverlight onto the iPhone. He can't see a business opportunity for the sake of his big(small) sagging dick.
When i read the headline, i was already getting ready to email this to my photography teacher....
Those of us who think they know everything annoy those of us who do.
Not to pick nits, but to say that .NET and Java are incompatible with one another isn't true.
In the old days if you were on the MS platform you could get by with VB6 or C++, SQL Server, ASP and maybe a bit of COM.
.net and it was a case of learning .net, which most of the MS (and quite a few of the Java) programmers could handle.
.net 4.0 betas out in the not too distant, many ppl i chat with (i work as a trainer and developer) are still on .net 2.0 and have never looked at 3.0, never mind 3.5.
Then came
Now there is just too much suff to know if you are going to work on the MS stack:
Dotnet 3.0
Dotnet 3.5
LINQ
Workflow Foundation
Communication Foundation
Presentation Foundation
SilverLight
SQL 2008
VS 2008
Visual Studio Team System
Server 2008
IIS7, WAS
MOSS 2007
Office Development
We will have
Communication Foundation is a great technology, really nice architecture for building web services, trouble is not too many ppl have had time to look at it, and it takes quite a while to get your head around. If ppl had the time to focus on it thay would develop the compitence to build applicaitos with it and drive up the demand.
I've chatted with a lot of people regarding this and pretty much everyone feels the same, there's just not time to learn one technology before the hype shifts to something else. It's pretty much a full time job learning about the latest developments in a specific area.
Offtopic, Inflammatory, Inappropriate, Illegal, or Offensive comments might be moderated up.
You had never heard of Silverlight until it came with a Windows Update. I bet that's how Microsoft is meeting its download quotas.
No portion of this post may be rebroadcast without the express, written consent of Major League Baseball.
I'm not sure what Microsoft is trying to do, both with Silverlight and .NET in general. Although I see some scope for .NET however Silverlight is another story.
.NET and Silverlight are copycat solutions to (maybe) better existing solutions that have already captured the market!
Take a look at HD DVD and Blu-ray, they were trying to capture the biggest market share, once it was apparent that Blu-ray is going to take the lead, HD DVD group gracefully retracted.
Now here is Microsoft, competing products already have the market, why do they even hope to compete. Its not like they have come out with something revolutionary, both
Will it have the bang of ammonium nitrate? (I'm sure only anyone not remembering chemistry and lacking an imagination will mod me troll...)
Previously: "Linux... Toward the Sunrise..." Now: "Linux... Toward the-- No, now, part of Every Sunrise"
Detailed, accurate, sensible answer to the "why switch" argument. Nice to see such a post, even if it reads like a Microsoft brochure, because there seems to be a misunderstanding of what Silverlight is trying to offer. I'd like to provide some counterpoints, because ther are some important reasons why software architects may wish to completely avoid using Silverlight in their applications.
.NET CLR-centric, and thus you must use .NET dialects of all these languages. If you are not a .NET programmer you will undoubtedly still experience SOME learning curve. That curve isn't there for MSFT platform developers, but some people who do Flash and AJAX and Java in web-based applications do indeed work on MACOS X or other UNIX-like environments. To those people it is STILL presenting something new and unfamiliar.
1) Performance features - for example an application in silverlight that pulls HD image formats in small chunks, allowing you to zoom into 100mb images instantly.
A lot can be done to move forward standards-based platforms without completely re-inventing the wheel Optimisations made in new browser releases can make Javascript run significantly faster, and Google has demonstrated the ability in its Maps app and elsewhere that quite adequate performance can even be rung out of currently-released AJAX clients.
2) HD Video - that is VC1 compliant as well. Also the ability to support live and multi-cast streaming of HD Video (great for lowbandwidth servers hosting live events, and still providing an HD video of the event.)
One would expect MSFT to support VC1 as it is their own invention. Kinda makes me wince though, because VC1 is kind of like Silverlight--invented by MSFT becasue they wanted to be in control of something, even though H.264 was already there and some might say is superior to VC1 (IIRC H.264 can produce video of the same quality with a slightly lower bandwidth requirement). In any case, when it takes 10 to 20 MbPS (or more) to stream at HD quality Id have to say it is a stretch to say this HD support could be very useful to "low bandwidth servers". I guess it's a bit of personal bias, but I've never considered VC1 to be a properly conceived standard.
3) Easier - By the nature of how Silverlight is designed it is easier to design for and work with. You are basically just managaging Vista type XAML from WPF. No secret formats, etc.
This is a welcome change from the way MSFT has done things since the introduction of Windows (from the API to DCOM, MSFT has come up with too many head-scratchers to count). My concern is that the ease-of-application is just nice juicy bait for the trap. What encumbrances are there to using "Vista type XAML"? Will MSFT demand a license fee if I use silverlight "commercially"? Are patents involved? Can I license my Silverlight apps using GPL? If I want to use it with Linux (Moonlight) without fear of legal reprecussions am I required to obtain it only through Novell? To me, the technical ease-of-use is somewhat offset by the legal complexities that might surround the use of this platform if you aren't exacly an ally of MSFT.
4) Agnostic programming - Silverlight you not only get a rich vector/bitmap based environment, but it is completely language agnostic and you can use anything from C# to VB to Python.
Semantics here, but Silverlight is NOT "completely" language agnostic. It is
7) Back to Performance - Flash is a dog on non-Windows OSes. So far Silverlight is showing to be semi-equally fast on Windows and OS X, with low memory consumption on both. The same Flash applet running on Windows could use a couple of MB and running on OS X jump to 30MB and peg the CPU. Flash is NOT as crossplatform as developers would like to lead people to believe because of performance issues like this.
I agree with you on this one. The elephant in the room is Moonlight (you do mot mention Linux--a rather glaring omission gi
at some point in the distant future I imagine.
The point is that competition spurs innovation.
Like it or not, Flash is the established de-facto standard for internet video. Works well for me on Linux, by the way.
What does flash's widespread use have to do with its suckage factor? Just because everyone uses it doean't mean it's good. Everyone used to smoke cigarettes--that doesn't mean they were any less harmful for you back then. Flash is to the internet as cigarettes are to the lungs--unhealthy, cancer causing, and laced with harmful toxins.
Flash works like crap on my AMD64 Linux box, by the way.
So you are saying that something which doesn't even exist yet except as a pie-in-the-sky proposal is the "best hope?"
I agree with you on one point--the idea that the HTML5 video element is our "best hope" is indeed laughable, chiefly because HTML5 as a standard is laughable (at least at this point, particularly its backers approach to building a standard). However I have to contend that our "best hope" is indeed something that does not yet exist. Flash is completely hopeless, and there are but the dimmest glimmers of hope in Silverlight, because prospects of it becoming a proper standard are still "pie-in-the-sky"
Sorry, this proposal fails because it requires everyone, everywhere, to change all at once.
Microsoft seems to hope that people will change "everything all at once". Meaningfully adopting Silverlight over existing technologies requires that kind of buy-in for most situations.
If you look at what was added to java 1.5 (generics, for each loops, enums) and the stuff planned for java 1.7 (closures, method references), it's obvious that in many ways java is responding to language enhancements made to c#.
The point is that this competition pushes the status quo, and forces everyone to play catch up. Without it, sun may never have reason to add features like generics.
I'm also looking forward to silverlight, not so much for silverlight itself, but because silverlight is designed to allow you to program your client side code in the same language you write your server side code. Thus, you can share common code between both sides, and talk between server and client with simple RCP. I'm hoping that this will eventually become standard for client side technologies in response to silverlight, even if silverlight isn't picked up en masse.
Yet when MS puts out a competitor to Java, and now Flash, it's "why do we need more than one?"
.NET? Silverlight? Pretty limited choice there. There is a grand total of one implementation of .NET for Windows and one for Linux/UNIX (That being Mono--and it only implements a subset of what the MSFT .NET framework does). Their specs are not widely deployed, they are not "clean" intellectual property, their developer tools, while admittedly of fairly good quality, are limited in choice.
Silverlight is great! Silverlight is cool! It's a great choice! IS it a choice though? Can I run it on Opera yet? HOw complete is Moonlight on Linux? Can I see Silverlight apps on Firefox on Linux? What about Epiphany or Konqueror? What about 64-bit or other non IA32 architectures?
With Java, and with REAL standards, choice is encouraged. SUN invented Java but IBM builds great gobs of it and has its own JVM. It runs on my Nokia phone, and ran on my old Motorola. I have a choice of JVMs I can run on a choice of OSes and through nearly any browser and with any vendors products.
We already have a proprietary, de-facto pseudo-standard with spotty cross-platform support (ie. limited choice) in Flash. Why do we have to have more non-choices in Silverlight? We need a platform that a) doesn't suck AND b) enables us to have choices. Silverlight has its enticements around point a) but I remain unconvinced at this point about b).
By the same theory why do we need both Macs and PCs? They pretty much do the same thing and you have to develop for each one differently.
By the same theory, why do we need both Firefox and IE...
Overall competition is good... it spurs new development and features.
It's too bad that there are any really whiz-bank siverlight sites... even the MS site doesn't use it for much.
Just because C# and VB.net have been largely in line in terms of syntax in the past (and this is becoming less and less so over time, if the introduction of things like VB.net's new XML Literals is any indication) it doesn't mean that VB.net and C# are implemented in a fashion that is at all different from how any other .net language is implemented.
VB.net, C#, IronPython, Boo, IronRuby, F#, Scala, and the list goes on. The are all implemented in the exact same way: by writing a compiler that targets IL.
Why is there no Free, Open alternative? We all bitch about how Flash is a dog on Linux--and it is--but there is nothing to really replace it with.
Or is there?
expandfairuse.org
An Anandtech article from a while back showed that a Core 2 Duo E6700 (2.66 GHz) was needed to play back X-Men III in H.264-encoded Blu-ray. Of course, internet video won't have such high bitrates or deal with AACS, but the processing requirements of high resolution H.264 still seems pretty hefty. The vast majority of CPUs in homes will be less powerful than the E6700 for some time. Integrated Intel GPUs, which don't assist H.264 acceleration yet, still dominate the market.
TO START
PRESS ANY KEY
Where's the 'ANY' key? I see Esk, Kitarl, and Pig-Up...
Just a few quick notes...
AJAX and Silverlight are not in direct competition. Again, think of Silverlight as a cool new picture/animation element on the page that co exists and works with JScript in the AJAX context even. AJAX is only limited by the standard DOM level html contructs available to it, and sadly there is not a good animation standard with this level of complexity, nor a good drawing standard with this level of complexity, let alone one that has inherent code understanding, accessible objects, and event handling.
(This is where people would go SVG, blah blah... There are so many things SVG can't do that Silverlight can it would take a long ass post to point them out. Think of it like this Silverlight understand vector drawing and bitmaps rendering better than PDF or any other more advanced format, and there is no way SVG can even come close to this, let alone do the animation and other aspects.)
Consider this one simple concept, you can even use Ink natively with Silverlight, something that is both complex and out of reach of anything out there. Imagine a Signature box on an AJAX page that retains the ink level data of the person's signature, not just a line or pixel representation.
Also realize that Google is using some pretty heavy backend lifting for some of their AJAX projects that end up shooting realtime rendered PNG/JPG images to the browser. Even for them it would be far easier, and lighter if they could use the new HD(JPEG) photo format and inherent Vector based RIA instead of hit testing an on the fly rendering bitmap image.
(Lookup the new DeepZoom demonstration control of Silverlight for how this plays out in both bandwidth/speed and user experience, and would not be possible without Silverlight.)
One would expect MSFT to support VC1 as it is their own invention....
Ok, a few points here.
VC1 is usually regarded as the better format, as most BluRay and (past HDDVD) titles use VC1 for quality, size and performance reasons. (Search for VC1 and BluRay)
Yes VC1 is basically WMV v9; however, just because this is Microsoft's codec, does not mean it is bad. Let's refresh people of a couple of concepts here. The early MPEG4 specifications for the 1990s is what Microsoft used to created their MPEG4 codecs which XVid/DivX are DIRECTLY based upon. And a lot of people think DivX/XVid do a pretty damn good job, and don't realize the orginal code and concepts were Microsoft interpretations of the early MPEG4. VC1 and WMV are even more advanced versions of codec research from inside Microsoft and can usually beat most other formats in terms of quality or size.
Additionally, the important part of Silverlight supporting HD and VC1 and WMV is that it ALSO supports multi-cast streaming, so you can have one feed using 800kbps and let 1,000,000 people view it at the same time, still only using 800kbps for the streaming content. Additionally, inherent progressive download streaming is an ability of WMV and therefore silverlight, so a dedicated streaming server is not needed for basic video streaming, unlike Flash.
1.5 million spammers, phishers, crackers and other assorted criminals around the world have been VERY busy taking it apart to make sure THEY know every hole.
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'Nuf said.
RE: 4) The learning curve might not be so intense as if moving from Python to C# because even on the .NET CLR/DLR that is employed in the Silverlight CoreCLR, you can use mostly pure Python (.NET) and when you're ready to take specific advantage of .NET features, you can do so (at which points one can argue it ceases to be cross-platform Python) but I that's not the point I wish to focus on. Same with PHP. You might be a PHP developer but moving to C# will have some learning curve mostly because C# depends solely on the BCL libraries. But with the PHP.NET project (forgot what it's called) you can use raw PHP (and some of the extensions) in .NET without actually doing anything specific to target .NET.
.NET implementations of any language on top of the CLR/DLR to entice people to move to the platform. If that happens, you can use your language of choice and take advantage of .NET. I actually learned Ruby from IronRuby and would never have touched it any other way simply because I like what I can do with .NET and I like my tools and all the libraries I've built-up over the years that are .NET derived. In any case, with silverlight in particular, you can use a .NET flavor of PHP, Ruby, and Python that closely resumble their native counterparts.
So I think in a sense you might be right, but you also are wrong. MS is changing the landscape and trying to make it easier to have
Thanks,
Leabre
Well, if it's a more stable platform you're looking for, you certainly won't find it in Silverlight, at least not in its current incarnation. Based on my experience browsing *Microsoft's own* Silverlight-based pages, the stability is terrible. Clicking a control often doesn't work properly or requires multiple clicks, the mouse pointer doesn't change when you hover over clickable controls, animations are slow and jerky, and the whole thing feels much less "dynamic" than most Flash sites I've been to, as if it's nothing more than an AJAX page with a few extra graphics thrown in.