Slashdot Mirror


Australian Icebreaker Tries To Get Through To Stranded Antarctic Research Ship

The shipload of researchers and tourists stuck in the Antarctic ice are still stuck. A Chinese icebreaker, the Xue Long, or Snow Dragon, has gotten tantalizingly close but was hampered by "unusually thick ice." Now, an Australian vessel, the Aurora Australis, will attempt to rescue the 74 people aboard the MV Akademik Shokalskiy.

188 comments

  1. Re:We need more bugs in soup by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I believe in Darwin

  2. Vague News by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    I love how the NYT and BBC reports on this story completely neglect to mention that the stuck ship is full of climate scientists out to gather global warming evidence. Just a complete oversight I'm sure. Also: consensus.

    1. Re:Vague News by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25540040 ...
      Seventy-four scientists, tourists and crew are on the Shokalskiy. ...
      Despite being trapped, the scientists have continued their experiments, measuring temperature and salinity through cracks in the surrounding ice. ...
      The goal of the modern-day Australasian Antarctic Expedition is to repeat many of the original measurements and studies of the Mawson expedition to see how facets of the environment have changed over the past century. ...

      Completely neglected? Are we looking at the same BBC reports?

    2. Re:Vague News by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because by doing so, they support the CONservatives, and that is morally wrong.

    3. Re:Vague News by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The goal of the modern-day Australasian Antarctic Expedition is to repeat many of the original measurements and studies of the Mawson expedition to see how facets of the environment have changed over the past century.

      The goal of the modern-day Australian Slashdot "editor" is to get his totally uninteresting and irrelevant nation discussed as many times as possible on Slashdot.

    4. Re:Vague News by dbIII · · Score: 1

      The forgot the term "heathen warlock" or whatever the deniers are calling scientists these days.

    5. Re:Vague News by dbIII · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Even if we are totally uninteresting and irrelevant there's quite a few people from there reading this site and adding stuff while your part of the world is asleep. That's why.

    6. Re:Vague News by approachingZero+ · · Score: 1

      You actually used the word you are trying to think of - deniers. Those people aren't scientists, they're an experiment. Double blind study. What you need to ask yourself and your denier friends is how much more obvious does a situation have to be before you admit you're wrong?

      --
      'I don't know what it's called. I just know the sound it makes, when it takes a man's life.' ~ Four Leaf Tayback
    7. Re:Vague News by torsmo · · Score: 1

      Still, it's taking Xue Long to get them out.

    8. Re:Vague News by Megane · · Score: 2

      I guess with all the global warming conferences that happened during cold snaps, this just got too boringly regular and isn't news anymore.

      Hypothesis: global warming scientists attract cold weather. This clearly means we need more of them!

      --
      #naabhaprzrag, #sverubfr-000, #agi-fcbafberq, negvpyr[pynff*=' negvpyr-ary-'] { qvfcynl: abar !vzcbegnag; }
    9. Re:Vague News by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not global warming now. It's climate change. The new idea is whatever the anomaly it is our fault.

    10. Re:Vague News by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Um, dbIII asked what term climate change deniers use for those who understand that climate change is real, and your response is "deniers"? Did you not understand what dbIII was asking, or were you just trying to not-so-subtly imply that climate change is fiction, and that those who say it is real are the actual deniers?

    11. Re:Vague News by Optali · · Score: 1

      And you forgot to think that when it's cold in Antratica the ice is happily frozen on the continent ;)
      And that when the ice is swimming in the water and screwing up ships it's because it is not in the continent any more. How?
      UFO? A million of IPCC minions cutting it into pieces and throwing it into the ocean? Or just plain old melting?

      I assume that it's options 1 and 2, of course. We all know that the Illuminati Pokemon Collectors Club (IPCC) is behind the UFO and is using millions of abducted slaves to break the ice in Antarctica into pieces in in order to hinder the navigation so that nobody could get there and see the Truth. the fact that the people stuck in the ships are Evil Minions themselves just proves how Evil the Illuminati are!!!

      OMG!!! Where are we going to???

      --
      -- 29A the number of the Beast
    12. Re:Vague News by Optali · · Score: 1

      BBC? This is a Liberal TV Station paid by Obama and the Climate Lobby with the only aim of getting the tax money of the hardworking Americans.

      --
      -- 29A the number of the Beast
  3. Re:Australian Icebreaker by DarkOx · · Score: 2

    Yea and Ice breaker should do one thing and do it well oh and be a file.

    --
    Repeal the 17th Amendment TODAY! Also Please Read http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
  4. They're fucked... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...They're just FUCKED, man!

  5. Aurora Australis by bloodhawk · · Score: 5, Informative

    Web cam for Aurora, hopefully will be on when they are getting close http://www.antarctica.gov.au/webcams/aurora '

    1. Re:Aurora Australis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Pity the most powerful nuclear icebreaker in the world Yamal only operates in the Northern hemisphere.

    2. Re:Aurora Australis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why? Aurora Australis looks like it can do the job.

    3. Re:Aurora Australis by XaXXon · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I was wondering why they only operate in the northern hemisphere.

      It's because it requires cold water to cool its reactor. Tropic water is apparently not cold enough, so it can't get to the southern hemisphere without exploderating. Or something.

  6. I thought that... by ls671 · · Score: 0, Troll

    I thought that allmost all the ice had melted away...

    --
    Everything I write is lies, read between the lines.
    1. Re:I thought that... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You obviously don't understand what "warming" refers to. Here's a hint: It doesn't mean all ice all over the world is suddenly gone. It DOES mean that rising ocean temperatures have seriously fucked up ocean life, as you can see by price trends in seafood, massive overpopulation of lobsters in New England, dearth of shrimp in historically abundant areas, etc.

    2. Re:I thought that... by dkleinsc · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yes, of course: Because when the average temperature in December rises from -18 C to -16 C means that it's impossible for water to even consider freezing.

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    3. Re:I thought that... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're thinking of the north pole, where the amount of seasonal ice has reduced each year.

    4. Re:I thought that... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      massive overpopulation of lobsters in New England,

      That doesn't sound like a problem to me. Lobsters are delicious.

    5. Re:I thought that... by Mashiki · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I dunno. The flappy headed environmentalists have been telling us for years(closer to decades) that there will be no ice in the arctic or antarctic. And the met centre in the UK went as far as to say a few years ago that "snow would be a thing of the past, and would only be read about in books." If there was a great fraud being perpetrated that people are cluing in on, then it would be the doom and gloom hoax of our lifetime.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    6. Re:I thought that... by dbIII · · Score: 3, Informative

      or antarctic

      No they did not. If that happens most of us are going to need really long snorkels. If you are going to suggest that others are lying it's best not to lie to do so - otherwise you come off as being dishonest.

    7. Re: I thought that... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, I'm pretty sure a rising population and overfishing are the main worries for our sea life.

    8. Re:I thought that... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No I clearly remember reading tons of stories about ice in the antarctic melting and dropping off in huge sheets being used as proof of warming. I did a quick look and according to "scientists" melting ice in the antarctic is one of the biggest long-term hazards of global warming.

      NYT story

      So he wasn't lying, but you are.

    9. Re:I thought that... by approachingZero+ · · Score: 0

      Yup. The deniers will deny it now but that's the incontrovertible truth.

      --
      'I don't know what it's called. I just know the sound it makes, when it takes a man's life.' ~ Four Leaf Tayback
    10. Re:I thought that... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Global warming is just a theory.

    11. Re:I thought that... by C0R1D4N · · Score: 1

      There would be more usable land on Earth if all the ice caps melted, not less. A lot of people would have to relocate, but the process would be more than slow enough to adjust.

    12. Re:I thought that... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yep. Like gravity.

    13. Re:I thought that... by PortHaven · · Score: 2

      Except, I can prove Gravity and replicate its affect. And predict it with a reasonable amount of accuracy.

      None of which can be done with global warming.

    14. Re:I thought that... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, of course: Because when the average temperature in December rises from -18 C to -16 C means that it's impossible for water to even consider freezing.

      +1 - Mod parent up. I have to agree. It probably is impossible. From my experience water is prone to freezing as a result of a drop in the temperature, not the other way around.

    15. Re:I thought that... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Antarctica is an archeapelago. Just islands under that ice, not a continent.

    16. Re:I thought that... by mythosaz · · Score: 1
    17. Re:I thought that... by Kalriath · · Score: 1

      -18 to -16 is not a drop.

      --
      For a site about things like basic rights, Slashdot users sure do like to censor "dissent".
    18. Re:I thought that... by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      No they did not.

      Really? Odd that I've run across no less than two stories today claiming just that. One from atmos.uiuc, and the other via climate change websites. Can't remember where I saw the last but oh yes, those doom and gloom folks are reporting just that. Don't worry if it doesn't fit your narrative.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    19. Re:I thought that... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You apparently need to practice your reading comprehension skills.

  7. Send the American icebreaker! by rbrander · · Score: 0

    The good ship "Paul Ryan", which will anchor safely off the ice pack and send them pictures of the sailors aboard enjoying fine meals and swimming pools to give them incentive to break free of the ice on their own! We do these people no favours, killing them with kindness by "helping" them out of the jam they got themselves in. We can't have these ships oppressing us with their pleas of imminent personal disaster. ...and you thought that this one topic surely couldn't be dragged into American political crank-fests. My next post: how all this relates to gun control.

    1. Re:Send the American icebreaker! by growingtedium · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I do wonder who is going to be paying for these rescue attempts.

    2. Re:Send the American icebreaker! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      A tiny bit of money is not even worth mentioning if you can help someone out with a serious problem.
      Especially if it buys you a lot of positive publicity and goodwill, which you would mostly lose again if you brought up the issue of money.

      That is who it works for people, and it that is also how it works in international relations.
      Therefor the Chinese and Australian taxpayer will likely pay for it.

    3. Re: Send the American icebreaker! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Sailors live with the shared knowledge that they can easily suffer a similar fate. I believe rescue is part of the maritime laws. Even in war, enemies are rescued.

    4. Re: Send the American icebreaker! by BancBoy · · Score: 4, Informative

      As regards US Maritime law, I can offer this -

      Copy and pasted from http://www.maritimeinjurylawyersblog.com/2013/02/rescues_at_sea_the_united_stat.html

      According to federal law, 45 USC Section 2304, the master of a vessel must aid anyone at sea who is in danger of losing their lives, as long as such rescue can be performed without serious threat to the master, the master’s vessel, and those on board. However, maritime law is in agreement with common law in that an individual, including a vessel master, has this statutory duty to assist those in peril at sea only when a certain relationship exists, such as carrier/passenger, vessel/seaman, and employer/employee; also, whoever has caused a danger at sea must aid any persons or property they have endangered. Further, whether because of an established relationship or as a Good Samaritan, if an individual attempts a rescue which results in further harm due to negligence, recklessness, or wantonness, he or she may be held liable for damages.

      --
      [UID-HeinzIntel]
    5. Re:Send the American icebreaker! by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 3, Funny

      I think we need to pause and think about the what's really behind the story here:

      The Russians put our camera made by our German scientists and your film made by your German scientists into their satellite made by their German scientists.

      This rescue will end when the a US nuclear submarine pops up through the ice sheet, and a bunch of marines in snow gear jump out. But then a Russian airplane will toss out a bunch of paratroopers in snow gear will land.

      A suspenseful standoff is guaranteed . . .

      This stranded tourists and scientists story is just a cover for the public to hide what is really going on . . .

      --
      Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
    6. Re:Send the American icebreaker! by techno-vampire · · Score: 1

      Can't the fucking coast Guard runs USAian icebreakers. They could not sail themselves outside a toilet bowl.

      Didn't you know that everybody in the Coast Guard has to be over six feet tall? That way, if their ship ever sinks, they can wade ashore.

      --
      Good, inexpensive web hosting
    7. Re:Send the American icebreaker! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I see Ice Station Zebra is finally being played out.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_Station_Zebra_%28novel%29

    8. Re:Send the American icebreaker! by PortHaven · · Score: 1

      Maybe if the U.S. government would budget some funds for the U.S. Coast Guard instead of blowing trillions on a dozen aircraft carriers that will all be sunk in the first 2 weeks of a war.

  8. Re:Antarctica ... Ice by mysidia · · Score: 1

    Some Antarctic ice thickening after massive Arctic ice thinning, is still a net global climate change; with plenty of potential ramifications --- most likely highly negative ramifications; when it comes to world climates: climate change = potential extinctions.

  9. Copyrighted materials of the Church Of Warminetics by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 4, Funny

    Naturally, the appearance in the middle of the summer of ice so thick that the icebreakers of multiple polefaring nations cannot penetrate it is proof of anthropogenic warming. You criticize our teachings in any way, and we will beat you to death with our sacred hockey sticks in the East District of Texas. Meanwhile, our last hope is to send in Chuck Norris with a shipload of thermite.

  10. Re:Antarctica ... Ice by Freultwah · · Score: 2

    Risking a whoosh: South - penguins, North - polar bears. The northern ice extent has been receding dramatically over the past decades. Economically, it can be a boon, what with the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage opening up, but the hapless animals will eventually have to suck it up and go extinct.

  11. How is ice forming in the summer? by Billly+Gates · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I am aware Antarctica is one of the coldest places on earth, yet when I lived 60 degrees away from the equator in Alaska it never got down to 7F (the degree in which salt water freezes) by summer. It would not even hit freezing until September or October?!This is not 90 degrees on the dead center of the geographic south pole or anything and is surrounded by water which moderates the climate.

    The ice should be rapidly melting?!

    1. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by GumphMaster · · Score: 5, Informative

      The ice-strengthened vessel is within 100nm of Dumont D'Urville with a typical December daytime temperature hovering around freezing (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT60803/IDT60803.89642.shtml). This ice did not suddenly appear in clear water because it got cold, the ship was sailing through broken ice floes when weather conditions pushed the ice and the ship into tight formation. The water between the sheets froze and the rest, as they say, is history.

      --
      Patent litigation: A doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction... in which everyone seems willing to push the button
    2. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by Pav · · Score: 2

      The southern hemisphere is generally cooler. Take for instance the mediterranian climate. In the USA at the same latitude you have California with a roughly equivalent climate. In the south we have Tasmania for example which is significantly cooler.

    3. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Tasmania is cooler because it is further south not because the southern hemisphere is cooler. Hobart is 42 south while Los Angeles is 34 north.

    4. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by CrankyFool · · Score: 3, Funny

      At that kind of distance, is it really even worth mentioning? If I'm 100 nanometers away from something, I don't say "I'm 100nm away from X," I say "I'm right next to X." Why don't they just disembark now?

    5. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I believe nm in this case refers to nautical mile not nano-meter or they would do just that.

    6. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by Pav · · Score: 1

      Both Hobart and Los Angeles are at the southern ends of their respective states which makes that comparison a misleading one.

    7. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by dbIII · · Score: 1

      There's a lot of sea ice down there. Some of it is centuries old at least.

    8. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I believe nm in this case refers to nautical mile not nano-meter or they would do just that.

      Why on earth would any of them leave their warm, dry, well-stocked and safe ships to walk out onto sea ice in freezing conditions? Oh yeah, because THAT WOULD BE STUPID.

    9. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by Billly+Gates · · Score: 1

      But it is growing.

      60 degrees south is about equivalent to Alaska distance from the equator. It is 20C or 68F on average inland during the summer at this time. Not 7F. The ice which plenty is left at that latitude is still there but is rapidly melting which it does from glacial run off. They do not grow by June which is the same as December down at that latitude.

      In fact with 20 hours of daylight rapid melt would be the logical conclusion as the water would be warming up and not cooling to form thicker ice at the warmest time of the year.

    10. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by Billly+Gates · · Score: 1

      He is implying latitude.

      42 degrees from the equator is about where New York City and Chicago are which get snow and significant winters. If it is Mediterranean that far then that is very warm for that latitude.

    11. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by ChunderDownunder · · Score: 1

      A comparison of San Francisco and Melbourne would be more apt - both 37 degrees adrift of the equator.

    12. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When you put ice cubes in your warm drink, they are melting, yet at the same time, they are still there. Imagine that. Then they can float around too, like on the ocean. On the ocean they tend to float around by a phenomenon that's called wind. Wind blows ice around and if you are not careful or just unlucky, you'll get yourself stuck or worse. You can have a nice channel between ice one minute, and then wind switches, and it makes something like this out of your channel,

          http://www.geo.mtu.edu/great_lakes/ice/IMAGES/ICE_PHOTOS/KEW_BAY1/pressure_ridge3.jpg

      At least they are not crushed by ice like many expeditions of the past.

      So either an ice breaker will get to them (it may not if ice is too thick), or they will have to wait for the ice pack to shift. That can take a while but they will most likely not be stuck there until next summer. It's not even the warmest part of the year in Antarctica.

      PS. Alaska is much warmer than Antarctica. Lack of trees in Antarctica is one giveaway.

      PPS. This event has absolutely, positively nothing to do with AGW like some poasters are talking about. Just some floating ice and wind.

    13. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by Pav · · Score: 1

      What disengenuous examples! Hobart is cold DESPITE its location ie. adjacent to the warm Eastern Australian current. The California current should make California colder than it is, yet most of the Californian coast is classified as mediterranean. Sure, Chicago has a more hot/cold extreme inland climate, and New York gets its winter weather from inland also, but a Mediterranian climate is all about the ocean.

    14. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      C'mon, this is /. he was being extra precise so that you fuckers would not pick on him and now you are picking on him for being precise. However, I still do not know how far away that is in football fields. WTF???

    15. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by SleazyRidr · · Score: 1

      If you're less than a millimetre away from the research base you're trying to reach, leaving your ship would seem to be the appropriate course of action.

    16. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by ggraham412 · · Score: 1

      It could have something to do with salinity. Typical seawater freezes at about -2 C because of the high salt content, but if the local salinity has dropped because of the introduction of a large amount of fresh meltwater then it might freeze closer to 0 C. Warming could lead to more meltwater, lower salinity and therefore more ice under certain specific conditions.

      The article states that the crew is measuring both temperature and salinity, so we'll find out if the conditions are met and that is a possible explanation. I'm not holding my breath though...

    17. Re:How is ice forming in the summer? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How is ice forming in the summer?

      Damn yo, you really need to invest in one of those new "combo refrigerator/freezer" thingies...

      http://home.howstuffworks.com/freezer.htm

  12. Re:Antarctica ... Ice by gargleblast · · Score: 2

    Risking a whoosh ...

    Relax. Comments as idiotic as AC's make a dull thud, not a whoosh.

    Hey AC: Want to hang out with like minded people giggling inanely until they wet themselves? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/29/saving-the-antarctic-scientists-er-media-er-activists-er-tourists-trapped-by-sea-ice/#more-100034.

  13. Re:Antarctica ... Ice by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    No polar bears in the Antarctic.

    Penguins: Yes
    Polar bears: No

  14. I hope by JustOK · · Score: 3, Funny

    I hope they don't get eaten by the polar bears

    --
    rewriting history since 2109
    1. Re:I hope by WaxItYourself · · Score: 1

      I think you mean the penguins. there are no polar bears in Antarctica.

    2. Re:I hope by KingOfBLASH · · Score: 1

      ARGH! KILLER PENGUINS!

    3. Re:I hope by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I hope they don't get eaten by the polar bears

      They wont. The polar bears would have to swim from the Arctic all the way down to Antartica.

      This should be a journey of many years for a polar bear.

      The people will have been freed by then.

    4. Re:I hope by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Whooooosh!

    5. Re:I hope by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How the fuck do you know. Have you ever been to Antartica. All the polar bear researchers who went there looking for polar bear never came back. Maybe they were eaten. Maybe they are hiding under the ice waiting to eat these researchers. There have been penguins who have hitched a rid on boats and been found in the arctic waters. Maybe a polar bear hitched a ride on a boat and is quitely living in antartica unbenowst to all the intrepid researchers who are stuck in ice.

    6. Re:I hope by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How do you know. Maybe they hitched a ride on a boat. Could happen.

    7. Re:I hope by JustOK · · Score: 1

      Never heard of the polar express?

      --
      rewriting history since 2109
    8. Re:I hope by Anubis+IV · · Score: 1

      Then why are they called POLAR bears if they're not at the South Pole? Hmm? Yeah, I can see your mouth agape at my impugnable FACTS and LOGIC. It's fine, I get that a lot.

    9. Re:I hope by Cochonou · · Score: 1

      As a matter of fact, the ship is already surrounded by penguins. What these mischievous beasts are up to can hardly be imagined...

    10. Re:I hope by kevingolding2001 · · Score: 1

      I don't think polar bears or penguins can fly.

    11. Re:I hope by marcello_dl · · Score: 1

      > Then why are they called POLAR bears if they're not at the South Pole?
      ask the cartesian bears.

      --
      ---- MISSING MISCELLANEOUS DATA SEGMENT --- [sigdash] trolololol
    12. Re:I hope by WaxItYourself · · Score: 1

      Sorry. Polar bears are not 'bi-polar'

  15. Thanks for the links by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    At least no one on board the MV Akademik Shokalskiy is sick or injured. Hopefully they have enough supplies to last a few more days.

    1. Re:Thanks for the links by plover · · Score: 1

      How many researchers in a 'shipload'?

      --
      John
    2. Re: Thanks for the links by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In addition to the Russian crew of 22, the expedition team consists of 18 professional scientists from Australia and New Zealand, and 22 volunteer science assistants. They are members of the public, ranging in age from their 20s to their 70s. They paid to join the scientific adventureâ¦

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25519059

    3. Re:Thanks for the links by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 2

      And it's a metric shipload.

    4. Re:Thanks for the links by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      depends in descending Order mekins, Limeys or krauts? 2 or 3. Nips about 12

  16. Re:Antarctica ... Ice by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Seriously, it's pretty easy to see extent values on the web. Antarctic is 1.5 million sq. km over average. Arctic is 0.6 million sq. km under average right now. Net = .9 million sq. km over average.

  17. engineering reality by harvey+the+nerd · · Score: 2, Funny

    A boatload of CAGW scientists can't engineer their way out of the ice in the middle of the summer in the Academik. An extra half a million square miles of ice that's not supposed to be there. Stuck about 3500 miles south of Darwin. Awards all around.

    1. Re:engineering reality by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Get out and walk?

  18. Vauge conclusions by sjbe · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I love how the NYT and BBC reports on this story completely neglect to mention that the stuck ship is full of climate scientists out to gather global warming evidence.

    Just like you are vaguely hinting that locally colder than usual weather somehow is evidence that the climate is not changing. Do you have any conception of the difference between climate and weather?

    1. Re:Vauge conclusions by Kernel+Kurtz · · Score: 3, Insightful

      But scientists have been equating ice levels with climate for decades.....

    2. Re:Vauge conclusions by dinog · · Score: 4, Informative
      I'll help you finish that thought :

      But scientists have been equating ice levels with climate for decades.....

      ... and the average ice levels have been falling dramatically in most locations over the long term.

    3. Re:Vauge conclusions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And Gore told us scientists had proof the Arctic would be ice free by 2013.

      Lets tally the results so far:
      AGW correct predictions - 0
      AGW incorrect prediction - 1340

      Well, I'm going to use the scientific method and not listen to people who are ALWAYS wrong when they predict doom and gloom unless I am taxed more.

    4. Re:Vauge conclusions by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 3, Funny

      Remember, boys and girls: melting ice proves that the climate is warming up; freezing ice in midsummer, on the other hand, proves that the climate is warming up.

    5. Re:Vauge conclusions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Taking a cue from the Alarmists,....when there's a drought, lots of tornadoes, a hurricane, lots of rain, that's climate.

      When it's cold, lots of snow, lots of rain...that's weather.

    6. Re:Vauge conclusions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sorry if it's just me, but this is hilarious and needs to be modded up as funny.

    7. Re:Vauge conclusions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Assuming you mean Al Gore, he is not a climatologist so his opinion on this matter is as irrelevant as mine or yours. Among climatologists the consensus is that there is global warming. Of course there are a few that disagree, just like a few biologists disagree about macro-evolution.
      I know facts won't change your religious beliefs, just please do not call it scientific.

    8. Re: Vauge conclusions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He got a Nobel prize for his 'contributions'

    9. Re: Vauge conclusions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That doesn't make him a climatologist.

    10. Re:Vauge conclusions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I thought the deniers were just saying it's not getting warmer. That's not the same as saying the climate is not changing.

    11. Re:Vauge conclusions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You do not know what "long term" means.

    12. Re: Vauge conclusions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So far over $39 Billion has been spent to "prove" there is global warming! The amount spent to question global warming? Zero$..... remember when science was skeptical... And examined both sides?

  19. Re:LIAR! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ROFL!

  20. Alll the news.... by westlake · · Score: 1

    I love how the NYT and BBC reports on this story completely neglect to mention that the stuck ship is full of climate scientists out to gather global warming evidence. Just a complete oversight I'm sure.

    On Twitter, Documenting an Antarctic Journey and a Countdown to a Rescue

    Four embedded videos from the expedition team. Including a seven minute introduction to the project.

  21. Skip the boat? by nurb432 · · Score: 1

    Being serious here, since they are stuck in an ice pack, is it stable enough to get as close as possible then drive out to rescue them? Sure, you will lose the ship as its crushed into oblivion, but you will save the human lives.

    No, i haven't seen overhead pictures, thus the question.

    --
    ---- Booth was a patriot ----
    1. Re:Skip the boat? by Overzeetop · · Score: 1

      Yeah, I was wondering about an air rescue if there are only 74 people on board. I mean, the ice is thick enough to strand a large ship and prevent the passage of an ice breaker, it should easily hold the weight of a large military transport helicopter.

      --
      Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
    2. Re:Skip the boat? by dbIII · · Score: 1

      Range sucks with those things in comparison to the vast distances. You'd probably need an icebreaking aircraft carrier to get it near enough. It's not as if they could just fly one of those things in from Capetown or Hobart and expect it to get there let alone back again.

    3. Re:Skip the boat? by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

      That is likely why, according to TFA, that the Chinese icebreaker - which happens to have a helicopter - is standing by even though it can't ram through the ice.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    4. Re:Skip the boat? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The ship is not in any immediate danger: it is a Finnish built ship designed to operate in conditions of ice, although it is not an icebreaker itself. It is not being crushed. It's just stuck. The ice is a couple meters thick and the people on the ship could climb off and trudge to safety if there were some imminent danger. If they didn't want to do that -- and it would be hard to fault them for not savoring the prospect of trudging half a dozen miles across shifting pack ice -- they could hitch a ride on the Chinese icebreaker's helicopter, or perhaps one of the helicopters that the Aurora Australis may be carrying (I haven't heard specifically if the Australian icebreaker is carrying a helicopter on this expedition). They'd much prefer, however, to get the ship unstuck so it can get on with its voyage. Waiting for the ice to clear by itself could take a lot longer than the passengers and crew might like to wait.

      The greatest dynamic here may be the winds, since they're what's causing the pack ice to congregate where it's at. As the winds shift and moderate the pack ice will open back up, the icebreakers will be able to get through, and the ship will be able to proceed. There is evidence the weather and ice conditions are already moderating.

    5. Re:Skip the boat? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The greatest dynamic here may be the winds, since they're what's causing the pack ice to congregate where it's at. As the winds shift and moderate the pack ice will open back up, the icebreakers will be able to get through, and the ship will be able to proceed. There is evidence the weather and ice conditions are already moderating.

      Isn't this the same situation that trapped Shackleton and the rest of the crew of Endurance ~100 years ago?
          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endurance_(1912_ship)

    6. Re:Skip the boat? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes...ish. It seems the general circumstances are similar, but aside from being caught in wind driven pack ice there are plenty of differences that are probably relevant to the eventual outcome. For example, the Endurance was wooden rather than steel, didn't enjoy the benefits of 100 years of engineering progress in designing and building ice-rated hulls, there were not three large Antarctic icebreakers nearby to help free Endurance if conditions had ever allowed, and the Endurance was stuck for the better part of a year before finally being crushed.

      The real moral of the story may be that conditions in the Antarctic are harsh even in the summer and pack ice can change very quickly, with the latter holding the possibility of either help or a hindrance.

    7. Re:Skip the boat? by necro81 · · Score: 1

      is it stable enough to get as close as possible then drive out to rescue them

      The ship got trapped because broken sea ice got crunched together by wind and waves around them, then froze in place. Moving ice does not freeze together into nice smooth sheets that are amenable to driving on. As the wind and waves continue to work, the ice surface will buckle, heavy, split, reform, and generally create a confused mess that make for difficult headway even afoot. Check out some of the pictures from Shackleton's Endurance expedition.

      Then, too: how many ocean going ships just so happen to have big burly motorized vehicles for just such an occasion? An ice breaker is more likely to have a helicopter than a 4x4 Jeep.

  22. Re:Copyrighted materials of the Church Of Warminet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    multiple polefaring nations

    That is an awesome phrase. Really opens up my vocabulary. Just think, the United States is one of only two great lake faring nations. What must those Alpsfaring nations think of us?

  23. Two standard deviations more by jamesl · · Score: 4, Informative

    The Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is currently more than two standard deviations greater than the 1981 to 2010 average according to the NSIDC.
    http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png

    Not what one would expect in a warming climate. Or maybe it is ... ex post.
    Antarctica Sea Ice Reaches Record High: Doesn't Refute Global Warming
    http://guardianlv.com/2013/09/antarctic-sea-ice-at-record-high-doesnt-refute-global-warming/

    1. Re:Two standard deviations more by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

      Meh...nothing refutes global warming. Even when there hasn't been any in the last 18 years

    2. Re:Two standard deviations more by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      We could have an iceball earth scenario next year, and the surviving "climate scientists" would STILL claim it was CO2 emissions causing it.

      You're so busy building and knocking down that "straw man" that I'm surprised you heroically took the time to post your "thoughts".

      Now, GTFO of this tech site and go to some Young Earth Creationist site where the fruits of science are properly mocked.

      Asshole.

    3. Re:Two standard deviations more by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This argument bugs me. I can prove human evolution a hundred different ways, with instruments ranging from a shovel to a PCR machine. It is trivial to demonstrate that Creationists are stupid. But I can't prove anthropogenic climate change with anything but a computer model... and I've made too many computer models in my day for that to be very convincing.

    4. Re:Two standard deviations more by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're so busy building and knocking down that "straw man" that I'm surprised you heroically took the time to post your "thoughts".

      Now, GTFO of this tech site and go to some Young Earth Creationist site where the fruits of science are properly mocked.

      Asshole.

      Why are there so many Young Earth Global Warmists sprouting their religious beliefs and demanding that everyone should abide by their pseudo scientific doctrines? And why do they always resort to insults when the evidence presented discredits their said beliefs?

    5. Re:Two standard deviations more by Maow · · Score: 2

      But I can't prove anthropogenic climate change with anything but a computer model... and I've made too many computer models in my day for that to be very convincing.

      Have you seen climate models, or do you just deny the ones that you don't like due to your standard of "truthiness"?

      Ars Technica covers climate models nicely: (see page 2)

      Steve Easterbrook, a professor of computer science at the University of Toronto, has been studying climate models for several years. “I'd done a lot of research in the past studying the development of commercial and open source software systems, including four years with NASA studying the verification and validation processes used on their spacecraft flight control software,” he told Ars.

      When Easterbrook started looking into the processes followed by climate modeling groups, he was surprised by what he found. “I expected to see a messy process, dominated by quick fixes and muddling through, as that's the typical practice in much small-scale scientific software. What I found instead was a community that takes very seriously the importance of rigorous testing, and which is already using most of the tools a modern software development company would use (version control, automated testing, bug tracking systems, a planned release cycle, etc.).”

      “I was blown away by the testing process that every proposed change to the model has to go through,” Easterbrook wrote. “Basically, each change is set up like a scientific experiment, with a hypothesis describing the expected improvement in the simulation results. The old and new versions of the code are then treated as the two experimental conditions. They are run on the same simulations, and the results are compared in detail to see if the hypothesis was correct. Only after convincing each other that the change really does offer an improvement is it accepted into the model baseline.”

    6. Re:Two standard deviations more by Maow · · Score: 1

      Replying to self: broken link == missing link:

      Ars Technica climate model coverage

    7. Re:Two standard deviations more by PortHaven · · Score: 2

      If climate models were accurate, their predictions would be accurate. All of the models have failed on their predictions. This means, they are inaccurate and are not accurately reflecting the real world model.

    8. Re:Two standard deviations more by Maow · · Score: 1

      If climate models were accurate, their predictions would be accurate. All of the models have failed on their predictions. This means, they are inaccurate and are not accurately reflecting the real world model.

      They don't make predictions, they make projections; if you can't get that right, you're worse than the climate models.

      Similar to confusing weather with climate.

      Newtonian physics doesn't make accurate predictions (at relativistic speeds, for example), but it's still accurate (enough) for models. Or was Isaac Newton a "physicist" instead of a physicist because he didn't cover all cases?

  24. Re:Antarctica ... Ice by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What's the volumetric difference?

    Also why use ice area/volume as a standard of the global temperature?

  25. Australian Icebreaker by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    How about them Hockeyroos?

  26. Get to da choppa by Hamsterdan · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Seriously, anyone thought about rescuing them using helicopters? Rescue the people, worry about the ship later...

    --
    I've got better things to do tonight than die.
    1. Re:Get to da choppa by tapi0 · · Score: 0

      they don't need 'rescuing' the ship needs freeing from the ice, but the ship is perfectly safe, the crew and passengers healthy, and enough supplies to last a good time yet. If anything happens and any emergency evacuation is needed then there is helicopter rescue in place.

    2. Re:Get to da choppa by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I read an article stating that they do in fact have helicopters within reach if it comes down to that. I gather the stuck ship has enough resources to sustain the crew for quite some time.

    3. Re:Get to da choppa by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Chinese helicopter (actually a Russian Kamov of some kind) have been shown on TV flying about the Russian ship.

      The problem is not extracting the 80 or so people, especially if they are only 10 km away.
      There are probably land vehicles on the rescue ships that can be dispatched, that would be the most efficient means of rescue.
      The problem is if the stricken ship in left unmanned, it'll probably never be recovered (more Antarctic junk).

    4. Re:Get to da choppa by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It sounds like Dune 2. Maybe they should begin building some kind of windtraps and small two wheeled units or buggies. At this point the can begin exploring the surrounding lands. Then they could build larger buildings, and begin producing and storing food. And so on. Not a bad life either..

  27. Re:Antarctica ... Ice by Rockoon · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Also why use ice area/volume as a standard of the global temperature?

    ..perhaps because for years we have been told that shrinking ice area/volume was a standard indicator of global warming.

    --
    "His name was James Damore."
  28. Just like FRAM? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Arctic (and Antarctic) scientists used to deliberately let their ship be frozen in over winter. Some guy on the ship was interviewed on NPR a couple days ago.. they have months of food, water, and fuel. It's more an inconvenience than a problem right now.

  29. By November by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The last of the hapless crew having survived through cannibalism will die. Thus the un-happy fate of the 'anthropocene' "researchers" will end. A nasty tale on a nastier fallacy of Anthropogenic Global Warming.

    1. Re:By November by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

      The last of the hapless crew having survived through cannibalism will die. Thus the un-happy fate of the 'anthropocene' "researchers" will end. A nasty tale on a nastier fallacy of Anthropogenic Global Warming.

      You trying to write a screen play or are you just an idiot?

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  30. That Australian Ice Breaker ... by Taco+Cowboy · · Score: 2

    ... Aurora Australis hasn't been reporting its location since Christmas day.

    The latest reported location for that vessel was recorded at 2013-12-25 07:33:00 (UTC), while it was at the latitude/longitude of: -65.78115 / 109.8082, with speed and course of 13.8 kn / 4Â, according to http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:109.8082/centery:-65.78115/zoom:8/oldmmsi:503043000/olddate:lastknown

    --
    Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
  31. What do they know, right? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So-called 'scientists' keep claiming that the sun is a source of heat, but when I get closer to the sun by climbing mountains it gets colder.

    Explain that, eggheads.

  32. It has been thought of by Taco+Cowboy · · Score: 2

    Seriously, anyone thought about rescuing them using helicopters?

    That has been thought of, and is being considered as the last resort.

    The Chinese ice breaker, the Xue Long (Ice Dragon) has a chopper on board, and the vessel is only some 7KM away from the Russian vessel.

    --
    Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
  33. Re:Vague conclusions by ApplePy · · Score: 0

    I have seen articles by two different scientists in my local paper... one alleging that our recent floods were proof of global warming... the other claiming proof of global warming in the decade-long drought.

    Rain, snow, ice, drought, wind, hurricanes, no hurricanes, tornadoes, no tornadoes, heat, cold, record highs, record lows -- ALL proof of global warming.

    In fact, it doesn't matter what the weather does. Global Warming (TM) is real because it makes weather change, and the weather is changing, so Global Warming (TM) is real.

    And remember, kids, God never lies, but he put dinosaur bones here to test your faith. He can't lie to you because He's God.

    --
    That I'm right, and you don't like it, doesn't mean I'm a troll.
  34. Re:Antarctica ... Ice by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The penguins ate all the polar bears in the Antarctic.

    Be afraid. Be very afraid. :-p

  35. Irony by Charcharodon · · Score: 0

    Climate scientists on their way to study Global Warming, get stuck in the ice. They must have kicked a puppy to have karma that bad.

    1. Re:Irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      More like.. they know what they are doing, knew this could happen and are prepared for it..
      Looks like every Slashdotter is a specialist in every possible science..

    2. Re:Irony by PortHaven · · Score: 0

      Right, cause good preperation results in abandoning ship.

  36. Re:Antarctica ... Ice by gargleblast · · Score: 0

    ..perhaps because for years we have been told that shrinking ice area/volume was a standard indicator of global warming.

    ... perhaps because for years deniers have been looking for observations that buck the trend.

  37. Re:Antarctica ... Ice by crimson+tsunami · · Score: 2

    Yes Virginia - Polar Bears can swim and run on the ever thickening Ice!

    I'm sure they can
    But I'm also pretty sure they cant swim all the way to Antarctica .

  38. Re:Antarctica ... Ice by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ..perhaps because for years we have been told that shrinking ice area/volume was a standard indicator of global warming.

    By who? Under what conditions? With what verification?

  39. Re:Copyrighted materials of the Church Of Warminet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    So this is what basementfaring people are like.

  40. This again? by dbIII · · Score: 1

    Good to hear from a real climate scientist that knows their shit instead of a software developer telling every expert on the subject on the planet that they have got it wrong. Oh wait - looks like I got that backwards.

    This sort of shit is not funny any more and just makes the people spreading it look like morons. They don't seem to understand that their arguments against expertise are undermining themselves unless they are also mediocre at what they do. To the above poster - I suggest leaving it to the entertainers and idiots in politics instead of indirectly shooting yourself in the foot.

  41. Dr Stranglelove quote is appropriate by dbIII · · Score: 1

    Ambassador de Sadesky: There were those of us who fought against it, but in the end we could not keep up with the expense involved in the arms race, the space race, and the peace race. At the same time our people grumbled for more nylons and washing machines. Our doomsday scheme cost us just a small fraction of what we had been spending on defense in a single year. The deciding factor was when we learned that your country was working along similar lines, and we were afraid of a doomsday gap.

    President Merkin Muffley: This is preposterous. I've never approved of anything like that.

    Ambassador de Sadesky: Our source was the New York Times.

  42. Troll??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    At least the Parent had the BALLS to say it...

  43. Re:Shhhh... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That's why I am posting this anonymously

    That's pretty funny David Miller, 52 Centennial Blvd., Saratoga, UT.

  44. Origin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's often common to refer to ships by the flag they sail under, but the research vessed Aurora Australis was actually designed and built by the Finns, so you could say it's a Finnish vessel, which kinda makes more sense than an Australian ice-breaker. And it's not a true ice-breaker, but another research vessel that happened to be in the vicinity; consequently at the time they, too, have been forced to back off. In a twist of irony (in the ironic sense of irony, I guess) the MV Akademik Shokalskiy is also Finnish-built, so it's actually a case of a Finnish research-vessel trying to save a Finnish research-vessel. Though right now it sounds like they're pretty much preparing to abandon ship and fly the crew to safety on the Chinese Snow Dragon once weather allows.

  45. Re:Antarctica ... Ice by Loki_1929 · · Score: 2

    ... perhaps because for years deniers have been looking for observations that buck the trend.

    Strange, when I was a kid, we called looking for observations that counter a scientific theory "science".

    --
    -- "Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else."
  46. Year of Linux on the desktop by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It may indirectly help Linux grow on the desktop, because of the increased visibility of penguins during this operation. Maybe 2014 will be the year ?
    You know..like free advertisement, like when they use Macbook Pros in TV series.

  47. Re:Antarctica ... Ice by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This may have something to do with the difference between the Artic and the Antarctic. Increased temperatures have two different effects: they cause ice to melt; but they also increase evaporation of surrounding seawater, which increases moisture content in the atmosphere, which increases snowfall and hence the accumulation of new ice.

    For some reason (possibly because the Antarctic is on land, so it can't melt from underneath?), the first effect dominates for the Arctic, and the second effect dominates for the Antarctic. Take a look here (and search down to the plot under the text "Antarctic Sea Ice Extent"). The long-term trend, over the last three decades, is for Arctic ice to shrink and Antarctic ice to grow. This story, which relates to unusually thick ice in the Antarctic, is entirely consistent with this trend.

  48. What happens to the ship if they leave it? by swb · · Score: 1

    Is it trapped forever? Will the ice crush it and cause a nasty little fuel spill? Or is the ship's hull strong enough that it will just be frozen in place either forever or until it can be salvaged?

    1. Re:What happens to the ship if they leave it? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Looks like swb is an engineer or something..

  49. Re:Copyrighted materials of the Church Of Warminet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    winter just started in the northern hemisphere ( had a nice 75 degree day last week in va. havn't seen a frozen creek in years) doesn't that mean that summer just started in the southern hemisphere? not the "middle" of summer.

  50. NM by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I believe that means "Nautical Miles" as in maritime measurements

  51. Re:Shhhh... by StrangeBrew · · Score: 1

    I think you're proving his point. Was that your objective?

  52. Unusually thick ice???? by PortHaven · · Score: 1

    Huh...what?

    Global Warming, I thought all of the ice was unusually thin and melting? These must of been pretty dumb scientists. :-P

    1. Re:Unusually thick ice???? by PortHaven · · Score: 1

      This is what happens when you use GWA computer models on your GPS. But the computer models said this part of the ocean would be ice free by now....

  53. Nothing Refutes Global Warming by PortHaven · · Score: 1

    If the earth became a ball of ice. It would still be blamed on global warming. The only possible thing that could disprove global warming is if the earth suddenly went through a 10 year period of zero temperature change in any region. That is about the only thing that could disprove Global Warming.

    And if that happened, we'd have a much worse concern than global warming.

  54. No,... by PortHaven · · Score: 1

    None of those issues mentioned are due to global warming. Rather, they're due to overfishing. And have been a significant problem even during the 70's when cold had people talking a mini ice age.

    Heck, New England Cod has been in decline since before modern industry. Take the mismanagement of commercial fishing and multiply that by a population that is twice as big as it was in the 50's.

  55. BULLSHIT by PortHaven · · Score: 1

    First off, it's not locally vague. It's been documented globally.

    So here is the reason why Global Warming is bullshit science. It has zero ability to be proved.

    Any big storm, earthquake tsunami, hurricane, tornado, snow storm, heat wave, drought = PROOF OF GLOBAL WARMING

    But at the same time, GWA always decry local/regional not equal ...blah blah blah...you're such a stupid denier. Well you know what, we've shown major regional coolings. We've shown planetary coolings. Heck, we chould show you absolute proof. And you morons would still act the same.

    Global Warming Alarmists are simply, religious nutjobs on par with well religious nut jobs and Apple fanbois.

    1. Re: BULLSHIT by Occams · · Score: 1

      Global warming is about more heat being stored in the atmosphere. That means there is more energy in the complex global system that causes our weather. This extra energy causes the system to behave in a different way than we are used to. This leads to more unstable weather extremes of all kinds in the short term and to stable climate changes in the long term.

      --
      Heavy is the head that wears the tinfoil hat.
  56. Funny by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Many of the warmists don't even realize that it is midsummer down there.

    One of the funniest escapades in years getting stuck in the Antarctic sea ice in mid summer.

  57. It depends by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    When it is colder than normal, sure it is weather not climate.

    When it is hotter than normal - say with forest fires and droughts and with perhaps a tornado or two - then of course it is climate not weather.

    But then, I'm sure you understand that.

  58. Ah....and please tell me what your definition of a by PortHaven · · Score: 1

    A projection is.

    In my definition, it is "if I have x, y, z, and it continues on path q, I can project that it will continue to do so with a given accuracy". But as soon as I open my big fat mouth and say that "q will be such", I've changed from a projection of a model to a prediction. And when ALL of those predictions are wrong and revised. You start sounding like the religious nutjob on the corner who keeps changing his sign reading the "End of the World is October 2011"

    And yes, Newtonian physics fails at certain speeds. But at least Newton was able to replicate with a modicum of repeatability and prediction.

    Something none of the GWA models have done. And we're not talking 1-2 years, but 1-2 decades of being off. That based on a mere 2-3 decades of seeming warming.

    I'm not even saying the earth can't be warming. I'm just saying that those shouting it from rooftops have less accuracy than a JW.

  59. Re:Ah....and please tell me what your definition o by Maow · · Score: 1

    A projection is.

    In my definition, it is "if I have x, y, z, and it continues on path q, I can project that it will continue to do so with a given accuracy". But as soon as I open my big fat mouth and say that "q will be such", I've changed from a projection of a model to a prediction. And when ALL of those predictions are wrong and revised.

    That's where I think you're mistaken; they don't say, "q will be such", they state something more like, "if q continues to be such, we expect ___ with an X% level of confidence" (ya know, like scientists tend to do).

    I found this IPCC glossary:

    Climate prediction
    A climate prediction or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce a most likely description or estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in the future, e.g. at seasonal, interannual or long-term time scales. See also: Climate projection and Climate (change) scenario.

     

    vs

    Climate projection
    A projection of the response of the climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate models. Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions in order to emphasise that climate projections depend upon the emission/concentration/ radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions, concerning, e.g., future socio-economic and technological developments, that may or may not be realised, and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.

    Finally, the IPCC projections are criticized for being, if anything, too conservative in their projections. Time and time again they've said X in Y years and in Y - Z years X is seen to be having an effect. And when something stupid does come out (Himalayan glaciers melting in 30 years), they correct it. Ya know, like scientists do.

    Also, don't confuse media headlines with IPCC projections, just like you can't expect to see realistic scenes of IT in movies.

    And please, check out the link a few posts above that points to the Ars Technica story where the comp sci prof has a look at the models - he was impressed - they're pretty good. Or, "all models are wrong, some are useful" and climate models are useful.

  60. Re:Antarctica ... Ice by gargleblast · · Score: 1

    Delighted to hear it. Let me know when you come up with a better theory.

  61. Updating the story by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It appears that the attempt failed, at least for now.
    https://secure3.aad.gov.au/proms/public/schedules/display_sitrep.cfm?bvs_id=19314

  62. updating the story by merrisr · · Score: 1