The $5-$6 B in 2000 was just the size of the video game software retail sales market. It didn't include PC entertainment software, console hardware sales, etc.
For the past few years, retail sales of U.S. video games, which includes portable and console hardware, software and accessories, plys PC game software retail sales, has looked something like this:
More like "immature fanbois of Lum's" kicking boy. Lum and I seem to get along just fine.
>I see you can still toot your own horn pretty >well.
Thanks.
>Predicting the end of UO again, eh Brucie?
When did I predict it the first time?
For that matter, I'm not exactly predicting it now, either. Not a firm date, anyway; all MMOGs come to an end eventually. Just don't expect UO to go up to 500,000 subscribers.
Since the article uses my numbers, here are my comments:
Firstly, just to clarify the numbers, while it did have its initial peak of 240K around April 2001, my chart clearly shows that UO actually rebounded in 2003 at reached a new peak of some 250K or more from March to June 2003, and this was confirmed by UO's producer himself ( http://www.uo.com/sept2003nl.html ). So while it's tempting to say the UO has been in decline for over 3 years now, it really has only been in decline for about 18 months.
Secondly, I think the current figure is probably closer to 170,000, not 165,000, and that's what my chart reflects.
Thirdly, I'm not sure where the figure of "the game's population level has fallen by 32.25% in the last 28 months" comes from. April 2001 to September 2004 (the last data I have) would be 27.1% over 41 months. June 2003 to September 2004 would be 32.0% over 15 months, and May 2002 to September 2004 24.4% over 28 months.
Fourthly, before anyone old school fanboi tries to claim that it was Trammel (UO:R) that began the fall of UO, it was not. People who were working on UO at the time will tell you that they were rapidly losing many subscribers due to the unrestricted PvP, and that UO:R is what actually saved UO and allowed it to continue to grow. UO continued to do well until a confluence of events: the release of UO:3D (largely panned), the cancellation of the UO sequel OWO:O, and the beta test and subsequent release of Dark Age of Camelot.
Fifthly, it should be pointed out that something like half of UO's playerbase is now in Japan, so it is not surprising the the gameplay is changing to accomodate their play styles.
Finally, it's my personal opinion that there isn't much that can "save" UO at this point. The game was starting to look obsolete when they cancelled the first 3D sequel, and EA's short-sighted cancellation of the second 3D sequel (UXO) has only served to hurt the Ultima brand even further. Even a full-up 3D conversion of the game would not help it; the data shows that MMOGs, like most every other product in a capitalist market, has a limited life cycle. You can increase growth by expanding into new markets, but once a title is mature and consumers are familiar with it, there is very little you can do to get people to preferentially pick up a copy of UO off the shelf when you're up against a dozen other MMOG titles on that same shelf.
... that this "contest" is like the short story (later made into a Twilight Zone or Amazing Stories episode) where all children have to take a special aptitude test, and the ones that pass are eliminated because they are too smart?
What's next? Will he release the dogs with bees in their mouths so when they bark they shoot bees at you??
Bruce
Explanation of "water that isn't wet"
on
The Year In Ideas
·
· Score: 2, Informative
For those curious, it's not water that isn't wet. It's a water-like fire-supression substitute called Novec 1230. You may have seen it on some of the morning talk shows. It's a carbon-based liquid molecule that looks and feels a lot like water, but you can soak most electronic devices in it and they will still work. It puts out fires just as effectively, but it vaporizes quickly, drying 25 times faster than water. It's non-carcinogenic, it breaks down completely within 5 days and doesn't do any damage to the ozone layer. It's rapidly becoming adopted as the fire supression system of choice for many businesses.
Bruce
>points on left >* When i cut my food, i use the knife in my >right hand - opposite of all right handers, >people who don't know me and see me eat think >I'm a lefty
That's not unusual at all - it's classic American style. You cut the food with the fork in your left and the knife in the right, then transfer the fork to your right (or the reverse, if you're left-handed). In Continental Sytle (just about everywhere else BUT the USA), the knife is always held in the dominant hand and the fork in the other.
I used to use a fork (and spoon) with an overhand grip (like children often do) for many years, almost into my teens, before someone finally thought to tell me I should hold it differently.
If the right opportunity came along, sure, I could see getting paid to do this or similar research, so long as I could still release reports to the public, as you say, on a delayed basis.
So, you're not going to go into them, but you'll mention them anyway because, hey, nothing like a good smear, eh? Last I checked, FurryMUCK is doing just fine. And how many times do we have to go over this? I was not, to my knowledge, banned from LtM. I was banned from SND... you know, by that guy Eldin, who turned out to be a real ass who ran away with all of the site's money? Yeah, that guy. It's ironic that just about every site that decides to ban me winds up dying shortly thereafter -- how's player2player.net doing lately?
As for your question, reader donations go to far more than just the web host. They also allow me to do my research. It takes time and money, and the results are made available for free. I only wound up putting up the donations link when someone actually said they wanted to donate.
Bruce
I've made a couple of slight useability adjustmnets to the pages, including adding a scrollbar to the left frame if you need one. Some people at lower resolutions weren't seeing the whole thing.
Many people have asked if I could break out North America and North America & Europe numbers from Asia. That's a lot harder to do, mainly because I don't have them! I can tell you some rough ideas - about half of FFXI's subscribers are in the US, about 100,000 of DAoC's are in Europe, over half of UO's are in Japan - but that's about it.
So far the traffic hasn't killed the new site. I just can't believe there's that much interest in this sorta stuff!
1. See attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion.
2. Watch C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser gate.
3. Look manly while crying in the rain.
Bruce
FYI, thanks to Slashdot's continued lack of care, my web site will be down for some time due to lack of bandwidth. Whether or not I choose to block Slashdot links in the future depends on their willingness to respond to my pleas.
Firstly, their own FAQ says they call it a CORPG, not a MMORPG.
Secondly, their use of highly instantiated spaces makes it almost a matchmaking service with a 3D graphical front-end. However, we are seeing a similar approach with games like Tabula Rasa, so I wouldn't disqualify it on these grounds.
Finally, without a monthly access fee, it will be difficult to count subscribers. If they give out numbers that include everyone that ever bought the game, it's going to be difficult. I'd need something like a "monthy access" figure ala Lineage to put it on equal footing.
Exactly. I don't mind the slashdot stories or the discussion; it's great stuff and I appreciate the donations and attention it gets. But if you're going to do it, as I've asked before, please provide cache or other links instead. Even after I move to a new server (which I'm still working on), bandwidth is still something I think slashdot needs to be sensitive to.
I can't create data points out of thin air! I can only graph data points as companies release them or I get them secretly from a reliable source. I'd love to have precise figures on a monthly basis for every MMO out there, but you'll have to convince the companies who make them to do that. I'm just doing the best I can to report the information that is out there.
No, you need to read the article to understand the context. The graph only charts the Japan subscription figures; worldwide they are MUCH larger, but I don't have good figures for them and I probably wouldn't graph them anyway.
Bruce
Actually, it takes *more* energy to send a rocket into the sun than it does to simply send it out of the solar system entirely. If you're confused as to why, it's because everything on Earth - including the rocket - is already orbiting the sun at a very high velocity. To actually fall into the sun, you have to fight against a good part of the velocity you already start out with.
It makes it sound like NASA gave up on Hubble, then someone said, "Wait, we've got this great robot!" and NASA said, "Oh, we didn't know that, here's some money, let's save Hubble!"
In reality, Hubble has already been extended years beyond its operating life. Even without servicing missions, it costs money to support Hubble. Hubble was ALWAYS going to be ended at some point.
Hubble already received multiple servicing missions beyond what was originally planned. Before Columbia, they were going to do one more "last" servicing mission (and we really mean it this time), but afterwards, it seemed a risk too great to make, since Hubble should have been ended years ago anyway.
However, robotic servcing was always a possibility, and as the article went on the point out, NASA solicited proposals. And Congress allocated funding. It's not like, as other parts of the article suggest, public outcry forced NASA to change its mind. All public outcry did was get some serious proposals for robotic servicing done, and put a little pressure on Congress to allocate funding for it.
NASA already has follow-on telescopes in the planning and construction phases, and ground-based scopes are now in many ways more powerful than Hubble. This whole issue will come up again in a few more years, when Hubble needs servicing again, but seriously, it has to die sometime.
Slashdot Mirror
The $5-$6 B in 2000 was just the size of the video game software retail sales market. It didn't include PC entertainment software, console hardware sales, etc.
For the past few years, retail sales of U.S. video games, which includes portable and console hardware, software and accessories, plys PC game software retail sales, has looked something like this:
2001 - $10.3B
2002 - $11.7B
2003 - $11.2B
Bruce
>Ah, more commentary from Lums kicking boy.
More like "immature fanbois of Lum's" kicking boy. Lum and I seem to get along just fine.
>I see you can still toot your own horn pretty
>well.
Thanks.
>Predicting the end of UO again, eh Brucie?
When did I predict it the first time?
For that matter, I'm not exactly predicting it now, either. Not a firm date, anyway; all MMOGs come to an end eventually. Just don't expect UO to go up to 500,000 subscribers.
Bruce
Since the article uses my numbers, here are my comments:
Firstly, just to clarify the numbers, while it did have its initial peak of 240K around April 2001, my chart clearly shows that UO actually rebounded in 2003 at reached a new peak of some 250K or more from March to June 2003, and this was confirmed by UO's producer himself ( http://www.uo.com/sept2003nl.html ). So while it's tempting to say the UO has been in decline for over 3 years now, it really has only been in decline for about 18 months.
Secondly, I think the current figure is probably closer to 170,000, not 165,000, and that's what my chart reflects.
Thirdly, I'm not sure where the figure of "the
game's population level has fallen by 32.25% in the last 28 months" comes from. April 2001 to September 2004 (the last data I have) would be 27.1% over 41 months. June 2003 to September 2004 would be 32.0% over 15 months, and May 2002 to September 2004 24.4% over 28 months.
Fourthly, before anyone old school fanboi tries to claim that it was Trammel (UO:R) that began the fall of UO, it was not. People who were working on UO at the time will tell you that they were rapidly losing many subscribers due to the unrestricted PvP, and that UO:R is what actually saved UO and allowed it to continue to grow. UO continued to do well until a confluence of events: the release of UO:3D (largely panned), the cancellation of the UO sequel OWO:O, and the beta test and subsequent release of Dark Age of Camelot.
Fifthly, it should be pointed out that something like half of UO's playerbase is now in Japan, so it is not surprising the the gameplay is changing to accomodate their play styles.
Finally, it's my personal opinion that there isn't much that can "save" UO at this point. The game was starting to look obsolete when they cancelled the first 3D sequel, and EA's short-sighted cancellation of the second 3D sequel (UXO) has only served to hurt the Ultima brand even further. Even a full-up 3D conversion of the game would not help it; the data shows that MMOGs, like most every other product in a capitalist market, has a limited life cycle. You can increase growth by expanding into new markets, but once a title is mature and consumers are familiar with it, there is very little you can do to get people to preferentially pick up a copy of UO off the shelf when you're up against a dozen other MMOG titles on that same shelf.
Bruce
http://www.mmogchart.com
... electrons are always positive!
Bruce
... that this "contest" is like the short story (later made into a Twilight Zone or Amazing Stories episode) where all children have to take a special aptitude test, and the ones that pass are eliminated because they are too smart?
Bruce
... One is the loneliest number?
Bruce
What's next? Will he release the dogs with bees in their mouths so when they bark they shoot bees at you??
Bruce
For those curious, it's not water that isn't wet. It's a water-like fire-supression substitute called Novec 1230. You may have seen it on some of the morning talk shows. It's a carbon-based liquid molecule that looks and feels a lot like water, but you can soak most electronic devices in it and they will still work. It puts out fires just as effectively, but it vaporizes quickly, drying 25 times faster than water. It's non-carcinogenic, it breaks down completely within 5 days and doesn't do any damage to the ozone layer. It's rapidly becoming adopted as the fire supression system of choice for many businesses. Bruce
The sun was out? Bruce PS - Or a full moon.
>points on left
>* When i cut my food, i use the knife in my
>right hand - opposite of all right handers,
>people who don't know me and see me eat think
>I'm a lefty
That's not unusual at all - it's classic American style. You cut the food with the fork in your left and the knife in the right, then transfer the fork to your right (or the reverse, if you're left-handed). In Continental Sytle (just about everywhere else BUT the USA), the knife is always held in the dominant hand and the fork in the other.
I used to use a fork (and spoon) with an overhand grip (like children often do) for many years, almost into my teens, before someone finally thought to tell me I should hold it differently.
Bruce
If the right opportunity came along, sure, I could see getting paid to do this or similar research, so long as I could still release reports to the public, as you say, on a delayed basis.
Bruce
The amount of things you never knew could fill a Beowulf Cluster of Libraries of Congress. Bruce
So, you're not going to go into them, but you'll mention them anyway because, hey, nothing like a good smear, eh? Last I checked, FurryMUCK is doing just fine. And how many times do we have to go over this? I was not, to my knowledge, banned from LtM. I was banned from SND... you know, by that guy Eldin, who turned out to be a real ass who ran away with all of the site's money? Yeah, that guy. It's ironic that just about every site that decides to ban me winds up dying shortly thereafter -- how's player2player.net doing lately? As for your question, reader donations go to far more than just the web host. They also allow me to do my research. It takes time and money, and the results are made available for free. I only wound up putting up the donations link when someone actually said they wanted to donate. Bruce
I've made a couple of slight useability adjustmnets to the pages, including adding a scrollbar to the left frame if you need one. Some people at lower resolutions weren't seeing the whole thing.
Many people have asked if I could break out North America and North America & Europe numbers from Asia. That's a lot harder to do, mainly because I don't have them! I can tell you some rough ideas - about half of FFXI's subscribers are in the US, about 100,000 of DAoC's are in Europe, over half of UO's are in Japan - but that's about it.
So far the traffic hasn't killed the new site. I just can't believe there's that much interest in this sorta stuff!
Bruce
1. See attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. 2. Watch C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser gate. 3. Look manly while crying in the rain. Bruce
Wil,
We used to have your autographed picture up on the wall at Netcom back when you had them as an ISP.
I'm curious if currently play on any MMOGs?
Bruce
PS - Bonus question: What did you take away from your experience with Furry fandom?
FYI, thanks to Slashdot's continued lack of care, my web site will be down for some time due to lack of bandwidth. Whether or not I choose to block Slashdot links in the future depends on their willingness to respond to my pleas.
Bruce
... when biologists make a chimera that can talk and actually ASKS and WANTS to be eaten? :)
Douglas Adams was a futurist after all.
Bruce
Firstly, their own FAQ says they call it a CORPG, not a MMORPG.
Secondly, their use of highly instantiated spaces makes it almost a matchmaking service with a 3D graphical front-end. However, we are seeing a similar approach with games like Tabula Rasa, so I wouldn't disqualify it on these grounds.
Finally, without a monthly access fee, it will be difficult to count subscribers. If they give out numbers that include everyone that ever bought the game, it's going to be difficult. I'd need something like a "monthy access" figure ala Lineage to put it on equal footing.
Bruce
Exactly. I don't mind the slashdot stories or the discussion; it's great stuff and I appreciate the donations and attention it gets. But if you're going to do it, as I've asked before, please provide cache or other links instead. Even after I move to a new server (which I'm still working on), bandwidth is still something I think slashdot needs to be sensitive to.
Bruce
I can't create data points out of thin air! I can only graph data points as companies release them or I get them secretly from a reliable source. I'd love to have precise figures on a monthly basis for every MMO out there, but you'll have to convince the companies who make them to do that. I'm just doing the best I can to report the information that is out there.
Bruce
No, you need to read the article to understand the context. The graph only charts the Japan subscription figures; worldwide they are MUCH larger, but I don't have good figures for them and I probably wouldn't graph them anyway. Bruce
Who the frick do I have to talk to at Slashdot to get them to stop accepting stories that don't use a cache for my web site? My bandwidth is limited at the moment:s criptions.html
http://pw1.netcom.com.nyud.net:8090/~sirbruce/Sub
Bruce
Actually, it takes *more* energy to send a rocket into the sun than it does to simply send it out of the solar system entirely. If you're confused as to why, it's because everything on Earth - including the rocket - is already orbiting the sun at a very high velocity. To actually fall into the sun, you have to fight against a good part of the velocity you already start out with.
Bruce
It makes it sound like NASA gave up on Hubble, then someone said, "Wait, we've got this great robot!" and NASA said, "Oh, we didn't know that, here's some money, let's save Hubble!"
In reality, Hubble has already been extended years beyond its operating life. Even without servicing missions, it costs money to support Hubble. Hubble was ALWAYS going to be ended at some point.
Hubble already received multiple servicing missions beyond what was originally planned. Before Columbia, they were going to do one more "last" servicing mission (and we really mean it this time), but afterwards, it seemed a risk too great to make, since Hubble should have been ended years ago anyway.
However, robotic servcing was always a possibility, and as the article went on the point out, NASA solicited proposals. And Congress allocated funding. It's not like, as other parts of the article suggest, public outcry forced NASA to change its mind. All public outcry did was get some serious proposals for robotic servicing done, and put a little pressure on Congress to allocate funding for it.
NASA already has follow-on telescopes in the planning and construction phases, and ground-based scopes are now in many ways more powerful than Hubble. This whole issue will come up again in a few more years, when Hubble needs servicing again, but seriously, it has to die sometime.
Bruce