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Can Nintendo Survive Gaming's Brave New World?
Nerval's Lobster writes "Jon Brodkin talked to indie developers (including the creator of Super Mario Bros. Crossover), former Nintendo employees, and a number of others about where exactly Nintendo went wrong over the past few years. Their conclusions? Nintendo made a number of mistakes, including a lack of an indie-developer ecosystem, a refusal to license out core properties such as Super Mario to other gaming platforms (or even iOS and Android), and platforms that don't appeal to hardcore gamers. While the developers suggest Nintendo is taking steps to broaden its horizons, such as by reaching out to smaller studios, it's questionable whether such efforts will succeed in a world where the PS4 and Xbox One are about to enter the market, and iOS and Android are swallowing up mobile gamers' time and dollars. What do you think?"
all they need to do is continue to come out with smash bros. i know a bunch of ppl who buy an entire console just to play that ONE game.
*Looks at Pokemon X/Y sales and 3DS/2DS sales*
All signs point to yes. Dying companies don't sell 4 million games in 2 days and millions of consoles in a year.
Except for hardcore gamers, in my opinion there is no reason for "low-performing gaming consoles" when in 2-3 years a mid-priced smartphone with HDMI + bluetooth running Android will reach similar results. They can become a platform-agnostic seal, providing what users want from them: Mario stuff and fun family games.
Release Mario Kart and other Mario titles on the iPad\Andriod tablet platforms. Even at $29.95 they will sell faster than Apple can make digital copes to send to customers.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
...because, I mean, cash rich companies with great selling mobile devices, portfolios of valuable IP, and games that sell 4+ million copies in a few days go bust all the time... Just because the WiiU isn't the hottest selling console doesn't mean the 3ds isn't doing utterly stupendous numbers for them.
Then I don't care!
I bought an original Nintendo to play Super Mario Bros on. Then I bought the SNES for the next Mario/Zelda, then the GameCube to play Mario again and then Zelda Four Swords and 4 GBA's! I bought the Wii for New Super Mario Bros, and again the Wii U for NSMB WiiU (or whatever it is called). Currently I have 1 game for each of those platforms (Wii and Wii U), and its the Mario games!
As long as they make games that are so fun to multiplayer with my friends I will buy whatever console and game it takes to play it! The only game I play with friends on PS3 or XBox360 is the Rock Band games, and that was only because they didn't have it for Wii yet at the time.
The suggestion that Nintendo should release on iOS and Android would be suicide. The sales figures for the 3DS have already proven the nuts that keep saying Nintendo should release Pokemon the iPhone are insane short term thinkers. Their hand held dominance has yet to be killed. I'll believe Nintendo should start looking at selling on the iCult(Trolling Apple) when Pokemon starts selling less than 1 Million at launch. Since X/Y hit 4 Million I don't think they have to worry about that. Their console market, on the other hand, has been weak since the N64 days. The Wii's success was mostly a fluke caused by MS and Sony raising prices too much, and a couple of gimmicks that were worth some attention by some: motion controls, and wii fit.
always have and always will...
And it's that attitude at Nintendo that has been their problem for 20 years now--blindly assuming that since they were on top once that they'll always have a guaranteed place in the console world, no matter how much the competition (or world) passes them by. Many a company has followed that kind of arrogance right into bankruptcy.
The cow says "Moo." The dog says "Woof." The Timothy says "Thanks, valued customer. We appreciate your input."
Let's pretend for a moment that Nintendo was to make a Mario game for iOS. Would it be in full 3D like Mario 64, or a classic platformer like Super Mario 3?
Neither, it'd be an endless runner where you simply tap the screen to jump on Goombas and over gaps, because touch screens lack the control for anything more sophisticated.
Sure, there are games on the App Store that are fully fledged platformers, but are they any good? No, because (in my experience) your hands are covering 80% of the screen making it impossible to see what's actually going on.
If this is the future of gaming, you can count me out.
Summation 2
HD has made games inherently too expensive to produce. The only things that turn any profit at all are graphics-are-everything reskins of games developed back when it was profitable to focus on things that actually mattered, and those will only sustain the industry for so long. We're headed for another crash, one that Nintendo could have survived a generation ago when it resisted the HD gimmick. Now that it has fallen into that trap, though, it's as hosed as Sony's and Microsoft's gaming divisions will be.
While I don't think it's reached that point yet, at least Nintendo has plenty of cash to float on. One of Nintendo's bigger issues is that they used to be a trend setter. They don't seem to understand that the landscape is drastically changing and that there is nothing they can do about it other then keep up or fall behind. They are no longer steering the industry, but apparently no one has told them that. Don't get me wrong, I love Nintendo and I want them to continue to succeed.
As an old timer, I can thing of a console I would paid a couple hundred bucks for: An all in one system that has every game ever made from 8-bit through Game Cube (or at least 64) pre-loaded and ready to be hooked up to my HDTV. I have been wishing for this for a long time.
BTW - if you have not yet played Super Mario Bros. Crossover, you have not lived until you have played SMB as one of the Contra guys.
Brought to you by Carl's Junior.
On the other hand, it's also premature to declare a company dead when their console one generation back was a huge success, and their handhelds are still extremely popular. On top of that, it's easier than ever to not be "locked in" to a policy of not supporting indie developers with everything being on the cloud now.
Will Nintendo survive?
Sure. Remember that they were founded in 1889. They had a business before video games, and if necessary, they'll have a business after video games.
I think that's where some of their behavior actually comes from. There's a certain level of autonomy that I don't think they're willing to give up, even if that means their video game business tanks.
Nintendo also found a way to appeal to old people and fairly infirm people. Nintendo was the first to make a practical break from the up-down-left-right-a-b controller to something that worked without needing to push buttons, depending on the game. Yes, Nintendo is now going to have to compete with other nontraditional controller systems, but they're up for the task.
There's a lot of money to be made in appealing to non-hard-core gamers, in appealing to those who might casually game, but aren't going to play every day or even every week. There are lot more of those than there are hard-core gamers, and if you can get significant market penetration in a group that probably shouldn't even care, then you can make a lot of money.
Nintendo appears to be able to do that, moreso than other companies. Sega's position was what the other game makers' positions are today, and it ultimately cost them when they slipped and their hard-core gaming clientele left, and they didn't have a casual gaming business to sustain them.
Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
http://www.vgchartz.com/ Nintendo sold over 4 million copies of Pokemon and 423 thousand 3DS the week of Oct 12. I see no reason to think they are going away any time soon.
This is a continuation of a chain of events that began when the N64 was released. Whether it was the cart vs CD debate, or whether it was something else, the result was that the majority of third party developers stuck with the Playstation. It's been the same story ever since: Third parties are hard to come by, and Nintendo's first party games are criticized for being too childish. The first Wii was a huge success because it filled a casual gaming need that is now being fulfilled by iPads and phones.
Nintendo's handhelds seem to do well, perhaps because the same people who talked up the "childish" nature of Nintendo's games were also self-selected out of the handheld gaming audience.
Nintendo made a number of mistakes, including a lack of an indie-developer ecosystem,
True. Nintendo hardware is very nice. An indie-developer program would attract talent and open the door to great games and a profitable future. They just need to find the right branding, probably something like a "Mario Labs" where the gamers also play the role of 'investors', deciding if projects deserve a grant or deserve to get canned.
a refusal to license out core properties such as Super Mario to other gaming platforms (or even iOS and Android), and platforms that don't appeal to hardcore gamers.
False. Core properties (Super Mario, Zelda, et al) are what make a Nintendo console what it is. If you want to play Super Mario, you know what console you need to have in order to play it -- A Nintendo. As soon as Mario makes an appearance on iOS or Android, that's the end of what makes Nintendo special. In essence, they'd become another SEGA; a popular system when I was a teenager, but now just a hit or miss game studio. That's not the road Nintendo wants to go down.
While the developers suggest Nintendo is taking steps to broaden its horizons, such as by reaching out to smaller studios, it's questionable whether such efforts will succeed in a world where the PS4 and Xbox One are about to enter the market, and iOS and Android are swallowing up mobile gamers' time and dollars.
Nintendo knows what the other companies don't:
- $250 entry point
- Make very reliable hardware, but do NOT make it a loss leader
- Curate available titles very carefully to ensure maximum revenue
The gamers looking for the high-end PS4 and Xbox One experience aren't Nintendo's core customers.
The games playing casual games on iOS and Android aren't Nintendo's core customers either.
Nintendo should not be the dog who lost his bone to a reflection.
They know their customer base and they serve them well, which is why they keep making a profit.
i wear nintendo underwear
Exactly.
Nintendo is for kid-friendly and casual fun games.
They have their niche, no reason to bash themselves to pieces on the rocks of XBox, PlayStation, and PCs.
Porting their core products to other systems would hasten Nintendo's death if you didn't have to buy Nintendeo hardware to play them.....
Here is a response I wrote for Game Zero about the whole "Nintendo is gonna fail" stupidity... back in 2000... still relevant.
The Future of Console Gaming: Part 2 - The Five Year Plan
Since the ps4 and xbone aren't out yet, it would be rather unfair to show that the Wii U is outselling them.
Nintendo's biggest weakness is clearly their complete distain and disregard for supporting online play. From tedious friend codes, to a lack of headset/mic support, to their stubborn insistence in "going their own way" with an online marketplace, their online/connectivity factor is woefully neglected and abused.
How can Nintendo make a billion dollars tomorrow? A Pokemon MMO.
How can Nintendo sell a million Wii U consoles? Give Smash Brothers, Mario Cart, Mario Party, and Starfox the same kind of online matchmaking that you would find in CoD or MoH from any LAST GENERATION console.
Will they? Who knows. But the market for a console that doesn't extend past the living room is drying up, and while there will always be a dedicated band of single player or local multiplayer based fans eager for whatever remake from ten years ago Nintendo wants to produce, the rest of the market has expanded their horizon beyond the four walls of their living room, and demands their console do the same.
The Wii only achieved an odd form of success though. While lots of people bought it and Nintendo profited on the sales of the consoles, nowadays they're just sitting on people's shelves unused. Even with that kind of market saturation is it successful if the average Wii owner has, what, less than 5 games? Less than 2? I don't know the answer but if something is purchased but then rarely used it's only a partial success. They have to sell games too.
The Wii only achieved an odd form of success though. While lots of people bought it and Nintendo profited on the sales of the consoles, nowadays they're just sitting on people's shelves unused. Even with that kind of market saturation is it successful if the average Wii owner has, what, less than 5 games? Less than 2? I don't know the answer but if something is purchased but then rarely used it's only a partial success. They have to sell games too.
Actually, unlike Microsoft and Sony, all Nintendo has to do is sell the system and they've already made a profit, even on launch day.
As far as selling games goes, well let's take a look at the top selling games across all consoles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games#All_Consoles
If we disregard Wii Sports (since it was included for free) and all previous generation consoles, then we have the following:
Mario Kart Wii
Wii Sports Resort (some of these were included, but some were purchases separately
Wii Play
New Super Mario Bros Wii
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
Wii Fit
Wii Fit Plus
GTA V
That's 5 or 6 top sellers for the Wii (depending on if you count Resort), and only 2 for the competition. Looks like they aren't hurting too bad. But what about just the overall total of all games sold for the console, worldwide?
http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/Software/Global/
Wii: 901 million games
360: 826 million games
PS3: 749 million games
Yep, that is indeed an odd form of success. Most hardware sold (with none of it sold at a loss), and most games sold. What a total failure.
Oh, and since you said you didn't know the answer about the tie-ratio:
http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/Tie-Ratio/Global/
Wii: 8.99
360: 10.48
PS3: 9.35
So yeah, they are on the bottom of that metric, but still very respectable...only 4% lower than the PS3 and 15% lower than the 360. Not bad at all considering all those system supposedly sitting unused on shelves.
The Wii sold almost 50% more games than the PS3 over its lifespan. This stereotype that everyone bought it for Wii Sports and then chucked it in a closet isn't reflected in the sales numbers at all.
Ita erat quando hic adveni.
The other two console makers are surviving almost exclusively on FPS games. Eventually that market will saturate and simultatenously the innovations in the games will be so minimal that the profit will start to disappear. Neither Sony nor Microsoft seem to have a plan for what to do when the Halo / Battlefield / Medal of Honor / Call of Duty franchises start to lose their appeal. While Nintendo isn't turning in mega bucks selling these games they do have a much broader pallet of gaming genres making up their title sales.
Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
Nintendo is too small
That's cute.
and their core audience is not hardcore enough
Labelist. I submit to you that Mario fans are pretty damned hardcore, especially if they've been with the franchise since its inception.
FC Closer
OK, lets look at the current generation (well... current because the WiiU is out) and previous 3 generations.
Current:
WiiU: Weaker hardware than its competitors, but only slightly cheaper than the announced launch prices for the other two consoles. Isn't doing so well at the moment. Third-party developers are hesitant to support it.
Xbox One: May flop due to marketing mistakes by Microsoft and their insistence that the Kinect is mandatory.
PS4. Current predicted winner of the next console generation thanks to mistakes MS made with the Xbox One and the tepid reception of the WiiU.
Previous:
Wii: Weaker hardware than its competitors, but a low price to match. Managed to pull third-party developers back in. Outsold everyone else.
Xbox 360: Did pretty decently throughout, but got burned a bit by the Red Ring Of Death issue.
PS3: Flopped at launch due to high prices (cost more than two times the Wii's price) and new unusual programming architecture. Managed to catch up to the Xbox 360 in the last few years of this generation.
2000-2005 gen:
Xbox: New vendor. Didn't do that great. Only killer end-user feature over the PS2 was Xbox Live.
PS2: Harder to program for than the PS1, but still managed to keep massive third-party support. Outsold everyone else.
GameCube: Decent hardware but lacked third party support due to previous generation. The loss of Rare and Silicon Knights during this time frame only exacerbated this problem.
Dreamcast: Didn't do so hot, Sega left the market about halfway through this generation.
1995-2000 gen:
Saturn: Biggest flop of the generation. In part because of Sega's braindead strategy of releasing the 32x, a competing "32-bit" addon for the Genesis. Also cost $100 more than the PS1 and launched with no warning.
PS1: Easiest console to develop for. Launched $100 cheaper than the Saturn. Outsold everyone else.
N64: Sticking with cartridges lost Nintendo the majority of its third-party support.. This came back to bite them in the following generation.
I'm not going to address Nintendo's handhelds simply because they've dominated the market since their introduction in 1989 and have essentially kept the company running even when it was doing poorly.
GLaDOS for President 2016! "Well here we are again. It's always such a pleasure." -- GLaDOS, 2011
I've heard (or experienced) good things from Sin and Punishment, Muramusa: The Demon Blade, No More Heroes, Resident Evil 4 (even if it was a remake), Xenoblade Chronicles, Tatsunoko vs Capcom, The Last Story, Red Steel 2, and Zack & Wiki.
I have a Wii and 360. I don't play either much anymore, but the only games I played much of on the 360 was Rock Band games. Other than that, it was just for the NetFlix or Xfinity apps, which I stopped using when I concluded what a waste of money the Gold membership was just to do those.
So why did they start losing money during the Wii generation, when they even made a profit with the Gamecube?
A Nintendo executive admitted that they need to sell multiple games per system to break even on the Wii U.
Also, the Wii U is selling worse than the Gamecube. Which sold worse than the N64. Which sold worse than the SNES. Which sold worse than the NES. Nintendo's home console sales have been in terminal decline since the 80s.
The Wii was just a fad, the singing billy bass of consoles. Its playerbase won't buy a Wii U, they won't even buy a PS4 or an Xbone. They'll buy a tablet and play angry birds or whatever.
Nintendo's home console has no market. The hardcore gamers are on Xbone/PS/PC, the casuals are on tablets and phones, they've basically got Zelda and Mario fans.