Tech That Failed To Fail
itwbennett writes "There are tech fads that flare up quickly and then, pouf, they're gone (Tamagotchi, anyone?). And then there are technologies that industry bigwigs predict will follow that familiar pattern and instead end up withstanding the test of time. The Internet, for example, has famously failed to implode, despite dire predictions by Ethernet inventor Bob Metcalfe. And what about TV, the cornerstone of the American living room? Inventor Lee DeForest, known as one of the 'fathers of the electronic age,' declared TV a commercial and financial impossibility, a sentiment that was shared by 20th Century Fox exec Darryl Zanuck. And FCC engineer T.A.M. Craven was absolutely certain back in 1961 that there was 'no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States.'"
Despite all the problems, using an ATM machine beats standing in that long ass line trying to cash a check.
Why are banks open only from 10-3, the sort of hours they know everyone is at work? And why is it that at least one bank teller is on break or on lunch?
They have utterly failed to "destroy Windows on the desktop", and will continue to do so.
Despite it being a terrible browser, it managed to hold on for 10 years and is still the de facto browser for business machines.
My postings are informational and does not constitute legal advice. Act on it at your risk.
the iPhone failed to fail (in accordance with general Slashdot consensus)
I'm not a lawyer, but I play one on the Internet. Blog
No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.
Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
got stung like that many years ago. The patent wasn't really that close to what we were doing, but it was cheaper to pay out a couple of bucks per unit than to pay lawyers.
Its nothing more than a stupid marketing buzzword for the traditional server farms spread throughout the world.
I hope it fails fast and harder than the web 2.0. Another stupid marketing cliché.
It was John Logie Baird, rather than Lee DeForest, as the headline suggests...
This is also, in large part, what drives used goods exports, refurbment, and other "parallel" markets. Early adapters who upgrade are an important source of affordable technology in emerging markets (like Egypt). Americans replace CRT monitors in record turnover from 2000-2008. But in 2007, new CRT manufacturing was still 50% of all new unit production. The biggest threat to the CRT manufacturing industry, in fact, are the used CRTs displaced in wealthy nations, which are practically given away in emerging markets where 50% of the cost of a computer is the display device, and a CRT display device lasts 20 years and doesn't get stolen. This is when OEMs may get tempted to give the old technology "a little push"... I just found this article on how to create EULA agreements to keep people from reusing your ink cartridges. http://www.stroock.com/SiteFiles/Pub383.pdf Planned obsolescence much?
Gently reply
Liar, thief, cheat and scoundrel is more like it. He didn't even understand what he created and for the longest time advocated AGAINST using hard vacuum in the triode. He was, like Edison, an idiot with PR.
Failed to fail. 100k users, last I heard?
If Microsoft doesn't like it, it's probably going to be successful.
Tv is dying though. The numbers all show that.
It might not be dead yet, but it's reaching a point where you reach so few people as an advertiser on television, that you're better off buying ads online.
You may now gaze upon my greatness.
Everyone here has predicted its failure since day 1 and it will not be going away anytime soon.
There is no way in hell that I will marry a supermodel this year. Just never going to happen.
SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
provide better telephone, telegraph, radio, or television service. He's right! Land lines and OTA transmission are better for all of those things!
Everyone thought tablets didn't stand a chance and now there is the Ipad.
How about Slashdot, which is still going despite showing the same fortune cookie at the bottom for a week now?
Come on, who would want to read what some unknown did that day, with only 140 characters? /sarcasm
Saying "ATM machines" is like saying "FTP protocol." Unless you're talking about the Automated Teller Machine machines that make the Automated Teller Machines?
I thought those were dead, even apple says the iPOD revenue is declining. All the iPOD people now have iphones and iPADs so they dont need a dedicated music playback device when their phone is always in their pocket.
To be fair, a lot of the quote sources are businesspeople being dismissive of their competitors. That doesn't necessarily mean they believe what they're saying: of course Microsoft is going to say that Apple isn't a competitor. Doing anything other than that would give Apple an advantage in the marketplace.
The ______ Agenda
The iPod-is-deaders were right, but for wrong the reasons. It's true that no one listens to 1000 songs, but anyone working in tech knows that storage will expand. If this years model has 1000 song capacity, the next one will have 5000 and within a few years you'll find something that works for you.
Nevertheless, that product really is doomed, though not as an evolutionary dead-end. The iPhone replaces it.
All small gizmos are converging and for some reason, whenever application X combines with application phonecall, we end up calling the device a phone rather than an X. Phone is the "top" app (even if some people don't use that part of the device, it's still called a "phone"). An music player (even if it's an iPod) that makes phone calls isn't called a music player, a camera that makes phone calls isn't called a camera, and so on.
What is the iPod right now, but an iPhone with one less network interface? Eventually it's going to be cheaper for Apple to have one less manufacturing line, even accounting for the extra 50 cent cost of the cell network chip. And that's be the end of the iPod.
If you take a long view, Ballmer was right about the iPhone too. Apple's fractional share of the market will continue to fall. But it's a mistake to think that means Apple will lose money, because it'll be a tiny sliver of a motherfucking huge market.
"Believe me!" -- Donald Trump
It might have come with the default desktop task. I thought it was pretty stupid to have a public-facing daemon installed without even asking, but since I was just on a 14.4kbps modem at the time, I didn't care so much.
Hail Eris, full of mischief...
E pluribus sanguinem
This article is doomed to fail.
The x86 CPU architecture would be a good candidate too.
still used quite extensively. use is generally a no-brainer compared to scan/pdf/email for most offices.
Dont agree. 2007 was loong ago.
Take a look at the development hence: http://images.dailytech.com/nimage/19721_large_fpsales.jpg
10 years ago it sales were basically 100% CRT. Now, its 15%, worldwide.
Alive and well? More like sick and dying
HI O WISE PRINCE. WHT TOOK U SO DAM LONG?
In the US all ATMs are networked
For withdrawals only, not for depositing checks. Chase ATMs don't take deposits for any other bank.
If you are with a large bank, they have plenty of ATMs. Banks like Bank of America, Chase, and so on have ATMs all over the place
Unless, for example, your account is with Bank of America and you happen to be in Indiana, which doesn't have Bank of America. Or unless you're with an online-only bank such as Ally.
most people simply do electronic purchasing using credit or debit cards, cash isn't used nearly as much
Public transit in my hometown is still cash-only. Even getting cash out of an ATM isn't good enough because ATMs have nothing but $20 bills, which definitely aren't exact change for bus fare.
From my reading of these. All the technology was fine the failure predictions were based on not understanding the socialogical impact of the technology.
Google -> search
Internet -> sharing and remote access
ipod -> really personal applications
TV -> advertising
The most important part of these technologies seem to be the humans in the loop and what the technology does for the humans. The predictions failures seem to be failures in understanding the sociology. The message seems to be understanding the sociological market for the technology.
The fashion was (and is). Really the tech for MP3 players has never been a big deal for most users. "Plays my music," is as far as they care about anything. Please remember that people were happy with discmans and walkmans and shit like that.
What the iPod did was make MP3 players cool, it made them a fashion accessory. The best way to notice that is the white earbuds, with cord hanging out front where it is visible. Their commercials show this and it is the style that sold. An iPod is fashionable and has thing like the white earbuds so that you can proclaim ownership and show off the fashion. Heck when the iPod came out all of a sudden high end earbud manufacturers suddenly had a demand for white earbuds. They'd always been a darker colour before since being understated was what people wanted. However white earbuds were a fashion statement. People wanted better sound, but only if they could still have the iPod fashion going.
That is why the iPod was so successful. Other MP3 players were just music players so people really didn't give a shit more than they had before. However the iPod was a fashion accessory that you had to have.
Then of course once it started to take off you got one of those nice positive feedback loops. People didn't know about MP3 players, they knew about iPods. If you wanted a music player you got an iPod simply because that was all you knew, even if there were no fashion concerns. An "Everyone uses it because everyone uses it," sort of situation.
Technology was never the big factor, and in consumer electronics that can sometimes be the case.
Not really much of a story. "Predicting the future is hard. Film at 11." Even smart people are wrong all the time.
Dear Slashdot: next time you want to mess with the site, add a rich-text editor for comments.
Take a gander at this paper on the subject. Most people have about a 50/50 shot or worse at accurately predicting binary events. The worse part is interesting--that some people are just consistently terrible.
The truth is, you have to have incredibly detailed knowledge about a subject and a philosophic outlook on it that's appropriate. Technological change is especially hairy because there's a lot exciting technology that ends up getting killed by socio-cultural or political reasons. For instance, in the late 70's it was unthinkable that we wouldn't have a moonbase by 2010, but no one was looking at a little defense project called ARPANET. Ooops.
I'm no expert on this shit, so I can't speculate about what's going to be hot in the future. I thought the iPad was stupid, and I think Dark Matter is a bunch of bullshit. I also think Kurzweil is awfully optimistic about the Singularity. That said, I'm aware of my own track record,on prognostication, and unless it's about healthcare IT (my field), I'm ready to be as surprised as IBM was when they ended up having a worldwide market for more than 5 computers.
Saying "ATM machines" is like saying "FTP protocol."
Repeating the noun is good for disambiguating them from Asynchronous Transfer Mode or [expletive] The Police.
Where do they find so many little people to man all those ATMs?
Sadly, I have heard people use the argument that "the experts miss calls like this one" to point to how we can achieve Faster-Than-Light once we start to "think outside the box".
None of these missed calls, esp. satellite radio, defy the known physics of their day. Those FTL-friendly people see FTL as a mere 'technological breakthrough."
For my entire life I've been told the paperless office is arriving and soon people will relegate printers, faxes, and xerox machines to wherever telegraph sounders and stock market tickers have been landfilled. For at least thirty years I've heard how in just short five years, people won't even remember the concept of a "printer" or a "photocopier".
The only casualty I've seen is the FAX. With a couple exceptions, for example, a couple years ago my health insurance required something FAXed to them... I'm like, who even owns a FAX anymore? Kind of like email, nothing ever arrives anymore but endless spam. I ended up having to snail mail it.
"Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
"And FCC engineer T.A.M. Craven was absolutely certain back in 1961 that there was 'no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States."
And in a sense, he's completely right. It hasn't really improved :)
Life is great! (as told by Lady Susan)
When I first heard about Facebook/Myspace/etc... a decade ago I thought they'd last about 15 minutes. Who in their right mind would publish the most intimate details of their private lives on the internet for the world to read?
I'm over 40, and I have no trouble operating an ATM. In fact my long delays usually come from teens and twenty-somethings who always run their account down to zero, and have to resort to multiple balance checks before they can withdraw a paltry $20, or the occasional asshole who has to balance his checkbook before he moves out of the way so I can access a drive through ATM.
It you want to say TV isn't a failure, then cut off CAFR funding for it. Cut off Obama's giveaway to the networks. Let's have the FCC panel made up of engineers who the public votes in, not the one's the POTUS appoints. Today you have to get your daily dose of propaganda BS along with your local news (which could possibly warn if a tsunami is on the way) what a nasty trade off, listening to how jobs are so good, and the economy is recovering, and OBL shot and dumped at sea, just to try to know if the rain might have nuclear fallout or if some earthquake has a 100' wave headed your way. Let us not forget the switch to DTV which sucks more money people don't have. Plus when it's really windy from the haarp technology mucking with the weather, the DTV packets break up. Where in analog, it was just snow and noise, now it's BSOD (black screen of death)
Ya want to talk about the telcos? Start with NSA fios splitters, move on to wiretaps, spying, and all the rest of the crap. You couldn't GIVE me a mobile phone.
You want to talk about the internet and law? Miserable failure. *.AA , DMCA, streaming stations, copyright/patent trolls, SEO blackhats, the intelligence community spying, Chamber of Commerce, facebook. You can't look me in the eye and tell me that's not a failure for the US Constitution which is now intermittent.
When the monetary system financial terrorism come to fruition and mark to market is realized and the funding sources are added up, and the financial terrorists are prosecuted, these technologies will be a failure. It's just that it isn't measured this way currently because of the corruption and payola.
Watch: sock puppet / trolls will vote this message off the radar they don't like the truth.
Did Tamagotchi fail? Or did it just *ahem* evolve into Pokemon and Nintendogs?
And what kind of an example is Tamagotchi in the first place? Tamagotchi wasn't a tech, it was just a particular application of an existing tech that had been around a long time, in fact by that point it was practically retro. All it did was make the little hand-held LCD games that had gone out of vogue around the release of the GameBoy briefly popular again by coming up with a novel new style of game.
This Space Intentionally Left Blank
Link to single-page printable version without ads.
These "Top N" lists, one ad-laden page per item, are mostly ad and link farms. If you have to mention them in a Slashdot article, link to the print page. If there's no page, don't link at all.
Slashdot is doomed to the scrap heap.
Maybe Computers will never be as intelligent as Humans.
For sure they won't ever become so stupid. [VR-1988]
First of all, Metcalfe is a self-important asshole. He's up there with Dvorak in the most inept prognosticators category. The Internet, as we call it, had a couple of decades under its belt by the time Metcalfe made his rude noises about it. The Internet existed for a long time, it was the introduction of the ISP that was ultimately needed to get it to a wider audience. I'll wager you could find without too much difficulty a half dozen futurists and SciFi authors who foresaw a global information network.
As to satellites, maybe I'm looking at this from the point of view of a half century of satellite technology, but it strikes me as being pretty frigging obvious that once you can get a transmitter/repeater into orbit, you're in the game.
I don't view guys like Metcalfe and Dvorak as futurists, I just view them as contrarians who attack any new(ish) tech in the hopes that maybe they'll be right and look really smart. Ultimately, of course, they just look like contrarian morons.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
Reminds me of the first of Clarke's three laws:
"When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong."
Be skeptical, but never be too quick to dismiss an idea. When I first saw Mosiac back in college, I had a buddy (a Microsofty at the time) that thought I was being preposterous with my assertion that TV Guide and other information would soon be available on the Internet. "Who is going to spend time putting all that information into a computer?!?" he said. More recently, I thought Twitter would stop being interesting within two years of its launch. Turns out we have more free time than I imagined.
RS232 communication will disappear soon (from January 1996, the birth of commercial USB). ... a ... RS232 console, packaged in some way!
And infact all major professional networking devices have a
Maybe Computers will never be as intelligent as Humans.
For sure they won't ever become so stupid. [VR-1988]
He couldnt even explain his own patent in court.
Edwin Armstrong invented the invention that DeForest was best known for
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edwin_Howard_Armstrong
What annoys me more is the equally sick and dying 4:3 flatpanel industry.
The ridiculous economies of scale involved in producing LCD TV panels mean that a decent computer panel is harder to come by. As long as you don't mind a low vertical resolution of just over 1000 pixels, you're in luck, because they are cheaper than ever. But if you actually want progress, you need to splash some serious cash.
I mean, FFS, I was using a 1600x1200 panel when my laptop had Windows NT on it. I'm searching through the HP website looking at laptops. I can't seem to find a screen with a vertical resolution above 768 pixels on anything less than £1000 ; and it's a bloody struggle to even tell what the resolution on most of the higher end models is. "HD"? Well, some people claimed 768 was HD, so forgive me for not trusting that that means anything... grrrr.
As some of you young'uns may not know, during WWII, Galbraith, as a very young economists, was given control over the OPA - the federal office that set mandatory prices and wages during the war.
After the war, JKG led the group that evaluated how bombing of germany affected the Nazis ability to carry out the war; famously, the group found that bombing had almost no effect.
somewhere galbraith, a very amusing writer, has a short piece call "advice to a young beauraucrate (sic)". One of his rules is to never trust experts - no matter how firmly they state their opinions, they can always be wrong.
I for one am greatly disappointed that movie theater projection quality is no better now than it was in the 1970s (for the most part).
I am still embarrassed about it. Yes, I was sure GSM would never fly. All those base stations - too expensive - bad idea, I said.
What the iPod did was make MP3 players cool, it made them a fashion accessory.
No, it made them easy and practical for ordinary people.
Before the iPod, the only people who bothered with MP3 players were geeks who already had all their CDs ripped to MP3s (or had pirated them from Napster.) Ordinary people were perfectly happy with their existing portable CD players and CD collections, because pre-iPod MP3 players were a world of hurt.
Most MP3 players before the iPod had barely any more capacity than portable CD players. Those that did have large capacities had only USB 1.1 connectivity, so they were way too slow to load up. Those large capacity players were also too huge to fit in a normal jeans pocket. Most didn't have screens that could show song names or playlists (only six-segment numeric displays.) Most didn't have playlist capability at all. All of them had frustratingly slow controls with arrow-key navigation. All of them required clunky software to load up. (Yes, worse than iTunes. Much worse. You'd have one program to rip music, and a seperate program to load it onto the player. Neither was aware of the other.)
Apple succeeded because it got the MP3 player right. Large capacity in a small form factor with fast FireWire (later USB2) loading. Quick and easy navigation with a big screen and scroll wheel. Integrated ripping and loading software on the PC side.
This is the sort of thing geeks don't notice and don't remember. If it's not a numeric specification, they forget it exists.
the idea that a 5gb mp3 player was at all unusual at the *time the ipod was launched* is BS. There were lots of players. Focusing on hardware you totally miss the whole jobs shtick: (1) make it look nice; from the time the 2st cave man or cave woman put red dye on their hair, people have been willing to pay a premium for "luxury" whatever that happens to be at the time; (2) create an app that does something - in this case, easy to do music; prior to the ipod, it was hard (in the sense of the proverbial slashdot grandmother) to put mp3s on your player - with itunes, it was click and play.
If you look at apple, the term gilded cage really applies; jobs understands the number one rule of sales people are lazy, if you cater to their lazyness you will do well.
Tellers (or phone customer service reps) don't have to guess if you are a profitable customer; the computer tells them this outright. Many years ago, I was reading about a shift at a FirstUSA (now Chase) call center, and every rep had a "traffic light" appear when the customer's file came up. That light would tell them if it was a "good" customer (and therefore deserving of obsequious (and time consuming) service, fee waivers, etc.) or a "poor" customer (and deserving the bare minimum of efficient service, no waivers for anything, etc.)
Naturally, "good" was either high-volume pay-every-month (and therefore a source of fee income), or maxed out (and paying on time.) "Bad" was small-volume, paid every month (and therefore expensive due to account overhead) or an erratic payer (and therefore likely stuck no matter how ruthless the bank was with fees.)
He said: "Men might as well project a voyage to the Moon as attempt to employ steam navigation against the stormy North Atlantic Ocean."
The mistake people do is judging things out of their own personally perceived context without taking into account that the context itself can change thanks to the product. The internet itself changed our way of communicating in a way that was very hard to predict.
You cant really look at all products with only today's timeslice of our society in mind and expect to be right on the money.
HTTP/1.1 400
Once iTunes was available for Windows, it was all over. (Prior to this, MP3 players were still a competitive market.) When I replaced my first MP3 player (a discman-shaped Nomad), I first replaced it with another Nomad. Nasty hardware problem, so back to the store it went. Next attempt was an iRiver unit. Absolutely fantastic hardware, a remote with a display, great battery life; absolutely crap software. No ripping program, no organizing software, strange filename limitations, limited tagging support, no progressive-speed scrolling. At that point, I just gave up and bought an iPod and haven't looked back since.
Philo Farnsworth invented Television. Lee Defoest invented the Audion tube, which enabled broadcasting.
And FCC engineer T.A.M. Craven was absolutely certain back in 1961 that there was 'no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States.'"
Given the atmospheric astrophysics reasons requiring the use of GHz microwave bands, and that era's "bear skins and baling wire" solid state microwave RF technology level, he was correct. My grandfathers EE friends would have fallen out of their chairs if they could see the 2010 catalog and pricelist of a place like minicircuits.
"Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
Phone is the "top" app (even if some people don't use that part of the device, it's still called a "phone").
And you're still charged for that part of the device even if you don't use it. Or is there a "music player" running OHA Android (which comes with Android Market), as opposed to the AOSP Android on the Archos 43 Internet Tablet (which comes with the far smaller selection of AppsLib)?
extra 50 cent cost of the cell network chip
Then why does an iPhone 4 + ETF still cost hundreds of USD more than an iPod touch 4?
There's really no sense using anything else than Windows [or one of the locked set-top consoles] for gaming
Amazon Appstore, Android Market, AppsLib, and SlideME Application Manager all sell games for what amounts to a heavily customized distribution of Linux.
Yes, but according to Digitimes, the overall volume of display units has grown staggeringly, so 15% of today's market not quite as small in relation to 12 years ago as it looks - there are still 3-4 furnaces making brand new CRTs. The other hidden thing is that the continued reuse of the CRTs replaced by LCDs is not in the DailyTech article. Entire factories are running, some using 5,000 used CRTs per day to make new ones. I'm not betting on new CRTs being made, I was just making the point that one man's obsolete is another man's high tech, and the 3 billion people who earn roughly 3 thousand dollars per year (3B3K) tends to get ignored and can sustain a technology far longer than you'd expect standing inside a Best Buy. I'm not saying they will outlive the LED, but the CRT has definitely outlived the Plasma, right?
Gently reply
Lenovo defines HD as 1366 x 768, HD+ as 1600 x 900, and FHD as 1920 x 1080. (Available on the T420/T520.)
And frankly, 1920x1080 on a 15" LCD is pretty small, I'd go with the 1600x900 instead for the slightly larger pixel size.
Wolde you bothe eate your cake, and have your cake?
Quit taking that quote out of context! The man was referring to home automation--computers running everything in the home. The idea of a computer in the home for normal people to use quite appealed to him, and in fact, used to promote the idea.
The bitter lessons of a veteran coder: http://bitterprogrammer.blogspot.com
Inventor Lee DeForest, known as one of the 'fathers of the electronic age,' declared TV a commercial and financial impossibility, a sentiment that was shared by 20th Century Fox exec Darryl Zanuck
Quotes out of context are useless.
How to fund radio production was an open debate in the twenties.
There was no easy way for a commercial sponsor to estimate the return on his investment.
Television productions would have to fully staged and rehearsed - with sets, props, costumes and so on.
Your actors and production crews can't arrive in shirtsleeves for a single afternoon reading and an early evening performance.
No matter how punishing the schedule, you are going to need them for the better part of a week.
Which means that you won't get a commitment from the box office star and top-flight backstage talent if all you can offer is union scale.
Because the banks sees their existence as dependent on businesses. Personal account holders (aka the "little people") should be grateful that they even acknowledge their existence. From their perspective, the "little people" are in no position to demand or expect anything but should be on their knee and thank the banks for taking their money through endless service charges.
ELOI, ELOI, LAMA SABACHTHANI!?
if you don't like it, then perhaps you need to move to chinna where you might find some more "comrades" in arms.
In the 80s I thought the cd would fail miserably and quickly be replaced by a more durable storage method. I guess I was wrong about the quickly part since they are still around.
Ok, maybe the correct quote is "I'm not dead yet". My point is not that they are going to be made forever, but they are still a multibillion dollar market and they outlived plasma screens and LCDs on your chart have declined faster than CRTs have. I guess the LED-LCDs may take them out finally. But CRTs being made today (still 50% of sales in India) last for 20 years, and may be around for a long time. Also note on your chart the stubborn little flat spot from 2008-2010... the dip starting on 2011 on is a prediction, and that same prediction was made for 2008-2010 in ISuppli back in 2007 (which showed LCDs going in the opposite direction). Every year they predict steep CRT declines, and every year they are surprised by the 3 billion people earning $3k per year. They'll go away eventually just because the OEMs want to stop making them and will stop retooling the CRT furnaces, but it's still a good candidate for this tremendously important /. survey. Kind of like the end of Monty Python's "Bring Out Your Dead" skit, it may take a bang on the head.
Gently reply
They were both predicted to fail in spectacular fashion due to the already entrenched CDs and VCR cassettes.
Erm, this was postulated by (respectively) RIAA and MPAA...
Both live and strive to this day, despite the industry's best (and worst) efforts.
First rule of holes; When in one, stop digging.
Article says the following products/concepts succeeded when they were predicted to fail.
1) iPod (Portable Digital Media Player)
2) Internet
3) Personal Computer
4) Television
5) Google (Minimalist Internet Interfacing, unobstructive advertising)
6) Android, iPhone (Smartphones)
Anyone who predicted the failure of the above was obviously WAY too far removed from the target audience to be worth his/her salt.
1) Portable Digital Media Player -- This was an obvious predictable survivor. The first realistic portable music device was the cassette player (Sony Walkman, notably). It was a hit and widely emulated. Then came the portable CD player (Sony Discman, notably). It was a hit and widely emulated. It was better than the cassette player because it offered higher-quality sound and greater convenience (if at the initial cost of "skipping" risk). Then came the MP3 player-- a device that stored CD-quality music on flash memory. It had no moving parts and great battery life. Apple then put forth the iPod (early iterations had moving parts) which was a fashion smash hit. Its staying power came from the need for the next step in portable music evolution and, surprisingly, because of its unforeseeable status as a fashion accessory.
2) The internet, even at its earliest incarnation, was a means of connecting people of similar minds and interests for communication. Advances in communication always survive and this advance combined the opportunity for well-thought letter-style communication at telephone speed. Furthermore, it became a marketplace for wares and a means of education. Yes, and adult entertainment. Its survival was a no-brainer.
3) Whoever said the PC wouldn't survive did not understand what a PC nor what digital computing was. It's the same as someone saying "books" would not survive because the person didn't understand that paper could transmit information beyond the death of a writer.
4) Television... jeez. People love entertainment. Jokes, stories, gossip, games, races, drama, fantasy -- all were hits on stage, in person, and in books. The person who said TV wouldn't last had no understanding of people.
5) Google survived initially because while everyone was annoying users with massive front-page bloat and forceful marketing/advertising, Google was simple. Google provided what the intelligent and focused internet user market wanted- a simple and efficient search engine. Word of their apparent search honest spread like wildfire and thus came the demise of the all-encompassing "web portal".
6) Smartphones survive for a few reasons: the popularity of social exhibitionism/voyeurism, new generation reliance on internet connectivity to provide solutions, and the wow-factor of touchscreens and pretty UIs. They will continue to survive so long as the touchscreen remains the best affordable visual interface... though I'd really prefer the return of buttons... they just work.
Way back when, in my undergrad days, I earned a bit of extra money by working in the university library. One thing that was always made clear was that you had to put books and stuff back on the shelf in the right place, because if you put them in the wrong place it was unlikely anybody would ever find them again. You might as well throw them away.
The key is searching, finding things. I thought it was pretty obvious that anybody who could come up with a better way to find things on the internet would make a buttload of money. That better way, for the moment at least, is Google.
...laura
COBOL and MS Access?
... oops, not that kind of surfing.
Telephone pole-mounted fire alarm boxes should be gone by now. Telephones should have killed them. Then cell phones. But they refuse to die off completely, and the fire departments of some cities fight to keep them.
They exist not simply because of nostalgia, but because they just work. Quite well, actually. The system in Boston has experienced uptime of over a century. Nothing has ever managed to shut it down. Even when the telephone systems fail, cell phone towers stop working and there is absolutely no other way to communicate, the boxes remain functional and the ultimate insurance policy. No matter what happens, or where you are at any given moment, you will be able to get help if you need it. All thanks to 19th century telegraph technology. If your city is considering getting rid of them to save a few bucks, you might want to consider asking them not to.
They're not just useful for fires. Many NYC boxes offer the user a choice between fire / police and medical options.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjSDAUykkzQ This is a must watch video for these kind of things I guess
Never seen Steve Ballmer quoted so often in one article.
Nuff said.
Other "tech" not dying:
- can openers ... ...
- plastic bottles
- paper cone speakers with copper voice coils and ceramic magnets
- automobile tires
- internal combustion engine
- silicon semiconductors
- latex paint, acrylic lacquer
- hammers, nails, nuts, bolts
- silica-based glass for glassware and windows
- ceramic flush toilets with integrated tank
- electric baseboard heaters
- air compressors and related tools: ratchets, paint guns, grinders,
-
For pixels the rule is: The smaller, the better. Ideally, you shouldn't see individual pixels at all.
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
the idea that a 5gb mp3 player was at all unusual at the *time the ipod was launched* is BS. There were lots of players. Focusing on hardware you totally miss the whole jobs shtick: (1) make it look nice; from the time the 2st cave man or cave woman put red dye on their hair, people have been willing to pay a premium for "luxury" whatever that happens to be at the time; (2) create an app that does something - in this case, easy to do music; prior to the ipod, it was hard (in the sense of the proverbial slashdot grandmother) to put mp3s on your player - with itunes, it was click and play.
You've got it backwards. Jobs' shtick is that most people (especially back then) didn't have much more than 5GB of music. Sure, the warez kids laughed at it, but Jobs had this crazy insight to target people who actually had money to buy things with.
Four of the six predicted failures were based on quotes from Steve Ballmer and Bill Gates. Maybe the article should have been "Stupid Quotes from Ballmer and Gates."
If I used a sig over again, would anyone notice?
Text messages, limited to 140 characters because they literally fit into a header field of a cell phone packet, are a bit of a hack. Yet here we are, years later, still using the very same system (and paying up the nose for the privilege in many cases!). But you know that anyone with a cell phone can receive a text (though you might be costing them $0.05-$0.10), you still can't be sure about its alternatives. IM clients require an always-connected client, whether that client exists on the phone itself (battery draining to retain that IP connection) or a server (that's how IM+ works for the ipod/iphone/ipad), and tend to have "push" technologies which are inferior to the built-in text messaging system.
So we still have a system where you vote for things, send donations to charities, and communicate entire long IM-like conversations. The limit on characters proved so popular as to give us Twitter (of course, it helps that you can tweet as a text message). The legacy of the system is not just its stupid overcharging, but modifying online language to be even more concise (to put it generously) than it would have been otherwise. And I don't see it dying for years.
"The universe seems neither benign nor hostile, merely indifferent." --Carl Sagan
I absolutely feel your pain. When purchasing a new laptop, I was coming from a 14.1" Thinkpad T43 with a resolution of 1400 x 1050 (it went higher, but you had to scroll). I wanted something better than 1366 x 768 resolution, but with every manufacturer I had to go to a 17.3" screen to get it. I ended up with a huge "laptop" just to get 1600 x 900. It is frustrating to lose so much vertical space to gain some horizontal that I really don't need anyway (few web pages actually use that wide screen space well). Some games will leverage it, but I'd have been much happier with a 4:3 ratio with better resolution.
Funtime Candy Wow! - my plan for eventually conquering Japan.
While its nice to see Lenovo offering those higher resolutions, neither HD+ nor FHD is available for under 1000 quid. Considering he used have better than FHD before, it sure would be nice if new computers weren't a downgrade.
Funtime Candy Wow! - my plan for eventually conquering Japan.
Around here, many banks are open until 4 or 5, and the Chase branches are open until 6.
The in-a-grocery-store Citizens branches keep even longer hours.
ATMs? Sometimes I want/need something besides $20s. Direct deposit is a great way to cut down on the hassle of cashing/depositing checks though.
You can tell which branches were built before the ATM era by all the now-extra teller stations
P.S.
* Automated Teller Machine machine?
I listen to both RIAA and non-RIAA stuff if I like the music, tangential business/politics nonwithstanding.
In most of those cases, it's a bunch of marketing nonsense. Yeah, Microsoft people were poo-pooing the ipod and the internet. It wasn't a bad prediction, though, it was just marketing. If you can't cash in, try hard to undermind confidence and interest in your competitors products... right up until you have something competetive to sell, then it's the next big thing, and you're the visionary bringing it to market...
Besides, it's a short, worthless article. Try this one instead;
http://listverse.com/2007/10/28/top-30-failed-technology-predictions/
Slashdot gets worse every day... Pipedot: News for nerds, without the corporate slant
The other thing I dislike about the self-checkouts is that if you pay by credit card + signature, it requires a human to come and verify your signature, swipe their access card, enter their pin, then approve it. So I lose time trying to get their attention then waiting for them to do all that.
I also dislike the idea of doing the store's work for them and still paying the same amount. If they charged less for the self service checkout I would use it.
I like my coffee the way I like my women - roasted and ground up into little tiny pieces.
What about FAT(32) ? It's still common to find this format on many devices (GPS, digicams,...) even though it's now more than 20 years old !
Period.