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Ask Slashdot: What Kind of Societies Will the First Mars Colonies Be?
New submitter nyri writes: I'm making a two-part study in what kind of societies humans will build on Mars when we start to colonize the red planet. In first part, I'm trying to approach the question sociologically as rigorously as possible. Sociology being what it is, this also includes informed speculation. So, what does Slashdot think: What sort of colonies will humans build on the red planet? How large will they be? How will they make decisions and select their leaders? What kind of judicial systems will they use? What happens if a colony's population grows larger than they are able to sustain? Will they be religious and if so, how? How will their internal and external economy work? And so on...
A second part of the study is of psychometric nature to explore the kind of personalities be present in first colonies. I also encourage you to take the survey.
A second part of the study is of psychometric nature to explore the kind of personalities be present in first colonies. I also encourage you to take the survey.
A couple of months of research can frequently save a couple of hours in the library.
Your questions are not new, to science or to science fiction, and have been covered extensively by people with relevant PhDs. Instead of tracking down their research and reading their conclusions and the reasoning for them... you're asking Reddit. Anonymous, probably ignorant and wish-based responses with the occasional gem you won't be able to reliably distinguish from the giant manure pile.
Since our governments aren't making the effort, the first Mars colonies will likely be run by corporations. It won't be pretty.
Please see this documentary film relating specifically to your question: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt01...
What is popular is not always right; what is right is not always popular.
Colonizing mars only works with technology we don't have yet. Once that tech exisits, societies will change, wether here or on mars will then make little difference. If people will be selected to live on mars, chances are we'll look for the emotionally stable to do the first wave of colonisation. ... You know, like astronauts.
We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
Humanity is far too stupid to achieve a society of any real population on Mars before things like CRISPR, 3d printed plagues, and atomic warfare reduce our societies to a shadow of their former glory.
Heck, even the overuse of antibiotics is about to reduce our medical field to some sort of 1800's vintage joke.
"Sir you have appendicitis. Back in the good old days you would have lived, but now we can't even do surgery without you dying of an infection. Here is enough morphine to ride out the rest of your days in relative agony..."
Democracies only work in peacetime. On Mars your every decision must be weighed against your imminent demise and most people aren't capable of making decisions fast enough to deal with that.
It will start out as a Democracy with enlightened leadership. Eventually, factions would develop and then devolve into a barbaric society where there will be one despotic leader, science will be forgotten and folks will be just getting by until they all die-off from thirst.
Or, they will argue among themselves so much that a decision will never get made and they all die from thirst because of their inaction.
Or, the Martians come out of hibernation and eat all of them.
Nothing good will happen because humanity is a stupid child race and incapable of rising above its basic primate thinking.
...so basically the same as on Earth, except without all the usual crap drawing our attention away from existential loneliness.
Because there is no fucking reason to go there other than bragging rights. Its a dead planet. The only time people migrate is when there is something to migrate for, be it a gold rush or self preservation. The reasons to go to Mars are............ Yeah
First of all, nobody is going to Mars for a lot longer than most people think. Costs too much now. Costs will drop slowly, And second, once people get there, most exploration will surely be done by robotic rovers -- probably controlled from orbit. AFAICS, there won't be any colonies until some terraforming is done. At the very least, getting rid of the toxic perchlorates that are said to be prsent in the soil. And hopefully some Oxygenation of the virtually nonexistent atmosphere. There may be a (very) few research stations on the surface and those will likely be militaristic. Think Antarctica -- which, BTW, is what the Martian climate will be like except that Antarctica is warmer and you can breath Antarctic air if you are careful about frostbite.
You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
Well, maybe more than just the techies who exploit people...
Maybe all the criminals in prison... just let the doors stay wide open for anyone who wants to escape.
Hell, the cost to send them there has to be cheaper than the cost of prisons here! Have you seen how much money per prison it costs these days? It is way more than the average minimum wage job and they just sit there and do nothing...
Send all the bankers to mars too!!!
...given the bullshit happening here on earth. Hopefully they don't follow us and kill themselves.
Duh!
With built in guilt of reproductibility.
The real question is 'why' we would colonize Mars, and it has to make some kind of economic sense because it will be an expensive endeavor.
love is just extroverted narcissism
"The Martian government was directed by ten men, the leader of whom was elected by universal suffrage for five years and entitled 'Elon.' Two houses of Parliament enacted the laws to be administered by the Elon and his cabinet."
Wernher von Braun
The Mars Project, Page 177
That's my guess!
I hope not. Leave religion behind, it's never caused anything but problems.
A Mars society is going to be science based otherwise they won't last very long. Will this cause atheism to be dominate on Mars?
We need to do everything we can to ensure that the first and subsequent colonies are successful. That said, the first colony will definitely fail badly maybe even horrifically and we better have the stomach for that. There will be events or situations we didnt prepare for.
Exploration and pioneering is difficult but we need to do it or fall back into the tribalism and stupidity that plagues humanity.
With all the satellite debris in earth orbit, and only a matter of time before pieces causes others to break apart, it might be that hitting Mars will be impossible, because any ship leaving the atmosphere would get perforated by debris.
Even if it were doable, there is no ROI in doing so, so no corporation will do it. Governments are wising up that they cannot afford it either, because it gives them no real advantage.
And they will most likely be speaking Mandarin.
Unless the US can get rid of the cancerous politics called Trumpism, China will be the next imperial colonial power.
excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
Anyone leaving Earth is on a one-way ticket to death. We can't even get to the moon, which is merely 237,000 miles away (or thereabouts), despite going there regularly ~50 years ago (hoho)). Mars, no-fscking-chance. Use bots, and hope future generations can overcome the many many problems. But that's not happening with Islam flooding through the scientific world via House of Red Shield and their puppets like Soron. Heck, we won't even be breeding in 20 years.
Or something resembling a tribe, just with higher technology.
Just make sure you bring an inexhaustible supply of robots.
I think it will be very similar to how Antarctica is today. There is a good starting point as a study case. Several science bases (maybe even some civilians, as Chile have in Antarctica today), each base belonging to a country of origin on earth, so each base will have a "local" law depending on that country. Lots of interactions/helping between bases. Mars won't be considered a foreign territory by any country, for many years to come. As in Antarctica, claimed territories will overlapped, but should not be a problem for anyone for some time. Problems will start when countries start exporting natural resources back to earth... specially coming from those overlapped territories. Thats my 2 pesos.
As in.... human.
Too bad they will probably outnumber the martians.
Seems pretty obvious to me... i doubt that the first society will even last long enough for the second one to arrive.
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
Having lots of sex with green-skinned women!
I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
Yep, not your cavity that is crammed full of cocks.
What else would you expect from a society made up entirely of robots?
If it's commercial interests, it'll probably be governed by a board of directors. If it's by governments, it'll probably be essentially a military dictatorship (although it will probably be phrased more politely). In any event, given the conditions of living on Mars, highly centralized government is almost a certainty. A lot of things have to be coordinated, such as production of breathable air, creation of food and shelter, etc. Given that any mistakes could be catastrophic, there probably aren't going to be a lot of opportunities for doing your own thing or entrepreneurship. Sorry libertarians.
Progressivism: Parasites helping parasites to help themselves - to other people's stuff.
We are going to send the SJW's to the glorious preserve of Mars!
Massive marketing campaigns and inspired stories of the social virtues in this new found planet.
In reality, they will be shipped off to work in the mines of Africa. That's exactly what the song Toto was describing.
the gop system people will need pay life support fees (but get it free in jail)
Science fiction books have been spectacularly wrong before, but that's the best source of such speculation anyway. Heinlein's Red Planet offers an idea — somewhat based on how remote colonies on Earth have been managed, when crossing the Atlantic took about as long — and was as risky — as getting to Mars may be soon. Written in 1940ies, it allowed for an ancient sentient race of Martians, but that does not detract from its description of the human life over there.
And how those colonies, dissatisfied with the overlords representing the remote government, eventually rebelled.
Another excellent book is The Martian Way — by Azimov.
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
I mean his Mars trilogy was nearly completely about the rise of a unique Martian society over the 100-200 years since its founding.
One side will say the Elon said that we will be a Solar civilization.
The otherside who worship the Musk will state that no, the truth is that The Musk wants us to live with the Giga batteries.
They will then fight and kill the other side because they don't believe the right way.
And then all the papers were gone except one. All the laws and beliefs of Earth were burnt into small hot ashes which soon would be carried off in a wind.
Timothy looked at the last thing that Dad tossed in the fire. It was a map of the World, and it wrinkled and distorted itself hotly and went — flimpf — and was gone like a warm, black butterfly. Timothy turned away.
“Now I’m going to show you the Martians,” said Dad. “Come on, all of you. Here, Alice.” He took her hand.
Michael was crying loudly, and Dad picked him up and carried him, and they walked down through the ruins toward the canal.
The canal. Where tomorrow or the next day their future wives would come up in a boat, small laughing girls now, with their father and mother.
The night came down around them, and there were stars. But Timothy couldn’t find Earth. It had already set. That was something to think about.
A night bird called among the ruins as they walked. Dad said, “Your mother and I will try to teach you. Perhaps we’ll fail. I hope not. We’ve had a good lot to see and learn from. We planned this trip years ago, before you were born. Even if there hadn’t been a war we would have come to Mars, I think, to live and form our own standard of living. It would have been another century before Mars would have been really poisoned by the Earth civilization. Now, of course — ”
They reached the canal. It was long and straight and cool and wet and reflective in the night.
“I’ve always wanted to see a Martian,” said Michael. “Where are they, Dad? You promised.”
“There they are,” said Dad, and he shifted Michael on his shoulder and pointed straight down.
The Martians were there. Timothy began to shiver.
The Martians were there — in the canal — reflected in the water. Timothy and Michael and Robert and Mom and Dad.
The Martians stared back up at them for a long, long silent time from the rippling water
END
I think there are a lot of similarities between the exploration of Antarctica and of Mars. Sure, I'll get to some important differences, but I think it's the right starting point.
Once upon a time, Antarctica sounded like just about the most harsh, alien, abandoned and adventurous place one could go. The world's boldest men organized heroic expeditions to reach the ultimate bragging right: being the first to visit the South Pole. In time some succeeded, but not before others miserably died. The sheer adventure and alienness of Antarctica captured our fantasy. H. P. Lovecraft's best fantasy horror story takes place there.
But then, Antarctica was replaced in our imagination by Mars, the new go-to setting for our fantasy and horror. We got to the point where we knew just enough to fire up our imagination about what Mars is like, but we could still fill in the many gaps in knowledge with our fantasy. Just like "conquered" Antarctica with bold expeditions, we will eventually "conquer" Mars. Human footprints will get made, photographed, instagrammed, and gushed about. And then what?
Then Mars will start to seem a lot more like Antarctica: a place where we could survive and even build cities, with great effort and great expense, but ... why? The reason why no settlements are being built on the Antarctic continent is not because of international laws. If those laws expired, it's not like villages would start springing up. We have some scientific stations in Antarctica, and will will have some on Mars. I think their governing principles will be almost identical. But we have no Antarctic immigrants, and I don't expect Martian immigrants, beyond a couple of very rich weirdos. Once the place is covered with footprints, the exoticism will have worn off, and we'll see it for what it is: a strangely beautiful but also profoundly inhospitable cold place that's hostile to human habitation, and that probably should be preserved rather than bulldozed for space condos. The scientists there will complain of terrible food, terrible ping, terrible odors, terrible crampedness, annoying cancers and terrible shipping charges on anything they want to buy. At that point, who will be signing up to live there? The same people now dying to live in Antarctica.
No matter how much of an educated guess you make, you never will know. Not even close. So, for this, you will really have to wait and see.
it will be the like the moon is a harsh mistress, but on mars
..at first.
As much as I'm wired to look at what can go wrong with things (because ignoring that could be disasterous), I really hate to have to be that way with this subject. However there's so many things that can go wrong, most of them fatal, that you really can't ignore it.
The first few attempts at human colonization of Mars will likely be disasters where all the participants end up dead for one reason or another; sadly, anyone who agrees to go has to accept that it's very possibly a suicide mission. There is no rescue from Earth; there likely won't be any way of escaping back to Earth; the Martian atmosphere, such as it is, isn't breathable, and it's thin enough that (if I understand it correctly) radiation from the sun is a problem -- as is radiation exposure just getting there in the first place. Any habitat built there has to be 100% self contained, 100% self sufficient, essentially like a spacecraft except rooted to the planets surface, and with some notable exceptions: you have to be able to grow your own food in a sustainable way, you're not bringing all your food with you like you would for a LEO mission or to go live on the ISS. And so on, and so on. A whole list of things that, if they aren't done right, can kill everyone in the colony. That's not even taking into consideration the unknown unknowns that could also kill everyone. Assuming we stuck with it, there'd have to be several attempts at a Mars colony, before you got one that actually didn't end up with everyone dead. At least at our current level of technology, that is. Fifty years from now might be a different story entirely. Of course, fifty years from now, we might not even be capable of putting anything in LEO, for all we know.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: We need to learn to walk before we can learn to run. We need Training Wheels on this particular bike -- and luckily for us, we've got the perfect place to practice right in our local neighborhood: the Moon. We should be building a permanent human presence on the Moon first, with all the infrastructure that implies, followed by industry to support space operations. We can make all our mistakes on the Moon, first, where it's possible to come up from Earth to fix them and/or rescue inhabitants. Industry built there can support any Mars missions (or asteroid missions, or whatever) easier than having to launch from Earth all the time. There would be many more advantages to this than I can easily list here.
I think you underestimate the religious impulse. Religions are and were nearly universal in human history. In fact I suspect they were adaptive.
How do you get people to cooperate? How do you create social cohesion? How do you install and stabilize a command structure? Religions, most of them, are incredibly useful for installing social ideas about "how things ought to be" and "how we organize ourselves".
Religions create a common social history, a shared book of stories.
That is the answer to the question.
Any far-off colony will likely be a Corporate Entity, and exist under the totalitarian rule of the Board and its dictates.
After all, who else is likely going top be able to fund such an endeavor? The chances of survival will be closely tied to the colonists adhering to carefully calculated "laws for survival", Supply and demand quotas, with food and energy supplies generated with the lowest possible bottom line (and quality to match). Good producers will be rewarded, and less than expected output will suffer penalties. Threatening behaviors of colonists will have to be dealt with harshly, as that would threaten everyone...
In other words, doomed before they start.
If the Bean-Counters get involved, and the Profit Margins of the shareholders are in any way put at risk by the success or failure of the mission/colony, then things will be less than hospitable for the colony environment. It will be more like a prison than a "peat pellet pot" of hope and salvation for Humanity.
All in all, I doubt the first few attempts at colonies will be very successful, except as examples of what not to do in future attempts.
Because something just has to go seriously wrong, otherwise how will they make a movie about it?
I tend to rant.
I know it's verboten to actually RTFA around here, but if anyone had you would have noticed that the "survey" that OP links to is really a personality test. Stealth Scientology recruiting?
It makes no sense to send males up. They tend to have higher average body mass and a higher metabolism. Both of which demand more scarce resources. Male reproductive duties can be easily replaced by sperm banks. Then there is the testosterone aggressiveness.
For genetic diversity a few select males may be allowed to reach puberty. After which their sperm would be harvested for future generations.
Then the males can be recycled for food product before the hungry years of late puberty and early adolescence kick in.
putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
The first Mars society will probably be very niggardly, as they will need to be careful with limited resource. They will also need to keep the colony spic and span as any germs or microbes which grow out of control could potentially wipe out the enclosed population. Finally, they will have to be vigilant and keep the colony in good working order because a failure in the heating system would cause the temperatures inside to get very nippy and even a small chink in the structure could spell doom.
Of course it will be a benevolent dictatorship!
At least until there are enough minions to declare most of them slaves to build the temples!
Then it becomes an evil dictatorship!
That is the plan! Baaaahaaaahhaaaaahaaaahaaaaaa!
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how many female indentured servant PHD's paying off their travel/air/food fees each billionaire overlord is allowed. /s?
Will have to be run like a Navy ship or Airplane.
One person will have to run it as a meritocracy based dictatorship.
Democracy will come later.
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*
...short-lived? It's a pretty hostile environment and small mistakes, e.g. miscalculating energy, air, water, or food consumption, as well as unforeseeable events will lead to certain death for many. It'll be a harsh, cruel, unforgiving, and lonely environment to try and make your home in. Any estimates on how much it'll cost per kilo to transport people, equipment, and supplies to Mars?
Debate is a form of harassment. Do not question my truth.
Colonization of Mars will never be a long term one, because Mars has no "free" resources that humans directly need.
Criminals - that's the only group willing to be put there for life.
Just a huge nest of fucking orange cockroaches that won't die no matter how much poison they ingest. It's the only thing that could survive on Mars and the orange spray tan skin color will help them blend into the environment to escape detection.
Well... in Acidalia Planitia they're an Elon-tater-ship.
Valles Marineris is a Musk-ratocracy.
But in Schiaparelli, they're an autonomous collective
And in Olympus Mons they're an anarcho-syndicalist commune. They take turns to act as a sort of executive-officer-for-the-week-- But all the decisions *of* that officer hve to be ratified at a special bi-weekly meeting-- By a simple majority, in the case of purely internal affairs--But by a two-thirds majority, in the case of more major--
the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
The first Mars society will probably be very niggardly
We can only hope. Obama could be the first President of Mars!
I don't know, I am only an egg. Please pass the soup.
What do you need to colonise a planet? The same as you need to colonise a (newly discovered) continent.
That would require a source of funds, a cohesive group and a willingness to die for "the cause". Many religious groups would fit that description - or could raise the capital. As far as the very real risk of death, it's an easy spin. Add in the prospect of escape from persecution on Earth and you'd probably have them queuing at the spaceport gates.
But why only 1 religion? Why not all of the ones with a sense of persecution, a shit-ton of money (or rich believers) and a willingness to risk their lives for something they believe in.. Maybe Mars would be the place they would all want to claim for themselves. The only problem would be in a few hundred years, when their expansion and competition for resources means they would bang up against each other.
But that has always been the path on Earth, too. Plus ca change!
politicians are like babies' nappies: they should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons
OP here. First, thank you for everyone participating in the discussion. I'm personally thrilled!
Second, a friendly reminder. I would be awesome if you could also fill out the survey: https://togowhowants.net/
It would be really helpful as psychometrical research is typically plagued by too small datasets. Thank you. :)
I'm going to have to go out on a limb and say that the first mars colonies will be nonexistent. It will be the dream of man until man stops dreaming.
I think mars should be terraformed first. take some mass from that asteroid belt maybe a few icy comets, slide that greasy pig in the oven and in a million years we got ourselves another planet. Of course by that time we will have either perfect interstellar travel or perished.
lose != loose
The first communities should be robotic that can do all the hard work that humans would normally do. There is no reason to send humans there. Robots are going to replace the workforce on earth, so why should astronauts be exempt from that?
Even then it would be a waste of resources. It makes more sense to try and mine an asteroid for something, because then at least you're extracting a resource.
Take the cheese to sickbay, the doctor should see it as soon as possible - B'Elanna Torres, "Learning Curve"
will probably be very niggardly
keep the colony spic and span
get very nippy and even a small chink
LOL
If SpaceX has anything to do with it they will be rich and Chinese.
Mainly rich.
Sincerely, I don't know the answer the poster asked, but I confidently predict that so called martians - ie human living on Mars - will develop a hate love relationship with Earthlinks, kind of like colonized people do here on Earth towards their colonizers.
...to mutant Mars hookers!
imaginary, and a great example of '80s science fiction.
You're right but not really from an orbital mechanics perspective. "Local Neighborhood" is a somewhat nebulous term, in that the Delta-V to get to Mars is not that much more (in some cases less in a flyby!) than landing on the moon. It depends on a lot of factors such as how much aerobraking you can take advantage of when you get there, and the positioning of Earth and Mars. Most of the infrastructure you need to get out of our gravity well will take you to Mars without much more effort.
Secondly, Mars has a lot of things that the Moon doesn't. It has an abundant supply of water locked up in ice we can easily use to create both water and oxygen. It has an atmosphere (albeit weak) that can somewhat protect from solar radiation, and can allow for slimmer, more mobile pressure suits. It has much stronger gravity, reducing the physiological impact of a long-term mission.
They will eventually all be racists...
so, essentially, racists...
The motivation for going to Mars is rather limited. The two groups of people who would likely want to go to Mars ( at least initially ) are idealists / adventure seekers and the wealthy ( like Elon Musk ) who want a 'plan B' in the event of a catastrophe on earth ( be it natural or man made ). Since the former can't afford it I would wager the later would pay the former to ensure there is adequate laborers.
I envisage an 'estate' with a personal home of 'the gentry' surrounded by food generating biomes surrounded by much smaller homes or apartments of the 'serfs' who work the estate. The bulk of the time - when the gentry family is on earth - the surplus produce of the biomes would be sold off thereby providing additional food for a growing colony population. Only when significant numbers of the gentry relocated to Mars would there be any food constraints.
Ultimately the gentry who manufacture goods or consumables on Mars or just imported them effectively might relocate there to 'manage the business' which would further the colony growth.
Also if idealists / adventure seekers were in short supply you could easily get people in poorer countries to fill the role of serfs. I'd wager that if you offered $30k for a 3 year 'contract' to a person to work for you on Mars for 3 years ( food and lodging paid ) a great many people would sign up.
...protests, and laziness will look like in Mars colony. Because all of that will happen. That's more entertaining of a thought exercise for me.
The first colonies will be HEAVILY subsidized. They won't need to earn an income, will almost all of what they need coming from Earth. Well, actually, the very first societies will be robots. After that, some people who don't like their jobs, or their friends, and can't get a job on Earth.
The first Mars society will probably be very niggardly
You've convinced me. But how do we lure them on to the rockets? Fried chicken and grape drank?
Floating colonies in the Venusian atmosphere are actually more technically feasible for humans than the surface of Mars. At the right altitude the air pressure and temperature would be the same as Earth's, you can suck everything you need to make food, water, plastics and carbon fiber out of the atmosphere, no worries about cosmic rays, gravity is almost the same as earth and it's closer. The atmosphere wouldn't be pleasant on your skin but you don't really want to touch the Martian soil either.
Firefly!
Delta-V isn't the issue, it's time, namely the difference between getting to the Moon and getting to Mars.
Also the lack of resources on the Moon is a feature not a problem; if we can make a colony work on the Moon then it'll probably be easier to deal with Mars, and all so much closer to Earth.
You wrote "when" humans colonize Mars, not "if...". That is clear evidence that you are a fan-boy rather than an objective researcher. I don't fucking CARE what "Sociology" is today, random speculation about some far future has zero predictive value. I hope that until our technology experiences additional 'revolutions' similar in magnitude to those of the last 250 years, NO effort will be directed to what would amount to establishing a prison in Hell. The problem with Mars colonization is cost. There are two costs: 1) Opportunity cost of the resources required to install the infrastructure for a self-sustaining colony (it is currently literally exponentially cheaper to produce resources on Earth, lift them into orbit and then send them to Mars than it is to ship the infrastructure to produce those resources to Mars) and 2) The enormous environmental burden such a massive space program would put on our planet. Neither one would be a rational cost for a zero economic return.
Space is fake. The Earth is flat. The eclipses prove it.
Lunar Eclipse: https://vimeo.com/92378881
Irregular shadow shape, progression. Shadow is black, then changes color to reddish. Moon glow of uneclipsed portion increases as shadow becomes reddish, detail lost. Moon has no rotation(see Nikola Tesla): we always see the same face. Moon emits own light. Craters not from impacts: Too round.
No model of the lunar eclipse correctly captures it:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/06/why-does-the-moon-turn-red-during-a-lunar-eclipse/
https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/usa/scottsdale?iso=20140415
Next lunar eclipse: January 30/31, 2018 mid-to-west North America
Solar Eclipse: https://vimeo.com/230976895
Light of the chromosphere can be observed on the back of the moon.
We already live in a computer controlled age.
And BTW. We already know what colonies are like on Mars because there are already a couple of them there.
Robots.
will control Mars. Paid for by Westeners
Not really. While they will be racing towards Mars, they aren't exactly racing against anyone.
Screw the mile high club...
Ask Slashdot: What Kind of Societies Will the First Mars Colonies Be?
Dead.
Next question.
- First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then ???, then profit.
At -11km down the deepest point in the oceans, is easier to reach and far more amenable to human life than the red planet. Case in point: there are resources and life there that would survive even the Sun going out and the entire planet becoming an ice ball, and humans have actually been there. So is the very top of Mount Everest. Things would have to be amazingly fucked up here on Earth for Mars to become an actually useful refuge.
For those who think "but, but, asteroid?, nuclear war?" first a mid-sized asteroid impact is far more devastating than all the nuclear arsenal we have exploding at once, and second the Earth has withstood and recovered several of those in its multi-billion years of life history.
With current technology we can probably go to Mars and live there for a while and in a few centuries we might be able to start a terraforming project that will make Mars interesting for us in a few million years. By which point the Human race would have either conquered the Galaxy, or more likely make itself extinct and forgotten.
Going there is cool, I'll grand you that. Useful ? not so much, about as much as going to the Moon was.
No colony on mars will ever be self-sustaining.
I speculate that something will happen, and they will all die.
The amount of infrastructure needed, backup supplies, essential items is pretty astounding.
I suppose with enough air and food they could fortify themselves in a pressurized bunker.
All of this? A freakin' waste of taxpayer dollars.
Just check out some 1970s and 1980s movies on this subject.
Even the Simpsons have done an episode or two on this thought. Who should we send? Yea, Krusty the clown.
We've learned a lot from them, right?
But yeah, I have to agree with one of the above: there won't BE any Mars colonies.
Probably dictatorship. Whoever would be flight commander, after they land there will keep commanding. After years passing by society will "prove" him/her having a blue blood or royal origin and keep reigning (Grimaldi anyone). Unless some Martians tell them to get lost and leave Mars as were told when Americans landed on the Moon.
It seems that disussion is finshed. As the original author of the post, I would like to thank everyone participating in the disgussion.
Though as you might recall, unlike way back when, quite a few (well relatively speaking of course) people go to the Antarctic for adventure tourism. So while I don't disagree with you at all, there may be some vacation opportunities for some ultra-rich at some point I suppose.
Even a scientific community which is heavily depended on Earth support is pretty cool however. I'd imagine due to the logistics it would be of the very small variety, that said, I could totally see the "residents" coming up with some sort of joke government just for fun. Mayor of Mars or something like that, or Supreme Planetary Leader or something....
If you have ever been in a cohesive group on the same page about its goals, quick votes are a very natural way to make decisions. First colonists will be highly knowlegable explorers who just want things to work so that they can satisfy their curiosity. Complex politics can wait until later. Things may be different for asteroid miners working in a corporate environment where its clear what the purpose is and who is paying the bills.