The the analysis you published in infoworld has some fundamental problems:
In terms of your readers, the figure to look at isn't gross wages, but _disposable income_ ( say after taxes, insurance, housing, transportation). Rising salaries may just indicate movement of jobs from lower cost areas like Oregon to higher cost areas like New York City.
Your analysis doesn't take into account the fact of the predatory, corporate sponsored immigration policy- visa programs like H-1b/L-1 with little purpose other than to reduce the disposable wages of IT workers. This article shows how this works for the economy as a whole. The H-1b/L-1 programs are still large compared to the overall pool of IT workers--and have a much larger impact than outsourcing at this point.
This is kind of amusing idea-someone using a virus/worm to provide _benefits_ rather than harm. Yes, the idea _is_ a bit intrusive. Still, would the FBI put out resources for someone that _fixed_ a bunch of major problems? Would folks bother removing such a worm?
I wonder what the free wifi map would look like if someone pulled this off? I can imagine a bunch of folks would just leave the mods in their hardware-and the results might include some serious adjustments for various companies that would now have to complete with free broadband.
There _are_ various forecasting techniques that can be used to estimate the probability of the civilization changing events Joy is talking about(specific techniques include the Delphi Method-popular in military think tanks- and Market based techniques like insurance companies have used for centuries) What bugs me is that Joy hasn't bothered to research the use of these techniques to the best of my knowledge-instead he's just pulling numbers out of some dark, warm smelly place.
Joy has enough money that he can do any dang thing he wants-enough money that he could go to Russia and hire a pretty decent research team all with his own money--all without risking his capital(i.e. he could just run off the interest of his investments). I don't see Joy as putting his money where his mouth is. If the world may be coming to an end, and if someone really believes it, it would be prudent to invest considerably in averting that possibility.
When I look at Joy's actions, it seems to me like he can't imagine a world in which money doesn't mean more than it does today. That shows a striking lack of imagination in considering what a civilization changing event might mean.
I'd like to be wrong here. I really looked up to Joy when I worked at Sun-the lack of real leadership here is kind of sad though.
This was a very good post. I think the poster is right that Jscript is the right environment for client side development-and the browser deployments enable a lot to be done in this respect.
My sense is that there is life to Javascript beyond the browser. Right now, Javascript is one of a very few languages that has decent suppot both on the Java VM _and_.NET--so basically if you have a manager that just has to do stuff the.Net way--you can with Jscript.net. Are there really compelling features that C# has that Jscript doesn't? I have yet to see them personally. I've done a little server side Javascript on Microsoft platforms-it sure was better than VBScript-and my experience with Java.
I can imagine Javascript/Ecmascript/Jscript seriously taking over the world. Most of the open source code in existance today is C. Folks may use the g++ compiler, but in many cases what they are writing is really closer to C stylistically than C++. Sun has promoted Java as the successor to C++(never mind the fact that Java can't do some of the really small systems stuff C can). Microsoft and Sun appear to be ready to beat themselves to a bloody pulp in a language/vm war.
The above poster may be very right. This really may be the opportunity to move things forward more than they could be otherwise. Perhaps Java _and_ C# really ought to just go the way of Cobol. C/C++ have had the advantage of ANSI standardization-Jscript/Jscript have the EMCA/W3 standards--which mean a lot in larger organizations that have code that lives on a long time.
Seriousl Academics are proposing fueling the entire US using biodiesal from algae. Folks like Harry Braun are proposing wind-based power production. Both would appear cheaper than spending hundreds of Billions in the Middle East on wars and foreign aid.
The problem is that shill are _supposed_ to be believable-in Sharp's case, that really can't be the case. What I _can_ believe is that the strategy is to attempt to de-moralize the Open Source community by showing that they can get prominent figures in their community to degrade themselves by throwing money at them(imagine if someone had gotten Mother Theresa to pose in Playboy or Hustler--not that it would by attractive, but it would have shown that money could get someone to break the taboos of the organization they had devoted their life to).
I'm not sure if the Microsoft management can really imagine a community organized around anything other than accumulation of money-they really believe that is all there is to the world. History is full of examples of decadent financial empires that get militarily overrun by forces they didn't take . IMHO the eventual destiny of Microsoft is to encounter software that simple subsumes and contains them. Linux has been an important first step. Xen,Bocks,Plex86,Wine are other important steps here--combined with Linux/BSD they give Windows much needed adult supervision. I suspect the stuff that Chuck Moore is doing with ColorForth and his hardware designs could eventually obsolesce both Intel and Microsoft.
That's the problem. Virtually all US executives _are_ jokes-which is a big part of the reason why US industry is a joke despite having one of the world's most highly skilled work forces.
I don't think that was always the case. Folks like Ford,Hughes and Carnegie-whatever their failings weren't nearly as much of hypocrites as the current crowd appears to be.
Seriously, talking to someone like sharp is like talking to a dollar bill-or a stock market. The only thing you can count on them to do is to say things in an attempt to enrich themselves. The thing that is scary: Sharp may actually believe his own material. He really may have believed what he said when he was at Red Hat--and changed those beliefs/judgements when he went to Micro$oft.
I can see how pushing Linux actually makes sense for IBM. IBM has lost a _lot_ by being in the number two spot in terms of profit/stock value. Simply cutting Microsoft down would mean that IBM could regain some of the monopoly rent that goes to whateover computer company is "the biggest". I don't think that Microsoft can at this point do anything similar to IBM--a lot of IBM's strength now is related to their position as a large, service organization that can field folks in numbers/locations other organizations have trouble matching. I have a bit of trouble with the idea of HP/Dell being the big "Linux vendors" long term--both of these companies have some serious quality issues IMHO with their products compared to IBM or Toshiba. What IBM needs to do here IMHO is more agressively invest in smaller, innovative companies than Microsoft can/does(and utilize the stength of the IBM research organization to spot serious innovation).
I was involved as a DBA in the first database integration for Falcon, which eventually became the world's most popular credit card fraud detection system. According the the fraud analysts that I worked with, the lion's share of counterfeit credit cards were manufactured in China. This is the type of business that takes a fair amount of operational support-you need to create factories and the kind of things that it is impossible to do without the local authorities knowing something is up. What this has in common with spam: in both cases these are profitable businesses that require protection from the authorities to stay in--and that protection can be bought for a reasonable price.
Ultimately, I think we'll need smarter spam filters. That isn't too different than what we were doing at HNC. IF the letter is from someone you don't know and talks about Human growth hormone or altering of bodily parts, it is a pretty good bet it is spam. It is really just a matter of good pattern recognition.
Contributing Factors to the high price of gasoline
on
Out of Gas
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· Score: 1
The war in the middle east is paid out of general governmental revenues. Before the current war, the US squandered 1.2 Trillion in the Middle East. If these costs were factored in, Middle Eastern oil would be seen as VERY expensive. What ought to happen is that the US should start taxing gasoline significantly--and reduce taxes on the general population. US produced goods and services would become less expensive-particularly if they were produced in areas that aren't terribly oil dependent. These wasteful expenditures in the middle east are subsidization of a failed technological policy. The US _can_ be energy independent and at peace with the rest of the world--but there is a need for some serious leadership and innovation.
My understanding is that one of the reasons for the proposed Chinese Lunar mission was to lay the groundwork to mine Helium-3. It seems a bit strange to me that when oil prices are at a very high point, the Chinese government would be moving resources away from energy related projects.
It appears that energy is a major factor that is pacing Chinese economic development. Have the Chinese established some other energy sources through R&D(say some results in some other form of hot fusion) or diplomatic arrangements(i.e. a deal with the Russians or Islamic oil exporters)?
Commercial broadcasters haven't really done much for the spectrum they were given. IMHO there should be substantial taxes on commercial use of spectrum. Theoretically, it would seem that Wi-Fi could deliver much more content than is now done with the spectrum the broadcasters are using. Perhaps we ought to look at completely eliminating the television spectrum and replacing it with Wi-Fi.
I can imagine the world-wide movement towards Linux will push lots of folks into running Linux _alongside Windows_(say using VMware or the free alternative Xen). However, there is an alternative to movement to Linux: serious innovation
Linux is cheaper than Windows-no doubt about it. However, is Linux really as good an os as there could be? Neither Windows nor Linux are really what folks need in areas like embedded systems or robotics. Linux and Windows both have their roots in rather ancient operating systems(i.e. VMS and Unix), as Chuck Moore, inventor of forth points out, occaisionally it is time for a fresh start.
Xen allows a computer to run both Windows and Linux at the same time(similar to VM on mainframes. It has turned out to be quite a bit harder than we anticipated early on to get Wine running well than originally anticipated due to the host of undocumented features Microsoft uses. Xen on the other hand appears to have the blessing of Microsoft(at least for the time being). I suspect that Xen will be out first-and will mean that folks that have a machine with Windows already on it will be able to continue using Windows-with badly needed adult supervision. If properly handled, the net effect would be the same: You'd be able to run windows programs from Linux and Linux programs from Windows(both running on the same machine). IMHO getting the installation really down right will be important here--but I think that Xen really does have the potential to get a much bigger chunk of existing windows users also running Xen.
I have a bosses that are old mainframe hacker-they really liked Xen when it was explained to them. I suspect this will catch on.
Makes me think Chuck Moore has been right all alone. The real future is smaller computers that are very low power, simple and ubiquitous. Every day, Microsoft reminds me more and more of the IBM of my youth.
One major factor in the decline of scientific activity in the US have been visa programs that preferentially give immigration rights to people with minimal technical or scientific skills. The folks that are the top of their class in scientific training aren't necessarily those that make major scientific contributions. Albert Einstein worked as a patent clerk--in part because better jobs were hard to come by. Would he had made similar scientific contributions if he had to work as an unskilled laborer to make ends meet?
The problem here is that when H-1b/L-1 visas were expanded, there were no protections to prevent those programs from displacing US citizens--and those programs have specifically displaced those with a scientific or technical inclination. What that means is that if you can do other kinds of work, you may have a strong incentive to do so.
As someone that actually worked on an investigation of an extremely wealthy person(Bill Griffin, CEO of Riscorp)IMHO virtually _any_ wealthy person can be convicted of _something_ if there is sufficient motivation to open an investigation. I personally support the conviction of Ms. Stewart--but I think the reason why that investigatino proceeded was the motivation and political ineptness of Ms. Stewart rather than the degree of the actual wrongdoing. Likewise, Mr. Gates' anti-trust problems went away when he and lots of his employees made the "right" donations. In the present climate, I don't think there is motivation to mount an appropriate investigation.
I supported Wine development in a small way early on when I was director of the Syntropy Institute. I think one of the most important things we've learned from Wine Development is that catching up with a complex closed source project is _hard_. My guess is that Xen will be the first Open Source product to really allow Windows and Linux to coexist well. IMHO it is worthwhile for Wine to be fully developed-but in the meantime, Xen provides a solution that is applicable for folks that already have a Windows license. Xen appears to have Microsoft's blessing. The release of Xen will mean there is no reason not to have Linux on any Windows machine-you'll be able to give Windows badly needed adult supervision with no more ill effects other than use of a bit of disk space and cpu cycles.
Outsourcing and predatory immigration policies like H-1b have their roots in corporate welfare. Even pro-business, pro-immigration economists like Nobel prize winner Milton Friedman call the 1998-2000 expansion of H-1b a "subsidy". I well know the experience of having my congressman, Brian Baird, supported my having an extended period of unemployment on a basis of principle-he has been a strong supporter of H-1b--even though his district has some of the worse unemployment in the nation(hint: Microsoft-a company not in his district is his biggest financial supporter).
The original constitutional reason for copyrights and patents was to support "THE PROGRESS OF SCIENCE AND USEFUL ARTS"--not to protect the creation of what the great Ralph Nader calls "violent corporate sponsored pornography".
I don't opposed government subsidies of "science and the useful arts"--if done on a basis that is fair and democratic --promoting technological development that creates the kind of advancements and culture much of the population wants. What Hollywood wants goes beyond free speech, or subsized technical advancements, Hollywood wants active government support of privately owned, corporate managed social control mechanisms. Given the fact that since protection of these mechanisms has intensified the last 40 years, we've seen a signficant drop in things like disposable income, and an increase in economic inequality, IMHO it is high time we use what political rights we have left and seriously look for alternatives here.
In Medieval Europe, denigrating certain symbols was a capital offense(i.e. stuff like throwing mud at a statue of the Virgin Mary during a religious parade could get you death by slow torture-and the only way to get a quicker death was to kiss a cross or something similar).
Hollywood seems to have taken on the role of the Vatican. The US has all kinds of pressing crime problems-and somehow, the MPAA manages to get their concerns at the top of the heap--and avoid jurisdictional issues between the states and the feds.
Seriously, it is one thing to have a buggy, insecure OS in your desktop, but would you want a device running a Microsoft OS implanted in your head?
I suspect that we'll need to seriously rethink systems software to make these things really useful. My guess is that the first real applications of this sort of thing will be extending people's memorization capability and ability to do mathematical calculations of various sorts.
To put the value of these into perspective, FDR had a man that travelled with him whose main skill was the abilty to remember the name, face and a few facts about anyone he'd ever met. This meant that FDR could greet local politicians by their first name--and ask how their children were doing by name. When that kind of capability becomes available, I doubt any CEO or politician will be able to function without a suitable device.
The way that western society operates, people tend to emulate their leaders. Credit cards for example were originally used by "high rollers"-and gradually filtered down to the masses. My point here: the capability here is so important, that we have folks that will pay tens of thousands of dollars to get it-and will take considerable risks early in the development curve.
Slashdot Mirror
The the analysis you published in infoworld
has some fundamental problems:
In terms of your readers, the figure to look at isn't gross wages, but _disposable income_ ( say after taxes, insurance, housing, transportation). Rising salaries may just indicate movement of jobs from lower cost areas like Oregon to higher cost areas like New York City.
Your analysis doesn't take into account the fact of the predatory, corporate sponsored immigration policy- visa programs like H-1b/L-1 with little purpose other than to reduce the disposable wages of IT workers. This article shows how this works for the economy as a whole. The H-1b/L-1 programs are still large compared to the overall pool of IT workers--and have a much larger impact than outsourcing at this point.
RJB
The folks at JP Aerospace are using baloons for assist--in fact they are taking this even further and claim they can take a lighter than air craft to orbit using ion drives or something similar.
This is kind of amusing idea-someone using a virus/worm to provide _benefits_ rather than harm. Yes, the idea _is_ a bit intrusive. Still, would the FBI put out resources for someone that _fixed_ a bunch of major problems? Would folks bother removing such a worm?
I wonder what the free wifi map would look like if someone pulled this off? I can imagine a bunch of folks would just leave the mods in their hardware-and the results might include some serious adjustments for various companies that would now have to complete with free broadband.
Joy has enough money that he can do any dang thing he wants-enough money that he could go to Russia and hire a pretty decent research team all with his own money--all without risking his capital(i.e. he could just run off the interest of his investments). I don't see Joy as putting his money where his mouth is. If the world may be coming to an end, and if someone really believes it, it would be prudent to invest considerably in averting that possibility.
When I look at Joy's actions, it seems to me like he can't imagine a world in which money doesn't mean more than it does today. That shows a striking lack of imagination in considering what a civilization changing event might mean.
I'd like to be wrong here. I really looked up to Joy when I worked at Sun-the lack of real leadership here is kind of sad though.
This was a very good post. I think the poster is
.NET--so basically if you have a manager that just has to do stuff the .Net way--you can with Jscript.net. Are there really compelling features that C# has that Jscript doesn't? I have yet to see them personally. I've done a little server side Javascript on Microsoft platforms-it sure was better than VBScript-and my experience with Java.
right that Jscript is the right environment for client side development-and the browser deployments enable a lot to be done in this respect.
My sense is that there is life to Javascript beyond the browser. Right now, Javascript is one of a very few languages that has decent suppot both on the Java VM _and_
I can imagine Javascript/Ecmascript/Jscript seriously taking over the world. Most of the open source code in existance today is C. Folks may use the g++ compiler, but in many cases what they are writing is really closer to C stylistically than C++. Sun has promoted Java as the successor to C++(never mind the fact that Java can't do some of the really small systems stuff C can). Microsoft and Sun appear to be ready to beat themselves to a bloody pulp in a language/vm war.
The above poster may be very right. This really may be the opportunity to move things forward more than they could be otherwise. Perhaps Java _and_ C# really ought to just go the way of Cobol. C/C++ have had the advantage of ANSI standardization-Jscript/Jscript have the EMCA/W3 standards--which mean a lot in larger organizations that have code that lives on a long time.
Seriousl Academics are proposing fueling the entire US using biodiesal from algae. Folks like
Harry Braun are proposing wind-based power production. Both would appear cheaper than spending hundreds of Billions in the Middle East on wars and foreign aid.
I'm not sure if the Microsoft management can really imagine a community organized around anything other than accumulation of money-they really believe that is all there is to the world. History is full of examples of decadent financial empires that get militarily overrun by forces they didn't take . IMHO the eventual destiny of Microsoft is to encounter software that simple subsumes and contains them. Linux has been an important first step. Xen,Bocks,Plex86,Wine are other important steps here--combined with Linux/BSD they give Windows much needed adult supervision. I suspect the stuff that Chuck Moore is doing with ColorForth and his hardware designs could eventually obsolesce both Intel and Microsoft.
I don't think that was always the case. Folks like Ford,Hughes and Carnegie-whatever their failings weren't nearly as much of hypocrites as the current crowd appears to be.
Seriously, talking to someone like sharp is like talking to a dollar bill-or a stock market. The only thing you can count on them to do is to say things in an attempt to enrich themselves. The thing that is scary: Sharp may actually believe his own material. He really may have believed what he said when he was at Red Hat--and changed those beliefs/judgements when he went to Micro$oft.
I can see how pushing Linux actually makes sense for IBM. IBM has lost a _lot_ by being in the number two spot in terms of profit/stock value. Simply cutting Microsoft down would mean that IBM could regain some of the monopoly rent that goes to whateover computer company is "the biggest". I don't think that Microsoft can at this point do anything similar to IBM--a lot of IBM's strength now is related to their position as a large, service organization that can field folks in numbers/locations other organizations have trouble matching. I have a bit of trouble with the idea of HP/Dell being the big "Linux vendors" long term--both of these companies have some serious quality issues IMHO with their products compared to IBM or Toshiba. What IBM needs to do here IMHO is more agressively invest in smaller, innovative companies than Microsoft can/does(and utilize the stength of the IBM research organization to spot serious innovation).
Ultimately, I think we'll need smarter spam filters. That isn't too different than what we were doing at HNC. IF the letter is from someone you don't know and talks about Human growth hormone or altering of bodily parts, it is a pretty good bet it is spam. It is really just a matter of good pattern recognition.
The war in the middle east is paid out of general governmental revenues. Before the current war, the US squandered 1.2 Trillion in the Middle East. If these costs were factored in, Middle Eastern oil would be seen as VERY expensive. What ought to happen is that the US should start taxing gasoline significantly--and reduce taxes on the general population. US produced goods and services would become less expensive-particularly if they were produced in areas that aren't terribly oil dependent. These wasteful expenditures in the middle east are subsidization of a failed technological policy. The US _can_ be energy independent and at peace with the rest of the world--but there is a need for some serious leadership and innovation.
It appears that energy is a major factor that is pacing Chinese economic development. Have the Chinese established some other energy sources through R&D(say some results in some other form of hot fusion) or diplomatic arrangements(i.e. a deal with the Russians or Islamic oil exporters)?
Commercial broadcasters haven't really done much for the spectrum they were given. IMHO there should be substantial taxes on commercial use of spectrum. Theoretically, it would seem that Wi-Fi could deliver much more content than is now done with the spectrum the broadcasters are using. Perhaps we ought to look at completely eliminating the television spectrum and replacing it with Wi-Fi.
The 2005/1/1 funding deadline _does_ strike me as rather wimpy. The original aviation prizes were open ended.
I can imagine the world-wide movement towards Linux will push lots of folks into running Linux _alongside Windows_(say using VMware or the free alternative Xen). However, there is an alternative to movement to Linux:
serious innovation
Linux is cheaper than Windows-no doubt about it. However, is Linux really as good an os as there could be? Neither Windows nor Linux are really what folks need in areas like embedded systems or robotics. Linux and Windows both have their roots in rather ancient operating systems(i.e. VMS and Unix), as Chuck Moore, inventor of forth points out, occaisionally it is time for a fresh start.
Xen allows a computer to run both Windows and Linux at the same time(similar to VM on mainframes. It has turned out to be quite a bit harder than we anticipated early on to get Wine running well than originally anticipated due to the host of undocumented features Microsoft uses. Xen on the other hand appears to have the blessing of Microsoft(at least for the time being). I suspect that Xen will be out first-and will mean that folks that have a machine with Windows already on it will be able to continue using Windows-with badly needed adult supervision. If properly handled, the net effect would be the same:
You'd be able to run windows programs from Linux and Linux programs from Windows(both running on the same machine). IMHO getting the installation really down right will be important here--but I think that Xen really does have the potential to get a much bigger chunk of existing windows users also running Xen.
I have a bosses that are old mainframe hacker-they really liked Xen when it was explained to them. I suspect this will catch on.
Makes me think Chuck Moore has been right all alone. The real future is smaller computers that are very low power, simple and ubiquitous. Every day, Microsoft reminds me more and more of the IBM of my youth.
The problem here is that when H-1b/L-1 visas were expanded, there were no protections to prevent those programs from displacing US citizens--and those programs have specifically displaced those with a scientific or technical inclination. What that means is that if you can do other kinds of work, you may have a strong incentive to do so.
As someone that actually worked on an investigation of an extremely wealthy person(Bill Griffin, CEO of Riscorp)IMHO virtually _any_ wealthy person can be convicted of _something_ if there is sufficient motivation to open an investigation. I personally support the conviction of Ms. Stewart--but I think the reason why that investigatino proceeded was the motivation and political ineptness of Ms. Stewart rather than the degree of the actual wrongdoing. Likewise, Mr. Gates' anti-trust problems went away when he and lots of his employees made the "right" donations. In the present climate, I don't think there is motivation to mount an appropriate investigation.
Individual contributions are legally limited, but it is a common practice for employees of a company to be rewarded for making political donations.
I supported Wine development in a small way early on when I was director of the Syntropy Institute. I think one of the most important things we've learned from Wine Development is that catching up with a complex closed source project is _hard_. My guess is that Xen will be the first Open Source product to really allow Windows and Linux to coexist well. IMHO it is worthwhile for Wine to be fully developed-but in the meantime, Xen provides a solution that is applicable for folks that already have a Windows license. Xen appears to have Microsoft's blessing. The release of Xen will mean there is no reason not to have Linux on any Windows machine-you'll be able to give Windows badly needed adult supervision with no more ill effects other than use of a bit of disk space and cpu cycles.
The original constitutional reason for copyrights and patents was to support "THE PROGRESS OF SCIENCE AND USEFUL ARTS"--not to protect the creation of what the great Ralph Nader calls "violent corporate sponsored pornography".
I don't opposed government subsidies of "science and the useful arts"--if done on a basis that is fair and democratic --promoting technological development that creates the kind of advancements and culture much of the population wants. What Hollywood wants goes beyond free speech, or subsized technical advancements, Hollywood wants active government support of privately owned, corporate managed social control mechanisms. Given the fact that since protection of these mechanisms has intensified the last 40 years, we've seen a signficant drop in things like disposable income, and an increase in economic inequality, IMHO it is high time we use what political rights we have left and seriously look for alternatives here.
In Medieval Europe, denigrating certain symbols was a capital offense(i.e. stuff like throwing mud at a statue of the Virgin Mary during a religious parade could get you death by slow torture-and the only way to get a quicker death was to kiss a cross or something similar).
Hollywood seems to have taken on the role of the Vatican. The US has all kinds of pressing crime problems-and somehow, the MPAA manages to get their concerns at the top of the heap--and avoid jurisdictional issues between the states and the feds.
Seriously, it is one thing to have a buggy, insecure OS in your desktop, but would you want a device running a Microsoft OS implanted in your head?
I suspect that we'll need to seriously rethink systems software to make these things really useful. My guess is that the first real applications of this sort of thing will be extending people's memorization capability and ability to do mathematical calculations of various sorts.
To put the value of these into perspective, FDR had a man that travelled with him whose main skill was the abilty to remember the name, face and a few facts about anyone he'd ever met. This meant that FDR could greet local politicians by their first name--and ask how their children were doing by name. When that kind of capability becomes available, I doubt any CEO or politician will be able to function without a suitable device.
The way that western society operates, people tend to emulate their leaders. Credit cards for example were originally used by "high rollers"-and gradually filtered down to the masses. My point here: the capability here is so important, that we have folks that will pay tens of thousands of dollars to get it-and will take considerable risks early in the development curve.