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Demand For Unmanned Aircraft Outstripping Their Capabilities
coondoggie writes "Has the highly successful but disparate unmanned aircraft strategy deployed by the military outstripped the Department of Defense's ability to handle its growth? The Air Force, Army, and Navy have requested approximately $6.1 billion in fiscal year 2010 for new systems and expanded capabilities. The Pentagon's fiscal year 2010 budget request wants to increase the Air Force's Predator and Reaper unmanned aircraft programs to 50 combat air patrols by fiscal year 2011 — an increase of nearly 300% since fiscal year 2007. In 2000, the DoD had fewer than 50 unmanned aircraft in its inventory; as of October 2009, this number had grown to more than 6,800. The program's success, however, is causing some big cracks in the system. According to a report issued this week by congressional watchdogs at the Government Accountability Office. The military is facing a number of challenges — including training, accessing national air space, and improving aircraft communications systems — that must be overcome if unmanned aircraft are to take their place as a central piece of the military's future, the GAO stated."
Seems like this works so well they want more of it... but in order for it to do all that they want it to do they'll have to divert resources from the manned flights that exist now. Some programs win, some programs lose. Typical Washington debate about to come up...
These thing remove the human element to much, from dropping missiles onto weddings and random cars they target from "intel" received.
I think you should have to send in meat soldiers if you want a war, get verification of who your killing, this is making it to easy to unclear to dangerous morally
"If any question why we died, Tell them because our fathers lied."
And yet they still try to convince you that playing video games all day doesn't teach you any marketable skills!
I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
Just wait until the commercial industry catches on. City 17 is coming, folks.
'We are trying to prove ourselves wrong as quickly as possible, because only in that way can we find progress.' RPF
They could develop a computer system which combines sensor input and calculates optimal control output. For resilience it should be distributed and connected through a network. A network for the sky controlling machines which terminate enemy combatants.
Who's there?
I kill you.
Game: Player 'Donald J Trump' now has AI skill level 'experimental'.
As long as we can switch them off when they turn on us. Just like the internet, I mean Skynet.
Winkey shortcut mapping for 64bit windows. WinKeyPlus
My capabilities are far outstripped by my wife's demands.
The US mil hacked and patched the system together as a passive look down system to light up targets. :) ..
Rails for rockets where added later.
The problem is the units are just prototypes on a production line.
They fail early and just keep on pumping out more.
Its going to catch up with the number of requests.
Solution- outsource. Get Brazil, South Africa, France, England - any $ needing country with a US friendly airframe ready history to make the basics and get state side security-cleared mercenaries to snap on the US electronics
A bit like Asia does for computers. Whats the drone per militant count like? How many rockets fired until fall apart?
A new freedom fighter takes 15 to 35-45 years to produce.
If a propaganda clip radicalizes X supporters and Y make it to the front how many drones does the US need to produce
Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
Put videogames that simulate the planes in trailer parks and recruit the kid with the highest score.
The most important part of this for the Pentagon is that there's no human cost to losing a UAV on the American side. There are no airfields with reporters to deal with - you're not going to allow a journalist on to an airforce base inside the control room for "security" purposes. The pussies who call themselves reporters don't go out of the green zone anymore, and it's hard to get anyone to care about a grainy video or far away sounding reports from foreign news sources. You can bomb the hell out of whomever you like. Even the most dovish democrats will have jobs tied to it in their home districts. Americans have proved we have an endless capacity for funding war. And with UAVs, no caskets with American flags, no problems.
“Vietnam was the first war ever fought without any censorship. Without censorship, things can get terribly confused in the public mind.” -General Westmoreland
[citation needed] - seriously.
I have no idea what country those numbers are ran for but they are certainly not America, where the US Department of Defense is located.
However, hardly anyone (here at least) will disagree that the money is better spent elsewhere, especially with the recent acquisitions of F-22s and the upcoming purchases of F-35s and the billions poured into those platforms.
"The military is facing a number of challenges, including training, accessing national air space and improving aircraft communications systems..."
And rehabilitation. For reasons not yet understood UAV remote pilots are suffering more burnout than most others, as well as PTSD to an extent that mystifies.
"I may be synthetic, but I'm not stupid." -- Bishop 341-B
OK, I give. What country has a population of 28,396,000, an unemployment rate of 35%, and an avg wage of $900/yr. Certainly not the United States, whose military we are discussing.
Are you serious? You've never heard of The Last Starfighter? http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0087597/
I wrote on this elsewhere: "Recognizing irony is key to transcending militarism"
http://www.chris-floyd.com/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1937-unnatural-acts-breaking-the-fever-of-militarism.html#comment-2450
and:
"It's the unrecognized irony that kills you..."
http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=1590182&cid=31561028
"""
It is ironic that the technology that goes into such a missile, from the computers and materials to the social networks that plan and test such things could instead bring abundance to everyone in the world. Yet people still build such things from a scarcity-based mindset, not recognizing the total irony. The tools of abundance all around us now (robotics, computers, networks, biotech, chemistry, nanontech, nuclear technology, and so on) are so powerful -- we will destroy ourselves if we use them from a scarcity mindset. If used from an abundance mindset, we could instead make the world into a much happier place.
As Albert Einstein said, "The release of atom power has changed everything except our way of thinking...the solution to this problem lies in the heart of mankind."
We need to change our hearts towards providing abundance for all, before we all die of the unrecognized irony.
"""
A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
Just think, before long we can have robots along every highway that can "eliminate" speeders and other evil lawbreakers!
No need for a trial or any of this "pinko liberal" carp - just ZAP them as they offend!
Did I just read that correctly? Are they saying that between 2000 and 2009, more unmanned aircraft were built for the US military than all of the F-14s, F-16s, F-18s and F-22s ever built *combined*?
Seems like this works so well they want more of it... but in order for it to do all that they want it to do they'll have to divert resources from the manned flights that exist now. Some programs win, some programs lose. Typical Washington debate about to come up...
No, more than that, UAV's are such a contentious issue because of the tremendous culture clash it's causing in the Air Force. In the Army, Navy, and Marines, UAV's are just another military tech tool to use in battle. But in the Air Force, which bases its entire identity on the old Knights of the Air thing, UAV's aren't seen as a valuable tool so much as they're seen as a threat to the very existence of the Air Force itself.
Think about it. If the day is coming when you can train young, non pilot computer geeks to do what current pilots do.... at less cost and less training time, too.... then why have an independent Air Force at all? Because sooner or later, we'll be able to make UAV fighters that can maneuver better, fly farther, and hit harder than any manned craft of today. It's just a matter of time
I think the dawn of the UAV era may well herald the end of the independent Air Force, and I think the current crop of pilots know it too. And it begs the question, did a seperate Air Force ever really make that much sense? It was a branch based on a particular technology.... akin to the Army splitting Tanks off into their own separate service, or the Navy doing the same with submarines. Airpower really isn't a doctrine so much as it's just one more weapon in your arsenal.
I think by our children or grandchildren's lifetimes, the Air Force may be long gone, and looked at the same way jousting knights in armor are looked at... a glamorous, romantic period that was relatively brief, and brought to an end by technology that made it obsolete.
Life is hard, and the world is cruel
We did not choose it? You might want to do a little studying about the "peace" conditions imposed on Germany after World War 1.
By the same logic, women deserve to get raped because they wear skimpy clothing.
I think that's a bad analogy in this case. I'm pretty patriotic, and pro-military. I'm a vet as well. And as I've read more about WWI over the years, I've become more and more convinced that WWII didn't have to happen, and that we in the west... including the United States... bear some responsibility for WWII. How? First off, it's becoming harder and harder to convince me that the US had to fight in Europe, that we had any real interest there. The Germans didn't start it, and looking back, was an ascendent Germany really a threat to the US? No, I don't think so. When you get right down to it, I thinking more and more that WWI was just another European Great-Power pissing match.
Further, the absolute draconian position that we put Germany in after the war created an atmosphere perfect for the rise of Adolf Hitler. Had we not tipped the balance in favor of the UK and France... had Germany fared better after the war.... I think there's a good chance Hitler never rises to power. He wasn't inevitable. He took advantage of the utter desperation Germans were feeling.
Woodrow Wilson should have never agreed to the draconian demands of our fellow allies. Despite his best intentions, all he helped accomplish was the implosion of one empire in favor of two others in Europe.
So I think the analogy is more along the lines of a combatant being raped by the victors... and then becoming so twisted by the experience that they embrace total evil to have the satisfaction of their revenge.
Life is hard, and the world is cruel
and I thought, "oh, that's not bad, that's ~10 FTEs and ~$5million of equipment, you can really accomplish something with that". And then I realized I was off by a factor of a _thousand_!!!
So that's 10 _thousand_ full time employees, and 5 _billion_ for equipment. Wow. What the hell are you doing that you need $6 billion dollars for 50 "combat air patrols"? Tracking every squirrel in Afghanistan's mountains?
The really bad news with regard to unmanned drones is that the only defense against them will be a superior offense. Because drones can be flown from home-based stations far removed from the country where they are employed, the best defence will be saturation carpet bombing of the home country with nuclear weapons to assure that the maximum number of potential drone-control sites are destroyed and laid to ruin via electromagnetic pulse. The fact that 300 million Americans might perish in such an event, will be seen from the perspective of the opposing party as collateral damage. It looks more an more as if Einstein was right, future wars will be fought with sticks and stones.
The military is facing a number of challenges, [...] accessing national air space [...]
Um, yeah. How about 'no'.
...put some serious research yuan/dollars, rupee/dollars, and ruble/dollars behind the search for better jamming equipment.
Orwell: "In a Time of Universal Deceit, telling the Truth is a Revolutionary Act"
OTOH, if they use the drons against US cititzens more frequently they could save a lot on police, courts and prisons:
http://www.wanttoknow.info/a-US-citizen-killed-drone-strike
I assume GP's point was that the money could be better spent employing people in Afghanistan, so that they have something better to do than join the Taliban and whatnot. It's not clear to me that GP is right, mind you. ;)
(previously posted on Feb. 22) YouKill.com! - A way to outsource the Airforce's growing need for more UAV jockeys.
Announcing a new on-line game for all of you armchair warriors: YouKILL.com! With the U.S. Airforce now introducing new Predator drones with 10 cameras each and more and more battlefield "robots" (like BigDog) everyday, there is far too much sensory data for our overtaxed professional soldiers to process. So, now we allow YOU the average citizen to partake in this wonderful way to defend democracy and earn gaming points at the same time!
First stage SCOUT - after showing that you are a U.S. Citizen and 16 years of age (wink, wink), you (and 10 randomly selected other fellow citizen scouts) are assigned a real-time video feed STRAIGHT FROM THE SKIES OVER IRAN / I mean AFGHANISTAN. If a majority of you click on the button "Suspected Bad Guy" at the same time, the video feed is instantly passed on to the next level, TARGETING. When you've proven to our computers that you're a good scout by having a excellent record of detection and (as compared with your other teammates) a "low" number of false positives you'll be promoted! (Sorry, detecting hot babes don't count!)
Second stage TARGETING - Can you take out an insurgent at 3km without harming the orphanage next door? Here again, you (and 10 newly selected random fellow citizen targeters) will wait for "the perfect moment" to pick off the bad guys. In this level, you'll need to consider range, airspeed, armanent, cover and, of course, COLLATERAL DAMAGE. When a majority of you and your teammates think the time has come to fire, your feed will be instantly passed to the final stage: FIRING. If you, as measured by the our computers, are consistently picking the best time to shoot compared to your colleagues, we'll promote you to...
Final stege FIRING - Here's where the fun REALLY begins! Now, you'll be able to take out bad guys FOR REAL! Feel the excitement as you unleash high speed rockets tipped with explosives at the enemy! Not only will you get to keep your online footage of each kill but you'll receive a commemorative coffee mug! (Just don't get too trigger happy otherwise you might get a visit from some of our military lawyers.)
Not a U.S. Citizen? No problem, we have a bunch of other suppression activities... I mean games available. If you're British you can play YouCOP which takes advantage of England being the video surveillance capital of the world. Here you (and 10 other "Brits") watch for illegal activity and report it! For now, no weaponry involved. But don't worry about it!
Not a U.S., or British citizen? Care to remain anonymous? Through special arrangement with some other governments we also have a new gaming site: YouREPRESS! Here you can target Tibetans, punish the Palestinians or any other group that our clients want to suppress. All we need is your eyeballs and a good twitch reflex! Remember, points you earn in our games will be tradable for virtual items and maybe even induction into the armed forces of your choice!
We're NeoOCP - crowdsourcing for the benefits of Big Governments worldwide. (Not a big government but a big corporation instead? Don't worry, we'll be announcing new crowdsourced spy products for you too! Like our new YouDRM; we'll make it profitable for people to snitch!).
"...- Kipling. Reading him gives a lot of insight into military life, and incidentally a little insight into politics. Of course, it helps to actually LIVE what he writes about, to fully appreciate it."
Not sure it would be possible to live the life of a nineteenth century British Infantryman in the colonies right now (or fighting colonial wars). Not many infantry squares to join and spend your time shooting "pore benighted 'eathen(s)" in Sudan, or belting and flaying Indian water carriers, I think soldiers these days aren't too happy at drinking malaria infested water and probably want more than a shilling a day now. But I get what you say about being in the poor bloody infantry.
Afghanistan was my first guess; but, considering the US has already put over 5 times that amount in monetary aid into Afghanistan, I was hoping for a different answer. Proves parent didn't do his/her homework. That $8B isn't going to fix the unemployment problem there.
"I think by our children or grandchildren's lifetimes, the Air Force may be long gone"
Ah, ye of little faith in this country's military-industrial complex. It is the engine that drives our economy. We spend more on military junk than the rest of the world combined. We have, almost constantly, for the past 50 years, been invading some country or another for no particular reason. The day we see our military shrink one red cent will be the day we see Duke Nuke'Em Forever released.
I don't respond to AC's.
Running out of people to fly the robot predator drones eh?
I see an easy solution. Why not just automate the whole thing, make an AI that can control these things, that way you can make thousands and thousands of the things! Hey it is probably even cheaper than outsourcing the jobs to Mexicans, Indians, or Chinese, and I mean who wants them in charge of the military might? Why we could create a home grown American AI for Americans. Heck we only have to make one, and then let it communicate via satellites with all of them, how cool is that! That would give us total centralized control over the whole fleet. It would be our network in the sky!
-Conner
What if your control signal is jammed ? UAV are a smart technology, but I'm cautious that it could be defeated by some basic radio crap.
This is war. People die. Countries fall. Genocides are attempted and prevented.
Why would we want a fair fight? The WHOLE point of military technology and doctrine is to AVOID a fair fight.
We want to smash are enemies before they even realize they are under attack. And if we can do it from across the globe with out getting our hands dirty, then all the better.
Whether we should go to war or not, and what the objectives of such a war might be is a totally separate question.
The drones are way over engineered. There are several DIY drones out there now, that "could" theoretically perform similar functions:
1. Extend flight times to two hrs. Li-Po & Li-Fe batteries are AMAZING.
2. Camera / HUD. --- been going on for a while. You can buy a kit for $500 and strap it to whatever you want. many include head tracking.
3. Drop a payload, or fire a dumb rocket. --- been done longer than anything else on this list.
4. Have a sensor array capable of thermal imaging, video, speed, altitude, attitude, & position.
5. Fly at 100 mph or more to "bug out"
6. Maintain stealthiness by flying 40 mph and quiet.
7. Enable a pilot to only control the plane on take off and landing, using GPS waypointing (yes, there's an app for that)
The hard & expensive part is the laser guided rocket payload. Those are heavy, explosive, and harder to assemble than the rest.
New materials like firber glassed foam construction, carbon fiber, brushless motors, Li-Po batteries, and the evershrinking computer chip make most of this possible today for ~1500 and a local hobby shop near by.
Seriously, you could do most of it really cheap by using a supercub and taping an Iphone to it. That's like $400 (plus two year contract).
How much is your data worth? Back it up now.
Good god! /. already?
Aren't there enough drones on
My Koalic Karma is already at an all time low, and now I have to komment on this krap!
Drone on, dear fellows. I am now approaching 0 degrees Karma (-273 degrees Euro, -459 degrees $)
Thankfully my entropic energy shall soon be null, and I'll be at rest. But due to Heisenberg's ideas, you'll never detect it.
.
- aqk
F U
That's only a fallacy on GP's part if you think the west won the war in Vietnam
"The west"? Perhaps not, but-
Are you still of the "breeding age", young man?
If so, scrape some mud from the earth of a Vietnamese village, or drink some of their pond water.
Ok- boil it; sterilize it first. Then put it in your breakfast cereal.
Then, have some children.
Do you really want to consume these PCBs? How did they get there? Who put them there?
Good News for America: Vietnam is CURSED for the next 10,000 years.
Surprise! America, you won the war after all!
CONGRATULATIONS!
.
- aqk
F U
The UAVs have never been tested in battle against a stronger opponent. Its been used only against Iraq and Afghanistan both are primitive countries. What happens when they are used against say China (or say Russia)? The first thing the Chinese will do is bring down the satellites and then the drones will be flying blind. So i wouldnt be in too much of a hurry to write off manned Air Force yet.
Fair comment. My dad served as a Royal Marines Commando. His stories of his times in the commandos put me off ever wanting to sign up to serve in the military. Sounded like 90% sheer drudgery and following insane and stupid orders, 5% fun and 5% sheer terror. He was taught Kipling by a sergeant major who made his soldiers remember the poems as something to do while they stood practicing parade duties on some windy blighted old airfield at 4 hours at a time, praying they weren't going to faint from standing still that long.
I have every respect for the military and particularly my dad but I have no desire to sign up after the stories my dad has told me. I am aware that I have the luxury of that choice because of the sacrifice of others and my decision has been to take advantage of that choice and try to offer something back to society in a different way (I work in education).
Sorry taken so long to respond.
What's the physical size of a reaper? oh yeah, here's a picture of that...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:MQ-9_Afghanistan_takeoff_1_Oct_07.JPG
That's the point of my comment. The MQ-9 is larger than many small airplanes. It's freakin' HUGE.
Judging by history, if we make a high tech version of something, the terrorists will make a low tech version that performs well enough.
But really what you've just told me is that:
The scale is interestingly small in a few respects
1/15 to 1/30 on flight time
1/3 in top speed, and 1/4 ish in cruise.
1/42 in wingspan
about 1/700 in weight & about 1/700 in HP this is really just a 1:1 p/w ratio scaling flat from what I fly now!
Someone could make many smaller scale planes that do many of these functions on a smaller scale for a minor fraction of the price.
Btw:
Electrics have no formal ceiling, until the air becomes thin enough that the prop is ineffective at the KV rating of the motor.
The payload part, that's where the scale looks like it falls off, however, what's the weight of that MQ9? I can make a 5lb plane lift 8lbs (it plus 3lb of payload, or in pig mode maybe 10 lbs, but w/ a long runway, and dumping fuel) That's almost double it's weight! I'm just interjecting personal experience here, I know I couldn't seriously scale that ratio up to far with any meaningful flight time.
The takeoff weight being 7000 lbs is 700x more than the planes I'm running. With almost as much change in Horsepower. That brings the scale much more inline with a WT/HP ratio that I am achieving now. Meaning that it theoretically would scale up... FLAT.
All I'm trying to say is that if someone "wanted to" we could build a version of that plane that maybe isn't as fast, or can cary as much, but would be "good enough" for a lot less $, using mostly off the shelf parts. Making them damn near disposable. Hopefully no one does, but the realm of possibilities is a whole lot larger now than just a few years ago.
How much is your data worth? Back it up now.