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Microsoft's 'Cannibalistic Culture'

theodp writes "In the provocatively titled Microsoft's Downfall: Inside the Executive E-mails and Cannibalistic Culture That Felled a Tech Giant, Vanity Fair offers a teaser for a story that will appear in its August issue on Microsoft's Lost Decade, which promises an unprecedented view of life inside Microsoft during the reign of Steve Ballmer. 'Every current and former Microsoft employee I interviewed — every one — cited stack ranking as the most destructive process inside of Microsoft, something that drove out untold numbers of employees,' contributing editor Karl Eichenwald writes. 'If you were on a team of 10 people, you walked in the first day knowing that, no matter how good everyone was, 2 people were going to get a great review, 7 were going to get mediocre reviews, and 1 was going to get a terrible review,' says a former software developer. 'It leads to employees focusing on competing with each other rather than competing with other companies.' Also discussed is the company's loyalty to Windows and Office, which induced a myopia that repeatedly kept Microsoft from jumping on emerging technologies like e-readers and other technology that was effective for consumers. Having seen an advance copy of the full piece, GeekWire offers its take on what it calls an 'epic, accurate and not entirely fair' tale."

407 comments

  1. "Microsoft's Downfall" by DesScorp · · Score: 4, Insightful

    That may be the mother of misleading book titles. Microsoft has lost a step in some areas (as much due to Apple's ascendence as anything MS did wrong), but this sounds like one of those apocalyptic books you see about finance ("The Coming Great Depression" and stuff like that). It's essentially a tabloid headline on a book cover.

    --
    Life is hard, and the world is cruel
    1. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I wouldn't be so sure!

    2. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by thetoadwarrior · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Yeah Microsoft will be like all those big brands like Nokia and Kodak and live on forever.

    3. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Samantha+Wright · · Score: 1

      And Atari! Don't forget Atari!

      --
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    4. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or like IBM...

    5. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by RazorSharp · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Of course. People will always need Office just as they will always need film. Oh, wait. . .

      --
      "From the depths of my skeptical and rationalist soul, I ask the Lord to protect me from California touchie-feeliedom."
    6. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by theRunicBard · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Oh, "Downfall" is more accurate than you think. Microsoft won't last unless it changes significantly. There are several things working against it: Programmers hate Microsoft. Every university, every professor, everyone works on a unix-based system. This leads them to Linux/Unix. Ballmer then slams those and calls them parasistes (look up his views on the GPL). So where do these really talented programmers go? Unless they can't help it, not Microsoft! So now you have unskilled workers. The best go to Google, then facebook, then amazon, then startups, etc, and Microsoft gets whatever is left. Is it any wonder their technology isn't as good as Google's? It's gotten so bad that even their own employees notice. Do you know what a Microsoft employee uses at home? Linux/Mac. Do you know what they use to listen to music? Maybe a Window's Phone but just as likely an iPhone. What do they read their books on? iPads. How do they send their personal emails? Gmail. An employee at Google would take a bullet for the company. An employee at Microsoft is wondering how long until the next iPad comes out. This might not be a completely fair review on my part, but it sums up my views. And the way I see it, a company like this just CAN'T compete with the rest. The only thing they have going for them is that mixture of Steve Ballmer's bottomless money bag and the fact that the average computer user will just use whatever OS comes with their box and that's going to be Windows. But that's not a solid business plan and they need to change.

    7. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by DesScorp · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yeah Microsoft will be like all those big brands like Nokia and Kodak and live on forever.

      Or IBM, remember when they used to be a going concern? Oh wait, they still are. Companies can adapt, and Microsoft is, far and away, the number one provider of operating systems and office software in the word... still. Like I said, they seem to have lost a step, but so what? Ford lost a step with the Edsel. It didn't kill them. Predicting doom for Microsoft at this point is just stupid.

      --
      Life is hard, and the world is cruel
    8. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by cpu6502 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Yeah it would be more accurate to say "Microsoft's Stagnation". They were the #1 desktop/laptop OS in the 90s and still are today. The problem is that they didn't expand beyond that paradigm, and missed the boat on the cellphone and MP3 player OSes (currently dominated by Google and Apple respectively).

      Oh well. BTW Microsoft has never been an innovative company. Never. They won the PC-DOS contract in 1981, overlaid it with Windows GUI 4 years later, and that was about it. It was other companies like Atari, Commodore, and Apple that were doing the innovating..... constantly pressing forward with new ideas like music-quality sound, video-quality graphics, multitasking, mouse-based interfaces, and portable computers. MS just say by and watched.

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    9. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by LordLucless · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You're missing the OP's point. He's not saying Microsoft isn't going to fall, he's saying it hasn't yet and publishing a book entitled "Microsoft's Downfall" is making a prediction that isn't based on any actual fact, but just sounding portentous and drumming up controversy.

      --
      Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't an invisible demon about to eat your face
    10. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Trashcan+Romeo · · Score: 2

      If you factor in profitability, it's cataclysmic.

    11. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      or Apple. Why only naming those in current bad shape?

      And why modding you up?

    12. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Billly+Gates · · Score: 0

      MS hasn't had a downfall?

      Everytime a story about appears on ask slashdot where IE 6 is mentioned, there are million comments from kids under 23 saying how retarded could you be to use a proprietary standard by one company? The response is always, well MS set the standards and it is what everyone else did back then.

      A decade ago MS set the standards on the web, not the W3C. They set the standards for cell phones. They set the standards for office document exchange. They set the standard on what can talk to an email server. They set the standard for PDA's and so on and so on. No one could survive against the all so scary Microsoft.

      Today, W3C sets the standards, Apple, BB, and Google read emails from exchange servers fine, Apple, BB, and Google all make successful phones and smart PDA replacements, win 32 defecto standard is now slowly being replaced by clouds and internet apps that are device and OS independent.

      To say MS is still as strong as ever and not going away is like saying the IBM mainframe is as strong as ever in the 20 years ago which it was and we all know what happened next in that timeframe as PCs became popular and a few apps from mainframes started to get ported over.

      MS is fucked as we frankly do not need them except for Office document exchange. If we can break the Office file format monopoly next, then people like myself wont need Windows and Office anymore and it is game over for MS. They will be done.

      In new markets MS has done terrible and been a loss leader. Has anyone seen a Windows 7 phone yet? I rest my point.

      Balmer is hoping WIndows 8 turns things around but Metro is all W3C ajax mostly that can easily be ported.

    13. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Billly+Gates · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Why is this funny?

      It is exactly what is happening. Once consumers start buying more of these devices than PCs the software will start to be ported over and be gradually as good as the desktop versions. Then corporations will notice and leave ship too next.

      I admit we are far from that at the office but businesses are 6 to 7 years behind consumers. The lockin is gradually going away and even if Windows 8 catches on MS will be screwed because they do not control the w3c standards like they once did and these apps can be ported over to Andriod and IOS fair easily.

    14. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      But 2013 will be the year of the linux desktop, after the downfall of Microsoft!

    15. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by dido · · Score: 5, Interesting

      If you are old enough to remember what Microsoft was like around the late eighties and up until about the early-2000's, you would realize that they are no longer the force to be reckoned with that they were back then. Yes, they are still a very wealthy and profitable company, and will probably remain so for decades more, but they are no longer the force to be reckoned with that they were in the time I speak of. Back in those days Microsoft inspired such fear into the hearts of those in the software industry that before beginning a software venture people would ask: "What would Microsoft do in response to this?" and even the vaguest hint that Microsoft was getting into some field would be sufficient to dissuade the faint of heart from even getting started and risking competing with Microsoft head-on. Those days are long gone, and now the companies that have sort of inherited that mantle are Apple and Google (but it seems that even put together they don't have even half of the kind of terrifying aura Microsoft exuded back in those days). Their loss of this kind of power does not mean that Microsoft will cease being profitable or even that they'll stop growing, far from it. It simply means that they've become irrelevant to the leading edge of the software industry, just another stable, stolid, boring company like IBM or SAP.

      This is what Paul Graham meant when he wrote that Microsoft is Dead.

      --
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    16. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by TENTH+SHOW+JAM · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Who needs office anymore?
      I need to create the odd document which I can do on the wiki we have at work.
      I need to create the odd database report which I do with various database tools and then export them to html.
      I need to send and receive email, again, a web interface seems to do the trick.
      Sometimes I need to present something to a group of people. I use a whiteboard. (I tend to prefer the smart boards)

      The reason people use Office suites these days is more from tradition than need. Microsoft will not die, but they will recede. Metro will probably speed up the process.

      --
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      To display how futile
      English Haiku is
    17. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I work there, and I can tell you don't have a clue. The biggest problem MS has with hiring is competing for those few people that learned to program in C/C++ instead of Java, or some other interpreted language. We get summer interns that are good all the time, some get offers and work out well, other wash out in less than 4 years. Its not because of stack ranking though, its because of lack of desire or capabilities, Those that perform their job well and consistently get promoted quickly. Some long term employees get to a certain level and then stagnate, and when they're shown the door they blame the stack ranking process because their peers passed them by.

      Also note the higher in level you are the broader the ranking becomes. Many of the people in the Vanity Fair article were stack ranked division or corporate wide, not within their own team. Then were let go as part of the dead wood trimming during the layoffs when the economy went south.

    18. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Belial6 · · Score: 1

      No, they are not. They are the number one provider of DESKTOP OSes. In total OS shipments, they are not even close anymore. Office software, I will give you.

    19. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Back in their glory days, Microsoft was a very "Fast Follower", so while they were rarely the first with a piece of tech, they were very often right behind. They were very agressive at ensuring no market segment escape them, often using old IBM "vaporware" tactics to chill interest in the competition, as well as underpricing them. They were absolutely paranoid that someone was going to do to them what they did to IBM.

      Compare this to modern Microsoft where Ballmer completely dismissed the iPhone and their mobile division sat on their thumbs for two long years.

    20. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Belial6 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      That joke keeps getting told, and it has been a fair jab so far. It also is not entirely impossible. 2013? Probably not. 2014? Maybe. Android is advancing fast. On average Google is releasing 2 versions of Android per year. Tablets are already powerful enough to run 90% of the software that 90% of the users need. When Google decides to release a version of Android that works as a desktop, Linux will be showing up on a lot of desktops.

      If you will accept the dropping of the word "desktop", we are already way past the 'Year of Linux'. Most people have more Linux devices in their homes than Windows devices.

    21. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      That's exactly the point. Android is advancing fast, while the whole taillight-chasing Linux "desktop" ecosystem (X11, KDE, Gnome, LibreOffice, etc) is becoming just as much of a legacy prospect as Microsoft, except without the installed base to ensure continuing support.

      RIP Linux Desktop, hardly anyone will miss ya.

    22. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Gorobei · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Nice charts, and on the money.

      Microsoft, like RIM, is basically doing unloved corporate infrastructure at this point. They are seriously 3 iPhone apps away from becoming a non-entity:

      Mail: I get 1000+ messages a day. I ignore and/or delete.
      Calendar: Still useful, but not as a real calendar, I have triple booked time slots.
      Powerpoint: Mostly just a tool to get the pacing of a talk right.
      Excel: When's the last time you saw a what-if scenario in excel? This is now just a data presentation tool.

      There are N startup ideas that can grab $1B from microsoft in a few years. When the young crowd are ignoring them, and us old-timers have our PAs deal with the tools, you gotta figure they are hurting.

      Seriously, the last hot person I saw using a Microsoft OS had taped "INTP" over the logo on their laptop. Microsoft == ConEd.

    23. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Was the Mouse introduced with Microsoft Word?

    24. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by catmistake · · Score: 1

      Or like IBM...

      huh? What about IBM?

    25. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Tough+Love · · Score: 1

      Or IBM, remember when they used to be a going concern? Oh wait, they still are. Companies can adapt...

      Microsoft can't because it is the vanity plaything of Gates and Ballmer. And yes, I believe Gates still calls the shots. Usually wildly wrong.

      --
      When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
    26. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Sir_Sri · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Right, but not even 20 years ago they were a bit player in the office products business, and not a player at all in the game console business.

      Times change, companies evolve. Microsoft has the cash to turn itself into a car company if it wants to (I'm not sure why it would want to, but it can do pretty much whatever it wants). Whether or not they will latch on to a successful strategy in the future remains to be seen. Right now they're riding their giant piles of free money from Windows and Office to experiment with other areas (gaming, mobiles, various corporate computing tools etc.), if one of those strategies pans out they may jump headlong into that rather than PC's.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems gives a good breakdown. (note that the chart there samples from different places at different points so it can't be used as a value over time measure, but Windows is still somewhere in the 70-85% use range as of april/may of this year). Which is not far off from where it was for the last 10 years with Mac and linux picking up ~10% of the market.

      I know it's hard to fathom, but windows is HUGE. The iphone sold about 35 million units each quarter this year. Microsoft moves 35 million units of windows on new PC's in a month. And most of those iphone users have windows.

      The other question is whether or not microsoft ever really needs to abandon the PC market. It probably does, but that's not universally true. GM has been making cars for 100 years, and even though there are other car makers and so on they've never really needed to branch out into unrelated businesses, probably they could have had some presence in the aircraft business if they were so inclined (the way GE and rolls royce and SAAB etc. did). It's possible, however unlikey, that the world will keep selling 450 or so million computers a year, and MS will own most of that market indefinitely and everything else will orbit around windows rather than ever meaningfully compete to replace it.

      MS came very late to the game to game consoles, and it took them a while to find their footing, but they've managed to move a lot of 360's and make a lot of money. I wouldn't be surprised if they manage something similar with mobile and tablets. Windows 8 might bomb due to the amount of change. But windows 9... that I wouldn't bet against yet.

      Granted Ballmer could go crazy, fling a chair at someone important, land himself in jail and then the place suffers a massive leadership crisis and goes out of business. Stranger things have happened.

    27. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Tough+Love · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Linux was slowed down in the desktop space mainly because of Microsoft's illegal monopoly control of OEM preinstalls. However notice that a number of the players that Microsoft was able to cow into dropping their advertised preinstalls are once against shipping with Linux preinstalled. When Microsoft's grip loosens just a little more the numbers will go exponential. Because there's no Microsoft tax, lowering the price of a typical desktop by 10%. Meanwhile, Microsoft never had a ghost of a chance to block Linux on phones and tablets once Google weighed in. Which helps a lot with Linux pentration on desktops: 1) customers get used to alternate interfaces 2) it's Linux 3) it weakens Microsoft 4) it's Linux. Next baby step is Android on desktops, after that most probably QT based gui on Android on desktops.

      --
      When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
    28. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Tough+Love · · Score: 1

      they are still a very wealthy and profitable company, and will probably remain so for decades more

      I believe Microsoft is perfectly capable of collapsing as fast as Nokia did, as do a lot of investors judging from Microsoft's moribund P/E.

      --
      When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
    29. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Grishnakh · · Score: 3, Insightful

      IBM's doing pretty good these days, but back in the 90s their future looked very uncertain. They were very strong in the 60s, 70s, and into the 80s, but they made some really bad decisions, and ended up downsizing the company greatly. They managed to avoid collapse, and have built themselves up a lot in the last decade. But they easily could have failed, ending up like Kodak instead.

    30. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by GaratNW · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Excellent point, but the headline is not entirely inaccurate. As someone who worked there from 1998 through to 2004, and with a large number of friends still there, the company has gotten really bad. It has a shadow of the potential that it used to. Not because there aren't amazing elements in some of their products (Metro, love or hate, is a pretty remarkable UI evolution - Please, no posting to that retarded AOL image or whatever it is; plenty of other examples of good ideas surrounded by bad; Forcing metro by default in the desktop, for instance), but the company is its own worst enemy. VPs fighting VPs, a culture that started as productively competitive that has turned into destructively competitive - I'm not talking about the market, I'm talking about internal competition and non-stop backstabbing and product infighting.

      To paraphrase the Joker, "This company needs an enema.". And the first step is flushing Ballmer. People often underestimate how much of the culture stems from the top down, even at a 70,000 person comapny, but Ballmer, despite being a brilliant business man, is a horrifically bad visionary and leader.

    31. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by a_n_d_e_r_s · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Actually for every 2 new windows 7 machines there is 3 new machines running Linux. Or about 600 thousand windows and 900 thousand Linux (a large part of that is android) every day.

      So by beginning of 2014 there will have been more android sold then windows 7. Given that this continues in the long run it means that the domination of Microsoft in the home computer business is over. They will continue to be a big player but they will not be nearly as dominant as today

      Of course Microsoft sees this and wants in on the smartphone market. They want to stop the trend. But I doubt they will succeed to squash the upstart this time like they done many times before. This will mean we will get real competion on the IT market and the consumers will be the big winners.

      --
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    32. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Beryllium+Sphere(tm) · · Score: 2

      An anecdotal data point backing this up is that one of my business contacts goes to meetings at Microsoft and when the MS people pull out their cell phones, 6 of 7 are iPhones.

    33. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by symbolset · · Score: 1

      People are already buying more smartphones than PCs. Tablets should get there in 2013.

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    34. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The parallel is actually pretty apt: Kodak had a fuckload of R&D, and patents, in digital imaging and the managed to throw more or less all of it away through a myopic focus on their legacy business.

      Similarly, this story isn't about how Microsoft has nothing but morons(they don't); but how they managed to take the good ideas generated by a decade plus of having all the smart people that gigantic bucketloads of money can buy, and suffocate them because they didn't look sufficiently like Windows, or interoperate in an obvious way with Office.

      That's the real trick. Any moron can become irrelevant because their core product comes under some sort of unstoppable structural pressure. It takes talent to ensure that you squander your good ideas(and, in some cases, years-long leads on the competition) on the altar of your core product, and then become irrelevant because your core product suffers structural pressures...

    35. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by the_B0fh · · Score: 1

      On the 360s, s/make a lot of money/finally made a profit, but still a net negative overall/

    36. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by west · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Most companies would beg to have 1/100th of Microsoft's revenue stream, and that revenue stream isn't going anywhere fast. If MS fails absolutely everything, it will still be 20 years before it's actually losing money.

      There is no other tech company even a quarter as secure as MS. Apple is exciting, but it's a consumer electronics company now, and their longevity is.... questionable. Apple's been able to throw many cards in the air and have them all turn into aces, and I am in awe of them, but a few big missteps and Apple's 1/10th its current size.

      Windows and Office, on the other hand, are a license to print a steady stream of money. Not stock-market exciting because revenues aren't doubling every year, but rock steady.

      I'd buy MS an income trust, no problem. It just needs to realize it's Exxon, not Apple.

    37. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by west · · Score: 1

      I think a better analogy is Exxon. It's sits right in the middle, collecting money.

      And yes, any day, all those green technologies are going to bankrupt Exxon :-).

    38. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by lilfields · · Score: 1, Interesting

      But...most people hate their Android devices, for instance their tablets are absolutely awful. Maybe Nexus will change the tide, but Google really has tons of holes in their strategy. They have royally screwed their phone market by having a skiddish ecosystem of phones that don't get updates, etc. People hate that. Talk to almost anyone who isn't just a Google fan and they will tell you that they'd rather have an iPhone. I remember when Apple was failing, but literally on the brink of bankruptcy (unlike Microsoft who has near all time high profits than at any point in its history, [especially if you exclude their entertainment division]) and now its market cap shadows over Microsoft. Microsoft is far from dead, I do think they have a shaky future ahead, but I laugh at the prospect of saying Android will be the thorn that destroys Microsoft. You can't really compared Microsoft to Kodak, that's just silly; Microsoft is potentially IBM though. They do make some good software, admit it or not, Microsoft has stuff to offer and a pretty diverse portfolio. Kodak had...film? Jumped into printers just a few years ago? No diversification at all. I want Balmer gone, I want Windows 8 to succeed, but I have my fears that it won't...and if it does fail I hope it's enough to take Balmer out. Just simple restructuring of Microsoft could put the company back on top. Their work with Metro is highly interesting, but there are some elements that are weak about it...and I think some of that is there to keep old management happy.

    39. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by catmistake · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The parallel is actually pretty apt: Kodak had a fuckload of R&D, and patents, in digital imaging and the managed to throw more or less all of it away through a myopic focus on their legacy business.

      Completely false. Kodak did nearly the exact opposite of what you're claiming. What killed Kodak wasn't "myopic focus on their legacy business," as they developed a decent plan with foresight for a shift to digital (Kodak's first digital camera was 1975). What killed them was low margins in the commodity market of digital photography. Had they recognized the wave of competition in digital and the commodization of digital cameras, and instead of shifting to low end competitions with manufacturers of cheap equipment and focused on the higher-end large margins in the commercial market (as IBM did with computers), they might have survived. Kodak is a casualty of the speed of technological innovation in a low end market, unlike Microsoft in every way, which is an arrogant behemoth in comparison. Unlike Kodak, Microsoft never innovated anything ever... their modus operandi is to purchase or copy innovation, and force their smaller competition out of business by flooding markets with inferior product.

    40. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by lilfields · · Score: 2

      Don't worry, if actual Microsoft employees dismiss this story, they will be dismissed by Slashdot. All hail Linux! You see Slashdot has this post ranking system where they...ah shit.

    41. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by fullback · · Score: 3, Funny

      Microsoft is the McDonald's of the desktop. They'll both be around a long time, serving up crap.

    42. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by west · · Score: 1

      If they do, corporate America is dead. MS is baked into its IT DNA. Competitors might score brand new technologies, but consumer tech is not going to replace the base IT infrastructure that supports 99.9% of all businesses. If MS mysteriously died, most IT divisions would collapse shortly thereafter.

      And as for MS's profitability:

      2011 $23.15B
      2010 $18.76B
      2009 $14.57B
      2008 $17.68B
      2007 $14.07B
      2006 $12.60B
      2005 $12.25B
      2004 $8.17B
      2003 $7.53B
      2002 $5.35B

      Yeah, right on the edge of frigging bankruptcy. At this rate, within 5 years they'll be losing... well, almost losing... okay, making money, well, if you want to get technical, making oodles of money hand over fist (just not as much as Apple.)

      The stock market doesn't like any stock that doesn't look like it will account for 3/4 of the world output in 5 years. It's like a casino - who wants to play a game where your payout is between 0.9 and 1.2 of what you put in?

    43. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by catmistake · · Score: 0

      Or IBM, remember when they used to be a going concern? Oh wait, they still are.

      Yes... I remember 1992, when Microsoft nearly killed IBM. So IBM had a few bad years... like... about 3 of them. So they moved away from the consumer market and have been doing well for the last 20 years. IBM's five year low is twice that of Microsoft's five year high. They closed at almost $200 yesterday. Exactly what are you babbling about?

    44. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Sir_Sri · · Score: 4, Informative

      Right, but a lot of that android market is competing in a low value market that they don't care about. Microsoft was never bothered by sybian selling 10's of millions of phones even though it could do various office and web browsing task.

      The chart I linked is illustrative. Just because people have android phones doesn't mean that's translating into usage share. If people who have linux phones still do 80% of their computing on Windows it's not really going to hurt microsoft any, in the same way that microsoft doesn't care what brand of refrigerator you own, virtually everyone with a computer also has a refrigerator, but they are not overlapping markets. Now, I grant you, I would have expected mobiles to be a much more overlapping market with PC's, but thus far that doesn't seem to be the case.

      Also, your opening line

      Actually for every 2 new windows 7 machines there is 3 new machines running Linux. Or about 600 thousand windows and 900 thousand Linux (a large part of that is android) every day.

      Fails basic maths. There are 900k android activations a day, which is just under 30 million a month. So about the same as windows. Who are up in the 30-35 million a month range. So it's closer to 1:1. But a lot of those droid devices are cheap phones with a browser (not that there's anything wrong with that particularly, but there's nothing there really competing with windows market share).

    45. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Old97 · · Score: 2

      RIM's revenues and market share peaked in 2008, a year after the iPhone was announced. No problems at RIM. Just keep on a truckin'. Today's profits and profit margins are not the best indicator of future performance. The fact is that Microsoft has been floundering for over a decade. They've not repeated their Windows success. Office rode on Windows. What is next? Their enterprise business is doing well, but software wise they are competing with the most inept companies on the planet - IBM, SAP and Oracle - so that's not a measure of excellence. They've got time to turn it around, but it's growing short.

      --
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    46. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Sir_Sri · · Score: 1

      Not as far as I know. I believe they're net positive by over a billion dollars now. Which is, on the microsoft scale of things virtually nothing.

      You also have to figure the size of the ecosystem you create. If you lose a billion dollars this year on 10 billion in revenue. And next year lose another billion on 100 billion in revenue your company is worth a crap load more. (Illustrative example not actual numbers). Microsoft is for whatever reason pouring money into their home entertainment products, probably thinking that they will own the living room, but who knows. Again, not sure that's a winner for them, but if it turns out to be a winner they're well positioned to capitalize on it.

    47. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Old97 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I think that it is YOU who doesn't know what they are talking about. IBM's internal politics started killing them in the 1980's. Their System 3x versus PC versus 43xx versus 39x versus 9xxx versus their office division (e.g. Displaywrite). I had IBM sales guys in my office trashing other IBM divisions for God's sake. They were a mess. Internal competition denied them the synergies they could have gotten if they would have worked together. Finally they brought in an outsider (Gerstner) who cut through a lot of that and saved their company. Their middleware still sucks and they ruin every product/company they buy, but they now market to the clueless suits as one company and do quite well financially.

      --
      Very often, people confuse simple with simplistic. The nuance is lost on most. - Clement Mok
    48. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by theArtificial · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Microsoft has never been an innovative company. Never.

      They came up with AJAX and prior to that Iframes, maybe you've heard of those?
      Microsoft had the first console to feature an internal HD eliminating the need for memory cards for save games among other things.
      Intellisense is amazing (it's an example of auto completion done well).
      The scroll wheel on a mouse. The first optical mouse.
      The first mouse featuring backwards and forwards buttons.
      First mainstream ergonomic mouse.
      While not the first, they're responsible for ergonomic keyboards (due making them affordable, just like PCs)
      Teraserver (1998 a precursor to Google Earth)
      Involved in the creation of the browser useragent
      Video codec innovations which led to VC-1 being the premier codec for HD-DVD and BR discs.
      Helped establish TrueType
      ClearType
      The Taskbar
      Ability to alter compiled code while debugging it
      Dynamic HTML desktops
      Lots of small innovations in .NET that when combined equal large cumulative innovation.
      XNA
      Alt tab to switch between applications
      Photosynth
      Microsoft OneNote
      First OS to have a 3D Sound api for games
      Shadow Copy
      Certainly that should qualify as an innovation.

      They won the PC-DOS contract in 1981, overlaid it with Windows GUI 4 years later...Apple that were doing the innovating.....

      By giving Xerox a bunch of stock in their company for access to their GUI technology, essentially buying technology just like Microsoft?

      --
      Man blir trött av att gå och göra ingenting.
    49. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In the end, one of the main reasons they were so successful was that they had a monopoly. They were called out on that. Being pegged as a monopolist was a big part of their downfall. The other part, IMHO, computing revolves around the net. The net was built on Unix. It's / instead of \. Throw in Steve Balmer at the helm and you have a downward spiral that you would have to be blind to not see coming. I don't think they will ever recover.

    50. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Tough+Love · · Score: 2

      Do you sometimes wish that you actually understood what P/E means?

      --
      When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
    51. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by catmistake · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Programmers hate Microsoft.

      The popularity and ubiquity of DoT Net, until very very recently, seems to disagree with that... for a while there I thought it was going to overtake everything. The google says ".NET Framework" still pulls 41M results, Xcode results are 28M, and "C++" (which, as I understand it, is also hated by most who use it... but IANAP) rules at 231M results. Java API pulls 300M+ results until you use quotes... then it's only about 4M. I have no idea if google results mean anything, btw... but the feeling I personally got from .NETters is that they liked it and despised everything else.

    52. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by jo42 · · Score: 1

      They are the number one provider of DESKTOP OSes.

      That's because there is no other viable choice of desktop OS that you can get with a newly bought machine from anyone other than Apple.

    53. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Have you seen this?
      http://www.ubuntu.com/devices/android
      Only for new expensive phones, but if it does take off then cheaper phones will pick it up after a year or so just to keep up, at that point a TV + the dock that came with the phone and £10 of peripherals relapses a septate purchase of a several hundreds of pounds (or dollars if you prefer). it will also push PC functionality into homes that have never had the put down cash level to buy a machine.... It is not like it has to be Ubuntu that tries this trick first either, if they fail someone will do it, a different Linux distro alongside android is an obvious way to add value to your high end hardware

      IF they can get the edge in then Microsoft is going to have to have a strategy to beat this and I do not think they can in the long run without taking the phone market form android.

    54. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Billly+Gates · · Score: 0

      Let me know when you lose that job because the employers that Taleo system requires word docs and the ones that look great in OpenOffice look funny on HRs computer with word?

      Wow, I guess Tenth Show Jam can't even use margins in Word??! Who does this guy think he is?

      Give me a break! Until the file format in office is not locked into the MS ecosystem corporations and myself will continue to use Windows/Office for this reason and it is really the only reason besides some old corporatware crap.

      I do not know who moderated you, but in the business world saying you do not use Office shows you are incompetent like gloating you do not have an email address or a fax machine before then. Must be college students with no real world experience? Vendors, customers, workers, all use Office and email these documents to each other. Not "Here are the instructions on using Whiteboard ..".

      Until that changes Windows is going to stay. At least in the corporate world.

    55. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Billly+Gates · · Score: 1

      Usually VPs fighting each other is a result of a lack of vision and leadership. No one is calling the shots and unifying the company. I agree that Balmer has to go and Gates would be better able to put in a vision so VPs could work in their areas rather than trying to piss in each others departments for control.

      The question is after that kind of environment can different departments like the Office and Windows departments trust each other?

    56. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by mabhatter654 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      but the flip side is that all Windows and Office have done was allow them to piss away VAST quantities of cash not getting anywhere. Sure, it's nice to be able to LOCK business purchases into a guaranteed 15-20% purchase increase (to maintain licensing discounts) but what has Microsoft DONE with that money? Those divisions are 85 cents on the dollar PROFIT. Sure companies would kill for that kind of cash... they would also FIRE managers that only managed to eek out measly 20% or so they actually post each year.

      Microsoft has VAST amounts of WASTE internally. They aren't growing their stock in the last 10 years. They could easily be posting several dollars a share every quarter dividend and be a value stock that puts that money into stockholder's pockets. Compare them to Apple sure, but Apple's headcount isn't spiraled out of control like Microsoft's. Apple has grown sales and profits but kept their headcount down (outside opening more retail shops) by ruthlessly nixing products that don't make the cut.

      Microsoft philosophically CANNOT do that. They don't have expertise to separate the winners from the fluff like Jobs did. Microsoft operates more like a VC fund... throw money at a lot of things, try to have fingers in everything, and see what sticks. It's an OK model, but the customer end is tired of it. This is where if the court HAD broken them up, there would be one or two really strong companies from the "monopoly" and the others would have died and the tech staff would rebuild something new... without having to compete with Bill and Steve and the piles of money. The joke is that they have spent 10 years focused on dodging regulators rather than releasing new stuff (outside Xbox). Apple and Google cleverly "moved the cheese" and spent the last 5 years being laughed at... now the giant is going over the edge on it's own and it can't change course. It's own bags of money keep it from moving.

      of course Microsoft isn't GOING anywhere. They need a serious overhaul. They would have had it if they were broke up, now they have to essentially do the same thing 10 years later and it won't be pretty. Somebody has to man up and break out the AXE. The problem is that the HEAD needs chopped off, so the baby chicks can do their own thing. Microsoft has soaked up 20 years of talent and done NOTHING with it.

      The WORST part of all, when they start firing, they will create the biggest competitor know to the tech industry. If they slashed 20% those employees would be joined by a good share of Apple and Google workers that are also ready to do something GREAT again. The bloodbath of cash involved would ramp up some serious VC funding too.

    57. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >When Microsoft's grip loosens just a little more the numbers will go exponential

      It's hilarious that there are still people who actually believe this. When you're giving away your OS on the desktop for nothing and still can't get ordinary non-techies to adopt it, it's not the competition that's holding you back. Linux's worst enemy is itself, for reasons already well enumerated on /. in the past.

      (And please don't bleat to me about Android. Users don't even know that it's Linux and wouldn't give a rat's ass if it were switched to some other OS underneath as long as their apps still worked.)

    58. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by marcosdumay · · Score: 1

      Microsoft has the cash to turn itself into a car company if it wants to

      If that tought didn't make your spine cold for a few moments, you are either naive or brave. And it is not just the oppinion of some /. reader, there's even is an old joke about Microsoft's car, go google it. That joke was made by a normal person, not a computer geek. It spreaded worldwide, in a few weeks, and was repeated for several years.

      Luckly, Microsoft can't just do anything they want. They have a brand to care about.

    59. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by mabhatter654 · · Score: 2

      IBM aggressively restructures itself every few years. They are constantly cutting, snipping, buying and selling whole divisions that are only in the trade presses. In the new IBM, at any given time about 10% of the employees are "on the chopping block" and have to interview to switch to other projects inside the company. Of course they are rapidly losing their "legacy" of "slow and steady" advances when they kept labs around doing research at the "20 year" time frame. The IBM where product line executives worked their way up in a division from wielding soldering irons is just about over as those old timers are pushed out of the company.

      I work with the Midrange lines a lot and there have always been lots of people that wrote microcode in the System 36 days, still managing the next release of the OS for POWER8 hardware. Those are going away rapidly in the new IBM.

    60. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Fjandr · · Score: 1

      While I agree the math fails as being insructive because of the nature of the market segments being discussed, one thing MS may eventually have to be worried about is Android being back-ported to larger machines. If Android reaches a large enough market penetration that people are almost universally comfortable with Android devices, such a move could have enormous implications for MS dominance in the consumer space.

      That's likely years down the line though, so I'm not going to call it a prediction, just a possibility.

    61. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Fjandr · · Score: 2

      Windows: Enjoy doing whatever you want on an essentially stable botnet.

      They've all got problems. That's Windows' particular weak spot.

    62. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by catmistake · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Who needs office anymore?

      ...The reason people use Office suites these days is more from tradition than need.

      Long time Microsoft enemy here, and I have to strongly disagree. There are few packages that do what Exchange does... which boils down to, apparently, integrating calendar and mail. You're thinking too individually... an individual can find software that they like better that works better than Office, but when you add 2K - 10K collaborating users to the mix, there's nothing competing with it (there are a few alternatives, Zimbra is one ... but Exchange doesn't seem to be going anywhere even with the few actually free alternatives, and the alleged popularity of outsourcing to Google apps). Exchange admins can fuck off all they want and never worry about losing their job, and if they do, never worry about finding work... there's always an Exchange server somewhere in crisis.

      The reason people use Office is because that's what their company uses because there are few alternatives, and it came with their home computer. I have to give credit where credit is due... Exchange works pretty well, even with its lockout pitfalls and instability after not having any maintenance for a few months while corporate tries to find the rare individual that is competent at administrating the thing and isn't a complete jerk.

      Windows might be the worst thing to come out of Microsoft, and Office is probably right there with it if you aren't collaborating (except, I think, for Excel 2003... Word and PowerPoint are crap, but I've never seen a spreadsheet application as nice as Excel, before all the new needless bells and whistles they added in 2009/11... so I don't think 2003 Excel is bad software at all), but Exchange sits up with the best of Microsoft's products, along with Active Directory and XBox (and someone told me they made a good mouse).

      Whenever anyone asks me for something in a .doc format, I always ask if .txt or .pdf will do, because, I tell them, .doc is not a standard but a proprietary format, and I neither own nor use Microsoft products (unless someone is paying me to).

    63. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by mabhatter654 · · Score: 2

      it's about "eyeball time" kids. Outside work, I spend nearly Zero time on a Windows computer. I have two Macbooks and spend only about 10% of my time there. It's all iPhone/iPad for browsing and light media, and Apple TV/Roku for online videos. For kids now, their Android phone has replaced competing with time on Dad's shared computer. When the 7" android tablets really hit their stride the average person won't hardly TOUCH a PC (or Mac) except for work and school purposes and maybe to manage their home network or someplace to hold a big fat hard drive for their stuff (because nobody has done a good job of a dumb "storage tank" for your home network yet).

      So yes, everyone will still buy a Windows PC (because it's the only thing stores sell) but everybody buys Microwave Ovens and TVs too... there's no MONEY in those items anymore though.

    64. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      IBM had been myopic too. They employed too many sales guys and they had more ego than any one. They killed the company. I had witnessed their antivirus software, text-to-speech sw, etc., were over priced and finally had to sell to some other companies. They always had short sighted views. They could have found some entrepreneurs to take their products and mass market them. The best R&D, but worst distribution and too much greed and the notion" IBM name tag will sell anything". They had started an innovative scheme "Best Team" but did not have patience as small business penetration takes longer time, but they missed a wonderful opportunity to make it successful. Microsoft is also moving in the same direction without learning that too much greed to control US business and consumers is not good. Steve Balmer with his ego and moronic attitude will be the final nail in the MS coffin .

    65. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not sure, but that's a great example. Microsoft had GUI programs on the market long before their larger competitors such as Lotus. They even gave you a "free" mouse to encourage people to use them.

    66. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by mabhatter654 · · Score: 2

      it wouldn't matter because MS Word was originally written for the original Mac... then ported over to PC.

    67. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by oiron · · Score: 1

      Number of google hits is hardly a measure of popularity.

      First, Windows is still dominant on the desktop, and anyone who wants to be treated as a first-class citizen there is mostly going to use .Net. More to the point, all the big corporate IT shops have taken to it.

      Second, it's one of those things that's completely polarizing. I, for example, cordially loathe the framework (though C# is ok), and love my C++. But then, the kind of programming I like to do is not really what it's built for. But I use it, because I have to (constraints like interoperating with the guy who wrote a DB backend in .Net, etc). Just because I use it doesn't mean I like it.

      Third, you can like .Net, but dislike MS's tactics with it. For example, take Silverlight - touted as the Next Big Thing! Everyone simply had to learn it! But when Win8 came around, it was dropped in favour of HTML5. Lots of people were miffed, and several apps were EOL'd because of that. The cost of redevelopment is insanely high!

      Similarly, C++/CLI: It used to be sold as a first-class .Net language. Then, when VS2010 came about, Intellisense (auto-completion, type hints and the like in the IDE) didn't work anymore. When they were asked, the VS team's response was something like "We don't think you C++/CLI programmers matter anymore". Again, lots of angry programmers...

      Management loves MS. Programmers are usually either ambivalent, or dislike them...

    68. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by davester666 · · Score: 1

      He's why the Surface comes with a stylus.

      --
      Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
    69. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by hairyfeet · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The problem MSFT has is it can't simply kill support to older titles and they have to give the OEMs and customers what they want NOT what MSFT wants to sell. Cases in point, Vista and most likely win 8, not to mention their recent failures to gain any share in mobile with Zune, Kin, and WinPhone 7.

      Somebody at MSFT simply needs to accept that things will NEVER be as they were during the heady days of the MHz wars, where one had to toss a PC every 2 years because it would struggle to run the latest software. hell thanks to the consoles even games don't really stress the monsters we have now, my ancient HD4850 still gives me over 30FPS on modern games with plenty of bling so the drive to constantly replace just isn't there.

      While they can coast for awhile what they can NOT do is piss off their partners like the AAA game houses and the OEMs because frankly without them most would be happy to stick with what they have. We may just get to see how far MSFT can push it with Win 8 but I have a feeling they are gonna get a wake up call and find out they simply can no longer lead and expect people to blindly follow. You'd have thought they'd have gotten that with Vista but I guess not.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    70. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      Inferior product? Careful.. your bias is showing. What about Windows? Office? Xbox? Visual Studio? C#?

    71. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by jedwidz · · Score: 1

      Microsoft has always been a pure software play in the desktop space, whereas the innovations in the 80's and 90's were mostly about hardware.

      They made application software and dev tools for other platforms too, which at the time were innovative enough.

      Lest we forget AmigaBasic, which did a lot to make the Amiga an attractive platform early on. It was slow and unstable for sure, but it did a good job of exposing the multimedia capabilities of the platform.

    72. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by oiron · · Score: 2, Interesting

      MS skunkworks is truly amazing! Surface (both the original table and the new tablet), Photosynth,... Some of that stuff is revolutionary!

      But they seem to have this problem of bringing things to market. I don't know if you remember the number of features announced and then cancelled for Vista; WinFS, for example...

      I think this article shows us why - the individual divisions are very innovative. But they compete with each other, distracting them from actually doing anything in the market.

      Perfect example of why companies shouldn't be allowed to grow into obesity! It's interesting to note that breaking up MS would probably have been a good thing for the market.

    73. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by mabhatter654 · · Score: 2

      but it's all from "forced" service contracts where they make OEMS and companies buy "15% more" every year or the price per unit skyrockets. At one point the OS/Office division was 80% profit! So while the numbers keep going up, how much is that as percentage of the overall pie?

      More importantly, how many "dead horses" are they beating just so "somebody else" can't have them? XBox was a calculated choice to break into a new market that was a duopoly at the time. Losing THAT much money what what it took to hold ground against Sony and Nintendo. But outside that, almost everything they do is reactionary and they are just throwing money on the board to "block moves" rather than to play their own moves. Out of the whole Windows 8 movement on Phones, tablets, and PCs, nothing is pushing me to buy anything. There's not even anything officially FOR SALE YET!

      Microsoft is still resting on the days when a new OS was released and OEMs drummed up the sales for it. Granted, they can bully OEMs in to buying millions of units up front to have those big release day numbers for the press... that then take MONTHS to sell through. That's not going to fly this time and everybody knows it. Microsoft's hardball tactics with OEMs are already under fire... if this round doesn't cash out for OEMs, then OEMs are going under, they're all broke... and Microsoft will get the blame for sinking them. In reality, the public opinion about the Win8 stuff is going to be more demanding than the business end of it.

      Microsoft need one of Steve Jobs famous "One more thing.. " speeches that have the unwritten "go forth and buy today" at the end. The public hasn't had one yet.

      Blood is in the water. Everybody knows Microsoft can bleed now... the Win8 release will find out just how much blood is in the water and how many baby sharks want to try for a bite.

    74. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by hairyfeet · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I think there is an even better comparison...AOL. For awhile AOL practically ruled the consumer Internet market but even when they got products like WinAmp that were insanely popular they smothered them to death because EVERYTHING had to tie into "the service" and it got to the point everyone working there either quit or just quit giving a fuck.And just like MSFT AOL found themselves in charge of a market that simply stop growing and although it won't just die as dialup did it'll never be as big as mobile is ever again.

      You look at everything MSFT is doing right now and its the same thing, they just keep trying to tie everything into Windows and Office even if it doesn't make any sense. i mean including Office on WinARM when they haven't even included AD or GPO support? Its a fricking consumer OS, it makes no damned sense! But some PHB said it HAS to tie in, hence Office.

      Sadly looking back I'd have to say the best damned thing that could have happened to MSFT would have been if the courts would have split them up, because with so many groups fighting among themselves and so many things being pushed to tie into the two sacred cows of MS Windows and Office they really are backed into a corner there. If mobile would have been split off from Windows maybe they wouldn't have given us a decade of teeny tiny start buttons on WinCE devices, nor would we be seeing Ballmer taking a crap on the desktop just so he can try to gain a couple of shares in the smartphone arena.

      Anyway you look at it while MSFT has a steady revenue with their sacred cows there is just no growth there and with the corporate culture its looking more and more doubtful they will be able to branch out.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    75. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is true. I can't remember the last time I actually created a Word document. Everything is e-mail or web these days, and the legacy need to keep reading MS Word documents goes away if no one ever sends you a Word document and you never create one. The accountants, however, cling grimly to Excel. That may save Microsoft's bacon, they should be sponsoring whatever the hell accountants like to do, big time.

    76. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by aristotle-dude · · Score: 2

      Involved in the creation of the browser useragent

      That was entirely self-serving. They wanted a mechanism to allow webpages to target IE specifically rather than the standard HTML features.

      Video codec innovations which led to VC-1 being the premier codec for HD-DVD and BR discs.

      Early codecs were based on Quicktime code stolen by a sub-contractor from Apple. VC-1 is inferior to H.264, HD-DVD lost the format war and many BR discs with the best video quality use H.264.

      Helped establish TrueType

      Did you even read the page you linked to? I quote: "TrueType is an outline font standard originally developed by Apple Computer in the late 1980s as a competitor to Adobe's Type 1 fonts used in PostScript."

      ClearType

      They were copying ATSUI.

      The Taskbar

      A copy of the NEXT dock and other systems.

      Ability to alter compiled code while debugging it

      NEXT had that in the 90's with the predecessor to X-Code and Objective-C.

      Lots of small innovations in .NET that when combined equal large cumulative innovation.

      The .NET framework borrowed ideas from Cocoa and Java.

      XNA

      Most high profile games that are multi-platform use C/C++ code rather than XNA.

      Shadow Copy

      A backup on the same hard drive? That is not a backup. It is idiotic.

      Certainly that should qualify as an innovation.

      Nope.

      --
      Jesus was a compassionate social conservative who called individuals to sin no more.
    77. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by aristotle-dude · · Score: 3, Informative

      If they do, corporate America is dead. MS is baked into its IT DNA. Competitors might score brand new technologies, but consumer tech is not going to replace the base IT infrastructure that supports 99.9% of all businesses. If MS mysteriously died, most IT divisions would collapse shortly thereafter.

      I don't think you actually have worked in a large fortune 500 company. They use windows desktops but many have a lot of infrastructure running on various flavours of commercial UNIX and Oracle databases.

      I work for a fortune 500 company.

      --
      Jesus was a compassionate social conservative who called individuals to sin no more.
    78. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by hairyfeet · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Actually the chart is telling, but not in the way you think. Look at the peak, between 2004 and 2006, what happened then? The end of the MHz war because of the thermal barrier and the rise of the multicore, that's what.

      I know plenty of folks and even plenty of businesses on first gen Phenom Is and Core duos, are they poor? Nope there is just nothing they do that stresses those chips which are now over 5 years old. look at that chart again and see how quickly it was climbing when AMD and Intel were topping each other in speed with every release, then look at how much faster it drops around 2007 when multicores became cheap for the masses.

      In the end the reason why those numbers simply aren't keeping up with Apple is there is no reason to replace PCs anymore whereas Apple is going through their OWN MHz race in the mobile sector. Also thanks to the switchover to intel nobody has to choose "either/or" anymore so they can just pick up a copy of OEM Windows and run bootcamp (which your chart doesn't figure in, only new PCs sold) while still having the hipness of the frankly nicer looking Apple hardware.

      Mark my words if you produce a chart for ARM 5 years from now you'll see the same thing, as i predict they will run into their own wall in less than 3, only instead of thermal it'll be battery life. Then just like with PCs people will simply keep them until they die, although naturally their sales will be a little higher as its easier for your dog to eat your phone than your desktop.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    79. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Gilmoure · · Score: 1

      Read Cringley on IBM. Winter is coming.

      --
      I drank what? -- Socrates
    80. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wow, a completely clueless Linux advocate.

      You are predicting "exponential growth" in a rapidly declining market segment. Nobody's going to care about "preinstalls" because the PC as a consumer item will be dead.

      I suppose the good news for Linux is that the few remaining PC users will be programmers and engineers and the like. But otherwise your scenario indicates you haven't left your basement in 10 years.

    81. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by theArtificial · · Score: 1

      Did you even read the page you linked to? I quote: "TrueType is an outline font standard originally developed by Apple Computer in the late 1980s as a competitor to Adobe's Type 1 fonts used in PostScript."

      Indeed I did, did you read the part where Apple gave them a license for free to help make it popular as well as develop several fonts for it to ensure its success? It's called collaboration and I used the word helped, which is what they did like when they bought a bunch of stock to save Apple's ass (although not out of the goodness of their hearts).

      Most high profile games that are multi-platform use C/C++ code rather than XNA.

      And what you're missing is before XNA there wasn't an easy way to develop for consoles. You needed a very expensive developer unit (which weren't given to mere mortals). XNA changed that. I don't own an XBOX360 FYI, but I'm not ignorant to the fact that nobody else did what they did before them. That's what my point is.

      The .NET framework borrowed ideas from Cocoa and Java.

      Which borrowed ideas from languages before them, and improved upon them in other ways.

      Regardless if these are massive steps forward, even small ones, they're innovations none the less and everybody stands upon the shoulders of giants. Apple didn't invent the mp3 player either but there is a reason people ask if you have an iPod when referring to portable media players instead of an MP3 player.

      Nope.

      I noticed you didn't spend any time providing any links, you must be lazy.

      --
      Man blir trött av att gå och göra ingenting.
    82. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Linux Lover Retard? I suggest you learn how a calendar works. MS "illegal monopoly control of the OEM preinstalls" ended way before Linux became viable as an alternative for the normal user. Today it may be - 5 years ago no fucking chance. Your argument is only valid if one ignores that the dates do not match up. And even then Linux has quite some issues that still need to be solved.

    83. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by theArtificial · · Score: 1

      MS skunkworks is truly amazing! Surface (both the original table and the new tablet), Photosynth,... Some of that stuff is revolutionary!

      Engineers doing R&D can be awesome at nearly every company. Looking back upon Microsoft's innovations a more pressing question (in my mind) is what are they doing now? They're certainly not leading like they were in the 90s, when companies feared getting into the same market as Microsoft. I wish we had Bell Labs still...

      I think this article shows us why - the individual divisions are very innovative. But they compete with each other, distracting them from actually doing anything in the market.

      Agreed, pretty lame for the company as a whole.

      Perfect example of why companies shouldn't be allowed to grow into obesity! It's interesting to note that breaking up MS would probably have been a good thing for the market.

      I understand what you're saying and it's an interesting thought experiment. Although, there are plenty of massive companies out there who do it right (arguably the success maybe due to different culture) such as BP, IBM, Boeing etc.

      --
      Man blir trött av att gå och göra ingenting.
    84. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Tough+Love · · Score: 1

      Linux already owns the phone market and will completely destroy Microsoft on tablets, then laptops next Face it, you guys are done for. Maybe if you could fire Ballmer, but you can't so suck it up.

      --
      When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
    85. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Tough+Love · · Score: 1

      That's not sounding good for Microsoft at all. But we knew that.

      --
      When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
    86. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Gumbercules!! · · Score: 4, Funny

      "...Microsoft was never bothered by sybian selling 10's of millions of phones even though it could do various office and web browsing task...".

      Hilarious typo.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sybian

    87. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by chrisxcr1 · · Score: 1

      Had they recognized the wave of competition in digital and the commodization of digital cameras, and instead of shifting to low end competitions with manufacturers of cheap equipment and focused on the higher-end large margins in the commercial market (as IBM did with computers), they might have survived.

      Yeah, they sort of tried that too but the Graphic Communications division is saddled with the same clueless fucktard executives as the rest of the company. They used to have great service and support but now they can't even keep their software up to date with current releases of Java and quality control on their consumables has gone down hill. They had a pretty dominant position in the printing industry but they're pissing that away now too.

    88. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by inasity_rules · · Score: 4, Interesting

      What? Sarcasm? Most people I know love their outdated android phones. I run a Symbian Nokia, but I made the mistake of buying an iPad. It good hardware, but the app store is hopelessly crippled in my country. All the interesting stuff requires me to be be in America with an American credit card. I would never buy an iPhone for that reason alone. Bottom line; consumers will only tolerate lockin if they can get what they want, and apple is in the business of screwing their non US customers. Also the ui sucks. I think based on this, outside of the US, apple will lose a lot of ground.

      --
      I have determined that my sig is indeterminate.
    89. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by west · · Score: 2

      I get it, but where's the analogy to the iPhone. It's not as if another mainstream OS and office package is eating Microsoft's lunch.

      They'll own the PC until the end of time, and unless you are actually predicting the end of PC (which is going nowhere for most of the world and *especially* business), Microsoft is going to be around for a long, long time.

      No, they haven't got any real winners in the pipeline, but then, owning the PC market, they scarcely need it to be a viable company. They just aren't the technical and stock market darlings of yore. But then, neither are most companies that produce a dependable, but not vastly growing stream of income.

    90. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Belial6 · · Score: 3, Informative

      No they don't. Saying that people hate their Android phones doesn't make it so. Watch this. People hate their iPhones. Talk to almost anyone who isn't an Apple fan and they will tell you that they'd rather have and Android. That doesn't make it true. Both Android and iPhones are widely available, and both can be had as a pack in to the phone plan. People using iPhones generally prefer iPhones, and people using Android phones generally prefer Android.

    91. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by west · · Score: 2

      Of course they use a lot of different technology. But pretty much every single employee get a PC with Windows and Office. Name any other company that's pretty much guaranteed to get paid for every corporate employee in North America. More to the point, almost all the high-end infrastructure has competitors. You can replace Oracle with DB2 or a dozen others. You can replace one flavor of Unix with another.

      Nothing replaces Windows and Office. And unlike other infrastructure, you pay for it for every employee.

    92. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But percentage of installed base does not always correlate with revenue or profits. Apple gets the lions share of the revenue and profitability of the entire cell phone market, with a small market share. Android is part of the race to the bottom, that MS is trying to get out of with things like Windows 8 and the Surface tablets,

      http://www.asymco.com/2012/02/03/first-apples-rank-in-mobile-phone-profitability-and-revenues/

    93. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't know a single Microsoft employee - out of several dozen - who actually likes Ballmer as a CEO. That he needs to go is considered a well-established fact in the corridors on the campus, at least among the rank and file (developers and QA, and management immediately above them).

    94. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by west · · Score: 1

      The Price/Earnings ratio is irrelevant to whether a company is doomed. In terms of whether a company is viable, income and cash flow are what really matters. Having a low P/E just means that the gamblers on the stock market don't think they're going to be doubling their money on you. And they won't with MS.

      The fact that MS is not a growth stock probably means it's a *safer* bet than the latest rocket up (and then often enough, down).

      (Sorry, but I lived through the dot-com bust. The idea that the stock market is anything more than a guess about the double derivative of expectations about what some other sucker will pay down the line is long dead. If you're expecting the stock market to actually provide an in-depth valuation about what a tech company is really worth, you're in for some deep disappointment.)

    95. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There are plenty of quite capable people that are screwed by stack ranking. Just because you don't know any (or have convinced yourself that they aren't actually good), does not actually make it so.

      The flaw in stack ranking is quite obvious - it's a system that, when you have a team consisting of Steve Wozniak, Linus Torvalds and John Carmack, says that one of them must be ranked as "good", one as "average", and one as "bad". Needless to say, when someone that good is ranked in the lowest bucket and has an embarrassing "talk" with his manager (which is actually often more embarrassing to the manager, since they have to give some humane explanation for the ranking - and often there simply isn't any), they get pissed off and quit. Heck, even if they were actually just average, why tell them they're bad? There's this inane idea that by stack ranking you get to keep the best and the brightest while getting rid of the "deadweight". But in practice all it gives you is the constant churn of people who aren't quite geniuses, and every now and then it makes a genuinely good guy to quit (not always because he falls victim to the system; smart people tend to see the flaw in it, and quit while they're the king of the hill rather than wait for the bucket to be passed to them).

    96. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      What I'm still waiting for is some mobile OS that would actually let apps run in windows - you know, the kind you can move around with a mouse, resize etc. Not as a default mode of operation, but rather as an option side by side with fullscreen. So that I can use the same apps on my mobile devices and on my desktop, but use them in a way that's actually convenient on that desktop (which in my case comes with a 27" screen).

      There's no way Apple is going to have that. I was actually hoping for Win8 to do that, but Metro is mostly fullscreen, with a minor feature of being able to dock two apps side by side. So here's hopes that Google will make a push for the desktop - though they probably want to solidify their tablet story first.

    97. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by TheRaven64 · · Score: 2

      Sales aren't nearly as important as installed base. For a lot of desktop users, 1GHz was the point at which 'fast enough' happened and they stopped upgrading unless something broke. My mother is in this category and is still using a computer from about a decade ago. It's much harder to find someone using a 10-year-old mobile phone, smart or otherwise. Look on eBay and by the time a smartphone is two years old its resale value drops to almost nothing.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    98. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by TheRaven64 · · Score: 3, Funny

      "C++" (which, as I understand it, is also hated by most who use it)

      Not true, a kind of Stockholm Syndrome seems to affect C++ programmers. There are self-help groups available, but first they need to admit that they have a problem and most are still in denial. Even then, their dislike of the language is nothing compared to the raw hatred experienced by those of us who have implemented the abomination and know exactly how much of it is undefined or implementation defined...

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    99. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      They'll own the PC until the end of time

      Just like IBM did.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    100. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Hognoxious · · Score: 4, Funny

      only managed to eek out

      Presumably we're talking about the division that produces mice?

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    101. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I didn't know you had enrolled in the "stupidest comment" contest. Well done !

    102. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Have to say some of these examples are clunkers:

      • Intellisense: I've usually got a pretty good idea what method I am gonna call, and dislike having the editor stop responding to keystrokes and start grinding the disk just so it can pop up a scroll box full of irrellevant names without accompanying descriptions.
      • The browser agent is probably the most falsified datum in history
      • TrueType was developed by Apple for the Macintosh
      • ClearType: a similar technique was used in the Apple II
      • The Taskbar was predated by icon trays in multiple earlier desktops including CDE and RISCOS
      • Dynamic HTML desktop? Oh! Active Desktop! Crap idea since killed off.
      • Shadow copy? Plan 9 and probably earlier systems had versioning filesystems
    103. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by sjames · · Score: 1

      What killed them is that they failed to recognize that they didn't know much about developing electronic devices and that, in-fact, their products were low end to midrange. As a result they charged way too much money and lost sales to cheaper but more functional products.

      They also tried really hard to preserve the take pictures and send something off to be turned into prints model in the form of an expensive digital to print offerings.

      Meanwhile, the consumer market was flooded with inexpensive snapshot cameras that could easily print to a consumer color printer. They would have had to offer a great value (read low cost but high quality) on the pro side to gain any traction against the incumbents since they were known for their film, not for cameras.

    104. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by sjames · · Score: 1

      Yes, companies can continue to thrive by adapting, but they have to actually adapt to do that.

      IBM has done a lot of changing and adapting, starting with the release of the PC once they saw that personal computers were no longer the realm of the hobbyist willing to do some soldering and toggle the bootloader in in octal.

    105. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Can't be doing much Flash games then, as i keep seeing Core Duo choke on those.

    106. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by sjames · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Where are these people who hate their Android device? I haven't met them. I have met plenty who are annoyed about some aspect, just like iPhone. I have met people annoyed they can't get the latest Android goodness on their existing device because of a brain-dead carrier, but it's not Android or the device they hate.

    107. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by FudRucker · · Score: 1

      yup, microsoft will forever be known as some evil greedy corporate software giant, they have typecast themselves by their own heavy hands, I doubt they will ever erase their own tainted reputation.

      --
      Politics is Treachery, Religion is Brainwashing
    108. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Hognoxious · · Score: 4, Insightful

      but Kodak is a casualty to technology.

      That's one of those things that everyone knows ... and it's baloney.

      Kodak pioneered digital imaging. They invented the CCD.

      Unfortunately they were so worried about cannibalizing their existing film based business that they failed to exploit it. The problem with that logic is that if you don't, someone else will. And boy, did they!

      Kodak were a casualty of strategy - mainly their own.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    109. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      despite being a brilliant business man, is a horrifically bad visionary and leader.

      Isn't that a contradiction in terms? How can you be a brilliant business man while being a horrifically bad visionary and leader? Sure, there is lots of luck in the equation, but luck doesn't make you brilliant.

    110. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by buglista · · Score: 3, Insightful

      "The first optical mouse."
      Bollocks. I was using a SUN optical mouse way before MS came out with anything.

    111. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Uberbah · · Score: 1

      Indeed I did, did you read the part where Apple gave them a license for free to help make it popular as well as develop several fonts for it to ensure its success? It's called collaboration

      No, it's called licensing someone else's product. Apple licensed the pdf format for their operating system from Adobe...does that mean that pdf is an Apple innovation?

      which is what they did like when they bought a bunch of stock to save Apple's ass

      Myth. The stock purchase was to end litigation over Microsoft using stolen Quicktime code, nothing more.

    112. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nokia and Kodak all had very clear competitors with interchangeable products.

      Microsoft is not quite in that position yet. Because of commercial business, Windows and Office will contain their reigns. However I do believe that OS alternatives like OSX and branded/skinned versions of Linux will make increasingly larger dents. Microsoft's biggest threat is clearly Google, who, like a parasite, will introduce and indoctrinate users and consumers to their products on the back of Windows, only to one day quietly eliminate the actual Windows part--and many users will never even notice.

    113. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Plan 9 and probably earlier systems had versioning filesystems

      DEC RSX-11 (the predecessor to VMS) and MIT ITS both had versioning file systems.

    114. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by RogerWilco · · Score: 1

      Right, but not even 20 years ago they were a bit player in the office products business, and not a player at all in the game console business.

      Times change, companies evolve. Microsoft has the cash to turn itself into a car company if it wants to (I'm not sure why it would want to, but it can do pretty much whatever it wants). Whether or not they will latch on to a successful strategy in the future remains to be seen. Right now they're riding their giant piles of free money from Windows and Office to experiment with other areas (gaming, mobiles, various corporate computing tools etc.), if one of those strategies pans out they may jump headlong into that rather than PC's.

      This is the problem with MS. Just like IBM in the eighties, they don't want to jump into anything new, if it is a potential danger to their Windows and Office cash cows.

      They will probably survive, but in a way that GM and IBM survived, basically by having a near death experience. Apple has proven that you can recover from that.

      --
      RogerWilco the Adventurous Janitor
    115. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by RogerWilco · · Score: 1

      I think Windows will die when the desktop dies. I don't see Linux taking over. Linux works if the hardware provider provides the drivers and makes sure it works. Because of this it works in the phone market and similar areas. Linux as a consumer OS is too much trouble, as there are often problems with supporting the hardware, especially on laptops.

      Linux on the desktop only works if most hardware vendors support it. It will not be the other way around, where Linux becomes a success on the desktop and then hardware vendors start supporting it. The problem is that this would require a major shift in thinking for the Linux developers, on two levels, the hardware abstraction level and the support for binary blobs in the kernel. I assume the latter one is known, but what I mean with the first one, is that currently a lot of the hardware abstraction needs to be done by the desktop manager, like Gnome or KDE because the kernel doesn't have high enough level abstraction. There are related issues, like a clear way to manage applications. I really like the single .app that OSX has in that regard.

      --
      RogerWilco the Adventurous Janitor
    116. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by cyber-vandal · · Score: 2

      Careful, that's heresy around here. You'll get patronised to death by people telling you everything runs in the browser now, even though it doesn't.

    117. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by RogerWilco · · Score: 1

      What makes MS strong is Exchange (GroupWise and Lotus Notes aren't in the same ballpark) and Excel, especially combined with VB scripting.

      Those are the two pillars on which the Office monopoly rests, not Word, PowerPoint, Visio or what have you.

      Especially in large companies (1000+) these are real winners. Nothing FOSS or otherwise can compare.

      --
      RogerWilco the Adventurous Janitor
    118. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by RogerWilco · · Score: 1

      Exactly. The power of MS is Exchange and Excel (with VB scritping).

      If the FOSS community would make a killer groupware tool and create a spreadsheet that's scriptable in for example python, then MS would be in trouble. Even if a closed source compettitor did it.

      --
      RogerWilco the Adventurous Janitor
    119. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Lehk228 · · Score: 2

      But enough about RIM

      Sent from my Blackberry

      --
      Snowden and Manning are heroes.
    120. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think you were slightly off. They developed this new whiz-bang digital technology but benched it because they didn't want it to compete with their chemical & paper margins.

    121. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Neil+Boekend · · Score: 1

      Linux will be cheaper once the payed preinstalled crapware is available on Linux. Windows doesn't cost the OEM a dime in the end, because the crapware they are payed to preinstall results in enough money to pay for the Windows license (which isn't all that expensive for an OEM).
      Do you really think that PC's came with fucking Norton because the OEMs love Norton? No, its because Norton pays them to install their crap. I'd be baffeled if they installed the same virusscanner on their employee's systems.

      --
      Well, I might have a way, but it only works on a semi spherical planet in a vacuum.
    122. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Billly+Gates · · Score: 1

      Your mother would be a classic example of using a tablet like an IPad or Amazon fire for her email and reading her books. People replaced their computer eveyr 2 - 3 years back in the 1990s just like they do with phones. Once things start stabilizing I predict the same for smart phones and tablets. In 10 years corporations will start to move that way too.

      AD and static directory services are really a pain in the ass in this mobile age where a policy uploaded from an exchange email server can be uploaded to a Windows 8 device. My guess is future versions of Andriod and iOS will take the same settings and lock down other devices at work too similiar to Blackberry tools.

      MS is in trouble indeed even if they do have an increase in sales the p/e and costs are going way higher than the revenue increases and this is what people saying MS is as strong as ever fail to see. IBM had a similiar downfall right before it had to leave the PC market and refocus itself.

    123. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Mark my words if you produce a chart for ARM 5 years from now you'll see the same thing, as i predict they will run into their own wall in less than 3, only instead of thermal it'll be battery life. Then just like with PCs people will simply keep them until they die, although naturally their sales will be a little higher as its easier for your dog to eat your phone than your desktop.

      ARM has already spoken about the coming age of "dark silicon" where the process advancement creates the possibility of integrating so many transistors that the available power can't keep up. In some ways it is the same power wall problem as on the desktop side. The transistors are not efficient enough.

    124. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Billly+Gates · · Score: 1

      The Price/Earnings ratio is irrelevant to whether a company is doomed. In terms of whether a company is viable, income and cash flow are what really matters. Having a low P/E just means that the gamblers on the stock market don't think they're going to be doubling their money on you. And they won't with MS.

      The fact that MS is not a growth stock probably means it's a *safer* bet than the latest rocket up (and then often enough, down).

      (Sorry, but I lived through the dot-com bust. The idea that the stock market is anything more than a guess about the double derivative of expectations about what some other sucker will pay down the line is long dead. If you're expecting the stock market to actually provide an in-depth valuation about what a tech company is really worth, you're in for some deep disappointment.)

      I strongly disagree as it is the only thing that matters if you are publically traded. ... ok maybe if you pay a good dividend it wont matter as much I guess. But MS historically did not and pays a pittance.

      The goal of a company is to raise its share price. Not make money. Nothing else matters. I studies the firing of Home Depot's CEO in business school. He increased sales by 80%, lowered its debt, did everything right for the company to grow and its profits were sky high! What did the shareholders do? They fired him. Why?

      Share price did not go up. In finance you need to have the right magic ratios to do this. You need lots of debt to increase the cash on hand, increase liquid assets (things you can sell to make money fast/er) so you can show Wall Street that you can sell things to meet its quarterly expections, keep costs down, and grow quarter by quarter.

      Look at from this angle? You pay x amount for shares of Microsoft that do not pay a dividend? Where is your money? Will you ever see it again? Unless the share price increases in value you just flushed it down the toilet.

      MS needs to increase its debt load and liquid assets and use that cash to break into more markets and invest in itself while at the same time cut its costs by laying people off. HP, IBM, and others are all doing that with the profit per employee ratio. That or Balmer and Gates need to buy back the rest of the 40% of the shares of Microsoft and go private.

    125. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      An iPad would be terrible for my mother - the screen is too small for her eyesight, and she'd want to use it with a keyboard most of the time because most of what she does with a computer is writing letters and emails, yet the iPad + dock is very bad for ergonomics. She did borrow an iPad for a couple of weeks from work, but found she almost never used it.

      The difference with mobile phones is that they're often replaced because they're broken, not because they're obsolete. A phone is far more likely to be dropped, battered, and damaged than a desktop computer.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    126. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I work in public education (K-12 mostly) and have worked with many school districts state wide. Microsoft (both Windows and Office) will be irrelevant sooner rather than later. Yes it may still be a few more years. Maybe a decade at most. But they will become irrelevant. Why? Because they were once solid in educational institutions. These students graduated and went into business and the economy wanting to use the same tools they used when in school. Now students want to use iPads and Android tablets. They have Google Apps for Education accounts and don't see the need for Office anymore and want web-based access. I've seen students use only their iPhone or Android phone to do everything from email, to create an entire report, to even present in front of a class with it. When this generation becomes the next generation of business leaders and industry consumers, they will want to use the same tools they used when they were in school...which does not include much with Microsoft.

    127. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Some of these are definite innovations that Microsoft deserves credit for. Some are examples of Microsoft working well with the wider industry. But most are examples of Microsoft doing a better job of popularizing other people's inventions. Take TrueType and ClearType - TrueType is an Apple technology, while ClearType is just Microsoft's brand name for sub pixel rendering, which was invented by IBM.

      And really, you're including "User-Agent" in there? The only reason User-Agent exists is because Microsoft decided to do the "Embrace, Extend, Extinguish" routine on HTML with their own proprietary extensions, and so web servers had to know which web browser they were talking to, because standards-compliant HTML rendered differently on IE.

      Microsoft didn't invent "AJAX," per se, but they did invent XMLHttpRequest, so we'll give them credit for that.

      Photosynth? "Photosynth is based on Photo Tourism, a research project by University of Washington graduate student Noah Snavely. Shortly after Microsoft's acquisition of Seadragon in early 2006, that team began work on Photosynth, under the direction of Seadragon founder Blaise Aguera y Arcas."

    128. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by hairyfeet · · Score: 1

      Actually I've been dealing with that problem and home consumers quite nicely here at the shop, as any $15 GPU can give you full hardware flash acceleration and nearly every PC from 2006 on up has a PCIe slot. Take any HD4650 or HD5450 and you have plenty of RAM for the GPU and fully accelerated H.264, Flash, and DivX which is the three main formats people watch nowadays so there really is no reason to replace that Athlon X2, Phenom I, or Core Duo as its simply cheaper to pay a guy like me to slap in a GPU and call it a day. hell even the wimpiest PSUs can support those cards with ease and with the latest codec pack from AMD its plug and play, hassle free.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    129. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by west · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That's exactly the analogy. IBM *still* owns the mainframe. The only thing that killed IBM (although it changed business models to become very successful today) is that the market itself disappeared.

      If you believe that the general purpose PC (I include Macs in this) is going to die, then MS is in trouble. But that's not happening. PC sales are stagnant, after all, it's already owns the world, but the PC in business (and a good number of homes) is pretty much like a utility like oil or electricity. It's not going away.

      The phones and pads may supplement, but we're not seeing any substantial replacement.

    130. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by hackula · · Score: 1

      Wow, terrific counter-point!

    131. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by west · · Score: 1

      Okay, two things - the view as a stock holder (in which case you are quite correct), and the view of what makes a healthy long-term company. The two are only somewhat connected. As a stock, MS sucks. It's an ideal income trust vehicle (lower expenses and all income goes out as dividends) as really, it's a utility. However, management wants to believe it can find *huge* success somewhere new and throws a lot of money down the drain to do it.

      The truth is most companies only get one big winning idea. Microsoft got two (Windows + Office). Expecting a third, when MS's chances of success on each gamble aren't much better than J Random company (and possibly lower), is a pipe-dream. Better to invest in 10,000 companies who spend a million dollars, than in 100 MS schemes each costing a billion.

      (At least a company that invests a million can claim victory if it makes 10 million. Companies like Apple can have fantastic successes that make 25 million and it will be ho-hum and shut it down.)

      And yes, Apple is the darling because it's had 5 big ideas come up success: Apple II, Mac, iPod, iPhone and iPad. But pretending any company can do that (or that Apple is guaranteed another big idea) is, as always, just a gamble. Why not gamble with a company that has a lot less to lose?

    132. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 1

      And Dunder Mifflin.

      I want you to pack your things when we get back to the office.

    133. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by ilguido · · Score: 1

      Not in the slightest. When they launched the Xbox 360 they were negative by about 4 billions thanks to the original xbox, but the 360 made huge losses again. And it's still faltering.

    134. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by ilguido · · Score: 1

      Right, but not even 20 years ago they were a bit player in the office products business, and not a player at all in the game console business.

      Their console business is still not sustainable after all these years.

    135. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by hairyfeet · · Score: 1

      The other guy said get her an iPad but that's bunk, wanna know what would be perfect for her? Something like this, its cheap, 12 inches seems to be the perfect size from dealing with older customers, and it lets her get comfy anywhere and do her email on the Wifi.

      But as someone who builds new PCs and sells used as well I can tell you another problem isn't just the speed factor, its that most multicores are more than powerful enough for the average person and they just don't die like they used to. I have several customers with early Athlon X2 and Core Duos and frankly they just can't stress the chips, hence they just don't die. hell i sold my full size laptop for a 12 inch E350, why? Because when i'm mobile I'm frankly not stressing even the E350 and that is one of the weakest chips out there, my surfing just can't push it.

      The only reason we are seeing such growth in mobile is they too are having a MHz war but it already looks to be coming to an end, with not heat but battery life becoming the issue. When that happens you'll see the same thing we are seeing now in PCs, people not replacing a unit until they die, although mobile will have a higher turnover simply because its easier to step on your phone or drop it down the stairs than it is your laptop.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    136. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by hairyfeet · · Score: 1

      Man PLEASE don't bring up WinFS, that thing STILL pisses me off! Have you seen the demo they had for it? Imagine a SMART file system, where you could type in "girl in a yellow dress" and the OS would know WTF you are talking about and instantly pop up any videos or pictures you had that had girls in yellow dresses. Any files it had problems with it would ask you about and once you put in the metadata that was it, no more trying to remember WTF you called a file or using old school wildcards, it would all be cataloged and ready to go!

      The sad part is if they could get stuff like THAT to market it would probably cause a new PC explosion because one demo of that and they'd be lining up to hand MSFT their money, but as you said they can't ever seen to get the really cool stuff out of the drawing room and into the showroom.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    137. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They'll own the PC until the end of time, and unless you are actually predicting the end of PC (which is going nowhere for most of the world and *especially* business), Microsoft is going to be around for a long, long time.

      A bold statement, considering we're in the "post-PC era." Really though, I look at how much touchpads have changed things in the past couple of years, and I don't think I'd be so quick to declare the PC future-safe. Things are changing exponentially.

    138. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Inferior product? Careful.. your bias is showing. What about Windows? Office? Xbox? Visual Studio? C#?

      Windows is shitty, but the rest of the products you mention are pretty cool. Outlook, though I have no use for it, is nicer than the alternatives (Blowtus Goats, Novell GroupWise). I think SQL Server is decent too.

      Windows Mobile is an abomination, but I suppose that falls under the "Windows" category. And everyone hates Internet Explorer. VB.Net is kind of gay too. If you're developing .Net, why not just go all the way and use C#??? IIS can be very frustrating, often. Hotmail and Zune are useless. I wouldn't touch any of their cloud services, as they have a habit of ditching products at random. Sharepoint is useless...

    139. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastman_Kodak#Shift_to_digital

      "Although Kodak developed a digital camera in 1975, the first of its kind, the product was dropped for fear it would threaten Kodak's photographic film business."

      I've read more than one report dissecting the bad decisions Kodak made. Your take on it is kind of a whitewash.

    140. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by dentin · · Score: 1

      You are wrong. IBM was extremely close to being busted up, sold off, and closed in the early 90's. Lou Gerstner barely managed to save the company.

      I know. I was working there.

      -dentin

      --
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    141. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They will probably survive, but in a way that GM and IBM survived, basically by having a near death experience. Apple has proven that you can recover from that.

      Yeah, but to do it requires a leader with vision. Ballmer doesn't qualify, and the board steadfastly refuses to throw him out on his ass even though they should have done it years ago.

    142. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by theswimmingbird · · Score: 0

      I'll just leave this here.

    143. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They certainly didn't make the first optical mouse. The first commercially available one was from Mouse Systems way back in 1982.

      On the other hand, Microsoft did make the Intellimouse With Intellieye and the Intellimouse Explorer, which Wikipedia credits as being the "first commercially successful optical mice"; they were introduced in 1999 based on technology developed at HP. Unlike the early optical mice, they did not require a special mouse pad, instead using an optoelectronic sensor that could read contrast from most surfaces.

    144. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Jesus_666 · · Score: 1

      I do spend quite a bit of my spare time on a Windows computer... but that's just because Windows is still the best platform for games. For me Windows is just an immensely bloated shell around DirectX that happens to be able to run arbitrary applications.

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    145. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I love how in your microsoft innovation links, you link to the TrueType Wikipedia page whose first line is "TrueType is an outline font standard originally developed by Apple Computer "

    146. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Sir_Sri · · Score: 1

      Ya, thats what I get for using a european spell check I suppose.

    147. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Sir_Sri · · Score: 1

      Which I will point out, they have a strategy for. Did you see smartglass or whatever the hell they called in at E3?

    148. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      And it is not just the oppinion of some /. reader, there's even is an old joke about Microsoft's car, go google it. That joke was made by a normal person, not a computer geek.

      If it's the joke I'm thinking of, I made it and posted it on my old Quake site some time before 2000. And I assure you, I am indeed a geek.

    149. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm not refuting what you said, but I'm just curious, what apps won't it let you buy when you don't have an American credit card?

    150. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by thetoadwarrior · · Score: 1

      A lot of people have been saying that MS has been on a downfall. No one is saying it'll happen over night but the point a lot of people do think it's a work in progress right now thanks mainly to the guy voted as the worst CEO.

    151. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by thetoadwarrior · · Score: 1

      Yeah they became a better playing in the software game mainly through underhanded tactics. They're only *just* in second place (despite all of Sony's monumental cock-ups) in the console biz and far away from first place. The 360's is pretty unpopular outside of the north America and the UK. When that is considered a success that just shows you how far they have fallen.

    152. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Warmlight · · Score: 1

      The failed to predict the mobile phone camera. They focused on the lower end of the market, and smart phones with their 5-15megapixel cameras blew them out the market.

    153. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by sjames · · Score: 1

      The phone cameras were the last straw but they were well on their way down by then.

    154. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They won the PC-DOS contract in 1981, overlaid it with Windows GUI 4 years later...Apple that were doing the innovating.....

      By giving Xerox a bunch of stock in their company for access to their GUI technology, essentially buying technology just like Microsoft?

      What Apple got was literally a tour of the lab and some demos. One time. If that's "buying technology" to you I don't know what to say.

      Apple's actual GUI technology was built from the ground up by Apple. Technologically, it didn't look like Xerox's at all. Xerox built theirs using Smalltalk and OOP design principles, Apple used a mix of a Pascal dialect (not object oriented) and a substantial amount of wizard-coded 68K assembly language. (Jobs later realized that building a non-OOP system was a mistake, but then again the original Mac dealt with some pretty harsh constraints by today's standards, like trying to cram much of the OS into a 64kB ROM.) There were fundamental design philosophy differences too. Xerox's GUI was designed by programmers working in a blue-sky R&D lab and it reflected their own needs, while Apple's GUI was designed as a mass market product intended to bring computing to people who knew little or nothing about how computers worked.

      The most important thing Apple got out of the famous tour was "GUI is really important because so many things in this demo blew our minds". Before the tour, Jobs hadn't been convinced that GUIs were the future. After the tour, he knew.

    155. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by catmistake · · Score: 1

      "C++" (which, as I understand it, is also hated by most who use it)

      Not true, a kind of Stockholm Syndrome seems to affect C++ programmers. There are self-help groups available, but first they need to admit that they have a problem and most are still in denial. Even then, their dislike of the language is nothing compared to the raw hatred experienced by those of us who have implemented the abomination and know exactly how much of it is undefined or implementation defined...

      My bland and uninsightful comment is really not worthy of this brilliant response. I thank you, sir, for the generosity of your spirit.

    156. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by hairyfeet · · Score: 1

      Already seen that thanks. if you want to see the difference between a true leader, ruthless bastard though he was, and Ballmer you should read the yellow road to Cairo where with NOTHING but screenshots and pure bullshit Gates managed to keep the entire industry waiting on MSFT while causing corps with actual selling products to flop because he would lay on the BS so thick everyone looked at the fake screenshots and turned up their nose at the actual products.

      Now was that a nice thing to do? Fuck no it wasn't, but it showed what kind of uber sized brass balls Gates was swinging and further shows just how truly pathetic Ballmer is compared to Gates. Gates, Jobs, and Ellison are just in a class by themselves, while Ballmer is the jester doing a little dance and hoping people will buy the shtick, he just doesn't deserve the big chair.

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    157. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're on to something with that line of reasoning. I was thinking more in the lines of: ranking people is a linear process, while life usually is a non-linear process, therefore such systems always end up underperforming!

      Can you measure a beginner's advances 3 years in the future?
      Can you measure a stars performance in the next 2 years?
      Can you measure performance or potential at all, and what limitation and consequences do you impose by such "measurements"?

      It all ends up as a poor-man's management tool which destroys productivity, team spirit and loyalty.

      Why not quit and join a start-up with that new idea? When anyways you're not treated as a human being in that big corporation, there's no reason to stick.
      Your "top people" can often be invisible, or be the kind of people creating a great environment for everyone. Some qualities you just can't measure.
      Your most wise people will leave such disrespectful systems, searching for better places to work and live in.
      Don't underestimate love. Accepting and helping people grow where they are, is love. Take away love, and spirit soon follows. A "culture" based on something other than love, will meet a wall and explode at some point in time.

    158. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I find it odd that people think android on the desktop will be the death of Windows.

      Android on the desktop won't kill Windows for the same reason people are abandoning Ubuntu-- people used to a desktop operating system will not accept a Fischer Price substitute.

      Now OSX on PC on the other hand, that would be a huge fucking problem for Microsoft. It will never happen tho. Apple is making too much money selling you the overpriced plastic & aluminum box OSX comes in.

      You may think I'm talking out of my ass, but go watch someone use windows 7 starter for the first time. Take a shot if the crippled features cause them to say "Are you fucking kidding me?!". Finish the bottle if they install pirated XP from a flash drive.

      So, windows 7 starter sucks... what's my point? My point is that LESS FEATURES is unacceptable, and that's what (most of) the alternatives to windows offer.

      And btw, windows 8 will suck, because microsoft is using a toy (iPad) as a model for building a general purpose big-boy tool (desktop OS).

    159. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by catmistake · · Score: 1

      Unfortunately they were so worried about cannibalizing their existing film based business that they failed to exploit it. The problem with that logic is that if you don't, someone else will. And boy, did they!

      This is a simplistic view and often repeated myth. There is no exploiting technology that is too expensive for the consumer to be interested in, as was the case when Kodak invented digital photography. Kodak didn't bury the technology because they were afraid, but because due to cost it was unmarketable, they shelved it. Certainly, some individuals within Kodak's ranks had this concern, but it's an absurd claim that there was this paralyzing fear of progress. Kodak saw the future and began to make changes, had a plan to completely switch to digital, but competing against much less expensive manufacturing processes for tiny margins was the mistake they made; it wasn't simply "failing to exploit" digital technology. Kodak couldn't make digital camera's as cheaply as new foreign industrialists could with exponentially cheaper labor. That's what killed them... not this ridiculous notion of fear of progress. Kodak's history is filled with breaking ground and changing processes and embracing technology... they didn't have a history of burying their head in the sand, but innovating new fascinating technologies. But once the game becomes who can sell more products with insignificant profit margins, Kodak failed to be nimble enough to take on the new emerging global markets.

    160. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by jedwidz · · Score: 1

      Did I really write that comment? It came out all wrong.

      IMHO, I agree that Microsoft is, at their core, not an innovative company.

      And AmigaBasic was woeful.

      What I wanted to point out was that Microsoft had their hands tied in the 80's, insofar as they were merely an OS vendor for a very nasty hardware platform they had little control over.

      In order to connect with their market, they were stuck with targetting the lowest common denominator of 8086 with CGA graphics.

      It wasn't until 80386 and VGA were commonplace (circa 1990?) that Microsoft could feasibly have done anything ground-breaking in the OS space. And with Windows 3, they made it clear that breaking ground wasn't their strategy.

    161. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by catmistake · · Score: 2

      Meanwhile, the consumer market was flooded with inexpensive snapshot cameras

      yes, the point I keep trying to make... Kodak delved into this market, and that was a mistake-- inexpensive snapshot cameras wouldn't exactly produce the margins Kodak needed to survive unless they were the only manufacturer... but there were literally hundreds of competing companies overseas flooding the domestic market, all after these minuscule margins. While the overseas worker could be exploited, and I think likely still is, most of Kodak's labor force was in the US. No one cares if a cheap camera is made by higher quality (and more expemsive) domestic labor.

    162. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by symbolset · · Score: 1

      There is nothing really new in Office that matters since 2000, or before.

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    163. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by symbolset · · Score: 1

      You should have been here the day they were claiming to have invented multitasking. It was hilarious.

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    164. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sorry for the late reply.
      Smart-glass is interesting, but it is fundamentally opposite in purpose and not in any way an answer.

      Smart-glass is a way of integrating an already existing Xbox with a smart-phone to enhance the interface of the Xbox. Ubuntu-android phones are a way of using your phone as a PC by using your dock to attach it to the larger peripherals and TV/screen, so as to enhance the interface of the phone towards that of a PC. They run in opposing directions in terms of what is enhanced and one requires you to have or make an investment in a large product(Xbox) while the other negates the need to make such a purchase(PC).

      Of course if they can use things like this to drive android from the market then they do not need to answer this threat. They certainly have the resources to try, but if they do not succeed then I will at least be interested in how they attempt to reply to this...

    165. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Sir_Sri · · Score: 1

      Oh, I was merely suggesting MS is trying to develop a strategy to to take on android. Just because it's probably a bad strategy doesn't mean it isn't a strategy.

      They're trying to to provide one microsoft integrated experience across your living room and PC, that integrated your smartphone and part of it goes with you with your smartphone. Now you can already do that more or less, but they figure they can make it possible for normal people to understand. I doubt they'll succeed, but who knows.

    166. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by sjames · · Score: 1

      Even there, they probably could have scraped by if they could have gotten over the send something in and have photos printed idea. They could have stayed in the consumer market by producing a slightly higher end camera and trading on their name (worth something in the snapshot market compared to the no-name cheap stuff). Alas, they over-estimated what their name was worth and instead of charging 25-50% more for a better spec. product, they wanted 100% more for a same spec. product.

    167. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Burz · · Score: 1

      Most of that stuff is tweaks, or borrowed, or inane (the "Taskbar" is really a window list, and Apple's dock is much truer to the concept and more useful to boot).

      "Lots of small innovations in .NET"... are mainly features borrowed from Delphi and elsewhere.

      Shadow Copy... I very much doubt this one, as copy-on-write capability goes back to other systems in the 1970s.

      To me, their biggest contributions seem to be in fonts and in pushing GUI programming environments (of which I consider MS Office to be a member).

    168. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Burz · · Score: 1

      I drank the "Linux Desktop" koolaid for years. It won't supplant Windows because to consumers it isn't a real thing with a consistent UI and something that tech support can easily/predictably deal with over the phone. The companies like Dell and Walmart and Asus/eeepc who tried the Linux Desktop all had distros that were dissimilar, and could never attract app developers anyway because there was no SDK.

      Linux is just a kernel, and maybe a bit more because the GNU userland is assumed (but only on a desktop or server). Everything above that low level is in flux.

      Furthermore, Android is not another Linux distro. It is its own vertically-integrated OS (with an SDK) that happens to use the Linux kernel. In terms of how its packaged and distributed, and how app developers interact with it, Android has very little in common with 'Linux distro X'. This is because the distro culture is server/hacker centric and it eschews attempts at standardizing anything that primarily manifests itself in a GUI. So if Android succeeds on the desktop, it won't be as if another distro took Ubuntu's place and then became popular; It would spell the end of the distro subculture on the desktop and its users will not think of it as "Linux" the way a Fedora of Ubuntu user does, nor will they identify as Linux users. I think that could be a good thing.

    169. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by cwsumner · · Score: 1

      Meanwhile, the consumer market was flooded with inexpensive snapshot cameras

      yes, the point I keep trying to make...

      Um... Kodak -Invented- the cheap snapshot camera! But that was the previous generation... maybe that was their problem, all of the movers were gone.

    170. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by theArtificial · · Score: 1

      Most of that stuff is tweaks, or borrowed, or inane (the "Taskbar" is really a window list, and Apple's dock is much truer to the concept and more useful to boot).

      Most things are tweaks. Ever noticed how keyboards are basically the same for over the last 100 years, ergonomic keyboards are the same keyboard split in the middle. Funny how that didn't really catch on until recently, little things make a big difference. Sorta like the little switch on a lighter that prevents children from using it. Yes it's just a little switch added to someone's design, but it's innovative. The grandparent said that Microsoft NEVER innovated, I provided some examples where they have. Now you're balking at how big they are, Bob was an innovation as well. Is it an innovation if it doesn't succeed? (rhetorical)

      "Lots of small innovations in .NET"... are mainly features borrowed from Delphi and elsewhere.

      Perhaps you're not aware they hired the man who designed Delphi to design something for them? Wouldn't you want the best? Java and Delphi (and all others) borrowed things from other languages as well and improved upon them in other ways, just like .NET does. We all stand upon the shoulders of giants, especially so in the computing world.

      Shadow Copy... I very much doubt this one, as copy-on-write capability goes back to other systems in the 1970s.

      My point is desktop operating systems didn't feature that before. DOS, Windows, Mac OS, OSX didn't feature that, so when you're introducing it to people over 30 years after it was invented where it hasn't been applied before, it's considered an innovation. I liken that to saying since a steam engine was invented back in ancient times, that modern day engines aren't innovative.

      To me, their biggest contributions seem to be in fonts and in pushing GUI programming environments (of which I consider MS Office to be a member).

      Their biggest contribution in my opinion was getting a PC into everyone's home, making it affordable and ubiquitous outside of the office. They're responsible for creating many markets which many people benefit from today, such as IT, Developers, Hardware, XBox Live. Windows for Workgroups (as much of a pile as that was) was responsible for many LANs.

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    171. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Dixie_Flatline · · Score: 1

      Intellisense is one of the first thing nearly every programmer I know turns off. On large projects, the time that it takes is prohibitive, and at least in Visual Studio 2010, it can be a major impediment to stability.

      Intellisense works, but it's a far cry from 'done well'. The plugins that I've seen that offer similar functionality in VS tend to be better and consume fewer resources.

      Microsoft didn't invent the optical mouse. I was using them on Sun workstations in University long before Microsoft came out with one. But Microsoft's were better. But since you're trying to argue that Microsoft INVENTS things, and doesn't just take things and iterate on them a bit, that's not really any help.

      The Taskbar was actually copied from NeXTStep. Y'know, Steve Jobs' company before he went back to Apple (and the fundamental underpinning of every OS X system today).

      I wouldn't stake money on them being the first to be able to alter running code while debugging it. JIT systems have existed for a long time; systems that feature a live runtime (NeXTStep, again) allow live injection of code. Smalltalk effectively allows this as well.

      Alt-Tab? There have been dozens of application switching methods, and lots of keystrokes to do it.

      There're actually quite a few things on your list where you say 'they weren't the first'. That was the POINT of the post before yours, as I recall. Moreover, you seem to be pulling stuff out of thin air and attributing it to Microsoft without any good reason. That Taskbar thing pops to mind. (And, BTW, the NeXTStep dock is still BY FAR the best one that ever existed; far superior to both the current Microsoft and Apple versions for pure functionality. Excepting, of course, for things that require enormous horsepower, like live previewing.)

      It's NOT true that Microsoft NEVER invents anything. But they DO have a track record of copying things and re-releasing them. Sometimes they do a better job, sometimes not.

    172. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by inasity_rules · · Score: 1

      Anything from spiderweb software. Most games. A couple of utilities. Thankfully iSSH works.

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    173. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      video codec - VC-1 is so like H.264/AVC that they even have many of the same patent holders.
      truetype - invented at Apple, given to Microsoft in order to hurt Adobe

    174. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by robsku · · Score: 1

      Have you seen this?
      http://www.ubuntu.com/devices/android

      I had not, thank you :) While not in hurry to get myself a smart phone (I still use an old Nokia with J2ME app support & GPRS for online usage), one day I'd like to buy an Android phone (unless something better comes up before - not from MS or Apple, I don't trust them) and this adds to make it even more attractive for me :)

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    175. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by robsku · · Score: 1

      I do with my Linux what you claim I could (but know otherwise) do with Windows, especially with my current hardware - and I run HTTP, MySQL, SSH, SMB (Samba) and ocassionally a VNC server at the same time on my main desktop/media center/server combo that, with Windows could only run one of these on this hardware - and then there would be a choice of running with crap security or having the AW/FW software slow the thing to useless anyway.

      The only thing I have missed at all is being able to play larger set of Windows games - but then there are so many great games that run with Wine or are native linux that I couldn't even try all of them anyway so while I consider myself a "low-end HC" gamer that's not a major issue for me - certainly not something I'd throw all benefits of Linux>W away for.

      So just cut the crap - enjoy doing whatever you want but cut the crap with that "server only, enjoy compiling your kernel with CLI magic"... And all the other crap too, like "Apple can't do shit" (this coming from apple hater: apples walled garden doesn't mean that, no matter how bad it is). Just stop trolling and go enjoy your BSOD.

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    176. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by robsku · · Score: 1

      If most people would indeed hate their android phones and would prefer to have an iPhone, wouldn't it already show in Android sales? Surely that would mean it's success has been a very unlikely bubble that should be bursting by now? Your claim is flawed, no matter how justified some of your criticism towards Android devices is.

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    177. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by robsku · · Score: 1

      Who needs office anymore?

      ...The reason people use Office suites these days is more from tradition than need.

      Long time Microsoft enemy here, and I have to strongly disagree. There are few packages that do what Exchange does... which boils down to, apparently, integrating calendar and mail. You're thinking too individually... an individual can find software that they like better that works better than Office, but when you add 2K - 10K collaborating users to the mix, there's nothing competing with it (there are a few alternatives, Zimbra is one ... but Exchange doesn't seem to be going anywhere even with the few actually free alternatives, and the alleged popularity of outsourcing to Google apps). Exchange admins can fuck off all they want and never worry about losing their job, and if they do, never worry about finding work... there's always an Exchange server somewhere in crisis.

      The reason people use Office is because that's what their company uses because there are few alternatives, and it came with their home computer. I have to give credit where credit is due... Exchange works pretty well, even with its lockout pitfalls and instability after not having any maintenance for a few months while corporate tries to find the rare individual that is competent at administrating the thing and isn't a complete jerk.

      But the claim made earlier on the thread was that if MS died then IT field would, because of no good alternatives to them (not word-to-word but how I read it) - it's ridiculous to claim (and no, you did not claim that on this post) that if MS suddenly died that these products wouldn't be more or less quickly (and I'd say more, but seeing how long it took to kill IE6 I'm not sure) replaced with other solutions.

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    178. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by robsku · · Score: 1

      With a little googling it seemed to me that at least OpenOffice Calc does support scripting, and via Python - I think the issue is that there is no way (at least nothing well known) to automatically convert the VB scripts from documents made with MS Office (not to save in MS format with working scripting from OO.org), at least as far as I know.

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    179. Re:"Microsoft's Downfall" by TENTH+SHOW+JAM · · Score: 1

      Let me reply thusly.
      Why am I sending word docs? If they need to edit it, then get them to edit the wiki. If not, send them a pdf. They can't screw with the contents of one of those.

      I can use margins in Word... but prefer to use indents and bullets in html.

      Until the file format in office is not locked into the MS ecosystem corporations and myself will continue to use Windows/Office

      You are therefore using Office for traditional reasons and not for any other. Thank you for confirming my last paragraph.

      I don't know who modded me up either. I am however a cubicle dweller of 15 years, so have some experience in office environments. I do not gloat the lack of fax machine or email address. I do however have no requirement for an "Office Suite" (free or otherwise)

      Windows will be around for a while... Just as Solaris is still kicking around. Just as there are breakouts of OS\2, just as there are still Novell networks. If Metro is just as classy as Vista, then there may well be ire from even those on the corporate treadmill.

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  2. So, normal s-curve? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Things start slowly, then catalyze and grow quickly, then stagnate and die. Who knew?

  3. With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Every year for over a decade I've seen Slashdot posts about how Microsoft is doomed and that Microsoft is already irrelevant and failing. ...and yet, every year when the tech companies report their earnings Microsoft will put up big numbers that are bigger than last year's. Thus, every year they can accurately claim to have made a "record" amount of money.

    I should be so lucky as to "fall" as hard as Microsoft.

    1. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Trashcan+Romeo · · Score: 5, Interesting

      There's one number that isn't bigger than last time: the amount Microsoft is charging to upgrade to the new version of Windows.

      What does that tell you?

    2. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by gabebear · · Score: 4, Informative
      They might not be going out of business, but they've had no growth over the last decade(they stopped really making money in 2000).

      Go to

      and set it to 10yr, Google even lets you compare it to the Nasdaq and Dow Jones averages (putting your money into a fund that tracked the Nasdaq over the last 10 years would have netted you 100% more money than MSFT stock).

    3. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by snowraver1 · · Score: 1

      What does that tell me? That they are planning on selling more copies making a smaller amount per copy?

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    4. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > What does that tell you?

      Upgrade pricing set in 1995 doesn't make sense when hardware costs have fallen so dramatically.

      Microsoft's impressive revenue has primarily been from squeezing more blood out of the corporate turnip. Very few consumers actually upgrade their Windows installation, so any sales there are really just a bonus.

    5. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Trashcan+Romeo · · Score: 1

      > Upgrade pricing set in 1995 doesn't make sense when hardware costs have fallen so dramatically.

      Windows 7 came out only three years ago and they're now charging 20% less.

      Seems to me that if Windows 8 was as nifty as advertised, they wouldn't have felt the need to mark down the price.

    6. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by nanoflower · · Score: 2

      It tells me that they don't care about making as much money off of upgrades because they have new ways to monetize their customers. What with all of the apps they are providing customers for free in the hope of them using them instead of other apps (like Gmail.) Then you add in the integrated application store and there's a potential for making a lot of money. Apple certainly does quite well with their app store so Microsoft hopes to do the same. Especially if they can provide apps for their phones, tablets and PCs from the same source (where they get a cut of every purchase.)

    7. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Trashcan+Romeo · · Score: 1

      Fair enough. But history tells us that Apple's ability to make money doing something has zero correlation with Microsoft's ability to do the same.

    8. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by blackraven14250 · · Score: 2

      1 stock in 2002 != 1 stock in 2012

      What's the market cap? What's the total shares outstanding over that time frame? Price/earnings ratio? There's a 2:1 stock split during that time frame, and quite a few dividends. Your very simplistic measure is outright wrong in its interpretation of facts. You can sit at a $30 stock price over 10 years, while doubling the number of total outstanding shares, but your measure and accompanying interpretation takes that as "they didn't grow at all".

    9. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually , stock splits are already taken care of in the chart.

      You only really have dividends, which basically means your 1 stock is worth about the same after inflation and dividends as it did 10 years ago.

      Then again, considering all the problems in the general economy, that may not be such a bad thing. eg.

      https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AGE
      https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AC
      https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AKFT

    10. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It tells me that Microsoft sees value in getting people to use the most recent version of Windows. Microsoft wants as many people to be using Win 8 as fast as they can.

      Your post is an example of Slashdot's typical attitude toward Microsoft - they're damned if they do and damned if they don't.

      If Microsoft charges $100 for an upgrade? "THOSE GREEDY BASTARDS. APPLE SELLS UPGRADES FOR $30! WINDOWS IS TOO EXPENSIVE."

      If Microsoft charges $40 for an upgrade? "LOL THEY ARE SELLING THE UPGRADES FOR CHEAP. THAT MEANS THAT WINDOWS 8 SUCKS! LOLOLOL."

    11. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Tough+Love · · Score: 2

      What does that tell me? That they are planning on selling more copies making a smaller amount per copy?

      The way Windows 8 is shaping up it seems more likely to be, fewer copies making a smaller amount per copy.

      --
      When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
    12. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're incredibly wrong about that, Not even remotely correct in your analysis or interpretation of the data.

      * Over the past 10 years (FY01 to FY11), Ballmer has presided over a revenue growth of 10.7% annualized.
      * Over the past 10 years (FY01 to FY11), Ballmer has presided over an EPS growth of 15.1% annualized.
      * In FY2011, MSFT had an operating cash flow of $27B, which represents an annualized growth of 7.2% over the past ten years.
      * Microsoft had $23.8B in net cash in 2001. Microsoft ended 2011 with $40.9B in net cash. This includes $76.2B spent on share repurchases over the past 6 years, 7 years of dividend payments (including a one-time special dividend), and several mini-acquisitions.

      http://seekingalpha.com/article/282110-microsoft-an-objective-view-of-ballmer-s-successful-leadership

    13. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      What does that tell you?

      It tells me that they figure once the programming model is unified across mobile phones, tablets, and desktop PCs, they will have an unbeatable advantage, so they are doing whatever it takes to make Windows 8 succeed. Developers who have to re-adjust to WinRT anyway to target the (still dominant) Windows 8+ desktop ecosystem are getting the ability to code for devices for free. Write once, run anywhere (that runs the WinRT API). It's a breathaking gamble that stands a high chance of succeeding.

      Remember, developers, developers, developers. That isn't a joke. Apps are the reason to want any given platform and guess who writes them?

    14. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Dracul · · Score: 1

      And for extra fun, then get it to compare with APPL over the same timeframe...

    15. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by lilfields · · Score: 1

      That's in the desktop market, the tablet market reaction to Windows 8 is unpredictable. If Windows 8 gains a foothold in the tablet market...then Microsoft doesn't care what happens in the desktop market, they have Windows 7 to cover that. Windows 7 was the fastest selling OS in history.

    16. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by lilfields · · Score: 1

      Uhm, their market cap doesn't reflect their earnings, their P/E has fallen...their stock price has been flat. Therefore the E in the P/E has increased (hint: E means earning.) Maybe before posting to a stock link...know something about stocks? Maybe? "Google's stock is flat since they introduced Android! Oh man, that means Android isn't selling well" - Your logic

    17. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by west · · Score: 1

      Microsoft Income:

      2011 $23.15B
      2010 $18.76B
      2009 $14.57B
      2008 $17.68B
      2007 $14.07B
      2006 $12.60B
      2005 $12.25B
      2004 $8.17B
      2003 $7.53B
      2002 $5.35B

      Yeah, no growth. Do even 1% of companies have a 10 year income growth record like that?

    18. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by jbengt · · Score: 2

      MS had a consistent growth in stock price until around 2000, they've been flat since then (which is not far off the performance of the generaly economy - but ideally you'd like your investments to grow faster than the economy, or else you could just stick your money in the bank). As another poster already mentioned, the chart takes into account the splits. The reason they finally starting paying dividends is because their stockholders were complaining about not getting a return on their investment. It's not like no other companies give dividends, so that's already taken into account in the stock price, also. And their market cap is right there in the chart. The fact that Apple recently overtook them in that measure is also not a good sign.

    19. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Tough+Love · · Score: 0

      That's in the desktop market, the tablet market reaction to Windows 8 is unpredictable.

      I will predict it for you. <raspberry-sound/>

      --
      When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
    20. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by zippthorne · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Doesn't google finance already factor splits into the graph, though? I'm pretty sure that $30 share price right before a 2:1 split and a $30 share price after the split actually mean that the price was $60 right before the split - the price they show is, I believe, normalized to the current price and accumulated splits.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    21. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      google takes splits into account, so that's irrelevant. DOW stock also pay dividends (and at about the same yield currently) so again that is irrelevant. The NASDAQ 100 yields a litle less (0.2 percentage points or so), hence still irrelevant when comparing price changes.

      And shares outstanding/etc also make no difference when determining growth in a share investment perspective. Sure a company could double it's number of outstanding shares and raise enough money to double its size in so doing. But as an investor nothing changes. You own half as much or something twice as big - which means you own the same size thing.

    22. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You don't know what a dividend is do you? Nor a stock split.

      Finance 101 might help people like yourself that already seemingly know it all, yet somehow miss the simplest parts of valuation.

    23. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by hairyfeet · · Score: 1

      It tells ME that you don't know jack squat about the market because other than system builders like myself (who wish they would sell a $50 HP system builders, hint hint MSFT) most folks will simply buy from an OEM, be it a little guy like me or a big OEM like Dell and frankly won't know nor care?

      MSFT doesn't raise prices on upgrades because the same guys that actually DO upgrade can pirate just as well. MSFT DID raise the price on the big OEMs last I checked, something like 25% for the current version of Windows compared to what XP was. And that is where they make their money friend, in fact i wouldn't be surprised to see MSFT lower prices for the upgrade to speed adoption, just as they did with Win 7 with the $50 Win 7 HP upgrade and the $100 Family Packs.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    24. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Prof.Phreak · · Score: 1

      What does that tell you?

      That they got high hopes for their apps business---get more folks onto Win8, more potential customers of their Win8 apps store. Heck, they probably expect to make most of their revenue from that app store going forward (e.g. all MS software will be sold that way, and once secure-boot and trusted computing makes headway, probably all Windows software will go that same route, with MS taking a small slice of every sale).

      --

      "If anything can go wrong, it will." - Murphy

    25. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Google finance adjusts for changes like splits, so that the share price shown is consistent over a long period.

    26. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by specific · · Score: 1

      There's one number that isn't bigger than last time: the amount Microsoft is charging to upgrade to the new version of Windows.

      What does that tell you?

      A more frequent release cycle in the future?

      --
      If you lend someone $20 and never see that person again, it was probably worth it.
    27. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by symbolset · · Score: 1

      Tells me they're wetting their pants.

      --
      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    28. Re:With downfalls like that, who needs successes? by Dabido · · Score: 1

      They're heading towards the price of Linux.

      --
      Sure enough, the cow costume was hanging up next to the superhero outfit and sailors uniform. (S,Spud)
  4. stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by ffflala · · Score: 5, Interesting

    ...and it has the same results. Law schools grade this way. It simply adds a very real incentive to undermine those in your group. It forces competing against one another for individual gain, often to the detriment of group progress.

    It sort of makes sense for law students whose focus will be litigation, since they are training for an adversarial environment. It also ensures that the lowest performers are consistently swept out.

    However it rests on the assumption that the lowest performers are necessarily and always detrimental to a group overall. This of course isn't true, since every single group will have a highest and a lowest performer. The other downside is of course that it promotes individual interests over group interests.

    1. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bill Gates had connections to the cream of the crap, as far as lawyers go, through his father and used them to build MS IP as well as defend against monopoly charges. What a perfect model to build your organization on! Now if only there was some way you could get the H1Bs increased....

    2. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Mostly, stack ranking makes employees focus on butt kissing. Reviews are subjective so the manager's favorites get the good ranking regardless of actual performance or value to the company.

    3. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by lennier · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Law schools grade this way. It simply adds a very real incentive to undermine those in your group.

      And that one fact explains so much about Western culture today that it's scary.

      --
      You are not a brain: http://books.google.com/books?id=2oV61CeDx-YC
    4. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Zaelath · · Score: 1

      The problem with the model (as proposed in the summary) is it's a stack per team.

      If it was grading on the curve over the entire company it makes some kinda sense but, if you think of this in terms of sport, you get the same bonus for being top performer in division 2 as you do for being the top performer in the premier league.

      A lot of teams will be fairly similar in distrubution of stars and failures, but unless you're doing a randomisation of teams quite frequently you can't be sure, and even then it would be far too late.

      You also need some savage response to deliberate undermining of co-workers to avoid winning by playing the man and not the ball....

    5. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by jo_ham · · Score: 5, Insightful

      This is the first time I've heard of stack ranking (you can tell I haven't worked in a corporate environment) and it strikes me as the most stupid, ineffective, counterproductive load of nonsense I have ever heard.

      It is instantly obvious that it's a shit idea when you realise that you are obligated to have a set number of results at each grade level, so it will fail the minute you get a team that doesn't fit that perfect theoretical curve (many more good than bad, or all bad etc).

      "Seven of you scored well enough to get the top grade, but I'm only allowed to give out 3 top grades, so I randomly picked those top three or simply chose the best ass kissers"

      The four who don't get it are now disgruntled and lose motivation, and perhaps start looking for somewhere that appreciates them.

      I can't believe this utterly retarded system got past the "throw us a crazy idea!" stage at a management meeting. Oh, management... of course. All is explained.

    6. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      To be fair, it's a "stack per team" in terms of an org, not an individual team. So this is roughly 50-100 people per group, not 5-10.

      Disclaimer: I work for Microsoft, but they don't pay me to post on Slashdot. That would be stupid.

    7. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by myrdos2 · · Score: 1

      In law school, you get all sorts of people being admitted to the program. Microsoft supposedly hires only the best and the brightest. If you're firing the same percentage of people in both situations, you're doing it wrong.

    8. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by cpu6502 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I like how one MS employee put it: They advertise for Internet Explorer's team..... they want the best 4.0 level talent on that team. Problem: Once that talent arrives only three out of ten will actually get the 4.0. The rest will get a mediocre 3.0 which makes them feel unappreciated. And the bottom two will be shown the door, even if they truly are top talent. (Probably headed off to google and chrome development.)

      --
      My AC stalker: " I personally agree with your posts most of the time, but that won't keep me from modding you troll"
    9. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Stack Ranking made sense back when it was introduced at places like General Electric. Those big Fortune 500 companies previously had no mechanism of getting rid of under-performers, and accumulated huge amounts of dead weight. (One company I worked at had dozens of "Directors" and "Senior Managers" with no direct reports and very little responsibility.)

      The funny thing is that companies like Google also use a form of stack ranking and nobody criticizes them for it. The problem at Microsoft is more incestous corporate politics, and the ranking system is just an outcome of that.

    10. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      AMD does the same thing (forced curve), and it's rolled up at each management level and adjustments are made between teams under the same director, and again under the same senior director, etc etc.

      it's pretty lame because a team of 5, awesome people will still have to have 1 grade-A employee and 1 D if not F, and maybe the rest can be 2 Bs and 2 Cs. the one that gets the D/F might be so good that in the larger group (taken as a whole) he could be a B++, but at best he'll get a mid-evel C.

      the reason is that each level of rollup involves the managers arguing for their team, and often taking turns at who gets to make their people As, or who has to "take one for the team" and make theirs the low grades. and then the higher level managers can't know everyone on a 100+ person org, so they defer to their favorite managers, make capricious decisions... it's pretty lame.

    11. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by b4dc0d3r · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The reasons behind these decisions often make sense, in theory. And as we all know, practice is not theory.

      I've worked at Fortune 150 to Fortune 10 companies. This type of ranking comes in when someone at the top is cost cutting, and wants to drive away the worst performers. Forced ranking makes it easier to tell managers to rank people, then later ordering the bottom person gone for all teams above a certain number. That way managers don't have to decide who goes, in the same way as if they were ordered to choose one person.

      When the company recovers, employee surveys (and exit interviews) cite this as the reason for leaving, and this system goes away.

      I'm not sure we can trust the specifics, but if this plan were in place 5 years or more, it points out a management who is completely unconcerned as to why people leave the company. Microsoft has raise concerns about poaching - maybe they legitimately believe other companies are just making overly high offers to get talent, rather than people leaving because of a hostile workplace.

      I think over the past few years this has gone out of style in many places, but it does take a while for the shared MBA pool of knowledge to trickle down as new graduates replace outgoing ones, or someone makes a 20 year stagnant career in the same position, refusing to change their ways.

      Which is one reason large companies push career development. If you don't aspire to get a promotion, you are going to eventually get fired - this is the message. Pushing people to move around voluntarily means you can count on at least a few new opinions introduced, But when you push the great architect into a mediocre middle manager, you've hurt the company twice - losing the architect and gaining bad middle management.

      Good ideas always have a downside, and good management knows when to recognize when the cons outweigh the pros. Half of the managers are at or below average, so I wouldn't expect much more than following orders.

    12. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Billly+Gates · · Score: 1

      But the catch is unlike law school grads, no employee would want to work in that environment. Well at least a good employee knows he can get hired elsewhere and not fear of being fired every day.

      I used to work minimum wage jobs that did this and it was a great motivator to finish my education so I would not have to put up with that again. People have student loans to pay off, mortgages, kids, wives, and their livelihood.

      I do not like lower level performers but just the threat of termination every day if you don't sweat and fear for your job fucks you up even if you are not hte lowest performer. Morale goes down and so does everyones' productivity in the process.

    13. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The UK Civil Service has a similar setup. All it does is encourage the majority of staff to be lazy or, at best, apathetic towards their role. Given you are peer reviewed against your colleagues and not against the whole organisation, if you work in a department with a lot of very good people you are penalised for it because it is almost impossible to do anything other than "satisfactory". If you worked in a weaker area (which in a lot of cases wouldn't stretch you) then you can fly through with higher grades. Higher grades == more money == better pension == better promotion prospects. At the very least, reviews should take place organisation wide (given the civil service is bent on "generalists", everyone should be able to do anyone else's job, right?). And yes, there are departments with large numbers of skilled workers that justify fair pay in the civil service, despite what the media may lead you to believe.

    14. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by bobstreo · · Score: 1

      I believe Mike Judge said it best:

      Peter Gibbons: The thing is, Bob, it's not that I'm lazy, it's that I just don't care.
      Bob Porter: Don't... don't care?
      Peter Gibbons: It's a problem of motivation, all right? Now if I work my ass off and Initech ships a few extra units, I don't see another dime, so where's the motivation? And here's something else, Bob: I have eight different bosses right now.
      Bob Slydell: I beg your pardon?
      Peter Gibbons: Eight bosses.
      Bob Slydell: Eight?
      Peter Gibbons: Eight, Bob. So that means that when I make a mistake, I have eight different people coming by to tell me about it. That's my only real motivation is not to be hassled, that and the fear of losing my job. But you know, Bob, that will only make someone work just hard enough not to get fired.

    15. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Judging by MSIE, I'd say they don't have very many '4's' working for them.

    16. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Billly+Gates · · Score: 1

      In law school, you get all sorts of people being admitted to the program. Microsoft supposedly hires only the best and the brightest. If you're firing the same percentage of people in both situations, you're doing it wrong.

      Well anyone worth their salt goes to many sites like , googles and reads articles like this on slashdot before taking a job offer. If they are the best and brightest they would RUN! Every employer wants only the best. But they can't possible get all the best unless they pay 40% above market value, and kiss ass to the employees and do crazy things and have tremendous growth and so on.

      The people desperate for the job end up working at MS. 10 years ago I would believe you but today? Why would the best and brightest want to work there?

    17. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by gnasher719 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Now imagine the lowest two of your ten people team just left. Who would you want as replacement? Certainly not anybody who is better than you at their job.

    18. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by viperidaenz · · Score: 1

      It wouldn't be so bad if it was applied to a very large group. Its how some school systems give out grades. If its applied to a small team then helping your team mate is detrimental to your own grade. If you help your class mate it will increase your class grade as a whole, increasing the ranking of your school, increasing the number of high grades allocated to your school. In the school system I've been a student of it seemed to work. The only competition then is between schools and there is a minor incentive to helping fellow class/school mates.

    19. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't see how it makes any more sense for the situation you described. If you gave people reviews based purely on merit then the dead weight would still be identified.

    20. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by x3CDA84B · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Exactly. It's as if MS' management are deliberately trying to prevent anyone from actually having an all-star team. They're also completely failing to understand that psychologically, for most people rewarding top performers will produce better results than punishing low performers, even though if you look at it as a math equation, they can be identical.

      This stupid way of managing people is one of the main reasons I would never in a million years work at Microsoft, or other companies that use similar methods (Amazon, etc.).

    21. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Dunbal · · Score: 2

      That way managers don't have to decide

      Except, isn't that what managers are paid to do? It's like the judge who says "I have no choice". Why bother even having a judge in that case.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    22. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by dbIII · · Score: 1

      It also frequently assumes visability = performance. Thus the guy always fighting fires can be seen to have more "successes" than somebody building on a solid design without drama.
      I'm very happy I'm in a small enough place where I don't have to put up with such bullshit

    23. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by NotSanguine · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Exactly. It's as if MS' management are deliberately trying to prevent anyone from actually having an all-star team. They're also completely failing to understand that psychologically, for most people rewarding top performers will produce better results than punishing low performers, even though if you look at it as a math equation, they can be identical.

      This stupid way of managing people is one of the main reasons I would never in a million years work at Microsoft, or other companies that use similar methods (Amazon, etc.).

      I've been reading these critiques of "stack ranking" and, as a former MS employee, I understand why MS does "stack ranking" even though it's ultimately detrimental to the organization. Microsoft is a sales focused organization, not a technology focused one. When managing sales people, you want to keep the highest performers happy (and selling as much as possible). Nothing motivates a salesman more than knowing that if they don't produce, out the door they go.

      Since Microsoft has always been run by salespeople (Billy G. included and Ballmer is the quintessential salesjerk), it makes sense that they should use sales management techniques within the organization. the problem, of course, is that just because you're not one of the top developers on a dev team, it doesn't mean that you suck. It means that you have colleagues that you can learn from and improve your skills -- potentially making a good developer a great developer.

      Stack ranking is a piss-poor way to evaluate development groups. It has also created an atmosphere at MS where personal relationships are more important than performance. It has also created an environment where being seen as being involved in "the next big thing(TM)" causes employees to ride the waves of high-profile projects and then jump ship when their visibility is reduced. I saw so many good ideas die while I was at MS just because something newer and shinier appeared and those upwardly mobile types just dropped the ball without looking back. It was kind of sad to watch, actually.

      --
      No, no, you're not thinking; you're just being logical. --Niels Bohr
    24. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Tough+Love · · Score: 1

      I like how one MS employee put it: They advertise for Internet Explorer's team..... they want the best 4.0 level talent on that team. Problem: Once that talent arrives only three out of ten will actually get the 4.0. The rest will get a mediocre 3.0 which makes them feel unappreciated. And the bottom two will be shown the door, even if they truly are top talent. (Probably headed off to google and chrome development.)

      Sadly, Google's own "calibration" system is basically a carbon copy of Microsoft's. I'd suggest some other destination.

      --
      When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
    25. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Mr.+Shotgun · · Score: 2

      Now imagine the lowest two of your ten people team just left. Who would you want as replacement? Certainly not anybody who is better than you at their job.

      Spot on, and what makes it even better is the ramp up time for the 2 new and less skilled hires ensures that they will be mediocre in comparison to the established team. Therefor earning them low marks in the next review and booting them out the door taking their years salary and training overhead with them. Looking at it's logical conclusion there would be a high turnover rate in the team under this stack ranking system leaving that money to walk out the door with no return on investment and maybe a bad rep from the recently fired.

      --
      Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the (supposed) good of its victims may be the most oppressive
    26. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Tough+Love · · Score: 2

      Seems to me, this whole misbegotten idea was invented at GE. Let's see how that worked out for them.

      --
      When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
    27. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by rtb61 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I find the whole process of stack racking fascinating in a Machiavellian point of way. It really points to incompetent management who have no idea how to motivate staff, how to create effective productive teams and of course how to create a healthy working environment. Basically it screams we have no idea what we are doing so we are going to introduce dog eat dog, into the work environment and let itself sort itself out and blame everything on middle management and take credit for any success.

      I would look at stack racking in employee evaluation as a solid indication that a company has psychopathic corporate executives in charge. They enjoy the carnage that results, they revel in the benefits of favouritism, include gifts and sexual favours, the enjoy the ego boost of being able to destroy more competent people and they thrive in the hostile environment created. Insane people driving insanity in order to make themselves appear normal. This certainly explain a lot about M$'s failures in new product lines. No one willing to take risks, top to bottom favouritism and ensure the job permanence of current graders. A top to bottom scheme to ensure the survival of Ballmer and nothing else.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    28. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by marcosdumay · · Score: 1

      Forced ranking makes it easier to tell managers to rank people, then later ordering the bottom person gone for all teams above a certain number.

      Too bad for that team entirely formed of stars, that solves every problem that thouches them (and yeah, they have plenty of enemies because of that). But it's great news for those 3 or 4 teams formed of people that had nowhere else to go because no other team wants to work with them. One, and only one person will be fired from each.

    29. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by ppanon · · Score: 2

      Exactly. Stack ranking is pretty similar to how Jimmy Pattison car dealerships used to (and may still) work for car sales - the lowest performing salesman each month gets let go and someone new is hired. It's effective if you're dealing with unskilled labour and there's a huge supply of the labour you're looking for.

      However if you're dealing with a labour force where you claim there's a shortage of skilled workers and you're trying to hire the cream of the crop, telling the majority of those workers they're marginal and telling one of them they suck (even if they may still be part of the top of their field) is bad for morale and retention. If you're trying to hire the top tier and retain them then that's not the way to do it. In the end, the result is that the average replacement hire is at least as likely to perform as badly, but you also need to train them in the corporate culture and you've spent a lot of money on the hiring/firing process. It's good empire building for clueless HR managers who get to have more reports to deal with the churn, but in the long term it's destructive to the competitiveness of the company.

      A lot of companies have deadwood, and there's a need to have merit-based processes to deal with that, but stack ranking is like grading on the bell curve. It can help compensate a little for the effects of bad teaching/management, but it's not necessarily a great indicator of competency/desirability. However properly evaluating how your employees are performing, not just within their small group but relative to the company or the industry as a whole, is bloody hard when your worldwide headcount is nearly 100,000 because processes that work well for smaller companies just don't scale up to that size. Punting on that problem by using a skewed bell curve on a sample size of 10 has to cause more problems than it solves, and whoever thought of that one should be required to take remedial stats for social scientists before they're ever allowed to come close to HR policy-making authority again.

      On the gripping hand, Microsoft apparently has an attempt at a merit-based system with a transparent enough process (even if it is tragically flawed and easily manipulated) that employees can critique its flaws. How many companies don't have even that much and just promote based on networking and nepotism?

      --
      Laissez lire, et laissez danser; ces deux amusements ne feront jamais de mal au monde. - Voltaire
    30. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by bertok · · Score: 4, Insightful

      This kind of stupid shit happens because management is not a science!

      Just like how before chemistry we had alchemy, and before medicine we had blood letting, you're seeing the pre-scientific version of management. It shouldn't be surprising that it's a joke.

      I've read a bunch of management books and the whole time I was screaming "CITATION NEEDED" inside my head. They're full of unscientific but plausible sounding mumbo-jumbo, and ridden with weasel words. No numbers. No studies. No control experiments to demonstrate an improvement relative to the existing gold standard. Probably because there aren't any standards to begin with.

      Take stack ranking for example: how would you even begin to measure the effectiveness of such as technique, relative to other employee review systems? What units would you use? How would you run this experiment? I bet you can't answer this. I bet the person who came up with stack ranking can't answer it either.

    31. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My employer did something similar for a while, and there's a huge error in the thinking that leads to doing it. They assume the there's a uniform distribution of good and bad people throughout the organization. So If you take the top of any team or group and compare them, you get similar performers, and if you take the bottom, you get similar performers. It's more likely that good people will accumulate other good people around them, and palm off the bad ones on someone else. We had teams of not-very-bright people working on stuff that they claimed was the best thing since slice bread but was provably impossible. Any reasonable ranking system would have put the lot of them at the bottom, and some other high performing groups at the top. Instead they force a ranking in each group so that in a really great group, a really high performer might get stuck on the bottom. (none of this is sour grapes-- I did spectacularly well when they were doing this, despite often being more than a bit of a troublemaker).

    32. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Quote from my boss' boss last week: I don't want to make a priority call, though I can if I have to.

      Amusingly, this was in response to a direct request for a priority call, as two parallel projects are competing for attention and resources from the same teams.

    33. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by timeOday · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Mostly, stack ranking makes employees focus on butt kissing. Reviews are subjective so the manager's favorites get the good ranking regardless of actual performance or value to the compan

      That's a fair restatement of the article, sure. But nothing you said, and nothing the article said, explains why stacked ranking promotes butt-kissing any more than any other performance review system. The only way to avoid butt-kissing is to dispense with pay-for-performance altogether, since that way there's no incentive, either to kiss butts, nor to do anything else.

      The fact is ALL companies do stacked ranking - you can find your "score" on your paycheck. There's no avoiding this (again, other than paying everybody the same amount). So the only question is how oblique do you want to be about it?

    34. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by mabhatter654 · · Score: 1

      so they pull the "4s" from other groups, and show two of them the door for no real reason. Getting a 4 on the new team is meaningless because the guy on the last team who was also a 4 and moved with you got a 2, and you know it wasn't for performance. Way to get people on the team!

      So the only benefit is to know you can get a 3 consistently, and be likeable enough to keep it. They will always bring in "new kids" who will get hazed straight to the bottom... and then blame that on education.

      IBM feels the same way. I deal with lots of IBMers because my company is an "IBM shop" and the morale over there is much the same. Any of the old timers that used to be first with the right support answers are all just trying to keep their heads while being shuffled from department to department. It's a terrible way to live if you're not a social "butterfly" and more than a little psychopathic.

    35. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by mabhatter654 · · Score: 1

      but what happens is when you have a team of all 4s from somewhere else, now you're kicking several of them to 2s for no apparent reason... Sorry, you're the shortest giant. So unless you are REALLY sure you are going to make the top rung, you jump as fast as you possibly can. You step on the guy beside you first, and often for every little point.

      Meanwhile the "bread and butter" developers that make a team flow smoothly and get stuff shipped get hacked and slashed from the politics of the fast movers. So they either drift to the quiet divisions and stay out of the way, or they leave the company. Its easier to "trade down" as long as you can stay a 3, right. Those groups react to anybody rocking the boat too much so they pay very extra safe.

    36. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by yuhong · · Score: 1

      Yea, that tells a lot about what it was originally designed for.

    37. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by tlhIngan · · Score: 2

      I've been reading these critiques of "stack ranking" and, as a former MS employee, I understand why MS does "stack ranking" even though it's ultimately detrimental to the organization. Microsoft is a sales focused organization, not a technology focused one. When managing sales people, you want to keep the highest performers happy (and selling as much as possible). Nothing motivates a salesman more than knowing that if they don't produce, out the door they go.

      Since Microsoft has always been run by salespeople (Billy G. included and Ballmer is the quintessential salesjerk), it makes sense that they should use sales management techniques within the organization. the problem, of course, is that just because you're not one of the top developers on a dev team, it doesn't mean that you suck. It means that you have colleagues that you can learn from and improve your skills -- potentially making a good developer a great developer.

      True, but the big reason why it sucks is obvious. When you have a group of more than 1 person, there will ALWAYS be a better performer in the group. Even if you took two identical people, with identical training, depending on how you evaluate, one of them will perform better than the other. Of course, change how you evaluate, and you'll find the roles reversed.

      In every group, there will always be a top performer, and a lousy performer. The issue is that lousy performer may be the top performer in another gorup, or change the criteria by some insignificant thing and the rankings can easily change.

      Heck, take 10 groups of 10 people, and take the top performer of each to form anew group. Well, one of the top performers will be on the failing edge.

      Or shuffle the tasks around and the top performer on Windows might become toe lousiest performer on Office, and switch again and the mediocre guy on Office might be the top guy on Xbox.

      It's a great way to lose top talent - just because in the current evaluation they're the worst of the group. Hell, you might be dismissing someone you could objectively measure (on say, 1-100) 99.9999999999 vs. 99.9999999998.

    38. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "The four who don't get it are now disgruntled and lose motivation, and perhaps start looking for somewhere that appreciates them."

      Except that when they move to another team, they are reserved for the lowest slots because the manager does not want to lose the experienced guys, or because the people in the team fear for their score and treat the new guys in a hostile way. It's a bad way to run a software business.

    39. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by hawk · · Score: 3, Informative

      Nah, there's worse.

      remember Hawkins' Second Law: There is no lower bound to human intelligence.

      I had a student a ew years ago who worked for a company that overdosed on 80/20. They ranked their customers by sales volume, and informed the bottom 20% that they could take their business elsewherere, as their orders would no longer be accepted.

      Uhm, now how do you get new customers, since their starting volume will be below your threshold. And of your, uh, surviving customers, doesnt 80/20 still apply? So dump some more?

      I wish I was making this up, but i spent a lot of time with this student.

      hawk

    40. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by mikestew · · Score: 1

      But the catch is unlike law school grads, no employee would want to work in that environment. Well at least a good employee knows he can get hired elsewhere and not fear of being fired every day.

      Except that when I went to explain to new hires how the stack ranking worked, more than one stated that HR said that Microsoft didn't do stack ranking. Well surprise, surprise "kid who turned down an offer at Google". Granted, this was seven or eight years ago, so maybe the HR department is more honest about it now.

    41. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Direct managers actually hate stack ranking, because 1) they are the ones having to play the game of "kick the other guy down to promote your own", and 2) they have to explain people why they have an "underperformed" rating when they actually worked quite well in the review period, just not as well as someone else on the team.

    42. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 2

      Sadly, Google's own "calibration" system is basically a carbon copy of Microsoft's. I'd suggest some other destination.

      It seems pretty common for people to jump ship several times, in a round robin fashion. So it's MS -> Google -> Facebook -> MS -> .... For some reason, it's often easier to get a raise that way (when you "come back") then by actually working your way through.

    43. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      AMD does the same thing (forced curve), and it's rolled up at each management level and adjustments are made between teams under the same director, and again under the same senior director, etc etc. the reason is that each level of rollup involves the managers arguing for their team, and often taking turns at who gets to make their people As, or who has to "take one for the team" and make theirs the low grades. and then the higher level managers can't know everyone on a 100+ person org, so they defer to their favorite managers, make capricious decisions... it's pretty lame.

      Same exact thing at MS.

    44. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 2

      if this plan were in place 5 years or more

      Stack ranking has been practiced at MS for almost 10 years now.

    45. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by jo_ham · · Score: 2

      I used to run a small but profitable business and we thrived on those customers - the ones treated like crap by the big boys because they were deemed too much hassle or inconvenient because their purchasing power was low, or simply didn't need much. When you start to feel like you're a burden on the company you're buying from, such that they give off the impression that they're doing you a favour because you're "hardly worth the effort of putting out an invoice for such small numbers" then you quickly start looking for other options.

      I've seen it first hand - thousands and thousands of pounds of lost business, that we happily welcomed onto our books.

    46. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by gnalre · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There is another reason why such a system suck. It ignores the fundamentals of team dynamics in a development environment. In a team you have innovators, those guys who are always coming up with the new ideas. You also have the consolidators, those guys who do the dull stuff, like maintaining legacy code, documentation. If you have a team full of innovators they will always be looking at the next great thing and want to work on maintaining the present work. If you have a team of consolidators, you will get a static stale development team. The right mix is a combination of both.

      One of the problem with stack is system is it emphasises one side over the other, usually the innovators, who tend to shout loudest anyway, and ignore the guys in the background who provide the support to those guys.

      I firmly believe that there is no individual merit system that cannot be gamed and is not counter-productive to a team. If you wish to implement a merit system, rate the team, not the individuals. In the end a badly performing team will force out the poor performers themselves if there promotion/raises are based on the teams performance.

      --
      Choose your allies carefully, it is highly unlikely you will be held accountable for the actions of your enemies
    47. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by eennaarbrak · · Score: 2

      The thing I find most interesting about stack ranking is, even if the theory is sound (it isn't, but let's run with it), it's self-refuting. Let's say all companies decide to stack rank. Then, at the end of the year, 10% of the worse performers are automatically fired. In order to replace them, you have to hire from the bunch of work seeking individuals in the market - which are the 10% under performers of other companies that have just been fired.

      All you are achieving is to exchange under performers. And now you have under performers that need to be trained up and integrated into your company from scratch.

      The theory of stack ranking only makes sense if you are the only one doing it. The more companies adopt it, the more costly it becomes for everyone.

    48. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I attended high school in Sweden. They also used stack ranking for grading. Having experienced the consequences (and also having experienced some pretty bad discrimination based on my sex, with teachers openly admitting in front of the whole class that "I deserved a better grade but that they decided to give my grade to a woman because they *needed it more than I did*", having my GPA lowered due to my sex, having to have 20 % higher GPA than women, in order to be able to apply for the same course at university etc.) I chose to leave the country and work as an independent contractor instead of becoming an all out permanent corporate drone. This way, I managed to reduce the negative impact from having psychopath managers, thereby improving my quality of life.

    49. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by wanax · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Having read "The Smartest Guys in the Room" about the Enron debacle, I think a large part of the Enron collapse story was essentially a fallout of stack ranking -- a form of which they employed -- the remarkable thing, though, was that Skilling in particular and the other top managers were such libertarian wackos that they thought fostering internal competition within teams and between business divisions was a good thing. And then they combined this with a system where bonuses were paid based on deal sizes based on mark-to-market accounting, so the originator got a bonus and there was virtually no monetary incentive to actually service the back-end of the contract (and thus actually get paid and maintain a revenue stream.. but that's a different story).

      Some of the behaviors that came out of that culture are hard to believe..
      -The trading desks in different divisions taking opposite sides of the same position with leverage, guaranteeing the company loss (but not the division that won the trade)
      -New MBAs were hired all the time, but not initially assigned to a team. They essentially had to shop themselves around, and were more or less allowed to transfer between teams at any time early in the process. Near the end this led, essentially, to something like 20% of the Enron workforce being shuffled around from team to team near evaluation time to take the 'bad slots' in the evaluation.
      -They set up an entire subsidiary, Enron Energy Services, that would only be financially viable in the long term if deregulation in California succeeded, and became a national model... while having a division who's entire performance/bonus criteria was dependent on how badly they could exploit loopholes in the deregulation to make a short term profit from trading.

      I think the bottom line is that if you let this type of Machiavellian culture take hold, it essentially means that you don't have a functional leader -- they've abrogated there responsibilities to the political abilities of their subordinates. If you look at Northern Italy and the northern part Holy Roman Empire, the former had no leader, de facto or de jure, while the latter had one de jure. Neither of those areas managed to centralize authority until 1860 and 1870 respectively, about 200 years after England, France and Austria managed to do so from more or less the same feudal starting point (they had leaders that were willing to intervene decisively in baronial disputes).

    50. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Uh, lying to candidates is as much fraud as lying to customers. You're saying Microsoft HR is run by criminals?

    51. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by mikestew · · Score: 1

      You're assuming the alleged statement was made while the new hires were still candidates.

    52. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Rinikusu · · Score: 1

      ...Sounds like Austrian Economics, oddly enough.

      --
      If you were me, you'd be good lookin'. - six string samurai
    53. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Who would you want as replacement?

      The person with a red shirt.

    54. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      the remarkable thing, though, was that Skilling in particular and the other top managers were such libertarian wackos that they thought fostering internal competition within teams and between business divisions was a good thing.

      Yikes. As a left libertarian, I gotta say that I can totally see that happening if you have the kind of guy who calls himself a "libertarian" in the same way that a teenager who listens to punk and skateboards where there are "No Skateboarding" signs calls himself an "anarchist." The phrase "that guy knows just enough to be dangerous" seems apropos.
        Properly running a libertarian company would involve breaking the whole thing up into separate entities on the market, which would allow pricing information to flow between them and thus negate calculation problems, and the removal of vertical hierarchy which leads to agency and information problems. Not that kind of crazy-ass shit. But I suppose that's what you get when people direct their lives around half-understood secondhand retellings of ideas that have been filtered through bullshit-heavy AM radio jackasses.

    55. Re:stack ranking sounds like the strict curve by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Top post. It's too bad most people are oblivious to the detrimental effects of psychopaths. Their hope is to stay below the radar, to everyone's detriment.

      Keyword: soiling

  5. It's really obvious by WiiVault · · Score: 4, Insightful

    MS has always hired some of the best and brightest, but for years the output has been unable to match. So if you have top people, but you can't produce stuff people want than what is the issue? Management. Duh. I know, and I'm sure many others do too plenty of smart people in the biz. The difference between the Apple, Google, and MS guys is slim at best. But what gets produced is obviously not favorable to MS in quality or innovation. Innovation to Balmer seems too "out of box" and scary to be worth it, so instead he comes late to every. single. party. in the last 10 years.

    1. Re:It's really obvious by UnknowingFool · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Steve Jobs led Apple in the direction he wanted. People can disagree with that direction but it was clear who was in charge. Ballmer manages MS so that it doesn't lose their monopolies. That's the big difference I see. If Jobs was in charge, I don't think the Vista Ready/Compatible disaster would have happened. The crux of it was a lower level exec made a decision to reverse course on key hardware requirements that left many consumers with PCs that were not really fully Vista capable but it wasn't clear to consumers what that meant. Ballmer just let it happen instead of stepping on someone's toes.

      --
      Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
    2. Re:It's really obvious by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Exactly. MS was late to the internet, and now they're late to mobile. They're followers, not leaders.

    3. Re:It's really obvious by Princeofcups · · Score: 2

      MS has always hired some of the best and brightest, but for years the output has been unable to match. So if you have top people, but you can't produce stuff people want than what is the issue? Management. Duh. I know, and I'm sure many others do too plenty of smart people in the biz. The difference between the Apple, Google, and MS guys is slim at best. But what gets produced is obviously not favorable to MS in quality or innovation. Innovation to Balmer seems too "out of box" and scary to be worth it, so instead he comes late to every. single. party. in the last 10 years.

      That's true, as did Gates for 20 years before that. Microsoft NEVER innovated, never risked, always claimed that emerging technology was a fad and whatever market they already dominated was the only way to go. They let other companies develop technologies, and when the times is right, Microsoft swoops in and buys them out, and rebrands the products as their own. The difference is that Gates was good at this form of evil. Ballmer not so much.

      --
      The only thing worse than a Democrat is a Republican.
    4. Re:It's really obvious by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      also in the culture of "patent it and sue everybody else" you risk your opponents patenting a truly crucial piece of tech.

    5. Re:It's really obvious by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Didn't Jobs release 8, 9 and and X and castigate his employees because he did not like some aspects?
      Time Machine replaced something that had previously been the best thing ever.

    6. Re:It's really obvious by UnknowingFool · · Score: 1

      I don't know your version of history but my version says that Jobs came back when Apple was at it's lowest point. He didn't lead them there as he had been gone a decade or so but he led them out of it.

      If Jobs was in charge, the Vista Ready/Compatible disaster would have just been blamed on the user. Just as all of Apple's failings have been.

      From what I know about Jobs, that wouldn't have been the outcome. Jobs was obsessed with details; changing the direction of key hardware would not have escaped his attention. Apple is also known for dropping hardware support when it suited them. It took them 5 years and 2 versions of OS X to move off PPC but they did it. They wouldn't have blinked if the decision would have left Intel with millions of unsold chipsets.

      --
      Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
    7. Re:It's really obvious by slew · · Score: 1

      ...If Jobs was in charge, I don't think the Vista Ready/Compatible disaster would have happened. The crux of it was a lower level exec made a decision to reverse course on key hardware requirements that left many consumers with PCs that were not really fully Vista capable but it wasn't clear to consumers what that meant. Ballmer just let it happen instead of stepping on someone's toes.

      I'm not sure this is the best example. It seems to me (anyhow) that this "someones" toes were Intel. Basically Intel wanted PC sold w/ integrated graphics to be Vista Ready. Microsoft caved. I doubt this call was made at some low-level exec, but even if it were, I'm sure that Intel would have pull out all the stops to make this happen, maybe including throwing chairs at whoever happened to be the CEO...

      Maybe Jobs would have said no, but I'm sure the consequences would be that Vista would have had to be delayed yet another year... (I've heard that OEMs pretty much threatened to boycott Vista and ship XP another year if microsoft obsoleted the computers they had in the pipeline)...

    8. Re:It's really obvious by UnknowingFool · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure this is the best example. It seems to me (anyhow) that this "someones" toes were Intel. Basically Intel wanted PC sold w/ integrated graphics to be Vista Ready. Microsoft caved. I doubt this call was made at some low-level exec, but even if it were, I'm sure that Intel would have pull out all the stops to make this happen, maybe including throwing chairs at whoever happened to be the CEO...

      The details of this was released in the Vista capable lawsuit via emails. A decision was made to reverse course but wasn't communicated fully even within MS what that meant. Ballmer was aware of the decision but didn't do anything about it or chime in. It wasn't until after launch when a MS VP made the observation that his new computer was now a $2000 email machine that the full scope of the problem emerged. The most critical and vocal responses were from Allchin and Allard. It was made clear that they were not involved with making the decision. What struck me as weak was Ballmer's response. He wasn't angry or critical or take any real action.

      Of course we can speculate what Jobs would have done. However, it's a different company than Apple but Apple isn't above obsoleting hardware when it suits them.

      Maybe Jobs would have said no, but I'm sure the consequences would be that Vista would have had to be delayed yet another year... (I've heard that OEMs pretty much threatened to boycott Vista and ship XP another year if microsoft obsoleted the computers they had in the pipeline)...

      Yes and No. The larger OEMs like HP had spent a considerable amount of time trying to meet the original requirements. The change didn't happen till very late and HP was pissed. It meant that smaller OEMs could sell "Vista" machines at a much lower price because they could use the Intel 915 chipset when HP had spent more money designing their low-end machines around the Intel 945 line.

      --
      Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
    9. Re:It's really obvious by aristotle-dude · · Score: 1

      Steve Jobs wasn't as successful with Apple as many would like to believe. Remember, Apple was skirting on bankruptcy, and it was MS that bailed them out. MS viewed Apple the way that Intel views AMD. Apple has been pushing the Mac desktop for almost 30 years and they are still a lot closer to the market share of desktop Linux than they are to Windows.

      What planet/universe are you on? Microsoft's investment was the result of an out of court lawsuit settlement negotiated by Jobs when he came back to Apple. He had been gone for a decade before he came back. That investment was dwarfed by the cash hoard Apple had at the time. Apple was definitely in trouble but the cash infusion by itself would not have saved Apple. Its importance was symbolic as it was a seen as a vote of confidence in Apple's future. Microsoft also agreed to develop Microsoft Microsoft Office for five years and continue supporting Internet Explorer on the Mac OS platform. Those moved brought back confidence to the third party developer community and user community but the money itself was nothing and they were not doing it out of the goodness of their heart. Microsoft feared that they would be broken up by the DOJ if Apple failed and they wanted to end the lawsuit over the stolen Quicktime codec code.

      Apple started to become profitable again when the released products like the iMac, Powermac G3 tower and eventually the Powermac G4 towers and all of those products came about after Steve Jobs came back to Apple.

      --
      Jesus was a compassionate social conservative who called individuals to sin no more.
  6. Not a new idea.. by gallondr00nk · · Score: 4, Funny

    They had very similar performance reviews at Enron

    1. Re:Not a new idea.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Troll

      Hey, I was enjoying a mai tai until I read your remark.

      How about having more respect for the dead ?

                                                                                                              - Ken Lay

    2. Re:Not a new idea.. by Jimbookis · · Score: 1

      It sounds like a sports competition such as the 100m sprint at the Olympics. All the competitors are, on a world scale, fantastic athletes and the best each country has to offer at the time. But at the end of the race if you aren't in the top three you're a turd.

    3. Re:Not a new idea.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Except it's nothing like that. Getting into the top three in the Olympics is the entire point. It's why they train day after day after day. If you come in fourth or twenty-third the world may think you are a turd, but to your home country, you are probably still the best they have at that sport and #1 in their book - you may even still get endorsement deals. Those guys you are competing against? They are your actual competition!

      In MS's case, those guys you are competing against are your teammates! It would be like a volleyball team ranking themselves against themselves rather than against opposing teams. And not be judged by their merits.

    4. Re:Not a new idea.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As far as I know, most big tech companies do it this way. The last three I've been at do. If your team is small, you're particularly screwed, of course. In our case (with less than a dozen people) you can have something like 1 highest excelling review, one very lowest (and someone has to be that person, no matter what), a couple at next to lowest, and then the rest in the "normal" range. Even if you ALL exceed the corporate standards by a fucking MILE, at least ONE of you has to be the worst-reviewed employee and only get a 1 out of 5.

    5. Re:Not a new idea.. by geoffaus · · Score: 1

      I could see my company implementing this sort of BS - here's hoping they dont hear about it!

      --
      As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a reference to Godwin's Law approaches 1
  7. We had something like this. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    We had something like this where I worked for a couple of years. It's gone now (at least, nobody talks about it), everyone hated it from the middle managers on down. It was based on the "lifeboat", which they mention briefly in the article. The term I got from the article "learned helplessness" is so perfect I wished I'd known it when this was going on.

    The first year they ranked everyone in the same "grade" together. If your manager tried to do what HR said and rank people then there would be a few other managers who said everyone on their team was perfect, and therefore you'd get pushed to the bottom of the list for raises. Also, unpopular or inexperienced managers would get their entire team screwed.

    The second year it was just among members of your team but the managers HAD to have some percentage who sucked (who would get the ranking you were normally given before you got fired). It didn't matter if that person was productive or not... their thinking was every team must have a slacker who can be fired. Small teams were the worst off here.

    HR sucks everywhere.

  8. What I don't understand by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I believe the problems with stack ranking are true although I don't think Microsoft had a decade of only insuccesses.
    But what I don't understand is why such an article appeared on Vanity Fair?
    I mean: it's not like Conde Nast don't have other magazines where I wouldn't be surprised to see such an article...

    1. Re:What I don't understand by symbolset · · Score: 1

      This is an interesting point that deserves more attention. Where are the trade and industry press? Why Vanity Fair?

      --
      Help stamp out iliturcy.
  9. Gates by hey · · Score: 1

    Sounds like Gates rejecting the eReader (because it didn't look like Windows) didn't help things either.

    1. Re:Gates by 91degrees · · Score: 1

      Maybe. Although I'm a little more inclined to accept Bill Gates' judgement. He has at least demonstrated considerable business savvy in the past. It could be that he felt that the product wouldn't have been successful at the time. And he might be right.

  10. Cult by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Every MS employee i have had contact with came off as someone in a cult.

    1. Re:Cult by Stolovaya · · Score: 1

      You have not met many employees then.

  11. How Time Was Spent On MS teams That I Worked On by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    As a former Microsoft exec, my observation was that most blue badges above level 62 spent 30% of their time on work and 70% of their time maneuvering

    1. Re:How Time Was Spent On MS teams That I Worked On by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For those not aware - "blue badge" roughly translates to "full time, exempt professional employee".

    2. Re:How Time Was Spent On MS teams That I Worked On by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As a former Microsoft exec, my observation was that most blue badges above level 62 spent 30% of their time on work and 70% of their time maneuvering

      As a former level 61, I couldn't agree more.

    3. Re:How Time Was Spent On MS teams That I Worked On by Tough+Love · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You really think they spend as much as 30% of their time working?

      --
      When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
    4. Re:How Time Was Spent On MS teams That I Worked On by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think the combination of politics and bureaucracy is probably bad in most any Fortune 500 company, i.e. one that has more than about 6 levels between the CEO and the individual contributor. The scale of these places require many of their processes (including employee evaluation/compensation/promotion) to be run according to a formal set of rules, which can and will be gamed and abused.

      The exceptions might be some companies in hypergrowth with respect to market share and/or stock price, such as Microsoft in the '90s and Google from 2000-2010.

  12. stick to your knitting by mister_dave · · Score: 2

    Also discussed is the company's loyalty to Windows and Office, which induced a myopia that repeatedly kept Microsoft from jumping on emerging technologies like e-readers and other technology that was effective for consumers.

    They'd be foolish not to be loyal to windows and office. Those were/are two fabulously successful products.

    I think there is a strong case for MS ignoring any options for broadening their product range, and just focussing on their existing winners.

    1. Re:stick to your knitting by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      DEC thought the exact same way. Either change with the times or die, those are the only options on a long enough timescale.

    2. Re:stick to your knitting by b4dc0d3r · · Score: 2

      Like the buggy whip makers? Sure, stick with your strengths. But the consumer is fickle, and when they decide to move on you either give them something to move on to, or stagnate. From the article, Microsoft has repeatedly rejected any opportunity which might lead them to having a strength other than Windows and Office.

      I almost mentioned their effort with XBox, but my dashboard is upgraded to have a billion ads, Bing search, Windows Media. It's a crapfest, and it's bringing the XBox closer to the core Windows strengths, rather than giving gamers something useful. The "media center" idea, starting with XP media center edition, is either unwanted by consumers, or badly botched by Microsoft. "All your media in one place", including DVR and streaming, is a solved problem. But MS can't make it stick, and instead just piles on more Windows integration.

    3. Re:stick to your knitting by Exrio · · Score: 1

      Office is on the way out because everything is becoming Web2.0 or even Web3.0-ized, negating the need for any manually composed document as inter-organization (as well as intra-organization) data passing no longer targets directly other humans but servers that automatically parse and process it. Windows is on the way out because the web is platform agnostic. Document professionals (for those things that still have to be done in document format such as instruction booklets) don't use Office, and most often don't use Windows either.

    4. Re:stick to your knitting by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >I think there is a strong case for MS ignoring any options for broadening their product range, and just focussing on their existing winners.

      Other than an awful ribbon and a different version number, please elaborate on the key "features" that Microsoft added after Office 2003 - ie. how they "focussed" on their winners? The fact that I can't see any noticeable difference between the two (except the stupid ribbon that I still haven't warmed to) speaks volumes.

      Microsoft f**** up - pure and simple. They are on shaky ground and the tech world knows it.

    5. Re:stick to your knitting by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If Microsoft is so loyal to Windows, why are they dumping the only good version they've ever had and bringing out this Metro horse crap?

      You can tell they are desperate with the $40 price tag, but I wouldn't use it if they paid me.

  13. stack ranking is a version of rank and yank by Wansu · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This concept was foisted upon the world by former GE CEO Jack Welsh. It has ruined one company after another and is an example of the cure being worse than the disease. Watch out when your company hires in HR people from places like GE, IBM, Microsoft, Nortel, AT&T, etc.. They will try to get a promotion by implementing a slightly different version of this which will have about the same results.

    --
    Wansu, th' chinese sailor
    1. Re:stack ranking is a version of rank and yank by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Wow, this comments explains so much about my experience at my last employer - a Fortune 500 company with very little respect for their IT department. In a ham-fisted attempt to "improve" the department, they created a new CIO position and hired an IT exec from GE to fill it. As you might expect, he instituted a stack ranking system (though that specific term was never used) based on the most asinine, subjective metrics imaginable. For example, only 1/3 of your overall ranking was based on your job performance. The other 2/3 were essentially a mix of your career ambition levels and your likelihood of staying with the company. It was a system tailor-made for brown-nosers, glory hogs, and sociopaths.

      Morale went through the floor immediately, and mistrust ran rampant. At the same time, the department was being massively restructured, so the ladder-climbing jackals went frantic trying to figure out whose ass to kiss and whose back to stab. I left pretty quickly, but from what I gathered from those who stayed, the whole thing melted down in under 2 years and resulted in the department being gutted and replaced almost entirely with H-1B workers.

    2. Re:stack ranking is a version of rank and yank by mabhatter654 · · Score: 1

      And THAT was the point!

      To sink the ship so badly from inside, that you can then go to management and push for the outsourced result.

    3. Re:stack ranking is a version of rank and yank by slew · · Score: 2

      ...a Fortune 500 company with very little respect for their IT department......the whole thing melted down in under 2 years and resulted in the department being gutted and replaced almost entirely with H-1B workers.

      I think you have your answer right there. They probably got the result they were looking for and it took less than 2 years...

    4. Re:stack ranking is a version of rank and yank by martyros · · Score: 1

      They will try to get a promotion by implementing a slightly different version of this which will have about the same results.

      And probably the first year, they'll get a huge boost in performance / cost by getting rid of dead weight, making it seem like it was a really good idea.

      --

      TCP: Why the Internet is full of SYN.

  14. post-modern news by PopeRatzo · · Score: 4, Funny

    A summary of an article about a story about an as-yet-unpublished article.

    What a wonderful world.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
    1. Re:post-modern news by chartreuse · · Score: 1

      Yeah, the only greater waste of time would be bothering to comment on such a thing. (Or commenting on such a comment.)

  15. Stacked ranking at HP by hamster_nz · · Score: 5, Interesting

    We had the same at HP - if you got the bottom ranking twice in a row you were asked to leave. We had a stable team of 10 engineers, all of which were good at their job but one had to be ranked as incompetent.

    We working through the list alphabetically, so everybody got it once in a while but never twice in a row.

    1. Re:Stacked ranking at HP by nanoflower · · Score: 1

      You were lucky that you had a manager that actually cared about his/her employees. Many managers wouldn't give it a second thought.

    2. Re:Stacked ranking at HP by Osty · · Score: 5, Interesting

      But then you all have a black mark on your record, making it harder to move teams. And compensation is directly tied to review ratings, so for the review period where you get the short straw you may get nothing -- no raise (not even cost of living/inflation), no bonus, no stock. Just an uncomfortable discussion, a bad mark on your review record that will send up a red flag to other teams, and the hope that your manager doesn't get replaced with someone else who doesn't follow the previous manager's rotation and will pigeonhole you based on your previous bad review.

      Jack Welch implemented stack ranking at GE when the company was over-sized and performing poorly. It was intended to be a short-term (couple year) measure to identify and weed out underperformers. It was not intended to be a long-term business standard. Filtering out 5-20% of your work force every year is not sustainable (why do you think Microsoft complains about the lack of H1-B visas?), and the system is ripe for exploitation. Your manager exploited the system in an arguably good way (making the best of a bad situation), but plenty of managers will use stack ranking to get rid of people who are competent but have somehow rubbed the manager the wrong way, or in a misguided attempt to retain talent (give them a good review and they will leave to better things, but give them a bad review and no other team will take them and they're left with the choice of staying where they're at or leaving the company entirely), or as an exercise in empire building (make your way up the corporate ladder by bringing along people below you to push you up at the expense of others who may be more competent but less willing to play politics).

      Part of the problem is that stack ranking is so pervasive in the software industry. All of the major companies do it. Smaller companies do it because the big companies do it. Every now and then you'll find someone unique like Netflix, but if you leave Microsoft for Google, or HP for Amazon, you're just going from one stack ranking system to another. The individual details may be slightly different, but the overall system is the same.

  16. Behold the evil that is Microsoft! by FridayBob · · Score: 1

    Let the ranting begin!

  17. If Steve Ballmer were "stack ranked" by mbkennel · · Score: 1

    where would he be? Hmm????

  18. Eval process kills another company by bbbaldie · · Score: 4, Interesting
    I worked at a place that manufactured snack cakes with a cute little girl as their trademark. I worked there 13 years as an hourly employee, then got promoted into their IT department.

    It was great for five years or so, then the third generation of this family-owned started flexing their muscles, invoking a new unsaid policy that unless you could prove otherwise, the assumption was that you were a lazy goof-off who should be demoted or fired.

    Thus was born the semiannual evaluations from hell process.

    I would typically spend 20-40 hours applying loads of manure to my evaluation in an effort to be spared the axe. So would every other salaried employee in the billion-dollar company. This was time that could have been used in improving our production numbers via technology (I was an intranet developer). Instead, we had to slather our way though an incomprehensible eval process that forced us to make predictions based on absolutely no data. Basically, we had to try to read the minds of a couple of dysfunctional family members who now found themselves in officer positions.

    They probably couldn't get warehouse worker jobs for Wal-Mart, thank God (for them) that they were members of the family.

    I've been gone about a year now, others are going over the wall as other jobs make themselves available. The company has managed to grow in a bad economy, but when things get better, I predict a Microsoft-like turn for the worse, as folks who can afford Hostess or Dolly Madison snack cakes leave in droves.

    I'm not saying that the psychotic salaried evals are causing the downfall of the company, but they certainly are a barometer of how things in general are going. Just like Microsoft.

    1. Re:Eval process kills another company by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hello from NWA. My father worked there for 20 years as a mixer and got dragged into Cookie Court because of a joke about breasts told verbally. He was chastised and not fired. Sent home in shame, though.

      He was planning to quit as he was finalizing a college education to become a school teacher. The motivation was that he gets summers off. Fucking guy lived in MO, drove to Joplin for school during the day, and then drove to AR to work by night. When it was time to begin his student-teaching, he would have to quit.

      All of this transpired around the same time. Rather than quit with notice, he was scorned by how his superiors treated him as a loyal employee of 20 years. He walked out after he was given his profit sharing check. They called him about 2 hours later wondering what the hell happened to him. He never called them back. I wonder what happened to the Oatmeal Cream Pie line when we walked out... I don't know if they have backup mixers on standby...

  19. Microsoft is practicing "Decimation" by Steve1952 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    According to Wikipedia: Decimation (Latin: decimatio; decem = "ten") was a form of military discipline used by officers in the Roman Army to punish mutinous or cowardly soldiers. The word decimation is derived from Latin meaning "removal of a tenth".[1] A unit selected for punishment by decimation was divided into groups of ten; each group drew lots (Sortition), and the soldier on whom the lot fell was executed by his nine comrades, often by stoning or clubbing

    OK a valid if harsh form of management, but note the critical distinction that the Romans reserved this very harsh technique for unusual events. They were not dumb enough to do this to every unit on a routine basis!

    1. Re:Microsoft is practicing "Decimation" by Wansu · · Score: 3, Informative

        "... the Romans reserved this very harsh technique for unusual events. They were not dumb enough to do this to every unit on a routine basis!"

      Neutron Jack was right about companies accumulating dead wood. They can and do. Used on a one time basis to get shed of non-productive workers, Rank and Yank is highly effective. But then they keep doing it on a routine basis. On subsequent iterations, they get rid of good people. They become so fixated on this process, it becomes an end in and of itself. I wonder whether Welch knew what he had set loose upon the world.

      --
      Wansu, th' chinese sailor
    2. Re:Microsoft is practicing "Decimation" by NilleKopparmynt · · Score: 5, Informative

      I think your parable is very apt. I worked for Microsoft for five years and for three of those I was put in the 10% bucket. The worst was not to be singled out as the poorest employee. The worst was not that it was totally unfair, fundamentally wrong and without any proper motivation. The worst was the bullying that ensued. The managers had nothing that they could motivate it with, since there was nothing wrong with my performance, so they reached for every straw that they could find to try to motivate why I was the bottom performer. Besides pinning other peoples mistakes on me the most popular blame was to give me a really hard time when I did my job really well. Since I worked as a tester (SDET) this was really easy. Every time I found a really good bug (you know, the ones that companies like Google now give out cash rewards for) I got blamed for finding it too late and that it fundamentally was my fault that the bug was there in the first place.

      The absolutely biggest regret I have is hanging in there for so long. It is so utterly destructive on your motivation, confidence, happiness and competence to twice per year getting it on paper that you suck and being bullied in between. You can ignore it for a while but in the end it gets you deeper than you could imagine.

      One thing that is a bit surprising is that Google evaluate its employees four times per year compared to Microsoft's two. I wonder what consequences that will have...

  20. Re:any job with metrics / review where someone has by Billly+Gates · · Score: 1

    any job with metrics / review where someone has to get a poor review all suck and if you want to see how bad it can get look at best buy, circuit city, staples and others to see where that get's you.

    Or teaching for that matter. All employers are doing this now and the MBAs love them. Maybe I am cynical but the strong demand for results really is the result of all this downsizing and restructuring.

  21. As a Microsoft employee by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The stack ranking wouldn't be a destructive process, if management used it correctly. It should be a template on where the team member is placed because they perform at a certain level of execution. Not a tool to make sure the list has a certain amount of 1s, 2s, ... 5s.

    On my team there are employees who are there to collect a paycheck and coast; they deserve lower rankings because of their mediocre to poor performance. We have guys that do what they are told (and that's it), they get average reviews (3s). Sounds about right? It does work there. We also have politically savvy individuals that deliver nothing and guys that actually perform and do a lot of work. Guess who gets the higher numbers? Management claims it's not political; to the point where they have to have HR in the room to ensure it's not political. It doesn't, hasn't and never will work. (It really burns me when someone with a bunch of hot hair gets a 1; when you work your tail off and get a 2...)

    The example given, 10 employees, and only 2 with awesome reviews creates a competitive atmosphere. Management is always on the look out for faults in an employee that have been used for years against someone. It kills moral, makes people self-pontificate way to much (and say nothing) while doing little to self promote how great they are. If they used the number system as a template to rank employees and not force a bell curve, Microsoft would have happier and more innovative employees.

    1. Re:As a Microsoft employee by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your experience is evidently very different than mine as an MS employee. According to the discussions that I've had with my lead, they go into the stack ranking calibrations with an idea of what number each given employee deserves, given their work over the past year and their current level. At this phase of the process, there is no attempt to fit to any statistical curve, it is only once those results are rolled up into larger, more statistically significant groups, that those adjustments are made, and it is generally only those on the borderline of one score or the other that that are affected, as often positively as negatively.

      At my level, I feel no pressure to compete against my teammates, in fact making them successful is something that I would be highly rewarded for. I know that once you get to the Principal level, calibration works somewhat differently, so I have no comment on what things are like at levels 64+, or among management, but as a rank and file dev, I don't recognize the system you are describing at all.

    2. Re:As a Microsoft employee by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      At my level, I feel no pressure to compete against my teammates, in fact making them successful is something that I would be highly rewarded for. I know that once you get to the Principal level, calibration works somewhat differently, so I have no comment on what things are like at levels 64+, or among management, but as a rank and file dev, I don't recognize the system you are describing at all.

      What this actually means is that you have a very good manager who fights tooth and nail for his team. Probably a good skip, as well. Stick to them; this matters a great deal everywhere, but in MS, especially so.

      At this phase of the process, there is no attempt to fit to any statistical curve, it is only once those results are rolled up into larger, more statistically significant groups, that those adjustments are made, and it is generally only those on the borderline of one score or the other that that are affected, as often positively as negatively.

      The process doesn't make sense on any scale, if used repeatedly. I mean, do you seriously believe that, every year, 10% of employees in the company are "bad" and should be fired? Because that's essentially what stack ranking boils down to. The fact that it's repeatedly used can only indicate that employees that were shed in the previous round were replaced by similarly incompetent ones; but then, what's the point? The other option - if you're optimistic - is that the average quality of employees gets higher every round, but this would be readily evident from direct observation - and observation does not support that theory.

  22. Prevents retirement by symbolset · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Your odds of surviving thirty years of this is approximately zero. Everybody has an off year eventually. Once people realize that, their commitment also goes to zero.

    --
    Help stamp out iliturcy.
    1. Re:Prevents retirement by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Does anyone survive 30 years in this industry anywhere? I survived 10. I am a shell of a man for it.

    2. Re:Prevents retirement by Tough+Love · · Score: 2

      The thing is, the rankings actually have very little to do with performance. The opposite, more like it. If you're good, somebody above you feels theatened.

      --
      When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
    3. Re:Prevents retirement by subreality · · Score: 1

      30 years? My whole career is in software companies and I have never worked at any company that even pretended that anyone was going to stick around that long. Retirement consists of a good 401k plan, not a pension. Commitment comes in the form of vesting schedules. I have achieved seniority in several departments by sticking around 3-4 years. The very idea of working for one place for 30 years straight just boggles my mind, and honestly it's not an attractive idea to me at all.

    4. Re:Prevents retirement by symbolset · · Score: 1

      So it's ok with you for your essential enterprise systems to be designed and built by people who have no intention to still be around by the time they might fail. Interesting.

      --
      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    5. Re:Prevents retirement by subreality · · Score: 1

      Regardless of whether it's a good idea or not, I'm just talking about the way things are. 30-year careers are just unheard-of.

      In other industries it's certainly different, but in software companies where there's not as much long-term infrastructure to support: build servers are simply replaced every few years, the WAN is just a standard bunch of VPNs between offices so anyone can figure it out once they have a copy of the network map. The product itself has long term needs and hanging onto the architects and top developers is important, but everywhere I've been, turnover is just customary.

  23. Perverse management incentives by hibiki_r · · Score: 5, Interesting

    When using a review system like this, few things are more valuable to a manager than some really terrible employees.

    Imagine I have 2 amazing developers in my team and 3 very good ones, and the ranking system is going to force me to give one a bad review: It will not only make that one very good developer mad, but sour things for the other two, that have to keep beating the poor sob I randomly chose as the one getting the bad review. However, what if I transfer one of my very good developers to a different team in exchange for a worthless chump? Give the chump nothing important to do, and then the rest of your team can continue unhindered and unafraid of getting an awful review just because they are associated with a competitive team.

    I used to work at a place like this. If a new hire was just way too good, he was moved to a different team that had lost a top performer, and team quality was kept relatively even: We had to protect the good developers we had. Any team that was too good just had to be split up, or they'd quit anyway.

    1. Re:Perverse management incentives by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When using a review system like this, few things are more valuable to a manager than some really terrible employees.

      Imagine I have 2 amazing developers in my team and 3 very good ones, and the ranking system is going to force me to give one a bad review: It will not only make that one very good developer mad, but sour things for the other two, that have to keep beating the poor sob I randomly chose as the one getting the bad review. However, what if I transfer one of my very good developers to a different team in exchange for a worthless chump? Give the chump nothing important to do, and then the rest of your team can continue unhindered and unafraid of getting an awful review just because they are associated with a competitive team.

      I used to work at a place like this. If a new hire was just way too good, he was moved to a different team that had lost a top performer, and team quality was kept relatively even: We had to protect the good developers we had. Any team that was too good just had to be split up, or they'd quit anyway.

      would have had to be a group with 2 worthless chump or they wouldnt want to give up their 'easy solution' to the same problem for them.....

  24. Getting people off of XP by Belial6 · · Score: 1

    Unless they are looking to move as many people over as possible in as short of a time as possible. XP was a good OS. There are still plenty of people dedicated to continuing to run it. I myself have 2 computers and 2 VM that I still have on XP. If 8 doesn't completely blow, I will seriously consider upgrading the VMs to Windows 8, and if the XP machines hardware will run it, I might just upgrade them as well. XP is comming to it's end of life. The fewer people still on it on the EOL date, the less complaining about MS we will hear.

    Then I have to ask (since I haven't seen the price that OEMs pay for 8. or 7 for that matter), Is the price of 8 20% less, or is MS just bringing the retail price of Windows closer in line with the OEM prices?

    1. Re:Getting people off of XP by TaoPhoenix · · Score: 1

      Yeah, count me in on the XP Meta-Game. Six years ago I built a custom comp to ride out XP past all this ephemeral crap, then finally at the last minute upgrade to the results of the future of computing. But what we learned from XP is that tons of basic programs and work hit a sweet spot, so upgrades weren't necessary. If my machine holds out long enough, I want to find out the subsequent results of the Windows 8, whether it becomes like a Zune and gets trashed or if by Windows 9 it becomes really worth moving to finally. But I have to hold out for one more generation.

      --
      My first Journal Entry ever, in 8 years! http://slashdot.org/journal/365947/aphelion-scifi-fantasy-horror-poetry-webzine
    2. Re:Getting people off of XP by mabhatter654 · · Score: 1

      Windows 7 is the new XP. That was obvious 2 years ago when my IT department moved our shop over. Anybody not on it is silly, unless you still have the old XP hardware. Microsoft should have practically GIVEN it away to the Vista owners just to get Vista off the map ASAP, and that would put about 5 years of hardware on it now.

      The issue with Windows 8 is that it's really tied to hardware features like touch screens, web cams, new input methods, etc. it's really something you need on a NEW PC to appreciate it and get value from. It's meant to move past the "White box, monitor, keyboard, mouse" combo. This is the point where all the folks that think Windows has to be "just like" Windows yesterday are going to bring the ship down. Hard.

  25. But they kick ass in the enterprise domain by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Seriously, Microsoft just about owns the commercial enterprise infrastructure stack in many industries these days. You fuzzy bearded Linux types living in your parent's basement would be absolutely blown away at the penetration of MS Windows server OSes, Exchange, SharePoint, MS-SQL - you name it - in large companies in private industry. I mean AMAZED.

    I don't know why they still dick around with stuff like phones, music players - they are making bank in the enterprise.

    1. Re:But they kick ass in the enterprise domain by ocratato · · Score: 1

      and the mess when they finally do go down is going to be catastrophic for those industries.

      Books like this are at least a warning to managers that putting all their eggs in a single basket might not be the best strategy.

    2. Re:But they kick ass in the enterprise domain by mabhatter654 · · Score: 2

      but there's little GROWTH in those markets anymore. Those are tired of getting constantly beat up to buy stuff they don't want or need just to make Microsoft's sales increases for the year. It's a great gig, but trying to FORCE your customers to buy 20% more every year isn't sustainable. For all that technology, Microsoft is more like American Standard... you know the guys that make sinks and toilets that are everywhere. Does anybody in the stock market CARE about toilet makers? Even if they did clear nice profits, they won't clear 20% growth numbers unless they have a wing dedicated to food poisoning and fiber sales.

      A company that focuses on maintaining profit margin on established products acts much differently to attract sane investors. They focus on sustainable profits and getting things shipped on time, done right... their goal is to be as NOT FLASHY as possible because that is how the VAST MAJORITY of companies make their money, slow and steady like the tortoise not the hare.

      In short, EVERYTHING Microsoft is doing is WRONG for their Enterprise customers.

  26. The true shocker in the story... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    For me, the real shocker in the story was simply this: Finding out that Microsoft is still in business. Who knew?

  27. M$ Is Gates by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Microsoft Corp. today is still a model of the inner workings and idiosyncrasies of William B. Gates III.

    A stunning achievement in that a large corporation has achieved.

    In this Microsoft Corp. has achieved, not failed.

    What wonder. Gate II bought a small New Mexico company, gave it to his son Gate III after the disastrous period of the younger Gates at Harvard, now look what that money bought.

    Astonishing achievement indeed. XD

    LoL

  28. explain Micro Shoddy.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Reviews made by managers (similarly 'reviewed') who most havent a clue what good programming or process is and this kind of system leads to sycophantry and more effort on keeping the job by pretending to 'look good'.

    Explains alot of why microsoft only thinks that quality should be 'good enuf' for a monopoly situation (which is poor enough usually to begin with).

    And no Im not a mac 'gold plated terd' lover or a linux fanboi, I just would have liked to see microsoft forced by competition to have much better quality (and THEY have no excuse that 'it costs too much'...)

  29. One word for it by Tough+Love · · Score: 1

    Monkeyboy.

    --
    When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
  30. Oracle works the same way by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Posting AC, but Oracle works the same way. As a result, our team had the best year ever in the products history and I personally had one of the best years of my career but it doesnt matter because everyone gets bonuses/etc in a round-robin fashion. Managers are not allowed to reward everyone.

    I don't put nearly as much effort in anymore because it won't make a damn bit of difference.

    Slow, bloated beauracracy is the very definition of Oracle. Want some extra VMs to debug customer issues? Denied. Want a higher resolution screen on your laptop? Denied. Want more than 4GB ram on a developer machine? Denied. All exceptions must be approved by Larry Ellison's office.

    There are a lot of really talented people at Oracle who are very disgruntled. If you want to poach talent, check it out. At this point I don't give a crap about the money... I just want a sane work environment.

    1. Re:Oracle works the same way by Zontar+The+Mindless · · Score: 1

      "There are no rock stars at Oracle".

      --
      Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
  31. Re:any job with metrics / review where someone has by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 1

    also managers who don't know what they are managing also drive stuff like that. You can take a good manager and put as the head of a group that then have no idea on what they do / how they work and they can fail.

    In sports most team managers are former players so they know how things work.

  32. Google has stack ranking too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    But somehow it just works here. This is probably because we rely heavily on peer feedback and tractable facts about employee performance (i.e. what the employee has actually done, as expressed in launched products, features, changelists, design docs and so on). And engineers participate in perf reviews to a much greater extent. And the lowest ranked person doesn't have to be fired, because as a rule Google's lowest ranked employees would often be superstars just about anywhere else.

    MS review process, on the other hand, makes one feel that no matter what you do, you're going to get reamed in the ass anyway. And if you do well, it's often arbitrary and unexpected. I did not expect three out of my five promotions there, and was passed over for a promo once simply because I brought up some uncomfortable truths which made the product unit manager (PUM in MS lingo) look like a fool.

    Disclaimer: I do currently work for Google (3 years), and I have previously worked for Microsoft for nearly a decade.

    1. Re:Google has stack ranking too by NilleKopparmynt · · Score: 1

      So how do these "superstars just about anywhere else" feel and react when they are given on paper that they are the worst performers at the place they are at? Most people do not like it and I am pretty certain that the people at Google feel the same.

      Engineers at Microsoft also participate in perf reviews through the feedback system. This is largely ignored by managers and I assume that it is exactly the same at Google. Mainly because I know that Google is infested with former Microsoft employees which have taken Microsoft practices with them.

      Stack ranking is probably even more destructive at Google where you have four reviews per year. Google has a very tough interview process to get employed and I have gone through it. If a person passes that process and then gets it on paper that he sucks then you are doing damage to that very good employee. What is the purpose of that?

    2. Re:Google has stack ranking too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They get "meets expectations" and work harder next quarter. It sucks, but unless you did something extraordinary, the comp is generally about the same as for everybody else, modulo a bit of the bonus. If the whole team brutally kicked ass, everyone can get "exceeds", but this is rare. Another thing that makes perf easier at Google, is that it's a quarterly process.

    3. Re:Google has stack ranking too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Also, your assumption about Google is incorrect. The primary input to your yearly perf review or promo here is peer feedback.

      And while there are quite a few exMSFT people here, we take care to only hire the good folks, and that is why there are almost no managers or PMs from there. The few engineers that do make it through the interviews hope to god that Microsoft is not replicated here.

      Unless you're going for a promo, perf is really not something I worry about at all here. It all just works out to my satisfaction, and in three years I haven't once felt that I was treated unfairly.

    4. Re:Google has stack ranking too by NilleKopparmynt · · Score: 1

      My main question to you Google people is: does Google force managers to create 20%, 70% and 10% buckets like at Microsoft? Are the managers forced to single out "worst performers" even if everyone is performing well?

  33. Re:PC Market by TaoPhoenix · · Score: 1

    See that's just it, the PC market is half as much an albatross as it is a cash cow - MS really *can't* abandon the PC market, because for better or worse through all their OEM deals, they made it. If they ditch PC's to become the Zune of Mobile, they'll croak and we'll see chaos that hasn't been seen since 1985 with some 7 vendors fighting it out.

    That would cause *billions* of conversion damage.

    --
    My first Journal Entry ever, in 8 years! http://slashdot.org/journal/365947/aphelion-scifi-fantasy-horror-poetry-webzine
  34. Re:PC Market by binarylarry · · Score: 1

    It'd be awesome for people working in IT... new IT boom.

    --
    Mod me down, my New Earth Global Warmingist friends!
  35. Re:PC Market by Sir_Sri · · Score: 1

    I was envisioning more of a scenario where the PC market itself disappears into cloud services and tablets sort of thing, where the platform you're running on the device is secondary to the web standards and big kid server stuff on the backend. In that case I suppose I was sloppy in my use of language, it's not so much MS giving up the desktop business as the desktop business bypassing windows entirely, and MS being forced into some other kind of company.

  36. Why the kid gloves? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why are they giving mickeysoft the kid gloves? They are a predatory monopolist that should have been broken into at least 10 pieces in 1999. They need to be killed. They are a pariah on the technology industry. That there is no competition in the desktop computer market is full proof of that. They stole other peoples technology. That they have founders that now give money to charity is like Josef Mengele donating to an orphanage gold teeth he personally chiseled out of the mouths of people entering the gas chambers (prior to going in).

  37. I left Microsoft for this exact reason by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Worked there for 5 years in the late 90s and never made it out of the 'new guy on the team' mediocre HR
    ranking, which pissed me off every 6 months.

  38. US Military does this too by AntiBasic · · Score: 2

    The military uses a system very close to this. The most common evals give are EP (Early Promote, the best), MP (Must Promote, the one nearly everyone gets) and P (Promotable). But as we're locked in contracts and it's quite hard to get fired, the number one thing commanding officers are graded upon is retention. So what happens when you've got a very high performer who makes it known he won't be reenlisting? He'll be given that MP or dreaded P. What happens to that fuckup who swears he loves the Navy and will reenlist? He gets that EP no matter what.

    Rather than being a system which rewards the most able, it only entrenches more anger and dissatisfaction with this false meritocracy.

    1. Re:US Military does this too by mellyra · · Score: 1

      so you think it would be an awesome idea to invest additional training into people who are going to quit anyways?

    2. Re:US Military does this too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What happens to that fuckup who swears he loves the Navy and will reenlist? He gets that EP no matter what.

      Well as a counter point I'll offer up an Air Force experience from years ago. At that time (and probably still) the promotion from 2nd Lieutenant to 1st was nearly automatic (1). A few did something remarkable, got noticed and were promoted about 6 months before their peers but otherwise each group got promoted together. Well, except this one time... Out of a couple of thousand (don't recall the exact number, maybe around 2.5k?) in the promotion pool 'zone', all got promoted except for one. Now we're left to speculate as to what this one individual did to distinguish themselves to the point that they're the on guy who didn't get promoted.

      (1) The real ranking & weed out starts with the rankings for making Captain and then gets really intense for Major.

  39. Re:any job with metrics / review where someone has by micheas · · Score: 1

    Well Circuit City tried the rank the sales staff from 1 to 10 with 10 being best and fire all the 7, 8, 9, and 10 employees. That seems to kill your business in 90 days.

  40. Forced Quota by geoffrobinson · · Score: 1

    Instead of failing to meet an objective standard, this is forced quota system.

    --
    Except for ending slavery, the Nazis, communism, & securing American independence, war has never solved anything.
  41. Evaluation EZ Form by geoffrobinson · · Score: 1

    My manager at a defense contractor that used the forced ranking system wanted something akin to the IRS's EZ form. I know I'm going to get ranked Satisfactory, why do I have to wast 40 hours on this process?

    Fortunately, managers were humane enough in doling out the bad rankings. If it was known an employee was retiring, that person would get the bad review.

    --
    Except for ending slavery, the Nazis, communism, & securing American independence, war has never solved anything.
  42. The Cannibalistic Culture by Taco+Cowboy · · Score: 4, Interesting

    To be fair to Microsoft, the "Cannibalistic Culture" is alive and well in many other corporations

    However, this does not mean M$ does not suffer any damage because of it

    I'll just take one example - Michael Abrash

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Abrash

    He is the author of the book "Zen of Assembly Language Volume 1" published in 1990.

    Mr. Abrash worked for Microsoft, twice - and at both times, had come face to face with the cannibalistic culture inside Microsoft

    FYI, Mr. Michael Abrash is not a run-of-the-mill programmer

    This guy is a super top notch programmer

    He could have contributed much more of his talent to M$ had the cannibalistic culture is not so prevalent there
     

    --
    Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
    1. Re:The Cannibalistic Culture by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 2

      They started this at our company last year.

      The net result was loss of a lot of middle people. Where they felt secure before, now they find it makes more sense to go to a different company with better pay and shorter hours.

      We can't even use decimals.
      Basically you are outperforming (promotable), performing (you are average), or you are under performing (shape up or be fired).

      As the job market tightens up with the boomers and older chinese retiring or quitting for less stressful jobs, companies are going to have to treat workers better or be left out cold.

      Oh.. and we also lost our top performers too. Too many hours and the pay is better at other places for top performers.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
  43. Same story, different place by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I also found myself on the losing end of a ratings battle at a past employer. The 'A' employees were rock stars, 'B' employees were above average, 'C' employees were just OK, and if you got rated 'D' -- better start looking for a new job, FAST. After three years of employment, good performance ratings and two healthy bonuses, my 'performance' started getting downgraded. I couldn't get a thing out of my team leader, who I thought I knew well, and could trust.

    I worked harder after that, working through a three day weekend one time to fix a problem I'd caught, just to stay on schedule. Three months after my bogus 'poor' rating, I was called to a meeting where HR (whose job is to protect the *company*, kids -- keep that in mind) had a beautifully written warning ready that bore little resemblance to the truth.

    I worked even harder after that, trying to pull out of the die that I appeared to be in, but to no avail -- I was out. I'm glad I'm not working there any more, but I left feeling a little insulted by the whole process. If you have to spend more time defending your job than actually working to perform your duties, isn't that messed up?

  44. Re:PC Market by colinrichardday · · Score: 1

    the PC market is half as much an albatross as it is a cash cow - MS really *can't* abandon the PC market

    Albatross? I'd like that kind of "albatross". If the PC market doesn't tank, Microsoft keeps selling stuff; if it does tank, why would Microsoft continue with the OEMs? The second possibility is bad for Microsoft, but it could abandon the PC market.

  45. Re:PC Market by mabhatter654 · · Score: 1

    Bingo, it was Steve Jobs ambition to BEAT Microsoft that lead to iPhone and iPad... because Microsoft was such a dominant king of such a very big hill.... with nothing for anybody else.

    it took something really crazy and well plotted to get the masses to "go to another hill". That's why iPhone/iPad had to have DELIVERY so much better than anything out there. Go big or go home is all Microsoft left on the table. Meaning that when anybody got CLOSE to them a few years ago, they completely MISSED the threat... and are being gutted.

  46. Downfall? by colinrichardday · · Score: 1

    But who has to tell Ballmer that Steiner's force doesn't exist?

  47. Stack Ranking...real bad by Harry+in+the+Soup · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I left a company in the UK becuase of this. I put together a team selected from the top IT professionals in the company and all of whom got top reviews and pay hikes. When I reviewed them 12 months later I gave them all top marks but the HR dept said I could only put 2 at the top, 6 in the middle and 2 at the bottom. They just could not see why this was wrong and said it was Company Policy...this was not an IT specific company btw. Anyway after a fuss I left and so did 7 of the others when they found out what was going on.

  48. Metrics fail by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    All employee metrics that are not based on ownership of the case, are bad metrics.

    I'm not going dive into what Microsoft has for employees, but if you're paying someone a salary, they should be responsible for X, Y and Z, no more no less. If Z is no longer something they want to do, find someone else to handle Z.

    When you "stack rank", or base performance metrics on time metrics (eg calls per hour, short call handle time, short email responses, etc) you encourage employees to cheat. In call centers this means intentionally doing things that waste other employees time, or defer ownership of something to anyone but you. It's demoralizing because instead of working together, you as someone potentially on the receiving end of a stinker of a case, will do anything in your power to not take ownership of something someone was given.

    When you pay someone an hourly wage, you're not valuing their experience. The only people that should be paid hourly wages are those that are doing non-skilled labor. Literately, if you hire someone off the street and train them, you can pay them an hourly wage. If you're poaching someone already trained or experienced in something, you pay them a fixed salary. You don't apply hourly metrics to someone on salary, because that in turn means they will have to cheat the metrics if you apply any punitive measures for not meeting them.

    See Enron.

  49. BALLMER is the bottom 10% that should be sacked by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

    AJAX is just asynchronous calls brought to Javascript, HD in a console? i.e. they couldn't fully eliminate the HD from the computer they made into a console,

    Scroll wheel on a mouse? Logitech trackball in a mouse 1983
    http://www.google.com/patents/US4562347

    Seriously, you're scraping the barrel to find anything you can interpret as invention, and its very similar to the comments scraping the barrel to make Ballmer sound like a good CEO.

    Jack Welch of GE said "sack the bottom 10% of your workforce" not "sack 10% of each team whether successful or not", the winning teams must spend a lot of time infighting needlessly when they're winning. Ballmer is just raising the prices of products each year and it will kill Microsoft quicker than the competition will. He needs to be replaced sooner rather than later.

    BALLMER is the bottom 10% that should be sacked.

    1. Re:BALLMER is the bottom 10% that should be sacked by theArtificial · · Score: 1

      Scroll wheel on a mouse? Logitech trackball in a mouse 1983

      A ball is not a wheel. Also, if they were the first to have a scroll wheel (which isn't the case) why didn't they bring theirs to market before their competition did?

      Seriously, you're scraping the barrel to find anything you can interpret as invention, and its very similar to the comments scraping the barrel to make Ballmer sound like a good CEO.

      If you'll look at my post I didn't mention anything about the management there. The GP said Microsoft never innovated anything and I provided examples. Apple is full of failures too, how's Ping working out for them? See that's the thing about actually trying things, sometimes you fail. It's part of the learning process.

      --
      Man blir trött av att gå och göra ingenting.
  50. Re:PC Market by hairyfeet · · Score: 1

    Won't happen friend because the ISPs will just label screwing you on bandwidth "free speech" and good luck with being able to do squat in the cloud without bandwidth. to do what you are suggesting we'd need a good 40Mbps connection standard both ways, and there is very few places in the USA that are anywhere close to that. might work in parts of Asia, not planetwide.

    --
    ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
  51. Simple statistics by muxecoid · · Score: 1

    50% of company employees will always perform below company median. This can not be changed. What can be achieved is 100% of employees being beyond industry-wide median. Once most of the engineers are beyond the best candidates available for hire company should stop stack ranking. The problem with candidates however is you never know how good they are.

  52. Delusional if not outright insane by SmallFurryCreature · · Score: 1

    MS revenue is anything but safe and Vista proved this. Windows 8 could be a complete and utter dud or even worse, people could decide Windows 7 suits them just fine even if Windows 9 reverses all the mistakes in 8. Hell, lots of people are still on XP.

    There is also the recent ruling that software licenses can be sold on. Some company does go Windows 8? Lots of very cheap Windows 7 licenses available.

    Same with office. An old version might just continue to be all you need. Buy an old license, it is not like software wears down or worse, go free after you realized that those employees that can't learn a new package are not employees worth having. Any case, if people can't move from office to libre, how will they handle a MS upgrade without the same amount of hassle? It is not like MS keeps its interfaces consistent over versions or anything.

    Apple has shown just how volatile the tech market really is. iPhone destroyed two tech giants (Nokia and RIM) overnight and thanks to OSX and McBooks, all of sudden all MS offices are no longer what the boss with his shiny new iPenis insists on."Hey, you use linux right, maybe you can help me get my Apple laptop working on our infrastructure?" And another nail in MS coffin as now the Linux guy with all his free software and zero license cost and zero compliance cost is the one making sure the boss can use the tools he wants.

    With a down economy, company owners, especially small companies are very open to save costs and very down on employees that refuge to change.

    MS did well, so did Sun when the sky was blue and budgets were meant to be spent. Sun is dead, can Micro "Just add another server" Soft survive? Sure... they got lots of cash, they can afford to give things away. But not Office and Windows as they already use this to finance their other loss making projects.

    That is MS biggest problem, it got a lot of revenue and profit but it is using it to fund to many things that never have and never will make a profit on their own.

    Meanwhile Apple has got a shitload of income and nothing to spend it on. It has virtually no loss leaders. So even if the next project by Apple ends up a dud, they can take it. For MS it would be just another drain when they already got so many.

    It is not impossible when you got lots of income to go bankrupt still if you just spend it even faster.

    --

    MMO Quests are like orgasms:

    You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.

    1. Re:Delusional if not outright insane by west · · Score: 1

      Well, given MS profit has been steadily rising, they aren't even hurting.

      And even if MS never developed another thing, they'd still be making truckloads of money on Windows 7 and Office, and businesses basically have to upgrade when support runs out. Most companies with 10,000+ PCs are soon moving to 7, with another truckload of money for MS.

      Basically, unless the PC dies, MS is in good shape financially. Technically, they've lost their mojo, but honestly, does it matter? You only have to be brilliant if you don't have every company shoveling money at you for every employee they hire (who needs a PC with Windows and Office).

      Every dead company was eaten by a competitor, but honestly, can you imagine the PC dying in business?

    2. Re:Delusional if not outright insane by gtall · · Score: 1

      TheRegister has a story about a recent interview with Bill Gates. He believes the PC is going away to be replaced everywhere with Surface-like devices...claims will totally revolutionize...errr....something...blah, blah, blah....

      I think what MS fears is that there are plenty of PCs in industry that are not doing work that can only be done on a PC, that iPad like devices will do just fine for. If that be the case, then the total amount of dough MS gets to rake in goes down. And what probably has them frightened worse is that no one can predict what iPad like devices will morph into and what kind of new work flows it will spawn. Hence, Gates' belief that the PC is impersonating the dodo.

      If companies like Dell and HP can no long ship volumes of PC where their profit is already marginal, and those companies leave the market, then industry may be forced to develop new workflows around iStuff like devices.

    3. Re:Delusional if not outright insane by west · · Score: 1

      No one wants to say, even Bill Gates, that PCs are a boring commodity, with Microsoft having a virtual monopoly on it. Who the heck wants an interview where the future isn't shiny?

      PCs may undergo a gradual decline to maybe 80% of their corporate sales and 60% of their home sales, but that's still a huge profitable market that MS can keep while spending next to nothing on R+D. Microsoft's downfall is not destruction. Perhaps a nice income trust.

      And given the competition, PC prices can nudge upward once enough competitors leave the market. It's not like a consumer market= where people will go without rather than pay a little extra. If PCs go back up to being $1K/piece, that's still a minute fraction of worker's salaries.

  53. Is it? by SmallFurryCreature · · Score: 1

    What IBM? They are now almost entirely a consultancy company. The OLD IBM is gone. Atari also still exists, you can buy PC games from them. The name continues, the company dies.

    --

    MMO Quests are like orgasms:

    You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.

    1. Re:Is it? by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      I don't think that's quite right. If anyone was an IBM stockholder in the 70s or 80s, and kept their stock until now, they won't have seen a change except in their stock's value. Sure, the company has entirely changed their business strategy, but as far as the ownership is concerned, it's the same.

      If I and a couple of buddies start a business fixing cars, and we decide there's more money in writing iPhone apps, and we transition the company over to that without changing the name, over the course of several years, that doesn't mean it's a different company, thought it may look that way if you look at two snapshots in time, before the transition and after.

  54. Try peer reviews by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 2

    Mostly, stack ranking makes employees focus on butt kissing. Reviews are subjective so the manager's favorites get the good ranking regardless of actual performance or value to the company.

    The last place I worked, we did peer reviews. Everyone ranked everyone else on their team. So butt kissing is detrimental because your co-workers may ding you for it. We had an outside consultant come in and conduct the reviews, so it would all remain anonymous. There were a few people that gave each other good reviews, but those "paired up" outlying reviews were easy to spot and were weeded out. Overall, I thought the process worked pretty well.

    1. Re:Try peer reviews by Inda · · Score: 2

      We had this at our place. I even wrote the software for it.

      The funniest thing was it was truely anonymous; not even I could tell who had reviewed who, but the amount of coffee bought for me during those few weeks made me buzz like a jackhammer. People were desperate to know who had said that one snide comment about them.

      It was dropped the year after. Probably because the boss had no way of telling who was calling him a cunt.

      It was me.

      --
      This post contains benzene, nitrosamines, formaldehyde and hydrogen cyanide.
  55. Personal Experience by Anarchduke · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I spent a year supporting Exchange Server for business/premium customers. Unlike any other place I've worked, I've never had to double-check every suggestion I get to make sure it wasn't a way of sabotaging the repair. Also, if you make a mistake, your manager will throw you under the bus. I got let go for fixing a mysterious issue with a beta installation that was causing a loop in network traffic. Why was that a mistake? Because apparently fixing a problem in beta, even if you fully document the issue, is forbidden to the support guys. Only the beta team is allowed to actually fix a problem in a beta program, even if it is at 3 am and not a single fucking member of the beta team would answer repeated calls or pages (yes, we still used pagers back then).
    But am I bitter about that? Well, yes, I kind of still am. Fuck Microsoft.

    --
    who prays for Satan? Who in 18 centuries has had the humanity to pray for the 1 sinner that needed it most? ~Mark Twain
  56. Out of curiosity ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    What do other big name companies like Apple and Google do in place of stack ranking?

  57. Re:PC Market by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    to BEAT... have DELIVERY... got CLOSE... completely MISSED...

    OMG, he's channeling APK... And I'm fresh out of silver bullets...

  58. So - Microsoft needs to collapse by Kupfernigk · · Score: 1, Redundant
    Basically you are saying that too much concentration of resources and money has found its way to Redmond, which has now moved from a growth mindset to a protective mindset so that it can no longer use the talents of creative people.

    You are right: it needs to fail or be broken up. As does HP. In any pyramid management system, the layer above is frantically trying to keep down the layer below. Consultants develop clever schemes that are supposed to prevent this, but the vested interests are such that they get circumvented. The only answer is to remove the top layers of the pyramid, where the ossification is heaviest, and set the layers below adrift to sink or swim.

    Of course this doesn't suit the stock market, the banks or the institutional investors, but I would have thought by now we would have realised that what is good for them is bad for the 99%. Germany's strength is that it has many, many middle sized companies run by people who are experts in their business. The USA used to have that.

    --
    From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
  59. Printers and PCs by Kupfernigk · · Score: 1
    You missed the bit where they hived off the printers and sold the PC division. catmistake doesn't seem to know about that or (s)he would know they also had troubles in the 2000s. Talking once to a senior manager of Lexmark, he recalled how before the split it was almost impossible to get a new model out because just about everybody with a c-level post anywhere in IBM had to sign off on it. The same with PCs, which could be blocked by the minicomputer division who did not want competition. In the end, IBM realised that making PCs did not really make any actual money and involved them with Microsoft in ways they preferred not to be.

    Now IBM is basically back to being the old IBM - a company that makes unstoppable mainframes and markets a range of software and consultancy services around them.

    --
    From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
  60. Steve Ballmer by biancmb · · Score: 0

    Steve Ballmer is an angry boxer, not a CEO

  61. Getting rid of employees is the point by beachdog · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Writing computer software and doing things in the computer business has a huge labour content. It has been really difficult (in the past) to figure out how long a software project would take. Projects have been repeatedly dumped because there have been volcanic explosions as new, startlingly cheap and stunningly attractive technologies have replaced the beautifully crafted heavy metal business machines and software of the last decades.

    Stack ranking is an ugly way to force employee turnover.

    So I propose what is going on at Microsoft is that Stack Ranking is Microsoft's way of forcing employee turnover. The business idea is "manage the company to reduce costs before the employee has a future interest or stake in the company".

    There is a theme of love-it/hate-it between American big businesses and American workers. Consider General Motors. In the late 1950's General Motors began paying a pretty good wage to it's unionized labour force. By the 1990's the result was a lot of automobile workers that needed their benefits (working on an assembly line is physically demanding, over 20 years) and an entire manufacturing and marketing structure that spiraled downward when gasoline prices went past what was it ... $2 dollars a gallon?

    The shifts in market are much faster in the computer software and hardware business. There is no union and no guarantee of continuing employment these days. So in this setting, labour is a commodity but what the labour produces is extremely difficult to measure. Into the fog of software and support Stack Ranking is not-unfair to the lucky 9/10 of the employees.

  62. Then how does Mr. Ballmer still have HIS job? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    See subject - he's blown it many times and has HIS job!

  63. "No Contest" by Alfie Kohn by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    For an in-depth thoroughly researched critique of competition in Western culture, I recommend the book "No Contest" by Alfie Kohn.
    Thumbnail: there are 4 myths about competition

    1) It's innate.
    2) It builds character. (I'm looking at you, OJ. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_professional_sportspeople_convicted_of_crimes )
    3) It's fun.
    4) It makes for the highest levels of productivity.

    Stack ranking seems to thoroughly disprove 3 and 4, and doesn't support 2. No one's raised 1 yet, but give it time.
    http://www.shareintl.org/archives/cooperation/co_nocontest.htm

  64. Actually, you hit it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Microsoft was never a great technology company. It dominated because Gates and others were innovators in the business side of things. They took FUD, which IBM had used successfully for decades, to an entirely new level. As you say, just the mere mention that MS was thinking of entering a field would scatter any potential competitors.

    Another innovation was Office: bundle together a bunch of applications so that individual applications can't really compete: the office suite is cheaper and better integrated than their competitors could be. Another innovation was bundling agreements with manufacturers, wedging their way into the corporate infrastructure, and the list goes on. MS was very innovative at business practices, not so much at technology. (As a famous quote went something like, "Imagine your head is in a vise and it's squeezed until you can't stand it anymore. Then one more turn of the screw. That's what it feels like to compete with Microsoft.")

    The problem is, once you have a company leadership that's made up of Alpha Males who crush the competition, what's to stop them from turning against internal competition?

    The good news for Microsoft fans is that FUD is back. The surface was announced and shown and no one knows when it will be ready, how much it will cost, nor even its features. At a North-Korean-style "hands-on" demo the prototypes were yanked out of journalist's hands if they tried to use it too heavily. The trademark part of the device -- the keyboard/cover -- was not hooked up to any devices so that journalists would try them. And a boatload of fans are holding off on purchases of competing devices (that are shipping) because of something coming Real Soon Now.

    Heck, Google did the same thing: show off some glasses that will be sold only to developers, who won't get them for over six months. Yet we have fans saving up their money and talking about "fully functioning prototypes".

    If FUD makes a comeback, Microsoft will have everything in the bag.

  65. Re:PC Market by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    More like the anti-apk, not enough randomly bolded words and ascii art arrows and lines.

    Not only that, APK would stop sucking microsoft's juuuust dick long enough to say "but, how can I change the hosts file on my iPad??! This thing is crap!" Though once he finished up, he'd probably start a tirade about how Apple won't let him optimize other apps memory usage on the iPad or sell his tool to hide running programs from the user (which is totally not a malware rootkit like when sony put out a malware rootkit that hid running apps from the user!)

  66. I guess they never got Demming. by stuffduff · · Score: 1

    Demming's story in an interesting one, but unfortunately it has never been well understood here in the USA. Here we seem to think that 'blame' and 'scapegoats' are the best tools. It is really a shame.

    --
    "Can there be a Klein bottle that is an efficient and effective beer pitcher?"
    1. Re:I guess they never got Demming. by lpq · · Score: 2

      It's not just about blame and scapegoats -- it's about a system that takes
      some percentage of the best, then ranks them from high to loser.

      That loser is still higher than 70% of the population...That's the insane part...

      The people you higher for being in the top 30%, or top 10...whatever your
      company aims at -- they don't want to suddenly be in a dog-eat-dog ratings game where work doesn't matter, but perceptions do...

      All of silicon valley operated this way, Microsoft was an exception before the Balmer decade?...

  67. The Stumbling Swami by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    Read Cringley on IBM. Winter is coming.

    If you "read Cringley" on Apple, as an investor you would have been skewed.

    I'd buy stock against Cringley's dire warnings any day of the week.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  68. Re:PC Market by symbolset · · Score: 1

    This is going to be interesting. Samsung alone has more than enough resources to take on the entire Windows PC industry. The conversion is already happening. Ditching PCs may not be up to them.

    --
    Help stamp out iliturcy.
  69. sounds like it would make for a great movie plot! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Pirates of Silicon Valley 2!

  70. stack rank is not their only problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They also built a culture on 'good enough, cheap enough, soon enough', which was fine when the competition was late and expensive, if excellent. But the industry now expects excellent, on-time, and on-price. The culture is matches a market that doesn't exist.

    They also believe everything has to be Windows, which is a tired platform - and name - with no 'sparkle'. As a result, they fail to capitalize on other successes (e.g. the XBox, or the once-dominance of IE).

    They are led by a *salesman*. Salesmen always want 'the same, only faster and cheaper'. Ballmer is killing a once-great company; why they keep him is a mystery.

    And now they have persuaded another drowning company to join them, so they can drown together, dear me.