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The Cryptocurrency Industry is 'On the Brink of an Implosion', Research Says (bloomberg.com)

Posted by msmash on from the closer-look dept.

Echoing sentiments of mainstream economists, Juniper Research is warning that many of the metrics in the cryptocurrency world are pointing to a market implosion. From a report: Industry bellwether Bitcoin had seen its daily transaction volumes fall from an average of around 360,000 a day in late 2017 to just 230,000 in September 2018. Meanwhile, daily transaction values were down from more than $3.7 billion to less than $670 million in the same period, Juniper said in the study, The Future of Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin & Altcoin Trends & Challenges 2018-2023. The market as a whole has contracted quickly as well. In the first quarter, cryptocurrency transactions totaled just over $1.4 trillion, compared with less than $1.7 trillion for 2017 as a whole, Juniper said. However, by the second quarter, transaction values had plummeted by 75 percent, with total market capitalization falling to just under $355 billion. "Based on activity during the first half of Q3, Juniper estimates a further 47 percent quarter-on-quarter drop in transaction values in that quarter," the researcher said in an accompanying white paper.

98 of 187 comments (clear)

  1. It's about time ... by sa666_666 · · Score: 5, Funny

    Let me start playing the worlds smallest violin.

    1. Re:It's about time ... by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 3, Funny

      Not only the smallest one, but continuously shrinking to boot?

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    2. Re: It's about time ... by Calydor · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Real currencies have the backing of material goods and the agreement of the entire world that these are real currencies with THIS value.

      Cryptocurrencies were never much more than Monopoly money in a really big game of Monopoly.

      --
      -=This sig has nothing to do with my comment. Move along now=-
    3. Re: It's about time ... by lgw · · Score: 1

      I'd say it a bit differently: cryptocurrencies have the potential to be accepted for good and services, just like (some) traditional currencies. If they ever do, they'll be a currency like any other, but they have yet to make much progress in that regard. They remain "almost, but not completely, unlike currency".

      Canadian Tire Money remains more well accepted than BTC, but there's nothing inherent in BTC that makes this so.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    4. Re:It's about time ... by EvilSS · · Score: 1

      But is the violin on the blockchain?

      --
      I browse on +1 so AC's need not respond, I won't see it.
    5. Re:It's about time ... by NicknameUnavailable · · Score: 1

      Let me start playing the worlds smallest violin.

      The real implosion comes 2022-2025, when quantum computers reach the point they can crack Shor's algorithm and hapless Bitcoin shills realize en mass that it's too late to make the cutover to post-quantum protocols. You can tell the whole thing is a scam because the post-quantum cutover needs to happen years in advance, must be initiated individually by each wallet owner, and the protocols which would allow for it are on the order of 30+kB PER transaction signature (as in, not just per block, per every individual transaction on a block - no lightning network solution for this because that would invalidate the whole list of transactions save for one "trusted" verifier.)

    6. Re: It's about time ... by lgw · · Score: 1

      10-12 minute (at best) transaction confirmation times ensures that BTC will NEVER be adopted as a form of electronic money that could replace Visa et al.

      Of course Visa isn't a currency, and if BTC were a currency you'd have BTC-denominated Visa cards. Banks would likely still do ACH transactions, and only move BTC between banks to the same extent that they move cash between banks today.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    7. Re:It's about time ... by hey! · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Unfortunately, it's not just people who should know better who get sucked into something like this. You also get people who are just trying to do what they ought to, which is to put some of their surplus income into savings.

      Saving isn't rocket science, but most people don't learn how to do it in schools. Nor do schools equipment them with a functioning understanding of economics, or technology. So in the absence of any educational foundation that would enable them to evaluate speculation in cryptocurrency critically, they turn to the information sources at hand, and that's actually worse than just being completely ignorant.

      The Internet has infected civilization with what may be a fatal bug: engagement metrics equal profit. The system that delivers the bulk of everyone's awareness of the world is not focused on delivering information that they need, but on provoking measurable reactions. Pushing people's emotional buttons, in other words.

      Apply this principle to creating content on something like cryptocurrencies, and you'll quickly see that informing people of the downsides of speculation isn't going to generate profit. Since most people aren't speculating in cryptocurrencies yet, you can't engage them with information about the risks. You can, however, engage those people with this message: you are missing out. Media coverage of cryptocurrencies did a poor or non-existent job of explaining the risks of speculation, and played up stories of people just like you getting rich overnight.

      To an informed point of view the idea of putting money you will actually need into cryptocurrency was extremely stupid; but to a mind pickled in clickbait that actually looks economically rational, because of opportunity costs. If, hypothetically speaking, you could be getting rich quick in an investment which was perfectly safe, then dollar cost averaging into a mutual fund with low risk and moderate return would be the stupid thing to do.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    8. Re: It's about time ... by Kaenneth · · Score: 1

      You haven't been keeping up with the latest developments: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    9. Re:It's about time ... by Kaenneth · · Score: 1

      There is not enough information on the blockchain to crack a bitcoin wallet using Quantum methods until after funds have *already been spent*.

    10. Re:It's about time ... by NicknameUnavailable · · Score: 1

      It's not about the proof, it's about the signatures. You can make a proof out of any arbitrarily complex thing. Signatures need to be for every set of transactions sent from a wallet and post-quantum protocols at their best come in at about 30kB per signature. Scale that up to Bitcoin's 360,000 transactions a day and you're looking at 10.8GB/day without even accounting for the data, ~4TB/year. That's data you don't get to truncate, and it has to be downloaded in full by everyone who isn't relying on someone else to say "yeah, trust us this is safe," which would in itself effectively void the entire utility of blockchain as a financial concept. At the end of the day you might as well be swapping P2P credits without any authentication, it would likely be more secure just because people wouldn't be fooled into relying upon a blockchain nobody can actually look at.

    11. Re:It's about time ... by NicknameUnavailable · · Score: 1

      There is not enough information on the blockchain to crack a bitcoin wallet using Quantum methods until after funds have *already been spent*.

      This is just flat out wrong. The security of blockchain transactions comes from the published signatures. No signatures and it's no longer a blockchain. All you have to do is crack the key behind the signature for a given wallet to "own" that wallet and be able to spend it as desired. This is why quantum computers put a hard limit of 2022-2025 (given current growth rates) before Bitcoin is worthless, AND it's why you need to initiate the cutover years before that (it doesn't work as just "upgrading" everyone's client - every single wallet holder has to be able to publish a ~30KB public key signed by their existing signature to convert their wallet to the new system, anyone who doesn't effectively loses everything they have saved up to that point and given the transaction fees involved many wallets don't even contain the funds required to salvage themselves.

    12. Re:It's about time ... by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      There is more than enough information on the blockchain, things like tracking down IP addresses, to find the owner of the wallet and well, basically crack their bones until they crack their crypto wallet for you.

      The collapse of unbacked crypto will not follow normal economic patterns because it is tightly tied to organised crime, money laundering and other criminal activities. In the normal market it will slowly die off and the authorities will become involved and seek to ban it, as it's users start dying off, as a result of the greater concentration of criminal activity in it's trade, as the normal market dries up. More criminals, means more dangerous for holders of unbacked unsecured crypto.

      So the criminals will keep unbacked crypto going, until the fallout from that activity forces it's banning. Energy backed crypto, not going to be a US thing, too late for them.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    13. Re:It's about time ... by hey! · · Score: 1

      Yep. Posting on a phone is a bad habit.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    14. Re:It's about time ... by UnknownSoldier · · Score: 1

      Yup, And nothing of value was lost.

    15. Re:It's about time ... by Kaenneth · · Score: 1

      The public key isn't published until an address spends the money; the Quantum Computer would have to break it in under 10-20 minutes, and get it into a block first.

      That's not gonna be possible for a VERY long time.

    16. Re:It's about time ... by golgotha007 · · Score: 1

      Constantly hard-forking as you are suggesting here is a lot harder to do than you make it sound - haven't you been paying attention? You're basically suggesting centralization which undermines the value that bitcoin inherently has.

    17. Re:It's about time ... by ColaMan · · Score: 2

      Assume the current algorithm was broken and all funds were stolen. The chain itself is the public ledger, rewind to the point of failure, implement to the new stronger (resistant) algorithm, and press the play button.

      You have no idea of how economics work, do you? There is no easy-peasy unwinding of transactions in the real world. It won't be a case of , "And here, right here is where everyone lost their money, we'll wind it back to then." There will be legitimate transactions amongst the fraudulent ones, and people will have already exchanged cryptocoins for goods and services that have now suddenly been unwound, or transferred value out of the currency elsewhere, or made subsequent transactions, etc.

      You can't pause and sort out the fraudulent transactions "somehow" and unwind/play forward again, because the interruption of service and loss of confidence will crash the value as soon as you resume transactions.

      It will be a complete and utter shitshow.

      --

      You are in a twisty maze of processor lines, all alike.
      There is a lot of hype here.
    18. Re: It's about time ... by reanjr · · Score: 1

      And your credit card takes a full day to clear at least. What's your point? Ten minutes sounds better than 24 hours, unless you have an unjustified hatred/jealousy of crypto-holders.

      Go learn how Bitcoin works before making such ignorant statements.

    19. Re: It's about time ... by reanjr · · Score: 1

      There are already solutions to that problem, but Bitcoin tends towards protocol stability. There is little reason to doubt this issue will be completely resolved by the time quantum comuters become powerful enough to "break" the protocol.

    20. Re:It's about time ... by Cederic · · Score: 1

      You all talk as if the laws of mathematics are going to be rewritten

      No, they talk as though the current level of computer cryptography and its reliance on the computational difficult of factoring arbitrary large primes is going to break when that factoring ceases to be 'difficult'.

      it's a bummer to know that I'm surrounded by so many dummies on this site

      Ah, that old classic. The age-old riposte: Look in a mirror.

    21. Re: It's about time ... by Type44Q · · Score: 1

      Real currencies have the backing of material goods

      That doesn't even make sense; if it did, there'd be government warehouses full of material goods 'backing the dollar' (in fact nothing physical - except force -has backed the dollar since '72).

    22. Re:It's about time ... by NicknameUnavailable · · Score: 1

      When a quantum computer can run Shor's algorithm it can be broken in well under a minute - that's the whole point.

    23. Re: It's about time ... by NicknameUnavailable · · Score: 1

      Yes, there's a resolution. It involves switching everyone over to 30KB+ signatures prior to the time quantum computers come, so starting around 2019 at the latest. The issue is that those signature sizes result in an unmanageable blockchain size - by the time the quantum computers arrive the notion of a blockchain will already be worthless because nobody will actually be able to verify anything on it due to the size of the thing and storage space required to do so.

    24. Re:It's about time ... by Lord_Jeremy · · Score: 1

      Warren Buffett's simple advice is to invest in index funds. Keeps the fees low and it's great for long-term. The best thing for the average person to do is go to a local financial management office and open an IRA.

    25. Re: It's about time ... by DaveHowe · · Score: 1

      Force is enough though; businesses across the US are obliged to accept it, and heaven help any country that threatens the petrodollar....

      --
      -=DaveHowe=-
  2. Bubbles and Fads. by Zorro · · Score: 4, Funny

    Good thing Tulips and Beanie Babys are safe investments....

    1. Re: Bubbles and Fads. by reanjr · · Score: 2

      Yeah, because 17th century futures contracts that bubbled for a season before complete collapse is exactly like a 21st century distributed payment network which has been growing for a decade.

    2. Re: Bubbles and Fads. by reanjr · · Score: 1

      The fact that you can't see that also applies to the stock market is pretty telling.

  3. A fool and his money... by nwaack · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I know it's an overused saying but it applies perfectly here.

    1. Re:A fool and his money... by pr0t0 · · Score: 2

      Ha, that's what you think! The $20 in Doge I bought is finally going to be at the same level as the big boys! Champagne wishes and caviar dreams, suckers!

      --
      I'm sorry, but your opinion seems to be wrong.
  4. Miners need to be seized by xack · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Seriously, governments should make it illegal to blatantly waste electricity. People cry about net neutrality, but electricity neutrality should be discussed too. In any other industry, wasting resources for no reason but to print electronic tokens would be cracked down on. It's is coming up to the 10th anniversary of the bailouts of the financial crisis that was caused by funny money mortgages, we need to arrest the designers of asics for environmental terrorism. I hope 100 years from now when our great grandchildren have to suffer in a climate changed world to ask that why didn't our generation stop the bitminers.

    1. Re: Miners need to be seized by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Satoshi was really a consortium of power companies.

    2. Re: Miners need to be seized by TFlan91 · · Score: 1

      *gasp* It all makes sense now...

    3. Re:Miners need to be seized by religionofpeas · · Score: 2

      Why don't we crack down on people watching sports on TV ?

    4. Re:Miners need to be seized by Anubis+IV · · Score: 1

      In any other industry, wasting resources for no reason but to print electronic tokens would be cracked down on.

      We could require that they shoot other people in a "battle royale" of sorts in order to earn those tokens, at which point their activity would be indistinguishable from the way that tens of millions of other people are already wasting time and electricity in a socially acceptable manner.

    5. Re:Miners need to be seized by Calydor · · Score: 1

      You just outlawed computer games.

      Well done.

      --
      -=This sig has nothing to do with my comment. Move along now=-
    6. Re:Miners need to be seized by Luthair · · Score: 1

      Doesn't Energy Star already do this?

    7. Re:Miners need to be seized by NFN_NLN · · Score: 1

      > Seriously, governments should make it illegal to blatantly waste electricity.

      Are you referring to slashdot servers?

    8. Re:Miners need to be seized by dcollins117 · · Score: 1

      Why don't we crack down on people watching sports on TV ?

      That's what mother-in-laws are for.

    9. Re:Miners need to be seized by war4peace · · Score: 1

      Seriously, governments should make it illegal to blatantly waste electricity.

      Once that train starts, you can't stop it anymore. As a matter of fact, it is not just a train, but a huge railway station.

      First, define "waste electricity". For you, it's cryptominers. For me, it's public street lighting. For others, it would be computers in general. Or TVs. Or pool pumps. Or CERN.
      Then, it expands to "waste". Did you water your lawn? Oh my, you wasted a lot of perfectly good water. To the gallows with you!
      Does your car guzzle more than one gallon per 50 miles? We are providing you with a perfectly fitting dungeon chamber where you'll spend large amounts of time thinking about how you wasted resources.
      Are you heating your house to temperatures more than 10 degrees Celsius above freezing? What a waste of energy! We heard there's a dire shortage of working citizens in Siberian mines, our Russian friends will be more than happy to welcome you there, where water is being served in cubes.

      You're opening a giant can of worms with that statement.

      --
      ...gis sdrawkcab (usually not responding to ACs; don't bother posting as AC)
    10. Re:Miners need to be seized by amorsen · · Score: 1

      Then, it expands to "waste". Did you water your lawn? Oh my, you wasted a lot of perfectly good water. To the gallows with you!

      Already illegal in many jurisdictions during droughts (and why would you water it if there was no drought?)

      Does your car guzzle more than one gallon per 50 miles? We are providing you with a perfectly fitting dungeon chamber where you'll spend large amounts of time thinking about how you wasted resources.

      Car taxes (or "fines" if you prefer that word to make it more like a punishment) based on fuel use exist in multiple countries.

      Are you heating your house to temperatures more than 10 degrees Celsius above freezing?

      Insulation standards are common in countries with cold climates.

      Waste is already illegal in many places. The gulags are nowhere to be seen. I think we'll be OK on that train.

      --
      Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
    11. Re: Miners need to be seized by reanjr · · Score: 1

      You are ignorant of how the electricity consumption of the Bitcoin network works. Feel free to search my old comments for an education, but I've given up trying to explain this to people who are willfully ignorant.

    12. Re: Miners need to be seized by Cederic · · Score: 1

      That is now my favourite quote of the year.

    13. Re:Miners need to be seized by doconnor · · Score: 1

      What about all the doorless fridges and freezers in grocery stores stores?

  5. Always thought about getting in by oldgraybeard · · Score: 1

    5+ years ago I looked at starting to run servers and taking bitcoin in my business but even then it seemed like the train had already left the station. I decided to just stick with my market trading accounts.So that is the direction I stuck with. I just wish online trading accounts were around when I was young. Back then you had to deal through a broker.
    Now I am with the get your popcorn ready crowd. And how about yesterdays regular market drop! Not even talking about bitcoin ;) Lets see how all this works out.

    Just my 2 cents ;)

    1. Re:Always thought about getting in by Nidi62 · · Score: 1

      Now I am with the get your popcorn ready crowd. And how about yesterdays regular market drop! Not even talking about bitcoin ;) Lets see how all this works out. Just my 2 cents ;)

      It's almost like people are starting to realize that exponential growth quarter after quarter isn't realistic or sustainable and that these valuations built on the expectation of constant growth might as well be built on sand.

      --
      The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
    2. Re:Always thought about getting in by Targon · · Score: 1

      You mean like the stock market as a whole, while the overall economy has been stagnant? Growth of the stock market while the economy remains in the toilet should result in a crash at some point.

    3. Re:Always thought about getting in by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      Corporate profits have never been higher. Why shouldn't the stock market? It tracks corporate profits, not the overall economy.

  6. It really is too bad by ERJ · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Let me start with, crypto as an investment is stupid. But, it really is too bad if it fails. It would be nice to have a replacement for cash that has a similar anonymity to cash.

    Look, I'm not looking to do anything illegal or illicit but the situation of today where Visa could conceivably sell my purchase history to Google who would then target advertising to me or be able to provide the number of Snickers bars I ate this past year to health care or insurance providers doesn't sit particularly well with me either. So being able to purchase some groceries, clothes, etc through electronic means but in an anonymous fashion has a certain draw for me.

    1. Re:It really is too bad by AuMatar · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Buy a giftcard or prepaid visa at a physical store with cash.

      --
      I still have more fans than freaks. WTF is wrong with you people?
    2. Re:It really is too bad by DogDude · · Score: 1

      the situation of today where Visa could conceivably sell my purchase history to Google

      It's more than conceivable. This and a lot more is happening today.

      --
      I don't respond to AC's.
    3. Re:It really is too bad by Pinky's+Brain · · Score: 1

      The connection to real currencies exist at the mercy of government, they treated crypto with kid gloves for a while but it was never going to last. Once all the billionaires are out and there's no one lobbying for cryptocurrency it will go the way of e-gold.

      People who pretend cryptocurrency can somehow route around government are deluding themselves. If the EU and the US don't allow banks to cooperate with conversion or transact with any foreign bank which does, cryptocurrency is dead.

    4. Re:It really is too bad by Pinky's+Brain · · Score: 1

      Use Tether or Gemini ... it won't last though, they are essentially e-gold v2.0 and they will go the same route.

    5. Re:It really is too bad by mea2214 · · Score: 1

      Visa could conceivably sell my purchase history to Google

      Worse, it can be sold to insurance companies and credit score companies who use predictive algorithms based upon crackpot theories to evaluate you as a risk. i

    6. Re:It really is too bad by Eravnrekaree · · Score: 1

      Why not simply use cash? Safe, simple, private, secure.

    7. Re:It really is too bad by xpiotr · · Score: 1

      FYI Mastercard already sold your data to Google.
      I am wondering if the EU GPDR data law could help to force Mastercard to reveal what data they have and how they have shared it.

    8. Re:It really is too bad by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      It would be nice to have a replacement for cash that has a similar anonymity to cash.

      Define anonymous. Anonymous in the sense that no one can see what you spend your money on? Or Anonymous in the sense that no one can identify you?

      Cryptocurrencies can't achieve the former.
      Any financial transactions that aren't done in person where all parties are blind folded can't achieve the latter.

    9. Re: It really is too bad by reanjr · · Score: 1

      And pay a 3% premium on everything? No thanks.

    10. Re: It really is too bad by reanjr · · Score: 1

      The anonymity is available, but costs some extra money and time (and may be illegal if you are using it to hide fraud; not sure on that). But the real selling point isn't anonymity as much as it is control. No one can really stop you from using it, even if - for example - you want to send money back home to Iran.

    11. Re: It really is too bad by reanjr · · Score: 1

      Yeah, it's frustrating when the power goes out and the whole Internet gets deleted and we have to re-create it every time...

    12. Re: It really is too bad by reanjr · · Score: 1

      How do I submit my dollar bills through a web form?

    13. Re:It really is too bad by gravewax · · Score: 1

      Crypto currencies give it away for free.

  7. "Brink" by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2

    Meanwhile, daily transaction values were down from more than $3.7 billion to less than $670 million in the same period, Juniper said in the study, The Future of Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin & Altcoin Trends & Challenges 2018-2023. The market as a whole has contracted quickly as well. In the first quarter, cryptocurrency transactions totaled just over $1.4 trillion, compared with less than $1.7 trillion for 2017 as a whole, Juniper said. However, by the second quarter, transaction values had plummeted by 75 percent, with total market capitalization falling to just under $355 billion.

    That sounds like it passed the "brink of an implosion" about 65 percent ago.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  8. About time. by r1348 · · Score: 2

    Maybe all those obnoxious "Youtube economists" will crawl back to their mom's basements...

  9. Re:Check your local dumpsters... by r1348 · · Score: 1

    I got myself a 6-months-old Sapphire RX580 Nitro+ Special Edition for 180€ on eBay a month ago. Some French dude was selling like 50 of them.

  10. Re:Check your local dumpsters... by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2

    There might be bags of good used video cards tossed after this all goes bust.

    You laugh, but I bought a pair of nice GeForce 1080 Ti's from a day trader who thought he was going to mine bitcoin and then decided that there was no such thing as free money. I see him sitting at the Starbucks with his Macbook, wheeling and dealing. Meanwhile, I've got a nice gaming card in my rig and a second one sitting here in case the other one blows up.

    I wonder how his move back to the stock market is going.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  11. Short Sighted by Doc+Right · · Score: 2, Interesting

    So some folks with more dollars than sense dumped a bunch of money into the cryptocurrency market trying to make a quick buck. Some won, some lost. It's been long accepted that most of the alt-coins available today will eventually disappear, leaving only the strongest and most useful cryptocurrencies. Speculation is what drove the market up to unsustainable levels. I believe it has come back down where it belongs, if not a bit lower, against the U.S. Dollar. But remember, we're talking about currencies, not stocks. People need to get out of the investment mentality and see the technology for what it is: Digital CASH. Blockchain will never die. Cryptocurrency as a whole will never fail. The genie is already out of the bottle. It just might take a little time for people to change their mentality about it.

  12. Cryptocurrencies are not going anywhere by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Lets compare a real currency, with a cryptocurrency:

    1: A government can print all they want for a real currency. A cryptocurrency like Bitcoin only has "x" amount of currency, and only will get less. This makes your stake in the currency more valuable as time progresses, no matter how much is mined.
    2: Cryptocurrencies are a secure means of exchange. Once the transaction hits the blockchain and is verified, it is done. No chargebacks, no counterfeit paper money, no bounced checks. You get paid and stay paid.
    3: Cryptocurrencies are far better for ensuring transactions happen. I set up a multisig transaction with an escrow agent and the person I am buying from. The other party ships me a widget. I check if the widget is OK, say all is good, escrow agent allows the transaction to go through. Everyone is happy. Yes, the escrow agent could collude with one of the other side, but that is a lot less of an issue than the massive fraud committed today in general.
    4: Cryptocurrencies can be stored securely. Even if a place gets raided, the wallet will be secure. I can add other mechanisms as well, such as paper wallets, x out of y key retrieval, and even duress codes which can lock a wallet for a certain amount of time.
    5: Cryptocurrencies only get more useful as time progresses. Bitcoin's price has stabilized, and in a few years, will be the gold standard for long term currency saving, and unlike the dollar, it is immune to inflation.

    Someone show me the disadvantage of cryptocurrencies, other than that clueless people fail to understand them?

    1. Re:Cryptocurrencies are not going anywhere by geoskd · · Score: 5, Informative

      Ok, I'll have a go:

      1: There is nothing intrinsic to crypto that makes it go up. If demand (i.e. utilization) is not growing as fast as new coins are mined, then the value drops. This is even more pronounced when the utilization growth goes negative. See yesterday, and last month, and this whole year. BTC is currently worth less than half what it was last year, and has the potential to drop all the way to zero without major changes to the world we live in. USD by contrast would only be capable of dropping to zero by way of the apocalypse.

      2: They are only as secure as the software that is used to handle it. Software in general is notoriously insecure. Also see 51% attack.

      3: You can achieve this same effect using a brokerage service, of which there are millions in every flavour you could want. The easiest to use variants are Credit Cards which are accepted almost universally. Visa handles 150M transactions per day, or approximately 3 orders of magnitude more than bitcoin, and in spite of that high load, they handle individual transactions in seconds. Nothing about cryptocurrency is inherently faster, better or safer.

      4: Oh Really?

      5: Only if they are universally accepted. If people stop accepting them, then they loose utility, and less people will be inclined to use them, which makes them even less useful. This is known as a death spiral, and the research cited in this story seems to indicate that bitcoin is headed in exactly that direction. This phenomenon is not unique to cryptocurrency, and is one of the reasons that AmEx plays dirty pool to force retailers to keep accepting their cards.

      --
      I wish I had a good sig, but all the good ones are copyrighted
    2. Re: Cryptocurrencies are not going anywhere by reanjr · · Score: 1

      Plenty of currencies are volatile. But if the volatility of Bitcoin - for example - is part of a long-term upward trend, then it serves as a much better currency than many national currencies.

      Bitcoin isn't going to compete with the USD; it competes with all the flaky currencies of the third world, and in that competition, it does pretty well as a currency.

    3. Re: Cryptocurrencies are not going anywhere by reanjr · · Score: 1

      That's not true. If the Chinese government and the NSA decided they wanted to kill it, they could probably still do it. But it would be expensive af.

  13. So the banking industry and governemnts by Archfeld · · Score: 1

    would have you believe. When it proved to be beyond big businesses ability to control the only thought that occurred to them was that they be destroyed. They can't have a means of monetary movement or compensation beyond their grasp and control. Crypto currency will be valuable for brief quick transfers and compensation, but probably never stable enough for big business to feel comfortable dumping funds into and wholesale raping, but it could always be a quick and dirty way to transfer/launder money with big brother getting involved.

    --
    errr....umm...*whooosh* *whoosh* Is this thing on ?
    1. Re:So the banking industry and governemnts by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 1

      When it proved to be beyond big businesses ability to control

      That's cute. IBM and Goldman are the big winners (directly) on cryptocurrenicies, with nVidia and other hardware providers making bank as well. It wasn't a big "fuck you" to business, it was an opportunity for them. I mean, the original people were outsiders, but in the past 5 years...?

      --
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  14. who actually uses Crypto??? by bkmoore · · Score: 1

    Who actually uses crypto to make everyday purchases such as toilet paper, food, gasoline, etc., not just for impulse buying Lamborghinis or South Bay real estate. Imho, it's not really a "currency" unless it fulfills the same role as cash, not just in theory, but also in practice.

    1. Re:who actually uses Crypto??? by cshark · · Score: 1

      There are several ways to do it. But with the volatility of bitcoin at any given moment, I wouldn't advise using any of them.

      --

      This signature has Super Cow Powers

    2. Re:who actually uses Crypto??? by ArchieBunker · · Score: 1

      Who actually uses stocks to make everyday purchases such as toilet paper, food, gasoline, etc., not just for impulse buying Lamborghinis or South Bay real estate? Same argument.

      --
      Only the State obtains its revenue by coercion. - Murray Rothbard
    3. Re:who actually uses Crypto??? by goose-incarnated · · Score: 1

      Who actually uses stocks to make everyday purchases such as toilet paper, food, gasoline, etc., not just for impulse buying Lamborghinis or South Bay real estate? Same argument.

      You appear to be in violent agreement that BTC isn't a currency. I'm not sure that that is waht you intended.

      --
      I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
    4. Re:who actually uses Crypto??? by ArchieBunker · · Score: 1

      Yes it's a currency but the "nerds" around here don't see that money is made by treating them as stocks. The buy and hold days are long gone.

      --
      Only the State obtains its revenue by coercion. - Murray Rothbard
    5. Re: who actually uses Crypto??? by reanjr · · Score: 1

      Who knows? Maybe lots. You can get a debit card that spends Bitcoin, but works over any standard credit/debit network. It's a solid stratey for Bitcoin belivers to put most of their money into Bitcoin until they need it. So, it's hard to say how much is used for everyday transaction, as these transactions are generally off-chain.

  15. This needs to be put in terms we can understand by istartedi · · Score: 1

    How many delicious 16 oz. steaks have been wasted on crypto-mining?

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    For all intensive purposes, "whom" is no longer a word. That begs the question, "who cares"?
  16. FINALLY!!!! by bev_tech_rob · · Score: 1

    Maybe now I can afford a new graphics card for my gaming PC!

    --
    You're messin' with my Zen Thing, man.....
  17. Nothing to see here. by cshark · · Score: 2

    They talk about the market imploding and correcting itself as though that's a bad thing. This happens with Bitcoin every couple of years. The system and the market always comes out stronger at the end of the cycle. This isn't news.

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    This signature has Super Cow Powers

    1. Re: Nothing to see here. by reanjr · · Score: 1

      There's no such thing as a gold market?

  18. Re:But... by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 1

    Your Dogecoins will always be okay. The trade ratio of one Dogecoin to one Dogecoin is rock-solid.

    --
    #DeleteFacebook
  19. I'm paying for by ArchieBunker · · Score: 1

    I'm paying for the electricity. Who are you to tell me what I can do with it?

    --
    Only the State obtains its revenue by coercion. - Murray Rothbard
  20. It won't go away completely by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    unless the major gov'ts legalize drugs and crack down on the money laundering. Until then it's got a floor from the utility of using it to buy illegal services.

    --
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    1. Re:It won't go away completely by feedayeen · · Score: 1

      A drug seller doesn't value Bitcoins, they can't pay their rent with it and someone down the line needs to pay taxes with boring old fiat currency. Someone has to facilitate the transaction between fiat to bitcoin and back to fiat. That person is your weak point which can be targeted by governments.

      If cryptocurrency's entire utility is reduced to money laundering, tax evasion, and similar illegal activities, it is in the governments' interest to eliminate it. Any business operating or transferring financial assets into our out of their borders needs to be heavily regulated to ensure compliance with local laws or declared illegal. That law would relatively easily pass in country with gambling, drug, or finance laws which represents almost the entire world. Those exchanges would be forced to move to smaller and less developed countries. Now we need a legal way to get money from good ol' USA into Timbuktu legally. 2 more middlemen are born to handle either end of the exchange and I'm thinking that it'll be easier to just walk over to the sketchy part of town with a 50 in cash before submitting my credit card number to that sketchy website.

  21. If it makes you feel better they can't do that by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    they know where you shop but not what you bought. Since most Snickers bars (and junk food in general) are bought at grocery & convenience stores that information isn't terribly useful. Retailers know better than to give up that data to anyone, let alone payment companies.

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  22. Bitcoin is dying by mamba-mamba · · Score: 1

    It is official; Netcraft now confirms: *BTC is dying

    One more crippling bombshell hit the already beleaguered *BTC community when IDC confirmed that *BTC market share has dropped yet again, now down to less than a fraction of 1 percent of all servers. Coming close on the heels of a recent Netcraft survey which plainly states that *BTC has lost more market share, this news serves to reinforce what we've known all along. *BTC is collapsing in complete disarray, as fittingly exemplified by failing dead last in the recent Sys Admin comprehensive networking test.

    You don't need to be a Kreskin to predict *BTC's future. The hand writing is on the wall: *BTC faces a bleak future. In fact there won't be any future at all for *BTC because *BTC is dying. Things are looking very bad for *BTC. As many of us are already aware, *BTC continues to lose market share. Red ink flows like a river of blood...

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  23. Re: Market overvalued currently, few real transact by reanjr · · Score: 1

    There's little in the way of gold-denominated transaction either, outside of selling back and forth. Not sure if your intention was to liken Bitcoin to the best solid investment of the last 2,000 years...

  24. Re: Yeah, OK... by reanjr · · Score: 1

    Funny. Everyone I know who bought Bitcoin has made a profit.

  25. Re: It's not a fiat currency by reanjr · · Score: 1

    Your knowledge of Bitcoin might only be three years old, but Bitcoin has already cruised by its tenth anniversary.

  26. Re: Bitcoin != Cryptocurrency by reanjr · · Score: 1

    LOL! So, you're holding lots of losing BCH and hope it someday recovers?

  27. Re: It was an all time high by reanjr · · Score: 1

    +7 Insightful.

  28. Again? by SinisterEVIL · · Score: 2

    Wow, since 2012 I've heard this roughly 1337 times. It must be true this time......

  29. Re: It's not a fiat currency by OutOnARock · · Score: 1

    He said nothing about how long Bitcoin has existed.

    We are 3 years into his 10 year window.

    You sir are either an idiot or a pedantic shrill, care to weigh in?

  30. Re: It's not a fiat currency by reanjr · · Score: 1

    Maybe you should be more pedantic so you'd understand what the word "might" means.

    And try to acquire some critical thinking skills while you're at it to realize I was pointing out a decade of longevity to counter the baseless prognostication in the GP.