...the hurricane has increased the number of articles and reports about hurricanes. There is a direct relationship. I haven't run any analyses on it yet, but my hunch is that we can find a statistically significant result.
But seriously, why write this puff piece? Take a look at this quote form the article: "The bottom line: Nature's wrath on spammers makes for an eye-grabbing fable. But more likely, neither rain, nor snow, nor slashing winds will keep unsolicited e-mail from its appointed rounds." Sheesh!
The key for adoption of P2P is getting it into companies. Like IM, if P2P is compelling to average users, it will weasel its way into corporations. Don't miss the disclaimer: "Finally, EarthLink SIPshare is NOT a supported EarthLink product. It is more than anything else a manifestation of an idea. So if you call our Tech Support with SIPshare questions, they will have no idea what you are talking about. So please, if you use SIPshare, you're on your own." The problem is that this is for geeks, mostly. Until it is easy enough for "average" folks and grandmothers, it probably won't be adopted. So, might be good technology, but not so sure about adoption. We'll see. TWT.
Interestingly, there is a press release on this topic on the Infineon web site. Please note a discrepancy between what the Register says and what their press release says...
Register: "Infineon has agreed to pay a $160m fine to the US government for fixing the price of computer memory from 1999 to 2002, one of the biggest ever penalties imposed by the DoJ's Antitrust division."
Infineon: "The wrongdoing charged by the DoJ was limited to certain OEM customers. Infineon is already been in contact with these customers and has achieved or is in the process of achieving settlements with all of these OEM customers."
So, is the government getting the money or the OEMs. Note that either way, the trickle down to regular folks (i.e., you!) will take a long time.
p.s. I love this quote from the Infineon press release: "Infineon strongly condemns any attempt to fix or stabilize prices. Infineon is committed to vigorous and fair competition based solely on superior products and services."
The main issue with A9.com is that it is not a radical leap forward. It will certainly enjoy the halo of recent media exposure, and it will always enjoy traffic as a result of being affiliated with Amazon.
However.
It is NOT something that is going to drive people to switch. It is some sort of confused search portal. It is another swipe at Yahoo, Excite or altavista. It is another way to search.
The results, and the display of the results, do not offer anything truly innovative. That is, innovative enough for people to say "wow!" and switch.
Thought experiment: Are you going to personally recommend A9 to people you know? I know that I told people about Google years ago. "It's better" is what I said. But it wasn't just better, it was radically better to the point where I would convince people to use it and switch.
A9.com fails the radical leap test. In the dog-eat-dog world of search engines, "better" doesn't cut it. It needs to be radically better...
I like to read about this geek stuff. Understanding the technology is important to me. However, I am most curious about how the technology is applied. What software applications will be better for people now? How does this impact the elderly users? How will the usability be improved overall? The technology is great, but I like to understand the business benefits and the user benefits.
"Scientific testing of physiological and psychological responses, or "mood profiling", could help developers robustly plan which games will be hits."
While I believe this is very interesting I have a hard time understanding how they are going to map mood to design. Some people might be in the zone and very angry at the same time. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Furthermore, this smacks of correlation only, not causation. Determining mood is like checking your horoscope: you might get correlation but is there really causation? Put another way, can you really reverse engineer a mood to figure out what characteristics of a game will be useful for other future games, and in turn, expect success? The causal chain is weak, if you ask me...
Or, is this just a means of generating nuclear material for creating nuclear weapons?
On the topic of growth, I have spent a total of 10 days in China in the last two years. Last year there were more bikes than cars in Shekou in the Shenzhen area, but now I swear there are an equal number of cars to bikes. The real kicker is that these cars are BIG and expensive. We are talking about full-sized Volkswagens, Buicks, minivans, and wagons. Yes, there are Mercedes too. You'd think that they'd be looking at little Euro-boxes given money and space constraints, but status and face (mianzi) are too important I guess.
For a full report, I suggest you take a look at my trip notes:
There is a lot of good research out there on how to use the data gathered form eye tracking. You can test web site designs and expose weaknesses in design, for example. You can also use eye tracking as an input device (PDF). I like that it can tell you what people read on the internet.
Just remember, what matters is how the technology is applied, not the technology itself. Without users, you just have slabs of technology sitting there. People make this stuff interesting.
What is more important, lines of code or lines of quality code? People are always so impressed with sheer numbers. Quality is important.
A similar issue is format and structure. You might do something almost right, but it could be better. For example, you might include dates on your web pages but is the format good for users? It can probably be better!
Numbers are only impressive when they are placed in context of their overall utility. Of course, regarding code, measuring "overall utitility" is no joke. Can you really tell that the code from Programmer A is better than Programmer B.
In any event, keep your eyes open. Don't let "15.4 million lines of code" amaze you just because the number is big. Let it amaze you because of what it means, and what those lines of code do for users.
I want to outsource my liver functions to India, that way I could drink all day and all night and my own liver would be fine.
Any New Technology...
on
VoIP Questioned
·
· Score: 5, Insightful
Any new technology will face the exact same *kind* of issues. Users won't like it because of x, y, or z. The real issue isn't the technology itself but how well the businesses manage it, promote it, and so forth. Similarly, if usability doesn't improve, the issues in the article will become quite real and slow (or stop) any real progress in the market, and that would be the real crime.
What about marketing efforts? What about documentation? If this isn't user friendly (usability is king!) then will this ever take off? What is the market perception going to be? Basically, what is the *business* behind the EyeTV 500? Bombs away!!
Poor design probably is less important than wide adoption when it comes to growth. But that is circular. Growth and wide adoption are really the same thing, right? At a minimum, wide adoption is a result of growth. They are tied together.
So, taking a step back, what elements drive growth? That's the question. Google taught us that popularity matters.
Taking a different step back, I would argue that usability has driven growth. Namely, ease of use. A quote from the article supports this:
"But MySQL's very simplicity made it so small and fast that it quickly won over small users who wouldn't even understand what they were missing and how to use the fancy features offered by "real" database engines."
My final comment about "poor design" is this. Assuming the design is poor, does it really matter? If it solves problems, and if people use it, and it is a Good Enough solution, and if the price is right, poor design is largely unimportant, right?
I'm mainly interested in the SAP and mySQL connection because I simply didn't know about it until I read this. I know it is a bit offtopic, but I recently attended ASUG 2004 (America SAP User Group) and I posted news about it to my site. Perhaps you'll be interested.
Unlike software development via open source usability is something that is not easily done without money. Developers are willing to program for ego, and to scratch the itch. However, usability is not like that. Usability virtually requires money because of the way that it is done.
Usability is much more than doing surveys, or talking to people, or just watching people. That is "street level" usability, as I like to call it. But, it isn't what is needed to Linux. What is needed is a fully funded usability study. It can be done, and done cheaply if done right, but to think that it can be done in some "open" fashion isn't workable.
Consider for a moment that reliable data is needed. To get reliable data, you often need to motivate people with money. The best usability studies pay people for their participation. The payment generates motivation and focus.
But there is more. Usability is a research activity, and it is a human to human activity. When people have to talk to each other, or when people have to observe other people, the labor takes time. That time is not "free" time. It isn't sweat equity, it is real time. Developer time is often hobby time. Granted hibby time will get a lot done, but it can be done cheaply or free whereas usability labor costs money.
Finally, I am confused about the scope of the research. Do we really want research that covers everything, in an unstructured WiKi environment? Not me. I'd rather gather data piece by piece. This is a time to start small and grow over time. Get some little victories first, then expand.
"Mr Grieve is confident the system can be used in the real world."
That is what really matters. There are literally thousands of nifty little student projects created each year. While ideas are interesting, they are cheap. Even the most clever ideas die.
In this case, the students were lucky enough to get some press. That exposure, of course, will drive the idea up the ladder. Still, exposure alone will not make the idea successful in the market. Bravo to the students for getting some free PR!
Linux suffers from similar problems. It just doesn't matter how great it is. What matters, to many people, but not all, is how Linux is adopted in the marketplace. The best ideas don't necessarily win. Product marketing, solid management, planning, quality, and more, all matter.
Today I decided to try to find some music. I visited no less than 5 different stores. I listened to maybe 35-40 different albums using the in-store headphones (yuck!) but I was less than impressed. Album after album sucked, with at best 2 good songs per album.
While I'm complaining here, I have to say that I really don't like the extra material on CDs, and I really can't stand CDExtra. The material slows down my computer, makes it crash some times, and generally is pretty lame. It often autoruns too, which drives me crazy. In short, I am inclined to avoid the new-and-improved CDs even if I think I'll like the band. How do you feel about this?
Earlier today, I was thinking (contemplating really) about how I buy music on eBay or used on Amazon or trade on Trodo. I decided that I like that approach much better than buying from a store. eBay is at least 1/2 price off and often you can even get new CDs for a low price. On Amazon, you can often get a music preview, so there is no advantage to visiting a brick and mortar (do people still say that?) music store. And, to top it all off, I can find music I like faster on the web. I can find recommended music, related music in the right genres, and more. It is easier and cheaper. So, can anyone explain wny I should actually visit a store? (My only answer is instant gratification -- I can buy and listen immediately.)
"...businesses with antiterrorism products for which they are unable to find insurers to provide liability coverage are lining up to seek the Homeland Security Department's seal of approval."
One important side effect of this activity is that it legitimizes the Homeland Security Department. Any time faith and/or judgment are derived from an organization, it makes that organization more real, and more powerful. This is very similar to the idea of demonizing an enemy. If your enemy is vague and hard to define and hard to describe (Al Queda), then you need to find a figurehead to present to the people. It is hard to teach people to hate something vague, but it is much easier to hate a single person, e.g., Bin Laden or Sadam. (It is also very easy to talk about how certain types of people are evil, but I'm getting too far off topic with that.) In any event, as more companies and people talk about the homeland security department, the more power it will have, and the more money it will get.
I'm the owner of Trodo. Please contact me if you are interested in knowing more about it!
john(at)trodo.com
Why issue the press release as a PDF?
on
FCC Goes WiFi
·
· Score: 3, Interesting
Is this press release meant for screen reading or printing? If it really meant for printing, I guess that's fine, but if it is meant for online reading it is stupid to use the PDF format. Jakob has some comments on this topic, if you care. Then again, some people think he's full of crap.
Slashdot Mirror
...the hurricane has increased the number of articles and reports about hurricanes. There is a direct relationship. I haven't run any analyses on it yet, but my hunch is that we can find a statistically significant result.
But seriously, why write this puff piece? Take a look at this quote form the article: "The bottom line: Nature's wrath on spammers makes for an eye-grabbing fable. But more likely, neither rain, nor snow, nor slashing winds will keep unsolicited e-mail from its appointed rounds." Sheesh!
The key for adoption of P2P is getting it into companies. Like IM, if P2P is compelling to average users, it will weasel its way into corporations. Don't miss the disclaimer: "Finally, EarthLink SIPshare is NOT a supported EarthLink product. It is more than anything else a manifestation of an idea. So if you call our Tech Support with SIPshare questions, they will have no idea what you are talking about. So please, if you use SIPshare, you're on your own." The problem is that this is for geeks, mostly. Until it is easy enough for "average" folks and grandmothers, it probably won't be adopted. So, might be good technology, but not so sure about adoption. We'll see. TWT.
Interestingly, there is a press release on this topic on the Infineon web site. Please note a discrepancy between what the Register says and what their press release says...
Register: "Infineon has agreed to pay a $160m fine to the US government for fixing the price of computer memory from 1999 to 2002, one of the biggest ever penalties imposed by the DoJ's Antitrust division."
Infineon: "The wrongdoing charged by the DoJ was limited to certain OEM customers. Infineon is already been in contact with these customers and has achieved or is in the process of achieving settlements with all of these OEM customers."
So, is the government getting the money or the OEMs. Note that either way, the trickle down to regular folks (i.e., you!) will take a long time.
p.s. I love this quote from the Infineon press release: "Infineon strongly condemns any attempt to fix or stabilize prices. Infineon is committed to vigorous and fair competition based solely on superior products and services."
Infineon 0, U.S. Department of Justice 1.
"Hines feels there will be room for both films to exist, as they will be drastically different in story and scope."
READ: Hines knows that he will be 0wn3d by Steven Spielberg and he is leaving himself wiggle room.
The main issue with A9.com is that it is not a radical leap forward. It will certainly enjoy the halo of recent media exposure, and it will always enjoy traffic as a result of being affiliated with Amazon.
However.
It is NOT something that is going to drive people to switch. It is some sort of confused search portal. It is another swipe at Yahoo, Excite or altavista. It is another way to search.
The results, and the display of the results, do not offer anything truly innovative. That is, innovative enough for people to say "wow!" and switch.
Thought experiment: Are you going to personally recommend A9 to people you know? I know that I told people about Google years ago. "It's better" is what I said. But it wasn't just better, it was radically better to the point where I would convince people to use it and switch.
A9.com fails the radical leap test. In the dog-eat-dog world of search engines, "better" doesn't cut it. It needs to be radically better...
I like to read about this geek stuff. Understanding the technology is important to me. However, I am most curious about how the technology is applied. What software applications will be better for people now? How does this impact the elderly users? How will the usability be improved overall? The technology is great, but I like to understand the business benefits and the user benefits.
"Scientific testing of physiological and psychological responses, or "mood profiling", could help developers robustly plan which games will be hits."
While I believe this is very interesting I have a hard time understanding how they are going to map mood to design. Some people might be in the zone and very angry at the same time. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Furthermore, this smacks of correlation only, not causation. Determining mood is like checking your horoscope: you might get correlation but is there really causation? Put another way, can you really reverse engineer a mood to figure out what characteristics of a game will be useful for other future games, and in turn, expect success? The causal chain is weak, if you ask me...
Or, is this just a means of generating nuclear material for creating nuclear weapons?
On the topic of growth, I have spent a total of 10 days in China in the last two years. Last year there were more bikes than cars in Shekou in the Shenzhen area, but now I swear there are an equal number of cars to bikes. The real kicker is that these cars are BIG and expensive. We are talking about full-sized Volkswagens, Buicks, minivans, and wagons. Yes, there are Mercedes too. You'd think that they'd be looking at little Euro-boxes given money and space constraints, but status and face (mianzi) are too important I guess.
For a full report, I suggest you take a look at my trip notes:
China Observations
(How many guanxi points do I get for this posting?)
There is a lot of good research out there on how to use the data gathered form eye tracking. You can test web site designs and expose weaknesses in design, for example. You can also use eye tracking as an input device (PDF). I like that it can tell you what people read on the internet.
Just remember, what matters is how the technology is applied, not the technology itself. Without users, you just have slabs of technology sitting there. People make this stuff interesting.
What is more important, lines of code or lines of quality code? People are always so impressed with sheer numbers. Quality is important.
A similar issue is format and structure. You might do something almost right, but it could be better. For example, you might include dates on your web pages but is the format good for users? It can probably be better!
Numbers are only impressive when they are placed in context of their overall utility. Of course, regarding code, measuring "overall utitility" is no joke. Can you really tell that the code from Programmer A is better than Programmer B.
In any event, keep your eyes open. Don't let "15.4 million lines of code" amaze you just because the number is big. Let it amaze you because of what it means, and what those lines of code do for users.
I want to outsource my liver functions to India, that way I could drink all day and all night and my own liver would be fine.
Any new technology will face the exact same *kind* of issues. Users won't like it because of x, y, or z. The real issue isn't the technology itself but how well the businesses manage it, promote it, and so forth. Similarly, if usability doesn't improve, the issues in the article will become quite real and slow (or stop) any real progress in the market, and that would be the real crime.
What about marketing efforts? What about documentation? If this isn't user friendly (usability is king!) then will this ever take off? What is the market perception going to be? Basically, what is the *business* behind the EyeTV 500? Bombs away!!
Poor design probably is less important than wide adoption when it comes to growth. But that is circular. Growth and wide adoption are really the same thing, right? At a minimum, wide adoption is a result of growth. They are tied together.
So, taking a step back, what elements drive growth? That's the question. Google taught us that popularity matters.
Taking a different step back, I would argue that usability has driven growth. Namely, ease of use. A quote from the article supports this:
"But MySQL's very simplicity made it so small and fast that it quickly won over small users who wouldn't even understand what they were missing and how to use the fancy features offered by "real" database engines."
My final comment about "poor design" is this. Assuming the design is poor, does it really matter? If it solves problems, and if people use it, and it is a Good Enough solution, and if the price is right, poor design is largely unimportant, right?
I'm mainly interested in the SAP and mySQL connection because I simply didn't know about it until I read this. I know it is a bit offtopic, but I recently attended ASUG 2004 (America SAP User Group) and I posted news about it to my site. Perhaps you'll be interested.
JavaScript, DOM, and Page Reloads
Usability Interview with David Clark of TandemSeven
More Observations on ASUG 2004
ASUG 2004 and RFID
Unlike software development via open source usability is something that is not easily done without money. Developers are willing to program for ego, and to scratch the itch. However, usability is not like that. Usability virtually requires money because of the way that it is done.
Usability is much more than doing surveys, or talking to people, or just watching people. That is "street level" usability, as I like to call it. But, it isn't what is needed to Linux. What is needed is a fully funded usability study. It can be done, and done cheaply if done right, but to think that it can be done in some "open" fashion isn't workable.
Consider for a moment that reliable data is needed. To get reliable data, you often need to motivate people with money. The best usability studies pay people for their participation. The payment generates motivation and focus.
But there is more. Usability is a research activity, and it is a human to human activity. When people have to talk to each other, or when people have to observe other people, the labor takes time. That time is not "free" time. It isn't sweat equity, it is real time. Developer time is often hobby time. Granted hibby time will get a lot done, but it can be done cheaply or free whereas usability labor costs money.
Finally, I am confused about the scope of the research. Do we really want research that covers everything, in an unstructured WiKi environment? Not me. I'd rather gather data piece by piece. This is a time to start small and grow over time. Get some little victories first, then expand.
Sure, sure, great idea...as long as you iPod isn't broken!
"Mr Grieve is confident the system can be used in the real world."
That is what really matters. There are literally thousands of nifty little student projects created each year. While ideas are interesting, they are cheap. Even the most clever ideas die.
In this case, the students were lucky enough to get some press. That exposure, of course, will drive the idea up the ladder. Still, exposure alone will not make the idea successful in the market. Bravo to the students for getting some free PR!
Linux suffers from similar problems. It just doesn't matter how great it is. What matters, to many people, but not all, is how Linux is adopted in the marketplace. The best ideas don't necessarily win. Product marketing, solid management, planning, quality, and more, all matter.
Steve Forbes for President!!
Today I decided to try to find some music. I visited no less than 5 different stores. I listened to maybe 35-40 different albums using the in-store headphones (yuck!) but I was less than impressed. Album after album sucked, with at best 2 good songs per album.
While I'm complaining here, I have to say that I really don't like the extra material on CDs, and I really can't stand CDExtra. The material slows down my computer, makes it crash some times, and generally is pretty lame. It often autoruns too, which drives me crazy. In short, I am inclined to avoid the new-and-improved CDs even if I think I'll like the band. How do you feel about this?
Earlier today, I was thinking (contemplating really) about how I buy music on eBay or used on Amazon or trade on Trodo. I decided that I like that approach much better than buying from a store. eBay is at least 1/2 price off and often you can even get new CDs for a low price. On Amazon, you can often get a music preview, so there is no advantage to visiting a brick and mortar (do people still say that?) music store. And, to top it all off, I can find music I like faster on the web. I can find recommended music, related music in the right genres, and more. It is easier and cheaper. So, can anyone explain wny I should actually visit a store? (My only answer is instant gratification -- I can buy and listen immediately.)
"...businesses with antiterrorism products for which they are unable to find insurers to provide liability coverage are lining up to seek the Homeland Security Department's seal of approval."
One important side effect of this activity is that it legitimizes the Homeland Security Department. Any time faith and/or judgment are derived from an organization, it makes that organization more real, and more powerful. This is very similar to the idea of demonizing an enemy. If your enemy is vague and hard to define and hard to describe (Al Queda), then you need to find a figurehead to present to the people. It is hard to teach people to hate something vague, but it is much easier to hate a single person, e.g., Bin Laden or Sadam. (It is also very easy to talk about how certain types of people are evil, but I'm getting too far off topic with that.) In any event, as more companies and people talk about the homeland security department, the more power it will have, and the more money it will get.
"Kids with guns don't shoot cars, Grand Theft Auto and Rockstar Games shoot cars!"
Intel's 'Personal Server': The Handheld Killer? (Sunday, 4-May-2003)
I'm the owner of Trodo. Please contact me if you are interested in knowing more about it!
john(at)trodo.com
Is this press release meant for screen reading or printing? If it really meant for printing, I guess that's fine, but if it is meant for online reading it is stupid to use the PDF format. Jakob has some comments on this topic, if you care. Then again, some people think he's full of crap.