Slashdot Mirror
Hurricane Irma Reaches 185 MPH, Trailing Only Allen As Strongest Atlantic Storm On Record (arstechnica.com)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: We are quickly running out of adjectives to describe the destructive potential of Hurricane Irma. As of 2pm ET on Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm's sustained winds to 185mph. This is near-record speed for a storm in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Such high, sustained winds tie Irma for the second-strongest storm on record in the Atlantic, along with Hurricane Wilma (2005), Hurricane Gilbert (1998), and the 1935 Florida Keys hurricane. Only Hurricane Allen, which reached 190 mph in 1980 before striking a relatively unpopulated area of Texas, reached a higher wind speed. Globally, the all-time record for hurricanes is held by Patricia, which reached a staggering 215 mph in the Pacific Ocean in 2015. Although sustained winds capture the most public attention, meteorologists generally measure the intensity of a storm based upon central pressures, which are considerably lower than sea-level pressure on Earth, 1,013 millibars. Typhoon Tip, in 1979, holds this record at 870 millibars. For now, at least, Irma has a relatively high central pressure of 927 millibars. Why the storm has such an odd wind-speed-pressure relationship isn't entirely clear. According to the National Hurricane Center, Irma is expected to bring catastrophic winds and potential storm surges to the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and the UK territory of Turks and Caicos this week. The Florida Keys could get hit by late Saturday night or Sunday.
...probably reached 200 MPH, but the instruments at Keesler AFB were blown away when Camille hit Biloxi, so they can't count "sustained wind speed."
Two storms of unusual magnitude, exceptional temperatures in parts of CA, but hey, climate change is worldwide con, right?
The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
Uh, that's not quite the way hurricanes work. They don't "slam into" something and stop. Caribbean islands are small compared to hurricanes!
They stop when they traverse a region where they are separated from the warm ocean, which is (in essence) their power source.
http://www.geoffreylandis.com
Understood. It was the cavalier attitude of let the pain be elsewhere that was striking.
I think that the prediction is actually for fewer storms, but greater magnitude..... ....
C. Model simulations of greenhouse warming influence on Atlantic hurricanes
Our regional model projects that Atlantic hurricane and tropical storms are substantially reduced in number, for the average 21st century climate change projected by current models, but have higher rainfall rates, particularly near the storm center."
I guess you will also have an explanation for the fact that there is less ice in the Arctic?
Summary: climate change denier detected.
The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
So, Cuba, a large mountainous island in the Caribbean, then.
Linux, you magnificent bastard, I read the fucking manual!
So far this season, we've had 9 named storms, 4 of which have become hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes. While we've still got 3 more months, but the end of September is the end of the peak, with a few storms in October, and almost none in November. Predictions at the start of the season were for about 14 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. So we're on track for a really boring, average year in terms of Atlantic hurricanes.
The only reason both storms seem unusual is because until Harvey, the U.S. hadn't been hit by a major hurricane since 2005. Contrary to the doom and gloom scenario painted by climate change alarmists after Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, who warned us that 2005 was going to become the new norm for Atlantic hurricanes. Sometimes outliers are nothing more than outliers.
Weather may not be climate, but the statistical behavior of weather certainly is.
Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
The related links section at the bottom of the page listed "Donald Trump Wins US Presidency".
Perhaps Slashdot's servers are on to something: giant sucking windbags, massive economic damages, and constant media attention. I understand how it could mistake the resemblement.
I personally attend conferences where climate change is debated, there is no squashing of debate that I have observed. In addition, there is a large number of independent measurements and data that are generally painting the same picture. Theorizing that it has all been manipulated for political gain is not to be taken seriously; if a political actor, even with colluding scientists, could do that it would be the mother of all hoodwinks, bigger than a fake moon landing, closer to our President is a robot and about the same as US govt collusion with alien life forms conspiracies. The orchestration of manipulations would be truly impressive.
Do not mistake continued scientific debate on climate observations for lack of consensus, there is quite good consensus among those that study the climate that it's changing. Roll back 100 years, or even now, and I'm sure scientists can be found that assert the Earth is flat, but in reality "all scientists agree", by consensus, the Earth is an oblate spheroid, aka round-ish. General consensus is as good as it will get in science.
You assert that the issue has traversed from science to politics and your reference is brietbart.com, one of the most political and myopic outlets of psuedo-information? Hilarious irony, 2 points.
Sorry, here is a link to the many, many people who claimed Global Warming would cause more hurricanes.
It's also funny how the GFDL used to claim global warming would neither make hurricanes more frequent nor more powerful...
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Who is doing that? We have the entire history of recorded meteorology to draw upon; it's quite easy to identify a single storm as a statistical outlier.
Generally any data point more than 1.5 IQRs above the third quartile is an outlier, and should be a rare bird. Of course you do on occasion run into a rare bird, but if you start seeing them on a regular basis that means either you are having implausibly strange luck or something underlying has changed.
Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
Just how many nukes do you think NK has, and why would you think the US would even need to use nukes if it came to attacking NK? The US's conventional weapons are more than adequate to knock down pretty much every major structure in NK.
I'd say the people who need to worry are the South Koreans and Japanese.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
I guess you will also have an explanation for the fact that there is less ice in the Arctic?
Well, it is an interglacial......
Even if there was no such thing as climate science slow warming would be a safe bet.
Human industrial activity within the past 300 years, especially with the most significant of it happening only within the past 100 years, is not responsible for the ice sheets retreating. This most recent cycle of retreating glaciation has been going on for over 10,000 years now, and started well before humans were engaging in any sort of notable industrial activity.
The more recent cycle of retreating glaciation started over 20,000 years ago and was largely over by the Holocene Climatic Optimum 5,000-9,000 years ago. Since then temperatures have generally been declining and glaciers growing ... until recently when anthropogenic global warming has taken over.
This is a really difficult forecast for a number of reasons.
Most major hurricanes don't just gradually intensify to a category 3 or 4, let alone well into category 5. They undergo periods of rapid intensification, due to bursts of thunderstorms in the core of the storm with lots of hot towers developing. Harvey did this before making landfall in Texas. Irma has done this twice. However, forecasting when this will happen is generally beyond the current limits of meteorology. The Ships statistical model only called for a gradual intensification of Irma. Some of the dynamical models like the GFS, HWRF, and HMON did predict rapid intensification. However, they have been predicting that it was imminent for days, without actually happening. It's obvious when rapid intensification is occurring because the hot towers show up in infrared satellite imagery. But there's very little skill in predicting rapid intensification before it starts. It's related somewhat to ocean heat content, but it doesn't explain when there's high ocean heat content but rapid intensification doesn't occur. Most major hurricanes do undergo rapid intensification at some point, and it's very hard to predict.
It's very likely that Irma will take a hard right turn in a few days and move north. There is very good agreement among the models that this will occur. However, it's not clear exactly when this will happen. If it happens sooner, Irma could miss Florida entirely and move toward the Carolinas. This isn't especially likely, but it's possible. It could turn north a bit later and move across the Florida Keys into South Florida. There are also model solutions that bring Irma into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This last situation also isn't especially likely, but is definitely possible. This doesn't include true outlier model forecasts, such as missing the United States entirely. Irma will also get close to Cuba, and moving over mountainous land for an extended period of time could wake Irma substantially. It just isn't clear yet whether this will happen or not. Hurricanes are steered by winds in the upper atmosphere around areas of high pressure (ridges) and low pressure (troughs). There are currently special upper air observations being taken every six hours in the central United States to help with forecasting Irma. There's an upper level trough over its area, that will interact with a ridge to the east, which has an impact on steering Irma. It's not clear whether these extra observations are helping with the forecasting of Irma, but it's definitely possible. Maybe these types of special observations well over a thousand miles from a storm have been taken before, but I don't recall seeing it. It's a very interesting idea for sure, to try to help improve forecasting of the storm's track in the 3-7 day time frame. Even though we know Irma will very likely take a hard turn to the north, relatively small differences in where this occurs will have a big difference on the impacts to the United States. And this is not at all unusual in hurricane forecasting.
Despite running tens of different computer models every six hours, it's really hard to predict where the storm is going to go. And yet the track forecasting has improved quite a bit over the past couple of decades, definitely outpacing intensity forecasts.
We'll all remember your instance that weather is climate the furst extreme cold snap that occurs this winter, which by your logic utterly disproves global warming...
I guess to you it's just an "inconvenient truth" how long it's been since we've even had any serious hurticanes hit the US.
Part of the reason why the hurricanes were absent was because of an unusual prolonged el Nino in the Pacific. The duration and severity of the typhoons in the Eastern Pacific during the el Nino years were also effected. But because typhoons do not directly effect North Americans by and large they are ignored. Now the situation is doing a wild swing in the other direction. Now we see the jet stream taking a long sweep to the north all summer pumping moisture eastward like a vacuum cleaner gone mad. All indications of radical changes in the earths climate. These changes are like the mood swings in bipolar individuals that are becoming suicidal.
The upside of the damage that is being done is that it might just shut down a fair portion of the biggest polluters and make gasoline and oil refining too expense to maintain thereby effectively reducing North American oil consumption. Houston and the gulf coast was a dumb place to put the majority of North America's key oil refining infrastructure the same as putting the Fukushima nuclear facility near the ocean in an earth quake hot spot was not exactly the best idea it was just the cheapest place to build because of the easy water and a handy heavy lift port access.
We are in for a very rough ride, this is just the beginning of hurricane season and a sustained change in corresponding ocean temperature patterns. My bet is that the majority of US centric ignorant Americans do not even know about the very recent North Pacific Blob and how radical changes in the ocean temp there are strongly effecting much more than just global weather patterns in ways never seen in history.
Right now large areas of Southern California are experiencing temps that are marginal for human survival. 45 degrees C over more than a few days is downright dangerous and the pattern of extreme summer drought on the West Coast will be followed with flooding in winter. Unfortunately we have brought this situation on ourselves and it will take huge human die off to effectively wake people up. Ocean temp change are contributing to the loss of a huge portion of the ocean's fisheries which is almost exclusively from our activities. The rapid loss of cheap protein from ocean sources will be the first phase of a planetary human die off. Be prepared for Friskies kitty vitals at 10 dollars a can boys! MEOW
This message was not sent from an iPhone because Peter Sellers really was a deviated prevert without a dime for the call
After Texas, Florida be like.. Hold my beer!
Hurricanes seem to come in two types. There are storms in which wind is the problem and storms in which rain is the real enemy and the winds quite tolerable. What happened to Houston was a wet storm that will cause massive property damage and very few deaths. Katrina was a wind storm that force the damns and levies to fail causing huge numbers of deaths. Irma is a wind storm and more so it is hell on a stick. If that storm strikes Miami I would expect almost all homes and buildings to be leveled. Winds of 185 mph. with gusts at 225 mph are sever enough to pretty much erase a city from the face of the Earth. there are about two million people in Miami. Evacuation is impossible. I am 110 miles north of Miami and a potential victim of this storm. God help Houston if this storm happens to strike them. Now I see on the radar that there are two more hurricanes trailing Irma. Now every right winger should shout at once "There is no global warming." That way when they open their pie hole I can shove a brick down their throats.
Are you willing to go on the PERMANENT record (thanks to the never forgetting Internet) so that people you care about (friends, spouses, children, grandchildren) know that you:
Denied the overwhelming scientific consensus on Climate Change?
Thought Obamacare was a disaster?
Refused to believe in Evolution? (This is my particular interest, I am a genetic engineer. Now that we can see Evolution happening right down to the molecular level, disputing it is laughable. Not to mention "Nothing in Biology makes sense without it").
Or for that matter:
Think the Federal Government was planning to take over Texas in 2015 (The "Jade" something or other exercise)?
Believe that there is a Pizza parlor in Washington D.C. that was a front for Democratic pedophiles?
Think that because Trump criticized Clinton on Goldman Sachs he wouldn't end up in their pocket?
I could go on but you get the picture. How many times do you have to be proven WRONG and been a victim of FAKE NEWS before you learn some critical thinking? Not only are you hurting the republic by voting for idiots (Bush) or frauds (Trump) but you are really hurting yourselves by believing that these leaders will help you (the working class) instead of just making them and their super rich friends richer, and by making stupid decisions like buying waterfront property in places like Texas and Florida.
Anyway, if thinking won't get you to reflect on your positions; maybe shame will. How about you tell the ones you care about the social media accounts like slashdot where you post things? Assuming you at least have the balls to not post Anonymously, tell them your username. Let them see what you really think. (I have, in fact I'm proud to show them).
Of course if Climate Change really is a hoax, and the Republicans come up with a much better replacement to Obamacare and God LITERALLY created the animals in one go (and forever fixed their attributes), then your friends and children and grandchildren will see you as the genius you are!
Why do so many of the same people who don't believe in climate change believe that illegal immigrants commit felonies at a greater rate than American citizens?
Aren't they on the side of science and reason?
You are welcome on my lawn.
There are none so dumb as the wilfully ignorant:
An epic heat wave that swept through the Bay Area on Friday smashed records -- including the all-time recorded high in San Francisco -- and promises more of the same on Saturday, with places like Livermore and Concord perhaps seeing the mercury rise even higher.
See that: "all-time recorded high in San Francisco"
So, no. Not the desert.
The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
The information in that link is confined to the Continental US, only 3% of the surface area of the Earth. You need to broaden your horizons.
before posting again, i suggest learning the definitions of the words you use.
The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.