If history shows anything, it's that the top dog's place at the top doesn't last forever. The United States could be at the zenith of its power, as one could plausibly argue any number of threats that could grow. Still, one could also argue that the United States' power will not decline until the unforseeable future.
Unarguably America is currently the world's dop dog; however, sooner or later a military threat greater than the United States will arise. These days the most probable scenario involves China, which features an increasingly capitalist country chained to a repressive, dictatorial government government. Still, others opposed to democratic forms of government may arise, or other events occur to undermine the United States. Therefore, your reasoning that "the USA sees Britain or France as the biggest threat to its current security" makes little sense. America probably sees suicidal Islamic lunatics such as al-Queda as the greatest threat to its security, followed shortly thereafter by the spread of nuclear weapons (which is linked to the first problem, and effectively includes North Korea), followed shortly thereafter by the long-term rise of China. I once saw Bob Woodward speak, who wrote Bush at War and Plan of Attack. He said that the departing Clinton administration warned of those three threats. The development of the rail gun certainly applies to the third, and to a lesser degree to the second -- perhaps such a device will eventually function as a kill-vehicle against nuclear missiles. If, in 2020, one nuclear missile is destroyed as it approaches an American city, I would consider nearly any amount the military could spend a worthy endeavor.
Ultimately, the rail gun won't defend against the limpet mine or explosive truck, as you accurately state. But the military must prepare for numerous threats at the same time. The most important danger may be small groups of individuals, but then people in the 1980s argued against the Abrams (sp?) tank by saying it was a relic of the Cold War. Yet it proved its worth in Gulf Wars I & II, regardless of what one thinks of the politics behind those wars. So the military prepares for fighting groups of individuals, but it prepares for other problems as well.
As a consequence of their laziness, they have lost a lot of Windows users to Mac and Linux and a lot of IE users to Mozilla/Firefox and Opera.
I'd like to see some numbers that back that up. According to Google's Zeitgeist, Microsoft operating systems comprise about 90% of its userbase. Granted, some of that 90% uses Mozilla (myself included), and some browsers identify themselves as IE. Apple's quarterly sales numbers routinely show that the number of machines they sell has declined or remained steady over the last few years. I'm not sure where your comment comes from.
Although I'm no MS fanboy, I think your assertation that MS has lost "a lot" of Windows users is wrong.
Even if FF XI overtook Everquest in terms of "active users" (which shouldn't be hard since the game is half a decade old), Everquest has still sold vastly more copies and made a lot more money. I agree that interest in online games and a monthly fee exists: but is it enough to change the fate of the next-gen Xbox? Probably not.
And keep in mind that Everquest + FFXI + every other MMORPG still represents a tiny percentage of the overall game market.
It's closed source, but for an individual PIM (personal information manager) I use Lotus Oragnizer on Windows, which comes as part of the Lotus SmartSuite from IBM. The beauty of the program is that it emulates a filafax, and the real-world metaphors make it much easier to navigate and control than Outlook. Still, it has no network functionality of which I am aware. That's fine for me beause I use it as an individual, but others it might be problematic.
So to add-on to the poster's question: does anyone know of an OSS PIM similar to Organizer, which also employs a filafax metaphor?
The next generation console wars will clearly be decided in the online space. If Microsoft concentrates on this then they have a chance.
Despite the +1 interesting mod, I reject your premise. I think the abysmal showing (in terms of sales in the overall game market) of virtually every MMO with the exception of Everquest demonstrates that most people aren't that interested in on-line only play. When they are interested, they want free, like Battle.net or FPS servers. I know about 20 people who own an X-Box. Zero of those people use the X-Box Live service.
Online content in the console market faces two important hurdles, in my view: 1) Most American homes lack broadband internet. While broadband continues to grow, the fact remains that modems will continue to dominate in terms of number for the near future. 2) Most console gamers I know prefer to play literally live, against friends in houses, dorm rooms or apartments.
Then there are other things: parents don't want to pay for or set up online games; service outages; increased costs; etc.
Granted, I'm arguing primarily with anecdote, but I've seen no data that indicates that Microsoft can win the next generation with online games. I think that other factors will play a much larger role. Another poster wrote about his experience in the electronics section of Wal-Mart, at which he sold hundreds of PS-2s because of the DVD playback feature. Things like DVD playback and backwards compatibility will probably play such a larger role that the online market alone gives MS a chance. Certainly, they may win the next generation, but I think it will be for different reasons than those you state.
You make good points; however, the number of details that could sink such an overarching systes boggle the mind. There is the problem of having a program sufficiently robust and simple to control all those items. The first question is how one would network them -- wires obviously aren't practical, so that implies a wireless solution. That would invite vulnerability when the product ships without encryption, or with a weak default password, or any number of other problems. Furthermore, one would have to get the manufacturers to work together to have a fairly standard set of drivers: I have enough problems with my video card working properly, without having to worry about my toaster.
Then, as previously mentioned, there are security problems. If someone is war-driving and finds my heating system open, do I want them to be able to turn it up to the highest setting? Do I want my toaster, oven and TV to turn on because of a merry wireless prankster? These are not trivial problems, particularly considering the number of unsecured wireless access points around today. There is something to be said for local control.
Finally, in order for such an idea to become reality, I think the networked solution would have to offer and order of magnitude improvement over current interfaces (like turning the coffee machine on with a switch) to see such a setup widely adopted. And while you, and maybe even I, would be willing to ssh home and customize, no one else would.
In short, I think the idea of convergence is a good one, and that's probably why we see so many articles trumpeting it as the Next Big Thing. But I think the reasons above are valid, and those mammoth issues come to mind just off the top of my head; I'm sure someone else could add another five, or elaborate on those I listed.
I've been reading about "convergence" for as long as I've been cognizant of computers, and I don't buy it. Promises of mythical devices to link all aspects of digital life end up empty. Aside from the technological problems of making these devices work together, I think there is a bigger problem in that specialized devices for specific applications generally work better than a generalized device.
For example, I prefer using a desktop for real work like long sessions of typing or video editing. The larger screen real estate, better price and more power mean that I'm better off with a desktop; and I think most people feel that way. Likewise, I don't want to use that monitor as a TV because it's too small; the hard drive in that computer is too small to store uncompressed DVDs, which are better left on desk to be played in the large-screen TV upstairs. I want a portable device to play music, and the key factor for that device is size, followed closely by battery life and ease-of-use -- and such a device, so useful for music, would be worthless for movies.
My point is that convergence isn't here today, and I doubt it will be in the near future. The hurdles may eventually be overcome, but I suspect convergence might be like flying cars or cheap, easy nuclear power: perpetually five or ten years down the line.
Your Mac Life is a weekly, three-hour long radio program on all things Apple. I listen every once in a while, most often following big announcements. For example, the WWDC wrap-up show will probably be interesting. It's not rigorously technical, but the questioner might like it.
They'll probably have monitors, too. Rumors sites like Think Secret have published reports about the soon-to-be-released monitors. So you might not want an old Cinema display to go with that new PM.
I use a Dell 8200 desktop that I bought about two years ago; last year I had it next to a single proc. 1.8, and I found the silence of the 1.8 startling by comparison.
Not that either machine is especially loud, but the Dell was more noticeable.
This kind of "article" is exactly why newspapers are going down the toilet today. There's no disclosure.
Don't cite this article as some kind of evidence of newspapers' decline. The Seattle Weekly is a free alternative paper that plays faster and looser than Seattle's more conservative (in the sense of maintaining the journalism tradition of focusing on objective reporting) papers like the Times and the PI.
Besides, I don't think newspapers are going down the toilet. Some newspapers report minor circulation decline, but I think that's more of an indication that they are slowly changing from an analog to digital distribution systems. Fundamentally I still think newspapers serve vital and important functions.
Five years ago, a friend and I played Starcraft together, incessantly. We were good -- not mind-bogglingly good, but good enough to hop on the Korean servers sometimes and play wicked 2v2 matches. Once on regular Battle.net, we played two guys with legitimate, high ladder rankings (1300+) from another clan; they were clearly better, but we thought we had a chance -- and we did. I still remember the initial rushes to keep them off balance, the beautiful counter-rush that my partner fended off while I crushed the stronger player, who didn't expect retaliation.
In another game, I played Protoss and he played Zerg. Again we were out of our league, and were preciptiously balanced on the ledge of victory or defeat and we were both teetering toward defeat. I thought his economy was screwed, and he thought the same of me. Somehow, he pulled out a batch of mutas while I launched a Reaver/Dragoon drop that I thought would be useless. We met, surprisingly, at the same location, and devastated out opponent.
Yeah, we talk about old girlfriends and such. But it's not quite the same as those intense Starcraft games. We talk about many other things too, but not with the same gleam in the eye.
Now neither of us play; he likes poker, I like reading and other things. If I had to do it all over again I don't know if I'd still go for Starcraft, but to deny videogames their rightful place along other forms of entertainment like movies or books is wrong.
#4. Local agent picks up the name, address and social security number of the person who has the account that deposited that check.
It's more likely that, as a previous poster mentioned, you'll find that information forged. But even more likely than that, you'll find a bank in the same countries that allow Internet gambling sites to operate -- meaning the bank will be outside of United States jurisdiction.
Perhaps a few spammers will be found using the method you describe, but the money is big enough that the spammers will evolve.
Paypal isn't, technically, a bank, but in many respects they act like one. Therefore, I don't think it is unreasonable for customers to expect them to act like one. I no longer use Paypal after a bad experience with them, and have since learned that, as you put it, "They're been freezing/witholding/cancelling accounts willy-nilly ever since they started." That's nasty, unethical behavior; banks once did similar things -- until the government stepped in to regulate them. Since Paypal keeps acting like a bank but without any of the safeguards, I don't want to do business with them, and I encourage others not to either.
I once used Paypal too, since I figured that they must be okay since everyone else used them. I paid for the mistake in time and money. In a comment a few months ago I detailed my negative history with Paypal, and I can only say that I rue the day I didn't know about sites like Paypal Sucks and About Paypal. Yeah, I went the litigation route and got a little money back, but after that horrible experience I vowed never again.
I'm sorry to hear that Freenet relied on Paypal, and I can only hope they have lawyers at the ready -- because Paypal only speaks one language.
The ultimate spyware removal tool may cost some extra amount of cash, but I recommend it to my family members: Apple.
I run Win XP Pro because I need Lotus Word Pro and Access, neither of which run native on Apple; but I don't help others support Windows. It takes too much time.
Private universities generally offer smaller classes to a more dedicated group of students than large public universities ever can. This is particularly true of elite universities like Harvard, MIT and Yale, and to a lesser extent true at schoosl like mine. That means students generally have better access to the courses and advisors they need. Plus, costs of more than $20,000 a year motivate students to finish, even if parents pay most of the tuition.
If you look at large public schools, graduation rates aren't nearly as high, even over six years compared to five. The US News and World Report College issue shows a wide discrepency between public and private schools. The online version requires a premium description, so I can't provide a link. The fact remains that, to rephrase the post of the grandparent post: "Hell, most public universities overbook themselves at the undergraduate level on the basis that only 65% of students stay past their first year."
Slashdot Mirror
Do you have a link or any sort of data to back this assertation up? I'm intrigued, if it's true.
Hey, as long as he's not trying to make a specious point, or acting perniciously, why not?
Unarguably America is currently the world's dop dog; however, sooner or later a military threat greater than the United States will arise. These days the most probable scenario involves China, which features an increasingly capitalist country chained to a repressive, dictatorial government government. Still, others opposed to democratic forms of government may arise, or other events occur to undermine the United States. Therefore, your reasoning that "the USA sees Britain or France as the biggest threat to its current security" makes little sense. America probably sees suicidal Islamic lunatics such as al-Queda as the greatest threat to its security, followed shortly thereafter by the spread of nuclear weapons (which is linked to the first problem, and effectively includes North Korea), followed shortly thereafter by the long-term rise of China. I once saw Bob Woodward speak, who wrote Bush at War and Plan of Attack. He said that the departing Clinton administration warned of those three threats. The development of the rail gun certainly applies to the third, and to a lesser degree to the second -- perhaps such a device will eventually function as a kill-vehicle against nuclear missiles. If, in 2020, one nuclear missile is destroyed as it approaches an American city, I would consider nearly any amount the military could spend a worthy endeavor.
Ultimately, the rail gun won't defend against the limpet mine or explosive truck, as you accurately state. But the military must prepare for numerous threats at the same time. The most important danger may be small groups of individuals, but then people in the 1980s argued against the Abrams (sp?) tank by saying it was a relic of the Cold War. Yet it proved its worth in Gulf Wars I & II, regardless of what one thinks of the politics behind those wars. So the military prepares for fighting groups of individuals, but it prepares for other problems as well.
I'd like to see some numbers that back that up. According to Google's Zeitgeist, Microsoft operating systems comprise about 90% of its userbase. Granted, some of that 90% uses Mozilla (myself included), and some browsers identify themselves as IE. Apple's quarterly sales numbers routinely show that the number of machines they sell has declined or remained steady over the last few years. I'm not sure where your comment comes from.
Although I'm no MS fanboy, I think your assertation that MS has lost "a lot" of Windows users is wrong.
And keep in mind that Everquest + FFXI + every other MMORPG still represents a tiny percentage of the overall game market.
So to add-on to the poster's question: does anyone know of an OSS PIM similar to Organizer, which also employs a filafax metaphor?
Despite the +1 interesting mod, I reject your premise. I think the abysmal showing (in terms of sales in the overall game market) of virtually every MMO with the exception of Everquest demonstrates that most people aren't that interested in on-line only play. When they are interested, they want free, like Battle.net or FPS servers. I know about 20 people who own an X-Box. Zero of those people use the X-Box Live service.
Online content in the console market faces two important hurdles, in my view: 1) Most American homes lack broadband internet. While broadband continues to grow, the fact remains that modems will continue to dominate in terms of number for the near future. 2) Most console gamers I know prefer to play literally live, against friends in houses, dorm rooms or apartments.
Then there are other things: parents don't want to pay for or set up online games; service outages; increased costs; etc.
Granted, I'm arguing primarily with anecdote, but I've seen no data that indicates that Microsoft can win the next generation with online games. I think that other factors will play a much larger role. Another poster wrote about his experience in the electronics section of Wal-Mart, at which he sold hundreds of PS-2s because of the DVD playback feature. Things like DVD playback and backwards compatibility will probably play such a larger role that the online market alone gives MS a chance. Certainly, they may win the next generation, but I think it will be for different reasons than those you state.
"You can demonstrate a program for a corporate executive, but can't make him computer literate."
What is it with Slashdot users? They can't spell in the age of spell checkers.
Pot, kettle...
Then, as previously mentioned, there are security problems. If someone is war-driving and finds my heating system open, do I want them to be able to turn it up to the highest setting? Do I want my toaster, oven and TV to turn on because of a merry wireless prankster? These are not trivial problems, particularly considering the number of unsecured wireless access points around today. There is something to be said for local control.
Finally, in order for such an idea to become reality, I think the networked solution would have to offer and order of magnitude improvement over current interfaces (like turning the coffee machine on with a switch) to see such a setup widely adopted. And while you, and maybe even I, would be willing to ssh home and customize, no one else would.
In short, I think the idea of convergence is a good one, and that's probably why we see so many articles trumpeting it as the Next Big Thing. But I think the reasons above are valid, and those mammoth issues come to mind just off the top of my head; I'm sure someone else could add another five, or elaborate on those I listed.
For example, I prefer using a desktop for real work like long sessions of typing or video editing. The larger screen real estate, better price and more power mean that I'm better off with a desktop; and I think most people feel that way. Likewise, I don't want to use that monitor as a TV because it's too small; the hard drive in that computer is too small to store uncompressed DVDs, which are better left on desk to be played in the large-screen TV upstairs. I want a portable device to play music, and the key factor for that device is size, followed closely by battery life and ease-of-use -- and such a device, so useful for music, would be worthless for movies.
My point is that convergence isn't here today, and I doubt it will be in the near future. The hurdles may eventually be overcome, but I suspect convergence might be like flying cars or cheap, easy nuclear power: perpetually five or ten years down the line.
Your Mac Life is a weekly, three-hour long radio program on all things Apple. I listen every once in a while, most often following big announcements. For example, the WWDC wrap-up show will probably be interesting. It's not rigorously technical, but the questioner might like it.
Programmer General to Programmer Captain: What is best in life?
Programmer Captain: The lean, efficient operating system, powerful compiler and the feel of wind in your hair as you ride through the Steppes.
General: No! Linus, what is best in life?
Linus: To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women.
They'll probably have monitors, too. Rumors sites like Think Secret have published reports about the soon-to-be-released monitors. So you might not want an old Cinema display to go with that new PM.
Not that either machine is especially loud, but the Dell was more noticeable.
Don't cite this article as some kind of evidence of newspapers' decline. The Seattle Weekly is a free alternative paper that plays faster and looser than Seattle's more conservative (in the sense of maintaining the journalism tradition of focusing on objective reporting) papers like the Times and the PI.
Besides, I don't think newspapers are going down the toilet. Some newspapers report minor circulation decline, but I think that's more of an indication that they are slowly changing from an analog to digital distribution systems. Fundamentally I still think newspapers serve vital and important functions.
I agree, unless of course she is second place.
In another game, I played Protoss and he played Zerg. Again we were out of our league, and were preciptiously balanced on the ledge of victory or defeat and we were both teetering toward defeat. I thought his economy was screwed, and he thought the same of me. Somehow, he pulled out a batch of mutas while I launched a Reaver/Dragoon drop that I thought would be useless. We met, surprisingly, at the same location, and devastated out opponent.
Yeah, we talk about old girlfriends and such. But it's not quite the same as those intense Starcraft games. We talk about many other things too, but not with the same gleam in the eye.
Now neither of us play; he likes poker, I like reading and other things. If I had to do it all over again I don't know if I'd still go for Starcraft, but to deny videogames their rightful place along other forms of entertainment like movies or books is wrong.
It's more likely that, as a previous poster mentioned, you'll find that information forged. But even more likely than that, you'll find a bank in the same countries that allow Internet gambling sites to operate -- meaning the bank will be outside of United States jurisdiction.
Perhaps a few spammers will be found using the method you describe, but the money is big enough that the spammers will evolve.
Yeah, "FictionPimp", I'm sure you did.
Paypal isn't, technically, a bank, but in many respects they act like one. Therefore, I don't think it is unreasonable for customers to expect them to act like one. I no longer use Paypal after a bad experience with them, and have since learned that, as you put it, "They're been freezing/witholding/cancelling accounts willy-nilly ever since they started." That's nasty, unethical behavior; banks once did similar things -- until the government stepped in to regulate them. Since Paypal keeps acting like a bank but without any of the safeguards, I don't want to do business with them, and I encourage others not to either.
I'm sorry to hear that Freenet relied on Paypal, and I can only hope they have lawyers at the ready -- because Paypal only speaks one language.
They are just now growing cold feet...
Three cheers for Canadian Education, as exemplified by IgnoramusMaximus!
I run Win XP Pro because I need Lotus Word Pro and Access, neither of which run native on Apple; but I don't help others support Windows. It takes too much time.
If you look at large public schools, graduation rates aren't nearly as high, even over six years compared to five. The US News and World Report College issue shows a wide discrepency between public and private schools. The online version requires a premium description, so I can't provide a link. The fact remains that, to rephrase the post of the grandparent post: "Hell, most public universities overbook themselves at the undergraduate level on the basis that only 65% of students stay past their first year."