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We Are All Confident Idiots

An anonymous reader writes: If you've ever heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect, you'll be familiar with David Dunning, professor of psychology at Cornell. He's written an article on the "psychology of human wrongness," explaining how confidence in one's answers tends to be high for people who don't know what they're talking about. He says, "What's curious is that, in many cases, incompetence does not leave people disoriented, perplexed, or cautious. Instead, the incompetent are often blessed with an inappropriate confidence, buoyed by something that feels to them like knowledge."

Dunning goes on: "A whole battery of studies conducted by myself and others have confirmed that people who don't know much about a given set of cognitive, technical, or social skills tend to grossly overestimate their prowess and performance, whether it's grammar, emotional intelligence, logical reasoning, firearm care and safety, debating, or financial knowledge. College students who hand in exams that will earn them Ds and Fs tend to think their efforts will be worthy of far higher grades; low-performing chess players, bridge players, and medical students, and elderly people applying for a renewed driver's license, similarly overestimate their competence by a long shot."

306 comments

  1. Sounds like Slashdot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    This sounds a lot like many of the +5 insightful comments on Slashdot these days. Bold, confident one-liners to get that quick +5 but not actually knowing what one is talking about...

    1. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by mc6809e · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I was thinking about the press.

      There's no way a journalist can crank out story after story unless they're completely unaware that they don't know what they're talking about.

      Any doubts in their own understanding would stop dead their fingers on their keyboards.

    2. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 5, Funny

      Bold, confident one-liners to get that quick +5 but not actually knowing what one is talking about.

      You mean I wasn't getting +5 because I was awesome?!

    3. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Only pointed out by the idiots suffering from the effect themselves.

      There's nothing that says that confidence implies ignorance. Well, other than the assertions by those suffering from the effect themselves.

    4. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by roc97007 · · Score: 2

      Mod this up! Oh, wait...

      --
      Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    5. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by fustakrakich · · Score: 3, Insightful

      OH I think they're perfectly aware of what they are doing, and it is intentional. They just don't care.

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    6. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      Nah, journalists have mental shortcuts that help them get through stories, the same way us programmers have mental shortcuts that help us get through extremely complex code in a day that would take a novice a month worried over minutea.

      I mean, it would be well beyond my knowledge level to actually describe those skills in any depth, and the best I could do is tell you what they teach at the beginning of intro to journalism courses, things like the 7 questions that get you your first two paragraphs or how to describe important figures to those readers unfamiliar with them.

    7. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by lgw · · Score: 2

      The more you know, the more you're unsure about. Of course, the more you know, the more you're sure about as well, but any sort of deep study perpetually raises more questions than it answers. Further, the deeper you study a subject, the more you realize you have only approximations - good, useful approximations one hopes, but still.

      Or, in the words of someone wiser than me, "the larger the island of knowledge, the longer the shore of uncertainty."

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    8. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by jeffmflanagan · · Score: 1

      Confidence is a big part of being considered awesome. Carry on.

    9. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Many fantastic inventions and works of labor have been completed because one person did not know the difficulty of the task. Sure, many have failed, and more knowledgeable people would have told them about the futility of their undertaking ahead of time, but it takes confidence to do something great, and that's why there is such a thing as knowing too much.

      If a professor tells you something can be done, he's probably right. If he tells you something can't be done, he's probably wrong.

    10. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by alvinrod · · Score: 1

      Most of them hardly qualify as stories. It's just linking to an actual story (or even more blog spam) from another site and adding their own two cents.

      Many of the people who consume the stories don't care about this at all and are mostly just looking for something that validates their world-view, whatever that may be.

      Not only is there the natural human tendency to not want to be wrong (even if it means lying to ourselves or others in the process) but it's something that tends to be reinforced entirely too much throughout our lives, and I think that's a bad thing in a certain way. The only way we can actually learn more about the universe is to come to the realization and accept that our understanding of that universe is flawed in some way.

    11. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by nine-times · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Well I think the proper behavior for a journalist is to try to be aware of how ignorant they may be, and instead focus on reporting what they've been told by experts-- making it clear that they're reporting what they're being told by experts, and making it clear which expert told them which thing.

      For journalists, it's not really their job to be experts. They're reporters, not philosophers. Sometimes they lose sight of that.

    12. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sounds like a description of the National Party campaign at the last election in New Zealand.

    13. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For example, Columbus embarked on a journey from Spain to China and discovered America only because he was wildly wrong about the circumference of the Earth.

    14. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by Luckyo · · Score: 1

      You appear to misunderstand the entire premise that is being discussed. This is about SELF delusion.

      Being able to present your point in a way that would delude others is an entirely different skill.

    15. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by Layzej · · Score: 2

      Good point. In the article Dunning suggests that you would need to be competent to even recognize incompetence: "Kruger and I published a paper that documented how, in many areas of life, incompetent people do not recognize -- scratch that, cannot recognize -- just how incompetent they are, a phenomenon that has come to be known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Logic itself almost demands this lack of self-insight: for poor performers to recognize their ineptitude would require them to possess the very expertise they lack. To know how skilled or unskilled you are at using the rules of grammar, for instance, you must have a good working knowledge of those rules, an impossibility among the incompetent. Poor performers -- and we are all poor performers at some things -- fail to see the flaws in their thinking or the answers they lack."

      but also that "common sense" provides undue confidence for the uninformed:

      "An ignorant mind is precisely not a spotless, empty vessel, but one that's filled with the clutter of irrelevant or misleading life experiences, theories, facts, intuitions, strategies, algorithms, heuristics, metaphors and hunches that regrettably have the look and feel of useful and accurate knowledge. This clutter is an unfortunate by product of one of our greatest strengths as a species. We are unbridled pattern recognizers and profligate theorizers. Often our theories are good enough to get us through the day, or at least to the age when we can procreate."

    16. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by shadowrat · · Score: 3, Funny

      the same way us programmers have mental shortcuts that help us get through extremely complex code in a day that would take a novice a month worried over minutea.

      that sounds a bit confident. maybe it's too confident. maybe you are succumbing to Dunning-Kruger yourself!

      i find after 15 years on the job, i spend a lot more time worrying about the things i'm not thinking of. I was a lot more productive in my youth when i just blindly charged ahead; applying whatever pattern-du-jour to everything.

    17. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by Midnight_Falcon · · Score: 1

      Eratosthenes pre-dated Columbus by some time...he was not wildly wrong about the circumference of the Earth, but the size of the Atlantic Ocean.

    18. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Facts of life #17 - being correct is not enough to motivate others.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    19. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by crunchygranola · · Score: 1

      Eratosthenes pre-dated Columbus by some time...he was not wildly wrong about the circumference of the Earth, but the size of the Atlantic Ocean.

      Columbus was wrong about both. Despite having the correct size of the Earth computed very closely by Eratosthenes (we do not know how closely though since the exact size of this "stadia" is unknown), Columbus still accepted a grossly incorrect figure due to his own (flawed) interpretations of ancient geographers.

      --
      Second class citizen of the New Gilded Age
    20. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not the point. Columbus did not intend to find what we now know as America. He wanted to sail to China, and he estimated the length of the trip based on the wrong assumptions that there would be a direct westward route to China and that the circumference of the Earth was about a quarter of the actual size. He was very confident though, which certainly helped convince the Spanish queen to back his Kickstarter.

    21. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by gweihir · · Score: 1

      I happen to get quite a few of these. Unfortunately for your thesis, I quite often know what I am talking about. (Apologies for the seeming arrogance, but there is no polite way to say this and of course sometimes I am way off...)

      The point of Dunning-Kruger is not that people that think they know what they are talking about are clueless. The point is that the clueless very often think they know what they are talking about. The implication is in the other direction, and the direction is all-important here. Most people (and especially DKE sufferers) often cannot distinguish between equivalence and implication and get things fundamentally wrong as a result.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    22. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Not so much. People tend to perceive emotions in others. If you are very good at self-deception (and many, many people are especially those with power of some kind), you project that and others are far more likely to believe you as well.

      You are likely thinking about successful con-artists, but these are rare and it takes considerable skill to be good at that. What makes so many politicians, industry-leaders, officials, police-men, etc. so dangerous, is that they actually believe the nonsense they are telling others. That way, they can convince others without having those difficult-to-master "con" skills, but by projecting genuine emotion.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    23. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by penguinoid · · Score: 1

      If you've ever heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect, you'll be familiar with David Dunning, professor of psychology at Cornell.

      Yeah, I'm an expert in the Dunning-Kruger effect, in fact I wrote an entire treatise on it once, which I published on Slashdot. That was the one that discovered that a bunch of elitist snobs on the internet are so full of themselves that they won't listen to their betters, even when we patiently explain to them we're happen to be an expert on that very subject. Anyhow, if you need to know more, don't hesitate to ask me as I know it better than this Dun-something guy, whoever he is.

      --
      Don't waste your vote! Vote for whoever you want, unless you live in a swing state it won't matter anyways
    24. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by kwbauer · · Score: 1

      And letters he wrote to family suggest that he did know the truth but chose to lie because he thought the journey was worthwhile but would not get the necessary backing by telling the truth.

    25. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by FatdogHaiku · · Score: 1

      I will respond to this as soon as I get done fixing the Internet...
      BRB.

      --
      You have the right to remain sentient. If you give up the right to remain sentient, you will be elected to public office
    26. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by stealth_finger · · Score: 1

      Bold, confident one-liners to get that quick +5 but not actually knowing what one is talking about.

      You mean I wasn't getting +5 because I was awesome?!

      Nope, only because you think you are ;)

      --
      Wanna buy a shirt?
      https://www.redbubble.com/people/stealthfinger/shop?asc=u
    27. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So an article supporting the idea that everyone else is a dumbass is presented to a bunch of smartass people...

      I once rented a large room and I filled it with people named dennis while I watched from above...

    28. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ^ or because he didnt have clocks to measure longitude accurately.

    29. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What subject doesn't have a conspiracy associated with it!

    30. Re: Sounds like Slashdot by MattFatt · · Score: 1

      Sounds like G.W. Bush

    31. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by ebvwfbw · · Score: 1

      Journalism isn't a competitive major. Any idiot can get in there. Then, the profs are usually way way leftist and perpetuate even more idiocy. Even back in the early 1980s when I was a student. Wasn't new then, either. Can't fix stupid.

    32. Re:Sounds like Slashdot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Leftism in the classroom turns into fascism in the streets. Happens every time.

  2. Left one out by jbmartin6 · · Score: 5, Funny

    He didn't mention /. posters.

    --
    This posting is provided 'AS IS' without warranty of any kind, implied or otherwise.
    1. Re:Left one out by eparker05 · · Score: 4, Funny

      Based on my experience, I'm pretty sure yours will be a highly rated comment :)

    2. Re:Left one out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

      You mean like Bennett Haselton?

    3. Re:Left one out by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 2

      The problem here is that Prof. Dunning's principle could apply to anybody, including college professors.

      So how does he know he is correct?

      ---
      "Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts." -- Richard Feynman

    4. Re:Left one out by Austerity+Empowers · · Score: 1

      Shh, nerd baiting makes the universe explode.

    5. Re:Left one out by skids · · Score: 1

      He is completely confident that his underconfidence is a clear indicator that he knows what he's talking about, obviously.

    6. Re:Left one out by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      To be fair, Dunning makes it clear that his main point isn't that people simply don't know; they're not "ignorant" in the normal sense of the word but actually MISinformed.

    7. Re:Left one out by jbmartin6 · · Score: 1

      yours will be a highly rated comment

      +1 Accurate

      --
      This posting is provided 'AS IS' without warranty of any kind, implied or otherwise.
    8. Re:Left one out by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Confidence increases with ignorance doesn't mean that all confident people are unable to gauge their own abilities.

    9. Re:Left one out by i+kan+reed · · Score: 4, Informative

      How does he know he's correct is a fucking 20 page journal paper and bulky quantities of empirical data. Science has methodology to help test and validate hypotheses. It doesn't mean he's absolutely right about everything, but it is evidence the idea didn't come from nowhere.

    10. Re:Left one out by lgw · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The problem here is that Prof. Dunning's principle could apply to anybody, including college professors.

        So how does he know he is correct?

      It's a good joke, but it's also the key realization that led to the use of double-blind studies. Someone had published a paper to the effect that no human studies could be trusted, because the observer effect would taint the study. It was a really depressing paper until someone pointed out that it was itself based on human studies, and thus the conclusion shouldn't be taken too seriously. More serious contemplation of the problem eventually led to double-blind studies being the norm for serious work.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    11. Re:Left one out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm really curious what special insight Bennett Haselton can provide us on this matter, since he's either an expert on this subject matter or expert subject matter.

      Either way, it's bound to be an enlightening 1000 word essay.

    12. Re:Left one out by catchblue22 · · Score: 1

      The problem here is that Prof. Dunning's principle could apply to anybody, including college professors. So how does he know he is correct? --- "Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts." -- Richard Feynman

      Are you sure about that?

      --
      This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)
    13. Re:Left one out by gweihir · · Score: 1

      You get the direction wrong. People with actual skills quite often know they have them. The point is about the insight-less majority of the human race.

      And there are really only two cases: 1. He is right and knows it. 2. He is wrong and thinks he is right, making him right again. So (2.) cannot actually happen here. The only valid option would be that he is right and believes to be wrong and hence does not publish. That clearly did not happen.

      On the more experimental side, this is exceedingly solidly proven.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    14. Re:Left one out by Bill_the_Engineer · · Score: 1

      I'm surprised he didn't cite us in his paper.

      --
      These comments are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of my employer or colleagues...
    15. Re:Left one out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No ideas come from nowhere, they come from brains.

    16. Re:Left one out by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      Thank you for that willful misunderstanding of a common phrase. I don't know where I'd be without your insight.

    17. Re:Left one out by pubwvj · · Score: 1

      More recent research shows that over 50% of 'peer reviewed' articles are never peer reviewed, that most studies can't be replicated and that 25% of studies are outright fraud.

    18. Re:Left one out by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Relax. It was a joke.

  3. Who? by ArcadeMan · · Score: 4, Funny

    If you've ever heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect, you'll be familiar with David Dunning, professor of psychology at Cornell.

    I've never heard about David Dunning nor of the Dunning-Kruger effect, but I'm pretty sure I don't need to know.

    1. Re:Who? by Your.Master · · Score: 1

      The Dunning-Kruger effect is exactly what the summary is describing, and I do think it's rather interesting.

      I had no idea that Dunning's first name was David, and I wouldn't say I was familiar with him. I also know nothing about Kruger and don't really care to look him up personally.

    2. Re:Who? by gurps_npc · · Score: 1

      Very funny. You just proved the Dunning Kruger effect is true. (The effect simply states that the less you know, the more sure you are.)

      --
      excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
    3. Re:Who? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I've never heard about David Dunning nor of the Dunning-Kruger effect

      And yet I've seen your sig so many times that I'm actually growing curious about these doggycoins.

      Maybe if you read other peoples' posts as often as you authored your own, you'd have noticed the regular posting and upmodding of comments mentioning the Dunning-Kruger effect. There's usually at least one at +5 under every story.

    4. Re:Who? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You know what's funnier?

      Woosh.

    5. Re:Who? by Austerity+Empowers · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You must not work in the corporate world. If you were not a confident idiot before joining, you will be after (or you'll be laid off). The guy who marches in the room with all the answers -> high value employee who knows his job and gets shit done. The guy who has more questions than answers? Incompetent idiot who ratholes meetings and deviates from the issue.

      The irony is that usually the second guy is the more knowledgeable person, he knows enough to know he doesn't know shit. Unfortunately as in politics, the person with the snappy answer sets policy.

    6. Re:Who? by operagost · · Score: 3, Funny

      Are you confident that's not a jet plane WHOOOOOSHING over your head?

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    7. Re:Who? by ArcadeMan · · Score: 1

      A little upcoming game called VoidSpace is supposed to allow in-game DogeCoin trading, so sign up under me and start earning today!

      Given that a lot of the articles around here often get a botched/trolling summary, the replies are often more informative so only a fool wouldn't read them. People are what makes Slashdot a place to stick around, not the obvious paid-for bullshit "articles" we get half the time.

    8. Re:Who? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Dunning and Kruger also received the 2000 IgNobel award for their psychology paper "Unskilled and Unaware of It".
       

    9. Re:Who? by ArcadeMan · · Score: 1

      Hey man, did you know your username is awfully close to "Austin Powers"?

      Yeah, baby!

      P.S.: we'll see if today's moderators come from the corporate world.

    10. Re:Who? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >I've never heard about David Dunning nor of the Dunning-Kruger effect

      A regular poster mentions the Dunning-Kruger problem with Slashdot posters in his sig, so either you're blocking sigs, today is your first visit to /., or you haven't heard of something that's been right in front of you for months at least.

    11. Re: Who? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Or GP was employing comedic irony, but it went over your head with a whooooosh.

    12. Re:Who? by X0563511 · · Score: 4, Funny
      --
      For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
    13. Re:Who? by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Probably the most important and yet most-ignored research of the last century. It is basically the full description for all of humanity's serious problems.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    14. Re:Who? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It generally works that way socially as well. Better to be a BSer than to warn you're not completely sure of what you're saying.

    15. Re:Who? by LessThanObvious · · Score: 2

      Yeah, I've been both of those guys at one time or another. I'll admit to falling into the confidence trap. If you think you are a smart person it easy to think you are also better at guessing the right answer. I find it difficult to hold both the idea that I am smart and that guessing is never reliable and often makes one seem stupid. I'm finding this is also a principle flaw in democracy. People vote without doing any research whatsoever on the issues and are very willing to have a firm opinion about things that they know nothing about.

    16. Re:Who? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      That's the price of leadership. You have to make a decision, or propose a course of action for the others to follow. If you present only more questions at an arranged meeting, you end up wasting time and confuse the followers and executioners. The meeting might not stay in it's time box. The right time to ask questions or raise issues is during the preparation of the meeting, which could take anything from minutes to years.

    17. Re:Who? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This has to be the slashdot effect to a tee!

      He is an expert... "He watched a japaneeze guy overhaul a transmiscon one time."

      Sign him up he would make a less than average slashdotter. And the bar is pretty low now a days.

    18. Re:Who? by Thanshin · · Score: 1

      The only thing you need to know is that Mr. Dunning was a complete incompetent. Trust me, I'm good at knowing that kind of things.

    19. Re:Who? by nukenerd · · Score: 1

      If you've ever heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect, you'll be familiar with David Dunning, professor of psychology at Cornell.

      I've never heard about David Dunning nor of the Dunning-Kruger effect, but I'm pretty sure I don't need to know.

      If everyone who has heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect is "familiar with David Dunning", then his Christmas card list must be an epic. Why am I not on it then?

    20. Re:Who? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I learned that lesson very quickly.
      When the boss asks "can we do X", as a junior developer I'd answer "Yes, but ". The bosses will inevitably only hear the first part. Now I answer "No, because ".
      The honesty of technical analysis suffers, but we get a better result. A part of me has truly died.

    21. Re:Who? by Thanshin · · Score: 1

      The irony is believing that the guy who is more knowledgeable, only asks questions and never accepts any responsibility because "he said during the meeting that there would be problems", is in any way more useful than the guy who gives snappy answers without the knowledge.

      At some point a decision has to be made, and raising questions without a plan of what to do for each possible response, is just the non productive self-preservation mechanism of the knowledgeable.

    22. Re:Who? by Thanshin · · Score: 1

      If everyone who has heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect is "familiar with David Dunning", then his Christmas card list must be an epic. Why am I not on it then?

      Because you drank too much on David's last Christmas party and you puked on the punch bowl.

    23. Re:Who? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You seem to imply that the more knowledgeable person is automatically going to create more value for the company. That's not necessarily true though. My old boss used to have a little speech about optimistic people vs. pessimistic people, saying that you needed both in a company. You need the dreamers to make sure you're going somewhere, and the pessimistic people to make sure you actually get there.

      I've seen plenty of smart, capable people get stuck in the mud trying to over-analyze a situation while a less competent person decides to just push ahead with whatever seems the best solution at the time. It's a bit comparable to the "exploration vs. exploitation" trade-off in mathematical optimization. Neither extreme is the best approach - the answer as usual is somewhere in the middle, but for most daily decisions I tend to prefer action over analysis. (depending on the type of decision of course...)

    24. Re:Who? by rastos1 · · Score: 1

      Was that the sound of salmon flying over his head?

    25. Re:Who? by riondluz · · Score: 1

      "...to just push ahead with whatever seems..."

      Which goes a long way to explaining why things are
      working so well for us all.

      Seriously, systems are as fucked-up as they are
      because some "A-types" have to feel able to do anything asked of them; and when it doesn't go as planned, they only need "more $, more manpower".
      "let's not dwell on how we got here and focus on the goal(s)"
      It's not piss-poor planning, it's tailoring the
      plan (its feasibility) to a desired outcome
      facts be damned.

      WTF? It's all bullshit. It's putting
      good ol boys in places that reward failure with
      promotions. It's about supressing critical
      thinking so as not to temper people's enthusiasm.

      It's about trusting that when things don't go
      as planned the process will just correct itself.

      Yet, the more we come to learn it seems the 'best
      and brightest' collectively are over paid and
      over credited blowhards whose ego's are their own
      worst enemies.

      I can only conclude that stated goals are eclipsed
      by the unstated ones; basically self-promotion.
      For 'them and those like us'. Getting w/the
      program, belonging to the group, requires it.

      Look at our green machine; a vast ring-knocker
      brain-trust that always seems to repeat its
      own mistakes from one generation to the next.
      COIN failed, CT failed, both never lived up to
      expectations, but it sure has enriched a fuckton
      of ring-knockers.

      I'm concluding that our society's motto is
      'get away w/it as long as you can then lie and
      spin and hope to outrun the pitchforks if/when
      people get wise to the massive theft perpetrated
      upon them.

      What our 'leaders' are doing 'in our name' will
      be our ruination.
      Maybe it's just the human condition

      --
      resist propaganda
    26. Re:Who? by neurovish · · Score: 1

      You must not work in the corporate world. If you were not a confident idiot before joining, you will be after (or you'll be laid off). The guy who marches in the room with all the answers -> high value employee who knows his job and gets shit done. The guy who has more questions than answers? Incompetent idiot who ratholes meetings and deviates from the issue.

      The irony is that usually the second guy is the more knowledgeable person, he knows enough to know he doesn't know shit. Unfortunately as in politics, the person with the snappy answer sets policy.

      Hence why you need to be a lying sociopath to get ahead. You go into meetings with all of the confidence even though you know you are wrong or not entirely correct. Don't worry though, if anybody finds out, then you can always find a scapegoat.

  4. Ingersoll by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    See Robert Ingersoll from over 100 years ago:

    The man who is right is generally modest. Men in the wrong, as a rule, are arrogant; and arrogance is generally in the majority.

    — Robert G Ingersoll (@RGIngersoll) August 13, 2014

    1. Re:Ingersoll by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Men in the wrong, as a rule, are arrogant; and arrogance is generally in the majority.

      That's what makes democracy such a great thing, isn't it?

    2. Re:Ingersoll by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Indeed. The observation is old. Dunning and Kruger merely did a scientifically sound experimental validation. Same as the observation that arrogance and incompetence very often go hand-in-hand. (Reminds me of some IBM consultants I had dealings with recently. The stupid seems to radiate off them. Fortunately, they are now delayed in their project by 2 years, due to one pathetic screw-up after another, while I delivered on time.)

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    3. Re:Ingersoll by pnutjam · · Score: 1

      That's nothing. I used to work in small government. I actually got a stupid-burn from sitting next to one guy too long.

  5. Well then... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Thank God I know I suck at everything and don't know anything.

  6. SubjectsInCommentsAreStupid by lesincompetent · · Score: 0

    Thus my nickname.

    1. Re:SubjectsInCommentsAreStupid by lesincompetent · · Score: 1

      Morons modding me offtopic, go figure what the fuck is up with them.

    2. Re:SubjectsInCommentsAreStupid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Probably the subjectsincommentsarestupid subject that you use. It just looks spammy.

  7. He sounds pretty confident in those assetions. by dbc · · Score: 1

    I wonder if that means anything.

    1. Re:He sounds pretty confident in those assetions. by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      Here's the thing that everyone in academia from philosophy to arts to sciences believes that helps shape the reliability of academic study: an argument stands on its own, based on the reasonableness of the ideas and observations that feed into it.

      People who are incompetent are going to arrive at several different wrong notions through several different flaws ways of approaching a problem. When arguments are well structured. those flaws can be pointed out, removed, improved on. Eventually, through the application of rigorous methods, you can arrive at a body of knowledge that is relatively competent.

      Things like formal logic, the scientific method, experimental standards, these are all things that people can use to help in that process.

    2. Re:He sounds pretty confident in those assetions. by gweihir · · Score: 1

      And another one that gets the direction of the implication wrong....

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  8. left unmentioned by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    was "Microsoft CEO"

  9. I can't help but observe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You sound pretty confident...

    1. Re:I can't help but observe by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Wrong implication direction. The statement is about stupid people, not about confident ones.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  10. So in other words... by drewsup · · Score: 1

    A definitive explanation for Beta??

    1. Re:So in other words... by Hognoxious · · Score: 0

      You misspelled systemd.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  11. Summary doesn't support headline by i+kan+reed · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I know this is petulant and pedantic, but Dunning-Kruger is statistical, and only reflects the naturalness of a lack of detailed introspection.

    More over, some people are genuinely competent at things. I want to object to the notion that it's an inescapable human failing, because Dunning and Kruger's research didn't show that. Just a strong overall trend.

    1. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by the_skywise · · Score: 1

      Do you say that with total confidence?

    2. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by sexconker · · Score: 0

      herp derp correlation is not causation

      u kan dum

    3. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by i+kan+reed · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I don't need total confidence to have a point. I know you're joking, but I don't post on slashdot hoping everyone comes and tells me I'm right.

      I post and hope someone comes and tells me I'm wrong in a way that's interesting enough to show me something new.

    4. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      ...

      That's not what I said at all. The causative mechanism ascribed by Dunning isn't the correlation that exists, but rather an underlying cause: that people who don't understand things lack the meta-cognitive tools to see their error. I think that theory is totally reasonable, and was only objecting to the notion that it has to be universal.

    5. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by fermion · · Score: 1

      It called the ability to learn. Many people do not have it. There is no issue with making a bold statement, or trying something at which one is not skilled. I find the issue develops when one is confronted with factual content, or alternative perspectives on more squishy subjects, and one still believes that one's own opinion is the only reasonable opinion. A person who can learn and grow is at least able to acknowledge that they might be wrong. For some people it is just maturity, as in the case of college students. For others it is that they apparently genuinely lack what many would call advanced cognitive skills.

      --
      "She's a scientist and a lesbian. She's not going to let it slide." Orphan Black
    6. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      More over, some people are genuinely competent at things.

      But not at everything.

      Everyone has some amount of incompetence in some field. And the smarter (or more competent) they are, the more likely they are to believe that their field of competence extends to other things....

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    7. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It is mostly like economic discussions. I actually have a clue (having studied it for 15 years). Yet everyone has their pet theory which 'will fix the world' 'if only someone would listen'. Many times they do not realize that their pet theory is worse than what they rail against. Usually they assume everyone is exactly like them or will act perfectly. You point out the flaws and why it does not work with journals and actual studies and they flip the hell out or dismiss it. Because they did not want to actually do any work. They wanted to espouse whatever opinion they had as if it is fact.

      That is but one small sample of how internet discussion boards work.

      This sums it up very well
      http://xkcd.com/386/

    8. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Depends on the individual.

    9. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 5, Interesting

      This is why deliberate practice, as described by K Anders Ericsson, is so important. Deliberate practice is what makes experts, and summarizes in three simple concepts: goal-oriented behavior; a focus on technique; and constant, immediate feedback.

      By deliberate practice, a person is *looking* for their flaws, setting goals to push their competence, and immediately getting burned when they push beyond their abilities. This style of practice aims to draw attention to those behaviors which are incorrect--gaps in knowledge, weakness in skill--so that a person may reconcile these things and improve.

      Such practice continuously slims down the level of overconfidence, even as confidence increases. A person is appraised of their shortcomings, but also reduces them, simultaneously becoming more skilled and more aware of the weaknesses in their skill in that area.

    10. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by the_skywise · · Score: 2

      Think about it. Even for those of us who are smart enough to qualify our answers, we'll STILL say we're right even without a majority of the information needed to make a valid decision because we "know" better because usually, with experience, we're right. (But we're not really, we're just lucky) Sure, there's exceptions like heart surgery and rocket launches where you want to make a "go" decision with close to 100% accuracy as possible (but generally we still don't even get that close) but the great majority of decisions you'll make in life can't be made with that much accuracy. Should I marry this person, should I start this company, should I invest in this company, where should I concentrate my efforts to have a fulfilling life? By natural instinct you HAVE to develop an inner monologue and gut reaction to events and you have to do it without sufficient information to make that decision because you will never have the time or ability to GET that information before the decision must be made.

      Don't believe me? How about Colin Powell?
      "Use the formula P=40 to 70, in which P stands for the probability of success and the numbers indicate the percentage of information acquired. Once the information is in the 40 to 70 range, go with your gut.”

    11. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by el+jocko+del+oeste · · Score: 1

      The actual article provides better support for the headline. Yes, many people are genuinely competent at things. But the author implies that we all have a weak spot somewhere and our own incompetence blinds us to it.

    12. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      (almost) All people are confident. That's human nature. (almost) all people are ignorant. That's human nature. That learning causes a loss of confidence doesn't mean that ignorance causes confidence. So I reject the "causitive mechanism" stated. He's proving the control (the "natural" state), not the experimental case, where someone who is ignorant is confident, and as their knowledge grows, they get less confident. One would presume that there's a turnaround on the other end. It's hard to imagine that the most knowledgeable person on every subject thinks themselves the least knowledgeable.

    13. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      I know this is petulant and pedantic, but Dunning-Kruger is statistical, and only reflects the naturalness of a lack of detailed introspection.

      More over, some people are genuinely competent at things. I want to object to the notion that it's an inescapable human failing, because Dunning and Kruger's research didn't show that. Just a strong overall trend.

      I think it stands to reason that those who don't know the details or have a depth of understanding on a subject can oversimplify things and believe the basis or solutions are simpler than they really are. I see this a lot in discussion of technical issues on /., where some can gloss over all the complications they are not aware of and propose solutions that seem quite logical when the underlying details are not considered . But, as you pointed out, one can understand the depths of a subject and have confidence in their answer as well. The better you know a topic, the better you know your limits within that topic as well.

    14. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      And the smarter (or more competent) they are, the more likely they are to believe that their field of competence extends to other things....

      The smarter they are, the more likely they are to have read enough about those other things to be somewhat competent at them, so at least to some degree, they are probably correct in that belief, at least by comparison with a person picked at random from outside the field in question.

      There are certain personality types that seem to exhibit the Dunning-Kruger effect more than others. I've known plenty of people who act like they know way more than they do, and in my experience, most of them also don't like to be corrected when they are wrong, and will vigorously defend their incorrect beliefs even when presented with incontrovertible evidence that they are factually wrong. They tend to use ad hominem attacks at staggering rates, and they refuse to adapt their world view to accommodate new knowledge. Basically, these people stopped learning at some point in their lives because they cling so rigidly to a very limited world view. This dogmatism makes them feel confident, likely because they lack actual confidence, and make up for that lack with false bravado.

      Those of us who are driven primarily by a quest for knowledge and understanding, by contrast, usually behave confidently when we're confident, and when we aren't, we take the time to learn enough to become confident. And when proven wrong, we incorporate the conflicting information into our world view, and try to figure out why it conflicts with our expectations. After all, knowing that a fact is incorrect is irrelevant without understanding why it is incorrect. Otherwise, your entire world view eventually becomes a collection of discrete facts with no unifying understanding, and you'll be left guessing which facts matter in which situation.

      That said, this is just my personal experience, and it could easily be skewed by the sorts of people that I interact with. So I could be wrong; feel free to prove me wrong, but if you do, be prepared to provide factual support, or I will usually counter your arguments with factual support of my own. :-)

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    15. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >(almost) All people are confident. That's human nature.

      I don't think this is true, unless by "almost," you mean to rule out smart young people. Many of us underestimate our capabilities until we get an opportunity to compare ourselves to others in the workplace and realize that the human race is mostly feeble-minded. In my experience young, dumb people are much more confident than young smart people.

    16. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One minor thing tho, this isn't about ignorance, it is about incorrect knowledge and believing it to be correct.

      Ignorance is a lack of knowledge, experience, and exposure.

      This is about people who believe their knowledge, experience, and exposure supports their conclusion, when reality suggests otherwise.

    17. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by quantaman · · Score: 1

      I know this is petulant and pedantic, but Dunning-Kruger is statistical, and only reflects the naturalness of a lack of detailed introspection.

      More over, some people are genuinely competent at things. I want to object to the notion that it's an inescapable human failing, because Dunning and Kruger's research didn't show that. Just a strong overall trend.

      I wouldn't call it pedantic. Whether all people are major victims of this phenomena, or merely a substantial portion of people, is a critical distinction.

      Personally I think I'm relatively good at professing my lack of expertise and/or confidence in areas in which I have low competence.

      Unfortunately a person suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect would think the exact same thing.

      --
      I stole this Sig
    18. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by jeffmflanagan · · Score: 1

      >Everyone has some amount of incompetence in some field.

      Correct. A great example of this is neurosurgeon Ben Carson. He's considered to be very capable in his field, but has internalized common Conservative beliefs like creationism, which usually only the least capable of us fall for.

    19. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lots of times I don't do this (sound confident when I'm not) because I know the answer ... I do it when I don't know the answer simply to amuse myself with other people's acceptance of my apparent knowledge.

      I get called on it occasionally - mostly by my wife and other people who know me somewhat well - which is great, because it helps me fine tune my BullShitOTron-1000 for the next time.

    20. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by the_skywise · · Score: 1

      Heh... poker much?

    21. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Have you ever had kids? Nothing like watching a 4 year old jump off a platform 4x their height, with no fear. Confident until proven otherwise. Only when they learn they have limitations do they believe they have them.

    22. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by wrook · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Dunning-Kruger, no matter that it doesn't predict the competence of a person based on their confidence, has significant consequences. For example, take a large group of people. Note that their competence in some field is a random variable with probably a gamma distribution. In other words, most people are around average competence and as you move into higher competence, there are considerably less people. Now allow those people to self organize and choose leaders. To make things simple, lets split everything up into groups of 10 people. 10% are leaders. They are chosen for their self confidence and outgoing nature.

      Interestingly, this will favour the less competent people, because they will be more confident. In fact, because most people are grouped around the middle, it will be difficult for them to distinguish competent from incompetent. This could make the incompetent candidates very much more successful. Now consider a second round. We are going to take 10% of the leaders and make them super leaders. They will be chosen by their peers based on their self confidence and outgoing nature. But now most of the people making the decisions are of lower competence. This will favour the incompetent even more.

      This is the beginning of a "talent inversion". Incompetent, but confident people rise to the top while competent, but cautious people stay at the bottom. Now imagine the politics that will evolve from this very simple starting point. Every time an incompetent senior person asks for the impossible, an incompetent junior person confidently strides up and promises results. Because they are both incompetent, they can happily fail, but convince themselves that they have actually succeeded. If you have ever worked in a big company, then you probably don't have to imagine.

      In other words, because of Dunning-Kruger life is unlikely to be a meritocracy. There are clear advantages to being competent, but one should not overlook the network effect of a group of confident, but incompetent people. Understanding that *you must deal with these people to ensure success* is key. In my career, I have found that borrowing some confidence from an "incompetent" co-worker, while lending some of my "competence" has been very successful. In fact, it is so useful to me that I have redefined my definition of competence. In truth, I was never very successful until I learned to look at things from other perspectives. No matter how right you are, if you can't act on it, it doesn't make much difference. And even if you are very wrong, acting often wins the day.

      It's a bitter pill to swallow for someone whose ego is bound up in their competence. But life is not fair.

    23. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Disagree. I think I'm pretty competent in my primary field. And, I've seen D-K in so many other people, I have learned to resist it. I think I'm good at what I have experience doing. I know I would need that same amount of experience to be as competent in a different field. I don't really call it D-K, though, just stupidity. Not all of us are stupid.

    24. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by gweihir · · Score: 1

      It is strong enough that it is a reasonable single-case estimator. However you need to get the implication direction right: The statement is that "stupid people are confident", not that confident people are stupid. Confident people are a mix of the competent and the utterly incompetent, with the former a smaller minority.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    25. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by grcumb · · Score: 1

      Heh... poker much?

      Poker?!? I hardly even know 'er!

      --
      Crumb's Corollary: Never bring a knife to a bun fight.
    26. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by nukenerd · · Score: 1

      Those of us who are driven primarily by a quest for knowledge and understanding, by contrast, usually behave confidently when we're confident, and when we aren't, we take the time to learn enough to become confident.

      I was agreeing with you (you seemed to be describing my Brother-in-Law) until then. I am confident that I am capable about things in my own field(s) but I gather that I do not show it. People have to know me well (like the guys I work with) before they realise that. I also have a strong drive to increase my knowledge.

      But thinking you can "take the time to learn" about areas in which we do not have the confidence/knowledge is a delusion. The totality of knowledge is vast*. I know nothing about music, and as a teen I decided it could stay that way (having seen how music can eat up some people's lives). You will never see me express an opinion about music.

      * Confident new graduate : "I would estimate that I know 10% of all knowledge."
      Wise old man : "OK, tell me what 10% of the World's population did yesterday."

    27. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by nukenerd · · Score: 1

      What a co-incidence - you are describing where I work! Who are you?

    28. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by dinfinity · · Score: 1

      Interestingly, this will favour the less competent people, because they will be more confident.

      This, and most of your post has nothing to do with the Dunning-Kruger-effect. The effect does not state that the incompetent are more confident than the competent, just that they are more confident than they should be.

      Your conjecture is based on the notion that competence and introversion go together in certain fields: "Incompetent, but confident people rise to the top while competent, but cautious people stay at the bottom." (notice the sudden addition of 'cautious' as somehow being inherent to competent people)

      Although there is merit in it, again: it has nothing to do with the Dunning-Kruger-effect.

    29. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by Gestahl · · Score: 1

      * Confident new graduate : "I would estimate that I know 10% of all knowledge." Wise old man : "OK, tell me what 10% of the World's population did yesterday." Smartass: "They survived one more day."

    30. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Cognitive/behavioral psychologist chiming in here (a bit late). You're basically correct in that it doesn't have to be universal. But that can be said for the majority of psychology. Beyond some very basic "our memory probably works in way X" and "learning happens via paths A,B, and C", there is variability to just about every psychological theory, stemming from the way memory works and is processed. This happens because we all have different experiences (with genetic variations as well) causing us to be "wired" ever so slightly different.

      Game theory stuff shows a lot of this. A slight contextual difference leads to drastically different results in how the game is played (say, giving a reward of 100 cents versus 1 dollar or priming the test subjects by having a particular poster in the waiting area). So, the majority of psychology is just "highly correlated" results that are averages of what we see among many different people. "Universal" is almost nonexistent in psychology or other social sciences.

      One amusing side-effect of this truth though, is that it also means people don't possess complete agency over their actions, which is a tough pill to swallow. Our independence and uniqueness is partially the result of external forces out of our control.

    31. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      Agency is arbitrary in meaning anyways. I don't have any trouble swallowing that pill.

    32. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      But thinking you can "take the time to learn" about areas in which we do not have the confidence/knowledge is a delusion. The totality of knowledge is vast*. I know nothing about music, and as a teen I decided it could stay that way (having seen how music can eat up some people's lives). You will never see me express an opinion about music.

      By contrast, I spent a significant chunk of my life in musical ensembles, and now routinely make snarky comments on Facebook about judging musical works based on the average number of measures per serious error made by the composer (or for sacred choral music, vice-versa, horrifyingly), interspersed with comments about XML parsers, obscure bits of the EPUB specification, and USB device quirks. But I digress.

      I think we're actually pretty much in agreement here. I'm not saying that I think I could feasibly have enough knowledge to have an answer for everything, but rather that if I feel the need to have an opinion on something, I'll learn enough to not come out looking like a complete idiot. And I'll be reasonably confident that I'm right because I learned enough to form an opinion based on actual facts, with references to back those opinions up. I might still be proven wrong if I overlooked some subtlety, but I'll be right way more often than not. Much like you, if I don't know enough to state something with... let's say 90% confidence or better, I generally won't say anything at all, or at best, will express it in a way that makes it clear that I'm not confident about it, and that I'd like folks to discuss it openly.

      Of course, this occasionally leads me down a rabbit hole, where I'm curious enough to form an opinion about something, and end up burning hours doing research, digging into statistics, etc., only to conclude that it really wasn't as interesting as it initially seemed, but that's the price of critical thinking, I suppose.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    33. Re:Summary doesn't support headline by NoOneInParticular · · Score: 1

      Yes, I have a kid. Mortally afraid to jump off a platform a quarter her height. No, overconfidence is not innate.

  12. Well that explains... by meerling · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Politicians...

    1. Re:Well that explains... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      professor of psychology...

    2. Re:Well that explains... by BringsApples · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Politicians actually don't have any of their own confidence, they take yours. That's the whole schtick to politics these days: Gain The People's Confidence. They each know how full of shit they are, and more importantly, they know how full of shit you are.

      --
      Politics; n. : A religion whereby man is god.
    3. Re:Well that explains... by fustakrakich · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Wrong, sir. Politicians are perfectly competent at what they were hired to do. The people who finance them are very pleased. And it shows in the reelection rates. They are not idiots by a long shot, not the winners anyway. Now, the voters, there you might have a point.

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    4. Re:Well that explains... by radarskiy · · Score: 1

      ...and Slashdot commenters talking about politicians.

    5. Re:Well that explains... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      and my wife.

      Seriously, my wife loves to argue with me about everything, and she's wrong almost every single time. She says that's because I think I'm always right, but I'm not. It's just that I don't argue about something unless I'm certain beyond doubt that I know what I'm talking about. Plenty of times I think she's wrong, but I'm not confident, so I don't argue more than a "I'm not sure that's right". The end result is, whenever we actually do argue about something, I'm almost always right. Of course, she doesn't believe me, and repeatedly tells me I'm wrong, so I head to google or wikipedia, and before I can even begin to read it to her she's telling me I'm an asshole for going to look it up.

      It's funny, but at the same time it's not.

    6. Re: Well that explains... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      it explains people who elect polticians better.

    7. Re:Well that explains... by Beck_Neard · · Score: 2

      It explains everyone. Society rewards confidence, even if that confidence is wrong. It does not reward ability at all, at least not directly.

      If you know something and are confident in it, people listen.
      If you don't know something but are confident in it, people listen.
      If you know something but aren't confident in it, people won't listen.
      If you don't know something and aren't confident in it, people won't listen.

      The only exception to this is when you have been wrong so many times that people gradually stop taking your confidence at face value. But you can still rile up support again through a few sound-bites and appeals to the lowest common denominator. After all, we all know that the ability to come up with a witty one-liner on the spot demonstrates intelligence and wit.

      People are dumb (myself included).

      --
      A fool and his hard drive are soon parted.
    8. Re:Well that explains... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When did you lose the desire to ever have sex again?

  13. Well, sure. by fahrbot-bot · · Score: 1

    "What's curious is that, in many cases, incompetence does not leave people disoriented, perplexed, or cautious. Instead, the incompetent are often blessed with an inappropriate confidence, buoyed by something that feels to them like knowledge."

    The truthiness of that seems pretty solid.

    --
    It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
  14. Bob Barber: I'm a lawyer, you idiot! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Bob Barber: I'm a lawyer, you idiot!

    Actually, I'm not confident at all!

  15. Seems consistent by Dega704 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts." - Bertrand Russell

    1. Re:Seems consistent by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something.
      -Plato

    2. Re:Seems consistent by grcumb · · Score: 1

      Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. -Plato

      But ACs still haven't learned to just fucking google clever aphorisms before they post them.

      HINT: Plato didn't speak English, so the likelihood of him coming up with a cute turn of phrase like that in Classical Greek, and then having it translate to something so erudite in English is... small.

      --
      Crumb's Corollary: Never bring a knife to a bun fight.
    3. Re:Seems consistent by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If I'm not mistaking, that quote is from part-time philologist Jim (Massy) Plato who is still busy philosophizing while fishing the Alaskan gulf for dungeoness crab when he's not seriously pondering life's shortcomings from underneath his barstool.

    4. Re:Seems consistent by UnderCoverPenguin · · Score: 1

      HINT: Plato didn't speak English, so the likelihood of him coming up with a cute turn of phrase like that in Classical Greek, and then having it translate to something so erudite in English is... small.

      Translated literally, I agree that something said/written by the Plato of ancient Greek fame would not be so erudite in English.

      I once could read ancient Latin, which was heavily influenced by ancient Greek. To anyone who had not learned to read ancient Latin, a literal translation of stories (and other documents) written in the Latin of that era would be difficult to read. An easily readable "translation" is often actually a kind of collaboration between the original author and the translator (even when the original author is not involved in the translation, as would be the case when said author is dead).

      So, if the ancient Plato actually said/wrote a phrase like that, the often quoted English version would have gotten its English erudicity from the translator.

      --
      Don't try to out wierd me, three-eyes. I get stranger things than you, free with my breakfast cereal. --Zaphod Beeblebr
    5. Re:Seems consistent by grcumb · · Score: 1

      If I'm not mistaking, that quote is from part-time philologist Jim (Massy) Plato who is still busy philosophizing while fishing the Alaskan gulf for dungeoness crab when he's not seriously pondering life's shortcomings from underneath his barstool.

      Touché...

      ... And the image of a dungeoness crab will remain with me till my dying day.

      Dungeness crab, on the other hand, tend to disappear from my table in moments.

      --
      Crumb's Corollary: Never bring a knife to a bun fight.
    6. Re:Seems consistent by NewYork · · Score: 1

      "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man." --George Bernard Shaw

  16. You will not succeed, by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If you do not try, and do not prepare for failure.

    Because in preparing for failure, you conceive of how the plan could fail, and from that, accurately gauge the project cost.

    1. Re:You will not succeed, by sexconker · · Score: 1

      If you do not try, and do not prepare for failure.

      Because in preparing for failure, you conceive of how the plan could fail, and from that, accurately gauge the project cost.

      Wrong.
      Plenty of "successful" people have never planned or tried - they were born into success and were never allowed to fail with consequence.

  17. And knowing is half the battle. by cadience · · Score: 1

    Makes sense. The more you know, the more you know you that you don't know.

    1. Re:And knowing is half the battle. by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Exactly, when I was 18-20 I thought I knew everything. Then I started learning how much I didn't know.

    2. Re:And knowing is half the battle. by LessThanObvious · · Score: 1

      "The study was inspired by the case of McArthur Wheeler, a man who robbed two banks after covering his face with lemon juice in the mistaken belief that, as lemon juice is usable as invisible ink, it would prevent his face from being recorded on surveillance cameras."

      Now that's funny.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...

  18. And that's what's wrong today by Opportunist · · Score: 4, Interesting

    People who know their stuff also know just how little they really know, and they tend to be cautious with their answers. People who don't, but know just enough to THINK they know a lot lack that inhibition. And they won't hesitate to use this to assert they know a lot. This in turn will be seen as determination and having a vision by management and now take a wild guess who will be in charge of making all the important decisions.

    And sometimes I can't help but wonder if knowing too much is actually keeping people from climbing the corporate ladder. It seems, the less you know, the higher your chance that you'll end up at the C-Level.

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    1. Re: And that's what's wrong today by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's the Dilbert Principle. "You will be promoted to the level at which your decisions can no longer harm the organization."

      If you do good work and are careful you will never be promoted.

    2. Re:And that's what's wrong today by Kjella · · Score: 1

      And sometimes I can't help but wonder if knowing too much is actually keeping people from climbing the corporate ladder. It seems, the less you know, the higher your chance that you'll end up at the C-Level.

      Well yes, it's the people who found out they could delegate the job to others. Perhaps more importantly, it's the people who wanted to delegate the job to others. If you want to give them credit, maybe they're the ones who realized they weren't the best man for those nitty-gritty details and didn't want to take a deep dive into it. Engineers want to pick it apart and find out how it works, managers want to stack them and build a tower. I clearly prefer being a technical expert, if I'm "leading" someone it's because I'm teaching them and training them. I don't want to be the cat herder of people who know more than me, I'd get way too interested in doing their job instead of mine.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    3. Re:And that's what's wrong today by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And sometimes I can't help but wonder if knowing too much is actually keeping people from climbing the corporate ladder. It seems, the less you know, the higher your chance that you'll end up at the C-Level.

      I'll agree with that. Personally, I think there are a lot of higher level positions that I'd probably be able to do great at, but I really do get nervous that I'm just not quite qualified, and thus never apply for them

    4. Re:And that's what's wrong today by AthanasiusKircher · · Score: 4, Interesting

      And sometimes I can't help but wonder if knowing too much is actually keeping people from climbing the corporate ladder. It seems, the less you know, the higher your chance that you'll end up at the C-Level.

      I'm pretty sure I remember reading a study some years back about average IQ vs. salary. (Given the thread I'm discussing this in, I'm hesitant to say I'm sure of anything.) Anyhow, the conclusion was that people who made the big money in business tend not to be the smartest -- they tend to be somewhat above average, but not more than a standard deviation or two. Those results make some intuitive sense, given not only the parent's argument about ignorance, but also the fact that the people who possess rare intelligence often also end up with weird and eclectic interests, which means they often may be driven by some more esoteric obsession than the simple accumulation of wealth.

      But perhaps I'm just rationalizing, as TFA says.

      Anyhow, I would also agree with the parent to some extent because I think our current corporate culture specifically REQUIRES a certain level of ignorance to produce the results that many businesses want. There are very few corporations satisfied to be relatively "stable" from year-to-year. Growth, expansion, innovation, etc. are the normal desired features, even in businesses where basic methods don't change very fast.

      The most rational choice -- and probably the one adopted by intelligent, informed people -- would be one that probably approximates the average growth rate of the economy as a whole. For example, it's like the "invest in index funds" strategy -- from a rational, informed perspective, it's probably the course most likely to keep your investments stable.

      But lots of people are convinced that they have a strategy that will beat the market. Similarly, lots of people in mid-level management think they have a plan for a business that will involve risky choices to get ahead of competition, to expand at a great rate, etc.

      Obviously there will be a few people who actually ARE smart enough to figure out a strategy that's likely to beat the average. But there are probably 10 times as many people who THINK they can beat the average, but they're deluded.

      The problem is that if you gather enough such people together, a few of them are bound to have a string of "hits" just by chance. And those people tend to get promoted in our current corporate culture, because they apparently produce "results" which are far ahead of what the rational, informed, safer course would be... even if their "hits" were just a string of luck.

      And once you reach a certain level of management and size of business, even really bad decisions won't sink your career. For one thing, you increasingly rely on delegating those decisions to underlings who will take the fall unless a true disaster happens where they call for the head of the CEO. Instead of promoting the risky decisions yourself, you are in change of promoting the people who will do it, and some will get lucky... just like you did. And if you have a string of luck, you become a "great CEO." If you fail miserably (as is just as likely with chance), you take your golden parachute and retire.

      Basically, this is bound to be a case in a system where we promote people based on the idea that they will be overly aggressive and make strong decisions outside the norm, expecting results outside the norm. We're essentially demanding a level of exceptionalism that will tend to favor promotion on the basis of chance success (since few people have the skills to actually succeed that way due to skill). The demand for those sort of people will always exceed their supply -- which means lots of people will just get promoted for having a string of positive results outside the norm... even if it's the blind luck of someone who's too ignorant to choose a more rational and safer course.

    5. Re:And that's what's wrong today by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You seem to imply (intentionally or not) that the fact that top level management rarely have the top IQ's is related to their being more risk-taking and sometimes getting lucky. I've dealt with a number of CEO's and CFO's and while I agree with the statement that, while smart, they are usually not genius, I disagree with the idea that these guys just "got lucky". Rather at some point they stop trying to understand everything that goes on below them and go with what seems right to them, and rely on the people below them to make sure the ship stays on course. They are usually surprisingly self-aware about their own limitations to understand all of the complexity below them, which makes them more effective as managers versus their genius colleagues who try to understanding every issue to its very bottom before making a decision on it.

    6. Re:And that's what's wrong today by 31eq · · Score: 1

      I'm distracted from the whole argument by this idea that two standard deviations above the mean isn't that great. In fact, it puts you well within the top 4% of the population (assuming a gaussian distribution). Is that how smart they are or how smart they think they are?

    7. Re:And that's what's wrong today by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      For me it's every time I have to sit in a meeting.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  19. Actually it makes a certain amount of sense by the_skywise · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Incompetence generally isn't fatal in today's society.

    So long as you can back it up with deflection ("Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM") which is a basic two year old skill ("I didna take da cookie!") you're not going to lose your position until you reach the level of GROSS incompetence and maybe not even then.

    The real problem is when you have skilled people who make mistakes, KNOW they make mistakes and qualify their answers because they know they may not be right. They're overridden by these same people that never accept failure but still give the wrong answers.

    1. Re:Actually it makes a certain amount of sense by ic3m4n1 · · Score: 1

      That way skilled people making mistakes are even more susceptible to being ignored because they may feel responsible knowing their mistakes and try to take blame themselves. Further allowing incompetents to get away from responsibility of their actions.

      Interesting group theory.

    2. Re:Actually it makes a certain amount of sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Incompetence generally isn't fatal in today's society.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...

      Incompetent at maintaining your physical health and die of a heart attack at 40 while weighing 450lbs?

      Or I could cite the Iraq war dead who pile up to this day and will pile up for decades to come.

      Incompetence still has a monster body count these days and will on into the future.

  20. USA! USA! by BenSchuarmer · · Score: 0

    Hell Yeah!

  21. Did you say confident heterosexual? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Did you say confident heterosexual?

    1. Re:Did you say confident heterosexual? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      BOB: Yes.

  22. This is merely proof of the old adage: by DontBlameCanada · · Score: 1

    "He knows just enough to be dangerous."

    Most sw/dev managers I know fall in this category.

    1. Re:This is merely proof of the old adage: by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 2

      I was thinking of: "All things are easy to those who don't have to do them."

  23. Then I must be the smartest man on the planet. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Or am I the dumbest?

  24. Not a new idea by Translation+Error · · Score: 4, Interesting

    "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" - Charles Darwin

    --
    When someone says, "Any fool can see ..." they're usually exactly right.
    1. Re:Not a new idea by StripedCow · · Score: 1

      "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts."
              -- Bertrand Russell

      --
      If Pandora's box is destined to be opened, *I* want to be the one to open it.
  25. Isn't it a relection of desired outcome? by evanh · · Score: 1

    The projected confidence is a learned behaviour I suspect. One learns to effect change through convincing others to do their bidding.

    So, its a misunderstanding that most idiots are even looking to give a "correct" answer but rather are caring more about personal status and influence.

  26. Give Credit Where Credit is Due by njnnja · · Score: 1

    Slashdotter geekoid has been on top of this for as long as I have left .sigs on

    1. Re:Give Credit Where Credit is Due by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      "I know that I know nothing" - Socrates
      (if you really want to give credit - though it seems a bit dated to qualify as "news"...)

    2. Re:Give Credit Where Credit is Due by digsbo · · Score: 1

      Nah. He's been referring to Kruger-Dunning. Different thing entirely.

  27. I'm I smart? I guess I'll never know. by DumbSwede · · Score: 1

    When I was a child I use to fret to myself if I was stupid would I be smart enough to know I was stupid. At the age of 56 this thought still comes back to me, but now as when my mental decline starts will I realize it?

    One can get into a loop thinking about these things, as the converse is that people that worry they don’t measure up, typically more than measure up. So if I think I’m below average does that make me about average, then the second I think I might be above average, boom I might be below average again :-)

    Actually I do think I’m above average in many area’s as evidenced by various testing measures, but I probably over estimate my knowledge in non-technical areas, just as the study suggests. That said I typically stand back aghast at today’s Republican conservatives – I may be wrong, but in general they seem mean and – yes I’ll say it – bigoted. Of course that could just be Dunning-Kruger blinding me to the brilliance of the current Republican vision.

    1. Re:I'm I smart? I guess I'll never know. by dgatwood · · Score: 2

      Of course that could just be Dunning-Kruger blinding me to the brilliance of the current Republican vision.

      Quite the opposite. The Dunning-Kruger effect exhibited by those candidates blinds people to their general ignorance and lack of knowledge of even relatively recent history, economics, technology, or really much of anything as far as I can tell. They campaign on a few wedge issues that they know they'll never actually make progress on (e.g. abortion), while showing utter incompetence at everything they touch.

      Mind you, the Democrats aren't all that great, either. Given free reign, they tend to spend more and more money on social programs without critically evaluating whether those programs work, raise taxes to pay for it, and end up just making a mess of things.

      Economically, what we need is a group of people who are true fiscal conservatives. That means people who are careful about spending money and who constantly reevaluate programs to ensure that the money is being used effectively (which the Democrats fail at). That also means people who know not to spend huge amounts of money on credit, hoping that economic expansion will "fix" their crippling debt (which the Republicans fail at). That means not pumping money into their cronies' businesses (which both parties fail at, just with different cronies). That means setting up tax systems that don't favor the wealthy with lower tax rates under a false belief that this will create jobs (which the Republicans fail at), and that don't overly burden small businesses that create jobs (which the Democrats fail at). And it also means creating an environment that favors competition while disrupting monopolies (which the Republicans badly fail at, and the Democrats also often fail at).

      From there, we need people who defend liberty and civil rights, and who stand up for those who are powerless. Both Democrats and Republicans suck at that, just in different ways. Both parties attack the fourth amendment. Republicans and some Democrats (e.g. Hillary Clinton) attack the free speech aspects of the first. Republicans vigorously defend freedom of religion, but only for Christian religions. Democrats attack the second amendment. And neither party respects the remaining amendments very much, with the exception of the third (which nobody cares much about).

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    2. Re:I'm I smart? I guess I'll never know. by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      That said I typically stand back aghast at today’s Republican conservatives – I may be wrong, but in general they seem mean and – yes I’ll say it – bigoted. Of course that could just be Dunning-Kruger blinding me to the brilliance of the current Republican vision.

      The question you should ask is whether you think the Democratic vision is amazing. Finding problems with one party is hardly original.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    3. Re:I'm I smart? I guess I'll never know. by 31415926535897 · · Score: 1

      That said I typically stand back aghast at today’s Republican conservatives – I may be wrong, but in general they seem mean and – yes I’ll say it – bigoted. Of course that could just be Dunning-Kruger blinding me to the brilliance of the current Republican vision.

      I agree with you, but I also think the following is true too: :%s/Republican\|conservative/\={'Republican':'Democrat','conservative':'liberal'}[submatch(0)]/g;

    4. Re:I'm I smart? I guess I'll never know. by rasmusbr · · Score: 1

      According to TFA these studies actually show that the top performers, say the top 2%, on a given task accurately rate themselves as top performers. The surprising thing is that the bottom 2% also rate themselves as top performers.

      One possible explanation is that the very worst performers on a given task are people who are actively stupid in a way. These people have strongly held false beliefs about how things work, which actively mislead them. They are also confident enough that they don't acquire feedback and therefore it never dawns on them how wrong they are.

      When you think about it, it is actually possible to do worse than chance of a multiple choice test if you have strongly held false beliefs. Someone who merely guesses will tend to get 1/m questions right where m is the number of alternatives. Someone who has a false sense of knowledge could easily get zero questions right.

  28. Your point? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You won't get a lot of comments on this matter, since we all already knew this. Next topic.

  29. Darrell Issa is a perfect example by cat_jesus · · Score: 5, Informative
    1. Re:Darrell Issa is a perfect example by operagost · · Score: 0

      You're the perfect example of a partisan who doesn't realize or even care how competent politicians are as long as they give you what you want. Listened to Harry Reid lately? Or ever? Remember the nonsense that came out of Barney Frank's mouth when he was called out during the financial crisis?

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    2. Re:Darrell Issa is a perfect example by jeffmflanagan · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure Issa knows he's a sleazy clown who is voted into office by people who are as bad as he is.

    3. Re:Darrell Issa is a perfect example by thomst · · Score: 1

      cat_jesus noted:

      In Hearing, GOP Chairman Issa Misnames African Country, Repeatedly Mispronounces ‘Ebola’ Issa also thinks he knows more about ebola than doctors at the CDC.

      Darryl Issa is an intelligent guy. He's also a well-educated guy.

      Unfortunately, he's also a grandstanding, profoundly partisan hack who doesn't give a damn about facts, because he represents a redder-than-red district, so he only cares about getting more face time on Faux News ...

      --
      Check out my novel.
    4. Re:Darrell Issa is a perfect example by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ah, the diversion. Point out a Republican did something stupid, the apologists scour for silly things Democrats did. GOP politician gets caught red-handed lying or breaking the law, apologists find a Democrat who did something wrong. Yep, it's all ok, because everybody does it. Nice head-fake, but nothing you say contradicts the fact that Issa is an idiot who doesn't care enough to even try to know what he's talking about, and the more tragic fact that Repubs are gonna stand by their man regardless.

  30. Rampant in Photography by squidflakes · · Score: 0

    There might as well be a Dunning-Kruger effect built in to Photoshop, considering the number of photographers who suffer under the delusion that the terrible shit they produce is actually art.

    Full disclosure - I'm a cranky photographer who's not total shit but is still mostly shit.

  31. Not so smart after all. by DumbSwede · · Score: 1

    Should be titled: Am I smart? I guess I'll never know.
    Answer seems clear now :-)

    1. Re:Not so smart after all. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, you are named "DumbSwede", so I think the answer should've been clear before. :)

  32. Dr. Dunning's awful confident about his conclusion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "[T]he incompetent are often blessed with an inappropriate confidence, buoyed by something that feels to them like knowledge."

    Bah. He doesn't know what he's talking about.

  33. You forgot half the effect... by yorgo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Each time I see someone mention the D-K effect, they focus only on the first manifestation: unskilled individuals tend to suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than is accurate.

    But, there is an equal-but-opposite manifestation, as well: highly skilled individuals tend to rate their ability lower than is accurate.

    Why is this one typically ignored?

    1. Re:You forgot half the effect... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I suspect it is ignored because, for many, it results in admitting that one doesn't know as much as they think as those who doubt may be more educated. Watch a politician in action - any sign of doubt means ATTACK! ATTACK! ATTACK! Suddenly, the person with knowledge is made to look like a fool.

    2. Re:You forgot half the effect... by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      The effects of thinking you have more ability than you have are usually considerably more spectacular underestimating your ability.

    3. Re:You forgot half the effect... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Each time I see someone mention the D-K effect, they focus only on the first manifestation: unskilled individuals tend to suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than is accurate.

      But, there is an equal-but-opposite manifestation, as well: highly skilled individuals tend to rate their ability lower than is accurate.

      Why is this one typically ignored?

      You're right. It's not mentioned, but technical people who do technical interviews are quite familiar with that.

    4. Re:You forgot half the effect... by Pfhorrest · · Score: 1

      Maybe because there are fewer highly skilled individuals than there are mediocre ones... although, now that I think about it, there are also fewer terrible unskilled individuals than there are mediocre ones, assuming a normal distribution.

      That raises an interesting question. Confidence decreases with competence (so dumb people think they're smart and smart people think they're dumb), but where do the two curves intersect? At what level of competence do people statistically have accurate confidence? I'd venture a guess that that point is beyond the median competence level, in which case, the domain where confidence exceeds competence would be larger than the domain where competence exceeds confidence: we'd have a lot more overconfident idiots than we would underconfident geniuses. So of course the overconfident idiots would be the more notable consequence of the D-K effect, and the underconfident geniuses would be more-often neglected.

      I would like to see some kind of study involving confidence in light of knowledge of the D-K effect and both subjective and objective third-party competency assessments.

      When I was a kid, I initially thought I was of average intelligence, and just surrounded by idiots (who I assumed must all be below average, not understanding back then how averages work). But then over years of teachers and such telling me that I scored far above average on all objective competency tests, I adjusted my perception and realized that all of the "idiots" were in fact just average people, and I was the unusual one, above average. By college and throughout college, I had internalized that enough that I no longer thought of average people as "idiots" at all; they were just ordinary people with their ordinary intellectual difficulties that I was fortunate not to be burdened with. After college however, meeting with prolonged failure at endeavors outside academics, I began to perceive myself as in fact below average, and questioned the objectivity of the competency tests from my youth (or rather, questioned whether they tested actual competency rather than just some useless test-taking ability). But in the years since then, friends and colleagues and even employers continue to tell me in their subjective opinion how above average I am. And still I sometimes looks at others struggling to understand things that seem so simple and easy to me, not things I have more experience with but just things that seem like they would be obvious to any newcomer.

      So now I have no idea what to think about my own competency. I have contradictory "gut feelings" both that others seem dumb for not seeing things that are so obvious, and that I must be dumb for failing at things that so many others are succeeding at. I then doubt both of those feelings due to knowledge of the D-K effect; maybe I feel smarter than others because I don't even know how dumb I am, and maybe I feel like I'm failing only because I see how much more room for success there is. On the whole, weighing those two against each other, my reflexive (self-referential) gut feeling is that I probably just think other people are dumb because I'm too dumb to even know what smart is, and that that's probably why I'm failing at things so many others are succeeding at. But then I remember all those objective competency tests claiming I'm far above average, and how everybody else's subjective assessment of me is that I am above average too, and I wonder again if maybe I only think I'm a failure because I'm aware of how much better I could be doing?

      And when I look at objective measures of success, I see that I am doing about as well as average, and wonder, do all the conflicting factors cancel out and I'm really just average in the end? Except then, there are conflicting factors about whether I am doing as well as average too; everyone I personally know in meatspace thinks I'm doing phenomenally well, way better than average, but the normative standard I see in the media and hear people talk about on the internet seems almost u

      --
      -Forrest Cameranesi, Geek of all Trades
      "I am Sam. Sam I am. I do not like trolls, flames, or spam."
    5. Re:You forgot half the effect... by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Simple: It applies to far, far fewer people. There are not that many highly capable individuals around.

      The other thing is that it is not as pronounced a problem. If, say, your brain surgeon is reasonably confident he can fix your problem and has a good reputation, that is good enough to trust him. If he is a total quack and is absolutely sure he can fix your problem, that tends to have unfortunate consequences.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    6. Re:You forgot half the effect... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Culturally we love to attack hubris. We put people on pedestals, be they celebrity or politician or otherwise, just so we can knock them off of it.

      Highly competent people are boring. They do what they do and things get done just the same as the sun rises every day. That lack of interest is compounded by them being of lower confidence. It is perceived, and likely is to some extent, humble.

      Oh how completely dull it is to see someone of skill that is also of quality character. Give us confident idiots and we all turn our attention to enjoy the show.

    7. Re:You forgot half the effect... by yorgo · · Score: 1

      You know that feeling you get when you read a Dilbert cartoon and think it was specifically written about you (or your workplace)? That's the feeling I got reading your post.

    8. Re:You forgot half the effect... by Pfhorrest · · Score: 1

      Glad to hear I'm not alone. :-)

      --
      -Forrest Cameranesi, Geek of all Trades
      "I am Sam. Sam I am. I do not like trolls, flames, or spam."
    9. Re:You forgot half the effect... by TranquilVoid · · Score: 1

      Firstly, it's an impressively mature outlook to think of yourself as fortunate for being intelligent rather than being angry at the majority for being 'idiots'.

      Secondly, success within a species as social as humans depends on a lot more than individual intelligence (tests are typically very individual). A lot of success comes from relational ability and if you are below average in this then it can hamper the use of your intellectual abilities. Compounding this, low relational ability doesn't seem correlated with a low need for relationships. Another factor is that the majority will create structures than benefit average people and, if you are exceptionally intelligent or dumb, will not be able to make full use of them.

    10. Re:You forgot half the effect... by Pfhorrest · · Score: 1

      Thank you for the compliment about maturity. Reflecting on it made me realize something: even before I started to think of myself as maybe below average due to my prolonged post-collegiate failures, I was noticing something that I admired in the people "less smart" than me, something that I just now realized, in retrospect, was the very skill I had to learn to begin to overcome those failures. I usually didn't really study for my classes, I just listened in lecture and sometimes did the reading, and somehow absorbed the material, which was easy for me. I didn't really understand what "studying" involved, how to even do it if I needed to do it. Either something made sense to me, and then it was easy and I was good at it, or it didn't make sense to me, and I didn't even know where to begin trying to make sense of it, it was intractably hard and I was terrible at it so I gave up and did something else that made more sense. But I saw fellow classmates to whom nothing we were studying made initial sense, but they somehow... did something, I wasn't sure what... and came out the other end of it having some competency at a thing that they didn't just "grok". I found that impressive because it looked really really hard and unpleasant and I was really glad that I didn't have to do it to succeed... in school.

      After school, I eventually found myself at a place in life where every single option to move forward in life was something that didn't just make initial sense to me. Everything was something hard that I sucked at and I didn't even know where to begin trying. It took years but I eventually figured out how to tackle problems-I-don't-know-how-to-tackle. I'm still not sure how to put in words what exactly it is that I learned, and that's frustrating to realize. I'm still absolutely terrified to be put in a position where I'm responsible for doing something I don't already know how to do thoroughly, but somehow I'm now able to "fake it till I make it", to just start doing something, even if it might not be the right thing, and then rely on feedback from that process to refine what I do, until eventually I do know what I'm doing. But it still scares the shit out of me; I just feel like screaming "I don't know how to do this! Don't rely on me, I have no idea what I'm doing!" except I have to be someone people can rely on or else I'm useless to anyone, and as success in adult life hinges entirely upon being useful to other people, I have to keep my mouth shut and just figure it out anyway.

      I wonder if that's related to the D-K effect at all; I am acutely aware of exactly what I don't know, and I know I wouldn't want to rely on someone with that dearth of knowledge to do this, so I feel like I shouldn't allow anyone else to rely on me, except I have to, both to survive and to ever have any opportunity to become more reliable. (As a side-effect, I'm also now realizing how many supposed experts I rely on, from construction people to auto mechanics to even doctors, are all just as unreliable at their jobs as I am at my job, and that's kind of frightening and at times infuriating, when the whole reason I'm paying someone to do something is because they're supposed to be better at it than me, but a not-even-amateur like me can still find faults in their work, faults which they acknowledge once pointed out, but wouldn't have spotted without me).

      Anyway, good point about relational ability being important to success as well. I would say that I do actually have a low intrinsic need for relationships —I'm generally very happy being alone, and try to structure my life in a way that I'm not in anyone else's business and they're not in mine —but when I set my mind to it I do seem to have high relational ability. When I first went off to college, after doing independent study throughout high school and consequently not having much social contact at all, that in turn after being the unpopular weird nerd throughout elementary school, I decided that I was going to make a concerted effort to h

      --
      -Forrest Cameranesi, Geek of all Trades
      "I am Sam. Sam I am. I do not like trolls, flames, or spam."
  34. Oh oh by Tablizer · · Score: 1

    "Professor Dunning is quite confident in the results of the study." (Paraphrased...sorta)

    1. Re:Oh oh by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Fail. Wrong implication direction.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  35. But I *am* the best! by Tablizer · · Score: 1

    I know I can out-troll anybody. Watch this!...

  36. The man that inspired this: McArthur Wheeler by uolamer · · Score: 5, Informative

    "The study was inspired by the case of McArthur Wheeler, a man who robbed two banks after covering his face with lemon juice in the mistaken belief that, as lemon juice is usable as invisible ink, it would prevent his face from being recorded on surveillance cameras." - Wikipedia

    In 1995 McArthur Wheeler actually tested this beforehand with a camera. One way or another his test proved he was invisible, at least to himself.... (lens cap maybe? bad film? somehow didn't get himself in frame when taking the picture?).. He robbed two banks in plain daylight. Later was showed the CCTV footage and still didn't understand how it captured his face..

    I read about this a few months ago and just found this to be one of the funniest things. Imagine doing something so stupid a whole psychological theory was inspired.

    --
    s/©//g
    1. Re:The man that inspired this: McArthur Wheeler by Quirkz · · Score: 2, Funny

      Maybe with lemon juice in his eyes he couldn't see anything, and assumed the picture itself was blurry, rather than his vision?

    2. Re:The man that inspired this: McArthur Wheeler by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Citation needed.

      Not everything on Wikipedia is true. How do I know that Wikipedia sometimes gets it wrong? Because I saw it on the Internet.

    3. Re:The man that inspired this: McArthur Wheeler by uolamer · · Score: 1

      Find your own citation out of these 5,780 results

      http://lmgtfy.com/?q=%22McArth...

      --
      s/©//g
    4. Re:The man that inspired this: McArthur Wheeler by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hey, he's in good company: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect

    5. Re:The man that inspired this: McArthur Wheeler by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "The study was inspired by the case of McArthur Wheeler, a man who robbed two banks after covering his face with lemon juice in the mistaken belief that, as lemon juice is usable as invisible ink, it would prevent his face from being recorded on surveillance cameras." - Wikipedia

      In 1995 McArthur Wheeler actually tested this beforehand with a camera. One way or another his test proved he was invisible, at least to himself.... (lens cap maybe? bad film? somehow didn't get himself in frame when taking the picture?).. He robbed two banks in plain daylight. Later was showed the CCTV footage and still didn't understand how it captured his face..

      I read about this a few months ago and just found this to be one of the funniest things. Imagine doing something so stupid a whole psychological theory was inspired.

      It sounds like our government leaders, the would drown if they looked up during a good rain storm. I don't mean just favorite your party, or mine, but damn near all of them.

  37. And thus... by roc97007 · · Score: 1

    ...management was born.

    --
    Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
  38. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 2

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  39. And we seem to enjoy watching it by ArhcAngel · · Score: 1

    High profile examples of this personified:
    Homer Simpson
    Peter Griffin
    Sheldon Cooper
    And society will follow a confident idiot off a cliff before they will follow an unsure genius anywhere.

    --
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it." - K
    1. Re:And we seem to enjoy watching it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Also: Pierre Dubuc, and Mathieu Nebra from openclassrooms, previously know as lesiteduzero.

  40. I was just talking about this with my wife... by weiserfireman · · Score: 5, Interesting

    She asked me, "how do you know you are a good computer technician"

    Me, "because I know how little I really know. When I was a good amateur, I thought I knew a lot, and was confident, but now, I know so much more that I know what I don't know. That makes me a good technician."

    She was confused, but I now I know there there is a scientific name for what I was trying to explain.

    1. Re:I was just talking about this with my wife... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      My old boss is convinced that he is a top notch computer technician.

      He told one customer that Apple changed from PowerPC to Intel because "the industry" got together and told Apple if they didn't change, then they were going to build a new internet just for Apple.

      He told another that Apple and Linux were incredibly popular, but the numbers of users were falling because they were ending up in jail for jealously writing viruses to attack Windows.

      Once, I had installed a high-end power hungry video card with the two input (parallel) power adapter as instructed by the manual. He saw it, and shouted at me, unplugged it, and explained that if I'd burned it out by doubling the voltage I'd be paying for it, and I was lucky that I didn't.

      Then there was the time that he told our contractor electrical engineer that someone had wired the school up but... I forget what, I think he said the electrician had wired it up but inverted the phase of the power, and that caused a couple of power supplies to pop.

      Whatever the case, the engineer later said to me that if the wiring had been done the way my boss claimed, the local substation would have been inserious trouble.

      But my old boss is definitely a "genious," and has had more than 10 years experience as a computer technician. (I wouldn't trust him to insert RAM sticks.)

    2. Re:I was just talking about this with my wife... by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Indeed. Knowing your limitations both allows you to act competently, and to know when you need to overcome some of that limitations. If you do not know, you just end up breaking it.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    3. Re:I was just talking about this with my wife... by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Prime example you have there. And one fundamentally unable to learn, as he already "knows" everything. Unfortunately, the world has become far too safe a place for these morons to get themselves killed in a timely fashion.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    4. Re:I was just talking about this with my wife... by TeknoHog · · Score: 1

      But my old boss is definitely a "genious," and has had more than 10 years experience as a computer technician. (I wouldn't trust him to insert RAM sticks.)

      That's why they are called "ram" -- you don't insert the sticks, you ram sticks.

      --
      Escher was the first MC and Giger invented the HR department.
  41. I remeber by obarthelemy · · Score: 1

    getting a lot of flack in high school for answering "I don't know" to a lot of stuff. And not just from teachers ^^

    --
    The Cloud - because you don't care if your apps and data are up in the air.
  42. Dunning is Right, He overestimates himself. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    People who had filed for bankruptcy "rated their overall financial knowledge more, not less, positively than other respondents did. The difference was slight, but it was beyond a statistical doubt: 23 percent of the recently bankrupted respondents gave themselves the highest possible self-rating; among the rest, only 13 percent did so. "

    This is a basic misuse of statistics for a conclusion they don't support. What this shows is that people who go bankrupt are more likely to overrate their financial literacy than those that don't. That overconfidence sometimes leads to bankruptcy is hardly a surprise, is it? But it tells us nothing about the other 77% of respondents who also went bankrupt.

    Moreover he can't seem to distinguish between people who are bluffing about what they know and those that are really clueless about their lack of knowledge. He seems to believe that what people say is always what they think.

    I think most of us have heard the expression that someone "knows just enough to be dangerous." There are lots of things where limited knowledge makes us much more certain we are right because we lack the detailed knowledge that would make us doubt ourselves. Just read any news and you will find stories that is an occupational hazard of reporters and, naturally, they pass their cluelessness on to their readers.

  43. Intelligence is.. by Rinikusu · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Intelligence is knowing that everyone around you is full of shit.
    Wisdom is knowing you are, too.

    --
    If you were me, you'd be good lookin'. - six string samurai
    1. Re:Intelligence is.. by gweihir · · Score: 1

      If you have wisdom, you can also start doing something about _your_ problem and overcome it. Sadly, most human beings never reach that point.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    2. Re:Intelligence is.. by LQ · · Score: 1

      Intelligence is knowing that everyone around you is full of shit. Wisdom is knowing you are, too.

      The flip-side is imposter syndrome where you live in fear of being found out as an idiot. You wonder how long you can keep on winging it doing your well paid job when you know you're not really that good at it. So maybe if you feel that, you should be less hard on yourself. This, of course, does not apply to me as I'm actually brilliant.

  44. Openclassrooms by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The guys from this french site: fr.openclassrooms.com are a bunch of beginners who wants to change how teaching works.. Problem is they don't know what they're talking about, still they want to give people certifications... and they don't realize it because their audience is also mostly beginners..

  45. I wish by raymorris · · Score: 1

    I wish that were so. My dad was very successful. I chose to not do what he did (work his ass off at school and work).
    Unsurprisingly, I was not successful. Later, I chose to do what he did - I had a full time job, a part time job, and was in school "full time". Lo and behold, I became successful.

    1. Re:I wish by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That proves nothing. Of course hard work correlates with success, but it is not necessary. I can tell you because the only time I was successful in my life was the only time I wasn't trying.

    2. Re:I wish by RuffMasterD · · Score: 1

      Boosh Junior, is that you?

      --
      Human Rights, Article 12: Freedom from Interference with Privacy, Family, Home and Correspondence
  46. Well that explains it by Anon-Admin · · Score: 1

    Now I fully understand the CIO's decisions

  47. Bertrand Russell put it more succinctly: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt."

  48. The trick is to move forward by Anonanonaon · · Score: 0

    Ugh. I don't buy the DK effect.

    It's just another tool for attacking people at the University level; eroding confidence, teaching people to turn away from the development of their own instincts and senses of exploration. -To make people give up even trying to develop their own minds and souls and to instead turn toward authority figures for permission to think.

    It's easy to point at idiots and psychopaths and say, "That could be YOU! For SHAME!"

    Sorry, but there's a difference between Snakes and Monkeys. If you're a Monkey, it's okay to use your thumbs and your brains, it's okay to move forward with confidence even when you haven't got it 100% figured out. But that's okay. It's okay to make mistakes. It's nature's bio-feedback! It's how we Learn.

    It's a tragedy that adults are so terrified of being wrong that they stop trying.

  49. Coin a new phrase by Scottingham · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I'd like to coin a new phrase: The Kruger Hump.

    This is the inflection point where you realize just how little you actually know. Up to that point is marked by the D-K effect.

  50. I thought ... by PPH · · Score: 2

    ... Dunning-Kruger was the name of the business school our CEO got his degree from.

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
  51. This finding can be captured by the statements by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Everyone is a terrible driver but me"

    and

    "My child is above average" (Lake Wobegone Effect)

    1. Re:This finding can be captured by the statements by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Also happens that most professors think they are above average....

      As to drivers, here is one:
          Radio announcer: "A wrong-way driver is driving on route xyz..."
          Driver: "One? Hundreds!"

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  52. Seems consistent by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity."

    William Butler Yeats

  53. I blame women by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 5, Insightful

    that sounds a bit confident. maybe it's too confident. maybe you are succumbing to Dunning-Kruger yourself!

    I have found that if I sound confident, other people will listen and follow, regardless of whether I know what I am talking about. I have also found that women tend to be attracted to confident, self-assured men, and are less concerned about whether the guy is actually right or wrong. So, if my theory is correct, men should display more self-confidence. Maybe the author already considered gender differences, but I didn't RTFA, I am just assuming that I am right.

    1. Re:I blame women by Neo-Rio-101 · · Score: 2

      ...which is funny because in East Asian countries (specifically China, Japan), being and sounding overly confident comes off arrogant and boastful.... EVEN IF you ARE confident about certain things. You'll just sound pompous, to the point where you have to fake inadequacy to get people to take you seriously.

      This would explain why nerdy and geeky men typically hook up with Asian women.
      *ducks*

      --
      READY.
      PRINT ""+-0
    2. Re:I blame women by Sardaukar86 · · Score: 1

      This would explain why nerdy and geeky men typically hook up with Asian women.

      ..and here was I foolishly thinking it was because the Asian women in question were hot.

      --
      ..Mullah or Pope, Preacher or Poet, who was it wrote: "Give any one species too much rope and they'll fuck it up"?
    3. Re:I blame women by Neo-Rio-101 · · Score: 2

      ... I mean that Asian girls prefer men who lack self-confidence. Maybe because they're easier targets to walk all over?
      this isn't scientific, so I'll stop here.

      --
      READY.
      PRINT ""+-0
    4. Re:I blame women by Sardaukar86 · · Score: 1

      If that's the case I'd love to meet some of these Asian girls you mention!

      Seriously though, I was just being a bit flippant rather than making an actual criticism of your comment. :)

      --
      ..Mullah or Pope, Preacher or Poet, who was it wrote: "Give any one species too much rope and they'll fuck it up"?
    5. Re:I blame women by nukenerd · · Score: 2

      This would explain why nerdy and geeky men typically hook up with Asian women.

      ..and here was I foolishly thinking it was because the Asian women in question were hot.

      Nerdy men get hot women? I think that this thread has taken a wrong turning somewhere.

    6. Re:I blame women by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      so, essentially --- regardless of right or wrong, you want to be listened to, you want to be followed, and you want easy women? none of these things matter. you will be dead soon.

    7. Re:I blame women by neurovish · · Score: 1

      that sounds a bit confident. maybe it's too confident. maybe you are succumbing to Dunning-Kruger yourself!

      I have found that if I sound confident, other people will listen and follow, regardless of whether I know what I am talking about. I have also found that women tend to be attracted to confident, self-assured men, and are less concerned about whether the guy is actually right or wrong. So, if my theory is correct, men should display more self-confidence. Maybe the author already considered gender differences, but I didn't RTFA, I am just assuming that I am right.

      Taking what you say in a work context, I would agree. Whenever I go into a meeting, get asked a question, and respond with an accurate "it will most likely work", everybody freaks out and thinks I don't know what I'm doing. If I respond with "yeah, there's no way that can fail" while running through my head some edge cases that would cause it to fail, everybody leaves happy and congratulating themselves on a successful meeting. I eventually had it pointed out to me what I was doing, and now I see it clearly. For the most part, managers above mine have no clue what is going on, and only think it terms of "it will work" and "it won't work". They aren't going to go to the CIO and other senior directors and say "this is a good path, we are 92% certain it will work". In the end if I say it will work, and it really doesn't, then they have short memories anyways ... most of the time.

      The most frustrating is when there's two options, one presented by somebody who has a history of not getting things right and generally doesn't know what he's doing, and one I present. The imbecile goes in with "this is the way to go, absolutely", and I go in with "this is the solution most likely to work. We'll know more after it runs for a few weeks and we have more history in this environment. They always go with the imbecile, and it always fails.

    8. Re:I blame women by neurovish · · Score: 1

      ... I mean that Asian girls prefer men who lack self-confidence. Maybe because they're easier targets to walk all over?
      this isn't scientific, so I'll stop here.

      mmmm, with high heels too

  54. Christie et al. are confident Monsters by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sad to note that Christie the Gov of NJ is a monster in human skin who predates humans and uses his office and federal laws to accomplish his sexual exploits.

    What perverts: Christie, Cumo, Scott and the insect Gov of Illinois and Maine.

    We need the Orkin Man to exterminate the monsters among us, forget about Ebola, Ebola is NOT a problem, Crhistie is the Pervert Problem that need dealing with.

  55. As John Cleese pointed out by msobkow · · Score: 4, Interesting

    As John Cleese pointed out, you need a minimum level of intelligence to even realize that you are stupid.

    Sadly, a huge percentage of the population is too stupid to realize that they're morons.

    --
    I do not fail; I succeed at finding out what does not work.
    1. Re:As John Cleese pointed out by gweihir · · Score: 2

      Indeed. Matches my experience. And unfortunately, the confident ones tend get promoted or elected.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    2. Re:As John Cleese pointed out by silfen · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Sadly, a huge percentage of the population is too stupid to realize that they're morons.

      More importantly, a huge percentage of intellectuals, politicians, government advisers, economists, regulators, and administrators are too stupid to realize that they're morons in almost everything other than a (usually irrelevant) narrow specialty.

  56. I call it the "Dumb Shit Krugman Effect". by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Seriously, that asshole is still pretending to be an expert on the economy after having advocated the housing bubble as a remedy for the dot com bubble.

  57. Dunning Kreuger are not aware of their incompetenc by snowsnoot · · Score: 1

    Example: I know I'm not competent at drawing. I need only look at the page to know I struggle even making a stick figure drawing. Just sayin'.

  58. Like when making a system that is idiot proof, by k6mfw · · Score: 1

    along comes better idiots?

    --
    mfwright@batnet.com
  59. Obligatory Socrates Quote by catchblue22 · · Score: 1

    When I left him, I reasoned thus with myself: I am wiser than this man, for neither of us appears to know anything great and good; but he fancies he knows something, although he knows nothing; whereas I, as I do not know anything, so I do not fancy I do. In this trifling particular, then, I appear to be wiser than he, because I do not fancy I know what I do not know.

    From Socrates, The Apology (399 B.C. or so)

    Everything old is new again.

    --
    This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)
  60. See: Truthiness by lq_x_pl · · Score: 1
    --
    An internal system operation returned the error "The operation completed successfully.".
  61. This happens because this behavior is rewarded... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    ...in all but a few contexts. Sure, on standardized tests and in chess tournaments, confidently doing the wrong thing doesn't give you any advantage. But humans didn't evolve to do well on standardized tests and win chess tournaments. We're social animals, we evolved to impress one another to social advantage.

    In politics, which is really just a giant test-bed for effective social messaging, there's a saying that for any complicated problem, there's an answer that's simple, straightforward, low-cost, and most importantly: wrong. Yet it goes without saying that this is still a winning message. Candidates who answer questions with: "Well, it's complicated, you need to factor in..." don't even make it through the primaries. Candidates who say "We can stop the spread of Ebola by applying this magic (and free!) federal policy lotion" win easily.

    Of course, maybe I'm wrong...

  62. This does _not_ mean confident people are stupid! by gweihir · · Score: 2

    The statement is "stupid people are confident" as in stupid(p) => confident(p).
    It is not "confident people are stupid" (i.e. confident(p) => stupid(p)). Confident people are a mix of a small group that actually has a clue and a large group that is stupid.

    As this discussion thread so far nicely shows, quite a few of the people here get the implication wrong. They are in the "large group".

    --
    Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  63. I notice Dunning Kruger Effect everyday by vasilevich · · Score: 0

    I live in a third world, backwards country and the people here overestimate their own abilities. It's not even funny.

    1. Re:I notice Dunning Kruger Effect everyday by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How's the Gou rou?

  64. Yes, yes we are. by TigerPlish · · Score: 1

    Adiane: "Are you humans that stupid?"

    Yoko: "Unfortunately... yes, yes we are."

    Attenborough: "Who cares! Fire!

    Our fine species, in a nutshell.

    --
    The "Civilized World" jumped the shark ca. 1973.
  65. My favorite headline by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    My first experience with this was from this article, which quite possibly has the best headline ever - "Incompetent People Really Have No Clue, Studies Find / They're blind to own failings, others' skills"

  66. Levels of competency by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    lvl1 - unconsciously incompetent - I don't know that I am dumb... so I sometimes think I know it all
    lvl 2 - consciously incompetent - I now know that I don't know everything and have gaps in my knowledge/skills.
    lvl 3 - consciously competent - I know that I know stuff
    lvl 4 - unconsciously competent - I know so much stuff that I don't know that I know it all..

  67. we are by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I would bet professors are mentally above average. Have you known many average people? below average? Average is pretty fucking stupid. Carlin had it right. Half the people are below average. You might have daddy get you in and thru a college degree but that happens for professors less than people win the lottery.

    1. Re:we are by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Obviously, the full comparison was that professors think they are above average professors. Anything else would be obvious nonsense.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  68. He knows just enough to be dangerous. by pz · · Score: 2

    Seems to explain the effect where a little knowledge in a field appears to make one reckless and dangerous, whereas deeper knowledge makes one cautious.

    --

    Put my fist through my alarm clock with its ding-dong death inside my ear. - The Blackjacks.
  69. Re: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "A Man's Got to Know his Limitations"- Clint Eastwood, Magnum Force. This is said before he blows up the dirty cop... remember this as kid, and when I train people I tell them this. Poetry in motion. Maybe somewhat relevant to the D-K effect.

  70. I don't know what you are talking about. by ememisya · · Score: 1

    Personally I'm brilliant!

  71. also the "Dumb Shit Obama" effect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    He's been just as incompetent.

    As will anybody we put in charge. Wanting to be president is itself a sign of terminal idiocy.

  72. yet people keep voting for experts by silfen · · Score: 1

    People have understood this for a long time. This is what people refer to when they call our current president "the anointed one", someone whose incorrectly judges himself, and is judged by others, to be an expert on a lot of things he knows next to nothing about.

    That is why many people want small government, because a large part of the so-called "experts" in government clearly don't know what they are doing; by that I mean that they fail to deliver what they promise. You have a better chance making decisions for yourself than having them imposed on you by a president, cabinet, or other meddling government expert with Dunning-Kruger effect.

  73. Confident? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Wouldn't I have to be confident to be a confident idiot... I know How uninformed I am if that's what you're saying....

  74. And in Conclusion.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "..the incompetent are often blessed with an inappropriate confidence, buoyed by something that feels to them like knowledge."

    I sharply agree, but what does this have to do with politics?

  75. less facts = more work by Kevin+Fishburne · · Score: 1

    I'm one of those overconfident idiots who never knows what he's talking about (being an expert in nothing), but I suspect it has to do with the higher mental effort required to intelligently form and express an idea about what is inadequately understood than to simply regurgitate what one thinks they already know. I remember when I was a kid my shrink gave me an IQ test and asked me why there were seasons. I had no fucking idea, but started thinking about possible reasons. I knew the Earth's orbit was elliptical and guessed our distance from the Sun was responsible (incorrectly, of course). I suppose demonstrating that I was able to use what little I knew to form a reasonable hypothesis was good enough for the test, but the point is the very act of pushing myself forward based on inadequate information gave me confidence.

    What worries me are the people who speak confidently as pure, thoughtless bullshit pours from their mouth (politicians, for example). At least give it a really hard think before you make a fool of yourself.

    --
    Buy your next Linux PC at eightvirtues.com
  76. confident idiots on slashdot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    obviously /. is one of them. Computer scientists especially are the most arrogant, no explanation required. Buisness majors can be arrogant also, always out to try and make money, any way possible. One kid I know started to learn Swift to program apps on apple products (really?), just because he wanted to make money and be the next Mark Zuckerberg, if he was truly smart he would know not to make such a move in time consumption.

    Programming has always been just a hobby for me, a computer science major would be a bad move for alot of people. Instead I just take a math class or two every semester of my college career, and shit on master degree computer scientists by reading Donald Knuth "Concrete Mathematics" without taking one CS course, ofc this is just one of the few.

    The title of the article is just another word for arrogance. Those who claim to be the "most rational", or "scientific", and always pondering about their IQ levels are usually the most arrogant of people. Religion to them is just a way for them to test their rationality, ofc religion is easily defeatable with the use of logical analysis, because it is all based on beliefs, because you belief in nothing (no god or afterlife) does not make you more rational or scientific.

    Science creates the highest arrogance of it them all, they think because they know something most or the average person doesn't know it makes them smart. Yet if we look back in history even the smartest of people would be considered morons today, etc wrong. Einstein and Newton will look small in comparison to what we could be in thousands of years.

    Intelligence or IQ is not based off of other people, or the general population (this is what creates arrogance), it is actually based off the universe.
    Intelligence is done in comparison to the universe, not other people, in which if we compare ourselves to the universe (can we ourselves create a universe like this one using our intelligence?) we will actually know they we know nothing in comparsion.

    The fact is you are all morons, those who consider themselves to be smart are actually making up for what they lack in other areas.

  77. It's pretty easy to identify confident morons. by Brannon · · Score: 1

    They will usually find some way to blame everything on Barack Obama.

    1. Re:It's pretty easy to identify confident morons. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They will usually find some way to blame everything on Barack Obama.

      Well, good thing I didn't "blame" Obama for "everything", I merely stated that he was arrogant and incompetent.

  78. Re:This does _not_ mean confident people are stupi by phantomfive · · Score: 1

    You got it wrong too. There are stupid people who are not confident, so there is no implication. A lot of stupid people are confident. And a lot of smart people are not confident.

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  79. Woody Allen by alphazulu0 · · Score: 1

    "Confidence is what you have before you understand the problem."
    — Woody Allen

    az0

  80. Isn't it a reflection of desired outcome? by evanh · · Score: 1

    Doh! I'd misspelt the subject. :(

  81. Faith by SpaceCracker · · Score: 1

    Overconfidence in unsubstantiated knowledge.
    Hmmm, make me wonder: could the Dunning-Kruger effect explain this whole religion thing?

    --
    sigo ergo sum
  82. Group psychology =/= individual competence by Peter+(Professor)+Fo · · Score: 1

    A lot of knowledgeable, experienced and clever people have 'been there, done that' when it comes to committees etc. As their interest may not be in leadership but delivering tech or just getting things done without a lot of opinionated discussion from people who exhibit the D-K effect, they take a back seat and find excuses to avoid management meetings and responsibility. Many management methods are designed to leech the brains from the better qualified so why would I want to join in with what is essentially a bunch of amateurs diluting my competence, wasting my time, arguing and deciding to be idiots regardless of my clear advice.

  83. Jim Jeffries by Detonia · · Score: 1
    --
    Comment received signal SIGSEGV, Segmentation fault.
  84. How sure is he of this? by rs79 · · Score: 1

    Or has Dunning been Krugered?

    --
    Need Mercedes parts ?
  85. Best explanation of Celebrity cult and Reality TV by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...we have to date. That is all.

  86. Big suprise by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Who hasn't noticed that behaviour from a colleague, boss, ... ?

    People not nearly as knowledgable on a field as they believe. Always going the wrong way. Always finding an excuse to spend months on a task where a few minutes, applied at the right place with the right way, are more than enough.
    The worst ? They are also very difficult to correct ... since they know "everything" already.

    Sigh ...

  87. oh yes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I am absolutely confident that I am fluent with SAP ABAP ERP and BE while working in the mega corporation in Mumbai.
    Congratulations. You're hired!

  88. Missing Caveat by meustrus · · Score: 1

    We Are All Confident Idiots...In America.

    --
    I sometimes ask revealing, often ignorant-seeming questions. Maybe they're harder to answer than you think.
  89. Re:This does _not_ mean confident people are stupi by gweihir · · Score: 1

    This is a "statistical implication", not a logical one, i.e. it just has a high likelihood for a random sample to be true. Really, your statement is complete BS as it ignores the context of the discussion.

    --
    Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  90. Re:This does _not_ mean confident people are stupi by phantomfive · · Score: 1

    Are you trying to demonstrate the topic of the article personally, or does it really bother you that much when someone implies you might be stupid (since apparently you do have confidence)?

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  91. Re:This does _not_ mean confident people are stupi by gweihir · · Score: 1

    Now you have gone completely off the rails. This does not merit an answer.

    --
    Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  92. In other words by axl917 · · Score: 1

    every Fox News anchor.

  93. Re:This does _not_ mean confident people are stupi by phantomfive · · Score: 1

    And yet you answered anyway.

    In any case, even by "statistical implication" you are wrong.....if "confident people are a mix of a small group that actually has a clue and a large group that is stupid" (those are your words) then indeed confident(p) => stupid(p) more often than not. Surely you understand that.

    Furthermore, another way you are also wrong is that the D-K effect indeed does say that skilled people tend to be less confident. That's "statistical implication" for you.

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  94. I think you mean 'uppity'. by Brannon · · Score: 1

    It's okay, we can all hear your dog whistle words.

  95. Well this explains everything... by gtworld2001 · · Score: 1

    Finally, an explanation for Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld as well as why the U.S. had eight years of hell. Then again, it also explains the hopeless mess that Obama has made worse than it was when he inherited it. Oh, mark Rob and Doug Ford deciphered as well.

  96. George W Bush. by DarthVain · · Score: 1

    Sounds a lot like George W Bush. I think much of his support came from his confidence.

    Stupid people are confident in their answers. Politicians also come usually with some simplistic ideology that they firmly believe in which is also pretty dubious.

    Smart people question. Smart people are critical thinkers. Just regurgitating "facts" as gospel is a no no. Smart people know that most things are more complicated than they might seem. Everything has a story behind it, debate, perspective, and bias.

    Two quick examples which recently proved to me more than ever that this is the case:
    1) (This one I may have even learned on Slashdot) When I was in school I was taught that things fall due to gravity at 9.8m/s. If someone asked me the question, that would have been my response. However, they use this value to make it easy to do simple calculations. As it turns out, that 9.8m/s is an estimate. What it actually is, really depends on where the heck you are on the Earth, as it can vary from place to place. Sure I might have known that had I taken some more advanced courses on the subject, but all I had known was what I was taught, and they certainly didn't tell the younger audience the whole story as they likely didn't want to complicate the issue.

    2) (This one I learned at a Trivia night at a pub) Simple question: What is the planet with the furthest orbit from the Sun. Again easy, I was taught in school that the furthest planet was Pluto (and this isn't even getting into a definition of what is a Planet and what is not). However that answer would be wrong. The planet with the furthest orbit is Jupiter. Even when I got the question, I started to question what I knew. A date was mentioned. I also knew independently that Pluto has a weird orbit. I could surmise that perhaps at given times, Pluto isn't the furthest planet. It isn't. It will be again in about 100 or whatever years or so, but currently Jupiter is further away. However again, likely the teacher, doesn't want to confuse the issue (facts), with details, like different orbits, and how it changes over time.

    So there are two simple "facts" about hard science, that has more to the story that you might be aware of. Smart people know that they don't know everything, and that there will likely always be someone that knows some topic better than you do.

    However in terms of politicians and running a country, factually explaining in detail the nuances of every question and what the possible answers are, and why you chose what to believe and your reasoned response, might be lost on the gray masses. Many like the comfort that confidence (even if false), that says; this is the issue, and I have the solution! Go back to enjoying your infotainment...

    1. Re:George W Bush. by Tunefix · · Score: 1

      In example 2: Shure you aren't thinking about Neptune and not Jupiter?

    2. Re:George W Bush. by DarthVain · · Score: 1

      Could be, I would have to look it up! :)

  97. As George Carlin pointed out by DarthVain · · Score: 1

    “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

  98. Obligatory Princess Bride Quote by Zynder · · Score: 1

    Socrates speaks like the Sicilian from Princess Bride. You knew I'd respond this way so I can clearly not choose the reply you expect! But then you'd know I'd know that so I must choose the reply you expect!

  99. Total Bullshit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That's total bullshit and you know it. You come to Slashdot to run your mouth about things that you really don't know but think you do, ya know, like this article is telling us about. We'll argue with you and tell you you're wrong but you just double down on the derp and stay the course. Of course, your only reply will be "No one has told me I'm wrong in a way that's interesting enough to show me something new." The fact you qualify each and every comment you post like that is a dead give away that all you're here for is some debate, which isn't wrong fundamentally, but you don't EVER change your mind, and you certainly never apologize for being a pretentious douche when we do call you out on it.

  100. And that's what's wrong today by palion · · Score: 1

    How many times have I wished to be stupid.

    --
    Well, well
  101. Speaking of which... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    He doesn't know what he is talking about! That's why he thinks he's an expert at this.

  102. The Silver Lining by BobSteinVisiBone · · Score: 1

    It's fashionable to cite the Dunning-Kruger effect as evidence of human dark natures: overconfidence, insecurity, or the foolish tendency of the masses to overvalue bravado. But what of the advantages?

    If the optimal knowledge and skill to make a decision is not the same as maximal knowledge and skill, then there's a backside to the advantage curve. More than diminishing returns, competence beyond a certain point may hinder and hobble decision making. Mental resources are finite. There may be such a thing as knowing too much.

    Maybe there's a mental organ that tries to guess when we've learned enough and it's time to act. In fine-tuning any sensibility, it's the misfiring that gains undue attention. Certainly the headlines of any age are rich with examples of right action flummoxed by call for more study. To the extent that a company or a family or a nation needs a leader at all, is the best party always the smartest duck in the room? To the extent not, the sliver of human nature that recognizes this could be branded Dunning-Kruger and yet may have deep worth.

    The most effective team may have the first-rate thinkers second in command.

    --
    Bob Stein, http://bobste.in
  103. Well... by doom · · Score: 1

    This certainly explains web designer syndrome, doesn't it?

  104. I Am Right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Most of us suffer from severe case of self induced rectal cranial invergence because we like to think we are right. Which leads me to the definition of a conservative. That is a person so closed minded and opinionated that their mind cannot improve.