Facebook Knows When You'll Get Dumped
Pickens writes "Cnet reports that according to a graphic making the rounds online that uses Facebook status updates to chart what time of year people are splitting up, there are three big spikes on the calendar for breakups — just after Valentine's Day, just before spring break and two weeks before Christmas. British journalist and graphic designer David McCandless, who specializes in showcasing data in visual ways, compiled the chart after scraping 10,000 Facebook status updates for the phrases 'breakup' and 'broken up.' 'Might I suggest that, immediately after Valentine's, some women might be casting men from their sight, appalled that their lovers could think of nothing more romantic than roses from the supermarket and dinner at Outback Steakhouse,' writes Chris Matyszczyk. 'Continuing with this obviously accurate analysis, perhaps it's men who do more of the dumping just before spring break, as for some —however unfairly — their main concern lies in how their girl will look on the beach.'"
I read slashdot... I dont have to worry about this.
right after I take my girlfriend back to my place and she sees my extensive collection of hand-painted D&D figurines.
So, what did YOU do for your man this Valentines, ladies?
Give him a present he both needs and loves: FRIGGING DIRECTION.
DON'T go "if you really knew me, you'd know what I want". ASK FOR WHAT YOU WANT.
OK?
ffs...
Facebook doesn’t “know” when I’ll get dumped. Aggregated data, which happened to be obtained from facebook, revealed that the average person is more likely to get dumped at certain times of the year, but that’s useless when making a prediction for an individual.
Besides which, I’d need a girlfriend first.
Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
Valentines is totally understandable. Spring is too, and not because of the beach, but because of what spring is and what it represents. "Spring cleaning" generally means "Throwing out old stuff we don't want anymore" and spring is when most of nature thinks about hooking up, so it seems natural. But right before Christmas? Who wants to be alone on Christmas? I mean, that seems like a particularly bad time for a breakup, both for the dumper and the dumpee.
- None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
There is a theory that young men break up with their girlfriends right before Christmas because they want to avoid having to buy a gift.
Proverbs 21:19
... that Facebook knows when you get hooked-up.
Useful info for the sellers of kleenex in the first case, and condoms in the second.
Prove anything by multiplying Huge Number times Tiny Number
I'm getting married exactly two weeks before Christmas. I don't use Facebook but my fiancée does. Perhaps I need to start monitoring her status. ;-)
Any woman who doesn't appreciate the fine cuisine of an Outback Steakhouse isn't worth a man's time, anyhow. The ambiance and food quality are second only to Olive Garden.
this article is sooo three days ago
It is also obvious that men do less dumping then woman do...
If your girlfriend/wife/whatever is using Facebook and you are not, you need to get an account. Trust me on this.
"I'm just here to regulate funkiness."
...the upshot is that now you know the right times to ask people out with a higher chance of success.
facebook still won't replace the value of actual face-to-face conversation and interaction, and this is something it will never achieve.
He who knows best knows how little he knows. - Thomas Jefferson
I would like to see this graph correlated with age.
I'm being Insightful or I'm trying to be funny. Seriously, no trolling! Maybe!
Lest there be any confusion, this is not about Facebook analyzing YOU specifically and predicting a breakup. It's an analysis of a big group by averages.
I've seen it happen. Something symbolic about that day makes people out others in affairs and for discrete affairs to become indiscreet.
She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
I always thought the traditional breakup time was after Christmas, when you'd spent far too much time with her and her family and ended up never wanting to see them again and the only reason she was with you over the festive period was to avoid being alone?
* Valentine's Day: people don't want to be alone for the holiday; at least without enough time to find a replacement!
* Spring Break: people want to pick up new and exciting mates on vacation.
* Christmas: going home for the holidays and know you'll get your space for at least a couple of days.
I'd also guess the numbers are slanted towards younger people where these time periods have more of a common significance (kids going home for college breaks, even having a Spring break, etc.).
I swear to God...I swear to God! That is NOT how you treat your human!
Come on, Slashdot. This information (and the graph to go with it) is originally by David McCandless and Lee Bryon in this book back in 2008 and was copied by someone. See Peak Break-Up Times On Facebook.
appalled that their lovers could think of nothing more romantic than roses from the supermarket and dinner at Outback Steakhouse?" write Chris Matyszczyk
Im more appalled at my attempts to pronounce that last name
Miller Lite tastes like water that's somehow managed to rot.
If you are distrusting to the point that you need an account to monitor your mate, one of you has a problem. Hint: not your mate.
"Might I suggest that, immediately after Valentine's, some women might be casting men from their sight, appalled that their lovers could think of nothing more romantic than roses from the supermarket and dinner at Outback Steakhouse?"
If your Girl is that shallow.... It was a GOOD THING(tm) that she "dumped you".
Honestly, some guys cant afford more than that on a silly holiday created by a greeting card company. IF she wants Diamonds on Valentines day, Kick that gold digger to the curb pronto!
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
She didn't think you did enough for V-Day, it would have been fine except her close girlfriend got engaged in a very romantic way and all you did was rent a movie. You did at least rent a movie, didn't you?
And you were so excited to go with your buds to spring break because of all the hot chick on the beach. No wonder she was bitchy.
Then for Christmas one of you were expected to attend the family gathering and the other didn't see it as such a big deal because you just spent Thanks giving with them, and the 4th, and labor day, and presidents day, and Christmas last year.
There appears to be a weekly period to the data as well. People breaking up right for the weekend so they can hookup with that new hottie at the party on Saturday night.
This doesn't apply to this crowd.
There's potential for a great Facebook app here - the Dump-O-Meter. This would monitor messages to and from someone you're in a relationship with. Tally the positive and negative adjectives, and the response timing. If you send to your SO, how long does it take to get a response, and vice versa? How has that response time changed over time?
Collect this data for a large number of users, and observe when the "In a relationship" status changes. Dump the data into a machine learning algorithm like a support vector machine and build a predictive model. To analyze messages, repurpose a spam filter program.
Provide the user with warning messages when the predictor says the risk of being dumped is climbing. Attach ads for flowers, candy, travel, etc.
Generate revenue by selling lists of people just dumped to dating services.
I've been married for over 20 years, and my wife uses Facebook to keep in contact with her various friends, cronies and relations. Some of her Facebook friends are actually my siblings and other relations. I, on the other hand, have no interest whatsoever in flushing my time away on Facebook, and don't have an account.
:P
If my wife wants to bitch about me, she can (and does, at length and maximum Db) to my face. Or better, from several rooms away...
What I do know is that I don't need to keep tabs on her, which is both a matter of trust and our familiarity with each other's character, including defects. I would contend that if you need to watch your partner's Facebook posts to check that you are still attached, then you shouldn't be married in the first place.
The guy's completely ignored context though.
What about school/college university terms breaking up? They all break up for spring break and christmas.
I expect more people round those times were blogging things like 'I can't wait until we break up for christmas'' than were saying they were dumped. Which makes the entire chart meaningless.
I really really wish that was the case. I needed a facebook account to keep track of my ex, but I didn't have one because everything seemed ok. I got a facebook account after we broke up to get back in touch with old friends and its amazing the shit my ex was keeping from me.
A graph like this should be cyclical, with a smooth curve between the far right and the far left. It shows a big rise in late December, the highest point in the year, followed by an instantaneous drop-off in early January to one of the lowest points.
Is there some sudden function that occurs on New Year's Day that makes people stay in love? One that just happens to occur at the same time as the arbitrary graph endpoints?
I suspect what's going on is that Facebook grows through the year, and that there needs to be a scaling factor applied. That would imply that the peak at the far right is not nearly so tall in reality, exaggerated by a rapidly expanding Facebook.
Or maybe it's something else. But that's just the first thing to leap out at me. If they're not correcting for that, or at least trying to posit an explanation, what else is wrong with their methodology?
I'm sure I'm not the only /. reader that has found themself in the "good guy" realm. For us, relationships start in mid-late November and somewhere early in January. We then find another one in time for Valentines day, or at the very least end up on a fancy date for Valentines day that won't have a follow up. We're then screwed until the next November.
Now, obviously a relationship that is already long distance has its own challenges involved, but I'm curious how the data would apply to it. The latter two breakup events are probably due to breaks which would separate two people for a week or more. What if you're already in separate places? Does it happen as often, or is the occurance noticably diminished?
I predict that there is a 99% chance that you will be her ex-boyfriend by christmas.
Incidentally, my wife doesn't appreciate being introduced as my 'ex-girlfriend'... Just a little bit of pre-marital advice.
I think this comparison should only be made alongside when people are beginning relationships. For instance, perhaps there is a sharp rise in breakups after Valentine's Day because people are feeling sentimental before VD or don't want to be alone and so are more likely to begin a romantic relationship shortly before--couple that with the conventional wisdom that most relationships don't last 5 weeks and it seems obvious that the breakup rate would be highest just a few weeks after Valentine's Day. Or, potentially, you might find that those breaking up around spring break very quickly began new relationships suggesting that they were cutting ties with their SOs prior to spring break so that they can "have a good time" and "meet some new people" on Spring Break.
Did it occur to anyone that this only considers Facebook data and therefor ignores all breakups not reflected on Facebook. Maybe it's only Facebook users who break up those times of year. Or maybe only regular users who care if their status is up to date. Or possibly those are times of higher traffic from recently dumped users who have nothing to do but update Facebook.
I wonder what the number of people are that break up right before V-Day so that they don't have to buy their gf anything
The world is how you make it
I don't want to break your heart before a romantic days, I don't want to be attached when I go party, and I would rather dump you then meet your relatives.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
If your girlfriend/wife/whatever is using Facebook and you are not, you need to get an account. Trust me on this
Sad but true. As much as I personally despise facebook.
The parent doesn't say why... and I don't really know how to elaborate on it without coming off a creepy jealous stalker-boyfriend, but try and imagine all her ex-boyfriends, and all the guys she's ever met that she liked but never dated, and throw in half of their friends too... and then have them all calling to chat and flirt with her on a daily basis...
I'm not saying your girlfriend/wife/fiancee is looking to cheat on you, but there's often a swarm of people on her friends list that would very much like her to.... without being creepy stalker guy I'm just saying its generally for the best if couples are a "couple" online in an environment like that.
Relationships need trust, and people need their own space... but just being there and being part of it makes a difference; it can change the tone of the environment to a more healthy one.
Exactly. You would be amazed at how many relationships are ruined by Facebook. I did some research recently that really opened my eyes to this problem. The one thread through the vast majority of women's confessions was that they didn't *mean* for it to happen. A chat lead to a call. A call lead to lunch, then to secret meetings, then to bed. These were professional, intelligent women who previously had no intention of having an affair. It is mind-boggling.
"I'm just here to regulate funkiness."
This only demonstrates that there are enough selfish, sociopathic creeps out there (of both sexes), to shape behavioral bell-curves for entire populations.
No surprise there.
Anybody here ever snap awake with a sudden wave of panic to the fact that you're locked up in a cage packed full of mindless, wild animals masquerading as human and there's not a damned thing you can do about it other than hope you can distract them long enough to avoid getting your jugular ripped open with their zombie fangs? Yes? Then you probably don't fit into that above-mentioned bell-curve.
-FL
Bravo, sir.
Just to screw with Facebook's statistics, my wife changes her "in a relationship with..." person every day.
At least, she says it's just to mess with Facebook...
Chelloveck
I give up on debugging. From now on, SIGSEGV is a feature.
... before Christmas and gets back together with some of them after Valentines Day - said he saves thousands of dollars that way, and cleans out the clutter too... He'll usually pick one to take on an expensive vacation over that time. His logic is he can't very well spend all of the Holidays with each, so he might as well be pro-active and terminate things on his grounds, since they will be PO'ed either way. It also tends to make the women more receptive to get back together since he broke up with them - the logic works... The person who cares the least, controls the relationship.
A more insteresting study would be to know when you'll get LAID!
On the night of Valentine's day (10%), during summer holidays (45%) and late at new year's eve (40%). other (5%)
Valentine: A. You didn't get her a present. B. Someone else got her a better one.
Spring break: She wants to get busy! But not with you.
Christmas: I got to introduce this to my family? No way!
Slashdot anniversary: If you know when it is, you ain't got a girlffriend... ever.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
I think someone forgot to quote "break up." It would certainly explain the increases leading up to spring *break* and Christmas *break* and well as returning to work on Monday after a weekend *break*. Just a thought...
So people use the word 'break' in their status updates more around the time of Spring Break (whatever that is, IAITUK)...
Isn't it better to know early than to waste time being strung along? Trust but verify.
Might I suggest that, immediately after Valentine's, some women might be casting men from their sight, appalled that their lovers could think of nothing more romantic than roses from the supermarket and dinner at Outback Steakhouse
You might, but one might also suggest that the people who are doing the dumping are too wishy-washy and think "Oh, but I can't break up with her and ruin her valentine's day, that's just cruel" and so decide to just prolong the pain.
That link explains at least one post-Valentine's breakup.
Free Martian Whores!
What else would you expect, one is the date after the big reward for romance holiday where nobody wants to admit they're really not in a lasting relationship, the other two are right before periods where people expect to be able to break things off so they can go out and have some fun.
Who didn't know this?
appalled that their lovers could think of nothing more romantic than roses from the supermarket and dinner at Outback Steakhouse
If my wife, girlfriend or whatever is offended by those and decides to look elsewhere because of that, I'll say see ya bitch, go back to watching the bad girls club and Jersey shore with some other sucker!
My girlfriends usually dump me around November. I get a new one generally around late February. Happens like clockwork. I met the last one on Feb 9, we went out on our first date on March 3rd. Just got dumped yesterday. These guys are dead on.
Don't kid yourself. It's the size of the regexp AND how you use it that counts.
What about "end of year breakup parties" like we used to have at school"?
Another interesting correlation: Immediately after Valentine's Day is the easiest time of year to get a girl to cheat on her boyfriend.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLqjQ55tz-U or http://www.ted.com/talks/david_mccandless_the_beauty_of_data_visualization.html ... It's not just about Facebook, it has other interesting contents on "the beauty of data visualization" -- "David McCandless turns complex data sets (like worldwide military spending, media buzz, Facebook status updates) into beautiful, simple diagrams that tease out unseen patterns and connections. Good design, he suggests, is the best way to navigate information glut -- and it may just change the way we see the world."
Ant(Dude) @ Quality Foraged Links (AQFL.net) & The Ant Farm (antfarm.ma.cx / antfarm.home.dhs.org).
... just to see if that skews their data in the future.
Let's do away with valentines day, ban 'spring break', or at least close the beaches during that time.
And christmas is a religious holiday anyways, that should definitely be scrapped.
Once those are removed... that should do away with most breakups, right? Maybe get the divorce rates back down.
Then I bet Facebook would have a harder time being all creepy/stalker-like and predicting your break-up dates.
[P.S. No... not a serious suggestion, just a thought experiment]
Sounds like the "five love languages" which is based on that idea.
They did mean it. They just don't want to own up to it. women these days don't comprehend responsibility thanks to feminism.
Matches my experience perfectly.
Must...hide....post....before wife finds out supermarket roses and Outback Steak House are unacceptable options for Valentines Day.....
Hi honey. I didn't know you had a /. account. I'll be home for dinner tonight.
"I'm just here to regulate funkiness."