That's actually about how the law is now (in america). You are only liable for unsecured debts which you take after it is clear you are going to go bankrupt.
Student debt is treated differently only due to laws passed very recently in the 1990's.
The businesses are pushing hard but so far only in a few edge cases can you go to jail for unpaid debt.
Our easily escapable debt is one reason the american economy has grown faster than european economies.
Once you completely wipe out in america, you could restart. It enabled americans to wipe out multiple times and take bold gambles. While a majority might just fail, enough succeeded to benefit the rest of society tremendously.
In Europe, once you wiped out once, you were done. It was very risky to wipe out and to take bold gambles.
5 million in 2010 and 2011 instead of the expected 1.7 million.
Enough boomers will retire to completely cancel the unemployment rate by 2020.
Once labor gets the upper hand- it's going to have it for the next 19 years after that short of some kind of wonder automation/robotics.
And 460 million chinese are retiring over the same time period. More than the total population of the united states. Only 76 million united states boomers will retire.
The pattern is this: -2012, about 2.5 million per year retired. 2013-2016, 3.3 million retire per year. 2017-2028, 4.5 million retire per year. 2029-2031, 3.3 million retire per year. 2032+ back to about 2.5 million until the baby boomer echo.
Only 1.8% of people make it to age 90 and I'm not likely to be one of them. I expect to die by 2034.
And there is something else to consider. If you are a boomer and you've been saving- when the second parent dies (likely before age 83), their estate puts you well past your retirement goals instantly and you may be able to retire (well) before age 60. So there is a multiplier effect here.
Actually I do. The CDS's would have had an impact of about 58 trillion dollars if they all blew at the same time.
Now they've had 4 years to bleed that down a bit. Bulldoze a bunch of houses. Unwind trillions of dollars of credit swaps. Change the laws to allow banks to put non-performing loans on the books at whatever value they care to assert.
So maybe instead of a catastrophic explosion which destroys the entire world economy and requires a reset- we get an extended recession followed by a short depression.
I agree with you tho- they've had to print a lot more than seems reasonable. I'm surprised inflation hasn't been worse tho I'm starting to see some scary signs. Some assets seem to be going up 20%+ per year now.
I have a theory that we were in a huge bubble that would have had catastrophic consequences ( the airplane crashing into the sea) and that the Fed's actions are trying to reduce the impact of the bubble before they let it blow ( the airplane taking a hard landing over land).
And in the meantime, the smart money, people with political power, and so on are all manipulating the plan. Some of them may even be trying to slow us down so we stay over water longer (so they can get more peanuts before the plane lands).
I'd prefer to say until the day it's equally tasteful for women to talk about men's dick size as it is for men to talk about women's cunt size.
But in my entire life, I've never heard anyone talk about a woman's cunt size.
A more fair analogy would be when men can talk about the size of a woman's wallet the way women talk about a man's butt then the sexes will be gender blind.
Multiple AC's asked something along the lines: >Inflation is running over 25%. WTF are you talking about? and Inflation isn't running 25%! It's running 2%!
Meanwhile... The Times of India reported... CHENNAI: Salaries of employees at India Inc rose between 12% and 27% in the fiscal ended March 2012, as companies adopted an inflation-hedged approach to increments.... "When the fiscal began, companies talked about high single-digit wage hikes. But, when they realised the consumer price index-based inflation was in double digit, many companies rewarded its employees 100 to 200 basis points over inflation," E Balaji, CEO of Ranstad India, a staffing firm, said.
Meanwhile in China Unit 4 Macro: Rapid Wage Inflation in China Wages are rising fast in China â" many economists believe that China has hit a stage in its development at which demand for labour starts to grow faster than supply, creating labour shortages and pushing up salaries. This is known as a Lewis Turning Point.... In 2009 there were 167 million over-60s in China, about an eighth of the population. By 2050 there will be 480 million, while the number of young people will have fallen. In 2000 there were six workers for every over-60. By 2030, there will be barely two.... a. In early 2012, the Shanghai authorities announced the minimum wage will rise 13 percent prompted by labour shortages and worker unrest. b. The governmentâ(TM)s most recent five year plan states that firms must increase wages by at least 13% every year but in certain areas the local authorities mandate much higher rises.
---
Some of those higher wages have been between 40% and 100%. You can find it easily if you google for china wage increases.
---
There is a developing shortage of labor which has already started. From 2000 to 2009, 5 million people went on social security. From 2010 to 2011, 5 million people went on social security. The figures are not in for 2012 yet but expectations based on the birth rate in 1948 are for 3.3 million people to retire in 2012. We've been having about 2.5 million retire per year. In 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 3.5 to 3.8 million will retire. That's an extra 3.6 million people retiring (lowering the unemployment rate by over 2% right there).
Then in 2016 onwards it's 4.5 million per year. From 2016-2020, an extra 8 million people retire over the baseline. That's enough to take unemployment to 1% or lower.
And the baby boom went on from 1946 to 1964.
And china's boom is larger than the entire U.S. populaton- every man, woman and child.
And there is where yield management rears it's nasty head.
HBO could make 100 million selling their service at lower rates and have a much larger audience. But they can make 101 million selling their service at a higher price and have a smaller audience. And really the best point is where they make 111 million in profits but only have 55% the audience.
Which means 45% of their potential customers are going to be working hard to get the content because they can't afford HBO's product. Some go to pirating... some wait for the content to come out on DVD and buy it. Others wait until a friend can loan it to them or they can check it out from the library. And others pirate it.
And HBO has a right to sell their price as dear as they want.
Of course, once those pirating make it really easy to get HBO's content, then some of the 55% starts sliding-- because they really only wanted game of thrones and they can download that so why pay $12 a month.
So now it's not as profitable for HBO to maintain a high price. And a lot of their potential customers have been trained to not pay HBO.
It's a constant struggle between the directors and stars who want 1.1 million this year instead of 1.0 million and hbo which wants $12 a month instead of $9 a month this year. And the cable company that wants $95 instead of $93.
And the customers, many of whom are not getting raises at that rate right now (but I have hope for 2016 to 2020 being a really primo period for working stiffs).
If songs were 10 cents each, and they kept my license so I could redownload them on any box and there was some kind of reasonable licensing fee like $120 a year, then I would never pirate songs.
If the content is cheap enough, people will buy it and not pirate it because the hassle and legal risk are not worth it.
And the content creators have a right to price the content as high as they want it. If they wanted to, they could sell the series to one person for 112 million dollars.
So it's a constant tug of war between the two sides. Performers have a right to be paid. You have no right to their work. But if they price it so high you can't buy it, then they lose no sales if you pirate it. If it is priced reasonably, then you are hurting them when you pirate it instead of buying it.
I have no problem with a person in poverty (be it social security, or in college, or just flat out broke) pirating material they could never buy anyway. However, someone making a good income should be paying for content.
Sure the H1B's are making similar salaries but the thousands of programmers they interface with overseas are making $15,000 per year.
The good news?
Inflation is running over 25%.
I understand and agree that brilliant genius level programmers are rare and there won't be enough available in the U.S. But that's not a matter of schooling and training.
I worked directly with Infosys programmers from 2000-2013. In 2003, they were mostly masters degree candidates working in bachelor degree jobs. Today, they are mostly sub bachelor's degree candidates working in bachelor's degree jobs. The good 2003 programmers are all managers and executives now in infosys for the most part.
That level of programmer is available in the U.S.
The challenge is this: It is bloody hard to hire people. We spent 16 interviews over 5 months to get 2 positions filled. A company dedicated to IT can turn "on" 2 programmers almost instantly and it can also turn them "off" almost instantly (with no unemployment benefits). So a company like Infosys is like electric or gas or any other utility.
The problem being that infosys discriminates terribly. One hint, they require your high school graduation date on your resume. And that's just the start.
Grats. You are in a golden job- you should be saving a minimum of $20k to $30k per year.
Many IT jobs are not like you are describing.
I'm looking at IT from the outside now.
It's weird- I don't have $5k a month to spend after savings any more. That "money fountain" was nice.
But I feel better than I have in years and I appear to have about $1k a month more to spend than I am spending. And I think I can squeeze out another $400 or so.
I'm sleeping 9 hours a day, reading books again, drawing, cooking, spending about 4 hours a week with my grandkids*, walking about sixty miles a month. I've probably added a few healthy years to my life.
* (this is really key as the older one starts school next year).
IT can be a path to success. But you need to be *really* careful you save as you go. Because it has a lot of bad exits. Especially after you turn 40.
I can probably get one more job as a project manager if I wanted to. Put another $200k on the pile of my savings and quit again in 5 years. But I'd have to give up my life. Maybe after the grandson starts kindergarten. Much more likely to do Habitat for Humanity and a couple hours a week of massage for people with migraines, chronic fatigue, and carpal tunnel/tendonitis.
The three people who died really got my attention. One was not even 50. I saw so many young kids like you with dark circles under their eyes from exhaustion and a couple actually looked like they had black eyes. They were risking their health. And probably shortening their lifespans.
I managed to retire from the field this year after about 27 years in it.
The path I've seen is bad.
Brutal hours, work holidays and weekends, low status, decent pay. Actual early death, lots of divorce (if you can manage to get married).
Last job worked us 70+ hours for 2 years. 3 deaths, multiple non-fatal heart attacks. The free lunch and dinner at our desks was a nice perk tho it dropped in quality and healthiness as time went on. The pay was good (about $100 to $125k) in the south.
Now I hear the people who were not laid off are basically being worked even harder and they don't even have the benefits of being laid off.
If you go into CS, do what i did. Live on half of what you made and save the rest.
Because the age discrimination is blatant and fierce.
1) The police should have a video recorder on their person which they cannot open or alter. Preferably it should stream to an eternal server whenever a connection is available. 2) Any filming by individuals can be compared against that footage.
Watch "Don't talk to the police" on Youtube. In it, a defense attorney and a policemen will both tell you that. 1) what you say "can and will be used against you" but legally can't be used for you. 2) it's only the policeman's memory of what happened which counts. 3) if you are taken into the police station, you should have an attorney. 4) the police are legally allowed to lie to suspects and they do lie. 5) if a policeman says they are trying to help you, get a lawyer. 6) Just about ANY direct statement can be turned into a legal case against you. Even if you are innocent. 7) you may be smarter than one policeman but you are not smarter than a roomful of policemen and they have a lot more experience in the situation than you do.
Police have a job. Maintain order, build prosecutable cases, and write tickets to gather revenue.
All this said, you should donate to the policeman survivors fund (I do) but also be aware there are a dozen other professions who die at a higher rate than they do (including farmers, alaskan fisherman, and coal miners).
If you are the victim of a crime, of course you should talk to the cops.
And unless it was a serious crime, they'll blow you off, ignore the fingerprints on the window, and go about their way.
If it was a serious crime, then they may help you. But if they take you in for an interview-- it's time to get a lawyer because they suspect you of something.
I was robbed of my smart phone two days ago. Stupid crime-- the phone has no sim card slot and was literally bricked 45 minutes after it was stolen. I had a new phone (yea insurance!) in under 24 hours (now that was impressive- I thought it would be a couple days).
I think I would still say something if I was in a crowd of witnesses being generally asked questions.
But if they take me in for an interview, I would no longer cooperate. The fact you have been brought in means they have selection bias against you at this point. Best to get a lawyer.
Slashdot Mirror
That's actually about how the law is now (in america). You are only liable for unsecured debts which you take after it is clear you are going to go bankrupt.
Student debt is treated differently only due to laws passed very recently in the 1990's.
The businesses are pushing hard but so far only in a few edge cases can you go to jail for unpaid debt.
It's a start.
We really need to get back to a situation where if you can hear the radio inside someone's car from inside your house, they should be cited.
If you can hear the music from inside a bar inside your house, the bar should be cited.
How about you let me keep you from getting any sleep for just 10 days.
No, no... the voice module on an enterprise class printer allows you to say
"Make it so!"
A friend of mine's department was sent a lot of spam this week.
So gmail banned THEIR accounts for 24 hours.
I'm not sure of the logic behind that one.
Our easily escapable debt is one reason the american economy has grown faster than european economies.
Once you completely wipe out in america, you could restart. It enabled americans to wipe out multiple times and take bold gambles. While a majority might just fail, enough succeeded to benefit the rest of society tremendously.
In Europe, once you wiped out once, you were done. It was very risky to wipe out and to take bold gambles.
This has been my experience in 30 years of discussions with creationists and then proponents of intelligent design.
Your post is so insightful.
My understanding of the current theory is that we are rarely descended from one person but are descended from a group.
The most significant forebear is the oldest ancestor which was a single celled creature about 3.2 to 3.4 billion years ago.
Boomers are retiring much faster than projected.
5 million in 2010 and 2011 instead of the expected 1.7 million.
Enough boomers will retire to completely cancel the unemployment rate by 2020.
Once labor gets the upper hand- it's going to have it for the next 19 years after that short of some kind of wonder automation/robotics.
And 460 million chinese are retiring over the same time period. More than the total population of the united states. Only 76 million united states boomers will retire.
The pattern is this:
-2012, about 2.5 million per year retired.
2013-2016, 3.3 million retire per year.
2017-2028, 4.5 million retire per year.
2029-2031, 3.3 million retire per year.
2032+ back to about 2.5 million until the baby boomer echo.
Only 1.8% of people make it to age 90 and I'm not likely to be one of them.
I expect to die by 2034.
And there is something else to consider. If you are a boomer and you've been saving- when the second parent dies (likely before age 83), their estate puts you well past your retirement goals instantly and you may be able to retire (well) before age 60. So there is a multiplier effect here.
Actually I do. The CDS's would have had an impact of about 58 trillion dollars if they all blew at the same time.
Now they've had 4 years to bleed that down a bit. Bulldoze a bunch of houses. Unwind trillions of dollars of credit swaps. Change the laws to allow banks to put non-performing loans on the books at whatever value they care to assert.
So maybe instead of a catastrophic explosion which destroys the entire world economy and requires a reset- we get an extended recession followed by a short depression.
I agree with you tho- they've had to print a lot more than seems reasonable. I'm surprised inflation hasn't been worse tho I'm starting to see some scary signs. Some assets seem to be going up 20%+ per year now.
Data will be restricted to edge speeds after 500GB with no overage costs, but can be upgraded to 2.5GB for $10, or unlimited for $20.
I have a theory that we were in a huge bubble that would have had catastrophic consequences ( the airplane crashing into the sea) and that the Fed's actions are trying to reduce the impact of the bubble before they let it blow ( the airplane taking a hard landing over land).
And in the meantime, the smart money, people with political power, and so on are all manipulating the plan. Some of them may even be trying to slow us down so we stay over water longer (so they can get more peanuts before the plane lands).
Oh, I've heard those. But those are jokes not real talk.
I think a woman's weight has more emotional impact on them than their breast size.
I'd prefer to say until the day it's equally tasteful for women to talk about men's dick size as it is for men to talk about women's cunt size.
But in my entire life, I've never heard anyone talk about a woman's cunt size.
A more fair analogy would be when men can talk about the size of a woman's wallet the way women talk about a man's butt then the sexes will be gender blind.
Multiple AC's asked something along the lines:
>Inflation is running over 25%.
WTF are you talking about?
and
Inflation isn't running 25%! It's running 2%!
Meanwhile... ...
The Times of India reported...
CHENNAI: Salaries of employees at India Inc rose between 12% and 27% in the fiscal ended March 2012, as companies adopted an inflation-hedged approach to increments.
"When the fiscal began, companies talked about high single-digit wage hikes. But, when they realised the consumer price index-based inflation was in double digit, many companies rewarded its employees 100 to 200 basis points over inflation," E Balaji, CEO of Ranstad India, a staffing firm, said.
Meanwhile in China ... ...
Unit 4 Macro: Rapid Wage Inflation in China
Wages are rising fast in China â" many economists believe that China has hit a stage in its development at which demand for labour starts to grow faster than supply, creating labour shortages and pushing up salaries. This is known as a Lewis Turning Point.
In 2009 there were 167 million over-60s in China, about an eighth of the population. By 2050 there will be 480 million, while the number of young people will have fallen. In 2000 there were six workers for every over-60. By 2030, there will be barely two.
a. In early 2012, the Shanghai authorities announced the minimum wage will rise 13 percent prompted by labour shortages and worker unrest.
b. The governmentâ(TM)s most recent five year plan states that firms must increase wages by at least 13% every year but in certain areas the local authorities mandate much higher rises.
---
Some of those higher wages have been between 40% and 100%. You can find it easily if you google for china wage increases.
---
There is a developing shortage of labor which has already started.
From 2000 to 2009, 5 million people went on social security.
From 2010 to 2011, 5 million people went on social security.
The figures are not in for 2012 yet but expectations based on the birth rate in 1948 are for 3.3 million people to retire in 2012. We've been having about 2.5 million retire per year. In 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 3.5 to 3.8 million will retire. That's an extra 3.6 million people retiring (lowering the unemployment rate by over 2% right there).
Then in 2016 onwards it's 4.5 million per year. From 2016-2020, an extra 8 million people retire over the baseline. That's enough to take unemployment to 1% or lower.
And the baby boom went on from 1946 to 1964.
And china's boom is larger than the entire U.S. populaton- every man, woman and child.
And there is where yield management rears it's nasty head.
HBO could make 100 million selling their service at lower rates and have a much larger audience. But they can make 101 million selling their service at a higher price and have a smaller audience. And really the best point is where they make 111 million in profits but only have 55% the audience.
Which means 45% of their potential customers are going to be working hard to get the content because they can't afford HBO's product. Some go to pirating... some wait for the content to come out on DVD and buy it. Others wait until a friend can loan it to them or they can check it out from the library. And others pirate it.
And HBO has a right to sell their price as dear as they want.
Of course, once those pirating make it really easy to get HBO's content, then some of the 55% starts sliding-- because they really only wanted game of thrones and they can download that so why pay $12 a month.
So now it's not as profitable for HBO to maintain a high price. And a lot of their potential customers have been trained to not pay HBO.
It's a constant struggle between the directors and stars who want 1.1 million this year instead of 1.0 million and hbo which wants $12 a month instead of $9 a month this year. And the cable company that wants $95 instead of $93.
And the customers, many of whom are not getting raises at that rate right now (but I have hope for 2016 to 2020 being a really primo period for working stiffs).
If songs were 10 cents each, and they kept my license so I could redownload them on any box and there was some kind of reasonable licensing fee like $120 a year, then I would never pirate songs.
If the content is cheap enough, people will buy it and not pirate it because the hassle and legal risk are not worth it.
And the content creators have a right to price the content as high as they want it. If they wanted to, they could sell the series to one person for 112 million dollars.
So it's a constant tug of war between the two sides. Performers have a right to be paid. You have no right to their work. But if they price it so high you can't buy it, then they lose no sales if you pirate it. If it is priced reasonably, then you are hurting them when you pirate it instead of buying it.
I have no problem with a person in poverty (be it social security, or in college, or just flat out broke) pirating material they could never buy anyway. However, someone making a good income should be paying for content.
available to work for $20,000 per year.
Sure the H1B's are making similar salaries but the thousands of programmers they interface with overseas are making $15,000 per year.
The good news?
Inflation is running over 25%.
I understand and agree that brilliant genius level programmers are rare and there won't be enough available in the U.S. But that's not a matter of schooling and training.
I worked directly with Infosys programmers from 2000-2013. In 2003, they were mostly masters degree candidates working in bachelor degree jobs. Today, they are mostly sub bachelor's degree candidates working in bachelor's degree jobs. The good 2003 programmers are all managers and executives now in infosys for the most part.
That level of programmer is available in the U.S.
The challenge is this: It is bloody hard to hire people. We spent 16 interviews over 5 months to get 2 positions filled. A company dedicated to IT can turn "on" 2 programmers almost instantly and it can also turn them "off" almost instantly (with no unemployment benefits). So a company like Infosys is like electric or gas or any other utility.
The problem being that infosys discriminates terribly. One hint, they require your high school graduation date on your resume. And that's just the start.
Grats. You are in a golden job- you should be saving a minimum of $20k to $30k per year.
Many IT jobs are not like you are describing.
I'm looking at IT from the outside now.
It's weird- I don't have $5k a month to spend after savings any more. That "money fountain" was nice.
But I feel better than I have in years and I appear to have about $1k a month more to spend than I am spending. And I think I can squeeze out another $400 or so.
I'm sleeping 9 hours a day, reading books again, drawing, cooking, spending about 4 hours a week with my grandkids*, walking about sixty miles a month. I've probably added a few healthy years to my life.
* (this is really key as the older one starts school next year).
IT can be a path to success. But you need to be *really* careful you save as you go. Because it has a lot of bad exits. Especially after you turn 40.
I can probably get one more job as a project manager if I wanted to. Put another $200k on the pile of my savings and quit again in 5 years. But I'd have to give up my life. Maybe after the grandson starts kindergarten. Much more likely to do Habitat for Humanity and a couple hours a week of massage for people with migraines, chronic fatigue, and carpal tunnel/tendonitis.
The three people who died really got my attention. One was not even 50. I saw so many young kids like you with dark circles under their eyes from exhaustion and a couple actually looked like they had black eyes. They were risking their health. And probably shortening their lifespans.
That's actually completely true.
Automobile accidents comprise half to slightly over half the police deaths.
Part of that has to be putting in douple to triple the miles the rest of us do.
Some of it is driving ways the rest of us don't.
And some of it is has to be driving recklessly (because I've seen it).
I managed to retire from the field this year after about 27 years in it.
The path I've seen is bad.
Brutal hours, work holidays and weekends, low status, decent pay.
Actual early death, lots of divorce (if you can manage to get married).
Last job worked us 70+ hours for 2 years. 3 deaths, multiple non-fatal heart attacks. The free lunch and dinner at our desks was a nice perk tho it dropped in quality and healthiness as time went on. The pay was good (about $100 to $125k) in the south.
Now I hear the people who were not laid off are basically being worked even harder and they don't even have the benefits of being laid off.
If you go into CS, do what i did. Live on half of what you made and save the rest.
Because the age discrimination is blatant and fierce.
1) The police should have a video recorder on their person which they cannot open or alter. Preferably it should stream to an eternal server whenever a connection is available.
2) Any filming by individuals can be compared against that footage.
Watch "Don't talk to the police" on Youtube.
In it, a defense attorney and a policemen will both tell you that.
1) what you say "can and will be used against you" but legally can't be used for you.
2) it's only the policeman's memory of what happened which counts.
3) if you are taken into the police station, you should have an attorney.
4) the police are legally allowed to lie to suspects and they do lie.
5) if a policeman says they are trying to help you, get a lawyer.
6) Just about ANY direct statement can be turned into a legal case against you. Even if you are innocent.
7) you may be smarter than one policeman but you are not smarter than a roomful of policemen and they have a lot more experience in the situation than you do.
Police have a job. Maintain order, build prosecutable cases, and write tickets to gather revenue.
All this said, you should donate to the policeman survivors fund (I do) but also be aware there are a dozen other professions who die at a higher rate than they do (including farmers, alaskan fisherman, and coal miners).
If you are the victim of a crime, of course you should talk to the cops.
And unless it was a serious crime, they'll blow you off, ignore the fingerprints on the window, and go about their way.
If it was a serious crime, then they may help you. But if they take you in for an interview-- it's time to get a lawyer because they suspect you of something.
I was robbed of my smart phone two days ago. Stupid crime-- the phone has no sim card slot and was literally bricked 45 minutes after it was stolen. I had a new phone (yea insurance!) in under 24 hours (now that was impressive- I thought it would be a couple days).
I think I would still say something if I was in a crowd of witnesses being generally asked questions.
But if they take me in for an interview, I would no longer cooperate. The fact you have been brought in means they have selection bias against you at this point. Best to get a lawyer.
biking burns less calories per mile than walking.
If you are going to tax biking, you must tax walking (and higher.)