Gartner Says 3D Printers Will Cost Less Than $2,000 By 2016

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Gartner Says 3D Printers Will Cost Less Than $2,000 By 2016

Posted by samzenpus on Thursday March 28, 2013 @04:25PM from the get-you-one dept.

colinneagle writes "Widespread adoption of 3D printing technology may not be that far away, according to a Gartner report predicting that enterprise-class 3D printers will be available for less than $2,000 by 2016. 3D printers are already in use among many businesses, from manufacturing to pharmaceuticals to consumers goods, and have generated a diverse set of use cases. As a result, the capabilities of the technology have evolved to meet customer needs, and will continue to develop to target those in additional markets, Gartner says."

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Wow by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 16:38 · Score: 1

People would actually pay for reports which is just some wild-ass prediction? Wow, I know what field I should move into. My wild-ass predictions are buy one, get one free, a much better offer.
1. Re:Wow by Hal_Porter · 2013-03-28 16:42 · Score: 3, Insightful
  
  Put your prices up. Wild-ass predictions are obviously a Veblen Good
  
  --
  echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
2. Re:Wow by icebike · 2013-03-28 17:00 · Score: 2, Informative
  
  Gartner is actually correct, if not late to the party.
  You can already find them on line for under $1000. Serious ones for under 2000 are easy to find.
  Does Gartner not know about Google?
  
  --
  Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
3. Re:Wow by froggymana · 2013-03-28 18:49 · Score: 4, Informative
  
  I think the keyword you missed was "enterprise class", implying that its prints will be of higher quality. Or that it has a voice module and regular printer attached to spew our corporate bullshit and white papers.
  
  --
  "To prevent this day from getting any worse, I'll just read ERROR as GOOD THING" 1GJU8xLuDKDxEs4KLf8fAGyptoDsqvEsBT
4. Re:Wow by sincewhen · 2013-03-28 18:50 · Score: 4, Informative
  
  Gartner don't know a fucking thing except how to sell useless and obvious information to businesses.
  
  --
  -- Braden's law of data: All data spends some of its lifetime in an excel spreadsheet.
5. Re:Wow by mwvdlee · 2013-03-28 19:48 · Score: 5, Funny
  
  An "enterprise class" 3D printer is one that will be able to make 3D models from descriptions such as "synergetic, cloud-integrated proactive out-of-the-box social media mindshare ". It will be able to take corporate bullshit as valid input and turn it into accurate 3D models. Essentially it just prints a hardcoded model of a dildo every time.
  
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  Slashdot social media options: AIM, ICQ, Yahoo, Jabber and Mobile Text. Why no MySpace?
6. Re: Wow by Maxx169 · 2013-03-28 20:05 · Score: 2
  
  Needs more xml
7. Re:Wow by lxs · 2013-03-28 20:11 · Score: 1
  
  The better hobby printers already desktop Stratasys models in quality. I would imagine that enterprise quality printers are a lot less fiddly in their use though. (and a cartridge will cost ten times what a roll of ABS currently costs.)
8. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 20:35 · Score: 0
  
  Since when you have to worry about cost of "Enterprise" grade stuff?
  No doubt the consumable is going to cost an arm and a leg.
  For a while there, I thought it would be USS Enterprise 3D printers aka "Replicators"... :P
  Oh yeah. They have out grown the need for currencies and probably no copyright laws by then.
9. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 20:58 · Score: 0
  
  Wake me up when they have the 3d biological ones that can do Milla Jovovich like in the 5th Element.
10. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 21:19 · Score: 0
  
  No, it will just add an RJ45 port
  That, and a 3D scanner
11. Re:Wow by gl4ss · 2013-03-28 21:33 · Score: 2
  
  they said enterprise class.
  basically, if you have to put 3d printers into two classes and one of them is enterprise then FDM(the usual home) or resin based systems wouldn't be it.
  enterprise class would be objet/polyjet style machines or laser sintering machines.
  neither of which will be under 2k in 3 years. unfortunately.
  
  --
  world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.
12. Re:Wow by gelfling · 2013-03-29 00:08 · Score: 1
  
  Gartner knows what Microsoft tells them to know.
13. Re:Wow by lxs · 2013-03-29 00:13 · Score: 1
  
  My printer can do that.
  Of course the reproduction isn't perfect yet, but I'm getting there.
14. Re:Wow by Rotag_FU · 2013-03-29 02:03 · Score: 1
  
  You were on the right track with the voice module aspect, but went off the track with the white papers and corporate BS. "Enterprise class" means a 3D printer that is used in a ship like the USS Enterprise. This means that Gartner is predicting that we will have sub $2000 replicators. You are correct that a voice module is required for this technology, specifically one that uses Majel Barret's voice.
  I know, I know ... you are saying to yourself, but the Enterprise is a Galaxy class starship. Shouldn't this be a "Galaxy class" 3D printer? I would agree with you, but again this is Gartner, you can't expect them to get it completely right.
15. Re:Wow by Jedi+Alec · 2013-03-29 02:06 · Score: 1
  
  Will the dildo have varying sizes and colors dependant on the input?
  Because I can imagine so many situations where forcibly inserting an accurate representation of a cock-up would serve as a valuable lesson.
  Well worth the money.
  
  --
  
  People replying to my sig annoy me. That's why I change it all the time.
16. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 02:28 · Score: 0
  
  I want to tell you all about an invention that will revolutionize the business world. That invention is the Com-put-or.
  (From NewsRadio)
17. Re:Wow by jythie · 2013-03-29 03:40 · Score: 1
  
  When you need to plan years or even decades ahead, yes. Though there is usually more behind it then WAGs.
18. Re:Wow by Maxo-Texas · 2013-03-29 04:17 · Score: 2
  
  No, no... the voice module on an enterprise class printer allows you to say
  "Make it so!"
  
  --
  She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
19. Re:Wow by WindBourne · 2013-03-29 04:51 · Score: 1
  
  Gartner's reports have always been useless. recall back in 94 when they produced a report that said Linux would be at least 2% of all internet servers by the end of the decade when it was already over 25%? It made it look like Linux would never threaten Windows, when in fact, they were already a massive threat.
  Basically Gartner will do reports to make things look like however some large company wants. Even now, this is likely meant to slow down MarketBot and other's inroad into corporate desktop while some company like HP, IBM, or MS continue to develop their own printers.
  
  --
  I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
20. Re:Wow by ThreeGigs · 2013-03-29 05:03 · Score: 1
  
  Enterprise class simply means:
  PC LOAD PLASTIC
  will be displayed at random intervals.
21. Re:Wow by lgw · 2013-03-29 05:12 · Score: 1
  
  Still upset about one Gartner report from 20 years ago? And convinced it's all a conspiracy to keep the little guy down? Sad, man, just sad. But I'm sure this is the year of Linux on the desktop, this time for sure!
  
  --
  Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
22. Re:Wow by samkass · 2013-03-29 06:14 · Score: 1
  
  It's a little silly to arbitrarily say something is "enterprise class" isn't it? InvisAlign has been using resin-laser printers to print molds for their aligners since 1999 and prints tens of thousands of unique pieces of plastic a day. It's really about what it lets you do. I think a better distinction is probably "prototyping class" versus "manufacturing class". A $2200 Replicator 2 is a fantastic prototyping, modeling, replacement part, artwork machine, but it's probably not going to be part of an assembly line anytime soon. Those will certainly be under $2K within the next couple years. On the other hand the mass-production ones are still tens of thousands of dollars and will probably take another decade to get down in price.
  
  --
  E pluribus unum
23. Re:Wow by static0verdrive · 2013-03-29 06:59 · Score: 1
  
  Not that wild. This is the stupidest thing I've read on Slashdot ever, considering they already cost less than $2000: http://www.robo3dprinter.com/
  
  Open source too ;)
  
  +300 mods points!
  
  --
  ========
  77 77 77 2e 6d 65 6c 76 69 6e 73 2e 63 6f 6d
24. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 08:28 · Score: 0
  
  So it only works with the copy of Microsoft Windows 7 "Enterprise Edition" I downloaded last year?
Skynet and Graham Cairnes-Smith by Hal_Porter · 2013-03-28 16:39 · Score: 2

It's interesting how much of the technology for Skynet is being built by humans as tools.
It's very reminiscent of this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_Cairns-Smith

In simplified form, this is the clay hypothesis: Clays form naturally from silicates in solution. Clay crystals, as other crystals, preserve their external formal arrangement as they grow, snap, and grow further. Clay crystal masses of a particular external form may happen to affect their environment in ways that affect their chances of further replication. For example, a 'stickier' clay crystal is more likely to silt a stream bed, creating an environment conducive to further sedimentation. It is conceivable that such effects could extend to the creation of flat areas likely to be exposed to air, dry, and turn to wind-borne dust, which could fall randomly in other streams. Thus - by simple, inorganic, physical processes - a selection environment might exist for the reproduction of clay crystals of the 'stickier' shape.
There follows a process of natural selection for clay crystals that trap certain forms of molecules to their surfaces (those that enhance their replication potential). Quite complex proto-organic molecules can be catalysed by the surface properties of silicates. The final step occurs when these complex molecules perform a 'Genetic Takeover' from their clay 'vehicle', becoming an independent locus of replication - an evolutionary moment that might be understood as the first exaptation.
Despite its frequent citation as a useful model of the kind of process that might have been involved in the prehistory of DNA, the 'clay hypothesis' of abiogenesis is not so popular, as with several other abiogenesis hypotheses. As it was current and fashionable at that time, Richard Dawkins used it as the example model of abiogenesis in his 1986 book The Blind Watchmaker.
Dawkins poetically talks of a future "robot Cairns-Smith" working out that life has gone from being silicon based to carbon based and back again and each transition has vastly increased the speed at which it can develop. I.e. from the pseudo heredity of clay based 'life' to DNA protein based life and Darwinian evolution and finally to machines which understand themselves enough to far outpace pure Darwinian evolution by designing their successors.
Actually if we do get herded into camps by murderous AI this sort of idea would be a great deal of comfort to me.

--
echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
Yeah... but what will that 2k get me? by mark-t · 2013-03-28 16:40 · Score: 1

If it only gets me something with clunky 0.2mm resolution or worse... meh.
I want something that is precise enough to print detailed D&D miniatures and creatures, which means that the smallest details need to be in the neighborhood of about 20microns or so.

--
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
1. Re:Yeah... but what will that 2k get me? by suutar · 2013-03-28 16:56 · Score: 2
  
  that's some serious detail. I'd have thought 200 microns would be good enough. though admittedly I haven't actually gotten one printed yet; it may suck after all.
2. Re:Yeah... but what will that 2k get me? by bmcage · 2013-03-28 20:39 · Score: 5, Interesting
  
  I print quality D&D miniatures with my Makerbot Replicator. That's with 0.125 mm layers. If you give it an acetone vapour bath, they are smooth too. Problem with additive layer however is not quality of these prints, it is the impossibility to print overhang, what you need for nice feet, hands sticking out, ... . So that is the problem, not the layer thickness. The stereographic prints might fix this, or two material print with one material that dissolves in water. I can't print dual head two materials on my Replicator on 0.125 layers, nor can I do it as nicely as needed on thicker prints.
  Oh, and this replicator was less than 2000$.
3. Re:Yeah... but what will that 2k get me? by Dekker3D · 2013-03-28 20:59 · Score: 2
  
  I regularly print at 0.1 mm layer height, and generally find that it could be better. If I had the patience for it, I'd go for 0.05 or 0.025.
4. Re:Yeah... but what will that 2k get me? by braindrainbahrain · 2013-03-29 00:12 · Score: 1
  
  If it only gets me something with clunky 0.2mm resolution or worse... meh.
  I want something that is precise enough to print detailed D&D miniatures and creatures, which means that the smallest details need to be in the neighborhood of about 20microns or so.
  Maybe this is what you are looking for?
  http://www.sandboxr.com/
  I am not associated with either sandboxr or kickstarter.
5. Re:Yeah... but what will that 2k get me? by LordNimon · 2013-03-29 00:36 · Score: 2
  
  Where do you get the plans for those miniatures? I was thinking about doing the same thing.
  
  --
  And the men who hold high places must be the ones who start
  To mold a new reality... closer to the heart
6. Re:Yeah... but what will that 2k get me? by mark-t · 2013-03-29 04:53 · Score: 1
  
  That's cute, but the printing technology for that looks still way too course for very finely detailed miniatures.
  
  --
  File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
7. Re:Yeah... but what will that 2k get me? by suutar · 2013-03-29 05:27 · Score: 1
  
  That's pretty sweet. I see you use a reprap-type printer. What modelling software do you use? For character setup I like daz studio or poser but those are both designed for rendering, not for watertight solids, and my attempts to come up with something to generate a real solid have been... less than effective so far.
8. Re:Yeah... but what will that 2k get me? by Dekker3D · 2013-03-29 05:33 · Score: 1
  
  I use Blender for anything organic or smooth, or anything that can be done with a bit of simple vertex-pushing. I might look into Openscad for customizable or technical designs, or Sketchup for anything architectural that doesn't have to be very precise.
  There's also tools for repairing STL files. You should ask on #reprap on freenode IRC about it. I don't need it very much, forgot the name.
9. Re:Yeah... but what will that 2k get me? by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 05:56 · Score: 0
  
  Where do you get the plans for those miniatures? I was thinking about doing the same thing.
  The easiest way is to go pirate yourself a copy of something like AutoCAD, which will let you create plot files for damn near any type of printer, plotter, 3D printer, etc.
10. Re:Yeah... but what will that 2k get me? by bmcage · 2013-04-04 21:38 · Score: 1
  
  Where do you get the plans for those miniatures? I was thinking about doing the same thing.
  Not easy to find miniatures that print nice on current printers, that is, miniatures with no difficult overhang or holes. Pocket-dungeon on thingiverse is good though, and made for printers: http://www.thingiverse.com/dutchmogul/designs They overcome overhang problem by using heavily robes around the legs little facial detail (nose and such), and cutting of the designs requiring glueing them. I print ABS and want to try vapour acetone treatment on prints next.
3D printers will not be popular at any price by iamhassi · 2013-03-28 16:41 · Score: 0

Lets be honest, we barely use our home printers. I'm glad I have it, but I bought my color laser in 2009 and have never changed the toners. I print everything to PDF. I have no desire to own a 3D printer because I see no use for it, the little models and small items I've seen people print could have been bought for a few dollars rather than buying a $2,000+ printer and the plastic it uses. If I really need a 3D model I imagine paying someone a few bucks on ebay or craiglist to print custom items. Sorry 3D printer makers, but these will always be for a very niche market, never mainstream.

--
my karma will be here long after I'm gone
1. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by khallow · 2013-03-28 17:05 · Score: 3, Insightful
  
  Lets be honest, we barely use our home printers.
  Who is "we"? I don't have a printer at all so I use it less than you do. But I know some people who print all kinds of things. Like most other activities that are optional, there are huge variations in what people do.
  
  So "let's be honest". You're not going to use a 3-D printer much. I probably won't either. But there probably will be a significant minority that prints out all kinds of things.
2. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by icebike · 2013-03-28 17:05 · Score: 4, Insightful
  
  And 640k should be enough for anyone.
  People like you predicted no on would have a use for a computer in the home.
  
  --
  Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
3. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by stms · 2013-03-28 17:12 · Score: 1
  
  I suspect you're trolling but just in case you're not. The important thing about 3D printers is not how they're currently being applied but how they could be applied. I personally have zero interest in 3D printing in it's current state. I also probably wouldn't have been interested in computers in the 80s. The thing to understand is the technology will progress to the point where you can print just about anything in a 3D printer (a car, an assault rifle, medicine or even entire buildings). At that point everything can 1. Be built for the cost of the materiel its made and 2. Can be designed in an open source fashion. This will fundamentally change the way we look at things similarly to how the internet changed the way we think about ideas.
4. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by W.+Justice+Black · 2013-03-28 17:14 · Score: 4, Insightful
  
  Waiting for it to be a service at e.g. my local Walgreen's (as lab-quality photo printing is today). Doesn't need to be in my house, just convenient.
  
  --
  "Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana." --Groucho Marx
5. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by fermion · 2013-03-28 17:15 · Score: 2
  
  I have a very good color printer. I don't use it very much anymore because printing has become much less useful in my life, and the cost in consumbles is a quarter a page. There was no subsidy in purchasing this printer, there was no idea that the profit would be made later in ink. I also have a cheap inkjet printer for when I need a page of two in color, and a high capacity multifunction BW laser printer for when I need many copies. This is the trend I see in printing. The initial novelty of color printing has worn off and we are now looking at cost.
  I think the same will happen with 3D printers. They will reach a price point where it is affordable. People will go out and buy one, they realize how much it actually costs to operate. From what I have seen is $5 per cubic inch.
  Then of course is the software. Desktop publishing realy took off when one no longer needed a $2000 mac and $500 dedicated software. Right now a $1000 computer is good enough to do design work, but the software still costs. And people are simply not used to paying $500 like we were 15 or 20 years ago. Now personal software is $100 or less, for the most part.
  But I think in a couple years this might be solved, and 3D printers will be mainstream for a while. At least many offices will have them, as well as schools. But for home use they will be no more popular than color laser printers.
  
  --
  "She's a scientist and a lesbian. She's not going to let it slide." Orphan Black
6. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by Grimbleton · 2013-03-28 17:21 · Score: 1
  
  the little models and small items I've seen people print could have been bought for a few dollars
  
  http://www.amazon.com/Chaos-Space-Marine-Terminator-Warhammer/dp/B000VT45O2
  Just picked an example at random. Just a few dollars?
7. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 17:38 · Score: 0
  
  I'm not so sure about the niche market. 3D printers, even the relatively cheap open source ones that are limited to plastics, have very practical applications. For the price of a single snap-tight container from Family Dollar you can buy enough feed material to print enough for your entire family. Could print all the plastic utensils you need for social events (like holiday get togethers) as well as cups and plates, if your an over achiever you could even print one for each person with their name printed in raised lettering.
  Stop being so borishly close minded and imagine what you could do with a device that can print almost any design you throw at it, granted some things may require assembling a set of printed parts. I would love to have a 3d printer, especially having seen the things used for the mundane and exotic.
  However I'm sure all the companies out there manufacturing way overpriced plastic crap will open a holy war should the technology ever become as readily available as an inkjet printer.
8. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 17:38 · Score: 1
  
  1. It's Warhammer. That was not random.
  2. Injection molding has an extra orders of magnitude finer detail than even the best 3D printers.
  3. It's Warhammer.
  What is next, you point to an iPhone when someone says you can buy a cheap flip phone for 20 bucks?
9. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by ArsonSmith · 2013-03-28 17:53 · Score: 0
  
  It's always interesting to read the views of a Luddite that has no vision. Seeing a tech for what it currently is and thinking that's all it will ever be. Sure right now it's small plastic junk, but in the future it will be metal objects then full electronics and/or anything and everything. Scaled up and down you could print medicines or sky scrapers. Hell people like you might be able to print a life. Sorry that was just mean.
  
  --
  Paying taxes to buy civilization is like paying a hooker to buy love.
10. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by sanman2 · 2013-03-28 18:29 · Score: 1
  
  what about an automatic sandwich-maker?
11. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by symbolset · 2013-03-28 18:44 · Score: 1
  
  This would actually be really nice. I could see a market for this. Hey, it looks like there's a bunch of companies online that do this, and can use all sorts of materials. Neat!
  
  --
  Help stamp out iliturcy.
12. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 19:02 · Score: 0
  
  Very true. Many people have no vision, except for what is right before them. Sadly, I know a few people who are like this. Maybe, their creativity was repressed as a child and never resumed.
13. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by amber_of_luxor · 2013-03-28 19:04 · Score: 1
  
  Wait five to ten years, and most of the things Family Dollar currently sells for under ten bucks, will only be available as 3D Patterns, for ten bucks, with unlimited printings.
  If management of Sears Holdings Corporation were smart, they would:
  * Make K-Mart an offline brand. No online/non-traditional retailing allowed;
  * Rebrand all Sears Full Line stores to Big K-Mart;
  * Use the Sears name only for Catalog, Internet, TV Shopping, and Telemarketing;
  * Land's End would be a pattern company. Clothes, Home Decorating, and other patterns;
  * KMart Stores would downsize in area, and only offer 2D and 3D patterns. The only physical objects would be the media that the pattern is in/on;
  * KMart SuperCenter and Sears Grande would be merged into one chain, competing as a HyperMart, and include preprinted objects of the 3D and 2D patterns sold at K-Mart;
  
  --
  Wind Beneath Thy Wings
14. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by deesine · 2013-03-28 19:19 · Score: 2
  
  Those cost about half your income and the price of a diamond ring.
  
  --
  damaged by dogma
15. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by anethema · 2013-03-28 19:35 · Score: 5, Interesting
  
  So your point is..because paper documents have gone out of fashion...all physical objects are also useless? Or do you think paper printers aren't cheap and ubiquitous ? I built a 3D printer, and I don't print toys/models.
  I broke a wheel on my dishwasher? I just drew one up and printed it, good as new. I broke a handle on my fileting knife..I printed one nicer than the original which has a fish gut scooper on the handle. I've printed brackets for my truck, pieces for the printer itself, and if I got really enterprising, I could use the printed plastic to make a lost-plastic casting and cast myself metal versions of anything I wanted. (See here: http://3dtopo.com/lostPLA/ )
  My printer was under a thousand start to finish but that was self built so a lot more work than something you just unbox. (Mendelmax 2.0 from makerstoolworks.com if anyone cares(no affil))
  Anyways, does it make pure financial sense? Maybe, maybe not. Does the ability to make any physical object that fits within my printers dimensions within a few minutes or hours make it worth it for me? Definitely. Some things take weeks when you need them now, sometimes you need to try 10 versions of something before it would make sense to pay for a final high quality one to be made. Sometimes its an object not important enough to spend the time and money on if you need to send away for it, but it would be neat to have. There are a million reasons I think 3D printers can work for the average Joe and see regular use.
  
  --
  
  It's easier to fight for one's principles than to live up to them.
16. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by macshit · 2013-03-28 19:39 · Score: 2
  
  Lets be honest, we barely use our home printers. I'm glad I have it, but I bought my color laser in 2009 and have never changed the toners.
  Sure, but I think for many people, printers fall into the "not often needed but occasionally really nice" category.
  This would explain why the printer market has developed the way it has, with super incredibly cheap printers that quickly get expensive if you use them a lot.
  For some people, a better method of achieving this is easily availabled shared printers (e.g. there are still plenty of internet/manga cafes around here with printers, and the convenience stores all have copiers that can do printing or scanning from/to USB devices and SD cards), but especially in the sparsely populated U.S., I guess mega cheap personal printers that fall over after 10 pages are more popular...
  
  --
  We live, as we dream -- alone....
17. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 20:33 · Score: 0
  
  ... but these will always be for a very niche market ...
  
  Remember these words:
  "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- T Watson, IBM, 1943
  Everyone has data needs, which spawned the small business (IBM) computer. That plus games made the home computer. Once that technology become a household good, the internet privatized and global communications took off. With the smart phone and e-tablet, that data became portable.
  Similarly everyone has plastic kitchenware, toys, nick-nacks, etc. And plastic can't be wired/riveted together like metal/wood can, so when it breaks, one needs to buy a whole replacement. This is a problem when a discrete part like a gear wheel or control knob is the only part broken.
  I hope that 3D printers create a new class of tinker: I take my broken gearwheel to him. He does a 3D scan or downloads the specifications and then prints a new part. Repair mechanics don't need to carry inventory of spares. Plus, spare parts aren't declared 'obsolete' once the model is 2 years old.
  
  ... we barely use our home printer ...
  
  True. Because I don't have to carry a stack of paper to access my digital data. See above.
18. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 20:35 · Score: 0
  
  What about at $200? Is that low enough.
  http://www.makibox.com/details/product/A6-LT
  There are numerous companies putting out printers in the $200-$500 range. Gartner is way behind the curve, as usual.
19. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by bmcage · 2013-03-28 20:54 · Score: 5, Interesting
  
  Lets be honest, we barely use our home printers. I'm glad I have it, but I bought my color laser in 2009 and have never changed the toners. I print everything to PDF. I have no desire to own a 3D printer because I see no use for it, the little models and small items I've seen people print could have been bought for a few dollars rather than buying a $2,000+ printer and the plastic it uses. If I really need a 3D model I imagine paying someone a few bucks on ebay or craiglist to print custom items. Sorry 3D printer makers, but these will always be for a very niche market, never mainstream.
  Turn in your nerd card! You can only print stuff ordered that others designed. If you design yourself, you need to prototype. This is no different from making software versus using software. Everybody who makes software needs a device to work on, instead of only consume, everybody who makes objects needs a printer to try it on, instead of a service that delivers prints at home.
  What you claim is hence: "I don't make or design stuff, so I don't need a 3D printer." Yes, but there are many people out there that do make things, probably more than there are software coders. 3D design is also easier than programming, so schools will quicker pick this up than adding coding to the curriculum.
  This is indeed not mainstream, but most houses have kids at a certain time, so a 3D printer will be handy, and if people are fed up waiting for a package or the 3D services are not that good, buying one will be an option. In the end, it will come down to ease of use of the printer. I'm able to service my 3D printer, 95% of the population would not manage with the printers in use today. My first order to shapeways took 2 weeks before they notified it could not be printed, and refunded me. Second order took 1.5 weeks to arrive.
20. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by DKlineburg · 2013-03-28 21:15 · Score: 1
  
  I hope that 3D printers create a new class of tinker: I take my broken gearwheel to him. He does a 3D scan or downloads the specifications and then prints a new part. Repair mechanics don't need to carry inventory of spares. Plus, spare parts aren't declared 'obsolete' once the model is 2 years old.
  But i think your saying that not everyone will have them. Only some will.
  
  --
  Memory is deceptive because it is colored by today's events. - Albert Einstein
21. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 21:56 · Score: 0
  
  ...and millions of Scientologists to be your friends.
22. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by peragrin · 2013-03-28 22:26 · Score: 1
  
  Yea but you get a free dishwasher, and clothes washer too.
  
  --
  i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
23. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by DrXym · 2013-03-29 00:01 · Score: 1
  
  Perhaps you should look at the quality and finish that most 3D plastic nozzle based printers achieve. It's awful. I also expect a lot of people would have a thing about eating off plastic plates especially ones where the uneven surface pattern ensures the accumulation of food particles and the cutlery and washing puts ugly scratches all over it in no time.
24. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by PSVMOrnot · 2013-03-29 00:01 · Score: 1
  
  Sorry 3D printer makers, but these will always be for a very niche market, never mainstream.
  I imagine much the same was said back when Wozniak was working on the Apple I and Apple II computers
  Sure, while it's still a fernickerty process requiring some skill it'll be niche. When it's developed to be quicker, reliable and more accessible then I think we'll see them becoming more mainstream.
25. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by bluefoxlucid · 2013-03-29 01:05 · Score: 1
  
  So throw away the entire appliance market, glassware market, automotive technology market, video games market etc media market, fine clothing market--Lands' End isn't just style, but actually well-made clothes unlike the garbage from Wal-Mart that falls apart first washing--and change their entire business model to "Plastic Shit for Rednecks"? Because K-Mart says "fat slob shop here" and Sears kind of says "stuck-up, haughty salesmen who think they're better than you trying to sell you rich-boy shit."
  
  --
  Support my political activism on Patreon.
26. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by bluefoxlucid · 2013-03-29 01:11 · Score: 1
  
  Why not teach the 3D printer to extrude wax????
  
  --
  Support my political activism on Patreon.
27. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by Conspiracy_Of_Doves · 2013-03-29 01:18 · Score: 1
  
  Isn't that what "niche market" means?
  
  --
  
  Technoli
28. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by RabidReindeer · 2013-03-29 01:28 · Score: 1
  
  Waiting for it to be a service at e.g. my local Walgreen's (as lab-quality photo printing is today). Doesn't need to be in my house, just convenient.
  That actually might be a double-plus for them. Get rid of the cheap plastic gimmicks that they sell and put some 3-D printers there. With quick-access buttons to print out the cheap plastic gimmicks.
  No need for inventory or shipping them in from China!
29. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by mhajicek · 2013-03-29 01:37 · Score: 1
  
  There are several services that will print and ship what you upload.
30. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by GLMDesigns · 2013-03-29 02:02 · Score: 1
  
  How about a hardware store printing parts? Parts for cars, hot water heaters, everything, can be printed locally. This will revolutionize things. Now, we're not there yet but 20 years ago nobody thought that soon a phone would fit in your pocket and would also be a TV, a computer, a portable "cassette" player, a photo album, a game boy ...
  
  3D printing is going to change manufacturing and distribution of parts.
  
  --
  If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
  Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
31. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by khallow · 2013-03-29 02:17 · Score: 1
  
  No. For example, if 90% of all man-made things you touch are now made via 3-D printers, it'd be way too large to be considered niche. But it could still be low usage among people in general. Alternately, its use could be widespread, like regular printers. Do we say that laser printers serve only a "niche market"?
32. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by foniksonik · 2013-03-29 03:23 · Score: 1
  
  Just recycle. They'll be brand new every time.
  
  --
  A fool throws a stone into a well and a thousand sages can not remove it.
33. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by 3dr · 2013-03-29 03:44 · Score: 1
  
  Re: the comment about "$5 per cubic inch". I just calculated the material cost of a calibration object of volume 4cm^3, with a fairly moderate infill. On my printer it consumed 3g of plastic, which costs $40/kg. This object cost $0.12 in plastic, or about $0.03/cm^3. Continuing.... 1 cubic inch is 16.4 cm^3, or an equivalent cost of about $0.49. Five dollars is a bit high for a personal machine cost, even including the electricity.
  Printing services will double or triple the material cost to account for waste & setup and include machine time in the price. With triple material charges, the above object would be $1.50, and it would take about 10 minutes at $0.15/min ($1.50). This is a total cost of $3.00 for an object of this size, in plastic.
34. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by foniksonik · 2013-03-29 03:50 · Score: 1
  
  When it becomes an appliance it will be mainstream. Prior to that it will continue to be something for enthusiasts, artists, home professionals and made to order providers.
  To be an appliance it will need to have a catalog of stock products. The expensive versions will have customization options and use more expensive or better quality materials and higher quality output. Very likely it will not allow original creations though there will be hacks to enable it (rootkits) - think mobile devices and media players. There will still be a market for enthusiast machines of course but they will be more expensive (still less than today's prices).
  
  --
  A fool throws a stone into a well and a thousand sages can not remove it.
35. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 04:23 · Score: 0
  
  But but but the future and stuff!
36. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by jehan60188 · 2013-03-29 04:30 · Score: 1
  
  they already have injection molding machines that do that; they've had that for decades (since the 90s at least)
  i remember going to brookfield zoo, and having a gorilla made to order in '90 and then again in '03
  i could probably go and get another one once the zoo opens
37. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by G00F · 2013-03-29 04:42 · Score: 1
  
  Yea but you get a free dishwasher, and clothes washer too.
  Still using the old dishwasher, clothes washer, and sandwich-maker as before with only the cost of most of my income and diamond ring. . . .
  
  --
  The spirit of resistance to government is so valuable on certain occasions that I wish it to be always kept alive
38. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by ducomputergeek · 2013-03-29 06:06 · Score: 2
  
  Nerd that works in the fashion industry here, funny story on that one, but any rate we just bought a mid-range 3d printer. Reason, so the fashion designer could create 3D models of button designs and with a little paint get an idea of how it would look on a design sample. From there you can make a casting for a mold to send to a metal or glass maker to make the real thing. Right now we're making a little extra because other area designers are coming in to use it to prototype things like jewelry, belt buckle designs, etc.. I'm sure in a couple years they might have their own, but these are generally creative people. But they all seem to use Autocad.
  
  --
  "The problem with socialism is eventually you run out of other people's money" - Thatcher.
39. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 06:38 · Score: 0
  
  And 640k should be enough for anyone.
  People like you predicted no on would have a use for a computer in the home.
  And thin clients are the wave of the future.
  People like you predicted we'd all be using virtual reality to access cyberspace by now.
  If you have nothing to add to the conversation but an ad hominem, icebike, just sit down and shut up.
40. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by icebike · 2013-03-29 06:54 · Score: 1
  
  Thanks for proving me right.
  Thin clients are everywhere. EVERY-Friggen-WHERE!!!
  Hint: Check your Smartphone or Tablet. Check out Google Drive, SkyDrive, Dropbox. Thin clients morphed while you were asleep.
  And Google Glass is already being heavily developed even when its not out of beta yet.
  Time to wake up from your long winter's nap AC, and stop telling other people to shut up until you get a clue. Final products don't always look like the speculative products. 3D printers won't always be making toys. They will probably be making our clothing, and there may well be one in every closet/laundry room which could pop out a new shirt on demand (custom tailored), and recycle the old ones.
  Don't be such a box-thinker.
  
  --
  Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
41. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by RabidReindeer · 2013-03-29 07:42 · Score: 2
  
  they already have injection molding machines that do that; they've had that for decades (since the 90s at least)
  i remember going to brookfield zoo, and having a gorilla made to order in '90 and then again in '03
  i could probably go and get another one once the zoo opens
  They've had them at rest stops on the Florida Turnpike since it was built (1960's, I think). I believe they had them at the local zoo, at least for a while.
  But there's an essential difference. The injection molding machines each have the ability to manufacture ONE thing, which is whatever the dies installed on it shaped. And due to their construction, they made objects that were mostly hollow.
  An actual 3D printer can make anything that you can provide viable blueprints for, hollow or not, subject to the limitations of color, material and topology.
  Plus, the idea here was that the same machine could print both commercial product and walk-in projects.
42. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by anethema · 2013-03-29 08:07 · Score: 1
  
  Lost PLA works just as well, but yes printers can extrude wax. There have been DIY versions, and there are commercial ones as well. Shapeways uses commercial wax printers to do lost wax casts of prints commercially. Just upload your file to em and they will give you a silver version of your file !
  
  --
  
  It's easier to fight for one's principles than to live up to them.
43. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 12:31 · Score: 0
  
  But i think your saying that not everyone will have them. Only some will.
  The same could be said about TVs, Blueray players, Cars, etc.
44. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 12:44 · Score: 0
  
  Lets be honest, we barely use our home printers. I'm glad I have it, but I bought my color laser in 2009 and have never changed the toners. I print everything to PDF. I have no desire to own a 3D printer because I see no use for it, the little models and small items I've seen people print could have been bought for a few dollars rather than buying a $2,000+ printer and the plastic it uses. If I really need a 3D model I imagine paying someone a few bucks on ebay or craiglist to print custom items. Sorry 3D printer makers, but these will always be for a very niche market, never mainstream.
  ... and back in the 1950's or 1960's one IBM Exec. said there was a market for maybe five or six computers world-wide.
  Sorry grandpa, but things change.
  If something like Moore's Law applies to 3d printers in regards to speed/quality and price over time you may even see a majority owning a 3D printer.
  On average it takes something like 20 years for a completely new type of product to go mainstream [think: radio, TV, desktop computers, cassette players, horseless carriages ;) ]
45. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by Grimbleton · 2013-03-29 14:47 · Score: 1
  
  Oh gosh you got me, one of the most likely type of "little model" to be printed is irrelevant to the discussion.
46. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by bluefoxlucid · 2013-04-01 00:04 · Score: 1
  
  Recycling PLA is harder, though. The polymer chains are permanently shortened, and you need to either heat or chemically dissolve the material and then re-extrude it. Wax works great in a hopper pot and is infinitely reusable and cheap.
  
  --
  Support my political activism on Patreon.
47. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by iamhassi · 2013-04-09 07:01 · Score: 1
  
  And 640k should be enough for anyone.
  People like you predicted no on would have a use for a computer in the home.
  By that logic every new gadget will be in billions of homes and offices. Who marked this as insightful? It's trolling.
  
  --
  my karma will be here long after I'm gone
48. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by iamhassi · 2013-04-09 07:11 · Score: 1
  
  I suspect you're trolling but just in case you're not. The important thing about 3D printers is not how they're currently being applied but how they could be applied. I personally have zero interest in 3D printing in it's current state. I also probably wouldn't have been interested in computers in the 80s. The thing to understand is the technology will progress to the point where you can print just about anything in a 3D printer (a car, an assault rifle, medicine or even entire buildings). At that point everything can 1. Be built for the cost of the materiel its made and 2. Can be designed in an open source fashion. This will fundamentally change the way we look at things similarly to how the internet changed the way we think about ideas.
  I suspect you're trolling, to assume consumer or even pro-sumer 3D printers will eventually be printing cars or (LOL!) building. By that logic we should all be printing magazines and giant posters from our walmart inkjet printers. Sure, technically you can, but you'll get a better quality poster for $5 from walmart than what you could print at home with a average inkjet and photo inks and taping a dozen pages together.
  
  Will there be 3D printers that print buildings? Of course, just like there's printers that print professional magazines and beautiful posters, but you don't find those for sale at your average office supply store, and they're not affordable for the average SOHO, it's cheaper to pay someone else to print those things for you which is what I said in parent: "If I really need a 3D model I imagine paying someone a few bucks on ebay or craiglist to print custom items."
  
  --
  my karma will be here long after I'm gone
49. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by iamhassi · 2013-04-09 07:15 · Score: 1
  
  omg you found the one exception, i guess that makes my entire argument invalid, because you found a plastic figurine that is being sold by one store for $20
  
  --
  my karma will be here long after I'm gone
50. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by anethema · 2013-04-10 15:06 · Score: 1
  
  Lost wax, like PLA, is generally just burned away out of the mold. You just blow the ashes out. Recycling in this case isn't the main concern.
  
  --
  
  It's easier to fight for one's principles than to live up to them.
51. Re:3D printers will not be popular at any price by bluefoxlucid · 2013-04-10 17:04 · Score: 1
  
  True, but wax is also a lot cheaper.
  
  --
  Support my political activism on Patreon.
OK, by no-body · 2013-03-28 16:41 · Score: 2

How about the ink? Probably the same game as with current printer ink cartridges - ongoing profit maker...ripoff

Questionable if it's fair right now and in future???
1. Re:OK, by fustakrakich · 2013-03-28 16:59 · Score: 1
  
  Well, let's hope they start producing laser 3D printers soon. They'll be much more economical to operate. I'll be real impressed when we can print with a MIG welder, and build real metal pieces.
  
  --
  “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
2. Re:OK, by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 18:40 · Score: 0
  
  It's why I don't have a printer at all. I refuse to pay the extortion ink prices. Doesn't make any sense to own one, unless you're printing a lot of material regularly (which isn't really necessary any longer).
3. Re:OK, by bmcage · 2013-03-28 20:57 · Score: 1
  
  How about the ink? Probably the same game as with current printer ink cartridges - ongoing profit maker...ripoff Questionable if it's fair right now and in future???
  That's the great thing, make your own, or buy a device that makes it: http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/833191773/filastruder-a-robust-inexpensive-filament-extruder
4. Re:OK, by Dekker3D · 2013-03-28 21:02 · Score: 2
  
  FDM printers can already be had for less than $1000, and I built my own Mendel90 for about 500 euros. The PLA I use cost 32 euros per 2.3 kg, although it's a pretty cheap type. Been using it for a while now, still haven't run out. And even if I did find myself lacking material, I could chuck all my failed prints into a filabot or something and recycle it.
5. Re:OK, by sonamchauhan · 2013-03-28 21:31 · Score: 1
  
  The real advance will be ultrasonic welding of metallic-glass beads.
  I'm serious :)
6. Re:OK, by trout007 · 2013-03-29 01:08 · Score: 1
  
  I use an Objet which is like an inkjet printer but uses UV cured epoxy. A 3 kg cartridge is about $1500. Plus you need support material so maybe double that cost.
  
  --
  I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
7. Re:OK, by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 06:16 · Score: 0
  
  Already exists.. SLA/SLM/SLA/DMLS/etc. are laser 3D printing processes...
8. Re:OK, by bobbutts · 2013-03-29 06:43 · Score: 1
  
  I have been using these, makes the cost negligible. There always seems to be something similar on slickdeals.net http://slickdeals.net/f/5936528-10-pack-Canon-PGI-225-CLI-226-Compatible-Inkjet-Cartridges-w-Chip-7-41-2-42-4-99-SH
  TonerDeal via Amazon has dropped their price on a 10-pack of Canon compatible PGI-225/CLI-226 inkjet cartridges to $2.42 plus $4.99 S&H. (Avgs out @ $3.71/5-pack or about $0.74/cart shipped.)
  
  With each 10-pack order, you'll receive:
  
  Qty.2 - PGI-225 Black (PGBK)
  Qty.2 - CLI-226 Black (BK)
  Qty.2 - CLI-226 Cyan (C)
  Qty.2 - CLI-226 Magenta (M)
  Qty.2 - CLI-226 Yellow (Y)
  
  Good reviews on Amazon (rated 4 out of 5 stars). According to the product specs, these (Canon) compatible ink cartridges are ISO-9001 certified remanufactured inkjet cartridges.
Plastic stuff? by DogDude · 2013-03-28 16:53 · Score: 1, Interesting

I can't imagine needing a lot of poor quality plastic bits for anything. If I need any now, it's much cheaper and easier to buy them from China.

--
I don't respond to AC's.
1. Re:Plastic stuff? by Mordok-DestroyerOfWo · 2013-03-28 19:10 · Score: 2
  
  Things I have printed on my Prusa...wall mountable backplates for my 6 monitors, table stand for my Nexus 7, clips for freezer bags, a bobble-head version of me (we scanned our faces in grad school). If I could print an imagination for you at some point, I'd be happy to snail-mail it over.
  
  --
  "Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right" - Salvor Hardin
2. Re:Plastic stuff? by AmiMoJo · 2013-03-28 22:33 · Score: 2
  
  So... All stuff that would have been cheaper to just buy from China. Like he said.
  I could download, print and bind a book today. It would be cheaper to just buy the damn thing in most cases and I'd end up with a better product.
  
  --
  const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
  SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
3. Re:Plastic stuff? by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 22:37 · Score: 0
  
  Keep the printer, but can you snail-mail me 6 monitors? And the Nexus 7? Thanks.
4. Re:Plastic stuff? by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 00:24 · Score: 0
  
  I know. Because my current color laser printer is about as good as my 30 year old Commodore MPS-803. And my Motorola StarTac had all the bells and whistles of my current smartphone.
  
  For a bunch of self-appointed know-it-alls you guys really have no vision for the future even as it has unfolded right before your eyes within your own lifetime.
  
  But yeah, 3d printers will never print anything but "plastic bits." At least for the know-nothing (and proud of it!) crowd.
5. Re:Plastic stuff? by lxs · 2013-03-29 01:09 · Score: 1
  
  Not really. Traditional methods are cheaper if you need 1000 of something. If you need one or ten of something then 3D printing starts to make sense.
  As for the quality of the prints, I remember owning and using a 6 pin dot matrix printer back in the 1980s. That one would never replace real prints. A decade later small laser printers could produce prints that rivaled traditional print jobs.
6. Re:Plastic stuff? by DogDude · 2013-03-29 11:26 · Score: 1
  
  I can already buy anything I can imagine, thanks. By the way, how much imagination did it take to buy a very expensive gadget to print some generic plastic stuff worth pennies?
  
  --
  I don't respond to AC's.
We're Saved! by sanman2 · 2013-03-28 16:58 · Score: 3, Funny

Oh thank goodness! We'll now be able to print plastic dogshit cheaper than the cost of mass-producing it in China!
Then nobody will be able to take that away from us - short of prying it out of our cold dead hands.
1. Re:We're Saved! by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 03:13 · Score: 0
  
  When you're ready, here's the file:
  http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:23338
2. Re:We're Saved! by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 08:36 · Score: 0
  
  3d printing is the future. Maybe not home 3-d printing, but you can, right now, print pieces using titanium sintering that is stronger and lighter than most other materials because it has an internal structure designed to maximize the strength where needed and minimize weight where it isn't. Look all over nature, and you'll find stuff with complex internal patterns for exactly that reason. Traditional manufacturing techniques couldn't replicate that, but 3D printing can. The first company that can create a 3D printer that will output parts that are stronger, lighter, and cheaper (because they're using less material) than traditionally manufactured products is going to make a killing.
3. Re:We're Saved! by Hal_Porter · 2013-03-29 09:06 · Score: 1
  
  Consider the following Nuclear Monroe Doctrine example
  http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?lat=-4.959937902085307&lng=76.28965300000004&zm=1&kt=20000000000
  Basically the US would tow a very large nuke - perhaps one designed to ignite the ocean - just off Diego Garcia.
  It's good to know that supplies of plastic dogshit will still be secure after that.
  Of course it may not come to that but who knows?
  Here's an NZ version
  http://i.imgur.com/sr6LR.jpg
  
  --
  echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
4. Re:We're Saved! by peawormsworth · 2013-03-30 09:35 · Score: 1
  
  3d printing is the future. Maybe not home 3-d printing...
  I think you are absolutely wrong. I think home 3d printing will be the biggest gain. Business have methods of mass producing goods and 3d printers will surely help them in their prototype developments. But I think the biggest winner in cheap 3d printers will be in the home, where anyone can print out the required part to fix their fridge, car or washing machine from the open source design spec they simply download online. And this will serve great value to small remote villages. The cost savings and value to the individual will be greatest because they dont have the benefits of economy of scale.
Gartner should Google they're less than $800 NOW! by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 17:04 · Score: 0

$2000 by 2016? Are you joking? They're only a few hundred quid now!
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/02/04/ten_3d_printers/
Surely a typo? If I can buy a plastic gun for $3, and motors for $10, then sub- $50 is more realistic for 2016. Perhaps if it needs processing power too, add $100 for a Ouya class android device to drive it.
Companies like Gartner ... by jabberwock · 2013-03-28 17:08 · Score: 2

... make forecasts of technological advancements, market adoption rates, production scale and resultant pricing all the time. Quite often, they come up with them pretty much the same way you would: By asking around.
McKinsey, same product, often the same methodology.
And it is *astonishing* how many of those reports you cannot find on the Internet later, when you want to make fun of them.
2016? by speedplane · 2013-03-28 17:21 · Score: 5, Informative

There are a ton of 3D printers on the market right now for less thank $2k, many for less than $1k. They are fully assembled machines too, not just a DIY hobby toys. I don't really understand how this article is news.

--
Fast Federal Court and I.T.C. updates
1. Re:2016? by biggerboy · 2013-03-28 18:10 · Score: 1
  
  Right. Just go here:
  http://www.inventables.com/
2. Re:2016? by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 18:45 · Score: 0
  
  I would say this article is just bait for people to point this out, to drive people to those very companies you mention.
3. Re:2016? by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 19:53 · Score: 0
  
  Read the summary. It says "enterprise-class 3D printers".
4. Re:2016? by DKlineburg · 2013-03-28 20:56 · Score: 1
  
  I want a CNC home put together kit now..
  
  --
  Memory is deceptive because it is colored by today's events. - Albert Einstein
5. Re:2016? by AmiMoJo · 2013-03-28 22:40 · Score: 2
  
  Gartner exists to tell companies what they want to hear. You say to them "we make 3D printers but they cost about $10k, maybe in a few years they will be down to $2k and everyone will buy one". They do a nice press release saying they have "studied" the situation and concluded that in a few years 3D printers will be available for under $2k and everyone will buy one.
  In other words they try to modify the world to suit your companies desires and timescales by issuing bullshit studies and articles to major sources of news, hoping to fool casual readers and clueless investors.
  
  --
  const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
  SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
6. Re:2016? by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 00:00 · Score: 0
  
  I have two. Less than $2k using ebay parts. 0.03mm resolution plus I can make useful things with it.
Why Does Anyone Give A Shit About Gartner? by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 17:31 · Score: 0

It's not even worth asking again.
Re:Impersonation and moderation abuse... apk by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 17:32 · Score: 1

PS, Just so you know guys, I am TOTALLY 3D printing a giant plastic buttplug for myself right now, using data from my HOSTS file! I'm tellin ya, that thing has SO many undocumented uses!
APK
You can already buy them for sub-$2000 by Skythe · 2013-03-28 17:35 · Score: 2

It may not be exactly what Gartner envisioned, but there's the RepRap project which aims to be able to fully self replicate. At least check it could print 50% of it's own parts, and they are working on being able to print electric circuitry next - http://www.reprapcentral.com/vmchk.html
1. Re:You can already buy them for sub-$2000 by DKlineburg · 2013-03-28 20:57 · Score: 1
  
  Wait, it can print itself? http://kafee.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/drawing_hands.jpg
  
  --
  Memory is deceptive because it is colored by today's events. - Albert Einstein
Never underestimate the appeal of cheap junk by voss · 2013-03-28 17:43 · Score: 1

When 3d printers can custom make kitsch of all sorts in minutes at a local store, it is a revolution. Then its not just junk its YOUR personal junk :)
1. Re:Never underestimate the appeal of cheap junk by amber_of_luxor · 2013-03-28 18:36 · Score: 1
  
  I've seen 3D printers in the back room of tourist traps.
  Usually to print out one day only junk, to inflict upon their victims, persuading them that the junk will be very rare one day.
  I've no doubt that those printers can be used on a moment's notice to include the mark's name.
  
  --
  Wind Beneath Thy Wings
2. Re:Never underestimate the appeal of cheap junk by jehan60188 · 2013-03-29 04:28 · Score: 1
  
  don't these printers take hours to make even small things? doesn't seem like a good investment for someone trying to make a living in a over-priced tourist town
I could do with some sub $2k laser sintering by John.Banister · 2013-03-28 18:06 · Score: 2

Or sub $20k, for that matter, but I don't think I'll see it by 2016.
Waiting for the day.. by ottawanker · 2013-03-28 18:11 · Score: 1

I'm waiting for 3d printers that can print metal.
1. Re:Waiting for the day.. by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 18:58 · Score: 1
  
  Shapeways, and a few services in Europe print metal parts.
2. Re:Waiting for the day.. by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 01:09 · Score: 0
  
  They do sintered metals. Easier is to email your model to your local jeweler and get him to cast it; Matt Powell in Omaha will take the file, print it in wax and do lost wax casting. $10/hr for the printer and $25 for the casting.
3. Re:Waiting for the day.. by locopuyo · 2013-03-29 03:40 · Score: 1
  
  If you used metal the same way plastic (adding it on bit by bit) is used in 3D printers it wouldn't be very strong at all. Metal needs to be casted in order to form a strong structure.
  
  --
  The Official Site of 1337 Pwnage
Large Security Events Mirror (quality files!) by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 18:33 · Score: 0

http://wipkip.nikhef.nl/events/
Well, so much for 3D printing then by SmallFurryCreature · 2013-03-28 19:14 · Score: 3, Insightful

If Gartner predicts it will be a success, it won't. They never ever been right on anything. You would think that even a broken clock is right twice a day but Gartners clock isn't.
And for all the 3D printing fans, right now there is a cheap home production system out there. It is called the sewing machine. It used to be common in every house because producing your own clothes was cheaper and you could make what you needed, when you needed it. Brilliant! There was an entire eco-system around it with fabric stores and even stores that sold nothing but buttons.
Do you own a sewing machine? No? Why not? Because it takes to much skill? Because it is cheaper to buy crappy fall apart stuff made in sweatshops around the world and marked up 1000%?
Well then what makes you think 3D printing will take off as a home production system? Yes yes, you can print your own gun... GUN. SINGLE. So you going to buy a 2000 dollar printer to print a 100 dollar gun... And if you really want to make your own gun, there are already plenty of metal working tools out there that can do it for you. You can already buy all the tools to build a gun. Even in countries with strict gun laws.
3D printing is an amazing invention and will completely change how things are prototyped or how unique items are created. BUT it is the sewing machine, hand sewing machines are STILL used by those prototyping clothing AND artists that want to make something unique. The rest of us buy our crap of the rack.
Same as I don't have a vegetable patch, don't grow my own herbs in a window box, don't make my own soap, don't gather my own firewood, don't cut my own bread, don't generate my own electricity, don't make own compost for plants, fix my own car, paint my apartment.
Hell, how many here even build their own PC anymore? And if you go "oh but that is way to complex and time consuming"
EX-FUCKING-ACTLY
I actually have used 3d printing services to create some cases for Arduino projects. I used a hobby club where a member helped me (well, did all the work for me really) and created some cases from scratch. Very nice, very useful but really, no different from me going to a tailor and asking for a suit to be made (which is not as expensive as people think it is). I don't have a sewing machine and I don't see a future of me owning a 3D printing machine. Why would I? I can pay someone to do it or me, and they can then afford a much better one then I can afford and we are all happy and laughing at Gartners made up statistics.

--

MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
1. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by DKlineburg · 2013-03-28 21:05 · Score: 1
  
  I would mod you up if I could. Why I do some things, Gardening, I do that because I enjoy it, not because I'm saving money. Although people think that. I could see getting a CNC machine (now that I saw it pointed out in here it was cheap) not because I think I will save money, but I love working with wood. I'm making a planter box, and yes that is saving me money. 130-200 for the size I'm making with materials for 40. But, I wouldn't expect people to know how to think it up. My fiance I don't think understands how I"m doing it even after drawing 2d from all sides, as well as a 3d sketch up. This is great for hobbies though. Anyway, I do think you have a point. Only hobbyist who like that thing, or small businesses will have one.
  
  --
  Memory is deceptive because it is colored by today's events. - Albert Einstein
2. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by Dekker3D · 2013-03-28 21:38 · Score: 1
  
  Similarly, I have a Reprap printer. It takes work and knowledge to get it to work and keep working, needing attention like a spoiled little baby, but it's fun to mess around with. I also built my computer from parts, about 4 or 5 years ago. It still serves every purpose I use it for. It also has its share of weirdness sometimes, but I can deal with it.
  To those with the patience for it, DIY can be a beautiful kind of project to work on. To those without, surely there's someone nearby who has the right skills and the right price.
3. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by WillAdams · 2013-03-28 23:35 · Score: 1
  
  However, it's worth noting that when the sewing machine was invented, it was noted that there would be one in every home, and for a long while, there pretty much was.
  There was still a tailor in town when I moved here, and I've always regretted not going to have some shirts tailor made there (he's since retired after 50 years in business) --- fortunately, a quick Google search shows a couple still in business.
  It'll be interesting to see what the life cycle of 3D printing is.
  
  --
  Sphinx of black quartz, judge my vow.
4. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by WillAdams · 2013-03-28 23:38 · Score: 1
  
  One of the reasons I got a Shapeoko ( http://www.shapeoko.com/ ) was so that I would be able to make my own brass hardware for woodworking projects and wouldn't be limited to what I could buy commercially (my last project involved: U.S. made hinges, sand-cast handle from England, forged brass stay chain from Italy, latches from Taiwan and corner protectors from China).
  
  --
  Sphinx of black quartz, judge my vow.
5. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by lxs · 2013-03-29 01:16 · Score: 1
  
  You don't own a sewing machine? How do you get your pants to fit?
6. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by drinkypoo · 2013-03-29 01:53 · Score: 1
  
  The substantial difference between a sewing machine and a 3d printer is that you cannot simply feed a sewing machine a design and have it spit out an article of clothing. As near as you get to that is embroidery machines which you must carefully set up, which will embroider onto a garment or piece of material. Most of them don't even make their own thread changes, but hobbyists are now building 3d printers with multiple extruder heads, or extruder heads in which materials are mixed directly before extrusion. As sewing machines underwent years of improvement to become the polished and reliable machines of today, so 3d printers are advancing and will eventually be as relatively trouble-free as a laser printer. I use them as an example because to be fair, we still have page jams and driver problems and I certainly hope that no one expects 3d printing to work on time every time. But these days, pretty much everyone is expected to own a printer, and it's not unreasonable to imagine that eventually (and maybe even within most of our lifetimes) more or less everyone in the developed world will own a 3d printer. Most of the materials being used today by hobbyists are highly recyclable, and it should be even easier to recycle them by the time the 3d printer becomes ubiquitous.
  
  --
  "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
7. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by onyxruby · 2013-03-29 02:18 · Score: 1
  
  You make some good points on sewing machines, guns and Gartner, and I would have to add that the inevitable cost of "toner" is another in to make on your side of things. I really have to disagree with how far you take things against the the do it yourself ethos though.
  I'm pretty far from what you would call a prepper, yet I have my own vegetable patch, grow my own herbs, fix my own car, gather my own herbs, make my own compost and paint my own house. You might think I live in the country, however I live in a suburb in a carefully chosen wooded lot. A fairly significant number of people in North America and Australia are willing to fix things themselves whether for hobby, economic necessity or simply the job of working with their own hands.
  I foresee 3D printers becoming popular with hobbyists and people performing repairs as it crosses domains (auto, toys, computers, rocketry etc). What I don't see is it ever entering the level of having one in every house. I think we certainly see the day where you go down to your local office supply store and they print something out for you on the spot from your own design.
8. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 02:22 · Score: 0
  
  Custom tailored so the crotch is roomy enough.
9. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by HornWumpus · 2013-03-29 02:30 · Score: 1
  
  We've (humanity) been injection molding for about 100 years now and nozzles still freeze off.
  Printing is just an easier problem. There are CNC sewing machines, it's just that they aren't used much as people are more versatile and cheaper.
  Sewing is a better analogy to 3d printing then printing is.
  And even with printing, nobody home prints paperback books.
  
  --
  John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
10. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by AnotherAnonymousUser · 2013-03-29 02:31 · Score: 1
  
  Help these guys out to bring the cost of the "toner" for 3D printers down even cheaper :) http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/833191773/filastruder-a-robust-inexpensive-filament-extruder
11. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by drinkypoo · 2013-03-29 02:38 · Score: 1
  
  There are CNC sewing machines, it's just that they aren't used much as people are more versatile and cheaper.
  My understanding is that they are only really capable of doing simple jobs on their own, and for anything interesting you need humans to do a lot of complex setup anyway. That's not really much of a CNC sewing machine, is it? It's more semi-automatic than automatic.
  
  Sewing is a better analogy to 3d printing then printing is.
  3d printing of the type commonly done with cheap printers today is so much simpler than sewing that it doesn't even bear comparing.
  
  And even with printing, nobody home prints paperback books.
  False. People print out books' worth of information all the time. Most of the time they bind them with a binder. I know some people with binding machines, but they are in the minority. Some of my friends used to photocopy gaming books, because the slimmer ones were actually cheaper on that basis; now they are commonly exchanged as PDFs.
  
  --
  "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
12. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by WillAdams · 2013-03-29 03:05 · Score: 1
  
  You wrote:
  >And even with printing, nobody home prints paperback books.
  I do this from time-to-time, to make gifts. One which was featured in the TeX Showcase:
  http://www.tug.org/texshowcase/
  (look for _The Book of Tea_)
  More recently I made a hand bound copy of Frank Lloyd Wright's version of _The House Beautiful_ as a wedding gift.
  William
  William
  
  --
  Sphinx of black quartz, judge my vow.
13. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by WillAdams · 2013-03-29 03:07 · Score: 1
  
  While I'm not as fast as my mother was, I can sew a pretty fair seam, hemming pants is quite easy, albeit a bit slow by hand.
  
  --
  Sphinx of black quartz, judge my vow.
14. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by Thomas+Charron · 2013-03-29 08:14 · Score: 1
  
  Your assuming that they will become ubiquitous. Justify why this would happen, beyond just that it could? Given the quality of the FDM process, why would a user want to sit back and wait 4 hours for a towel hanger for their bathroom that will look like it was made up of small strings of plastic?
  FDM based 3d printers will NEVER be trouble free. The companies which sell them sell you contracts with technicians who are on call to maintain them. It is a glue gun with a small hole. And it prints out in a few hour a piece that can be mass produced for penny's, to be sold at your local Wallmart for a dollar. Why would companies even WANT that to happen, really?
  Your looking at a utopian dream which just isn't going to happen IMHO. These tools will be used just like they have for the last 20 years, by engineers or techies. Engineers will be able to have one on their desk, or even at home, as compared to a dozen people sharing one. Quicker design, as a dozen people don't have to wait for a dozen other people, to be able to do a 6 hours print.
  Now the resin based printers would hold more merit to what your talking about. http://b9creator.com/
  
  --
  -- I'm the root of all that's evil, but you can call me cookie..
15. Re:Well, so much for 3D printing then by HornWumpus · 2013-03-29 09:41 · Score: 1
  
  I'll see your home book printing and raise you hand made paper and caligraphy. Some people have too much time on their hands (see below). Those aren't paperback books.
  I haven't printed a whole book worth of information (at a time) sense I started paying for my own printer supplies.
  On the flip side I know a dude with a burster and an industrial scanner. Last I talked to him he was working on posting a metric shitload of obsolete computer docs and falling behind the queue. He's weird even by geek standards. Owns a card punch that was bought but never installed (government spending, got to love it).
  
  --
  John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
Re:Impersonation and moderation abuse... apk by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 19:22 · Score: 0

PS, Just so you know guys, I am TOTALLY 3D printing a giant plastic buttplug for myself right now, using data from my HOSTS file! I'm tellin ya, that thing has SO many undocumented uses!
Too bad you can't put just a 0 in it.
And by 2020 you can buy cars for less than 100k by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-28 20:47 · Score: 0

Dear customers of Gartner: Please send me what you paid Gartner, my prediction is as valuable as Gartner's.
Waiting to see commercial uptake by WillAdams · 2013-03-28 22:44 · Score: 1

The problem is, the run-time on these is so long, it's only justifiable for one-offs or prototypes.
Using a CNC machine to make molds for injection makes more sense now: http://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/gcnc/
But I'm still surprised not to see 3d printers:
- in automotive service departments to print trim pieces in the right colour
- paired w/ a 3d scanner in a hardware store --- customer brings in broken thing-a-ma-bob, it gets scanned, one is then directed to the right aisle for a replacement, or a quote to print a replacement is generated

--
Sphinx of black quartz, judge my vow.
1. Re:Waiting to see commercial uptake by 3dr · 2013-03-29 05:37 · Score: 1
  
  - in automotive service departments to print trim pieces in the right colour
  A friend of mine has a ferrari of some kind, and I asked about maintenance costs since I was curious how it was. Overall, he said it was certainly more than a ford, but his car had been well maintained and hadn't had any big problems. But recently, a plastic clip inside the door broke, and it rendered the outside handle useless.
  To fix it, the shop got a replacement part to the tune of US$1200, plus labor to install it.
  It's parts like these that I would look to print on a 3d printer. Not every part can be satisfactorily printed, however, but it's worth checking.
  I offered to only charge my friend $500 for the part, what a deal! He was not amused.
2. Re:Waiting to see commercial uptake by Thomas+Charron · 2013-03-29 08:21 · Score: 1
  
  Because the quality of the part printed by FDM is horrible. No one wants this sort of quality. An engineer needs to touch up any 3d models generated with scanning.
  It's ridiculous that people think that this sort of technology is ready for what your talking about. Do you actually own one?
  
  --
  -- I'm the root of all that's evil, but you can call me cookie..
Gartner?! by Type44Q · 2013-03-28 23:28 · Score: 1

Holy shit, those coke-snorting peons at Gartner still have a pulse? (I remember trying to explain the importance of - and future prospects for - 3D accelerators... to some of their analysts back in '95 or '96... they didn't get it and damn were they sure I didn't!) ROFL...
SSD Drive by aurizon · 2013-03-29 00:41 · Score: 1

I am going to wait before I buy one of these 3D printers. Once they can print 256Gig SSD drives, they will be worth buying...
1. Re:SSD Drive by locopuyo · 2013-03-29 03:48 · Score: 1
  
  They will take off as they can do 640K. That should be enough for anyone.
  
  --
  The Official Site of 1337 Pwnage
2. Re:SSD Drive by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 06:31 · Score: 0
  
  In your sterilized cleanroom downstairs :-)
Patents patents patents... by Destoo · 2013-03-29 01:40 · Score: 1

The difference between consumer-class and enterprise-class 3D printers are minor. Controlled temperature environment is one of them.
As soon as one of the small fish is advertising features of the so called enterprise-class 3D printers, they are sued into oblivion by Stratasys and others using their patents.

--
Nouvelles de jeux et technologies en français. TC
1. Re:Patents patents patents... by Destoo · 2013-03-29 01:41 · Score: 1
  
  And I'm very happy with my Up! PP3DP printer!
  
  --
  Nouvelles de jeux et technologies en français. TC
LYMAN FILAMENT EXTRUDER II by Immerial · 2013-03-29 02:44 · Score: 2

The 'ink' isn't going to be a problem. Someone already thought of that as one of the things that might hold back 3D printing. There is a great article on it: http://techland.time.com/2013/03/04/how-an-83-year-old-inventor-beat-the-high-cost-of-3d-printing/
From the article:
"In May of 2012, the contest, dubbed the Desktop Factory Competition, debuted on iStart.org, a Kauffman-owned platform for entrepreneurial competitions. Sponsored by Inventables, Kauffman and the Maker Education Initiative, it offered $40,000 from Kauffman and hardware prizes such as a 3D printer from Inventables to the first person or team who submitted plans for an open-source device capable of turning plastic pellets into filament. The rules also mandated that the parts involved could cost no more than $250, priced at a 400-unit quantity."
....
"Buy a kilogram of pellets and make your own filament, and the cost goes down to $10. Buy 25 kilograms of pellets in bulk, and you can print the chess pieces for just $5."
That's not I folks It's Jeremiah Cornelius... apk by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 02:50 · Score: 0

THIS is why he's doing it & proof of it, here -> http://interviews.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=3585927&cid=43295193 when others pointed out Jeremiah Cornelius forgot to submit one of the "first post spams" masquerading as myself as AC, & mistakenly submitted one of the impersonations of myself as his registered 'luser' name here on /. forums.
Pretty pitiful actually, but like every up to no good idiot does? He screwed up & submitted it under his registered 'luser' name here.
* Jeremiah Cornelius: DO YOURSELF, and the rest of us, A GIANT FAVOR MAN: Seek professional psychiatric help!
(Since Jeremiah Cornelius obviously can't get over the fact he made a spelling error on what it is HE ALLEGEDLY DID FOR A LIVING? That's not MY fault... it's HIS!)
APK
P.S.=> I seriously must have dusted JC (in his mind @ least) for his BAD spelling error & it "got his goat"...
I.E.-> Catching what he claimed to do as a job, for YEARS he left "PENETRATION" (correct) spelled as "PENTRATION" (incorrect) on his resume on LinkedIn & I pointed it out as he & his friends trolled me as usual (webmistressrachel, gmhowell, & crew (probably ALL JC no doubt using alterate emails or TOR to do it as a possible - I've caught "them & theirs" doing it before, ala Barbara, not Barbie = TomHudson (same person))).
So THAT is what has gotten his goat in a technical debate & his "geek angst" could only come up with *trying* to "impersonate me" in every news thread on /. for the month of March 2013 so far!
(Just to attempt to 'discredit me' as a spammer here obviously)
Doing so, by posting that "$10,000 challenge" &/or reposts of my old posts on hosts file value to end users into EVERY SINGLE NEWS ARTICLE POSTED on /. ...
It's all I can think of that *might* cause such a mentally troubled 'reaction' like the Jeremiah Cornelius is doing & there's NO QUESTION he's the one doing this spamming of nearly every posted article masquerading as myself...!
... apk
Sell my car, buy a printer by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 03:20 · Score: 0

I wonder if I'll still be able to sell my car for $2000 by then. It would be worth it...
wat? by fazey · 2013-03-29 04:11 · Score: 1

reprap is already $500
You lost me at... by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 05:14 · Score: 0

... "Gartner says".
Soon... by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 05:36 · Score: 0

The 3D printers will be $30, but the plastic will be $300 a roll.
Re:Impersonation and moderation abuse... apk by Anonymous Coward · 2013-03-29 05:40 · Score: 0

Why do you keep spamming slashdot with this crap? Just get over it already. Change your password, move on, and quit posting this crap.