100 Million-Core Supercomputers Coming By 2018
CWmike writes "As amazing as today's supercomputing systems are, they remain primitive and current designs soak up too much power, space and money. And as big as they are today, supercomputers aren't big enough — a key topic for some of the estimated 11,000 people now gathering in Portland, Ore. for the 22nd annual supercomputing conference, SC09, will be the next performance goal: an exascale system. Today, supercomputers are well short of an exascale. The world's fastest system at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, according to the just released Top500 list, is a Cray XT5 system, which has 224,256 processing cores from six-core Opteron chips made by Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD). The Jaguar is capable of a peak performance of 2.3 petaflops. But Jaguar's record is just a blip, a fleeting benchmark. The US Department of Energy has already begun holding workshops on building a system that's 1,000 times more powerful — an exascale system, said Buddy Bland, project director at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility that includes Jaguar. The exascale systems will be needed for high-resolution climate models, bio energy products and smart grid development as well as fusion energy design. The latter project is now under way in France: the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, which the US is co-developing. They're expected to arrive in 2018 — in line with Moore's Law — which helps to explain the roughly 10-year development period. But the problems involved in reaching exaflop scale go well beyond Moore's Law."
Can't we just start calling this a 'supercore' or something? When the numbers get that high it kind of goes beyond what most people can visualize. Like describing how hot the Sun is....let's just says it's "exactly 1 Sun hot".
I judt got a nre Kinesis keybiartf so please excusr ant egregiou typos.
Wait, what? You lost me. Are you from the future? How can you describe the state of the art as "primitive"?
-Peter
The CFL condition that limits the maximum time step one can take shows no sign of relenting. Score has been Courant (the C in CFL) 1, Moore 0 for the last three decades.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
All this effort at creating parallel computing ends up solving very few problems. HPC has been struggling with parallelism for decades, and no easy solutions found yet. Note that these computers are aimed at solving a particular problem (e.g. modeling weather) and not at being a vehicle to quickly solve any problem. When the comparable multi-processing capacity is in your cell phone, what are you going to do with it?
2B|^2B
Technically, shouldn't 640K processors be enough for every one?
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
The exascale systems will be needed for high-resolution climate models, bio energy products and smart grid development as well as fusion energy design.
Sounds like a pork program. What are "bio energy products", anyway. Ethanol? Supercomputer proposals seem to come with whatever buzzword is hot this year.
It's striking how few supercomputers are sold to commercial companies. Even the military doesn't use them much any more.
It's interesting that 4 of top 5 supercomputers are running AMD, while 402 of the Top500 are running Intel.
What's the cause of this? Value? Energy-saving? Performance?
We know what answer it is going to give. 42. Save the money.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
Only if they run Linux and can render Natalie Portman covered in hot grits faster than my imagination already does....woohoo!
Going on means going far
Going far means returning
The first Jaguar was a single megaflop.
We're still at the point where unthreaded languages (like PHP) are still viable. For example, we use PHP in a complex, multi-server, multi-core cluster, and it's "share nothing" approach scales quite nicely, in that having more and more users hitting the systemm on separate servers doesn't really cause a problem, since there's virtually no cross-communication going on.
But there's a scalability limit in what you can do "PER PROCESS". There are some very processor intensive functions that simply take a while to do (such as rendering a 100 page report, then converting to PDF) and there's currently no way to spread the load in PHP beyond a single core.
At the other extreme, we have almost the same problem - having such a large number of cores that resources commonly shared among threads and processes is really no longer feasible.
Languages like Erlang have a "shared nothing" approach, but not at the process/thread level, but at the function level. Individual functions within a process are themselves "share nothing" and thus can easily scale across multiple cores, processors, and servers in a networked cluster. (at least, this is the theory)
So how 'bout it, folks? Where are the benchmarks showing how languages DESIGNED to take advantage of parallel processors and clusters actually scale up in the real world? Is Erlang the cat's meow when discussing systems of this scale?
I'm not expecting to see my example process (100 page PDF reports) scale up smoothly to 250,000 cores, but I sure would like to see it scale up smoothly to a dozen or two!
I have no problem with your religion until you decide it's reason to deprive others of the truth.
Maybe this thing will have enough power to run Windows by 2018??
"Before God we are all equally wise - and equally foolish"
Albert Einstein
When the comparable multi-processing capacity is in your cell phone, what are you going to do with it?
Stream high definition porn... duh.
How many cores do we need to simulate a human brain?
Yup. 100-million core driven Second-Life server, like the Matrix.
New Economic Perspectives
I am currently accepting investors to help build a one billion core supercomputer to create high resolution climate models that take into account the waste heat from a 100 million core supercomputer making a high resolution climate model.
(Seriously, how much heat is that thing going to put out?)
Only if they run Linux and can render Natalie Portman covered in hot grits faster than my imagination already does....woohoo!
Your imagination must be quite primitive. Mine did that instantly upon reading your post.
The Long Now Foundation
Note that these computers are aimed at solving a particular problem (e.g. modeling weather) and not at being a vehicle to quickly solve any problem.
That's not entirely accurate. HPC systems are designed to solve a class of problems. That's not the same thing as a "particular" problem. Jaguar has, in fact, solved many different problems, including fluid flow, weather, nuclear fusion and supernova modeling. It's not going to run Word any faster than your PC but that's not what you buy a supercomputer to do.
Is this going to be the new processor requirement for running Flash in a web browser?
Take Nobody's Word For It.
no
I'm still waiting for that 10GHz Pentium Intel promised for 2004.
Parallel computing is great for solving NP-Complete problems. If you have enough cores for every possible solution you can have all possible paths process at the same time and compare the results.
That's not entirely accurate. HPC systems are designed to solve a class of problems. That's not the same thing as a "particular" problem. Jaguar has, in fact, solved many different problems, including fluid flow, weather, nuclear fusion and supernova modeling. It's not going to run Word any faster than your PC but that's not what you buy a supercomputer to do.
So you're saying that OpenOffice would still take forever to start.
Check Wiki about "thinking machines", "transputer" and if you have more than 1 CPU/Core, launch a game and see if all cores used effectively without needing massive additional work from game publisher.
Technology is primitive, even a billion processor machine doesn't save it from being primitive. It is the software at least.
"Portland, Oregon, U.S.A., Earth, Milky Way, Cluster TXH-170718, Universe 01 (we think)"
I'm always wary of making an infamous "50 MB of memory is all you'll ever need" type of claim, so I like to believe that we'll figure out how to use greater processing power by the time it gets here. We haven't had too much trouble with that so far. As far as actual use, if we ever get products like Morph (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX-gTobCJHs), there might be a need for massively parallel processing. At the very least, such computing power would likely be needed to make such products.
My webcomic
if speed is the goal, then it needs to be a power of two number of cores so that you don't have to implement logic checking for a valid core address. That logic would eat performance from every action performed by the machine. So, until you develop affordable decimal logic hardware implementations that can scale in size the way the binary logic does, we're gonna keep making computers that work fast the way we do now and it's gonna involve powers of 2. And get off my lawn.
"If still these truths be held to be
Self evident."
-Edna St. Vincent Millay
just had an ugly thought...."Windows17 for PC (Personal Cloud)"
HA! I just wasted some of your bandwidth with a frivolous sig!
Come on, that's just silly. I can understand why we might a few million-core supercomputers, but who would need 100 of them?
Bow-ties are cool.
Low latency, high bandwidth interconnect that can mesh 100 Million cores: The Next Big Problem in computer architecture.
Can I just say... FUCK YES. Thank you!
As someone who grew up in the Portland (Maine) area it annoys me to no end when people talk about things in "Portland" and neglect to disambiguate - especially when they're talking about the other Portland. :)
Bow-ties are cool.
how hard is it to write three more letters?
If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say it is exactly 3 letters harder to write 3 more letters.
Unless of course, you bold the last 3 letters, as you've done...then you have the html code to type so it ends up being like 10 letters more difficult.
Then again...it depends on whether or not you mean 3 "additional" letters or the phrase "3 more letters." because, in that case, it's like 13...even more if you bold some of them...
Sig Follows: "Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." -- Mark Twain
Only if they run Linux and can render Natalie Portman covered in hot grits faster than my imagination already does....woohoo!
Your imagination must be quite primitive. Mine did that instantly upon reading your post.
Oh yeah. Well my imagination automatically made her naked and petrified in addition to being covered in grits.
"If you are going through hell, keep going." - Winston Churchill
Yes. So by extending it to a million core machine, OpenOffice would take million x forever* to load if one instance is opened per core.
*Forever = two seconds after a mouse click.
Face your daemons!
To which Oak Ridge National Laboratory replied "Fuck everything, we're doing 500 million cores."
I take it THIS is a machine that might run Vista well. Too late SP3 aka Windows 7 is out.
These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer
Stream it? With that much processing power it should be able to create it on the spot: "Computer, let's start today's scenario with Angelina Jolie surrounded by...."
Any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so.
Yeah, I can see it..
You can close your eyes to reality but not to memories.
Probably will need a fusion plant to power and cool the thing. But still sounds awesome. They briefly mention data/memory flow issues, but don't really address it. It is getting to the point where data flow will be as important as processing power, especially as you have escalating processors. You can run as many operations as you want, but if it can't be delivered somewhere useful, then they are wasted. I am also very interested on how the overhead will be managed when this many processors are involved. Multi-processors are not quite 2x (or 4x, 8x, etc) than just one processor due overhead, and even a really specialized scaled OS & I/O system won't be able to overcome this many processors.
Now for some fun:
It could probably power real time rendering of a Beowulf cluster of Natalie Portmans in grits while making us submit "All Our Base" to our new "Insert-Here Overlords". (Did I miss any?)
Vote monkeys into Congress. They are cheaper and more trustworthy.
Q: Is there a God?
A: There is now!
Department of energy?
Mapping weather systems?
Cracking high bit encryption schemes? Listening to every phone call happening on the planet and mapping social patterns?
BORING!
No, I want to see a 100 million core supercomputer render one of those 3D "Mandelbulbs" and let me do some real-time exploring with a VR helmet.
Now THAT would be a worthy use for such resources!
That and being able to grow virtual beings from DNA samples.
-FL
All your cores are belong to us!
when these exascale systems start asking questions and/or making demands?
Parallel computing is great for solving NP-Complete problems. If you have enough cores for every possible solution you can have all possible paths process at the same time and compare the results.
That's tough to manage when the number possible paths grows exponentially with respect to the input size.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, home to the world's fastest supercomputer, does a lot of work for national security. At the labs housing the top ten supercomputers, at least five do weapons and defense research. And that's just what the public knows about. I would be shocked if there weren't similar supercomputers working on intelligence and classified projects.
Even if the computers aren't stamped with "U.S. Army", the military does indeed use many of them. The wonderful side effect of their push to simulate things like aging nuclear weapons is that it helps develop the technology for peacetime purposes like renewable energy and pharmaceuticals.
How many problems can these systems really solve?
Well, only the ones where you need to conserve mass, momentum and energy; pretty niche market really...
I am sure Stalker SOC will still crash.
-Oz
But even when choosing a data type for money, an app designer still needs to know base 2 to find the appropriate type in MySQL capable of holding amounts up to $327.67 (smallint), $83,886.07 (mediumint), over $21 million (integer), or more money than the gross world product (bigint).
You only think it was instantly due to your low resolution windows timer.
"Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
A 100 million cores supercomputer will solve a 26 city traveling salesman problem. Frankly, if your salesman needs to visit more cities than that, you could probably gain more by re-targeting your sales to larger markets.
"Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
If each core could model one small patch of skin on one of those busty 3D models, then, well, ... wow!
Exascale computing may seem mind bogglingly implausible at first glance, but one forgets that logic switch density goes up with the square of the process size reduction. A 1000-fold increase in computing is merely a 10x reduction in process size. Intel seems confident silicon can approach this, although it may be the realm of graphene and nanotubes.
1997/8 The first teraflops class supercomputers. We now have 32-45nm silicon.
2008/9: First petaflops class supercomputers. Today, teraflops computing is available in your desktop. A single $100 800 core GPU is theoretically a match for the 1997 #1 supercomputer.
2018/19: A single $100 ASIC should be capable of a petaflop. 3-4nm would be required to keep pace. Enter the era of exascale computing.
Oddly Moore's law detractors have been so consitently wrong, the burden of proof is now on the critic.
After logging in slashdot still does not take you back to the page you were on. It's been that way for 20 years.
can it run Crysis???
...what might happen if we could run a copy of The Sims on a truly massive supercomputer. It would need to be somewhat customised for that particular machine/environment, of course, but I think it could be interesting.
There were times when I did see something close to genuinely emergent behaviour in the Sims 2, or more specifically, emergent combinations of pre-existing routines. You need to set things up for them in a way which is somewhat out of the box, and definitely not in line with real world human architectural or aesthetic norms, but it can happen.
Makes me think; if we could run the Sims, or the bots from some currently existing FPS, parallel on a sufficiently large scale, we might eventually start seeing some very interesting results come from it, at least within the contexts of said games.
Average human lifespan is 80 years. Assuming the author is roughly 30, then the author need only fear being ridiculed for underestimating the future for the next 50 years. Assume Moore's Law continues to hold and assume that scheduling problems constrain individual motherboards to 16x16 cores (16-way SMP is your limit, it's hard to imagine hardware inside the CPU is going to be any easier than hardware outside the CPU).
This means a desktop system in 50 years time can realistically expect to be limited to the equivalent of 256 cores that are each running at 100 terahertz. It won't be quite that architecture, but it should have that level of power.
It seems very wise to be scoffed at by a few people now and then hailed as a Visionary in his old age. It's not like anyone would give him anything now for being accurate, but Visionaries get their own TV shows, awards, endorsements - serious cash!
Far, far better to be a Visionary.
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
Easy solutions =have= been found, but then Inmos was sold off. The mice were furious.
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
Designing nuke reactors, designing aircraft (transsonic flows are nasty, hypersonic is a nightmare), designing bombs, weather simulations (or so they say), designing racing cars (almost all Formula 1 teams own or rent supercomputer time and Bloodhound - the 1000 MPH car - can't be designed any other way), processing data from particle accelerators (just collecting terabits of data per second isn't easy), designing new generations of microprocessors and pattern analysis in genetics.
Of these, I'm most familiar with processing data from accelerators. The work I did at Daresbury (20 years ago, back when there was still an SERC) involved collecting data from a very tiny accelerator. A mere 20 MeV. The design was over-specced by a bit (they wanted to be able to handle 2^65536 32-bit words of data) but the system really did max out both the processing and networking capabilities that existed at the time. And Eurogam was a small, small project by nuclear physics standards. The LHC, if they can ever keep it running, will be logging terabits of data per second. The European high-performance grid exists because the alternative would be convoys of 40' trucks hauling SANs. And you know how the French drive.
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
Not much chance of him failing at this point. Unless we hit a second dip in this recession, Obama will successfully claim his policies are what turned things around during the 2012 campaign, and there will be no gainsaying it.
"Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
Make a Beowulf cluster of these and violla, simulated brain!
Tsukasa: All I really want, is to be left alone...
Chances are just like 10 years ago, the architecture won't even be the same. This is useless, 100 million cores are only needed by google for its porn searches.
"They confiscated everything, even the stuff we didn't steal!"
If you are fighting about 1000 vs. 1024 cores, you haven't got enough of them yet.
10^8 cores isn't that much.
Human body: 10^14 cells, 10^11 neurons, 10^14 synapses.
It would be enough to simulate a brain maybe if each core simulated 1000 neurons and it is interconnected as well as a brain. Basically if it's a brain.
You could simulate a brain at 1000 neurons per core but it has to be cheap enough, small enough, low enough power consumption and dissipation, well enough interconnected and - okay basically you have to have a brain.
It would be very useful in biology, though even at the recent petacomputer discussions there was question about whether data should really be stored, it is so expensive to do so. Ideally you would put a drop of blood in and the data would be driven in real time through the system, which would
The problem is data storage. I was in a seminar about the petacomputer being built in Japan. The people were saying that there is a real question about whether data should be stored and how.
If each core consumes 10 watts, which is small for an Intel system, you are really talking about a gigawatt then. Fortunately, this is a the same problem as mobile computing, and innovation is converging to solve both.
They want their Matrix fan back...
Tired of all the isms, don't exploit people as an employer, or a government, mmmmK?
That settles it. I'm NOT purchasing any new hardware until 2018.