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Debris From India's Anti-Satellite Test Poses Threat To ISS, Says NASA (npr.org)
When India blew apart one of its satellites orbiting Earth last week, it created hundreds of pieces of orbital debris, and some of those pieces are large enough and high enough to pose a potential threat to the International Space Station, NASA says. "That is a terrible, terrible thing to create an event that sends debris in an apogee that goes above the International Space Station," NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine said, referring to the debris' highest point in orbit. "And that kind of activity is not compatible with the future of human space flight that we need to see happen." NPR reports: In calculating the Indian test's potential impact last week, he said NASA determined that the risk of small debris hitting the space station was increased by 44 percent over a period of 10 days. "It's unacceptable, and NASA needs to be very clear about what its impact to us is," Bridenstine said, discussing space debris and India's anti-satellite test at a town hall event Monday.
As he spoke about the heightened risk, the NASA administrator also emphasized that both the space station and the astronauts aboard it are safe. The station can be maneuvered out of harm's way if needed, he added. But another danger, he said, is that "when one country does it, then other countries feel like they have to do it, as well." "The good thing is, it's low enough in Earth orbit that over time, this will all dissipate," Bridenstine said on Monday. Those pieces are expected to burn up as they re-enter Earth's atmosphere. India's intercept of its own satellite created 400 pieces of orbital debris, Bridenstine said. "What we are tracking right now -- objects big enough to track, we're talking about 10 centimeters [4 inches] or bigger -- about 60 pieces have been tracked," he said. "Of those 60, we know that 24 of them are going above the apogee of the International Space Station."
As he spoke about the heightened risk, the NASA administrator also emphasized that both the space station and the astronauts aboard it are safe. The station can be maneuvered out of harm's way if needed, he added. But another danger, he said, is that "when one country does it, then other countries feel like they have to do it, as well." "The good thing is, it's low enough in Earth orbit that over time, this will all dissipate," Bridenstine said on Monday. Those pieces are expected to burn up as they re-enter Earth's atmosphere. India's intercept of its own satellite created 400 pieces of orbital debris, Bridenstine said. "What we are tracking right now -- objects big enough to track, we're talking about 10 centimeters [4 inches] or bigger -- about 60 pieces have been tracked," he said. "Of those 60, we know that 24 of them are going above the apogee of the International Space Station."
Perhaps it should be made compulsory for anyone working in the space sector.
The Indians have a problem (putting it extremely lightly) with pollution, garbage, littering, and all sorts of fun, unsanitary stuff on their streets and even in their most holy river -- in their own country. Did anyone think they'd actually respect the rest of the planet? Or even space?
44% larger is the number I've been seeing for the extra risk.
So, what's the baseline risk? 0.01% chance of being hit any given year? 44% larger then becomes 0.0144% chance of being hit with the debris of that satellite. Hardly a significant risk, really....
"I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
India sent a message loud and clear: we will do this, and we don't care if it causes space junk. I hope everyone got the message. The US State Department is very big on "sending messages" with its actions. Let's see how they like being on the receiving end for once. I think it'll be very educational for them to attend another country's lesson instead of being the one dishing it out.
Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
And does anyone have a public list of TLEs for the debris cloud? Or at least a list of apogees and perigees?
India is being called out or this *now* because they have only just joined the 'blowing satellites up' club. Meanwhile America (among others) developed this tech back in the 1950s and developed their own test program that deposited a fair chunk of space debris as a result (Weapon System WS-199A).
Thank you, cadre Ping. Your social credit score just earned two points!
The solution is to scale down. OK, so they shot up a missile the blew up a satellite and made a bunch of junk. So now, send up a bunch of smaller missiles to blow up the bits of junk. Then send a bigger batch of smaller still missiles to blow up the now smaller junk. Rinse repeat until no problem.
Wanna buy a shirt?
https://www.redbubble.com/people/stealthfinger/shop?asc=u
Can just imagine NASA receiving a call from Bangalore after the ISS gets hit... 'hello, we understand you have been in an accident that was not your fault?'
Says someone who doesn't appreciate the technology they use regularly that resulted from space exploration.
https://spinoff.nasa.gov/Spinoff2008/tech_benefits.html
Maybe I am a bit naive to even suggest this, but it seems to me that now would be an appropriate time for the nations of the world to enter into a treaty specifically designed to avoid one-or-more jackasses from ruining space access for the entire human race. I would call it the Kessler Avoidance Treaty (KAT).
It is, generally, a set of rules to avoid a tragedy of the (space) commons - a general agreement not to shit all over the near-Earth environment (100 km to, say, 600 km). Among its provisions would be:
* A blanket ban on anti-satellite missiles or other ways of destroying satellites that create debris clouds. This includes not only the deployment of such weapons, but also their development and testing.
* Require whoever launches a rocket to ensure that all orbital-velocity, non-payload masses (e.g., upper stages, payload fairings, etc.) have a built in method to guarantee de-orbiting within, say, three months. (I suppose parking in a higher orbit, like 5000 km, would also be acceptable.)
* Active payloads (i.e., satellites) must have a documented plan for end-of-life that ensures de-orbiting within, say, 1 year after end-of-service.
* A service fee attached to all orbital launches (including those that pass through near-Earth to other orbits, like geosynchronous) to fund the development and eventual deployment of measures to remove debris and other hazards from the near-Earth environment. This could be lasers, satellites that tether to and de-orbit other satellites, and who knows what else. The service fee would be based on rocket gross weight at liftoff (although probably on a logarithmic, rather than linear scale).
* The development of international design standards for satellite manufacturers and launch providers to reduce small fragmentary debris: paint chips, frangible bolts, etc.)
Yup, this will make space launches a bit more expensive: it will slightly lower the payload that a particular rocket can deliver. I call that chump change compared to the catastrophic cost of a full-blown Kessler syndrome, which would wipe out >$100B of already-launched assets, degrade the $Trillions of annual economic activity that utilizes space services, endanger the lives of humans in space, and render access-to-space difficult or impossible for a generation.
There is plenty of precedent for humans creating and enforcing treaties against generally-bad behavior. The treaties banning atmospheric nuclear weapons tests are one good example. The Montreal Protocol for eliminating CFCs is another. These are imperfect measures, certainly, and not universal ratified. But they have gotten most of the major players on the same page, and drastically reduced the harm that could otherwise have happened. It also provides a moral framework for punishing non-ratifiers.
Right now is the best time to implement this kind of treaty. (Well, really, 5-10 years ago.) Humanity is drastically lowering the barriers to accessing space, and so we're on the cusp of a huge surge of launches. We ought to agree upon the rules now before there are 100 new players. At the same time, we are ever-more dependent on using orbiting satellites for all manner of daily activities, and there are untold riches still to be reaped.
I am, however, dreadfully pessimistic about the chances of such a treaty coming about under (present) US leadership. We have the most to gain and the most to lose. It would also be a chance to reassert some global leadership against strategic rivals such as China and Russia. But our present executive demonstrates no particular strategic thinking, and I'm sure this kind of topic and its rational solution aren't on his radar.
The endangered American IT professional. The best in the world. But India is cheaper!!!
Corporatism != Free Market
I wish I could say I'm surprised. India is a country where even in major cities you can see people literally squat and shit in the street. It isn't hard to understand why they have no problem with metaphorically taking a dump right on the doorstep of humanity's gateway to space.
I've calculated my velocity with such exquisite precision that I have no idea where I am.
No, India is being called out for this because they did it when there are people (and other satellites) to be put in danger.
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so the UN is american "bullying" in disguise ? lol....
This is bullshit. If it would be merely or even mostly just authoritarianism then they wouldn't try take your private property nor impose their morality on you. They would leave you mostly alone if you don't challenge the oligarchy, but alas that is not what happend.
Does your second sentence contradict your first, or does the first contradict the second ?
its one thing to have target practise in an empty field back in the 1950's, but now that old field is now a thriving suburb full of houses.
Are you saying that now that US has already converted space into a landfill, India shouldn't throw a banana peel in it?
No, they are called out for doing something stupid and irresponsible.
The ocean nutters conveniently forget about scurvy. Even our shore-hugging sailors are running into long term effects of scurvy. I can see the advert for the India mission: Come see India in person today, enjoy your teeth falling out for the rest of your life...sign up NOW!!!
With all the stupid shit my country has been doing in the commons lately, I'm just glad that it's somebody else's turn to be "that guy"--even if it's for just a minute.
Not posting AC. I'll own it. Not that it'll help.
"Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." - Philip K. Dick
A AC & a damn lair, what a combo.
No, they just have to be cheaper.
Starting to wonder how to force the internet-genie back into the bottle so that anonymous idiots have to communicate via newsletters again...
More like its a Superfund site due to all the leftover shells and you are cribbing about someone doing some artillery practice on the old range.
**Life is too short to be serious**
If their stupid stunt ends up destroying the ISS and / or requires its abandonment due to their incompetence.
NORAD can't tell you how small an object they can actually track, or how many of them. What they have actually disclosed is probably only the tip of the iceberg.
Bruce Perens.
gee, citation please? Or are you just one of the many that enjoy denigrating others?
"Governments have been dominated by the corporate entities and citizens have ceased to matter in public policy" true in
While other nations like the US and Russia have done this in the past, we have learned a lot over the years and dont do it again. We made those mistakes and now nobody else should have to repeat them. There are treaties and best practices in place that is supposed to mitigate the issue of orbital debris. Satellites in a low enough orbit are now supposed to deorbit, satellites too high for that are supposed to boost themselves into a graveyard orbit out of the way. First China and now India have shown their hubris by violating these norms and creating debris with their hamfisted attempts to wear big boy pants. China is an even worse example because they aren't even good stewards of their own trash. It was last year we were worried about what their derelict space station would crash into after they let it reenter.
And it's so easy to sit back and say the US government are hypocrites and point at skylab and strfish prime. But that is about as valid an argument as a 16 year old calling his dad a hypocrite for saying he cant smoke. Just because someone made stupid decisions in the past does not invalidate their position. I would also argue that Star Fish was a case of nobody knew it would knock out all of those satellites, not to mention it knocked out nobodies but our own and space was still strictly the playground of government projects and not the massive commercial sector it is today. The only people they wronged by launching that nuke were themselves. As for skylab, that was never intended to reenter. That one is a failure of bureaucracy in not getting the STS online fast enough as planned.
With this missile though, India not only has past examples to go off of but the US has also demonstrated the right way to do these things. As the last time they shot a satellite down, it was done in such as way that it did not create extra debris. They intended to flex their muscles and show everyone their might. What they really did was demonstrate how they have no idea what they are doing. Merely children playing with toys.
The "old shells" reentered the atmosphere ages ago.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/s...
An Indian-American Hindu committed to non-violent thought/speech/action alarmed by the global explosion of radical Islam
https://www.google.com/amp/s/s...
An Indian-American Hindu committed to non-violent thought/speech/action alarmed by the global explosion of radical Islam