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Where's GNU/Linux Usage Headed?
deego writes: "Here are the plots of GNU/Linux number of users, on a
regular scale , and on a
log scale . Though projections have no real bearing on what
actually turns out to be the numbers, they are fun :). The final projections from the
two plots would seem to be a bit different to the naked eye. So, is
GNU/Linx usage asymptotically headed towards, say 'all users' (first
plot), or 'half a billion users' (second plot)?"
What can a microsoft peon like myself view a postscript file with?
But before everyone praises PostScript and how Linux users can read it, let's not forget that Windows, the operating system *CURRENTLY* used by the majority of Internet users, has no built-in PS reader.
If you're gonna whine about proprietary formats, do so. But don't lock out those of us who have yet to make a full transition, or have no control over their installed software on the system they're currently using.
And later we'll all realize that *BSD > Linux and then switch.
By "GNU/Linux usage" do they mean the amount of systems where Linux is installed or the amount of people who use the term "GNU/Linux" instead of "Linux"? This greatly puzzles me.
How about the number of Linux users? Are they included too, or just GNU/Linux users?
Wow!
XML causes global warming.
So what are the errror bars on these graphs? It seems likely that they include both asymptotes.
Those who do study history are doomed to stand helplessly by while everyone else repeats it.
Take a look at the chart here: http://www.google.ca/press/zeitgeist.html
That using .ps for an image on the web is just dumb. There are already several standard formats for images on the web, PNG being one of the better ones.
.ps (I have to download it and open it in ghostview, which is annoying).
Hell, I'm currently running Mozilla on Debian and it can't even display the
10 PRINT CHR$(205.5+RND(1)); : GOTO 10
Some time in the early 90's, someone calculated that if the trend at the time continued, by 2020 three quarters of the world's population would be Elvis imitators.
Those who do study history are doomed to stand helplessly by while everyone else repeats it.
mail from "Barry Schnitt"
Mon, 15 Jul 2002 15:49:14 -0700
to "Sean Fritz"
cc
subject Re: Zeitgeist item suggestion
memo Dear Sean,
We continue to update, expand and improve the Google Zeitgeist. Thank you
for you suggestion. For now, I have included the June percentages for
browsers below. If you have any further questions, please let me know.
Browsers
--------------
MS 6.0--37
MS 5.5--25
MS 5.0--25
MS 4.0--2
Net 4.x--4
Other--7
I live in a giant bucket.
Unless your distribution happens to install GhostView by default, which mine doesn't.
10 PRINT CHR$(205.5+RND(1)); : GOTO 10
And beyond that, it's very good at displaying text and vector drawings, because the large solid-color areas that such drawings tend to have compress very well.
Sure, it's not the ideal format to store a vector graphic in for future editing, but for display it's perfectly fine.
10 PRINT CHR$(205.5+RND(1)); : GOTO 10
No, PNG is not "perfectly fine" for displaying graphs on the web.
PNGs are a fixed number of pixels. Hence, a PNG that looks fine on a developers monitor may be unreadably tiny on someone's 1600x1200 display, for instance.
If data can be stored in a vector format, it should be, so that it can be easily automatically scaled to the appropriate size by the client.
MyOS A Threat To The Big Operating System Vendors?
So, is GNU/Linx usage asymptotically headed towards, say 'all users' (first plot),
Yes, eventually all people will be using linx. With it's frame support, it is highly superior to the the older, yet more established lynx.
GNU/Linx usage asymptotically headed towards zero, eventually. Same goes for MSWindows, or any other OS you care to name.
Eventually it will be replaced by something that hasn't been created yet. Or, taking the really long view, you can choose from: "The Big Crunch", proton decay, or the heat death of the universe.
-
- - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
...that since June 2001 (the first month when OS stats were available), that Windows 98 usage has only dropped from 12% (from 55% to 43% of Google users)?
Windows 2000 and XP have obvious benefits over Windows 98 -- stability being the biggest one, but also a true multi-user OS with protected memory, a real task manager, etc. They also run almost 100% of the existing Windows 98 programs.
So, if people won't switch off something as flaky as Windows 98 on to 2000 or XP, what makes anyone think that these people will switch to something like Linux (which can't even promise that your old programs will run on it)?
This isn't a troll... it's something we all need to think about.
The fact that the majority of people using Google are still using Windows 98 says volumes: even if Windows 98 is flaky; even if Windows 98 crashes or gives weird errors; even if Microsoft makes something better that promises near-100% compatibility with their old programs -- people aren't switching. The question that must be asked is: why?
Simpli - Your source for San Jose dedicated servers and colocation!
How about the number of Linux users? Are they included too, or just GNU/Linux users?
Just GNU/Linux users. So people using Linux for embedded applications would not typically be included but people using it for desktop and server applications mostly would be.
People using GNU without Linux would also not be included (with respect to server and desktop applciations this is much more significant than the number of people using Linux but not GNU, of course.)
But Linux is the greatest !
Is it me, or is that logaritmic plot badly fitted? The data points are all above or on the curve. Maybe it's too late in the day for me!
I dug around to find out how computer ownership had altered during that period. The best figures I found were here, suggeting the increase in PC ownership ~10% (i.e. 10-60%). Thats similar to the increase in linux use (41%). A little dissapointing.
Does anyone have accurate figures so that I can amend this calculation in the time honoured tradition (to get the result I want)? It'd be nice if Linux use was increasing twice as fast as PC use, or similar. Mind you, considering most PCs come with Windows pre-installed and PCs are penetrating less geeky markets this isn't such a bad result, I guess.
1- upgrading costs money, most people don't understand the benefits enough to want to spend money on it. (i.e. people so used to Win98 crashing every 2 hours, they just can't comprehend there's a way to stop that).
:)
2- A lot of people can't afford a PC powerful enough for WinXP or Win2k. I, for one, sure can't
DOWN THE SHITTER
http://linuxisforbitches.com
...ever.
where are the sources? where are these numbers coming from? why are there no more than 4 points? are the graphs depicting the same data?
come on, folks!
What in the hell is the function represented by the dotted line? And why is it so far away from the experimental points (I'm assuming) in the log-scale version?
You can't fit a function to three or four points and expect something useful. Not to mention there's no mention of uncertanty anywhere.
Crappy.
Not to say that this isn't a valid assumption, but in ten years couldn't we all just be part of a huge hive p2p network of handhelds? Its possible.
that Amazon.com has the Windows XP Home Edition upgrade for $79.00.
I don't really agree that money is the true factor. I think, to partially answer my own question, that the "good enough" factor kicks in after a while. I suppose at this point people just expect computers to crash once a day (or more). It's a frustrating attitude, but it shows that "more stability" apparently isn't compelling enough to get Grandma to upgrade.
So how do you get Grandma to upgrade? What features of Linux can you sell Grandma on? Or do you just let her keep runnning Windows 98 and expecting it to crash once a day?
Simpli - Your source for San Jose dedicated servers and colocation!
As long as Linux is perceived for tech-geeks, it won't be successful. We need a company like IBM to present Linux as socially acceptable and 'cool'. Only then will it be accepted by the non-pimply faced long haired linux zealots that we all are percieved as.
I plan to install Slackware on it.
I see the proliferation of Linux (and open-source in general) as yet one more rocket booster up the exponential slope of the Technology Singularity. As is typical of such booster phenomena, the growth trend will level out as it approaches saturation. But the the meta-trend of overall technological innovation surfs the waves of many such growth trends; it is the shuttle being repeatedly boosted at a rate of acceleration that is truly exponential. The future OS will bear little resemblance to Linux, but it will surely be open source since only entities that can dynamically evolve over micro-timescales will survive the rush to Singularity. And after that...?
more info @ the link above and Ander's Transhuman Resources
Oh, and with 3-5 data points, you can't really tell if the trend is linear or exponential.
I just switched completely to MacOS X. Why do I need Linux when I can run all of the apps I normally use, plus Photoshop and Word natively? And you can't beat the OSX GUI.
Remeber that the next time you email somebody a fucking M$-Word doc.
My prediction: GNU/Linux users will drop to zero after everyone gets tired of Stallman's relentless whining about the name, and then no one uses the "GNU" part any more. The result is that no one uses "GNU/Linux", and everyone uses "Linux".
"In c) we used the model to extrapolate. The reliability of the model for a prediction so far ahead is questionable..."
Note to M1-ers: a curt but otherwise insightful message is not "Flamebait" or "Troll".
The 1st and most important - I won't use *linux. I'll continue to use FreeBSD. Therefore it will never be all in my lifetime.
The 2nd is the number of people who insist the 'proper name' is not GNU/Linux but just plain Linux. It doesn't matter if both parties are wrong, there exists a large number who don't use GNU/Linux.
Hello? Ever heard of AOL?
Guaranteed that most of them haven't heard of Google.
It's linux, not gnu/linux.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Comment removed based on user account deletion
They show users. Users of GNU/Linux. They extrapolate some numbers that are really not valid so as to show that by some time in the future, more people will be using GNU/Linux. They do. When in the future? Who knows. But they extrapolate very well.
The numbers have no bearing on anything, nor are they real. But they show that some folks use GNU/Linux. Therefore, we can conclude with alacrity that some users DO NOT use GNU/Linux, and also that by definition, they are using something else. This is the REAL power of GNU/Linux - it can be... extrapolated.
Unlike other operating systems, which have concrete data such as license sales, GNU/Linux does not. So it must rely on these charts to figure out that maybe in a few years more folks will be running GNU/Linux. Maybe.
What does this mean? Nothing, really. Do these numbers matter at all? No, not really. Are they real, like, um, pulled from some poll or study? Er... no.
So I therefore ask: what's the point?
And then it hits me - no point. Just another small chance to build up the FUD with the unwashed masses.
-----------
Welcome to #haxxor_chatz
h^xx0r_man: d00d, i saw this chart like, where it said that.. wait.. it said that like, 500,0 billion ppls were using Linux!!!1!!
seXy_p0k3mon: lamer, its GNU\Linux, lamer! RMS said so!!!1!
withe_h4ttz: mann, thats like, more ppl that in like india or chinas???!! ko0l!
h^xx0r_man: ur rigth. M$ suxx!!!!
seXy_p0k3mon: haha _-~#=@@=#~-_
withe_h4ttz: haha
h^xx0r_man: haha
a@lunix has joined #haxxor_chatz
a@lunix: u ahve a crak 4 excel?????
h^xx0r_man: fukc of, lamer!!!
seXy_p0k3mon: haha, lamer
withe_h4ttz: haha, lam3r
I may have been pretty horrible at math but I would feel very confident about walking over and plunking these guys over the head with a big rubber bat for publishing these nonsense plots. Three data points?! Are you kidding me? They obviously freehanded those dotted lines which could have been in the perpendicular direction and maintain the same statistical significance. All these graphs prove is that there are a lot more "gnulinux-users" in 1998 than there were in 1992 and 1993.
...at least two more sample points, one in about 1995/6 and one in 2001 or 2002. And why not at least one every year?
Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing
no text here to see... move along. Move along.
So, is GNU/Linx usage asymptotically headed towards, say 'all users' (first plot), or 'half a billion users' (second plot)?"
Obviously it can't consume every desktop. The rate of change will slow as interest and demand decreases, and will speed up as interest amd demand increases. But the rate of change can't stay constant--the demand for GNU/Linux will eventually stop increasing (as more and more people decide to switch over). It will find equilibrium, and maybe that equilibrium will change over time. One thing is for certain: a graph that represents a complicated economic system that is basically a straight line is probably not a good model or indicator of future performance.
That brings me to my next point. This is a somewhat lame post. The 'questions' answer is obvious, the graphs show no surprises and can be found elsewhere, and there has got to be better news.
Slashdot: Where people pretend to be twice as smart as they really are by behaving like children.
will be an elvis impersonator by 2010.
option 1: The gnu/linux user base does not include the kde/linux user base.. that figure together, had it been plotted might be a bit higher. option 2: The gnu/linux user base the plot is refering to encompasses the total open source user community, including the bsd bodies.
Scientists have shown that the moon is moving away at a tiny, although measurable distance from the earth every year. If you do the math, you can calculate that 85 million years ago, the moon was orbiting the earth at a distance of about 35 feet from the earth's surface. This would explain the death of the dinosaurs...the tallest ones, anyway.
in responce to the negative replys this plot has drawn, i would like to remind you that Linux is free & Opensource,
the masses of China & the rest of Asia, India, Russia, europe and the continent of Africa, Middle-east, Mexico & central & south America have a hell of a lot of people, and since Microsoft wants incredible amounts of money for their OS and computers without the M$-tax can be built quite cheaply, then Linux users are bound to grow world wide, the computers from Dell, Gateway, Compaq/HP, are just over priced- high overhead, just paying mostly for the greedy CEOs big houses and fancy cars & other misc luxurys...
trim the fat of computer manufacturing and use Linux then consumer's computers can be manufactured at quite a low price, there will be no DVD player, and no other fancy addons but they still get a computer & printer with internet connectivity and a modern Linux OS...
so yes, Linux worldwide according to this graph/plot is quite plausable, and with corporate greed and arrogance companys like Microsoft and the big OEMs like Dell Gateway, Compaq/HP are only targeting the wealthier consumers that can be milked for a bigger profit margin...
well as I read it, neither is asymptotic (assuming you're looking for constant asymptotes) The first approaches a linear asymptote, but it's not horizontal, so you could infer linear expansion of gnu users (what is the rate of increase of computer users as a whole?). The second shows a clearly logarithmic asymptote, and for those of you who failed precalculus, logarithmic graphs increase boundlessly. The fact that it is on a logarithmic scale simply shows that it's a linear asymptote on a linear scale (imagine that).
I had to dl the dist. source and erase my gnu-darwin partition 6-7 times before i finally got everything working on my mac :D I consider it my project for this summer. my god i feel so nerdy.....
Do the editors actually believe these graphs have any significance or even basis in reality?
Golly, I wish Timothy would open a bank and base my account balance on his statistics. I'll open with one cent, put in another cent the next day, two more cents the day after, and 4 more cents the day after that. I'll just clean it out in about 40 days, invest in a large company at the beginning of that day, wait for the price to increase by one cent, sell, put back the principal into timmy's bank and close the account. I should be set for life off the profit. (let's see... $0.01 * 2^40 * .01% assuming the stock was worth $100 at the beginning of the day and $100.01 at the end of the day)
I guess it's a little unfair to make such a personal attack on a person I've never met, but hey, it's the internet and everybody's an ass.
Wuhhhhll Hey! Thankya verymuch, ya' byooteelful people. Now somebody fix me a fried peanut butter and banana samwich.... Oh, and a bottle of percodans too.
It has been bought out by a commercial consortium whose job is to kill it. BSD reigns supreme.
...it's headed the same place as Amiga: obscurity.
My work computer uses win98.
95% of my searches are done at work.
95% of my hits are win98/Mozilla
Having said that, I've just installed Mozilla on the sections computers to get rid of those 'accidental' indiscreet multiple porn pop-ups. Most uses don't know the difference, except they like the dragon on loading. hehe
* * Always question "the National Interest" - 9 times out of 10 it is a cover for evil
People are lazy.
If it works just enough, it's just good enough.
They both suck.
Pulled from fortune:
... in the ... seven hundred and forty-two years ... There is something fascinating about science. One gets such
In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Mississippi has
shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. Therefore
Old Silurian Period the Mississippi River was upward of one million
three hundred thousand miles long
from now the Mississippi will be only a mile and three-quarters long.
wholesome returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of
fact.
-- Mark Twain
bits and peace
Nicholas Daley
Comment removed based on user account deletion
At first, I couldn't understand why it was newsworthy to post graphs of x and log x, but when I read that log x remains bounded as x goes to infinity, I realized this is truly revolutionary news.
you don't have to register Win98 and get it activated. Duh. Why switch?
I will stop discussions where I am the featured speaker until the miscreant says, "Linux," instead of "GNU/Linux."
(okay, so it only happened once...and it was my mom)
Is this thing on? Hello?
Now that Apple is shipping more BSD boxes than all the other incompatible fragmented *linux distributions combined, *linux is finally dying from greed and overcommercialization. It time we banded together and start working on the truly free BSD source code again. It has proved commercially viable and lives on in both commercial Unix(tm) offerings like Solaris and AIX, as well as truly free source offerings like FreeBSD and NetBSD. *linux is an evolutionary dead end which has cost the computing world a lot of wasted effort re-implementing what's already been implemented.
Slightly off topic, but when I read this, my weird mind remembered the samurai accountant skit from old SNL. He's explaining performace, which has a peaked graph, up then down. Someone questions that, why does it go down? Belushi takes out his sword and cuts the graph out at the peak. it all goes up. Everybody is satisfied.
67.7234597% of statistics are made up.
having counted Linux users since 1995, I believe I know something about the error factors when estimating the Linux user population.
This guy is not saying ONE word about where he got his numbers from; that's a new low in statistical harebrainedness.
If I could invent my own data points, I could do considerably better than three datapoints, at least. So he's probably using someone's numbers. But whose?
High quality scientific plotting packages dump to Postscript because the output is intended to be printed -- it's for use in reports and journal articles.
However, what we're talking about is the web. You can embed a PNG image in a webpage. You cannot embed a PostScript image in a webpage. In fact, the only vector graphics format I know of that can be embedded in webpages with any chance of your audience being able to view it is Flash, and it's targetted primarily at vector animations, not static images.
10 PRINT CHR$(205.5+RND(1)); : GOTO 10
unfortunately OS-x runs really slow compared to my Gentoo Linux desktop.
So, if you want a fast and reliable OS, get www.gentoo.org
it either "apt-get install" or "apt-cache search" and you'd get more results with "ghostview" or "gv" or even "gs".
;-)
have never heard of "GhostScriptView", sorry
NEVER TRUST MAIL-IN REBATES
Seriously, I NEVER factor a mail-in rebate into a product's price. I've been bilked way too many times since companies' main motiviation with these is to find a way to invalidate your refund. Problems with your address, mailed it late, one piece of information missing? Sorry, no refund.
If anyone has any information on any laws affecting honoring mail-in rebates, please pass them along.
Oh boo-hoo-hooo oh weird ... oh crash boo-hoo-hooo fact is no respectable Lusr gives a crap if WinX crashes every 24 hours - nor should they. Only whiny weenie dweezles got watery eyeballs over a consumer product (WinX) that runs continuously for 24 hours without a refill. Try doing that with a quart of ice-creme or a car, byteboyz ...
This site has much more reliable data
Best regards from Linux user #127040...
-- From Denmark
A hundred years from now, people may not know what a ".ps" file format is.
But I am sure, somewhere, somehow, some machine(s) still runs gnu / linux codes.
Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
Another chart that would be interesting would be one showing GNU/Linux vs. Linux.
Some of us just don't give a rats ass about the GNU part of things.
. Quit playing Monopoly with Bill. Switch to one of many non-Microsoft products today.
That's what we were told in MBA school and I believe in it strenuously.
Linux usage will exhibit fluctuations both up and down.
Oh? you mean complete world dominance? Nah that's just the Ecstacy talking.
Most people don't change the OS on their PC, they just use what was preloaded. It's not a matter of cost, merit, or any of that stuff. Most people just don't change or load the OS. When the machine starts getting too flakey, they do one of three things:
1: Buy a new PC, because the old one is *obviously* obsolete and broken.
2: Reload from the recovery CD, which isn't really the same as installing from generic media.
3: Use the computer less, until/if they get around to buying a new one.
We curse the preloads, because they're behind Microsoft's market lock. But the same inertia denies Microsoft the upgrade revenue they'd like, as well. I suspect that PC makers actually like the flakiness of Windows, because it helps drive new PC sales.
The living have better things to do than to continue hating the dead.
I use Linux. The reason why I use Linux is because it simply doesn't crash and it actually uses the hardware I have underneath it. I had an incedent a couple of months ago where my Cheetah 10k died - drive motor burned out - but I was still able to use anything open... Now trying to open somthing caused errors, but the OS was still running. How is that for stability? Anyway, I am glad that people are still out there running windows. It gives me job security -- really it means that I am at least 6 months to a year ahead of the learning curve. You have to understand: Microsoft stole most of what they have and they continue to piss people off by trying to push out their competitors. The SEC has also told them to stop misstating their earnings... It is only a matter of time before that giant falls over and slays itself with it's own sword. So Windows users, cheers! Keep it up! You are making sure that I am employed when all your little icons get changed out for conf files. Anyway, IMHO Windows is like TV. It keeps you dumb. While Linux always presents new challenges. Even if you are a guru, you can still do things like create a distribution (started this weekend, got it to boot!) or basically do what ever you want. There are no secrets with Linux so the possibilities are endless. Somthing to think about.
Gnu/Linux doesn't exist, it's just richard stallman's cult of personality wet dream.
It's just Linux. Get it right
GPL, patents and copyrights must die.
Freedom for all!
Lies, damned lies, statistics. Linux still sucks choad.
Oh, you mean linux. Silly me. Didn't quite get what you were talking about there for a second.
--
http://cheeser.blog-city.com
It is obvious that the linear plot is better. The logarithmic plot has too many points not on the curve. This doesn't look good. To make nice plots you shouldn't take more samples than the dimension of the curve you want to fit, else you may have to discard some points which don't fit. That's how engineers do it.
;)
(Just in case someone hasn't yet noticed:
He saw some dirty arabs and fired. Too bad it was just some friendly kurds, BBC reporters and his fellow cowboys.
Ooops,
sorry, a little mistake has slipped through, it must obviously read:
"To make nice plots you shouldn't take more samples than the dimension of the curve you want to fit" plus one
He saw some dirty arabs and fired. Too bad it was just some friendly kurds, BBC reporters and his fellow cowboys.
You idiots! Why post such a gay story?! I couldn't have even passed high school Chemistry or Physics with such an inconclusive, lame-ass graph as those posted above. This was a pointless thing to put on a widely read "tech site"! I recommend everyone go read real reporting like The Register.
Linux? Well, even if you accept the doubtful proposition that they've heard of it, it is doomed to be a nonstarter as long as no Linux apps are compelling enough to draw people away from Windows. (Forget Wine and all that. Why go thru the hassle, risk and cost of switching to Linux just to run the same apps you're running now quite happily in Windows? Again, why bother?)
-- Slashdot: When Public Access TV Says "No"
As soon as it is finished gutting proprietary UNIX, watch it level off to some percent. Anyone who thinks that Linux could actually replace every OS on the planet neets to see a doctor.
(10 million people log off and phone their doctors all at once)