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Seismologists Tried For Manslaughter For Not Predicting Earthquake
mcgrew writes "From LiveScience: 'Earthquake prediction can be a grave, and faulty science, and in the case of Italian seismologists who are being tried for the manslaughter of the people who died in the 2009 L'Aquila quake, it can have legal consequences.' A group of seven, including six seismologists and a government official, reportedly didn't alert the public ahead of time of the risk of the L'Aquila earthquake, which occurred on April 6 of that year, killing around 300 people, according to the US Geological Survey."
Following a committee meeting just a week before the quake, some members of the group assured the public that they were in no danger.
If this is true, this is decidedly different from telling the public that they don't know whether there is any danger. Saying "I can't predict earthquakes" is fine. Saying "You are in no danger" would probably be interpreted differently than "We have no indications that you are at an elevated risk."
In the aftermath of the quake, which killed 309 people, many citizens said that these reassurances were the reason they did not take precautionary measures, such as leaving their homes.
More specifically, the accusation focuses on a statement made at a press conference on 31 March 2009 by Bernardo De Bernardinis, who was then deputy technical head of Italy's Civil Protection Agency and is now president of the Institute for Environmental Protection and Research in Rome. "The scientific community tells me there is no danger," he said, "because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favourable".
Hasn't it been established that movement of GPS ground stations (slippage) indicates increased risk of earthquakes? That was the basis for claims that the New Madrid fault line is overestimated ... and the above quote employs the exact opposite logic.
It appears that the crux of this case rests upon "he told me to say" versus "it's not our job to tell the public." But the civil servant who "summed" up the scientist's summary appears to have fallen victim to treating this like a forecasting of the weather. He will probably regret maintaining a neutral report and should have just said "inconclusive" instead of "looks good."
Vincenzo Vittorini, a physician in L'Aquila whose wife and daughter were killed in the earthquake and who is now president of the local victims' association '309 Martiri' (309 Martyrs), hopes the trial will lead to a thorough investigation into what went wrong in those days. "Nobody here wants to put science in the dock," he says. "We all know that the earthquake could not be predicted, and that evacuation was not an option. All we wanted was clearer information on risks in order to make our choices".
He says that the committee had precious information that was not passed on to citizens, for example on which buildings were most likely to collapse in the event of a strong earthquake. Vittorini thinks that those charged are not the only ones to blame, and that further investigations might eventually place greater responsibilities on politicians at the local and national level.
Indeed, this sounds to me more like a case against Italy's Civil Protection Agency instead of scientists and seismologists. Not that they couldn't predict the quake but general failure to provide earthquake plans and proper materials/handouts/PSAs to the public.
My work here is dung.
Maybe the professors who taught the seismologists back in university should be tried for manslaughter, too, for not properly training their students to properly detect and report earthquakes.
Maybe the public safety authorities should all be fired for failing to regularly consult the seismologists regarding possible upcoming earthquakes.
Maybe all psychics in the country should be arrested and arraigned for murder, for not predicting the deadly temblor.
Or, maybe the Italians should just accept that natural disasters happen. Geeze, Louise.
It's worth noting that according to Wikipedia, there were several thousand foreshocks and aftershocks since December 2008" in that area. Doesn't that suggest that there was adequate warning that a quake could strike at any minute?
it's = "it is"; its = possessive. E.g., it's flapping its wings.
Shenanigans!! Double shenanigans!
This is why I hate gambling!
What is the penalty if they had erred on the side of caution and had been wrong? Loss of job? Loss of reputation?
It would have cost millions to plan, evacuate, etc...
Holding people liable for an act of nature is a dangerous precedent.
Yikes!
"Helping to keep you two steps ahead of the Thought Police!"
Its not like earth quake predictions are accurate. If they cried "wolf" every time they thought there MIGHT be a big earth quake, it would be useless information.
"Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
Naturally, as a Slashdot reader, I haven't read the article for the operational details. Nonetheless, a big defect in the human animal is the omission bias, and an obvious way around this seems to be to actually punish those who don't fulfill things which may, or should be, their responsibility. The second step is to get this to finance.
Oh, well... Never mind.
"Flyin' in just a sweet place,
Never been known to fail..."
Somethings are completely below acceptable standard. Like poor Slashdot editorial care.
It is completely different to "not predict a earthquake" to "predict that it will not happen".
These specialists PREDICTED that there would be no problem.
Can we get basic logic right, please?
This is a case of scientific hubris (belief in self-ability to predict things) that cost many lives. Now it has been joined by lack of basic logic and linguistics here in Slashdot.
What a dis-service to science.
Talking about proper science, may I suggest reading say, The Black Swan?
Up next will be people that only read sensational articles and don't try to find out what really happened before posting outraged comments.
1. Did they know the earthquake was coming?
2. If they knew it was coming, did they tell people they would be safe?
All indications are that they knew the earthquake was coming and that they told the people they were safe. If this is true, then they should be charged. Now, if they were suppressed by someone "above them" then they need to say so. But for these people to say "We think there is an earthquake coming but it will be mild, so you can just go about your business" is irresponsible.
This is why we have tornado watches and tornado warnings. Most often, a "watch" condition is all you will ever hear or see as tornadoes can form and dissipate before reporting a warning can ever occur. A watch, of course, indicates that conditions for a tornado to occur are favorable.
I think that if they believed the conditions for an earthquake were favorable, they should have warned the people accordingly even if they stated something like "potential for damage is uncertain." Of course, the legality of statements like that in Italy are unknown to me, but in the US, I'm pretty sure one's ass would be covered well enough.
Earthquake prediction can be a faulty science
I see what you did there...
As I understood the initial reports, the issue is that the committee did not consider the relevant data with sufficient attention, ie. lack of due care. Had they taken sufficient care and predicted "no problem" then they would have had a valid defense in the unpredictability of earthquakes. Not even trying to interpret the available data makes open to accusations of negligence.
Only outlaws will incorrectly predict earthquakes.
If it were me I'd start releasing automated warnings every morning.
If an expert gives you advice based on the best of their knowledge, they are not liable. I mean, if a driving instructor tells you not to swerve, and you hit an old lady as a result, does the old lady's family sue the driving instructor?? No... Similarly, people shouldn't sue scientists that work with uncertainty. I hate this politically correct BS which forces experts to put disclaimers in front of everything they say. If you listen to an earthquake expert and die, it's your fault. Don't go blaming anyone else. Obviously the expert is liable if they were negligent, but as far as I can tell they weren't in this case.
Seismology can be a faulty science, and the science of predicting when the ground shakes is not completely understood. Groundbreaking research needs to be done before it can be done with any accuracy. Its not the scientists fault! Seismology is rock hard science to crack!
April Fools is over 10 months away... But this has to be a joke. I know Europe often have kangaroo courts, but this is ridiculous! Are we going to charge The Weather Channel for hurricane and tornado deaths now?
There needs to be a disclaimer on every weather and planetary report, "Warning, you could die of an 'act of god' today for no other reason that you are in the wrong place at the wrong time. This broadcast makes no guarantees of safety. Consult a doctor before taking action. No batteries included. See store for details."
After all the scandals in France and Italy over these past few years, this lowers my view of Italy to a new low, like some back water country performing witch trials.
I8-D
This is my idea for Psychics: whenever some sort of disaster happens and a Psychic comes along claiming to have predicted it, unless he can produce any evidence showing that he tried to warn people beforehand with specific warnings, he should be thrown into prison as responsible for those lives.
Look where all this talking got us, baby.
What if someone made a car analogy that made no sense?
Talk about a chilling effect on scientific research.. The next thing you will be doing is suing Doctors if they get a diagnosis wrong, oh wait we are doing that.
For the love of $deity, please let the judge hand out some sensible judgment. Else the only thing you'll ever get to hear from geologists is scaremongering lest they be liable should the earth tremble somewhere. How do you expect to get sensible predictions if you sue if they happen to be wrong?
Imagine you're a weatherman and get sued if it rains after you predict sunshine. So what are you going to predict? Exactly. Rain. All year long. No matter what your data says.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
That is seriously stupid! It's an inexact science. How can they possibly be held responsible?
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What a load of fucking bullshit.
Idiocracy? No, Italy.
"Sesmologists predict a major quake tomorrow. Also, the day after tomorrow. The day after that as well. In fact, they predict major quakes every single goddamn day from now until for ever and ever."
in the future, seismologists will be unwilling to say people aren't in danger, and causation them to take precautions. When people leave, disrupting routine activity, and nothing happens they will yell at the seismologists and eventually ignore warnings. then, when it really happens, the seismologists can say "we warned you." Of course, some legal wiz will decide it's the seismologists fault that the event didn't happen and hold them responsible for the losses caused by people leaving or panicking.
I'm a consultant - I convert gibberish into cash-flow.
the original Christian version of the Taliban. One would have to expect occasional insanity. Here's hoping there are more sane people than crazies.
I guess nothing has changed since the days of Gallileo.
Italian government remains corrupt top-to-bottom, its judiciary remains primitive banging-rocks-together screwheads. This isn't just one knuckle-dragging "judge"; this so-called "investigation" has been going on for over a year. Hundreds of people have had an opportunity to say "Questo è stupido, e si ferma subito." None have. Any scientists left in that pit of willful ignorance should get out, and get out now, because the tort lawyers are coming. High-tech companies should abandon Italy before they too are targeted my the government extortion machine and--
Oh wait. Too late. Skilled Italian scientists and engineers, the rest of the world will happily take you in. I'm sure there are many of you, and we need you. Your own country doesn't want you, though. The rest of us? We should stay the hell out of Italy lest we be similarly targeted.
Everybody gets what the majority deserves.
Only outlaws will incorrectly predict earthquakes.
More importantly, if you artificially create a liability for scientists in a certain field, there will be less scientists willing to work in said field and be held liable, and thus less research and advancements in that field. Do they want less accurate predictions of earthquakes?
Also note: sometimes mass hysteria + earthquake is less dangerous than just the earthquake... Perhaps they wanted to warn everyone, but were secretly advised not to.
What? This sounds like something that would happen here in America. Somehow, its all the seismologists' fault. What? What kind of a whiney, victimized brain does it take to come up with a reason to charge someone with manslaughter in this case. Earthquakes are not easily predicted and certainly not accurately. The statements from the Seismologists should be listened to but with understanding that they are likely off (at least to some extent). Somehow, these cases should be thrown right out the door and not one penny should go to the "victim" families. As for the charges, the judge in this case should drop them and dismiss everyone and throw this case right out the door. Of course, I am sure the lawyers are licking their chops at the chance to make a fast buck off the "victims" like scavengers picking dead bones in the desert somewhere. As usual. Apparently, Itlalians and Italian politicians and lawyers are just as dumb and greedy as they sometimes are in America.
Italian Law.
Could that be the original oxymoron?
Italian Judge Giuseppe Romano Gargarella has just been charged for failing to warn Bernardo De Bernardis that this would happen before De Bernardis accepted his current job with the Great Risks Commission.
Every time they say "X" and it turns out that "X" is false, they go to jail.
Who's going to volunteer to be the next disaster prediction expert when you wind up imprisoned for it? Yeah, mistakes suck -- but without them, you'll NEVER have a warning.
Can we get the Global Warming scientists next? After all, we're set to spends hundreds of billions of dollars fighting Global Warming over the next decades. If they're wrong, can we get a refund?
"It's the height of ridiculousness to say for those 9 lines you get hundreds of millions."
"might be 0.999...", but it will never be 1. In fact, it would never even reach 0.999... except on some computer statistical printout, and even then due to a math error. Survivability is never equal to 1. If you are one who believes 0.999... = 1, then survivability is never equal to 0.999... either.
The reason I use 0.999... (which you would know the contraversy around it, and would therefore know why I used it and not 1) is to point to the fallacy to say 0.999... = 1, and that is the same whereby a scientist might "guarantee" survivability simply because the statistics appear to be radically in favor of that conclusion.
I8-D
I am sure seismologists are like other scientists and talk in terms of the probability of an event happening - thus no scientist is every certain of something, they merely talk of most likely outcomes and most likely explanations based on current information and models. However, when the media and other public sources get their hands on the information, they like to turn them into absolutes - and thus if a scientist says "there is an 80% chance of such-and-such happening" and it causes a panic, they are liable for the damages based on the information to provide. However, if they say it is unlikely it gets reported as "all clear" and then suddenly they are liable for the damages when it does happen!
If such a case was won, it would have a chilling effect on science in the region. Maybe scientists would continue to do research, but you would make it private and never release it to the public due to liability issues - and then what's the point. We'll be back to having the only predictors be religious nutcases like Mr. Rapture is coming in 1994, oops early 2011... oops late 2011, I guarantee it giving us the essential information. While this might make the Roman Catholic church and other religious institutions quite happy, I actually prefer the physics and chemistry that make my eyeglasses and contacts (and in the future, corrective laser eye surgery) along with the pharmaceutical industry that makes my wife's asthma medication over some clergyman's laying of hands. Lets hope the courts throw this one out and instead chooses to go after those who violated the building codes instead...
This is absolutely ridiculous! How can scientists be tried for manslaughter when seismology is an imperfect science? Should we all be tried for manslaughter then? You know because some people on slashdot could have a car accident tomorrow and die. Its possible but probably wont happen! ooops I just opened myself to litigation by saying it probably won't happen! Jeez! Get real!
With the recent Google-related lawsuits, I'd say that Italy's legal system needs work. More so that other places, anyway. I'll be sure not to go there if I ever visit Europe.
The summary says that those seven are tried for not predicting the earthquake. THIS IS NOT TRUE.
They are tried because after a lot of small earthquakes some days before the big one, they said: "You are safe, there's no need of an emergency plan, no big earthquake will take place, stay in your houses and STFU"
"There is NO place in Italy without a significant earthquake risk. NONE."
Sardinia is not at risk of earthquakes.
Everyone who has ever claimed to be psychic should thus be sued for not predicting the earthquakes.
Further more they are responsible for Fukushima and even for me missing my bus last thursday.
They should also make it illegal to be wrong.
That will fix all problems, even those relating to politics as then no decisions made in "the publics best interest" will be wrong and life will be perfect.
Really, everything will be peachy! Unless I am wrong ofcource...
Don't try to quell mass panic ("you'll all be fine"), incite it ("You're all gonna die!").
But, but the Sky IS falling.
Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't. Mark Twain.
They are just stupid morons to even entertain the discussion.
We are all in danger all the time from anything. Meteors can take you out, quakes can come, title waves, tornado's etc... Its just the price we pay for living on this big rock.
Old Faithful will blow one day, it's only a matter of time.
"You are in no danger" except you may be hit by a car when crossing the street, or a plane may come down and hit you in the ass.
WTF are people thinking, what would they do instead of live in the place a quake may hit. Lets all move out of Italy, there might be an earth quake this year.
Don't buy land.
And I thought the French were bad, this take the cake.