China To Overtake US In Science In Two Years
An anonymous reader writes "China is set to overtake America in scientific output as soon as 2013 — far earlier than expected. Chinese research spending has grown by 20% per year since 1999, now reaching over $100bn, and as many as 1.5 million science and engineering students graduated from Chinese universities in 2006. 'I think this is positive, of great benefit, though some might see it as a threat and it does serve as a wake-up call for us not to become complacent,' said Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith. However, the report points out that a growing volume of research publications does not necessarily mean an increase in quality."
Is there some way to objectively measure it? Number of patents, number of papers, what?
Chinese universities also have more cheating then us ones.
Quantity =/= quality.
In communist China, jobs outsource you.
...a machine for turning ramen into "scientific output".
When I hear things like Texas wants to slash 10 billion dollars from the public education budget. Or did that not get through?
'I think this is positive, of great benefit, though some might see it as a threat and it does serve as a wake-up call for us not to become complacent,' said Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith
Science is absolutely not a competition. Was Argentina harmed because the US went to the moon? Was Russia harmed when penicillin was discovered? No, not at all. China's increased scientific research is a benefit to all of us.
The only way you could possibly twist this into a bad thing is if you think China is going to become a military power and try to take over the world. But it's a LONG logical stretch between "greater scientific spending" and "army capable of conquering the rest of the world." So let's cheer up a little and not look at everything through the lens of fear. This is great!
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
Unless you purely count in terms of quantity, not quality.
Don't forget that they have a much larger population, so they will produce more papers just because there are more people. But as the summary points out, quantity and quality are two different things. In the past, we've seen articles on how competitive people are over there (few top schools, and too large a population = greater competition) to the point where there have been reports of academic dishonesty (not to say that they are the only ones, though).
Maybe theyl find more mixmatch dinosaurs and herbal viagra, but if the world of science elsewhere continues to bulk up on benefactor bia$ and special interest spin, then Il be just as happy to shun them all for my magic 8 ball. It already more accurate than the press and the local weathermen.
*Repent!Quit Your Job!Slack Off!The World Ends Tomorrow and You May Die!
believe me, you can make a statistician kill him/herself just by forcing him/her to read them.
As most Americans seem more concerned about burning bushes, the destruction of society by letting anyone marry, and other ridiculous religious nonsense. The stupi-di-fi-cation of America was started by the right-wing years ago because a dumb American is a controllable American.
Beakers per turn!
A step rise in Chinese research - and in Indian, and other newly developed countries - means more total research happening around the world. More research and more results is a win for everyone.
In addition, the spread of research efforts mean that more avenues are explored, and that progress is not as dependent on the temporary political and scientific winds in any particular country or region.
Trust the Computer. The Computer is your friend.
The system of citations & referees is so crappy that a count of publications and citations is so corrupted that it is fairly irrelevant. It is the eruption of the techno entrepeneurs that measures & indicates the savvy and value of a nation.
There is a real chance of breakthroughs in longevity that would keep all of us alive longer (perhaps even indefinitely). For this to happen many of us older folks may need the Chinese to fulfill their scientific potential ASAP. To me this trumps concerns over economic nationalism.
Go China!
China may do a lot of research, but it does not seem to do a lot of good research. If you've been to China, it is understandable why: There is very much a mentality of "Whatever you want to do is ok, so long as it gets you ahead." Lying, cheating, all perfectly ok. Well maybe you can argue this works in normal life and business (though some serious downsides can be pointed out) it doesn't work in science.
Feynman put it really well (he was talking about the Challenger disaster): "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled."
Well China's culture doesn't magically stop when you start talking universities and labs. The faking of results goes along strong, because it helps you get ahead. Publish more papers, be more prominent and all that. Works for the individual researcher, I suppose, but that means overall the research is useless. I can write as many papers as I like, fake as many results as I like, that claim that X causes Y. However if X does indeed not cause Y it doesn't do any good, I can't change reality.
Before China can become truly top at science, as in producing the most useful actual output, they'll have to have a cultural change, at least in the scientific community and probably the larger culture.
However I also fail to see why this is a big deal. I wouldn't consider myself all that worldly, but I've traveled to a fair number of countries not the US. All of them are by definition #2 or lower in science output, as well as many other things the US is #1 at. Guess what? that doesn't matter. They are nice places to live, with happy productive people, stable governments, and so on (I don't tend to visit countries that don't meet those requirements). I could move to Canada or the UK or Norway and be quite happy there. They may not be #1 in anything, I don't know, but it doesn't matter. You don't have to be the best at everything, I think maybe Americans need to learn that.
the report points out that a growing volume of research publications does not necessarily mean in increase in quality
No kidding. China (and Asia South-Pacific in general) has a rampant plagiarism problem. E.g.,:
http://www.forbes.com/fdc/welcome_mjx.shtml
http://articles.sfgate.com/2010-04-11/news/20844688_1_yuan-papers-professor
This practice has permeated many of the country's scientific journals, where it is commonplace to copy-and-paste large sections of others' work. International journals are typically able to shield this using "similarity detectors" and peer review, but the occasional hack-job still gets through occasionally.
I'm surprised; I thought the Chinese were already "beating us" (whatever that means) in Science. Good for them! Hopefully this will inspire the U.S. and Europe to get their shit together.
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Awesome. Then we can just copy their IP for a change.
Aww, go ahead and mod me troll. You know it's true.
Being in one of the largest hospitals in the US with a cancer research division comprised entirely of Chinese people, I must say I'm a bit surprised at the news.
However, the report points out that a growing volume of research publications does not necessarily mean in increase in quality...
Let's remember that although the USA discovered the silicon chip via Bell Telephone Laboratories USA, it was not until the Japanese came around and showed us what to do with it.
Guess what, several decades later, all our electronics are Asian made! What a shame! And the recent quake in Japan exposes how dependent we are on those Asians when it comes to sophisticated chips...forget INTEL and AMD.
I am afraid this story will be repeated but with China this time.
no, they just make for entertaining counterexamples/stories for their classes/clients.
"They were pure niggers." – Noam Chomsky
With the American tax code taxing 35% of all profits it is no wonder why these American companies with mountains of cash want to invest in R&D rather than let it sit in Asian or Swiss vaults.
Maybe if we did not have such high taxes more science and R&D could be done in America.
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Was Japan harmed because the US developed the nuclear bomb? Hell yes science is a competition--perhaps academic science is of potential benefit to everyone, but government and corporate science--I'm less optimistic.
... ummm
...
facebook profiles per capita?
Yeah! That'll show 'em! Hell yeah! USA! USA! USA!
Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
Around 2020, they will have man on the moon. More importantly, they will have multiple space stations around the earth, of which ONE will be open to the outside world. The rest will be military only (the more so since their space program is the ONLY one in the world that ANSWERS SOLELY TO THEIR MILITARY).
Likewise, by 2015, it will be announced that China has more nuke boomers in the water than does the entire west. In addition, it will finally be figured out that the number of land based and boomers missiles is a LOT more than the number of warheads that are claimed. IOW, they will finally come clean on their warhead production.
They will also have finished their dam in the Himalayans that feed all of India and Southern Asia, and it will become obvious that China is about to slowly take the water that THEY need ahead of the rest of asia. Keep in mind that China's water is not just dwindling, it is HEAVILY polluted.
In about 2 years, they will do a recall of many of their scientist that work in America. ANd a number of spies will head over there.
Lots of things are going to be forthcoming in the next couple of years.
This article is dumb for (at least) two reasons:
Dumb: As noted in the slashdot summary, quantity of papers isn't the same as quality. I have published physics papers in refereed journals, and my experience is that most scientific papers are correct but utterly inconsequential. They matter to the people who published them, because those people are desperate to get permanent jobs. Period.
Dumber: It's not a nuclear arms race, it's scientific research. By the (lame) metric of quantity of papers, the U.S. has increased its "output," while China has increased its "output" as well (and at a greater rate). Why is this a bad thing? Scientific progress enriches everyone.
Find free books.
There are more of them, so of course more of them will graduate with degrees in anything.
Rather than competing fairly, we should be using every unfair advantage we have to one up them just as they are using every unfair advantage they have right now, such as price, or rigged exams, or lead in the toys sold to American babies.
Now I'm not advocating we use the lead in the toys, as obviously China punished the individuals responsible for that, but we have to sotp pretending like America with 300 million people will ever produce more of anything than 1.5 billion people. The math just does not work in our favor.
We do have some advantages, such as infrastructure which we aren't renewing and are allowing to go to waste. We do have a bigger economy which we aren't using to our advantage. It's our destiny to be the slaves of the Chinese. America has become a nation of pathetic silent servants.
When the US is a third-rate, has-been country with no scientific or technological leadership in the world, the irony will be that it wasn't the Communists or terrorists that did us in ... it was all of those so-called America-loving conservatives who reward ignorance and shun scientific knowledge, who defund scientific research and agencies, who cut education and kill financial aide for college students, who attack scientists for daring to contradict the ideology with their elitist "facts." It will have been these people who damned our country.
Reminds me of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTSQozWP-rM&feature=player_embedded
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This wont be the last thing a country overtakes the USA in...... in the coming future!
USA is going to shyit
to busy suing each other!
With people complaining about STEM brain drain due to lack of science funding from the government, and STEM grads jumping into the luscious field of finance , what do you expect?
New Economic Perspectives
The "Space Race" was the single greatest time in scientific advancement in history.
Not really - the space race was more about technology than science. Scientifically the problem was solved: there was no problem calculating the physics involved to go to the Moon - the problem was developing the technology capable of doing so. It was a fantastic motivator for science and remains one of mankind's shining achievements but was really the result of applying science rather than discovering new science.
Well, fine, so they're great at SCIENCE. How good are they at spying on their own citizens, printing money, and starting senseless wars? eh? eh? Yeah, that's what I thought, the US still has that market cornered... so there.
Any scientific study worth a darn will produce something tangible. Let them do the heavy lifting for a while so we can just acquire it and reverse engineer it. I'm happy to let them fritter away money on lots of dead-end research before they come up with something useful.
Hey China! Payback is a b***h!
the offensive attack the US had planned if they didn't use the bomb would have been far worse. And that is historical fact.
Since when did educated guesses become fact? While I would tend to agree with you that is my (and your) opinion which is it something very different from a fact since we could both be wrong.
Maybe if the US companies stopped suing eachother they would have more money to spend on R&D.
kill him/herself just by forcing him/her to
entertaining counterexamples/stories for their classes/clients.
You two are making slashdot more slash-dottier than normal with all/those/slashes/in/your/text. Are we competing with China's slash output too?
But the problem with chinese research is not that there is good research but that it's indistinguishable in an ocean of crap. I never read any chinese author paper in a magaine unless I know the author or found it by reference from another non-chinese paper. most of them are just a waste of time. Seriously I'm not exaggerating.
But that's not just my bigoted opinion. The chinese governement has said as much when they promised a crackdown on phony research. Good for them.
Greetings China! We demand $Technology as tribute for our continued friendship! Be aware, our words are backed by NUCLEAR FORCE!
I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?
Was US industry harmed when Japan started taking research seriously, and applying it to their products? Absolutely.
What exactly should the U.S. be worried about? I fail to see the fear mongering. China is getting more powerful.......Blab blah....its' been in the news for months. The communist's are coming...we need to increase the military/Science budget by another 50 billion or we risk being overtaken. Good grief already.
This has been a long time coming.
Chinese Professor
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTSQozWP-rM
HA HA HA America
http://www.atom.com/funny_videos/haha_america/
Our arrogant decadent hedonistic lazyness will cause American hegemony to end with with a whimper...
Prepare to be strangers in your own land.
Legalize the constitution. Think for yourself question authority.
We've got them beat in religion! We easily have 180,000,000 religious adults, apparently there are only 110,000,000 over there. We win! Whoo!!! Whoo!!!
We have plenty of Chinese scientists in this country...and our Chinese scientists are better than their Chinese scientists...so there.
Restores my faith in the west, to see so many we can't stand others getting ahead type posts. LONG LIVE THE USA....U-S-A....U-S-A....U-S-A....
Perhaps the problem is not without, but within? Just a thought.
... in scientific research when you see the following:
None of these apply to China yet, and I don't think it happen in 10 years, let alone 2 years. So, if I were an American policy maker, I'm not gonna to freak out yet.
China's science is about as good as US pharmacological (sorry drug cartel) science, full of flids, zombies, addicts and school shooters.
thank God the internet isn't a human right.
This topic is featured on the current SMBC comic!
There are two kinds of people - those who are radioactive and those who have already decayed..
"There is a single light of science, and to brighten it anywhere is to brighten it everywhere." Isaac Asimov
Yes, i played lots of civ4... why do you ask?
moi
From 2010: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11453384
"A Chinese rocket carrying a probe destined for the Moon has blasted into space."
"China launched its first manned flight into low-Earth orbit in 2003; and two more followed, with the most recent one in 2008."
With their population, lack of religion, their scientific output surge was inevitable and still is largely untapped. More to come, much more to come. And in Chinese.
and do Marylin Monroe in every room of the white house, not because it is easy (well she is) but because it is hard..
Many historians would argue Japan was ready to surrender prior to the bombs being dropped. Some historians say Japan was actively trying to surrender before the bombs were dropped. But even taking what you say, it's still theory, not fact. It's not fact any more than Rumsfeld's theory that the US would take Iraq, that the US soldiers would be welcomed as liberators, and it would be a 30 to 90 day war which would cost no more than US$30Billion - And that Iraq oil revenues would pay for the war (i.e.: it wouldn't cost US taxpayers a cent). A few trillion US$ later..... You are still calling things "facts" when they're just your theory (aka a guess) as to how things would have played out.
With regards to the increased output of Chinese Universities; the degree one earns there may, or may not be, similar to what we have here in the West. There is a long history in China of study in Confucian institutions which awarded a Degree. Initially a Degree meant a position in the Government Bureaucracy of the time; essentially entrance into the upper class. At other times a Degree was required to enter civil society; perhaps an analogue to owning a business here in the U.S. now days. During those periods Degrees were bought rather then earned; sometimes at the explicit consent of the Dynasty in order to raise funds for extraordinary times.
The biggest fool may have the best idea, but being a fool it is stolen from him and exploited by others!
-
Sounds familiar - isn't it?
... in scientific research when you see the following:
- Sales and marketing are considered more important professions then doctor or scientist.
- Reality TV is considered an unmissable event.
- Solutions to problems involve cutting budgets to scientific organisations.
- It's popular to advertise your own ignorance.
- It's unpopular to show an aptitude for something.
- Scientific research in one area is halted by a religious minority waving an old book.
- You have to write lists of poorly thought out points to dissuade yourself from the fact science is failing in your own nation.
So if I were an American policy maker I wouldn't freak out because an uneducated populous allows you to openly serve other masters.
Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
not in science but in science "output", whatever that means. totally different.
As noted in the original article they used references as an indication of quality. On that basis China was 9th rising from 0 -> 4% of published papers.
Regarding numbers, my wife is a University Professor in France. She has a target of at least 4 papers per year. So even in the "west" quantity not quality can be an important driver to publish. One of her colleagues has been suspended for not publishing enough (well nothing at all for 5 years).
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Oh please. There was no "China" ca. 200 BC. That's as bad as believing that, because it says to in a book, Jews are allowed to steal Palestinian land.
Yes, the US is an aggressive and expansive imperial power. But so is China. China is gaining influence in or buying up parts of South America and Africa. NATO is currently taking out some of its military hardware in Libya, where it was courting influence with Ghaddafi. It still claims to own the (relatively free and democratic) republic of Taiwan. There are more ways of taking over the world than by naked military aggression. China and the US: Tweedledum and Tweedledee.
From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
....their supercomputers have cpu's ten years behind Intel's, but their science output overall will overtake the US in two years.
I think I'll wait and see if that happens, thanks.
Not much you can't do, if somebody is providing you with all of their technology and manufacturing expertise even as they shovel money in faster than you can spend it. It is too bad the Republicans and neoliberal Democrats so hate "labor" (while somehow trying to differentiate between "labor" and the American people each election cycle); without the blind spot about the capabilities of "workers" that hatred creates, they might not have made so many stupid assumptions as they were selling America out to the Chinese.
What is funniest of all to me is the masters of the aforementioned politicians are still formulating policy based upon a couple of amazingly stupid assumptions: That the dollar will always be king and that they will always control the dollar - and so control America and the world.
The dollar is just a figment of the human imagination; true wealth are resources and the ability to transform those resources into useful things. The Republicans and neoliberal Democrats have given such real and tangible assets away for great piles of an imaginary substance whose value is dependent upon whether or not those with real and tangible assets accept it.
Now that is leadership.
On the bright side, at least in continually attacking our education system the Republicans are doing what they can to ensure that we won't have to worry about catching back up with the Chinese in science.
Orwell: "In a Time of Universal Deceit, telling the Truth is a Revolutionary Act"
Not enough funding... mine more minerals ... I mean oil ...
The USA's lead in Creation Science is expected to be safe.
Thank goodness we didn't roll back the Bush era tax cut to pay for the last round of hysterical speculation by Wall Street.. Massive cuts in education on Main Street seem to be a much better prospect for the future.
"...a growing volume of research publications does not necessarily mean an increase in quality." Denial is only the first stage.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model
The true threat is Zach Weiner. If his sinister plan goes through, he'll publish Infinity papers!
http://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=2198
My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
...a machine for turning grad students into published papers.
Just ignore the Visigoths storming the seven hills. We're Number One!!
You mean like General Electric that paid a whopping ZERO in taxes?
LOSERS.
we're not descended from monkeys
The good news is that the United States will be able to find something to do for all the people excreted from its deteriorating education system, once the service jobs have all filled/dried up. We can have cheap labor creating knock-off products based upon Chinese intellectual property.
...does that mean that ALL science expenditures will stop, and EVERYTHING will be funneled into WAR CHESTS and MILITARY SPENDING? I'll bet that it does....and all scientific innovations will be driven by the military.
A near perfect topic for a troll.
Tough to quantify objectively at best.
HOWEVER, the planet needs all the positive science it can get. If we are going to continue to live on the Blue Marble, we need to figure out better ways of existing since we have the way to kill off our species and many other either slowly through denuding of resources and spoiling the very land we live on and water we drink, or rapidly by our ever evolving weapons.
Extinction for humankind is a very real possibility. I for one would like all available great minds on the planet addressing the problems irrespective of where they live. Perish the thought of another dark ages be it brought on by nuclear holocaust, global famine, or cultural ignorance and intolorance.
Since I rarely respond to these types of debates, the troll must be working....
USA is falling behind China and India. If you want to be with the winners, it is time to move.
Leslie Satenstein Montreal Quebec Canada
We need to look at some facts here. 30 years ago, China was sending students to the US to study math and science. Today we are looking at the facts that China, with a population of nearly 2 billion, has a base of the same proportion of VERY SMART KIDS that we do, and much more incentive for those same kids to do well in school, learn something, and go on to become the geniuses of the future. In china, they will better their lot--and that of their families, which is very important--if they produce, even if the people themselves become the property of the state once they have shown their ability to think and produce new ideas. Our kids, on the other hand, are more interested in facebook, twitter, tattoos, and video games than they are interested in life, in actual productive research, in finding out about how to make the universe work for them, and in making their country strong. Think about it.
If the Republikans have their way. They have zero sense of anything. I would expect that we will abandon electricity and everybody will have a coal furnace in 1 year.