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User: Michael+Woodhams

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  1. Re:Sounds like training on Tesla Badly Misses Model 3 Production Goals (wsj.com) · · Score: 1

    Can you point me to some articles about these? I haven't heard the 787 fastener story before, and have only hand-wavey explanations about the A380 delays (somehow they could successfully wire up the test flight planes but took about 2 years to figure out how to wire the rest of them.)

  2. Re:Can someone please explain? on Tesla Badly Misses Model 3 Production Goals (wsj.com) · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I think there are both logical and illogical reasons for being a Tesla bear.

    The illogical reasons I am aware of are political. Musk founded Tesla to accelerate the shift from internal combustion engines to electric cars, to help reduce climate change. If you are a climate change denier, you can see this as making him and the company the enemy, therefore he must be a fraud etc. If you are a bit more sane, but still partly inhabit the same echo chambers as the irrational anti-Teslas, you'll have a biased view of the company.

    Logically, the price of Tesla stock is way out of whack with their turnover and profits. The price can only be based on the expectation that the company will grow very big very fast. Tesla are investing in plant etc. to try to support growing very big very fast. This is a high risk strategy: a moderate hiccup delays the pay-back on the massive investments, and you have massive debts without sufficient income to service them and lots of disappointed investors bailing and crashing your share price. Tesla might successfully grow, but on the other hand, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if they are bankrupt two years from now. Even Elon Musk has sometimes said that he thinks the Tesla share price is too high.

    In general, Musk's track record is that he builds what he says he is going to build, but it takes much longer than he says. There is a risk that, even if from an engineering view point he can eventually deliver, the company needed to deliver the results will go bankrupt first.

  3. Not the eighth continent on 'Lost Continent' Rises Again With New Expedition (smithsonianmag.com) · · Score: 1

    This article avoids the trap, but I've seen other news coverage calling Zealandia the eighth continent. This can't be right. For Zealandia to count as a continent, your definition of continent has to be something like a sizeable region of continental crust separated from other such regions. With this in mind, the count of continents would be Eurasia/Africa, the Americas, Antarctica, Australia. If you think it big enough to be continental, Zealandia would come in at number five. (Even the Eurasia/Africa separation from the Americas is questionable. Australia separates from Eurasia/Africa at the Russell line.)

    In addition, of course, there never were (in human history) seven continents. Separating Europe from Asia was always Eurocentric exceptionalism in direct conflict with reality.

  4. Native vs naturalized citizenship on Homeland Security Plans To Collect Immigrants' Social Media Information (fortune.com) · · Score: 2

    You speak like there are lots of examples.
    You can't be president.
    I expect that your citizenship can be revoked if you lied in the citizenship application process.
    Are there any other legal differences between naturalized and native citizens?

  5. Re:How can this be new? on Most Powerful Cosmic Rays Come From Galaxies Far, Far Away (space.com) · · Score: 3, Informative

    I did my MSc across the Tasman in New Zealand in 1988 on the JANZOS cosmic ray experiment. We had Cerenkov telescopes detecting particles of about 10^12 eV, and particle detectors for showers from primary particles of about 10^15 eV. (i.e. high enough energy that the cosmic ray shower reached ground level.)

    We were well aware of the problem of charged particles traveling straight. A few cosmic rays (from memory, about 1%) are gamma rays, which do travel straight. The problem is that we couldn't tell from the shower whether the primary particle was a gamma ray, so you're looking for a directional signal of 1% against a background noise of 99%.

    There were suggestions at the time that Cerenkov telescopes with better imaging than ours could perhaps distinguish gamma ray induced showers, and for the higher energy showers you could use underground muon detectors, because hadron-triggered showers produced more muons. I haven't followed cosmic ray astronomy since then, so I don't know the current state of the art. I found it frustrating to be in a field where you struggle to convince others (and possibly yourself) that you've seen anything at all other than noise.

    The AC from Adelaide in the 2000s replying to your message says that at these super-high energies you can get direction information because they are too high energy to be deflected much. It makes sense that this would be the case at sufficiently high energy, although I don't know what 'sufficiently high energy' would be.

    I did maximum likelihood analysis on reconstructing the direction of the cosmic rays from the particle detectors. I had a little legacy code to start with, which was in Fortran 77, so that is what I used. Happily, I have never had to use Fortran ever again.

  6. What is the directional sensitivity of LIGO? on New Kind of Gravitational Wave Source Detected? (nature.com) · · Score: 1

    Given a (candidate) detection, what can they say about the direction to the source? To be able to identify a single galaxy you need to be accurate to minutes of arc, which surprises me in a device operating so close to the bounds of detectability. How does this work?

  7. Is this Trump evil, or just Standard Issue evil? on Justice Department Walks Back Demand For Information On Anti-Trump Website (theverge.com) · · Score: 1

    I have plenty of reasons to hold the Trump administration in low regard, but it isn't clear this is one of them.

    Is this a politically directed Justice department dealing unto the opponents of the administration, or is this just overpowered law enforcement agents acting in the way they are accustomed?

  8. Re:Polio eradication progress on Plants 'Hijacked' To Make Polio Vaccine (bbc.com) · · Score: 1

    In this case it is a non-individual risk. Getting vaccinated makes you less likely to get cVDPV, but makes it (very slightly) more likely that people around you will get cVDPV.

  9. Re:Why the polio vaccine? on Plants 'Hijacked' To Make Polio Vaccine (bbc.com) · · Score: 1

    Polio would be a really bad germ warfare candidate. It mostly affects children. It is symptomatic in only about one case in 200. It uses fecal/oral transmission route, which makes it much harder to infect people with a weapon compared to an airborne disease.

    You seem to be saying that having a disease in germ warfare labs *and* in the wild is somehow better than having it only in germ warfare labs.

  10. Re:Why a plant? on Plants 'Hijacked' To Make Polio Vaccine (bbc.com) · · Score: 1

    No they are not.

  11. Re:Polio eradication progress on Plants 'Hijacked' To Make Polio Vaccine (bbc.com) · · Score: 2

    No, your interpretation is entirely wrong.

    cVDPV cases this year are in line with what we've had for the last decade. It is just that WPV cases are plummeting, so where cVDPV used to be a small percentage of cases, now it is a large percentage. Futhermore, most of the cases are in Syria, where civil war has created an environment conducive to outbreaks, which is not the fault of the vaccine.

    Although the vaccine is causing damage, it is preventing much more. In 1980 there were about 400,000 cases per year worldwide (already a reduction on pre-vaccination cases from prior to 1950s). Vaccination is what has brought us down to where we are today, with under 100 cases per year.

    The polio eradication effort is trying to address the cVDPV problem. About a year ago, the removed the WPV2 strain from standard vaccinations, and now vaccinate for WPV2 only in response to cVDPV2 outbreaks. It is too soon to know if this is having an effect.

    It is beyond my competence to know whether current vaccination technology and strategy can eradicate cVDPV. There is an alternative vaccination (IPV, inactivated polio vaccine), which is injected, compared to the attenuated oral polio vaccine, OPV, which is the current workhorse of eradication efforts. However, IPV mostly prevents symptoms rather than preventing spread, so it is not so good for eradication (and is harder to deliver in poor countries.) (OPV causes immune response primarily in the gut, IPV causes immune response primarily in the blood, which allows transmission through fecal/oral route to be unbroken.) I understand IPV will be used in the final stages of eradication because of the cVDPV problem, but I don't know details.

    The current vaccination strategy can eradicate WPV. WPV2 and WPV3 have been eradicated, and WPV1 is on the brink.

  12. Polio eradication progress on Plants 'Hijacked' To Make Polio Vaccine (bbc.com) · · Score: 5, Informative

    I've been following the polio numbers week by week for some years now. (Polio eradication will be one of the great achievements of human history.)

    This news is particularly important because this year for the first time ever "circulating vaccine derived polio virus" (cVDPV, where live weakened polio in vaccines has mutated back to virulence) is causing more polio cases than wild polio virus (WPV).
    Here are the full-year numbers for the last few years:
          WPV cVDPV
    2011 583 67
    2012 202 68
    2013 416 65
    2014 359 56
    2015 74 32
    2016 37 5

    (2017 missing because the year hasn't yet finished.) Here are the numbers for start of year to approx 9 August:
              WPV cVDPV
    2014 138 31
    2015 29 10
    2016 19 3
    2017 8 37
    (I only have 2014 onwards ready to hand in week-by-week breakdown.) Mostly this is due to a major outbreak of cVDPV in Syria (30 cases).

    (There is a delay of up to about 2 months between a polio case in the field and it getting reported to central authorities and added to the official numbers, but the numbers above are all what was reported at that time of year, so the comparison is fair.)

    It is looking reasonable to hope that the last ever WPV case will be this year or next year, but cVDPV eradication is looking harder. Polio is a disease that can lurk asymptomatically in a population, so it will be three years after the last detection of WPV before it is declared eradicated. (Nigeria had over two years of being apparently polio free before a few cases re-emerged.)

    There were three strains of WPV. WPV2 and WPV3 have been eradicated, but until recently vaccines were still vaccinating against WPV2, and it is this vaccine strain (cVDPV2) which is causing most of the problems (all of the cVDPV cases so far this year are cVDPV2.) Now WPV2 vaccine is not in the standard vaccinations, and is only used in response to a cVDPV2 outbreak.

    The countries still with WPV endemic are Pakistan and Afghanistan, and Nigeria has had cases recently enough that we can't safely say it is free of WPV.

    The countries which have had cVDPV cases in 2015 or later are Syria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Pakistan, Madagascar, Lao, Guinea, Ukraine, Myanmar, Nigeria.

    Find more at
    http://polioeradication.org/po...

  13. Re: Pounds? Don't you mean kilograms? on SpaceX Successfully Launches, Recovers Falcon 9 For CRS-12 (techcrunch.com) · · Score: 4, Funny

    This post demonstrates that any sufficiently advanced idiocy or ignorance is indistinguishable from trolling.

  14. Re:Pounds? Don't you mean kilograms? on SpaceX Successfully Launches, Recovers Falcon 9 For CRS-12 (techcrunch.com) · · Score: 2

    Scientists, especially rocket scientists, need to distinguish between mass and weight (force). In SI, it is very clear: mass is in kilograms, weight is in Newtons. Pounds can be mass or weight, depending on what system you use.

    In Imperial, traditional use treats mass and weight as interchangeable, both measured in pounds. Scientific use must make a distinction, hence must choose whether a pound is mass or force. If you choose to treat a pound as mass, then the unit of force in your system is the poundal. If you choose to tread a pound as force, then your unit of mass is the slug. Both systems have been used, but I have little idea as to their current prevalence as I am both a scientist and living in a non-backwards country, so I only know these systems like I know farthings, shillings, crowns and guineas. (There is/has been yet a third option, using pounds-mass and pounds-force. This would require various formulae to have factors of 32 (feet/sec/sec) in them to make them work.)

    More details at Wikipedia.

  15. Debt or equity? on Tesla Burns Through Record Cash To Bring the Model 3 To Market (bloomberg.com) · · Score: 1

    Tesla has a very high share price relative to assets and earnings. To me, this indicates they'd be better raising money by share offerings instead of debt, however, I am largely ignorant of financial markets. Can someone knowledgeable comment on the reasoning behind this choice?

  16. Re:Yawn. on Toyota's New Solid-State Battery Could Make Its Way To Cars By 2020 (techcrunch.com) · · Score: 4, Informative

    The Toyota vs Tesla numbers is a point well made. However

    Tesla relies on selling ZEV credits to other automakers to keep from going bankrupt. But other automakers only need a certain number of ZEV credits each year to comply with CARB regulations. So Tesla has to be careful not to produce too many ZEVs lest they cause the price of ZEV credits to plummet due to oversupply.

    Can you provide evidence for this? An obvious alternative hypothesis is that Tesla would love to have much higher production, and are working as hard as they can to overcome the financial, organizational and engineering problems to be able to do so. Tesla say they will be soon be producing the model 3 in huge numbers, which means either they are lying, or they are abandoning the ZEV credit plan, or you are plain wrong. (Here is an article saying they are aiming for 400,000 to 600,000 per year, but also saying they can't realistically get over 230,000, and gives reasons entirely independent of ZEV credits.)

  17. $765 billion a year is misleading on The Myth of Drug Expiration Dates (propublica.org) · · Score: 4, Informative

    The summary puts this number out of context.
    "ProPublica has been researching why the U.S. health care system is the most expensive in the world. One answer, broadly, is waste — some of it buried in practices that the medical establishment and the rest of us take for granted. We’ve documented how hospitals often discard pricey new supplies, how nursing homes trash valuable medications after patients pass away or move out, and how drug companies create expensive combinations of cheap drugs. Experts estimate such squandering eats up about $765 billion a year — as much as a quarter of all the country’s health care spending."

    So that total includes many things, including "expensive combinations of cheap drugs", not just, as the summary implies, expired drugs that are still usable.

  18. Re:The schedule ain't gonna happen on Ask Slashdot: What Are Some Developer Secrets That Could Sink Your Business? · · Score: 2

    I heard a similar story about the Hubble Space Telescope, from one of the lead scientists. All the teams were way behind schedule. All the teams knew that the other teams were behind. So they all pretended for as long as possible they were on time, until one team had to admit that they needed more time. At that point, all the rest of the teams got the time they needed without any blame for delaying the project.

    Also I was told there were major quality issues with soldering on they main computer boards. These problems were only caught and fixed because of the launch delay after the Challenger accident.

    This is all from decades old memory, so add grains of salt.

  19. Re:Two Positive Charges? on Scientists Have Detected a New Particle At the Large Hadron Collider At CERN (bbc.com) · · Score: 1

    There are particles with double negative charge. They are too massive to conveniently carry charge around like an electron, are hard (very expensive) to create, and even more significantly have extremely short lives. Sorry, but this sort of particle physics doesn't have technology applications.

  20. A little bit more background on Scientists Have Detected a New Particle At the Large Hadron Collider At CERN (bbc.com) · · Score: 5, Informative

    Quarks come in three "generations". The first, lightest generation has down (mass 4.8 MeV) and up (mass 2.4 MeV). The second generation has strange (95 MeV, a heavier version of down) and charm (1275 MeV, a heavier version of up.) The third generation has bottom (4180 MeV, heaver version of down and strange) and top (172440 MeV, heaver version of up and charm.)

    When they combine into particles, you either get paired quark+anti-quark (e.g. up+anti-down is a pi+ particle) or a triple of same type: quark+quark+quark or anti-quark+anti-quark+anti-quark. (E.g. a proton is up+up+down.)

    This article says the new particle has two charm quarks.

    This article says Xi baryons are a class of particles which have a single up or down plus two more massive quarks: either strange, charm or bottom, and Xi baryons have been known since 1952.

    From this I conclude that when they say "light" quarks they mean down, up and strange. (I was very frustrated that they didn't say what they meant by "light" quarks.)

  21. Not in the same league as SpaceX on Rocket Lab Inaugurates The Era Of Even Cheaper Rocket Launches (bloomberg.com) · · Score: 1

    Rocket Lab is doing cool stuff, but the comparison to SpaceX is tenuous.

    Rocket Lab's Electron rocket is very similar in size to a V2 (world war II) rocket, with loaded mass 10,500 kg. Wikipedia says it delivers 150-225 kg to a 500 km sun synchronous orbit. The initial Falcon 9 had loaded mass 333,400 kg and delivers 10,450 kg to low earth orbit, and the current Falcon 9 can do about twice that in expendable mode.

    Rocket Lab aren't threatening SpaceX's business at all. SpaceX is currently not threatening Rocket Lab, but conceivably could do so in future. If it succeeds in bringing reusable launch costs way down, SpaceX might be in a position to offer 50-100 times the payload for just twice the price.

  22. As is often the case, video dropped out from the barge during landing, however just before it dropped out there was a big circle of white water on the far/left side of the barge, and when we reacquired signal the booster was landed off-center near/right. This looks to me like they still had a fair bit of horizontal velocity on landing - another indicator that this landing was near to failure. In a few days we'll get the video and know better.

  23. No fans or water cooling? on Ask Slashdot: What Would Happen If You Were To Put a Computer Inside a Fridge? · · Score: 1

    What are you trying to achieve? A fridge could be useful, but why would you then specify no CPU fans or water cooling? No fans is good for silence, but this only holds if your fridge is also silent.

    I would expect that if you've gone to all the trouble of making a refrigerated case, you'd be foolish not to use water cooling to make best use of your refrigeration. If you're determined to use air cooling, you'd be best to make it closed-cycle, otherwise you'd have to deal with condensation and ice build up due to humidity in the air intake.

    A kitchen fridge is designed to run intermittently. If this was your cooling technology, you'd probably want to add some thermal mass to the system, else its on-off cycles would be very fast.

  24. In a certain sort of movie (e.g. Mad Max, The Crow) the difference between good guys and bad guys is the order in which they commit their atrocities. In these two stories, good guys delete the data and then get fired, bad guys get fired and then delete the data.

  25. Good launch to watch on SpaceX Will Launch Secretive X-37B Spaceplane's Next Mission (latimes.com) · · Score: 4, Interesting

    When they launched the spy satellite, it was the best launch coverage (streamed on youtube) to date, in my opinion. Rockets go up all the time, it is rockets coming back down which is unusual and special. Because of the payload, the coverage of that mission didn't look at stage II at all, so we got better coverage of the booster (stage I) return, including continuous launch-to-landing ground telescope images of the booster, plus continuous video from the booster. I have high hopes that this launch will be similar.