Slashdot Mirror
Nintendo Shares Plummet After Investors Realize It Doesn't Actually Make Pokemon Go (theverge.com)
Sam Byford, reporting for The Verge: Nintendo shares have skyrocketed since Pokemon Go's release and instant transformation into global cultural phenomenon, but they fell dramatically today after investors realized that Nintendo doesn't actually make the game. Nintendo put out a statement after the close of trading on Friday pointing out that the bottom-line impact will be "limited" as it only owns 32 percent of The Pokemon Company, and that revenue from the game and its Pokemon Go Plus smartwatch peripheral have been accounted for in the company's current forecasts. Pokemon Go is a collaboration between The Pokemon Company and Niantic Labs, the developer who previously created the similar AR game Ingress as part of Google. This apparent revelation caused shares to plummet in Monday trading, with the stock dropping 17 percent at one point, representing about $6.4 billion in value; as Bloomberg notes, Tokyo stock exchange rules prevent share prices from moving more than 18 percent in a single day.
The real news here isn't really about Nintendo or Pokemon.
The real news is about investors pumping billions into a company without even the most cursory research.
This signature is false.
If the Business and Economic sector weren't filled with stupid people; and economics and business management education even in the top Universities weren't filled with bad teaching (either by design or by pure stupidity) and too much philosophizing and misinformation,
we wouldn't be having cycles of economic crisis constantly happening. The worst is the education part, because people put more credence on ideological and theorizing bullshit rather than complex situational analysis (because following a preferred guidebook as if it were a holy book is easier than actually turning on your brain).
This is a perfect example of that, business and economic "experts" choosing guidebooks over analysis.
The herd realized it over the weekend and sent each other emails? How does this happen en masse? Suddenly one person realizes something that is publicly available information, and mentioned in many articles? Presumably at least *some* people knew.
Nintendo has lots of worthy IP that could be made into mobile games, using Mario, Link, etc. There's plenty of potential left at Nintendo if they simply move beyond console gaming.
Remember kids, if you're not paying for the service, YOU ARE THE PRODUCT THAT IS BEING SOLD.
It's still 60% above what it was on 7th July... but doesn't seem to be done plummeting yet.
Just let them get Wii U Zelda out before folding, eh?
Here's something for graph fans, since there wasn't one of the share price:
http://abstrusegoose.com/191
systemd is Roko's Basilisk.
Automated trading only reinforces the problem, since it magnifies emotionally driven market conditions.
I'm surprised so many people didn't see this coming. The share price was totally out-of-whack with reality. I'd have shorted the hell out of Nintendo's stock (if I had money and the means to do so). Surely, someone with money did? Anyone here?
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
Pump and dump Does someone need to look in to this
Isn't the Pokemon Company the company that handles Merchandising, but Game Freak the ones that create and Publish the games? Isn't it supposed to be the case that Neither of these companies directly tied to Nintendo, and Game Freak could be considered a Third Party Developer like WayForward?
The stock market isn't rational. It never was.
A company lays off people the stocks go up. Not because the company is restructuring to something new, but because that is what people are told is how it works. Layoffs raise the stock prices. So you hear about layoffs you run to try to get the price before it rises more.
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
Where is the quote that says that an investor thought Nintendo owned Pokemon Go?
Alternative Headlines: Nintendo Stock drops after report it already accounted for Pokemon Go income
or
Nintendo already priced for Pokemon Go
or
Unknown information revealed (how much nintendo was making from pokemon go), stock changes accordingly (it dropped)
Btw, these kinds of headlines "Stock plummets because of X" are market clickbait. They are everywhere and they are created by people who know little, but try to attribute motivation. But they'll get more clicks with a definitive title.
But also, it's still up 60%! Even if it drops another 20%, that would still be not bad for Nintendo stock.
But I got "minor text fixes" today.
Brilliance without wisdom, power without conscience. Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants.
Would that be a sufficient condition? It's not like only business college graduates are influencing the economy, most of the economy is about (business-)laymen doing things.
Ezekiel 23:20
Marxism can't come fast enough for me. I really hate this fucking planet.
" revenue from the game and its Pokemon Go Plus smartwatch peripheral have been accounted for in the company's current forecasts." Investors thought this craze and everyone playing it was totally unexpected.
A %17 pullback after doubling? seriously, that's not hardly a plummet
(If at first you don't succeed, do it different next time!)
Did they really jump-ship for that reason? Nowhere in the game is Nintendo even mentioned. I never did understand the stock jump with Nintendo, though. I figured if anything, Pokemon Company, Game Freaks, or Niantic would be the ones that would skyrocket (assuming they're tradeable companies).
Now I'm seriously confused as to how the stock market works. Is it really full of that many idiots that just throw money at anything without doing ANY research beforehand? The only real tie that Nintendo has with Pokemon is their tie to The Pokemon Company, so why didn't people jump on those stocks?
The stock market is insane. I never understood why the market would shoot up or down in a matter of hours based on some transient event. I blamed it on the stupidity of traders and their shortsightedness. That isn't completely wrong but then I read about our favorite people, hedge fund traders, having to make large short-term profit to stay alive. (It would be better if they all disappeared, I think, but that's another discussion.)
Retail investing should be banned. Unwashed masses should only be allowed to by index funds.
Wow - this has to be the stupidest thing I have ever seen.
Please lets start with a few problems:
1. Please define Unwashed Masses and give a definition that will show who is in/out of the group that isn't allowed to trade
2. Please define index fund - separate an index fund from something like Magellan which is one of the larges funds in the world, but is far from an index fun
Now that we have that out of the way, explain how making choices for myself should be made unlawful? Are you going to ban the lottery that has an even lower payout? What about my 401K plan, what choices am I allowed to have in my 401K... Is this different than "retail investing"?
I have mod points and I am not afraid to use them
Well, I won't dispute the market is insane, but the huge money is made on short-term variance ("derivatives"), not long-term tendencies. So, the more it floats, the more money "the right people" makes.
Which actually means the market is a travesty that should be replaced by something else that only operates in the long term, but there you have it.
A company lays off people the stocks go up.
Layoffs are a sign that a company is finally getting a grip on out-of-control expenses, and they usually happen long after they are obviously needed. The stock rise would only be irrational if layoffs did not result in rising profits, but they usually do. If you really believe investors are irrational, you can short the rising stock and get rich when it collapses. When that happens, please come back here and post a picture of your yacht.
What in the world do you think a stock price means in the context of "rational"? The price of a stock is the last price that the stock was traded for.
That is, if the price goes up or down, that means that someone actually owned shares, and sold it to someone else looking to buy. Why would someone want to buy a stock? A stock is a share of ownership, including the capital owned by the company (machinery, contracts, and IP), plus the expected payouts to the owners (shareholders) over the course of the company. If one of the company's brands becomes more valuable (for licensing opportunities), or if they invest in a new line of factories, or if they don't have anything better to do than pay out massive dividends, it makes sense that the value of the company -- and therefore the trade price of the shares -- would go up, too.
If you think you can do so much better than these individual traders making what you clearly think is such a boneheaded decision, then why not buy or sell some shares yourself?
Wonder what the public key field is for?
Or you can not short the stock, you can buy options instead. Those options will be incredibly cheap because the market is most likely to go the other way. Using this strategy you can be wrong many times and get a big payoff that time you are right.
This is how you exploit the market. If looking at this history and financials of the company the layoff looks like desperate flailing before the fall you can target your strategy more specifically and have a much larger yacht.
In some ways but it does correct itself.
The thing is an unregulated market will correct itself but it will experience massive highs which everyone will love than massive drops with could put people in the poor house or dead. So if unchecked people could be putting a lot of money in a failing business until it fails, once it fails it had corrected all the over investments.
However that is economic theory. Real life has real people who need to make it in the world. So there needs to be a moderating force. Regulation when used as a moderating force is quite handy, however it needs to allow some risk in the markets as risks allow wonderful successes just as it can cause massive failures. Communism and similar economics, while prevent people from starving on the street, it also puts the country in a time bubble where there isn't much progress over they years.
So the real question is where to set the dial on control. Too tight you cause your culture to stagnate, too little there is high chance of disastrous risk.
I expect the zone has less regulations than most of Europe but more regulations that the US has.
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
You won't be saying that when people try to take your home and you have to escape in the night to avoid being killed.
You see, some Marxists are just more Marxist than you... and I suspect you'll hate the planet even more if that day comes.
In other news, people who invest in stocks are often idiots with no clue as to 1) how the market works, 2) who makes what, or 3) why a stock price goes up or down.
I'm only surprised they weren't calling their stock brokers and telling them to "Get me 5000 shares of something called 'Pokemon!'"
Just cruising through this digital world at 33 1/3 rpm...
You won't be saying that when people try to take your home and you have to escape in the night to avoid being killed.
You see, some Marxists are just more Marxist than you... and I suspect you'll hate the planet even more if that day comes.
I don't have a home. I wish I did, but I don't.
And yeah, I hope for global Marxism _every day_.
I'd stay away from pokemongo but that's just me.
"Pokemongo only pawn in game of life."
Just cruising through this digital world at 33 1/3 rpm...
The stock market isn't rational.
^^^ This is the single most important thing you can learn about the market if you intend to invest in stocks.
The market isn't rational, it has virtually no predictable cause and effect, and it's subject to the whims of forces beyond anyone's ability to forecast.
Just cruising through this digital world at 33 1/3 rpm...
I don't think folks on the market were idiots, at some point due to market hype some folks hopped on hoping to ride the wave and to jump before it crashed. I think a lot of folks knew that it was way overvalued but decided to buy into it in the hopes to catch the wave. Some high speed trading systems that caught it early probably managed to make some decent money before it started to collapse again.
Reminds me of an old MAD magazine joke. I think it was a businessmens hall of fame. There was one entry for a guy who made a fortune selling Studebaker stock after he started a rumor that they had only shut down for several years for "retooling". He then lost a fortune buying Studebaker stock because he had heard a rumor that they had only shut down for several years for "retooling".
Hedge fonds are usually extremely long term fonds.
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
I don't know who gave this analogy:
The stock market is like a bet on the outcome of a beauty contest.
You see all the beauties, and probably can easy pick your favourite, however: you have to bet whom the jury will choose.
Betting who the jury will choose, is a complete different thing than deciding which is the most beautiful or agreeing with friends at a table about the three most beautiful ones.
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
I realize there's the enlightened self-interest in play here, but this is really a kind move on Nintendo's part.
1) There's a huge increase in valuation for their company.
Nintendo employees (especially VP and C-level) could make a lot of money off of this fact. Ultimately, that money is coming from a bunch of investors because these guys get paid in stock and stock options.
2) The investors made the wrong investment, so they'd either lose or gain money based on a false premise.
So, Nintendo is being the nice guys here by setting them straight. Their execs could've just cashed all their stock options right now and ran. Instead, they issue a statement helping to set these investors straight before they lose any more. It saves Nintendo's reputation as a long-term investment, but they also built a good will with investors.
3) Nintendo didn't need to do this
They have the cash reserves to essentially self-fund all their projects. They could've burnt through good will in the short term and made a ton of money, but they didn't. They aren't in need of investment capital and haven't been for 20+ years.
Good on you Nintendo for being an outstanding corporate citizen.
I never understood why the market would shoot up or down in a matter of hours based on some transient event.
It's because the stock holders are the owners of the company, and the price is how much they think they will earn over the lifetime of the company (minus the interest, as that money comes in the future). The news suddenly changes the future outlook of the company, and causes the price to change a lot.
Consider the following analogy, which may make more sense to you.
Imagine the most cliche, heartless, gold-digger girl trying to marry a rich husband. You have a boy who has a 4.0 GPA who has applied to Harvard, so she has a value of his lifetime earnings (say... $1 million USD). The very day he gets his acceptance letter, suddenly he's going to Harvard, so she immediately changes her estimate up (say... $5 million USD).
In contrast, imagine instead he gets rejection letter after rejection letter. After the very last rejection letter hits, now she suddenly drops her estimate (say... $500k USD), because he's not going to college and probably be doing something less profitable in the future.
In both cases, he's just a smart as he was the day before, he's just as talented as the day before, but some small piece of news dramatically affects the long-term earning potential, and thus how much she thinks this boy is worth.
Put in the perspective of this recent news, my expectation is that the release of Pokemon Go was the signal to the market that "not only is Nintendo willing to branch out and go into the huge mobile market, they know how to do it well because they made this amazingly popular game" (in other words, "this boy's going to Harvard, I should marry him!"). This market correction is, "Wait, it wasn't Nintendo, it was another affiliated company, they have only moderately changed their market position, I overreacted" (in other words, "oops, that letter was addressed to his brother, maybe I should rethink that marriage").
Some analysts have appeared to suggest that the 30% iTunes cut from in game purchases of poke-crap might net them $1B over the next couple years...
Of course that's a drop in the bucket for Apple, and everything may fizzle before poke-crap becomes popular, so you never know...
Layoffs increase profitability. It may not make sense to you, but there is some logic there, even if flawed. And since layoffs increase stock price, you should buy when you hear, to not be the last on the rising tide.
Learn to love Alaska
That you can't understand doesn't make it insane. It's logical and predictable. And yes, a bit crazy.
Learn to love Alaska
More than my previous games ever got for updates.
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it!
Layoffs increase profitability.
They increase short term profitability, only because operating costs go down. And of course, if you reduce force, you are less poised to execute so it's *only* short term since next quarter your deliverables will again be scaled to your workforce.
Even if you look at it like the company trimming the fat, the fact they are structured to allow the fat to develop in the first place is a bad thing. How many companies come back from a "reduction in force" to become profitable? Some do, most don't. It's usually a sign they are circling the drain trying to make themselves more attractive for a buyout.
And since layoffs increase stock price, you should buy when you hear, to not be the last on the rising tide.
And unless you are dealing with insider information, you will be the last to hear. The individual investor is the last to know. The sharks have already feasted.
Curious if you bought Cyanongen, Inc (or whatever it's called)?
This is the Keynesian beauty contest:
I have developed a truly marvelous proof of this comment, which this signature is too narrow to contain.
My Business Network
Curious if you bought Cyanongen, Inc (or whatever it's called)?
Nope. I have evaluated trading, and have found that it's not for me. I did it for a few months, and didn't like the results. Compulsive reading, trouble sleeping, and a return of 10% per month wasn't worth it. It's so much easier to get a good salaried job and put 10-20% of that in mutual funds. The stress is zero. And the returns match the market. It might delay the date at which I can retire completely, but I'll certainly live longer.
I have a friend making good returns playing the news. Wait for something to hit the news, then buy on bad news. never sell short, never use options. The market generally over-reacts. Stay in the market in something like Google or Apple. You need the money in the market because the market is constantly on an upward trend. Because individuals are last to get the news, the reaction at the time she gets the news is bad, the others are already selling out of the falling stock. Her orders to sell her "base stock" then buy the target stock are slow. By the time she gets a buy of the target stock, it's near the minimum, and the investors start buying back in. She gets a jump as people buy back in after the dip recovers. Beats the market consistently.
Learn to love Alaska
It gets worse when you realize all the judges are drunk.
Uhhhhh.... damn fine trolling. I applaud you.
So today we see that the company Yahoo is to be sold for less than 5 Billion, and we also see that Nintendo mentions it is only part owner of the creators of the Pokemon Go game and looses over 6 Billion in value.
That has got to be some salt in the wound of Yahoo I have to think. Your worth exactly less than part of a company that owns a small part of another company that made a popular video game. Internet Empire!
What makes you think the majority of people buying stocks are investors?
Because much of the outstanding shares are held by "investment" funds, thus, one would presume they are held by investors, or those who represent investors.
Learn to love Alaska
The flock of chickens runs one way one day, and the other the next day. Share dealers are mindless panicky animals, it takes very little to send them in a run for the next tasty titbit or the smallest noise or movement to send them running in the opposite direction..
Below the speed of light Special Relativity is one of the most accurate theories in physics - above the speed of light..
Ah! Investors! Could they possibly more clueless! There IS no unlimited growth, folks! Why not realize that, and figure out how to make an economy work by just making enough, not insisting that EVERY company must get BIGGER. Slow and steady is what lasts for thousands of years, not these frenzies that investors tie themselves up into knots over. Let's get real, folks: take care of the planet and our human needs FIRST, before investors and the large multi-national corporate greed that they spawn are allowed to trash our planet with their monolithic obsession over counting imaginary bits of promised value, instead of real life necessities, like air, water, soil and food for all our biological robots!
PlaynBass