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Dutch Government Confirms Plan To Ban New Petrol, Diesel Cars By 2030 (electrek.co)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Electrek: Today, the new Dutch government presented its detailed plan for the coming years and it includes making all new cars emission-free by 2030 -- virtually banning petrol- and diesel-powered cars in favor of battery-powered vehicles. The four coalition parties have been negotiating their plans since the election in March and now after over 200 days, they have finally released the plan they agreed upon. NL Times posted all the main points of the plan and in "transportation," it includes: By 2030 all cars in the Netherlands must be emission free. While some local publications are reporting "all cars," we are told that it would be for "all new cars" as it is the case for the countries with similar bans under consideration. The potential for the ban has been under consideration in the country since last year. The year 2025, like in Norway, has been mentioned, but they apparently decided for the less ambitious goal of 2030.
It won't matter....after 2030, all you'd be able to buy (brand new) is an electric car. Gasoline vehicles will become fewer and fewer as the years go by, It will probably be about another 50 to 60 years before they are fully gone.
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
Yesterday I saw a Kia Soul electric SUV here in northern England. When you even have companies like Kia selling them then I don't have any worries that there will be an issue by 2030.
I only please one person per day. Today is not your day. Tomorrow isn't looking good either. - Scott Adams
Good luck to both of us...
5 out of 6 people enjoy Russian Roulette & 6 out of 7 Dwarfs are not Happy
Picking winners and losers with plenty of consequences for the little people and no consequences for themselves.
I remember about ten years ago when biodiesel and ethanol were The Future! and there was talk of quotas on flex-fuel vehicles. Then it turned out that most (if not all) then-available blends of biodiesel congealed in cold temperatures and there was a well-publicized case of schoolbuses in the upper midwest being out of commission for days at a time during the winter months. Then there's the fact that E85 is hydrophilic and has worse mileage and emissions than gasoline in humid environments.
Today they're talking about making all IC engines illegal (no ethanol, no CNG, no nothing) because electric is the hot new thing. Then it's going to turn out that manufacturing and remanufacturing batteries en masse is a dirty and expensive business, that riding on a half ton of fuel and oxidizer packed closely together may work when it's inside 100k rich-man's toys that are built with no expense spared but probably won't work so well when it's lowest-bidder Chinese garbage. But by then they'll have moved on to mandating cars powered by smugness and self-satisfaction.
Dont forget where this legislation is coming from.
Car manufacturers love this idea.
Phase 1 is to move all new cars to electric - its actually quite a bit cheaper to make (engines/drive trains are horrible complex)
Phase 2 is then, of course, to ramp up 'pollution taxes' on the existing fleet of non-electrics, to 'transition' everyone to electric.
ie: a huge force to push people to purchase new vehicles.
It will be interested to see where they will build the obsolescence in to the new cars, so we need to buy a new one every 5-10 years.
I am guessing it will mostly be in the battery packs initially, with a lot of work going in to making sure they cannot be economically swapped,
and their lifespan is not too much to get in the way of profit.
Longer term I would expect new regulations to 'remove unsafe older electric vehicles' from the road for a bunch of made up reasons.
Just follow the money. Sad but true.
When there's not enough electric cars by 2030?
Who cares? By 2030, most of these politicians will be out of office, so dealing with the consequences will be someone else's problem.
Personally while i like the effort i think bans are a bad idea. Instead an increasing levy on vehicles that produce emmissions, with a direct subsidy to zero or ultra low emmission ones. Give people the choice and where possible they can start moving to electric.
Website Just Down For Me? Find out
I'm pretty sure that there won't be 2 billion automobiles in the Netherlands by 2030.
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
If I could buy a coal-fired car, I WOULD, just to piss off all the POMPOUS ASSHOLES in these electric car threads, that don't even own electric cars.
I'd gladly shovel that coal into the boiler myself with a ginormous shit eating grin on my face.
I hope you're able to make enough Lithium batteries for 2 billion cars a year.
Nonsense. There aren't 2 billion cars on earth, and even if there were they would not all need to be replaced in one year.
There are about 60 million cars made per year. With the expected shift to on-demand SDC taxis, that could decline dramatically.
Known lithium reserves are about 15 million tonnes. A car with a 300 km range uses about 10kg of lithium. So we have enough for 1.5 billion cars, or about enough to replace every gas car on earth.
Of course, new lithium reserves will be found, and as a fallback we can extract lithium from geologic brine, or even the oceans which contain about 230 billion tonnes (enough for 30 trillion cars).
Promise.
Do not worry, the self driving cars will deal with that pretty soon. No steering wheel.
I am looking forward to seeing the adjustments NOAA will need to make to keep their alarming rate. Anthropogenic signal FTW
Belgian, Luxembourgian, and German auto dealers on the Dutch border are acquiring more land to expand operations!
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
Is there going to be an initiative to build fast charging stations at some point that aren't proprietary?
Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
With the expected shift to on-demand SDC taxis,
Expected by who? (Besides morons and industry shills, obviously.)
They want to make all cars be "emission free" in less than 15 years? That's not happening. Electric cars are a tiny fraction of a percent of all cars now. There just is not enough supply right now to meet this demand, and increasing production is not easy. Legislating this doesn't change basic economics.
This is going to fail badly. This is a bunch of feel good legislation that will blow up in their faces.
I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
The free market has never decided. Petrol cars were mandated in many places and now the petrol industry makes the majority of the rules that they have to play by. They write their own legislation to pass along to their bought senators. You're acting like this is a new thing. It isn't. When the petrol car manufacturers funneled money to government officials to force the public to use their fuel pumps, I didn't hear you bitching. In other words, you didn't check yo self, so I wrecked yo self, shill.
Lets hear it for bro-trucks!
Have gnu, will travel.
The retarded leftists on this site all are convinced they can bend reality with willpower alone. Some of them will never figure out that they are wrong.
HBI's Law: Frequency of calling others Nazis is directly correlated with the likelihood of the accuser being Communist.
One made in Germany...
People have retrofit old carbureted cars to run on syngas driven by very rich burning wood fires. Very dirty and doable, so get off your ass.
You will have to figure out a way to routinely clean the intake and exhaust. Mostly intake. Keep it simple, you might be weekly soaking engine parts to keep it running.
The look on the pius drivers faces will make it worth it. When you jump out of the car at a red to feed the fire. Better still, hire a child to ride in the back as a stoker.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
... The link also says "The cabinet is banning criminal motorcycle gangs."
I'm glad the legal gangs with their electric scooters aren't being targeted.
(Just gave up my right to mod this article for this post)
Have you seen the price of whale oil lately? Of course markets decide, technology drives cost changes, some things can't compete at all.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
Beer warehouse, duh.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
+1 mod this up.
Harrison's Postulate - "For every action there is an equal and opposite criticism"
I hope their electric car initiative comes with a bunch of nook-you-lar plants to provide power, along with the attendant upgrade to the power distribution network. Transportation consumes between 3x and 10x your typical residential application. I need about 11kWh per day to run the homestead. I would need 35-50kWh for my car, and another 35-50kWh for the wife's car. YMMV, but the distribution network in our area can't handle a 2x increase in load, much less a 10x increase.
Well aren't you a friendly chap.
Here's how I see that panning out. The tax on the gas cars will raise the price. Whether it's a percentage or a flat rate per car the price will become invisible in time, people just won't notice it much like how people don't think much about a sales tax. The same will happen for the electric vehicles, any subsidy on their sale will become invisible to the buyer.
To further cover up the tax on gas cars the car makers will do one of two things. They could make cheaper cars, where the engine is a bit smaller, the seats and stereo not as nice, and so on. They could alternatively make it more expensive with more powerful engines, fancy electronics, and so on. With the more expensive car a flat fee looks small, and any percentage tax on such vehicles is made up for in a car that goes real fast.
Let's face it, electric cars are just more expensive. This would be even more apparent if comparing this to cars that were stripped down to the most basic of a car with just four wheels and a seat. If some leap in technology makes this not true then this falls apart, and people buy electric cars because they are cheap, not because they are "green". At that point the subsidy becomes just paying people to buy cars.
So, people looking for a cheap car will buy the gas car because as it is right now there is no electric car cheaper than a gas car. This cheap car is taxed to pay someone to buy an expensive electric car. These people have enough money to buy whatever car they want. They might buy the electric car because they want to be "green", or maybe because the subsidy means they can now afford leather seats with integrated heating and cooling instead of the cheaper cloth seats.
Congratulations, you have now created a wealth redistribution system that taxes the poor to pay rich people to buy luxury cars.
I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
The whole "electric cars are zero emission" is such bullshit. Al they do is move the tail pipe into someone else's country because electricity is still primarily generated by emission producing sources. We should concentrate on making zero emission power plants before we go for electric cars.
Like a Leprechaun?
To be fair Kia Souls are generally acknowledged as being very good cars. They look a little weird but then again so do most Slashdot commentators.
Slashdot: providing anti-social weirdos a soapbox, since 1997.
One made in Germany...
Or one made in Northern England. They may be designed in Japan, but Brits mackem.
If we suddenly stop using petrol, for every barrel of oil that is produced the part that would otherwise be refined into petrol would be potentially wasted. It can't be refined to something else, so we're potentially wasting a source of energy that is readily available to use.
The power needed to charge your electric car then has to be generated elsewhere. By what? Some countries have good renewables infrastructure, others use nuclear reactors. Either way, a sudden move to large numbers of electric cars then need to be accommodated for by the power grid. Is that actually more efficient than carrying the energy source with you, in a fuel tank?
It can be, but maybe not. Electricity produced always incurs a loss. When you burn something you always lose some energy via heat and noise, minus energy required for production etc. Line transmission also incurs a loss. Storage in your car battery incurs a loss. Conversion into motion incurs a loss.
And yet the oil to produce the fuel is still being produced, even if the fuel isn't being used.
All of the above, especially with engines like Mazda's upcoming compression ignition petrol engine which promises impressive efficiency gains, actually make this a really complicated picture. It may not be of any benefit at all depending on the country and how much they're willing to invest in the infrastructure to make it worthwhile.
I don't know. England has been known to make a few nice cars.
https://cdn.jamesedition.com/m...
You are welcome on my lawn.
The market will be swayed by new tax considerations.
Buy electric and its all cool. No new tax.
Dont buy electric and risk having to pay again and again for driving that luxury import.
Then one day its an electric pod, a bigger electric pod. An electric van or truck for people who can really prove they need that kind of transport for work.
The free market feels the full force of socialism.
Free to import a car or drive an antique on select private roads and tracks but a limited selection of new electric pod cars will be all most people can afford to drive.
The wider population does not get to enjoy the car, SUV, truck, van they want. The government moves the tax system to force most of the population to buy a new electric pod.
Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
Everyone it too stoned to bathe, let alone drive.
The term "car" will just be redefined in 2030 to mean whatever makes sense / actual reality.
"Your vehicle is over XX meters long / YY meters high this is not the car you are looking for"
Imagine everyone in the country getting home and plugging in there super fast charge cars ... the power drain will be huge!
You could argue "charge the car over night" - I think most people will want charge ASAP, just in case they want to go out again/emergencies.
I need to get to the hospital ! - Well we'll have to wait till the morning dear, the car is still hasnt started to charge yet.
Run out of power? No problem just walk to the nearest battery dispensing station and bring back a few 100kg of batteries - hmm.
" Instead an increasing levy on vehicles that produce emmissions"
I just bought a "new" car. It was $11000, for a 2011 model year with 40k on it in nearly pristine condition, and a mid-level trim level (so it has a few options and upgrades, air, heated seats, etc...)
How much are you going to subsidize a new electric car to make it price competitive to that?
People will flock to electric when it's cheaper. But trying to force it with tax and subsidy... just amounts to, as the other poster said, taking money from the poor to help the wealthy buy new cars, with all kinds of fun unintended consequences.
The poor family living in a rented apartment parking on the street -- they have to buy a fuel car because they can't reliably plug in at night. Meanwhile the rich suburban folks with 2 car garage buy themselves new subsidized electric vehicle because they can plug it in their garage every night. Nice.
And when the power to gas pumps stop working, everything grinds to a halt as well.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
Fuck you and fuck your stupid "fee" market in your stupid n1ggerstan.
Agree a blanket ban seems extreme and could balance with other incentives or fees. The silver lining is a small country piloting the concept and they might adjust for special cases if sensible. The Dutch very proactive in agriculture and environmental sustainability. For instance, emphasis on bicycle transport. First, reduce heavy transport energy consumption with conservation. Electric bicycles adoption increasing encouraging. I tried one but preferred to pedal a lighter load, regular bike, and not bother with the charging. Gogoro concept interesting.
Youâ(TM)re brave as FUCK dude! And so fucking right - all of us different people with different opinions should STAMP THEM OUT for living different and having a different opinion from us!
There is no such thing as a pollution free car. Even if it's a totally electric car. generating the electricity to charge it causes pollution. While its true that trying to control that pollution at a single point will be more efficient, be aware that there will still be a massive amount of pollution to deal with.
Ohh yes there will be issues you just don't see them. I have worked with the Dutch before, they are a bid odd in the come off as only trusting other Dutch people, you are not Dutch, it feels very much like they do not trust you and never will. Often that lack of trust is indicative of some one that should not be trusted, they see themselves in everyone else. In this case, you people miss it because you do not live in a country surrounded by other countries with open borders. So why is all that important because the first country that bans fossil fuellers get a major economic jump on all surrounding countries. That economic boost, their citizens being able to dump fossil fuel vehicles on surrounding countries, whilst those values are still high in the surrounding countries rather than crashing, that crash defined by how much government are willing to subsidise conversion costs from infernal combustion engines to battery electric. There is a huge economic advantage in going first, you get to save your citizens major infernal combustion engine losses. Eastern European countries likely to get the burden for the greatest losses bound around corruption ie to dump the used vehicles from the rest of the EU into them, when they collapse to a net negative value, a rubbish burden. Of course from Eastern Europe to Africa but transport costs tend to kill that return.
Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
EVs get 3-4 miles/kWh. Learn math.
"I don't know. England has been known to make a few nice cars."
Yes, nice cars, yes.
Reliable cars, on the other hand...
"Who cares? By 2030, most of these politicians will be out of office, so dealing with the consequences will be someone else's problem."
Not only they won't be there to deal with consequences; they won't be there to enforce their rulings either.
In a democracy, any "ruling" that goes beyond the election cycle (much more if it's meant to *start* beyond the election cycle) is basically nothing more than words in the wind.
That's why God made reliable mechanics.
You are welcome on my lawn.
In Netherlands the number of cars per capita is the lowest in highly developed countries. The public transport is very good (easy to do in a country with such a big population density) and bikes are everywhere. People that commute by trains will often have two bikes - one at each station. In Amsterdam it is simply not practical to have a car. You need a parking permit to park it in front of your house (and parking permits are a sparse good), parking in the city center is 5EUR/hour. That being said, I am curious what they are going to do to (Royal Dutch) Shell.
I would be impressed if they banned bikes.
No, the current subsidies help to get relatively rich people to buy electric cars, making their sale profitable to the electric car manufacturers whole now can go through the cycle of improving performance and reducing production cost (as is usual with any new product). In a few years, the rich people will sell their car and affordable second hand electric cars are available then for less affluent people. We are currently in the stage where future second hand cars are bought to be available in a few years. In effect, the relatively rich people are now subsidizing the future second hand market for electrical cars.
Bert
I wouldn't pick it over most other cars of that size, though, even if it weren't hideous.
the current subsidies help to get relatively rich people to buy electric cars
And where is the subsidy money actually coming from?
In effect, the relatively rich people are now subsidizing the future second hand market for electrical cars.
Sure...they're just not doing it with their own money.
When I buy a GTX 1080 I'm subisizing the development of future graphics cards, and I'm dumping my GTX980 onto the secondary market to boot. But the government isn't giving me a handout to do it, so that system works.
With electric vehicles, the 'poorer' are helping paying for the 'richer' to buy new cars. The idea that its for their own good long term since it'll put more electric used vehicles into the queue is demented.
Coal Gas
To be fair. Self driving taxis are something i would look forward to. Uber at its best. Especially if they could be so cheap that you could take them to work every day. Especially in Europe with its cozy city's with small streets this might significantly reduce car ownership in the city and clean up the streets. Its also better for the environment in other ways. As more people could use the same car during a day. Instead of standing by idle in front of the house or the office. Lower taxi prices during non-rush hours would also give organisations incentives to allow their workers to work at variable hours. ( lower travel cost ) on top of being a further optimization to car usage. We all know this is the future. Its just a matter of time for the technology to catch up.
This is a plan from a centre-right government...
By 2030 the vast majority of the population will be unemployed due to automation and living in complete destitution. They will have no money or resources to buy a car that would get them... Where? Where should they go? There won't be jobs for them, no better living conditions. We are entering a temporary phase of mass nomadism forced by economics, followed by a permanent state of unescapable poverty.
ln a number of large cities having a car is expensive due to garaging costs, but people accept it due to convenience. If other modes of transport arise that can match most or all of the convenience at lower cost then you would expect a proportion of current car owners to swap.
Maybe in the USA where it is apparently the norm to repeal decisions of the previous government purely out of spite, but in Europe legislation can easily survive for centuries.
"It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
is fucking up the country in any way it possibly can, so no surprise there. However, the next government will do things completely different, and so on..
Calling a 6-7 year-old car a "new car" is funny. You can get a 6-7 year-old Leaf with 40k on it in pristine condition for a lot cheaper than that. And then drive it for a lot cheaper. And pay less on maintenance. And because it's a cheaper car, pay less on insurance.
"If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
And when the power to gas pumps stop working, everything grinds to a halt as well.
What a brain-damaged comment: You don't need an electric pump to pour petrol into the car, nor to get it out the storage tank. Any fuel station located in a slightly elevated position can siphon out the last drop of fuel from the storage tank using only gravity.
Besides, I may not even need it due to the range - I can go a month on a full tank. If power is gone for a month we have bigger problems than getting to work.
I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
Meanwhile, here's what living through natural disasters is actually like with EVs.
"If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
I think the real world will be different. These cars will never be clean, be full of graffiti and other stuff like baby poo, animal shit and germs, unless they are cleaned after every trip, which makes them much more expensive.
-- Cheers!
Thanks for dismissing all the people in my country based on a few bad experiences with some of them.
About the cars: that happens now already and will not change much during the transition to electric. I don't think fossil fuels will be banned soon. many other things than cars use them.
-- Cheers!
I take heavy metal pollution over CO2 any day!
Isn't it what they already all do in the Netherlands ? It's bicycle country there
Reading about every country's new plans to ban gas/diesel cars by some totally arbitrary date in the future makes me weep thinking of all the lawyer time that is no doubt going into drafting the legislation, all the politicians time going into debating and discussing with it, etc. This is money going down the sink that is not helping a problem that we need to solve now. And we can!@#
If they're going to put their fingers on the scales, why not just stop doing all this shit and put every dollar you'd spend on this kind of legislation and effort into better incentives for electric cars? Build more charging points in the cities and car parks. Tax incentives for the whole supply chain.
You could get a gassifier (like this, although this model is currently out of stock) and feed that to your car. A skilled mechanic shouldn't have too much trouble with it. If you wanted to show off that you were burning coal, you could have a window installed on the stainless hopper.
Do be careful, though - a large portion of the mass of coal gas is carbon monoxide; that's one of the key things that's combusting when you burn it. The combustion plus your cat shouldn't make the exhaust unusually problematic, but because of the risk of leaks, do install a detector.
Now, if you don't want to run on coal gas, but rather coal directly, that's a much bigger project. You'd need an external combustion engine, like a steam engine. But coal gas should be a relatively straightforward retrofit for a pickup truck.
"If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
1) Look at high-adoption-rate countries, like Norway. Public parking becomes EV charging on the large scale. This is done via a combination of retrofits of existing parking, and requirements on all new parking construction.
2) Superchargers. Indeed, the newest variety of Supercharger is designed specifically for apartment dwellers; they're positioning them at popular shopping areas, so that your car can charge while you shop. The same thing can apply to CHAdeMO and CCS, but it requires longer (or more frequent) shopping trips as they're not as high power.
3) Workplace charging. Again, the higher the EV adoption rate, the more often workplaces provide charging. It's a relatively cheap incentive that employees who drive EVs really appreciate.
"If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
How could I run an electric car? It would be simply impossible. The only options would be:
Ah yes, clearly there are only two options. They couldn't implement PRT, you couldn't use an automated taxi...
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
These cars will never be clean, be full of graffiti and other stuff like baby poo, animal shit and germs, unless they are cleaned after every trip, which makes them much more expensive.
If that is a real concern, then automakers will make low-end AVs for plebes that are trivial to clean, and they will be cleaned more often. City buses are often designed in this way, and while they are nasty and uncomfortable places to be, you'll be able to pay just a bit more to ride in something with upholstery.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Ah yes, clearly there are only two options. They couldn't implement PRT, you couldn't use an automated taxi...
So, your answer is that I have 2 alternatives... neither of which actually exist.
So you don't have an answer at all then.
You can get a 6-7 year-old Leaf with 40k on it in pristine condition for a lot cheaper than that.
But then you have to be in a Leaf. He said he got something with a nice interior, and if that was a requirement, then a Leaf was not in the running. Also, an old EV without a transferable lifetime battery warranty is going to have significant additional costs at some point. An ICE-based vehicle might, if something goes badly wrong.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
If I were running my car on wood gas, I'd want to use wood pellets as fuel. You can buy sacks of them at any Wal-Mart or hardware store, and they lend themselves to self-feeding mechanisms.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
So, your answer is that I have 2 alternatives... neither of which actually exist.
Many things will soon exist which do not exist now. This change won't be implemented overnight, either, so there's time to implement something different. Instead of crying about how a change which may not actually even come is going to ruin your life tomorrow, why not do something about promoting positive change today so that it can happen later?
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
1) I almost never use public parking. I get our weekly groceries delivered, and for the (very rare) times that I need to go into town for clothes/shoes/etc I will never use the car, as parking is hard to find and ridiculously expensive. And I hate shops, BTW, so I spend as little time there as I can.
2) Same as 1.
3) Possible. Except for all the offices and factories that are already short of parking spaces, forcing workers to park on the street of an industrial estate (this is very, very common).
I think that will indeed happen but then driving in one of those will still not be a very pleasant experience. So I am not convinced cars that can be used by everyone will become as popular as some people would like.
-- Cheers!
Thanks for conceding that my point.
Leaf warranties are transferable (although they're not "nice" interiors, to be fair ;) ) For a nice interior on the used market, something like the BMW i3. Eventually there will be Model 3s on the used market, but that day is not today. Also, Teslas tend to depreciate rather slowly compared to other EVs.
"If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
I'm confused. You don't have private parking and you don't use public parking. Where do you park your car, in the air?
Unless you have your groceries shipped to you, you at least have to do that. How often do you go to the grocery store and how long do you spend there?
Public or private? Again, if public, the city has the incentive to have charging there when penetration is high. If private, the owner has the incentive to have charging there when penetration is high. This isn't theoretical, we see it play out in the real world in places like Norway.
"If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
So I am not convinced cars that can be used by everyone will become as popular as some people would like.
The cars that can be used by everyone cheaply will be that. But there will also be cars that can be used by anyone with a couple of dollars to rub together, and they will be nicer, and people will use them. And so on up the chain, until you finally reach people who will still be able to afford to own their own AVs in the future.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
Congratulations, you have now created a wealth redistribution system that taxes the poor to pay rich people to buy luxury cars.
You do understand that's the system that we have now, right? Electric cars - which are expensive toys for the upper middle class and upper classes - are highly subsidized in every way, including a direct rebate to buyers that comes out of tax revenue. So poor people are paying taxes that goes directly in the pocket of wealthier people.
Do you have ESP?
That's what they told us in the 70's too. But in the 80's there were no electric cars left anymore. The last people driving around in electric cars had to buy non electric when their car stopped working. And now, what would be the reason that electric car will succeed? In the 70's it was the oil that was too expensive and even unavailable. The deal they made with the oil producing countries was to encourage the islamization of Europe in exchange for oil. Now many cities have become an islamic hellhole and there haven't been as many cars as today.
By 2030 most large cities in the Netherlands will be islamic cities anyway. Islam is counter scientific. They don't care about the environment nor about women or gay rights. The biggest concern of the Dutch people, the islamization, is neglected. Hence they choose a new enemy we should be all afraid for. "global warming", "the evil white patriarchy", "a growing number of old people", are just created to divert the attention away from the problems many people face every single day over and over again.
upfront, more expensive.
but total cost of ownership over the life of the vehicle? same or less.
and subsidies can help poor purchasers too, not just wealthy.
your hypothetical falls apart.
The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
ignorant racist posts on an article about EVs... amazing...
"The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
judging by your post, it looks like the problem resides with you and not the Dutch. the articles says "Today, the new Dutch government presented its detailed plan for the coming years and it includes making all new cars emission-free by 2030" - the clue is "all new cars", its not banning existing fossil burners on that date
"The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
I'm confused. You don't have private parking and you don't use public parking. Where do you park your car, in the air?
There might be a vocabulary mis-match here. By "public parking" I mean purpose-designed buildings/spaces where tens/hundreds of vehicles can be parked. I don't include "parked on a residential street" as public parking.
How often do you go to the grocery store and how long do you spend there?
Just shopping for fresh foods (meat, lettuce, etc...) so only a few minutes each time.
Public or private? Again, if public, the city has the incentive to have charging there when penetration is high. If private, the owner has the incentive to have charging there when penetration is high. This isn't theoretical, we see it play out in the real world in places like Norway.
Not sure that I understand? My point was that very often there is insufficient parking spaces for staff. So if you go for 100% EV you'd have to force companies to build more parking spaces. Could be done, but it will mean more concreting over of green spaces.
you could buy a steam train or stream roller.....
"The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
don't forget you'll need to take account of the subsidies paid to the fossil fuel industry too because the poor are also paying taxes into the pockets of wealthier people when they buy gas and coal and they've been doing that a lot longer than any renewable subsidy.
"The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
You do understand that's the system that we have now, right?
Yes. It's a bad idea here and now, and it will be a bad idea in the future in other nations.
I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
they should remove all the fossil fuel subsidies too and make you pay the true price of gas/oil/coal etc. subsidies are normally given to get a tech off the ground so i can't understand that after a century of improving fossil fuel performance that the fossil fuel industry still gets subsidies.
"The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
Could you give an example of a subsidy for the fossil fuel industry?
Private = Owned by private citizens
Public = Owned "the public" (city, federal government, etc)
It has nothing to do with how parking is arranged. Secondly, why would you assume that only on-street parking would get chargers but not parking garages? In Norway there are entire parking garages dedicated specifically to EVs. And this is just the start - while now 1/3rd of all new vehicle sales in Norway are EVs, due to the lag, they're still only a relatively small fraction of total vehicles on the road. The higher the penetration = the more EV parking. And they're not just slow charging garages - countries starting to move into fast charging garages as well.
That didn't answer the question. 1) What is your total average time, in minutes (not just "few") between when you park, and when you get back to your car; and 2) How often do you go to the store?
(not that I actually believe that you only spend "a few minutes" on a grocery store trip and that covers all your groceries)
It takes no more parking spaces. It takes the conversion of parking spaces. It means that parking spaces have plugs, nothing else.
At high penetrations, this change is inherently incentivized for the exact same reason that having parking at all is inherently incentivized.
"If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
Have you looked at the prices of 2011 model Leafs? They are a lot, lot less than $11,000 for a top spec one.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
that'll be fun.....
"The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
Private = Owned by private citizens Public = Owned "the public" (city, federal government, etc) It has nothing to do with how parking is arranged.
Your use of the word 'federal' suggest to me that you are in the USA and speak American. I'm British, my vocabulary is different to yours. You can't argue that you're "right", because we're speaking slightly different languages, and words mean different things to us. That's why I suggested "There might be a vocabulary mis-match here".
It takes no more parking spaces. It takes the conversion of parking spaces. It means that parking spaces have plugs, nothing else.
I have worked on industrial estates with cars parked everywhere: in the official car parks, on the street, on grass verges, etc... You cannot equip a grass verge with an electric plug. Hence my comment that a lot will have to change (more concreting of land).
I had a college roommate that bought a car for something like $500. Insurance and license was next to nothing because it was a cheap tin box on wheels. Being a little 4 cylinder engine that he just drove around town, and once in a while on a longer trip to visit family, the fuel cost very little. You are not going to find an electric car with a total cost of ownership that low for a long time.
Cheap cars are old cars and there are not enough old electric cars that the poor are going to see an electric car with a lower total cost of ownership than a gasoline burner. Maybe you can find a used electric car for $10,000. I know I can go to any dealer and find a used car for less than $3000. $10,000 - $3000 = $7000 for operating costs. $7000 / $3 per gallon at 30 miles per gallon means 70,000 miles of driving. If it cost nothing to run the electric that's a lot of miles someone would have to drive before the cost of ownership evens out.
I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
as all lampposts get converted to LED they will also become car charge points and at some point stand alone chargers will appear like parking meters along residential roads.
"The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
Actually, I'm in Iceland, but not like it matters. And no, "public" does not in any way, shape, or form mean "not a parking garage". The word "public" has a very specific meaning. Just like the word private does. They're antonyms.
Yes you most certainly can. It's actually easier to install charging stations in grass than concrete. You run a trenching tool down the grass, lay down conduit, fill in the trench, and install the posts. And hey, if you don't want the posts for aesthetic reasons? No problem.
Look, the fact that you're arguing that something "can't be done" where there are places that it already is abundantly done should clue you in to the fact that you're wrong.
"If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
Most lamp posts are not anywhere neare a parking spot.
In the Netherlands governments sit for 4 years. This is not a law, just a statement of 'intent'. A lot can happen in 13 years.
You sound like you don't actually use a car that much. Just to work and back. So a 200-300 mile range car would probably go for days between you needing to recharge it. And you're looking at about 30-45 minutes for an 80% charge at a supercharger.
And that's today. By 2025 or 2030 or 2040 when the bans come in in various countries, ranges will have gone up and charge times for a given distance down.
They are starting to put superchargers in petrol stations now, along with cafe areas whilst you wait that half an hour.
Another option for people like you will be cars as a service. Order a car, just like an Uber, and it'll drive you to work. Only no driver needed as it'll be fully autonomous. Parking and charging are not your problem.
Then again, if you own your own autonomous car, then you could tell it to go to a public charger and charge itself without your needing to go with it.
He didn't concede anything. He's absolutely right that there are many transportation options, and the ones you use in 13 years time will differ from now.
The most obvious is that you buy an electric car, and simply charge it up at a public charger. But there are several more.
but total cost of ownership over the life of the vehicle? same or less.
I have a friend with a Nissan Leaf who was an early adopter.
His wife has a Honda Accord.
His upfront cost to buy the car was about the same, and his cost to operate it are much, much lower.
Fuel costs? Something like $200 per year.
Maintenance / parts? Nada. Although he may need tires soon.
Remember that they need to be called by an app, so the car company knows who's in them, and there will be cameras. If the person after you complains about a problem, they look at the previous journey(s), catch the culprit and charge them for the clean or ban them.
Meanwhile the person that complains can wait for another car.
Taxis work, even without the facility for banning people. There's no reason these couldn't work with that ability.
A law that is being passed now, will be successful... thanks to several technologies that do not exist yet, even in prototype form.
I admire and respect your sunny optimism.
A future government could repeal it or change the data, but there's no reason to suppose they would. This change to EVs is going to happen, and 2030 is not an unrealistic date for cutting off the obsolete ICE car models.
No. A levy is simply enforcing something on the poor, whilst allowing the rich to do what they like. People need to stop buying ICE cars and that includes the wealthy.
Again, we have a communication issue: I am speaking in British English, while I think that you are using American English: the fact that you shout "no, you're wrong"... and quote dictionary.com back at me, tells me that you still don't understand that American English is not the same as British English.
I think the real world will be different. These cars will never be clean, be full of graffiti and other stuff like baby poo, animal shit and germs, unless they are cleaned after every trip, which makes them much more expensive.
The nice clean ones will be a little more expensive than most people can comfortably afford, like business class is today.
I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
Brick machines are tres on topic.
I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
"I don't know. England has been known to make a few nice cars."
Yes, nice cars, yes.
Reliable cars, on the other hand...
LOTUS : Lots Of Trouble, Usually Serious.
I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
Would you prefer the Oxford English Dictionary then?
public ADJECTIVE
1 Of or concerning the people as a whole.
‘public concern’
‘public affairs’
1.1 Open to or shared by all the people of an area or country.
‘a public library’
1.2 Of or involved in the affairs of the community, especially in government or entertainment.
‘he was forced to withdraw from public life’
‘a public figure’
2Done, perceived, or existing in open view.
‘he wanted a public apology in the Wall Street Journal’
‘we should talk somewhere less public’
3Of or provided by the state rather than an independent, commercial company.
‘public spending’
‘public services’
4British Of, for, or acting for a university.
‘public examination results’
Public and private are antonyms.
Or if you want specifically the term "public parking", your countrymen seem to disagree (just some quick Googling)
Maybe it's a London thing to use "public" to mean "not public"?
"If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
And why do they make faster graphics cards? Because of demand making things profitable. Why do they make electric cars, because of demand making things profitable. Who demands cleaner air.....crickets..... Force car makers to clean up the air by helping demand for electric cars, win win, win.
So can you cook a chuck roast at the same time?
I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
I almost never use public parking. I get our weekly groceries delivered, and for the (very rare) times that I need to go into town for clothes/shoes/etc I will never use the car, as parking is hard to find and ridiculously expensive. And I hate shops, BTW, so I spend as little time there as I can.
Why does an admitted shut-in need a car?
I don't respond to AC's.
Bullshit.There are more than 2 options that exist now. I went through some with you already.
So we are replacing 'known oil reserves' with 'Known lithium reserves' now.
What happens after we reach 'peak battery production'? They guy asking about batteries for 2 billion cars per year was emotionally modded to oblivion but it's a very valid question.
Charging a battery may be renewable, but those batteries need to be replaced after a certain life-cycle as well.
Worldwide Hoomans produce more than 60 million cars. There's presently about 1.05 billion cards on the roads today and increasing. 2 Billion for new cars, and spare parts / replacements isn't too off the mark.
When we run out of Lithium, what will we turn to next?
~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.
Probably whatever batteries are made from in 30 years.
I strongly suspect we won't turn to things that aren't used to make batteries.
Inescapable poverty is an immediate precursor to revolution. So either everyone is killed off by the government super-robots, or the post-revolution government distributed the results of automation's increased productivity to everyone (especially the people who keep them in power).
The latter is communism. Given massive abundance from hyper-automation, it might even kind of work. But unless it's combined with some kind of incentive to create new consumer goods, consumer goods will cease to advance. Not the end of the world, but unfortunate.
Hopefully there's enough leftover productivity to let smart people continue working on spaceships and vaccines. Might have to pay the vaccine guys in hookers. And pay the hookers in drugs.
I just bought a "new" car. It was $11000, for a 2011 model year with 40k on it in nearly pristine condition, and a mid-level trim level (so it has a few options and upgrades, air, heated seats, etc...)
How much are you going to subsidize a new electric car to make it price competitive to that?
Why are you comparing a used ICE car against a new electric car? You are not in the market for a new ICE car, then you're not in the market for a new electric car. However, compare the 6 year old ICE car against a used six year old electric car. Sure, people who only buy used cars will be buying ICEs for longer as it takes time for the used market to get older EVs in the supply chain. IF EVs take off, then the poor will probably be still driving older clunky ICEs for quite some time just as they drive older, clunky, less expensive ICE cars now. Eventually, if driving an ICE car starts to signify you are either a collector or poor, EVs will have won.
Maybe it's a London thing to use "public" to mean "not public"?
Technically yes, that IS found in London.
But you're wasting your time arguing over details, the real story is that trickyb is already ill-served by the existing situation regarding parking.
Have you looked at the prices of 2011 model Leafs?
Sorry, pricing and location is CAD.
In Canada, where I live, the absolute cheapest on autotrader.ca within 100 miles is $13,600, with the average price being closer to 16,000. It also has twice the mileage on it, has such options as "recycled cloth seats", "unique shifting knob" and "push button start" and is relatively beat up compared to the car i bought.
As a 2011/2012 model it has the less heat resistant battery pack which loses capacity faster, and has older chemistry. Couple the loss of capacity due to age and efficiency due to wear and tear the car has about 60 km range. (40mi)
And the battery pack is out of warranty.
Thanks... but no thanks. This car likely can't go much more than half way from Vancouver to Whistler.
Yep, sure could. There's plenty of waste heat involved in gasification :)
Are you picturing the ultimate tailgating truck? ;)
Actually, if you ran a company focused on providing big slow roasters for festivals, that would probably be a very environmentally friendly way to travel. And not just because wood pellets are usually made out of waste. The engine will run very efficiently on wood gas (thorough combustion), and almost all energy not ending up in the gases will end up as waste heat for your grill, which you'd be using. You'd need a compressor and storage tanks, however, and it'd get more complicated because of that.
If you really wanted to "go green" (I know, we're now totally on the opposite tack vs. what the AC wanted ;) ), you could only partially oxidize the wood pellets. You'd still get wood gas and waste heat, but a different gas mixture - larger hydrogen, methane and water fractions, lower CO and CO2 fractions. Most of the carbon would remain as biochar, which can be added to enrich poor soils and (probably, although it's still under study) sequester most of the carbon.
"If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
Economists. Self-Driving Cars are both likely to end up mandated by law (due to less chance of accidents, especially with car-to-car networking) and far too expensive to individually own (by any other than the rich). The obvious solution is ridesharing services, which maintain fleets at a low monthly subscription, and only enough to cover the people in their subscription. Want to go somewhere? Order a car online. Want to move? Order a truck online. With self-driving technology, it comes, picks up you and your stuff, takes you to whatever GPS location you want to go,
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
Inescapable poverty is an immediate precursor to revolution.
Do you have any Somalian subscribers to your newsletter?
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
I agree with most of your comment - but I don't think there will be a shift to SDC taxis in most countries.
Lets look at all of interests of the relevant actors:
* The car companies want to sell sell sell, and they obviously will make much more money with selling individual private cars to each citizen.
* Most consumers are used to a car and can afford it. A private car is likely to have an availability advantage over a Taxi, and I'm sure the car companies will come up with some customization options to make it even more attractive (An iCar?).
* Governments make so much money from taxes on cars and want to increase consumption to increase GDP, so they have an interest in a private car model. Sure, they do want to reduce congestion, but I think that will at most translate to preferring public transport in city centres to the point of banning private cars from there, not a general ban/tax on private cars.
Not so ignorant perhaps. But I am astounded by his promotion of neanderthal genes,
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
Electric cars aren't emission-free.
Electric cars are just transfer of emissions.
Although it would be nice to allow the market (aka the people) to make that decision. If electric cars really become all that, attract buyers without taxpayer funded incentives (or disincentives on their competition). If/when sales of ICE vehicles drop enough fewer are made, price goes up, eventually they become boutique options that few people need or probably want, and whose environmental impact is minimal due to those reduced numbers. Then let them go without forcing decisions down the buyers' throats.
But that doesn't give the .gov and its denizens the power they feel they deserve. Can't trust those damn taxpayers to make proper decisions after all.
Why are you comparing a used ICE car against a new electric car?
a) partly because a 6 year old electric car is risky. You are buying old "leading edge technology" and that's never a good value proposition. Every value buyer knows you don't want to buy 'version 1.0' of anything because it'll take a few iterations to work the early kinks out. A 2011 electric car is pretty much a version 1.0 electric car.
b) partly because there are so few of them. 10 years from now, 20 years from now, things WILL be different. But right now there aren't a lot to choose from.
c) partly because they don't age particularly well. The battery tech is still immature and a 5-6 year old battery pack is generally out of warranty and down a big chunk of capacity, and an even bigger chunk of effective range. I've found numerous sources that cite their 2011 LEAF in 2017 is now good for under 50 miles (1/2 the original 100), one reported theirs was down to 28.
However, compare the 6 year old ICE car against a used six year old electric car.
I just looked at a 6 year old LEAF in response to another reply. Locally its asking $13500 (CAD) (that was the lowest priced one within 100 km); it has twice the odometer of the car i purchased. It's got 'recycled cloth seats' and 'push button start' as "features"... so not exactly optioned out.
And doing the math on the battery aging, and given that its a 2011/2012 model so older chemistry, lower heat resistant battery etc. The battery is out of warranty. At this point it will have a 40-50 mile range or so if you are lucky. That's enough for some people, but that's not enough for me, and that's not enough for most people.
Its also pretty small for a family car, and subjectively my wife thinks its ugly, but those are beside the point... sort of.
IF EVs take off, then the poor will probably be still driving older clunky ICEs for quite some time just as they drive older, clunky, less expensive ICE cars now
The point is taking money from them to subsidize wealthier people to buy electrics is demented.
Eventually, if driving an ICE car starts to signify you are either a collector or poor, EVs will have won.
No. EVs will have won when the poor are driving them, because that will mean they are more affordable and the best value proposition.
I'm pretty sure that there won't be 2 billion automobiles in the Netherlands by 2030.
Look, you don't know what a car-crazy culture the Netherlands are. Every man, woman, and child thinks it's normal to have 1175 cars in their garage.
With the expected shift to on-demand SDC taxis,
Expected by who? (Besides morons and industry shills, obviously.)
Expected by most people who live in the cities and hate the fuss of a car when you don't have a garage, and gas and parking are expensive and hard to find wherever you go. I don't live in a metropolis, but if I did and I wanted to travel from one side of the city to the other, an instance SDC would be far more preferable to a regular car.
I don't know why prices are so silly in Canada. In the UK £5k for a Leaf is not uncommon. Who cares if the battery is out of warranty, they are good for at least 200k miles anyway. Typical Leaf of that age with say 100k on the clock would be looking at around 90% capacity remaining, so maybe 80 miles for the old 24kWh pack.
Having said that my old 2 year old one, again top spec, sold for about $15k CAD with 16k miles on it and no noticeable battery degradation.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
Taxis work, even without the facility for banning people.
Because there's a cab driver RIGHT THERE looking at you. Even if it was someone miles away looking at you through a camera, behavior would change because the driver is not physically present at the car.
I know a guy who was an early Tesla buyer sold it and went back to gasoline. He missed the handling of a lighter internal combustion engined car.
Sure. But like I said, they'd only get to do it once.
I drive an electric car quite often on business (Nissan Leaf) and when I next come to buy a car I am sure it will be an all electric one, but my needs are mainstream. What about those with more specialist requirements?
My neighbour has a caravan. How much range would he get with that on the back? What about farmers using landrovers and similar to haul trailers full of hay out to their animals?
Now, electric vehicles will certainly improve between now and 2030, but how can governments know that they will improve enough to cover these less common use cases (yes, I know that the actual answer is "They don't know and they don't care").
Typical Leaf of that age with say 100k on the clock would be looking at around 90% capacity remaining,
Based on what?
http://www.carswithcords.net/2...
Reading around I am seeing *lots* of people reporting sub 50 mile ranges on their 2011 LEAFs in 2017.
If I could buy a coal-fired car, I WOULD, just to piss off all the POMPOUS ASSHOLES in these electric car threads, that don't even own electric cars.
I'd gladly shovel that coal into the boiler myself with a ginormous shit eating grin on my face.
I've never understood the "I'll cut off my nose to spite my face" attitude. It's just so damned weird.
But then you have to be in a Leaf. He said he got something with a nice interior, and if that was a requirement, then a Leaf was not in the running.
Leafs are ok, but they're certainly not luxury. I certainly wouldn't BUY a Leaf though -- those are lease vehicles. That's why I leased one, because the battery technology was changing too rapidly. I didn't want to drive the same car for seven years, having the battery with a 80 mile range when every new vehicle had a 200-300m range towards the end of that range.
That price is utter nonsense. Ship one in from the states. The most expensive 2011 Nissan Leaf listed for sale on Autotrader.com in the entire US is under $9k USD. The cheapest is $5,7k - with 40k miles, BTW.
Surely there's something distorting your pricing figures...
"If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
I never liked gas or diesel because I have asthma with other allergies ðY"
Why? Pack failures have not been bad - even on Leafs, which don't have cooled packs (they resolved the hot-climate-degradation issues with the "Lizard Pack" and replaced any that had gone bad). Sure, leafs degrade more than other EVs, but "failures"? That has never been a significant issue with them You know what you're getting based on how many bars it has left when you buy it.
Not true at all. Even ignoring that EVs were really big in the early 1900s, "modern" EVs have been heavily in development since the EV-1 days. Decades.
That does not give you an excuse to price compare "6-year-used" with "new"
Even Leafs have done "fine", although they do degrade. Teslas and other ones that baby their packs more have done superbly. A typical Tesla degradation curve is about 4% in the first year, then it greatly slows; total degradation by year five is only 6-7% on average. You'll lose more "range per tank" on a gasoline car than that.
Then don't buy one that's "down to 28 miles" (although I really doubt that, unless the had severe hot climate degradation and they never bothered getting the replacement). As mentioned, you know what you're getting based on how many bars it has left.
Also as mentioned, the prices you saw are ridiculous. You can get one from the US that's only a couple years old for the price you were talking about.
Yes, that's what farmers in 1900 thought about their taxes paying for road paving for those automobiles owned by wealthy city folk which did nothing but smoke up their air and spook their horses.
The tax credit effectively passes directly to the used market. Vehicle cheaper when new = vehicle cheaper when used. Beyond that, that's not the point; the point is to kickstart the industry. Credits to help vehicles get up to a few percent market penetration have a nearly meaningless effect on your total tax burden, but they have a huge impact on the rate at which EVs can take.
"If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
Because we all drive Bentleys, Rolls-Royces and Jaguars in England...
Besides, the build quality is often awful. I saw a recent Rolls-Royce at the Bonhams auction at Goodwood earlier this year. The panels were completely asymmetric. A colleague of mine said you could always tell if an E-Type had been rebuilt - the shutlines were perfectly even, and they certainly didn't come out of the factory like that.
Because they donâ(TM)t want to pay the political price of screwing everything up. Just keep your eye on the little red ball. Youâ(TM)ll never figure out which walnut shell itâ(TM)s under. These con artists will take all your money and leave you with nothing but a complete economic distaster. I hope and pray your people can overcome it.
Funny, I've know a lot of Dutch people and as a people I love them. In fact I've met only one Dutch guy I didn't think highly of - I used to say that he messed up my opinion that the Dutch as a universally likeable people. I've worked with them, dated some, and sailed with one guy I literally trusted my life with.
Lithium is one of earths more abundant minerals, there is no running out.
Waterfox - a Firefox fork with legacy extension support, security updates and better privacy by default.
That site makes no sense. He lost 2 of 12 bars but 50% of his range?
The GOM isn't very useful for this kind of comparison. Where are the Leaf Spy logs?
Lots of taxis with 200k miles and over 80% left.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
I don't know about the USA, but in Germany repealing unconstitutional laws is the job of the Federal Constitutional Court. Judical review is what they do for living.
"It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
Unless there is some fusion/fission going on inside the battery, or exhaustion of fumes, the lithium is going exactly nowhere.
int main(void) {while(1) fork(); return 0;}
-substance x- is one of earths more abundant minerals, there is no running out.
Said every industrialist ever. Crude Oil used to come up in springs fouling everything around it. Now look at us.
~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.
One HUGE difference between Lithium and oil... the lithium is not used up when the battery reaches the end of its life. Oil is converted to water and carbon dioxide. The lithium remains in the battery. It can be recycled.
"Known Lithium Reserves" is not an estimate on the total amount of lithium on the earth. It is an _very_ conservative estimate of the amount of lithium that can be economically recovered using known, proven sources of lithium.
As lithium prices rise, reserves increase because if becomes economically feasible because it become economically viable to extract lithium from other sources.
As the original poster pointed out, there is a vast amount of lithium in seawater. Seawater is a lousy source of lithium, since seawater is only about 0.6ppm lithium. There are brines out there that are 300ppm lithium. But there is a LOT of seawater.
We will not and cannot run out of lithium.
Perhaps they just don't like armchair psychologists who write like retards?
Sure, if I were doing it as transportation.
If I were doing it as rolling troll, irish child fire stoker. Perhaps something like a K5 blazer with the top off, so the stoker has a legal seat. Not that this contraption could ever pass CA smog, have to find an early smog exempt one...
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
What do you want me to say?
Additional Cites...
As a start, let's just look at what it means to take care of your battery. This means don't charge it to more than ~80% of capacity and don't discharge below 20%.
- This takes the 73 mile range down to 73 X 80% X 80% or 46.7 miles
Next, let's assume that after 7 years, the capacity is expected to be down to 80% of the new, maximum.
- This takes the 46.7 miles down to 46.7 X 80% or 37.4 miles for 'battery-kindness"
http://www.plugincars.com/real...
"Nine bars equates to about 70 percent of remaining capacity--meaning that the effective range of a 2011 Nissan Leaf, originally rated at 73 miles, could be down to something like 50 miles."
http://www.greencarreports.com...
In theory, the range of my Leaf is 83 miles when fully charged. In practice, however, that varies widely depending on where you're going and who is driving. My wife, for example, tends to drive more aggressively than I do and she has experienced somewhat shorter range. Similarly, range drops off significantly when you go on the highway or crank the AC.
https://www.treehugger.com/car...
So we are replacing 'known oil reserves' with 'Known lithium reserves' now.
What happens after we reach 'peak battery production'?
The same thing that happens with peak oil, you know the thing that has been talked about for the past 50 years that has never happened.
Mining reserves are based on the same supply and demand as the actual sale of goods. That's why "peak {noun}" won't be reached.
Firstly the GP was wrong, there's 37Mt of know reserves excluding China which is assumed to be sitting on a shitload which are not counted.
Secondly the GP said it right at the end of his sentence. It is possible to extract lithium from the oceans, it's just currently cheaper to evaporate it from a mineral pool or dig it out of the ground. If peak lithium involves the use of 30 trillion cars, I think we'll be alright. As will our kids, and their kids, and their kids, and their kids and the.....
Many decisions made by the previous administration here were repugnant to the Constitution, and/or were put in place absent legal authority to do so (executive orders that over-reached). Removing those is not spiteful, it is legally responsible and will hopefully disincentive future administrations from similarly exceeding their legal authority.
And yet none of them were actually removed from the courts, you know the ones that actually determine the legal authority. What does that tell you?
Why do you think Self-Driving Cars will be "far too expensive to individually own"? History suggest mass production will make them cheap enough to individually own like typical Human-Driven Cars - and surely car-making companies have every incentive to do so if at all possible.
As the Brits say
My car may be rubbish but, by God, it's British rubbish.
That's the super robot part.
Nissan removed the 80% charge feature years ago, because it turned out to be pointless. Those taxis I mentioned get multiple rapid charges a day, then a 100% over night.
73 miles range is a joke, you would have to border it like crazy to do that badly. I used to do regular 65 mile trips in a 24kWh car in the cold with heavy rain, uphill, and arrive with over 20% left without even really trying.
Anyway, around here you can easily get a used Leaf or Zoe with minimal degradation for under 10k.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
The layering of the conflicting legislation were pointed out by a German sociologists Max Weber. He called it materialization. To be fair, how many times has the US rewritten its Constitution during its existence and changed something like the role and powers of the President or the Speaker of the House? In Europe, a rewriting of constitutions seems to be an international past time.
Does anyone think about the effort and environmental impact required to mine and build the batteries?
Does anyone think about the environmental impact on disposal of the batteries?
Does anyone think about where the electricity for this coming from and environmental impact?
Where I live (Canada) there is already a long running need for a plug in at every parking spot, for a similarly critical need: making sure your vehicle starts when you come back to it (block heater). In this case it's a fight against cold weather, there's very few electric vehicles here. A block heater is standard on pretty much every new car purchased in Canada, and each has an electric plug in coming out of the front. People here are used to plugging in their vehicles when they get home for a good portion of the year.
So I'd say I already live in a society that has aimed for maximum plug-in parking penetration for a long time. Some observations:
- You're straight up wrong if you think most public garages will supply them. Comes down to cost. Very few parking garages here have plug ins, as important as it may be.
- Only until it reaches a certain point will you find free charging anywhere. That will disappear very quick. How do we handle short term electric billing?
- Putting in a new charger or outlet might be reasonable for a private homeowner, but fat chance in hell apartment building owners will install that many outlets (which have to be wired back to each unit's power to bill correctly). Many, many people live in rented apartments. I do, and we have plug ins, but if it weren't a requirement when built it would never be done. Also, guest spots do not get plug ins.
The stat of 15 million tons of lithium is completely incorrect.. it is not a rare commodity at all.
How many do I think I interact with, not many and ones I have run across all come off the same. I did not say all Dutch people, just the ones I came across and I assure you in a multi-cultural country you come across all sorts of distinct cultural behaviour. The Dutch one, likely a hold over from world war 2, some of this stuff last generation after generation and I did say, impressions and feelings. To make you happy, maybe, all the business dealings were straight up no cheating, no contractual problem what so ever, it is just the way interactions felt. Make no mistake though, the first to ban is far better off financially than the rest and that has a big impact on the decision to do so, the losses faced by existing owners and not saying anything is keeping those consequences secret.
Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
You talked about "the Dutch" and "they are" instead of saying something like "the Dutch people I dealt with."
Anyway, let's see what happens with the ban. It's just a plan now, and with Rutte as PM it can still go either way. They haven't shown any real consideration for the environment yet so my hopes are low. But on the other hand, I would be very reluctant buying a fuel-powered car these days, because even if the ban doesn't go through their resale value will drop immensely in the coming years anyway, thanks to the electric car getting more and more affordable and popular.
-- Cheers!
The ban should be progressive ie metropolitan areas first and it really should be done across the EU together and real discussion about what happens to the banned vehicles. Of course still early but they need to discuss the broader issues and not dump problems on adjoining countries and give people lots of warning and help defray the losses at consumer level.
Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
"in Europe legislation can easily survive for centuries."
And that has been modded "insightful"?
Of course it *can* survive for centuries. But also it *can* be repealed by the next government with the same ease.
I'd say you have (by this criterion) three kinds of laws:
1) Merely utilitarian: they tend to be there for ages, sometimes even far beyond its utility timespan. They doesn't rise political concern and no one takes the hassle to deal with them. I.e.: legislation on some technical regulation.
2) Hidden partisanship: they are very contested by the opposition when proposed, because they need to appease their electorate but, either because they really make common sense or because of political corruption, when the former opposition rises to government, they "forget" about those laws. I.e.: regulations on abortion or divorce, big-corps control/no-control.
3) Laws fully driven by political agenda. They tend to vary on a country by country level, but those are the ones that get heavily changed whenever the government changes party colors. In my country, for instance, those related to education.
This regulations on ICE looks to me to be either on 2 or 3, and that they go beyond the current party in government depends heavily on it. In any case, my point stands: any regulation meant to be enforced by future governments can obviously also be repealed by future governments, so no point on too much fanfare when approving them.
"Although it would be nice to allow the market (aka the people) to make that decision."
It's been shown time and again that market, aka the people, is notably bad at taking decisions with long time impact. We see time and again that the product with a lower price tag wins, no matter what its total cost of ownership is.
So if it happened that electric cars were more expensive to build and so more expensive to buy, people wouldn't buy them even if they were cheaper in the long run. For lower impact goods, it's just their money, but if it also happened that electric cars really were a better option for the environment (and I'm not saying any of those two things to be true, I'm just saying *if*) then they would be a good target for specific legislation. Contrary to standard USA thinking, in EU we know "the invisible hand" is not an almighty God, and "communism" is not a rude word either.
Nah, just demand payment through credit card. If you report a dirty car, someone checks the video, and if validated, charges the previous occupant for the cleanup.
Not rocket science.
But on the other hand, I would be very reluctant buying a fuel-powered car these days, because even if the ban doesn't go through their resale value will drop immensely in the coming years anyway, thanks to the electric car getting more and more affordable and popular.
I doubt it. There will be demand for internal combustion cars for decades to come. Electric cars are still a tiny part of the market and while that part is growing, that is happening very slowly. Even VW Group (probably the most ambitious car company in electrification) expects electric cars to be only around 25% of their sales in 2025. The average car is around ten years old, give or take, and a lot more in poorer countries, which is were a lot of older cars end up when sold.
For money they absolutely will. Which has been repeatedly demonstrated in countries with high EV adoption.
"Yes", and "The same way we handle electronic billing everywhere else" - by any of over a dozen different possible payment mechanisms. IMHO, ones built into the car are most convenient (charge connectors have data pins)
That's like saying "fat chance in hell apartment building owners will install that many parking spaces". Literally every argument you could make applies to both equally. Ex: "People don't want to rent from me if they can't park" -> (future) "People don't want to rent from me if they can't charge"; "The city makes me install this many parking spaces" -> (future) "The city makes me install this many charging spaces." Etc.
Furthermore, home charging isn't the only way charging can be done; there's also workplace charging, and fast chargers at shopping centres / grocery stores / etc.
"If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
Towing trailers absolutely can be done (see Model X or any of the electric freight trucks available today), and just like with gasoline or diesel vehicles, trailers reduce your range. So they simply require larger batteries and/or faster charging. EVs have more than enough power to tow trailers; if there's one thing they're not short on, it's torque.
If you want to see someone tow a heavy boat up a mountain, for example, here you go :) Here's one towing a caravan. Model X is expensive, but Tesla's next vehicle after the Model 3 will be the Model Y, another crossover (it's still not clear whether the Model 3 will end up with a trailer option, but it'd be shocking if Model Y didn't).
"If there was an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'."
Currently these cars exist for the wealthy few. Expanding this to the general populace is going to have serious implications on the power consumption. The grid might not be able to support it unless additional power generation is built. If this is not done in a green way, then this entire idea to ban petrol and diesel is going to miss the point.
There are scaling issues with electric cars not only in the burden on the power grid, but also in terms of the cost to produce those lithium batteries. The worldwide supply should be large enough, but it is not evenly distributed. When everyone is going to switch to battery-powered cars, the cost is undoubtedly going to rise for buying this from countries like Bolivia. The battery cost is already one of the drawbacks to an electric car. If it increases, they will be priced out of the budgets of the average household.
There is a lot of work to do to make this feasible. 13 years may not suffice considering the infrastructure that will be necessary.
Lithium is too rare of a mineral to enable mass production cost cutting. If we have to go to ocean evaporation mining, there's plenty out there, but labor, and therefore cost, will increase.
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
America is on a very dangerous anti-fact, anti science, anti intellectual, anti learning from history bender.
The hangover is going to suck..
What's so expensive about self-driving cars? There's the sensors, the control circuitry, and the software. The sensors wouldn't add all that much onto the cost of a car (my Forester came with what they call Eyesight technology, which along with the power lift gate cost about three thousand), the control circuitry except for the processors is already there, and the software costs can be amortized over hundreds of thousands or millions of installations a year.
The reason we don't have them now is that we don't know how quite how to do it well enough.
"When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
And this is relevant - how? According to the Dutch plan, the last gasoline vehicles will be sold in 2029, and by the time they get to be ten years old (you aren't buying anything newer for $500 as a general rule) it will be 2039, and there will be plenty of older electric vehicles.
"When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
You assume that by 2029 electric cars will dominate the market so that people won't revolt over the inability to purchase new internal combustion cars. If electric cars can't compete in the market then there will be people keeping their gas burners longer, raising their prices. This will make all car prices soar, old and new.
Electric cars just cost more than gas burners. I don't see even 15 years of development fixing this. We are hitting some very real physical limits on battery technology, we can't make them much cheaper, lighter, or more energy dense. For there to be enough used electric cars in 2039 to compete with gasoline cars then they have to be selling in quantity now. Maybe we could see this ramp up in electric vehicles happen in the next ten years, but I doubt it.
They have elections in the Netherlands and if people are unhappy with this policy it will go away. I just saw something about how wind and solar subsidies are likely to end in Australia because people got tired of paying more for electricity and seeing blackouts come more often. Maybe the people making the windmills will be able to dominate the market, it just won't be because the government mandated it.
I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
And when you have a lineup of cars a quarter mile long, and your hand pumping gas and diesel into vehicles, how's that going to go for you. Mopst gas stations are not built so they can be gravity fed. Yes, I'm sure there are a few with optimal conditions, but basically, fuel distribution is based upon operating electrical grids.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
If electric cars can't compete in the market then there will be people keeping their gas burners longer, raising their prices. This will make all car prices soar, old and new.
Supply and demand within the Netherlands has very little influence on second-hand car prices. It's a small market. As long as other European countries still allow the sale of new internal combustion cars, they will be fine.
Electric cars just cost more than gas burners. I don't see even 15 years of development fixing this. We are hitting some very real physical limits on battery technology, we can't make them much cheaper, lighter, or more energy dense. For there to be enough used electric cars in 2039 to compete with gasoline cars then they have to be selling in quantity now. Maybe we could see this ramp up in electric vehicles happen in the next ten years, but I doubt it.
While the physical limits argument is very true, that doesn't necessarily mean that prices can't come down. Several major car manufacturers, including the world's largest, are preparing to ramp up production of electric cars very quickly and many people in the car industry expect price parity in the next ten years. Electric cars may require expensive materials and a lot of energy to produce, but they are also much simpler technologically and less labour is needed to build them. With sufficient scale and some evolutionary technology development, it is really not that unlikely.
You are forgetting depreciation. Second-hand Leafs are very cheap. I don't know about the depreciation of the Accord (Hondas are rather rare where I live), but I'm willing to bet the difference is more than the maintenance cost of the Accord.
And when you have a lineup of cars a quarter mile long, and your hand pumping gas and diesel into vehicles, how's that going to go for you.
It'll work better than electric, where you don't have the option of fuel at all. In your mind waiting a day to fill up is just as bad as not filling up at all? Ever seen how water is easily rationed out in disaster areas? Petrol and diesel can work the same way.
Mopst gas stations are not built so they can be gravity fed.
They don't need to be built special. Very few stations are located in the bottom of a valley with no downhill in any direction. Most stations have a downhill in at least one direction. A small difference, a slight grade, is enough to drain the tank using only gravity.
And, let's be honest - power outages of a few weeks does not leave people stranded due to how easily it is to transport fuel to the disaster area. Every disaster area I've seen still manages to have moving vehicles because a single small tanker can bring in enough fuel to power a fleet of light trucks for weeks. I want to see how many batteries you'll bring in when electric vehicles need to move in a disaster area.
We've already seen how well ICE engines cope in disaster areas (no power, flooding everywhere). We see it all the time.
I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
The plan is to not allow new cars with emissions starting 2025, which is a bit aggressive.
If people want to keep their gasoline burners longer, they can. Given the EU, I can't see market conditions in the Netherlands dominating the price for a commodity.
Electric cars may cost more than gasoline to make, but they are in general more economical to run. They're less complex, and don't rely on oil pumping and refineries and international relations.
If there aren't enough electric used cars in 2025, people will buy used gasoline and diesel cars. No real problem.
"When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
If there aren't enough electric used cars in 2025, people will buy used gasoline and diesel cars. No real problem.
If there's no import of ICE cars allowed then prices of used cars will rise. This will deny the less wealthy access to cars, people will drive cars in poor repair longer, with the lowered standard of living that comes with it as people deal with lowered mobility, higher pollution, and lowered safety of vehicles. If ICE cars are allowed to be imported you'd still see some rises in the cost of used vehicles, and everything that follows from it, but not near as much. But then if used ICE cars are allowed to be imported then they've done next to nothing to reducing the number of ICE cars on the road.
Given the EU, I can't see market conditions in the Netherlands dominating the price for a commodity.
The Netherlands is not unique in wanting to reduce the number of ICE vehicles on the road. The market for used ICE cars will be shared among other EU nations that have similar bans.
The only way to make a ban on ICE cars work is to reduce the cost of electric cars where everyone, not just the wealthy, can afford them. Once that happens then people will just gravitate to electric cars because they are cheaper and the ban is largely unnecessary.
If the government bans something, and people are not offered something they see as a viable alternative, then people will find ways around the ban.
Since people in the Netherlands have the ability to vote out these idiots I don't expect this to get very far. Once people start to see the prices of cars go up this ban will disappear or get scaled back.
I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
"I don't know about the USA, but in Germany repealing unconstitutional laws is the job of the Federal Constitutional Court."
That's a different beast of a law: an unconstitutional law is one that never should have risen to law to start with because it lacks a technicality (abide to the constitution, in this case), just like a law would be repealed if, let's say, there were a mistake counting its votes for approval but wouldn't be known till later or something like that.