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Modelling Reveals Likely Spread of New H7N9 Avian Flu

Posted by Unknown on from the we're-all-gonna-die dept.

ananyo writes "With Taiwan announcing the first case of H7N9 avian flu outside mainland China, researchers have revealed how the virus may spread in China — and beyond. The projections use risk maps developed for human infection by another, well-established avian flu — H5N1. Indeed, when human cases of H7N9 are overlaid on a risk map, they appear to fall within the highest risk areas for H5N1. The map suggests that high-risk areas for H7N9 might include Shandong province (where the first case was reported 23 April) and a belt extending around the Bohai sea to Liaoning province in the north. Though there has been no evidence of sustained human-to-human spread of H7N9 so far, researchers have analyzed airline passenger data for China. Eastern China — the epicenter of the current the H7N9 outbreak — is one of the world's busiest hubs for airline traffic. From the Nature story: 'A quarter of the global population outside of China lives within two hours of an airport with a direct flight from the outbreak regions, and 70% if a single connecting flight is included.'"

102 comments

  1. OH NO! Not again! by pallmall1 · · Score: 0, Redundant

    The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

    --
    3 things about computers: they're alive, they're self-aware, and they hate your guts.
    1. Re:OH NO! Not again! by ackthpt · · Score: 1

      The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

      That's nothing, wait until they can issue H7N9 Avian Flu from 3D printing.

      --

      A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
    2. Re:OH NO! Not again! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Funny

      We have China and Taiwan. When it gets to a third country it will be epidemic, according to the definition of the word.

      Then Wolf "Douche of the Universe" Blitzer can have a special show and just panic the entire time.

      I apologize to all slashdotters, I just really do not like Wolf. He is a complete waste of a human being and a super sucky "news person".

    3. Re:OH NO! Not again! by TWiTfan · · Score: 1

      On the upside, I can finally put my Y2K bunker to use.

      --
      The cow says "Moo." The dog says "Woof." The Timothy says "Thanks, valued customer. We appreciate your input."
    4. Re:OH NO! Not again! by TWiTfan · · Score: 1

      I just really do not like Wolf. He is a complete waste of a human being and a super sucky "news person".

      Don't you just love the way he pretends to be a serious journalist while he's engaging in shameless ratings grabs, as if keeping a stoic face somehow makes his network's panic-mongering and opportunistic exploitation of every event-of-the-moment into responsible reporting?

      --
      The cow says "Moo." The dog says "Woof." The Timothy says "Thanks, valued customer. We appreciate your input."
    5. Re:OH NO! Not again! by felixdzerzhinsky · · Score: 2

      The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

      The education standard on slashdot is falling.

      --
      "Flags are bits of colored cloth that governments use first to shrink-wrap people's brains..."
    6. Re:OH NO! Not again! by JavaBear · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I was about to say something like that. Only less diplomatic.

      People are remembering how previous, highly publicised breakouts turned out to be minor. At least globally.
      They forget the immense effort by WHO and similar to prevent the outbreaks from becoming pandemics. SARS and N1H1 both were contained. Partially because they weren't as deadly as first thought, but definitely also due to enforced measures.

      This new one, by all indications is no spring flu. This one kills, and if it does start spreading between humans directly, we are in trouble.

      At least it'll probably help solve the global overpopulation problem rather efficiently.

    7. Re:OH NO! Not again! by cayenne8 · · Score: 1
      Hmm..

      Well, until the disease resolves in China, let's just ban them from landing outside their country. In this day in age, telecommuting and teleconferences negate much of any need to visit in person anyway.

      :)

      --
      Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
    8. Re:OH NO! Not again! by Clsid · · Score: 1

      Well, the people that have been killed were old people, so it's not exactly a killer virus yet.

    9. Re:OH NO! Not again! by TWiTfan · · Score: 1, Interesting

      This new one, by all indications is no spring flu. This one kills, and if it does start spreading between humans directly, we are in trouble.

      Yeah, that's what they said about H5N1, and a million different viruses and diseases that were the disease-of-the-moment before that, going back decades (remember the Russian Flu, anyone?). A bunch of epidemiologists get a lot of grant money, news channels get some ratings from the disease-of-the-moment, the public overreacts like they always do, much bullshit is spoken, and a year or two later it's on to the next goddamned thing that's going to KILL US ALL!

      And before you cite 1918 (as is ALWAYS cited in these pandemic scares), spare me. This isn't an era of shitty sanitation, poor understanding of viruses, awful medical treatment, and scores of people living in overcrowded tenements with no sewers and in crowded WWI-era military encampments.

      --
      The cow says "Moo." The dog says "Woof." The Timothy says "Thanks, valued customer. We appreciate your input."
    10. Re:OH NO! Not again! by RoTNCoRE · · Score: 2

      Yet we'll throw wheelbarrows of money and human capital at statistical non-events like terrorism, while seasonal flu alone kills 37K annually in the US. Spare me...

    11. Re:OH NO! Not again! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I want to live where you do.

      It might not be quite as bad as 1918, but millions of people, even the developed world still live with those issues as a reality.

    12. Re:OH NO! Not again! by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      We have China and Taiwan. When it gets to a third country it will be epidemic, according to the definition of the word.

      Except for the Chinese who insist that it would have to get to two more countries.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    13. Re:OH NO! Not again! by dkleinsc · · Score: 1

      People are remembering how previous, highly publicised breakouts turned out to be minor. At least globally.

      People are also remembering how influenza epidemic scares drive up sales of flu vaccines, which I'm sure is something the manufacturers and retailers of those vaccines really hate and is entirely coincidental.

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    14. Re:OH NO! Not again! by Admiral+Valdemar · · Score: 1

      Going to substantiate that, or must I don my tinfoil hat?

    15. Re:OH NO! Not again! by ColdWetDog · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Well, the people that have been killed were old people, so it's not exactly a killer virus yet.

      You ain't getting any younger, chucko. And just keep in mind, by the time you are 'old people', healthcare in the US will be limited to three generic aspirin tablets and a used bandaid per month.

      You damn well hope we figure it out before then.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    16. Re:OH NO! Not again! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Sanitation doesn't have a goddam thing to do with the spread of influenza. It is spread by human breath - so unless you consider getting the entire population to wear N95 respirators as a sanitation advance, then there are no sanitation improvements that will matter a whit against an influenza pandemic. And our understanding of viruses, while it has progressed greatly, has still not yielded one measure other than vaccinations (which are not a possible solution should this one go pandemic any time soon) that will help staunch a pandemic. Sorry, you need to educate yourself before you continue to spout nonsense. And BTW, have you ever been to Shanghai, Mumbai, or even a housing project in the US? Overcrowded tenements! And lack of sewage has little to do with passing viruses that float in the air.

    17. Re:OH NO! Not again! by MozeeToby · · Score: 1

      And before you cite 1918 (as is ALWAYS cited in these pandemic scares), spare me. This isn't an era of shitty sanitation, poor understanding of viruses, awful medical treatment, and scores of people living in overcrowded tenements with no sewers and in crowded WWI-era military encampments.

      Yeah, because I know when the regular seasonal flu comes around no one ever gets it. Never spreads at all.

      Come on man. There's not some magical technology field that prevents diseases from spreading. Noravirus can spread to 100 people before the first carrier even knows their sick (my sister's wedding ended up with virtually every guest spending the next day in the bathroom). Schools regularly close down when the flu gets out of hand (twice when I was in high school when more than 50% of the student body was out sick). But hey, we've got sanitation and better hospitals, so I'm sure we can just ignore outbreaks and they'll take care of themselves.

    18. Re:OH NO! Not again! by dkleinsc · · Score: 1

      Motley Fool:

      Sure, the swine flu didn't send revenue skyrocketing, but it was some nice extra bacon that far exceeded what most companies would have gotten for just the seasonal flu. For instance, AstraZeneca's pandemic sales were more than 2.5 times that of its seasonal FluMist vaccine; Glaxo[SmithKlein] quadrupled the revenue seen for its seasonal vaccines Fluarix and FluLaval.

      There's definitely a correlation between flu scares and sales of flu vaccine, as every source I looked at specifically mentioned swine flu as a driver of vaccination recommendations.

      My take: There's a real problem here, but it's blown way out of proportion. The flu vaccine manufacturers have every reason in the world to make it sound like "We're all gonna die! Panic! Get vaccinated right away!" when what actually happens is that the people who die tend to be elderly or otherwise already sick, while healthy adults fight it off pretty easily. And those same manufacturers are major advertisers on television networks, so they could very easily say to their sales rep at the network "You know, we'd really like to see more coverage of the flu problem. Here's some information about it to get you started."

      Not a grand conspiracy, just this business model:
      1. Find a problem
      2. Figure out a solution to this problem.
      3. Help news organizations convince the general public that this problem presents a lethal threat.
      4. Sell the solution.
      5. Profit!

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    19. Re:OH NO! Not again! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      twice when I was in high school when more than 50% of the student body was out sick

      50%? That's absurd. Most of those had to be faking it, had colds instead, or were their parents didn't want their kids getting sick. If 50% of the kids got the flu the CDC would have locked down your town.

    20. Re:OH NO! Not again! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We are so apathetic due to false alarms, but it is very likely one of these will lead to a global pandemic. if you really read the science and not the media. it is extremely likely to happen in the near future. Maybe not, but if it mutates a little more we are screwed. It has killed 20% so far, and the rest haven't been sick long enough to know what percent is fatal. And there have been young people who have died out of the 22. In fact, some strains affect more so those with STRONG immune systems due to the way if causes your immune system to attack itself. But if a large portion of the population dies, well, maybe I'll be able to afford a house after all.

    21. Re:OH NO! Not again! by geekoid · · Score: 1

      You are wrong stop saying shit and pretending you know what you are talking about.
      Its an epidemic when it substantially exceed what is expected based on recent experience.

      The number of countries is irrelevant.

      God I hate people like you.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    22. Re:OH NO! Not again! by geekoid · · Score: 2

      You're an idiot. the worse kind of idiot, a loud mouth idiot.

      "that's what they said about H5N1, "
      yes, and a lot of people dies, nad hospitales were full, and portland rea was completly out of respirators.

      It was bad, and it it had gone for another day, yes DAY, before starting to subside hospitals would have been turning people away.

      100's of people at PAX alone got very ill, and several people died.
      Dodged a bullet.

      But you don't know that right? you don't read the numbers, look at morbidity rates do you? you don't run statistics and look at the impact from over use of JIT delivery systems DO YOU?

      no, you don't. You just blow it off like nothing as if it's some scam. You are stupid. You are ignorant, you are a worthless piece of shit that needs to STFU.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    23. Re:OH NO! Not again! by geekoid · · Score: 0

      You, and apparently the motley fool, are completely ignorant on who flu vaccines are paid for and handled.

      "when what actually happens is that the people who die tend to be elderly or otherwise already sick"
      WRONG fuck twad. The last influenza epidemic killed health people as well. ..while healthy adults fight it off pretty easily.
      Wrong ag.. you know what? fuck you and fuck slashdot. AS some who spends time around world experts in this field I can say you are wrong. You are ignorant beyond belief. I can site extremely good studies. I can show number and prove it, but fuck you. I'll save it for actual scientists and policy makers. I just wish people like you would shut the fuck up with you ignorant statements and foolish examples. People like you create FUD.

      I hope you learn to think before you talk..or die in a fire, either way is good with me.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    24. Re: OH NO! Not again! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Would you rather be caught completely off guard when the "trouble" actually hits? Average flu viruses have a mortality rate nowhere near 20%

    25. Re:OH NO! Not again! by FirephoxRising · · Score: 1

      "Easily fight it off"--Yeah right. SARS killed healthy people *because* of their strong immune response! A new virus can cause a very strong reaction from the immune system and you can die from the over-reaction and subsequent effects on your systems, especially the respiratory system.

    26. Re:OH NO! Not again! by TWiTfan · · Score: 0

      No, I just use my common fucking sense. I look around in my city, see that people aren't dropping like flies, and go on with my life--the same as every other rational, non-Chicken-Little, non-paranoid-nutcase out there. But if you want to panic, build a bunker, go on the news warning people to all stay home cause WESSA ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!! then go right ahead, buddy.

      And I don't think it's a scam, per se. It's just more self-serving scare tactic bullshit from the CDC and its ilk. But you keep telling yourself that THIS TIME IT'S FOR REAL!!! and maybe one day your pandemic dreams will come true.

      --
      The cow says "Moo." The dog says "Woof." The Timothy says "Thanks, valued customer. We appreciate your input."
    27. Re: OH NO! Not again! by TWiTfan · · Score: 1

      No, but there is a big difference between making rational plans for a general pandemic at some point in the future and making specific, overexaggerated claims about a specific virus that will only lead to irrational panic, especially when the claims are coming from an organization (the CDC) with a vested financial interest in inducing fear and a very long history of making these sorts of proclamations.

      --
      The cow says "Moo." The dog says "Woof." The Timothy says "Thanks, valued customer. We appreciate your input."
  2. I am a victim by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I have the sick leave for it, bring it on.

  3. Using the media..... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...... to artificially inflate the shareprice of Tamiflu by stoking up public fears.....AGAIN!

    1. Re:Using the media..... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The shareprice of the makers of Tamiflu I meant to say..

    2. Re:Using the media..... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Look yourself.

      I, personally, would never invest in them simply because I have a problem with OTC papers, and the lack of various security commissions oversight, as well as the purchasing of non-voting shares.

  4. Re:OH NO! Not again! / Flu Apocalypse! by Aguazul2 · · Score: 0

    It's just like Y2K all over again

  5. the new norm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is it just me or do these recent (last 15 years) outbreaks of species jumping maladies seem to more common? I recall the swine flu back in the 70s but that was seemingly the biggest epidemic event I can recall up to H1N1 in mid 2000s. it seems like these bird and swine jumping virii are becoming much mors common.

    1. Re:the new norm by ElectricTurtle · · Score: 2

      It's probably because there are more mutagenic compounds floating around than in the past. The things that cause genetic damage (e.g. cancer) and whatnot in animals can accelerate mutation in single cell organisms, but with their short life cycles and higher populations, it increases the likelihood of something positive being blundered into (and then thriving).

      --
      I support the Slashcott and will not be reading or commenting from 2/10/14 to 2/17/14. Beta is steaming pile of dog shit
    2. Re:the new norm by Time_Ngler · · Score: 2

      Doesn't that violate the "no free lunch" theory, though? If it was genetically advantageous for a virus to mutate more than it normally does, why wouldn't it already be doing so?

    3. Re:the new norm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's about filling air time on the 24 hour news cycle.

    4. Re:the new norm by ElectricTurtle · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure if natural selection norms apply to viruses since they are not independent living organisms. They may very well be limited by the, for lack of a better term, 'bandwidth' of the host cells, and mutagenic compounds may reduce those limitations. Obviously I'm neither a geneticist nor microbiologist, so I could be quite wrong in my intuition about the matter.

      --
      I support the Slashcott and will not be reading or commenting from 2/10/14 to 2/17/14. Beta is steaming pile of dog shit
    5. Re:the new norm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because the mutagens are the lunch.

    6. Re:the new norm by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      It's probably because there are more mutagenic compounds floating around than in the past.

      Or, it's been happening all the time and we didn't know it? I still don't think that you can match the exposure of workers in, say, 1800's when they've been in close contact with all sorts of nasty chemicals without any protection equipment. And before that, medical science and statistics practically didn't exist at all. It's just that we're studying health issues with much closer scrutiny of facts than ever before in recorded history.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    7. Re:the new norm by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

      If you aren't sure that natural selection applies to viruses, you should quit posting in a thread that requires said knowledge to post correctly.

      Antigenic shift and drift was discovered in influenza viruses. Protein self assembly and the genetics surrounding that, core concepts in molecular biology were also derived from virus studies. Viruses were key to unraveling the molecular components of natural (and unnatural) selection.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  6. Madagascar? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Does this model take into account Madagascar shutting down all transportation in and out of the country at the first sign of any illness elsewhere in the world?

  7. What happened to the last pandemic? by ne0n · · Score: 2, Interesting

    With all the crying wolf lately it's a wonder we still see these articles. What happened to SARS, did all five victims of the "pandemic" die without passing it on? H1N1 caused some sniffles. Donald Rumsfeld made a killing with his quack medicine while GSK fleeced the Brits out of a healthy chunk of their health budget during the swine flu hoax. Every year there's a new fake pandemic.

    Almost makes you hope the promised pandemic finally arrives to take out the idiots who keep pump-and-dumping their antiviral stocks.

    --
    $ :(){ :|:& };:
    1. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by Gaygirlie · · Score: 3, Informative

      did all five victims of the "pandemic"

      According to WHO the number is actually 773 deaths, with 8273 cases in total.

    2. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I am wondering now, is there a way to count/estimate/whatever how many cases were prevented by the vaccines?

    3. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by PRMan · · Score: 4, Informative

      And out of the 30,000-60,000 deaths that normally result from the flu, 773 is a very small number (1.25%-2.5%). Given that there are about 4-5 major strains of "active" flu every year, that means the "normal" flus each took out about 5,000-10,000 people and SARS only took out 773. So yeah, he may be using hyperbole, but he is accurate in his snide remarks.

      --
      Peter predicted that you would "deliberately forget" creation 2000 years ago...
    4. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by oodaloop · · Score: 5, Informative

      Thank you so much for your uninformed opinions. A pandemic, if you could be bothered to look it up, is a disease that spreads across large areas. It has nothing to do with how many die. SARS, H1N1, Swine Flu, et al are all pandemics.

      --
      Tic-Tac-Toe, Global Thermonuclear War, and relationships all have the same winning move.
    5. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by ColdWetDog · · Score: 4, Insightful

      All of the pounding noises in your respective heads don't come from the researchers. It comes from all the Mountain Dew and Cheetos you are are mainlining.

        The newspaper article was hardly inflammatory. The Nature summary was actually pretty balanced. What it is showing is that bird flu variants with bird - human transmission seem to be following a pattern. A pattern we might be able to use to our advantage should a real, virulent, pandemic strain show up. Like it did in the 1920's.

      Time to lay off the stimulants, guys.

      I like the fun fact that a significant population of the world is at contact risk should that occur through air travel. Six degrees of separation my ass....

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    6. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by i+kan+reed · · Score: 4, Interesting

      And the reason that number is so small is due in no small part because effective planning on the part of WHO. I won't side with the ridiculous media on their stupid panic-ridden publications about disease, but modern social health programs are a miracle.

    7. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by Charliemopps · · Score: 2

      Well, I'm not one for over-reacting, but there is a very serious threat of a pandemic happening. It's been well over 80 years since we had a really deadly outbreak and there wasn't mass transit like there is now. If we had an outbreak like that, today, it would be pretty devastating. I don't think there's much we can do about it other than invest heavily in more robust broad spectrum vaccines. If we're lucky, we'll find something before "The big one" strikes us. Of all the Crisis out there that the media blows out of proportion, a global pandemic is the one area they probably aren't that far off on. The only reason we shouldn't let it keep us up at night is because there basically nothing most of us can do about it.

    8. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by Capt.DrumkenBum · · Score: 1

      I actually had H1N1. (Doctor diagnosed.) It was quite unpleasant, but I was never really in any danger. There were deaths, mostly the usual people who die from the flu. The old, the young, those with compromised imune systems. The scairy thing about H1N1 was that it also killed people that were not very old, very young, or with AIDS.
      My doctor told me, that most of the people were dieing from H1N1, and were not old, young, AIDS patinets, etc. were seriously overweight. This little fact didn't get much media attention. Why ruin a good panic with facts.

      --
      If I were God, wouldn't I protect my churches from acts of me?
    9. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by jovius · · Score: 1

      SARS is/was more fatal strain, and it was prevented with quick and effective international response. I'm pretty sure people don't want SARS or any new strain to be as prevalently hanging around as common flu. The immune system is not used to it, and there's little reason to let the viruses go freely around and mingle with each other.

      It's a bit morbid to compare the fatalities. I'd rather say that great, only 773. The lower the number the better the response has been.

    10. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by aristotle-dude · · Score: 1

      did all five victims of the "pandemic"

      According to WHO the number is actually 773 deaths, with 8273 cases in total.

      But who gave you those numbers? We want to know who your source is.

      --
      Jesus was a compassionate social conservative who called individuals to sin no more.
    11. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by captain_dope_pants · · Score: 1

      Maybe one of the medics told them ? You know like Dr. WHO or someone ;)

      --
      while (true != false) process_more_stupid_code();
    12. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by Antipater · · Score: 1

      I had H1N1 as well. Not a walk in the park by any means - I was bedridden, fevered and delirious, for pretty much an entire week. I also developed a secondary infection, a weak form of pneumonia ("walking pneumonia") that had me hacking for over a month afterwards. A good two-thirds of everyone I worked with went down for a week as well. And these were people in their twenties - not infants or the elderly, like most flus.

      I don't know the stats on mortality rate or anything, but IMO an epidemic that knocks out a good fraction of the workforce for a week at a time, regardless of the actual number of deaths, deserves significant media coverage. Not "sky is falling" coverage, but definitely a close look.

      --
      Everything is better with chainsaws.
    13. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yours is the uninformed opinion.

      First, SARS was not a pandemic. It was almost entirely contained in South China before it could become pandemic, and it was certainly successfully contained overseas. There was only very limited transmission and a very small number of cases (e.g., about 400 in all of Canada, which was the non-Asian country most affected) of SARS spreading overseas. A handful of overseas cases does not a pandemic make.

      Second, H1N1 and swine flu are the same thing.

    14. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by Golddess · · Score: 1

      Now I'm curious. Is there any way to predict how bad it could have been if everyone treated SARS with the same level of caution they treat the "normal" strains?

      --
      "I'm not sure I like the fugnutish tone you used in your post!" -RogL (608926)-
    15. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by jbrandv · · Score: 1

      OK, I'll look it up. According to Websters: "Pandemic: occurring over a wide geographic area and affecting an exceptionally high proportion of the population"
      I don't think any of those you listed fits the definition. Just saying.

    16. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by oodaloop · · Score: 0

      I don't want to accuse you of cherry picking, but Wikipedia says it is a disease that covers a large geographic region, and says nothing about it having to affect a large proportion of the population. It also specifically says H1N1 is a pandemic in the first paragraph. Dictionary.com says pretty much the same thing. Just saying.

      --
      Tic-Tac-Toe, Global Thermonuclear War, and relationships all have the same winning move.
    17. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes! Though not the pronoun, but rather an organization with the unlikely name of WHO gave Gaygirlie those numbers.

    18. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you want to be pedantic, every flu is a pandemic. The only question is whether it kills enough people (or if the news is slow enough that winter) for it to make the press.

    19. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by CannonballHead · · Score: 2

      What, exactly, was prevented? Do we actually know that our preventative efforts ... did anything? (I'm asking, I'm not exactly making a point; I don't know the answer.)

    20. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      We want to know who your source is.

      I think the answer to your question is "yes", Mr. Yoda.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    21. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No surprise you had H1N1. 20% of the world got it and the percentage was considerably higher than that in the US because this is where it originated. If N7N9 becomes as contagious as H1N1, we can predict that perhaps 10-20% of the world's people will die and another 10% will be sick as hell. The scoffers should really do some research. Influenza pandemics are total game-changers if they have a high mortality rate. Truly, society might not be able absorb the shock.

    22. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When your non-technical friends hear about how CISPA is going to end the Internet, or how they need to update Windows/their browser for security flaws, or how they need to change their passwords on a regular basis?

      This is how they feel.

    23. Re:What happened to the last pandemic? by Kleen13 · · Score: 1

      I've heard that the WHO is reporting 91 laboratory-confirmed human cases and 17 deaths in four Provinces and two Municipalities in China. Sounds real enough to me. I feel safe enough here on the Left Coast in Canada... but there's not much more I can do than wash my hands lots and drink more JD... Some easy reading - http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/eri-ire/h7n9/risk_assessment-evaluation_risque-eng.php

      --
      That sinking feeling deep in your gut when you KNOW you screwed up bad summed up with: {head desk} {head desk}
  8. I'm still waiting by Cro+Magnon · · Score: 1

    for the mix of avian and swine flu. Beware, the Flying Pig Flu!

    --
    Slow down, cowboy! It has been 4 hours since you last posted. You must wait another few hours.
  9. what is "avian flu" by emilper · · Score: 1

    something like the dreadded "mammalian disease" ?

    1. Re:what is "avian flu" by afidel · · Score: 1

      Flu where the primary disease vector is bird to human transmission, generally chickens and ducks raised by the poor to be used as food but which live in close proximity to the owner. They also have a nasty habit of infecting migratory bird species and transmitting the infection to the local bird population along their routes. This is in contrast to those that are primarily spread through pigs (swine flu).

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    2. Re:what is "avian flu" by emilper · · Score: 1

      thank you, but you did not answer the question: is there any other infectious disease to affect all birds, or all mammals, or even all fish?

      as far as I remember, the last "avian flu" was infecting only the palmipedae

      when was the last time you took a disease from a dog ? a dog is a lot closer to a human than a bird.

  10. Obligatory XKCD by thedarkone64 · · Score: 0

    "Indeed, when human cases of H7N9 are overlaid on a risk map, they appear to fall within the highest risk areas for H5N1."

    http://xkcd.com/1138/

    Next they'll be informing us of the shocking news that more people get sick in urban areas than rural!

  11. Good thing I'm not a model then... by CCarrot · · Score: 1

    Love the title: Modelling Reveals Likely Spread of New H7N9 Avian Flu

    Soo...those of us not in the modelling profession are safe, then? :P

    Also, I wonder exactly what else those models are 'revealing'? Maybe those models should put some more clothes on if they don't want to catch the flu?

    </silly_season>

    --
    "I love animals! Some are cute, others are tasty, what's not to like?" - Betsy Schroeder, Jeopardy contestant
  12. you call THAT a pandemic?! by Thud457 · · Score: 1

    WUSSIES. .
    wake me when it's 1918 all over again.

    --

    the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

    1. Re:you call THAT a pandemic?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, really. Suck it up or die, your choice.

    2. Re:you call THAT a pandemic?! by dildos_akimbo · · Score: 1

      just stay away from the sneezing chicken fried rice

    3. Re:you call THAT a pandemic?! by geekoid · · Score: 1

      It would have been if it wasn't for hard work, quick response, and well trained individuals.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  13. RUN FOR THE HILLS !! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Run for your LIFE !!

    Or put your balls to the wall man and accept your fate !!

  14. "It was the flu" by wcrowe · · Score: 1

    Whenever I read stories like this it reminds me of a Stephen King short story. I have forgotten the title, but I believe it is what he eventually developed into The Stand. Everyone is dying of a flu-like disease, and one of the characters is thinking that a big monolith should be constructed by the few humans left to inform any future alien visitors as to what happened to our civilization. Carved into the granite, it should simply read, "It was the flu."

    --
    Proverbs 21:19
    1. Re:"It was the flu" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And the sequel could be the story of a terrified alien civilization that finds the monument, panics, and bankrupts itself trying to create a defense against the mysterious "flu': a race so hostile and advanced that it could wipe out an entire planetary civilization without leaving a trace.

  15. SHUT. DOWN. EVERYTHING. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    dang, forgot to block out H7N9 in his HOSTS file!

  16. Plague Ink by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Thanks for the info. I've been having some real problems beating Plague Ink as Bio Weapon on Brutal settings. I'll have to use this info to change up my strategy.

    Die human scum!!

  17. Linking to Irish newspaper? See you in court! by hydrofix · · Score: 2

    I certainly hope that Sladhot has acquired "Independent.ie's express written consent" for linking to their article in the scoop, as stipulated in the newspaper's online edition's Terms & Conditions:

    Hypertext links to this website by other users and websites are permitted provided that the link to this website is in a simple list of companies by pointing to Independent.ie's home page http://www.independent.ie. This limited licence entitles other users and websites to link to Independent.ie's home page only, and linking to other content on or information in this website is prohibited without Independent.ie's express written consent.

  18. Hmm by TheSkepticalOptimist · · Score: 1

    I think all the models are way off considering that usually the "Reality" of the spread of these things is far far less than the "Reporting" of this news.

    --
    I haven't thought of anything clever to put here, but then again most of you haven't either.
  19. commercial farming saves lives by jsepeta · · Score: 1

    HA! I knew things were better in America, where chickens are separated by people and exposure to the majority of us comes through frozen, deep-fried chicken strips rather than on the bone, in the feather like in China.

    --
    Remember kids, if you're not paying for the service, YOU ARE THE PRODUCT THAT IS BEING SOLD.
  20. Why do so many flus start in China? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why do so many flus start in China? They're not the only country in which people raise pigs in their back yard.

    1. Re:Why do so many flus start in China? by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Unsanitary condition that is covered by innoculating their birds with vaccines and tamiflu. Sadly, when it goes around the world, this will be damaging because the Chinese have already genetically selected the most lethal virus.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  21. Germaphobes... by TechieRefugee · · Score: 1

    Your pants are clear for browning.

  22. Boy who cried wolf by concealment · · Score: 1

    Dear Media,

    We've heard this, or variants of it, too many times and are now desensitized to it.

    Until you show us a pile of bodies, we're inert.

    Sincerely,

    The People

    1. Re:Boy who cried wolf by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Unfortunately - yes. People are stupid and don't bother to do the research and think through the consequences of an all-too-possible society-changing event.

    2. Re:Boy who cried wolf by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      OK. Here you go

  23. Yawn. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Another "OMG FLU" article.
    Because all these flus they try to hype have just been HORRIBLY BAD.
    Oh wait, no, they've been nothing special. At all.

  24. Modelling, eh? by briancox2 · · Score: 2

    Modelling has a limited ability to help in Engineering. And modelling has no ability to provide data to any real scientific study.

    It does not replace experimentation and real data. And its results should always be taken with a grain of salt. There is no way a model on the scale of human culture and global weather (or even local weather for that matter) can be trusted. The entropy cannot be accurately modelled by the system.

    --
    We should learn what we need to know about issues, before we decide what we need to feel about them.
    1. Re:Modelling, eh? by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

      I bet you get invited to all the global warming parties.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    2. Re:Modelling, eh? by briancox2 · · Score: 1

      I bet you get invited to all the global warming parties.

      Of course, I do. We had a recent meeting of "Minnesotans for Global Warming".

      --
      We should learn what we need to know about issues, before we decide what we need to feel about them.
  25. Safe sex is the answer by Rob_Bryerton · · Score: 1

    The Chinese really ought to use condoms when they are "Chicken Farming".

  26. No worries ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm in Madagascar and they've closed the port. Too bad for the rest of you.

  27. It's the product of Virulence & Mortality by mtippett · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The normal flu is quite virulent, but outside of high risk groups, the mortality rate is also quite low. Not pleasant, but low mortality.

    (IANAI - I Am Not An Immunologist) The dangers about these cross-over influenzas is that they tend have a higher-than-average kill rate for generally higher. With global transfer of diseases, a mortality rate of just 1% and infection rate of 10% of the global populate is still around 7 million people. Spanish flu in 1919 had a hit rate of between 2% and 20% (according to wikipedia). A *very* sobering number.

    If we have a contagious, long incubation, high mortality virus hit the globe, we are in a very bad state. Any signal of a pandemic needs to be taken seriously.

     

  28. I'm a living vaccine by WillgasM · · Score: 1

    Dear post-apocalyptic scientists,
    I have the antibodies you seek. Time is short so I won't go into detail, but several years ago I caught a deadly strain of proto-flu from a stray cat. This would have been a death sentence for lesser men, but due to my viking DNA and a cocktail of immuno-boosting supplements, I survived. I've linked to my webpage in hopes that you will still be able to contact me once the human race begins to crumble. Failing that, you can find the entrance to my bunker atop the hill in my hometown. I'll monitor CB channel 19 everyday at dusk awaiting broadcast of your response. I can only hope this message reaches you before it's too late. Good luck, and gesundheit.

  29. Re:OH NO! Not again! / Flu Apocalypse! by geekoid · · Score: 2

    Exactly like it in that it was adverted, barely, through hard work.

    Every respiratory and er bad in Portland alone was completely full. If there has been literally 1 more case, they would have been turned away,and in all likely hood would have been another death..

    Yes LITERALLY.

    A lot of people died, but we cut it off. Yes jerkwads show up saying how it was nothing because they are ignorant SOBs.
    Epidemic hits:"WHY DIDN'T YOU DO SOMETHING!!!"
    epidemic averted through hard word: "YOU DID ALL THAT FOR NOTHING!!!!"

    Fucking idiots.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect