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Remembering NASA Disasters With an Eye Toward the Future

mattnyc99 writes "This next week marks the anniversary of three sad days in NASA's history: three astronauts died in a capsule fire testing for Apollo 1 exactly 42 years ago today, then the Challenger went down 23 years ago tomorrow, followed by the Columbia disaster six years ago this Super Bowl Sunday. Amidst all this sadness, though, too many average Americans take our space program for granted. Amidst reconsiderations of NASA priorities from the Obama camp as the Shuttle nears retirement, then, the brilliant writer Chris Jones offers a great first-hand account in the new issue of Esquire — an impassioned argument against the impending end of our manned space program. In which camp do you fall: mourner or rocketeer?"

273 comments

  1. Simple solution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Launch them in pairs. One is bound to get up there.

    1. Re:Simple solution by SilentBob0727 · · Score: 3, Funny

      Then, when both inevitably explode on some mission, we start sending four. One of THOSE is definitely bound to make it.

      --
      Life would be easier if I had the source code.
    2. Re:Simple solution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      RAES - Redundant array of expensive spacecraft

    3. Re:Simple solution by Zixx · · Score: 1

      RAES - Redundant array of exploding spacecraft

      FTFY.

    4. Re:Simple solution by bandmassa · · Score: 1

      There will always be people willing to risk it all for science, exploration or glory. If US politicians end manned space programmes (i prefer "piloted", "manned" is sexist), companies and other countries will send their best and bravest to the skies. "The nature of monkey was irrepressible!"

      --
      "I hope you like Guinness, Sir. I find it a refreshing substitute for, er... food." Col. Jack O'Neil, SG-1
  2. January ... by Kiaser+Zohsay · · Score: 4, Insightful

    ... is a bad month to be an astronaut.

    --
    I am not your blowing wind, I am the lightning.
    1. Re:January ... by morgan_greywolf · · Score: 1

      Wow. Those all happened, separated by years, within a few days of each other. Maybe NASA should just automatically scrub all attempts to launch or land anything the last week of January.

    2. Re:January ... by fmfnavydoc · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The Russians don't schedule manned launches during week in October for the same reasons...

      --
      "PowerPoint Sucks!" Robert Gates, Secretary of Defense
    3. Re:January ... by netrage_is_bad · · Score: 1

      well maybe if they's celebrate my birthday instead of flying around or on it things like this wouldn't happen.....

    4. Re:January ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Super Bowl / Columbia disaster is in February.

    5. Re:January ... by pjt48108 · · Score: 1

      It certainly seems so. It would be interesting to see of there is something cyclical in society that makes January a bad month to fly to/from space. Like personal cabin fever driving rocketry go fever, etc.

      --
      Mmmmmm... Bold, yet refreshing!
  3. Oblig Rocketeering reference by internerdj · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    I thought they took Jack Thompson's licence to practice law... http://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2007/03/23/

    1. Re:Oblig Rocketeering reference by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just because a rarely used word also occurs in a Penny Arcade or xkcd comic does not actually make it relevant. Further, it was not even remotely obligatory.

  4. Oversensitivity by jtev · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Ok, so we've lost a few people in space exploration. You know what, that's what happens, that's what they signed up for, and... that's healthy. What's not healty is how oversensitive the Public seems to be to these losses. Yes, the shuttle is aging, yes we need a new syste, but we shouldn't abandon manned space flight. Without manned space flight, how will we ever escape the Earth? And sooner or later, the Earth is going to want to be rid of us. Or the sun will, and Earth won't have much choice in the matter.

    --
    That which is done from love exists beyond good and evil
    1. Re:Oversensitivity by rbanffy · · Score: 0, Troll

      I have no problem with them giving their lives to advance the science and practice of space travel. What I object to is them giving their lives to enrich a few government contractors that sell overpriced equipment that's less reliable than it should be.

      The people on the ground have bigger responsibilities than to secure their jobs. Most of them never forget it, but NASA must make sure nobody does.

      As for the unavoidable comparison with the so called "war on terror", there are a lot of people sacrificing themselves for all the wrong reasons.

    2. Re:Oversensitivity by Hordeking · · Score: 1

      Ok, so we've lost a few people in space exploration. You know what, that's what happens, that's what they signed up for, and... that's healthy. What's not healty is how oversensitive the Public seems to be to these losses. Yes, the shuttle is aging, yes we need a new syste, but we shouldn't abandon manned space flight. Without manned space flight, how will we ever escape the Earth? And sooner or later, the Earth is going to want to be rid of us. Or the sun will, and Earth won't have much choice in the matter.

      I'd take this risk any day over a mundane job.

      --
      Disclaimer: The opinions and actions of the US Gov't are in no way representative of those held by this author or its ci
    3. Re:Oversensitivity by UnknowingFool · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Sure astronauts know that their missions are dangerous. They know that when they sign up for the program. What they didn't sign up for was the lax concern for their safety. In both the Challenger and the Columbia disasters, low level engineers warned management about the risk. Unfortunately their warnings were discounted and their concerns were not passed higher up than middle managers. I remember reading somewhere that a NASA manager argued against delaying Columbia's return for more time to study the wing strike (and NASA engineers did spot it soon after launch) because it would be bad PR to delay the return. In Congressional reports the same bureaucratic and managerial failings that caused the Challenger disaster also caused the Columbia disaster almost 2 decades later.

      --
      Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
    4. Re:Oversensitivity by try_anything · · Score: 1

      I think the handwringing about the deaths of astronauts and soldiers in Iraq is mostly motivated not by real sensitivity but by the belief (or fear) that other people are sensitive to the issue. That's why newscasters act so mournful and why anti-war and pro-war political activists make such a big deal out of it. Except for the people who have actually lost someone, it's all crocodile tears. If anything, people are surprised and amazed at the low number of casualties.

      What people really take seriously is the cost. (And Iraqi civilian casualties are another matter, too, but that's beside the point.) Is there a better way we could be spending that money? For the space program, right now it seems like unmanned missions will accomplish a lot more for the same amount of money.

    5. Re:Oversensitivity by 2short · · Score: 3, Insightful

      "Without manned space flight, how will we ever escape the Earth?"

      With or without manned space flight now, we probably won't escape Earth ever. Well, OK, maybe. If you allow a generous definition of "we", the answer might be "in robotic bodies". Space is very large, and there is almost nothing there. What little stuff there is out there is not what humans need to live. Long before any human lives a life not dependent on Earth, the humans will have changed beyond what we would recognize.

      Either way, it's a long way off, and what we do in the next decade probably won't make any difference. It might be good to learn as much as we can about the solar system, and I for one would like to do that anyway. How shall we go about it? Well, humans who explore space by sending probes that don't contain other humans have so far learned vastly more than the humans who explore space by sending probes that do contain other humans, and they've done it with a tiny fraction of the resources.

    6. Re:Oversensitivity by DiegoBravo · · Score: 1

      This is debatable. There is the popular and comfortable idea about those stupid and insensible managers that ignored engineers. Sadly those projects are too complex, and I think that there is a lot of unpredictability and unconsidered scenarios that can't be totally simulated, analyzed and probed. Managers often (always) have to take decisions without complete information, eventually ignoring unclear technical advise (and over-informative technical advise.) In an extremely complex project like the shuttle, always there will be at least some sensor giving weird lectures, but awaiting for the totally perfect conditions would delay the launches forever.

      The solution? maybe there will be no solution for some decades; maybe we need another level of intelligence (in management and engineering) to cope with that level of complexities.

    7. Re:Oversensitivity by UncleTogie · · Score: 1

      What little stuff there is out there is not what humans need to live. Long before any human lives a life not dependent on Earth, the humans will have changed beyond what we would recognize.

      Barring, of course, a life-threatening global event... in which case having us on Mars would enable humans to keep on living.

      --
      Don't tell me to get a life. I'm a gamer; I have LOTS of lives!
    8. Re:Oversensitivity by UnknowingFool · · Score: 1

      The night before the Challenger disaster, there was a teleconference between NASA and Morton Thiokol (MTI--the company that designed and built the boosters). NASA asked MTI on recommendation for launch. At first MTI did not support a launch if the temperature was below 53 F (12 C). NASA was surprised by this and took the meeting offline. The managers then met without the engineers. The managers then challenged MTI to prove that the shuttle was not safe instead of the more cautious stance of proving that the shuttle was safe. MTI relented under pressure and recommended launch.

      In the Columbia disaster, engineers were concerned about the foam strike. They requested images to be taken to determine the extent of damage since they did not have enough information. They were met with resistance with one manager refusing to "be Chicken Little" and Columbia's flight director, Le Roy Cain saying "I consider it [the foam strike] to be a dead issue."

      The final Columbia report said:

      Management seemed more concerned about the staff following proper channels (even while they were themselves taking informal advice) than they were about the analysis.

      and

      Managers' claims that they didn't hear the engineers' concerns were due in part to their not asking or listening.

      --
      Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
    9. Re:Oversensitivity by 2short · · Score: 1


      Did you read the line you quorted? I stand by my prediction. Before humans can live on Mars independent of support from Earth, they will have changed such that they are not necessarily recognizable as humans; assuming that day ever comes. And the best way to help that day come is to learn more about Mars as effectively as possible: by sending remote probes that don't have useless, incredibly wasteful humans inside them. I believe the evidence supports me:
          Stuff learned by sending probes not containing humans to Mars: lots.
          Stuff learned by sending probes containing humans to Mars: zilch.

    10. Re:Oversensitivity by icebrain · · Score: 1

      Stuff learned by sending probes not containing humans to Mars: lots.
      Stuff learned by sending probes containing humans to Mars: zilch.

      False dichotomy. "This thing is worthless because we haven't learned anything from it" is hardly a valid statement when you haven't even done that thing.

      Let's try a different comparison, replacing Mars with the moon. We learned a metric assload of stuff from the six Apollo landings and their EVAs. A manned crew has higher support costs, but can cover a lot more ground in a given timeframe, does not have to deal with latency on the order of minutes for every command, and is far more capable of independent decision-making than any robot will ever be.

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    11. Re:Oversensitivity by tcolberg · · Score: 1

      Whenever someone brings up the human costs of spaceflight, this quote comes immediately to mind:

      If you can't take a little bloody nose, maybe you ought to go back home and crawl under your bed. It's not safe out here. It's wondrous - with treasures to satiate desires both subtle and gross. But it's not for the timid.

      If there's anything that makes me depressed about the prospects of my generation, it's the inability to imagine the opportunities of spaceflight and the fretting about rare losses of crew or materiel.

    12. Re:Oversensitivity by SoupGuru · · Score: 1

      So we never escape Earth and the Sun blows us up.

      I never got the big deal about it. Slashdot is filled with people repeating this over and over as if it's the most obvious argument in the world for investing in manned space missions. But it's nothing more than a pipe dream.

      Besides, who gives a crap if an asteroid plows into the earth and kills us all?

      --
      What doesn't kill you only delays the inevitable
    13. Re:Oversensitivity by couchslug · · Score: 1

      People are an extreme handicap to space exploration because they slow development of systems to a crawl.

      In order to EXPLOIT space we need to learn more about SPACE even if we wait to learn more about PEOPLE in space.
      There is no reason not to use many unmanned probes to get information first, then when supporting technologies are more advanced, send the meat tourists up to have some fun.

      We used meat to explore Terra because manned systems and men were cheap. Lose a ship? No big deal. Ships were wood and men died young anyway. Now meat is valued, and meat-support systems horribly expensive. If we put the effort into machines, the human race benefits from the advances in robotics we desperately need. Slow-leaking spaceship development while trying to produce a safe machine with our primitive technology is silly. Wait a decade or several, and send many probes instead. All an astronaut is, is a machinery manipulator. Just as we are removing pilots from combat aircraft (we don't miss drones when they get zapped) we should take the meat out of space cockpits.

      --
      "This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
    14. Re:Oversensitivity by UncleTogie · · Score: 1

      Did you read the line you quorted?

      Never. As everyone knows, quorting a line is almost as much of a party foul as bogarting a doobie.

      I stand by my prediction. Before humans can live on Mars independent of support from Earth, they will have changed such that they are not necessarily recognizable as humans; assuming that day ever comes.

      I'd love to hear your definition of "human" then....or are you really suggesting that a major evolutionary leap would happen faster than colonization of Mars?

      --
      Don't tell me to get a life. I'm a gamer; I have LOTS of lives!
    15. Re:Oversensitivity by 2short · · Score: 1

      We've spent a tiny amount of money on unmanned space exploration, and thousands of times as much on manned exploration. Unmanned has yielded vastly better results, so the manned-exploration proponents complain they don't have enough funding. It's beyond crazy. Space exploration still counts, even if you use good tools.

      "We learned a metric assload of stuff from the six Apollo landings and their EVAs."

      No, we didn't. We learned a metric assload of stuff from the rocks they brought back. By examining them on Earth. I heartily endorse a sample-return mission to Mars. Which we can do in the next couple years as long as we don't take unnecessary passengers.

      "A manned crew has higher support costs"
      You can say that a hundred thousand more times. Not that that would represent the cost differential. You can't say it enough for that in your lifetime.

      "but can cover a lot more ground in a given timeframe"

      The time frames aren't given; remote probes can operate continuously for years, not just a few hours. And remote probes can get knowledge faster because they can get there sooner. Like, in the sense that starting exploration a few years ago is sooner that maybe thinking about it a couple decades from now if you're really wildly optimistic.

      "does not have to deal with latency on the order of minutes for every command"

      Are you under the impression the Astronauts did anything whatsoever without discussing extensively it with Earth-bound controllers? In any case, again, the probe won't need to sleep, eat, or come home, waiting a few minutes is irrelevant. And that's just in the unusual case that you can't plan everything to do hours days or weeks in advance (like the Astronauts did).

      "and is far more capable of independent decision-making than any robot will ever be."
      There are no robots; humans are exploring Mars by using their excellent brains to make effective tools.

      It is silly to argue what would be more effective as if it were all in the future. Manned space flight got, and gets, radically better funding, and unmanned spaceflight has been exploring Mars for years now. The race is over, and manned space flight is thinking about finding the starting line.

      You blithely disregard the cost and effort of getting people there and keeping them alive, but here in the real world, these are actual concerns that impact the decision of how to go about things.

    16. Re:Oversensitivity by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      Stuff learned by sending probes not containing humans to Mars: lots.

      Stuff learned by sending probes containing humans to Mars: zilch.

      Of course, we sent a couple rovers to Mars that in five years have gone over almost as much terrain as one man could have covered on foot between breakfast and lunch.

      While it is arguable that robots are better than humans for exploratory missions, it must be remembered that the constraint is that we learn things very, very slowly.

      I've often wondered how much we'd know about Mars if we'd put six guys down there for 18 months back in the mid-80s....

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    17. Re:Oversensitivity by 2short · · Score: 1

      "I'd love to hear your definition of 'human' then....or are you really suggesting that a major evolutionary leap would happen faster than colonization of Mars?"

      No, I'm really suggesting exactly what I said earlier in the thread, so I'll again suggest reading the stuff you reply to. It is my estimation that if we could somehow see into the future and see the first "humans" living on Mars without any need for support from Earth, we would call them "robots". It would probably be debateable, and depend on your definitions.

    18. Re:Oversensitivity by 2short · · Score: 1

      "Of course, we sent a couple rovers to Mars that in five years have gone over almost as much terrain as one man could have covered on foot between breakfast and lunch. "

      Where is he then? Lunch was five years ago.

      "While it is arguable that robots are better than humans for exploratory missions, it must be remembered that the constraint is that we learn things very, very slowly. "

      Much more quickly than waiting for humans that aren't there yet.

      "I've often wondered how much we'd know about Mars if we'd put six guys down there for 18 months back in the mid-80s...."

      Oh sure, we'd learn lots if we put people there without having to worry about the difficulty of getting them there and keeping them alive. But imagine how much more we could learn if we explored using magic faries riding unicorns!

    19. Re:Oversensitivity by DiegoBravo · · Score: 1

      Not surprisingly. At the end, the management always carries with the responsibility. Part of the duty.

      The point is not about some (indeed true) fatal management failure. The point is that always there are a lot of management (and engineering) failures despite the quality of the people at charge (because of intractable complexity), but only in a fatal outcome there are commissions that inform as about the most probable/credible causes for the accident (the so called "conclusions".)

      > The managers then challenged MTI to prove that the shuttle was not safe instead of the more cautious stance of proving that the shuttle was safe.

      Out of context, for a standard project this sounds really nasty (or unethical if you want.) But when you are in regressive counting, spending a lot of tax money for every second delayed, and when supposedly every supplier already tested every piece provided, it is pretty difficult to start a new investigation in order to prove that the shuttle is safe (BTW, how do you "prove" that?)

      Please, I'm not apologizing that people; the point is that there is no decision process that provides a 99% of reliability for that kind of project (and as far as I remember, both accident reports added the recommendation of an improved decision process...)

      regards

    20. Re:Oversensitivity by UncleTogie · · Score: 1

      No, I'm really suggesting exactly what I said earlier in the thread, so I'll again suggest reading the stuff you reply to.

      I am. The main problem is that you don't appear to be making sense. Hence the request for clarification. What, you think I reply randomly to posts without reading?

      It is my estimation that if we could somehow see into the future and see the first "humans" living on Mars without any need for support from Earth, we would call them "robots".

      Why? What lifeform type are you picturing here? What would need to be SO different as to make them unrecognizable as "human"?

      --
      Don't tell me to get a life. I'm a gamer; I have LOTS of lives!
    21. Re:Oversensitivity by thej1nx · · Score: 1
      Besides, who gives a crap if an asteroid plows into the earth and kills us all?

      In similar vein, who gives a crap if you stopped eating/crapping/sleeping and eventually just died in next few days?

      But you cannot stop eating/crapping/sleeping, can you? Apparently, You would like to continue living. All life is about survival, and doing everything possible to maximize the chances of survival of self/group.

      Birds migrate, species adapt... it is the nature of life. It is the built-in imperative. Some people like you would put self before group, and would care more about your own short-term interests. Some would put group before self, and would rather bear some hardships now, in order to maximize the survival of their children.

      With your kind of cynical logic, why do *anything* at all? Why build bridges, cities, schools? Why give a crap?

    22. Re:Oversensitivity by Thiez · · Score: 1

      > Birds migrate, species adapt... it is the nature of life. It is the built-in imperative.

      Then again, 'it is a built-in imperative' is hardly a good reason to do something. 'I am performing this action because millions of years of evolution have decided that this is a good way for my genes to spread.' sounds pretty dumb to me. To your genes you are nothing but a reproduction machine with a three billion years of feature creep. You are the means to their end, and 100% expendable when they are done with you (salmon comes to mind). They will not hesitate to encourage self-destructive behavior when this makes you have many babies before you kick the bucket. Consider yourself cannon fodder in their war for reproduction. To use them to decide what is a proper course of action for a person is a bad idea.

      > Some would put group before self, and would rather bear some hardships now, in order to maximize the survival of their children.

      Okay... but let's be realistic here. The sun is not going to kill us for the next few billion years. A few generations from now, people will be amused at our attempts to ensure their survival with our horribly ineffective technology.

    23. Re:Oversensitivity by Weedlekin · · Score: 1

      "We used meat to explore Terra because manned systems and men were cheap."

      We used to explore using men and manned systems because there weren't any other ways to do it.

      --
      I'm not going to change your sheets again, Mr. Hastings.
    24. Re:Oversensitivity by UnknowingFool · · Score: 1

      Out of context, for a standard project this sounds really nasty (or unethical if you want.) But when you are in regressive counting, spending a lot of tax money for every second delayed, and when supposedly every supplier already tested every piece provided, it is pretty difficult to start a new investigation in order to prove that the shuttle is safe (BTW, how do you "prove" that?)

      For the most part, safety rating is huge thing in any engineering or construction project which the shuttle should be treated. If you're building a distillation column or a bridge, you usually error on the side of safety.

      In industrial engineering and construction, everything is supposed to be tested and rated. If your distillation column puts out $1 million worth of product a day, you can't afford downtime because someone used cheap, untested bolts in a pipe somewhere. Every part on the shuttle was supposed to go through testing already so "more delay" wasn't really any issue. It was already a part of the process.

      Richard Feynman's critique of the shuttle program was that these safety rating numbers were arbitrarily made up by management without real basis in engineering. For example, a column with a safety rating of 3 means that the column should support loads 3X of what the specifications calls for. So if the column needs to handle 10,000 lbs, it really can handle 30,000lbs without breaking but the column is installed for applications of 10,000lbs not 30,000lbs. What he found was that unrealistic numbers like failure rates of 1 in 10,000 came from nowhere. Talking to engineers, the numbers were actually closer to 1 in 100.

      So NASA had these unrealistic notions of safety based on arbitrary numbers. This attitude made them cavalier when safety concerns did come up. "O-ring failure, it's a 1 in 10,000 event. What do you mean it's more likely than that? Prove to me it is." instead of "O-ring failure. It's a 1 in 100 event. Okay, we need to look at this."

      --
      Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
    25. Re:Oversensitivity by SoupGuru · · Score: 1

      Let's say you and your son are abducted by aliens. For whatever reason, they point a gun at your son and say, "Either will kill your son and everyone lives or we vaporize the Earth with everyone on it."

      I would choose to vaporize the whole Earth. Because it doesn't matter. Everything we choose to do as a species is only seen subjectively. The good and bad things we do are judged in context of our culture. If we all get wiped out, there is no one left to care.

      --
      What doesn't kill you only delays the inevitable
    26. Re:Oversensitivity by iamangry · · Score: 1

      The point is not that they can do more science, but that they can do different science. Your assertion that self sustained life off of Earth is so far off that humans will have become something different is fallacious and without merit. We have the science today, we could have the technology tomorrow to make such a feat happen. What it is clear we don't have is the commitment or the force of will to do it, which saddens me. The most common attack against manned spaceflight is that it is not economically pragmatic to do so. I beg to disagree. The costs of supporting humans in spaceflight are much higher than the costs of supporting a computer, this is undeniably true. However, it is in the challenge of supporting humans in spaceflight that forces a magnitude of innovation which would otherwise be absent from the program. The technologies developed in perfecting the support of humans in space is commonly that technology which is most applicable to daily life.

    27. Re:Oversensitivity by 2short · · Score: 1


      OK, it was not meant to be this big a deal, but I'll try assuming you're actually trying to understand and take a shot at explaining what I was trying to say:

      Mars is not a very hospitable place for humans to live. There is no air to breathe, etc. It might be possible at some point to build an outpost there that humans can live in, assuming they get regular shipments of various supplies from Earth. However, I find it hard to imagine that a Martian colony would be entirely, indefinitely self-sufficient, deriving everything it needs from Mars itself, because Mars isn't a very good supplier for the needs of people, who evolved on Earth. Therefore, if there ever is a self-sufficient Martian colony, it is my estimation that it will be very far in the future, and that it will be achieved not chiefly by getting what human bodies need out of Mars, but by changing the bodies of the humans to only need things Mars can supply. So imagine a far future human civilization builds some sort of artificial body, and puts a human consciousness in control of it (by transplanting their brain, or more esoteric means, consult your favorite sci-fi author for details). I expect such colonists would not be recognizably human to you and I if we didn't know the details in between.

      That's it. Note that this is just my estimation of the most likely scenario for a Martian settlement, assuming one ever occurs. I don't really know, and you're free to disagree.

      Even if you think an independent Martian settlement is much nearer than I do, I believe it is unreasonable to suggest that it is so close that it makes sense today to spend limited resources on manned space flight instead of exploration via unmanned probes. That is my main point. The "in robotic bodies" reference was meant to be an offhand remark that actually answered the question posed by the poster I originally replied to. My main idea was to then move on to discuss why I thought that question was irrelevant in any case.

    28. Re:Oversensitivity by UncleTogie · · Score: 1

      I appreciate the clarification!

      --
      Don't tell me to get a life. I'm a gamer; I have LOTS of lives!
    29. Re:Oversensitivity by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      Oh sure, we'd learn lots if we put people there without having to worry about the difficulty of getting them there and keeping them alive.

      Von Braun designed a Mars mission in the 50's. There hasn't actually been a real impediment to a Mars mission since the late 70's, other than lack of willingness to spend the money.

      I note that the Soviets kept people in free fall long enough to complete a Mars mission back in the early 80's.

      Also, it should be noted that deltaV requirements to reach Mars are similar to that required to reach the Moon. Which we did in 1969. A lander, of course, is a whole other issue - it would need from 1.5x to 2x the deltaV of the LM.

      In other words, the only reason we haven't sent a man or six to Mars is because we didn't want to, not because we didn't know how, or were incapable of it.

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    30. Re:Oversensitivity by 2short · · Score: 1

      "The point is not that they can do more science, but that they can do different science."

      Manned missions are better for learning how to do manned missions, absolutely. Where I disagree is that I don't think that is a very important thing to learn.

      "Your assertion that self sustained life off of Earth is so far off that humans will have become something different is fallacious and without merit"

      It is not "fallacious"; deductions based on incorrect logic are fallacious, and I'm not deducing anything, I'm guessing. My guess certainly might be wrong. But to be clear, my guess is not what you say it is. It is not that indefinitely self-sustained life on Mars is so far off humans will become something else first. Rather it is my guess that if humans achieve indefinitely self-sustained life on Mars, they will do so largely by (intentionally) changing their bodies so as to be better suited to living on Mars. Their contemporaries on Earth I expect will still look just like us.

      Obviously, your guess as to how far off a self-sustaining Mars colony is is wildly more optimistic than mine. Given that we can barely keep the ISS going on the edge of our atmosphere with constant resupply missions, I just don't see it.

      Of all the things to be learned from our space program, "How to live in space" is not very near the top of my list, and every thing else is much easier to learn with remote probes than manned missions. Manned missions are so hard, you really can't afford to do anything else but stay alive.

      I also tend to think there are plenty of challenges in sending an unmanned probe to Mars, and that is you want to develop technology applicable to daily life on Earth, space is a lousy place to do it.

      Anyway, you're welcome to have different guesse about the future than me, or different priorities for the present. My main point is that if the goal is to learn about Mars, as opposed to learning about man, unmanned probes are vastly more efficient. That part isn't speculation, it's been well demonstrated by the fine engineers who have sent unmanned probes to Mars for budgets that don't get a human off the launch pad.

  5. Rocketeer by aztektum · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Coincidently I've been watchin' the "When We Left Earth" DVD's recently. One of the astronauts that discussed the Columbia accident said that they know the risk and do it anyway.

    How many more people have died in the Iraq conflict than the entire history of the space program? It's pretty twisted that the majority have done comparatively little to end that, but are ready to grab their pitch forks and torches when it comes to the space program.

    --
    :: aztek ::
    No sig for you!!
    1. Re:Rocketeer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Or traffic accidents, let's unman traffic. From what I have seen astronauts are aware of the risks and still dedicate their whole lives to the cause. I'd go, if NASA would take me. I'd even go in January!

    2. Re:Rocketeer by jellomizer · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Numbers don't lie, But they are quite vague.
      Unfortunately for a country who hates math so much we love to use numbers to prove our point any point.
      I have dubbed the term Mathify to explain this concept (The word Quantify is to formal)

      We have been seeing a lot of this.
      We look at the layoffs they are the greatest since the great depression... We look at the unemployment numbers they are the lowest in 20 years. Depending on how scared you want to make the public you use different numbers to prove your point, you tell the truth the numbers are correct however you are being very vague and not giving the full story. As we have more people in the US who can be considered unemployed vs then Great Depression As most women didn't work (Taxable jobs), so they weren't considered unemployed. So now we nearly doubled our workforce as well a rise in population has created a situation of Quantity of unemployed is greater then the great depression however Quantity of unemployed / Quantity of employed is much greater.

      The same thing with your argument, the number of people being killed in Iraq is higher the the number of Space accidents... However the percentage is much higher to die in a space accident vs. going to war. Just living in some cities is considered more dangerous then going to war in Iraq.

      However you cant just account for ratios either, as you may think it safer to survive being hit by a hurricane vs. being hit by a tornado so if you are an insurance adjuster then you charge so much more as a tornado adjuster.

      Numbers are helpful for comparing like things. However they are vague and don't give the complete story.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    3. Re:Rocketeer by ColdWetDog · · Score: 2, Informative

      Oh that's an old story...

      There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies and statistics.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    4. Re:Rocketeer by ivan256 · · Score: 1

      Total costs so far:

      Space shuttle program : Iraq war mk2
                $145 billion : $620 billion

      Total (US) deaths so far:


      Space shuttle program : Iraq war mk2
                14 : 4236

      Clearly the Iraq war is more efficient, with almost seven deaths per billion dollars to the shuttle's ten billion per death.

      All this is moot, by the way. Despite the relatively low cost of the space program compared to the other things we spend money on, the bulk of public opinion is that the program is a waste of money.

    5. Re:Rocketeer by ivan256 · · Score: 1

      By the way, that $145 billion number is 1980-present. The entire length of the program so far.

    6. Re:Rocketeer by WinPimp2K · · Score: 1

      But you are only considering US soldiers killed in Iraq while you included non-astronauts in your total for the shuttle program. You should properly include non-soldiers killed in Iraq as well, then you would see that the Iraq war is far more efficient in terms of simple killing. But the shuttle is incredibly more efficient at killing people at altitudes in excess of 10,000 feet.

      But to be fair you should also measure the efficiency of the Iraq war at delivering payloads to orbit compared to the shuttle.

      More seriously, the government needs to get out of the way of the private space companies and just offer big rewards - like guaranteed contracts for so 5 thousand tons of cargo to LEO per year at a fixed price of say 500.00 per pound and 10 kiltons more at 250.00 per pound. That would put up enough stuff to make a whole lot of solar power satellites as well as a good start on asteroid capture and mining facilities.

      Those things will happen even if it is done by taikonauts instead of astronauts.

      --

      You either believe in rational thought or you don't
  6. Lesson 1 by PPH · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Those little Mars rovers seem to be going strong. Lets put our money where it seems to be providing the best ROI.

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
    1. Re:Lesson 1 by period3 · · Score: 1

      I understand your point, and the left brain agrees.

      The right brain wonders how ROI is even measured, and why numbers that can be traded for tasty snacks should set the course for the future of mankind.

      I'm going to go buy a cookie.

    2. Re:Lesson 1 by Haoie · · Score: 1

      Manned space flight and unmanned are in completely different worlds altogether [no pun intended].

      In terms of cost, technology, time frame, outcome, a lot of things.

      You can't always send a robot to do a man's job.

      --
      If each mistake being made is a new one, then progress is being made.
    3. Re:Lesson 1 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lets not forget the robots on Mars that came before them, 50% of them died a horrible horrible death.

    4. Re:Lesson 1 by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 1

      The ROI argument is interesting, but you run into the question of "What is your Return?" The investment of sending two rovers to cruise around Mars is obviously miniscule compared to the herculean task of sending humans. But are you getting as good a "Return" by investing in robots as you would get by investing in humans?

      This isn't that easy a question to answer, unfortunately, because your "return"--in theory, the increase of human knowledge about Mars--is amorphous. What are you trying to learn?

      For example, we sent a probe to Mars recently that landed at the northern polar ice cap. We outfitted it with various instruments to analyze soil samples. We discovered that there is frozen water close to the surface of the northern polar ice cap.

      Total cost to make this one discovery: $450 million.

      So sending astronauts to Mars to discover one thing is certainly a poor return on your investment.

      On the other hand, consider the Apollo missions versus the Soviet Union's Luna missions. As an interesting measure, consider that the Apollo astronauts returned with 381 kilograms of moon rocks whereas the Luna missions returned 130 grams of moon dust. So the Luna missions were certainly cheaper, but did we learn more from the more expensive Apollo missions than the Soviet Union learned from their less expensive Luna missions?

  7. While that happened.... by Samschnooks · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Joe 'the Programmer' Smith died from a heart attack. He lived a very boring life. He hated getting up in the Morning. He hated sitting behind a computer all day. He hated the fact that he had to work so much, leave his children and his wife was bored. He dreamed of doing something that made him feel alive. He dreamed of adventure. He dreamed of not being safe.

    Get my drift folks? Astronauts do not become Astronauts because they want a safe job. If I were capable, I'd risk my life to be in Space.

    1. Re:While that happened.... by Shag · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Astronauts do not become Astronauts because they want a safe job

      True of a lot of jobs, though. Soldiers, athletes, diplomats, astronomers...

      --
      Village idiot in some extremely smart villages.
    2. Re:While that happened.... by stuntpope · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated.

    3. Re:While that happened.... by bitrex · · Score: 1
    4. Re:While that happened.... by snspdaarf · · Score: 2, Funny

      Porn actors.....

      --
      Why, without your clothes, you're naked, Miss Dudley!
    5. Re:While that happened.... by couchslug · · Score: 1

      Too bad Joe wasn't well-rounded enough to have other interests. Joe won't go into space, he isn't one of the few astronauts. Most people who build aircraft aren't pilots either.

      We can afford to kill astronauts, but they make space exporation too expensive. It isn't a matter of THEIR feelings about risk. Physical courage is common. It's a matter of bang for the buck, so send machines first.

      --
      "This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
    6. Re:While that happened.... by Amiralul · · Score: 1

      You will die anyway: in your bed at home, while a car hits you, in a hospital. Why not die doing something fun, like riding a space shuttle or trying to land on the Moon?

  8. I was thinking about this the other day... by grocer · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Considering the greatest impact manned space travel has had on my life is probably freeze dried fruit in my morning cereal, that's a pretty lousy cost-to-benefit ratio. Until there's something better than a rocket for propulsion, I don't think manned space flight makes sense. However, the rovers and robots are definitely worth it. I think it makes a whole more sense than trying to shoot people into space.

    1. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What are you smoking that you think anything is better than a rocket for propulsion? Even advanced nuclear powered space travel ideas are based on the idea of nuclear thermal rockets. Magic antigravity devices I guess could be invented. Manned space flight will make sense when we decide to live in space and colonize other planets. Until then it should be treated as an experiment on the effects of space on humans.

    2. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by philspear · · Score: 2, Informative

      You are currently using one of the fruits of the space program: a computer.

    3. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by morgan_greywolf · · Score: 1

      Manned space flight has directly or indirectly resulted in technologies you're likely using right now.

    4. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by the_humeister · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Without shooting people into space, we'd never have known about how fast bone mass decreases within just a few weeks.

      Of course there are other technologies and issues that have cropped up that have impacted your life that were either a direct or indirect result of the various space programs. For a list go here! Some include scratch resistant lenses and cochlear implants.

    5. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by Nebulious · · Score: 1

      Considering the greatest impact manned space travel has had on my life is probably freeze dried fruit in my morning cereal, that's a pretty lousy cost-to-benefit ratio.

      This has to be one of the most ignorant statements I've ever seen on Slashdot. Between microgravity experiments and the need to engineer new technology for space missions, I doubt a single American goes a single day without technology directly or indirectly resulting from the space program. We have gained tons from going into space, especially in materials science and biotechnology. Lots of good science goes on in space that can't be done on Earth. If anything, we should be doing more, not less.

    6. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by thesandtiger · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Except he said *manned* space-flight, not just space-flight. In fact, he specifically said robots and rovers were AOK in his mind. And computers were developed a bit before space-flight, manned or unmanned. So your comment is basically incorrect in both content and purpose.

      Personally, I think the bulk of the benefits of manned space-flight have been in the coin of inspiration. When Armstrong took those first steps on the moon, that said something about humanity as a species. Rovers, while cool as hell and certainly less costly, just don't fire up the imagination quite the same way. Even so, we pissed all that away by not continuing to push forward.

      What I'd like to see happen is to continue the exploratory bits we do now with robots - map the terrain, as it were - and limit human exploration to orbit in the form of building *real* space-stations, *real* manufacturing capability, maybe bring a few metal asteroids around to use as raw materials. Launching from orbit rather than from the surface of the Earth would certainly cut the cost of a Mars mission dramatically, and developing the orbital manufacture technologies and capabilities would have very tangible benefits.

      Seems a much better approach than pissing away billions of dollars to send a 1-shot there and back "look what we can do" mission that won't yield much in the way of actual benefit beyond "wow, people got to Mars" which will, unfortunately, almost certainly yield the same results as "wow, people got to the moon."

      --
      Since I can't tell them apart, I treat all ACs as the same person.
    7. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by kabocox · · Score: 1

      One or two things a year? Screw that. I want them working to solve these problems:

      http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/FASTATS/lcod.htm

      Number of deaths for leading causes of death

      Heart disease: 652,091
      Cancer: 559,312
      Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 143,579
      Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 130,933
      Accidents (unintentional injuries): 117,809
      Diabetes: 75,119
      Alzheimer's disease: 71,599
      Influenza/Pneumonia: 63,001
      Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 43,901
      Septicemia: 34,136

      I say screw Iraq and military R&D toys. Yes I love Darpa toys too, but playing by the numbers I'm much more likely to get heart disease, cancer, or a stroke than have any foreigner try to kill me. Those numbers are generally yearly numbers! We loose more to heart disease, cancer, and a stroke per year than in any military conflict. If they want a forever war, I don't want a war on mythical enemies. I'd be happy if the government declared forever war on known proven mass killers US citizens. We need a War on Disease and ill/poor health. The top ten statistical killers will always change over time, but it gives us a real solid enemy to aim at.

    8. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by MobyDisk · · Score: 1

      [citation required]
      Judging from this History of computing it looks like war contributed more to computers than the space program did.

    9. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by Reality+Master+201 · · Score: 1

      You and your silly reliance on facts over emotional appeals. That's not gonna get you far at Slashdot.

    10. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by philspear · · Score: 1

      Aargh! You know, I swear I had seen it written on that very page you cited, now it's not there! Someone changed it!

      (Or, much more likely, it's that I've made this mistake before, found that page, realized I was wrong, and subconsciously switched the memory around to ease the pain. Stupid subconscious...)

    11. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by JCSoRocks · · Score: 1

      The trouble is we already have solutions to most of those problems. Unfortunately they involve eating a healthy diet and getting some exercise. That's just too much work though, so we need to develop a "cure" instead. Also, when you're just talking numbers like that you have to realize that 80 year old people finally dying from stroke or heart disease kind of skew the results.

      --
      You are using English. Please learn the difference between loose and lose; they're, there, and their; your and you're.
    12. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by the_humeister · · Score: 2, Informative

      Stroke and heart disease: Usually the same issue with atherosclerosis. The problem has already been solved! ie change of diet and more exercise. That alone reduces heart disease and stroke deaths due to prevention. The thing is, you can't force people to do healthy things.

      Cancer: The top 3 cancer killers are, in order: 1) lung, 2) colon, 3) breast (for women)/prostate (for men). Again, the solution is 1) stop smoking, 2) get your colonoscopy after age 50, 3) go see your doctor regularly. And again, we can't force people to do healthy things if they don't want to.

      Diabetes: Most are due to type 2 and most of these people are overweight/obese. See solution for heart disease/stroke above.

      In other words, most of the deaths that you've listed can be attributed to lifestyle choices. And you can't force people to change if they don't want to.

    13. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by the_humeister · · Score: 1

      BTW, the link lists technologies for the hall of fame. There are certainly more innovations that don't necessarily make it to the hall of fame.

    14. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 2, Informative

      What that page barely mentions is the massive change in computing that occurred during the 60's and early 70's. It gets all of two sentences: "Vacuum tube electronics were largely replaced in the 1960s by transistor-based electronics, which are smaller, faster, cheaper to produce, require less power, and are more reliable. In the 1970s, integrated circuit technology and the subsequent creation of microprocessors, such as the Intel 4004, further decreased size and cost and further increased speed and reliability of computers." Which is certainly true as far as it goes ... but neglects to mention that this advance was largely driven by demand from NASA.

      At the beginning of the Apollo program, computers were no more than giant calculators. By the end, they were recognizably on track to becoming today's machines. And it was because of the computational demands of sending men to the Moon that this happened.

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
    15. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by Rollgunner · · Score: 1

      You mean other than the smoke alarm, which saves hundreds of lives every day, and was developed specifically for the Skylab program ?

    16. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by khallow · · Score: 1

      but playing by the numbers I'm much more likely to get heart disease, cancer, or a stroke than have any foreigner try to kill me

      But hypothetically speaking, if irate foreigners did suddenly take the number one place away from heart disease, wouldn't you be interested in government doing something about it? While security theater and military adventurism is absurd, it does remain that there are useful reasons to resist to what would superficially seem an excessive degree humans killing us. Sentient risk is different from non-sentient risk. Heart disease doesn't learn your weaknesses nor improve how it harms you. If we don't do anything about heart disease, it will still be killing around the same number of people it does today. On the other hand, there are people who, if they find a risk-free way to earn $100 by killing a person would figure out how to scale that up to a million people. By having a heavy handed reaction to any such attempt to exploit the deaths of others, we attempt to change the balance so that even the sociopaths among us have incentive to play nice.

      Having said that, I really dislike the spinoff argument for supporting NASA. So much is ignored when you make it your primary justification.

    17. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by khallow · · Score: 1

      There are two words that describe the gaping hole in your argument. Opportunity cost. Even if the activities in question are so important that we have to pursue them no matter the cost to us on Earth, there's still the point that we could be doing more in space with what we currently have. When the activities in question aren't so important that we can ignore matters of cost, then it's especially disturbing to see on the order of a trillion dollars (just for the US contribution alone) in costs justified on the basis of scratch resistant lenses and cochlear implants. Especially since scratch resistant lenses and cochlear implants would have been developed anyway.

    18. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by MobyDisk · · Score: 1

      Yeah, I was surprised at the jump from vacuum tubes to modern computers. But I'm not qualified to add details without investing considerable time into the research.

    19. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Eat less and better, move more. Simple as that.

    20. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, fruit, nothing else. Well, except things like, um CAT scans. That's space spinoff technology. Maybe oh, one or two people have been helped by CAT scans.
      Look at Heinlein's space spinoffs article, printed without permission but in in its entirety at http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2007/08/06/neil-tyson-on-exploring-space/ (under "Lucid Movement.")
      Then tell me no one's affected by space spinoff technology. And that was 1980.

    21. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Except that NASA wasn't the driver towards transistorization. The first product with an integrated circuit was the Minuteman missile, without doubt a war rocket rather than a science one.

    22. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Without shooting people into space, we'd never have known about how fast bone mass decreases within just a few weeks."

      And without throwing people off cliffs, we'll never know what happens to people who are thrown off cliffs. I'm sure you have point, but it's not obvious...

    23. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's all about fear. Most people have accepted the fact that they'll die sometime, probably due to disease, and so there's not a lot of public outcry about heart attacks

      On the other hand, terrorism terrorizes people, people get scared, and the government has to do something about it.

      Guess where our tax dollars go?

    24. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by Weedlekin · · Score: 1

      "Which is certainly true as far as it goes ... but neglects to mention that this advance was largely driven by demand from NASA."

      That's actually extremely debatable. It's certainly true that the on-board computer developed by MIT for the Apollo missions was unusual in being based on integrated circuits when it was being developed in the early 1960s, but the circuits it used already existed (albeit in an expensive low-volume form), and it was an obsolete design by the time of the first actual mission when compared to available commercial computer systems.

      NB: the oft-heard claim about the Apollo computers having microprocessors and solid-state memory is a myth, because their processors were built from sets of discrete ICs, and they used a conventional (for the time when they were being designed) magnetic core system.

      --
      I'm not going to change your sheets again, Mr. Hastings.
    25. Re:I was thinking about this the other day... by iamangry · · Score: 1

      One quick note: we're aerospace engineers, not doctors. Yell at them to get on the ball if you want that stuff fixed. One more quick note: if people want to have kids... then something has to kill other people off. Earth cannot support infinite people, maybe there should be a war on overpopulation instead.

  9. Robots in Space by Horar · · Score: 1, Interesting

    NASA should stick to what it's so good at doing: sending robots into space.

    We meat bags should stay on Earth where we belong.

    1. Re:Robots in Space by 4D6963 · · Score: 1

      NASA should stick to what it's so good at doing: sending robots into space.

      We meat bags should stay on Earth where we belong.

      But.. but.. shouldn't we make it our duty to live up to the expectations that grown people had as children to see people all over space in the 21st century? I can't be the only one who felt a great disturbance in my psyche, as if my inner child cried out "No men on the moon, no jetpacks and no flying cars in the future? What a rip-off!" and suddenly threw up a tantrum?

      --
      You just got troll'd!
    2. Re:Robots in Space by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      You go ahead and stay right there in front of your TV where you belong, and have a nice day.

      I'm going on a trip.

      See you later. Maybe.

    3. Re:Robots in Space by dedazo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I don't know if you said that sarcastically, but if you think about it, focusing on robotic spacecraft that can do more than just take readings might very well contribute to the advancement of robotic sciences. History shows us that progress in scientific fields comes about faster when there is a specific purpose, time pressure and money involved.

      I don't have a problem with manned spaceflight, on the contrary. But this might be a good side effect of trying to go all-automata. Not to mention cheaper/easier, since moving carbon-based sentient chimpanzees (also known as humans) through the voids of space requires ungodly amounts of resources.

      --
      Web2.0: I love when people Flickr my cuil and digg my boingboing until my google is reddit and I start to yahoo
    4. Re:Robots in Space by djp928 · · Score: 1

      Larry Niven said it best. "The dinosaurs went extinct because they didn't have a space program."

    5. Re:Robots in Space by Horar · · Score: 1

      Yes, you do that.

      Who knows, you could accomplish the space age equivalent of introducing syphilis to polynesia, or bring tobacco to civilisation.

      But I expect that all you're really capable of doing is tearing up the sand dunes in your SUV, shooting stuff with guns, and leaving your empty beer cans behind.

      So if you do go on a trip, don't come back.

    6. Re:Robots in Space by Rollgunner · · Score: 1

      Man is the best computer we can put aboard a spacecraft ...

      and the only one that can be mass produced with unskilled labor.

      - Wernher von Braun

    7. Re:Robots in Space by Leebert · · Score: 1

      NASA should stick to what it's so good at doing: sending robots into space.

      You do realize that NASA doesn't really do much of that? It's primarily the Applied Physics Laboratory (Johns Hopkins) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (Caltech) that do those things. They just hitch a ride on NASA funding and NASA rocketry.

  10. Re:Lesson 1 - Mod parent up :) by Shag · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This. I work in space science, think manned spaceflight is a wonderful thing, and look forward to it becoming increasingly a commercially available thing... but it's an extremely expensive way to accomplish most tasks, especially when it comes to accomplishing anything in the way of science.

    I also work around environmental policy, and strongly feel we'd be better off working on surviving on this planet, instead of ruining it, then going off looking for others to ruin. Put a few of those "best and brightest" brains to work on finding ways to meet the Millennium Development Goals, wouldja?

    --
    Village idiot in some extremely smart villages.
  11. A Vote with my wallet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    With Obama's plans to have the Federal Budget fully searchable a la Google, can't I just specify where I would like my tax dollars to be apportioned to?

    All of it should go to NASA please...

    1. Re:A Vote with my wallet by Horar · · Score: 1

      And none of it to the military.

      Don't despair, it can be done, as my friend Dave Keenan so ably demonstrated.

      http://users.bigpond.net.au/d.keenan/CO/index.htm

  12. ROI is a red herring. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I mean, it's great, but ultimately we will have to be sending people up there anyway. There is no way around it.

    We HAVE TO improve the technology for lifting people from this rock. Until such day as we can make a machine that is as individually intelligent, dexterous, decisive, and bold as a human being, we have no real alternative.

    And even if we do make such a machine, it would not necessarily be a good day.

    1. Re:ROI is a red herring. by rbanffy · · Score: 1

      "Until such day as we can make a machine that is as individually intelligent, dexterous, decisive, and bold as a human being, we have no real alternative."

      Let's only hope that, when we do, they will want us for pets. ;-)

      For when we do make a machine that is better than we are, we will not have made our servants, emissaries and explorers. We will have made our successors.

    2. Re:ROI is a red herring. by 2short · · Score: 4, Insightful


      "ultimately we will have to be sending people up there anyway. There is no way around it. "

      Except, you know, not doing it and learning more because we did it a smarter way.

      Here's an idea: what if we built a machine that was as dextrous as a human, and put the controls of that machine in the hands of an intelligent, decisive, and bold human... on Earth.

      And hey, while we're at it, we could design the machine to, just for example, move about the surface of mars for months on end with no need of air, food or a return journey.

      Human space exploration is wonderful. Some very smart people are doing a bang-up job exploring Mars right now. "Robotic" space exploration is a misnomer; it should be called "Smart and efficient human space exploration".

    3. Re:ROI is a red herring. by Amazing+Quantum+Man · · Score: 1

      Four Words.

      Speed of Light Latency.

      --
      Fascism starts when the efficiency of the government becomes more important than the rights of the people.
    4. Re:ROI is a red herring. by 2short · · Score: 1

      And? Are those words meant to somehow refute the fact that humans are exploring space by remotely controlling probes have been wildly more successful than humans exploring space by sending up other humans? If sending humans to explore space is such a great idea, why hasn't it worked so far?

    5. Re:ROI is a red herring. by Amazing+Quantum+Man · · Score: 2, Informative

      My point was that the "robots with human dexterity, controlled by a human" won't work at distances past the Moon.

      --
      Fascism starts when the efficiency of the government becomes more important than the rights of the people.
    6. Re:ROI is a red herring. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      and put the controls of that machine in the hands of an intelligent, decisive, and bold human... on Earth.

      Because after you get far enough away from earth, the communications between the human and the machine are very latent. Unless you open up a quantum gateway to send the signal through, in which case it makes more sence to just send the human.

    7. Re:ROI is a red herring. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      It hasn't worked so far because we haven't been doing it! Because it hasn't had enough political support, or (as a result) popular support, or funding.

    8. Re:ROI is a red herring. by 2short · · Score: 2, Insightful


      Of course we have been doing it. We regularly spend the entire cost of those Mars rover missions to put humans into low earth orbit for a week and see if they can keep their toilet functioning. Human space flight has orders of magnitude more funding than unmanned exploration; and squat to show for it.

      Is your point that a human on Mars would get more done than a human controlling a probe on Mars if we ignore the cost and effort of getting him there and keeping him alive? I'll agree, but I'm not sure how that's relevant here in the real world where getting him there is in fact part of the problem.

    9. Re:ROI is a red herring. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      That's kind of circular reasoning, isn't it?

      "It's not worth putting people on mars because getting them there is hard to do."

      I don't buy this argument. Other nations are starting to do these things, simply because the United States has not been. So you are saying it is too hard or expensive for us, but not for them?

      As for the statement that we haven't been doing it, I meant anything outside of Earth orbit. Obviously we have been keeping the space station manned.

    10. Re:ROI is a red herring. by 2short · · Score: 1


      And my point is that you are wrong. Sure, if you design the control system to just mimic the input of the human controller, ignoring the obvious latency issue, that won't work. But people who design space-exploration strategies without considering the basic engineering requirements of space exploration don't get jobs at NASA. (Though they do apparently post on Slashdot)

      Robots controlled by humans not only do work beyond the moon, they are doing so. Humans exploring space in person have vastly more resources, and squat to show for it. I jump to the stunning conclusion that sending humans is less cost effective. Because it has produced less effect. At much higher cost.

    11. Re:ROI is a red herring. by camperdave · · Score: 1

      NASA may not be the folks to do it. Right now NASA is working on the Ares program. It consists of two rockets: The Ares I and the Ares V. The Ares I is supposed to lift people into orbit, and the Ares V is supposed to lift cargo. NASA has this crew vehicle called Orion, which is meant to bring people to orbit, and back again. It sits atop the Ares I launcher. The thing is, the launcher is not powerful enough to get the Orion crew vehicle into orbit, let alone anywhere useful, like the International Space Station or Low Earth Orbit. So they've started trimming safety equipment and features to make the Orion lighter. The Ares rockets were supposed to be built with as much existing shuttle designs as possible. The Ares I is essentially an SRB with an extra segment, and a larger diameter. In other words, it cannot be made with the existing shuttle manufacturing facilities. Ditto with the Ares V. The fuel tanks are a larger diameter, the booster rockets are bigger, and the whole thing is so heavy, that they will need to rebuild the crawler, the launch platforms, etc. It may not even fit through the doors of the vehicle assembly building.

      The Direct Launcher is a much better platform. At it's core, it is the same as the shuttle launch system. It uses identical SRBs, almost identical main tanks. It uses proven engines, and it can be made flight ready in less time than the Ares I. It has enough power to lift the Orion vehicle, including all of its safety gear, to the ISS, or to LEO. In fact, it can lift the Orion, plus an additional 20 tonnes of supplies.

      I believe NASA is heading down the wrong road with the ARES program. It is definitely not the cheaper road. It is definitely not the safer road. It is a road that could set US manned spaceflight back by decades.

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
    12. Re:ROI is a red herring. by 2short · · Score: 1

      Um, no it's not circular. It's not worth putting people on Mars because everything we could learn by doing so can be learned much more efficiently.

      "'It's not worth putting people on mars because getting them there is hard to do.'

      I don't buy this argument."

      Then don't make it; I didn't. FYI, it is traditional, when using quotes, to put the other persons words inside.

      "So you are saying it is too hard or expensive for us, but not for them?"
      Again, no, I'm not saying that. Certainly we can explore Mars in a stupid, ridiculously inefficient way. I'm saying we shouldn't. I'm saying the same effort could yield better results if applied more intelligently. As evidenced by the much more modest efforts that are doing so right now.

      "As for the statement that we haven't been doing it, I meant anything outside of Earth orbit. Obviously we have been keeping the space station manned."

      Yes. Manned exploration, spending thousands of times as much money, has done nothing beyond lunar orbit, and nothing recent but keep the space station manned for no obvious purpose. That would be the crux of my argument right there.

    13. Re:ROI is a red herring. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well it's most likely that a direct presence of humans on other planet will become more efficient and will produce more results than robots only when permanent research outposts will have been established.

      The obvious advantage of the direct presence of human researchers on other planets is their initiative in their specific alien environment. One human mission to mars with sufficient time on the surface could produce much more (and more valuable) scientific results than one robotic mission thus justifing the higher costs.

      It remains to be seen whether costs per research result for human missions is greater than for robotic missions.

      Considering this it is probably a good thing to establish first a research outpost on the moon to examine how much humans can actually do there.

      One additional problem is that in both robotic and human missions the scientists who actually plan the experiments and know what to look for will remain on earth.

                 

    14. Re:ROI is a red herring. by 2short · · Score: 1


      "One human mission to mars with sufficient time on the surface could produce much more (and more valuable) scientific results than one robotic mission thus justifing the higher costs."

      Maybe. And a car costing a million dollars might get you across town faster than my $10 bicycle. That's the cost differential. Let's work minimum wage jobs and meet up at the bar after we each earn enough money to buy our respective vehicles and drive them there.

      "It remains to be seen whether costs per research result for human missions is greater than for robotic missions"

      No, it does not remain to be seen. It is abundantly clear.

    15. Re:ROI is a red herring. by dangitman · · Score: 1

      My point was that the "robots with human dexterity, controlled by a human" won't work at distances past the Moon.

      I don't understand your point about "human dexterity." What's the goal - to play golf on Mars or something? Wouldn't it be better to engineer a robot that has dexterity suited to the environment rather than to make it human-centric?

      --
      ... and then they built the supercollider.
    16. Re:ROI is a red herring. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      But you still argue against yourself.

      First you stated a while back (correctly), that the unmanned probes are much less expensive. But then you call for much more sophisticated automated equipment... and I am far from convinced that would be cheaper or "more efficient". If you want to put something up there that can do anything like a human being could, then that would also cost "thousands of times as much". Actually, neither would cost quite that much, but a machine or machines that could accomplish the same things as a manned mission, would cost as much as a manned mission! So far you have stated absolutely nothing that would cause me to think otherwise.

    17. Re:ROI is a red herring. by PMBjornerud · · Score: 1

      And? Are those words meant to somehow refute the fact that humans are exploring space by remotely controlling probes have been wildly more successful than humans exploring space by sending up other humans?

      The speed of light is a limiting factor on remote controlling over such distances. So yes, his "Speed of Light Latency" utterly, completely and definitely refutes any idea of a remote controlled, dexterous robot.

      --
      I lost my sig.
    18. Re:ROI is a red herring. by crndg · · Score: 2, Interesting

      With the mutual threats of anthropogenic and natural ecological disasters that could wipe out all life (or at least all human life) on earth, the elephant in the room is that we could face extinction if we don't expand beyond our birth-planet in time.

      But one question that nobody has been asking (with the possible exception of the writers and producers of Battlestar Galactica) remains: is humankind worth saving?

      If our descendants do manage to escape certain (eventual) doom on this world, will they just go to other worlds and wreak the same havoc on them? Or will we, in the process of expanding our knowledge and abilities toward the goal of colonization of other worlds, solve the problems we face here at home? Some other possibilities: 1) We won't make it in time. Humanity dies out. God rolls a new character and tries again. 2) Only those (pick at least one) smart, fast, strong, adaptable, short, hairy, radiation-resistant, or horny enough will succeed in colonizing space and other planets, and will create a new race quite different from humanity as we know it. 3) Human bodies will be deemed unacceptable for existence in space, and will be replaced with some other form (mechanical, bionic, cylon, who knows?) which will then colonize space and other worlds with yet another race very different from humanity. 4) None of the above.

    19. Re:ROI is a red herring. by 2short · · Score: 1

      "But you still argue against yourself."

      With some regularity, yes. But I do not intend to in this case.

      "But then you call for much more sophisticated automated equipment..."

      Ahh, I see... the "dextrous as a human" bit. I was trying to mirror the specs you were discussing in the post I replied to there, but point out you can save a lot of money if you can leave the (human) brains of the operation on Earth. I do not actually favor such a design. I would advocate designing systems that are, for example, 1/100th as capable as a human, and sending thousands of them.

      "If you want to put something up there that can do anything like a human being could, then that would also cost 'thousands of times as much'. Actually, neither would cost quite that much"

      It wouldn't cost quite that much!?!? WTF are you smoking? The cost of operating 2 rovers on Mars for 4 years has been roughly 800 million dollars. Divide the time by a thousand; think you can put a human on mars for 1/1000th the time (about 3 days) for 800 million? 800 million doesn't get a shuttle off the ground. There's no way a human mission won't cost 1000 times as much as one of those rovers. If you can do it for a million times as much, every cost-estimator at the notoriously optimistic NASA will be in shock. Keeping humans alive off of Earth is just fantastically costly.

      "a machine or machines that could accomplish the same things as a manned mission, would cost as much as a manned mission!"

      For God's sake why? It is often possible to do the same thing more cheaply by doing it a different way. This is one of those times.

      For that matter, based on the indisputable historical evidence, a human mission that can accomplish the same things as machines already have can't even be contemplated for a cost in the same ballpark.

    20. Re:ROI is a red herring. by 2short · · Score: 1

      "the elephant in the room is that we could face extinction if we don't expand beyond our birth-planet in time."

      I don't really see that as an elephant in the room; maybe a minor argument in favor of robotic probes, if anything. Based on my understanding of the unsuitability of other places in the solar system for supporting human life; and the difficulty of getting anywhere outside the solar system (which would probably be unsuitable too), "expanding beyond our birth-planet" is not a thing I expect to happen until the extreme far-future, if at all. If it ever happens, I don't expect anything learned about human space flight today will be remotely relevant; technology will have to be unrecognizably more advanced to even consider it. If anything, using robotic probes today, and hence learning more about building robots (and about Mars) will bring that expansion date closer faster than human space flight using todays tech.

      "But one question that nobody has been asking ... is humankind worth saving?"

      Yes. In my opinion, it is obvious that there can be no higher goal. Seriously, what consequence of humanity surviving could there be that you think would make me, a human, decide it was better if we didn't?

      "If our descendants do manage to escape certain (eventual) doom on this world, will they just go to other worlds and wreak the same havoc on them?"

      What do you mean by 'havoc'? Don't get me wrong, I'm as rabid an environmentalist you are likely to encounter, but the long-term survival of humanity isn't in opposition to those opinions, it's the reason. Wanting humanity to die out so they don't mess up the pristine universe is bass-ackwards. Supporting sentient life is what the universe is for.

    21. Re:ROI is a red herring. by crndg · · Score: 1

      Sure, supporting sentient life may be what the universe is for, but who says humanity qualifies?

      I'm only halfway baiting here. But maybe we were given this planet as a test. If we manage to avoid destroying it--or more importantly, ourselves--then we pass.

  13. The lesson learned is by Quila · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Don't fly around January-February.

    1. Re:The lesson learned is by 4D6963 · · Score: 1

      On the contrary, do fly in January! What are the odds that FOUR such incidents would take place in that month? /sarcastic logical fallacy

      --
      You just got troll'd!
  14. what's wrong with regular Sunday? by metamechanical · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Pardon my cynicism, but what the hell does the super bowl have to do with anything?

    --
    If I had a nickel for every time I had a nickel, I'd be richcursive!
    1. Re:what's wrong with regular Sunday? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ground control is hung over and bloated from too much beer and junk food?

    2. Re:what's wrong with regular Sunday? by morgan_greywolf · · Score: 1

      Apple's infamous "1984" commercial for the first Macintosh appeared on Super Bowl Sunday in 1984! What's wrong with you? Are you anti-Apple or something?

    3. Re:what's wrong with regular Sunday? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wardrobe malfunction vs Shuttle malfunction?

      Just a guess....

    4. Re:what's wrong with regular Sunday? by revoldub · · Score: 1

      Maybe it was just a reference for time.

  15. Oh! I've seen this show by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    4 8 15 16 23 42

  16. You don't understand much about it. by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 2, Informative

    Freeze-dried fruit? Hah. How about titanium tools and magnesium suitcases? Do you use any drill bits or blades with titanium or nitride cutters?

    Materials science is just one area that has been improved dramatically by the space program.

    Do you use anything with teflon in it? Wait... let me rephrase that: do you use much of anything that does NOT have teflon in it? As a coating or a slider or a bearing...

    This is barely the tip of the iceberg. If you think all the space program has brought you is freeze-dried fruit, then I respectfully suggest you pick up a book now and then and look into it a bit more deeply.

    1. Re:You don't understand much about it. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How about titanium tools and magnesium suitcases? Do you use any drill bits or blades with titanium or nitride cutters?

      I use titanium drill bits to break into your magnesium suitcases. Now who's the astronaut?

    2. Re:You don't understand much about it. by Weedlekin · · Score: 1

      "How about titanium tools and magnesium suitcases?"

      Titanium and magnesium were used to make light, hard, corrosion-free and non-magnetic metal items before anything made it into space. There were for example German aircraft from the first world war that used magnesium for parts of their airframes and /or engines, and the Soviets used titanium to make submarine pressure hulls in the 1950s.

      --
      I'm not going to change your sheets again, Mr. Hastings.
  17. Necessary losses by Locke2005 · · Score: 1

    Personally, I think they've been far too cautious. "As of 2007, in-flight accidents have killed 19 astronauts, training accidents have claimed 11 astronauts, and launchpad accidents have killed at least 71 ground personnel. About two percent of the manned launch/reentry attempts have killed their crew, with Soyuz and the Shuttle having almost the same death percentage rates... About five percent of the people that have been launched have died doing so..." Surprisingly enough, Soviet and American casualties are about the same. These people knew the risks they were taken; being the first to try out a new technology is always a risky proposition. Compared to human costs of building bridges, testing aircraft, even driving race cars, 101 deaths is a really small number. Heck, I'm willing to bet more people have died playing football than working for NASA -- yet nobody accuses football coaches of not being cautious enough. (That is, a higher number of total deaths, not a higher percentage.)

    --
    I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    1. Re:Necessary losses by fmfnavydoc · · Score: 1

      I would trade anything to fly on one mission...to the ISS, back to the Moon or to Mars. It's a natural progression of what Man does best...face new challenges, explore and broaden his/her knowledge of the world around them. The men and women that suit up and fly into space know the risks, but how many of them have backed out at the last minute? Exploring our solar system may be the key to our survival on Earth...and unlock the wonders of the universe in the process.

      --
      "PowerPoint Sucks!" Robert Gates, Secretary of Defense
  18. The Dream. by jedidiah · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Shed not a single tear for one who has lived the Dream.

    --
    A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
    1. Re:The Dream. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you think Christa McAuliffe might have done things differently had she known?

  19. Danger isn't the problem by Jabbrwokk · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The problem isn't that space exploration is dangerous - everyone knows that. The problem is that space exploration requires a lot of money for no return other than glory and prestige.

    The only good quote from that Esquire article:

    Space demands sack. In a country that couldn't figure out how to mortgage a suburban family home, Mars suddenly seemed a long way off.

    There's no cold war driving the shuttle program anymore, so it's over. And after the moon landing, and robotic probes sent to other planets, we all realized something - space is really fucking huge. It tales a long time to get anywhere, and costs a huge amount of money to send even a tiny amount of stuff out of this atmosphere. People hear about crazy plans to send people to Mars and ask "Why bother?" I tend to agree with them.

    On the other hand, the space station project is something that makes sense. It's a baby step, it's something that (ideally) allows all interested countries with space agencies and some cash to participate and could someday evolve into a shipyard where exploration probes - and even manned craft - could be built and launched without having to burn a lot of rocket fuel escaping earth's gravity. Yeah, I've probably been watching too much Star Trek. But if the public could be made to understand the value of this program maybe interest would revive in space again.

    The age of Asimovian idealism is over. It's the Pragmatic Age. If people can see the value of investing in space, they'll do it. But no one is buying dreams anymore.

    1. Re:Danger isn't the problem by ThreeE · · Score: 0, Troll

      "But if the public could be made to understand the value of this program maybe interest would revive in space again. "

      Please "make" me understand the value of this program.

    2. Re:Danger isn't the problem by ShieldW0lf · · Score: 3, Interesting

      This should be the number one objective of ALL space programs on earth:

      http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/070919_sps_airforce.html

      If it's going to scale out, it should have solar energy collectors in a solar orbit. They should beam the energy to one of three geostationary satellite floating above the Earth. Those satellites should beam the energy to receiving stations in Brazil, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia, at which point they should be fed into the global power grid.

      This would allow us to increase production for hundreds of generations of mankind, simply by adding additional solar energy collectors.

      It won't be easy, but it only has to be done once.

      --
      -1 Uncomfortable Truth
    3. Re:Danger isn't the problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Direction is the problem. Farm some asteroids and all of a sudden it makes economic sense. I wish I could credit an article I read last year that valued some asteroids at hundreds of trillions.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonization_of_the_asteroids

    4. Re:Danger isn't the problem by Big+Smirk · · Score: 2, Insightful

      How does a 70" Plasma TV fit into a 'Pragmatic Age'

      Whittle it down and we all should either be working on food production or health care. Anything else would be less than Pragmatic. I suppose you could argue that we should also work on entertainment for those in the health care and food production business.

      However, I believe there is a need to expand the knowledge of mankind. This keeps us away from subsistence living and gives us a purpose beyond mere existence.

      Besides, all that money spent on NASA is pretty much put into the US economy. Beats building yet another ditch (or for that matter roads).

      --
      TODO: create/find/steal funny sig.
    5. Re:Danger isn't the problem by FleaPlus · · Score: 2, Interesting

      This quote from a piece by aerospace engineer Rand Simberg from a couple years ago lays out the issue well, I think:

      http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=15913

      Which really gets to the point of the matter. Our national reaction to the loss of a shuttle crew, viewed by the proverbial anthropologistâ(TM)s Martian (or perhaps better yet, a Vulcan), would seem irrational. After all, we risk, and lose, people in all kinds of endeavors, every day. We send soldiers out to brave IEDs and RPGs in Iraq. We watch firefighters go into burning buildings. Even in more mundane, relatively safe activities, people die â" in mines, in construction, in commercial fishing. Why is it that we get so upset when we lose astronauts, who are ostensibly exploring the final frontier, arguably as dangerous a job as they come? One Internet wag has noted that, âoe...to judge by the fuss that gets made when a few of them die, astronauts clearly are priceless national assets â" exactly the sort of people you should not be risking in an experimental-class vehicle.â

      What upset people so much about the deaths in Columbia, I think, was not that they died, but that they died in such a seemingly trivial yet expensive pursuit. They werenâ(TM)t exploring the universeâ"they were boring a multi-hundred-thousand-mile-long hole in the vacuum a couple hundred miles above the planet, with childrenâ(TM)s science-fair experiments. We were upset because space isnâ(TM)t important, and we considered the astronautsâ(TM) lives more important than the mission. If they had been exploring another hostile, alien planet, and died, we would have been saddened, but not shocked â" it happens in the movies all the time. If they had been on a mission to divert an asteroid, preventing it from hitting the planet (a la the movie Armageddon, albeit with more correspondence to the reality of physics), we would have mourned, but also been inured to their loss as true national heroes in the service of their country (and planet). It would be recognized that what they were doing was of national importance, just as is the job of every soldier and Marine in Iraq and Afghanistan.

      What those who criticize Dr. Griffinâ(TM)s decision to move forward with the launch are implicitly saying is that the astronautsâ(TM) lives, and the vehicle, arenâ(TM)t worth the mission, and that they have, in fact, infinite value relative to it. Every month that we delay the return to flight costs hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars, with an army of shuttle technicians sitting around, their skills getting rusty (which brings its own risks). Moreover, no matter how much more time and money is spent in trying to reduce the risk, âoesafeâ will always be a relative, not an absolute term. If completing the station, if finishing this particular mission, is worth anything, itâ(TM)s worth doing sooner, rather than later, so we can sooner free up the resources for more adventurous activities that are (or at least should be) perceived as being worth the risk of life. Paul Dietz, a frequent commenter to my blog, has noted that if we really wanted to indicate national seriousness about opening up the space frontier, we would, starting right now, with great fanfare, set up a dedicated national cemetery for those who would be expected to lose their lives in that long-term endeavor, and provide it with lots of acreage.

      Those who fear to risk the lives of willing, volunteer astronauts are really saying that there is nothing to be done in space that is worth the risk. This is, of course, a symptom of the fact that even with the announcement of the presidentâ(TM)s new policy two and a half years ago, we still have never really had a national debate, or decided what weâ(TM)re trying to accomplish on the high frontier. Until we do, decisions will continue to be driven by pork, politics, and emotion that have little to do with actual

    6. Re:Danger isn't the problem by jellomizer · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The value is pride. Oddly enough it is very difficult to tie to a monetary figure.
      It has been so long since we have done something so ambitious that the people of the world to have anything to feel proud of. All of our achievements have been replaced by Guilt (Global Warming, Cancer Causing everything). Even our previous achievements are being questioned and disbelieved (moon landing hoax). We are on the sliding slope away from progress. Much like the fall of the Roman Empire people abandoned everything Roman, including bathing. Now we are abandoning everything again slowly, A rise in evangelical/extremest religious beliefs who completely dismiss science as evil. Focus towards the practical and away from beauty, the quick fix vs. the long term goal.

      Why was there a boom in American science education during the space race, because everyone wanted to go to the moon too. However they couldn't but they learned science and math and created a modern nation. But these people are retiring and not being replaced. The moon is once again to far and distant for us, Mars is a place where robots roam, and were we can make fun the remaining scientist when they fail.

      We fight about freaking License restrictions of software vs. technical advantages and new approaches.

      We need man space flights so we can put a human face on humanity, and give us a goal for the future.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    7. Re:Danger isn't the problem by JWman · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It is truly sad that the space program is not at the forefront anymore. Lets consider the cost...
      NASA 2008 Budget: $17.318 Billion
      The federal government throws this amount of money around all of the time. Heck, lately it's almost a rounding error with all of the spending going on. To put this in perspective, $8 billion dollars is currently earmarked for "state and tribal assistance grants" in the new stimulus package coming out. (see this spreadsheet ).

      What are the gains? When the Apollo program was running it caught the public's fascination. It made an entire generation of kids that wanted to be astronauts. It made "rocket scientist" become part of our nomenclature and synonymous with "really smart guy". And most importantly, it spurred an interest in engineering and the "hard" sciences (math, physics, chemistry). The knee-jerk response of today's youth is that these subjects are too hard and not fun enough. And so the US is losing engineers and knowledge workers and replacing them with massage therapists . How many people in 1965 thought that the best job in the world would be to work at NASA? How many think that now? (or for that matter, how many think that ANY engineering job would be ideal for them?)

      In addition to inspiring the public to idolize something besides the latest Hollywood tabloid, the space program made numerous technological and engineering breakthroughs that we are still benefiting from tremendously today. The difficulties of doing even simple things under the constraints of space exploration force tremendous ingenuity and resourcefulness that the nation then benefits from as a whole.

    8. Re:Danger isn't the problem by ThreeE · · Score: 0

      Pure bullshit.

      Ignore for the moment the fact that you want to do all these things with other people's money.

      - There are plenty of ambitious things going on being paid for by the people doing them.
      - Anyone who doesn't believe we've been to the moon is an idiot.
      - I have no idea how to translate your paragraph on education. Are you saying you can't get a science or engineering degree without a space station?
      - Your last sentence, well, wtf?

    9. Re:Danger isn't the problem by durrr · · Score: 3, Interesting

      As with any new innovations you can't expect to see the full extent of what it offers immideatly.

      The first electric generator gave few clues to the enormous ones powered by exotic fuels we have nowdays that supply entire nations with electricity around the clock. The electric generator however was a very simple construct that you could improve on your own provided a small capital.
      Space programs on the other hand are enormous projects requiring equally enormous capital investments with a very long period before you see any real money from it. Right now it's mainly sattelites that make up commercial money in space, but there is a definite interest in space. The price tag is a bit prohibitive but as long as spacetravel is in demand for someone we'll keep up improving it.

      In the end however it may be too early to pump in wast amounts of money in the program as the general technology level can't really supply what would be needed for a properly extensive space program.

    10. Re:Danger isn't the problem by adamjgp · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The problem isn't that space exploration is dangerous - everyone knows that. The problem is that space exploration requires a lot of money for no return other than glory and prestige.

      Please don't forget that there have been many advances in technology coming from the space exploration programs. Wireless communication, propulsion, etc. have been advanced by the field. If it weren't for space travel our world wouldn't be as technologically advanced as it is.

      You're only looking at the main benefit of space travel in your statement, completely ignoring the spillover benefits of advanced technology.

    11. Re:Danger isn't the problem by Jabbrwokk · · Score: 1

      Thank you for picking up on my poorly-worded sentence. Your input is truly valued, even if it's delivered in an asinine, trolling manner.

      What I should have said was "if the public could be persuaded of the long-term value of this program."

      And no, I won't persuade you. That's the job of the space agency in whatever country you're from.

    12. Re:Danger isn't the problem by Jabbrwokk · · Score: 1

      If it weren't for space travel our world wouldn't be as technologically advanced as it is.

      Maybe, maybe not. Maybe we would have other technological advancements, we don't have the ability to peer into alternative universes to compare.

      You're only looking at the main benefit of space travel in your statement, completely ignoring the spillover benefits of advanced technology.

      Fair comment, but I didn't ignore it, I just didn't think of that.

      I still think the prime motivator for space exploration was cold war expansionism, and that's how governments sold it to people - 'we've got to get up there before the Reds!' There's no "sales campaign" today with that kind of appeal to convince people of the value of space exploration.

    13. Re:Danger isn't the problem by Jabbrwokk · · Score: 1

      The pragmatic age is coming, when people realize they are in debt up to their eyeballs and bring back those 70-inch TVs they bought on credit.

      And you're kind of making a Reductio ad absurdum argument. No need to be combative, I agree 100 per cent with your premise.

    14. Re:Danger isn't the problem by aeson25 · · Score: 1

      "for no return other than glory and prestige." I wouldn't say that's entirely true: http://science.howstuffworks.com/ten-nasa-inventions1.htm http://spaceplace.nasa.gov/en/kids/spinoffs2.shtml Some of these I would say were driven by NASA, but not necessarily invented.

    15. Re:Danger isn't the problem by flyingsquid · · Score: 2, Insightful
      It's important that a society continually challenge itself with ambitious, audacious projects. But is manned space flight really the best way to do that anymore? The first manned flight occurred almost 50 years ago, in 1961. The first moon landing took place in 1969, and the first space station, Salyut, was in orbit in 1971. Since the median age of the American populace is 36.6 years, that means that more than half of the American population was born after 1972. Think about that for a second.

      Over half of the American population was born after manned flights had become fairly routine, after men had walked on the moon, and after the first space stations were launched. Many more were too young to remember when Neil Armstrong uttered his famous "That's one small step" speech. So most of America has grown up in an environment where spaceflight is a given, an accepted fact. Shuttle missions, space stations, even another moon walk... none of these are going to inspire America, any more than it would to build a giant clipper ship, a trans-continental railroad, or to attempt a solo flight across the Atlantic.

      For the public to get behind a manned space program in a serious way, that program has to push the frontiers in some way. It's got to do something that hasn't already been done 40 or 50 years ago.

    16. Re:Danger isn't the problem by ThreeE · · Score: 0

      It really wasn't intended to be a troll. You said that the ISS made sense -- in what way? It's an overpriced, under-performing albatross around American (and some other countries') taxpayers' necks.

    17. Re:Danger isn't the problem by dontmakemethink · · Score: 1

      Two unfortunate words: space debris.

      "Tiny rocks, paint flecks and other fragments of junk whizzing around the Earth pose the greatest threat to the shuttles and the astronauts on board, according to the preliminary results of a new NASA risk study."

      I can't see solar panels of the SPS magnitude being as maintenance-free as you suggest.

      --

      War as we knew it was obsolete
      Nothing could beat complete denial
      - Emily Haines
    18. Re:Danger isn't the problem by dontmakemethink · · Score: 1

      How does a 70" Plasma TV fit into a 'Pragmatic Age'

      Sideways?

      --

      War as we knew it was obsolete
      Nothing could beat complete denial
      - Emily Haines
    19. Re:Danger isn't the problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We have to get up into space and defend out space boarders before Al Queda and other terrorist groups win. Right now Bin Laden and others are on the run to Mars and we need to make sure they don't expand their terrorcell in the safe haven that Mars has provided for these evil-doers. We need to launch a full scale invasion of Mars and keep democracy safe for all sorts of dry ice, dust storms, and craters that desire democracy.

    20. Re:Danger isn't the problem by fatboy · · Score: 1

      Two more unfortunate words: Path Loss

      --
      --fatboy
    21. Re:Danger isn't the problem by MobileTatsu-NJG · · Score: 1

      Maybe we would have other technological advancements, we don't have the ability to peer into alternative universes to compare.

      Unless NASA scared off an alien ship that was going to deliver technology to us, it's a lot stronger than 'maybe'.

      --

      "I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)

    22. Re:Danger isn't the problem by Graymalkin · · Score: 1

      This diagram might help. See the part marked LEO? That's where most larger bits of man-made debris are. The prime location for an SPS design would be in a geostationary orbit which is many thousands of miles above most space junk.

      --
      I'm a loner Dottie, a Rebel.
    23. Re:Danger isn't the problem by quanticle · · Score: 1

      Those satellites should beam the energy to receiving stations in Brazil, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia, at which point they should be fed into the global power grid.

      Wouldn't we need to build a global power grid first? Secondly, why should we entrust our energy infrastructure to a set of countries that aren't exactly known for their political stability and lack of corruption? Third, even if these countries could be forcibly given non-corrupt governments, is it really a good idea to entrust only three countries with something that the rest of the world depends on? Wouldn't that just lead to another cartel, just like OPEC?

      Methinks your brilliant plan hasn't been fully thought out.

      --
      We all know what to do, but we don't know how to get re-elected once we have done it
    24. Re:Danger isn't the problem by dangitman · · Score: 1

      Even our previous achievements are being questioned and disbelieved (moon landing hoax).

      Come on, only a bunch of fringe fanatics seriously believe that.

      We are on the sliding slope away from progress.

      I don't think so. Open Source is on the rise, and people have greater access to technology than ever before.

      A rise in evangelical/extremest religious beliefs who completely dismiss science as evil.

      Those people have always been around. We're still making small steps in social progress, and plenty of people don't give a shit about religion.

      What I find most ironic about your post is that you decry the "doomed" attitude in the first part (global warming etc) - but then you follow it up with an even more extreme "sky is falling" appeal in the second part.

      We need man space flights so we can put a human face on humanity, and give us a goal for the future.

      Doesn't global warming also do the same thing? It gives us a goal, and that goal is explicitly about preserving humanity. It also feeds research and science.

      --
      ... and then they built the supercollider.
    25. Re:Danger isn't the problem by PPH · · Score: 1

      Those satellites should beam the energy to receiving stations in Brazil, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia, at which point they should be fed into the global power grid.

      Or a receiving station in Ukraine, where it could be fed into the European grid.

      Oh, crap. Where did it all go?

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
    26. Re:Danger isn't the problem by durrr · · Score: 1

      You'll get al gore on your ass for this one. By routing extraterrestial solar energy back to earth you're definitely contributing to global warming.

      Of course, the same applies to nuclear energy too and no one seems to care. And lets not forget that once solar panels absorb more light than the surrounding terrain they also contribute.

    27. Re:Danger isn't the problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Anyone who doesn't believe we've been to the moon is an idiot.

      If you actually read the parent post, you'll find he agrees.

      Are you saying you can't get a science or engineering degree without a space station?

      There's nothing in there to supoort that assertion. it's pretty obvious what he's saying - that the space race made science and technology cool and attracted kids to study them. Reading comprehension not your strong point, it seems.

    28. Re:Danger isn't the problem by ShieldW0lf · · Score: 1

      Wouldn't we need to build a global power grid first? Secondly, why should we entrust our energy infrastructure to a set of countries that aren't exactly known for their political stability and lack of corruption?

      We should place them there because you can't put a geostationary satellite anywhere but over the equator. We're talking about a global energy infrastructure, the petty politics of mankind are an obstacle that we will deal with because the rewards are great enough to justify it.

      --
      -1 Uncomfortable Truth
    29. Re:Danger isn't the problem by ShieldW0lf · · Score: 1

      I can't see solar panels of the SPS magnitude being as maintenance-free as you suggest.

      Never meant to imply that maintenance would not be required, just that once you have a working process, you can re-implement the process indefinitely.

      --
      -1 Uncomfortable Truth
    30. Re:Danger isn't the problem by ThreeE · · Score: 0

      "Why was there a boom in American science education during the space race, because everyone wanted to go to the moon too. However they couldn't but they learned science and math and created a modern nation. But these people are retiring and not being replaced. The moon is once again to far and distant for us, Mars is a place where robots roam, and were we can make fun the remaining scientist when they fail."

      Yeah, you are right. I can't comprehend this.

    31. Re:Danger isn't the problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The age of Asimovian idealism is over. It's the Pragmatic Age. If people can see the value of investing in space, they'll do it. But no one is buying dreams anymore.

      Dreamers....ASSEMBLE!

    32. Re:Danger isn't the problem by phlinn · · Score: 1

      It required some interpretation, and different punction makes it clearer. "Why was there a boom in American science education during the space race? Because everyone wanted to go to the moon too."

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    33. Re:Danger isn't the problem by rgarbacz · · Score: 1

      Even though the men space exploration is expensive, in my opinion it inspires others to follow, and even though it does not make money directly the mankind benefits in long term, maybe even to the extent of survival.

      Usually it is so that the big steps are followed with small steps. Non of the big discoverers was a protectionist, if they were they would discover nothing, they would end up dreaming.

      Besides the inspiration, the scientific return is enormous. Machines can work for a fraction of the costs, but time needed is much longer and the machine flexibility is still far from the human abilities - a machine do an excellent job, but should be followed by humans (if possible).

      I do not think that it is possible to solve domestic problems by suppressing the exploration. And I do not think that waiting for a big ROI in cash will lead us anywhere. The world WAS pushed forward by the dreamers (well also by the fear).

      The sad side of the story is that the estimated $55*10^9 of Mars Direct (I agree - it is optimistic) we consider enormous, but we can spend easily $1*10^9 for 2 hours of often poor entertainment, which fades away in a few days. Not mentioning the recent ~ $1*10^12 reward for the poor management.
      Someone has already mentioned the whole generations of scientist and engineers around the world inspired by the Gagarin's achievements or the Apollo space program.

      I do not think that flying around the Earth in a long term will benefit in anything. The technologies needed to explore the Solar System can only be created by facing a big goal.

      It is also good to keep in mind that the mass extinctions happen regularly - it is not "if", but "when". The Earth is a wonderful place to live, but will not be so forever (also largely thanks to our frivolous consumption), and it is better to be prepared to survive than to leave behind several frozen metal boxes facing the Earth on the red sand dunes.

    34. Re:Danger isn't the problem by iamangry · · Score: 1

      Yeah there's a big problem with this, and its that you would have to really know where your satellite solar beam is pointing. And unlike laser communications, where missing means a lost message and at most someone's eye put out, with this you could be talking about delivering lethal levels of energy to lots of living things if you lose proper attitude/someone hacks it. Orbital debris would not be a significant problem as most man made debris is concentrated in LEO and GEO. Placing your collectors in a 60000km orbit would keep them fairly safe, though there would still be a lifetime due to the ultimate degradation of solar cells. And even good lasers are still very power inefficient, so if you collect 1 GW of power from 10 billion dollars of collectors (you do have to launch them up there, and that is expensive), by the time you've beamed twice and gone through atmosphere you might be talking about only 50MW of power. Much easier to just put solar panels on house roofs.

  20. Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by Todd+Knarr · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This planet, any planet, has finite resources. No matter what we do, no matter how many alternatives we go through or how well we conserve, sooner or later we'll exhaust them. It's merely a question of how long it'll take to do so. Which means in the long term there are exactly two paths: get off this single planet, or perish. Personally I don't like option #2, and I'd like to get option #1 underway while we have the luxuries of time and resources, not wait until it's a crash program under a short deadline with limited resources.

    From a practical standpoint, two things. First, opening new frontiers has never been unprofitable. It's expensive opening them up, but every one we've opened up has yielded an ROI any businessman would give up several major organs for. It's rarely immediately obvious what the rewards will be, looking back at history no major exploration ever turned up what they were looking for, but consistently the rewards are more than high enough to justify the cost. I doubt space will be different, and the spoils will go to he who's there first with the most. Second, high ground. Any military man will tell you that he who controls the high ground controls the battlefield. In ancient days the high ground was a hill so your archers could shoot down at the enemy. Today it's the airspace over the battlefield, so your aircraft can bomb the enemy without being distracted by enemy fighters. Orbit's a pretty serious high ground. Want an example? Take a look at Meteor Crater in Arizona. That was a chunk of rock coming in ballistic. Now, imagine that crater overlaid on Los Angeles, or Chicago, or Washington DC. Or all of them. Rocks are plentiful, getting them onto the right path is fairly straightforward and cheap. And shooting back up the gravity well is hideously expensive.

    1. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by marco.antonio.costa · · Score: 1

      Check out the law of conservation of matter before spewing "sooner or later we'll exaust them (our resources)".

      Other than that I'm fully in agreement with you as to that we NEED to get off this rock, since just one planet makes for lousy redundancy. Oh, and I'd have this left to private enterprise instead of government agencies.

      --
      Send your spendthrift head of state this
    2. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 1

      What resources do you think we need? Resources are made of two things: energy and matter. Energy is currently the most pressing problem, but solutions to long term energy supplies don't generally involve space.

      At the end of the day, there are fewer than 100 chemical elements in the universe. Most of those we heavily use are available in huge quantities right here on earth. (In various bulk minerals if not in their traditional ores.) Before anybody makes any big plans, they need to enumerate exactly *which* elements are going to run out here, why they can't be replaced with some other material (including new developments like nanotechnologies), where they can be found elsewhere in the solar system in suitable quantities, and how they will be retrieved.

    3. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by Chabo · · Score: 1

      This planet, any planet, has finite resources. No matter what we do, no matter how many alternatives we go through or how well we conserve, sooner or later we'll exhaust them.

      Earth that was could no longer sustain our numbers, we were so many. We found a new solar system, dozens of planets and hundreds of moons. Each one terraformed, a process taking decades, to support human life, to be new Earths. The Central Planets formed the Alliance. Ruled by an interplanetary parliament, the Alliance was a beacon of civilization. The savage outer planets were not so enlightened and refused Alliance control. The war was devastating, but the Alliance's victory over the Independents ensured a safer universe. And now everyone can enjoy the comfort and enlightenment of our civilization.

      --
      Convert FLACs to a portable format with FlacSquisher
    4. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by icebrain · · Score: 1

      Most of the matter might still be there, but if it's not in a usable form, it won't do you much good.

      Private enterprise will never spark the initial push to interplanetary/interstellar colonization, at least not for a very long time. The required fiscal and temporal commitment is staggering, and it will take many, many years to break even, much less turn a regular profit. No venture capitalist or stockholder will invest in a company that might not even give returns to his great-grandchildren.

      I would love it if such things could be privately done. But I think if we're going to have any hope of seeing such a program even begin within our lifetimes, it will have to be funded by governments, as only they have enough resources to do so. Call it a jobs program, if you must--it'll boost the economy and math/science education :)

      PS: An interesting novel on the subject is Firestar, I believe by Michael Flynn.

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    5. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by marco.antonio.costa · · Score: 1
      --
      Send your spendthrift head of state this
    6. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by icebrain · · Score: 1

      What resources do you think we need?

      Space. As in, there is only a finite amount of room available on earth. As the population goes up, and we get cooler stuff, it all needs to go somewhere. People tend to get antsy and rather irritable when packed in with many other people in a small space; a really overcrowded planet seems to be asking for trouble.

      You can delay the problem somewhat if you get really good at miniaturization of machinery and people. Maybe start selectively breeding midgets to carry on the human race?

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    7. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Check out the law of conservation of matter before spewing "sooner or later we'll exaust them (our resources)".

      The GP isn't talking about annihilating the atoms that make up the resources. In practical terms, a resource is exhausted when it is completely used and remains unavailable for reuse or recyling. For example, the iron atoms in the steel structure of a skyscraper does not cease to exist, but it can't simultaneously continue to server that function and be used to build a car. If it could, that would be a violation of conservation of matter! Even with 100% recycling on a molecular level (theoretically possible, but impractical for the forseeable future due to the massive energy requirements), a fixed resource will be exhausted if the demand only increases with time. So unless everyone on Earth agrees to accept eventual diminishing quality of life, or there is draconian population control (voluntary or involuntary), the demand for all resources will increase over-time. Neither of these seems possible on a global scale, especially without some strict authortarianism system to enforce it.

      On the otherhand, not only will the development of the solar system yeild more resources it can also function as a "safety value". It woud bleed-off excess population making a stable global population easier to maintain without resorting to extreme forms of coercion. Let me be clear, for this to actually work we (the population of the entire planet) will still need to adopt a much clear and more environmentally sustainable lifestyle. However, the development of space will allow that lifestyle to be closer to that currently enjoyed in by most of the developed.

    8. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by Bastard+of+Subhumani · · Score: 1

      So what you're saying is we can never run out of oil, because after it's burned all the carbon and hydrogen atoms still exist in the exhaust gases?

      --
      Only three things are certain; death, taxes, and apocryphal quotations - Ben Franklin.
    9. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 1

      People tend to get antsy and rather irritable when packed in with many other people in a small space; a really overcrowded planet seems to be asking for trouble.

      This would only be a problem assuming continued exponential population growth. In that case, the only other remotely habitable real estate in the solar system, the Moon and Mars, would only postpone the problem for a couple of decades while exponential growth overwhelmed their small surface areas, too.

      Not to mention that due to deadly radiation, the only way to survive on those bodies would be to hovel in caves. Which sounds to me like putting a lot of people in a small space, so now you'd have entire planets of irritable, pasty skinned, people clamoring for trace amounts of available water.

      To me it seems a lot simpler to just stabilize the population levels here on earth.

    10. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by icebrain · · Score: 1

      SpaceX isn't breaking ground or going new places. Were they the first ones to build an orbital launch vehicle, I'd concede the point. But that's not the case.

      Mankind has been launching rockets (in some form) for several centuries. Modern launch vehicles are descended from military weapons (V-2, Atlas, Titan, R-7, etc), and later government-funded vehicles designed made to government specifications (Saturn V, Proton, etc). We (collectively) already know how to build rockets in a general sense.

      Further, the market for space exploration started from government programs like warhead-lobbing and political one-upmanship. Only after space access was possible did commercial entities begin developing uses for it, as the cost was previously too high.

      It's only within the last few years that the technology and market have both been in reach of a private company.

      SpaceX is the first company to build an original, successful launch vehicle entirely from private funds. Everything they're doing has already been done, they're just doing it cheaper and on their own checkbook.

      Don't get me wrong, I'm not a huge government fan. But let's not kid ourselves thinking that the private sector will just step in and get us off earth as soon. Barring interruption, it will happen eventually. But I'm not sure we can afford to wait.

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    11. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by gregbot9000 · · Score: 1

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_law_of_thermodynamics
      I guess they won't exhaust them, they just will be in a form that can't be used.

    12. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by marco.antonio.costa · · Score: 1

      Good point. But I do disagree with you on two counts.

      Firstly, population does not increase on its own, but only increases in production allow for this growth. To argue otherwise is to say that infant mortality will be at 0% even in the absence of food, shelter, medical care and sanitation. The fact that world population growth is declining and the biggest population booms were after periods of war (what is it good for?) or during Industrial Revolution-like times when productivity was steadily increasing.

      Secondly, when demand increases but the supply remains unchanged prices go up, making sure that resources in limited supply will go to those who value it highest, i.e. whether there is a bigger demand (profit motive) for cars or skyscrapers to be made, and at the same time providing a big profit incentive for competitors to enter the market and offer lower prices, whether by devising substitute materials or more efficient methods of recycling on a molecular level. ;-)

      Therefore, the price system will still work whereas draconian population controls or authoritarian systems are bound to fail.

      --
      Send your spendthrift head of state this
    13. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by gregbot9000 · · Score: 1

      Private enterprise will never spark the initial push to interplanetary/interstellar colonization

      That's because privet enterprise isn't staffed with idiots, who after having spent 9/10 of their resources escaping a steep gravity well aren't going to go back down another. the future of space is in the asteroids with robots, not on planets with humans.
      Government doesn't have the resources they have the power to take them from you. If the government decides to "create jobs" in a non profitable industry all that is happening is society is being impoverished for the benefit of a few people.
      Also there are several very rich people interested in resource's from space since one small Near Earth Object has roughly 15 trillion dollars worth of high grade ore.

    14. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by marco.antonio.costa · · Score: 1

      I'm saying is, we'll never run out of _energy_, because as oil becomes scarce it will be so expensive to burn it, that alternatives will become profitable by comparison. Supply and demand. Always works.

      Actually I dare say that were it not for governmental restrictions on nuclear generation and privileges afforded to US companies, oil would ALREADY be displaced by cleaner and more efficient technologies.

      --
      Send your spendthrift head of state this
    15. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by djp928 · · Score: 1

      No, "population growth" does not assume exponential growth. What makes you think there are no other options besides exponential growth and no growth at all?

    16. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      but only increases in production allow for this growth. To argue otherwise is to say that infant mortality will be at 0% even in the absence of food, shelter, medical care and sanitation.

      Bullshit. Worst non sequitur ever.

    17. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by Bastard+of+Subhumani · · Score: 1

      because as oil becomes scarce it will be so expensive to burn it, that alternatives will become profitable by comparison.

      Even the alternatives don't exist in infinite quantites, just waiting around to be used.

      Supply and demand. Always works.

      Supply and demand is about prices. It doesn't mean that there always will be a supply. If I'm wrong, tell me the current spot price for a perpetual motion machine or a breeding pair of mules.

      --
      Only three things are certain; death, taxes, and apocryphal quotations - Ben Franklin.
    18. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by cunniff · · Score: 1

      Linear growth is theoretically possible, of course, but it means that each generation has fewer "rights" than the previous one (if you include "average number of children per person" as a "right")

    19. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Firstly, population does not increase on its own, but only increases in production allow for this growth. To argue otherwise is to say that infant mortality will be at 0% even in the absence of food, shelter, medical care and sanitation. The fact that world population growth is declining and the biggest population booms were after periods of war (what is it good for?) or during Industrial Revolution-like times when productivity was steadily increasing.

      Remember my (yes this is the same AC) point is that without the development of our solar system, the only viable options are reduction in quality of life (which would include food, shelter, medical care and sanitation), or hard limits to the population. As unused resources dwindle the ability to increase or even maintain a decent level of the aspects of quality of life will decrease. One result could be higher infant mortality, but if as a species human beings couldn't survive brutally unpleasant living conditions than slashdotters currently enjoy; we wouldn't be having this discussion? Also, to clarify I was refering to a reduction in the the mean quality of life of the global population, as circumstances will probably allow a priveleged few to lead lives much better than the bulk of humanity. Yet even without the prospect of upward mobility, this wealthy majority must eventually make hard choices, they just get the luxuary of defering it a little longer.

      However, I can admit that a combination of both of the unpleasant alternatives are just as likely as one or the other. The only real change is that the population control would be a reduced quality of life imposed not by authoritarian rule but instead by results of applied of physics on a closed system. Either way, I still wouldn't wish that future on anyone, especially when I think it can be avoided entirely with the proper research and development programs.

      Secondly, when demand increases but the supply remains unchanged prices go up, making sure that resources in limited supply will go to those who value it highest, i.e. whether there is a bigger demand (profit motive) for cars or skyscrapers to be made, and at the same time providing a big profit incentive for competitors to enter the market and offer lower prices, whether by devising substitute materials or more efficient methods of recycling on a molecular level. ;-)

      However, unless one of the basic underpinings of our current science is wrong (hint: the one you linked an article about), no form of recycling will ever have better than 100% yeild (which I addressed already). Furthermore, no amount of market forces will cause the energy required to reduce to zero. If we restrict ourselves to LEO and below, economics really does become purely zero-sum game, and no amount of faith in any flavor of economics will change that result.

    20. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by Sparklepony · · Score: 1

      For purposes of argument, sure, let's say that's all true. There's lots of quibbling that can be done over recycling and such but one way or another there's lots of additional resources out in space. Why do we need actual living breathing humans in space to get access to those resources? Robots have done wonders for deep space exploration, there's no fundamental reason why they couldn't also be used for deep space exploitation. Once we've landed a nice big automated robotic factory/mining complex on the Moon we can have it go ahead and build us a giant dome to live in if we like. In the case of someplace like Mars there's the additional concern of contamination of potential native life to consider. If you send humans there's no way they're going to avoid shedding all sorts of bacteria and other grue while they explore the place, with robots it's easier to sterilize them and keep them sterile. I'm not raising that issue out of some fundamental need to keep space "pristine", I'm more concerned about making sure we get all the data we can get out of those environments.

    21. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by AlejoHausner · · Score: 1

      You're thinking like a colonialist. Europeans came to the Americas, subdued the local inhabitants, and spread West until they reached the Pacific coast. When all the natives had been conquered, and most of the population was of European descent, that colonialist spirit had to go somewhere else.

      I think it went into science fiction. Since the "West was won", no more land on this planet could be conquered, and we had to imagine lands on other planets where we could expand into.

      But why should our efforts be devoted to an impulse that is based on aggression over other peoples? And why should it be based fantasy books written by sci-fi authors? What intrinsic value does space colonization have?

      I think most of your ideas about finite resources and "gaining the high ground" are just colonialism in disguise.

      Alejo

    22. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by Todd+Knarr · · Score: 1

      Because, for most of what needs done, we don't have anything even a fraction as capable as a human being. If we could build completely automated factories and mines, why haven't we done so on Earth? It's not like we're lacking in factories and mines. But nobody's been able to do it. We can automate things when everything's going right, but when something breaks or goes wrong we need to send a human in to clean up the mess and fix the problem. Space isn't going to be much different, other than there being a lot more things to break or go wrong and need fixing.

      Take the simple problem of getting from point A to point B in a car in an obstructed environment. The absolute best we can manage in autonomous vehicles is something that can crawl along at 5-10mph and maybe, possibly, make it a few blocks before it crashes into something, high-centers itself or otherwise does something fatally bad. And that's on a course where the obstacles are stationary. A human, by contrast, can drive a car hundreds of miles, travelling at speeds upwards of 75mph, on roads with dozens of other vehicles also doing 75+mph mere feet away and making erratic, unpredictable moves, and do it while carrying on a conversation with someone else the whole time. That's quite a difference in capability.

    23. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by Sparklepony · · Score: 1

      We haven't here on Earth because humans are much much cheaper down here. For the cost of one human mission to Mars, with all the immense life support expenses and technologies that would have to be carted along, I suspect you could indeed do a more capable job with robots. Lots of robots. You could scatter them all over the planet.

    24. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by ckaminski · · Score: 1

      Who financed Columbus' voyage? Yup, King of Spain.

      Everyone else thought he was a fraking lunatic - everyone knew the Earth was Flat.

    25. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by ckaminski · · Score: 1

      We've only BEGUN exploring how to build UP, we have barely scratched the surface of our ability to build DOWN. There's an ocean to fill with seafloor-scrapers, and MILES and MILES of bedrock to fill with cities. Claiming we're going to run out of room anytime soon is being naive. Running out of room to grow stuff, maybe, but not places to live.

    26. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by marco.antonio.costa · · Score: 1

      Who financed the King of Spain? Yup, Spanish subjects.

      --
      Send your spendthrift head of state this
    27. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by Todd+Knarr · · Score: 1

      But first you have to have them. Case in point: the DARPA autonomous-driving challenge. Watch the videos of it sometime. It's like a Marx Brothers routine in places. And those are the best we have. The cutting edge, leaps and bounds beyond the next best thing. Yet the best of them can't go more than a few blocks without making a hard left for no apparent reason and driving straight into a building. And this is what you're proposing we explore Mars with? Somehow, I don't think that's going to end well.

    28. Re:Space isn't an option, it's a requirement by ckaminski · · Score: 1

      Queen of Spain's patronage of his project caused forth his private investors to pony up and commit. So yes, government support of his project gave Spain the New World... Their's to lose

  21. Space is a waste! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Outsource it and forget it, we have problems to solve here on the real world. Let the other idiots waste their time exploring the big black nothing.

  22. teflon? by Reality+Master+201 · · Score: 3, Informative

    Teflon was invented by accident in 1938. The space program had nothing to do with it.

    1. Re:teflon? by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      Not only was it invented accidentally in 1938 - it became cheap after WWII because of the huge surplus in manufacturing capacity that became available after the Manhattan Engineer District stopped buying by the ton.

  23. 23 years ago? by Iphtashu+Fitz · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Wow. I remember it like it was yesterday since I was in high school in NH at the time. I was at a boarding school and was in my dorm room waiting for the cafeteria to open for lunch when a friend came in and told me he'd heard about it on the radio. We turned on my radio and listened for a while before heading down to lunch. I guess I looked really shocked because one of the women in the serving line asked me if I was ok. I said that the shuttle had just blown up and she just laughed and said something like "oh, very funny". I snapped back at her to turn on a radio if they had one in the kitchen then went out to find a place to eat. I came back about 15 minutes later for seconds and the same woman was extremely apologetic. My friend and I then went to the student center where there was a projection tv and it seemed like 90% of the students were standing around silently watching the news coverage.

    1. Re:23 years ago? by LatencyKills · · Score: 1

      I walked back into my dorm after a math test and ran into a friend in the hallway. "Did you hear what happened to the space shuttle?" she asked. "What, did it explode?" I replied in jest. "Yes."

      It had become so commonplace, so many launches going up without problem, that the immense technical complexity and enormous risk had been completely forgotten by me.

      --
      Jealously hoarding mod points since 2007.
    2. Re:23 years ago? by kannibal_klown · · Score: 1

      I was pretty young back during the Challenger disaster; I was just passed the age of where we start actually storing memories into adult-hood.

      I recall our school making a big deal about it: they quickly rushed radios and what few TVs we had into the classrooms so we could follow the news. A few days/weeks later we planted a tree near the playground in memory of the crew.

      From what I remember it didn't really affect me. I remember I was shocked (I think I said "Wow" or something), as back then I thought NASA was some overly-ideal and perfect organization... but that's about it.

      I do recall my teacher looked either sad or shaken while we were watching, and maybe a few kids cried, but that's about it.

      Recent events are another story. But back then the intricacies were lost on me.

    3. Re:23 years ago? by will_die · · Score: 1

      College flashbacks.
      Boy I am getting old.

  24. Re:kill NASA by rbanffy · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Wait a minute. The Falcon 1 has not, yet, delivered humans anywhere.

  25. Good ol Nasa by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Good ol Nasa

  26. Im a Privateer by unity100 · · Score: 1

    Archduke of Krakton has given me license to prey on this sector's shipping.
     
      * subliminal message - you should continue your manned space program * * its good for you *

  27. Re:Lesson 1 - Mod parent up :) by khallow · · Score: 2, Informative

    I also work around environmental policy, and strongly feel we'd be better off working on surviving on this planet, instead of ruining it, then going off looking for others to ruin.

    We know how to survive on Earth, whether we chose to do so is a different story. For example, the Millennium Development Goals only exist because irresponsible countries have failed to implement those goals long before. Successful ways to run societies and countries have been known for centuries. Second, as someone who claims to work in space science, you surely must be aware that there's some locations in space that simply cannot be ruined, for example, the Moon.

  28. Re:Lesson 1 - Mod parent up :) by ColdWetDog · · Score: 2, Interesting

    There really isn't any reason not to do both. Few would argue that it is and either / or situation, although the specifics about who gets what and when can lead to some heated debates. Unfortunately because money is the limiting resource.

    The US is a huge economy, even when it's tanking. There really isn't any reason not to fund NASA on a reasonable, sustained budget. That would go a long way to being able to make rational choices as to how to apportion money to the various aspects of space exploration. And it isn't even a matter of diverting funds to / from environmental issues. Who put most of the satellites that we're using to measure the planet up? NASA. How do you improve planet wide models of heat distribution (and hundreds of other issues) - you go somewhere else and explore other environments. Who does that? NASA.

    Sure, they're bureaucratic, inefficient, wasteful and slow - but it is a complex human endeavor so what do you expect.

    A better piece in Esquire and one linked to TFA is a short, humanistic blurb by Buzz Aldrin. Says it better.

    --
    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  29. Exploration is a defining characteristic... by rdejean · · Score: 1

    of mankind. It's what we do. We explore, and we learn. It's what we've always done. How many people died exploring the new world 500 years ago? 500 years from now, catching a flight to Mars will be just as routine as catching a flight to London is today. I only wish I could live long enough to see it...

  30. Re:Economic stimulous? by Big+Smirk · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Consider that most of what NASA builds is done by US workers it is a great way to inject money into the economy. Buy a US car and you find 47% of it is made overseas. Buy a one of a kind satellite and 99% of the cost is for American products and workers.

    Consider also these engineers etc. typically work at slightly less than competitive salaries in other sectors you are getting a lot for the dollar.

    --
    TODO: create/find/steal funny sig.
  31. How about by Mycroft_514 · · Score: 1, Flamebait

    We look at the facts. For every $ we pumped into the space program $100 came back. Not to mention all the EMPLOYMENT we got for high tech jobs. You don't think all that computer technology came from the internet do you?

    It is about time we take on another LARGE task to help get this country somepride again, and to kick of a technological boom again.

    As for Obama? Let's send him on a one way mission.....

    1. Re:How about by Reality+Master+201 · · Score: 1

      Or for real cheap we could just shoot you in the back of the head. Which I think would be a great solution to things

  32. Re:Lesson 1 - Mod parent up :) by aztektum · · Score: 1

    I agree with you as a whole, but at SOME point, it's almost inevitable that humans will have to spread out from Earth. I'm sure the future humans would be thankful that a lot of the heavy lifting was already done when that time comes and not having to scramble when faced with potential disaster.

    --
    :: aztek ::
    No sig for you!!
  33. Money obeys gravity! by starglider29a · · Score: 1

    When the Challenger exploded, I and an unknown number of other lost their jobs, or suffered pay loss from down time.

    The money spent on manned spacecraft doesn't go into a black hole. It gets spent on silly things like salaries, rent, bar tabs.

    I don't know if money trickles down, but LACK of it does.

  34. Reference: Apollo 1 investigation findings by Skiron · · Score: 1
  35. He's right folks. by Samschnooks · · Score: 1

    Those little Mars rovers seem to be going strong. Lets put our money where it seems to be providing the bes

    (Now the 'Buttface') However, manned space flight gives all of us hope that there's more to life than this pathetic little planet with all of its pathetic little battles. You want peace on Earth? Have an Alien ship blow up the Whitehouse.

    Man needs something greater. Aside from finance, we, as citizens of the World, need to compete for something greater. Struggling on how to defeat this finance bogeyman seams so ...demeaning to all of us humans.

    1. Re:He's right folks. by icebrain · · Score: 1

      I've long said that the only things which have a chance of truly spurring a push for space exploration among the general public are the discovery of intelligent extraterrestrial life, or an impending "planet-killer" asteroid. And even then, you'll have those evolutionary aberrations* that would demand we lay down and let said aliens roll over us to punish us for some imagined wrong, or the religious nutcases that claim it to be "$diety's will" that we be smashed to bits for our sins.

      *These are often the same ones that declare the use of any force (even in self-defense) to be wrong, but then scream bloody murder demanding protection from the police--aka asking someone else to use force on their behalf.

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    2. Re:He's right folks. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Mod parent -1: sings kum ba ya.

  36. What? by icebrain · · Score: 2, Informative

    I also work around environmental policy, and strongly feel we'd be better off working on surviving on this planet, instead of ruining it, then going off looking for others to ruin.

    Nobody said anything about "ruining" earth. Destruction of earth's biosphere is not a necessary condition for space colonization--in fact, environmental preservation and space expansion can complement each other. The technologies you use to achieve the first can feed back into the second, and vice-versa.

    Those of us who support pushing out into space in terms of survival aren't talking about "let's strip-mine the earth" or "oh, it's too ruined now, let's go trash something else". We're talking about off-site backups from global threats like large asteroids, virulent pandemics, biological warfare, etc., as well as providing room for expansion.

    --
    The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    1. Re:What? by ckaminski · · Score: 1

      Yes, but let's not trade one immense gravity well for another. Orbital cities, some semblance of gravity, serious engineering, not just set down on Mars or the Moon. If we need to avoid an asteroid, I'd like the just fire the ion engines for a few days and move my whole "planetoid." That's the best in insurance. That should be our space goal, not going back to the Moon, or Mars.

    2. Re:What? by Shag · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure about this plan. Those immense gravity wells - especially ones with atmospheres - deal a lot better with high-velocity impacts from small rocks than space stations ever will.

      --
      Village idiot in some extremely smart villages.
    3. Re:What? by ckaminski · · Score: 1

      The small ones you'll never see coming with radar, those are an engineering challenge. There's lots of work in reactive materials and armor to mitigate this problem, and if the pressure vessels you're living in are buried in say a 100m of asteroid, then it's not an issue. The bigger ones you'll see coming weeks and months away if you put half an effort into it. Once you're in space, we should in general stay there. Building infrastructure on another planet just doesn't make sense, long term.

      Free rides to and from space are never going to materialize. Then again, trying to economize a "Bethlehem Steel Works" for one of the LaGrange points seems a pretty tough and insurmountable task too. :-/

  37. Super Bowl Sunday is on February. by antdude · · Score: 1

    Um, this year's SuperBowl Sunday is on 2/1/2009, not January.

    --
    Ant(Dude) @ Quality Foraged Links (AQFL.net) & The Ant Farm (antfarm.ma.cx / antfarm.home.dhs.org).
    1. Re:Super Bowl Sunday is on February. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Dude, 2/1/2009 *was* January!

    2. Re:Super Bowl Sunday is on February. by nomorecwrd · · Score: 1

      mmm... I see your point, but slashdot is US-Centric, so it's MM/DD/YYYY.
      Not DD/MM/YYYY like some of us are used to.

    3. Re:Super Bowl Sunday is on February. by Phoenixhawk · · Score: 1

      That was MM/DD/YYYY the Superbowl is February 1st

    4. Re:Super Bowl Sunday is on February. by sortius_nod · · Score: 1

      such a narrow belief there... you're just US-Centric, the rest of the world isn't.

    5. Re:Super Bowl Sunday is on February. by nomorecwrd · · Score: 1

      Actually I'm Chilean...
      Slashdot is US-Centric... read the FAQ

    6. Re:Super Bowl Sunday is on February. by Leebert · · Score: 1

      No, Slashdot is *tech* centric, so it's:

      2009-02-01

      ISO 8601 FTW.

  38. Rocketeer vs. Mourner by ElboRuum · · Score: 2, Insightful

    This is pseudo-philosophical nonsense. The only thing that steps out at me from this article is that we could avoid a lot of mourning if NASA took January off.

    The problem with having a "space program", just like any other endeavor, requires an assessment of its value, both long-term and short-term. If these assessments of value indicate worth, we will continue to do it. If they do not, they will be shelved until we can find some previously hidden value.

    Rocketeer, schmocketeer. We'd do ourselves well to put that "go where no one's gone before" mentality behind us with its promise of larger-than-life frontier exploration. The only reason an American footprint exists on the moon was because we didn't want our Cold War rivals to leave us behind in technology which might be needed in military applications against them. I love how that's been romanticized into some kind of philosophical manifest destiny.

    Only when we stop looking at space travel as something heroic we do once in a while with the pomp and circumstance accorded to the victors in fierce battle will we actually find the reasons for continuing in this endeavor.

    The future value of space exploration will come only from a statement of permanence and an eye toward practical concerns.

    Space travel must produce scientific and engineering knowledge which increases its own capability, repetition, and safety such that space flight IS something we do every day, and not just every once in a while. Moreover, it comes from having a "next step" always on the must do list, which means that just circling the Earth, something we've known how to do for the entirety of the space program, must soon give way to actual destinations. Permanence. Furthermore, both with science/engineering benefit and possible commercial concerns (profit!), space travel must find a way to pay for itself without relying completely upon a tithe from governments. It will probably ALWAYS need to be funded by governments, big science always does, but it needs to find a way to chip in.

    The big gestures like going to the moon help in the marketing of space travel and NASA as a whole, but ultimately there has to be some foundational principle of pragmatism, even in the face of the utopianism of pure science, which ironically allows the utopia its existence. It would be a shame to lose what is a necessary part of our future as a species to a set of well-meaning, yet hopelessly impractical, purist ideals.

  39. What's the role of Space by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I was just reading about the role of space in an Aviation Week blog and then find this post. I really think we need to update our Space agenda. The question is not are we mourners or rocketeers...we want to do what's best for us!

    I found this blogpost that explained the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) mission
    http://is.gd/hqCV

  40. Not even the right kind of argument by macraig · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Jones makes an impassioned emotional argument for the space program, but fails to present any bald raw logical reasons why we can't stop and let it die. It's simple: the human race has NEVER before lacked a new frontier in which to expand its growing population.

    Without a space program, we have no new frontiers to exploit (without further ecological backlash). The human race is not so disciplined and comfortable with itself that it can survive that absence of a frontier. We will grind civilization, if not the species entirely, into the dust if we stick our heads in the sand and try to stop expanding.

    That's the simple logic of it that Jones fails to spell out.

  41. Rocketeer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I firmly believe that a manned mission to Mars is to be completed within my lifetime. I would love to be one of the few lucky/brave souls to partake on that adventure.

  42. Yes. Read about Richard Feynman's findings by KWTm · · Score: 1

    This story comes just as I finished reading Richard Feynman's account of the Rogers commission about the Challenger disaster in What Do You Care What Other People Think? that gives a rare candid look not only at the type of management attitude that led to preventable disaster, but also how it can end up getting buried in the resulting commission investigation. Interesting book, that could only come from someone with Richard Feynman's personality. (The Challenger disaster investigation is in the second half of the book.)

    --
    404555974007725459910684486621289147856453481154 in hex is "You sank my Battleship?"
    [GPG key in journal]
  43. For those who have never been there by LatencyKills · · Score: 2, Interesting

    A little over a decade ago I was working on a program that used LIDAR to measure the shuttle exhaust plume constituents during liftoff. The trailer housing the lasers and telescope was positioned next to the block house for the Apollo 1 launch pad (launch complex 34). The block house has been completely emptied and sits as just a thick dome of concrete about a hundred feet in diameter. The bathrooms still work - I know, I used them - though you frequently find frogs in the toilets. Past the block house, through a rusted chain link fence and up a half mile of one-lane road surfaced in cracked seashell concrete (the concrete uses seashells for structure instead of gravel) sits the launchpad itself. It's a massive concrete table, several small outbuildings, and an enormous steel blast diverter now crumbling and rusted. There's a bronze plaque mounted on one leg of the tripod http://www.wolverhamptonclc.co.uk/wp-content/images/Plaque%20to%20commorate%20the%20Apollo%201%20astronauts.JPG and that's it. I suspect I was the first person to have walked out there and looked at it in some time.

    --
    Jealously hoarding mod points since 2007.
  44. Astronauts and chance of death. by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 1
    These guys and gals know what they are signing up for. Though courting disaster and risking their lives etc make it very glamorous, they put up with lot more than risk of dying. From wearing extended wear diapers to drinking water recycled from their own waste...

    How come the anything on earth is ok between consenting adults, but signing up for high risk out of the earth career is not ok?

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
  45. Keep these issues distinct by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Letâ(TM)s keep the various issues distinct here. Obtaining resources from space can be done without (much) manned space flight. Investing in basic science can be done independent of either a manned or robotic space program. Too many comments confuse all three into âoeWe have to send people into space so we can get resources back and the investment into science makes it worthwhile anyway.â

    As for the issue of humans moving off planet--it might be possible one day, but the cost to blast and maintain just one person in space indefinitely is tremendous. Orders of magnitude greater than maintaining an individual here on Earth where oxygen and water are supplied virtually for free by the planet. Itâ(TM)s like worrying that we have only 5 billion years left before the sun becomes a red giant. We should plan ahead, but more immediate problems take priority.

  46. NASA should continue to do what is does best... by Sir+Holo · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ...unmanned missions of exploration. Space probes and planetary probes.

    They cost way less than manned missions, and return way more scientific information.

  47. I am so tired of comparisons to Iraq by Shivetya · · Score: 1

    How many of our own children have died in the past year to auto accidents? How many of our people have died in them? How many die to starvation because its not politically correct to remove the tyrants in power?

    I will say this about astronauts and soldiers. Both sign up even after seeing the numbers because they envision something greater than themselves and are willing to pay the ultimate price to see it through. I wish I still had that courage (served from 85 to 89). Sometimes we forget just how much is paid for because people love life so much that they will do what it takes to make it better for the rest of us.

    We turn a blind eye to "common" deaths and exaggerate the impact of the uncommon. I don't see to minimize Iraq but I have friends who went through Vietnam and Iraq has nothing on that. In fact two of them have children in or having served in Iraq and neither expressed any concern after talking to their children about it. I fully expect the tone about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to change simply because of who is in office.

    For some numbers worldwide http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2007/pr17/en/index.html

    Tell me why we aren't doing more. Its pretty twisted to ignore them too.

    --
    * Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
  48. It's funny how some people by Chicken_Kickers · · Score: 1

    It's funny how some people (not flaming you or anything) will go on and on about "for the future of the humanity" or "for humanity to survive, we must leave the Earth-Mother lest an asteroid smacks us on the head" yet would not give a flying excrement to the homeless guy down the street. Lets face it. Should humans ever manage to colonise other planets, YOU won't probably be going on the trip. You will probably be dead by then. If you're an Atheist, you don't even get the satisfaction of watching down from heaven on your great-great grand children's space hijinks. If people truly care for humanity, maybe they should instead of pining for the Alpha-Centaurian fjords, start doing something good and immediate that helps people around them.

  49. Space is safe... by CohibaVancouver · · Score: 2, Interesting

    What I think is interesting about the deaths in NASA is none of them actually happened in space. Apollo 13 might have ended badly, but it didn't. No one died on the moon because the ascent stage rocket on the LEM failed to fire. No one has had a space suit spring a leak or spiraled away during an EVA.

    Seems if you're an astronaut, the safest place for you is in space.

  50. False economy. by camperdave · · Score: 2, Informative

    Buy a US car and you find 47% of it is made overseas. Buy a one of a kind satellite and 99% of the cost is for American products and workers.

    Nice try, but you're forgetting about volume. Even if only 53% of a US car may actually be made in the US, there are 7+million made each year. Compare that to the twenty satellites made every year. Each one would have to cost a million times as much as a car to inject the same amount of money into the economy. There are few 30 billion dollar satellites. A communications satellite can be built and put in orbit for less than $100million.

    --
    When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
  51. The military subsidized high tech as well... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You don't think all that computer technology came from the internet do you?

    The military & NSA were also major users of computer technology. George W. Bush embarked on a pretty big task with them to give >20 million people a small chance (that I think will fail) at freedom, so lets lay off the large tasks for a while.

  52. Okay by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

    Well, can't be right all the time. But that is only one example. There are many others.

    Adhesives, insulation, construction techniques.

    What do you think of GPS? That certainly would not have been possible without an active space program. And as a result of GPS, private pilots are significantly safer than they were before it became available. And the same can be said for automobiles, but in a much more limited sense.

  53. *sighs* by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "We walked on the moon once, Abby."

    What happened?

  54. NASA Has a Short Memory by AJ+Mexico · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I bought a copy of the book Prescription for Disaster at a second-hand store. This book details the mistakes and mind-set that led to the Challenger Accident. This book should be required reading at NASA, since those who don't remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
    GOOD NEWS: My copy had markings showing it had once belonged to the NASA library.

    BAD NEWS: it had been discarded to a thrift store before the Columbia accident, where some of the same mistakes were repeated.

    --
    Computers obey me.
    1. Re:NASA Has a Short Memory by AJ+Mexico · · Score: 1
      (Replying to my own post) I have the book in front of me now. Prescription for Disaster is by Joseph J. Trento. My copy is marked "NASA HEADQUARTERS LIBRARY Washington, DC", and contains the business card of a NASA "Manager, Reliability and Quality Assurance" inside.

      I bought a copy of the book Prescription for Disaster at a second-hand store. This book details the mistakes and mind-set that led to the Challenger Accident. This book should be required reading at NASA, since those who don't remember the past are condemned to repeat it. GOOD NEWS: My copy had markings showing it had once belonged to the NASA library. BAD NEWS: it had been discarded to a thrift store before the Columbia accident, where some of the same mistakes were repeated.

      --
      Computers obey me.
  55. Re:Lesson 1 - Mod parent up :) by Nefarious+Wheel · · Score: 1

    ...strongly feel we'd be better off working on surviving on this planet, instead of ruining it, then going off looking for others to ruin...

    Spare me. Yes, we need to work on cleaning up our own nest, but get this .. space is infinite. If only a tiny percentage of it contains habitable planets, and only a tiny percentage of those are uninhabited (say) then the number of planets for us to use is still infinite. Check your math. And if it takes generations to get even a few of those inhabited, then we win.

    I rather like being alive, would like my children and their children's children to have a future, and I do not consider humanity to be a disease infecting a planet. And if you do, then whose bloody side are you on?

    -- Disclosure: IAAEND (I am an ex-NASA dude).

    --
    Do not mock my vision of impractical footwear
  56. What? by multi+io · · Score: 2, Informative

    What "impending end of the manned space program"? Is anyone intending to end it? Have I missed something? They just want to switch to a different vehicle, with a few years of no manned flights in between. There were no manned US flights between the last Apollo mission (1975) and the first STS mission (1981) either, so it's not as if this would be something entirely new. So what exactly is the author arguing for/against here? Continuing the Shuttle program indefinitely? Or until Ares is available?

  57. No NO We won't go by crazmo · · Score: 1

    Why are we wasting time going into space. It's too dangerous. Needless loss of life. People should not risk anything. Settlers should have not crossed the Rockies. Lewis and Clark should have stayed home. Columbus didn't need to sail the ocean blue. The Vikings should have stayed home (Definitely out of Minnesota). And to begin it all--Cavemen should have stayed inside and not have been wasting precious ink drawing on stone walls. Really, people just don't need to take those kind of risks. Stay inside. But if you do feel the need to go outside...make sure you have clean underwear on!!!

  58. The forest and the trees by mangu · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I think you hit the spot with that post.

    We as a race stopped seeing the forest because all the trees are in the way. We have become a species obsessed with detail, a race of obsessive accountants and lawyers, we lost sight of the grander goal. Ants build anthills that way, by piling one grain of earth over another, but they cannot build any more complex structure because they lack a master plan.

    It's very good to say "let's eradicate poverty", but is absolute equality all that mankind should aim for? There would exist no poverty if we lived in caves, sharing our stone axes equally among all.

    We need something to strive for, something to work for. Religion tries to offer that, but only after death. Science and technology lets us work towards a better future while we are still living in this world. And manned space flight is one of the most difficult and worthwile goals in technology.

    1. Re:The forest and the trees by Shadowmist · · Score: 1

      The issue is not so much elmination of poverty, as opposed to the elimination of abject misery, a far more difficult and grander undertaking than the stunts of manned spaceflight. I can't think of a more worthy goal if you're looking for something for the race to strive for. Manned spaceflight while exciting is ultimate a sterile end, an empty goal. The universe is too large, the distances too vast, our lifetimes too short for it to produce anything meaningful.

    2. Re:The forest and the trees by iamangry · · Score: 1

      That's what you say now, and that's reasonable to assume given the way the space program has sort of stagnated over the past 15 years. People are working on fixing that. Space is the future of humanity. In the past 60 years developments from that industry have radically altered our way of life and contributed to our standard of living. Is this not in sync with the goal of eliminating abject misery? Hope is a big part of the equation, and an ambitious space program inspires hope in a way some joker politician cannot. One day soon we will perfect advanced propulsion systems which can cut transit times to nearby planetary bodies. This is the first step, but no one ever said it would be a quick ride to the stars (and if they did, they were being retarded). You can't innovate if you don't try. That's the point of the space program.

    3. Re:The forest and the trees by Shadowmist · · Score: 1

      What inspires hope for the wretched on this planet is food on the table today with the promise that there will be food tomorrow. They don't have computers to blog about Mars, or televisons to watch moon landings. And the pace of technological advance did not slow down with the receding of the space program, it sped up. Space is not the future for mankind. It can be PART of the future as there useful and important things to learn, but dreams of space are for those who have given up on thier world, blind to the fact that there is no other place for us.

    4. Re:The forest and the trees by iamangry · · Score: 1

      Fine, but the lessons in extreme efficiency learned from the pursuit of living in space is going to be a big part of putting food on all those extra people's plates (I say extra not in the pejorative sense, but in the sense that humanity is fast approaching or has already surpassed this planet's natural carrying capacity). More importantly, I wasn't talking about the people who aren't here in America (I would submit most people have a TV and most people eat relatively well here). I was talking about the people who will end up paying for the technological advances for all the other people who don't have food. Manned space exploration produces hope and technology which increase productivity and efficiency, which ultimately helps to serve your goal of feeding way more people than this planet can support. Furthermore, the pace of technological advance has not sped up because of the recession of the space program, but because that is the nature of suddenly having computers...which were developed for simulating nukes and the space program.

    5. Re:The forest and the trees by Shadowmist · · Score: 1

      I never said that the speed of technological advance was influenced by the closure of the space program, I'm just pointing out that technological advance was not dependent upon it. Humanity started surpassing the planet's "natural" ability to suppport it when we gave up hunter/gathering for farms and cities. An "Apollo" scale project devoted to Earthside products has the following superiority over manned space flight. While it may not be as flashy as the Apollo Moon Landing, I'd say that Habitats for Humanity, over the long term generated far more hope than a one-time moon shot, or even the distant promises of lunar colonisation. 1. The investment is immediate and not reflected in large pieces of hardware which are used once than thrown away. The Space Shuttle was an epic failure to try to overcome that weakness. 2. Full participation is open to a far greater number than a couple of dozen who actually get to "go out there". 3. Spinoff technology produced is more relevant to the needs of the project than being of merely incidental benefit. What we need are Apollo projects on the Earth and environment, a reformation of our societies into long-term, stable, sustainable constructs. A concentration on manned space travel comes at the cost of critically draining funds for the useful part of it, the unmanned space sciences. Authors of the mid 20th century and earlier used to trumpet the belief that the true maturation of a species would be demonstrated by it's ability to send spaceships into the beyond. I on the other hand would argue that true maturation for the species is the same as for the individual, a recognition of when it is the time to set aside childish amusements and get to the real work of living in both onself and as a member of the larger world we find ourselves in. Despite the dramatic photographs such as Earthrise taken from the Apollo craft, space enthuisasts continue to show a disregard for the long term future of the planet itself, believing they can write it off by seeking an escape from it's problems in the great darkness of space. But if you can't live on this planet, where can you live? So I close with a variation from the closing line of "When the Earth Stood Still" All this world, or nothing. The choice is yours.

    6. Re:The forest and the trees by iamangry · · Score: 1

      Since you were kind enough to respond in numbered points, I'll reply similarly. 0. Humanity was sustainable up until the industrial revolution. Rome was, oddly enough, sustainable. The population explosion which has resulted from the rapid growth of medicine and other technologies is what has gotten us into this mess. 1. While the space shuttle did not effect its promise to significantly lower launch costs, it was (and in most ways still is) the pinnacle of aerospace technology. The ancillary developments made to make such a spacecraft possible can be seen in use on many of today's existing aircraft and ground vehicles and would not have been developed otherwise. Hypersonic flight will only be possible because of technologies developed for the space shuttle. 2. Full participation in the apollo program was not limited to the few individuals who orbited the moon. Indeed, a program of such a large undertaking created jobs and economic prosperity for tens of thousands of highly trained technical people. Every engineer who contributed to that program participated in something that he could tell his grandchildren about... and indeed his grandchildren's grandchildren will probably hear of it as well. I do not personally want to go to the moon (bad internet connection, you understand), but it is my life's dream to make it reachable for others. For an engineer or technician, this is full participation. 3. While spinoff technology may be more relevant, "apollo" programs here on Earth would require considerably larger budjets to develop technology because of the differences you support. A space program concentrates its funds into building one thing, and the technologies which spin off are only minor parts. Comparably, an environmental program here would have to divert the majority of its funds to implementing its development. This leaves less funds for innovation. In addition, the cost of the apollo program (estimated at 80bn 2005 dollars) would be but a drop in the bucket compared to the cost of many environmental projects envisioned by people today. I would submit that it is more cost effective to concentrate funds in one place to develop technology, and then make your programs to disseminate and apply these technologies on the wide scale. In that way you might consider the space program a prototype factory (indeed it is. Solar cells would not have ever reached the efficiencies they have today if it had not been for the efforts of space agencies to improve efficiencies for use as power supplies for spacecraft). If it weren't for these developments from the space industry, solar power would still have an efficiency of only 6 percent and would still be completely unviable for municipal power generation today. I would submit that this is one of the space program's greatest contributions to the environmental movement, and one of the best pieces of proof that most space enthusiasts (every group has its crack pots, but w/e) care about this planet very deeply. I know space technology has far to go before it is open for everyone, but it is coming. As Stephen Hawking said when touring the engineering set of the enterprise, "We're working on that."

  59. Re:Lesson 1 - Mod parent up :) by Shag · · Score: 1

    The US is a huge economy, even when it's tanking. There really isn't any reason not to fund NASA on a reasonable, sustained budget. That would go a long way to being able to make rational choices as to how to apportion money to the various aspects of space exploration.

    Definitely. But I think Bush's "let's put all our eggs in the man-on-Mars basket" approach to budgeting has done more harm than good.

    --
    Village idiot in some extremely smart villages.
  60. Re:Lesson 1 - Mod parent up :) by Shag · · Score: 1

    I agree with you as a whole, but at SOME point, it's almost inevitable that humans will have to spread out from Earth.

    Because...? Manifest destiny? Manifest fecundity? Population is leveling off or declining in most countries developed enough to get off the planet, isn't it?

    --
    Village idiot in some extremely smart villages.
  61. Re:Lesson 1 - Mod parent up :) by Shag · · Score: 1

    as someone who claims to work in space science

    Sorry for not providing full disclosure up front.

    you surely must be aware that there's some locations in space that simply cannot be ruined, for example, the Moon.

    "cannot be ruined" in the sense that there's a treaty saying it can't be done? or in the sense that there's nothing there to really ruin? :)

    --
    Village idiot in some extremely smart villages.
  62. Eloquent Article by Un+pobre+guey · · Score: 1
    The article sums up the entirety of the justification for manned space travel: nothing but sappy, soapy emotional arguments.

    What has to occur for people to understand that manned space flight 1) is as colossally expensive as it is devoid of any redeeming scientific value, 2) far from fulfilling our need for exploration and discovery, actually prevents it, and 3) is possibly the least efficient way to explore the cosmos.

    Don't start with the moronic "if Christopher Columbus blah blah blah" argument. Manned space exploration is the equivalent of Columbus going out about 10 or 20 miles from port, sailing around in circles for days or weeks, then coming back and claiming that he was investigating the effects of sailing on the human body in preparation for real exploration that never really occurs.

    Manned space exploration means missions to lower earth orbit, and maybe a few trips to the moon every fifty years. Utterly pointless, of no scientific value, a caricature of "space exploration," and nothing more than a huge subsidy to the aerospace industry and the Pentagon. There is no credible or compelling reason to do it!

    Unmanned space exploration is exactly the opposite. It is far less expensive and has already managed preliminary exploration of almost our entire solar system, transforming our scientific understanding of the universe in less than half a century. That is true exploration, sans bullshit emotional arguments.

    For those of you enamored with the notion of a manned mission to mars, forget it. Its cost is unreachable and unjustifiable. Psychological issues cast great doubt on its human feasibility. No credible return mission has ever been put forward. It is morally unconscionable to send people on a suicide mission. Death or serious biological damage are highly likely even before they get there due to radiation and other dangers. With an enormous burden of expense year after year over decades it might be achievable, but for what? Robots have been exploring the martian surface for the better part of a decade at a miniscule fraction of the cost in time, money, and resources that would be required for a manned mission, also transforming our scientific understanding of that planet.

    The idea that our destiny is to somehow leave earth a la Battlestar Galactica even more absurd for the same reasons multiplied over an even grander scale. People who hold this belief are victims of a magical religious superstition akin to a belief in a spiritual life after death. It is nothing but uninformed faith, specious emotional arguments by another name.

    Grow up, people. We are adults, not silly uneducated children.

  63. if there was a 99% failure rate... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I would still sign up to go for a ride tomorrow.

    I will never understand why we aren't doing one way missions to mars using people with cancer (or other 2 years to live type illnesses).

    Ship some cargo containers to the planned landing site.

    Ship the cancernauts and have it be show like big brother (an hourly episode to air on tv each night).

    It would pay for itself!

  64. Rocketeer! by vistas · · Score: 1

    Heck, you mean in well over a hundred flights over nearly 47 years, we've only lost 17 people?

    I'd say that's pretty amazing!

  65. Re:Lesson 1 - Mod parent up :) by khallow · · Score: 1

    "cannot be ruined" in the sense that there's a treaty saying it can't be done? or in the sense that there's nothing there to really ruin? :)

    The latter. The Outer Space Treaty will eventually be overturned or renegotiated. Sure there are some modest aesthetic constraints, eg, don't turn the Moon into a giant flashing advertisement. But there just isn't much on the Moon to spoil.

    Sorry for not providing full disclosure up front.

    Sorry, I was snidely refering to your comment about not ruining the Earth first before we ruin other places. Why ideologically align yourself with a mealy-mouthed, navel gazing future that would treat your profession as something in a zoo, barely tolerated for diversity purposes? When instead you could be in a future where your profession is highly valued because it allows civilization to exist? Sure a few worlds will be ruined because humans will bring their bad side with them, but that seems a small price for a future where you matter and life is prevalent in the universe.

  66. Re:Lesson 1 - Mod parent up :) by Shag · · Score: 1

    Why ideologically align yourself with a mealy-mouthed, navel gazing future that would treat your profession as something in a zoo, barely tolerated for diversity purposes? When instead you could be in a future where your profession is highly valued because it allows civilization to exist?

    I deal professionally with both the study of things beyond this planet and the study of how to exist sustainably on this planet, so I don't see this being a binary choice, or necessarily see the dichotomy existing at all. I'm not directly engaged in researching how to live in space, on the Moon, etc - those folks are down the hall from me - but I've seen their technology, heard the briefings from NASA folks, and so on.

    Yes, there are risks to focusing entirely on this planet. But places like the Moon and Mars have their own drawbacks, in part due to their lower mass and resultant lack of a thick atmosphere. The atmosphere is annoying to us on the astronomy side, since it messes up the view, but it's quite handy for protecting us from radiation and falling rocks. If you really want a comparable new home, you'll be needing something closer to 1 Earth mass. And we who work in astronomy, with NASA or the folks who study exoplanets, are working on delivering that.

    --
    Village idiot in some extremely smart villages.
  67. Let's put Panama to work. by Moodie-1 · · Score: 1

    Okay, so we make Panama (which is close enough to the equator) our 51st state and build our rectennae in its offshore territorial waters. Then we strike a deal with Cuba to give us permission to run an underground power line across their island just outside of Havana in return for some free electricity. Connect the line to the tip of Florida and into our power grid and it's done. (Actually, Panama would probably become our 52nd state, just to keep from pissing off the Puerto Ricans.